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2025 League of Ireland Premier Division Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Shamrock Rovers

66 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Derry City

8.81 points above expected

63 points · 54.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cork City

18.01 points below expected

24 points · 42.01 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 36 19 9 8 66 56 33 +23 61.39 +4.61
2 Derry City 36 18 9 9 63 52 39 +13 54.19 +8.81
3 Shelbourne 36 15 14 7 59 48 37 +11 55.69 +3.31
4 Bohemian 36 16 6 14 54 48 39 +9 48.10 +5.90
5 St Patrick's Athletic 36 13 13 10 52 42 32 +10 58.90 -6.90
6 Drogheda United 36 12 15 9 51 38 38 0 45.75 +5.25
7 Sligo Rovers 36 11 8 17 41 42 54 -12 38.10 +2.90
8 Galway United 36 9 12 15 39 37 44 -7 48.17 -9.17
9 Waterford 36 11 6 19 39 41 60 -19 36.85 +2.15
10 Cork City 36 4 12 20 24 33 61 -28 42.01 -18.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Derry City 63 54.19 +8.81
2 Bohemian 54 48.10 +5.90
3 Drogheda United 51 45.75 +5.25
4 Shamrock Rovers 66 61.39 +4.61
5 Shelbourne 59 55.69 +3.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cork City 24 42.01 -18.01
2 Galway United 39 48.17 -9.17
3 St Patrick's Athletic 52 58.90 -6.90
4 Waterford 39 36.85 +2.15
5 Sligo Rovers 41 38.10 +2.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Waterford 4 Apr 25 – May 9 1 in 425
2 Shelbourne 5 Sep 26 – Oct 26 1 in 85
3 Shamrock Rovers 5 May 5 – May 23 1 in 48
4 Bohemian 3 Apr 18 – Apr 25 1 in 45
5 Derry City 4 Jun 20 – Jul 4 1 in 44

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Waterford 7 Mar 7 – Apr 21 1 in 428
2 Galway United 4 May 2 – May 16 1 in 168
3 St Patrick's Athletic 3 Jun 16 – Jun 23 1 in 43
4 Shamrock Rovers 3 Oct 10 – Oct 26 1 in 39
5 Cork City 4 Apr 4 – Apr 18 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sligo Rovers 5 Jun 23 – Jul 25 1 in 29
2 Derry City 10 Aug 8 – Nov 1 1 in 26
3 Shamrock Rovers 11 Apr 25 – Jun 20 1 in 25
4 Galway United 7 Feb 14 – Mar 28 1 in 19
5 Waterford 4 Apr 25 – May 9 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork City 14 Apr 26 – Jul 25 1 in 120
2 Galway United 11 Jun 23 – Sep 22 1 in 109
3 St Patrick's Athletic 6 Jun 13 – Jul 4 1 in 32
4 Shelbourne 5 Apr 18 – May 5 1 in 14
5 Waterford 7 Mar 7 – Apr 21 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shamrock Rovers 1523 66 -24 3 8.6 -5.6
Derry City 1498 63 +16 13 8.2 +4.8
Shelbourne 1494 59 +21 13 7.5 +5.5
Bohemian 1450 54 -5 4 6.1 -2.1
St Patrick's Athletic 1496 52 -3 6 7.7 -1.7
Drogheda United 1399 51 -22 5 7.3 -2.3
Sligo Rovers 1365 41 +7 7 4.8 +2.2
Galway United 1401 39 +11 8 6.7 +1.3
Waterford 1338 39 +7 5 4.9 +0.1
Cork City 1330 24 -15 1 4.9 -3.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CC DC DU GU SR SHE SR SPA WAT
Bohemian —
3-0-1
5.82
1-1-2
4.85
1-0-3
5.67
2-0-2
5.33
3-0-1
4.08
1-1-2
4.66
2-2-0
6.74
1-2-1
4.39
2-0-2
6.50
Cork City
1-0-3
5.02
 —
0-1-3
4.00
0-2-2
4.90
1-1-2
4.78
0-2-2
3.64
0-2-2
4.07
0-3-1
5.84
0-1-3
3.88
2-0-2
5.91
Derry City
2-1-1
5.96
3-1-0
6.87
 —
1-2-1
6.23
2-2-0
5.75
1-1-2
4.76
2-1-1
5.32
3-0-1
7.21
2-1-1
5.01
2-0-2
7.31
Drogheda United
3-0-1
5.13
2-2-0
5.93
1-2-1
4.58
 —
1-2-1
5.04
0-0-4
4.16
2-2-0
4.54
2-2-0
6.45
0-3-1
4.23
1-2-1
6.52
Galway United
2-0-2
5.47
2-1-1
6.04
0-2-2
5.06
1-2-1
5.75
 —
0-2-2
4.13
0-3-1
4.85
1-0-3
6.91
2-1-1
4.52
1-1-2
6.58
Shamrock Rovers
1-0-3
6.78
2-2-0
7.29
2-1-1
6.04
4-0-0
6.71
2-2-0
6.76
 —
1-2-1
5.91
1-1-2
7.75
2-1-1
5.36
4-0-0
7.79
Shelbourne
2-1-1
6.16
2-2-0
6.79
1-1-2
5.47
0-2-2
6.29
1-3-0
5.97
1-2-1
4.91
 —
4-0-0
7.21
2-2-0
4.97
2-1-1
7.15
Sligo Rovers
0-2-2
4.11
1-3-0
4.99
1-0-3
3.69
0-2-2
4.38
3-0-1
3.95
2-1-1
3.24
0-0-4
3.70
 —
1-0-3
3.44
3-0-1
5.11
St Patrick's Athletic
1-2-1
6.44
3-1-0
7.02
1-1-2
5.79
1-3-0
6.63
1-1-2
6.32
1-1-2
5.43
0-2-2
5.84
3-0-1
7.51
 —
2-2-0
7.40
Waterford
2-0-2
4.37
2-0-2
4.90
2-0-2
3.60
1-2-1
4.31
2-1-1
4.26
0-0-4
3.20
1-1-2
3.77
1-0-3
5.69
0-2-2
3.55
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +16.2
Allowed 0.72 -10.2
Differential 0.93 +7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%10.83%5.00%2.50%0.83%—27.50%
110.83%13.89%10.28%1.67%0.83%—37.50%
25.00%10.28%6.67%2.22%0.56%0.28%25.00%
32.50%1.67%2.22%—0.56%—6.94%
40.83%0.83%0.56%0.56%——2.78%
5+——0.28%———0.28%
Total27.50%37.50%25.00%6.94%2.78%0.28%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.21 +0.00
SD 1.05 1.05 1.44
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
113.89%5.56%11.11%———30.56%
25.56%8.33%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
38.33%—2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total36.11%30.56%25.00%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.08 +0.25
SD 1.22 1.05 1.54
CV 0.91 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
12.78%25.00%16.67%2.78%5.56%—52.78%
22.78%5.56%2.78%8.33%——19.44%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%13.89%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.69 -0.78
SD 0.69 1.12 1.27
CV 0.75 0.66 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%8.33%———16.67%
119.44%16.67%8.33%5.56%——50.00%
22.78%13.89%2.78%———19.44%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total33.33%33.33%25.00%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.08 +0.36
SD 1.34 0.97 1.51
CV 0.93 0.89 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%2.78%2.78%5.56%——25.00%
119.44%19.44%11.11%—2.78%—52.78%
22.78%2.78%8.33%———13.89%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%25.00%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 0.86 1.07 1.33
CV 0.81 1.01 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%2.78%2.78%——33.33%
12.78%22.22%8.33%———33.33%
25.56%13.89%5.56%2.78%2.78%—30.56%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.89%61.11%16.67%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.22 -0.19
SD 0.88 0.87 1.14
CV 0.85 0.71 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%2.78%———19.44%
111.11%8.33%8.33%———27.78%
28.33%19.44%8.33%2.78%——38.89%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%5.56%————8.33%
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%19.44%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.92 +0.64
SD 1.13 0.81 1.38
