1940-41 Serie A Season

240 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Bologna

39 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fiorentina

5.60 points above expected

34 points · 28.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bari

8.36 points below expected

17 points · 25.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Bologna	30	16	7	7	39	60	37	+23	35.7	+3.26
2	Inter Milan	30	14	7	9	35	52	42	+10	34.3	+0.68
3	AC Milan	30	12	10	8	34	55	34	+21	30.4	+3.59
4	Fiorentina	30	14	6	10	34	60	49	+11	28.4	+5.60
5	Juventus	30	12	8	10	32	50	47	+3	31.3	+0.66
6	Atalanta	30	11	9	10	31	45	38	+7	28.8	+2.18
7	Torino	30	11	8	11	30	54	50	+4	30.8	-0.79
8	Napoli	30	11	8	11	30	41	48	-7	28.0	+2.02
9	Triestina	30	9	11	10	29	43	39	+4	29.6	-0.63
10	Roma	30	9	11	10	29	48	46	+2	29.7	-0.71
11	Genova 1893	30	10	9	11	29	46	44	+2	30.7	-1.74
12	Venezia	30	8	13	9	29	39	44	-5	27.1	+1.85
13	Livorno	30	9	10	11	28	40	51	-11	30.6	-2.62
14	Lazio Roma	30	7	13	10	27	38	42	-4	29.3	-2.32
15	Novara	30	8	11	11	27	31	38	-7	29.7	-2.67
16	Bari	30	5	7	18	17	31	84	-53	25.4	-8.36

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Bologna	1723	39	35.74	+3.26	81.0%	28	29	32	35	38	44	45
AC Milan	1696	34	30.41	+3.59	85.0%	18	23	28	30	33	38	40
Inter Milan	1693	35	34.32	+0.68	65.0%	25	27	32	35	36	41	43
Genova 1893	1660	29	30.74	-1.74	40.0%	22	24	28	31	33	37	41
Fiorentina	1639	34	28.40	+5.60	94.0%	19	20	26	28	31	35	38
Juventus	1639	32	31.34	+0.66	61.0%	20	25	29	31	33	37	39
Triestina	1636	29	29.63	-0.63	47.0%	21	22	26	30	33	35	38
Roma	1631	29	29.71	-0.71	44.0%	21	23	28	30	32	36	40
Torino	1630	30	30.79	-0.79	47.0%	22	25	28	31	33	37	40
Lazio Roma	1630	27	29.32	-2.32	33.0%	20	24	27	30	32	35	39
Atalanta	1628	31	28.82	+2.18	78.0%	18	23	27	29	31	35	40
Livorno	1622	28	30.62	-2.62	36.0%	21	24	27	30	34	36	41
Napoli	1604	30	27.98	+2.02	70.0%	18	21	25	28	31	35	38
Venezia	1599	29	27.15	+1.85	71.0%	19	21	24	27	30	34	35
Novara	1598	27	29.67	-2.67	33.0%	19	22	27	30	33	36	39
Bari	1469	17	25.36	-8.36	3.0%	13	19	23	25	28	31	36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	ATA	BAR	BOL	FIO	G1	IM	JUV	LR	LIV	NAP	NOV	ROM	TOR	TRI	VEN
AC Milan	—	0-0-2 2.98	2-0-0 3.19	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 2.94	0-2-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.74	1-1-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.74	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.71	0-2-0 2.90	0-2-0 3.07
Atalanta	2-0-0 2.52	—	1-1-0 3.02	1-0-1 2.10	0-2-0 2.79	0-1-1 2.68	0-0-2 2.44	1-0-1 2.59	1-1-0 2.71	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.66	0-1-1 2.48	1-1-0 2.69	1-1-0 2.85
Bari	0-0-2 2.34	0-1-1 2.50	—	1-0-1 1.71	1-0-1 2.29	0-1-1 2.19	0-1-1 1.91	0-0-2 2.10	0-1-1 2.33	0-1-1 2.35	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 2.57	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.52
Bologna	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 3.41	1-0-1 3.81	—	1-0-1 3.32	2-0-0 3.08	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 3.02	1-1-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.18	1-1-0 3.41	2-0-0 3.24	1-1-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.01	1-1-0 3.23	0-1-1 3.51
Fiorentina	0-0-2 2.54	0-2-0 2.71	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-1 2.19	—	2-0-0 2.45	2-0-0 2.19	2-0-0 2.54	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 2.60	1-0-1 2.80	0-1-1 2.67	0-2-0 2.69	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.93
Genova 1893	0-2-0 2.65	1-1-0 2.80	1-1-0 3.34	0-0-2 2.43	0-0-2 3.03	—	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.77	1-1-0 2.72	0-0-2 3.04	0-1-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.76	2-0-0 2.64	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 3.06
Inter Milan	1-1-0 3.07	2-0-0 3.08	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 3.32	1-0-1 3.13	—	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 3.05	1-1-0 3.13	2-0-0 3.39	1-1-0 3.25	1-0-1 3.16	0-1-1 3.07	0-1-1 3.26	1-0-1 3.43
Juventus	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.91	2-0-0 3.42	1-0-1 2.48	0-0-2 2.97	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.53	—	1-1-0 2.83	1-0-1 2.90	0-2-0 3.15	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.84	0-2-0 3.02	0-2-0 3.16
Lazio Roma	0-1-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-0 3.19	0-1-1 2.29	1-0-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.67	—	1-0-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.96	0-2-0 2.83	1-1-0 2.78	0-1-1 2.75	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.98
Livorno	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.94	1-1-0 3.16	0-1-1 2.34	0-1-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.77	0-1-1 2.36	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.76	—	1-1-0 3.00	0-2-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.76	0-0-2 2.68	1-1-0 2.78	1-1-0 3.08
Napoli	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.52	2-0-0 3.04	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.71	2-0-0 2.46	0-0-2 2.12	0-2-0 2.35	0-1-1 2.56	0-1-1 2.49	—	1-0-1 2.58	1-1-0 2.47	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.55	0-2-0 2.74
Novara	1-0-1 2.60	1-0-1 2.61	2-0-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.28	1-1-0 2.81	1-1-0 2.66	0-1-1 2.26	0-0-2 2.56	0-2-0 2.65	0-2-0 2.61	1-0-1 2.91	—	1-1-0 2.61	0-1-1 2.61	0-1-1 2.69	0-1-1 2.88
Roma	1-0-1 2.66	1-1-0 2.82	1-1-0 3.08	0-1-1 2.23	0-2-0 2.80	1-1-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.71	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 3.02	0-1-1 2.89	—	1-1-0 2.53	0-1-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.99
Torino	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-0 3.01	1-0-1 3.33	0-1-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.83	0-0-2 2.83	1-1-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.66	1-1-0 2.73	2-0-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.86	0-1-1 2.97	—	1-0-1 3.01	0-1-1 3.16
Triestina	0-2-0 2.59	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.28	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.64	1-1-0 2.23	0-2-0 2.47	0-1-1 2.66	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 2.80	1-1-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.48	—	1-0-1 2.93
Venezia	0-2-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.95	1-1-0 2.02	1-0-1 2.57	0-1-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.10	0-2-0 2.33	1-0-1 2.51	0-1-1 2.42	0-2-0 2.74	1-1-0 2.62	1-0-1 2.50	1-1-0 2.36	1-0-1 2.56	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.75%	6.04%	5.21%	3.33%	2.08%	1.04%	26.46%
1	6.04%	14.17%	6.04%	2.92%	1.25%	1.67%	32.08%
2	5.21%	6.04%	6.67%	1.04%	1.25%	1.46%	21.67%
3	3.33%	2.92%	1.04%	0.42%	0.42%	0.83%	8.96%
4	2.08%	1.25%	1.25%	0.42%	0.42%	—	5.42%
5+	1.04%	1.67%	1.46%	0.83%	—	0.42%	5.42%
Total	26.46%	32.08%	21.67%	8.96%	5.42%	5.42%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.53
Mean allowed	1.53
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	1.44
Mean total goals/game	3.05
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.126
Sample size (games)	240

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	26.67%
1	—	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
2	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	23.33%
3	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
Total	33.33%	36.67%	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	100%

