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1933-34 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Bohemian

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bohemian

8.99 points above expected

27 points · 18.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. James Gate

5.74 points below expected

13 points · 18.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bohemian 18 11 5 2 27 38 23 +15 18.01 +8.99
2 Cork FC 18 11 4 3 26 47 26 +21 22.01 +3.99
3 Shamrock Rovers 18 9 4 5 22 28 23 +5 20.49 +1.51
4 Dundalk 18 9 3 6 21 33 25 +8 22.55 -1.55
5 Dolphin 18 7 3 8 17 23 21 +2 17.32 -0.32
6 Shelbourne 18 6 5 7 17 22 25 -3 18.41 -1.41
7 Drumconda 18 6 4 8 16 27 28 -1 15.96 +0.04
8 St. James Gate 18 5 3 10 13 26 32 -6 18.74 -5.74
9 Bray Unknowns 18 6 1 11 13 26 44 -18 15.53 -2.53
10 Cork Bohemians 18 2 4 12 8 18 41 -23 10.98 -2.98

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 27 18.01 +8.99
2 Cork FC 26 22.01 +3.99
3 Shamrock Rovers 22 20.49 +1.51
4 Drumconda 16 15.96 +0.04
5 Dolphin 17 17.32 -0.32

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. James Gate 13 18.74 -5.74
2 Cork Bohemians 8 10.98 -2.98
3 Bray Unknowns 13 15.53 -2.53
4 Dundalk 21 22.55 -1.55
5 Shelbourne 17 18.41 -1.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 7 Jan 6 – Mar 11 1 in 534
2 Cork FC 4 Oct 21 – Nov 12 1 in 36
3 Dolphin 3 Dec 17 – Dec 31 1 in 13
4 Cork Bohemians 2 Feb 4 – Feb 18 1 in 9
5 St. James Gate 2 Nov 19 – Nov 25 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 4 Dec 3 – Dec 23 1 in 97
2 Cork Bohemians 6 Nov 26 – Jan 7 1 in 30
3 Dundalk 3 Feb 24 – Mar 18 1 in 25
4 Shamrock Rovers 2 Nov 18 – Nov 26 1 in 22
5 Bray Unknowns 3 Oct 21 – Nov 5 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 14 Nov 18 – Mar 11 1 in 1,719
2 Shelbourne 6 Dec 30 – Feb 17 1 in 66
3 Shamrock Rovers 10 Dec 3 – Feb 24 1 in 26
4 Dolphin 6 Nov 26 – Dec 31 1 in 14
5 Cork Bohemians 3 Nov 5 – Nov 19 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 9 Dec 3 – Feb 16 1 in 178
2 Cork Bohemians 13 Oct 22 – Jan 27 1 in 48
3 Shelbourne 6 Oct 29 – Dec 2 1 in 25
4 Cork FC 4 Jan 7 – Feb 18 1 in 17
5 Shamrock Rovers 4 Nov 11 – Dec 3 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Bohemian 1126 27 +105 10 6.5 +3.5
Cork FC 1083 26 -26 6 6.6 -0.6
Shamrock Rovers 1014 22 -5 6 5.3 +0.7
Dundalk 957 21 -103 2 6.0 -4.0
Shelbourne 946 17 -3 7 5.6 +1.4
Dolphin 976 17 +3 4 5.1 -1.1
Drumconda 925 16 +67 6 4.4 +1.6
St. James Gate 876 13 -44 2 4.3 -2.3
Bray Unknowns 806 11 -64 3 4.3 -1.3
Cork Bohemians 788 8 +50 4 2.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU CB COR DOL DRU DUN SR SHE SJG
Bohemian —
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.70
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.19
1-1-0
2.78
1-1-0
1.93
2-0-0
2.61
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
2.54
Bray Unknowns
1-0-1
2.38
 —
1-0-1
3.21
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
1.38
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.49
Cork Bohemians
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
2.36
 —
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
1.76
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.55
0-1-1
1.88
0-2-0
1.69
Cork FC
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.41
 —
1-1-0
3.68
1-0-1
3.99
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.38
Dolphin
0-1-1
2.38
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.82
0-1-1
1.89
 —
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.70
Drumconda
0-1-1
2.79
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
1.59
0-1-1
2.70
 —
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.47
Dundalk
0-1-1
3.64
1-0-1
4.21
1-1-0
4.16
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.60
 —
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.35
1-0-1
3.51
Shamrock Rovers
0-0-2
2.97
1-0-1
3.65
2-0-0
4.03
0-1-1
2.53
2-0-0
3.18
2-0-0
3.45
0-1-1
2.57
 —
0-2-0
3.20
2-0-0
2.98
Shelbourne
