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1950-51 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Cork Athletic

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sligo Rovers

5.71 points above expected

26 points · 20.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundalk

6.34 points below expected

12 points · 18.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cork Athletic 18 12 3 3 27 48 21 +27 24.06 +2.94
2 Sligo Rovers 18 12 2 4 26 39 23 +16 20.29 +5.71
3 Drumconda 18 8 7 3 23 38 27 +11 19.99 +3.01
4 Shelbourne 18 9 3 6 21 38 25 +13 22.70 -1.70
5 Bohemian 18 7 6 5 20 28 30 -2 15.46 +4.54
6 Shamrock Rovers 18 7 3 8 17 33 30 +3 19.02 -2.02
7 Waterford 18 5 3 10 13 26 44 -18 14.57 -1.57
8 Dundalk 18 4 4 10 12 34 45 -11 18.34 -6.34
9 Transport 18 4 4 10 12 22 37 -15 13.90 -1.90
10 Limerick 18 3 3 12 9 24 48 -24 11.67 -2.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sligo Rovers 26 20.29 +5.71
2 Bohemian 20 15.46 +4.54
3 Drumconda 23 19.99 +3.01
4 Cork Athletic 27 24.06 +2.94
5 Waterford 13 14.57 -1.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundalk 12 18.34 -6.34
2 Limerick 9 11.67 -2.67
3 Shamrock Rovers 17 19.02 -2.02
4 Transport 12 13.90 -1.90
5 Shelbourne 21 22.70 -1.70

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sligo Rovers 4 Feb 25 – Mar 26 1 in 24
2 Cork Athletic 6 Feb 11 – Mar 28 1 in 15
3 Dundalk 2 Jan 28 – Jan 28 1 in 13
4 Shelbourne 3 Dec 24 – Jan 7 1 in 10
5 Waterford 2 Dec 31 – Jan 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 4 Mar 25 – Apr 15 1 in 526
2 Shamrock Rovers 4 Jan 28 – Feb 25 1 in 89
3 Limerick 4 Dec 10 – Jan 7 1 in 21
4 Waterford 3 Dec 10 – Dec 27 1 in 20
5 Dundalk 3 Dec 24 – Jan 7 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 8 Jan 7 – Mar 2 1 in 69
2 Drumconda 6 Jan 14 – Feb 25 1 in 42
3 Transport 3 Apr 7 – Apr 17 1 in 13
4 Cork Athletic 13 Dec 24 – Mar 28 1 in 12
5 Sligo Rovers 4 Dec 24 – Jan 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 7 Jan 7 – Feb 25 1 in 37
2 Drumconda 7 Dec 24 – Jan 28 1 in 28
3 Shelbourne 4 Mar 25 – Apr 15 1 in 24
4 Dundalk 5 Dec 9 – Jan 7 1 in 15
5 Transport 8 Dec 31 – Feb 25 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Cork Athletic 1543 27 -4 6 6.9 -0.9
Sligo Rovers 1470 26 +0 7 6.4 +0.6
Drumconda 1511 23 +78 9 5.5 +3.5
Shelbourne 1437 21 -90 2 6.6 -4.6
Bohemian 1303 20 +7 4 4.1 -0.1
Shamrock Rovers 1392 17 +35 7 5.4 +1.6
Waterford 1256 13 -5 5 4.8 +0.2
Transport 1247 12 +8 4 3.4 +0.6
Dundalk 1277 12 -42 3 4.2 -1.2
Limerick 1207 9 +18 5 3.1 +1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CA DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SR TRA WAT
Bohemian —
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-1
0.93
0-2-0
2.24
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
2.04
1-1-0
1.44
2-0-0
2.02
1-1-0
2.88
1-2-0
4.55
Cork Athletic
2-0-0
4.13
 —
0-2-1
5.80
1-0-0
2.31
2-0-0
4.25
1-0-1
3.26
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.17
Drumconda
1-0-0
1.85
1-2-0
2.54
 —
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.93
0-2-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
3.26
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.51
Dundalk
0-2-0
3.32
0-0-1
0.48
0-1-1
2.74
 —
0-1-1
3.82
2-0-1
3.74
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
3.39
1-0-1
3.16
Limerick
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
1.64
1-1-0
1.74
 —
0-0-1
0.62
0-0-2
1.28
1-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.56
Shamrock Rovers
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.30
0-2-0
2.48
1-0-2
4.59
1-0-0
2.16
 —
0-1-1
1.92
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
2.99
Shelbourne
0-1-1
4.12
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.95
2-0-0
4.30
1-1-0
3.64
 —
0-0-1
1.10
2-0-1
6.25
2-0-0
3.94
Sligo Rovers
0-0-2
3.53
1-0-1
1.98
1-1-0
2.30
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-1
6.45
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-0
1.68
 —
1-1-0
3.86
2-0-0
