1938-39 Serie A Season

240 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Bologna

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bologna

7.93 points above expected

42 points · 34.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Triestina

5.91 points below expected

24 points · 29.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bologna	30	16	10	4	42	53	31	+22	34.1	+7.93
2	Torino	30	14	10	6	38	45	34	+11	32.6	+5.44
3	Inter Milan	30	14	9	7	37	55	37	+18	34.0	+2.98
4	Genova 1893	30	14	7	9	35	53	30	+23	33.6	+1.44
5	Roma	30	14	3	13	31	39	35	+4	30.9	+0.11
6	Sampdoria	30	12	7	11	31	35	34	+1	30.3	+0.69
7	Napoli	30	10	11	9	31	30	35	-5	28.5	+2.53
8	Juventus	30	8	13	9	29	28	34	-6	31.0	-1.99
9	AC Milan	30	10	8	12	28	36	34	+2	30.5	-2.51
10	Lazio Roma	30	11	6	13	28	33	40	-7	31.3	-3.33
11	Bari	30	9	9	12	27	33	46	-13	28.2	-1.19
12	Novara	30	9	8	13	26	27	32	-5	27.6	-1.57
13	Modena	30	8	9	13	25	32	40	-8	25.0	+0.02
14	Triestina	30	7	10	13	24	23	28	-5	29.9	-5.91
15	Livorno	30	9	6	15	24	40	49	-9	27.3	-3.26
16	Lucchese	30	7	10	13	24	31	54	-23	25.4	-1.38

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Bologna	1919	42	34.07	+7.93	97.0%	25	27	31	34	36	41	45
Inter Milan	1885	37	34.02	+2.98	74.0%	23	25	31	34	38	40	43
Genova 1893	1875	35	33.56	+1.44	65.0%	21	25	30	34	37	41	45
Torino	1856	38	32.56	+5.44	92.0%	24	26	30	32	35	40	43
AC Milan	1831	28	30.51	-2.51	28.0%	22	25	28	31	32	37	41
Roma	1821	31	30.89	+0.11	53.0%	20	25	27	31	34	37	43
Juventus	1819	29	30.99	-1.99	34.0%	24	25	28	30	33	37	41
Lazio Roma	1784	28	31.33	-3.33	22.0%	19	26	29	31	33	38	44
Sampdoria	1782	31	30.31	+0.69	63.0%	21	23	27	31	33	38	40
Triestina	1782	24	29.91	-5.91	12.0%	22	24	27	29	33	37	39
Napoli	1779	31	28.47	+2.53	75.0%	18	20	26	29	31	35	37
Novara	1771	26	27.57	-1.57	38.0%	14	20	25	28	30	35	37
Bari	1744	27	28.19	-1.19	45.0%	19	21	25	28	31	35	38
Livorno	1740	24	27.26	-3.26	27.0%	16	20	24	27	30	34	38
Modena	1732	25	24.98	+0.02	55.0%	14	19	22	25	28	31	33
Lucchese	1696	24	25.38	-1.38	43.0%	14	18	23	25	28	32	37

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	BAR	BOL	G1	IM	JUV	LR	LIV	LUC	MOD	NAP	NOV	ROM	SAM	TOR	TRI
AC Milan	—	1-0-1 2.98	0-0-2 2.42	0-0-2 2.62	1-0-1 2.35	0-2-0 2.72	1-1-0 2.70	1-1-0 3.05	2-0-0 3.20	1-1-0 3.25	0-1-1 2.98	1-0-1 3.02	0-0-2 2.80	1-1-0 2.77	0-1-1 2.49	1-0-1 2.88
Bari	1-0-1 2.53	—	0-1-1 2.16	0-1-1 2.19	1-0-1 2.20	0-1-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.79	0-2-0 2.94	2-0-0 2.92	0-2-0 2.67	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 2.60
Bologna	2-0-0 3.09	1-1-0 3.36	—	2-0-0 2.82	0-1-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 2.87	0-1-1 3.31	0-2-0 3.74	0-2-0 3.61	2-0-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.16	2-0-0 3.08	1-1-0 3.03	0-1-1 2.88	1-1-0 3.18
Genova 1893	2-0-0 2.90	1-1-0 3.31	0-0-2 2.69	—	1-0-1 2.60	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 3.46	2-0-0 3.33	1-1-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.17	1-1-0 3.17	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.97	2-0-0 2.71	0-2-0 3.06
Inter Milan	1-0-1 3.15	1-0-1 3.33	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.92	—	1-1-0 3.05	1-1-0 2.95	1-1-0 3.51	1-1-0 3.63	1-1-0 3.62	0-0-2 3.38	2-0-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.08	1-0-1 3.13	0-1-1 2.87	1-1-0 3.22
Juventus	0-2-0 2.80	1-1-0 3.03	1-0-1 2.36	0-1-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.45	—	1-1-0 2.75	1-0-1 3.19	0-1-1 3.29	0-1-1 3.43	1-0-1 3.06	1-1-0 3.07	0-1-1 2.81	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.60	1-1-0 2.96
Lazio Roma	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 3.09	0-0-2 2.62	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.76	—	2-0-0 3.08	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 3.30	0-2-0 2.98	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.71	2-0-0 2.74	0-1-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.89
Livorno	0-1-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.71	1-1-0 2.23	1-1-0 2.08	0-1-1 2.02	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 2.43	—	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.52	0-0-2 2.74	1-0-1 2.30	0-1-1 2.41	0-1-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.47
Lucchese	0-0-2 2.34	0-2-0 2.57	0-2-0 1.80	0-0-2 2.21	0-1-1 1.91	1-1-0 2.23	1-0-1 2.29	1-0-1 2.68	—	2-0-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.50	0-0-2 2.40	1-1-0 2.24	0-1-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.47
Modena	0-1-1 2.27	0-0-2 2.60	0-2-0 1.95	0-1-1 2.03	0-1-1 1.93	1-1-0 2.10	1-0-1 2.22	1-0-1 2.63	0-0-2 2.66	—	2-0-0 2.45	0-2-0 2.52	2-0-0 2.11	0-0-2 2.40	0-0-2 2.00	1-1-0 2.31
Napoli	1-1-0 2.53	0-2-0 2.83	0-0-2 2.26	1-0-1 2.34	2-0-0 2.15	1-0-1 2.45	0-2-0 2.56	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.99	0-0-2 3.06	—	1-1-0 2.74	1-1-0 2.44	0-1-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.32	1-1-0 2.64
Novara	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.73	0-0-2 2.39	0-1-1 2.34	0-0-2 2.25	0-1-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.46	2-0-0 2.77	1-1-0 3.00	0-2-0 2.99	0-1-1 2.78	—	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 2.30	1-1-0 2.60
Roma	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.69	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.12	0-0-2 3.43	0-1-1 3.07	1-0-1 3.03	—	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 2.54	1-0-1 2.88
Sampdoria	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 3.04	0-1-1 2.49	2-0-0 2.54	1-0-1 2.38	0-1-1 2.66	0-0-2 2.77	1-1-0 3.12	0-1-1 3.29	2-0-0 3.14	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.67	—	1-0-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.81
Torino	1-1-0 3.02	1-1-0 3.23	1-1-0 2.62	0-0-2 2.81	1-1-0 2.64	1-1-0 2.91	1-1-0 2.95	1-1-0 3.12	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.54	1-1-0 3.20	1-1-0 3.22	0-0-2 2.97	1-0-1 3.08	—	1-0-1 2.98
Triestina	1-0-1 2.62	1-1-0 2.91	0-1-1 2.35	0-2-0 2.45	0-1-1 2.30	0-1-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 3.05	0-1-1 3.21	0-1-1 2.87	0-1-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.51	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.42%	11.88%	5.00%	2.08%	0.42%	0.83%	30.63%
1	11.88%	12.92%	6.25%	3.96%	1.04%	1.04%	37.08%
2	5.00%	6.25%	4.58%	2.08%	0.62%	0.21%	18.75%
3	2.08%	3.96%	2.08%	0.42%	0.21%	0.21%	8.96%
4	0.42%	1.04%	0.62%	0.21%	—	—	2.29%
5+	0.83%	1.04%	0.21%	0.21%	—	—	2.29%
Total	30.63%	37.08%	18.75%	8.96%	2.29%	2.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.24
Mean allowed	1.24
StdDev scored	1.23
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	2.47
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.121
Sample size (games)	240

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	10.00%	—	13.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
2	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	33.33%
3	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	30.00%	30.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	100%

AC Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.20
Mean allowed	1.13
StdDev scored	1.03
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	2.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.231
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	10.00%	6.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	40.00%
1	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	26.67%
2	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	3.33%	10.00%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.67%	40.00%	13.33%	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	100%

Bari — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.10
Mean allowed	1.53
StdDev scored	1.16
StdDev allowed	1.76
Mean total goals/game	2.63
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.041
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
1	13.33%	26.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	43.33%
2	6.67%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	23.33%
3	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	30.00%	46.67%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	100%

Bologna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	1.03
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	0.93
Mean total goals/game	2.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.077
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	33.33%
1	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
2	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
3	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
Total	33.33%	43.33%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	100%

Genova 1893 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	0.95
Mean total goals/game	2.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.092
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
1	10.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	40.00%
2	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	—	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
Total	26.67%	40.00%	20.00%	10.00%	3.33%	—	100%

