1932-33 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dundalk

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dundalk

5.93 points above expected

29 points · 23.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Drumconda

7.32 points below expected

6 points · 13.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dundalk	18	13	3	2	29	44	21	+23	23.07	+5.93
2	Shamrock Rovers	18	11	2	5	24	48	32	+16	21.28	+2.72
3	Shelbourne	18	10	3	5	23	45	26	+19	22.32	+0.68
4	Cork FC	18	10	1	7	21	35	35	0	19.79	+1.21
5	Bray Unknowns	18	6	7	5	19	29	29	0	18.48	+0.52
6	St. James Gate	18	8	1	9	17	39	41	-2	15.42	+1.58
7	Cork Bohemians	18	4	6	8	14	30	38	-8	12.25	+1.75
8	Dolphin	18	5	4	9	14	28	39	-11	17.34	-3.34
9	Bohemian	18	4	5	9	13	24	40	-16	16.73	-3.73
10	Drumconda	18	1	4	13	6	22	43	-21	13.32	-7.32

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Dundalk	29	23.07	+5.93
2	Shamrock Rovers	24	21.28	+2.72
3	Cork Bohemians	14	12.25	+1.75
4	St. James Gate	17	15.42	+1.58
5	Cork FC	21	19.79	+1.21

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Drumconda	6	13.32	-7.32
2	Bohemian	13	16.73	-3.73
3	Dolphin	14	17.34	-3.34
4	Bray Unknowns	19	18.48	+0.52
5	Shelbourne	23	22.32	+0.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. James Gate	3	Nov 26 – Dec 11	1 in 40
2	Shamrock Rovers	3	Sep 18 – Oct 2	1 in 21
3	Dolphin	3	Nov 6 – Nov 19	1 in 18
4	Dundalk	5	Oct 2 – Oct 30	1 in 15
5	Shelbourne	3	Sep 24 – Oct 8	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Shamrock Rovers	2	Aug 21 – Aug 28	1 in 19
2	Dolphin	3	Aug 21 – Sep 4	1 in 14
3	St. James Gate	3	Oct 15 – Oct 30	1 in 13
4	Drumconda	5	Oct 29 – Nov 27	1 in 11
5	Cork FC	2	Oct 23 – Oct 29	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bray Unknowns	7	Nov 6 – Dec 18	1 in 24
2	Cork Bohemians	3	Nov 19 – Dec 4	1 in 21
3	Shamrock Rovers	7	Sep 18 – Oct 30	1 in 15
4	Dundalk	8	Oct 2 – Nov 20	1 in 14
5	Drumconda	2	Oct 15 – Oct 23	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Drumconda	17	Aug 27 – Dec 18	1 in 207
2	Bray Unknowns	8	Sep 10 – Oct 30	1 in 45
3	Bohemian	7	Nov 5 – Dec 17	1 in 15
4	Shelbourne	3	Nov 5 – Nov 19	1 in 11
5	Dundalk	2	Nov 27 – Dec 4	1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dundalk	1461	29	+54	7	6.3	+0.7
Shamrock Rovers	1399	24	+21	7	6.6	+0.4
Shelbourne	1405	23	+37	6	6.9	-0.9
Cork FC	1294	21	-23	5	5.2	-0.2
Bray Unknowns	1282	19	+47	8	5.6	+2.4
St. James Gate	1234	17	+47	6	4.0	+2.0
Cork Bohemians	1100	14	-10	4	3.1	+0.9
Dolphin	1226	14	-32	4	5.2	-1.2
Bohemian	1149	13	-92	2	3.5	-1.5
Drumconda	1073	6	-49	1	3.8	-2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	BU	CB	COR	DOL	DRU	DUN	SR	SHE	SJG
Bohemian	—	0-2-0 2.79	0-1-1 3.71	1-0-1 2.30	1-0-1 2.76	1-1-0 3.34	0-0-2 1.55	0-1-1 1.86	0-0-2 2.13	1-0-1 3.10
Bray Unknowns	0-2-0 2.79	—	2-0-0 3.40	1-0-1 2.40	0-2-0 3.03	1-1-0 3.80	0-1-1 2.17	1-0-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.04	1-0-1 3.17
Cork Bohemians	1-1-0 1.88	0-0-2 2.18	—	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-2 2.20	1-1-0 2.78	0-1-1 1.39	0-1-1 1.36	1-1-0 1.49	1-1-0 2.31
Cork FC	1-0-1 3.28	1-0-1 3.18	2-0-0 3.96	—	1-1-0 3.24	2-0-0 3.57	0-0-2 2.34	1-0-1 2.27	0-0-2 2.87	2-0-0 3.49
Dolphin	1-0-1 2.82	0-2-0 2.55	2-0-0 3.38	0-1-1 2.34	—	0-1-1 3.31	0-0-2 2.24	1-0-1 1.89	1-0-1 1.68	0-0-2 3.23
Drumconda	0-1-1 2.24	0-1-1 1.78	0-1-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.02	1-1-0 2.27	—	0-0-2 1.52	0-0-2 1.52	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-2 2.16
Dundalk	2-0-0 4.04	1-1-0 3.41	1-1-0 4.21	2-0-0 3.24	2-0-0 3.35	2-0-0 4.07	—	0-0-2 3.21	1-1-0 2.93	2-0-0 3.77
Shamrock Rovers	1-1-0 3.73	1-0-1 3.32	1-1-0 4.24	1-0-1 3.31	1-0-1 3.69	2-0-0 4.06	2-0-0 2.37	—	1-0-1 2.71	1-0-1 3.68
Shelbourne	2-0-0 3.45	1-1-0 3.54	0-1-1 4.10	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 3.91	2-0-0 3.97	0-1-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.87	—	1-0-1 3.52
St. James Gate	1-0-1 2.47	1-0-1 2.41	0-1-1 3.27	0-0-2 2.09	2-0-0 2.35	2-0-0 3.43	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 1.90	1-0-1 2.07	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.75	+6.2
Allowed	0.77	-8.1
Differential	0.91	+4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	4.44%	3.89%	2.78%	1.67%	—	16.11%
1	4.44%	8.89%	6.67%	5.00%	2.22%	2.22%	29.44%
2	3.89%	6.67%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	3.33%	25.00%
3	2.78%	5.00%	2.78%	2.22%	1.67%	—	14.44%
4	1.67%	2.22%	2.78%	1.67%	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	2.22%	3.33%	—	—	1.11%	6.67%
Total	16.11%	29.44%	25.00%	14.44%	8.33%	6.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.91	+0.00
SD	1.46	1.46	2.05
CV	0.76	0.76	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	2.22	-0.89
SD	1.50	1.73	1.94
CV	1.12	0.78	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	—	55.56%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.61	+0.00
SD	1.04	1.46	1.41
CV	0.64	0.91	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	33.33%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	2.11	-0.44
SD	1.50	1.32	1.62
CV	0.90	0.63	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.94	+0.00
SD	1.21	1.76	2.47
CV	0.62	0.91	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	2.17	-0.61
SD	1.54	1.72	2.35
CV	0.99	0.80	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	—	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.39	-1.17
SD	1.06	1.29	1.15
CV	0.87	0.54	—
Max	3	5	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	44.44%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	1.17	+1.28
SD	1.50	0.86	1.53
CV	0.62	0.73	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.78	+0.89
SD	1.61	1.22	2.22
CV	0.60	0.68	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	1.44	+1.06
SD	1.72	1.20	2.29
CV	0.69	0.83	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	2.28	-0.11
SD	1.29	1.64	1.94
CV	0.60	0.72	—
Max	6	5	+3
Min	1	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dundalk	1461	29	23.07	+5.93	97.0%	14	18	21	23	25	29	31
Shelbourne	1405	23	22.32	+0.68	63.0%	15	17	20	22	25	27	28
Shamrock Rovers	1399	24	21.28	+2.72	83.0%	13	15	19	21	24	27	29
Cork FC	1294	21	19.79	+1.21	70.0%	12	14	17	20	22	26	28
Bray Unknowns	1282	19	18.48	+0.52	63.0%	9	13	16	18	21	23	26
St. James Gate	1234	17	15.42	+1.58	66.0%	8	10	13	15	18	21	23
Dolphin	1226	14	17.34	-3.34	21.0%	10	12	15	18	19	22	30
Bohemian	1149	13	16.73	-3.73	17.0%	8	12	14	17	19	22	24
Cork Bohemians	1100	14	12.25	+1.75	73.0%	6	7	10	12	15	17	24
Drumconda	1073	6	13.32	-7.32	2.0%	3	8	11	13	16	19	20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+24.44%

