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2002-03 League of Ireland Premier Division Season

135 games

Final

Champion

Bohemian

54 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Drogheda United

16.43 points above expected

30 points · 13.57 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St Patrick's Athletic

11.04 points below expected

33 points · 44.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bohemian 27 15 9 3 54 47 27 +20 53.61 +0.39
2 Shelbourne 27 15 4 8 49 44 26 +18 48.29 +0.71
3 Shamrock Rovers 27 12 7 8 43 42 29 +13 42.90 +0.10
4 Cork City 27 11 6 10 39 37 34 +3 41.63 -2.63
5 Longford Town 27 8 11 8 35 25 29 -4 28.43 +6.57
6 UC Dublin 27 8 9 10 33 23 25 -2 31.28 +1.72
7 St Patrick's Athletic 27 8 9 10 33 27 33 -6 44.04 -11.04
8 Derry City 27 8 7 12 31 31 37 -6 35.95 -4.95
9 Drogheda United 27 8 6 13 30 26 40 -14 13.57 +16.43
10 Bray Wanderers 27 4 8 15 20 31 53 -22 28.23 -8.23

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Drogheda United 30 13.57 +16.43
2 Longford Town 35 28.43 +6.57
3 UC Dublin 33 31.28 +1.72
4 Shelbourne 49 48.29 +0.71
5 Bohemian 54 53.61 +0.39

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St Patrick's Athletic 33 44.04 -11.04
2 Bray Wanderers 20 28.23 -8.23
3 Derry City 31 35.95 -4.95
4 Cork City 39 41.63 -2.63
5 Shamrock Rovers 43 42.90 +0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Longford Town 3 Jan 10 – Jan 21 1 in 201
2 Shamrock Rovers 3 Sep 20 – Oct 11 1 in 30
3 Shelbourne 5 Dec 2 – Jan 2 1 in 24
4 Derry City 2 Aug 23 – Aug 29 1 in 21
5 Drogheda United 1 Jul 5 – Jul 5 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Derry City 4 Nov 21 – Dec 8 1 in 82
2 St Patrick's Athletic 4 Nov 29 – Dec 21 1 in 76
3 Bray Wanderers 4 Dec 20 – Jan 10 1 in 66
4 Shamrock Rovers 3 Jul 21 – Aug 5 1 in 29
5 Cork City 3 Sep 16 – Sep 27 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Drogheda United 5 Nov 22 – Dec 20 1 in 239
2 Shamrock Rovers 10 Sep 20 – Nov 29 1 in 52
3 Bohemian 15 Jul 5 – Nov 1 1 in 22
4 Derry City 7 Aug 23 – Oct 19 1 in 17
5 Longford Town 4 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St Patrick's Athletic 6 Sep 20 – Oct 25 1 in 67
2 Longford Town 11 Oct 19 – Jan 7 1 in 45
3 Shamrock Rovers 7 Jul 21 – Sep 13 1 in 37
4 UC Dublin 8 Jul 5 – Sep 13 1 in 28
5 Bohemian 4 Oct 20 – Nov 8 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Bohemian 1444 54 -82 5 10.0 -5.0
Shelbourne 1425 49 -52 7 10.9 -3.9
Shamrock Rovers 1384 43 +32 11 9.4 +1.6
Cork City 1253 39 -52 4 8.1 -4.1
Longford Town 1234 35 +108 10 3.5 +6.5
UC Dublin 1294 33 +60 11 8.1 +2.9
St Patrick's Athletic 1225 33 +29 8 6.5 +1.5
Derry City 1229 31 +0 5 4.8 +0.2
Drogheda United 1094 30 +21 5 3.1 +1.9
Bray Wanderers 1115 20 -46 1 3.7 -2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BW CC DC DU LT SR SHE SPA UD
Bohemian —
2-1-0
6.47
1-2-0
5.70
2-1-0
5.92
2-1-0
7.52
2-0-1
6.24
2-1-0
5.81
2-0-1
4.23
0-2-1
5.23
2-1-0
6.38
Bray Wanderers
0-1-2
1.76
 —
0-0-3
2.52
0-1-2
2.99
1-0-2
6.30
1-1-1
4.19
0-1-2
2.18
0-0-3
2.34
2-1-0
2.12
0-3-0
3.45
Cork City
0-2-1
2.45
3-0-0
5.63
 —
2-1-0
4.74
1-1-1
7.00
0-1-2
5.38
1-1-1
4.44
2-0-1
3.22
1-0-2
3.94
1-0-2
5.10
Derry City
0-1-2
2.26
2-1-0
5.15
0-1-2
3.39
 —
1-0-2
7.03
0-3-0
4.96
0-1-2
2.95
1-0-2
2.61
2-0-1
3.25
2-0-1
4.34
Drogheda United
0-1-2
0.92
2-0-1
1.91
1-1-1
1.32
2-0-1
1.29
 —
0-1-2
1.80
1-0-2
1.51
1-1-1
1.10
0-2-1
1.64
1-0-2
2.16
Longford Town
1-0-2
1.96
1-1-1
3.92
2-1-0
2.75
0-3-0
3.16
2-1-0
6.41
 —
1-1-1
2.27
0-1-2
2.01
1-1-1
2.37
0-2-1
4.21
Shamrock Rovers
0-1-2
2.35
2-1-0
6.00
1-1-1
3.68
2-1-0
5.18
2-0-1
6.76
1-1-1
5.90
 —
1-1-1
2.96
2-0-1
3.51
1-1-1
5.49
Shelbourne
1-0-2
3.89
3-0-0
5.86
1-0-2
4.90
2-0-1
5.54
1-1-1
7.27
2-1-0
6.21
1-1-1
5.17
 —
1-1-1
4.45
3-0-0
5.45
St Patrick's Athletic
1-2-0
2.95
0-1-2
6.06
2-0-1
4.17
1-0-2
4.87
1-2-0
6.69
1-1-1
5.80
1-0-2
4.63
1-1-1
3.67
 —
0-2-1
5.33
UC Dublin
0-1-2
1.84
0-3-0
4.69
2-0-1
3.02
1-0-2
3.79
2-0-1
6.01
1-2-0
3.90
1-1-1
2.65
0-0-3
2.71
1-2-0
2.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.63 +9.1
Allowed 0.59 -9.0
Differential 0.96 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.63%9.63%5.93%2.22%0.37%0.37%28.15%
19.63%13.33%8.52%3.70%1.11%0.37%36.67%
25.93%8.52%3.70%3.70%——21.85%
32.22%3.70%3.70%1.48%——11.11%
40.37%1.11%————1.48%
5+0.37%0.37%————0.74%
Total28.15%36.67%21.85%11.11%1.48%0.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.07 1.07 1.50
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
17.41%29.63%3.70%———40.74%
27.41%14.81%3.70%———25.93%
33.70%7.41%11.11%———22.22%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.74 1.00 +0.74
SD 1.02 0.68 1.26
CV 0.59 0.68 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%—25.93%
1—11.11%14.81%18.52%—3.70%48.15%
23.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
3——3.70%3.70%——7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total14.81%22.22%25.93%29.63%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.96 -0.81
SD 1.03 1.29 1.62
CV 0.89 0.65 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%18.52%3.70%———29.63%
13.70%14.81%3.70%—7.41%—29.63%
23.70%7.41%—3.70%——14.81%
37.41%7.41%11.11%———25.93%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%48.15%18.52%3.70%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.26 +0.11