CV 0.73 0.88 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%2.78%———22.22%
113.89%16.67%5.56%———36.11%
22.78%11.11%13.89%———27.78%
3—8.33%5.56%———13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%47.22%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.03 +0.31
SD 0.99 0.74 0.98
CV 0.74 0.72 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%5.56%8.33%——30.56%
111.11%13.89%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
22.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%—27.78%
3——2.78%—2.78%—5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%38.89%19.44%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.50 -0.33
SD 1.03 1.16 1.49
CV 0.88 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%13.89%——2.78%—38.89%
18.33%5.56%8.33%2.78%——25.00%
211.11%2.78%8.33%———22.22%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
42.78%——2.78%——5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%19.44%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.89 +0.28
SD 1.21 1.09 1.52
CV 1.03 1.23 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%11.11%11.11%2.78%2.78%—30.56%
15.56%5.56%19.44%2.78%——33.33%
25.56%13.89%8.33%——2.78%30.56%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total13.89%30.56%44.44%5.56%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.67 -0.53
SD 0.99 1.29 1.61
CV 0.87 0.77 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shamrock Rovers 1523 66 61.39 +4.61 78.0% 43 49 57 61 65 73 78
Derry City 1498 63 54.19 +8.81 92.0% 38 43 49 54 60 65 72
St Patrick's Athletic 1496 52 58.90 -6.90 25.0% 44 46 52 59 65 70 79
Shelbourne 1494 59 55.69 +3.31 68.0% 41 44 51 55 61 66 71
Bohemian 1450 54 48.10 +5.90 84.0% 25 34 44 49 52 59 70
Galway United 1401 39 48.17 -9.17 11.0% 32 36 43 47 53 61 65
Drogheda United 1399 51 45.75 +5.25 75.0% 25 31 40 47 51 57 62
Sligo Rovers 1365 41 38.10 +2.90 68.0% 21 26 34 38 43 48 53
Waterford 1338 39 36.85 +2.15 59.0% 21 26 31 37 42 47 56
Cork City 1330 24 42.01 -18.01 0.0% 28 30 37 41 46 55 67

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
Clear Edge
42.78%28.89%28.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
187 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Shamrock Rovers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.08/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.8 * Some Luck: 5.8 to 8.7 * Lucky: 8.7 to 11.6 * Wild Swing: 11.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.21 * Close: 1.21 to 1.81 * Off: 1.81 to 2.41 * Way Off: 2.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.01 points
Some Luck
07.2518
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.514
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.00%
Derry City
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Cork City
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.05
1.68
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
77%
Very Frequent
0%70%100%
Blowouts
Expected 8%
9%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.19
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.55
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.052
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shamrock Rovers41.00%25.00%14.00%10.00%3.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
Derry City8.00%20.00%23.00%13.00%10.00%14.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%—
Shelbourne17.00%18.00%17.00%20.00%14.00%7.00%6.00%1.00%——
Bohemian2.00%4.00%8.00%14.00%26.00%13.00%16.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%
St Patrick's Athletic29.00%22.00%21.00%15.00%5.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%——
Drogheda United—3.00%7.00%15.00%12.00%17.00%14.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%
Sligo Rovers————6.00%8.00%6.00%30.00%21.00%29.00%
Galway United3.00%5.00%7.00%10.00%20.00%12.00%24.00%10.00%8.00%1.00%
Waterford————1.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%26.00%42.00%
Cork City—3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%14.00%14.00%19.00%29.00%12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
Shamrock Rovers 100% — —
Shelbourne 100% — —
St Patrick's Athletic 100% — —
Derry City 98.00% 2.00% —
Galway United 91.00% 8.00% 1.00%
Bohemian 90.00% 6.00% 4.00%
Drogheda United 80.00% 8.00% 12.00%
Cork City 59.00% 29.00% 12.00%
Sligo Rovers 50.00% 21.00% 29.00%
Waterford 32.00% 26.00% 42.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-02-14 Derry City W 3-148.0 1467 1467 41.78% 30.09% 28.13%+0.27 +7.8 3
2025-02-14 @ Shelbourne L 1-348.0 1467 1467 28.13% 30.09% 41.78%-0.27 -7.8 0
2025-02-14 Drogheda United D 0-053.9 1492 1387 55.82% 25.80% 18.37%+0.83 -1.4 1
2025-02-14 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-053.9 1387 1492 18.37% 25.80% 55.82%-0.83 +1.4 1
2025-02-14 Galway United D 2-263.5 1425 1441 39.61% 30.38% 30.01%+0.18 -0.2 1
2025-02-14 @ Cork City D 2-263.5 1441 1425 30.01% 30.38% 39.61%-0.18 +0.2 1
2025-02-15 Waterford L 2-355.4 1356 1380 38.52% 30.48% 31.00%+0.14 -5.4 0
2025-02-15 @ Sligo Rovers W 3-255.4 1380 1356 31.00% 30.48% 38.52%-0.14 +5.4 3
2025-02-16 Shamrock Rovers W 1-047.1 1406 1472 32.53% 30.59% 36.89%-0.08 +5.8 3
2025-02-16 @ Bohemian L 0-147.1 1472 1406 36.89% 30.59% 32.53%+0.08 -5.8 0
2025-02-21 Bohemian W 1-042.2 1459 1412 48.34% 28.59% 23.06%+0.52 +4.1 3
2025-02-21 @ Derry City L 0-142.2 1412 1459 23.06% 28.59% 48.34%-0.52 -4.1 3
2025-02-21 Shelbourne L 0-144.3 1385 1474 29.49% 30.31% 40.20%-0.21 -5.0 3
2025-02-21 @ Waterford W 1-044.3 1474 1385 40.20% 30.31% 29.49%+0.21 +5.0 6
2025-02-21 Sligo Rovers W 3-033.8 1388 1351 47.03% 28.97% 24.00%+0.47 +11.5 4
2025-02-21 @ Drogheda United L 0-333.8 1351 1388 24.00% 28.97% 47.03%-0.47 -11.5 0
2025-02-21 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-154.4 1441 1491 34.88% 30.64% 34.48%+0.01 +5.2 4
2025-02-21 @ Galway United L 1-254.4 1491 1441 34.48% 30.64% 34.88%-0.01 -5.2 1
2025-02-28 Bohemian W 2-148.5 1425 1408 44.22% 29.65% 26.14%+0.36 +4.3 4
2025-02-28 @ Cork City L 1-248.5 1408 1425 26.14% 29.65% 44.22%-0.36 -4.3 3
2025-02-28 Galway United D 1-156.7 1400 1447 35.20% 30.64% 34.16%+0.02 -0.0 5
2025-02-28 @ Drogheda United D 1-156.7 1447 1400 34.16% 30.64% 35.20%-0.02 +0.0 5
2025-02-28 Shamrock Rovers D 1-160.2 1479 1466 43.68% 29.75% 26.56%+0.34 -0.5 7
