1934-35 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dolphin

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

St. James Gate

8.98 points above expected

27 points · 18.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Waterford

7.51 points below expected

12 points · 19.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dolphin	18	12	4	2	28	48	21	+27	22.19	+5.81
2	St. James Gate	18	12	3	3	27	46	33	+13	18.02	+8.98
3	Sligo Rovers	18	8	4	6	20	44	30	+14	21.41	-1.41
4	Bohemian	18	9	2	7	20	44	36	+8	22.43	-2.43
5	Dundalk	18	8	4	6	20	37	32	+5	18.25	+1.75
6	Shamrock Rovers	18	5	6	7	16	27	33	-6	16.99	-0.99
7	Bray Unknowns	18	6	3	9	15	39	56	-17	11.63	+3.37
8	Waterford	18	4	4	10	12	43	54	-11	19.51	-7.51
9	Drumconda	18	4	4	10	12	22	39	-17	14.40	-2.40
10	Cork FC	18	3	4	11	10	30	46	-16	15.17	-5.17

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	St. James Gate	27	18.02	+8.98
2	Dolphin	28	22.19	+5.81
3	Bray Unknowns	15	11.63	+3.37
4	Dundalk	20	18.25	+1.75
5	Shamrock Rovers	16	16.99	-0.99

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Waterford	12	19.51	-7.51
2	Cork FC	10	15.17	-5.17
3	Bohemian	20	22.43	-2.43
4	Drumconda	12	14.40	-2.40
5	Sligo Rovers	20	21.41	-1.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bray Unknowns	3	Feb 23 – Mar 3	1 in 102
2	St. James Gate	5	Jan 6 – Feb 3	1 in 29
3	Dolphin	4	Jan 6 – Feb 2	1 in 23
4	Bohemian	3	Nov 18 – Dec 1	1 in 15
5	Dundalk	3	Dec 9 – Dec 23	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Drumconda	4	Dec 2 – Dec 23	1 in 32
2	Cork FC	4	Jan 12 – Feb 3	1 in 19
3	Shamrock Rovers	3	Dec 2 – Dec 15	1 in 18
4	Bohemian	2	Mar 20 – Mar 27	1 in 10
5	Sligo Rovers	2	Oct 28 – Nov 3	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sligo Rovers	8	Nov 11 – Dec 30	1 in 38
2	St. James Gate	9	Jan 6 – Mar 20	1 in 31
3	Dolphin	11	Dec 16 – Apr 3	1 in 26
4	Dundalk	7	Dec 9 – Jan 27	1 in 26
5	Drumconda	5	Oct 27 – Nov 25	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cork FC	10	Dec 23 – Mar 3	1 in 42
2	Waterford	7	Dec 9 – Jan 26	1 in 25
3	Shamrock Rovers	6	Nov 25 – Dec 30	1 in 14
4	Drumconda	5	Nov 25 – Dec 23	1 in 11
5	Bray Unknowns	5	Nov 4 – Dec 2	1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Dolphin	1071	28	+63	8	7.0	+1.0
St. James Gate	980	27	+61	9	5.7	+3.3
Sligo Rovers	928	20	-32	6	7.2	-1.2
Dundalk	895	20	-70	4	6.5	-2.5
Bohemian	870	20	-96	3	5.2	-2.2
Shamrock Rovers	798	16	+12	4	3.6	+0.4
Bray Unknowns	778	15	+67	6	3.4	+2.6
Waterford	815	12	+37	6	4.9	+1.1
Drumconda	674	12	-45	1	3.2	-2.2
Cork FC	764	10	+4	3	3.1	-0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	BU	COR	DOL	DRU	DUN	SR	SR	SJG	WAT
Bohemian	—	2-0-0 3.61	1-0-1 4.12	1-0-1 2.78	0-1-1 4.00	0-0-2 3.63	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.01	2-0-0 3.18
Bray Unknowns	0-0-2 1.95	—	2-0-0 2.09	0-1-1 1.44	2-0-0 2.28	1-0-1 1.47	0-1-1 2.09	1-1-0 1.15	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-2 1.96
Cork FC	1-0-1 1.44	0-0-2 3.47	—	0-0-2 2.09	0-0-2 3.07	1-1-0 2.53	1-1-0 2.24	0-1-1 1.94	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 2.52
Dolphin	1-0-1 2.77	1-1-0 4.13	2-0-0 3.47	—	1-1-0 4.63	1-1-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.45	2-0-0 2.82	0-1-1 3.64	2-0-0 3.52
Drumconda	1-1-0 1.56	0-0-2 3.27	2-0-0 2.48	0-1-1 0.95	—	0-0-2 2.04	1-0-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.89	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 2.61
Dundalk	2-0-0 1.93	1-0-1 4.09	0-1-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.45	2-0-0 3.53	—	0-1-1 3.16	1-1-0 2.39	0-0-2 2.67	2-0-0 2.81
Shamrock Rovers	0-1-1 1.95	1-1-0 3.47	0-1-1 3.31	0-0-2 2.12	1-0-1 3.19	1-1-0 2.39	—	0-1-1 1.86	1-0-1 2.68	1-1-0 1.99
Sligo Rovers	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 4.42	1-1-0 3.62	0-0-2 2.73	2-0-0 3.67	0-1-1 3.16	1-1-0 3.70	—	1-0-1 3.19	2-0-0 2.57
St. James Gate	1-0-1 2.54	2-0-0 3.58	2-0-0 3.92	1-1-0 1.91	1-1-0 3.26	2-0-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.36	—	1-1-0 2.29
Waterford	0-0-2 2.37	2-0-0 3.60	1-1-0 3.04	0-0-2 2.05	1-1-0 2.95	0-0-2 2.74	0-1-1 3.56	0-0-2 2.98	0-1-1 3.27	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.49	+4.9
Allowed	0.56	-4.2
Differential	0.86	+3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	2.78%	—	12.78%
1	2.78%	8.89%	5.00%	6.11%	2.78%	2.78%	28.33%
2	3.89%	5.00%	8.89%	3.33%	2.78%	1.67%	25.56%
3	1.11%	6.11%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	2.78%	15.56%
4	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	1.11%	—	0.56%	10.00%
5+	—	2.78%	1.67%	2.78%	0.56%	—	7.78%
Total	12.78%	28.33%	25.56%	15.56%	10.00%	7.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.11	+0.00
SD	1.60	1.60	2.31
CV	0.76	0.76	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	2.00	+0.44
SD	1.58	1.71	2.66
CV	0.65	0.86	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	3.11	-0.94
SD	1.38	2.17	2.60
CV	0.64	0.70	—
Max	5	8	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	50.00%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	2.56	-0.89
SD	1.41	1.50	1.97
CV	0.85	0.59	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.17	+1.50
SD	1.81	1.15	1.92
CV	0.68	0.99	—
Max	7	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.17	-0.94
SD	1.11	1.50	1.92
CV	0.91	0.69	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.78	+0.28
SD	1.51	1.17	1.93
CV	0.74	0.66	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.83	-0.33
SD	1.04	1.20	1.61
CV	0.70	0.65	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	50.00%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	1.67	+0.78
SD	2.04	1.03	2.51
CV	0.83	0.62	—
Max	8	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	1.83	+0.72
SD	1.50	1.34	1.64
CV	0.59	0.73	—
Max	6	4	+3
Min	1	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.39	3.00	-0.61
SD	1.97	2.06	2.95
CV	0.83	0.69	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dolphin	1071	28	22.19	+5.81	97.0%	15	16	20	22	24	27	31
St. James Gate	980	27	18.02	+8.98	99.0%	9	12	15	18	20	24	28
Sligo Rovers	928	20	21.41	-1.41	41.0%	14	17	19	21	24	26	29
Dundalk	895	20	18.25	+1.75	77.0%	11	12	15	18	20	25	30
Bohemian	870	20	22.43	-2.43	25.0%	14	17	20	23	24	27	30
Waterford	815	12	19.51	-7.51	2.0%	11	13	17	20	22	25	27
Shamrock Rovers	798	16	16.99	-0.99	43.0%	5	11	15	18	19	21	26
Bray Unknowns	778	15	11.63	+3.37	87.0%	5	5	9	12	13	17	20
Cork FC	764	10	15.17	-5.17	9.0%	7	9	13	15	17	21	22
Drumconda	674	12	14.40	-2.40	34.0%	7	9	12	14	17	21	25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+12.22%