SD 1.18 1.10 1.58
CV 0.86 0.87 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%11.11%3.70%3.70%——25.93%
17.41%11.11%11.11%11.11%——40.74%
211.11%7.41%3.70%3.70%——25.93%
3—3.70%—3.70%——7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%33.33%18.52%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.37 -0.22
SD 0.91 1.11 1.40
CV 0.79 0.81 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%7.41%7.41%—3.70%40.74%
111.11%7.41%11.11%3.70%——33.33%
23.70%7.41%—3.70%——14.81%
3—3.70%3.70%3.70%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%29.63%22.22%18.52%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.48 -0.52
SD 1.02 1.28 1.63
CV 1.06 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%11.11%3.70%——33.33%
118.52%22.22%3.70%———44.44%
23.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%——18.52%
3——3.70%———3.70%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%25.93%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.07 -0.15
SD 0.83 0.96 1.17
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%14.81%————29.63%
13.70%11.11%————14.81%
23.70%18.52%—14.81%——37.04%
3—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total25.93%55.56%3.70%14.81%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.07 +0.48
SD 1.34 0.96 1.45
CV 0.86 0.89 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%14.81%—3.70%——22.22%
17.41%3.70%11.11%———22.22%
214.81%14.81%3.70%———33.33%
37.41%7.41%—3.70%——18.52%
4———————
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total33.33%44.44%14.81%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 0.96 +0.67
SD 1.24 0.90 1.62
CV 0.76 0.93 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%3.70%18.52%———33.33%
114.81%11.11%11.11%—3.70%—40.74%
23.70%7.41%11.11%———22.22%
3———————
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total29.63%25.93%40.74%—3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.22 -0.22
SD 0.96 1.01 1.40
CV 0.96 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%7.41%7.41%———33.33%
122.22%11.11%14.81%3.70%——51.85%
23.70%—3.70%3.70%——11.11%
33.70%—————3.70%
4———————
5+———————
Total48.15%18.52%25.93%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 0.93 -0.07
SD 0.77 1.04 1.21
CV 0.90 1.12 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Bohemian 1444 54 53.61 +0.39 55.0% 40 43 49 54 57 63 69
Shelbourne 1425 49 48.29 +0.71 60.0% 36 38 44 48 53 59 67
Shamrock Rovers 1384 43 42.90 +0.10 57.0% 25 33 39 42 47 54 59
UC Dublin 1294 33 31.28 +1.72 67.0% 17 24 27 31 35 41 49
Cork City 1253 39 41.63 -2.63 41.0% 26 30 36 42 46 53 58
Longford Town 1234 35 28.43 +6.57 90.0% 15 19 25 28 32 38 46
Derry City 1229 31 35.95 -4.95 23.0% 18 25 32 37 39 45 51
St Patrick's Athletic 1225 33 44.04 -11.04 5.0% 27 33 40 45 48 54 64
Bray Wanderers 1115 20 28.23 -8.23 8.0% 17 19 25 28 32 37 45
Drogheda United 1094 30 13.57 +16.43 100.0% 3 6 10 13 17 21 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.07%
Clear Edge
42.96%28.15%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.23 Elo pts.
471 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Bohemian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Comfortable
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.85 * Some Luck: 4.85 to 7.28 * Lucky: 7.28 to 9.7 * Wild Swing: 9.7 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.84 * Close: 0.84 to 1.26 * Off: 1.26 to 1.68 * Way Off: 1.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.33 points
Lucky
06.0715
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Off
01.052.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Drogheda United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
St Patrick's Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 119.40
1.48
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%68%100%
Blowouts
Expected 10%
9%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.78
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.40
Overconfident
0.2241781.001.77582
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.131
Well Within Noise
00.1480.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Bohemian58.00%26.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%—————
Shelbourne21.00%31.00%23.00%15.00%6.00%4.00%————
Shamrock Rovers6.00%13.00%19.00%22.00%25.00%10.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%—
Cork City6.00%6.00%21.00%19.00%17.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%—
Longford Town—1.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%8.00%23.00%28.00%32.00%2.00%
UC Dublin—1.00%3.00%3.00%4.00%16.00%26.00%32.00%14.00%1.00%
St Patrick's Athletic8.00%20.00%21.00%21.00%13.00%11.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Derry City1.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%28.00%26.00%15.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%
Drogheda United——————1.00%2.00%3.00%94.00%
Bray Wanderers———2.00%3.00%6.00%22.00%21.00%44.00%2.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Bohemian 100% — —
Cork City 99.00% 1.00% —
Shamrock Rovers 99.00% 1.00% —
Shelbourne 100% — —
St Patrick's Athletic 99.00% 1.00% —
Derry City 95.00% 4.00% 1.00%
UC Dublin 85.00% 14.00% 1.00%
Bray Wanderers 54.00% 44.00% 2.00%
Longford Town 66.00% 32.00% 2.00%
