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1968-69 League of Ireland Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Waterford

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cork Hibernians

9.10 points above expected

30 points · 20.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cork Celtic

9.25 points below expected

11 points · 20.25 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Waterford 22 16 4 2 36 68 30 +38 31.22 +4.78
2 Shamrock Rovers 22 14 3 5 31 56 28 +28 31.44 -0.44
3 Cork Hibernians 22 14 2 6 30 39 27 +12 20.90 +9.10
4 Dundalk 22 13 3 6 29 54 29 +25 28.84 +0.16
5 St Patrick's Athletic 22 10 4 8 24 41 42 -1 19.76 +4.24
6 Drogheda United 22 8 6 8 22 35 30 +5 23.82 -1.82
7 Limerick 22 9 4 9 22 30 36 -6 20.53 +1.47
8 Sligo Rovers 22 8 4 10 20 29 32 -3 18.14 +1.86
9 Drumconda 22 6 5 11 17 38 44 -6 19.23 -2.23
10 Shelbourne 22 2 8 12 12 30 69 -39 15.62 -3.62
11 Cork Celtic 22 3 5 14 11 28 52 -24 20.25 -9.25
12 Bohemian 22 3 4 15 10 21 50 -29 14.25 -4.25

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cork Hibernians 30 20.90 +9.10
2 Waterford 36 31.22 +4.78
3 St Patrick's Athletic 24 19.76 +4.24
4 Sligo Rovers 20 18.14 +1.86
5 Limerick 22 20.53 +1.47

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cork Celtic 11 20.25 -9.25
2 Bohemian 10 14.25 -4.25
3 Shelbourne 12 15.62 -3.62
4 Drumconda 17 19.23 -2.23
5 Drogheda United 22 23.82 -1.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork Hibernians 6 Jan 26 – Mar 16 1 in 387
2 Dundalk 7 Dec 1 – Jan 12 1 in 152
3 Waterford 9 Jan 12 – Mar 23 1 in 82
4 Drumconda 3 Dec 22 – Jan 5 1 in 24
5 Drogheda United 4 Jan 12 – Feb 2 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 11 Nov 17 – Jan 26 1 in 527
2 Cork Celtic 7 Jan 26 – Mar 23 1 in 229
3 Shelbourne 6 Jan 5 – Feb 16 1 in 30
4 Drumconda 6 Feb 16 – Mar 23 1 in 18
5 St Patrick's Athletic 4 Dec 29 – Jan 19 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 3 Mar 16 – Mar 28 1 in 76
2 Waterford 17 Dec 8 – Apr 13 1 in 27
3 Dundalk 9 Nov 17 – Jan 12 1 in 27
4 Limerick 6 Nov 3 – Dec 15 1 in 26
5 Cork Hibernians 6 Jan 26 – Mar 16 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork Celtic 10 Nov 3 – Jan 5 1 in 204
2 Drogheda United 9 Nov 3 – Jan 5 1 in 145
3 Shelbourne 15 Nov 24 – Mar 16 1 in 114
4 Bohemian 12 Nov 10 – Jan 26 1 in 19
5 Drumconda 8 Jan 26 – Mar 23 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Waterford 1537 36 +8 8 8.2 -0.2
Shamrock Rovers 1421 31 -65 5 7.6 -2.6
Cork Hibernians 1418 30 +114 8 4.9 +3.1
Dundalk 1433 29 -24 6 7.8 -1.8
St Patrick's Athletic 1214 24 -57 3 3.2 -0.2
Limerick 1197 22 +3 4 3.4 +0.6
Drogheda United 1284 22 -52 2 5.3 -3.3
Sligo Rovers 1219 20 +56 6 4.3 +1.7
Drumconda 1189 17 +37 4 4.2 -0.2
Shelbourne 1027 12 -6 3 2.6 +0.4
Cork Celtic 1054 11 -99 2 4.6 -2.6
Bohemian 1029 10 +27 5 2.4 +2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CC CH DU DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SR SPA WAT
Bohemian —
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.78
0-1-1
1.60
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
0.94
0-0-2
1.91
0-1-1
0.94
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.03
0-0-2
1.60
0-1-1
0.66
Cork Celtic
1-0-1
3.42
 —
0-0-2
2.95
1-1-0
1.88
0-0-2
2.80
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
3.35
0-1-1
3.21
0-0-2
2.97
0-1-1
1.43
Cork Hibernians
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
2.63
 —
2-0-0
2.49
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
1.61
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
1.78
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.57
Drogheda United
1-1-0
3.99
0-1-1
3.70
0-0-2
3.10
 —
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
1.61
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.28
0-0-2
1.63
Drumconda
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
2.54
 —
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
2.64
0-1-1
1.29
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.75
0-2-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.04
Dundalk
1-1-0
4.67
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.98
1-0-1
3.37
2-0-0
3.88
 —
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
2.59
1-1-0
4.72
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.82
0-0-2
2.40
Limerick
2-0-0
3.68
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.26
 —
1-0-1
1.27
0-2-0
3.62
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
1.45
Shamrock Rovers
1-1-0
4.68
2-0-0
4.39
1-0-1
3.82
0-1-1
3.98
1-1-0
4.31
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
4.32
 —
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.33
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
3.16
Shelbourne
1-0-1
3.32
1-1-0
2.24
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.27
0-1-1
0.89
0-2-0
1.97
0-0-2
1.06
 —
0-2-0
2.52
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
0.93
Sligo Rovers
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
1.65
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
1.27
0-2-0
3.06
 —
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
0.95
St Patrick's Athletic
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.30
0-2-0
3.00
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.82
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.37
 —
0-1-1
1.19
Waterford
1-1-0
4.97
1-1-0
4.18
1-0-1
4.03
2-0-0
3.96
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