Slight Edge

45.56%21.11%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 42.68 Elo pts.

243 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.40 goals

Neutral

-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.6

Wide Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

32%

Dolphin, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.77 * Some Luck: 2.77 to 4.15 * Lucky: 4.15 to 5.53 * Wild Swing: 5.53 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 * Close: 1.34 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.76 points

Lucky

03.469

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.80

01.684

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.00%

St. James Gate

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

2.00%

Waterford

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 115.96

1.64

Coin-Flip Parity

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

Clear Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Few

0%48%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.36

Very Even

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.85

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

-0.25

Weak Carryover

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

38%

Very Upset-Prone

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.

Probability calibration

0.03

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.50

Overconfident

0.3457511.001.65425

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.193

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1780.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dolphin	32.00%	24.00%	13.00%	9.00%	12.00%	5.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—	—
St. James Gate	3.00%	13.00%	10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	17.00%	11.00%	14.00%	7.00%	2.00%
Sligo Rovers	18.00%	20.00%	20.00%	18.00%	11.00%	2.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Bohemian	26.00%	24.00%	22.00%	13.00%	5.00%	6.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—	—
Dundalk	8.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%	14.00%	19.00%	15.00%	9.00%	9.00%	2.00%
Shamrock Rovers	3.00%	—	5.00%	17.00%	17.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.00%	11.00%	5.00%
Bray Unknowns	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	3.00%	10.00%	9.00%	21.00%	55.00%
Waterford	9.00%	11.00%	14.00%	14.00%	11.00%	16.00%	16.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%
Drumconda	1.00%	—	3.00%	3.00%	11.00%	10.00%	8.00%	15.00%	24.00%	25.00%
Cork FC	—	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	7.00%	7.00%	14.00%	31.00%	24.00%	7.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Bohemian	100%
Bray Unknowns	100%
Cork FC	100%
Dolphin	100%
Drumconda	100%
Dundalk	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Sligo Rovers	100%
St. James Gate	100%
Waterford	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1934-10-27	Drumconda	D 2-2	55.9	874	828	53.97%	22.26%	23.77%	+0.37	-2.1	1
1934-10-27	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	55.9	828	874	23.77%	22.26%	53.97%	-0.37	+2.1	1
1934-10-28	Bray Unknowns	L 3-5	54.7	870	792	57.30%	22.17%	20.53%	+0.50	-32.2	0
1934-10-28	@ Cork FC	W 5-3	54.7	792	870	20.53%	22.17%	57.30%	-0.50	+32.2	2
1934-10-28	Dundalk	W 2-0	34.4	844	836	49.40%	22.34%	28.25%	+0.21	+24.3	2
1934-10-28	@ Dolphin	L 0-2	34.4	836	844	28.25%	22.34%	49.40%	-0.21	-24.3	0
1934-10-28	Waterford	W 3-2	52.7	848	1012	26.53%	22.19%	51.28%	-0.50	+18.8	2
1934-10-28	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	52.7	1012	848	51.28%	22.19%	26.53%	+0.50	-18.8	0