Drogheda United 3.00% 3.00% 94.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-07-05 Derry City W 2-155.9 864 1297 5.95% 22.02% 72.03%-0.82 +33.2 3
2002-07-05 @ Drogheda United L 1-255.9 1297 864 72.03% 22.02% 5.95%+0.82 -33.2 0
2002-07-05 Longford Town D 2-259.0 1269 1186 51.88% 28.76% 19.36%+0.28 -2.7 1
2002-07-05 @ Bray Wanderers D 2-259.0 1186 1269 19.36% 28.76% 51.88%-0.28 +2.7 1
2002-07-05 Shelbourne W 3-038.3 1275 1371 28.74% 29.72% 41.54%-0.10 +60.6 3
2002-07-05 @ Cork City L 0-338.3 1371 1275 41.54% 29.72% 28.74%+0.10 -60.6 0
2002-07-05 UC Dublin W 2-142.3 1402 1275 56.39% 27.93% 15.68%+0.37 +9.8 3
2002-07-05 @ Bohemian L 1-242.3 1275 1402 15.68% 27.93% 56.39%-0.37 -9.8 0
2002-07-11 Drogheda United D 3-365.1 1310 897 76.45% 19.39% 4.16%+0.98 -5.4 1
2002-07-11 @ Shelbourne D 3-365.1 897 1310 4.16% 19.39% 76.45%-0.98 +5.4 4
2002-07-11 Shamrock Rovers L 1-247.5 1264 1324 33.53% 29.85% 36.62%-0.02 -17.8 0
2002-07-11 @ Derry City W 2-147.5 1324 1264 36.62% 29.85% 33.53%+0.02 +17.8 3
2002-07-12 Bray Wanderers D 1-152.8 1265 1266 41.77% 29.71% 28.52%+0.10 -1.4 1
2002-07-12 @ UC Dublin D 1-152.8 1266 1265 28.52% 29.71% 41.77%-0.10 +1.4 2
2002-07-13 Bohemian L 1-241.7 1189 1412 15.86% 27.98% 56.16%-0.37 -9.9 1
2002-07-13 @ Longford Town W 2-141.7 1412 1189 56.16% 27.98% 15.86%+0.37 +9.9 6
2002-07-19 Derry City W 3-246.0 1422 1246 60.76% 26.80% 12.44%+0.48 +7.5 9
2002-07-19 @ Bohemian L 2-346.0 1246 1422 12.44% 26.80% 60.76%-0.48 -7.5 0
2002-07-19 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-234.5 902 1433 3.82% 18.76% 77.42%-1.02 -2.2 4
2002-07-19 @ Drogheda United W 2-134.5 1433 902 77.42% 18.76% 3.82%+1.02 +2.2 3
2002-07-19 UC Dublin W 3-248.5 1336 1264 50.62% 28.94% 20.44%+0.26 +11.6 6
2002-07-19 @ Cork City L 2-348.5 1264 1336 20.44% 28.94% 50.62%-0.26 -11.6 1
2002-07-21 Longford Town L 0-148.0 1342 1179 59.65% 27.13% 13.23%+0.45 -30.2 3
2002-07-21 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-048.0 1179 1342 13.23% 27.13% 59.65%-0.45 +30.2 4
2002-08-01 Longford Town D 1-152.6 1239 1209 45.68% 29.46% 24.86%+0.17 -2.2 1
2002-08-01 @ Derry City D 1-152.6 1209 1239 24.86% 29.46% 45.68%-0.17 +2.2 5
2002-08-02 Shamrock Rovers W 3-248.6 1430 1312 55.48% 28.12% 16.40%+0.36 +9.7 12
2002-08-02 @ Bohemian L 2-348.6 1312 1430 16.40% 28.12% 55.48%-0.36 -9.7 3
2002-08-02 Shelbourne L 1-343.4 1252 1305 34.63% 29.86% 35.51%-0.01 -31.6 1
2002-08-02 @ UC Dublin W 3-143.4 1305 1252 35.51% 29.86% 34.63%+0.01 +31.6 4
2002-08-04 Cork City W 1-049.8 900 1347 5.59% 21.57% 72.84%-0.85 +35.5 7
2002-08-04 @ Drogheda United L 0-149.8 1347 900 72.84% 21.57% 5.59%+0.85 -35.5 6
2002-08-05 Shelbourne L 1-539.4 1268 1336 32.35% 29.84% 37.81%-0.04 -55.0 2
2002-08-05 @ Bray Wanderers W 5-139.4 1336 1268 37.81% 29.84% 32.35%+0.04 +55.0 7
2002-08-05 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-140.0 1302 1435 24.32% 29.41% 46.26%-0.18 -14.9 3
2002-08-05 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-040.0 1435 1302 46.26% 29.41% 24.32%+0.18 +14.9 6
2002-08-09 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-251.4 1391 1450 33.76% 29.86% 36.39%-0.02 -17.9 7
2002-08-09 @ Shelbourne W 2-151.4 1450 1391 36.39% 29.86% 33.76%+0.02 +17.9 9
2002-08-10 Drogheda United W 2-137.2 1211 936 68.25% 23.94% 7.80%+0.69 +4.9 8
2002-08-10 @ Longford Town L 1-237.2 936 1211 7.80% 23.94% 68.25%-0.69 -4.9 7
2002-08-11 Bohemian D 1-154.2 1213 1439 15.62% 27.91% 56.47%-0.38 +4.7 3
2002-08-11 @ Bray Wanderers D 1-154.2 1439 1213 56.47% 27.91% 15.62%+0.38 -4.8 13
2002-08-11 Derry City W 3-138.7 1312 1236 51.04% 28.88% 20.08%+0.26 +20.9 9
2002-08-11 @ Cork City L 1-338.7 1236 1312 20.08% 28.88% 51.04%-0.26 -20.9 1
2002-08-11 UC Dublin D 0-047.8 1287 1221 50.05% 29.01% 20.94%+0.25 -3.6 4
2002-08-11 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-047.8 1221 1287 20.94% 29.01% 50.05%-0.25 +3.6 2
2002-08-23 Bohemian D 1-158.8 1468 1435 46.13% 29.43% 24.45%+0.18 -2.4 10
2002-08-23 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-158.8 1435 1468 24.45% 29.43% 46.13%-0.18 +2.3 14
2002-08-23 Bray Wanderers W 3-029.7 1333 1217 55.21% 28.18% 16.61%+0.35 +29.9 12
2002-08-23 @ Cork City L 0-329.7 1217 1333 16.61% 28.18% 55.21%-0.35 -29.9 3
2002-08-23 Derry City L 0-239.3 1224 1215 43.06% 29.64% 27.29%+0.12 -42.9 2
2002-08-23 @ UC Dublin W 2-039.3 1215 1224 27.29% 29.64% 43.06%-0.12 +42.9 4
2002-08-23 Longford Town W 3-028.8 1373 1216 59.13% 27.27% 13.60%+0.44 +25.0 10
2002-08-23 @ Shelbourne L 0-328.8 1216 1373 13.60% 27.27% 59.13%-0.44 -25.0 8
2002-08-23 Shamrock Rovers W 3-260.2 931 1284 8.61% 24.60% 66.78%-0.65 +29.8 10
2002-08-23 @ Drogheda United L 2-360.2 1284 931 66.78% 24.60% 8.61%+0.65 -29.8 4
2002-08-29 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-044.3 1258 1465 17.15% 28.31% 54.54%-0.34 +52.5 7
2002-08-29 @ Derry City L 0-244.3 1465 1258 54.54% 28.31% 17.15%+0.34 -52.5 10
2002-08-30 Cork City D 1-156.1 1437 1363 50.94% 28.89% 20.17%+0.26 -3.4 15
2002-08-30 @ Bohemian D 1-156.1 1363 1437 20.17% 28.89% 50.94%-0.26 +3.4 13
2002-08-30 Drogheda United W 3-243.3 1188 960 64.81% 25.41% 9.78%+0.59 +5.9 6
2002-08-30 @ Bray Wanderers L 2-343.3 960 1188 9.78% 25.41% 64.81%-0.59 -5.9 10
2002-08-31 UC Dublin D 1-152.5 1191 1181 43.18% 29.64% 27.18%+0.13 -1.7 9
2002-08-31 @ Longford Town D 1-152.5 1181 1191 27.18% 29.64% 43.18%-0.13 +1.7 3