Strong Edge

52.22%20.00%27.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge

180 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

086.68500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.56 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.48+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.6

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

36%

Dundalk, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Runaway

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.67 * Some Luck: 2.67 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.34 * Wild Swing: 5.34 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.59 points

Some Luck

03.348

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

Pinpoint

01.574

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Dundalk

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

2.00%

Drumconda

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 132.24

1.74

Moderate Separation

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

77%

Wide Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Clear Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

52%

Some Drama

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.44

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.17

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.71

Near-Lock

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

13%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.43

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.38

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.138

Well Within Noise

00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dundalk	36.00%	28.00%	16.00%	11.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	2.00%	—	—
Shamrock Rovers	16.00%	28.00%	14.00%	18.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Shelbourne	33.00%	19.00%	18.00%	12.00%	7.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—
Cork FC	10.00%	11.00%	19.00%	12.00%	11.00%	14.00%	15.00%	3.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Bray Unknowns	2.00%	7.00%	12.00%	19.00%	19.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	2.00%	—
St. James Gate	—	1.00%	7.00%	6.00%	12.00%	15.00%	6.00%	21.00%	18.00%	14.00%
Cork Bohemians	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	12.00%	13.00%	24.00%	41.00%
Dolphin	2.00%	1.00%	7.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	23.00%	15.00%	10.00%	3.00%
Bohemian	1.00%	4.00%	7.00%	5.00%	17.00%	17.00%	15.00%	11.00%	15.00%	8.00%
Drumconda	—	—	—	2.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	19.00%	25.00%	33.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Bohemian	100%
Bray Unknowns	100%
Cork Bohemians	100%
Cork FC	100%
Dolphin	100%
Drumconda	100%
Dundalk	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Shelbourne	100%
St. James Gate	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1932-08-20	Dundalk	D 1-1	53.9	1248	1323	48.07%	21.20%	30.73%	+0.07	-1.3	1
1932-08-20	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.9	1323	1248	30.73%	21.20%	48.07%	-0.07	+1.3	1
1932-08-20	Cork FC	W 5-1	33.8	1300	1329	53.55%	21.15%	25.29%	+0.32	+28.1	2
1932-08-20	@ Shelbourne	L 1-5	33.8	1329	1300	25.29%	21.15%	53.55%	-0.32	-28.1	0
1932-08-21	Bohemian	W 3-1	42.8	1120	1287	35.24%	21.12%	43.63%	-0.45	+23.9	2
1932-08-21	@ Cork Bohemians	L 1-3	42.8	1287	1120	43.63%	21.12%	35.24%	+0.45	-23.9	0
1932-08-21	Dolphin	W 2-1	43.4	1208	1297	46.06%	21.21%	32.74%	-0.02	+11.0	2
1932-08-21	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	43.4	1297	1208	32.74%	21.21%	46.06%	+0.02	-11.0	0
1932-08-21	St. James Gate	L 1-3	50.5	1331	1179	69.21%	20.35%	10.45%	+1.32	-37.1	0