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.70
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.22
0-2-0
2.38
 —
1-0-1
2.75
St. James Gate
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
3.09
0-2-0
3.89
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
3.10
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.82
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +6.0
Allowed 0.53 -5.6
Differential 0.91 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%7.78%5.00%5.00%1.11%—23.33%
17.78%7.78%5.56%3.89%3.89%0.56%29.44%
25.00%5.56%5.56%2.22%1.11%1.11%20.56%
35.00%3.89%2.22%2.22%1.67%0.56%15.56%
41.11%3.89%1.11%1.67%——7.78%
5+—0.56%1.11%0.56%—1.11%3.33%
Total23.33%29.44%20.56%15.56%7.78%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.59 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.90
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
116.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
216.67%—11.11%———27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.28 +0.83
SD 1.41 1.23 1.50
CV 0.67 0.96 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—33.33%
2—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
3——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
Total5.56%16.67%22.22%22.22%22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.39 -1.00
SD 1.46 1.58 1.71
CV 1.05 0.66 —
Max 5 5 +2
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——16.67%5.56%—27.78%
1—11.11%5.56%16.67%11.11%—44.44%
211.11%—————11.11%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total16.67%11.11%5.56%38.89%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.22 -1.28
SD 1.06 1.63 1.78
CV 1.12 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
1——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 1.44 +1.17
SD 1.58 1.10 1.95
CV 0.60 0.76 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
111.11%5.56%5.56%—11.11%—33.33%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
316.67%—————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.17 +0.11
SD 1.27 1.29 2.05
CV 1.00 1.11 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
1—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
311.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%33.33%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.56 -0.06
SD 1.34 1.15 1.83
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
216.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
311.11%————5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.39 +0.44
SD 1.42 1.46 2.15
CV 0.78 1.05 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
2—27.78%11.11%11.11%——50.00%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.28 +0.28
SD 1.10 1.02 1.56
CV 0.70 0.80 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%———33.33%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.39 -0.17
SD 1.31 1.61 1.92
CV 1.07 1.16 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
111.11%—16.67%11.11%——38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.78 -0.33
SD 1.20 1.22 1.50
CV 0.83 0.68 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Bohemian 1126 27 18.01 +8.99 100.0% 12 13 16 18 20 24 25
Cork FC 1083 26 22.01 +3.99 90.0% 15 16 19 22 24 28 32
Shamrock Rovers 1014 22 20.49 +1.51 74.0% 14 14 18 20 23 27 28
Dolphin 976 17 17.32 -0.32 58.0% 9 11 15 16 20 23 27
Dundalk 957 21 22.55 -1.55 38.0% 13 16 20 23 25 28 31
Shelbourne 946 17 18.41 -1.41 36.0% 12 13 16 19 21 24 25
Drumconda 925 16 15.96 +0.04 59.0% 8 10 13 16 18 22 25
St. James Gate 876 13 18.74 -5.74 11.0% 11 12 16 19 22 24 27
Bray Unknowns 806 13 15.53 -2.53 27.0% 6 8 13 16 18 21 22
Cork Bohemians 788 8 10.98 -2.98 22.0% 5 7 9 11 13 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Strong Edge
52.22%20.00%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
186 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
082.59500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.60 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.44+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