2002-09-02 Shelbourne D 0-048.6 1254 1398 23.02% 29.28% 47.70%-0.20 +3.0 5
2002-09-02 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-048.6 1398 1254 47.70% 29.28% 23.02%+0.20 -3.0 11
2002-09-13 Bohemian L 1-251.9 1395 1433 36.66% 29.85% 33.49%+0.02 -19.0 11
2002-09-13 @ Shelbourne W 2-151.9 1433 1395 33.49% 29.85% 36.66%-0.02 +19.0 18
2002-09-13 Derry City D 3-362.5 1193 1311 26.08% 29.56% 44.36%-0.14 +1.2 7
2002-09-13 @ Bray Wanderers D 3-362.5 1311 1193 44.36% 29.56% 26.08%+0.14 -1.2 8
2002-09-13 Longford Town D 2-260.6 1413 1190 64.51% 25.53% 9.96%+0.58 -4.9 11
2002-09-13 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-260.6 1190 1413 9.96% 25.53% 64.51%-0.58 +4.9 10
2002-09-13 Shamrock Rovers W 3-247.4 1366 1257 54.62% 28.29% 17.09%+0.34 +10.0 16
2002-09-13 @ Cork City L 2-347.4 1257 1366 17.09% 28.29% 54.62%-0.34 -10.0 5
2002-09-13 UC Dublin W 1-046.8 954 1183 15.46% 27.87% 56.67%-0.38 +28.8 13
2002-09-13 @ Drogheda United L 0-146.8 1183 954 56.67% 27.87% 15.46%+0.38 -28.8 3
2002-09-16 Cork City W 4-140.2 1408 1376 45.97% 29.44% 24.59%+0.17 +34.8 14
2002-09-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 1-440.2 1376 1408 24.59% 29.44% 45.97%-0.17 -34.8 16
2002-09-19 Shelbourne W 1-043.4 1310 1376 32.61% 29.84% 37.55%-0.04 +20.5 11
2002-09-19 @ Derry City L 0-143.4 1376 1310 37.55% 29.84% 32.61%+0.04 -20.5 11
2002-09-20 Bray Wanderers W 2-143.4 1247 1195 48.41% 29.21% 22.39%+0.22 +13.2 8
2002-09-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-243.4 1195 1247 22.39% 29.21% 48.41%-0.22 -13.2 7
2002-09-20 Drogheda United W 3-129.9 1452 983 79.28% 17.51% 3.21%+1.10 +3.1 21
2002-09-20 @ Bohemian L 1-329.9 983 1452 3.21% 17.51% 79.28%-1.10 -3.1 13
2002-09-20 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-048.9 1154 1443 11.65% 26.45% 61.91%-0.51 +31.2 6
2002-09-20 @ UC Dublin L 0-148.9 1443 1154 61.91% 26.45% 11.65%+0.51 -31.2 14
2002-09-21 Cork City W 3-256.5 1194 1341 22.79% 29.25% 47.95%-0.21 +22.2 13
2002-09-21 @ Longford Town L 2-356.5 1341 1194 47.95% 29.25% 22.79%+0.21 -22.2 16
2002-09-23 Bray Wanderers L 1-255.6 1411 1181 65.02% 25.33% 9.65%+0.59 -30.7 14
2002-09-23 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 2-155.6 1181 1411 9.65% 25.33% 65.02%-0.59 +30.7 10
2002-09-26 Drogheda United W 2-135.9 1330 980 72.92% 21.53% 5.56%+0.85 +3.4 14
2002-09-26 @ Derry City L 1-235.9 980 1330 5.56% 21.53% 72.92%-0.85 -3.4 13
2002-09-27 Bohemian L 1-240.8 1186 1456 12.70% 26.92% 60.38%-0.47 -8.1 6
2002-09-27 @ UC Dublin W 2-140.8 1456 1186 60.38% 26.92% 12.70%+0.47 +8.1 24
2002-09-27 Cork City W 2-145.3 1356 1319 46.58% 29.39% 24.03%+0.18 +13.9 14
2002-09-27 @ Shelbourne L 1-245.3 1319 1356 24.03% 29.39% 46.58%-0.18 -14.0 16
2002-09-27 Shamrock Rovers L 1-254.0 1381 1260 55.77% 28.06% 16.17%+0.36 -26.8 14
2002-09-27 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 2-154.0 1260 1381 16.17% 28.06% 55.77%-0.36 +26.8 11
2002-09-28 Bray Wanderers W 1-039.0 1217 1212 42.50% 29.67% 27.83%+0.11 +16.5 16
2002-09-28 @ Longford Town L 0-139.0 1212 1217 27.83% 29.67% 42.50%-0.11 -16.5 10
2002-10-02 Longford Town W 1-033.8 1464 1233 65.04% 25.32% 9.64%+0.59 +6.5 27
2002-10-02 @ Bohemian L 0-133.8 1233 1464 9.64% 25.32% 65.04%-0.59 -6.5 16
2002-10-04 Shelbourne L 0-324.9 977 1370 7.16% 23.35% 69.48%-0.73 -13.0 13
2002-10-04 @ Drogheda United W 3-024.9 1370 977 69.48% 23.35% 7.16%+0.73 +13.0 17
2002-10-04 UC Dublin D 0-047.3 1196 1177 44.25% 29.57% 26.18%+0.14 -2.2 11
2002-10-04 @ Bray Wanderers D 0-047.3 1177 1196 26.18% 29.57% 44.25%-0.14 +2.2 7
2002-10-11 Longford Town L 0-133.6 964 1227 13.13% 27.09% 59.78%-0.45 -8.8 13
2002-10-11 @ Drogheda United W 1-033.6 1227 964 59.78% 27.09% 13.13%+0.45 +8.8 19
2002-10-11 Shamrock Rovers L 1-245.1 1180 1287 27.33% 29.64% 43.03%-0.12 -15.4 7
2002-10-11 @ UC Dublin W 2-145.1 1287 1180 43.03% 29.64% 27.33%+0.12 +15.4 14
2002-10-11 Shelbourne D 2-260.8 1354 1383 37.97% 29.83% 32.19%+0.04 -0.4 15
2002-10-11 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-260.8 1383 1354 32.19% 29.83% 37.97%-0.04 +0.5 18
2002-10-13 Bray Wanderers W 4-027.2 1470 1193 68.31% 23.92% 7.78%+0.69 +18.6 30
2002-10-13 @ Bohemian L 0-427.2 1193 1470 7.78% 23.92% 68.31%-0.69 -18.6 11
2002-10-13 Cork City D 0-048.4 1334 1305 45.56% 29.47% 24.97%+0.17 -2.5 15
2002-10-13 @ Derry City D 0-048.4 1305 1334 24.97% 29.47% 45.56%-0.17 +2.5 17
2002-10-18 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-047.9 1175 1354 19.62% 28.80% 51.58%-0.28 +4.0 12
2002-10-18 @ Bray Wanderers D 0-047.9 1354 1175 51.58% 28.80% 19.62%+0.28 -4.0 16
2002-10-18 UC Dublin W 2-139.0 1383 1164 64.19% 25.65% 10.16%+0.57 +6.5 21
2002-10-18 @ Shelbourne L 1-239.0 1164 1383 10.16% 25.65% 64.19%-0.57 -6.5 7
2002-10-19 Derry City D 1-153.0 1236 1331 28.78% 29.72% 41.49%-0.10 +1.3 20
2002-10-19 @ Longford Town D 1-153.0 1331 1236 41.49% 29.72% 28.78%+0.10 -1.3 16
2002-10-20 Bohemian D 1-156.0 1302 1489 18.90% 28.67% 52.43%-0.29 +3.8 15
2002-10-20 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-156.0 1489 1302 52.43% 28.67% 18.90%+0.29 -3.8 31
2002-10-20 Drogheda United W 1-029.6 1308 955 73.06% 21.44% 5.49%+0.85 +3.5 20
2002-10-20 @ Cork City L 0-129.6 955 1308 5.49% 21.44% 73.06%-0.85 -3.5 13
2002-10-25 Cork City L 2-349.3 1179 1311 24.39% 29.42% 46.19%-0.18 -13.4 12