1934-10-28	St. James Gate	L 2-3	53.4	856	813	53.51%	22.27%	24.22%	+0.35	-19.5	0
1934-10-28	@ Sligo Rovers	W 3-2	53.4	813	856	24.22%	22.27%	53.51%	-0.35	+19.5	2
1934-11-03	Sligo Rovers	W 3-0	30.7	868	836	52.32%	22.30%	25.39%	+0.31	+32.4	4
1934-11-03	@ Dolphin	L 0-3	30.7	836	868	25.39%	22.30%	52.32%	-0.31	-32.4	0
1934-11-04	Bohemian	L 0-4	34.2	824	872	41.96%	22.39%	35.65%	-0.02	-63.2	2
1934-11-04	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-0	34.2	872	824	35.65%	22.39%	41.96%	+0.02	+63.2	3
1934-11-04	Cork FC	L 0-1	42.9	812	837	45.05%	22.38%	32.57%	+0.07	-18.7	0
1934-11-04	@ Dundalk	W 1-0	42.9	837	812	32.57%	22.38%	45.05%	-0.07	+18.7	2
1934-11-04	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	43.1	830	867	43.49%	22.39%	34.13%	+0.02	+14.1	3
1934-11-04	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	43.1	867	830	34.13%	22.39%	43.49%	-0.02	-14.1	2
1934-11-04	St. James Gate	D 3-3	60.4	994	833	64.57%	21.78%	13.65%	+0.84	-3.1	1
1934-11-04	@ Waterford	D 3-3	60.4	833	994	13.65%	21.78%	64.57%	-0.84	+3.1	3
1934-11-10	Dundalk	L 2-3	56.1	935	793	63.11%	21.88%	15.00%	+0.76	-23.0	3
1934-11-10	@ Bohemian	W 3-2	56.1	793	935	15.00%	21.88%	63.11%	-0.76	+23.0	2
1934-11-11	Dolphin	L 1-2	45.7	856	901	42.51%	22.39%	35.10%	-0.01	-16.8	2
1934-11-11	@ Cork FC	W 2-1	45.7	901	856	35.10%	22.39%	42.51%	+0.01	+16.8	6
1934-11-11	Bray Unknowns	W 3-1	35.8	853	761	58.70%	22.11%	19.19%	+0.56	+15.2	4
1934-11-11	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	35.8	761	853	19.19%	22.11%	58.70%	-0.56	-15.2	2
1934-11-11	Waterford	W 8-2	43.1	804	991	23.97%	22.11%	53.92%	-0.59	+78.5	2
1934-11-11	@ Sligo Rovers	L 2-8	43.1	991	804	53.92%	22.11%	23.97%	+0.59	-78.6	1
1934-11-11	Drumconda	D 1-1	51.8	836	844	47.37%	22.37%	30.26%	+0.14	-1.5	4
1934-11-11	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	51.8	844	836	30.26%	22.37%	47.37%	-0.14	+1.5	4
1934-11-17	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	43.3	834	868	43.95%	22.38%	33.66%	+0.04	-30.0	4
1934-11-17	@ St. James Gate	W 3-1	43.3	868	834	33.66%	22.38%	43.95%	-0.04	+30.0	6
1934-11-18	Dolphin	D 1-1	51.8	745	918	25.60%	22.17%	52.23%	-0.53	+2.4	3
1934-11-18	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	51.8	918	745	52.23%	22.17%	25.60%	+0.53	-2.4	7
1934-11-18	Cork FC	W 4-1	36.1	845	839	49.15%	22.35%	28.50%	+0.20	+30.0	6
1934-11-18	@ Drumconda	L 1-4	36.1	839	845	28.50%	22.35%	49.15%	-0.20	-30.0	2
1934-11-18	Dundalk	D 1-1	51.8	882	816	56.10%	22.20%	21.70%	+0.45	-3.2	3
1934-11-18	@ Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	51.8	816	882	21.70%	22.20%	56.10%	-0.45	+3.2	3
1934-11-18	Bohemian	L 1-4	42.1	912	912	48.37%	22.36%	29.28%	+0.17	-46.0	1
1934-11-18	@ Waterford	W 4-1	42.1	912	912	29.28%	22.36%	48.37%	-0.17	+46.0	5
1934-11-24	Bohemian	L 1-2	45.7	915	958	42.67%	22.39%	34.94%	+0.00	-16.9	7
1934-11-24	@ Dolphin	W 2-1	45.7	958	915	34.94%	22.39%	42.67%	+0.00	+16.9	7
1934-11-25	St. James Gate	L 3-6	46.0	748	804	40.84%	22.39%	36.78%	-0.06	-32.0	3
1934-11-25	@ Bray Unknowns	W 6-3	46.0	804	748	36.78%	22.39%	40.84%	+0.06	+32.0	6
1934-11-25	Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	51.8	809	879	38.95%	22.38%	38.67%	-0.11	-0.0	3
1934-11-25	@ Cork FC	D 1-1	51.8	879	809	38.67%	22.38%	38.95%	+0.11	+0.0	4
1934-11-25	Shamrock Rovers	D 0-0	49.0	819	898	37.64%	22.37%	39.99%	-0.15	+0.2	4
1934-11-25	@ Dundalk	D 0-0	49.0	898	819	39.99%	22.37%	37.64%	+0.15	-0.2	7
1934-11-25	Waterford	D 1-1	51.8	875	866	49.56%	22.34%	28.09%	+0.21	-1.9	7
1934-11-25	@ Drumconda	D 1-1	51.8	866	875	28.09%	22.34%	49.56%	-0.21	+1.9	2
1934-12-01	Cork FC	W 4-1	31.4	975	809	64.92%	21.75%	13.33%	+0.86	+15.6	9