AC Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	1.13
StdDev scored	1.62
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	2.97
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.199
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
1	—	16.67%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	36.67%
2	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
3	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	36.67%	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Atalanta — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.27
StdDev scored	1.17
StdDev allowed	1.34
Mean total goals/game	2.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.265
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	16.67%	6.67%	33.33%
1	10.00%	10.00%	6.67%	6.67%	—	10.00%	43.33%
2	—	—	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	13.33%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	6.67%
4	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	13.33%	23.33%	10.00%	16.67%	23.33%	100%

Bari — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.03
Mean allowed	2.80
StdDev scored	1.03
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.086
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
1	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	30.00%
2	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	13.33%	—	—	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
5+	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
Total	40.00%	23.33%	20.00%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Bologna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	1.23
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	1.36
Mean total goals/game	3.23
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.061
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
1	3.33%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	30.00%
2	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	30.00%
3	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	10.00%
4	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
5+	3.33%	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
Total	23.33%	33.33%	20.00%	13.33%	3.33%	6.67%	100%

Fiorentina — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	1.63
StdDev scored	1.55
StdDev allowed	1.52
Mean total goals/game	3.63
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.117
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	26.67%
1	6.67%	16.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	33.33%
2	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	3.33%	23.33%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%	—	6.67%
4	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
Total	30.00%	33.33%	16.67%	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	100%

Genova 1893 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.53
Mean allowed	1.47
StdDev scored	1.59
StdDev allowed	1.53
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.050
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	3.33%	16.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	33.33%
1	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
2	—	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	3.33%	—	10.00%	—	—	—	13.33%
5+	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%	10.00%
Total	26.67%	30.00%	33.33%	3.33%	—	6.67%	100%

Inter Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.73
Mean allowed	1.40
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	1.30
Mean total goals/game	3.13
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.012
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	26.67%
1	—	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	6.67%	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	33.33%
3	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
Total	13.33%	40.00%	30.00%	13.33%	—	3.33%	100%

Juventus — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.57
StdDev scored	1.40
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	3.23
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.186
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	30.00%
1	3.33%	16.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	26.67%
2	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	36.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	33.33%	30.00%	6.67%	6.67%	—	100%

Lazio Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.27
Mean allowed	1.40
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	1.13
Mean total goals/game	2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.159
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	—	10.00%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	10.00%	20.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	40.00%
2	—	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	6.67%	26.67%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	13.33%	46.67%	16.67%	13.33%	—	10.00%	100%

Livorno — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.70
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	3.03
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.098
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	33.33%
1	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
2	3.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	3.33%	26.67%
3	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
4	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	10.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	43.33%	23.33%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	100%

Napoli — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.37
Mean allowed	1.60
StdDev scored	1.30
StdDev allowed	1.40
Mean total goals/game	2.97
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.049
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	6.67%	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	46.67%
1	3.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	23.33%
2	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	20.00%
3	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Novara — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.03
Mean allowed	1.27
StdDev scored	1.30
StdDev allowed	1.31
Mean total goals/game	2.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.086
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
1	3.33%	16.67%	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	46.67%
2	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
3	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	26.67%	30.00%	26.67%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	100%

Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.60
Mean allowed	1.53
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	3.13
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.024
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	26.67%
1	6.67%	13.33%	10.00%	—	3.33%	—	33.33%
2	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%	3.33%
4	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	3.33%	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	16.67%
Total	26.67%	26.67%	26.67%	3.33%	10.00%	6.67%	100%

Torino — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.80
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.90
StdDev allowed	1.60
Mean total goals/game	3.47
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.136
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	26.67%
1	10.00%	16.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	40.00%
2	6.67%	—	—	—	3.33%	—	10.00%
3	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	16.67%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	36.67%	26.67%	23.33%	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Triestina — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.43
Mean allowed	1.30
StdDev scored	1.43
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	2.73
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.380
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	10.00%	20.00%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	46.67%
2	6.67%	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	30.00%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	26.67%	13.33%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Venezia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.30
Mean allowed	1.47
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	2.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.357
Games played	30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fiorentina	34	28.4	+5.60
2	AC Milan	34	30.4	+3.59
3	Bologna	39	35.7	+3.26
4	Atalanta	31	28.8	+2.18
5	Napoli	30	28.0	+2.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bari	17	25.4	-8.36
2	Novara	27	29.7	-2.67
3	Livorno	28	30.6	-2.62
4	Lazio Roma	27	29.3	-2.32
5	Genova 1893	29	30.7	-1.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	AC Milan	5	Mar 30 – Apr 27	1 in 140
2	Fiorentina	3	Jan 12 – Jan 26	1 in 130
3	Napoli	3	Jan 19 – Feb 2	1 in 24
4	Venezia	2	Feb 16 – Feb 23	1 in 21
5	Torino	3	Nov 24 – Dec 15	1 in 17

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Torino	4	Feb 23 – Mar 16	1 in 317
2	Genova 1893	4	Oct 20 – Nov 10	1 in 142
3	Bari	5	Dec 8 – Jan 5	1 in 87
4	Lazio Roma	4	Jan 12 – Feb 2	1 in 80
5	Novara	3	Nov 17 – Dec 8	1 in 38

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lazio Roma	8	Feb 9 – Mar 30	1 in 88
2	Atalanta	7	Feb 23 – Apr 6	1 in 37
3	Fiorentina	7	Feb 16 – Mar 30	1 in 35
4	Bologna	9	Dec 22 – Feb 16	1 in 29
5	Torino	7	Oct 27 – Dec 15	1 in 22

