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1938-39 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Bologna

42 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1936-37

Relegated

Livorno

24 pts

Lucchese · 24 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Bologna

8.03 points above expected

42 points · 33.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Triestina

6.11 points below expected

24 points · 30.11 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bologna Champion 30 16 10 4 42 53 31 +22 33.97 +8.03
2 Torino 30 14 10 6 38 45 34 +11 32.35 +5.65
3 Inter Milan 30 14 9 7 37 55 37 +18 34.44 +2.56
4 Genova 1893 30 14 7 9 35 53 30 +23 32.64 +2.36
5 Roma 30 14 3 13 31 39 35 +4 31.11 -0.11
6 Liguria 30 12 7 11 31 35 34 +1 29.81 +1.19
7 Napoli 30 10 11 9 31 30 35 -5 28.47 +2.53
8 Juventus 30 8 13 9 29 28 34 -6 31.81 -2.81
9 AC Milan 30 10 8 12 28 36 34 +2 31.03 -3.03
10 Lazio Roma 30 11 6 13 28 33 40 -7 31.21 -3.21
11 Bari 30 9 9 12 27 33 46 -13 27.49 -0.49
12 Novara 30 9 8 13 26 27 32 -5 28.16 -2.16
13 Modena 30 8 9 13 25 32 40 -8 24.36 +0.64
14 Triestina 30 7 10 13 24 23 28 -5 30.11 -6.11
15 Livorno Relegated 30 9 6 15 24 40 49 -9 27.41 -3.41
16 Lucchese Relegated 30 7 10 13 24 31 54 -23 25.64 -1.64

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Bologna 1913 42 33.97 +8.03 98.6% 18 27 31 34 37 41 48
Inter Milan 1889 37 34.44 +2.56 77.6% 20 28 32 34 37 41 48
Genova 1893 1872 35 32.64 +2.36 76.0% 18 26 30 33 35 39 49
Torino 1850 38 32.35 +5.65 93.6% 18 26 30 32 35 39 46
AC Milan 1835 28 31.03 -3.03 26.1% 15 25 28 31 34 38 46
Juventus 1829 29 31.81 -2.81 27.5% 17 25 29 32 34 38 46
Roma 1821 31 31.11 -0.11 54.1% 16 24 28 31 34 38 46
Triestina 1792 24 30.11 -6.11 8.0% 16 24 27 30 33 37 46
Lazio Roma 1791 28 31.21 -3.21 24.7% 17 25 29 31 34 38 46
Napoli 1779 31 28.47 +2.53 77.4% 12 22 26 28 31 35 44
Liguria 1778 31 29.81 +1.19 66.5% 11 23 27 30 32 36 44
Novara 1770 26 28.16 -2.16 34.3% 14 22 25 28 31 35 45
Livorno 1744 24 27.41 -3.41 23.5% 13 21 25 27 30 34 43
Bari 1742 27 27.49 -0.49 50.1% 11 21 25 27 30 34 44
Modena 1715 25 24.36 +0.64 61.9% 9 18 22 24 27 31 41
Lucchese 1696 24 25.64 -1.64 39.1% 11 19 23 26 28 32 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM BAR BOL G1 IM JUV LR LIG LIV LUC MOD NAP NOV ROM TOR TRI
AC Milan —
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
2.36
0-2-0
2.67
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.02
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.32
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.01
0-0-2
2.78
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.83
Bari
1-0-1
2.41
 —
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.36
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.89
2-0-0
2.93
0-2-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.49
Bologna
2-0-0
2.99
1-1-0
3.35
 —
2-0-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
3.00
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
3.05
0-1-1
3.25
0-2-0
3.68
0-2-0
3.65
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.08
Genova 1893
2-0-0
2.83
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
2.64
 —
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.98
0-1-1
3.35
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.53
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
2.71
0-2-0
2.96
Inter Milan
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.35
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.89
 —
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.70
0-0-2
3.34
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.14
Juventus
0-2-0
2.77
1-1-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.45
 —
1-1-0
2.76
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.16
0-1-1
3.34
0-1-1
3.52
1-0-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
2.91
Lazio Roma
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
2.56
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
2.67
 —
2-0-0
2.77
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
3.34
0-2-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.81
Liguria
0-1-1
2.62
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
2.40
2-0-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.66
 —
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.14
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.68
Livorno
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.21
1-1-0
2.12
0-1-1
2.02
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
2.42
0-1-1
2.47
 —
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.44
Lucchese
0-0-2
2.25
0-2-0
2.54
0-2-0
1.78
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
1.85
1-1-0
2.11
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.58
 —
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.35
Modena
0-1-1
2.14
0-0-2
2.51
0-2-0
1.84
0-1-1
1.93
0-1-1
1.78
1-1-0
1.95
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.32
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.57
 —
2-0-0
2.34
0-2-0
2.42
2-0-0
2.01
0-0-2
1.94
1-1-0
2.14
Napoli
1-1-0
2.47
0-2-0
2.83
0-0-2
2.24
1-0-1
2.33
2-0-0
2.12
1-0-1
2.38
0-2-0
2.52
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
3.10
 —
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.57
Novara
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
2.31
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.97
0-2-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.72
 —
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.53
Roma
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
3.07
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.13
0-0-2
3.46
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.99
 —
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.80
Torino
1-1-0
2.88
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.73
1-1-0
2.55
1-1-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-2
2.87
 —
1-0-1
2.85
Triestina
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.37
0-2-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.30
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.09
0-1-1
3.31
0-1-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.57
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.66 +4.5
Allowed 0.22 -3.6
Differential 0.77 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.42%11.88%5.00%2.08%0.42%0.83%30.63%
111.88%12.92%6.25%3.96%1.04%1.04%37.08%
25.00%6.25%4.58%2.08%0.62%0.21%18.75%