1934-12-01	@ Bohemian	L 1-4	31.4	809	975	13.33%	21.75%	64.92%	-0.86	-15.6	3
1934-12-02	Dolphin	L 0-2	40.4	898	898	48.36%	22.36%	29.29%	+0.17	-37.6	7
1934-12-02	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	40.4	898	898	29.29%	22.36%	48.36%	-0.17	+37.5	9
1934-12-02	Drumconda	W 4-0	30.2	879	873	49.13%	22.35%	28.53%	+0.20	+46.5	6
1934-12-02	@ Sligo Rovers	L 0-4	30.2	873	879	28.53%	22.35%	49.13%	-0.20	-46.5	7
1934-12-02	Dundalk	W 3-1	38.2	836	819	50.49%	22.33%	27.18%	+0.24	+20.4	8
1934-12-02	@ St. James Gate	L 1-3	38.2	819	836	27.18%	22.33%	50.49%	-0.24	-20.4	4
1934-12-02	Bray Unknowns	W 8-1	29.6	868	716	63.89%	21.83%	14.28%	+0.80	+35.9	4
1934-12-02	@ Waterford	L 1-8	29.6	716	868	14.28%	21.83%	63.89%	-0.80	-35.9	3
1934-12-08	Sligo Rovers	L 1-2	49.6	991	926	55.98%	22.21%	21.81%	+0.44	-21.5	9
1934-12-08	@ Bohemian	W 2-1	49.6	926	991	21.81%	22.21%	55.98%	-0.44	+21.5	8
1934-12-09	Drumconda	W 2-0	40.6	680	827	28.58%	22.25%	49.17%	-0.43	+38.1	5
1934-12-09	@ Bray Unknowns	L 0-2	40.6	827	680	49.17%	22.25%	28.58%	+0.43	-38.1	7
1934-12-09	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-1	41.5	794	860	39.40%	22.38%	38.21%	-0.10	+26.8	5
1934-12-09	@ Cork FC	L 1-3	41.5	860	794	38.21%	22.38%	39.40%	+0.10	-26.8	7
1934-12-09	St. James Gate	L 2-4	51.6	936	857	57.41%	22.16%	20.43%	+0.50	-34.1	9
1934-12-09	@ Dolphin	W 4-2	51.6	857	936	20.43%	22.16%	57.41%	-0.50	+34.1	10
1934-12-09	Waterford	W 2-1	46.0	799	904	34.02%	22.34%	43.64%	-0.26	+17.2	6
1934-12-09	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	46.0	904	799	43.64%	22.34%	34.02%	+0.26	-17.2	4
1934-12-15	Dundalk	L 0-4	35.1	789	816	44.84%	22.38%	32.78%	+0.06	-66.8	7
1934-12-15	@ Drumconda	W 4-0	35.1	816	789	32.78%	22.38%	44.84%	-0.06	+66.8	8
1934-12-15	Bohemian	L 2-5	40.3	833	969	29.96%	22.28%	47.76%	-0.38	-27.0	7
1934-12-15	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 5-2	40.3	969	833	47.76%	22.28%	29.96%	+0.38	+27.0	11
1934-12-16	Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	56.2	947	718	69.04%	21.33%	9.63%	+1.12	-4.5	9
1934-12-16	@ Sligo Rovers	D 2-2	56.2	718	947	9.63%	21.33%	69.04%	-1.12	+4.5	6
1934-12-16	Dolphin	L 3-7	44.7	887	902	46.49%	22.37%	31.14%	+0.11	-44.5	4
1934-12-16	@ Waterford	W 7-3	44.7	902	887	31.14%	22.37%	46.49%	-0.11	+44.4	11
1934-12-22	St. James Gate	W 3-1	35.4	996	891	59.97%	22.06%	17.97%	+0.61	+14.4	13
1934-12-22	@ Bohemian	L 1-3	35.4	891	996	17.97%	22.06%	59.97%	-0.61	-14.4	10
1934-12-23	Waterford	D 2-2	55.9	820	842	45.58%	22.38%	32.04%	+0.09	-0.9	6
1934-12-23	@ Cork FC	D 2-2	55.9	842	820	32.04%	22.38%	45.58%	-0.09	+0.9	5
1934-12-23	Drumconda	W 5-1	28.6	946	722	68.74%	21.37%	9.89%	+1.10	+15.3	13
1934-12-23	@ Dolphin	L 1-5	28.6	722	946	9.89%	21.37%	68.74%	-1.10	-15.3	7
1934-12-23	Bray Unknowns	W 3-2	41.3	883	722	64.52%	21.78%	13.69%	+0.84	+6.2	10
1934-12-23	@ Dundalk	L 2-3	41.3	722	883	13.69%	21.78%	64.52%	-0.84	-6.2	6
1934-12-23	Sligo Rovers	D 2-2	55.9	806	943	29.93%	22.27%	47.80%	-0.38	+1.2	8
1934-12-23	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	55.9	943	806	47.80%	22.27%	29.93%	+0.38	-1.2	10
1934-12-29	Bohemian	W 1-0	48.6	707	1011	13.64%	21.47%	64.89%	-1.08	+26.3	9
1934-12-29	@ Drumconda	L 0-1	48.6	1011	707	64.89%	21.47%	13.64%	+1.08	-26.3	13
1934-12-30	Cork FC	W 4-3	54.2	716	820	34.22%	22.34%	43.44%	-0.25	+15.9	8
1934-12-30	@ Bray Unknowns	L 3-4	54.2	820	716	43.44%	22.34%	34.22%	+0.25	-15.9	6
1934-12-30	Dolphin	D 2-2	55.9	889	961	38.58%	22.38%	39.04%	-0.12	+0.0	11
1934-12-30	@ Dundalk	D 2-2	55.9	961	889	39.04%	22.38%	38.58%	+0.12	-0.0	14
1934-12-30	Sligo Rovers	L 1-4	39.4	876	941	39.60%	22.38%	38.02%	-0.09	-38.9	10
1934-12-30	@ St. James Gate	W 4-1	39.4	941	876	38.02%	22.38%	39.60%	+0.09	+38.9	12