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bari	16	Nov 3 – Feb 23	1 in 479
2	Torino	8	Feb 23 – Apr 13	1 in 111
3	Inter Milan	6	Mar 23 – Apr 27	1 in 60
4	Lazio Roma	6	Oct 6 – Nov 10	1 in 30
5	Genova 1893	6	Oct 6 – Nov 10	1 in 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Bologna	42.00%	12.00%	12.00%	7.00%	10.00%	4.00%	4.00%	3.00%	5.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Inter Milan	21.00%	17.00%	16.00%	12.00%	11.00%	3.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	1.00%	—
AC Milan	7.00%	8.00%	7.00%	4.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	10.00%	3.00%	7.00%	1.00%	5.00%	4.00%	3.00%
Fiorentina	1.00%	3.00%	9.00%	5.00%	3.00%	6.00%	7.00%	5.00%	3.00%	5.00%	12.00%	9.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	8.00%
Juventus	6.00%	11.00%	9.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	5.00%	4.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Atalanta	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	5.00%	6.00%	3.00%	9.00%	2.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	6.00%	11.00%	6.00%	6.00%	8.00%
Torino	5.00%	7.00%	6.00%	10.00%	3.00%	9.00%	7.00%	13.00%	10.00%	6.00%	2.00%	8.00%	4.00%	7.00%	3.00%	—
Napoli	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	4.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	2.00%	10.00%	6.00%	13.00%	12.00%	12.00%
Triestina	1.00%	7.00%	6.00%	10.00%	9.00%	6.00%	9.00%	2.00%	3.00%	9.00%	4.00%	9.00%	6.00%	11.00%	3.00%	5.00%
Roma	2.00%	4.00%	3.00%	4.00%	12.00%	13.00%	5.00%	7.00%	5.00%	8.00%	11.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	10.00%	2.00%
Genova 1893	8.00%	7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	9.00%	4.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	4.00%	6.00%	5.00%	10.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%
Venezia	—	1.00%	4.00%	4.00%	2.00%	4.00%	4.00%	8.00%	3.00%	6.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	15.00%	14.00%
Livorno	2.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	2.00%	5.00%	11.00%	5.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	4.00%	3.00%
Lazio Roma	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	8.00%	4.00%	9.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	7.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	2.00%	6.00%	7.00%
Novara	—	7.00%	5.00%	10.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%	8.00%	14.00%	6.00%	1.00%	5.00%	10.00%	5.00%	6.00%	9.00%
Bari	—	1.00%	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	4.00%	—	13.00%	6.00%	11.00%	13.00%	20.00%	25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Bologna	100%	—
Inter Milan	99.0%	1.0%
Genova 1893	97.0%	3.0%
Torino	97.0%	3.0%
Juventus	96.0%	4.0%
AC Milan	93.0%	7.0%
Livorno	93.0%	7.0%
Triestina	92.0%	8.0%
Roma	88.0%	12.0%
Lazio Roma	87.0%	13.0%
Atalanta	86.0%	14.0%
Fiorentina	85.0%	15.0%
Novara	85.0%	15.0%
Napoli	76.0%	24.0%
Venezia	71.0%	29.0%
Bari	55.0%	45.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1940-10-06	Napoli	W 4-0	1642	1599	64.1%	24.1%	11.8%	+8.3	3
1940-10-06	@ AC Milan	L 0-4	1599	1642	11.8%	24.1%	64.1%	-8.3	0
1940-10-06	Livorno	W 2-1	1598	1651	54.9%	26.9%	18.2%	+3.3	3
1940-10-06	@ Atalanta	L 1-2	1651	1598	18.2%	26.9%	54.9%	-3.3	0
1940-10-06	Novara	L 1-2	1597	1615	58.4%	26.1%	15.5%	-8.5	0
1940-10-06	@ Bari	W 2-1	1615	1597	15.5%	26.1%	58.4%	+8.5	3
1940-10-06	Roma	W 2-1	1693	1627	66.2%	23.1%	10.7%	+2.0	3
1940-10-06	@ Bologna	L 1-2	1627	1693	10.7%	23.1%	66.2%	-2.0	0
1940-10-06	Genova 1893	W 4-3	1571	1655	51.5%	27.4%	21.1%	+3.5	3
1940-10-06	@ Fiorentina	L 3-4	1655	1571	21.1%	27.4%	51.5%	-3.5	0
1940-10-06	Juventus	D 2-2	1657	1646	61.3%	25.2%	13.6%	-1.3	1
1940-10-06	@ Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1646	1657	13.6%	25.2%	61.3%	+1.3	1
1940-10-06	Triestina	W 2-1	1652	1616	63.5%	24.3%	12.1%	+2.3	3
1940-10-06	@ Torino	L 1-2	1616	1652	12.1%	24.3%	63.5%	-2.3	0
1940-10-06	Inter Milan	W 1-0	1577	1702	46.8%	27.7%	25.5%	+4.6	3
1940-10-06	@ Venezia	L 0-1	1702	1577	25.5%	27.7%	46.8%	-4.7	0
1940-10-13	Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1652	1656	59.8%	25.7%	14.6%	-1.2	1
1940-10-13	@ Genova 1893	D 2-2	1656	1652	14.6%	25.7%	59.8%	+1.2	2
1940-10-13	Bari	W 5-0	1697	1588	69.8%	21.3%	8.9%	+7.5	3
1940-10-13	@ Inter Milan	L 0-5	1588	1697	8.9%	21.3%	69.8%	-7.5	0
1940-10-13	Bologna	W 3-1	1647	1695	55.4%	26.8%	17.8%	+5.7	4
1940-10-13	@ Juventus	L 1-3	1695	1647	17.8%	26.8%	55.4%	-5.7	3
1940-10-13	Venezia	W 3-1	1647	1582	66.1%	23.2%	10.7%	+3.4	3
1940-10-13	@ Livorno	L 1-3	1582	1647	10.7%	23.2%	66.1%	-3.4	3
1940-10-13	Fiorentina	L 0-2	1591	1575	61.7%	25.0%	13.3%	-17.8	0
1940-10-13	@ Napoli	W 2-0	1575	1591	13.3%	25.0%	61.7%	+17.8	6
1940-10-13	AC Milan	W 2-0	1623	1650	57.6%	26.3%	16.1%	+6.0	6
1940-10-13	@ Novara	L 0-2	1650	1623	16.1%	26.3%	57.6%	-6.0	3
1940-10-13	Torino	W 4-1	1625	1654	57.2%	26.4%	16.4%	+7.4	3
1940-10-13	@ Roma	L 1-4	1654	1625	16.4%	26.4%	57.2%	-7.4	3
1940-10-13	Atalanta	D 3-3	1614	1601	61.3%	25.2%	13.5%	-1.1	1
1940-10-13	@ Triestina	D 3-3	1601	1614	13.5%	25.2%	61.3%	+1.1	4
1940-10-20	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1644	1705	54.1%	27.1%	18.9%	-8.4	3
1940-10-20	@ AC Milan	W 1-0	1705	1644	18.9%	27.1%	54.1%	+8.4	6
1940-10-20	Roma	D 0-0	1602	1632	57.2%	26.4%	16.4%	-1.6	5
1940-10-20	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1632	1602	16.4%	26.4%	57.2%	+1.6	4
1940-10-20	Livorno	D 1-1	1581	1651	53.1%	27.2%	19.7%	-1.2	1