2025-02-28 @ Shelbourne D 1-160.2 1466 1479 26.56% 29.75% 43.68%-0.34 +0.5 1
2025-02-28 Sligo Rovers W 4-350.5 1485 1339 60.85% 23.39% 15.76%+1.05 +2.4 4
2025-02-28 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 3-450.5 1339 1485 15.76% 23.39% 60.85%-1.05 -2.4 0
2025-02-28 Waterford L 1-256.0 1464 1380 53.05% 26.96% 19.98%+0.71 -7.2 3
2025-02-28 @ Derry City W 2-156.0 1380 1464 19.98% 26.96% 53.05%-0.71 +7.2 6
2025-03-03 Cork City W 2-150.6 1387 1429 35.94% 30.62% 33.43%+0.05 +5.1 9
2025-03-03 @ Waterford L 1-250.6 1429 1387 33.43% 30.62% 35.94%-0.05 -5.1 4
2025-03-03 Derry City W 2-040.9 1488 1456 46.20% 29.19% 24.61%+0.44 +8.1 7
2025-03-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-240.9 1456 1488 24.61% 29.19% 46.20%-0.44 -8.1 3
2025-03-03 Drogheda United L 0-146.6 1404 1400 42.44% 29.98% 27.57%+0.29 -6.5 3
2025-03-03 @ Bohemian W 1-046.6 1400 1404 27.57% 29.98% 42.44%-0.29 +6.5 8
2025-03-03 Shamrock Rovers W 2-153.6 1337 1467 24.86% 29.27% 45.87%-0.42 +6.5 3
2025-03-03 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-253.6 1467 1337 45.87% 29.27% 24.86%+0.42 -6.5 1
2025-03-03 Shelbourne D 1-159.2 1447 1479 37.32% 30.57% 32.12%+0.10 -0.2 6
2025-03-03 @ Galway United D 1-159.2 1479 1447 32.12% 30.57% 37.32%-0.10 +0.1 8
2025-03-07 Bohemian L 0-340.2 1393 1397 41.21% 30.18% 28.62%+0.24 -17.3 9
2025-03-07 @ Waterford W 3-040.2 1397 1393 28.62% 30.18% 41.21%-0.24 +17.3 6
2025-03-07 Drogheda United L 0-150.8 1479 1406 51.71% 27.47% 20.82%+0.66 -7.5 8
2025-03-07 @ Shelbourne W 1-050.8 1406 1479 20.82% 27.47% 51.71%-0.66 +7.5 11
2025-03-07 Galway United D 1-158.3 1448 1447 42.10% 30.04% 27.86%+0.28 -0.4 4
2025-03-07 @ Derry City D 1-158.3 1447 1448 27.86% 30.04% 42.10%-0.28 +0.4 7
2025-03-07 Sligo Rovers D 1-156.0 1424 1343 52.74% 27.08% 20.18%+0.70 -1.0 5
2025-03-07 @ Cork City D 1-156.0 1343 1424 20.18% 27.08% 52.74%-0.70 +1.0 4
2025-03-07 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-048.5 1460 1496 36.86% 30.59% 32.55%+0.08 +5.3 4
2025-03-07 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-148.5 1496 1460 32.55% 30.59% 36.86%-0.08 -5.3 7
2025-03-14 Bohemian W 3-036.4 1490 1415 52.09% 27.33% 20.58%+0.67 +10.0 10
2025-03-14 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-336.4 1415 1490 20.58% 27.33% 52.09%-0.67 -10.0 6
2025-03-14 Cork City D 1-158.8 1472 1423 48.50% 28.55% 22.95%+0.53 -0.8 9
2025-03-14 @ Shelbourne D 1-158.8 1423 1472 22.95% 28.55% 48.50%-0.53 +0.8 6
2025-03-14 Shamrock Rovers L 1-252.6 1414 1466 34.46% 30.64% 34.90%-0.01 -5.2 11
2025-03-14 @ Drogheda United W 2-152.6 1466 1414 34.90% 30.64% 34.46%+0.01 +5.2 7
2025-03-14 Waterford W 1-039.8 1447 1375 51.56% 27.53% 20.91%+0.65 +3.7 10
2025-03-14 @ Galway United L 0-139.8 1375 1447 20.91% 27.53% 51.56%-0.65 -3.7 9
2025-03-15 Derry City L 0-142.0 1344 1448 27.78% 30.02% 42.19%-0.28 -4.8 4
2025-03-15 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-042.0 1448 1344 42.19% 30.02% 27.78%+0.28 +4.8 7
2025-03-28 Derry City D 0-054.2 1471 1453 44.44% 29.60% 25.96%+0.37 -0.6 8
2025-03-28 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-054.2 1453 1471 25.96% 29.60% 44.44%-0.37 +0.6 8
2025-03-28 Drogheda United D 1-156.6 1424 1408 44.01% 29.69% 26.30%+0.35 -0.5 7
2025-03-28 @ Cork City D 1-156.6 1408 1424 26.30% 29.69% 44.01%-0.35 +0.5 12
2025-03-28 Galway United L 0-241.7 1405 1451 35.33% 30.64% 34.03%+0.02 -10.7 6
2025-03-28 @ Bohemian W 2-041.7 1451 1405 34.03% 30.64% 35.33%-0.02 +10.7 13
2025-03-28 Shelbourne L 1-247.4 1340 1471 24.75% 29.23% 46.02%-0.43 -4.1 4
2025-03-28 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-147.4 1471 1340 46.02% 29.23% 24.75%+0.43 +4.1 12
2025-03-28 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-249.1 1372 1500 24.99% 29.31% 45.71%-0.42 -4.1 9
2025-03-28 @ Waterford W 2-149.1 1500 1372 45.71% 29.31% 24.99%+0.42 +4.1 13
2025-04-04 Cork City W 2-149.2 1453 1423 45.99% 29.24% 24.77%+0.43 +4.1 11
2025-04-04 @ Derry City L 1-249.2 1423 1453 24.77% 29.24% 45.99%-0.43 -4.1 7
2025-04-04 Shamrock Rovers L 0-149.9 1461 1470 40.60% 30.26% 29.14%+0.22 -6.3 13
2025-04-04 @ Galway United W 1-049.9 1470 1461 29.14% 30.26% 40.60%-0.22 +6.3 11
2025-04-04 Shelbourne D 0-056.4 1505 1475 45.98% 29.24% 24.78%+0.43 -0.7 14
2025-04-04 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-056.4 1475 1505 24.78% 29.24% 45.98%-0.43 +0.7 13
2025-04-04 Sligo Rovers W 4-243.8 1394 1336 49.83% 28.13% 22.04%+0.58 +5.7 9
2025-04-04 @ Bohemian L 2-443.8 1336 1394 22.04% 28.13% 49.83%-0.58 -5.7 4
2025-04-04 Waterford W 2-035.7 1409 1368 47.57% 28.82% 23.61%+0.49 +7.8 15
2025-04-04 @ Drogheda United L 0-235.7 1368 1409 23.61% 28.82% 47.57%-0.49 -7.8 9
2025-04-11 Bohemian W 1-041.1 1476 1400 52.10% 27.33% 20.57%+0.67 +3.7 16
2025-04-11 @ Shelbourne L 0-141.1 1400 1476 20.57% 27.33% 52.10%-0.67 -3.6 9
2025-04-11 Drogheda United L 1-351.4 1457 1417 47.42% 28.86% 23.72%+0.49 -11.5 11
2025-04-11 @ Derry City W 3-151.4 1417 1457 23.72% 28.86% 47.42%-0.49 +11.5 18
2025-04-11 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-242.2 1419 1504 30.07% 30.38% 39.54%-0.18 -9.5 7
2025-04-11 @ Cork City W 2-042.2 1504 1419 39.54% 30.38% 30.07%+0.18 +9.5 17
2025-04-11 Waterford W 2-034.2 1477 1360 57.31% 25.13% 17.56%+0.89 +5.8 14
2025-04-11 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-234.2 1360 1477 17.56% 25.13% 57.31%-0.89 -5.8 9
2025-04-12 Galway United L 1-247.1 1330 1455 25.36% 29.42% 45.22%-0.40 -4.2 4
2025-04-12 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-147.1 1455 1330 45.22% 29.42% 25.36%+0.40 +4.2 16
2025-04-14 Cork City W 4-141.1 1482 1410 51.70% 27.48% 20.82%+0.66 +8.5 17
2025-04-14 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-441.1 1410 1482 20.82% 27.48% 51.70%-0.66 -8.5 7
2025-04-18 Cork City W 1-042.4 1396 1401 41.15% 30.18% 28.67%+0.24 +4.9 12
2025-04-18 @ Bohemian L 0-142.4 1401 1396 28.67% 30.18% 41.15%-0.24 -4.9 7
2025-04-18 Derry City L 2-360.9 1459 1446 43.75% 29.74% 26.51%+0.34 -5.9 16
2025-04-18 @ Galway United W 3-260.9 1446 1459 26.51% 29.74% 43.75%-0.34 +5.9 14
2025-04-18 Shamrock Rovers D 2-268.5 1513 1491 44.96% 29.48% 25.55%+0.39 -0.4 18
2025-04-18 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-268.5 1491 1513 25.55% 29.48% 44.96%-0.39 +0.5 18