3.10
Transport
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
1.78
2-0-0
2.17
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
2.18
1-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
1.70
 —
0-1-0
1.64
Waterford
0-2-1
3.78
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-0
1.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +6.6
Allowed 0.90 -6.1
Differential 0.92 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%3.33%4.44%5.00%1.11%1.11%19.44%
13.33%8.89%7.22%2.22%2.22%1.11%25.00%
24.44%7.22%3.33%5.56%2.78%1.11%24.44%
35.00%2.22%5.56%3.33%2.22%—18.33%
41.11%2.22%2.78%2.22%1.11%—9.44%
5+1.11%1.11%1.11%———3.33%
Total19.44%25.00%24.44%18.33%9.44%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.98
CV 0.75 0.75 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————5.56%16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.67 -0.11
SD 1.04 1.53 1.81
CV 0.67 0.92 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.17 +1.50
SD 1.57 0.92 1.86
CV 0.59 0.79 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
15.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
311.11%——11.11%5.56%—27.78%
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.50 +0.61
SD 1.13 1.38 1.65
CV 0.54 0.92 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
1—11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%—16.67%——22.22%
3——11.11%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total5.56%16.67%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.50 -0.61
SD 1.28 1.29 1.65
CV 0.68 0.52 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
2—5.56%——11.11%5.56%22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%27.78%11.11%33.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.67 -1.33
SD 1.33 1.41 1.78
CV 1.00 0.53 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%—5.56%16.67%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.67 +0.17
SD 1.25 1.14 1.72
CV 0.68 0.68 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
322.22%—11.11%———33.33%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.39 +0.72
SD 1.37 0.98 1.87
CV 0.65 0.70 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
222.22%5.56%——5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.28 +0.89
SD 1.42 1.32 1.71
CV 0.66 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%16.67%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%27.78%33.33%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.06 -0.83
SD 1.17 1.26 1.65
CV 0.95 0.61 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%44.44%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
2—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%—5.56%11.11%——22.22%
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%16.67%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.44 -1.00
SD 1.65 1.58 2.33
CV 1.14 0.65 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cork Athletic 1543 27 24.06 +2.94 86.0% 17 19 22 24 26 28 30
Drumconda 1511 23 19.99 +3.01 81.0% 11 13 17 19 23 27 30
Sligo Rovers 1470 26 20.29 +5.71 99.0% 14 16 18 20 23 25 27
Shelbourne 1437 21 22.70 -1.70 37.0% 15 18 20 22 25 29 32
Shamrock Rovers 1392 17 19.02 -2.02 34.0% 9 13 17 18 22 25 30
Bohemian 1303 20 15.46 +4.54 92.0% 7 11 13 15 18 21 24
Dundalk 1277 12 18.34 -6.34 1.0% 12 13 16 18 20 23 24
Waterford 1256 13 14.57 -1.57 41.0% 7 8 12 14 17 21 23
Transport 1247 12 13.90 -1.90 33.0% 6 8 12 14 16 20 23
Limerick 1207 9 11.67 -2.67 22.0% 5 6 10 12 13 17 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.22%
Slight Edge
45.56%21.11%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 42.68 Elo pts.
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Cork Athletic, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.66 * Some Luck: 2.66 to 3.98 * Lucky: 3.98 to 5.31 * Wild Swing: 5.31 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.19 * Close: 1.19 to 1.78 * Off: 1.78 to 2.38 * Way Off: 2.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.62 points
Some Luck
03.328