1940-10-20	@ Bari	D 1-1	1651	1581	19.7%	27.2%	53.1%	+1.2	4
1940-10-20	Torino	W 3-0	1690	1647	64.1%	24.1%	11.8%	+6.4	6
1940-10-20	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1647	1690	11.8%	24.1%	64.1%	-6.4	3
1940-10-20	Novara	D 2-2	1592	1629	56.6%	26.6%	16.9%	-1.0	7
1940-10-20	@ Fiorentina	D 2-2	1629	1592	16.9%	26.6%	56.6%	+1.0	7
1940-10-20	Genova 1893	W 2-0	1653	1651	60.4%	25.5%	14.1%	+5.3	7
1940-10-20	@ Juventus	L 0-2	1651	1653	14.1%	25.5%	60.4%	-5.3	1
1940-10-20	Napoli	D 1-1	1657	1573	67.7%	22.4%	9.9%	-2.1	3
1940-10-20	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1573	1657	9.9%	22.4%	67.7%	+2.1	1
1940-10-20	Triestina	W 4-3	1578	1612	56.8%	26.5%	16.7%	+2.9	6
1940-10-20	@ Venezia	L 3-4	1612	1578	16.7%	26.5%	56.8%	-2.9	1
1940-10-27	Bologna	L 0-1	1645	1696	55.1%	26.9%	18.0%	-8.5	1
1940-10-27	@ Genova 1893	W 1-0	1696	1645	18.0%	26.9%	55.1%	+8.5	9
1940-10-27	Fiorentina	L 0-2	1713	1591	70.8%	20.7%	8.5%	-19.7	6
1940-10-27	@ Inter Milan	W 2-0	1591	1713	8.5%	20.7%	70.8%	+19.7	10
1940-10-27	AC Milan	W 1-0	1652	1636	61.7%	25.0%	13.3%	+2.6	7
1940-10-27	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1636	1652	13.3%	25.0%	61.7%	-2.6	3
1940-10-27	Juventus	D 2-2	1575	1658	51.7%	27.4%	20.9%	-0.8	2
1940-10-27	@ Napoli	D 2-2	1658	1575	20.9%	27.4%	51.7%	+0.8	8
1940-10-27	Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1630	1655	57.7%	26.3%	16.0%	-1.7	8
1940-10-27	@ Novara	D 0-0	1655	1630	16.0%	26.3%	57.7%	+1.7	4
1940-10-27	Venezia	W 5-2	1634	1581	65.0%	23.7%	11.3%	+4.4	7
1940-10-27	@ Roma	L 2-5	1581	1634	11.3%	23.7%	65.0%	-4.5	6
1940-10-27	Atalanta	D 1-1	1641	1600	63.9%	24.2%	11.9%	-1.9	4
1940-10-27	@ Torino	D 1-1	1600	1641	11.9%	24.2%	63.9%	+1.9	6
1940-10-27	Bari	L 2-4	1610	1580	62.9%	24.6%	12.5%	-14.0	1
1940-10-27	@ Triestina	W 4-2	1580	1610	12.5%	24.6%	62.9%	+14.0	4
1940-11-03	Triestina	D 1-1	1633	1596	63.6%	24.3%	12.1%	-1.9	4
1940-11-03	@ AC Milan	D 1-1	1596	1633	12.1%	24.3%	63.6%	+1.9	2
1940-11-03	Roma	D 2-2	1594	1638	55.8%	26.7%	17.5%	-1.0	5
1940-11-03	@ Bari	D 2-2	1638	1594	17.5%	26.7%	55.8%	+1.0	8
1940-11-03	Atalanta	W 1-0	1705	1602	69.2%	21.6%	9.2%	+1.8	12
1940-11-03	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1602	1705	9.2%	21.6%	69.2%	-1.8	6
1940-11-03	Livorno	W 5-2	1611	1655	55.9%	26.7%	17.4%	+6.8	13
1940-11-03	@ Fiorentina	L 2-5	1655	1611	17.4%	26.7%	55.9%	-6.8	7
1940-11-03	Napoli	L 1-2	1637	1575	65.8%	23.3%	10.9%	-9.4	1
1940-11-03	@ Genova 1893	W 2-1	1575	1637	10.9%	23.3%	65.8%	+9.4	5
1940-11-03	Novara	W 3-0	1659	1629	63.0%	24.6%	12.5%	+6.8	11
1940-11-03	@ Juventus	L 0-3	1629	1659	12.5%	24.6%	63.0%	-6.8	8
1940-11-03	Inter Milan	L 2-4	1657	1694	56.6%	26.6%	16.9%	-12.8	4
1940-11-03	@ Lazio Roma	W 4-2	1694	1657	16.9%	26.6%	56.6%	+12.8	9
1940-11-03	Torino	D 2-2	1577	1639	53.9%	27.1%	19.0%	-0.9	7
1940-11-03	@ Venezia	D 2-2	1639	1577	19.0%	27.1%	53.9%	+0.9	5
1940-11-10	Venezia	W 3-1	1601	1576	62.5%	24.7%	12.8%	+4.1	9
1940-11-10	@ Atalanta	L 1-3	1576	1601	12.8%	24.7%	62.5%	-4.1	7
1940-11-10	Juventus	W 2-1	1706	1666	63.9%	24.2%	11.9%	+2.2	12
1940-11-10	@ Inter Milan	L 1-2	1666	1706	11.9%	24.2%	63.9%	-2.2	11
1940-11-10	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1648	1644	60.5%	25.4%	14.1%	+2.6	10
1940-11-10	@ Livorno	L 1-2	1644	1648	14.1%	25.4%	60.5%	-2.6	4
1940-11-10	Bologna	D 4-4	1584	1706	47.1%	27.7%	25.2%	-0.4	6
1940-11-10	@ Napoli	D 4-4	1706	1584	25.2%	27.7%	47.1%	+0.4	13
1940-11-10	Genova 1893	W 2-1	1622	1627	59.6%	25.7%	14.6%	+2.7	11
1940-11-10	@ Novara	L 1-2	1627	1622	14.6%	25.7%	59.6%	-2.7	1
1940-11-10	AC Milan	L 1-2	1639	1631	60.9%	25.3%	13.8%	-8.8	8
1940-11-10	@ Roma	W 2-1	1631	1639	13.8%	25.3%	60.9%	+8.8	7
1940-11-10	Bari	W 4-0	1640	1593	64.5%	23.9%	11.6%	+8.2	8
1940-11-10	@ Torino	L 0-4	1593	1640	11.6%	23.9%	64.5%	-8.2	5
1940-11-10	Fiorentina	W 1-0	1597	1618	58.2%	26.2%	15.7%	+3.1	5
1940-11-10	@ Triestina	L 0-1	1618	1597	15.7%	26.2%	58.2%	-3.1	13
1940-11-17	Torino	D 1-1	1640	1648	59.4%	25.8%	14.8%	-1.6	8
1940-11-17	@ AC Milan	D 1-1	1648	1640	14.8%	25.8%	59.4%	+1.6	9
1940-11-17	Atalanta	D 2-2	1585	1605	58.2%	26.1%	15.6%	-1.1	6
1940-11-17	@ Bari	D 2-2	1605	1585	15.6%	26.1%	58.2%	+1.1	10
1940-11-17	Venezia	D 1-1	1707	1572	71.9%	20.1%	8.0%	-2.3	14
1940-11-17	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1572	1707	8.0%	20.1%	71.9%	+2.3	8
1940-11-17	Roma	D 1-1	1615	1630	58.7%	26.0%	15.3%	-1.5	14
1940-11-17	@ Fiorentina	D 1-1	1630	1615	15.3%	26.0%	58.7%	+1.6	9
1940-11-17	Inter Milan	W 2-0	1625	1708	51.6%	27.4%	21.0%	+7.5	4
1940-11-17	@ Genova 1893	L 0-2	1708	1625	21.0%	27.4%	51.6%	-7.5	12
1940-11-17	Livorno	W 2-1	1663	1650	61.4%	25.1%	13.5%	+2.5	14
1940-11-17	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1650	1663	13.5%	25.1%	61.4%	-2.5	10
1940-11-17	Triestina	W 2-1	1642	1601	63.9%	24.2%	11.9%	+2.2	7
1940-11-17	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1601	1642	11.9%	24.2%	63.9%	-2.2	5
1940-11-17	Novara	W 2-0	1584	1625	56.1%	26.7%	17.2%	+6.3	9
1940-11-17	@ Napoli	L 0-2	1625	1584	17.2%	26.7%	56.1%	-6.4	11
1940-11-24	AC Milan	W 2-1	1606	1638	57.0%	26.5%	16.6%	+3.1	13
1940-11-24	@ Atalanta	L 1-2	1638	1606	16.6%	26.5%	57.0%	-3.1	8
1940-11-24	Napoli	W 1-0	1701	1590	70.0%	21.2%	8.8%	+1.7	15
1940-11-24	@ Inter Milan	L 0-1	1590	1701	8.8%	21.2%	70.0%	-1.7	9
1940-11-24	Genova 1893	D 2-2	1648	1632	61.6%	25.1%	13.3%	-1.3	11
1940-11-24	@ Livorno	D 2-2	1632	1648	13.3%	25.1%	61.6%	+1.3	5
1940-11-24	Bologna	L 0-1	1618	1704	51.3%	27.4%	21.2%	-8.0	11