Inter Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	1.23
StdDev scored	1.80
StdDev allowed	1.07
Mean total goals/game	3.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.146
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	33.33%
1	13.33%	26.67%	—	—	3.33%	—	43.33%
2	—	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	50.00%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Juventus — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.93
Mean allowed	1.13
StdDev scored	0.83
StdDev allowed	1.22
Mean total goals/game	2.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.077
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	26.67%
1	16.67%	10.00%	16.67%	6.67%	—	—	50.00%
2	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	30.00%	23.33%	33.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	100%

Lazio Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.10
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.06
StdDev allowed	1.12
Mean total goals/game	2.43
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.260
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.33%	13.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	46.67%
2	3.33%	—	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	23.33%
3	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	16.67%	36.67%	20.00%	3.33%	—	100%

Livorno — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.63
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	1.16
Mean total goals/game	2.97
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.011
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	13.33%	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	10.00%	23.33%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	56.67%
2	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	50.00%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	10.00%	100%

Lucchese — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.03
Mean allowed	1.80
StdDev scored	0.81
StdDev allowed	1.69
Mean total goals/game	2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.096
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	16.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	10.00%	16.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	36.67%
2	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	23.33%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
4	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	36.67%	16.67%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Modena — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.07
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.01
StdDev allowed	1.35
Mean total goals/game	2.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.160
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	23.33%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	43.33%
1	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	26.67%
2	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	30.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Napoli — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.000
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	40.00%
1	10.00%	10.00%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	40.00%
2	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	40.00%	33.33%	6.67%	20.00%	—	—	100%

Novara — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.90
Mean allowed	1.07
StdDev scored	1.06
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	1.97
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.165
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	33.33%
1	20.00%	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	30.00%
2	6.67%	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	16.67%
3	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	26.67%	16.67%	13.33%	—	3.33%	100%

Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.30
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.26
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	2.47
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.159
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	26.67%
1	20.00%	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	43.33%
2	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	16.67%
3	—	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	36.67%	20.00%	6.67%	—	3.33%	100%

Sampdoria — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	1.13
StdDev scored	0.99
StdDev allowed	1.17
Mean total goals/game	2.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.370
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
1	13.33%	23.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	46.67%
2	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
3	6.67%	3.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
4	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	30.00%	43.33%	20.00%	3.33%	—	3.33%	100%

Torino — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.13
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	1.22
Mean total goals/game	2.63
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.108
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	26.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	56.67%
1	3.33%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
2	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	46.67%	23.33%	—	—	—	100%

Triestina — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.77
Mean allowed	0.93
StdDev scored	1.07
StdDev allowed	0.74
Mean total goals/game	1.70
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.197
Games played	30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bologna	42	34.1	+7.93
2	Torino	38	32.6	+5.44
3	Inter Milan	37	34.0	+2.98
4	Napoli	31	28.5	+2.53
5	Genova 1893	35	33.6	+1.44

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Triestina	24	29.9	-5.91
2	Lazio Roma	28	31.3	-3.33
3	Livorno	24	27.3	-3.26
4	AC Milan	28	30.5	-2.51
5	Juventus	29	31.0	-1.99

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bologna	5	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 139
2	Sampdoria	4	Oct 9 – Nov 6	1 in 126
3	Napoli	2	Apr 9 – Apr 16	1 in 25
4	Modena	2	Oct 30 – Nov 6	1 in 19
5	Roma	3	Oct 2 – Oct 16	1 in 16

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sampdoria	5	Apr 2 – Apr 30	1 in 202
2	Triestina	4	Oct 2 – Oct 30	1 in 94
3	Livorno	3	Feb 19 – Mar 5	1 in 37
4	Roma	3	Jan 8 – Jan 22	1 in 23
5	AC Milan	3	Oct 2 – Oct 16	1 in 19

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bologna	19	Oct 16 – Mar 19	1 in 2,925
2	Sampdoria	7	Sep 18 – Nov 6	1 in 66
3	Triestina	7	Feb 12 – Apr 2	1 in 39
4	Lucchese	5	Nov 27 – Jan 8	1 in 37
5	Juventus	7	Apr 2 – May 28	1 in 33

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sampdoria	10	Mar 5 – May 28	1 in 161
2	Lucchese	10	Feb 26 – May 21	1 in 48
3	AC Milan	7	Sep 18 – Nov 6	1 in 39
4	Juventus	6	Jan 29 – Mar 5	1 in 33
5	Modena	9	Nov 13 – Jan 29	1 in 29