32.08%3.96%2.08%0.42%0.21%0.21%8.96%
40.42%1.04%0.62%0.21%——2.29%
5+0.83%1.04%0.21%0.21%——2.29%
Total30.63%37.08%18.75%8.96%2.29%2.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.24 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.73
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
110.00%—13.33%———23.33%
26.67%6.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%—33.33%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%30.00%30.00%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.13 +0.07
SD 1.03 1.04 1.28
CV 0.86 0.92 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%6.67%6.67%—3.33%40.00%
16.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%——26.67%
26.67%10.00%3.33%———20.00%
3—3.33%——3.33%3.33%10.00%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%40.00%13.33%10.00%3.33%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.53 -0.43
SD 1.16 1.76 2.06
CV 1.05 1.15 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.33%3.33%3.33%——10.00%
113.33%26.67%—3.33%——43.33%
26.67%10.00%6.67%———23.33%
36.67%3.33%3.33%———13.33%
43.33%——3.33%——6.67%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total30.00%46.67%13.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.03 +0.73
SD 1.33 0.93 1.68
CV 0.75 0.90 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%——33.33%
16.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%——20.00%
26.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%——20.00%
33.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+3.33%6.67%————10.00%
Total33.33%43.33%13.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.00 +0.77
SD 1.98 0.95 2.27
CV 1.12 0.95 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%—3.33%——20.00%
110.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%—40.00%
23.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
3—6.67%3.33%———10.00%
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+3.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%——13.33%
Total26.67%40.00%20.00%10.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.23 +0.60
SD 1.80 1.07 1.96
CV 0.98 0.87 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%13.33%3.33%——3.33%33.33%
113.33%26.67%——3.33%—43.33%
2—10.00%3.33%6.67%——20.00%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%50.00%6.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.13 -0.20
SD 0.83 1.22 1.42
CV 0.89 1.08 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%3.33%10.00%3.33%3.33%—26.67%
116.67%10.00%16.67%6.67%——50.00%
23.33%10.00%3.33%———16.67%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total30.00%23.33%33.33%10.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.33 -0.23
SD 1.06 1.12 1.74
CV 0.97 0.84 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%————26.67%
120.00%10.00%10.00%3.33%——43.33%
26.67%3.33%3.33%——3.33%16.67%
3—3.33%6.67%3.33%——13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%36.67%20.00%6.67%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.13 +0.03
SD 0.99 1.17 1.22
CV 0.84 1.03 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.33%13.33%———16.67%
116.67%6.67%13.33%6.67%3.33%—46.67%
23.33%—10.00%10.00%——23.33%
33.33%6.67%—3.33%——13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.33%16.67%36.67%20.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.63 -0.30
SD 0.92 1.16 1.49
CV 0.69 0.71 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%13.33%—3.33%—3.33%23.33%
110.00%23.33%6.67%3.33%6.67%6.67%56.67%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%50.00%13.33%6.67%6.67%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.80 -0.77
SD 0.81 1.69 1.94
CV 0.78 0.94 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%16.67%6.67%———33.33%
110.00%16.67%3.33%3.33%—3.33%36.67%
26.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%6.67%—23.33%
3——3.33%———3.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total30.00%36.67%16.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.33 -0.27
SD 1.01 1.35 1.55
CV 0.95 1.01 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%—43.33%
110.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%—3.33%26.67%
26.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 1.11 1.42 1.80
CV 1.11 1.21 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%—6.67%——40.00%
110.00%10.00%6.67%13.33%——40.00%
210.00%6.67%————16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total40.00%33.33%6.67%20.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 1.07 -0.17
SD 1.06 1.14 1.68
CV 1.18 1.07 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%10.00%——3.33%33.33%
120.00%—3.33%6.67%——30.00%
26.67%—3.33%6.67%——16.67%
36.67%6.67%————13.33%
4—6.67%————6.67%
5+———————
Total40.00%26.67%16.67%13.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.17 +0.13
SD 1.26 1.29 1.94
CV 0.97 1.10 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%3.33%———20.00%
113.33%23.33%3.33%3.33%—3.33%46.67%
2—6.67%————6.67%
36.67%3.33%10.00%———20.00%
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total30.00%43.33%20.00%3.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.13 +0.37
SD 1.31 1.22 1.69
CV 0.87 1.08 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%26.67%10.00%———56.67%
13.33%10.00%6.67%———20.00%
26.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
3—3.33%————3.33%
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+———————
Total30.00%46.67%23.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 0.93 -0.17
SD 1.07 0.74 1.18
CV 1.40 0.79 —
Max 4 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bologna 42 33.97 +8.03
2 Torino 38 32.35 +5.65
3 Inter Milan 37 34.44 +2.56
4 Napoli 31 28.47 +2.53
5 Genova 1893 35 32.64 +2.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Triestina 24 30.11 -6.11
2 Livorno 24 27.41 -3.41
3 Lazio Roma 28 31.21 -3.21
4 AC Milan 28 31.03 -3.03
5 Juventus 29 31.81 -2.81

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liguria 4 Oct 9 – Nov 6 1 in 201
2 Bologna 5 Oct 16 – Nov 27 1 in 157
3 Napoli 2 Apr 9 – Apr 16 1 in 28
4 Modena 2 Oct 30 – Nov 6 1 in 26
5 Roma 3 Oct 2 – Oct 16 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liguria 5 Apr 2 – Apr 30 1 in 228
2 Triestina 4 Oct 2 – Oct 30 1 in 140
3 Livorno 3 Feb 19 – Mar 5 1 in 46
4 Roma 3 Jan 8 – Jan 22 1 in 27
5 AC Milan 3 Oct 2 – Oct 16 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bologna 19 Oct 16 – Mar 19 1 in 1,498
2 Liguria 7 Sep 18 – Nov 6 1 in 54
3 Lucchese 5 Nov 27 – Jan 8 1 in 31