6%
Bohemian, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.74 * Some Luck: 2.74 to 4.11 * Lucky: 4.11 to 5.48 * Wild Swing: 5.48 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.42 * Close: 1.42 to 2.13 * Off: 2.13 to 2.84 * Way Off: 2.84 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.90 points
Some Luck
03.439
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.774
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Bohemian
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
St. James Gate
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 108.68
1.59
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Notable Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.40
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.26
Weak Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.76
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.122
Well Within Noise
00.1670.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Bohemian6.00%5.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%18.00%5.00%—
Cork FC33.00%24.00%10.00%9.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%——
Shamrock Rovers11.00%11.00%31.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%6.00%8.00%1.00%—
Dundalk36.00%22.00%8.00%15.00%11.00%1.00%5.00%2.00%——
Dolphin4.00%6.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%17.00%16.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%
Shelbourne4.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%18.00%16.00%11.00%9.00%7.00%2.00%
Drumconda2.00%5.00%4.00%5.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%25.00%7.00%
St. James Gate4.00%17.00%11.00%14.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%6.00%15.00%1.00%
Bray Unknowns—1.00%4.00%7.00%6.00%10.00%18.00%21.00%23.00%10.00%
Cork Bohemians————1.00%—4.00%8.00%13.00%74.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Cork Bohemians 100%
Cork FC 100%
Dolphin 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1933-10-20 Shamrock Rovers W 2-031.9 1001 990 56.46% 21.34% 22.19%+0.50 +20.5 2
1933-10-20 @ Dundalk L 0-231.9 990 1001 22.19% 21.34% 56.46%-0.50 -20.5 0
1933-10-21 Cork FC L 1-442.7 912 946 51.40% 21.42% 27.18%+0.26 -50.4 0
1933-10-21 @ Bohemian W 4-142.7 946 912 27.18% 21.42% 51.40%-0.26 +50.4 2
1933-10-21 Bray Unknowns W 1-034.8 1010 952 61.03% 21.21% 17.75%+0.75 +9.0 2
1933-10-21 @ Shelbourne L 0-134.8 952 1010 17.75% 21.21% 61.03%-0.75 -9.0 0
1933-10-22 Drumconda L 1-347.1 905 901 55.76% 21.36% 22.89%+0.46 -38.4 0
1933-10-22 @ Cork Bohemians W 3-147.1 901 905 22.89% 21.36% 55.76%-0.46 +38.4 2
1933-10-22 St. James Gate L 0-145.9 937 944 54.60% 21.38% 24.03%+0.41 -23.1 0
1933-10-22 @ Dolphin W 1-045.9 944 937 24.03% 21.38% 54.60%-0.41 +23.1 2
1933-10-28 Bohemian L 0-148.9 967 862 65.00% 21.03% 13.98%+1.01 -27.4 2
1933-10-28 @ St. James Gate W 1-048.9 862 967 13.98% 21.03% 65.00%-1.01 +27.5 2
1933-10-29 Bray Unknowns W 4-240.0 997 943 60.67% 21.23% 18.10%+0.73 +13.4 4
1933-10-29 @ Cork FC L 2-440.0 943 997 18.10% 21.23% 60.67%-0.73 -13.4 0
1933-10-29 Shelbourne W 2-032.1 1021 1019 55.61% 21.36% 23.03%+0.46 +21.2 4
1933-10-29 @ Dundalk L 0-232.1 1019 1021 23.03% 21.36% 55.61%-0.46 -21.2 2
1933-10-29 Dolphin D 2-259.4 939 914 57.94% 21.31% 20.75%+0.58 -2.7 3
1933-10-29 @ Drumconda D 2-259.4 914 939 20.75% 21.31% 57.94%-0.58 +2.7 1
1933-10-29 Cork Bohemians W 4-025.6 970 866 64.83% 21.04% 14.14%+1.00 +26.3 2
1933-10-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-425.6 866 970 14.14% 21.04% 64.83%-1.00 -26.3 0
1933-11-04 Drumconda D 1-154.2 889 936 49.79% 21.43% 28.77%+0.19 -2.0 3
1933-11-04 @ Bohemian D 1-154.2 936 889 28.77% 21.43% 49.79%-0.19 +2.0 4
1933-11-04 Cork FC L 2-450.8 997 1010 53.93% 21.39% 24.68%+0.38 -33.3 2
1933-11-04 @ Shelbourne W 4-250.8 1010 997 24.68% 21.39% 53.93%-0.38 +33.3 6
1933-11-05 St. James Gate L 1-443.5 930 940 54.24% 21.38% 24.37%+0.39 -52.9 0
1933-11-05 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-143.5 940 930 24.37% 21.38% 54.24%-0.39 +52.9 4