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Bologna	18.00%	18.00%	12.00%	15.00%	8.00%	5.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	1.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
Torino	14.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	13.00%	10.00%	8.00%	9.00%	8.00%	3.00%	5.00%	—	4.00%	2.00%	—	—
Inter Milan	25.00%	16.00%	14.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%	7.00%	4.00%	5.00%	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Genova 1893	16.00%	15.00%	16.00%	8.00%	6.00%	8.00%	5.00%	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Roma	2.00%	8.00%	10.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	5.00%	2.00%	7.00%	7.00%	5.00%	7.00%	5.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Sampdoria	4.00%	4.00%	8.00%	5.00%	7.00%	11.00%	12.00%	8.00%	6.00%	4.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	3.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Napoli	—	2.00%	6.00%	4.00%	7.00%	5.00%	11.00%	5.00%	8.00%	9.00%	7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%
Juventus	3.00%	9.00%	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	9.00%	9.00%	6.00%	5.00%	8.00%	4.00%	2.00%	2.00%
AC Milan	5.00%	2.00%	5.00%	3.00%	7.00%	13.00%	12.00%	9.00%	11.00%	8.00%	9.00%	5.00%	5.00%	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Lazio Roma	6.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	8.00%	4.00%	7.00%	10.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	9.00%	4.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Bari	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	7.00%	2.00%	7.00%	5.00%	8.00%	5.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%
Novara	—	4.00%	3.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	5.00%	10.00%	12.00%	7.00%	12.00%	10.00%	8.00%	10.00%
Modena	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	4.00%	8.00%	5.00%	8.00%	16.00%	22.00%	22.00%
Triestina	3.00%	3.00%	6.00%	11.00%	10.00%	4.00%	7.00%	3.00%	2.00%	7.00%	9.00%	14.00%	7.00%	8.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Livorno	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	11.00%	4.00%	4.00%	9.00%	9.00%	13.00%	11.00%	10.00%	11.00%
Lucchese	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	5.00%	4.00%	6.00%	11.00%	7.00%	17.00%	16.00%	24.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Torino	100%	—
Bologna	99.0%	1.0%
Lazio Roma	98.0%	2.0%
Genova 1893	97.0%	3.0%
Inter Milan	97.0%	3.0%
Juventus	96.0%	4.0%
Roma	96.0%	4.0%
AC Milan	95.0%	5.0%
Triestina	94.0%	6.0%
Sampdoria	89.0%	11.0%
Napoli	82.0%	18.0%
Novara	82.0%	18.0%
Bari	80.0%	20.0%
Livorno	79.0%	21.0%
Lucchese	60.0%	40.0%
Modena	56.0%	44.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1938-09-18	Livorno	W 2-0	1755	1772	58.4%	24.9%	16.7%	+7.2	3
1938-09-18	@ Bari	L 0-2	1772	1755	16.7%	24.9%	58.4%	-7.2	0
1938-09-18	Bologna	L 2-3	1832	1838	59.5%	24.7%	15.8%	-9.7	0
1938-09-18	@ Genova 1893	W 3-2	1838	1832	15.8%	24.7%	59.5%	+9.7	3
1938-09-18	Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1860	1827	62.9%	23.9%	13.2%	-2.1	1
1938-09-18	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1827	1860	13.2%	23.9%	62.9%	+2.1	1
1938-09-18	Juventus	W 1-0	1744	1850	48.8%	25.9%	25.2%	+5.4	3
1938-09-18	@ Lucchese	L 0-1	1850	1744	25.2%	25.9%	48.8%	-5.4	0
1938-09-18	Sampdoria	L 2-3	1725	1768	55.8%	25.3%	18.8%	-9.1	0
1938-09-18	@ Modena	W 3-2	1768	1725	18.8%	25.3%	55.8%	+9.1	3
1938-09-18	Novara	W 2-1	1789	1768	61.9%	24.1%	13.9%	+3.0	3
1938-09-18	@ Napoli	L 1-2	1768	1789	13.9%	24.1%	61.9%	-3.0	0
1938-09-18	AC Milan	W 1-0	1821	1832	58.9%	24.8%	16.3%	+3.7	3
1938-09-18	@ Roma	L 0-1	1832	1821	16.3%	24.8%	58.9%	-3.7	0
1938-09-18	Triestina	W 1-0	1815	1820	59.6%	24.7%	15.8%	+3.6	3
1938-09-18	@ Torino	L 0-1	1820	1815	15.8%	24.7%	59.6%	-3.6	0
1938-09-25	Napoli	D 0-0	1828	1792	63.2%	23.8%	13.0%	-2.4	1
1938-09-25	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1792	1828	13.0%	23.8%	63.2%	+2.4	4
1938-09-25	Bari	W 4-3	1847	1762	67.2%	22.4%	10.4%	+2.1	6
1938-09-25	@ Bologna	L 3-4	1762	1847	10.4%	22.4%	67.2%	-2.1	3
1938-09-25	Modena	D 1-1	1845	1716	70.5%	20.9%	8.5%	-2.7	1
1938-09-25	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1716	1845	8.5%	20.9%	70.5%	+2.7	1
1938-09-25	Genova 1893	W 2-1	1830	1823	60.6%	24.5%	14.9%	+3.2	4
1938-09-25	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1823	1830	14.9%	24.5%	60.6%	-3.2	0
1938-09-25	Torino	D 1-1	1765	1819	54.6%	25.5%	19.9%	-1.4	1
1938-09-25	@ Livorno	D 1-1	1819	1765	19.9%	25.5%	54.6%	+1.4	4
1938-09-25	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1765	1858	50.4%	25.9%	23.8%	-9.3	0
1938-09-25	@ Novara	W 1-0	1858	1765	23.8%	25.9%	50.4%	+9.3	4
1938-09-25	Roma	W 3-2	1777	1824	55.4%	25.4%	19.2%	+3.9	6
1938-09-25	@ Sampdoria	L 2-3	1824	1777	19.2%	25.4%	55.4%	-3.9	3
1938-09-25	Lucchese	W 2-1	1817	1750	65.8%	22.9%	11.3%	+2.5	3
1938-09-25	@ Triestina	L 1-2	1750	1817	11.3%	22.9%	65.8%	-2.5	3
1938-10-02	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1760	1833	52.6%	25.7%	21.7%	+4.5	6
1938-10-02	@ Bari	L 1-2	1833	1760	21.7%	25.7%	52.6%	-4.5	4
1938-10-02	Novara	W 3-1	1819	1755	65.5%	23.0%	11.5%	+4.3	3
1938-10-02	@ Genova 1893	L 1-3	1755	1819	11.5%	23.0%	65.5%	-4.3	0
1938-10-02	AC Milan	W 1-0	1867	1826	63.6%	23.6%	12.7%	+2.9	7
1938-10-02	@ Inter Milan	L 0-1	1826	1867	12.7%	23.6%	63.6%	-3.0	1
1938-10-02	Bologna	W 3-1	1763	1850	51.1%	25.8%	23.1%	+8.2	4
1938-10-02	@ Livorno	L 1-3	1850	1763	23.1%	25.8%	51.1%	-8.2	6
1938-10-02	Triestina	W 1-0	1719	1819	49.5%	25.9%	24.6%	+5.3	4
1938-10-02	@ Modena	L 0-1	1819	1719	24.6%	25.9%	49.5%	-5.3	3
1938-10-02	Sampdoria	D 0-0	1795	1781	61.3%	24.3%	14.4%	-2.2	5
1938-10-02	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1781	1795	14.4%	24.3%	61.3%	+2.2	7
1938-10-02	Juventus	W 1-0	1820	1842	57.9%	25.0%	17.1%	+3.9	6
1938-10-02	@ Roma	L 0-1	1842	1820	17.1%	25.0%	57.9%	-3.9	1
1938-10-02	Lucchese	W 5-1	1821	1747	66.3%	22.8%	11.0%	+7.5	7
1938-10-02	@ Torino	L 1-5	1747	1821	11.0%	22.8%	66.3%	-7.5	3
1938-10-09	Genova 1893	L 1-2	1823	1824	59.9%	24.6%	15.4%	-10.3	1
1938-10-09	@ AC Milan	W 2-1	1824	1823	15.4%	24.6%	59.9%	+10.3	6
1938-10-09	Torino	L 0-3	1841	1828	61.2%	24.3%	14.5%	-30.4	6
1938-10-09	@ Bologna	W 3-0	1828	1841	14.5%	24.3%	61.2%	+30.4	10
1938-10-09	Napoli	W 1-0	1838	1792	64.0%	23.5%	12.4%	+2.9	4
1938-10-09	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1792	1838	12.4%	23.5%	64.0%	-2.9	5