4 Triestina 7 Feb 12 – Apr 2 1 in 27
5 Juventus 7 Apr 2 – May 28 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liguria 10 Mar 5 – May 28 1 in 92
2 Lucchese 10 Feb 26 – May 21 1 in 35
3 AC Milan 7 Sep 18 – Nov 6 1 in 32
4 Juventus 6 Jan 29 – Mar 5 1 in 30
5 Modena 9 Nov 13 – Jan 29 1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Bologna20.52%15.80%13.25%9.91%8.64%6.91%5.79%4.69%3.91%3.01%2.47%1.80%1.46%0.92%0.70%0.22%
Torino10.49%10.44%10.87%9.80%8.98%8.76%7.61%6.79%6.01%5.02%4.54%3.60%3.05%2.05%1.20%0.79%
Inter Milan24.16%16.27%12.40%10.23%8.23%6.43%5.51%4.45%3.54%2.78%2.12%1.46%1.02%0.69%0.58%0.13%
Genova 189312.80%12.12%10.99%10.00%9.19%8.32%7.34%6.28%5.51%4.60%3.60%3.30%2.58%1.57%1.31%0.49%
Roma5.85%7.07%7.73%8.57%8.29%7.85%7.97%8.21%7.32%7.02%6.41%5.17%4.44%4.07%2.64%1.39%
Liguria2.78%4.44%5.16%6.28%6.32%7.61%7.67%8.28%7.62%8.57%7.81%7.27%7.06%5.55%4.77%2.81%
Napoli1.25%2.20%3.04%3.98%4.85%5.58%5.94%6.69%8.02%8.00%8.57%9.45%8.91%9.58%7.54%6.40%
Juventus6.51%8.22%8.39%9.23%8.73%8.15%8.36%8.30%7.03%6.12%5.77%5.01%4.08%3.05%1.87%1.18%
AC Milan4.91%6.57%7.66%7.96%8.15%8.90%8.39%8.34%7.50%7.06%6.64%5.49%4.96%3.55%2.53%1.39%
Lazio Roma5.05%6.67%7.21%7.75%8.73%8.16%8.12%7.74%8.02%7.16%6.21%5.73%4.70%4.22%2.91%1.62%
Bari0.55%1.41%2.14%2.81%3.33%3.72%4.49%5.54%5.93%7.42%8.45%10.08%10.48%11.05%11.71%10.89%
Novara1.31%1.95%2.81%3.37%4.09%5.11%5.78%6.50%7.51%8.10%8.42%9.24%9.90%9.69%8.98%7.24%
Modena0.10%0.22%0.31%0.54%0.82%1.46%1.61%2.29%2.99%4.21%5.66%7.22%9.39%13.31%19.43%30.44%
Triestina2.95%4.86%5.54%5.98%6.92%7.36%8.04%7.24%8.24%7.77%7.66%7.81%6.94%5.80%4.09%2.80%
Livorno0.61%1.25%1.87%2.47%3.13%3.82%4.82%5.59%6.59%7.67%9.20%9.30%10.43%11.84%11.69%9.72%
Lucchese0.16%0.51%0.63%1.12%1.60%1.86%2.56%3.07%4.26%5.49%6.47%8.07%10.60%13.06%18.05%22.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+35.83%
Strong Edge
53.75%28.33%17.92%
Elo Value
Home Edge
189 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0130.28500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.74 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.69+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.0
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Bologna, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.13/gm
Photo Finish
00.070.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.19 * Some Luck: 3.19 to 4.78 * Lucky: 4.78 to 6.37 * Wild Swing: 6.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.66 * Close: 2.66 to 3.99 * Off: 3.99 to 5.32 * Way Off: 5.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.75 * Several Surprises: 1.75 to 2.41 * Many Surprises: 2.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.54 points
Some Luck
03.9810
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.25
Pinpoint
03.338
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.56%
Bologna
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
7.99%
Triestina
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.10
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.00
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
78%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.58
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.79
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.53
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.08 to 0.12 * Above Noise: 0.12 to 0.16 * Well Above Noise: 0.16 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.93
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.0780.2

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Inter Milan 99.29% 0.71%
Bologna 99.08% 0.92%
Genova 1893 98.20% 1.80%
Torino 98.01% 1.99%
Juventus 96.95% 3.05%
AC Milan 96.08% 3.92%
Roma 95.97% 4.03%
Lazio Roma 95.47% 4.53%
Triestina 93.11% 6.89%
Liguria 92.42% 7.58%
Napoli 86.06% 13.94%
Novara 83.78% 16.22%
Livorno 78.59% 21.41%
Bari 77.40% 22.60%
Lucchese 59.46% 40.54%
Modena 50.13% 49.87%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1938-09-18 Livorno W 2-0 1746 1774 55.0% 29.0% 16.0% +6.2 2
1938-09-18 @ Bari L 0-2 1774 1746 16.0% 29.0% 55.0% -6.2 0
1938-09-18 Bologna L 2-3 1838 1847 56.7% 28.7% 14.6% -7.9 0
1938-09-18 @ Genova 1893 W 3-2 1847 1838 14.6% 28.7% 56.7% +7.9 2
1938-09-18 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1871 1827 61.4% 27.3% 11.3% -1.8 1
1938-09-18 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1827 1871 11.3% 27.3% 61.4% +1.8 1
1938-09-18 Juventus W 1-0 1732 1859 44.1% 30.0% 25.9% +4.8 2
1938-09-18 @ Lucchese L 0-1 1859 1732 25.9% 30.0% 44.1% -4.8 0
1938-09-18 Liguria L 2-3 1701 1762 51.6% 29.6% 18.8% -7.3 0
1938-09-18 @ Modena W 3-2 1762 1701 18.8% 29.6% 51.6% +7.3 2
1938-09-18 Novara W 2-1 1788 1766 59.4% 27.9% 12.6% +2.5 2
1938-09-18 @ Napoli L 1-2 1766 1788 12.6% 27.9% 59.4% -2.5 0
1938-09-18 AC Milan W 1-0 1823 1839 56.0% 28.8% 15.1% +3.1 2
1938-09-18 @ Roma L 0-1 1839 1823 15.1% 28.8% 56.0% -3.1 0
1938-09-18 Triestina W 1-0 1814 1828 56.3% 28.8% 14.9% +3.1 2
1938-09-18 @ Torino L 0-1 1828 1814 14.9% 28.8% 56.3% -3.1 0
1938-09-25 Napoli D 0-0 1836 1790 61.5% 27.2% 11.2% -2.1 1
1938-09-25 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1790 1836 11.2% 27.2% 61.5% +2.1 3
1938-09-25 Bari W 4-3 1855 1752 66.0% 25.4% 8.7% +1.6 4
1938-09-25 @ Bologna L 3-4 1752 1855 8.7% 25.4% 66.0% -1.6 2
1938-09-25 Modena D 1-1 1855 1694 70.1% 23.2% 6.7% -2.4 1
1938-09-25 @ Juventus D 1-1 1694 1855 6.7% 23.2% 70.1% +2.4 1
1938-09-25 Genova 1893 W 2-1 1829 1830 57.5% 28.5% 14.0% +2.8 3
1938-09-25 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1830 1829 14.0% 28.5% 57.5% -2.8 0
1938-09-25 Torino D 1-1 1768 1817 52.8% 29.4% 17.8% -1.2 1
1938-09-25 @ Livorno D 1-1 1817 1768 17.8% 29.4% 52.8% +1.2 3
1938-09-25 Inter Milan L 0-1 1764 1870 46.7% 30.0% 23.3% -7.5 0
1938-09-25 @ Novara W 1-0 1870 1764 23.3% 30.0% 46.7% +7.5 3
1938-09-25 Roma W 3-2 1769 1826 52.1% 29.5% 18.4% +3.3 4
1938-09-25 @ Liguria L 2-3 1826 1769 18.4% 29.5% 52.1% -3.3 2
1938-09-25 Lucchese W 2-1 1824 1737 64.8% 25.9% 9.3% +1.8 2
1938-09-25 @ Triestina L 1-2 1737 1824 9.3% 25.9% 64.8% -1.8 2
1938-10-02 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1751 1832 49.5% 29.8% 20.7% +3.8 4
1938-10-02 @ Bari L 1-2 1832 1751 20.7% 29.8% 49.5% -3.8 3
1938-10-02 Novara W 3-1 1827 1756 63.5% 26.5% 10.0% +3.5 2
1938-10-02 @ Genova 1893 L 1-3 1756 1827 10.0% 26.5% 63.5% -3.5 0
1938-10-02 AC Milan W 1-0 1877 1834 61.3% 27.3% 11.4% +2.4 5
1938-10-02 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1834 1877 11.4% 27.3% 61.3% -2.4 1