3.18
1-1-0
4.15
2-0-0
2.42
2-0-0
4.68
1-0-1
4.66
1-1-0
4.41
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +5.4
Allowed 0.66 -5.4
Differential 0.92 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.30%7.20%1.89%1.52%1.52%17.42%
15.30%10.61%8.33%3.41%1.52%3.41%32.58%
27.20%8.33%6.82%1.89%1.89%1.14%27.27%
31.89%3.41%1.89%2.27%0.38%0.76%10.61%
41.52%1.52%1.89%0.38%——5.30%
5+1.52%3.41%1.14%0.76%——6.82%
Total17.42%32.58%27.27%10.61%5.30%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.78 +0.00
SD 1.47 1.47 2.27
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%18.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
14.55%9.09%13.64%——9.09%36.36%
2——9.09%———9.09%
3———————
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total4.55%27.27%45.45%4.55%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.27 -1.32
SD 1.33 1.61 2.25
CV 1.39 0.71 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%13.64%9.09%——45.45%
24.55%——4.55%18.18%—27.27%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%13.64%22.73%27.27%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 2.36 -1.09
SD 0.88 1.43 1.54
CV 0.69 0.61 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
227.27%13.64%4.55%———45.45%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%27.27%22.73%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.23 +0.55
SD 1.23 1.27 2.04
CV 0.69 1.03 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
113.64%13.64%13.64%———40.91%
2—9.09%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
3—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%40.91%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.36 +0.23
SD 1.14 0.95 1.45
CV 0.72 0.70 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%——4.55%31.82%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
2—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total4.55%36.36%40.91%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.00 -0.27
SD 1.72 1.51 2.27
CV 1.00 0.76 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
1—4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
313.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total31.82%31.82%18.18%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.32 +1.14
SD 1.57 1.32 2.49
CV 0.64 1.00 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.73%4.55%——27.27%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
29.09%18.18%4.55%——4.55%36.36%
3—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%36.36%31.82%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.64 -0.27
SD 1.05 1.18 1.72
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
14.55%—9.09%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
213.64%9.09%13.64%———36.36%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+—13.64%————13.64%
Total31.82%27.27%31.82%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.27 +1.27
SD 1.74 1.24 2.43
CV 0.68 0.98 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————9.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%—4.55%9.09%9.09%45.45%
2—4.55%13.64%—4.55%9.09%31.82%
3———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%22.73%13.64%9.09%27.27%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 3.14 -1.77
SD 0.85 1.88 2.11
CV 0.62 0.60 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%9.09%———22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%50.00%22.73%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.45 -0.14
SD 1.04 1.14 1.67
CV 0.79 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———9.09%——9.09%
19.09%18.18%9.09%—4.55%9.09%50.00%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
3—4.55%———4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%31.82%18.18%9.09%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.91 -0.05
SD 1.52 1.87 2.61
CV 0.82 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
1—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
29.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
3—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%——31.82%
Total13.64%45.45%31.82%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.09 1.36 +1.73
SD 1.90 0.85 1.78
CV 0.61 0.62 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Waterford 1537 36 31.22 +4.78 99.0% 21 26 29 31 33 36 38
Dundalk 1433 29 28.84 +0.16 54.0% 19 23 26 29 31 36 38
Shamrock Rovers 1421 31 31.44 -0.44 46.0% 23 26 29 32 34 37 40
Cork Hibernians 1418 30 20.90 +9.10 100.0% 11 15 19 21 24 26 28
Drogheda United 1284 22 23.82 -1.82 42.0% 14 16 21 23 27 30 34
Sligo Rovers 1219 20 18.14 +1.86 67.0% 6 10 15 18 21 25 27
St Patrick's Athletic 1214 24 19.76 +4.24 92.0% 10 14 18 20 22 25 27
Limerick 1197 22 20.53 +1.47 67.0% 12 13 18 21 23 27 31
Drumconda 1189 17 19.23 -2.23 30.0% 11 12 16 20 21 25 28
Cork Celtic 1054 11 20.25 -9.25 0.0% 13 14 18 20 23 27 30
Bohemian 1029 10 14.25 -4.25 15.0% 8 8 11 14 17 20 25
Shelbourne 1027 12 15.62 -3.62 19.0% 9 10 14 16 18 21 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.21%
Strong Edge
50.76%19.70%29.55%
Elo Value
Home Edge
171 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
074.83500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.44+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Waterford, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Runaway