2025-04-18 Shelbourne D 2-264.7 1428 1479 34.63% 30.64% 34.73%+0.00 +0.0 19
2025-04-18 @ Drogheda United D 2-264.7 1479 1428 34.73% 30.64% 34.63%+0.00 +0.0 17
2025-04-18 Sligo Rovers L 0-440.3 1354 1326 45.76% 29.30% 24.94%+0.42 -24.5 9
2025-04-18 @ Waterford W 4-040.3 1326 1354 24.94% 29.30% 45.76%-0.42 +24.5 7
2025-04-21 Bohemian L 2-362.7 1491 1401 53.99% 26.59% 19.43%+0.75 -6.9 18
2025-04-21 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-262.7 1401 1491 19.43% 26.59% 53.99%-0.75 +6.9 15
2025-04-21 Galway United D 2-265.9 1479 1453 45.44% 29.37% 25.19%+0.41 -0.5 18
2025-04-21 @ Shelbourne D 2-265.9 1453 1479 25.19% 29.37% 45.44%-0.41 +0.5 17
2025-04-21 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-054.6 1428 1513 30.07% 30.38% 39.55%-0.18 +0.3 20
2025-04-21 @ Drogheda United D 0-054.6 1513 1428 39.55% 30.38% 30.07%+0.18 -0.3 19
2025-04-21 Waterford W 2-144.3 1396 1329 50.94% 27.75% 21.31%+0.63 +3.6 10
2025-04-21 @ Cork City L 1-244.3 1329 1396 21.31% 27.75% 50.94%-0.63 -3.6 9
2025-04-22 Sligo Rovers W 3-032.5 1452 1350 55.38% 26.00% 18.62%+0.81 +9.0 17
2025-04-22 @ Derry City L 0-332.5 1350 1452 18.62% 26.00% 55.38%-0.81 -9.0 7
2025-04-25 Derry City W 2-153.4 1326 1461 24.38% 29.10% 46.52%-0.45 +6.5 12
2025-04-25 @ Waterford L 1-253.4 1461 1326 46.52% 29.10% 24.38%+0.45 -6.5 17
2025-04-25 Drogheda United W 2-149.6 1454 1429 45.36% 29.39% 25.25%+0.40 +4.1 20
2025-04-25 @ Galway United L 1-249.6 1429 1454 25.25% 29.39% 45.36%-0.40 -4.1 20
2025-04-25 Shelbourne D 2-266.8 1485 1479 42.68% 29.94% 27.38%+0.30 -0.3 19
2025-04-25 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-266.8 1479 1485 27.38% 29.94% 42.68%-0.30 +0.3 19
2025-04-25 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-156.1 1408 1513 27.63% 29.99% 42.38%-0.29 +6.1 18
2025-04-25 @ Bohemian L 1-256.1 1513 1408 42.38% 29.99% 27.63%+0.29 -6.1 19
2025-04-26 Cork City D 1-154.4 1341 1400 33.51% 30.63% 35.86%-0.04 +0.1 8
2025-04-26 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-154.4 1400 1341 35.86% 30.63% 33.51%+0.04 -0.1 11
2025-05-02 Drogheda United D 2-261.0 1341 1424 30.24% 30.40% 39.35%-0.17 +0.2 9
2025-05-02 @ Sligo Rovers D 2-261.0 1424 1341 39.35% 30.40% 30.24%+0.17 -0.2 21
2025-05-02 Galway United W 2-041.0 1506 1458 48.51% 28.55% 22.95%+0.53 +7.6 22
2025-05-02 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-241.0 1458 1506 22.95% 28.55% 48.51%-0.53 -7.6 20
2025-05-02 Shamrock Rovers D 1-157.9 1400 1484 30.10% 30.39% 39.51%-0.18 +0.3 12
2025-05-02 @ Cork City D 1-157.9 1484 1400 39.51% 30.39% 30.10%+0.18 -0.3 20
2025-05-02 Shelbourne W 2-042.9 1454 1479 38.35% 30.49% 31.15%+0.14 +9.8 20
2025-05-02 @ Derry City L 0-242.9 1479 1454 31.15% 30.49% 38.35%-0.14 -9.8 19
2025-05-02 Waterford L 1-253.9 1414 1332 52.84% 27.04% 20.11%+0.71 -7.2 18
2025-05-02 @ Bohemian W 2-153.9 1332 1414 20.11% 27.04% 52.84%-0.71 +7.2 15
2025-05-05 Bohemian L 1-255.4 1450 1407 47.85% 28.74% 23.41%+0.50 -6.7 20
2025-05-05 @ Galway United W 2-155.4 1407 1450 23.41% 28.74% 47.85%-0.50 +6.7 21
2025-05-05 Cork City W 3-253.0 1424 1400 45.21% 29.43% 25.36%+0.40 +3.9 24
2025-05-05 @ Drogheda United L 2-353.0 1400 1424 25.36% 29.43% 45.21%-0.40 -3.9 12
2025-05-05 Sligo Rovers W 2-033.0 1484 1341 60.42% 23.61% 15.97%+1.03 +5.2 23
2025-05-05 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-233.0 1341 1484 15.97% 23.61% 60.42%-1.03 -5.2 9
2025-05-05 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-049.9 1464 1514 34.73% 30.64% 34.63%+0.00 +5.6 23
2025-05-05 @ Derry City L 0-149.9 1514 1464 34.63% 30.64% 34.73%+0.00 -5.6 22
2025-05-05 Waterford L 0-150.0 1469 1340 58.88% 24.38% 16.74%+0.96 -8.3 19
2025-05-05 @ Shelbourne W 1-050.0 1340 1469 16.74% 24.38% 58.88%-0.96 +8.3 18
2025-05-09 Derry City L 1-251.3 1396 1470 31.53% 30.52% 37.94%-0.12 -4.9 12
2025-05-09 @ Cork City W 2-151.3 1470 1396 37.94% 30.52% 31.53%+0.12 +4.9 26
2025-05-09 Drogheda United W 3-037.3 1489 1428 50.15% 28.02% 21.83%+0.60 +10.6 26
2025-05-09 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-337.3 1428 1489 21.83% 28.02% 50.15%-0.60 -10.6 24
2025-05-09 Galway United W 1-046.0 1348 1444 28.67% 30.19% 41.14%-0.24 +6.3 21
2025-05-09 @ Waterford L 0-146.0 1444 1348 41.14% 30.19% 28.67%+0.24 -6.3 20
2025-05-09 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-155.6 1461 1509 35.12% 30.64% 34.24%+0.02 +5.2 22
2025-05-09 @ Shelbourne L 1-255.6 1509 1461 34.24% 30.64% 35.12%-0.02 -5.2 22
2025-05-10 Bohemian L 0-142.2 1336 1413 31.02% 30.48% 38.50%-0.14 -5.2 9
2025-05-10 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-042.2 1413 1336 38.50% 30.48% 31.02%+0.14 +5.2 24
2025-05-16 Cork City W 3-251.5 1503 1391 56.70% 25.41% 17.89%+0.87 +2.8 25
2025-05-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 2-351.5 1391 1503 17.89% 25.41% 56.70%-0.87 -2.8 12
2025-05-16 Derry City D 1-158.1 1418 1474 33.79% 30.63% 35.58%-0.03 +0.0 25
2025-05-16 @ Drogheda United D 1-158.1 1474 1418 35.58% 30.63% 33.79%+0.03 -0.1 27
2025-05-16 Shamrock Rovers L 1-343.6 1354 1500 23.33% 28.71% 47.96%-0.51 -6.7 21
2025-05-16 @ Waterford W 3-143.6 1500 1354 47.96% 28.71% 23.33%+0.51 +6.7 29
2025-05-16 Shelbourne W 1-046.5 1419 1466 35.09% 30.64% 34.27%+0.02 +5.5 27
2025-05-16 @ Bohemian L 0-146.5 1466 1419 34.27% 30.64% 35.09%-0.02 -5.5 22
2025-05-16 Sligo Rovers L 0-148.7 1437 1331 55.99% 25.73% 18.28%+0.84 -8.0 20
2025-05-16 @ Galway United W 1-048.7 1331 1437 18.28% 25.73% 55.99%-0.84 +8.0 12
2025-05-19 Drogheda United D 0-053.0 1461 1418 47.77% 28.76% 23.46%+0.50 -0.9 23
2025-05-19 @ Shelbourne D 0-053.0 1418 1461 23.46% 28.76% 47.77%-0.50 +0.8 26
2025-05-19 St Patrick's Athletic W 4-044.0 1506 1506 41.91% 30.07% 28.02%+0.27 +17.1 32
2025-05-19 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-444.0 1506 1506 28.02% 30.07% 41.91%-0.27 -17.1 25
2025-05-23 Bohemian W 1-043.5 1419 1424 41.08% 30.19% 28.72%+0.24 +4.9 29
2025-05-23 @ Drogheda United L 0-143.5 1424 1419 28.72% 30.19% 41.08%-0.24 -4.9 27
2025-05-23 Cork City W 2-147.1 1429 1388 47.50% 28.84% 23.66%+0.49 +3.9 23
2025-05-23 @ Galway United L 1-247.1 1388 1429 23.66% 28.84% 47.50%-0.49 -3.9 12
2025-05-23 Shamrock Rovers L 1-256.9 1474 1523 34.89% 30.64% 34.47%+0.01 -5.3 27
2025-05-23 @ Derry City W 2-156.9 1523 1474 34.47% 30.64% 34.89%-0.01 +5.3 35