1938-10-02 Bologna W 3-1 1766 1857 48.4% 29.9% 21.7% +6.9 3
1938-10-02 @ Livorno L 1-3 1857 1766 21.7% 29.9% 48.4% -6.9 4
1938-10-02 Triestina W 1-0 1696 1826 43.7% 30.0% 26.2% +4.8 3
1938-10-02 @ Modena L 0-1 1826 1696 26.2% 30.0% 43.7% -4.8 2
1938-10-02 Liguria D 0-0 1792 1773 59.3% 28.0% 12.7% -1.9 4
1938-10-02 @ Napoli D 0-0 1773 1792 12.7% 28.0% 59.3% +1.9 5
1938-10-02 Juventus W 1-0 1823 1852 54.8% 29.1% 16.1% +3.3 4
1938-10-02 @ Roma L 0-1 1852 1823 16.1% 29.1% 54.8% -3.3 1
1938-10-02 Lucchese W 5-1 1818 1735 64.5% 26.0% 9.5% +5.9 5
1938-10-02 @ Torino L 1-5 1735 1818 9.5% 26.0% 64.5% -5.9 2
1938-10-09 Genova 1893 L 1-2 1832 1831 57.7% 28.4% 13.9% -8.5 1
1938-10-09 @ AC Milan W 2-1 1831 1832 13.9% 28.4% 57.7% +8.5 4
1938-10-09 Torino L 0-3 1850 1824 59.8% 27.8% 12.4% -25.5 4
1938-10-09 @ Bologna W 3-0 1824 1850 12.4% 27.8% 59.8% +25.4 7
1938-10-09 Napoli W 1-0 1849 1790 62.5% 26.9% 10.6% +2.2 3
1938-10-09 @ Juventus L 0-1 1790 1849 10.6% 26.9% 62.5% -2.2 4
1938-10-09 Livorno W 2-1 1828 1773 62.3% 27.0% 10.8% +2.1 5
1938-10-09 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1773 1828 10.8% 27.0% 62.3% -2.1 3
1938-10-09 Modena W 3-1 1729 1701 60.0% 27.8% 12.2% +4.2 4
1938-10-09 @ Lucchese L 1-3 1701 1729 12.2% 27.8% 60.0% -4.2 3
1938-10-09 Bari W 2-0 1753 1755 57.4% 28.5% 14.1% +5.5 2
1938-10-09 @ Novara L 0-2 1755 1753 14.1% 28.5% 57.4% -5.5 4
1938-10-09 Inter Milan W 1-0 1775 1879 46.8% 30.0% 23.2% +4.4 7
1938-10-09 @ Liguria L 0-1 1879 1775 23.2% 30.0% 46.8% -4.4 5
1938-10-09 Roma L 0-1 1821 1826 57.1% 28.6% 14.3% -8.9 2
1938-10-09 @ Triestina W 1-0 1826 1821 14.3% 28.6% 57.1% +8.9 6
1938-10-16 AC Milan W 2-1 1749 1823 50.2% 29.7% 20.0% +3.7 6
1938-10-16 @ Bari L 1-2 1823 1749 20.0% 29.7% 50.2% -3.7 1
1938-10-16 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1825 1830 57.0% 28.6% 14.4% +5.6 6
1938-10-16 @ Bologna L 0-2 1830 1825 14.4% 28.6% 57.0% -5.6 5
1938-10-16 Liguria L 0-1 1839 1779 62.6% 26.8% 10.5% -9.7 4
1938-10-16 @ Genova 1893 W 1-0 1779 1839 10.5% 26.8% 62.6% +9.7 9
1938-10-16 Juventus W 5-0 1875 1851 59.7% 27.9% 12.5% +11.6 7
1938-10-16 @ Inter Milan L 0-5 1851 1875 12.5% 27.9% 59.7% -11.6 3
1938-10-16 Novara L 0-2 1771 1759 58.7% 28.2% 13.2% -17.2 3
1938-10-16 @ Livorno W 2-0 1759 1771 13.2% 28.2% 58.7% +17.2 4
1938-10-16 Triestina W 2-0 1788 1812 55.3% 29.0% 15.7% +6.1 6
1938-10-16 @ Napoli L 0-2 1812 1788 15.7% 29.0% 55.3% -6.1 2
1938-10-16 Lucchese W 3-0 1835 1733 65.9% 25.4% 8.7% +5.0 8
1938-10-16 @ Roma L 0-3 1733 1835 8.7% 25.4% 65.9% -5.0 4
1938-10-16 Modena W 4-2 1850 1697 69.6% 23.5% 7.0% +2.1 9
1938-10-16 @ Torino L 2-4 1697 1850 7.0% 23.5% 69.6% -2.1 3
1938-10-30 Livorno D 2-2 1819 1754 63.1% 26.6% 10.3% -1.5 2
1938-10-30 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1754 1819 10.3% 26.6% 63.1% +1.5 4
1938-10-30 Genova 1893 D 1-1 1840 1829 58.5% 28.2% 13.3% -1.6 4
1938-10-30 @ Juventus D 1-1 1829 1840 13.3% 28.2% 58.5% +1.6 5
1938-10-30 Torino D 1-1 1825 1852 55.0% 29.0% 15.9% -1.4 6
1938-10-30 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1852 1825 15.9% 29.0% 55.0% +1.4 10
1938-10-30 Napoli D 2-2 1728 1794 51.1% 29.6% 19.2% -0.8 5
1938-10-30 @ Lucchese D 2-2 1794 1728 19.2% 29.6% 51.1% +0.8 7
1938-10-30 Roma W 2-0 1695 1840 41.9% 30.0% 28.1% +9.6 5
1938-10-30 @ Modena L 0-2 1840 1695 28.1% 30.0% 41.9% -9.6 8
1938-10-30 Bologna L 1-3 1776 1830 52.3% 29.5% 18.2% -13.5 4
1938-10-30 @ Novara W 3-1 1830 1776 18.2% 29.5% 52.3% +13.4 8
1938-10-30 Bari W 1-0 1789 1753 60.7% 27.5% 11.8% +2.5 11
1938-10-30 @ Liguria L 0-1 1753 1789 11.8% 27.5% 60.7% -2.5 6
1938-10-30 Inter Milan L 1-2 1806 1887 49.6% 29.8% 20.6% -7.4 2
1938-10-30 @ Triestina W 2-1 1887 1806 20.6% 29.8% 49.6% +7.4 9
1938-11-06 Juventus D 1-1 1750 1838 48.7% 29.9% 21.4% -0.9 7
1938-11-06 @ Bari D 1-1 1838 1750 21.4% 29.9% 48.7% +0.9 5
1938-11-06 AC Milan W 2-1 1844 1818 59.8% 27.8% 12.4% +2.5 10
1938-11-06 @ Bologna L 1-2 1818 1844 12.4% 27.8% 59.8% -2.5 2
1938-11-06 Triestina D 0-0 1831 1799 60.4% 27.6% 12.0% -2.0 6
1938-11-06 @ Genova 1893 D 0-0 1799 1831 12.0% 27.6% 60.4% +2.0 3
1938-11-06 Lucchese W 7-1 1894 1727 70.5% 22.9% 6.6% +5.7 11
1938-11-06 @ Inter Milan L 1-7 1727 1894 6.6% 22.9% 70.5% -5.7 5
1938-11-06 Novara W 1-0 1823 1762 62.7% 26.8% 10.5% +2.2 8
1938-11-06 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1762 1823 10.5% 26.8% 62.7% -2.2 4
1938-11-06 Liguria L 0-1 1755 1791 54.2% 29.2% 16.6% -8.5 4
1938-11-06 @ Livorno W 1-0 1791 1755 16.6% 29.2% 54.2% +8.5 13
1938-11-06 Modena L 0-1 1795 1704 65.0% 25.8% 9.2% -10.0 7
1938-11-06 @ Napoli W 1-0 1704 1795 9.2% 25.8% 65.0% +10.0 7
1938-11-06 Roma L 0-1 1853 1830 59.6% 27.9% 12.5% -9.3 10
1938-11-06 @ Torino W 1-0 1830 1853 12.5% 27.9% 59.6% +9.3 10
1938-11-13 Lazio Roma W 3-0 1816 1826 56.6% 28.7% 14.7% +8.3 4
1938-11-13 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1826 1816 14.7% 28.7% 56.6% -8.3 8
1938-11-13 Livorno W 2-1 1839 1747 65.2% 25.7% 9.1% +1.8 7
1938-11-13 @ Juventus L 1-2 1747 1839 9.1% 25.7% 65.2% -1.8 4
1938-11-13 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1722 1829 46.5% 30.0% 23.5% -7.4 5
1938-11-13 @ Lucchese W 1-0 1829 1722 23.5% 30.0% 46.5% +7.4 8
1938-11-13 Inter Milan D 1-1 1714 1900 36.5% 29.8% 33.7% -0.1 8
1938-11-13 @ Modena D 1-1 1900 1714 33.7% 29.8% 36.5% +0.1 12
1938-11-13 Torino L 0-1 1760 1844 49.2% 29.8% 21.0% -7.8 4
1938-11-13 @ Novara W 1-0 1844 1760 21.0% 29.8% 49.2% +7.8 12
1938-11-13 Napoli D 2-2 1840 1785 62.2% 27.0% 10.8% -1.4 11
1938-11-13 @ Roma D 2-2 1785 1840 10.8% 27.0% 62.2% +1.4 8
1938-11-13 Bologna L 1-2 1800 1846 53.1% 29.4% 17.5% -7.9 13
1938-11-13 @ Liguria W 2-1 1846 1800 17.5% 29.4% 53.1% +7.9 12
1938-11-13 Bari W 1-0 1801 1749 62.0% 27.1% 11.0% +2.3 5
1938-11-13 @ Triestina L 0-1 1749 1801 11.0% 27.1% 62.0% -2.3 7
1938-11-27 Lucchese D 1-1 1747 1714 60.4% 27.6% 12.0% -1.8 8
1938-11-27 @ Bari D 1-1 1714 1747 12.0% 27.6% 60.4% +1.8 6
1938-11-27 Juventus W 1-0 1854 1841 58.7% 28.1% 13.1% +2.8 14
1938-11-27 @ Bologna L 0-1 1841 1854 13.1% 28.1% 58.7% -2.8 7
1938-11-27 Modena W 5-1 1836 1714 67.4% 24.6% 8.0% +4.9 10
1938-11-27 @ Genova 1893 L 1-5 1714 1836 8.0% 24.6% 67.4% -4.9 8
1938-11-27 Roma D 0-0 1900 1838 62.8% 26.8% 10.5% -2.2 13
1938-11-27 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1838 1900 10.5% 26.8% 62.8% +2.2 12
1938-11-27 Liguria W 1-0 1817 1792 59.8% 27.8% 12.4% +2.6 10