1940-11-24	@ Novara	W 1-0	1704	1618	21.2%	27.4%	51.3%	+8.0	17
1940-11-24	Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1632	1644	59.0%	25.9%	15.1%	-1.6	10
1940-11-24	@ Roma	D 1-1	1644	1632	15.1%	25.9%	59.0%	+1.6	8
1940-11-24	Fiorentina	W 6-2	1649	1613	63.5%	24.3%	12.2%	+6.1	12
1940-11-24	@ Torino	L 2-6	1613	1649	12.2%	24.3%	63.5%	-6.1	14
1940-11-24	Juventus	D 1-1	1598	1666	53.3%	27.2%	19.5%	-1.2	6
1940-11-24	@ Triestina	D 1-1	1666	1598	19.5%	27.2%	53.3%	+1.2	15
1940-11-24	Bari	D 1-1	1574	1584	59.2%	25.9%	14.9%	-1.6	9
1940-11-24	@ Venezia	D 1-1	1584	1574	14.9%	25.9%	59.2%	+1.6	7
1940-12-08	Venezia	D 0-0	1635	1572	65.9%	23.3%	10.8%	-2.3	9
1940-12-08	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1572	1635	10.8%	23.3%	65.9%	+2.2	10
1940-12-08	Bari	W 5-1	1712	1585	71.3%	20.4%	8.3%	+4.6	20
1940-12-08	@ Bologna	L 1-5	1585	1712	8.3%	20.4%	71.3%	-4.6	7
1940-12-08	Atalanta	D 1-1	1607	1609	60.0%	25.6%	14.4%	-1.6	15
1940-12-08	@ Fiorentina	D 1-1	1609	1607	14.4%	25.6%	60.0%	+1.6	14
1940-12-08	Triestina	W 2-1	1634	1597	63.5%	24.3%	12.2%	+2.3	8
1940-12-08	@ Genova 1893	L 1-2	1597	1634	12.2%	24.3%	63.5%	-2.3	6
1940-12-08	Roma	W 3-1	1667	1630	63.6%	24.3%	12.1%	+3.9	18
1940-12-08	@ Juventus	L 1-3	1630	1667	12.1%	24.3%	63.6%	-3.9	10
1940-12-08	Torino	L 0-2	1645	1656	59.2%	25.9%	15.0%	-17.1	8
1940-12-08	@ Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1656	1645	15.0%	25.9%	59.2%	+17.2	15
1940-12-08	Livorno	L 1-2	1588	1647	54.3%	27.0%	18.7%	-8.0	9
1940-12-08	@ Napoli	W 2-1	1647	1588	18.7%	27.0%	54.3%	+8.0	14
1940-12-08	Inter Milan	L 2-4	1610	1703	50.6%	27.5%	21.9%	-11.6	11
1940-12-08	@ Novara	W 4-2	1703	1610	21.9%	27.5%	50.6%	+11.6	18
1940-12-15	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1611	1628	58.5%	26.1%	15.5%	+5.8	17
1940-12-15	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1628	1611	15.5%	26.1%	58.5%	-5.8	8
1940-12-15	AC Milan	L 1-3	1580	1633	54.9%	26.9%	18.2%	-13.9	7
1940-12-15	@ Bari	W 3-1	1633	1580	18.2%	26.9%	54.9%	+13.9	12
1940-12-15	Bologna	W 2-1	1714	1717	59.9%	25.7%	14.5%	+2.7	21
1940-12-15	@ Inter Milan	L 1-2	1717	1714	14.5%	25.7%	59.9%	-2.7	20
1940-12-15	Novara	D 1-1	1654	1599	65.2%	23.6%	11.2%	-2.0	15
1940-12-15	@ Livorno	D 1-1	1599	1654	11.2%	23.6%	65.2%	+2.0	12
1940-12-15	Genova 1893	W 3-0	1626	1636	59.3%	25.8%	14.9%	+8.1	13
1940-12-15	@ Roma	L 0-3	1636	1626	14.9%	25.8%	59.3%	-8.1	8
1940-12-15	Juventus	W 2-0	1673	1671	60.3%	25.5%	14.2%	+5.3	18
1940-12-15	@ Torino	L 0-2	1671	1673	14.2%	25.5%	60.3%	-5.3	18
1940-12-15	Napoli	W 2-0	1595	1580	61.5%	25.1%	13.4%	+5.0	9
1940-12-15	@ Triestina	L 0-2	1580	1595	13.4%	25.1%	61.5%	-5.0	9
1940-12-15	Fiorentina	W 2-1	1575	1606	57.1%	26.4%	16.4%	+3.0	13
1940-12-15	@ Venezia	L 1-2	1606	1575	16.4%	26.4%	57.1%	-3.0	15
1940-12-22	AC Milan	W 4-2	1714	1647	66.2%	23.1%	10.6%	+3.0	23
1940-12-22	@ Bologna	L 2-4	1647	1714	10.6%	23.1%	66.2%	-3.0	12
1940-12-22	Bari	W 4-0	1603	1567	63.5%	24.3%	12.2%	+8.6	18
1940-12-22	@ Fiorentina	L 0-4	1567	1603	12.2%	24.3%	63.5%	-8.6	7
1940-12-22	Torino	W 4-0	1628	1678	55.2%	26.9%	18.0%	+12.5	11
1940-12-22	@ Genova 1893	L 0-4	1678	1628	18.0%	26.9%	55.2%	-12.5	18
1940-12-22	Livorno	W 3-0	1717	1652	66.0%	23.2%	10.8%	+5.8	24
1940-12-22	@ Inter Milan	L 0-3	1652	1717	10.8%	23.2%	66.0%	-5.8	15
1940-12-22	Atalanta	W 3-1	1666	1616	64.7%	23.8%	11.5%	+3.7	21
1940-12-22	@ Juventus	L 1-3	1616	1666	11.5%	23.8%	64.7%	-3.7	17
1940-12-22	Venezia	W 4-1	1622	1578	64.3%	24.0%	11.7%	+5.3	11
1940-12-22	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-4	1578	1622	11.7%	24.0%	64.3%	-5.3	13
1940-12-22	Roma	W 2-1	1575	1634	54.2%	27.0%	18.7%	+3.4	12
1940-12-22	@ Napoli	L 1-2	1634	1575	18.7%	27.0%	54.2%	-3.4	13
1940-12-22	Triestina	D 0-0	1601	1600	60.2%	25.5%	14.2%	-1.9	13
1940-12-22	@ Novara	D 0-0	1600	1601	14.2%	25.5%	60.2%	+1.9	10
1940-12-29	Fiorentina	W 3-1	1644	1611	63.2%	24.5%	12.3%	+4.0	15
1940-12-29	@ AC Milan	L 1-3	1611	1644	12.3%	24.5%	63.2%	-4.0	18
1940-12-29	Genova 1893	D 1-1	1613	1640	57.5%	26.3%	16.2%	-1.5	18
1940-12-29	@ Atalanta	D 1-1	1640	1613	16.2%	26.3%	57.5%	+1.5	12
1940-12-29	Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1558	1628	53.1%	27.2%	19.7%	-7.8	7
1940-12-29	@ Bari	W 2-1	1628	1558	19.7%	27.2%	53.1%	+7.8	14
1940-12-29	Bologna	D 2-2	1647	1717	53.0%	27.2%	19.8%	-0.9	16
1940-12-29	@ Livorno	D 2-2	1717	1647	19.8%	27.2%	53.0%	+0.9	24
1940-12-29	Novara	L 1-3	1631	1599	63.1%	24.5%	12.4%	-15.7	13
1940-12-29	@ Roma	W 3-1	1599	1631	12.4%	24.5%	63.1%	+15.7	16
1940-12-29	Napoli	W 6-2	1665	1579	67.9%	22.3%	9.8%	+4.8	21
1940-12-29	@ Torino	L 2-6	1579	1665	9.8%	22.3%	67.9%	-4.8	12
1940-12-29	Inter Milan	W 2-0	1602	1723	47.3%	27.7%	25.0%	+8.7	13
1940-12-29	@ Triestina	L 0-2	1723	1602	25.0%	27.7%	47.3%	-8.7	24
1940-12-29	Juventus	D 1-1	1572	1669	50.1%	27.6%	22.4%	-0.9	14
1940-12-29	@ Venezia	D 1-1	1669	1572	22.4%	27.6%	50.1%	+0.9	22
1941-01-05	Fiorentina	W 5-3	1718	1607	70.0%	21.2%	8.8%	+2.3	27
1941-01-05	@ Bologna	L 3-5	1607	1718	8.8%	21.2%	70.0%	-2.3	18
1941-01-05	Venezia	W 1-0	1642	1571	66.5%	23.0%	10.5%	+2.0	15
1941-01-05	@ Genova 1893	L 0-1	1571	1642	10.5%	23.0%	66.5%	-2.0	14
1941-01-05	Roma	W 5-1	1714	1615	68.9%	21.8%	9.3%	+5.3	27
1941-01-05	@ Inter Milan	L 1-5	1615	1714	9.3%	21.8%	68.9%	-5.3	13
1941-01-05	Bari	W 5-1	1670	1550	70.7%	20.8%	8.5%	+4.8	25
1941-01-05	@ Juventus	L 1-5	1550	1670	8.5%	20.8%	70.7%	-4.8	7
1941-01-05	AC Milan	D 0-0	1636	1648	59.0%	25.9%	15.1%	-1.8	15