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.98 * Some Luck: 2.98 to 4.47 * Lucky: 4.47 to 5.97 * Wild Swing: 5.97 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 2 * Off: 2 to 2.66 * Way Off: 2.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.61 points
Lucky
03.739
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Close
01.664
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Cork Hibernians
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Cork Celtic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 170.58
2.01
Strong Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
82%
Wide Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.64
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.47
Some Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.69
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.082
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Waterford38.00%40.00%18.00%3.00%——1.00%—————
Shamrock Rovers47.00%26.00%22.00%4.00%—1.00%——————
Cork Hibernians——4.00%12.00%19.00%20.00%11.00%15.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%
Dundalk15.00%22.00%36.00%15.00%7.00%3.00%——2.00%———
St Patrick's Athletic——4.00%7.00%13.00%7.00%16.00%23.00%12.00%12.00%2.00%4.00%
Drogheda United—7.00%9.00%28.00%19.00%11.00%8.00%8.00%4.00%5.00%1.00%—
Limerick—1.00%3.00%11.00%11.00%17.00%13.00%12.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%4.00%
Sligo Rovers—1.00%—4.00%9.00%9.00%16.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%11.00%13.00%
Drumconda——2.00%5.00%11.00%14.00%18.00%10.00%11.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%
Shelbourne———1.00%1.00%3.00%3.00%6.00%11.00%19.00%32.00%24.00%
Cork Celtic—3.00%2.00%8.00%8.00%13.00%12.00%10.00%21.00%9.00%10.00%4.00%
Bohemian———2.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%5.00%10.00%11.00%22.00%44.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Cork Celtic 100%
Cork Hibernians 100%
Drogheda United 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Sligo Rovers 100%
St Patrick's Athletic 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1968-11-03 Drumconda W 1-040.0 1148 1235 43.22% 20.89% 35.89%-0.07 +15.3 2
1968-11-03 @ Bohemian L 0-140.0 1235 1148 35.89% 20.89% 43.22%+0.07 -15.3 0
1968-11-03 Waterford W 1-044.5 1205 1384 30.54% 20.76% 48.70%-0.61 +19.7 2
1968-11-03 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-144.5 1384 1205 48.70% 20.76% 30.54%+0.61 -19.7 0
1968-11-03 Shamrock Rovers L 1-545.3 1335 1323 55.51% 20.80% 23.69%+0.51 -66.2 0
1968-11-03 @ Dundalk W 5-145.3 1323 1335 23.69% 20.80% 55.51%-0.51 +66.2 2
1968-11-03 Cork Celtic W 2-144.4 1225 1300 44.76% 20.89% 34.35%+0.00 +13.9 2
1968-11-03 @ Limerick L 1-244.4 1300 1225 34.35% 20.89% 44.76%+0.00 -13.9 0
1968-11-03 Drogheda United D 2-258.4 1227 1269 49.06% 20.87% 30.06%+0.19 -1.3 1
1968-11-03 @ Shelbourne D 2-258.4 1269 1227 30.06% 20.87% 49.06%-0.19 +1.3 1
1968-11-03 Sligo Rovers W 2-032.3 1206 1164 58.62% 20.73% 20.64%+0.68 +18.2 2
1968-11-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-232.3 1164 1206 20.64% 20.73% 58.62%-0.68 -18.2 0
1968-11-09 Limerick L 0-145.0 1219 1239 51.89% 20.85% 27.26%+0.32 -20.8 0
1968-11-09 @ Drumconda W 1-045.0 1239 1219 27.26% 20.85% 51.89%-0.32 +20.8 4
1968-11-10 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-349.7 1286 1224 60.63% 20.67% 18.70%+0.80 -39.5 0
1968-11-10 @ Cork Celtic W 3-149.7 1224 1286 18.70% 20.67% 60.63%-0.80 +39.5 4
1968-11-10 Bohemian D 1-153.2 1271 1164 64.48% 20.51% 15.02%+1.06 -4.8 2
1968-11-10 @ Drogheda United D 1-153.2 1164 1271 15.02% 20.51% 64.48%-1.06 +4.8 3
1968-11-10 Cork Hibernians W 2-144.1 1146 1224 44.33% 20.89% 34.78%-0.02 +14.1 2
1968-11-10 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-244.1 1224 1146 34.78% 20.89% 44.33%+0.02 -14.1 2
1968-11-10 Dundalk W 3-137.0 1364 1269 63.52% 20.55% 15.93%+0.99 +12.6 2
1968-11-10 @ Waterford L 1-337.0 1269 1364 15.93% 20.55% 63.52%-0.99 -12.6 0
1968-11-13 Shelbourne W 4-026.9 1389 1226 68.51% 20.24% 11.26%+1.39 +20.1 4
1968-11-13 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-426.9 1226 1389 11.26% 20.24% 68.51%-1.39 -20.1 1
1968-11-15 Cork Celtic D 1-153.1 1160 1247 43.20% 20.89% 35.92%-0.07 -0.6 3
1968-11-15 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-153.1 1247 1160 35.92% 20.89% 43.20%+0.07 +0.6 1
1968-11-17 Cork Celtic W 2-035.1 1210 1247 49.75% 20.87% 29.38%+0.22 +24.5 4
1968-11-17 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-235.1 1247 1210 29.38% 20.87% 49.75%-0.22 -24.5 1
1968-11-17 Sligo Rovers W 3-243.5 1256 1160 63.65% 20.55% 15.80%+1.00 +6.8 2
1968-11-17 @ Dundalk L 2-343.5 1160 1256 15.80% 20.55% 63.65%-1.00 -6.8 3
1968-11-17 Waterford L 1-254.2 1410 1376 57.77% 20.75% 21.48%+0.63 -21.8 4
1968-11-17 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-154.2 1376 1410 21.48% 20.75% 57.77%-0.63 +21.8 4
1968-11-17 Bohemian W 1-035.5 1206 1168 58.19% 20.74% 21.07%+0.65 +9.8 3
1968-11-17 @ Shelbourne L 0-135.5 1168 1206 21.07% 20.74% 58.19%-0.65 -9.8 3
1968-11-17 Drumconda D 1-153.3 1264 1199 60.89% 20.66% 18.45%+0.82 -4.0 5
1968-11-17 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-153.3 1199 1264 18.45% 20.66% 60.89%-0.82 +4.0 1
1968-11-24 Limerick L 1-246.1 1159 1260 41.13% 20.88% 37.99%-0.15 -16.1 3
1968-11-24 @ Bohemian W 2-146.1 1260 1159 37.99% 20.88% 41.13%+0.15 +16.1 6
1968-11-24 Dundalk D 3-362.9 1223 1263 49.35% 20.87% 29.78%+0.20 -1.1 2
1968-11-24 @ Cork Celtic D 3-362.9 1263 1223 29.78% 20.87% 49.35%-0.20 +1.1 3