1938-10-09	Livorno	W 2-1	1828	1771	65.0%	23.2%	11.8%	+2.6	7
1938-10-09	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1771	1828	11.8%	23.2%	65.0%	-2.6	4
1938-10-09	Modena	W 3-1	1740	1724	61.4%	24.3%	14.3%	+5.4	6
1938-10-09	@ Lucchese	L 1-3	1724	1740	14.3%	24.3%	61.4%	-5.4	4
1938-10-09	Bari	W 2-0	1751	1764	58.7%	24.9%	16.4%	+7.1	3
1938-10-09	@ Novara	L 0-2	1764	1751	16.4%	24.9%	58.7%	-7.1	6
1938-10-09	Inter Milan	W 1-0	1783	1870	51.1%	25.8%	23.1%	+5.0	10
1938-10-09	@ Sampdoria	L 0-1	1870	1783	23.1%	25.8%	51.1%	-5.0	7
1938-10-09	Roma	L 0-1	1814	1824	59.0%	24.8%	16.2%	-10.7	3
1938-10-09	@ Triestina	W 1-0	1824	1814	16.2%	24.8%	59.0%	+10.7	9
1938-10-16	AC Milan	W 2-1	1757	1813	54.5%	25.5%	20.0%	+4.2	9
1938-10-16	@ Bari	L 1-2	1813	1757	20.0%	25.5%	54.5%	-4.2	1
1938-10-16	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1811	1831	58.1%	25.0%	16.9%	+7.3	9
1938-10-16	@ Bologna	L 0-2	1831	1811	16.9%	25.0%	58.1%	-7.3	7
1938-10-16	Sampdoria	L 0-1	1834	1788	64.0%	23.5%	12.4%	-11.5	6
1938-10-16	@ Genova 1893	W 1-0	1788	1834	12.4%	23.5%	64.0%	+11.5	13
1938-10-16	Juventus	W 5-0	1865	1841	62.1%	24.1%	13.8%	+14.0	10
1938-10-16	@ Inter Milan	L 0-5	1841	1865	13.8%	24.1%	62.1%	-14.0	4
1938-10-16	Novara	L 0-2	1769	1758	61.0%	24.4%	14.6%	-20.8	4
1938-10-16	@ Livorno	W 2-0	1758	1769	14.6%	24.4%	61.0%	+20.8	6
1938-10-16	Triestina	W 2-0	1789	1803	58.7%	24.9%	16.4%	+7.1	8
1938-10-16	@ Napoli	L 0-2	1803	1789	16.4%	24.9%	58.7%	-7.1	3
1938-10-16	Lucchese	W 3-0	1835	1745	67.6%	22.2%	10.2%	+6.4	12
1938-10-16	@ Roma	L 0-3	1745	1835	10.2%	22.2%	67.6%	-6.4	6
1938-10-16	Modena	W 4-2	1858	1719	71.3%	20.6%	8.1%	+2.7	13
1938-10-16	@ Torino	L 2-4	1719	1858	8.1%	20.6%	71.3%	-2.7	4
1938-10-30	Livorno	D 2-2	1809	1748	65.3%	23.1%	11.6%	-1.7	2
1938-10-30	@ AC Milan	D 2-2	1748	1809	11.6%	23.1%	65.3%	+1.7	5
1938-10-30	Genova 1893	D 1-1	1827	1822	60.4%	24.5%	15.1%	-1.9	5
1938-10-30	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1822	1827	15.1%	24.5%	60.4%	+1.9	7
1938-10-30	Torino	D 1-1	1824	1861	56.4%	25.3%	18.4%	-1.6	8
1938-10-30	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1861	1824	18.4%	25.3%	56.4%	+1.6	14
1938-10-30	Napoli	D 2-2	1739	1797	54.2%	25.5%	20.2%	-1.0	7
1938-10-30	@ Lucchese	D 2-2	1797	1739	20.2%	25.5%	54.2%	+1.0	9
1938-10-30	Roma	W 2-0	1716	1841	46.4%	26.0%	27.6%	+10.9	7
1938-10-30	@ Modena	L 0-2	1841	1716	27.6%	26.0%	46.4%	-10.9	12
1938-10-30	Bologna	L 1-3	1779	1818	56.2%	25.3%	18.5%	-16.8	6
1938-10-30	@ Novara	W 3-1	1818	1779	18.5%	25.3%	56.2%	+16.8	12
1938-10-30	Bari	W 1-0	1800	1762	63.4%	23.7%	12.9%	+3.0	16
1938-10-30	@ Sampdoria	L 0-1	1762	1800	12.9%	23.7%	63.4%	-3.0	9
1938-10-30	Inter Milan	L 1-2	1796	1879	51.5%	25.8%	22.7%	-8.9	3
1938-10-30	@ Triestina	W 2-1	1879	1796	22.7%	25.8%	51.5%	+8.9	13
1938-11-06	Juventus	D 1-1	1759	1825	53.3%	25.6%	21.1%	-1.3	10
1938-11-06	@ Bari	D 1-1	1825	1759	21.1%	25.6%	53.3%	+1.3	6
1938-11-06	AC Milan	W 2-1	1835	1807	62.5%	24.0%	13.5%	+2.9	15
1938-11-06	@ Bologna	L 1-2	1807	1835	13.5%	24.0%	62.5%	-3.0	2
1938-11-06	Triestina	D 0-0	1824	1787	63.3%	23.7%	13.0%	-2.4	8
1938-11-06	@ Genova 1893	D 0-0	1787	1824	13.0%	23.7%	63.3%	+2.4	4
1938-11-06	Lucchese	W 7-1	1888	1738	72.0%	20.2%	7.8%	+7.5	16
1938-11-06	@ Inter Milan	L 1-7	1738	1888	7.8%	20.2%	72.0%	-7.5	7
1938-11-06	Novara	W 1-0	1822	1762	65.2%	23.1%	11.7%	+2.7	11
1938-11-06	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1762	1822	11.7%	23.1%	65.2%	-2.7	6
1938-11-06	Sampdoria	L 0-1	1750	1803	54.8%	25.5%	19.7%	-10.0	5
1938-11-06	@ Livorno	W 1-0	1803	1750	19.7%	25.5%	54.8%	+10.0	19
1938-11-06	Modena	L 0-1	1798	1727	66.1%	22.8%	11.1%	-11.9	9
1938-11-06	@ Napoli	W 1-0	1727	1798	11.1%	22.8%	66.1%	+11.9	10
1938-11-06	Roma	L 0-1	1863	1831	62.9%	23.9%	13.3%	-11.4	14
1938-11-06	@ Torino	W 1-0	1831	1863	13.3%	23.9%	62.9%	+11.4	15
1938-11-13	Lazio Roma	W 3-0	1804	1825	58.0%	25.0%	17.0%	+10.6	5
1938-11-13	@ AC Milan	L 0-3	1825	1804	17.0%	25.0%	58.0%	-10.6	11
1938-11-13	Livorno	W 2-1	1826	1740	67.3%	22.3%	10.3%	+2.2	9
1938-11-13	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1740	1826	10.3%	22.3%	67.3%	-2.2	5
1938-11-13	Genova 1893	L 0-1	1730	1822	50.5%	25.9%	23.7%	-9.3	7
1938-11-13	@ Lucchese	W 1-0	1822	1730	23.7%	25.9%	50.5%	+9.3	11
1938-11-13	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1739	1895	42.4%	25.9%	31.6%	-0.4	11
1938-11-13	@ Modena	D 1-1	1895	1739	31.6%	25.9%	42.4%	+0.4	17
1938-11-13	Torino	L 0-1	1760	1851	50.5%	25.9%	23.7%	-9.3	6
1938-11-13	@ Novara	W 1-0	1851	1760	23.7%	25.9%	50.5%	+9.3	17
1938-11-13	Napoli	D 2-2	1842	1786	64.9%	23.2%	11.9%	-1.7	16
1938-11-13	@ Roma	D 2-2	1786	1842	11.9%	23.2%	64.9%	+1.7	10
1938-11-13	Bologna	L 1-2	1813	1838	57.6%	25.1%	17.3%	-9.9	19
1938-11-13	@ Sampdoria	W 2-1	1838	1813	17.3%	25.1%	57.6%	+9.9	18
1938-11-13	Bari	W 1-0	1790	1757	62.9%	23.9%	13.2%	+3.1	7
1938-11-13	@ Triestina	L 0-1	1757	1790	13.2%	23.9%	62.9%	-3.1	10
1938-11-27	Lucchese	D 1-1	1754	1721	63.0%	23.8%	13.2%	-2.2	11
1938-11-27	@ Bari	D 1-1	1721	1754	13.2%	23.8%	63.0%	+2.2	8
1938-11-27	Juventus	W 1-0	1848	1829	61.7%	24.2%	14.1%	+3.2	21
1938-11-27	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1829	1848	14.1%	24.2%	61.7%	-3.2	9
1938-11-27	Modena	W 5-1	1831	1738	67.8%	22.1%	10.0%	+6.9	14
1938-11-27	@ Genova 1893	L 1-5	1738	1831	10.0%	22.1%	67.8%	-6.9	11
1938-11-27	Roma	D 0-0	1896	1840	64.8%	23.3%	11.9%	-2.6	18
1938-11-27	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1840	1896	11.9%	23.3%	64.8%	+2.6	17
1938-11-27	Sampdoria	W 1-0	1814	1803	61.0%	24.4%	14.6%	+3.4	14
1938-11-27	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1803	1814	14.6%	24.4%	61.0%	-3.4	19
1938-11-27	Triestina	W 1-0	1737	1793	54.5%	25.5%	20.0%	+4.5	8
1938-11-27	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1793	1737	20.0%	25.5%	54.5%	-4.5	7
1938-11-27	AC Milan	W 2-1	1750	1815	53.5%	25.6%	20.8%	+4.3	9
1938-11-27	@ Novara	L 1-2	1815	1750	20.8%	25.6%	53.5%	-4.3	5
1938-11-27	Napoli	W 3-0	1861	1787	66.3%	22.8%	11.0%	+6.9	20
1938-11-27	@ Torino	L 0-3	1787	1861	11.0%	22.8%	66.3%	-6.9	10
1938-12-11	Torino	D 0-0	1810	1868	54.3%	25.5%	20.2%	-1.6	6
1938-12-11	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1868	1810	20.2%	25.5%	54.3%	+1.6	21
1938-12-11	Lazio Roma	W 1-0	1825	1818	60.7%	24.4%	14.8%	+3.4	12
1938-12-11	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1818	1825	14.8%	24.4%	60.7%	-3.4	14
1938-12-11	Livorno	W 2-1	1723	1742	58.2%	25.0%	16.8%	+3.6	11