1941-01-05	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1648	1636	15.1%	25.9%	59.0%	+1.8	16
1941-01-05	Triestina	W 2-1	1646	1610	63.4%	24.4%	12.2%	+2.3	19
1941-01-05	@ Livorno	L 1-2	1610	1646	12.2%	24.4%	63.4%	-2.3	13
1941-01-05	Atalanta	W 4-1	1574	1611	56.5%	26.6%	16.9%	+7.7	15
1941-01-05	@ Napoli	L 1-4	1611	1574	16.9%	26.6%	56.5%	-7.7	18
1941-01-05	Torino	D 1-1	1614	1670	54.6%	27.0%	18.4%	-1.3	17
1941-01-05	@ Novara	D 1-1	1670	1614	18.4%	27.0%	54.6%	+1.3	22
1941-01-12	Juventus	D 2-2	1650	1675	57.7%	26.3%	16.0%	-1.1	17
1941-01-12	@ AC Milan	D 2-2	1675	1650	16.0%	26.3%	57.7%	+1.1	26
1941-01-12	Novara	W 2-0	1604	1613	59.2%	25.9%	14.9%	+5.6	21
1941-01-12	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1613	1604	14.9%	25.9%	59.2%	-5.6	17
1941-01-12	Genova 1893	D 1-1	1545	1644	49.9%	27.6%	22.5%	-0.9	8
1941-01-12	@ Bari	D 1-1	1644	1545	22.5%	27.6%	49.9%	+0.9	16
1941-01-12	Triestina	W 2-0	1721	1608	70.1%	21.1%	8.8%	+3.1	30
1941-01-12	@ Bologna	L 0-2	1608	1721	8.8%	21.1%	70.1%	-3.1	13
1941-01-12	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1605	1634	57.4%	26.4%	16.3%	+3.0	21
1941-01-12	@ Fiorentina	L 1-2	1634	1605	16.3%	26.4%	57.4%	-3.0	15
1941-01-12	Livorno	W 3-1	1610	1648	56.4%	26.6%	17.0%	+5.4	16
1941-01-12	@ Roma	L 1-3	1648	1610	17.0%	26.6%	56.4%	-5.4	19
1941-01-12	Inter Milan	D 5-5	1672	1719	55.4%	26.8%	17.8%	-0.7	23
1941-01-12	@ Torino	D 5-5	1719	1672	17.8%	26.8%	55.4%	+0.7	28
1941-01-12	Napoli	D 1-1	1569	1582	59.0%	25.9%	15.1%	-1.6	15
1941-01-12	@ Venezia	D 1-1	1582	1569	15.1%	25.9%	59.0%	+1.6	16
1941-01-19	AC Milan	D 1-1	1645	1649	59.8%	25.7%	14.5%	-1.6	17
1941-01-19	@ Genova 1893	D 1-1	1649	1645	14.5%	25.7%	59.8%	+1.6	18
1941-01-19	Atalanta	W 2-1	1720	1609	69.9%	21.2%	8.8%	+1.6	31
1941-01-19	@ Inter Milan	L 1-2	1609	1720	8.8%	21.2%	69.9%	-1.6	21
1941-01-19	Fiorentina	L 2-3	1676	1608	66.3%	23.1%	10.6%	-8.9	26
1941-01-19	@ Juventus	W 3-2	1608	1676	10.6%	23.1%	66.3%	+8.9	24
1941-01-19	Bologna	L 2-4	1631	1724	50.5%	27.5%	21.9%	-11.6	15
1941-01-19	@ Lazio Roma	W 4-2	1724	1631	21.9%	27.5%	50.5%	+11.6	33
1941-01-19	Torino	L 0-1	1643	1671	57.4%	26.3%	16.2%	-8.9	19
1941-01-19	@ Livorno	W 1-0	1671	1643	16.2%	26.3%	57.4%	+8.9	26
1941-01-19	Bari	W 3-1	1583	1544	63.7%	24.2%	12.0%	+3.9	19
1941-01-19	@ Napoli	L 1-3	1544	1583	12.0%	24.2%	63.7%	-3.9	8
1941-01-19	Venezia	D 0-0	1608	1568	63.8%	24.2%	12.0%	-2.1	18
1941-01-19	@ Novara	D 0-0	1568	1608	12.0%	24.2%	63.8%	+2.1	16
1941-01-19	Roma	W 4-1	1605	1615	59.2%	25.9%	15.0%	+6.8	16
1941-01-19	@ Triestina	L 1-4	1615	1605	15.0%	25.9%	59.2%	-6.8	16
1941-01-26	Fiorentina	L 0-1	1643	1617	62.6%	24.7%	12.7%	-9.5	17
1941-01-26	@ Genova 1893	W 1-0	1617	1643	12.7%	24.7%	62.6%	+9.5	27
1941-01-26	Venezia	W 4-2	1722	1570	73.3%	19.3%	7.5%	+2.0	34
1941-01-26	@ Inter Milan	L 2-4	1570	1722	7.5%	19.3%	73.3%	-2.0	16
1941-01-26	Lazio Roma	W 3-2	1667	1619	64.6%	23.9%	11.5%	+2.0	29
1941-01-26	@ Juventus	L 2-3	1619	1667	11.5%	23.9%	64.6%	-2.0	15
1941-01-26	Atalanta	W 3-1	1634	1608	62.6%	24.7%	12.7%	+4.1	22
1941-01-26	@ Livorno	L 1-3	1608	1634	12.7%	24.7%	62.6%	-4.1	21
1941-01-26	AC Milan	W 3-2	1587	1650	53.8%	27.1%	19.1%	+3.3	22
1941-01-26	@ Napoli	L 2-3	1650	1587	19.1%	27.1%	53.8%	-3.3	18
1941-01-26	Bari	W 4-0	1606	1541	66.0%	23.2%	10.7%	+7.5	21
1941-01-26	@ Novara	L 0-4	1541	1606	10.7%	23.2%	66.0%	-7.5	8
1941-01-26	Bologna	D 1-1	1609	1735	46.6%	27.7%	25.7%	-0.7	17
1941-01-26	@ Roma	D 1-1	1735	1609	25.7%	27.7%	46.6%	+0.7	34
1941-01-26	Torino	W 1-0	1612	1680	53.3%	27.2%	19.5%	+3.8	19
1941-01-26	@ Triestina	L 0-1	1680	1612	19.5%	27.2%	53.3%	-3.8	26
1941-02-02	Novara	W 2-0	1647	1613	63.3%	24.4%	12.3%	+4.6	21
1941-02-02	@ AC Milan	L 0-2	1613	1647	12.3%	24.4%	63.3%	-4.6	21
1941-02-02	Triestina	W 2-0	1603	1616	59.0%	25.9%	15.1%	+5.6	24
1941-02-02	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1616	1603	15.1%	25.9%	59.0%	-5.6	19
1941-02-02	Inter Milan	D 0-0	1533	1724	38.4%	27.4%	34.2%	-0.1	9
1941-02-02	@ Bari	D 0-0	1724	1533	34.2%	27.4%	38.4%	+0.2	35
1941-02-02	Juventus	W 1-0	1736	1669	66.2%	23.2%	10.7%	+2.1	37
1941-02-02	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1669	1736	10.7%	23.2%	66.2%	-2.1	29
1941-02-02	Napoli	L 1-2	1626	1590	63.5%	24.3%	12.2%	-9.1	27
1941-02-02	@ Fiorentina	W 2-1	1590	1626	12.2%	24.3%	63.5%	+9.1	25
1941-02-02	Genova 1893	L 0-1	1617	1634	58.6%	26.0%	15.4%	-9.0	15
1941-02-02	@ Lazio Roma	W 1-0	1634	1617	15.4%	26.0%	58.6%	+9.0	20
1941-02-02	Roma	D 0-0	1676	1608	66.3%	23.1%	10.6%	-2.3	27
1941-02-02	@ Torino	D 0-0	1608	1676	10.6%	23.1%	66.3%	+2.3	18
1941-02-02	Livorno	D 2-2	1568	1638	53.1%	27.2%	19.7%	-0.9	17
1941-02-02	@ Venezia	D 2-2	1638	1568	19.7%	27.2%	53.1%	+0.9	23
1941-02-09	Juventus	W 2-0	1643	1667	57.8%	26.3%	16.0%	+5.9	23
1941-02-09	@ Genova 1893	L 0-2	1667	1643	16.0%	26.3%	57.8%	-5.9	29
1941-02-09	AC Milan	D 2-2	1724	1652	66.7%	22.9%	10.4%	-1.5	36
1941-02-09	@ Inter Milan	D 2-2	1652	1724	10.4%	22.9%	66.7%	+1.5	22
1941-02-09	Bari	W 1-0	1639	1533	69.5%	21.4%	9.0%	+1.7	26
1941-02-09	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1533	1639	9.0%	21.4%	69.5%	-1.7	9
1941-02-09	Lazio Roma	L 0-2	1599	1608	59.3%	25.8%	14.9%	-17.2	25
1941-02-09	@ Napoli	W 2-0	1608	1599	14.9%	25.8%	59.3%	+17.2	18
1941-02-09	Fiorentina	W 2-0	1608	1617	59.3%	25.8%	14.8%	+5.5	24
1941-02-09	@ Novara	L 0-2	1617	1608	14.8%	25.8%	59.3%	-5.5	27
1941-02-09	Atalanta	W 1-0	1610	1609	60.3%	25.5%	14.2%	+2.8	21