1968-11-24 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-153.4 1266 1260 54.89% 20.81% 24.29%+0.47 -2.8 3
1968-11-24 @ Drogheda United D 1-153.4 1260 1266 24.29% 20.81% 54.89%-0.47 +2.8 6
1968-11-24 Cork Hibernians D 2-258.2 1203 1235 50.34% 20.87% 28.80%+0.25 -1.4 2
1968-11-24 @ Drumconda D 2-258.2 1235 1203 28.80% 20.87% 50.34%-0.25 +1.4 5
1968-11-24 Shamrock Rovers L 0-136.8 1153 1388 23.93% 20.59% 55.48%-0.93 -10.9 3
1968-11-24 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-036.8 1388 1153 55.48% 20.59% 23.93%+0.93 +10.9 6
1968-11-24 Shelbourne W 5-026.7 1398 1215 69.66% 20.13% 10.20%+1.50 +22.6 6
1968-11-24 @ Waterford L 0-526.7 1215 1398 10.20% 20.13% 69.66%-1.50 -22.6 3
1968-12-01 Drogheda United W 3-247.5 1236 1263 51.03% 20.86% 28.11%+0.28 +11.2 7
1968-12-01 @ Cork Hibernians L 2-347.5 1263 1236 28.11% 20.86% 51.03%-0.28 -11.2 3
1968-12-01 Drumconda W 3-137.0 1264 1201 60.71% 20.67% 18.63%+0.80 +14.4 5
1968-12-01 @ Dundalk L 1-337.0 1201 1264 18.63% 20.67% 60.71%-0.80 -14.4 2
1968-12-01 Cork Celtic W 4-239.7 1399 1222 69.31% 20.17% 10.52%+1.47 +7.7 8
1968-12-01 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-439.7 1222 1399 10.52% 20.17% 69.31%-1.47 -7.7 2
1968-12-01 Limerick D 1-153.2 1193 1276 43.66% 20.89% 35.45%-0.05 -0.7 4
1968-12-01 @ Shelbourne D 1-153.2 1276 1193 35.45% 20.89% 43.66%+0.05 +0.7 7
1968-12-01 Bohemian W 2-030.3 1262 1143 65.47% 20.45% 14.08%+1.14 +13.0 8
1968-12-01 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-230.3 1143 1262 14.08% 20.45% 65.47%-1.14 -13.0 3
1968-12-01 Sligo Rovers L 1-256.1 1421 1142 74.34% 19.50% 6.16%+2.06 -28.2 6
1968-12-01 @ Waterford W 2-156.1 1142 1421 6.16% 19.50% 74.34%-2.06 +28.2 5
1968-12-08 Cork Hibernians L 1-245.3 1130 1248 38.74% 20.87% 40.39%-0.25 -15.3 3
1968-12-08 @ Bohemian W 2-145.3 1248 1130 40.39% 20.87% 38.74%+0.25 +15.3 9
1968-12-08 Waterford D 1-153.9 1214 1393 30.57% 20.76% 48.67%-0.60 +1.6 3
1968-12-08 @ Cork Celtic D 1-153.9 1393 1214 48.67% 20.76% 30.57%+0.60 -1.6 7
1968-12-08 Dundalk L 1-249.4 1252 1279 51.02% 20.86% 28.12%+0.28 -19.4 3
1968-12-08 @ Drogheda United W 2-149.4 1279 1252 28.12% 20.86% 51.02%-0.28 +19.4 7
1968-12-08 Shamrock Rovers D 2-258.9 1187 1406 25.62% 20.65% 53.73%-0.85 +1.9 3
1968-12-08 @ Drumconda D 2-258.9 1406 1187 53.73% 20.65% 25.62%+0.85 -1.9 9
1968-12-08 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-141.6 1277 1275 54.34% 20.82% 24.84%+0.44 +10.7 9
1968-12-08 @ Limerick L 1-241.6 1275 1277 24.84% 20.82% 54.34%-0.44 -10.7 8
1968-12-08 Shelbourne D 2-258.1 1170 1192 51.59% 20.85% 27.55%+0.31 -1.6 6
1968-12-08 @ Sligo Rovers D 2-258.1 1192 1170 27.55% 20.85% 51.59%-0.31 +1.6 5
1968-12-15 Limerick L 0-242.0 1263 1287 51.30% 20.86% 27.84%+0.29 -38.9 9
1968-12-15 @ Cork Hibernians W 2-042.0 1287 1263 27.84% 20.86% 51.30%-0.29 +38.9 11
1968-12-15 Bohemian W 6-026.6 1298 1114 69.72% 20.13% 10.15%+1.51 +26.7 9
1968-12-15 @ Dundalk L 0-626.6 1114 1298 10.15% 20.13% 69.72%-1.51 -26.7 3
1968-12-15 Drogheda United D 2-259.4 1404 1232 69.02% 20.19% 10.79%+1.44 -4.3 10
1968-12-15 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-259.4 1232 1404 10.79% 20.19% 69.02%-1.44 +4.3 4
1968-12-15 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-442.7 1194 1265 45.33% 20.89% 33.79%+0.02 -42.7 5
1968-12-15 @ Shelbourne W 4-142.7 1265 1194 33.79% 20.89% 45.33%-0.02 +42.7 10
1968-12-15 Drumconda W 7-334.2 1391 1189 70.76% 20.02% 9.22%+1.62 +10.7 9
1968-12-15 @ Waterford L 3-734.2 1189 1391 9.22% 20.02% 70.76%-1.62 -10.7 3
1968-12-22 Shamrock Rovers L 0-328.9 1088 1400 16.61% 20.24% 63.15%-1.39 -21.7 3
1968-12-22 @ Bohemian W 3-028.9 1400 1088 63.15% 20.24% 16.61%+1.39 +21.7 12
1968-12-22 Shelbourne D 1-153.1 1216 1151 60.86% 20.66% 18.48%+0.81 -4.0 4
1968-12-22 @ Cork Celtic D 1-153.1 1151 1216 18.48% 20.66% 60.86%-0.81 +4.0 6
1968-12-22 Waterford L 0-236.9 1237 1402 32.32% 20.79% 46.89%-0.53 -26.5 4
1968-12-22 @ Drogheda United W 2-036.9 1402 1237 46.89% 20.79% 32.32%+0.53 +26.5 11
1968-12-22 Sligo Rovers W 2-140.8 1178 1168 55.25% 20.80% 23.95%+0.49 +10.3 5
1968-12-22 @ Drumconda L 1-240.8 1168 1178 23.95% 20.80% 55.25%-0.49 -10.4 6
1968-12-22 Dundalk L 0-341.3 1326 1325 54.37% 20.82% 24.81%+0.45 -59.6 11
1968-12-22 @ Limerick W 3-041.3 1325 1326 24.81% 20.82% 54.37%-0.45 +59.6 11
1968-12-22 Cork Hibernians W 4-028.2 1307 1224 62.53% 20.60% 16.87%+0.92 +29.0 12
1968-12-22 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-428.2 1224 1307 16.87% 20.60% 62.53%-0.92 -29.0 9
1968-12-29 Drumconda L 2-452.8 1212 1188 56.77% 20.78% 22.46%+0.57 -33.1 4
1968-12-29 @ Cork Celtic W 4-252.8 1188 1212 22.46% 20.78% 56.77%-0.57 +33.2 7
1968-12-29 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-141.7 1384 1336 59.26% 20.71% 20.03%+0.72 +8.9 13
1968-12-29 @ Dundalk L 1-241.7 1336 1384 20.03% 20.71% 59.26%-0.72 -8.9 12
1968-12-29 Limerick W 2-031.1 1422 1267 67.96% 20.28% 11.76%+1.34 +11.0 14
1968-12-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-231.1 1267 1422 11.76% 20.28% 67.96%-1.34 -11.0 11
1968-12-29 Cork Hibernians D 1-153.0 1155 1195 49.38% 20.87% 29.75%+0.20 -1.8 7
1968-12-29 @ Shelbourne D 1-153.0 1195 1155 29.75% 20.87% 49.38%-0.20 +1.8 10
1968-12-29 Drogheda United D 1-153.0 1158 1210 47.81% 20.88% 31.30%+0.13 -1.5 7
1968-12-29 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-153.0 1210 1158 31.30% 20.88% 47.81%-0.13 +1.5 5
1968-12-29 Bohemian W 6-127.4 1428 1066 77.23% 18.81% 3.95%+2.55 +7.4 13