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.493
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Sligo Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Dundalk
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 121.14
1.68
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Slight Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.42
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.72
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.101
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Cork Athletic47.00%27.00%17.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%————
Sligo Rovers6.00%19.00%20.00%23.00%9.00%8.00%9.00%6.00%——
Drumconda15.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%
Shelbourne24.00%27.00%19.00%13.00%12.00%4.00%—1.00%——
Bohemian—1.00%6.00%7.00%6.00%19.00%15.00%24.00%12.00%10.00%
Shamrock Rovers7.00%8.00%13.00%13.00%21.00%12.00%12.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%
Waterford—2.00%2.00%3.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%21.00%22.00%19.00%
Dundalk1.00%3.00%8.00%18.00%21.00%22.00%14.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%
Transport—2.00%2.00%—5.00%9.00%19.00%23.00%23.00%17.00%
Limerick————2.00%2.00%9.00%8.00%31.00%48.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Cork Athletic 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Sligo Rovers 100%
Transport 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-12-09 Dundalk D 1-156.7 1429 1399 52.15% 22.29% 25.56%+0.43 -2.1 1
1950-12-09 @ Drumconda D 1-156.7 1399 1429 25.56% 22.29% 52.15%-0.43 +2.1 1
1950-12-10 Cork Athletic D 2-261.4 1405 1411 47.63% 22.36% 30.01%+0.21 -1.0 1
1950-12-10 @ Shelbourne D 2-261.4 1411 1405 30.01% 22.36% 47.63%-0.21 +1.0 1
1950-12-10 Bohemian L 1-251.8 1346 1245 59.53% 22.02% 18.44%+0.83 -19.4 0
1950-12-10 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-151.8 1245 1346 18.44% 22.02% 59.53%-0.83 +19.4 2
1950-12-10 Limerick W 4-243.8 1331 1312 50.68% 22.32% 27.00%+0.35 +15.5 2
1950-12-10 @ Transport L 2-443.8 1312 1331 27.00% 22.32% 50.68%-0.35 -15.5 0
1950-12-10 Shamrock Rovers L 0-339.7 1386 1378 49.32% 22.34% 28.34%+0.29 -47.2 0
1950-12-10 @ Waterford W 3-039.7 1378 1386 28.34% 22.34% 49.32%-0.29 +47.2 2
1950-12-16 Transport W 2-142.2 1427 1346 57.61% 22.11% 20.27%+0.72 +7.8 3
1950-12-16 @ Drumconda L 1-242.2 1346 1427 20.27% 22.11% 57.61%-0.72 -7.8 2
1950-12-16 Cork Athletic W 1-041.6 1426 1412 50.11% 22.33% 27.56%+0.33 +10.8 4
1950-12-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-141.6 1412 1426 27.56% 22.33% 50.11%-0.33 -10.8 1
1950-12-17 Bohemian D 3-363.7 1401 1265 62.65% 21.83% 15.52%+1.04 -2.4 2
1950-12-17 @ Dundalk D 3-363.7 1265 1401 15.52% 21.83% 62.65%-1.04 +2.4 3
1950-12-23 Shamrock Rovers W 2-042.2 1267 1436 25.96% 22.14% 51.90%-0.74 +34.0 5
1950-12-23 @ Bohemian L 0-242.2 1436 1267 51.90% 22.14% 25.96%+0.74 -34.0 4
1950-12-24 Limerick W 4-134.4 1401 1297 59.85% 22.01% 18.14%+0.85 +17.5 3
1950-12-24 @ Cork Athletic L 1-434.4 1297 1401 18.14% 22.01% 59.85%-0.85 -17.5 0
1950-12-24 Waterford W 3-031.0 1404 1338 56.02% 22.18% 21.80%+0.63 +24.3 3
1950-12-24 @ Shelbourne L 0-331.0 1338 1404 21.80% 22.18% 56.02%-0.63 -24.3 0
1950-12-24 Drumconda D 1-155.3 1327 1435 33.54% 22.32% 44.13%-0.38 +0.8 1
1950-12-24 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-155.3 1435 1327 44.13% 22.32% 33.54%+0.38 -0.8 4
1950-12-24 Dundalk W 2-146.8 1338 1398 40.36% 22.38% 37.25%-0.10 +12.9 4
1950-12-24 @ Transport L 1-246.8 1398 1338 37.25% 22.38% 40.36%+0.10 -12.9 2
1950-12-27 Sligo Rovers L 3-457.3 1314 1327 46.70% 22.37% 30.93%+0.17 -14.3 0
1950-12-27 @ Waterford W 4-357.3 1327 1314 30.93% 22.37% 46.70%-0.17 +14.4 3
1950-12-30 Shelbourne L 0-342.0 1434 1428 49.19% 22.34% 28.47%+0.28 -47.1 4
1950-12-30 @ Drumconda W 3-042.0 1428 1434 28.47% 22.34% 49.19%-0.28 +47.1 5
1950-12-31 Bohemian W 5-029.0 1419 1301 61.06% 21.94% 17.00%+0.93 +31.5 5
1950-12-31 @ Cork Athletic L 0-529.0 1301 1419 17.00% 21.94% 61.06%-0.93 -31.5 5