1938-11-27 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1792 1817 12.4% 27.8% 59.8% -2.6 13
1938-11-27 Triestina W 1-0 1745 1803 51.9% 29.5% 18.5% +3.7 6
1938-11-27 @ Livorno L 0-1 1803 1745 18.5% 29.5% 51.9% -3.7 5
1938-11-27 AC Milan W 2-1 1752 1824 50.5% 29.7% 19.8% +3.7 6
1938-11-27 @ Novara L 1-2 1824 1752 19.8% 29.7% 50.5% -3.7 4
1938-11-27 Napoli W 3-0 1852 1786 63.1% 26.6% 10.3% +5.9 14
1938-11-27 @ Torino L 0-3 1786 1852 10.3% 26.6% 63.1% -5.9 8
1938-12-11 Torino D 0-0 1820 1858 54.0% 29.2% 16.8% -1.5 5
1938-12-11 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1858 1820 16.8% 29.2% 54.0% +1.5 15
1938-12-11 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1838 1820 59.2% 28.0% 12.8% +2.7 9
1938-12-11 @ Juventus L 0-1 1820 1838 12.8% 28.0% 59.2% -2.7 10
1938-12-11 Livorno W 2-1 1716 1749 54.5% 29.1% 16.4% +3.1 8
1938-12-11 @ Lucchese L 1-2 1749 1716 16.4% 29.1% 54.5% -3.2 6
1938-12-11 Bari L 0-2 1709 1745 54.1% 29.2% 16.6% -16.0 8
1938-12-11 @ Modena W 2-0 1745 1709 16.6% 29.2% 54.1% +16.0 10
1938-12-11 Inter Milan W 1-0 1781 1898 45.3% 30.0% 24.6% +4.6 10
1938-12-11 @ Napoli L 0-1 1898 1781 24.6% 30.0% 45.3% -4.6 13
1938-12-11 Genova 1893 W 3-1 1840 1841 57.5% 28.5% 14.1% +4.8 14
1938-12-11 @ Roma L 1-3 1841 1840 14.1% 28.5% 57.5% -4.8 10
1938-12-11 Novara W 3-1 1789 1756 60.5% 27.6% 11.9% +4.1 15
1938-12-11 @ Liguria L 1-3 1756 1789 11.9% 27.6% 60.5% -4.1 6
1938-12-11 Bologna D 1-1 1800 1857 52.0% 29.5% 18.4% -1.2 6
1938-12-11 @ Triestina D 1-1 1857 1800 18.4% 29.5% 52.0% +1.2 15
1938-12-18 Liguria D 0-0 1819 1793 59.8% 27.8% 12.4% -1.9 6
1938-12-18 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1793 1819 12.4% 27.8% 59.8% +1.9 16
1938-12-18 Roma W 3-1 1761 1845 49.2% 29.8% 21.0% +6.7 12
1938-12-18 @ Bari L 1-3 1845 1761 21.0% 29.8% 49.2% -6.7 14
1938-12-18 Lucchese D 2-2 1858 1719 68.6% 24.0% 7.4% -1.7 16
1938-12-18 @ Bologna D 2-2 1719 1858 7.4% 24.0% 68.6% +1.7 9
1938-12-18 Napoli W 3-1 1837 1785 62.0% 27.1% 11.0% +3.8 12
1938-12-18 @ Genova 1893 L 1-3 1785 1837 11.0% 27.1% 62.0% -3.8 10
1938-12-18 Triestina W 1-0 1817 1798 59.2% 28.0% 12.8% +2.7 12
1938-12-18 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1798 1817 12.8% 28.0% 59.2% -2.7 6
1938-12-18 Modena W 1-0 1746 1693 62.0% 27.1% 10.9% +2.3 8
1938-12-18 @ Livorno L 0-1 1693 1746 10.9% 27.1% 62.0% -2.3 8
1938-12-18 Juventus D 0-0 1752 1841 48.6% 29.9% 21.5% -1.0 7
1938-12-18 @ Novara D 0-0 1841 1752 21.5% 29.9% 48.6% +1.0 10
1938-12-18 Inter Milan W 2-1 1859 1893 54.4% 29.2% 16.5% +3.2 17
1938-12-18 @ Torino L 1-2 1893 1859 16.5% 29.2% 54.4% -3.2 13
1939-01-01 Genova 1893 W 1-0 1890 1840 61.8% 27.1% 11.1% +2.3 15
1939-01-01 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1840 1890 11.1% 27.1% 61.8% -2.3 12
1939-01-01 AC Milan D 2-2 1842 1817 59.8% 27.8% 12.4% -1.3 11
1939-01-01 @ Juventus D 2-2 1817 1842 12.4% 27.8% 59.8% +1.3 7
1939-01-01 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1721 1820 47.5% 29.9% 22.6% +4.1 11
1939-01-01 @ Lucchese L 1-2 1820 1721 22.6% 29.9% 47.5% -4.1 12
1939-01-01 Bologna D 1-1 1691 1856 39.2% 29.9% 30.8% -0.3 9
1939-01-01 @ Modena D 1-1 1856 1691 30.8% 29.9% 39.2% +0.3 17
1939-01-01 Bari D 1-1 1781 1768 58.7% 28.1% 13.1% -1.7 11
1939-01-01 @ Napoli D 1-1 1768 1781 13.1% 28.1% 58.7% +1.7 13
1939-01-01 Livorno W 4-1 1838 1748 65.0% 25.8% 9.2% +4.4 16
1939-01-01 @ Roma L 1-4 1748 1838 9.2% 25.8% 65.0% -4.4 8
1939-01-01 Torino W 2-1 1795 1862 51.0% 29.7% 19.4% +3.6 18
1939-01-01 @ Liguria L 1-2 1862 1795 19.4% 29.7% 51.0% -3.6 17
1939-01-01 Novara D 0-0 1796 1751 61.4% 27.3% 11.3% -2.1 7
1939-01-01 @ Triestina D 0-0 1751 1796 11.3% 27.3% 61.4% +2.1 8
1939-01-08 Triestina L 2-4 1818 1794 59.7% 27.9% 12.4% -13.5 7
1939-01-08 @ AC Milan W 4-2 1794 1818 12.4% 27.9% 59.7% +13.5 9
1939-01-08 Inter Milan W 4-1 1770 1892 44.7% 30.0% 25.3% +10.9 15
1939-01-08 @ Bari L 1-4 1892 1770 25.3% 30.0% 44.7% -10.9 15
1939-01-08 Roma W 1-0 1856 1843 58.8% 28.1% 13.1% +2.7 19
1939-01-08 @ Bologna L 0-1 1843 1856 13.1% 28.1% 58.8% -2.7 16
1939-01-08 Modena W 2-1 1816 1691 67.6% 24.6% 7.9% +1.5 14
1939-01-08 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1691 1816 7.9% 24.6% 67.6% -1.5 9
1939-01-08 Napoli W 2-0 1743 1780 54.1% 29.2% 16.7% +6.4 10
1939-01-08 @ Livorno L 0-2 1780 1743 16.7% 29.2% 54.1% -6.4 11
1939-01-08 Lucchese D 1-1 1753 1725 60.0% 27.8% 12.2% -1.7 9
1939-01-08 @ Novara D 1-1 1725 1753 12.2% 27.8% 60.0% +1.7 12
1939-01-08 Juventus D 1-1 1799 1840 53.6% 29.3% 17.1% -1.3 19
1939-01-08 @ Liguria D 1-1 1840 1799 17.1% 29.3% 53.6% +1.3 12
1939-01-08 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1859 1838 59.4% 28.0% 12.7% -9.2 17
1939-01-08 @ Torino W 1-0 1838 1859 12.7% 28.0% 59.4% +9.2 14
1939-01-15 Bari W 8-0 1847 1781 63.2% 26.6% 10.2% +14.8 16
1939-01-15 @ Genova 1893 L 0-8 1781 1847 10.2% 26.6% 63.2% -14.8 15
1939-01-15 Livorno W 3-1 1881 1750 68.0% 24.3% 7.6% +2.6 17
1939-01-15 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1750 1881 7.6% 24.3% 68.0% -2.6 10
1939-01-15 AC Milan L 1-2 1727 1805 49.8% 29.8% 20.4% -7.4 12
1939-01-15 @ Lucchese W 2-1 1805 1727 20.4% 29.8% 49.8% +7.4 9
1939-01-15 Novara D 1-1 1689 1751 51.5% 29.6% 18.9% -1.1 10
1939-01-15 @ Modena D 1-1 1751 1689 18.9% 29.6% 51.5% +1.1 10
1939-01-15 Bologna L 1-6 1773 1859 48.9% 29.8% 21.2% -28.3 11
1939-01-15 @ Napoli W 6-1 1859 1773 21.2% 29.8% 48.9% +28.3 21
1939-01-15 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1840 1817 59.6% 27.9% 12.5% -17.5 16
1939-01-15 @ Roma W 2-0 1817 1840 12.5% 27.9% 59.6% +17.5 16
1939-01-15 Juventus W 3-2 1850 1842 58.3% 28.3% 13.5% +2.5 19
1939-01-15 @ Torino L 2-3 1842 1850 13.5% 28.3% 58.3% -2.5 12
1939-01-15 Liguria L 0-2 1807 1798 58.4% 28.2% 13.4% -17.2 9
1939-01-15 @ Triestina W 2-0 1798 1807 13.4% 28.2% 58.4% +17.2 21
1939-01-22 Modena W 2-0 1812 1688 67.5% 24.6% 7.9% +3.1 11
1939-01-22 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1688 1812 7.9% 24.6% 67.5% -3.1 10
1939-01-22 Torino D 0-0 1766 1852 48.9% 29.9% 21.2% -1.0 16
1939-01-22 @ Bari D 0-0 1852 1766 21.2% 29.9% 48.9% +1.0 20
1939-01-22 Inter Milan D 1-1 1888 1884 57.9% 28.4% 13.7% -1.6 22
1939-01-22 @ Bologna D 1-1 1884 1888 13.7% 28.4% 57.9% +1.6 18
1939-01-22 Triestina W 2-1 1839 1790 61.8% 27.1% 11.1% +2.2 14
1939-01-22 @ Juventus L 1-2 1790 1839 11.1% 27.1% 61.8% -2.2 9
1939-01-22 Napoli D 0-0 1835 1745 65.0% 25.8% 9.2% -2.3 17
1939-01-22 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1745 1835 9.2% 25.8% 65.0% +2.3 12