1932-08-21	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 3-1	50.5	1179	1331	10.45%	20.35%	69.21%	-1.32	+37.0	2
1932-08-27	Drumconda	W 3-1	33.9	1328	1219	66.39%	20.62%	12.99%	+1.09	+8.6	4
1932-08-27	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	33.9	1219	1328	12.99%	20.62%	66.39%	-1.09	-8.6	2
1932-08-28	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-2	46.6	1247	1294	51.54%	21.18%	27.28%	+0.22	+9.0	3
1932-08-28	@ Bray Unknowns	L 2-3	46.6	1294	1247	27.28%	21.18%	51.54%	-0.22	-9.0	0
1932-08-28	Bohemian	W 2-0	31.2	1301	1263	60.54%	20.96%	18.50%	+0.69	+13.6	2
1932-08-28	@ Cork FC	L 0-2	31.2	1263	1301	18.50%	20.96%	60.54%	-0.69	-13.6	0
1932-08-28	Dundalk	L 0-2	41.8	1286	1324	52.63%	21.16%	26.20%	+0.27	-32.6	0
1932-08-28	@ Dolphin	W 2-0	41.8	1324	1286	26.20%	21.16%	52.63%	-0.27	+32.6	3
1932-08-28	Cork Bohemians	D 1-1	53.4	1216	1144	63.57%	20.81%	15.62%	+0.88	-3.8	3
1932-08-28	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	53.4	1144	1216	15.62%	20.81%	63.57%	-0.88	+3.8	3
1932-09-04	St. James Gate	W 3-2	43.6	1250	1212	60.55%	20.96%	18.49%	+0.69	+6.4	2
1932-09-04	@ Bohemian	L 2-3	43.6	1212	1250	18.49%	20.96%	60.55%	-0.69	-6.4	3
1932-09-04	Bray Unknowns	L 3-4	54.8	1147	1256	43.53%	21.20%	35.26%	-0.12	-12.8	3
1932-09-04	@ Cork Bohemians	W 4-3	54.8	1256	1147	35.26%	21.20%	43.53%	+0.12	+12.8	5
1932-09-04	Shelbourne	W 3-0	29.6	1357	1336	58.88%	21.02%	20.09%	+0.59	+21.2	5
1932-09-04	@ Dundalk	L 0-3	29.6	1336	1357	20.09%	21.02%	58.88%	-0.59	-21.2	4
1932-09-04	Cork FC	L 1-3	43.3	1210	1315	44.06%	21.21%	34.73%	-0.10	-24.1	2
1932-09-04	@ Drumconda	W 3-1	43.3	1315	1210	34.73%	21.21%	44.06%	+0.10	+24.1	4
1932-09-04	Dolphin	W 4-2	40.2	1285	1254	59.89%	20.99%	19.12%	+0.65	+10.8	2
1932-09-04	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-4	40.2	1254	1285	19.12%	20.99%	59.89%	-0.65	-10.8	0
1932-09-10	Bohemian	D 0-0	50.6	1269	1256	58.09%	21.05%	20.86%	+0.55	-3.2	6
1932-09-10	@ Bray Unknowns	D 0-0	50.6	1256	1269	20.86%	21.05%	58.09%	-0.55	+3.2	3
1932-09-10	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	32.0	1315	1295	58.81%	21.02%	20.16%	+0.59	+14.6	6
1932-09-10	@ Shelbourne	L 0-2	32.0	1295	1315	20.16%	21.02%	58.81%	-0.59	-14.6	2
1932-09-11	St. James Gate	W 4-1	30.4	1339	1206	68.03%	20.47%	11.50%	+1.22	+10.8	6
1932-09-11	@ Cork FC	L 1-4	30.4	1206	1339	11.50%	20.47%	68.03%	-1.22	-10.8	3
1932-09-11	Cork Bohemians	W 2-0	28.9	1243	1135	66.35%	20.62%	13.03%	+1.08	+9.9	2
1932-09-11	@ Dolphin	L 0-2	28.9	1135	1243	13.03%	20.62%	66.35%	-1.08	-9.9	3
1932-09-11	Dundalk	L 1-3	39.8	1186	1378	32.01%	21.06%	46.93%	-0.58	-18.6	2
1932-09-11	@ Drumconda	W 3-1	39.8	1378	1186	46.93%	21.06%	32.01%	+0.58	+18.6	7
1932-09-17	Dolphin	W 1-0	36.0	1259	1253	57.49%	21.07%	21.45%	+0.52	+8.2	5
1932-09-17	@ Bohemian	L 0-1	36.0	1253	1259	21.45%	21.07%	57.49%	-0.52	-8.2	2
1932-09-17	Cork FC	W 1-0	36.9	1396	1350	61.38%	20.92%	17.70%	+0.74	+6.9	9
1932-09-17	@ Dundalk	L 0-1	36.9	1350	1396	17.70%	20.92%	61.38%	-0.74	-6.9	6
1932-09-18	Shelbourne	W 4-3	56.3	1125	1330	30.34%	21.02%	48.65%	-0.66	+14.0	5
1932-09-18	@ Cork Bohemians	L 3-4	56.3	1330	1125	48.65%	21.02%	30.34%	+0.66	-14.0	6
1932-09-18	Drumconda	W 5-1	29.0	1281	1167	66.71%	20.59%	12.70%	+1.11	+15.3	4
1932-09-18	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-5	29.0	1167	1281	12.70%	20.59%	66.71%	-1.11	-15.3	2
1932-09-18	Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	42.5	1195	1266	48.56%	21.20%	30.23%	+0.09	+10.3	5
1932-09-18	@ St. James Gate	L 1-2	42.5	1266	1195	30.23%	21.20%	48.56%	-0.09	-10.3	6
1932-09-24	Bohemian	W 4-0	26.7	1316	1268	61.49%	20.92%	17.59%	+0.75	+24.6	8
1932-09-24	@ Shelbourne	L 0-4	26.7	1268	1316	17.59%	20.92%	61.49%	-0.75	-24.7	5
1932-09-25	Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	38.2	1343	1255	64.78%	20.74%	14.48%	+0.97	+5.5	8