1938-12-11	@ Lucchese	L 1-2	1742	1723	16.8%	25.0%	58.2%	-3.6	8
1938-12-11	Bari	L 0-2	1731	1752	58.0%	25.0%	17.0%	-19.9	11
1938-12-11	@ Modena	W 2-0	1752	1731	17.0%	25.0%	58.0%	+19.9	14
1938-12-11	Inter Milan	W 1-0	1780	1893	48.0%	25.9%	26.0%	+5.5	13
1938-12-11	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1893	1780	26.0%	25.9%	48.0%	-5.5	18
1938-12-11	Genova 1893	W 3-1	1843	1838	60.4%	24.5%	15.1%	+5.7	20
1938-12-11	@ Roma	L 1-3	1838	1843	15.1%	24.5%	60.4%	-5.7	14
1938-12-11	Novara	W 3-1	1799	1755	63.9%	23.5%	12.5%	+4.7	22
1938-12-11	@ Sampdoria	L 1-3	1755	1799	12.5%	23.5%	63.9%	-4.7	9
1938-12-11	Bologna	D 1-1	1788	1851	53.7%	25.6%	20.7%	-1.3	8
1938-12-11	@ Triestina	D 1-1	1851	1788	20.7%	25.6%	53.7%	+1.4	22
1938-12-18	Sampdoria	D 0-0	1809	1804	60.4%	24.5%	15.1%	-2.2	7
1938-12-18	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1804	1809	15.1%	24.5%	60.4%	+2.2	23
1938-12-18	Roma	W 3-1	1772	1848	52.2%	25.7%	22.1%	+7.9	17
1938-12-18	@ Bari	L 1-3	1848	1772	22.1%	25.7%	52.2%	-7.9	20
1938-12-18	Lucchese	D 2-2	1852	1727	70.3%	21.1%	8.6%	-2.0	23
1938-12-18	@ Bologna	D 2-2	1727	1852	8.6%	21.1%	70.3%	+2.0	12
1938-12-18	Napoli	W 3-1	1832	1786	64.1%	23.5%	12.4%	+4.7	17
1938-12-18	@ Genova 1893	L 1-3	1786	1832	12.4%	23.5%	64.1%	-4.7	13
1938-12-18	Triestina	W 1-0	1814	1787	62.5%	24.0%	13.6%	+3.1	17
1938-12-18	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1787	1814	13.6%	24.0%	62.5%	-3.1	8
1938-12-18	Modena	W 1-0	1738	1711	62.4%	24.0%	13.6%	+3.1	11
1938-12-18	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1711	1738	13.6%	24.0%	62.4%	-3.1	11
1938-12-18	Juventus	D 0-0	1750	1829	51.9%	25.8%	22.3%	-1.3	10
1938-12-18	@ Novara	D 0-0	1829	1750	22.3%	25.8%	51.9%	+1.3	13
1938-12-18	Inter Milan	W 2-1	1869	1888	58.2%	24.9%	16.8%	+3.6	24
1938-12-18	@ Torino	L 1-2	1888	1869	16.8%	24.9%	58.2%	-3.6	18
1939-01-01	Genova 1893	W 1-0	1884	1837	64.1%	23.5%	12.4%	+2.9	21
1939-01-01	@ Inter Milan	L 0-1	1837	1884	12.4%	23.5%	64.1%	-2.9	17
1939-01-01	AC Milan	D 2-2	1830	1806	62.1%	24.1%	13.8%	-1.5	14
1939-01-01	@ Juventus	D 2-2	1806	1830	13.8%	24.1%	62.1%	+1.5	8
1939-01-01	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1729	1817	50.8%	25.8%	23.3%	+4.8	15
1939-01-01	@ Lucchese	L 1-2	1817	1729	23.3%	25.8%	50.8%	-4.8	17
1939-01-01	Bologna	D 1-1	1708	1850	44.3%	26.0%	29.7%	-0.6	12
1939-01-01	@ Modena	D 1-1	1850	1708	29.7%	26.0%	44.3%	+0.6	24
1939-01-01	Bari	D 1-1	1781	1780	60.1%	24.6%	15.3%	-1.9	14
1939-01-01	@ Napoli	D 1-1	1780	1781	15.3%	24.6%	60.1%	+1.9	18
1939-01-01	Livorno	W 4-1	1840	1741	68.3%	21.9%	9.8%	+5.2	23
1939-01-01	@ Roma	L 1-4	1741	1840	9.8%	21.9%	68.3%	-5.2	11
1939-01-01	Torino	W 2-1	1806	1873	53.3%	25.6%	21.1%	+4.4	26
1939-01-01	@ Sampdoria	L 1-2	1873	1806	21.1%	25.6%	53.3%	-4.4	24
1939-01-01	Novara	D 0-0	1784	1749	63.1%	23.8%	13.1%	-2.4	9
1939-01-01	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1749	1784	13.1%	23.8%	63.1%	+2.4	11
1939-01-08	Triestina	L 2-4	1808	1781	62.4%	24.0%	13.6%	-16.5	8
1939-01-08	@ AC Milan	W 4-2	1781	1808	13.6%	24.0%	62.4%	+16.5	12
1939-01-08	Inter Milan	W 4-1	1782	1887	48.9%	25.9%	25.2%	+12.4	21
1939-01-08	@ Bari	L 1-4	1887	1782	25.2%	25.9%	48.9%	-12.4	21
1939-01-08	Roma	W 1-0	1851	1846	60.5%	24.5%	15.0%	+3.5	27
1939-01-08	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1846	1851	15.0%	24.5%	60.5%	-3.5	23
1939-01-08	Modena	W 2-1	1812	1708	68.7%	21.8%	9.5%	+2.0	20
1939-01-08	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1708	1812	9.5%	21.8%	68.7%	-2.0	12
1939-01-08	Napoli	W 2-0	1736	1779	55.8%	25.4%	18.9%	+8.0	14
1939-01-08	@ Livorno	L 0-2	1779	1736	18.9%	25.4%	55.8%	-8.0	14
1939-01-08	Lucchese	D 1-1	1751	1733	61.6%	24.2%	14.2%	-2.0	12
1939-01-08	@ Novara	D 1-1	1733	1751	14.2%	24.2%	61.6%	+2.0	16
1939-01-08	Juventus	D 1-1	1811	1829	58.3%	24.9%	16.8%	-1.8	27
1939-01-08	@ Sampdoria	D 1-1	1829	1811	16.8%	24.9%	58.3%	+1.8	15
1939-01-08	Genova 1893	L 0-1	1868	1834	63.0%	23.8%	13.1%	-11.4	24
1939-01-08	@ Torino	W 1-0	1834	1868	13.1%	23.8%	63.0%	+11.4	20
1939-01-15	Bari	W 8-0	1846	1794	64.5%	23.4%	12.1%	+19.3	23
1939-01-15	@ Genova 1893	L 0-8	1794	1846	12.1%	23.4%	64.5%	-19.3	21
1939-01-15	Livorno	W 3-1	1874	1744	70.6%	20.9%	8.5%	+3.1	24
1939-01-15	@ Inter Milan	L 1-3	1744	1874	8.5%	20.9%	70.6%	-3.1	14
1939-01-15	AC Milan	L 1-2	1735	1792	54.4%	25.5%	20.1%	-9.4	16
1939-01-15	@ Lucchese	W 2-1	1792	1735	20.1%	25.5%	54.4%	+9.4	11
1939-01-15	Novara	D 1-1	1706	1749	55.8%	25.4%	18.9%	-1.5	13
1939-01-15	@ Modena	D 1-1	1749	1706	18.9%	25.4%	55.8%	+1.5	13
1939-01-15	Bologna	L 1-6	1771	1854	51.5%	25.8%	22.7%	-34.6	14
1939-01-15	@ Napoli	W 6-1	1854	1771	22.7%	25.8%	51.5%	+34.6	30
1939-01-15	Lazio Roma	L 0-2	1842	1814	62.5%	24.0%	13.5%	-21.3	23
1939-01-15	@ Roma	W 2-0	1814	1842	13.5%	24.0%	62.5%	+21.3	23
1939-01-15	Juventus	W 3-2	1857	1830	62.4%	24.0%	13.6%	+2.8	27
1939-01-15	@ Torino	L 2-3	1830	1857	13.6%	24.0%	62.4%	-2.8	15
1939-01-15	Sampdoria	L 0-2	1798	1809	59.0%	24.8%	16.2%	-20.2	12
1939-01-15	@ Triestina	W 2-0	1809	1798	16.2%	24.8%	59.0%	+20.2	30
1939-01-22	Modena	W 2-0	1801	1704	68.1%	22.0%	9.9%	+4.3	14
1939-01-22	@ AC Milan	L 0-2	1704	1801	9.9%	22.0%	68.1%	-4.3	13
1939-01-22	Torino	D 0-0	1775	1860	51.3%	25.8%	22.9%	-1.3	22
1939-01-22	@ Bari	D 0-0	1860	1775	22.9%	25.8%	51.3%	+1.3	28
1939-01-22	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1889	1877	61.1%	24.4%	14.6%	-2.0	31
1939-01-22	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1877	1889	14.6%	24.4%	61.1%	+2.0	25
1939-01-22	Triestina	W 2-1	1828	1777	64.4%	23.4%	12.2%	+2.7	18
1939-01-22	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1777	1828	12.2%	23.4%	64.4%	-2.7	12
1939-01-22	Napoli	D 0-0	1836	1737	68.3%	21.9%	9.8%	-2.9	24
1939-01-22	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1737	1836	9.8%	21.9%	68.3%	+2.9	15
1939-01-22	Genova 1893	D 2-2	1741	1865	46.6%	26.0%	27.4%	-0.6	15
1939-01-22	@ Livorno	D 2-2	1865	1741	27.4%	26.0%	46.6%	+0.6	24
1939-01-22	Roma	W 5-0	1750	1821	52.9%	25.7%	21.4%	+20.8	16
1939-01-22	@ Novara	L 0-5	1821	1750	21.4%	25.7%	52.9%	-20.8	23
1939-01-22	Lucchese	D 1-1	1829	1726	68.6%	21.8%	9.6%	-2.6	31
1939-01-22	@ Sampdoria	D 1-1	1726	1829	9.6%	21.8%	68.6%	+2.6	17
1939-01-29	Roma	L 0-1	1805	1800	60.5%	24.5%	15.0%	-11.0	14
1939-01-29	@ AC Milan	W 1-0	1800	1805	15.0%	24.5%	60.5%	+11.0	26
1939-01-29	Genova 1893	W 3-0	1887	1866	61.9%	24.1%	13.9%	+8.8	34