1933-11-05 Dundalk D 1-154.2 840 1042 28.96% 21.28% 49.76%-0.64 +2.0 1
1933-11-05 @ Cork Bohemians D 1-154.2 1042 840 49.76% 21.28% 28.96%+0.64 -2.0 5
1933-11-05 Shamrock Rovers L 0-143.3 917 996 45.76% 21.45% 32.79%+0.02 -19.7 1
1933-11-05 @ Dolphin W 1-043.3 996 917 32.79% 21.45% 45.76%-0.02 +19.7 4
1933-11-11 Shamrock Rovers D 1-154.2 964 1015 49.30% 21.44% 29.27%+0.17 -1.9 3
1933-11-11 @ Shelbourne D 1-154.2 1015 964 29.27% 21.44% 49.30%-0.17 +1.9 5
1933-11-12 Bohemian W 1-036.8 877 887 54.21% 21.38% 24.41%+0.39 +11.8 2
1933-11-12 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-136.8 887 877 24.41% 21.38% 54.21%-0.39 -11.8 3
1933-11-12 Dolphin W 4-130.5 1043 897 67.79% 20.83% 11.38%+1.23 +13.9 8
1933-11-12 @ Cork FC L 1-430.5 897 1043 11.38% 20.83% 67.79%-1.23 -13.9 1
1933-11-12 Dundalk L 0-142.3 938 1040 42.59% 21.44% 35.96%-0.10 -18.5 4
1933-11-12 @ Drumconda W 1-042.3 1040 938 35.96% 21.44% 42.59%+0.10 +18.5 7
1933-11-12 Cork Bohemians D 3-363.7 993 842 68.10% 20.80% 11.10%+1.25 -3.7 5
1933-11-12 @ St. James Gate D 3-363.7 842 993 11.10% 20.80% 68.10%-1.25 +3.7 2
1933-11-18 Bohemian L 2-359.3 1017 875 67.55% 20.85% 11.60%+1.21 -25.6 5
1933-11-18 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-259.3 875 1017 11.60% 20.85% 67.55%-1.21 +25.6 5
1933-11-19 Shelbourne D 1-154.2 846 962 40.54% 21.44% 38.03%-0.18 -0.2 3
1933-11-19 @ Cork Bohemians D 1-154.2 962 846 38.03% 21.44% 40.54%+0.18 +0.2 4
1933-11-19 Dolphin W 4-130.0 1059 884 69.57% 20.66% 9.76%+1.39 +12.1 9
1933-11-19 @ Dundalk L 1-430.0 884 1059 9.76% 20.66% 69.57%-1.39 -12.1 1
1933-11-19 Bray Unknowns W 3-028.3 920 889 58.57% 21.29% 20.14%+0.61 +27.5 6
1933-11-19 @ Drumconda L 0-328.3 889 920 20.14% 21.29% 58.57%-0.61 -27.5 2
1933-11-19 Cork FC W 3-139.8 989 1057 47.14% 21.45% 31.41%+0.08 +23.7 7
1933-11-19 @ St. James Gate L 1-339.8 1057 989 31.41% 21.45% 47.14%-0.08 -23.7 8
1933-11-25 Dundalk D 2-259.4 901 1071 33.09% 21.36% 45.55%-0.47 +0.9 6
1933-11-25 @ Bohemian D 2-259.4 1071 901 45.55% 21.36% 33.09%+0.47 -0.9 10
1933-11-25 St. James Gate L 0-144.4 962 1013 49.43% 21.44% 29.13%+0.17 -21.0 4
1933-11-25 @ Shelbourne W 1-044.4 1013 962 29.13% 21.44% 49.43%-0.17 +21.0 9
1933-11-26 Shamrock Rovers W 3-251.2 861 992 38.56% 21.42% 40.02%-0.26 +15.8 4
1933-11-26 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-351.2 992 861 40.02% 21.42% 38.56%+0.26 -15.8 5
1933-11-26 Drumconda W 2-138.8 1033 947 63.48% 21.11% 15.41%+0.91 +7.5 10
1933-11-26 @ Cork FC L 1-238.8 947 1033 15.41% 21.11% 63.48%-0.91 -7.5 6
1933-11-26 Cork Bohemians W 3-028.4 871 845 58.06% 21.30% 20.64%+0.58 +28.0 3
1933-11-26 @ Dolphin L 0-328.4 845 871 20.64% 21.30% 58.06%-0.58 -28.0 3
1933-12-02 Shelbourne W 2-033.7 900 941 50.47% 21.43% 28.10%+0.22 +25.0 5
1933-12-02 @ Dolphin L 0-233.7 941 900 28.10% 21.43% 50.47%-0.22 -25.0 4
1933-12-03 Bohemian L 1-343.9 817 902 45.00% 21.45% 33.56%-0.01 -31.7 3
1933-12-03 @ Cork Bohemians W 3-143.9 902 817 33.56% 21.45% 45.00%+0.01 +31.7 8
1933-12-03 Bray Unknowns W 5-232.9 1070 877 70.54% 20.56% 8.90%+1.48 +9.6 12
1933-12-03 @ Dundalk L 2-532.9 877 1070 8.90% 20.56% 70.54%-1.48 -9.6 4
1933-12-03 St. James Gate W 3-249.6 940 1034 43.71% 21.45% 34.84%-0.06 +14.1 8
1933-12-03 @ Drumconda L 2-349.6 1034 940 34.84% 21.45% 43.71%+0.06 -14.1 9
1933-12-03 Cork FC D 2-259.3 976 1041 47.57% 21.44% 30.99%+0.09 -1.1 6
1933-12-03 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-259.3 1041 976 30.99% 21.44% 47.57%-0.09 +1.1 11
1933-12-09 Dolphin D 1-154.2 933 925 56.29% 21.35% 22.36%+0.49 -3.3 9
1933-12-09 @ Bohemian D 1-154.2 925 933 22.36% 21.35% 56.29%-0.49 +3.3 6
1933-12-09 Drumconda W 5-134.0 916 954 50.99% 21.42% 27.59%+0.24 +39.0 6
1933-12-09 @ Shelbourne L 1-534.0 954 916 27.59% 21.42% 50.99%-0.24 -39.0 8
1933-12-10 Dundalk W 4-029.8 1042 1080 51.00% 21.42% 27.58%+0.24 +46.7 13
1933-12-10 @ Cork FC L 0-429.8 1080 1042 27.58% 21.42% 51.00%-0.24 -46.7 12