1934-12-30	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	51.8	843	808	52.71%	22.29%	25.00%	+0.32	-2.6	6
1934-12-30	@ Waterford	D 1-1	51.8	808	843	25.00%	22.29%	52.71%	-0.32	+2.5	9
1935-01-05	Bray Unknowns	W 5-3	39.7	985	732	70.32%	21.15%	8.53%	+1.21	+6.2	15
1935-01-05	@ Bohemian	L 3-5	39.7	732	985	8.53%	21.15%	70.32%	-1.21	-6.2	8
1935-01-06	Dundalk	D 2-2	55.9	804	889	36.72%	22.37%	40.91%	-0.18	+0.3	7
1935-01-06	@ Cork FC	D 2-2	55.9	889	804	40.91%	22.37%	36.72%	+0.18	-0.3	12
1935-01-06	Drumconda	W 2-1	39.0	810	733	57.21%	22.17%	20.62%	+0.49	+9.4	11
1935-01-06	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	39.0	733	810	20.62%	22.17%	57.21%	-0.49	-9.4	9
1935-01-06	Dolphin	L 0-1	44.6	980	961	50.76%	22.33%	26.92%	+0.25	-20.8	12
1935-01-06	@ Sligo Rovers	W 1-0	44.6	961	980	26.92%	22.33%	50.76%	-0.25	+20.8	16
1935-01-06	Waterford	W 5-4	52.4	837	841	47.99%	22.36%	29.65%	+0.16	+11.5	12
1935-01-06	@ St. James Gate	L 4-5	52.4	841	837	29.65%	22.36%	47.99%	-0.16	-11.5	6
1935-01-12	Cork FC	W 3-1	33.6	982	804	65.80%	21.68%	12.52%	+0.91	+10.4	18
1935-01-12	@ Dolphin	L 1-3	33.6	804	982	12.52%	21.68%	65.80%	-0.91	-10.5	7
1935-01-13	Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	55.9	726	820	35.56%	22.36%	42.08%	-0.21	+0.4	9
1935-01-13	@ Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	55.9	820	726	42.08%	22.36%	35.56%	+0.21	-0.4	12
1935-01-13	Bohemian	W 5-1	38.9	889	991	34.45%	22.34%	43.21%	-0.24	+53.9	14
1935-01-13	@ Dundalk	L 1-5	38.9	991	889	43.21%	22.34%	34.45%	+0.24	-53.9	15
1935-01-13	St. James Gate	L 0-2	35.3	724	849	31.33%	22.30%	46.37%	-0.34	-26.4	9
1935-01-13	@ Drumconda	W 2-0	35.3	849	724	46.37%	22.30%	31.33%	+0.34	+26.4	14
1935-01-13	Sligo Rovers	L 1-3	39.2	829	960	30.65%	22.29%	47.06%	-0.36	-22.5	6
1935-01-13	@ Waterford	W 3-1	39.2	960	829	47.06%	22.29%	30.65%	+0.36	+22.5	14
1935-01-26	Waterford	W 4-0	26.3	937	807	62.11%	21.94%	15.94%	+0.71	+28.4	17
1935-01-26	@ Bohemian	L 0-4	26.3	807	937	15.94%	21.94%	62.11%	-0.71	-28.4	6
1935-01-27	Drumconda	L 1-2	50.5	794	697	59.09%	22.10%	18.81%	+0.57	-22.6	7
1935-01-27	@ Cork FC	W 2-1	50.5	697	794	18.81%	22.10%	59.09%	-0.57	+22.6	11
1935-01-27	Bray Unknowns	W 6-1	27.3	993	726	71.02%	21.04%	7.94%	+1.27	+15.2	20
1935-01-27	@ Dolphin	L 1-6	27.3	726	993	7.94%	21.04%	71.02%	-1.27	-15.2	9
1935-01-27	Sligo Rovers	W 4-2	44.7	943	982	43.22%	22.39%	34.39%	+0.01	+22.1	16
1935-01-27	@ Dundalk	L 2-4	44.7	982	943	34.39%	22.39%	43.22%	-0.01	-22.1	14
1935-01-27	St. James Gate	L 0-2	38.2	819	875	40.87%	22.39%	36.74%	-0.06	-32.6	12
1935-01-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	38.2	875	819	36.74%	22.39%	40.87%	+0.06	+32.6	16
1935-01-30	Cork FC	W 4-2	38.9	908	771	62.68%	21.91%	15.41%	+0.74	+11.3	18
1935-01-30	@ St. James Gate	L 2-4	38.9	771	908	15.41%	21.91%	62.68%	-0.74	-11.3	7
1935-02-02	Dolphin	L 0-4	34.5	965	1008	42.76%	22.39%	34.85%	+0.00	-64.2	17
1935-02-02	@ Bohemian	W 4-0	34.5	1008	965	34.85%	22.39%	42.76%	+0.00	+64.2	22
1935-02-03	Dundalk	W 3-1	45.9	786	965	24.91%	22.14%	52.94%	-0.56	+35.2	14
1935-02-03	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	45.9	965	786	52.94%	22.14%	24.91%	+0.56	-35.2	16
1935-02-03	Cork FC	W 5-1	29.0	960	760	67.29%	21.54%	11.18%	+1.00	+17.2	16
1935-02-03	@ Sligo Rovers	L 1-5	29.0	760	960	11.18%	21.54%	67.29%	-1.00	-17.2	7
1935-02-03	Bray Unknowns	W 1-0	32.3	919	711	67.78%	21.48%	10.74%	+1.03	+5.6	20
1935-02-03	@ St. James Gate	L 0-1	32.3	711	919	10.74%	21.48%	67.78%	-1.03	-5.5	9
1935-02-03	Drumconda	W 4-2	41.1	778	720	55.24%	22.23%	22.53%	+0.42	+15.6	8
1935-02-03	@ Waterford	L 2-4	41.1	720	778	22.53%	22.23%	55.24%	-0.42	-15.6	11