1939-01-29	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1866	1887	13.9%	24.1%	61.9%	-8.8	24
1939-01-29	Lucchese	D 1-1	1830	1729	68.5%	21.9%	9.7%	-2.6	19
1939-01-29	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1729	1830	9.7%	21.9%	68.5%	+2.6	18
1939-01-29	Inter Milan	L 1-2	1833	1879	55.4%	25.4%	19.2%	-9.5	24
1939-01-29	@ Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1879	1833	19.2%	25.4%	55.4%	+9.5	28
1939-01-29	Bari	W 3-0	1741	1774	56.8%	25.2%	18.0%	+11.1	18
1939-01-29	@ Livorno	L 0-3	1774	1741	18.0%	25.2%	56.8%	-11.1	22
1939-01-29	Napoli	D 0-0	1771	1740	62.8%	23.9%	13.3%	-2.4	17
1939-01-29	@ Novara	D 0-0	1740	1771	13.3%	23.9%	62.8%	+2.4	16
1939-01-29	Modena	W 1-0	1826	1700	70.3%	21.0%	8.6%	+2.0	34
1939-01-29	@ Sampdoria	L 0-1	1700	1826	8.6%	21.0%	70.3%	-2.0	13
1939-01-29	Torino	W 3-1	1775	1861	51.1%	25.8%	23.1%	+8.2	15
1939-01-29	@ Triestina	L 1-3	1861	1775	23.1%	25.8%	51.1%	-8.2	28
1939-02-05	Bologna	D 2-2	1762	1896	45.4%	26.0%	28.6%	-0.5	23
1939-02-05	@ Bari	D 2-2	1896	1762	28.6%	26.0%	45.4%	+0.5	35
1939-02-05	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1857	1823	63.0%	23.8%	13.2%	+2.9	27
1939-02-05	@ Genova 1893	L 1-2	1823	1857	13.2%	23.8%	63.0%	-2.9	24
1939-02-05	Novara	W 3-1	1889	1769	69.9%	21.2%	8.9%	+3.3	31
1939-02-05	@ Inter Milan	L 1-3	1769	1889	8.9%	21.2%	69.9%	-3.3	17
1939-02-05	Triestina	W 1-0	1731	1783	54.9%	25.5%	19.7%	+4.4	21
1939-02-05	@ Lucchese	L 0-1	1783	1731	19.7%	25.5%	54.9%	-4.4	15
1939-02-05	Juventus	W 2-0	1698	1828	45.9%	26.0%	28.1%	+11.0	16
1939-02-05	@ Modena	L 0-2	1828	1698	28.1%	26.0%	45.9%	-11.1	19
1939-02-05	AC Milan	W 1-0	1742	1794	54.9%	25.5%	19.7%	+4.4	19
1939-02-05	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1794	1742	19.7%	25.5%	54.9%	-4.4	14
1939-02-05	Sampdoria	W 1-0	1811	1828	58.4%	24.9%	16.7%	+3.8	29
1939-02-05	@ Roma	L 0-1	1828	1811	16.7%	24.9%	58.4%	-3.8	34
1939-02-05	Livorno	W 3-2	1853	1752	68.5%	21.9%	9.7%	+2.0	31
1939-02-05	@ Torino	L 2-3	1752	1853	9.7%	21.9%	68.5%	-2.0	18
1939-02-12	Inter Milan	W 3-1	1790	1892	49.2%	25.9%	24.9%	+8.7	17
1939-02-12	@ AC Milan	L 1-3	1892	1790	24.9%	25.9%	49.2%	-8.7	31
1939-02-12	Livorno	D 1-1	1896	1750	71.8%	20.3%	7.9%	-2.8	36
1939-02-12	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1750	1896	7.9%	20.3%	71.8%	+2.8	19
1939-02-12	Roma	D 0-0	1817	1815	60.2%	24.6%	15.3%	-2.1	20
1939-02-12	@ Juventus	D 0-0	1815	1817	15.3%	24.6%	60.2%	+2.1	30
1939-02-12	Bari	W 1-0	1820	1762	65.1%	23.2%	11.7%	+2.7	27
1939-02-12	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1762	1820	11.7%	23.2%	65.1%	-2.7	23
1939-02-12	Torino	D 1-1	1736	1855	47.2%	26.0%	26.8%	-0.8	22
1939-02-12	@ Lucchese	D 1-1	1855	1736	26.8%	26.0%	47.2%	+0.8	32
1939-02-12	Genova 1893	D 0-0	1766	1860	50.2%	25.9%	23.9%	-1.2	18
1939-02-12	@ Novara	D 0-0	1860	1766	23.9%	25.9%	50.2%	+1.2	28
1939-02-12	Napoli	W 2-0	1825	1746	66.7%	22.6%	10.7%	+4.7	37
1939-02-12	@ Sampdoria	L 0-2	1746	1825	10.7%	22.6%	66.7%	-4.7	19
1939-02-12	Modena	D 0-0	1779	1709	66.0%	22.9%	11.2%	-2.7	16
1939-02-12	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1709	1779	11.2%	22.9%	66.0%	+2.7	17
1939-02-19	Novara	W 1-0	1759	1764	59.5%	24.7%	15.8%	+3.6	26
1939-02-19	@ Bari	L 0-1	1764	1759	15.8%	24.7%	59.5%	-3.6	18
1939-02-19	AC Milan	W 2-0	1861	1799	65.4%	23.1%	11.5%	+5.0	31
1939-02-19	@ Genova 1893	L 0-2	1799	1861	11.5%	23.1%	65.4%	-5.0	17
1939-02-19	Sampdoria	W 5-2	1884	1829	64.7%	23.3%	12.0%	+5.5	34
1939-02-19	@ Inter Milan	L 2-5	1829	1884	12.0%	23.3%	64.7%	-5.5	37
1939-02-19	Lazio Roma	L 2-3	1753	1823	52.9%	25.7%	21.5%	-8.7	19
1939-02-19	@ Livorno	W 3-2	1823	1753	21.5%	25.7%	52.9%	+8.7	30
1939-02-19	Lucchese	L 0-1	1712	1735	57.8%	25.0%	17.2%	-10.5	17
1939-02-19	@ Modena	W 1-0	1735	1712	17.2%	25.0%	57.8%	+10.5	25
1939-02-19	Juventus	W 4-1	1742	1814	52.6%	25.7%	21.6%	+11.0	22
1939-02-19	@ Napoli	L 1-4	1814	1742	21.6%	25.7%	52.6%	-11.0	20
1939-02-19	Triestina	L 1-2	1817	1776	63.6%	23.6%	12.7%	-10.8	30
1939-02-19	@ Roma	W 2-1	1776	1817	12.7%	23.6%	63.6%	+10.8	19
1939-02-19	Bologna	D 1-1	1856	1893	56.3%	25.3%	18.4%	-1.6	33
1939-02-19	@ Torino	D 1-1	1893	1856	18.4%	25.3%	56.3%	+1.6	37
1939-02-26	Bari	W 3-1	1793	1763	62.7%	23.9%	13.4%	+5.0	20
1939-02-26	@ AC Milan	L 1-3	1763	1793	13.4%	23.9%	62.7%	-5.0	26
1939-02-26	Inter Milan	D 0-0	1803	1889	51.2%	25.8%	23.0%	-1.3	21
1939-02-26	@ Juventus	D 0-0	1889	1803	23.0%	25.8%	51.2%	+1.3	35
1939-02-26	Bologna	L 1-2	1832	1895	53.7%	25.6%	20.7%	-9.3	30
1939-02-26	@ Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1895	1832	20.7%	25.6%	53.7%	+9.3	40
1939-02-26	Roma	L 1-4	1745	1806	53.9%	25.6%	20.5%	-22.8	25
1939-02-26	@ Lucchese	W 4-1	1806	1745	20.5%	25.6%	53.9%	+22.8	33
1939-02-26	Torino	L 0-1	1701	1854	42.9%	25.9%	31.1%	-8.1	17
1939-02-26	@ Modena	W 1-0	1854	1701	31.1%	25.9%	42.9%	+8.1	36
1939-02-26	Livorno	W 2-1	1761	1744	61.5%	24.2%	14.2%	+3.1	21
1939-02-26	@ Novara	L 1-2	1744	1761	14.2%	24.2%	61.5%	-3.1	19
1939-02-26	Genova 1893	W 1-0	1824	1866	55.9%	25.3%	18.8%	+4.2	40
1939-02-26	@ Sampdoria	L 0-1	1866	1824	18.8%	25.3%	55.9%	-4.2	31
1939-02-26	Napoli	D 0-0	1787	1753	63.0%	23.8%	13.2%	-2.4	20
1939-02-26	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1753	1787	13.2%	23.8%	63.0%	+2.4	23
1939-03-05	Sampdoria	W 2-1	1758	1828	52.9%	25.7%	21.4%	+4.5	29
1939-03-05	@ Bari	L 1-2	1828	1758	21.4%	25.7%	52.9%	-4.5	40
1939-03-05	Novara	W 3-0	1904	1764	71.4%	20.5%	8.1%	+5.0	43
1939-03-05	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1764	1904	8.1%	20.5%	71.4%	-5.0	21
1939-03-05	Juventus	W 3-2	1862	1802	65.2%	23.2%	11.7%	+2.4	34
1939-03-05	@ Genova 1893	L 2-3	1802	1862	11.7%	23.2%	65.2%	-2.4	21
1939-03-05	Triestina	D 0-0	1890	1784	68.8%	21.7%	9.4%	-2.9	36
1939-03-05	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1784	1890	9.4%	21.7%	68.8%	+2.9	21
1939-03-05	AC Milan	L 0-2	1741	1799	54.2%	25.5%	20.2%	-18.7	19
1939-03-05	@ Livorno	W 2-0	1799	1741	20.2%	25.5%	54.2%	+18.7	23
1939-03-05	Lucchese	W 3-1	1755	1723	62.9%	23.9%	13.2%	+5.0	26
1939-03-05	@ Napoli	L 1-3	1723	1755	13.2%	23.9%	62.9%	-5.0	25
1939-03-05	Modena	L 0-1	1829	1693	71.0%	20.7%	8.3%	-12.6	33
1939-03-05	@ Roma	W 1-0	1693	1829	8.3%	20.7%	71.0%	+12.6	20
1939-03-05	Lazio Roma	W 3-1	1862	1823	63.5%	23.7%	12.8%	+4.8	39
1939-03-05	@ Torino	L 1-3	1823	1862	12.8%	23.7%	63.5%	-4.8	30
1939-03-12	Bologna	L 0-1	1817	1909	50.4%	25.9%	23.7%	-9.3	23
1939-03-12	@ AC Milan	W 1-0	1909	1817	23.7%	25.9%	50.4%	+9.3	46