1968-12-29 @ Waterford L 1-627.4 1066 1428 3.95% 18.81% 77.23%-2.55 -7.4 3
1969-01-05 Sligo Rovers L 1-246.0 1058 1157 41.56% 20.88% 37.55%-0.14 -16.2 3
1969-01-05 @ Bohemian W 2-146.0 1157 1058 37.55% 20.88% 41.56%+0.14 +16.2 9
1969-01-05 Dundalk L 1-242.9 1197 1393 28.35% 20.72% 50.93%-0.71 -11.9 10
1969-01-05 @ Cork Hibernians W 2-142.9 1393 1197 50.93% 20.72% 28.35%+0.71 +11.9 15
1969-01-05 Cork Celtic D 3-362.7 1212 1179 57.79% 20.75% 21.46%+0.63 -2.1 6
1969-01-05 @ Drogheda United D 3-362.7 1179 1212 21.46% 20.75% 57.79%-0.63 +2.1 5
1969-01-05 Waterford D 1-154.7 1256 1436 30.39% 20.76% 48.85%-0.61 +1.6 12
1969-01-05 @ Limerick D 1-154.7 1436 1256 48.85% 20.76% 30.39%+0.61 -1.6 14
1969-01-05 Drumconda L 3-456.1 1153 1221 45.71% 20.89% 33.40%+0.04 -16.3 7
1969-01-05 @ Shelbourne W 4-356.1 1221 1153 33.40% 20.89% 45.71%-0.04 +16.3 9
1969-01-05 Shamrock Rovers L 1-641.4 1328 1433 40.55% 20.88% 38.58%-0.18 -61.6 12
1969-01-05 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 6-141.4 1433 1328 38.58% 20.88% 40.55%+0.18 +61.6 16
1969-01-12 Bohemian W 1-032.8 1181 1042 66.82% 20.37% 12.81%+1.24 +6.3 7
1969-01-12 @ Cork Celtic L 0-132.8 1042 1181 12.81% 20.37% 66.82%-1.24 -6.3 3
1969-01-12 Shelbourne W 4-024.8 1405 1137 73.89% 19.58% 6.53%+2.00 +11.9 17
1969-01-12 @ Dundalk L 0-424.8 1137 1405 6.53% 19.58% 73.89%-2.00 -11.9 7
1969-01-12 Drogheda United L 0-146.5 1238 1210 57.25% 20.76% 21.99%+0.60 -22.9 9
1969-01-12 @ Drumconda W 1-046.5 1210 1238 21.99% 20.76% 57.25%-0.60 +22.9 8
1969-01-12 Cork Hibernians W 3-133.8 1494 1185 75.51% 19.26% 5.24%+2.24 +4.4 18
1969-01-12 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-333.8 1185 1494 5.24% 19.26% 75.51%-2.24 -4.4 10
1969-01-12 Limerick L 1-344.4 1173 1257 43.49% 20.89% 35.63%-0.06 -29.2 9
1969-01-12 @ Sligo Rovers W 3-144.4 1257 1173 35.63% 20.89% 43.49%+0.06 +29.2 14
1969-01-12 St Patrick's Athletic W 5-343.2 1434 1266 68.77% 20.22% 11.01%+1.42 +7.6 16
1969-01-12 @ Waterford L 3-543.2 1266 1434 11.01% 20.22% 68.77%-1.42 -7.6 12
1969-01-19 Limerick W 2-037.7 1187 1286 41.38% 20.88% 37.74%-0.14 +30.0 9
1969-01-19 @ Cork Celtic L 0-237.7 1286 1187 37.74% 20.88% 41.38%+0.14 -30.0 14
1969-01-19 Shelbourne W 4-133.3 1233 1125 64.51% 20.51% 14.98%+1.06 +16.8 10
1969-01-19 @ Drogheda United L 1-433.3 1125 1233 14.98% 20.51% 64.51%-1.06 -16.8 7
1969-01-19 Bohemian W 5-130.2 1215 1036 69.43% 20.16% 10.41%+1.48 +15.5 11
1969-01-19 @ Drumconda L 1-530.2 1036 1215 10.41% 20.16% 69.43%-1.48 -15.6 3
1969-01-19 Dundalk W 2-145.5 1499 1417 62.40% 20.60% 16.99%+0.91 +7.7 20
1969-01-19 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-245.5 1417 1499 16.99% 20.60% 62.40%-0.91 -7.7 17
1969-01-19 St Patrick's Athletic W 4-141.0 1144 1258 39.22% 20.87% 39.91%-0.23 +38.5 11
1969-01-19 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-441.0 1258 1144 39.91% 20.87% 39.22%+0.23 -38.5 12
1969-01-26 Drogheda United L 0-430.0 1020 1249 24.58% 20.61% 54.81%-0.90 -40.0 3
1969-01-26 @ Bohemian W 4-030.0 1249 1020 54.81% 20.61% 24.58%+0.90 +40.0 12
1969-01-26 Sligo Rovers W 1-036.8 1181 1182 54.00% 20.82% 25.17%+0.43 +11.5 12
1969-01-26 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-136.8 1182 1181 25.17% 20.82% 54.00%-0.43 -11.5 11
1969-01-26 Waterford L 2-358.7 1409 1442 50.35% 20.87% 28.78%+0.25 -18.1 17
1969-01-26 @ Dundalk W 3-258.7 1442 1409 28.78% 20.87% 50.35%-0.25 +18.1 18
1969-01-26 Drumconda D 2-258.4 1256 1230 57.05% 20.77% 22.18%+0.59 -2.4 15
1969-01-26 @ Limerick D 2-258.4 1230 1256 22.18% 20.77% 57.05%-0.59 +2.4 12
1969-01-26 Shamrock Rovers L 1-730.0 1108 1507 10.82% 19.72% 69.47%-1.89 -23.1 7
1969-01-26 @ Shelbourne W 7-130.0 1507 1108 69.47% 19.72% 10.82%+1.89 +23.1 22
1969-01-26 Cork Celtic W 4-243.3 1220 1217 54.52% 20.82% 24.67%+0.45 +16.4 14
1969-01-26 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 2-443.3 1217 1220 24.67% 20.82% 54.52%-0.45 -16.4 9
1969-02-02 Shelbourne W 5-138.8 980 1085 40.62% 20.88% 38.50%-0.18 +48.3 5
1969-02-02 @ Bohemian L 1-538.8 1085 980 38.50% 20.88% 40.62%+0.18 -48.3 7
1969-02-02 Cork Hibernians L 1-250.3 1201 1192 55.16% 20.81% 24.04%+0.49 -20.8 9
1969-02-02 @ Cork Celtic W 2-150.3 1192 1201 24.04% 20.81% 55.16%-0.49 +20.8 14
1969-02-02 Limerick W 3-138.0 1289 1254 58.01% 20.75% 21.25%+0.64 +16.2 14
1969-02-02 @ Drogheda United L 1-338.0 1254 1289 21.25% 20.75% 58.01%-0.64 -16.2 15
1969-02-02 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-153.2 1233 1236 53.77% 20.83% 25.40%+0.42 -2.6 13
1969-02-02 @ Drumconda D 1-153.2 1236 1233 25.40% 20.83% 53.77%-0.42 +2.6 15
1969-02-02 Dundalk L 1-535.5 1171 1391 25.53% 20.64% 53.82%-0.85 -34.4 11
1969-02-02 @ Sligo Rovers W 5-135.5 1391 1171 53.82% 20.64% 25.53%+0.85 +34.4 19
1969-02-02 Shamrock Rovers W 5-146.9 1460 1530 45.45% 20.89% 33.66%+0.03 +43.3 20
1969-02-02 @ Waterford L 1-546.9 1530 1460 33.66% 20.89% 45.45%-0.03 -43.4 22
1969-02-16 Drumconda W 2-034.4 1213 1230 52.16% 20.85% 26.99%+0.34 +22.9 16
1969-02-16 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-234.4 1230 1213 26.99% 20.85% 52.16%-0.34 -22.9 13
1969-02-16 Cork Celtic W 3-026.5 1426 1180 72.93% 19.74% 7.34%+1.87 +10.2 21
1969-02-16 @ Dundalk L 0-326.5 1180 1426 7.34% 19.74% 72.93%-1.87 -10.2 9
1969-02-16 Bohemian W 2-028.5 1238 1029 71.13% 19.98% 8.89%+1.66 +8.5 17
1969-02-16 @ Limerick L 0-228.5 1029 1238 8.89% 19.98% 71.13%-1.66 -8.5 5
1969-02-16 Waterford L 2-534.8 1037 1503 7.62% 19.20% 73.18%-2.28 -7.6 7