1939-01-22 Genova 1893 D 2-2 1747 1862 45.6% 30.0% 24.4% -0.5 11
1939-01-22 @ Livorno D 2-2 1862 1747 24.4% 30.0% 45.6% +0.5 17
1939-01-22 Roma W 5-0 1752 1823 50.6% 29.7% 19.7% +17.2 12
1939-01-22 @ Novara L 0-5 1823 1752 19.7% 29.7% 50.6% -17.2 16
1939-01-22 Lucchese D 1-1 1815 1719 65.4% 25.6% 9.0% -2.1 22
1939-01-22 @ Liguria D 1-1 1719 1815 9.0% 25.6% 65.4% +2.1 13
1939-01-29 Roma L 0-1 1815 1805 58.4% 28.2% 13.4% -9.1 11
1939-01-29 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1805 1815 13.4% 28.2% 58.4% +9.1 18
1939-01-29 Genova 1893 W 3-0 1886 1863 59.6% 27.9% 12.5% +7.2 24
1939-01-29 @ Bologna L 0-3 1863 1886 12.5% 27.9% 59.6% -7.2 17
1939-01-29 Lucchese D 1-1 1841 1721 67.2% 24.7% 8.0% -2.2 15
1939-01-29 @ Juventus D 1-1 1721 1841 8.0% 24.7% 67.2% +2.2 14
1939-01-29 Inter Milan L 1-2 1832 1885 52.4% 29.5% 18.1% -7.8 17
1939-01-29 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1885 1832 18.1% 29.5% 52.4% +7.8 20
1939-01-29 Bari W 3-0 1747 1765 55.9% 28.9% 15.2% +8.6 13
1939-01-29 @ Livorno L 0-3 1765 1747 15.2% 28.9% 55.9% -8.6 16
1939-01-29 Napoli D 0-0 1769 1747 59.5% 27.9% 12.6% -1.9 13
1939-01-29 @ Novara D 0-0 1747 1769 12.6% 27.9% 59.5% +1.9 13
1939-01-29 Modena W 1-0 1813 1685 67.8% 24.4% 7.8% +1.6 24
1939-01-29 @ Liguria L 0-1 1685 1813 7.8% 24.4% 67.8% -1.6 10
1939-01-29 Torino W 3-1 1788 1853 51.2% 29.6% 19.2% +6.2 11
1939-01-29 @ Triestina L 1-3 1853 1788 19.2% 29.6% 51.2% -6.2 20
1939-02-05 Bologna D 2-2 1756 1893 42.9% 30.0% 27.1% -0.4 17
1939-02-05 @ Bari D 2-2 1893 1756 27.1% 30.0% 42.9% +0.4 25
1939-02-05 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1855 1825 60.2% 27.7% 12.1% +2.4 19
1939-02-05 @ Genova 1893 L 1-2 1825 1855 12.1% 27.7% 60.2% -2.4 17
1939-02-05 Novara W 3-1 1893 1768 67.6% 24.5% 7.8% +2.6 22
1939-02-05 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1768 1893 7.8% 24.5% 67.6% -2.6 13
1939-02-05 Triestina W 1-0 1724 1794 50.6% 29.7% 19.7% +3.9 16
1939-02-05 @ Lucchese L 0-1 1794 1724 19.7% 29.7% 50.6% -3.9 11
1939-02-05 Juventus W 2-0 1683 1839 40.5% 30.0% 29.5% +9.9 12
1939-02-05 @ Modena L 0-2 1839 1683 29.5% 30.0% 40.5% -9.9 15
1939-02-05 AC Milan W 1-0 1749 1806 52.1% 29.5% 18.4% +3.7 15
1939-02-05 @ Napoli L 0-1 1806 1749 18.4% 29.5% 52.1% -3.7 11
1939-02-05 Liguria W 1-0 1815 1814 57.6% 28.5% 14.0% +2.9 20
1939-02-05 @ Roma L 0-1 1814 1815 14.0% 28.5% 57.6% -2.9 24
1939-02-05 Livorno W 3-2 1847 1755 65.1% 25.8% 9.1% +1.7 22
1939-02-05 @ Torino L 2-3 1755 1847 9.1% 25.8% 65.1% -1.7 13
1939-02-12 Inter Milan W 3-1 1802 1896 48.1% 29.9% 22.0% +6.9 13
1939-02-12 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1896 1802 22.0% 29.9% 48.1% -6.9 22
1939-02-12 Livorno D 1-1 1894 1754 68.7% 24.0% 7.4% -2.3 26
1939-02-12 @ Bologna D 1-1 1754 1894 7.4% 24.0% 68.7% +2.3 14
1939-02-12 Roma D 0-0 1829 1817 58.6% 28.2% 13.2% -1.8 16
1939-02-12 @ Juventus D 0-0 1817 1829 13.2% 28.2% 58.6% +1.8 21
1939-02-12 Bari W 1-0 1822 1756 63.2% 26.6% 10.2% +2.2 19
1939-02-12 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1756 1822 10.2% 26.6% 63.2% -2.2 17
1939-02-12 Torino D 1-1 1728 1849 44.9% 30.0% 25.1% -0.6 17
1939-02-12 @ Lucchese D 1-1 1849 1728 25.1% 30.0% 44.9% +0.7 23
1939-02-12 Genova 1893 D 0-0 1765 1858 48.2% 29.9% 21.9% -1.0 14
1939-02-12 @ Novara D 0-0 1858 1765 21.9% 29.9% 48.2% +1.0 20
1939-02-12 Napoli W 2-0 1811 1753 62.5% 26.9% 10.6% +4.2 26
1939-02-12 @ Liguria L 0-2 1753 1811 10.6% 26.9% 62.5% -4.2 15
1939-02-12 Modena D 0-0 1790 1693 65.5% 25.6% 8.9% -2.4 12
1939-02-12 @ Triestina D 0-0 1693 1790 8.9% 25.6% 65.5% +2.4 13
1939-02-19 Novara W 1-0 1754 1764 56.6% 28.7% 14.7% +3.0 19
1939-02-19 @ Bari L 0-1 1764 1754 14.7% 28.7% 56.6% -3.0 14
1939-02-19 AC Milan W 2-0 1859 1809 61.8% 27.1% 11.1% +4.4 22
1939-02-19 @ Genova 1893 L 0-2 1809 1859 11.1% 27.1% 61.8% -4.4 13
1939-02-19 Liguria W 5-2 1889 1816 63.7% 26.4% 9.9% +4.2 24
1939-02-19 @ Inter Milan L 2-5 1816 1889 9.9% 26.4% 63.7% -4.2 26
1939-02-19 Lazio Roma L 2-3 1756 1824 50.8% 29.7% 19.5% -7.2 14
1939-02-19 @ Livorno W 3-2 1824 1756 19.5% 29.7% 50.8% +7.2 21
1939-02-19 Lucchese L 0-1 1696 1727 54.6% 29.1% 16.3% -8.6 13
1939-02-19 @ Modena W 1-0 1727 1696 16.3% 29.1% 54.6% +8.6 19
1939-02-19 Juventus W 4-1 1749 1827 49.7% 29.8% 20.5% +9.3 17
1939-02-19 @ Napoli L 1-4 1827 1749 20.5% 29.8% 49.7% -9.3 16
1939-02-19 Triestina L 1-2 1819 1788 60.3% 27.7% 12.0% -8.8 21
1939-02-19 @ Roma W 2-1 1788 1819 12.0% 27.7% 60.3% +8.8 14
1939-02-19 Bologna D 1-1 1849 1891 53.6% 29.3% 17.1% -1.3 24
1939-02-19 @ Torino D 1-1 1891 1849 17.1% 29.3% 53.6% +1.3 27
1939-02-26 Bari W 3-1 1805 1757 61.7% 27.2% 11.1% +3.8 15
1939-02-26 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1757 1805 11.1% 27.2% 61.7% -3.8 19
1939-02-26 Inter Milan D 0-0 1818 1893 50.1% 29.8% 20.1% -1.2 17
1939-02-26 @ Juventus D 0-0 1893 1818 20.1% 29.8% 50.1% +1.1 25
1939-02-26 Bologna L 1-2 1832 1893 51.6% 29.6% 18.8% -7.7 21
1939-02-26 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1893 1832 18.8% 29.6% 51.6% +7.7 29
1939-02-26 Roma L 1-4 1736 1810 50.1% 29.8% 20.1% -18.3 19
1939-02-26 @ Lucchese W 4-1 1810 1736 20.1% 29.8% 50.1% +18.3 23
1939-02-26 Torino L 0-1 1687 1848 39.8% 29.9% 30.2% -6.5 13
1939-02-26 @ Modena W 1-0 1848 1687 30.2% 29.9% 39.8% +6.5 26
1939-02-26 Livorno W 2-1 1761 1749 58.6% 28.2% 13.2% +2.6 16
1939-02-26 @ Novara L 1-2 1749 1761 13.2% 28.2% 58.6% -2.6 14
1939-02-26 Genova 1893 W 1-0 1811 1863 52.6% 29.5% 18.0% +3.6 28
1939-02-26 @ Liguria L 0-1 1863 1811 18.0% 29.5% 52.6% -3.6 22
1939-02-26 Napoli D 0-0 1797 1758 60.9% 27.5% 11.6% -2.0 15
1939-02-26 @ Triestina D 0-0 1758 1797 11.6% 27.5% 60.9% +2.0 18
1939-03-05 Liguria W 2-1 1753 1815 51.5% 29.6% 18.9% +3.6 21
1939-03-05 @ Bari L 1-2 1815 1753 18.9% 29.6% 51.5% -3.6 28
1939-03-05 Novara W 3-0 1900 1763 68.4% 24.1% 7.5% +4.2 31
1939-03-05 @ Bologna L 0-3 1763 1900 7.5% 24.1% 68.4% -4.2 16
1939-03-05 Juventus W 3-2 1860 1817 61.2% 27.3% 11.4% +2.2 24
1939-03-05 @ Genova 1893 L 2-3 1817 1860 11.4% 27.3% 61.2% -2.2 17
1939-03-05 Triestina D 0-0 1894 1795 65.7% 25.5% 8.8% -2.4 26
1939-03-05 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1795 1894 8.8% 25.5% 65.7% +2.4 16
1939-03-05 AC Milan L 0-2 1746 1809 51.5% 29.6% 18.9% -15.3 14
1939-03-05 @ Livorno W 2-0 1809 1746 18.9% 29.6% 51.5% +15.3 17
1939-03-05 Lucchese W 3-1 1760 1717 61.3% 27.3% 11.4% +3.9 20
1939-03-05 @ Napoli L 1-3 1717 1760 11.4% 27.3% 61.3% -3.9 19
1939-03-05 Modena L 0-1 1829 1680 69.2% 23.6% 7.1% -10.5 23