1939-03-12	Bari	W 3-0	1800	1762	63.3%	23.7%	12.9%	+8.2	24
1939-03-12	@ Juventus	L 0-3	1762	1800	12.9%	23.7%	63.3%	-8.2	29
1939-03-12	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1718	1888	40.7%	25.8%	33.5%	-0.3	26
1939-03-12	@ Lucchese	D 1-1	1888	1718	33.5%	25.8%	40.7%	+0.3	37
1939-03-12	Napoli	W 2-1	1706	1760	54.6%	25.5%	19.9%	+4.2	23
1939-03-12	@ Modena	L 1-2	1760	1706	19.9%	25.5%	54.6%	-4.2	26
1939-03-12	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1759	1818	54.1%	25.6%	20.3%	+8.5	24
1939-03-12	@ Novara	L 0-2	1818	1759	20.3%	25.6%	54.1%	-8.5	30
1939-03-12	Torino	W 2-0	1816	1867	55.0%	25.4%	19.5%	+8.2	36
1939-03-12	@ Roma	L 0-2	1867	1816	19.5%	25.4%	55.0%	-8.2	39
1939-03-12	Livorno	D 3-3	1824	1722	68.5%	21.9%	9.7%	-1.6	41
1939-03-12	@ Sampdoria	D 3-3	1722	1824	9.7%	21.9%	68.5%	+1.6	20
1939-03-12	Genova 1893	D 1-1	1787	1864	52.2%	25.7%	22.1%	-1.2	22
1939-03-12	@ Triestina	D 1-1	1864	1787	22.1%	25.7%	52.2%	+1.2	35
1939-03-19	Triestina	D 0-0	1754	1786	56.9%	25.2%	17.9%	-1.8	30
1939-03-19	@ Bari	D 0-0	1786	1754	17.9%	25.2%	56.9%	+1.8	23
1939-03-19	Sampdoria	D 1-1	1919	1822	68.1%	22.0%	9.9%	-2.6	47
1939-03-19	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1822	1919	9.9%	22.0%	68.1%	+2.6	42
1939-03-19	Lucchese	W 4-1	1865	1717	71.9%	20.3%	7.8%	+4.1	38
1939-03-19	@ Genova 1893	L 1-4	1717	1865	7.8%	20.3%	71.9%	-4.0	26
1939-03-19	Modena	W 4-2	1888	1710	74.0%	19.2%	6.9%	+2.2	40
1939-03-19	@ Inter Milan	L 2-4	1710	1888	6.9%	19.2%	74.0%	-2.2	23
1939-03-19	AC Milan	D 2-2	1809	1808	60.1%	24.6%	15.3%	-1.4	31
1939-03-19	@ Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1808	1809	15.3%	24.6%	60.1%	+1.4	24
1939-03-19	Juventus	W 1-0	1724	1808	51.3%	25.8%	22.9%	+5.0	23
1939-03-19	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1808	1724	22.9%	25.8%	51.3%	-5.0	24
1939-03-19	Roma	W 1-0	1756	1825	53.1%	25.7%	21.3%	+4.7	29
1939-03-19	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1825	1756	21.3%	25.7%	53.1%	-4.7	36
1939-03-19	Novara	D 1-1	1859	1767	67.7%	22.2%	10.1%	-2.5	40
1939-03-19	@ Torino	D 1-1	1767	1859	10.1%	22.2%	67.7%	+2.5	25
1939-04-02	Novara	W 2-1	1809	1770	63.5%	23.7%	12.8%	+2.8	27
1939-04-02	@ AC Milan	L 1-2	1770	1809	12.8%	23.7%	63.5%	-2.8	25
1939-04-02	Bologna	W 1-0	1803	1916	47.9%	25.9%	26.1%	+5.5	27
1939-04-02	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1916	1803	26.1%	25.9%	47.9%	-5.5	47
1939-04-02	Bari	D 0-0	1713	1752	56.2%	25.3%	18.5%	-1.8	27
1939-04-02	@ Lucchese	D 0-0	1752	1713	18.5%	25.3%	56.2%	+1.8	31
1939-04-02	Genova 1893	D 0-0	1708	1869	41.8%	25.9%	32.3%	-0.4	24
1939-04-02	@ Modena	D 0-0	1869	1708	32.3%	25.9%	41.8%	+0.4	39
1939-04-02	Torino	D 0-0	1761	1856	50.0%	25.9%	24.1%	-1.2	30
1939-04-02	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1856	1761	24.1%	25.9%	50.0%	+1.2	41
1939-04-02	Inter Milan	L 2-3	1820	1890	52.9%	25.7%	21.4%	-8.7	36
1939-04-02	@ Roma	W 3-2	1890	1820	21.4%	25.7%	52.9%	+8.7	43
1939-04-02	Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1824	1808	61.5%	24.2%	14.2%	-11.1	42
1939-04-02	@ Sampdoria	W 1-0	1808	1824	14.2%	24.2%	61.5%	+11.1	34
1939-04-02	Livorno	W 2-0	1788	1729	65.1%	23.2%	11.7%	+5.1	26
1939-04-02	@ Triestina	L 0-2	1729	1788	11.7%	23.2%	65.1%	-5.1	23
1939-04-09	Modena	W 1-0	1754	1707	64.1%	23.5%	12.4%	+2.9	34
1939-04-09	@ Bari	L 0-1	1707	1754	12.4%	23.5%	64.1%	-2.9	24
1939-04-09	Triestina	W 2-0	1911	1793	69.7%	21.3%	9.0%	+3.9	50
1939-04-09	@ Bologna	L 0-2	1793	1911	9.0%	21.3%	69.7%	-3.8	26
1939-04-09	Roma	W 2-0	1870	1811	65.1%	23.2%	11.7%	+5.1	42
1939-04-09	@ Genova 1893	L 0-2	1811	1870	11.7%	23.2%	65.1%	-5.1	36
1939-04-09	Napoli	L 1-2	1899	1760	71.3%	20.6%	8.2%	-11.9	43
1939-04-09	@ Inter Milan	W 2-1	1760	1899	8.2%	20.6%	71.3%	+11.9	33
1939-04-09	Juventus	D 1-1	1819	1808	61.0%	24.4%	14.7%	-2.0	35
1939-04-09	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1808	1819	14.7%	24.4%	61.0%	+2.0	28
1939-04-09	Lucchese	W 1-0	1724	1711	61.1%	24.3%	14.6%	+3.4	26
1939-04-09	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1711	1724	14.6%	24.3%	61.1%	-3.4	27
1939-04-09	Sampdoria	W 1-0	1767	1813	55.5%	25.4%	19.1%	+4.3	28
1939-04-09	@ Novara	L 0-1	1813	1767	19.1%	25.4%	55.5%	-4.3	42
1939-04-09	AC Milan	W 3-2	1857	1812	64.0%	23.5%	12.5%	+2.6	44
1939-04-09	@ Torino	L 2-3	1812	1857	12.5%	23.5%	64.0%	-2.6	27
1939-04-16	Torino	D 1-1	1887	1860	62.4%	24.0%	13.6%	-2.1	44
1939-04-16	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1860	1887	13.6%	24.0%	62.4%	+2.1	45
1939-04-16	Novara	W 1-0	1810	1771	63.5%	23.7%	12.8%	+3.0	31
1939-04-16	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1771	1810	12.8%	23.7%	63.5%	-3.0	28
1939-04-16	Bologna	D 1-1	1708	1914	35.7%	25.5%	38.8%	+0.1	28
1939-04-16	@ Lucchese	D 1-1	1914	1708	38.8%	25.5%	35.7%	-0.1	51
1939-04-16	Livorno	W 3-2	1704	1727	57.9%	25.0%	17.1%	+3.5	27
1939-04-16	@ Modena	L 2-3	1727	1704	17.1%	25.0%	57.9%	-3.5	26
1939-04-16	Genova 1893	W 2-0	1771	1875	49.1%	25.9%	25.0%	+10.1	36
1939-04-16	@ Napoli	L 0-2	1875	1771	25.0%	25.9%	49.1%	-10.1	42
1939-04-16	Bari	W 2-0	1806	1757	64.3%	23.4%	12.2%	+5.3	39
1939-04-16	@ Roma	L 0-2	1757	1806	12.2%	23.4%	64.3%	-5.3	34
1939-04-16	AC Milan	L 0-1	1809	1810	59.9%	24.6%	15.4%	-10.9	42
1939-04-16	@ Sampdoria	W 1-0	1810	1809	15.4%	24.6%	59.9%	+10.9	30
1939-04-16	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1789	1817	57.3%	25.1%	17.6%	+7.5	29
1939-04-16	@ Triestina	L 0-2	1817	1789	17.6%	25.1%	57.3%	-7.5	35
1939-04-21	Juventus	D 0-0	1820	1813	60.6%	24.4%	14.9%	-2.2	31
1939-04-21	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1813	1820	14.9%	24.4%	60.6%	+2.2	32
1939-04-21	Napoli	D 1-1	1751	1782	57.1%	25.1%	17.7%	-1.7	35
1939-04-21	@ Bari	D 1-1	1782	1751	17.7%	25.1%	57.1%	+1.7	37
1939-04-21	Modena	D 1-1	1914	1708	75.9%	18.1%	6.0%	-3.0	52
1939-04-21	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1708	1914	6.0%	18.1%	75.9%	+3.0	28
1939-04-21	Inter Milan	W 3-0	1865	1885	58.1%	25.0%	16.9%	+10.5	45
1939-04-21	@ Genova 1893	L 0-3	1885	1865	16.9%	25.0%	58.1%	-10.5	44
1939-04-21	Lucchese	W 5-0	1809	1708	68.5%	21.9%	9.7%	+9.8	38
1939-04-21	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-5	1708	1809	9.7%	21.9%	68.5%	-9.8	28
1939-04-21	Roma	W 3-1	1723	1811	50.9%	25.8%	23.3%	+8.2	29
1939-04-21	@ Livorno	L 1-3	1811	1723	23.3%	25.8%	50.9%	-8.2	39
1939-04-21	Triestina	W 1-0	1768	1797	57.3%	25.1%	17.6%	+4.0	31
1939-04-21	@ Novara	L 0-1	1797	1768	17.6%	25.1%	57.3%	-4.0	29