2002-10-25 @ Bray Wanderers W 3-249.3 1311 1179 46.19% 29.42% 24.39%+0.18 +13.4 23
2002-10-25 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-157.3 1485 1350 57.15% 27.76% 15.09%+0.39 -4.9 32
2002-10-25 @ Bohemian D 1-157.3 1350 1485 15.09% 27.76% 57.15%-0.39 +4.9 17
2002-10-26 Shelbourne L 0-233.8 1237 1390 22.16% 29.18% 48.66%-0.22 -26.2 20
2002-10-26 @ Longford Town W 2-033.8 1390 1237 48.66% 29.18% 22.16%+0.22 +26.2 24
2002-11-01 Bohemian D 1-156.2 1324 1480 21.87% 29.14% 48.99%-0.23 +3.0 24
2002-11-01 @ Cork City D 1-156.2 1480 1324 48.99% 29.14% 21.87%+0.23 -3.0 33
2002-11-01 Bray Wanderers W 2-152.7 951 1166 16.58% 28.17% 55.25%-0.35 +26.5 16
2002-11-01 @ Drogheda United L 1-252.7 1166 951 55.25% 28.17% 16.58%+0.35 -26.5 12
2002-11-01 Derry City W 1-039.6 1354 1330 45.08% 29.51% 25.41%+0.16 +15.4 20
2002-11-01 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-139.6 1330 1354 25.41% 29.51% 45.08%-0.16 -15.4 16
2002-11-01 Longford Town D 0-047.2 1158 1211 34.53% 29.86% 35.61%-0.01 +0.1 8
2002-11-01 @ UC Dublin D 0-047.2 1211 1158 35.61% 29.86% 34.53%+0.01 -0.1 21
2002-11-01 Shamrock Rovers L 0-148.5 1416 1306 54.69% 28.28% 17.03%+0.34 -27.9 24
2002-11-01 @ Shelbourne W 1-048.5 1306 1416 17.03% 28.28% 54.69%-0.34 +27.9 18
2002-11-04 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-038.3 1327 1370 36.04% 29.86% 34.11%+0.01 +36.1 27
2002-11-04 @ Cork City L 0-238.3 1370 1327 34.11% 29.86% 36.04%-0.01 -36.1 20
2002-11-05 Drogheda United W 5-025.5 1334 978 73.26% 21.33% 5.41%+0.86 +15.3 21
2002-11-05 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-525.5 978 1334 5.41% 21.33% 73.26%-0.86 -15.2 16
2002-11-07 Bray Wanderers W 3-135.5 1314 1139 60.70% 26.82% 12.48%+0.48 +13.8 19
2002-11-07 @ Derry City L 1-335.5 1139 1314 12.48% 26.82% 60.70%-0.48 -13.7 12
2002-11-08 Cork City W 4-140.8 1349 1364 39.95% 29.78% 30.27%+0.07 +40.6 24
2002-11-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-440.8 1364 1349 30.27% 29.78% 39.95%-0.07 -40.6 27
2002-11-08 Drogheda United W 3-027.0 1158 963 62.33% 26.31% 11.36%+0.52 +21.1 11
2002-11-08 @ UC Dublin L 0-327.0 963 1158 11.36% 26.31% 62.33%-0.52 -21.1 16
2002-11-08 Shelbourne L 1-257.3 1477 1388 52.53% 28.66% 18.81%+0.29 -25.4 33
2002-11-08 @ Bohemian W 2-157.3 1388 1477 18.81% 28.66% 52.53%-0.29 +25.4 27
2002-11-09 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-138.6 1211 1334 25.42% 29.51% 45.07%-0.16 -15.4 21
2002-11-09 @ Longford Town W 1-038.6 1334 1211 45.07% 29.51% 25.42%+0.16 +15.5 23
2002-11-12 UC Dublin W 1-034.4 1328 1179 58.42% 27.45% 14.13%+0.42 +9.5 22
2002-11-12 @ Derry City L 0-134.4 1179 1328 14.13% 27.45% 58.42%-0.42 -9.5 11
2002-11-16 Longford Town D 1-153.3 1323 1195 56.43% 27.92% 15.65%+0.38 -4.7 28
2002-11-16 @ Cork City D 1-153.3 1195 1323 15.65% 27.92% 56.43%-0.38 +4.7 22
2002-11-17 Bohemian L 0-224.5 942 1452 4.19% 19.45% 76.35%-0.98 -4.9 16
2002-11-17 @ Drogheda United W 2-024.5 1452 942 76.35% 19.45% 4.19%+0.98 +4.9 36
2002-11-17 Shamrock Rovers D 1-153.6 1125 1390 13.04% 27.05% 59.91%-0.46 +5.5 13
2002-11-17 @ Bray Wanderers D 1-153.6 1390 1125 59.91% 27.05% 13.04%+0.46 -5.6 25
2002-11-18 UC Dublin D 2-259.8 1349 1169 61.07% 26.71% 12.22%+0.49 -4.4 24
2002-11-18 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-259.8 1169 1349 12.22% 26.71% 61.07%-0.49 +4.3 12
2002-11-21 Bohemian L 0-335.8 1337 1456 25.90% 29.55% 44.55%-0.15 -42.9 22
2002-11-21 @ Derry City W 3-035.8 1456 1337 44.55% 29.55% 25.90%+0.15 +42.9 39
2002-11-22 Cork City W 1-045.0 1174 1318 23.05% 29.28% 47.67%-0.20 +24.8 15
2002-11-22 @ UC Dublin L 0-145.0 1318 1174 47.67% 29.28% 23.05%+0.20 -24.8 28
2002-11-22 Drogheda United D 1-155.4 1345 937 76.17% 19.57% 4.26%+0.97 -8.7 25
2002-11-22 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-155.4 937 1345 4.26% 19.57% 76.17%-0.97 +8.7 17
2002-11-22 Shelbourne L 1-239.8 1131 1413 11.97% 26.60% 61.44%-0.50 -7.6 13
2002-11-22 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-139.8 1413 1131 61.44% 26.60% 11.97%+0.50 +7.6 30
2002-11-23 Shamrock Rovers D 0-048.2 1200 1384 19.11% 28.71% 52.18%-0.29 +4.2 23
2002-11-23 @ Longford Town D 0-048.2 1384 1200 52.18% 28.71% 19.11%+0.29 -4.2 26
2002-11-29 Derry City W 3-150.8 946 1295 8.77% 24.72% 66.50%-0.64 +54.1 20
2002-11-29 @ Drogheda United L 1-350.8 1295 946 66.50% 24.72% 8.77%+0.64 -54.2 22
2002-11-29 Longford Town W 2-038.1 1123 1204 30.67% 29.80% 39.53%-0.07 +40.2 16
2002-11-29 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-238.1 1204 1123 39.53% 29.80% 30.67%+0.07 -40.2 23
2002-11-29 Shelbourne W 2-152.3 1293 1421 24.91% 29.47% 45.62%-0.17 +22.5 31
2002-11-29 @ Cork City L 1-252.3 1421 1293 45.62% 29.47% 24.91%+0.17 -22.5 30
2002-11-29 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-145.5 1380 1336 47.42% 29.31% 23.27%+0.20 +13.6 29
2002-11-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-245.5 1336 1380 23.27% 29.31% 47.42%-0.20 -13.6 25
2002-11-29 UC Dublin D 1-156.1 1499 1199 69.89% 23.15% 6.96%+0.74 -7.7 40
2002-11-29 @ Bohemian D 1-156.1 1199 1499 6.96% 23.15% 69.89%-0.74 +7.7 16
2002-12-02 Derry City W 2-030.7 1398 1240 59.21% 27.24% 13.54%+0.44 +17.1 33
2002-12-02 @ Shelbourne L 0-230.7 1240 1398 13.54% 27.24% 59.21%-0.44 -17.1 22
2002-12-06 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-033.8 1416 1323 52.96% 28.59% 18.45%+0.30 +22.5 36