2025-05-23 Sligo Rovers W 3-248.6 1460 1339 57.79% 24.90% 17.30%+0.91 +2.7 26
2025-05-23 @ Shelbourne L 2-348.6 1339 1460 17.30% 24.90% 57.79%-0.91 -2.7 12
2025-05-23 Waterford D 2-264.6 1489 1347 60.31% 23.67% 16.02%+1.03 -1.1 26
2025-05-23 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-264.6 1347 1489 16.02% 23.67% 60.31%-1.03 +1.1 22
2025-05-30 Derry City W 1-046.7 1419 1469 34.78% 30.64% 34.57%+0.00 +5.6 30
2025-05-30 @ Bohemian L 0-146.7 1469 1419 34.57% 30.64% 34.78%+0.00 -5.6 27
2025-05-30 Drogheda United D 2-261.1 1349 1423 31.32% 30.51% 38.17%-0.13 +0.2 23
2025-05-30 @ Waterford D 2-261.1 1423 1349 38.17% 30.51% 31.32%+0.13 -0.2 30
2025-05-30 Galway United D 0-056.6 1529 1433 54.61% 26.33% 19.06%+0.78 -1.3 36
2025-05-30 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-056.6 1433 1529 19.06% 26.33% 54.61%-0.78 +1.3 24
2025-05-30 Shelbourne D 1-156.8 1385 1463 30.91% 30.47% 38.62%-0.15 +0.2 13
2025-05-30 @ Cork City D 1-156.8 1463 1385 38.62% 30.47% 30.91%+0.15 -0.2 27
2025-05-30 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-140.7 1336 1488 22.76% 28.46% 48.78%-0.54 -4.0 12
2025-05-30 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-040.7 1488 1336 48.78% 28.46% 22.76%+0.54 +4.0 29
2025-06-13 Bohemian L 0-240.8 1385 1425 36.18% 30.62% 33.20%+0.06 -10.9 13
2025-06-13 @ Cork City W 2-040.8 1425 1385 33.20% 30.62% 36.18%-0.06 +10.9 33
2025-06-13 Drogheda United D 0-054.5 1492 1423 51.17% 27.67% 21.16%+0.64 -1.1 30
2025-06-13 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-054.5 1423 1492 21.16% 27.67% 51.17%-0.64 +1.1 31
2025-06-13 Galway United D 1-158.7 1464 1435 45.86% 29.27% 24.87%+0.42 -0.7 28
2025-06-13 @ Derry City D 1-158.7 1435 1464 24.87% 29.27% 45.86%-0.42 +0.7 25
2025-06-13 Shamrock Rovers L 1-255.9 1462 1527 32.63% 30.59% 36.77%-0.08 -5.0 27
2025-06-13 @ Shelbourne W 2-155.9 1527 1462 36.77% 30.59% 32.63%+0.08 +5.0 39
2025-06-14 Waterford W 1-040.9 1332 1349 39.56% 30.38% 30.06%+0.18 +5.0 15
2025-06-14 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-140.9 1349 1332 30.06% 30.38% 39.56%-0.18 -5.0 23
2025-06-16 Shamrock Rovers L 1-252.8 1424 1533 27.23% 29.91% 42.87%-0.31 -4.4 31
2025-06-16 @ Drogheda United W 2-152.8 1533 1424 42.87% 29.91% 27.23%+0.31 +4.4 42
2025-06-16 Shelbourne L 0-151.9 1491 1457 46.50% 29.11% 24.39%+0.45 -6.9 30
2025-06-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 1-051.9 1457 1491 24.39% 29.11% 46.50%-0.45 +6.9 30
2025-06-20 Bohemian W 2-151.8 1344 1436 29.14% 30.26% 40.61%-0.22 +5.9 26
2025-06-20 @ Waterford L 1-251.8 1436 1344 40.61% 30.26% 29.14%+0.22 -5.9 33
2025-06-20 Cork City W 4-138.3 1537 1374 62.86% 22.33% 14.81%+1.14 +5.8 45
2025-06-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-438.3 1374 1537 14.81% 22.33% 62.86%-1.14 -5.9 13
2025-06-20 Derry City L 0-150.1 1464 1463 42.06% 30.05% 27.89%+0.28 -6.4 30
2025-06-20 @ Shelbourne W 1-050.1 1463 1464 27.89% 30.05% 42.06%-0.28 +6.4 31
2025-06-20 Sligo Rovers W 1-038.0 1420 1337 52.97% 26.99% 20.03%+0.71 +3.5 34
2025-06-20 @ Drogheda United L 0-138.0 1337 1420 20.03% 26.99% 52.97%-0.71 -3.5 15
2025-06-20 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-149.5 1435 1484 34.95% 30.64% 34.41%+0.01 +9.1 28
2025-06-20 @ Galway United L 1-349.5 1484 1435 34.41% 30.64% 34.95%-0.01 -9.1 30
2025-06-23 Derry City L 0-150.9 1475 1469 42.65% 29.95% 27.40%+0.30 -6.5 30
2025-06-23 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 1-050.9 1469 1475 27.40% 29.95% 42.65%-0.30 +6.5 34
2025-06-23 Drogheda United D 1-155.4 1368 1423 33.98% 30.64% 35.38%-0.03 +0.0 14
2025-06-23 @ Cork City D 1-155.4 1423 1368 35.38% 30.64% 33.98%+0.03 -0.0 35
2025-06-23 Galway United W 2-152.4 1334 1444 26.96% 29.85% 43.19%-0.32 +6.2 18
2025-06-23 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-252.4 1444 1334 43.19% 29.85% 26.96%+0.32 -6.2 28
2025-06-23 Shamrock Rovers W 2-047.8 1430 1543 26.69% 29.78% 43.53%-0.33 +12.4 36
2025-06-23 @ Bohemian L 0-247.8 1543 1430 43.53% 29.78% 26.69%+0.33 -12.4 45
2025-06-23 Shelbourne D 2-262.0 1350 1458 27.22% 29.91% 42.87%-0.31 +0.4 27
2025-06-23 @ Waterford D 2-262.0 1458 1350 42.87% 29.91% 27.22%+0.31 -0.3 31
2025-06-27 Drogheda United W 3-037.1 1476 1423 49.02% 28.39% 22.59%+0.55 +10.9 37
2025-06-27 @ Derry City L 0-337.1 1423 1476 22.59% 28.39% 49.02%-0.55 -10.9 35
2025-06-27 Shelbourne D 1-158.3 1438 1457 39.15% 30.42% 30.42%+0.17 -0.3 29
2025-06-27 @ Galway United D 1-158.3 1457 1438 30.42% 30.42% 39.15%-0.17 +0.3 32
2025-06-27 Sligo Rovers D 1-156.6 1442 1340 55.48% 25.96% 18.57%+0.82 -1.2 37
2025-06-27 @ Bohemian D 1-156.6 1340 1442 18.57% 25.96% 55.48%-0.82 +1.2 19
2025-06-27 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-051.4 1368 1468 28.15% 30.09% 41.76%-0.27 +0.5 15
2025-06-27 @ Cork City D 0-051.4 1468 1368 41.76% 30.09% 28.15%+0.27 -0.5 31
2025-06-27 Waterford W 1-037.5 1530 1350 64.87% 21.23% 13.89%+1.23 +2.3 48
2025-06-27 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-137.5 1350 1530 13.89% 21.23% 64.87%-1.23 -2.3 27
2025-07-04 Bohemian D 0-053.8 1468 1441 45.59% 29.34% 25.07%+0.41 -0.7 32
2025-07-04 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-053.8 1441 1468 25.07% 29.34% 45.59%-0.41 +0.7 38
2025-07-04 Cork City W 3-141.1 1458 1369 53.82% 26.66% 19.53%+0.75 +5.6 35
2025-07-04 @ Shelbourne L 1-341.1 1369 1458 19.53% 26.66% 53.82%-0.75 -5.6 15
2025-07-04 Galway United W 1-044.6 1413 1438 38.28% 30.50% 31.22%+0.13 +5.2 38
2025-07-04 @ Drogheda United L 0-144.6 1438 1413 31.22% 30.50% 38.28%-0.13 -5.2 29
2025-07-04 Waterford W 7-236.7 1487 1348 60.02% 23.82% 16.17%+1.01 +8.6 40
2025-07-04 @ Derry City L 2-736.7 1348 1487 16.17% 23.82% 60.02%-1.01 -8.6 27
2025-07-05 Shamrock Rovers D 2-264.8 1341 1533 19.43% 26.59% 53.98%-0.75 +0.8 20
2025-07-05 @ Sligo Rovers D 2-264.8 1533 1341 53.98% 26.59% 19.43%+0.75 -0.8 49
2025-07-11 Cork City W 2-037.2 1339 1363 38.49% 30.48% 31.03%+0.14 +9.7 30
2025-07-11 @ Waterford L 0-237.2 1363 1339 31.03% 30.48% 38.49%-0.14 -9.7 15
2025-07-11 Galway United W 3-038.1 1442 1433 43.13% 29.86% 27.01%+0.32 +12.7 41
2025-07-11 @ Bohemian L 0-338.1 1433 1442 27.01% 29.86% 43.13%-0.32 -12.7 29
2025-07-12 Derry City W 2-044.6 1342 1495 22.61% 28.39% 49.00%-0.55 +13.6 23