1935-02-10	Waterford	L 3-5	48.4	705	794	36.31%	22.36%	41.33%	-0.19	-21.8	9
1935-02-10	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-3	48.4	794	705	41.33%	22.36%	36.31%	+0.19	+21.8	10
1935-02-16	Cork FC	D 1-1	51.8	822	742	57.42%	22.16%	20.42%	+0.50	-3.5	15
1935-02-16	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	51.8	742	822	20.42%	22.16%	57.42%	-0.50	+3.5	8
1935-02-17	Dolphin	D 2-2	56.0	925	1072	28.55%	22.24%	49.20%	-0.43	+1.4	21
1935-02-17	@ St. James Gate	D 2-2	56.0	1072	925	49.20%	22.24%	28.55%	+0.43	-1.4	23
1935-02-17	Dundalk	L 0-2	35.8	816	930	32.81%	22.32%	44.87%	-0.29	-27.4	10
1935-02-17	@ Waterford	W 2-0	35.8	930	816	44.87%	22.32%	32.81%	+0.29	+27.4	18
1935-02-23	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	51.8	901	818	57.77%	22.15%	20.08%	+0.52	-3.6	18
1935-02-23	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	51.8	818	901	20.08%	22.15%	57.77%	-0.52	+3.6	16
1935-02-23	Sligo Rovers	W 3-1	49.0	684	977	14.39%	21.54%	64.07%	-1.03	+42.4	11
1935-02-23	@ Bray Unknowns	L 1-3	49.0	977	684	64.07%	21.54%	14.39%	+1.03	-42.5	16
1935-02-24	St. James Gate	L 0-1	36.7	746	926	24.71%	22.14%	53.15%	-0.57	-11.5	8
1935-02-24	@ Cork FC	W 1-0	36.7	926	746	53.15%	22.14%	24.71%	+0.57	+11.5	23
1935-02-24	Waterford	W 3-2	39.1	1071	788	71.80%	20.91%	7.30%	+1.34	+3.4	25
1935-02-24	@ Dolphin	L 2-3	39.1	788	1071	7.30%	20.91%	71.80%	-1.34	-3.4	10
1935-02-24	Drumconda	W 4-3	43.4	957	704	70.33%	21.15%	8.52%	+1.22	+3.9	20
1935-02-24	@ Dundalk	L 3-4	43.4	704	957	8.52%	21.15%	70.33%	-1.22	-3.9	11
1935-02-27	Bray Unknowns	L 1-2	46.4	700	726	45.05%	22.38%	32.57%	+0.07	-17.7	11
1935-02-27	@ Drumconda	W 2-1	46.4	726	700	32.57%	22.38%	45.05%	-0.07	+17.7	13
1935-03-03	Dundalk	W 4-2	51.4	744	961	20.85%	21.98%	57.17%	-0.72	+33.9	15
1935-03-03	@ Bray Unknowns	L 2-4	51.4	961	744	57.17%	21.98%	20.85%	+0.72	-33.9	20
1935-03-03	Shamrock Rovers	W 4-1	32.6	935	822	60.62%	22.03%	17.36%	+0.64	+19.8	18
1935-03-03	@ Sligo Rovers	L 1-4	32.6	822	935	17.36%	22.03%	60.62%	-0.64	-19.8	16
1935-03-03	Cork FC	W 3-0	30.1	785	734	54.37%	22.25%	23.38%	+0.38	+30.2	12
1935-03-03	@ Waterford	L 0-3	30.1	734	785	23.38%	22.25%	54.37%	-0.38	-30.2	8
1935-03-07	St. James Gate	L 1-3	44.2	927	938	47.04%	22.37%	30.59%	+0.13	-31.8	20
1935-03-07	@ Dundalk	W 3-1	44.2	938	927	30.59%	22.37%	47.04%	-0.13	+31.8	25
1935-03-13	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	34.8	1074	802	71.30%	20.99%	7.71%	+1.29	+3.8	27
1935-03-13	@ Dolphin	L 1-2	34.8	802	1074	7.71%	20.99%	71.30%	-1.29	-3.8	16
1935-03-13	Bohemian	L 0-2	42.4	955	897	55.11%	22.23%	22.66%	+0.41	-42.3	18
1935-03-13	@ Sligo Rovers	W 2-0	42.4	897	955	22.66%	22.23%	55.11%	-0.41	+42.3	20
1935-03-20	Bohemian	W 3-2	45.0	969	940	52.01%	22.30%	25.68%	+0.30	+10.7	27
1935-03-20	@ St. James Gate	L 2-3	45.0	940	969	25.68%	22.30%	52.01%	-0.30	-10.7	20
1935-03-27	Bohemian	W 6-2	46.3	704	929	20.09%	21.94%	57.97%	-0.75	+59.5	10
1935-03-27	@ Cork FC	L 2-6	46.3	929	704	57.97%	21.94%	20.09%	+0.75	-59.5	20
1935-03-27	Sligo Rovers	L 1-3	35.8	683	912	19.65%	21.92%	58.43%	-0.77	-15.5	11
1935-03-27	@ Drumconda	W 3-1	35.8	912	683	58.43%	21.92%	19.65%	+0.77	+15.5	20
1935-04-03	Dolphin	D 0-0	49.5	667	1078	7.91%	20.60%	71.49%	-1.51	+7.2	12
1935-04-03	@ Drumconda	D 0-0	49.5	1078	667	71.49%	20.60%	7.91%	+1.51	-7.2	28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1934-12-29	13.64%	@ Drumconda	707	1	Bohemian	1011	0
2	1935-02-23	14.39%	@ Bray Unknowns	684	3	Sligo Rovers	977	1
3	1934-11-10	15.00%	Dundalk	793	3	@ Bohemian	935	2
4	1935-01-27	18.81%	Drumconda	697	2	@ Cork FC	794	1
5	1935-03-27	20.09%	@ Cork FC	704	6	Bohemian	929	2
6	1934-12-09	20.43%	St. James Gate	857	4	@ Dolphin	936	2