1950-12-31 Sligo Rovers L 2-356.6 1385 1342 53.64% 22.25% 24.11%+0.50 -16.7 2
1950-12-31 @ Dundalk W 3-256.6 1342 1385 24.11% 22.25% 53.64%-0.50 +16.7 5
1950-12-31 Waterford L 2-449.0 1280 1300 45.80% 22.38% 31.82%+0.13 -23.6 0
1950-12-31 @ Limerick W 4-249.0 1300 1280 31.82% 22.38% 45.80%-0.13 +23.6 2
1950-12-31 Transport W 3-248.0 1402 1351 54.46% 22.23% 23.32%+0.54 +8.4 6
1950-12-31 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-348.0 1351 1402 23.32% 22.23% 54.46%-0.54 -8.4 4
1951-01-07 Limerick W 3-138.6 1270 1256 50.11% 22.33% 27.57%+0.33 +17.6 7
1951-01-07 @ Bohemian L 1-338.6 1256 1270 27.57% 22.33% 50.11%-0.33 -17.6 0
1951-01-07 Dundalk W 3-248.3 1475 1369 60.07% 22.00% 17.93%+0.87 +6.7 7
1951-01-07 @ Shelbourne L 2-348.3 1369 1475 17.93% 22.00% 60.07%-0.87 -6.7 2
1951-01-07 Shamrock Rovers W 4-248.3 1358 1411 41.41% 22.39% 36.20%-0.06 +19.5 7
1951-01-07 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-448.3 1411 1358 36.20% 22.39% 41.41%+0.06 -19.6 6
1951-01-07 Cork Athletic L 1-539.4 1343 1450 33.73% 22.33% 43.94%-0.37 -37.7 4
1951-01-07 @ Transport W 5-139.4 1450 1343 43.94% 22.33% 33.73%+0.37 +37.7 7
1951-01-07 Drumconda W 4-355.4 1323 1387 39.79% 22.38% 37.82%-0.12 +12.1 4
1951-01-07 @ Waterford L 3-455.4 1387 1323 37.82% 22.38% 39.79%+0.12 -12.1 4
1951-01-13 Transport D 2-258.3 1287 1305 46.08% 22.37% 31.55%+0.14 -0.8 8
1951-01-13 @ Bohemian D 2-258.3 1305 1287 31.55% 22.37% 46.08%-0.14 +0.8 5
1951-01-14 Sligo Rovers W 4-244.9 1488 1378 60.38% 21.98% 17.64%+0.89 +10.8 9
1951-01-14 @ Cork Athletic L 2-444.9 1378 1488 17.64% 21.98% 60.38%-0.89 -10.8 7
1951-01-14 Waterford W 5-240.5 1362 1335 51.66% 22.30% 26.04%+0.40 +20.6 4
1951-01-14 @ Dundalk L 2-540.5 1335 1362 26.04% 22.30% 51.66%-0.40 -20.6 4
1951-01-14 Drumconda D 4-465.8 1238 1375 29.88% 22.25% 47.87%-0.55 +0.8 1
1951-01-14 @ Limerick D 4-465.8 1375 1238 47.87% 22.25% 29.88%+0.55 -0.8 5
1951-01-14 Shelbourne D 1-158.0 1391 1482 35.98% 22.36% 41.67%-0.28 +0.4 7
1951-01-14 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-158.0 1482 1391 41.67% 22.36% 35.98%+0.28 -0.4 8
1951-01-20 Shamrock Rovers D 2-260.4 1374 1392 46.18% 22.37% 31.44%+0.15 -0.8 6
1951-01-20 @ Drumconda D 2-260.4 1392 1374 31.44% 22.37% 46.18%-0.15 +0.8 8
1951-01-21 Dundalk W 2-148.8 1239 1382 29.04% 22.23% 48.73%-0.59 +16.1 3
1951-01-21 @ Limerick L 1-248.8 1382 1239 48.73% 22.23% 29.04%+0.59 -16.1 4
1951-01-21 Bohemian L 2-361.1 1481 1286 67.04% 21.43% 11.52%+1.38 -20.8 8
1951-01-21 @ Shelbourne W 3-261.1 1286 1481 11.52% 21.43% 67.04%-1.38 +20.8 10
1951-01-21 Transport W 2-033.0 1367 1306 55.55% 22.19% 22.25%+0.60 +17.0 9
1951-01-21 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-233.0 1306 1367 22.25% 22.19% 55.55%-0.60 -17.0 5
1951-01-21 Cork Athletic L 0-333.2 1315 1499 24.33% 22.08% 53.59%-0.82 -26.5 4
1951-01-21 @ Waterford W 3-033.2 1499 1315 53.59% 22.08% 24.33%+0.82 +26.5 11
1951-01-25 Shelbourne L 1-435.8 1255 1461 22.03% 21.97% 56.00%-0.95 -20.6 3
1951-01-25 @ Limerick W 4-135.8 1461 1255 56.00% 21.97% 22.03%+0.95 +20.6 10
1951-01-25 Limerick W 2-029.5 1384 1235 63.74% 21.75% 14.51%+1.12 +11.7 11
1951-01-25 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-229.5 1235 1384 14.51% 21.75% 63.74%-1.12 -11.7 3
1951-01-25 Limerick W 2-029.5 1396 1223 65.51% 21.59% 12.90%+1.25 +10.5 13
1951-01-25 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-229.5 1223 1396 12.90% 21.59% 65.51%-1.25 -10.5 3
1951-01-27 Waterford D 0-050.0 1307 1288 50.73% 22.31% 26.95%+0.36 -2.1 11
1951-01-27 @ Bohemian D 0-050.0 1288 1307 26.95% 22.31% 50.73%-0.36 +2.1 5
1951-01-27 Waterford D 0-050.0 1305 1290 50.23% 22.32% 27.44%+0.33 -2.0 12
1951-01-27 @ Bohemian D 0-050.0 1290 1305 27.44% 22.32% 50.23%-0.33 +2.0 6
1951-01-28 Drumconda D 3-368.6 1525 1373 63.91% 21.74% 14.35%+1.13 -2.6 12
1951-01-28 @ Cork Athletic D 3-368.6 1373 1525 14.35% 21.74% 63.91%-1.13 +2.6 7
1951-01-28 Drumconda D 3-368.6 1523 1376 63.51% 21.77% 14.72%+1.10 -2.5 13