1933-12-10 Shamrock Rovers L 1-252.1 1020 975 59.88% 21.25% 18.87%+0.68 -23.8 9
1933-12-10 @ St. James Gate W 2-152.1 975 1020 18.87% 21.25% 59.88%-0.68 +23.8 8
1933-12-16 Shelbourne W 2-033.1 930 955 52.47% 21.41% 26.12%+0.31 +23.5 11
1933-12-16 @ Bohemian L 0-233.1 955 930 26.12% 21.41% 52.47%-0.31 -23.6 6
1933-12-17 Cork FC L 1-432.6 786 1089 18.32% 20.88% 60.80%-1.18 -21.2 3
1933-12-17 @ Cork Bohemians W 4-132.6 1089 786 60.80% 20.88% 18.32%+1.18 +21.2 15
1933-12-17 Bray Unknowns W 4-132.4 928 868 61.30% 21.20% 17.50%+0.77 +20.5 8
1933-12-17 @ Dolphin L 1-432.4 868 928 17.50% 21.20% 61.30%-0.77 -20.5 4
1933-12-17 St. James Gate W 3-028.1 1033 996 59.15% 21.27% 19.58%+0.64 +26.8 14
1933-12-17 @ Dundalk L 0-328.1 996 1033 19.58% 21.27% 59.15%-0.64 -26.8 9
1933-12-17 Drumconda W 1-034.1 999 915 63.28% 21.12% 15.60%+0.89 +8.0 10
1933-12-17 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-134.1 915 999 15.60% 21.12% 63.28%-0.89 -8.0 8
1933-12-23 Shelbourne W 3-249.3 847 932 44.94% 21.45% 33.61%-0.01 +13.7 6
1933-12-23 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-349.3 932 847 33.61% 21.45% 44.94%+0.01 -13.7 6
1933-12-23 Cork Bohemians W 3-133.7 907 765 67.58% 20.85% 11.57%+1.21 +10.0 10
1933-12-23 @ Drumconda L 1-333.7 765 907 11.57% 20.85% 67.58%-1.21 -10.0 3
1933-12-23 Dolphin L 0-146.8 969 948 57.52% 21.32% 21.16%+0.55 -24.2 9
1933-12-23 @ St. James Gate W 1-046.8 948 969 21.16% 21.32% 57.52%-0.55 +24.2 10
1933-12-24 Bohemian D 3-363.8 1110 954 68.45% 20.77% 10.78%+1.28 -3.7 16
1933-12-24 @ Cork FC D 3-363.8 954 1110 10.78% 20.77% 68.45%-1.28 +3.7 12
1933-12-24 Dundalk D 2-259.3 1007 1060 49.08% 21.44% 29.48%+0.16 -1.4 11
1933-12-24 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-259.3 1060 1007 29.48% 21.44% 49.08%-0.16 +1.4 15
1933-12-30 St. James Gate D 2-259.4 957 945 56.68% 21.34% 21.98%+0.51 -2.5 13
1933-12-30 @ Bohemian D 2-259.4 945 957 21.98% 21.34% 56.68%-0.51 +2.5 10
1933-12-30 Dundalk W 1-042.1 918 1061 36.78% 21.41% 41.82%-0.32 +18.2 8
1933-12-30 @ Shelbourne L 0-142.1 1061 918 41.82% 21.41% 36.78%+0.32 -18.2 15
1933-12-31 Cork FC L 3-449.5 861 1106 23.96% 21.14% 54.90%-0.88 -10.1 6
1933-12-31 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-349.5 1106 861 54.90% 21.14% 23.96%+0.88 +10.1 18
1933-12-31 Shamrock Rovers L 1-241.1 755 1005 23.40% 21.12% 55.48%-0.90 -10.7 3
1933-12-31 @ Cork Bohemians W 2-141.1 1005 755 55.48% 21.12% 23.40%+0.90 +10.7 13
1933-12-31 Drumconda W 1-034.9 973 917 60.87% 21.22% 17.91%+0.74 +9.1 12
1933-12-31 @ Dolphin L 0-134.9 917 973 17.91% 21.22% 60.87%-0.74 -9.1 10
1934-01-06 Bohemian L 0-240.2 908 955 49.86% 21.43% 28.71%+0.19 -40.0 10
1934-01-06 @ Drumconda W 2-040.2 955 908 28.71% 21.43% 49.86%-0.19 +40.0 15
1934-01-07 Shelbourne D 0-050.7 1116 936 69.84% 20.64% 9.53%+1.41 -7.1 19
1934-01-07 @ Cork FC D 0-050.7 936 1116 9.53% 20.64% 69.84%-1.41 +7.1 9
1934-01-07 Cork Bohemians W 3-023.3 1043 744 75.13% 19.78% 5.09%+2.05 +7.6 17
1934-01-07 @ Dundalk L 0-323.3 744 1043 5.09% 19.78% 75.13%-2.05 -7.6 3
1934-01-07 Dolphin W 2-140.1 1016 982 58.88% 21.28% 19.83%+0.63 +9.3 15
1934-01-07 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-240.1 982 1016 19.83% 21.28% 58.88%-0.63 -9.3 12
1934-01-07 Bray Unknowns L 1-253.4 947 851 64.33% 21.06% 14.61%+0.96 -25.6 10
1934-01-07 @ St. James Gate W 2-153.4 851 947 14.61% 21.06% 64.33%-0.96 +25.6 8
1934-01-20 Drumconda W 2-027.8 1050 868 69.97% 20.62% 9.41%+1.42 +9.5 19
1934-01-20 @ Dundalk L 0-227.8 868 1050 9.41% 20.62% 69.97%-1.42 -9.5 10
1934-01-20 Shelbourne D 0-050.5 1025 943 63.15% 21.12% 15.73%+0.88 -5.4 16
1934-01-20 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-050.5 943 1025 15.73% 21.12% 63.15%-0.88 +5.4 10
1934-01-21 St. James Gate D 0-050.4 736 922 31.08% 21.32% 47.60%-0.55 +1.7 4
1934-01-21 @ Cork Bohemians D 0-050.4 922 736 47.60% 21.32% 31.08%+0.55 -1.7 11
1934-01-21 Cork FC D 0-050.4 972 1109 37.62% 21.41% 40.96%-0.29 +0.3 13
1934-01-21 @ Dolphin D 0-050.4 1109 972 40.96% 21.41% 37.62%+0.29 -0.3 20