7	1934-10-28	20.53%	Bray Unknowns	792	5	@ Cork FC	870	3
8	1935-03-03	20.85%	@ Bray Unknowns	744	4	Dundalk	961	2
9	1934-12-08	21.81%	Sligo Rovers	926	2	@ Bohemian	991	1
10	1935-03-13	22.66%	Bohemian	897	2	@ Sligo Rovers	955	0
11	1934-11-11	23.97%	@ Sligo Rovers	804	8	Waterford	991	2
12	1934-10-28	24.22%	St. James Gate	813	3	@ Sligo Rovers	856	2
13	1935-02-03	24.91%	@ Shamrock Rovers	786	3	Dundalk	965	1
14	1934-10-28	26.53%	@ Shamrock Rovers	848	3	Waterford	1012	2
15	1935-01-06	26.92%	Dolphin	961	1	@ Sligo Rovers	980	0
16	1934-12-09	28.58%	@ Bray Unknowns	680	2	Drumconda	827	0
17	1934-11-18	29.28%	Bohemian	912	4	@ Waterford	912	1
18	1934-12-02	29.29%	Dolphin	898	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	898	0
19	1935-03-07	30.59%	St. James Gate	938	3	@ Dundalk	927	1
20	1934-12-16	31.14%	Dolphin	902	7	@ Waterford	887	3
21	1934-11-04	32.57%	Cork FC	837	1	@ Dundalk	812	0
22	1935-02-27	32.57%	Bray Unknowns	726	2	@ Drumconda	700	1
23	1934-12-15	32.78%	Dundalk	816	4	@ Drumconda	789	0
24	1934-11-17	33.66%	Shamrock Rovers	868	3	@ St. James Gate	834	1
25	1934-12-09	34.02%	@ Dundalk	799	2	Waterford	904	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-11-11	78.55	@ Sligo Rovers	8	804	23.97%	Waterford	2	991	53.92%	22.11%
2	1934-12-15	66.77	Dundalk	4	816	32.78%	@ Drumconda	0	789	44.84%	22.38%
3	1935-02-02	64.18	Dolphin	4	1008	34.85%	@ Bohemian	0	965	42.76%	22.39%
4	1934-11-04	63.19	Bohemian	4	872	35.65%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	824	41.96%	22.39%
5	1935-03-27	59.51	@ Cork FC	6	704	20.09%	Bohemian	2	929	57.97%	21.94%
6	1935-01-13	53.92	@ Dundalk	5	889	34.45%	Bohemian	1	991	43.21%	22.34%
7	1934-12-02	46.54	@ Sligo Rovers	4	879	49.13%	Drumconda	0	873	28.53%	22.35%
8	1934-11-18	46.00	Bohemian	4	912	29.28%	@ Waterford	1	912	48.37%	22.36%
9	1934-12-16	44.45	Dolphin	7	902	31.14%	@ Waterford	3	887	46.49%	22.37%
10	1935-02-23	42.45	@ Bray Unknowns	3	684	14.39%	Sligo Rovers	1	977	64.07%	21.54%
11	1935-03-13	42.32	Bohemian	2	897	22.66%	@ Sligo Rovers	0	955	55.11%	22.23%
12	1934-12-30	38.95	Sligo Rovers	4	941	38.02%	@ St. James Gate	1	876	39.60%	22.38%
13	1934-12-09	38.08	@ Bray Unknowns	2	680	28.58%	Drumconda	0	827	49.17%	22.25%
14	1934-12-02	37.56	Dolphin	2	898	29.29%	@ Shamrock Rovers	0	898	48.36%	22.36%
15	1934-12-02	35.94	@ Waterford	8	868	63.89%	Bray Unknowns	1	716	14.28%	21.83%
16	1935-02-03	35.25	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	786	24.91%	Dundalk	1	965	52.94%	22.14%
17	1934-12-09	34.10	St. James Gate	4	857	20.43%	@ Dolphin	2	936	57.41%	22.16%
18	1935-03-03	33.90	@ Bray Unknowns	4	744	20.85%	Dundalk	2	961	57.17%	21.98%
19	1935-01-27	32.61	St. James Gate	2	875	36.74%	@ Shamrock Rovers	0	819	40.87%	22.39%
20	1934-11-03	32.39	@ Dolphin	3	868	52.32%	Sligo Rovers	0	836	25.39%	22.30%
21	1934-10-28	32.17	Bray Unknowns	5	792	20.53%	@ Cork FC	3	870	57.30%	22.17%
22	1934-11-25	32.00	St. James Gate	6	804	36.78%	@ Bray Unknowns	3	748	40.84%	22.39%
23	1935-03-07	31.75	St. James Gate	3	938	30.59%	@ Dundalk	1	927	47.04%	22.37%
24	1935-03-03	30.25	@ Waterford	3	785	54.37%	Cork FC	0	734	23.38%	22.25%
25	1934-11-18	30.02	@ Drumconda	4	845	49.15%	Cork FC	1	839	28.50%	22.35%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-11-04	60.4	@ Waterford	3	994	64.57%	St. James Gate	3	833	13.65%	21.78%
2	1934-12-16	56.2	@ Sligo Rovers	2	947	69.04%	Bray Unknowns	2	718	9.63%	21.33%
3	1934-11-10	56.1	Dundalk	3	793	15.00%	@ Bohemian	2	935	63.11%	21.88%
4	1935-02-17	56.0	@ St. James Gate	2	925	28.55%	Dolphin	2	1072	49.20%	22.24%
5	1934-10-27	55.9	@ Bohemian	2	874	53.97%	Drumconda	2	828	23.77%	22.26%