1939-03-05 @ Roma W 1-0 1680 1829 7.1% 23.6% 69.2% +10.5 15
1939-03-05 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1854 1824 60.2% 27.7% 12.1% +4.2 28
1939-03-05 @ Torino L 1-3 1824 1854 12.1% 27.7% 60.2% -4.1 21
1939-03-12 Bologna L 0-1 1824 1904 49.5% 29.8% 20.6% -7.8 17
1939-03-12 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1904 1824 20.6% 29.8% 49.5% +7.8 33
1939-03-12 Bari W 3-0 1815 1756 62.5% 26.9% 10.6% +6.1 19
1939-03-12 @ Juventus L 0-3 1756 1815 10.6% 26.9% 62.5% -6.1 21
1939-03-12 Inter Milan D 1-1 1713 1892 37.5% 29.8% 32.7% -0.2 20
1939-03-12 @ Lucchese D 1-1 1892 1713 32.7% 29.8% 37.5% +0.2 27
1939-03-12 Napoli W 2-1 1691 1764 50.4% 29.7% 19.9% +3.7 17
1939-03-12 @ Modena L 1-2 1764 1691 19.9% 29.7% 50.4% -3.7 20
1939-03-12 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1759 1820 51.7% 29.6% 18.7% +7.1 18
1939-03-12 @ Novara L 0-2 1820 1759 18.7% 29.6% 51.7% -7.1 21
1939-03-12 Torino W 2-0 1818 1859 53.7% 29.3% 17.0% +6.5 25
1939-03-12 @ Roma L 0-2 1859 1818 17.0% 29.3% 53.7% -6.5 28
1939-03-12 Livorno D 3-3 1811 1731 64.3% 26.1% 9.6% -1.3 29
1939-03-12 @ Liguria D 3-3 1731 1811 9.6% 26.1% 64.3% +1.2 15
1939-03-12 Genova 1893 D 1-1 1797 1862 51.2% 29.6% 19.1% -1.1 17
1939-03-12 @ Triestina D 1-1 1862 1797 19.1% 29.6% 51.2% +1.1 25
1939-03-19 Triestina D 0-0 1750 1796 53.2% 29.4% 17.4% -1.4 22
1939-03-19 @ Bari D 0-0 1796 1750 17.4% 29.4% 53.2% +1.4 18
1939-03-19 Liguria D 1-1 1912 1810 65.9% 25.4% 8.7% -2.1 34
1939-03-19 @ Bologna D 1-1 1810 1912 8.7% 25.4% 65.9% +2.1 30
1939-03-19 Lucchese W 4-1 1863 1713 69.3% 23.6% 7.0% +3.3 27
1939-03-19 @ Genova 1893 L 1-4 1713 1863 7.0% 23.6% 69.3% -3.3 20
1939-03-19 Modena W 4-2 1892 1695 72.6% 21.7% 5.7% +1.6 29
1939-03-19 @ Inter Milan L 2-4 1695 1892 5.7% 21.7% 72.6% -1.6 17
1939-03-19 AC Milan D 2-2 1813 1816 57.2% 28.5% 14.2% -1.1 22
1939-03-19 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1816 1813 14.2% 28.5% 57.2% +1.2 18
1939-03-19 Juventus W 1-0 1732 1821 48.6% 29.9% 21.5% +4.2 17
1939-03-19 @ Livorno L 0-1 1821 1732 21.5% 29.9% 48.6% -4.2 19
1939-03-19 Roma W 1-0 1760 1825 51.2% 29.6% 19.1% +3.8 22
1939-03-19 @ Napoli L 0-1 1825 1760 19.1% 29.6% 51.2% -3.8 25
1939-03-19 Novara D 1-1 1852 1766 64.7% 26.0% 9.4% -2.0 29
1939-03-19 @ Torino D 1-1 1766 1852 9.4% 26.0% 64.7% +2.1 19
1939-04-02 Novara W 2-1 1817 1768 61.8% 27.2% 11.1% +2.2 20
1939-04-02 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1768 1817 11.1% 27.2% 61.8% -2.2 19
1939-04-02 Bologna W 1-0 1817 1910 48.1% 29.9% 22.0% +4.2 21
1939-04-02 @ Juventus L 0-1 1910 1817 22.0% 29.9% 48.1% -4.2 34
1939-04-02 Bari D 0-0 1710 1749 53.9% 29.2% 16.9% -1.5 21
1939-04-02 @ Lucchese D 0-0 1749 1710 16.9% 29.2% 53.9% +1.5 23
1939-04-02 Genova 1893 D 0-0 1693 1866 38.2% 29.9% 31.9% -0.2 18
1939-04-02 @ Modena D 0-0 1866 1693 31.9% 29.9% 38.2% +0.2 28
1939-04-02 Torino D 0-0 1764 1850 48.9% 29.8% 21.2% -1.0 23
1939-04-02 @ Napoli D 0-0 1850 1764 21.2% 29.8% 48.9% +1.0 30
1939-04-02 Inter Milan L 2-3 1821 1894 50.4% 29.7% 19.9% -7.1 25
1939-04-02 @ Roma W 3-2 1894 1821 19.9% 29.7% 50.4% +7.1 31
1939-04-02 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1812 1811 57.6% 28.4% 13.9% -9.0 30
1939-04-02 @ Liguria W 1-0 1811 1812 13.9% 28.4% 57.6% +9.0 24
1939-04-02 Livorno W 2-0 1797 1736 62.7% 26.8% 10.5% +4.2 20
1939-04-02 @ Triestina L 0-2 1736 1797 10.5% 26.8% 62.7% -4.2 17
1939-04-09 Modena W 1-0 1750 1693 62.5% 26.9% 10.7% +2.2 25
1939-04-09 @ Bari L 0-1 1693 1750 10.7% 26.9% 62.5% -2.2 18
1939-04-09 Triestina W 2-0 1906 1801 66.1% 25.3% 8.6% +3.4 36
1939-04-09 @ Bologna L 0-2 1801 1906 8.6% 25.3% 66.1% -3.4 20
1939-04-09 Roma W 2-0 1866 1814 62.0% 27.0% 10.9% +4.3 30
1939-04-09 @ Genova 1893 L 0-2 1814 1866 10.9% 27.0% 62.0% -4.3 25
1939-04-09 Napoli L 1-2 1901 1763 68.5% 24.1% 7.4% -9.8 31
1939-04-09 @ Inter Milan W 2-1 1763 1901 7.4% 24.1% 68.5% +9.8 25
1939-04-09 Juventus D 1-1 1820 1821 57.5% 28.5% 14.0% -1.6 25
1939-04-09 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1821 1820 14.0% 28.5% 57.5% +1.6 22
1939-04-09 Lucchese W 1-0 1732 1708 59.7% 27.9% 12.5% +2.6 19
1939-04-09 @ Livorno L 0-1 1708 1732 12.5% 27.9% 59.7% -2.6 21
1939-04-09 Liguria W 1-0 1766 1803 54.1% 29.2% 16.7% +3.4 21
1939-04-09 @ Novara L 0-1 1803 1766 16.7% 29.2% 54.1% -3.4 30
1939-04-09 AC Milan W 3-2 1851 1819 60.3% 27.7% 12.0% +2.3 32
1939-04-09 @ Torino L 2-3 1819 1851 12.0% 27.7% 60.3% -2.3 20
1939-04-16 Torino D 1-1 1891 1853 60.8% 27.5% 11.7% -1.8 32
1939-04-16 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1853 1891 11.7% 27.5% 60.8% +1.8 33
1939-04-16 Novara W 1-0 1823 1770 62.1% 27.0% 10.9% +2.3 24
1939-04-16 @ Juventus L 0-1 1770 1823 10.9% 27.0% 62.1% -2.3 21
1939-04-16 Bologna D 1-1 1706 1909 34.1% 29.5% 36.4% +0.1 22
1939-04-16 @ Lucchese D 1-1 1909 1706 36.4% 29.5% 34.1% -0.1 37
1939-04-16 Livorno W 3-2 1691 1735 53.3% 29.3% 17.3% +3.1 20
1939-04-16 @ Modena L 2-3 1735 1691 17.3% 29.3% 53.3% -3.1 19
1939-04-16 Genova 1893 W 2-0 1773 1871 47.6% 29.9% 22.5% +8.1 27
1939-04-16 @ Napoli L 0-2 1871 1773 22.5% 29.9% 47.6% -8.1 30
1939-04-16 Bari W 2-0 1810 1752 62.4% 26.9% 10.7% +4.2 27
1939-04-16 @ Roma L 0-2 1752 1810 10.7% 26.9% 62.4% -4.2 25
1939-04-16 AC Milan L 0-1 1800 1817 56.0% 28.8% 15.2% -8.8 30
1939-04-16 @ Liguria W 1-0 1817 1800 15.2% 28.8% 56.0% +8.8 22
1939-04-16 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1798 1819 55.6% 28.9% 15.4% +6.0 22
1939-04-16 @ Triestina L 0-2 1819 1798 15.4% 28.9% 55.6% -6.0 25
1939-04-21 Juventus D 0-0 1826 1825 57.7% 28.4% 13.9% -1.8 23
1939-04-21 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1825 1826 13.9% 28.4% 57.7% +1.8 25
1939-04-21 Napoli D 1-1 1748 1781 54.5% 29.1% 16.4% -1.3 26
1939-04-21 @ Bari D 1-1 1781 1748 16.4% 29.1% 54.5% +1.3 28
1939-04-21 Modena D 1-1 1909 1694 73.8% 20.9% 5.3% -2.5 38
1939-04-21 @ Bologna D 1-1 1694 1909 5.3% 20.9% 73.8% +2.5 21
1939-04-21 Inter Milan W 3-0 1863 1889 55.1% 29.0% 15.9% +8.9 32
1939-04-21 @ Genova 1893 L 0-3 1889 1863 15.9% 29.0% 55.1% -9.0 32
1939-04-21 Lucchese W 5-0 1813 1706 66.3% 25.2% 8.5% +7.8 27
1939-04-21 @ Lazio Roma L 0-5 1706 1813 8.5% 25.2% 66.3% -7.8 22
1939-04-21 Roma W 3-1 1732 1814 49.4% 29.8% 20.8% +6.7 21
1939-04-21 @ Livorno L 1-3 1814 1732 20.8% 29.8% 49.4% -6.6 27
1939-04-21 Triestina W 1-0 1767 1804 54.1% 29.2% 16.7% +3.4 23
1939-04-21 @ Novara L 0-1 1804 1767 16.7% 29.2% 54.1% -3.4 22
1939-04-21 Liguria W 1-0 1855 1791 63.0% 26.7% 10.3% +2.2 35