1934-01-27 Cork Bohemians W 3-024.4 949 738 71.45% 20.44% 8.11%+1.58 +12.0 12
1934-01-27 @ Shelbourne L 0-324.4 738 949 8.11% 20.44% 71.45%-1.58 -12.0 4
1934-02-03 Shelbourne L 1-249.4 920 961 50.62% 21.43% 27.96%+0.22 -20.3 11
1934-02-03 @ St. James Gate W 2-149.4 961 920 27.96% 21.43% 50.62%-0.22 +20.3 14
1934-02-04 Dolphin W 2-041.6 726 973 23.84% 21.13% 55.03%-0.88 +43.7 6
1934-02-04 @ Cork Bohemians L 0-241.6 973 726 55.03% 21.13% 23.84%+0.88 -43.7 13
1934-02-04 Bohemian L 0-148.0 1060 995 61.73% 21.19% 17.09%+0.79 -26.0 19
1934-02-04 @ Dundalk W 1-048.0 995 1060 17.09% 21.19% 61.73%-0.79 +26.0 17
1934-02-04 Cork FC W 3-038.8 858 1109 23.43% 21.12% 55.45%-0.90 +63.9 12
1934-02-04 @ Drumconda L 0-338.8 1109 858 55.45% 21.12% 23.43%+0.90 -64.0 20
1934-02-04 Bray Unknowns W 2-137.5 1020 876 67.66% 20.84% 11.50%+1.22 +5.7 18
1934-02-04 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-237.5 876 1020 11.50% 20.84% 67.66%-1.22 -5.7 8
1934-02-07 Bray Unknowns W 3-133.5 1021 870 68.08% 20.80% 11.11%+1.25 +9.6 19
1934-02-07 @ Bohemian L 1-333.5 870 1021 11.11% 20.80% 68.08%-1.25 -9.6 8
1934-02-11 Drumconda D 1-154.2 861 922 48.00% 21.44% 30.56%+0.11 -1.6 9
1934-02-11 @ Bray Unknowns D 1-154.2 922 861 30.56% 21.44% 48.00%-0.11 +1.6 13
1934-02-16 St. James Gate W 3-134.0 1026 900 66.47% 20.93% 12.60%+1.12 +10.8 20
1934-02-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-334.0 900 1026 12.60% 20.93% 66.47%-1.12 -10.8 11
1934-02-17 Bohemian L 0-238.0 929 1030 42.64% 21.44% 35.92%-0.10 -35.0 13
1934-02-17 @ Dolphin W 2-038.0 1030 929 35.92% 21.44% 42.64%+0.10 +35.0 21
1934-02-17 Shelbourne D 1-154.2 924 981 48.59% 21.44% 29.97%+0.14 -1.7 14
1934-02-17 @ Drumconda D 1-154.2 981 924 29.97% 21.44% 48.59%-0.14 +1.7 15
1934-02-18 Bray Unknowns W 2-035.5 770 859 44.29% 21.45% 34.26%-0.04 +29.4 8
1934-02-18 @ Cork Bohemians L 0-235.5 859 770 34.26% 21.45% 44.29%+0.04 -29.4 9
1934-02-18 Cork FC W 2-141.6 1034 1045 54.10% 21.39% 24.51%+0.38 +11.2 21
1934-02-18 @ Dundalk L 1-241.6 1045 1034 24.51% 21.39% 54.10%-0.38 -11.2 20
1934-02-24 Shamrock Rovers L 1-246.5 922 1036 40.87% 21.44% 37.69%-0.17 -16.9 14
1934-02-24 @ Drumconda W 2-146.5 1036 922 37.69% 21.44% 40.87%+0.17 +16.9 22
1934-02-24 Bohemian L 2-641.6 983 1065 45.22% 21.45% 33.33%+0.00 -49.3 15
1934-02-24 @ Shelbourne W 6-241.6 1065 983 33.33% 21.45% 45.22%+0.00 +49.3 23
1934-02-24 Dundalk W 2-147.3 889 1045 34.96% 21.39% 43.65%-0.40 +17.8 13
1934-02-24 @ St. James Gate L 1-247.3 1045 889 43.65% 21.39% 34.96%+0.40 -17.8 21
1934-02-25 Cork Bohemians FW48.6 830 799 58.54% 21.29% 20.17%+0.61 +0.0 11
1934-02-25 @ Bray Unknowns FL48.6 799 830 20.17% 21.29% 58.54%-0.61 +0.0 8
1934-02-25 Dolphin L 0-336.6 830 894 47.67% 21.44% 30.88%+0.10 -55.8 11
1934-02-25 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-036.6 894 830 30.88% 21.44% 47.67%-0.10 +55.8 15
1934-02-25 Cork Bohemians W 4-129.1 1034 799 72.58% 20.28% 7.15%+1.70 +9.0 22
1934-02-25 @ Cork FC L 1-429.1 799 1034 7.15% 20.28% 72.58%-1.70 -9.0 8
1934-03-02 St. James Gate W 3-133.8 1043 907 67.16% 20.88% 11.96%+1.17 +10.3 24
1934-03-02 @ Cork FC L 1-333.8 907 1043 11.96% 20.88% 67.16%-1.17 -10.3 13
1934-03-03 Shamrock Rovers W 1-034.7 1115 1053 61.39% 21.20% 17.41%+0.77 +8.8 25
1934-03-03 @ Bohemian L 0-134.7 1053 1115 17.41% 21.20% 61.39%-0.77 -8.8 22
1934-03-10 Dolphin W 1-037.1 933 950 53.51% 21.39% 25.10%+0.36 +12.1 17
1934-03-10 @ Shelbourne L 0-137.1 950 933 25.10% 21.39% 53.51%-0.36 -12.1 15
1934-03-11 Cork Bohemians W 4-343.1 1124 790 76.28% 19.49% 4.23%+2.23 +2.0 27
1934-03-11 @ Bohemian L 3-443.1 790 1124 4.23% 19.49% 76.28%-2.23 -2.0 8
1934-03-11 Dundalk W 5-353.5 774 1027 23.13% 21.11% 55.76%-0.92 +32.4 13
1934-03-11 @ Bray Unknowns L 3-553.5 1027 774 55.76% 21.11% 23.13%+0.92 -32.4 21
1934-03-11 Shamrock Rovers W 3-029.0 1053 1045 56.25% 21.35% 22.40%+0.49 +30.1 26
1934-03-11 @ Cork FC L 0-329.0 1045 1053 22.40% 21.35% 56.25%-0.49 -30.1 22
1934-03-11 Drumconda L 3-458.7 896 905 54.34% 21.38% 24.28%+0.40 -20.0 13