1951-01-28 @ Cork Athletic D 3-368.6 1376 1523 14.72% 21.77% 63.51%-1.10 +2.5 8
1951-01-28 Dundalk L 2-355.4 1392 1366 51.59% 22.30% 26.11%+0.40 -16.1 8
1951-01-28 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-255.4 1366 1392 26.11% 22.30% 51.59%-0.40 +16.1 6
1951-01-28 Dundalk L 2-355.4 1376 1382 47.62% 22.36% 30.02%+0.21 -15.0 8
1951-01-28 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-255.4 1382 1376 30.02% 22.36% 47.62%-0.21 +15.0 8
1951-01-28 Shelbourne L 0-330.4 1289 1481 23.42% 22.04% 54.55%-0.87 -25.7 5
1951-01-28 @ Transport W 3-030.4 1481 1289 54.55% 22.04% 23.42%+0.87 +25.7 12
1951-01-28 Shelbourne L 0-330.4 1263 1507 18.41% 21.75% 59.83%-1.17 -20.9 5
1951-01-28 @ Transport W 3-030.4 1507 1263 59.83% 21.75% 18.41%+1.17 +20.9 14
1951-02-10 Sligo Rovers W 1-043.8 1303 1406 34.26% 22.33% 43.41%-0.35 +15.5 14
1951-02-10 @ Bohemian L 0-143.8 1406 1303 43.41% 22.33% 34.26%+0.35 -15.5 13
1951-02-11 Shelbourne W 2-154.0 1520 1528 47.42% 22.36% 30.22%+0.20 +10.9 15
1951-02-11 @ Cork Athletic L 1-254.0 1528 1520 30.22% 22.36% 47.42%-0.20 -10.9 14
1951-02-11 Drumconda L 0-340.3 1397 1379 50.75% 22.31% 26.93%+0.36 -48.5 8
1951-02-11 @ Dundalk W 3-040.3 1379 1397 26.93% 22.31% 50.75%-0.36 +48.5 10
1951-02-11 Transport D 1-152.7 1212 1242 44.47% 22.38% 33.15%+0.07 -0.8 4
1951-02-11 @ Limerick D 1-152.7 1242 1212 33.15% 22.38% 44.47%-0.07 +0.8 6
1951-02-11 Waterford L 1-251.4 1361 1292 56.39% 22.16% 21.45%+0.65 -18.4 8
1951-02-11 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-151.4 1292 1361 21.45% 22.16% 56.39%-0.65 +18.4 8
1951-02-24 Limerick W 5-234.5 1517 1211 73.05% 20.43% 6.52%+2.02 +5.8 16
1951-02-24 @ Shelbourne L 2-534.5 1211 1517 6.52% 20.43% 73.05%-2.02 -5.8 4
1951-02-25 Dundalk D 1-153.9 1319 1349 44.42% 22.38% 33.19%+0.07 -0.8 15
1951-02-25 @ Bohemian D 1-153.9 1349 1319 33.19% 22.38% 44.42%-0.07 +0.8 9
1951-02-25 Shamrock Rovers W 1-037.7 1531 1343 66.57% 21.49% 11.95%+1.34 +5.2 17
1951-02-25 @ Cork Athletic L 0-137.7 1343 1531 11.95% 21.49% 66.57%-1.34 -5.2 8
1951-02-25 Waterford W 5-029.8 1391 1311 57.53% 22.12% 20.35%+0.71 +36.9 15
1951-02-25 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-529.8 1311 1391 20.35% 22.12% 57.53%-0.71 -36.8 8
1951-02-25 Drumconda L 0-137.6 1243 1427 24.34% 22.08% 53.59%-0.82 -9.7 6
1951-02-25 @ Transport W 1-037.6 1427 1243 53.59% 22.08% 24.34%+0.82 +9.7 12
1951-03-02 Shelbourne D 1-157.1 1318 1523 22.08% 21.97% 55.94%-0.94 +2.7 16
1951-03-02 @ Bohemian D 1-157.1 1523 1318 55.94% 21.97% 22.08%+0.94 -2.7 17
1951-03-03 Bohemian W 4-136.7 1338 1320 50.56% 22.32% 27.12%+0.35 +24.5 10
1951-03-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-436.7 1320 1338 27.12% 22.32% 50.56%-0.35 -24.5 16
1951-03-03 Waterford W 3-135.7 1536 1274 70.99% 20.86% 8.16%+1.77 +5.9 19
1951-03-03 @ Cork Athletic L 1-335.7 1274 1536 8.16% 20.86% 70.99%-1.77 -5.9 8
1951-03-04 Transport L 2-357.3 1350 1234 60.95% 21.95% 17.10%+0.92 -18.9 9
1951-03-04 @ Dundalk W 3-257.3 1234 1350 17.10% 21.95% 60.95%-0.92 +18.9 8
1951-03-04 Sligo Rovers L 1-253.3 1437 1428 49.53% 22.33% 28.13%+0.30 -16.3 12
1951-03-04 @ Drumconda W 2-153.3 1428 1437 28.13% 22.33% 49.53%-0.30 +16.3 17
1951-03-04 Cork Athletic L 1-238.9 1206 1542 11.64% 21.04% 67.32%-1.71 -4.7 4
1951-03-04 @ Limerick W 2-138.9 1542 1206 67.32% 21.04% 11.64%+1.71 +4.8 21
1951-03-04 Shelbourne L 1-241.6 1268 1520 17.68% 21.70% 60.62%-1.22 -6.9 8
1951-03-04 @ Waterford W 2-141.6 1520 1268 60.62% 21.70% 17.68%+1.22 +6.9 19
1951-03-18 Limerick W 3-025.8 1420 1201 68.59% 21.24% 10.18%+1.52 +12.3 14
1951-03-18 @ Drumconda L 0-325.8 1201 1420 10.18% 21.24% 68.59%-1.52 -12.3 4
1951-03-18 Shamrock Rovers W 3-248.2 1527 1362 64.90% 21.65% 13.45%+1.21 +5.2 21
1951-03-18 @ Shelbourne L 2-348.2 1362 1527 13.45% 21.65% 64.90%-1.21 -5.2 10
1951-03-18 Bohemian L 2-351.7 1252 1296 42.66% 22.39% 34.95%+0.00 -13.6 8
1951-03-18 @ Transport W 3-251.7 1296 1252 34.95% 22.39% 42.66%+0.00 +13.6 18
1951-03-18 Dundalk W 4-354.5 1261 1331 38.92% 22.38% 38.70%-0.16 +12.3 10