1939-04-21 @ Torino L 0-1 1791 1855 10.3% 26.7% 63.0% -2.2 30
1939-04-30 Torino W 6-1 1871 1857 58.8% 28.1% 13.1% +10.0 34
1939-04-30 @ Genova 1893 L 1-6 1857 1871 13.1% 28.1% 58.8% -10.0 35
1939-04-30 Bari W 5-3 1880 1747 68.2% 24.2% 7.6% +2.2 34
1939-04-30 @ Inter Milan L 3-5 1747 1880 7.6% 24.2% 68.2% -2.2 26
1939-04-30 Liguria W 2-1 1827 1789 60.8% 27.5% 11.7% +2.3 27
1939-04-30 @ Juventus L 1-2 1789 1827 11.7% 27.5% 60.8% -2.3 30
1939-04-30 Novara L 0-1 1698 1771 50.4% 29.7% 19.9% -8.0 22
1939-04-30 @ Lucchese W 1-0 1771 1698 19.9% 29.7% 50.4% +8.0 25
1939-04-30 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1696 1821 44.4% 30.0% 25.5% +17.0 23
1939-04-30 @ Modena L 0-4 1821 1696 25.5% 30.0% 44.4% -17.0 27
1939-04-30 Livorno W 3-1 1782 1738 61.4% 27.3% 11.3% +3.9 30
1939-04-30 @ Napoli L 1-3 1738 1782 11.3% 27.3% 61.4% -3.9 21
1939-04-30 Bologna L 0-1 1807 1907 47.4% 29.9% 22.7% -7.6 27
1939-04-30 @ Roma W 1-0 1907 1807 22.7% 29.9% 47.4% +7.5 40
1939-04-30 AC Milan L 0-1 1801 1824 55.4% 29.0% 15.7% -8.7 22
1939-04-30 @ Triestina W 1-0 1824 1801 15.7% 29.0% 55.4% +8.7 25
1939-05-21 Lucchese W 1-0 1833 1690 68.9% 23.9% 7.3% +1.5 27
1939-05-21 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1690 1833 7.3% 23.9% 68.9% -1.5 22
1939-05-21 Genova 1893 D 0-0 1745 1881 42.9% 30.0% 27.0% -0.6 27
1939-05-21 @ Bari D 0-0 1881 1745 27.0% 30.0% 42.9% +0.6 35
1939-05-21 Napoli W 4-0 1914 1786 67.8% 24.4% 7.8% +5.7 42
1939-05-21 @ Bologna L 0-4 1786 1914 7.8% 24.4% 67.8% -5.7 30
1939-05-21 Torino D 1-1 1829 1847 55.9% 28.9% 15.3% -1.5 28
1939-05-21 @ Juventus D 1-1 1847 1829 15.3% 28.9% 55.9% +1.4 36
1939-05-21 Roma L 1-3 1804 1800 57.9% 28.4% 13.7% -14.8 27
1939-05-21 @ Lazio Roma W 3-1 1800 1804 13.7% 28.4% 57.9% +14.7 29
1939-05-21 Inter Milan D 2-2 1734 1882 41.5% 30.0% 28.5% -0.3 22
1939-05-21 @ Livorno D 2-2 1882 1734 28.5% 30.0% 41.5% +0.3 35
1939-05-21 Modena D 0-0 1779 1713 63.1% 26.6% 10.3% -2.2 26
1939-05-21 @ Novara D 0-0 1713 1779 10.3% 26.6% 63.1% +2.2 24
1939-05-21 Triestina D 2-2 1787 1792 57.1% 28.6% 14.3% -1.1 31
1939-05-21 @ Liguria D 2-2 1792 1787 14.3% 28.6% 57.1% +1.2 23
1939-05-28 Livorno L 0-1 1882 1734 69.2% 23.7% 7.1% -10.5 35
1939-05-28 @ Genova 1893 W 1-0 1734 1882 7.1% 23.7% 69.2% +10.5 24
1939-05-28 Bologna W 2-0 1883 1920 54.0% 29.2% 16.7% +6.4 37
1939-05-28 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1920 1883 16.7% 29.2% 54.0% -6.4 42
1939-05-28 Liguria W 3-1 1689 1785 47.7% 29.9% 22.4% +7.0 24
1939-05-28 @ Lucchese L 1-3 1785 1689 22.4% 29.9% 47.7% -7.0 31
1939-05-28 AC Milan D 2-2 1715 1834 45.1% 30.0% 24.9% -0.5 25
1939-05-28 @ Modena D 2-2 1834 1715 24.9% 30.0% 45.1% +0.5 28
1939-05-28 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1780 1789 56.8% 28.7% 14.6% -1.7 31
1939-05-28 @ Napoli D 0-0 1789 1780 14.6% 28.7% 56.8% +1.7 28
1939-05-28 Novara W 3-0 1814 1776 60.8% 27.5% 11.7% +6.8 31
1939-05-28 @ Roma L 0-3 1776 1814 11.7% 27.5% 60.8% -6.7 26
1939-05-28 Bari W 2-1 1849 1744 66.1% 25.3% 8.6% +1.7 38
1939-05-28 @ Torino L 1-2 1744 1849 8.6% 25.3% 66.1% -1.7 27
1939-05-28 Juventus D 1-1 1793 1828 54.3% 29.2% 16.5% -1.3 24
1939-05-28 @ Triestina D 1-1 1828 1793 16.5% 29.2% 54.3% +1.3 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1939-03-05 7.10% Modena 1680 1 @ Roma 1829 0
2 1939-05-28 7.11% Livorno 1734 1 @ Genova 1893 1882 0
3 1939-04-09 7.43% Napoli 1763 2 @ Inter Milan 1901 1
4 1938-11-06 9.16% Modena 1704 1 @ Napoli 1795 0
5 1938-10-16 10.54% Liguria 1779 1 @ Genova 1893 1839 0
6 1939-02-19 12.04% Triestina 1788 2 @ Roma 1819 1
7 1938-10-09 12.37% Torino 1824 3 @ Bologna 1850 0
8 1939-01-08 12.44% Triestina 1794 4 @ AC Milan 1818 2
9 1938-11-06 12.53% Roma 1830 1 @ Torino 1853 0
10 1939-01-15 12.54% Lazio Roma 1817 2 @ Roma 1840 0
11 1939-01-08 12.66% Genova 1893 1838 1 @ Torino 1859 0
12 1938-10-16 13.17% Novara 1759 2 @ Livorno 1771 0
13 1939-01-15 13.35% Liguria 1798 2 @ Triestina 1807 0
14 1939-01-29 13.35% Roma 1805 1 @ AC Milan 1815 0
15 1939-05-21 13.70% Roma 1800 3 @ Lazio Roma 1804 1
16 1938-10-09 13.90% Genova 1893 1831 2 @ AC Milan 1832 1
17 1939-04-02 13.92% Lazio Roma 1811 1 @ Liguria 1812 0
18 1938-10-09 14.28% Roma 1826 1 @ Triestina 1821 0
19 1938-09-18 14.64% Bologna 1847 3 @ Genova 1893 1838 2
20 1939-04-16 15.19% AC Milan 1817 1 @ Liguria 1800 0
21 1939-04-30 15.65% AC Milan 1824 1 @ Triestina 1801 0
22 1939-02-19 16.26% Lucchese 1727 1 @ Modena 1696 0
23 1938-11-06 16.62% Liguria 1791 1 @ Livorno 1755 0
24 1938-12-11 16.64% Bari 1745 2 @ Modena 1709 0
25 1938-11-13 17.51% Bologna 1846 2 @ Liguria 1800 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-01-15 28.34 Bologna 6 1859 21.21% @ Napoli 1 1773 48.94% 29.85%
2 1938-10-09 25.45 Torino 3 1824 12.37% @ Bologna 0 1850 59.82% 27.82%
3 1939-02-26 18.32 Roma 4 1810 20.11% @ Lucchese 1 1736 50.15% 29.75%
4 1939-01-15 17.46 Lazio Roma 2 1817 12.54% @ Roma 0 1840 59.57% 27.89%
5 1938-10-16 17.22 Novara 2 1759 13.17% @ Livorno 0 1771 58.67% 28.16%
6 1939-01-22 17.17 @ Novara 5 1752 50.65% Roma 0 1823 19.66% 29.70%
7 1939-01-15 17.16 Liguria 2 1798 13.35% @ Triestina 0 1807 58.42% 28.23%
8 1939-04-30 16.99 @ Modena 4 1696 44.44% Lazio Roma 0 1821 25.52% 30.04%
9 1938-12-11 16.02 Bari 2 1745 16.64% @ Modena 0 1709 54.15% 29.20%
10 1939-03-05 15.30 AC Milan 2 1809 18.93% @ Livorno 0 1746 51.47% 29.60%
11 1939-01-15 14.84 @ Genova 1893 8 1847 63.18% Bari 0 1781 10.22% 26.60%
12 1939-05-21 14.75 Roma 3 1800 13.70% @ Lazio Roma 1 1804 57.93% 28.37%
13 1939-01-08 13.55 Triestina 4 1794 12.44% @ AC Milan 2 1818 59.71% 27.85%
14 1938-10-30 13.45 Bologna 3 1830 18.20% @ Novara 1 1776 52.31% 29.49%
15 1938-10-16 11.57 @ Inter Milan 5 1875 59.65% Juventus 0 1851 12.48% 27.87%
16 1939-01-08 10.89 @ Bari 4 1770 44.69% Inter Milan 1 1892 25.28% 30.03%
17 1939-03-05 10.45 Modena 1 1680 7.10% @ Roma 0 1829 69.25% 23.65%
18 1939-05-28 10.45 Livorno 1 1734 7.11% @ Genova 1893 0 1882 69.23% 23.66%
19 1939-04-30 10.00 @ Genova 1893 6 1871 58.82% Torino 1 1857 13.06% 28.12%
20 1938-11-06 9.97 Modena 1 1704 9.16% @ Napoli 0 1795 65.05% 25.79%
21 1939-02-05 9.94 @ Modena 2 1683 40.48% Juventus 0 1839 29.54% 29.98%
22 1939-04-09 9.78 Napoli 2 1763 7.43% @ Inter Milan 1 1901 68.51% 24.06%
23 1938-10-16 9.67 Liguria 1 1779 10.54% @ Genova 1893 0 1839 62.65% 26.81%
24 1938-10-30 9.61 @ Modena 2 1695 41.85% Roma 0 1840 28.13% 30.02%
25 1939-02-19 9.29 @ Napoli 4 1749 49.73% Juventus 1 1827 20.48% 29.79%