2002-12-06 @ Shelbourne L 0-233.8 1323 1416 18.45% 28.59% 52.96%-0.30 -22.5 25
2002-12-06 UC Dublin L 0-148.8 1394 1206 61.70% 26.51% 11.79%+0.50 -31.1 29
2002-12-06 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-048.8 1206 1394 11.79% 26.51% 61.70%-0.50 +31.1 19
2002-12-07 Drogheda United D 0-047.9 1164 1000 59.75% 27.10% 13.15%+0.45 -6.2 24
2002-12-07 @ Longford Town D 0-047.9 1000 1164 13.15% 27.10% 59.75%-0.45 +6.2 21
2002-12-08 Bohemian L 1-335.3 1163 1492 9.66% 25.34% 65.01%-0.59 -10.7 16
2002-12-08 @ Bray Wanderers W 3-135.3 1492 1163 65.01% 25.34% 9.66%+0.59 +10.7 43
2002-12-08 Derry City W 2-142.4 1316 1223 52.91% 28.59% 18.49%+0.30 +11.3 34
2002-12-08 @ Cork City L 1-242.4 1223 1316 18.49% 28.59% 52.91%-0.30 -11.3 22
2002-12-12 Longford Town D 1-152.6 1212 1158 48.66% 29.18% 22.17%+0.22 -2.9 23
2002-12-12 @ Derry City D 1-152.6 1158 1212 22.17% 29.18% 48.66%-0.22 +2.9 25
2002-12-13 Bray Wanderers L 1-446.7 1300 1153 58.26% 27.49% 14.25%+0.42 -68.2 25
2002-12-13 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 4-146.7 1153 1300 14.25% 27.49% 58.26%-0.42 +68.2 19
2002-12-13 Shamrock Rovers W 3-250.7 1502 1362 57.57% 27.66% 14.77%+0.40 +8.8 46
2002-12-13 @ Bohemian L 2-350.7 1362 1502 14.77% 27.66% 57.57%-0.40 -8.8 29
2002-12-13 Shelbourne L 0-232.6 1237 1438 17.66% 28.42% 53.92%-0.32 -21.7 19
2002-12-13 @ UC Dublin W 2-032.6 1438 1237 53.92% 28.42% 17.66%+0.32 +21.7 39
2002-12-15 Cork City D 0-048.5 1006 1327 9.98% 25.54% 64.48%-0.58 +7.4 22
2002-12-15 @ Drogheda United D 0-048.5 1327 1006 64.48% 25.54% 9.98%+0.58 -7.4 35
2002-12-16 Derry City W 3-136.7 1354 1209 58.01% 27.56% 14.44%+0.41 +15.8 32
2002-12-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-336.7 1209 1354 14.44% 27.56% 58.01%-0.41 -15.8 23
2002-12-19 Cork City W 2-033.0 1511 1320 62.02% 26.41% 11.57%+0.51 +14.8 49
2002-12-19 @ Bohemian L 0-233.0 1320 1511 11.57% 26.41% 62.02%-0.51 -14.8 35
2002-12-20 Drogheda United L 0-244.1 1221 1013 63.32% 25.97% 10.72%+0.55 -60.0 19
2002-12-20 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-044.1 1013 1221 10.72% 25.97% 63.32%-0.55 +60.0 25
2002-12-21 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-036.5 1193 1232 36.61% 29.85% 33.54%+0.02 +35.7 26
2002-12-21 @ Derry City L 0-236.5 1232 1193 33.54% 29.85% 36.61%-0.02 -35.7 25
2002-12-22 Shelbourne L 0-143.5 1369 1460 29.43% 29.75% 40.82%-0.09 -17.2 32
2002-12-22 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-043.5 1460 1369 40.82% 29.75% 29.43%+0.09 +17.2 42
2002-12-27 Bohemian W 2-046.5 1196 1526 9.59% 25.29% 65.12%-0.60 +61.5 28
2002-12-27 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-246.5 1526 1196 65.12% 25.29% 9.59%+0.60 -61.4 49
2002-12-27 Bray Wanderers W 3-136.3 1305 1161 57.97% 27.56% 14.47%+0.41 +15.8 38
2002-12-27 @ Cork City L 1-336.3 1161 1305 14.47% 27.56% 57.97%-0.41 -15.8 19
2002-12-27 Derry City W 1-039.7 1216 1229 40.10% 29.78% 30.12%+0.08 +17.5 22
2002-12-27 @ UC Dublin L 0-139.7 1229 1216 30.12% 29.78% 40.10%-0.08 -17.5 26
2002-12-27 Shamrock Rovers L 0-229.1 1073 1352 12.18% 26.69% 61.13%-0.49 -15.5 25
2002-12-27 @ Drogheda United W 2-029.1 1352 1073 61.13% 26.69% 12.18%+0.49 +15.5 35
2002-12-30 UC Dublin L 0-235.9 1161 1233 31.81% 29.83% 38.37%-0.05 -34.4 25
2002-12-30 @ Longford Town W 2-035.9 1233 1161 38.37% 29.83% 31.81%+0.05 +34.4 25
2003-01-02 Shelbourne L 0-135.2 1211 1477 12.97% 27.02% 60.01%-0.46 -8.7 26
2003-01-02 @ Derry City W 1-035.2 1477 1211 60.01% 27.02% 12.97%+0.46 +8.7 45
2003-01-03 Bray Wanderers W 3-134.5 1368 1145 64.46% 25.55% 9.99%+0.58 +11.0 38
2003-01-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-334.5 1145 1368 9.99% 25.55% 64.46%-0.58 -11.0 19
2003-01-03 Drogheda United D 1-155.8 1464 1058 76.10% 19.61% 4.29%+0.97 -8.7 50
2003-01-03 @ Bohemian D 1-155.8 1058 1464 4.29% 19.61% 76.10%-0.97 +8.7 26
2003-01-03 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-047.7 1268 1258 43.21% 29.63% 27.16%+0.13 -1.9 26
2003-01-03 @ UC Dublin D 0-047.7 1258 1268 27.16% 29.63% 43.21%-0.13 +1.9 29
2003-01-07 Longford Town D 1-155.8 1486 1126 73.47% 21.21% 5.32%+0.87 -8.3 46
2003-01-07 @ Shelbourne D 1-155.8 1126 1486 5.32% 21.21% 73.47%-0.87 +8.3 26
2003-01-10 Derry City L 1-246.4 1134 1203 32.33% 29.84% 37.83%-0.04 -17.4 19
2003-01-10 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-146.4 1203 1134 37.83% 29.84% 32.33%+0.04 +17.4 29
2003-01-10 Longford Town L 0-242.7 1259 1135 56.15% 27.98% 15.86%+0.37 -53.9 29
2003-01-10 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 2-042.7 1135 1259 15.86% 27.98% 56.15%-0.37 +53.9 29
2003-01-10 Shamrock Rovers D 1-154.1 1321 1379 33.84% 29.86% 36.31%-0.02 +0.2 39
2003-01-10 @ Cork City D 1-154.1 1379 1321 36.31% 29.86% 33.84%+0.02 -0.3 39
2003-01-10 UC Dublin L 0-135.4 1067 1266 17.80% 28.45% 53.75%-0.32 -11.6 26
2003-01-10 @ Drogheda United W 1-035.4 1266 1067 53.75% 28.45% 17.80%+0.32 +11.6 29
2003-01-12 Bohemian L 0-151.3 1477 1456 44.71% 29.54% 25.75%+0.15 -23.5 46
2003-01-12 @ Shelbourne W 1-051.3 1456 1477 25.75% 29.54% 44.71%-0.15 +23.5 53
2003-01-13 Cork City W 1-044.6 1189 1321 24.34% 29.42% 46.25%-0.18 +24.1 32
2003-01-13 @ Longford Town L 0-144.6 1321 1189 46.25% 29.42% 24.34%+0.18 -24.1 39