1951-03-18 @ Waterford L 3-454.5 1331 1261 38.70% 22.38% 38.92%+0.16 -12.3 9
1951-03-24 Bohemian W 4-248.6 1189 1309 31.92% 22.30% 45.79%-0.45 +23.6 6
1951-03-24 @ Limerick L 2-448.6 1309 1189 45.79% 22.30% 31.92%+0.45 -23.6 18
1951-03-24 Sligo Rovers L 0-239.4 1357 1444 36.50% 22.36% 41.13%-0.26 -25.4 10
1951-03-24 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-039.4 1444 1357 41.13% 22.36% 36.50%+0.26 +25.4 19
1951-03-25 Transport W 3-026.7 1547 1239 73.17% 20.40% 6.43%+2.04 +7.9 23
1951-03-25 @ Cork Athletic L 0-326.7 1239 1547 6.43% 20.40% 73.17%-2.04 -7.9 8
1951-03-25 Shelbourne W 2-155.0 1319 1532 21.23% 21.93% 56.84%-0.99 +18.5 11
1951-03-25 @ Dundalk L 1-255.0 1532 1319 56.84% 21.93% 21.23%+0.99 -18.5 21
1951-03-26 Dundalk W 4-350.4 1469 1337 62.34% 21.86% 15.81%+1.02 +5.8 21
1951-03-26 @ Sligo Rovers L 3-450.4 1337 1469 15.81% 21.86% 62.34%-1.02 -5.9 11
1951-03-26 Waterford W 4-027.1 1433 1273 64.50% 21.69% 13.82%+1.17 +21.2 16
1951-03-26 @ Drumconda L 0-427.1 1273 1433 13.82% 21.69% 64.50%-1.17 -21.2 10
1951-03-28 Cork Athletic L 1-242.4 1286 1555 16.30% 21.58% 62.12%-1.32 -6.5 18
1951-03-28 @ Bohemian W 2-142.4 1555 1286 62.12% 21.58% 16.30%+1.32 +6.5 25
1951-03-29 Limerick W 4-028.9 1252 1212 53.21% 22.26% 24.53%+0.48 +35.0 12
1951-03-29 @ Waterford L 0-428.9 1212 1252 24.53% 22.26% 53.21%-0.48 -35.0 6
1951-04-01 Limerick D 0-049.7 1331 1177 64.10% 21.72% 14.18%+1.14 -4.6 12
1951-04-01 @ Dundalk D 0-049.7 1177 1331 14.18% 21.72% 64.10%-1.14 +4.7 7
1951-04-02 Shamrock Rovers L 2-349.4 1231 1332 34.60% 22.34% 43.06%-0.34 -11.5 8
1951-04-02 @ Transport W 3-249.4 1332 1231 43.06% 22.34% 34.60%+0.34 +11.5 12
1951-04-07 Transport L 0-152.4 1514 1219 72.55% 20.54% 6.91%+1.96 -25.2 21
1951-04-07 @ Shelbourne W 1-052.4 1219 1514 6.91% 20.54% 72.55%-1.96 +25.2 10
1951-04-08 Shamrock Rovers L 1-442.6 1327 1343 46.28% 22.37% 31.35%+0.15 -37.7 12
1951-04-08 @ Dundalk W 4-142.6 1343 1327 31.35% 22.37% 46.28%-0.15 +37.7 14
1951-04-08 Cork Athletic W 2-156.9 1454 1561 33.71% 22.33% 43.96%-0.38 +14.7 18
1951-04-08 @ Drumconda L 1-256.9 1561 1454 43.96% 22.33% 33.71%+0.38 -14.7 25
1951-04-08 Sligo Rovers W 3-150.2 1182 1475 14.44% 21.40% 64.16%-1.46 +36.1 9
1951-04-08 @ Limerick L 1-350.2 1475 1182 64.16% 21.40% 14.44%+1.46 -36.1 21
1951-04-08 Bohemian L 0-240.3 1287 1279 49.37% 22.34% 28.29%+0.29 -32.6 12
1951-04-08 @ Waterford W 2-040.3 1279 1287 28.29% 22.34% 49.37%-0.29 +32.6 20
1951-04-10 Drumconda D 1-157.3 1381 1469 36.40% 22.36% 41.24%-0.26 +0.4 15
1951-04-10 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-157.3 1469 1381 41.24% 22.36% 36.40%+0.26 -0.4 19
1951-04-11 Cork Athletic W 1-051.4 1439 1546 33.71% 22.33% 43.96%-0.38 +15.6 23
1951-04-11 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-151.4 1546 1439 43.96% 22.33% 33.71%+0.38 -15.6 25
1951-04-12 Drumconda L 0-248.4 1488 1468 50.90% 22.31% 26.78%+0.37 -33.5 21
1951-04-12 @ Shelbourne W 2-048.4 1468 1488 26.78% 22.31% 50.90%-0.37 +33.5 21
1951-04-14 Drumconda L 1-244.1 1312 1502 23.68% 22.05% 54.27%-0.86 -8.9 20
1951-04-14 @ Bohemian W 2-144.1 1502 1312 54.27% 22.05% 23.68%+0.86 +8.9 23
1951-04-15 Dundalk W 5-132.3 1531 1289 69.89% 21.04% 9.07%+1.65 +12.0 27
1951-04-15 @ Cork Athletic L 1-532.3 1289 1531 9.07% 21.04% 69.89%-1.65 -12.0 12
1951-04-15 Limerick W 2-029.6 1381 1218 64.79% 21.66% 13.54%+1.20 +11.0 17
1951-04-15 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-229.6 1218 1381 13.54% 21.66% 64.79%-1.20 -11.0 9
1951-04-15 Shelbourne W 3-145.3 1455 1455 48.39% 22.35% 29.26%+0.25 +18.5 25
1951-04-15 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-345.3 1455 1455 29.26% 22.35% 48.39%-0.25 -18.5 21
1951-04-15 Waterford D 1-152.8 1245 1255 47.14% 22.36% 30.50%+0.19 -1.3 11
1951-04-15 @ Transport D 1-152.8 1255 1245 30.50% 22.36% 47.14%-0.19 +1.3 13
1951-04-17 Sligo Rovers D 0-051.3 1243 1473 19.65% 21.84% 58.51%-1.09 +3.5 12