1941-02-09	@ Roma	L 0-1	1609	1610	14.2%	25.5%	60.3%	-2.8	24
1941-02-09	Bologna	D 0-0	1674	1738	53.7%	27.1%	19.2%	-1.3	28
1941-02-09	@ Torino	D 0-0	1738	1674	19.2%	27.1%	53.7%	+1.3	38
1941-02-09	Venezia	W 3-1	1610	1567	64.1%	24.1%	11.8%	+3.8	22
1941-02-09	@ Triestina	L 1-3	1567	1610	11.8%	24.1%	64.1%	-3.8	17
1941-02-16	Livorno	W 5-0	1653	1641	61.3%	25.2%	13.5%	+11.8	25
1941-02-16	@ AC Milan	L 0-5	1641	1653	13.5%	25.2%	61.3%	-11.8	26
1941-02-16	Torino	L 0-1	1606	1672	53.5%	27.1%	19.4%	-8.3	24
1941-02-16	@ Atalanta	W 1-0	1672	1606	19.4%	27.1%	53.5%	+8.3	31
1941-02-16	Triestina	L 0-3	1531	1614	51.7%	27.4%	20.9%	-22.1	9
1941-02-16	@ Bari	W 3-0	1614	1531	20.9%	27.4%	51.7%	+22.1	25
1941-02-16	Genova 1893	W 4-1	1739	1648	68.3%	22.1%	9.6%	+4.3	41
1941-02-16	@ Bologna	L 1-4	1648	1739	9.6%	22.1%	68.3%	-4.3	23
1941-02-16	Inter Milan	W 2-1	1612	1722	48.5%	27.7%	23.8%	+4.2	30
1941-02-16	@ Fiorentina	L 1-2	1722	1612	23.8%	27.7%	48.5%	-4.2	36
1941-02-16	Napoli	D 0-0	1661	1582	67.3%	22.6%	10.1%	-2.3	30
1941-02-16	@ Juventus	D 0-0	1582	1661	10.1%	22.6%	67.3%	+2.3	26
1941-02-16	Novara	D 0-0	1625	1614	61.2%	25.2%	13.6%	-1.9	19
1941-02-16	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1614	1625	13.6%	25.2%	61.2%	+1.9	25
1941-02-16	Roma	W 1-0	1563	1613	55.2%	26.8%	17.9%	+3.5	20
1941-02-16	@ Venezia	L 0-1	1613	1563	17.9%	26.8%	55.2%	-3.5	21
1941-02-23	Bologna	W 2-0	1598	1744	44.2%	27.7%	28.0%	+9.4	27
1941-02-23	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1744	1598	28.0%	27.7%	44.2%	-9.4	41
1941-02-23	Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1718	1623	68.6%	21.9%	9.5%	-2.2	37
1941-02-23	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1623	1718	9.5%	21.9%	68.6%	+2.2	20
1941-02-23	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1629	1616	61.4%	25.1%	13.5%	-1.7	27
1941-02-23	@ Livorno	D 1-1	1616	1629	13.5%	25.1%	61.4%	+1.7	31
1941-02-23	Genova 1893	W 1-0	1585	1644	54.2%	27.0%	18.8%	+3.6	29
1941-02-23	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1644	1585	18.8%	27.0%	54.2%	-3.6	23
1941-02-23	Juventus	L 1-2	1616	1659	55.9%	26.7%	17.4%	-8.2	25
1941-02-23	@ Novara	W 2-1	1659	1616	17.4%	26.7%	55.9%	+8.2	33
1941-02-23	Bari	W 6-2	1610	1509	69.1%	21.7%	9.2%	+4.5	24
1941-02-23	@ Roma	L 2-6	1509	1610	9.2%	21.7%	69.1%	-4.5	9
1941-02-23	Venezia	L 0-2	1681	1567	70.2%	21.1%	8.7%	-19.6	31
1941-02-23	@ Torino	W 2-0	1567	1681	8.7%	21.1%	70.2%	+19.6	23
1941-02-23	AC Milan	D 0-0	1636	1665	57.3%	26.4%	16.3%	-1.6	26
1941-02-23	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1665	1636	16.3%	26.4%	57.3%	+1.6	26
1941-03-02	Roma	L 1-3	1666	1614	65.0%	23.7%	11.3%	-16.0	26
1941-03-02	@ AC Milan	W 3-1	1614	1666	11.3%	23.7%	65.0%	+16.0	27
1941-03-02	Torino	W 1-0	1505	1661	42.9%	27.7%	29.4%	+5.2	12
1941-03-02	@ Bari	L 0-1	1661	1505	29.4%	27.7%	42.9%	-5.2	31
1941-03-02	Napoli	W 3-0	1734	1588	72.8%	19.6%	7.6%	+3.8	44
1941-03-02	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1588	1734	7.6%	19.6%	72.8%	-3.9	29
1941-03-02	Triestina	W 6-3	1618	1634	58.6%	26.0%	15.4%	+5.6	34
1941-03-02	@ Fiorentina	L 3-6	1634	1618	15.4%	26.0%	58.6%	-5.6	26
1941-03-02	Novara	D 1-1	1641	1608	63.2%	24.5%	12.3%	-1.8	24
1941-03-02	@ Genova 1893	D 1-1	1608	1641	12.3%	24.5%	63.2%	+1.9	26
1941-03-02	Inter Milan	W 2-0	1667	1716	55.3%	26.8%	17.8%	+6.5	36
1941-03-02	@ Juventus	L 0-2	1716	1667	17.8%	26.8%	55.3%	-6.6	37
1941-03-02	Livorno	W 1-0	1626	1627	60.0%	25.6%	14.4%	+2.9	23
1941-03-02	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1627	1626	14.4%	25.6%	60.0%	-2.8	27
1941-03-02	Atalanta	D 1-1	1586	1607	58.1%	26.2%	15.7%	-1.5	24
1941-03-02	@ Venezia	D 1-1	1607	1586	15.7%	26.2%	58.1%	+1.5	28
1941-03-09	Bari	W 4-0	1609	1510	69.0%	21.8%	9.3%	+6.4	31
1941-03-09	@ Atalanta	L 0-4	1510	1609	9.3%	21.8%	69.0%	-6.4	12
1941-03-09	Genova 1893	W 4-0	1709	1639	66.5%	23.0%	10.5%	+7.3	40
1941-03-09	@ Inter Milan	L 0-4	1639	1709	10.5%	23.0%	66.5%	-7.3	24
1941-03-09	Juventus	W 1-0	1624	1674	55.2%	26.8%	17.9%	+3.5	30
1941-03-09	@ Livorno	L 0-1	1674	1624	17.9%	26.8%	55.2%	-3.5	36
1941-03-09	Napoli	W 1-0	1610	1584	62.5%	24.7%	12.8%	+2.5	29
1941-03-09	@ Novara	L 0-1	1584	1610	12.8%	24.7%	62.5%	-2.5	29
1941-03-09	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1630	1623	60.8%	25.4%	13.9%	-1.7	28
1941-03-09	@ Roma	D 1-1	1623	1630	13.9%	25.4%	60.8%	+1.7	35
1941-03-09	AC Milan	L 0-4	1656	1650	60.7%	25.4%	13.9%	-33.2	31
1941-03-09	@ Torino	W 4-0	1650	1656	13.9%	25.4%	60.7%	+33.2	29
1941-03-09	Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1629	1628	60.2%	25.6%	14.3%	-1.8	27
1941-03-09	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1628	1629	14.3%	25.6%	60.2%	+1.8	24
1941-03-09	Bologna	W 1-0	1585	1738	43.3%	27.7%	29.0%	+5.1	27
1941-03-09	@ Venezia	L 0-1	1738	1585	29.0%	27.7%	43.3%	-5.1	44
1941-03-16	Atalanta	L 0-3	1684	1615	66.4%	23.1%	10.6%	-27.4	29
1941-03-16	@ AC Milan	W 3-0	1615	1684	10.6%	23.1%	66.4%	+27.3	34
1941-03-16	Venezia	W 3-2	1503	1590	51.3%	27.4%	21.3%	+3.6	15
1941-03-16	@ Bari	L 2-3	1590	1503	21.3%	27.4%	51.3%	-3.6	27
1941-03-16	Novara	W 3-0	1733	1612	70.8%	20.8%	8.5%	+4.4	47
1941-03-16	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1612	1733	8.5%	20.8%	70.8%	-4.4	29
1941-03-16	Torino	W 2-1	1625	1623	60.4%	25.5%	14.1%	+2.6	38
1941-03-16	@ Fiorentina	L 1-2	1623	1625	14.1%	25.5%	60.4%	-2.6	31
1941-03-16	Livorno	W 3-0	1631	1628	60.5%	25.4%	14.0%	+7.6	27
1941-03-16	@ Genova 1893	L 0-3	1628	1631	14.0%	25.4%	60.5%	-7.6	30