1969-02-16 @ Shelbourne W 5-234.8 1503 1037 73.18% 19.20% 7.62%+2.28 +7.6 22
1969-02-23 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-136.8 1020 1239 25.72% 20.65% 53.63%-0.84 -11.6 5
1969-02-23 @ Bohemian W 1-036.8 1239 1020 53.63% 20.65% 25.72%+0.84 +11.6 17
1969-02-23 Shamrock Rovers L 0-232.1 1170 1486 16.27% 20.22% 63.51%-1.41 -14.7 9
1969-02-23 @ Cork Celtic W 2-032.1 1486 1170 63.51% 20.22% 16.27%+1.41 +14.7 24
1969-02-23 Cork Hibernians L 1-252.5 1306 1236 61.34% 20.65% 18.02%+0.84 -23.1 14
1969-02-23 @ Drogheda United W 2-152.5 1236 1306 18.02% 20.65% 61.34%-0.84 +23.1 18
1969-02-23 Dundalk L 0-531.4 1207 1436 24.63% 20.61% 54.76%-0.90 -49.4 13
1969-02-23 @ Drumconda W 5-031.4 1436 1207 54.76% 20.61% 24.63%+0.90 +49.4 23
1969-02-23 Shelbourne D 3-362.9 1246 1029 71.53% 19.93% 8.54%+1.70 -3.9 18
1969-02-23 @ Limerick D 3-362.9 1029 1246 8.54% 19.93% 71.53%-1.70 +3.9 8
1969-02-23 Waterford L 0-230.7 1136 1511 12.22% 19.88% 67.91%-1.75 -11.3 11
1969-02-23 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-030.7 1511 1136 67.91% 19.88% 12.22%+1.75 +11.3 24
1969-03-02 Drumconda W 2-137.8 1282 1158 65.83% 20.43% 13.74%+1.16 +6.3 16
1969-03-02 @ Drogheda United L 1-237.8 1158 1282 13.74% 20.43% 65.83%-1.16 -6.3 13
1969-03-09 Bohemian W 2-027.9 1259 1009 73.13% 19.70% 7.17%+1.90 +6.9 20
1969-03-09 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-227.9 1009 1259 7.17% 19.70% 73.13%-1.90 -6.9 5
1969-03-09 Drogheda United L 0-153.1 1485 1289 70.44% 20.05% 9.51%+1.58 -28.3 23
1969-03-09 @ Dundalk W 1-053.1 1289 1485 9.51% 20.05% 70.44%-1.58 +28.3 18
1969-03-09 Drumconda W 2-028.0 1501 1152 76.84% 18.93% 4.23%+2.48 +4.1 26
1969-03-09 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-228.0 1152 1501 4.23% 18.93% 76.84%-2.48 -4.1 13
1969-03-09 Sligo Rovers D 1-152.9 1033 1125 42.47% 20.88% 36.65%-0.10 -0.5 9
1969-03-09 @ Shelbourne D 1-152.9 1125 1033 36.65% 20.88% 42.47%+0.10 +0.5 12
1969-03-09 Limerick W 2-141.2 1251 1242 55.11% 20.81% 24.09%+0.48 +10.4 19
1969-03-09 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 1-241.2 1242 1251 24.09% 20.81% 55.11%-0.48 -10.4 18
1969-03-09 Cork Celtic W 3-240.8 1522 1155 77.38% 18.77% 3.85%+2.58 +1.8 26
1969-03-09 @ Waterford L 2-340.8 1155 1522 3.85% 18.77% 77.38%-2.58 -1.8 9
1969-03-16 Dundalk D 1-153.7 1002 1457 8.06% 19.29% 72.65%-2.22 +6.5 6
1969-03-16 @ Bohemian D 1-153.7 1457 1002 72.65% 19.29% 8.06%+2.22 -6.5 24
1969-03-16 Sligo Rovers L 1-348.3 1153 1125 57.21% 20.77% 22.03%+0.60 -37.3 9
1969-03-16 @ Cork Celtic W 3-148.3 1125 1153 22.03% 20.77% 57.21%-0.60 +37.3 14
1969-03-16 Shamrock Rovers W 2-152.6 1317 1505 29.38% 20.74% 49.89%-0.66 +18.9 20
1969-03-16 @ Drogheda United L 1-252.6 1505 1317 49.89% 20.74% 29.38%+0.66 -18.9 26
1969-03-16 Waterford L 1-238.4 1147 1524 12.10% 19.86% 68.04%-1.76 -5.6 13
1969-03-16 @ Drumconda W 2-138.4 1524 1147 68.04% 19.86% 12.10%+1.76 +5.6 28
1969-03-16 Cork Hibernians L 0-241.5 1232 1266 50.17% 20.87% 28.96%+0.24 -38.1 18
1969-03-16 @ Limerick W 2-041.5 1266 1232 28.96% 20.87% 50.17%-0.24 +38.1 22
1969-03-16 Shelbourne W 6-232.0 1261 1033 72.10% 19.85% 8.05%+1.77 +10.3 21
1969-03-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 2-632.0 1033 1261 8.05% 19.85% 72.10%-1.77 -10.3 9
1969-03-17 Drogheda United W 2-147.2 1194 1336 35.36% 20.83% 43.80%-0.39 +16.9 20
1969-03-17 @ Limerick L 1-247.2 1336 1194 43.80% 20.83% 35.36%+0.39 -16.9 20
1969-03-17 Cork Hibernians W 4-135.4 1529 1304 71.96% 19.87% 8.16%+1.75 +9.6 30
1969-03-17 @ Waterford L 1-435.4 1304 1529 8.16% 19.87% 71.96%-1.75 -9.6 22
1969-03-23 St Patrick's Athletic W 6-133.8 1294 1271 56.71% 20.78% 22.51%+0.57 +38.0 24
1969-03-23 @ Cork Hibernians L 1-633.8 1271 1294 22.51% 20.78% 56.71%-0.57 -38.0 21
1969-03-23 Limerick W 2-029.4 1450 1211 72.64% 19.78% 7.58%+1.84 +7.3 26
1969-03-23 @ Dundalk L 0-229.4 1211 1450 7.58% 19.78% 72.64%-1.84 -7.3 20
1969-03-23 Bohemian D 2-259.4 1486 1008 80.17% 17.70% 2.13%+3.23 -6.0 27
1969-03-23 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-259.4 1008 1486 2.13% 17.70% 80.17%-3.23 +5.9 7
1969-03-23 Cork Celtic W 2-144.6 1022 1116 42.24% 20.88% 36.88%-0.11 +14.7 11
1969-03-23 @ Shelbourne L 1-244.6 1116 1022 36.88% 20.88% 42.24%+0.11 -14.7 9
1969-03-23 Drumconda W 1-036.0 1163 1142 56.51% 20.78% 22.71%+0.56 +10.5 16
1969-03-23 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-136.0 1142 1163 22.71% 20.78% 56.51%-0.56 -10.5 13
1969-03-23 Drogheda United W 3-246.0 1539 1319 71.68% 19.91% 8.42%+1.72 +3.8 32
1969-03-23 @ Waterford L 2-346.0 1319 1539 8.42% 19.91% 71.68%-1.72 -3.8 20
1969-03-28 Waterford D 2-259.3 1014 1543 5.49% 18.66% 75.85%-2.65 +5.3 8
1969-03-28 @ Bohemian D 2-259.3 1543 1014 75.85% 18.66% 5.49%+2.65 -5.3 33
1969-03-29 Dundalk L 0-332.9 1233 1458 25.08% 20.63% 54.29%-0.87 -31.2 21
1969-03-29 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 3-032.9 1458 1233 54.29% 20.63% 25.08%+0.87 +31.2 28
1969-03-30 Sligo Rovers W 1-033.1 1315 1173 67.07% 20.35% 12.58%+1.27 +6.2 22
1969-03-30 @ Drogheda United L 0-133.1 1173 1315 12.58% 20.35% 67.07%-1.27 -6.2 16
1969-04-03 Drogheda United W 1-041.8 1202 1322 38.54% 20.86% 40.59%-0.26 +16.9 23
1969-04-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-141.8 1322 1202 40.59% 20.86% 38.54%+0.26 -16.9 22
1969-04-06 Drogheda United W 1-044.8 1101 1305 27.48% 20.70% 51.82%-0.75 +20.8 11
1969-04-06 @ Cork Celtic L 0-144.8 1305 1101 51.82% 20.70% 27.48%+0.75 -20.8 22