1934-03-11 @ St. James Gate W 4-358.7 905 896 24.28% 21.38% 54.34%-0.40 +20.0 16
1934-03-18 Dundalk W 3-031.3 938 995 48.55% 21.44% 30.01%+0.14 +38.3 17
1934-03-18 @ Dolphin L 0-331.3 995 938 30.01% 21.44% 48.55%-0.14 -38.3 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1933-11-18 11.60% Bohemian 875 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1017 2
2 1933-10-28 13.98% Bohemian 862 1 @ St. James Gate 967 0
3 1934-01-07 14.61% Bray Unknowns 851 2 @ St. James Gate 947 1
4 1934-02-04 17.09% Bohemian 995 1 @ Dundalk 1060 0
5 1933-12-10 18.87% Shamrock Rovers 975 2 @ St. James Gate 1020 1
6 1933-12-23 21.16% Dolphin 948 1 @ St. James Gate 969 0
7 1933-10-22 22.89% Drumconda 901 3 @ Cork Bohemians 905 1
8 1934-03-11 23.13% @ Bray Unknowns 774 5 Dundalk 1027 3
9 1934-02-04 23.43% @ Drumconda 858 3 Cork FC 1109 0
10 1934-02-04 23.84% @ Cork Bohemians 726 2 Dolphin 973 0
11 1933-10-22 24.03% St. James Gate 944 1 @ Dolphin 937 0
12 1934-03-11 24.28% Drumconda 905 4 @ St. James Gate 896 3
13 1933-11-05 24.37% St. James Gate 940 4 @ Bray Unknowns 930 1
14 1933-11-04 24.68% Cork FC 1010 4 @ Shelbourne 997 2
15 1933-10-21 27.18% Cork FC 946 4 @ Bohemian 912 1
16 1934-02-03 27.96% Shelbourne 961 2 @ St. James Gate 920 1
17 1934-01-06 28.71% Bohemian 955 2 @ Drumconda 908 0
18 1933-11-25 29.13% St. James Gate 1013 1 @ Shelbourne 962 0
19 1934-02-25 30.88% Dolphin 894 3 @ Bray Unknowns 830 0
20 1933-11-05 32.79% Shamrock Rovers 996 1 @ Dolphin 917 0
21 1934-02-24 33.33% Bohemian 1065 6 @ Shelbourne 983 2
22 1933-12-03 33.56% Bohemian 902 3 @ Cork Bohemians 817 1
23 1934-02-24 34.96% @ St. James Gate 889 2 Dundalk 1045 1
24 1934-02-17 35.92% Bohemian 1030 2 @ Dolphin 929 0
25 1933-11-12 35.96% Dundalk 1040 1 @ Drumconda 938 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1934-02-04 63.95 @ Drumconda 3 858 23.43% Cork FC 0 1109 55.45% 21.12%
2 1934-02-25 55.82 Dolphin 3 894 30.88% @ Bray Unknowns 0 830 47.67% 21.44%
3 1933-11-05 52.93 St. James Gate 4 940 24.37% @ Bray Unknowns 1 930 54.24% 21.38%
4 1933-10-21 50.35 Cork FC 4 946 27.18% @ Bohemian 1 912 51.40% 21.42%
5 1934-02-24 49.26 Bohemian 6 1065 33.33% @ Shelbourne 2 983 45.22% 21.45%
6 1933-12-10 46.74 @ Cork FC 4 1042 51.00% Dundalk 0 1080 27.58% 21.42%
7 1934-02-04 43.71 @ Cork Bohemians 2 726 23.84% Dolphin 0 973 55.03% 21.13%
8 1934-01-06 39.99 Bohemian 2 955 28.71% @ Drumconda 0 908 49.86% 21.43%
9 1933-12-09 38.96 @ Shelbourne 5 916 50.99% Drumconda 1 954 27.59% 21.42%
10 1933-10-22 38.42 Drumconda 3 901 22.89% @ Cork Bohemians 1 905 55.76% 21.36%
11 1934-03-18 38.33 @ Dolphin 3 938 48.55% Dundalk 0 995 30.01% 21.44%
12 1934-02-17 34.96 Bohemian 2 1030 35.92% @ Dolphin 0 929 42.64% 21.44%
13 1933-11-04 33.30 Cork FC 4 1010 24.68% @ Shelbourne 2 997 53.93% 21.39%
14 1934-03-11 32.40 @ Bray Unknowns 5 774 23.13% Dundalk 3 1027 55.76% 21.11%
15 1933-12-03 31.67 Bohemian 3 902 33.56% @ Cork Bohemians 1 817 45.00% 21.45%
16 1934-03-11 30.07 @ Cork FC 3 1053 56.25% Shamrock Rovers 0 1045 22.40% 21.35%
17 1934-02-18 29.37 @ Cork Bohemians 2 770 44.29% Bray Unknowns 0 859 34.26% 21.45%
18 1933-11-26 28.04 @ Dolphin 3 871 58.06% Cork Bohemians 0 845 20.64% 21.30%
19 1933-11-19 27.46 @ Drumconda 3 920 58.57% Bray Unknowns 0 889 20.14% 21.29%
20 1933-10-28 27.45 Bohemian 1 862 13.98% @ St. James Gate 0 967 65.00% 21.03%
21 1933-12-17 26.80 @ Dundalk 3 1033 59.15% St. James Gate 0 996 19.58% 21.27%
22 1933-10-29 26.27 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 970 64.83% Cork Bohemians 0 866 14.14% 21.04%
23 1934-02-04 26.02 Bohemian 1 995 17.09% @ Dundalk 0 1060 61.73% 21.19%
24 1934-01-07 25.59 Bray Unknowns 2 851 14.61% @ St. James Gate 1 947 64.33% 21.06%
25 1933-11-18 25.56 Bohemian 3 875 11.60% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1017 67.55% 20.85%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1933-12-24 63.8 @ Cork FC 3 1110 68.45% Bohemian 3 954 10.78% 20.77%