1951-04-17 @ Transport D 0-051.3 1473 1243 58.51% 21.84% 19.65%+1.09 -3.5 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1951-04-07 6.91% Transport 1219 1 @ Shelbourne 1514 0
2 1951-01-21 11.52% Bohemian 1286 3 @ Shelbourne 1481 2
3 1951-04-08 14.44% @ Limerick 1182 3 Sligo Rovers 1475 1
4 1951-03-04 17.10% Transport 1234 3 @ Dundalk 1350 2
5 1950-12-10 18.44% Bohemian 1245 2 @ Sligo Rovers 1346 1
6 1951-03-25 21.23% @ Dundalk 1319 2 Shelbourne 1532 1
7 1951-02-11 21.45% Waterford 1292 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1361 1
8 1950-12-31 24.11% Sligo Rovers 1342 3 @ Dundalk 1385 2
9 1950-12-23 25.96% @ Bohemian 1267 2 Shamrock Rovers 1436 0
10 1951-01-28 26.11% Dundalk 1366 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1392 2
11 1951-04-12 26.78% Drumconda 1468 2 @ Shelbourne 1488 0
12 1951-02-11 26.93% Drumconda 1379 3 @ Dundalk 1397 0
13 1951-03-04 28.13% Sligo Rovers 1428 2 @ Drumconda 1437 1
14 1951-04-08 28.29% Bohemian 1279 2 @ Waterford 1287 0
15 1950-12-10 28.34% Shamrock Rovers 1378 3 @ Waterford 1386 0
16 1950-12-30 28.47% Shelbourne 1428 3 @ Drumconda 1434 0
17 1951-01-21 29.04% @ Limerick 1239 2 Dundalk 1382 1
18 1951-01-28 30.02% Dundalk 1382 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1376 2
19 1950-12-27 30.93% Sligo Rovers 1327 4 @ Waterford 1314 3
20 1951-04-08 31.35% Shamrock Rovers 1343 4 @ Dundalk 1327 1
21 1950-12-31 31.82% Waterford 1300 4 @ Limerick 1280 2
22 1951-03-24 31.92% @ Limerick 1189 4 Bohemian 1309 2
23 1951-04-08 33.71% @ Drumconda 1454 2 Cork Athletic 1561 1
24 1951-04-11 33.71% @ Sligo Rovers 1439 1 Cork Athletic 1546 0
25 1951-02-10 34.26% @ Bohemian 1303 1 Sligo Rovers 1406 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-02-11 48.48 Drumconda 3 1379 26.93% @ Dundalk 0 1397 50.75% 22.31%
2 1950-12-10 47.25 Shamrock Rovers 3 1378 28.34% @ Waterford 0 1386 49.32% 22.34%
3 1950-12-30 47.14 Shelbourne 3 1428 28.47% @ Drumconda 0 1434 49.19% 22.34%
4 1951-01-07 37.73 Cork Athletic 5 1450 43.94% @ Transport 1 1343 33.73% 22.33%
5 1951-04-08 37.69 Shamrock Rovers 4 1343 31.35% @ Dundalk 1 1327 46.28% 22.37%
6 1951-02-25 36.85 @ Sligo Rovers 5 1391 57.53% Waterford 0 1311 20.35% 22.12%
7 1951-04-08 36.13 @ Limerick 3 1182 14.44% Sligo Rovers 1 1475 64.16% 21.40%
8 1951-03-29 35.00 @ Waterford 4 1252 53.21% Limerick 0 1212 24.53% 22.26%
9 1950-12-23 34.01 @ Bohemian 2 1267 25.96% Shamrock Rovers 0 1436 51.90% 22.14%
10 1951-04-12 33.47 Drumconda 2 1468 26.78% @ Shelbourne 0 1488 50.90% 22.31%
11 1951-04-08 32.57 Bohemian 2 1279 28.29% @ Waterford 0 1287 49.37% 22.34%
12 1950-12-31 31.52 @ Cork Athletic 5 1419 61.06% Bohemian 0 1301 17.00% 21.94%
13 1951-01-21 26.54 Cork Athletic 3 1499 53.59% @ Waterford 0 1315 24.33% 22.08%
14 1951-01-28 25.70 Shelbourne 3 1481 54.55% @ Transport 0 1289 23.42% 22.04%
15 1951-03-24 25.41 Sligo Rovers 2 1444 41.13% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1357 36.50% 22.36%
16 1951-04-07 25.19 Transport 1 1219 6.91% @ Shelbourne 0 1514 72.55% 20.54%
17 1951-03-03 24.54 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1338 50.56% Bohemian 1 1320 27.12% 22.32%
18 1950-12-24 24.27 @ Shelbourne 3 1404 56.02% Waterford 0 1338 21.80% 22.18%
19 1950-12-31 23.62 Waterford 4 1300 31.82% @ Limerick 2 1280 45.80% 22.38%
20 1951-03-24 23.60 @ Limerick 4 1189 31.92% Bohemian 2 1309 45.79% 22.30%
21 1951-03-26 21.25 @ Drumconda 4 1433 64.50% Waterford 0 1273 13.82% 21.69%
22 1951-01-28 20.89 Shelbourne 3 1507 59.83% @ Transport 0 1263 18.41% 21.75%
23 1951-01-21 20.79 Bohemian 3 1286 11.52% @ Shelbourne 2 1481 67.04% 21.43%
24 1951-01-25 20.57 Shelbourne 4 1461 56.00% @ Limerick 1 1255 22.03% 21.97%
25 1951-01-14 20.56 @ Dundalk 5 1362 51.66% Waterford 2 1335 26.04% 22.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-01-28 68.6 @ Cork Athletic 3 1525 63.91% Drumconda 3 1373 14.35% 21.74%
2 1951-01-28 68.6 @ Cork Athletic 3 1523 63.51% Drumconda 3 1376 14.72% 21.77%
3 1951-01-14 65.8 @ Limerick 4 1238 29.88% Drumconda 4 1375 47.87% 22.25%
4 1950-12-17 63.7 @ Dundalk 3 1401 62.65% Bohemian 3 1265 15.52% 21.83%