2025-07-12 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-244.6 1495 1342 49.00% 28.39% 22.61%+0.55 -13.6 40
2025-07-25 Bohemian D 1-160.0 1482 1454 45.63% 29.33% 25.04%+0.42 -0.6 41
2025-07-25 @ Derry City D 1-160.0 1454 1482 25.04% 29.33% 45.63%-0.42 +0.6 42
2025-07-25 Sligo Rovers L 2-355.8 1353 1356 41.54% 30.13% 28.33%+0.26 -5.7 15
2025-07-25 @ Cork City W 3-255.8 1356 1353 28.33% 30.13% 41.54%-0.26 +5.7 26
2025-07-25 Waterford L 2-453.2 1420 1349 51.51% 27.54% 20.94%+0.65 -10.9 29
2025-07-25 @ Galway United W 4-253.2 1349 1420 20.94% 27.54% 51.51%-0.65 +10.9 33
2025-08-01 Drogheda United L 0-149.5 1455 1418 47.01% 28.97% 24.01%+0.47 -7.0 42
2025-08-01 @ Bohemian W 1-049.5 1418 1455 24.01% 28.97% 47.01%-0.47 +7.0 41
2025-08-01 Galway United W 1-044.0 1347 1409 33.12% 30.61% 36.27%-0.06 +5.8 18
2025-08-01 @ Cork City L 0-144.0 1409 1347 36.27% 30.61% 33.12%+0.06 -5.8 29
2025-08-02 Shelbourne L 0-238.5 1361 1463 27.93% 30.05% 42.02%-0.28 -9.0 26
2025-08-02 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-038.5 1463 1361 42.02% 30.05% 27.93%+0.28 +9.0 38
2025-08-03 Derry City W 2-042.7 1532 1481 48.82% 28.45% 22.73%+0.54 +7.6 52
2025-08-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-242.7 1481 1532 22.73% 28.45% 48.82%-0.54 -7.5 41
2025-08-03 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-238.3 1360 1467 27.30% 29.92% 42.78%-0.30 -8.8 33
2025-08-03 @ Waterford W 2-038.3 1467 1360 42.78% 29.92% 27.30%+0.30 +8.8 35
2025-08-08 Cork City D 0-052.7 1473 1353 57.72% 24.94% 17.34%+0.91 -1.5 42
2025-08-08 @ Derry City D 0-052.7 1353 1473 17.34% 24.94% 57.72%-0.91 +1.5 19
2025-08-08 Waterford D 0-050.8 1425 1351 51.85% 27.42% 20.73%+0.66 -1.1 42
2025-08-08 @ Drogheda United D 0-050.8 1351 1425 20.73% 27.42% 51.85%-0.66 +1.1 34
2025-08-09 Bohemian D 2-265.5 1472 1448 45.22% 29.42% 25.35%+0.40 -0.5 39
2025-08-09 @ Shelbourne D 2-265.5 1448 1472 25.35% 29.42% 45.22%-0.40 +0.5 43
2025-08-10 Shamrock Rovers D 0-055.1 1403 1539 24.25% 29.06% 46.69%-0.46 +0.8 30
2025-08-10 @ Galway United D 0-055.1 1539 1403 46.69% 29.06% 24.25%+0.46 -0.8 53
2025-08-10 Sligo Rovers W 3-032.3 1476 1352 58.15% 24.73% 17.12%+0.93 +8.2 38
2025-08-10 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-332.3 1352 1476 17.12% 24.73% 58.15%-0.93 -8.2 26
2025-08-22 Cork City W 3-032.8 1449 1355 54.41% 26.41% 19.18%+0.77 +9.3 46
2025-08-22 @ Bohemian L 0-332.8 1355 1449 19.18% 26.41% 54.41%-0.77 -9.3 19
2025-08-22 Derry City L 1-251.8 1404 1472 32.25% 30.57% 37.17%-0.09 -5.0 30
2025-08-22 @ Galway United W 2-151.8 1472 1404 37.17% 30.57% 32.25%+0.09 +5.0 45
2025-08-22 Sligo Rovers L 1-251.0 1352 1344 42.97% 29.89% 27.14%+0.31 -6.1 34
2025-08-22 @ Waterford W 2-151.0 1344 1352 27.14% 29.89% 42.97%-0.31 +6.2 29
2025-08-22 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-147.0 1424 1484 33.25% 30.62% 36.14%-0.05 -5.4 42
2025-08-22 @ Drogheda United W 1-047.0 1484 1424 36.14% 30.62% 33.25%+0.05 +5.4 41
2025-08-29 St Patrick's Athletic D 2-266.9 1477 1490 40.09% 30.32% 29.59%+0.20 -0.2 46
2025-08-29 @ Derry City D 2-266.9 1490 1477 29.59% 30.32% 40.09%-0.20 +0.2 42
2025-08-29 Waterford W 2-036.1 1345 1346 41.83% 30.08% 28.09%+0.27 +9.0 22
2025-08-29 @ Cork City L 0-236.1 1346 1345 28.09% 30.08% 41.83%-0.27 -9.0 34
2025-08-30 Bohemian D 0-050.8 1350 1458 27.29% 29.92% 42.79%-0.31 +0.5 30
2025-08-30 @ Sligo Rovers D 0-050.8 1458 1350 42.79% 29.92% 27.29%+0.31 -0.5 47
2025-08-31 Drogheda United W 2-148.4 1539 1418 57.75% 24.92% 17.33%+0.91 +2.9 56
2025-08-31 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-248.4 1418 1539 17.33% 24.92% 57.75%-0.91 -2.9 42
2025-09-07 Galway United W 1-041.1 1472 1399 51.71% 27.47% 20.82%+0.66 +3.7 42
2025-09-07 @ Shelbourne L 0-141.1 1399 1472 20.82% 27.47% 51.71%-0.66 -3.7 30
2025-09-12 Derry City L 3-462.9 1457 1477 39.13% 30.43% 30.45%+0.17 -5.3 47
2025-09-12 @ Bohemian W 4-362.9 1477 1457 30.45% 30.43% 39.13%-0.17 +5.3 49
2025-09-19 Drogheda United D 1-154.9 1351 1415 32.71% 30.60% 36.69%-0.07 +0.1 31
2025-09-19 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-154.9 1415 1351 36.69% 30.60% 32.71%+0.07 -0.1 43
2025-09-19 Galway United D 1-159.1 1490 1395 54.50% 26.38% 19.13%+0.77 -1.1 43
2025-09-19 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-159.1 1395 1490 19.13% 26.38% 54.50%-0.77 +1.1 31
2025-09-19 Shamrock Rovers D 1-159.4 1354 1542 19.77% 26.82% 53.41%-0.73 +1.1 23
2025-09-19 @ Cork City D 1-159.4 1542 1354 53.41% 26.82% 19.77%+0.73 -1.1 57
2025-09-19 Shelbourne D 1-160.6 1482 1476 42.78% 29.92% 27.29%+0.30 -0.5 50
2025-09-19 @ Derry City D 1-160.6 1476 1482 27.29% 29.92% 42.78%-0.30 +0.5 43
2025-09-19 Waterford W 2-143.6 1452 1337 57.10% 25.23% 17.67%+0.89 +2.9 50
2025-09-19 @ Bohemian L 1-243.6 1337 1452 17.67% 25.23% 57.10%-0.89 -2.9 34
2025-09-22 Cork City W 4-033.0 1489 1356 59.31% 24.17% 16.52%+0.98 +10.3 46
2025-09-22 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-433.0 1356 1489 16.52% 24.17% 59.31%-0.98 -10.3 23
2025-09-22 Shamrock Rovers L 1-246.2 1334 1540 18.33% 25.77% 55.89%-0.83 -3.0 34
2025-09-22 @ Waterford W 2-146.2 1540 1334 55.89% 25.77% 18.33%+0.83 +3.0 60
2025-09-22 Shelbourne W 2-153.5 1415 1476 33.22% 30.62% 36.17%-0.06 +5.4 46
2025-09-22 @ Drogheda United L 1-253.5 1476 1415 36.17% 30.62% 33.22%+0.06 -5.4 43
2025-09-22 Sligo Rovers L 0-146.8 1397 1351 48.14% 28.66% 23.21%+0.51 -7.1 31
2025-09-22 @ Galway United W 1-046.8 1351 1397 23.21% 28.66% 48.14%-0.51 +7.1 34
2025-09-26 Bohemian W 2-151.1 1543 1455 53.74% 26.69% 19.57%+0.74 +3.3 63
2025-09-26 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-251.1 1455 1543 19.57% 26.69% 53.74%-0.74 -3.3 50
2025-09-26 Cork City W 2-145.3 1389 1345 47.93% 28.72% 23.35%+0.51 +3.9 34
2025-09-26 @ Galway United L 1-245.3 1345 1389 23.35% 28.72% 47.93%-0.51 -3.9 23
2025-09-26 Derry City D 1-158.4 1421 1482 33.19% 30.62% 36.19%-0.06 +0.1 47
2025-09-26 @ Drogheda United D 1-158.4 1482 1421 36.19% 30.62% 33.19%+0.06 -0.1 51
2025-09-26 Waterford W 2-143.0 1471 1331 60.11% 23.77% 16.12%+1.02 +2.6 46
2025-09-26 @ Shelbourne L 1-243.0 1331 1471 16.12% 23.77% 60.11%-1.02 -2.7 34
2025-09-27 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-049.1 1358 1499 23.75% 28.87% 47.38%-0.48 +7.0 37