1932-09-25	@ Cork FC	L 1-2	38.2	1255	1343	14.48%	20.74%	64.78%	-0.97	-5.5	6
1932-09-25	St. James Gate	L 0-3	40.3	1245	1205	60.73%	20.95%	18.32%	+0.70	-54.3	2
1932-09-25	@ Dolphin	W 3-0	40.3	1205	1245	18.32%	20.95%	60.73%	-0.70	+54.3	7
1932-09-25	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	46.6	1403	1296	66.26%	20.63%	13.12%	+1.07	-40.9	9
1932-09-25	@ Dundalk	W 2-0	46.6	1296	1403	13.12%	20.63%	66.26%	-1.07	+40.9	6
1932-09-25	Cork Bohemians	D 3-3	62.2	1152	1139	58.17%	21.05%	20.78%	+0.55	-1.8	3
1932-09-25	@ Drumconda	D 3-3	62.2	1139	1152	20.78%	21.05%	58.17%	-0.55	+1.8	6
1932-10-01	Drumconda	W 1-0	33.4	1243	1150	65.20%	20.71%	14.10%	+1.00	+5.7	7
1932-10-01	@ Bohemian	L 0-1	33.4	1150	1243	14.10%	20.71%	65.20%	-1.00	-5.7	3
1932-10-01	Shelbourne	L 2-5	45.4	1260	1340	47.25%	21.21%	31.54%	+0.03	-31.4	7
1932-10-01	@ St. James Gate	W 5-2	45.4	1340	1260	31.54%	21.21%	47.25%	-0.03	+31.4	10
1932-10-02	Dolphin	D 2-2	58.1	1250	1191	62.48%	20.87%	16.65%	+0.81	-2.7	7
1932-10-02	@ Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	58.1	1191	1250	16.65%	20.87%	62.48%	-0.81	+2.7	3
1932-10-02	Dundalk	L 0-1	38.0	1141	1362	28.25%	20.96%	50.80%	-0.75	-10.3	6
1932-10-02	@ Cork Bohemians	W 1-0	38.0	1362	1141	50.80%	20.96%	28.25%	+0.75	+10.3	11
1932-10-02	Cork FC	W 5-1	33.7	1337	1348	55.62%	21.11%	23.27%	+0.42	+26.2	8
1932-10-02	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-5	33.7	1348	1337	23.27%	21.11%	55.62%	-0.42	-26.2	8
1932-10-08	Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	37.6	1372	1247	67.47%	20.52%	12.01%	+1.17	+4.6	12
1932-10-08	@ Shelbourne	L 1-2	37.6	1247	1372	12.01%	20.52%	67.47%	-1.17	-4.6	7
1932-10-09	Dolphin	W 3-0	25.7	1322	1193	67.75%	20.50%	11.75%	+1.19	+13.1	10
1932-10-09	@ Cork FC	L 0-3	25.7	1193	1322	11.75%	20.50%	67.75%	-1.19	-13.1	3
1932-10-09	Bohemian	W 4-2	38.4	1373	1249	67.43%	20.53%	12.04%	+1.17	+7.1	13
1932-10-09	@ Dundalk	L 2-4	38.4	1249	1373	12.04%	20.53%	67.43%	-1.17	-7.1	7
1932-10-09	St. James Gate	L 1-2	47.3	1145	1228	46.88%	21.21%	31.91%	+0.02	-14.7	3
1932-10-09	@ Drumconda	W 2-1	47.3	1228	1145	31.91%	21.21%	46.88%	-0.02	+14.7	9
1932-10-09	Cork Bohemians	D 1-1	54.0	1363	1130	73.44%	19.71%	6.85%	+1.77	-5.5	9
1932-10-09	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	54.0	1130	1363	6.85%	19.71%	73.44%	-1.77	+5.5	7
1932-10-15	Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	51.5	1242	1358	42.47%	21.20%	36.33%	-0.16	-12.8	7
1932-10-15	@ Bohemian	W 3-2	51.5	1358	1242	36.33%	21.20%	42.47%	+0.16	+12.8	11
1932-10-15	Drumconda	D 3-3	62.4	1243	1130	66.65%	20.60%	12.76%	+1.11	-2.7	8
1932-10-15	@ Bray Unknowns	D 3-3	62.4	1130	1243	12.76%	20.60%	66.65%	-1.11	+2.7	4
1932-10-15	Shelbourne	W 3-1	44.4	1180	1376	31.45%	21.05%	47.51%	-0.61	+25.7	5
1932-10-15	@ Dolphin	L 1-3	44.4	1376	1180	47.51%	21.05%	31.45%	+0.61	-25.7	12
1932-10-15	Dundalk	L 2-3	50.8	1243	1380	39.53%	21.18%	39.29%	-0.28	-12.1	9
1932-10-15	@ St. James Gate	W 3-2	50.8	1380	1243	39.29%	21.18%	39.53%	+0.28	+12.1	15
1932-10-16	Cork FC	L 1-2	42.7	1136	1335	31.04%	21.04%	47.92%	-0.62	-10.5	7
1932-10-16	@ Cork Bohemians	W 2-1	42.7	1335	1136	47.92%	21.04%	31.04%	+0.62	+10.5	12
1932-10-22	Cork Bohemians	D 0-0	50.3	1229	1125	65.99%	20.65%	13.36%	+1.05	-4.7	8
1932-10-22	@ Bohemian	D 0-0	50.3	1125	1229	13.36%	20.65%	65.99%	-1.05	+4.7	8
1932-10-22	Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	37.1	1392	1240	69.23%	20.34%	10.43%	+1.32	+4.0	17
1932-10-22	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	37.1	1240	1392	10.43%	20.34%	69.23%	-1.32	-4.0	8
1932-10-23	Shelbourne	L 1-2	51.8	1346	1351	56.28%	21.10%	22.62%	+0.45	-17.3	12
1932-10-23	@ Cork FC	W 2-1	51.8	1351	1346	22.62%	21.10%	56.28%	-0.45	+17.4	14