2003-01-16 Shamrock Rovers D 0-048.2 1220 1378 21.59% 29.10% 49.30%-0.23 +3.4 30
2003-01-16 @ Derry City D 0-048.2 1378 1220 49.30% 29.10% 21.59%+0.23 -3.4 40
2003-01-17 Bray Wanderers D 0-048.1 1277 1117 59.43% 27.18% 13.38%+0.45 -6.1 30
2003-01-17 @ UC Dublin D 0-048.1 1117 1277 13.38% 27.18% 59.43%-0.45 +6.1 20
2003-01-17 Cork City W 1-043.1 1206 1297 29.30% 29.75% 40.95%-0.09 +21.9 32
2003-01-17 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-143.1 1297 1206 40.95% 29.75% 29.30%+0.09 -21.9 39
2003-01-20 Drogheda United L 0-150.6 1454 1055 75.69% 19.87% 4.44%+0.95 -36.3 46
2003-01-20 @ Shelbourne W 1-050.6 1055 1454 4.44% 19.87% 75.69%-0.95 +36.3 29
2003-01-21 Bohemian W 1-049.4 1213 1479 12.91% 27.00% 60.09%-0.46 +30.4 35
2003-01-21 @ Longford Town L 0-149.4 1479 1213 60.09% 27.00% 12.91%+0.46 -30.4 53
2003-01-24 Bray Wanderers W 3-133.1 1418 1123 69.51% 23.34% 7.15%+0.73 +7.7 49
2003-01-24 @ Shelbourne L 1-333.1 1123 1418 7.15% 23.34% 69.51%-0.73 -7.7 20
2003-01-26 Derry City D 2-261.2 1449 1224 64.66% 25.47% 9.87%+0.58 -5.0 54
2003-01-26 @ Bohemian D 2-261.2 1224 1449 9.87% 25.47% 64.66%-0.58 +5.0 31
2003-01-26 Longford Town W 3-246.7 1375 1243 56.84% 27.83% 15.33%+0.39 +9.1 43
2003-01-26 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-346.7 1243 1375 15.33% 27.83% 56.84%-0.39 -9.1 35
2003-01-26 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-047.3 1091 1227 23.94% 29.38% 46.69%-0.18 +2.8 30
2003-01-26 @ Drogheda United D 0-047.3 1227 1091 46.69% 29.38% 23.94%+0.18 -2.8 33
2003-01-26 UC Dublin L 0-143.7 1275 1271 42.41% 29.68% 27.91%+0.11 -22.5 39
2003-01-26 @ Cork City W 1-043.7 1271 1275 27.91% 29.68% 42.41%-0.11 +22.5 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-01-20 4.44% Drogheda United 1055 1 @ Shelbourne 1454 0
2 2002-08-04 5.59% @ Drogheda United 900 1 Cork City 1347 0
3 2002-07-05 5.95% @ Drogheda United 864 2 Derry City 1297 1
4 2002-08-23 8.61% @ Drogheda United 931 3 Shamrock Rovers 1284 2
5 2002-11-29 8.77% @ Drogheda United 946 3 Derry City 1295 1
6 2002-12-27 9.59% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1196 2 Bohemian 1526 0
7 2002-09-23 9.65% Bray Wanderers 1181 2 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1411 1
8 2002-12-20 10.72% Drogheda United 1013 2 @ Bray Wanderers 1221 0
9 2002-09-20 11.65% @ UC Dublin 1154 1 St Patrick's Athletic 1443 0
10 2002-12-06 11.79% UC Dublin 1206 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1394 0
11 2003-01-21 12.91% @ Longford Town 1213 1 Bohemian 1479 0
12 2002-07-21 13.23% Longford Town 1179 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1342 0
13 2002-12-13 14.25% Bray Wanderers 1153 4 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1300 1
14 2002-09-13 15.46% @ Drogheda United 954 1 UC Dublin 1183 0
15 2003-01-10 15.86% Longford Town 1135 2 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1259 0
16 2002-09-27 16.17% Shamrock Rovers 1260 2 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1381 1
17 2002-11-01 16.58% @ Drogheda United 951 2 Bray Wanderers 1166 1
18 2002-11-01 17.03% Shamrock Rovers 1306 1 @ Shelbourne 1416 0
19 2002-08-29 17.15% @ Derry City 1258 2 St Patrick's Athletic 1465 0
20 2002-11-08 18.81% Shelbourne 1388 2 @ Bohemian 1477 1
21 2002-09-21 22.79% @ Longford Town 1194 3 Cork City 1341 2
22 2002-11-22 23.05% @ UC Dublin 1174 1 Cork City 1318 0
23 2003-01-13 24.34% @ Longford Town 1189 1 Cork City 1321 0
24 2002-11-29 24.91% @ Cork City 1293 2 Shelbourne 1421 1
25 2003-01-12 25.75% Bohemian 1456 1 @ Shelbourne 1477 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-12-13 68.22 Bray Wanderers 4 1153 14.25% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1300 58.26% 27.49%
2 2002-12-27 61.45 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1196 9.59% Bohemian 0 1526 65.12% 25.29%
3 2002-07-05 60.63 @ Cork City 3 1275 28.74% Shelbourne 0 1371 41.54% 29.72%
4 2002-12-20 60.00 Drogheda United 2 1013 10.72% @ Bray Wanderers 0 1221 63.32% 25.97%
5 2002-08-05 55.00 Shelbourne 5 1336 37.81% @ Bray Wanderers 1 1268 32.35% 29.84%
6 2002-11-29 54.16 @ Drogheda United 3 946 8.77% Derry City 1 1295 66.50% 24.72%
7 2003-01-10 53.88 Longford Town 2 1135 15.86% @ St Patrick's Athletic 0 1259 56.15% 27.98%
8 2002-08-29 52.50 @ Derry City 2 1258 17.15% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1465 54.54% 28.31%
9 2002-08-23 42.95 Derry City 2 1215 27.29% @ UC Dublin 0 1224 43.06% 29.64%
10 2002-11-21 42.91 Bohemian 3 1456 44.55% @ Derry City 0 1337 25.90% 29.55%
11 2002-11-08 40.61 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1349 39.95% Cork City 1 1364 30.27% 29.78%
12 2002-11-29 40.19 @ Bray Wanderers 2 1123 30.67% Longford Town 0 1204 39.53% 29.80%
13 2003-01-20 36.32 Drogheda United 1 1055 4.44% @ Shelbourne 0 1454 75.69% 19.87%
14 2002-11-04 36.12 @ Cork City 2 1327 36.04% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1370 34.11% 29.86%
15 2002-12-21 35.69 @ Derry City 2 1193 36.61% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1232 33.54% 29.85%
16 2002-08-04 35.48 @ Drogheda United 1 900 5.59% Cork City 0 1347 72.84% 21.57%
17 2002-09-16 34.77 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1408 45.97% Cork City 1 1376 24.59% 29.44%
18 2002-12-30 34.37 UC Dublin 2 1233 38.37% @ Longford Town 0 1161 31.81% 29.83%