2025-09-27 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-149.1 1499 1358 47.38% 28.87% 23.75%+0.48 -7.0 46
2025-10-05 Drogheda United W 2-040.8 1328 1421 29.08% 30.25% 40.68%-0.22 +11.8 37
2025-10-05 @ Waterford L 0-240.8 1421 1328 40.68% 30.25% 29.08%+0.22 -11.8 47
2025-10-05 Sligo Rovers W 1-038.8 1482 1365 57.27% 25.15% 17.58%+0.89 +3.1 54
2025-10-05 @ Derry City L 0-138.8 1365 1482 17.58% 25.15% 57.27%-0.89 -3.1 37
2025-10-10 Shelbourne L 0-155.7 1547 1473 51.80% 27.44% 20.76%+0.66 -7.5 63
2025-10-10 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-055.7 1473 1547 20.76% 27.44% 51.80%-0.66 +7.5 49
2025-10-13 Shelbourne L 1-247.3 1341 1481 23.92% 28.94% 47.14%-0.47 -3.9 23
2025-10-13 @ Cork City W 2-147.3 1481 1341 47.14% 28.94% 23.92%+0.47 +4.0 52
2025-10-17 Bohemian W 2-041.6 1393 1452 33.57% 30.63% 35.80%-0.04 +10.8 37
2025-10-17 @ Galway United L 0-241.6 1452 1393 35.80% 30.63% 33.57%+0.04 -10.8 50
2025-10-17 Cork City W 1-038.3 1409 1337 51.53% 27.54% 20.93%+0.65 +3.7 50
2025-10-17 @ Drogheda United L 0-138.3 1337 1409 20.93% 27.54% 51.53%-0.65 -3.7 23
2025-10-17 Derry City L 1-247.2 1340 1485 23.41% 28.74% 47.86%-0.50 -3.9 37
2025-10-17 @ Waterford W 2-147.2 1485 1340 47.86% 28.74% 23.41%+0.50 +3.9 57
2025-10-17 Shamrock Rovers W 1-051.8 1492 1539 35.16% 30.64% 34.20%+0.02 +5.5 49
2025-10-17 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-151.8 1539 1492 34.20% 30.64% 35.16%-0.02 -5.5 63
2025-10-17 Sligo Rovers W 3-140.3 1485 1362 58.04% 24.79% 17.18%+0.93 +4.9 55
2025-10-17 @ Shelbourne L 1-340.3 1362 1485 17.18% 24.79% 58.04%-0.93 -4.9 37
2025-10-20 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-054.5 1441 1498 33.80% 30.63% 35.57%-0.03 +0.1 51
2025-10-20 @ Bohemian D 0-054.5 1498 1441 35.57% 30.63% 33.80%+0.03 -0.0 50
2025-10-24 Drogheda United D 1-156.1 1404 1413 40.68% 30.25% 29.07%+0.22 -0.3 38
2025-10-24 @ Galway United D 1-156.1 1413 1404 29.07% 30.25% 40.68%-0.22 +0.4 51
2025-10-24 Waterford D 1-158.8 1498 1336 62.68% 22.43% 14.89%+1.13 -1.6 51
2025-10-24 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-158.8 1336 1498 14.89% 22.43% 62.68%-1.13 +1.6 38
2025-10-25 Cork City D 1-154.1 1357 1334 45.09% 29.45% 25.46%+0.39 -0.6 38
2025-10-25 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-154.1 1334 1357 25.46% 29.45% 45.09%-0.39 +0.6 24
2025-10-26 Shamrock Rovers W 2-157.5 1489 1534 35.45% 30.63% 33.92%+0.03 +5.2 60
2025-10-26 @ Derry City L 1-257.5 1534 1489 33.92% 30.63% 35.45%-0.03 -5.2 63
2025-10-26 Shelbourne L 2-359.4 1441 1490 34.95% 30.64% 34.41%+0.01 -5.0 51
2025-10-26 @ Bohemian W 3-259.4 1490 1441 34.41% 30.64% 34.95%-0.01 +5.0 58
2025-10-29 Galway United W 1-041.2 1529 1404 58.27% 24.67% 17.05%+0.94 +3.0 66
2025-10-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-141.2 1404 1529 17.05% 24.67% 58.27%-0.94 -3.0 38
2025-11-01 Bohemian L 1-446.0 1413 1436 38.62% 30.47% 30.91%+0.15 -13.9 51
2025-11-01 @ Drogheda United W 4-146.0 1436 1413 30.91% 30.47% 38.62%-0.15 +13.9 54
2025-11-01 Derry City L 0-140.5 1334 1494 22.06% 28.13% 49.81%-0.58 -3.9 24
2025-11-01 @ Cork City W 1-040.5 1494 1334 49.81% 28.13% 22.06%+0.58 +3.9 63
2025-11-01 Galway United D 1-154.4 1338 1401 32.90% 30.61% 36.49%-0.07 +0.1 39
2025-11-01 @ Waterford D 1-154.4 1401 1338 36.49% 30.61% 32.90%+0.07 -0.1 39
2025-11-01 Sligo Rovers L 1-259.1 1532 1356 64.27% 21.57% 14.17%+1.20 -8.3 66
2025-11-01 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-159.1 1356 1532 14.17% 21.57% 64.27%-1.20 +8.3 41
2025-11-01 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-056.5 1495 1496 41.69% 30.10% 28.21%+0.26 -0.5 59
2025-11-01 @ Shelbourne D 0-056.5 1496 1495 28.21% 30.10% 41.69%-0.26 +0.5 52

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-11-01 14.17% Sligo Rovers 1356 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1532 1
2 2025-05-05 16.74% Waterford 1340 1 @ Shelbourne 1469 0
3 2025-05-16 18.28% Sligo Rovers 1331 1 @ Galway United 1437 0
4 2025-04-21 19.43% Bohemian 1401 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1491 2
5 2025-02-28 19.98% Waterford 1380 2 @ Derry City 1464 1
6 2025-05-02 20.11% Waterford 1332 2 @ Bohemian 1414 1
7 2025-10-10 20.76% Shelbourne 1473 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1547 0
8 2025-03-07 20.82% Drogheda United 1406 1 @ Shelbourne 1479 0
9 2025-07-25 20.94% Waterford 1349 4 @ Galway United 1420 2
10 2025-07-12 22.61% @ Sligo Rovers 1342 2 Derry City 1495 0
11 2025-09-22 23.21% Sligo Rovers 1351 1 @ Galway United 1397 0
12 2025-05-05 23.41% Bohemian 1407 2 @ Galway United 1450 1
13 2025-04-11 23.72% Drogheda United 1417 3 @ Derry City 1457 1
14 2025-09-27 23.75% @ Sligo Rovers 1358 1 St Patrick's Athletic 1499 0
15 2025-08-01 24.01% Drogheda United 1418 1 @ Bohemian 1455 0
16 2025-04-25 24.38% @ Waterford 1326 2 Derry City 1461 1
17 2025-06-16 24.39% Shelbourne 1457 1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1491 0
18 2025-03-03 24.86% @ Sligo Rovers 1337 2 Shamrock Rovers 1467 1
19 2025-04-18 24.94% Sligo Rovers 1326 4 @ Waterford 1354 0
20 2025-04-18 26.51% Derry City 1446 3 @ Galway United 1459 2
21 2025-06-23 26.69% @ Bohemian 1430 2 Shamrock Rovers 1543 0
22 2025-06-23 26.96% @ Sligo Rovers 1334 2 Galway United 1444 1
23 2025-08-22 27.14% Sligo Rovers 1344 2 @ Waterford 1352 1
24 2025-06-23 27.40% Derry City 1469 1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1475 0
25 2025-03-03 27.57% Drogheda United 1400 1 @ Bohemian 1404 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-04-18 24.46 Sligo Rovers 4 1326 24.94% @ Waterford 0 1354 45.76% 29.30%
2 2025-03-07 17.32 Bohemian 3 1397 28.62% @ Waterford 0 1393 41.21% 30.18%
3 2025-05-19 17.10 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1506 41.91% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1506 28.02% 30.07%
4 2025-11-01 13.94 Bohemian 4 1436 30.91% @ Drogheda United 1 1413 38.62% 30.47%
5 2025-07-12 13.58 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1342 22.61% Derry City 0 1495 49.00% 28.39%
6 2025-07-11 12.71 @ Bohemian 3 1442 43.13% Galway United 0 1433 27.01% 29.86%
7 2025-06-23 12.42 @ Bohemian 2 1430 26.69% Shamrock Rovers 0 1543 43.53% 29.78%
8 2025-10-05 11.82 @ Waterford 2 1328 29.08% Drogheda United 0 1421 40.68% 30.25%