1932-10-23	Drumconda	D 0-0	50.2	1206	1133	63.65%	20.81%	15.54%	+0.89	-4.2	6
1932-10-23	@ Dolphin	D 0-0	50.2	1133	1206	15.54%	20.81%	63.65%	-0.89	+4.2	5
1932-10-23	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	42.2	1231	1371	39.13%	21.17%	39.69%	-0.29	-21.9	9
1932-10-23	@ St. James Gate	W 3-1	42.2	1371	1231	39.69%	21.17%	39.13%	+0.29	+21.9	13
1932-10-29	Cork FC	W 4-1	37.6	1224	1328	44.12%	21.21%	34.67%	-0.10	+28.1	10
1932-10-29	@ Bohemian	L 1-4	37.6	1328	1224	34.67%	21.21%	44.12%	+0.10	-28.1	12
1932-10-29	Shelbourne	L 0-1	37.7	1137	1368	27.14%	20.92%	51.94%	-0.80	-10.0	5
1932-10-29	@ Drumconda	W 1-0	37.7	1368	1137	51.94%	20.92%	27.14%	+0.80	+9.9	16
1932-10-30	St. James Gate	W 4-2	43.4	1130	1209	47.49%	21.21%	31.30%	+0.04	+16.4	10
1932-10-30	@ Cork Bohemians	L 2-4	43.4	1209	1130	31.30%	21.21%	47.49%	-0.04	-16.4	9
1932-10-30	Dolphin	W 5-2	33.3	1396	1202	71.59%	20.03%	8.38%	+1.56	+6.9	19
1932-10-30	@ Dundalk	L 2-5	33.3	1202	1396	8.38%	20.03%	71.59%	-1.56	-6.9	6
1932-10-30	Bray Unknowns	W 6-2	31.8	1392	1236	69.50%	20.31%	10.19%	+1.35	+10.6	15
1932-10-30	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-6	31.8	1236	1392	10.19%	20.31%	69.50%	-1.35	-10.6	8
1932-11-05	Dundalk	D 2-2	60.9	1378	1403	54.07%	21.14%	24.79%	+0.34	-1.6	17
1932-11-05	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	60.9	1403	1378	24.79%	21.14%	54.07%	-0.34	+1.6	20
1932-11-05	Bohemian	W 6-5	53.4	1192	1252	49.94%	21.19%	28.87%	+0.15	+9.0	11
1932-11-05	@ St. James Gate	L 5-6	53.4	1252	1192	28.87%	21.19%	49.94%	-0.15	-9.0	10
1932-11-06	Cork Bohemians	W 1-0	33.7	1225	1146	64.11%	20.78%	15.11%	+0.92	+6.0	10
1932-11-06	@ Bray Unknowns	L 0-1	33.7	1146	1225	15.11%	20.78%	64.11%	-0.92	-6.0	10
1932-11-06	Drumconda	W 4-3	44.2	1300	1127	70.46%	20.19%	9.35%	+1.44	+3.4	14
1932-11-06	@ Cork FC	L 3-4	44.2	1127	1300	9.35%	20.19%	70.46%	-1.44	-3.4	5
1932-11-06	Shamrock Rovers	W 5-2	45.8	1195	1403	29.90%	21.01%	49.09%	-0.67	+32.4	8
1932-11-06	@ Dolphin	L 2-5	45.8	1403	1195	49.09%	21.01%	29.90%	+0.67	-32.4	15
1932-11-12	Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.5	1243	1231	58.05%	21.05%	20.90%	+0.55	-2.8	11
1932-11-12	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	53.5	1231	1243	20.90%	21.05%	58.05%	-0.55	+2.8	11
1932-11-12	Shelbourne	W 3-2	47.2	1371	1376	56.21%	21.10%	22.69%	+0.45	+7.7	17
1932-11-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	47.2	1376	1371	22.69%	21.10%	56.21%	-0.45	-7.7	17
1932-11-13	Dolphin	L 2-5	44.4	1140	1227	46.48%	21.21%	32.32%	+0.00	-30.9	10
1932-11-13	@ Cork Bohemians	W 5-2	44.4	1227	1140	32.32%	21.21%	46.48%	+0.00	+30.9	10
1932-11-13	Drumconda	W 2-1	34.7	1405	1123	75.42%	19.26%	5.32%	+2.04	+2.1	22
1932-11-13	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	34.7	1123	1405	5.32%	19.26%	75.42%	-2.04	-2.1	5
1932-11-13	Cork FC	L 1-2	46.9	1201	1303	44.42%	21.21%	34.38%	-0.08	-14.0	11
1932-11-13	@ St. James Gate	W 2-1	46.9	1303	1201	34.38%	21.21%	44.42%	+0.08	+14.0	16
1932-11-19	Bohemian	W 2-0	31.5	1258	1240	58.61%	21.03%	20.36%	+0.58	+14.8	12
1932-11-19	@ Dolphin	L 0-2	31.5	1240	1258	20.36%	21.03%	58.61%	-0.58	-14.8	11
1932-11-19	Cork Bohemians	D 2-2	58.6	1369	1109	74.56%	19.47%	5.97%	+1.92	-4.2	18
1932-11-19	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	58.6	1109	1369	5.97%	19.47%	74.56%	-1.92	+4.2	11
1932-11-20	St. James Gate	W 2-1	38.6	1234	1187	61.37%	20.92%	17.70%	+0.74	+6.5	13
1932-11-20	@ Bray Unknowns	L 1-2	38.6	1187	1234	17.70%	20.92%	61.37%	-0.74	-6.5	11
1932-11-20	Dundalk	L 2-5	46.3	1317	1407	46.14%	21.21%	32.65%	-0.01	-30.7	16
1932-11-20	@ Cork FC	W 5-2	46.3	1407	1317	32.65%	21.21%	46.14%	+0.01	+30.7	24
1932-11-20	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	32.6	1121	1378	24.23%	20.81%	54.97%	-0.94	-17.0	5