1969-04-06 Cork Hibernians L 0-250.4 1489 1332 68.05% 20.28% 11.67%+1.35 -51.4 28
1969-04-06 @ Dundalk W 2-050.4 1332 1489 11.67% 20.28% 68.05%-1.35 +51.4 26
1969-04-06 Shelbourne W 4-240.4 1131 1037 63.45% 20.56% 15.99%+0.99 +11.3 15
1969-04-06 @ Drumconda L 2-440.4 1037 1131 15.99% 20.56% 63.45%-0.99 -11.3 11
1969-04-06 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-027.2 1480 1219 73.61% 19.63% 6.77%+1.96 +9.5 29
1969-04-06 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-327.2 1219 1480 6.77% 19.63% 73.61%-1.96 -9.5 23
1969-04-06 Bohemian W 2-029.5 1167 1019 67.46% 20.32% 12.22%+1.30 +11.4 18
1969-04-06 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-229.5 1019 1167 12.22% 20.32% 67.46%-1.30 -11.4 8
1969-04-06 Limerick W 5-235.7 1537 1204 76.34% 19.06% 4.60%+2.39 +4.7 35
1969-04-06 @ Waterford L 2-535.7 1204 1537 4.60% 19.06% 76.34%-2.39 -4.7 20
1969-04-07 Shelbourne W 3-131.9 1384 1026 77.10% 18.85% 4.05%+2.53 +3.4 28
1969-04-07 @ Cork Hibernians L 1-331.9 1026 1384 4.05% 18.85% 77.10%-2.53 -3.4 11
1969-04-11 Sligo Rovers W 2-136.1 1490 1179 75.56% 19.25% 5.19%+2.25 +2.5 31
1969-04-11 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-236.1 1179 1490 5.19% 19.25% 75.56%-2.25 -2.5 18
1969-04-12 Cork Celtic W 5-029.7 1143 1122 56.49% 20.78% 22.73%+0.56 +46.3 17
1969-04-12 @ Drumconda L 0-529.7 1122 1143 22.73% 20.78% 56.49%-0.56 -46.3 11
1969-04-13 Cork Celtic W 4-245.7 1008 1076 45.78% 20.89% 33.33%+0.04 +21.1 10
1969-04-13 @ Bohemian L 2-445.7 1076 1008 33.33% 20.89% 45.78%-0.04 -21.1 11
1969-04-13 Shamrock Rovers W 2-043.3 1387 1492 40.58% 20.88% 38.54%-0.18 +30.5 30
1969-04-13 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-243.3 1492 1387 38.54% 20.88% 40.58%+0.18 -30.6 31
1969-04-13 Sligo Rovers L 0-243.1 1199 1176 56.70% 20.78% 22.52%+0.57 -42.7 20
1969-04-13 @ Limerick W 2-043.1 1176 1199 22.52% 20.78% 56.70%-0.57 +42.7 20
1969-04-13 Dundalk D 2-258.7 1022 1437 9.93% 19.60% 70.47%-1.99 +4.5 12
1969-04-13 @ Shelbourne D 2-258.7 1437 1022 70.47% 19.60% 9.93%+1.99 -4.5 29
1969-04-13 Waterford D 1-155.8 1210 1542 15.06% 20.13% 64.81%-1.50 +4.8 24
1969-04-13 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-155.8 1542 1210 64.81% 20.13% 15.06%+1.50 -4.8 36
1969-04-27 Shamrock Rovers W 3-150.7 1156 1462 17.19% 20.28% 62.53%-1.35 +40.7 22
1969-04-27 @ Limerick L 1-350.7 1462 1156 62.53% 20.28% 17.19%+1.35 -40.7 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1968-12-01 6.16% Sligo Rovers 1142 2 @ Waterford 1421 1
2 1969-03-09 9.51% Drogheda United 1289 1 @ Dundalk 1485 0
3 1969-04-06 11.67% Cork Hibernians 1332 2 @ Dundalk 1489 0
4 1969-04-27 17.19% @ Limerick 1156 3 Shamrock Rovers 1462 1
5 1969-02-23 18.02% Cork Hibernians 1236 2 @ Drogheda United 1306 1
6 1968-11-10 18.70% St Patrick's Athletic 1224 3 @ Cork Celtic 1286 1
7 1968-11-17 21.48% Waterford 1376 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1410 1
8 1969-01-12 21.99% Drogheda United 1210 1 @ Drumconda 1238 0
9 1969-03-16 22.03% Sligo Rovers 1125 3 @ Cork Celtic 1153 1
10 1968-12-29 22.46% Drumconda 1188 4 @ Cork Celtic 1212 2
11 1969-04-13 22.52% Sligo Rovers 1176 2 @ Limerick 1199 0
12 1968-11-03 23.69% Shamrock Rovers 1323 5 @ Dundalk 1335 1
13 1969-02-02 24.04% Cork Hibernians 1192 2 @ Cork Celtic 1201 1
14 1968-12-22 24.81% Dundalk 1325 3 @ Limerick 1326 0
15 1968-11-09 27.26% Limerick 1239 1 @ Drumconda 1219 0
16 1969-04-06 27.48% @ Cork Celtic 1101 1 Drogheda United 1305 0
17 1968-12-15 27.84% Limerick 1287 2 @ Cork Hibernians 1263 0
18 1968-12-08 28.12% Dundalk 1279 2 @ Drogheda United 1252 1
19 1969-01-26 28.78% Waterford 1442 3 @ Dundalk 1409 2
20 1969-03-16 28.96% Cork Hibernians 1266 2 @ Limerick 1232 0
21 1969-03-16 29.38% @ Drogheda United 1317 2 Shamrock Rovers 1505 1
22 1968-11-03 30.54% @ Cork Hibernians 1205 1 Waterford 1384 0
23 1969-01-05 33.40% Drumconda 1221 4 @ Shelbourne 1153 3
24 1968-12-15 33.79% St Patrick's Athletic 1265 4 @ Shelbourne 1194 1
25 1969-03-17 35.36% @ Limerick 1194 2 Drogheda United 1336 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-11-03 66.21 Shamrock Rovers 5 1323 23.69% @ Dundalk 1 1335 55.51% 20.80%
2 1969-01-05 61.59 Shamrock Rovers 6 1433 38.58% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1328 40.55% 20.88%
3 1968-12-22 59.64 Dundalk 3 1325 24.81% @ Limerick 0 1326 54.37% 20.82%
4 1969-04-06 51.44 Cork Hibernians 2 1332 11.67% @ Dundalk 0 1489 68.05% 20.28%
5 1969-02-23 49.40 Dundalk 5 1436 54.76% @ Drumconda 0 1207 24.63% 20.61%
6 1969-02-02 48.26 @ Bohemian 5 980 40.62% Shelbourne 1 1085 38.50% 20.88%
7 1969-04-12 46.29 @ Drumconda 5 1143 56.49% Cork Celtic 0 1122 22.73% 20.78%
8 1969-02-02 43.35 @ Waterford 5 1460 45.45% Shamrock Rovers 1 1530 33.66% 20.89%
9 1969-04-13 42.74 Sligo Rovers 2 1176 22.52% @ Limerick 0 1199 56.70% 20.78%
10 1968-12-15 42.72 St Patrick's Athletic 4 1265 33.79% @ Shelbourne 1 1194 45.33% 20.89%
11 1969-04-27 40.66 @ Limerick 3 1156 17.19% Shamrock Rovers 1 1462 62.53% 20.28%
12 1969-01-26 40.01 Drogheda United 4 1249 54.81% @ Bohemian 0 1020 24.58% 20.61%
13 1968-11-10 39.54 St Patrick's Athletic 3 1224 18.70% @ Cork Celtic 1 1286 60.63% 20.67%
14 1968-12-15 38.91 Limerick 2 1287 27.84% @ Cork Hibernians 0 1263 51.30% 20.86%
15 1969-01-19 38.46 @ Sligo Rovers 4 1144 39.22% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1258 39.91% 20.87%
16 1969-03-16 38.13 Cork Hibernians 2 1266 28.96% @ Limerick 0 1232 50.17% 20.87%