6	1934-12-23	55.9	@ Cork FC	2	820	45.58%	Waterford	2	842	32.04%	22.38%
7	1934-12-23	55.9	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	806	29.93%	Sligo Rovers	2	943	47.80%	22.27%
8	1934-12-30	55.9	@ Dundalk	2	889	38.58%	Dolphin	2	961	39.04%	22.38%
9	1935-01-06	55.9	@ Cork FC	2	804	36.72%	Dundalk	2	889	40.91%	22.37%
10	1935-01-13	55.9	@ Bray Unknowns	2	726	35.56%	Shamrock Rovers	2	820	42.08%	22.36%
11	1934-10-28	54.7	Bray Unknowns	5	792	20.53%	@ Cork FC	3	870	57.30%	22.17%
12	1934-12-30	54.2	@ Bray Unknowns	4	716	34.22%	Cork FC	3	820	43.44%	22.34%
13	1934-10-28	53.4	St. James Gate	3	813	24.22%	@ Sligo Rovers	2	856	53.51%	22.27%
14	1934-10-28	52.7	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	848	26.53%	Waterford	2	1012	51.28%	22.19%
15	1935-01-06	52.4	@ St. James Gate	5	837	47.99%	Waterford	4	841	29.65%	22.36%
16	1934-11-11	51.8	@ St. James Gate	1	836	47.37%	Drumconda	1	844	30.26%	22.37%
17	1934-11-18	51.8	@ Bray Unknowns	1	745	25.60%	Dolphin	1	918	52.23%	22.17%
18	1934-11-18	51.8	@ Sligo Rovers	1	882	56.10%	Dundalk	1	816	21.70%	22.20%
19	1934-11-25	51.8	@ Cork FC	1	809	38.95%	Sligo Rovers	1	879	38.67%	22.38%
20	1934-11-25	51.8	@ Drumconda	1	875	49.56%	Waterford	1	866	28.09%	22.34%
21	1934-12-30	51.8	@ Waterford	1	843	52.71%	Shamrock Rovers	1	808	25.00%	22.29%
22	1935-02-16	51.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	822	57.42%	Cork FC	1	742	20.42%	22.16%
23	1935-02-23	51.8	@ Bohemian	1	901	57.77%	Shamrock Rovers	1	818	20.08%	22.15%
24	1934-12-09	51.6	St. James Gate	4	857	20.43%	@ Dolphin	2	936	57.41%	22.16%
25	1935-03-03	51.4	@ Bray Unknowns	4	744	20.85%	Dundalk	2	961	57.17%	21.98%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1935-01-26	26.3	@ Bohemian	4	937	62.11%	Waterford	0	807	15.94%	21.94%
2	1935-01-27	27.3	@ Dolphin	6	993	71.02%	Bray Unknowns	1	726	7.94%	21.04%
3	1934-12-23	28.6	@ Dolphin	5	946	68.74%	Drumconda	1	722	9.89%	21.37%
4	1935-02-03	29.0	@ Sligo Rovers	5	960	67.29%	Cork FC	1	760	11.18%	21.54%
5	1934-12-02	29.6	@ Waterford	8	868	63.89%	Bray Unknowns	1	716	14.28%	21.83%
6	1935-03-03	30.1	@ Waterford	3	785	54.37%	Cork FC	0	734	23.38%	22.25%
7	1934-12-02	30.2	@ Sligo Rovers	4	879	49.13%	Drumconda	0	873	28.53%	22.35%
8	1934-11-03	30.7	@ Dolphin	3	868	52.32%	Sligo Rovers	0	836	25.39%	22.30%
9	1934-12-01	31.4	@ Bohemian	4	975	64.92%	Cork FC	1	809	13.33%	21.75%
10	1935-02-03	32.3	@ St. James Gate	1	919	67.78%	Bray Unknowns	0	711	10.74%	21.48%
11	1935-03-03	32.6	@ Sligo Rovers	4	935	60.62%	Shamrock Rovers	1	822	17.36%	22.03%
12	1935-01-12	33.6	@ Dolphin	3	982	65.80%	Cork FC	1	804	12.52%	21.68%
13	1934-11-04	34.2	Bohemian	4	872	35.65%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	824	41.96%	22.39%
14	1934-10-28	34.4	@ Dolphin	2	844	49.40%	Dundalk	0	836	28.25%	22.34%
15	1935-02-02	34.5	Dolphin	4	1008	34.85%	@ Bohemian	0	965	42.76%	22.39%
16	1935-03-13	34.8	@ Dolphin	2	1074	71.30%	Shamrock Rovers	1	802	7.71%	20.99%
17	1934-12-15	35.1	Dundalk	4	816	32.78%	@ Drumconda	0	789	44.84%	22.38%
18	1935-01-13	35.3	St. James Gate	2	849	46.37%	@ Drumconda	0	724	31.33%	22.30%
19	1934-12-22	35.4	@ Bohemian	3	996	59.97%	St. James Gate	1	891	17.97%	22.06%
20	1934-11-11	35.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	853	58.70%	Bray Unknowns	1	761	19.19%	22.11%
21	1935-02-17	35.8	Dundalk	2	930	44.87%	@ Waterford	0	816	32.81%	22.32%
22	1935-03-27	35.8	Sligo Rovers	3	912	58.43%	@ Drumconda	1	683	19.65%	21.92%
23	1934-11-18	36.1	@ Drumconda	4	845	49.15%	Cork FC	1	839	28.50%	22.35%
24	1935-02-24	36.7	St. James Gate	1	926	53.15%	@ Cork FC	0	746	24.71%	22.14%
25	1934-12-02	38.2	@ St. James Gate	3	836	50.49%	Dundalk	1	819	27.18%	22.33%