1932-11-20	@ Drumconda	W 2-0	32.6	1378	1121	54.97%	20.81%	24.23%	+0.94	+17.0	19
1932-11-26	Shelbourne	L 0-4	33.3	1226	1364	39.28%	21.18%	39.54%	-0.29	-48.1	11
1932-11-26	@ Bohemian	W 4-0	33.3	1364	1226	39.54%	21.18%	39.28%	+0.29	+48.1	20
1932-11-26	Dolphin	W 4-1	36.8	1181	1273	45.80%	21.21%	33.00%	-0.03	+27.0	13
1932-11-26	@ St. James Gate	L 1-4	36.8	1273	1181	33.00%	21.21%	45.80%	+0.03	-27.0	12
1932-11-27	Cork FC	W 3-0	30.6	1241	1287	51.60%	21.18%	27.22%	+0.22	+27.4	15
1932-11-27	@ Bray Unknowns	L 0-3	30.6	1287	1241	27.22%	21.18%	51.60%	-0.22	-27.4	16
1932-11-27	Drumconda	W 4-2	40.3	1114	1104	57.78%	21.06%	21.16%	+0.53	+11.8	13
1932-11-27	@ Cork Bohemians	L 2-4	40.3	1104	1114	21.16%	21.06%	57.78%	-0.53	-11.8	5
1932-11-27	Dundalk	W 2-1	45.5	1395	1437	52.10%	21.17%	26.73%	+0.25	+9.3	21
1932-11-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	45.5	1437	1395	26.73%	21.17%	52.10%	-0.25	-9.3	24
1932-12-03	Bohemian	D 2-2	57.7	1093	1178	46.70%	21.21%	32.10%	+0.01	-0.8	6
1932-12-03	@ Drumconda	D 2-2	57.7	1178	1093	32.10%	21.21%	46.70%	-0.01	+0.8	12
1932-12-03	St. James Gate	L 0-1	51.5	1412	1208	72.10%	19.95%	7.95%	+1.61	-23.7	20
1932-12-03	@ Shelbourne	W 1-0	51.5	1208	1412	7.95%	19.95%	72.10%	-1.61	+23.7	15
1932-12-04	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-1	43.2	1259	1405	38.34%	21.17%	40.49%	-0.33	+22.5	18
1932-12-04	@ Cork FC	L 1-3	43.2	1405	1259	40.49%	21.17%	38.34%	+0.33	-22.5	21
1932-12-04	Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.6	1246	1268	54.37%	21.14%	24.49%	+0.36	-2.2	13
1932-12-04	@ Dolphin	D 1-1	53.6	1268	1246	24.49%	21.14%	54.37%	-0.36	+2.2	16
1932-12-04	Cork Bohemians	D 1-1	54.4	1428	1125	76.20%	19.04%	4.75%	+2.16	-5.9	25
1932-12-04	@ Dundalk	D 1-1	54.4	1125	1428	4.75%	19.04%	76.20%	-2.16	+5.9	14
1932-12-10	Dundalk	L 0-4	29.2	1178	1422	25.68%	20.87%	53.45%	-0.87	-34.0	12
1932-12-10	@ Bohemian	W 4-0	29.2	1422	1178	53.45%	20.87%	25.68%	+0.87	+34.0	27
1932-12-11	Shelbourne	D 1-1	54.6	1270	1389	42.14%	21.20%	36.66%	-0.18	-0.4	17
1932-12-11	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	54.6	1389	1270	36.66%	21.20%	42.14%	+0.18	+0.4	21
1932-12-11	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	34.4	1131	1382	24.91%	20.84%	54.26%	-0.91	-21.4	14
1932-12-11	@ Cork Bohemians	W 4-1	34.4	1382	1131	54.26%	20.84%	24.91%	+0.91	+21.4	23
1932-12-11	Cork FC	D 1-1	53.7	1243	1282	52.52%	21.17%	26.32%	+0.27	-1.9	14
1932-12-11	@ Dolphin	D 1-1	53.7	1282	1243	26.32%	21.17%	52.52%	-0.27	+1.9	19
1932-12-11	Drumconda	W 3-1	32.7	1232	1092	68.47%	20.43%	11.10%	+1.26	+7.4	17
1932-12-11	@ St. James Gate	L 1-3	32.7	1092	1232	11.10%	20.43%	68.47%	-1.26	-7.4	6
1932-12-17	Bohemian	D 2-2	58.8	1403	1144	74.56%	19.47%	5.97%	+1.92	-4.2	24
1932-12-17	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	58.8	1144	1403	5.97%	19.47%	74.56%	-1.92	+4.2	13
1932-12-17	Dolphin	W 6-1	28.8	1389	1241	68.96%	20.37%	10.67%	+1.30	+15.9	23
1932-12-17	@ Shelbourne	L 1-6	28.8	1241	1389	10.67%	20.37%	68.96%	-1.30	-16.0	14
1932-12-18	Cork Bohemians	W 3-0	24.6	1284	1110	70.48%	20.19%	9.33%	+1.44	+10.5	21
1932-12-18	@ Cork FC	L 0-3	24.6	1110	1284	9.33%	20.19%	70.48%	-1.44	-10.5	14
1932-12-18	St. James Gate	W 4-2	37.6	1456	1239	72.71%	19.84%	7.44%	+1.68	+4.5	29
1932-12-18	@ Dundalk	L 2-4	37.6	1239	1456	7.44%	19.84%	72.71%	-1.68	-4.5	17
1932-12-18	Bray Unknowns	L 0-1	39.1	1084	1270	32.83%	21.08%	46.09%	-0.55	-11.6	6
1932-12-18	@ Drumconda	W 1-0	39.1	1270	1084	46.09%	21.08%	32.83%	+0.55	+11.7	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1932-12-03	7.95%	St. James Gate	1208	1	@ Shelbourne	1412	0
2	1932-08-21	10.45%	St. James Gate	1179	3	@ Shamrock Rovers	1331	1
3	1932-09-25	13.12%	Shamrock Rovers	1296	2	@ Dundalk	1403	0
4	1932-09-25	18.32%	St. James Gate	1205	3	@ Dolphin	1245	0