1939-04-21	Sampdoria	W 1-0	1862	1798	65.5%	23.0%	11.5%	+2.7	48
1939-04-21	@ Torino	L 0-1	1798	1862	11.5%	23.0%	65.5%	-2.6	42
1939-04-30	Torino	W 6-1	1875	1865	61.0%	24.4%	14.7%	+12.3	48
1939-04-30	@ Genova 1893	L 1-6	1865	1875	14.7%	24.4%	61.0%	-12.3	48
1939-04-30	Bari	W 5-3	1874	1750	70.2%	21.1%	8.7%	+2.7	47
1939-04-30	@ Inter Milan	L 3-5	1750	1874	8.7%	21.1%	70.2%	-2.7	35
1939-04-30	Sampdoria	W 2-1	1816	1796	61.8%	24.2%	14.0%	+3.1	35
1939-04-30	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1796	1816	14.0%	24.2%	61.8%	-3.0	42
1939-04-30	Novara	L 0-1	1698	1772	52.5%	25.7%	21.8%	-9.6	28
1939-04-30	@ Lucchese	W 1-0	1772	1698	21.8%	25.7%	52.5%	+9.6	34
1939-04-30	Lazio Roma	W 4-0	1711	1819	48.5%	25.9%	25.5%	+19.5	31
1939-04-30	@ Modena	L 0-4	1819	1711	25.5%	25.9%	48.5%	-19.5	38
1939-04-30	Livorno	W 3-1	1783	1732	64.5%	23.4%	12.1%	+4.6	40
1939-04-30	@ Napoli	L 1-3	1732	1783	12.1%	23.4%	64.5%	-4.6	29
1939-04-30	Bologna	L 0-1	1803	1911	48.6%	25.9%	25.5%	-9.0	39
1939-04-30	@ Roma	W 1-0	1911	1803	25.5%	25.9%	48.6%	+9.0	55
1939-04-30	AC Milan	L 0-1	1793	1818	57.5%	25.1%	17.4%	-10.5	29
1939-04-30	@ Triestina	W 1-0	1818	1793	17.4%	25.1%	57.5%	+10.5	34
1939-05-21	Lucchese	W 1-0	1829	1689	71.3%	20.6%	8.1%	+1.8	37
1939-05-21	@ AC Milan	L 0-1	1689	1829	8.1%	20.6%	71.3%	-1.8	28
1939-05-21	Genova 1893	D 0-0	1747	1888	44.5%	26.0%	29.5%	-0.6	36
1939-05-21	@ Bari	D 0-0	1888	1747	29.5%	26.0%	44.5%	+0.7	49
1939-05-21	Napoli	W 4-0	1920	1788	70.8%	20.8%	8.4%	+6.8	58
1939-05-21	@ Bologna	L 0-4	1788	1920	8.4%	20.8%	70.8%	-6.8	40
1939-05-21	Torino	D 1-1	1819	1852	56.7%	25.2%	18.1%	-1.6	36
1939-05-21	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1852	1819	18.1%	25.2%	56.7%	+1.6	49
1939-05-21	Roma	L 1-3	1800	1794	60.5%	24.5%	15.0%	-17.9	38
1939-05-21	@ Lazio Roma	W 3-1	1794	1800	15.0%	24.5%	60.5%	+17.9	42
1939-05-21	Inter Milan	D 2-2	1727	1877	43.3%	25.9%	30.7%	-0.4	30
1939-05-21	@ Livorno	D 2-2	1877	1727	30.7%	25.9%	43.3%	+0.4	48
1939-05-21	Modena	D 0-0	1782	1730	64.5%	23.4%	12.1%	-2.5	35
1939-05-21	@ Novara	D 0-0	1730	1782	12.1%	23.4%	64.5%	+2.6	32
1939-05-21	Triestina	D 2-2	1792	1782	60.9%	24.4%	14.7%	-1.5	43
1939-05-21	@ Sampdoria	D 2-2	1782	1792	14.7%	24.4%	60.9%	+1.5	30
1939-05-28	Livorno	L 0-1	1888	1727	72.9%	19.8%	7.4%	-12.8	49
1939-05-28	@ Genova 1893	W 1-0	1727	1888	7.4%	19.8%	72.9%	+12.8	33
1939-05-28	Bologna	W 2-0	1877	1927	55.1%	25.4%	19.5%	+8.2	51
1939-05-28	@ Inter Milan	L 0-2	1927	1877	19.5%	25.4%	55.1%	-8.2	58
1939-05-28	Sampdoria	W 3-1	1687	1791	49.0%	25.9%	25.0%	+8.8	31
1939-05-28	@ Lucchese	L 1-3	1791	1687	25.0%	25.9%	49.0%	-8.8	43
1939-05-28	AC Milan	D 2-2	1733	1831	49.8%	25.9%	24.3%	-0.8	33
1939-05-28	@ Modena	D 2-2	1831	1733	24.3%	25.9%	49.8%	+0.8	38
1939-05-28	Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1781	1782	59.9%	24.6%	15.5%	-2.1	41
1939-05-28	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1782	1781	15.5%	24.6%	59.9%	+2.1	39
1939-05-28	Novara	W 3-0	1812	1780	62.9%	23.9%	13.2%	+8.4	45
1939-05-28	@ Roma	L 0-3	1780	1812	13.2%	23.9%	62.9%	-8.4	35
1939-05-28	Bari	W 2-1	1854	1746	68.9%	21.7%	9.4%	+2.0	52
1939-05-28	@ Torino	L 1-2	1746	1854	9.4%	21.7%	68.9%	-2.0	36
1939-05-28	Juventus	D 1-1	1784	1817	56.8%	25.2%	18.0%	-1.6	31
1939-05-28	@ Triestina	D 1-1	1817	1784	18.0%	25.2%	56.8%	+1.6	37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1939-05-28	7.37%	Livorno	1727	1	@ Genova 1893	1888	0
2	1939-04-09	8.15%	Napoli	1760	2	@ Inter Milan	1899	1
3	1939-03-05	8.27%	Modena	1693	1	@ Roma	1829	0
4	1938-11-06	11.10%	Modena	1727	1	@ Napoli	1798	0
5	1938-10-16	12.44%	Sampdoria	1788	1	@ Genova 1893	1834	0
6	1939-02-19	12.73%	Triestina	1776	2	@ Roma	1817	1
7	1939-01-08	13.14%	Genova 1893	1834	1	@ Torino	1868	0
8	1938-11-06	13.26%	Roma	1831	1	@ Torino	1863	0
9	1939-01-15	13.54%	Lazio Roma	1814	2	@ Roma	1842	0
10	1939-01-08	13.59%	Triestina	1781	4	@ AC Milan	1808	2
11	1939-04-02	14.25%	Lazio Roma	1808	1	@ Sampdoria	1824	0
12	1938-10-09	14.48%	Torino	1828	3	@ Bologna	1841	0
13	1938-10-16	14.65%	Novara	1758	2	@ Livorno	1769	0
14	1939-05-21	15.01%	Roma	1794	3	@ Lazio Roma	1800	1
15	1939-01-29	15.04%	Roma	1800	1	@ AC Milan	1805	0
16	1938-10-09	15.45%	Genova 1893	1824	2	@ AC Milan	1823	1
17	1939-04-16	15.45%	AC Milan	1810	1	@ Sampdoria	1809	0
18	1938-09-18	15.81%	Bologna	1838	3	@ Genova 1893	1832	2
19	1938-10-09	16.18%	Roma	1824	1	@ Triestina	1814	0
20	1939-01-15	16.23%	Sampdoria	1809	2	@ Triestina	1798	0
21	1938-12-11	16.97%	Bari	1752	2	@ Modena	1731	0
22	1939-02-19	17.17%	Lucchese	1735	1	@ Modena	1712	0
23	1938-11-13	17.35%	Bologna	1838	2	@ Sampdoria	1813	1
24	1939-04-30	17.38%	AC Milan	1818	1	@ Triestina	1793	0
25	1938-10-30	18.53%	Bologna	1818	3	@ Novara	1779	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1939-01-15	34.58	Bologna	6	1854	22.73%	@ Napoli	1	1771	51.48%
2	1938-10-09	30.38	Torino	3	1828	14.48%	@ Bologna	0	1841	61.21%
3	1939-02-26	22.81	Roma	4	1806	20.50%	@ Lucchese	1	1745	53.92%
4	1939-01-15	21.31	Lazio Roma	2	1814	13.54%	@ Roma	0	1842	62.48%
5	1939-01-22	20.84	@ Novara	5	1750	52.88%	Roma	0	1821	21.44%
6	1938-10-16	20.84	Novara	2	1758	14.65%	@ Livorno	0	1769	60.97%
7	1939-01-15	20.21	Sampdoria	2	1809	16.23%	@ Triestina	0	1798	58.95%
8	1938-12-11	19.92	Bari	2	1752	16.97%	@ Modena	0	1731	58.03%
9	1939-04-30	19.48	@ Modena	4	1711	48.52%	Lazio Roma	0	1819	25.54%
10	1939-01-15	19.32	@ Genova 1893	8	1846	64.51%	Bari	0	1794	12.12%
11	1939-03-05	18.73	AC Milan	2	1799	20.21%	@ Livorno	0	1741	54.25%
12	1939-05-21	17.93	Roma	3	1794	15.01%	@ Lazio Roma	1	1800	60.50%
13	1938-10-30	16.75	Bologna	3	1818	18.53%	@ Novara	1	1779	56.18%
14	1939-01-08	16.49	Triestina	4	1781	13.59%	@ AC Milan	2	1808	62.40%
15	1938-10-16	14.04	@ Inter Milan	5	1865	62.13%	Juventus	0	1841	13.79%
16	1939-05-28	12.79	Livorno	1	1727	7.37%	@ Genova 1893	0	1888	72.85%
17	1939-03-05	12.56	Modena	1	1693	8.27%	@ Roma	0	1829	71.03%
18	1939-01-08	12.43	@ Bari	4	1782	48.92%	Inter Milan	1	1887	25.16%
19	1939-04-30	12.33	@ Genova 1893	6	1875	60.96%	Torino	1	1865	14.67%
20	1938-11-06	11.87	Modena	1	1727	11.10%	@ Napoli	0	1798	66.08%
21	1939-04-09	11.87	Napoli	2	1760	8.15%	@ Inter Milan	1	1899	71.26%
22	1938-10-16	11.55	Sampdoria	1	1788	12.44%	@ Genova 1893	0	1834	64.04%
23	1939-01-08	11.39	Genova 1893	1	1834	13.14%	@ Torino	0	1868	63.04%
24	1938-11-06	11.36	Roma	1	1831	13.26%	@ Torino	0	1863	62.87%
25	1939-01-29	11.14	@ Livorno	3	1741	56.82%	Bari	0	1774	17.99%