17 1969-03-23 38.02 @ Cork Hibernians 6 1294 56.71% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1271 22.51% 20.78%
18 1969-03-16 37.33 Sligo Rovers 3 1125 22.03% @ Cork Celtic 1 1153 57.21% 20.77%
19 1969-02-02 34.44 Dundalk 5 1391 53.82% @ Sligo Rovers 1 1171 25.53% 20.64%
20 1968-12-29 33.15 Drumconda 4 1188 22.46% @ Cork Celtic 2 1212 56.77% 20.78%
21 1969-03-29 31.16 Dundalk 3 1458 54.29% @ St Patrick's Athletic 0 1233 25.08% 20.63%
22 1969-04-13 30.55 @ Cork Hibernians 2 1387 40.58% Shamrock Rovers 0 1492 38.54% 20.88%
23 1969-01-19 30.04 @ Cork Celtic 2 1187 41.38% Limerick 0 1286 37.74% 20.88%
24 1969-01-12 29.17 Limerick 3 1257 35.63% @ Sligo Rovers 1 1173 43.49% 20.89%
25 1968-12-22 28.98 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1307 62.53% Cork Hibernians 0 1224 16.87% 20.60%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-11-24 62.9 @ Cork Celtic 3 1223 49.35% Dundalk 3 1263 29.78% 20.87%
2 1969-02-23 62.9 @ Limerick 3 1246 71.53% Shelbourne 3 1029 8.54% 19.93%
3 1969-01-05 62.7 @ Drogheda United 3 1212 57.79% Cork Celtic 3 1179 21.46% 20.75%
4 1968-12-15 59.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1404 69.02% Drogheda United 2 1232 10.79% 20.19%
5 1969-03-23 59.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1486 80.17% Bohemian 2 1008 2.13% 17.70%
6 1969-03-28 59.3 @ Bohemian 2 1014 5.49% Waterford 2 1543 75.85% 18.66%
7 1968-12-08 58.9 @ Drumconda 2 1187 25.62% Shamrock Rovers 2 1406 53.73% 20.65%
8 1969-01-26 58.7 Waterford 3 1442 28.78% @ Dundalk 2 1409 50.35% 20.87%
9 1969-04-13 58.7 @ Shelbourne 2 1022 9.93% Dundalk 2 1437 70.47% 19.60%
10 1968-11-03 58.4 @ Shelbourne 2 1227 49.06% Drogheda United 2 1269 30.06% 20.87%
11 1969-01-26 58.4 @ Limerick 2 1256 57.05% Drumconda 2 1230 22.18% 20.77%
12 1968-11-24 58.2 @ Drumconda 2 1203 50.34% Cork Hibernians 2 1235 28.80% 20.87%
13 1968-12-08 58.1 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1170 51.59% Shelbourne 2 1192 27.55% 20.85%
14 1968-12-01 56.1 Sligo Rovers 2 1142 6.16% @ Waterford 1 1421 74.34% 19.50%
15 1969-01-05 56.1 Drumconda 4 1221 33.40% @ Shelbourne 3 1153 45.71% 20.89%
16 1969-04-13 55.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1210 15.06% Waterford 1 1542 64.81% 20.13%
17 1969-01-05 54.7 @ Limerick 1 1256 30.39% Waterford 1 1436 48.85% 20.76%
18 1968-11-17 54.2 Waterford 2 1376 21.48% @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1410 57.77% 20.75%
19 1968-12-08 53.9 @ Cork Celtic 1 1214 30.57% Waterford 1 1393 48.67% 20.76%
20 1969-03-16 53.7 @ Bohemian 1 1002 8.06% Dundalk 1 1457 72.65% 19.29%
21 1968-11-24 53.4 @ Drogheda United 1 1266 54.89% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1260 24.29% 20.81%
22 1968-11-17 53.3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1264 60.89% Drumconda 1 1199 18.45% 20.66%
23 1968-11-10 53.2 @ Drogheda United 1 1271 64.48% Bohemian 1 1164 15.02% 20.51%
24 1968-12-01 53.2 @ Shelbourne 1 1193 43.66% Limerick 1 1276 35.45% 20.89%
25 1969-02-02 53.2 @ Drumconda 1 1233 53.77% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1236 25.40% 20.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-01-12 24.8 @ Dundalk 4 1405 73.89% Shelbourne 0 1137 6.53% 19.58%
2 1969-02-16 26.5 @ Dundalk 3 1426 72.93% Cork Celtic 0 1180 7.34% 19.74%
3 1968-12-15 26.6 @ Dundalk 6 1298 69.72% Bohemian 0 1114 10.15% 20.13%
4 1968-11-24 26.7 @ Waterford 5 1398 69.66% Shelbourne 0 1215 10.20% 20.13%
5 1968-11-13 26.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1389 68.51% Shelbourne 0 1226 11.26% 20.24%
6 1969-04-06 27.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1480 73.61% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1219 6.77% 19.63%
7 1968-12-29 27.4 @ Waterford 6 1428 77.23% Bohemian 1 1066 3.95% 18.81%
8 1969-03-09 27.9 @ Cork Hibernians 2 1259 73.13% Bohemian 0 1009 7.17% 19.70%
9 1969-03-09 28.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1501 76.84% Drumconda 0 1152 4.23% 18.93%
10 1968-12-22 28.2 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1307 62.53% Cork Hibernians 0 1224 16.87% 20.60%
11 1969-02-16 28.5 @ Limerick 2 1238 71.13% Bohemian 0 1029 8.89% 19.98%
12 1968-12-22 28.9 Shamrock Rovers 3 1400 63.15% @ Bohemian 0 1088 16.61% 20.24%
13 1969-03-23 29.4 @ Dundalk 2 1450 72.64% Limerick 0 1211 7.58% 19.78%
14 1969-04-06 29.5 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1167 67.46% Bohemian 0 1019 12.22% 20.32%
15 1969-04-12 29.7 @ Drumconda 5 1143 56.49% Cork Celtic 0 1122 22.73% 20.78%
16 1969-01-26 30.0 Drogheda United 4 1249 54.81% @ Bohemian 0 1020 24.58% 20.61%
17 1969-01-26 30.0 Shamrock Rovers 7 1507 69.47% @ Shelbourne 1 1108 10.82% 19.72%
18 1969-01-19 30.2 @ Drumconda 5 1215 69.43% Bohemian 1 1036 10.41% 20.16%
19 1968-12-01 30.3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1262 65.47% Bohemian 0 1143 14.08% 20.45%
20 1969-02-23 30.7 Waterford 2 1511 67.91% @ Sligo Rovers 0 1136 12.22% 19.88%
21 1968-12-29 31.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1422 67.96% Limerick 0 1267 11.76% 20.28%
22 1969-02-23 31.4 Dundalk 5 1436 54.76% @ Drumconda 0 1207 24.63% 20.61%
23 1969-04-07 31.9 @ Cork Hibernians 3 1384 77.10% Shelbourne 1 1026 4.05% 18.85%
24 1969-03-16 32.0 @ St Patrick's Athletic 6 1261 72.10% Shelbourne 2 1033 8.05% 19.85%
25 1969-02-23 32.1 Shamrock Rovers 2 1486 63.51% @ Cork Celtic 0 1170 16.27% 20.22%