5	1932-10-23	22.62%	Shelbourne	1351	2	@ Cork FC	1346	1
6	1932-08-28	26.20%	Dundalk	1324	2	@ Dolphin	1286	0
7	1932-11-06	29.90%	@ Dolphin	1195	5	Shamrock Rovers	1403	2
8	1932-09-18	30.34%	@ Cork Bohemians	1125	4	Shelbourne	1330	3
9	1932-10-15	31.45%	@ Dolphin	1180	3	Shelbourne	1376	1
10	1932-10-01	31.54%	Shelbourne	1340	5	@ St. James Gate	1260	2
11	1932-10-09	31.91%	St. James Gate	1228	2	@ Drumconda	1145	1
12	1932-11-13	32.32%	Dolphin	1227	5	@ Cork Bohemians	1140	2
13	1932-11-20	32.65%	Dundalk	1407	5	@ Cork FC	1317	2
14	1932-11-13	34.38%	Cork FC	1303	2	@ St. James Gate	1201	1
15	1932-09-04	34.73%	Cork FC	1315	3	@ Drumconda	1210	1
16	1932-08-21	35.24%	@ Cork Bohemians	1120	3	Bohemian	1287	1
17	1932-09-04	35.26%	Bray Unknowns	1256	4	@ Cork Bohemians	1147	3
18	1932-10-15	36.33%	Shamrock Rovers	1358	3	@ Bohemian	1242	2
19	1932-12-04	38.34%	@ Cork FC	1259	3	Shamrock Rovers	1405	1
20	1932-10-15	39.29%	Dundalk	1380	3	@ St. James Gate	1243	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-09-25	54.30	St. James Gate	3	1205	18.32%	@ Dolphin	0	1245	60.73%	20.95%
2	1932-11-26	48.12	Shelbourne	4	1364	39.54%	@ Bohemian	0	1226	39.28%	21.18%
3	1932-09-25	40.88	Shamrock Rovers	2	1296	13.12%	@ Dundalk	0	1403	66.26%	20.63%
4	1932-08-21	37.05	St. James Gate	3	1179	10.45%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1331	69.21%	20.35%
5	1932-12-10	33.96	Dundalk	4	1422	53.45%	@ Bohemian	0	1178	25.68%	20.87%
6	1932-08-28	32.58	Dundalk	2	1324	26.20%	@ Dolphin	0	1286	52.63%	21.16%
7	1932-11-06	32.37	@ Dolphin	5	1195	29.90%	Shamrock Rovers	2	1403	49.09%	21.01%
8	1932-10-01	31.36	Shelbourne	5	1340	31.54%	@ St. James Gate	2	1260	47.25%	21.21%
9	1932-11-13	30.91	Dolphin	5	1227	32.32%	@ Cork Bohemians	2	1140	46.48%	21.21%
10	1932-11-20	30.72	Dundalk	5	1407	32.65%	@ Cork FC	2	1317	46.14%	21.21%
11	1932-10-29	28.14	@ Bohemian	4	1224	44.12%	Cork FC	1	1328	34.67%	21.21%
12	1932-08-20	28.07	@ Shelbourne	5	1300	53.55%	Cork FC	1	1329	25.29%	21.15%
13	1932-11-27	27.41	@ Bray Unknowns	3	1241	51.60%	Cork FC	0	1287	27.22%	21.18%
14	1932-11-26	27.04	@ St. James Gate	4	1181	45.80%	Dolphin	1	1273	33.00%	21.21%
15	1932-10-02	26.16	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1337	55.62%	Cork FC	1	1348	23.27%	21.11%
16	1932-10-15	25.68	@ Dolphin	3	1180	31.45%	Shelbourne	1	1376	47.51%	21.05%
17	1932-09-24	24.65	@ Shelbourne	4	1316	61.49%	Bohemian	0	1268	17.59%	20.92%
18	1932-09-04	24.12	Cork FC	3	1315	34.73%	@ Drumconda	1	1210	44.06%	21.21%
19	1932-08-21	23.90	@ Cork Bohemians	3	1120	35.24%	Bohemian	1	1287	43.63%	21.12%
20	1932-12-03	23.67	St. James Gate	1	1208	7.95%	@ Shelbourne	0	1412	72.10%	19.95%
21	1932-12-04	22.50	@ Cork FC	3	1259	38.34%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1405	40.49%	21.17%
22	1932-10-23	21.89	Shamrock Rovers	3	1371	39.69%	@ St. James Gate	1	1231	39.13%	21.17%
23	1932-12-11	21.36	Shamrock Rovers	4	1382	54.26%	@ Cork Bohemians	1	1131	24.91%	20.84%
24	1932-09-04	21.20	@ Dundalk	3	1357	58.88%	Shelbourne	0	1336	20.09%	21.02%
25	1932-09-11	18.63	Dundalk	3	1378	46.93%	@ Drumconda	1	1186	32.01%	21.06%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-10-15	62.4	@ Bray Unknowns	3	1243	66.65%	Drumconda	3	1130	12.76%	20.60%
2	1932-09-25	62.2	@ Drumconda	3	1152	58.17%	Cork Bohemians	3	1139	20.78%	21.05%
3	1932-11-05	60.9	@ Shelbourne	2	1378	54.07%	Dundalk	2	1403	24.79%	21.14%
4	1932-12-17	58.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1403	74.56%	Bohemian	2	1144	5.97%	19.47%
5	1932-11-19	58.6	@ Shelbourne	2	1369	74.56%	Cork Bohemians	2	1109	5.97%	19.47%
6	1932-10-02	58.1	@ Bray Unknowns	2	1250	62.48%	Dolphin	2	1191	16.65%	20.87%
7	1932-12-03	57.7	@ Drumconda	2	1093	46.70%	Bohemian	2	1178	32.10%	21.21%
8	1932-09-18	56.3	@ Cork Bohemians	4	1125	30.34%	Shelbourne	3	1330	48.65%	21.02%