2 1933-11-12 63.7 @ St. James Gate 3 993 68.10% Cork Bohemians 3 842 11.10% 20.80%
3 1933-10-29 59.4 @ Drumconda 2 939 57.94% Dolphin 2 914 20.75% 21.31%
4 1933-11-25 59.4 @ Bohemian 2 901 33.09% Dundalk 2 1071 45.55% 21.36%
5 1933-12-30 59.4 @ Bohemian 2 957 56.68% St. James Gate 2 945 21.98% 21.34%
6 1933-11-18 59.3 Bohemian 3 875 11.60% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1017 67.55% 20.85%
7 1933-12-03 59.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 976 47.57% Cork FC 2 1041 30.99% 21.44%
8 1933-12-24 59.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1007 49.08% Dundalk 2 1060 29.48% 21.44%
9 1934-03-11 58.7 Drumconda 4 905 24.28% @ St. James Gate 3 896 54.34% 21.38%
10 1933-11-04 54.2 @ Bohemian 1 889 49.79% Drumconda 1 936 28.77% 21.43%
11 1933-11-05 54.2 @ Cork Bohemians 1 840 28.96% Dundalk 1 1042 49.76% 21.28%
12 1933-11-11 54.2 @ Shelbourne 1 964 49.30% Shamrock Rovers 1 1015 29.27% 21.44%
13 1933-11-19 54.2 @ Cork Bohemians 1 846 40.54% Shelbourne 1 962 38.03% 21.44%
14 1933-12-09 54.2 @ Bohemian 1 933 56.29% Dolphin 1 925 22.36% 21.35%
15 1934-02-11 54.2 @ Bray Unknowns 1 861 48.00% Drumconda 1 922 30.56% 21.44%
16 1934-02-17 54.2 @ Drumconda 1 924 48.59% Shelbourne 1 981 29.97% 21.44%
17 1934-03-11 53.5 @ Bray Unknowns 5 774 23.13% Dundalk 3 1027 55.76% 21.11%
18 1934-01-07 53.4 Bray Unknowns 2 851 14.61% @ St. James Gate 1 947 64.33% 21.06%
19 1933-12-10 52.1 Shamrock Rovers 2 975 18.87% @ St. James Gate 1 1020 59.88% 21.25%
20 1933-11-26 51.2 @ Bray Unknowns 3 861 38.56% Shamrock Rovers 2 992 40.02% 21.42%
21 1933-11-04 50.8 Cork FC 4 1010 24.68% @ Shelbourne 2 997 53.93% 21.39%
22 1934-01-07 50.7 @ Cork FC 0 1116 69.84% Shelbourne 0 936 9.53% 20.64%
23 1934-01-20 50.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1025 63.15% Shelbourne 0 943 15.73% 21.12%
24 1934-01-21 50.4 @ Cork Bohemians 0 736 31.08% St. James Gate 0 922 47.60% 21.32%
25 1934-01-21 50.4 @ Dolphin 0 972 37.62% Cork FC 0 1109 40.96% 21.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1934-01-07 23.3 @ Dundalk 3 1043 75.13% Cork Bohemians 0 744 5.09% 19.78%
2 1934-01-27 24.4 @ Shelbourne 3 949 71.45% Cork Bohemians 0 738 8.11% 20.44%
3 1933-10-29 25.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 970 64.83% Cork Bohemians 0 866 14.14% 21.04%
4 1934-01-20 27.8 @ Dundalk 2 1050 69.97% Drumconda 0 868 9.41% 20.62%
5 1933-12-17 28.1 @ Dundalk 3 1033 59.15% St. James Gate 0 996 19.58% 21.27%
6 1933-11-19 28.3 @ Drumconda 3 920 58.57% Bray Unknowns 0 889 20.14% 21.29%
7 1933-11-26 28.4 @ Dolphin 3 871 58.06% Cork Bohemians 0 845 20.64% 21.30%
8 1934-03-11 29.0 @ Cork FC 3 1053 56.25% Shamrock Rovers 0 1045 22.40% 21.35%
9 1934-02-25 29.1 @ Cork FC 4 1034 72.58% Cork Bohemians 1 799 7.15% 20.28%
10 1933-12-10 29.8 @ Cork FC 4 1042 51.00% Dundalk 0 1080 27.58% 21.42%
11 1933-11-19 30.0 @ Dundalk 4 1059 69.57% Dolphin 1 884 9.76% 20.66%
12 1933-11-12 30.5 @ Cork FC 4 1043 67.79% Dolphin 1 897 11.38% 20.83%
13 1934-03-18 31.3 @ Dolphin 3 938 48.55% Dundalk 0 995 30.01% 21.44%
14 1933-10-20 31.9 @ Dundalk 2 1001 56.46% Shamrock Rovers 0 990 22.19% 21.34%
15 1933-10-29 32.1 @ Dundalk 2 1021 55.61% Shelbourne 0 1019 23.03% 21.36%
16 1933-12-17 32.4 @ Dolphin 4 928 61.30% Bray Unknowns 1 868 17.50% 21.20%
17 1933-12-17 32.6 Cork FC 4 1089 60.80% @ Cork Bohemians 1 786 18.32% 20.88%
18 1933-12-03 32.9 @ Dundalk 5 1070 70.54% Bray Unknowns 2 877 8.90% 20.56%
19 1933-12-16 33.1 @ Bohemian 2 930 52.47% Shelbourne 0 955 26.12% 21.41%
20 1934-02-07 33.5 @ Bohemian 3 1021 68.08% Bray Unknowns 1 870 11.11% 20.80%
21 1933-12-02 33.7 @ Dolphin 2 900 50.47% Shelbourne 0 941 28.10% 21.43%
22 1933-12-23 33.7 @ Drumconda 3 907 67.58% Cork Bohemians 1 765 11.57% 20.85%
23 1934-03-02 33.8 @ Cork FC 3 1043 67.16% St. James Gate 1 907 11.96% 20.88%
24 1933-12-09 34.0 @ Shelbourne 5 916 50.99% Drumconda 1 954 27.59% 21.42%
25 1934-02-16 34.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1026 66.47% St. James Gate 1 900 12.60% 20.93%