5 1950-12-10 61.4 @ Shelbourne 2 1405 47.63% Cork Athletic 2 1411 30.01% 22.36%
6 1951-01-21 61.1 Bohemian 3 1286 11.52% @ Shelbourne 2 1481 67.04% 21.43%
7 1951-01-20 60.4 @ Drumconda 2 1374 46.18% Shamrock Rovers 2 1392 31.44% 22.37%
8 1951-01-13 58.3 @ Bohemian 2 1287 46.08% Transport 2 1305 31.55% 22.37%
9 1951-01-14 58.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1391 35.98% Shelbourne 1 1482 41.67% 22.36%
10 1950-12-27 57.3 Sligo Rovers 4 1327 30.93% @ Waterford 3 1314 46.70% 22.37%
11 1951-03-04 57.3 Transport 3 1234 17.10% @ Dundalk 2 1350 60.95% 21.95%
12 1951-04-10 57.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1381 36.40% Drumconda 1 1469 41.24% 22.36%
13 1951-03-02 57.1 @ Bohemian 1 1318 22.08% Shelbourne 1 1523 55.94% 21.97%
14 1951-04-08 56.9 @ Drumconda 2 1454 33.71% Cork Athletic 1 1561 43.96% 22.33%
15 1950-12-09 56.7 @ Drumconda 1 1429 52.15% Dundalk 1 1399 25.56% 22.29%
16 1950-12-31 56.6 Sligo Rovers 3 1342 24.11% @ Dundalk 2 1385 53.64% 22.25%
17 1951-01-28 56.6 Dundalk 3 1366 26.11% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1392 51.59% 22.30%
18 1951-01-07 55.4 @ Waterford 4 1323 39.79% Drumconda 3 1387 37.82% 22.38%
19 1951-01-28 55.4 Dundalk 3 1382 30.02% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1376 47.62% 22.36%
20 1950-12-24 55.3 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1327 33.54% Drumconda 1 1435 44.13% 22.32%
21 1951-03-25 55.0 @ Dundalk 2 1319 21.23% Shelbourne 1 1532 56.84% 21.93%
22 1951-03-18 54.5 @ Waterford 4 1261 38.92% Dundalk 3 1331 38.70% 22.38%
23 1951-02-11 54.0 @ Cork Athletic 2 1520 47.42% Shelbourne 1 1528 30.22% 22.36%
24 1951-02-25 53.9 @ Bohemian 1 1319 44.42% Dundalk 1 1349 33.19% 22.38%
25 1951-03-04 53.3 Sligo Rovers 2 1428 28.13% @ Drumconda 1 1437 49.53% 22.33%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-03-18 25.8 @ Drumconda 3 1420 68.59% Limerick 0 1201 10.18% 21.24%
2 1951-03-25 26.7 @ Cork Athletic 3 1547 73.17% Transport 0 1239 6.43% 20.40%
3 1951-03-26 27.1 @ Drumconda 4 1433 64.50% Waterford 0 1273 13.82% 21.69%
4 1951-03-29 28.9 @ Waterford 4 1252 53.21% Limerick 0 1212 24.53% 22.26%
5 1950-12-31 29.0 @ Cork Athletic 5 1419 61.06% Bohemian 0 1301 17.00% 21.94%
6 1951-01-25 29.5 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1396 65.51% Limerick 0 1223 12.90% 21.59%
7 1951-04-15 29.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1381 64.79% Limerick 0 1218 13.54% 21.66%
8 1951-02-25 29.8 @ Sligo Rovers 5 1391 57.53% Waterford 0 1311 20.35% 22.12%
9 1951-01-25 30.0 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1384 63.74% Limerick 0 1235 14.51% 21.75%
10 1951-01-28 30.4 Shelbourne 3 1507 59.83% @ Transport 0 1263 18.41% 21.75%
11 1950-12-24 31.0 @ Shelbourne 3 1404 56.02% Waterford 0 1338 21.80% 22.18%
12 1951-01-28 32.0 Shelbourne 3 1481 54.55% @ Transport 0 1289 23.42% 22.04%
13 1951-04-15 32.3 @ Cork Athletic 5 1531 69.89% Dundalk 1 1289 9.07% 21.04%
14 1951-01-21 33.0 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1367 55.55% Transport 0 1306 22.25% 22.19%
15 1951-01-21 33.2 Cork Athletic 3 1499 53.59% @ Waterford 0 1315 24.33% 22.08%
16 1950-12-24 34.4 @ Cork Athletic 4 1401 59.85% Limerick 1 1297 18.14% 22.01%
17 1951-02-24 34.5 @ Shelbourne 5 1517 73.05% Limerick 2 1211 6.52% 20.43%
18 1951-03-03 35.7 @ Cork Athletic 3 1536 70.99% Waterford 1 1274 8.16% 20.86%
19 1951-01-25 35.8 Shelbourne 4 1461 56.00% @ Limerick 1 1255 22.03% 21.97%
20 1951-03-03 36.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1338 50.56% Bohemian 1 1320 27.12% 22.32%
21 1951-02-25 37.6 Drumconda 1 1427 53.59% @ Transport 0 1243 24.34% 22.08%
22 1951-02-25 37.7 @ Cork Athletic 1 1531 66.57% Shamrock Rovers 0 1343 11.95% 21.49%
23 1951-01-07 38.6 @ Bohemian 3 1270 50.11% Limerick 1 1256 27.57% 22.33%
24 1951-03-04 38.9 Cork Athletic 2 1542 67.32% @ Limerick 1 1206 11.64% 21.04%
25 1951-01-07 39.4 Cork Athletic 5 1450 43.94% @ Transport 1 1343 33.73% 22.33%