9	1932-09-04	54.8	Bray Unknowns	4	1256	35.26%	@ Cork Bohemians	3	1147	43.53%	21.20%
10	1932-12-11	54.6	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1270	42.14%	Shelbourne	1	1389	36.66%	21.20%
11	1932-12-04	54.4	@ Dundalk	1	1428	76.20%	Cork Bohemians	1	1125	4.75%	19.04%
12	1932-10-09	54.0	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1363	73.44%	Cork Bohemians	1	1130	6.85%	19.71%
13	1932-08-20	53.9	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1248	48.07%	Dundalk	1	1323	30.73%	21.20%
14	1932-12-11	53.7	@ Dolphin	1	1243	52.52%	Cork FC	1	1282	26.32%	21.17%
15	1932-12-04	53.6	@ Dolphin	1	1246	54.37%	Bray Unknowns	1	1268	24.49%	21.14%
16	1932-11-12	53.5	@ Bohemian	1	1243	58.05%	Bray Unknowns	1	1231	20.90%	21.05%
17	1932-08-28	53.4	@ St. James Gate	1	1216	63.57%	Cork Bohemians	1	1144	15.62%	20.81%
18	1932-11-05	53.4	@ St. James Gate	6	1192	49.94%	Bohemian	5	1252	28.87%	21.19%
19	1932-10-23	51.8	Shelbourne	2	1351	22.62%	@ Cork FC	1	1346	56.28%	21.10%
20	1932-10-15	51.5	Shamrock Rovers	3	1358	36.33%	@ Bohemian	2	1242	42.47%	21.20%
21	1932-12-03	51.5	St. James Gate	1	1208	7.95%	@ Shelbourne	0	1412	72.10%	19.95%
22	1932-10-15	50.8	Dundalk	3	1380	39.29%	@ St. James Gate	2	1243	39.53%	21.18%
23	1932-09-10	50.6	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1269	58.09%	Bohemian	0	1256	20.86%	21.05%
24	1932-08-21	50.5	St. James Gate	3	1179	10.45%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1331	69.21%	20.35%
25	1932-10-22	50.3	@ Bohemian	0	1229	65.99%	Cork Bohemians	0	1125	13.36%	20.65%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-12-18	24.6	@ Cork FC	3	1284	70.48%	Cork Bohemians	0	1110	9.33%	20.19%
2	1932-10-09	25.7	@ Cork FC	3	1322	67.75%	Dolphin	0	1193	11.75%	20.50%
3	1932-09-24	26.7	@ Shelbourne	4	1316	61.49%	Bohemian	0	1268	17.59%	20.92%
4	1932-12-17	28.8	@ Shelbourne	6	1389	68.96%	Dolphin	1	1241	10.67%	20.37%
5	1932-09-11	28.9	@ Dolphin	2	1243	66.35%	Cork Bohemians	0	1135	13.03%	20.62%
6	1932-09-18	29.0	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1281	66.71%	Drumconda	1	1167	12.70%	20.59%
7	1932-12-10	29.2	Dundalk	4	1422	53.45%	@ Bohemian	0	1178	25.68%	20.87%
8	1932-09-04	29.6	@ Dundalk	3	1357	58.88%	Shelbourne	0	1336	20.09%	21.02%
9	1932-09-11	30.4	@ Cork FC	4	1339	68.03%	St. James Gate	1	1206	11.50%	20.47%
10	1932-11-27	30.6	@ Bray Unknowns	3	1241	51.60%	Cork FC	0	1287	27.22%	21.18%
11	1932-08-28	31.2	@ Cork FC	2	1301	60.54%	Bohemian	0	1263	18.50%	20.96%
12	1932-11-19	31.5	@ Dolphin	2	1258	58.61%	Bohemian	0	1240	20.36%	21.03%
13	1932-10-30	31.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	6	1392	69.50%	Bray Unknowns	2	1236	10.19%	20.31%
14	1932-09-10	32.0	@ Shelbourne	2	1315	58.81%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1295	20.16%	21.02%
15	1932-11-20	32.6	Shamrock Rovers	2	1378	54.97%	@ Drumconda	0	1121	24.23%	20.81%
16	1932-12-11	32.7	@ St. James Gate	3	1232	68.47%	Drumconda	1	1092	11.10%	20.43%
17	1932-10-30	33.3	@ Dundalk	5	1396	71.59%	Dolphin	2	1202	8.38%	20.03%
18	1932-11-26	33.3	Shelbourne	4	1364	39.54%	@ Bohemian	0	1226	39.28%	21.18%
19	1932-10-01	33.4	@ Bohemian	1	1243	65.20%	Drumconda	0	1150	14.10%	20.71%
20	1932-10-02	33.7	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1337	55.62%	Cork FC	1	1348	23.27%	21.11%
21	1932-11-06	33.7	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1225	64.11%	Cork Bohemians	0	1146	15.11%	20.78%
22	1932-08-20	33.8	@ Shelbourne	5	1300	53.55%	Cork FC	1	1329	25.29%	21.15%
23	1932-08-27	33.9	@ Shelbourne	3	1328	66.39%	Drumconda	1	1219	12.99%	20.62%
24	1932-12-11	34.4	Shamrock Rovers	4	1382	54.26%	@ Cork Bohemians	1	1131	24.91%	20.84%
25	1932-11-13	34.7	@ Dundalk	2	1405	75.42%	Drumconda	1	1123	5.32%	19.26%