19 2002-07-05 33.20 @ Drogheda United 2 864 5.95% Derry City 1 1297 72.03% 22.02%
20 2002-08-02 31.62 Shelbourne 3 1305 35.51% @ UC Dublin 1 1252 34.63% 29.86%
21 2002-09-20 31.19 @ UC Dublin 1 1154 11.65% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1443 61.91% 26.45%
22 2002-12-06 31.10 UC Dublin 1 1206 11.79% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1394 61.70% 26.51%
23 2002-09-23 30.69 Bray Wanderers 2 1181 9.65% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1411 65.02% 25.33%
24 2003-01-21 30.38 @ Longford Town 1 1213 12.91% Bohemian 0 1479 60.09% 27.00%
25 2002-07-21 30.18 Longford Town 1 1179 13.23% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1342 59.65% 27.13%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-07-11 65.1 @ Shelbourne 3 1310 76.45% Drogheda United 3 897 4.16% 19.39%
2 2002-09-13 62.5 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1193 26.08% Derry City 3 1311 44.36% 29.56%
3 2003-01-26 61.2 @ Bohemian 2 1449 64.66% Derry City 2 1224 9.87% 25.47%
4 2002-10-11 60.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1354 37.97% Shelbourne 2 1383 32.19% 29.83%
5 2002-09-13 60.6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1413 64.51% Longford Town 2 1190 9.96% 25.53%
6 2002-08-23 60.2 @ Drogheda United 3 931 8.61% Shamrock Rovers 2 1284 66.78% 24.60%
7 2002-11-18 59.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1349 61.07% UC Dublin 2 1169 12.22% 26.71%
8 2002-07-05 59.0 @ Bray Wanderers 2 1269 51.88% Longford Town 2 1186 19.36% 28.76%
9 2002-08-23 58.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1468 46.13% Bohemian 1 1435 24.45% 29.43%
10 2002-10-25 57.3 @ Bohemian 1 1485 57.15% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1350 15.09% 27.76%
11 2002-11-08 57.3 Shelbourne 2 1388 18.81% @ Bohemian 1 1477 52.53% 28.66%
12 2002-09-21 56.5 @ Longford Town 3 1194 22.79% Cork City 2 1341 47.95% 29.25%
13 2002-11-01 56.2 @ Cork City 1 1324 21.87% Bohemian 1 1480 48.99% 29.14%
14 2002-08-30 56.1 @ Bohemian 1 1437 50.94% Cork City 1 1363 20.17% 28.89%
15 2002-11-29 56.1 @ Bohemian 1 1499 69.89% UC Dublin 1 1199 6.96% 23.15%
16 2002-10-20 56.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1302 18.90% Bohemian 1 1489 52.43% 28.67%
17 2002-07-05 55.9 @ Drogheda United 2 864 5.95% Derry City 1 1297 72.03% 22.02%
18 2003-01-03 55.8 @ Bohemian 1 1464 76.10% Drogheda United 1 1058 4.29% 19.61%
19 2003-01-07 55.8 @ Shelbourne 1 1486 73.47% Longford Town 1 1126 5.32% 21.21%
20 2002-09-23 55.6 Bray Wanderers 2 1181 9.65% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1411 65.02% 25.33%
21 2002-11-22 55.4 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1345 76.17% Drogheda United 1 937 4.26% 19.57%
22 2002-08-11 54.2 @ Bray Wanderers 1 1213 15.62% Bohemian 1 1439 56.47% 27.91%
23 2003-01-10 54.1 @ Cork City 1 1321 33.84% Shamrock Rovers 1 1379 36.31% 29.86%
24 2002-09-27 54.0 Shamrock Rovers 2 1260 16.17% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1381 55.77% 28.06%
25 2002-11-17 53.6 @ Bray Wanderers 1 1125 13.04% Shamrock Rovers 1 1390 59.91% 27.05%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-11-17 24.5 Bohemian 2 1452 76.35% @ Drogheda United 0 942 4.19% 19.45%
2 2002-10-04 24.9 Shelbourne 3 1370 69.48% @ Drogheda United 0 977 7.16% 23.35%
3 2002-11-05 25.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1334 73.26% Drogheda United 0 978 5.41% 21.33%
4 2002-11-08 27.0 @ UC Dublin 3 1158 62.33% Drogheda United 0 963 11.36% 26.31%
5 2002-10-13 27.2 @ Bohemian 4 1470 68.31% Bray Wanderers 0 1193 7.78% 23.92%
6 2002-08-23 28.8 @ Shelbourne 3 1373 59.13% Longford Town 0 1216 13.60% 27.27%
7 2002-12-27 29.1 Shamrock Rovers 2 1352 61.13% @ Drogheda United 0 1073 12.18% 26.69%
8 2002-10-20 29.6 @ Cork City 1 1308 73.06% Drogheda United 0 955 5.49% 21.44%
9 2002-08-23 29.7 @ Cork City 3 1333 55.21% Bray Wanderers 0 1217 16.61% 28.18%
10 2002-09-20 29.9 @ Bohemian 3 1452 79.28% Drogheda United 1 983 3.21% 17.51%
11 2002-12-02 30.7 @ Shelbourne 2 1398 59.21% Derry City 0 1240 13.54% 27.24%
12 2002-12-13 32.6 Shelbourne 2 1438 53.92% @ UC Dublin 0 1237 17.66% 28.42%
13 2002-12-19 33.0 @ Bohemian 2 1511 62.02% Cork City 0 1320 11.57% 26.41%
14 2003-01-24 33.1 @ Shelbourne 3 1418 69.51% Bray Wanderers 1 1123 7.15% 23.34%
15 2002-10-11 33.6 Longford Town 1 1227 59.78% @ Drogheda United 0 964 13.13% 27.09%
16 2002-10-02 33.8 @ Bohemian 1 1464 65.04% Longford Town 0 1233 9.64% 25.32%
17 2002-10-26 33.8 Shelbourne 2 1390 48.66% @ Longford Town 0 1237 22.16% 29.18%
18 2002-12-06 33.8 @ Shelbourne 2 1416 52.96% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1323 18.45% 28.59%
19 2002-11-12 34.4 @ Derry City 1 1328 58.42% UC Dublin 0 1179 14.13% 27.45%
20 2002-07-19 34.5 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1433 77.42% @ Drogheda United 1 902 3.82% 18.76%
21 2003-01-03 34.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1368 64.46% Bray Wanderers 1 1145 9.99% 25.55%
22 2003-01-02 35.2 Shelbourne 1 1477 60.01% @ Derry City 0 1211 12.97% 27.02%
23 2002-12-08 35.3 Bohemian 3 1492 65.01% @ Bray Wanderers 1 1163 9.66% 25.34%
24 2003-01-10 35.4 UC Dublin 1 1266 53.75% @ Drogheda United 0 1067 17.80% 28.45%
25 2002-11-07 35.5 @ Derry City 3 1314 60.70% Bray Wanderers 1 1139 12.48% 26.82%