9 2025-02-21 11.51 @ Drogheda United 3 1388 47.03% Sligo Rovers 0 1351 24.00% 28.97%
10 2025-04-11 11.47 Drogheda United 3 1417 23.72% @ Derry City 1 1457 47.42% 28.86%
11 2025-07-25 10.92 Waterford 4 1349 20.94% @ Galway United 2 1420 51.51% 27.54%
12 2025-06-27 10.90 @ Derry City 3 1476 49.02% Drogheda United 0 1423 22.59% 28.39%
13 2025-06-13 10.86 Bohemian 2 1425 33.20% @ Cork City 0 1385 36.18% 30.62%
14 2025-10-17 10.78 @ Galway United 2 1393 33.57% Bohemian 0 1452 35.80% 30.63%
15 2025-03-28 10.68 Galway United 2 1451 34.03% @ Bohemian 0 1405 35.33% 30.64%
16 2025-05-09 10.56 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1489 50.15% Drogheda United 0 1428 21.83% 28.02%
17 2025-09-22 10.31 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1489 59.31% Cork City 0 1356 16.52% 24.17%
18 2025-03-14 9.98 @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1490 52.09% Bohemian 0 1415 20.58% 27.33%
19 2025-05-02 9.77 @ Derry City 2 1454 38.35% Shelbourne 0 1479 31.15% 30.49%
20 2025-07-11 9.74 @ Waterford 2 1339 38.49% Cork City 0 1363 31.03% 30.48%
21 2025-04-11 9.52 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1504 39.54% @ Cork City 0 1419 30.07% 30.38%
22 2025-08-22 9.29 @ Bohemian 3 1449 54.41% Cork City 0 1355 19.18% 26.41%
23 2025-06-20 9.08 @ Galway United 3 1435 34.95% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1484 34.41% 30.64%
24 2025-08-29 9.03 @ Cork City 2 1345 41.83% Waterford 0 1346 28.09% 30.08%
25 2025-04-22 9.01 @ Derry City 3 1452 55.38% Sligo Rovers 0 1350 18.62% 26.00%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-04-18 68.5 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1513 44.96% Shamrock Rovers 2 1491 25.55% 29.48%
2 2025-08-29 66.9 @ Derry City 2 1477 40.09% St Patrick's Athletic 2 1490 29.59% 30.32%
3 2025-04-25 66.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1485 42.68% Shelbourne 2 1479 27.38% 29.94%
4 2025-04-21 65.9 @ Shelbourne 2 1479 45.44% Galway United 2 1453 25.19% 29.37%
5 2025-08-09 65.5 @ Shelbourne 2 1472 45.22% Bohemian 2 1448 25.35% 29.42%
6 2025-07-05 64.8 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1341 19.43% Shamrock Rovers 2 1533 53.98% 26.59%
7 2025-04-18 64.7 @ Drogheda United 2 1428 34.63% Shelbourne 2 1479 34.73% 30.64%
8 2025-05-23 64.6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1489 60.31% Waterford 2 1347 16.02% 23.67%
9 2025-02-14 63.5 @ Cork City 2 1425 39.61% Galway United 2 1441 30.01% 30.38%
10 2025-09-12 62.9 Derry City 4 1477 30.45% @ Bohemian 3 1457 39.13% 30.43%
11 2025-04-21 62.7 Bohemian 3 1401 19.43% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1491 53.99% 26.59%
12 2025-06-23 62.0 @ Waterford 2 1350 27.22% Shelbourne 2 1458 42.87% 29.91%
13 2025-05-30 61.1 @ Waterford 2 1349 31.32% Drogheda United 2 1423 38.17% 30.51%
14 2025-05-02 61.0 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1341 30.24% Drogheda United 2 1424 39.35% 30.40%
15 2025-04-18 60.9 Derry City 3 1446 26.51% @ Galway United 2 1459 43.75% 29.74%
16 2025-09-19 60.6 @ Derry City 1 1482 42.78% Shelbourne 1 1476 27.29% 29.92%
17 2025-02-28 60.2 @ Shelbourne 1 1479 43.68% Shamrock Rovers 1 1466 26.56% 29.75%
18 2025-07-25 60.0 @ Derry City 1 1482 45.63% Bohemian 1 1454 25.04% 29.33%
19 2025-09-19 59.4 @ Cork City 1 1354 19.77% Shamrock Rovers 1 1542 53.41% 26.82%
20 2025-10-26 59.4 Shelbourne 3 1490 34.41% @ Bohemian 2 1441 34.95% 30.64%
21 2025-03-03 59.2 @ Galway United 1 1447 37.32% Shelbourne 1 1479 32.12% 30.57%
22 2025-09-19 59.1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1490 54.50% Galway United 1 1395 19.13% 26.38%
23 2025-11-01 59.1 Sligo Rovers 2 1356 14.17% @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1532 64.27% 21.57%
24 2025-03-14 58.8 @ Shelbourne 1 1472 48.50% Cork City 1 1423 22.95% 28.55%
25 2025-10-24 58.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1498 62.68% Waterford 1 1336 14.89% 22.43%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-08-10 32.3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1476 58.15% Sligo Rovers 0 1352 17.12% 24.73%
2 2025-04-22 32.5 @ Derry City 3 1452 55.38% Sligo Rovers 0 1350 18.62% 26.00%
3 2025-08-22 32.8 @ Bohemian 3 1449 54.41% Cork City 0 1355 19.18% 26.41%
4 2025-05-05 33.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1484 60.42% Sligo Rovers 0 1341 15.97% 23.61%
5 2025-09-22 33.0 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1489 59.31% Cork City 0 1356 16.52% 24.17%
6 2025-02-21 33.8 @ Drogheda United 3 1388 47.03% Sligo Rovers 0 1351 24.00% 28.97%
7 2025-04-11 34.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1477 57.31% Waterford 0 1360 17.56% 25.13%
8 2025-04-04 35.7 @ Drogheda United 2 1409 47.57% Waterford 0 1368 23.61% 28.82%
9 2025-08-29 36.1 @ Cork City 2 1345 41.83% Waterford 0 1346 28.09% 30.08%
10 2025-03-14 36.4 @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1490 52.09% Bohemian 0 1415 20.58% 27.33%
11 2025-07-04 36.7 @ Derry City 7 1487 60.02% Waterford 2 1348 16.17% 23.82%
12 2025-06-27 37.1 @ Derry City 3 1476 49.02% Drogheda United 0 1423 22.59% 28.39%
13 2025-07-11 37.2 @ Waterford 2 1339 38.49% Cork City 0 1363 31.03% 30.48%
14 2025-05-09 37.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1489 50.15% Drogheda United 0 1428 21.83% 28.02%
15 2025-06-27 37.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1530 64.87% Waterford 0 1350 13.89% 21.23%
16 2025-06-20 38.0 @ Drogheda United 1 1420 52.97% Sligo Rovers 0 1337 20.03% 26.99%
17 2025-07-11 38.1 @ Bohemian 3 1442 43.13% Galway United 0 1433 27.01% 29.86%
18 2025-06-20 38.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1537 62.86% Cork City 1 1374 14.81% 22.33%
19 2025-08-03 38.3 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1467 42.78% @ Waterford 0 1360 27.30% 29.92%
20 2025-10-17 38.3 @ Drogheda United 1 1409 51.53% Cork City 0 1337 20.93% 27.54%
21 2025-08-02 38.5 Shelbourne 2 1463 42.02% @ Sligo Rovers 0 1361 27.93% 30.05%
22 2025-10-05 38.8 @ Derry City 1 1482 57.27% Sligo Rovers 0 1365 17.58% 25.15%
23 2025-03-14 39.8 @ Galway United 1 1447 51.56% Waterford 0 1375 20.91% 27.53%
24 2025-03-07 40.2 Bohemian 3 1397 28.62% @ Waterford 0 1393 41.21% 30.18%
25 2025-04-18 40.3 Sligo Rovers 4 1326 24.94% @ Waterford 0 1354 45.76% 29.30%