1941-03-16	Triestina	D 1-1	1670	1627	64.1%	24.1%	11.8%	-1.9	37
1941-03-16	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1627	1670	11.8%	24.1%	64.1%	+1.9	28
1941-03-16	Roma	W 2-0	1630	1628	60.3%	25.5%	14.2%	+5.3	27
1941-03-16	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-2	1628	1630	14.2%	25.5%	60.3%	-5.3	28
1941-03-16	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1582	1717	45.6%	27.7%	26.7%	-7.2	29
1941-03-16	@ Napoli	W 1-0	1717	1582	26.7%	27.7%	45.6%	+7.2	43
1941-03-23	Fiorentina	D 0-0	1643	1628	61.6%	25.1%	13.4%	-2.0	35
1941-03-23	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1628	1643	13.4%	25.1%	61.6%	+2.0	39
1941-03-23	Bologna	W 1-0	1507	1737	33.1%	26.7%	40.1%	+6.5	18
1941-03-23	@ Bari	L 0-1	1737	1507	40.1%	26.7%	33.1%	-6.5	47
1941-03-23	Novara	D 0-0	1724	1608	70.4%	21.0%	8.7%	-2.5	44
1941-03-23	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1608	1724	8.7%	21.0%	70.4%	+2.5	30
1941-03-23	Napoli	D 1-1	1620	1575	64.3%	24.0%	11.7%	-1.9	31
1941-03-23	@ Livorno	D 1-1	1575	1620	11.7%	24.0%	64.3%	+1.9	30
1941-03-23	Juventus	W 3-0	1623	1668	55.7%	26.7%	17.6%	+9.4	31
1941-03-23	@ Roma	L 0-3	1668	1623	17.6%	26.7%	55.7%	-9.4	37
1941-03-23	Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1620	1636	58.7%	26.0%	15.3%	-1.5	32
1941-03-23	@ Torino	D 1-1	1636	1620	15.3%	26.0%	58.7%	+1.5	28
1941-03-23	Genova 1893	W 6-2	1629	1639	59.2%	25.9%	15.0%	+7.5	31
1941-03-23	@ Triestina	L 2-6	1639	1629	15.0%	25.9%	59.2%	-7.5	27
1941-03-23	AC Milan	D 0-0	1586	1656	53.1%	27.2%	19.7%	-1.3	28
1941-03-23	@ Venezia	D 0-0	1656	1586	19.7%	27.2%	53.1%	+1.3	30
1941-03-30	Bari	W 5-0	1658	1514	72.7%	19.6%	7.7%	+6.3	33
1941-03-30	@ AC Milan	L 0-5	1514	1658	7.7%	19.6%	72.7%	-6.3	18
1941-03-30	Inter Milan	W 5-0	1731	1721	61.1%	25.3%	13.7%	+12.0	50
1941-03-30	@ Bologna	L 0-5	1721	1731	13.7%	25.3%	61.1%	-12.0	44
1941-03-30	Venezia	W 2-1	1630	1585	64.2%	24.0%	11.7%	+2.2	42
1941-03-30	@ Fiorentina	L 1-2	1585	1630	11.7%	24.0%	64.2%	-2.2	28
1941-03-30	Roma	D 0-0	1632	1632	60.1%	25.6%	14.3%	-1.8	28
1941-03-30	@ Genova 1893	D 0-0	1632	1632	14.3%	25.6%	60.1%	+1.8	32
1941-03-30	Torino	W 2-1	1659	1618	63.9%	24.2%	11.9%	+2.2	40
1941-03-30	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1618	1659	11.9%	24.2%	63.9%	-2.2	32
1941-03-30	Atalanta	D 1-1	1637	1641	59.8%	25.7%	14.5%	-1.6	29
1941-03-30	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1641	1637	14.5%	25.7%	59.8%	+1.6	36
1941-03-30	Triestina	W 1-0	1576	1636	54.2%	27.0%	18.8%	+3.6	33
1941-03-30	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1636	1576	18.8%	27.0%	54.2%	-3.6	31
1941-03-30	Livorno	D 0-0	1610	1618	59.4%	25.8%	14.8%	-1.8	31
1941-03-30	@ Novara	D 0-0	1618	1610	14.8%	25.8%	59.4%	+1.8	32
1941-04-06	Bologna	W 5-1	1664	1743	52.1%	27.3%	20.5%	+11.7	36
1941-04-06	@ AC Milan	L 1-5	1743	1664	20.5%	27.3%	52.1%	-11.7	50
1941-04-06	Juventus	W 3-0	1642	1661	58.3%	26.1%	15.6%	+8.4	39
1941-04-06	@ Atalanta	L 0-3	1661	1642	15.6%	26.1%	58.3%	-8.4	40
1941-04-06	Fiorentina	W 1-0	1507	1632	46.9%	27.7%	25.4%	+4.7	21
1941-04-06	@ Bari	L 0-1	1632	1507	25.4%	27.7%	46.9%	-4.7	42
1941-04-06	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1620	1709	50.9%	27.5%	21.6%	-1.0	33
1941-04-06	@ Livorno	D 1-1	1709	1620	21.6%	27.5%	50.9%	+1.0	45
1941-04-06	Napoli	D 2-2	1634	1580	65.1%	23.6%	11.2%	-1.5	33
1941-04-06	@ Roma	D 2-2	1580	1634	11.2%	23.6%	65.1%	+1.5	34
1941-04-06	Genova 1893	L 3-6	1616	1630	58.9%	25.9%	15.2%	-16.8	32
1941-04-06	@ Torino	W 6-3	1630	1616	15.2%	25.9%	58.9%	+16.8	31
1941-04-06	Novara	W 1-0	1633	1609	62.4%	24.8%	12.8%	+2.5	34
1941-04-06	@ Triestina	L 0-1	1609	1633	12.8%	24.8%	62.4%	-2.5	31
1941-04-06	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1583	1635	54.9%	26.9%	18.2%	+6.7	31
1941-04-06	@ Venezia	L 0-2	1635	1583	18.2%	26.9%	54.9%	-6.7	29
1941-04-13	Livorno	W 3-0	1731	1619	70.0%	21.1%	8.8%	+4.6	53
1941-04-13	@ Bologna	L 0-3	1619	1731	8.8%	21.1%	70.0%	-4.6	33
1941-04-13	AC Milan	L 2-3	1627	1676	55.4%	26.8%	17.8%	-7.7	42
1941-04-13	@ Fiorentina	W 3-2	1676	1627	17.8%	26.8%	55.4%	+7.7	39
1941-04-13	Atalanta	W 2-0	1646	1651	59.8%	25.7%	14.5%	+5.4	34
1941-04-13	@ Genova 1893	L 0-2	1651	1646	14.5%	25.7%	59.8%	-5.4	39
1941-04-13	Triestina	D 1-1	1710	1635	66.9%	22.8%	10.3%	-2.1	46
1941-04-13	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1635	1710	10.3%	22.8%	66.9%	+2.1	35
1941-04-13	Venezia	D 2-2	1653	1589	65.9%	23.3%	10.8%	-1.5	41
1941-04-13	@ Juventus	D 2-2	1589	1653	10.8%	23.3%	65.9%	+1.5	32
1941-04-13	Bari	D 2-2	1629	1512	70.4%	20.9%	8.6%	-1.7	30
1941-04-13	@ Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1512	1629	8.6%	20.9%	70.4%	+1.7	22
1941-04-13	Torino	W 2-1	1582	1599	58.4%	26.1%	15.5%	+2.9	37
1941-04-13	@ Napoli	L 1-2	1599	1582	15.5%	26.1%	58.4%	-2.9	32
1941-04-13	Roma	D 1-1	1606	1633	57.6%	26.3%	16.1%	-1.5	32
1941-04-13	@ Novara	D 1-1	1633	1606	16.1%	26.3%	57.6%	+1.5	34
1941-04-20	Lazio Roma	W 3-0	1683	1627	65.3%	23.6%	11.2%	+6.0	42
1941-04-20	@ AC Milan	L 0-3	1627	1683	11.2%	23.6%	65.3%	-6.0	30
1941-04-20	Napoli	W 4-0	1645	1584	65.7%	23.4%	10.9%	+7.7	42
1941-04-20	@ Atalanta	L 0-4	1584	1645	10.9%	23.4%	65.7%	-7.7	37
1941-04-20	Juventus	L 3-5	1514	1651	45.2%	27.7%	27.0%	-9.9	22
1941-04-20	@ Bari	W 5-3	1651	1514	27.0%	27.7%	45.2%	+9.9	44
1941-04-20	Bologna	W 3-0	1619	1736	47.8%	27.7%	24.5%	+12.4	45
1941-04-20	@ Fiorentina	L 0-3	1736	1619	24.5%	27.7%	47.8%	-12.4	53
1941-04-20	Inter Milan	W 3-0	1634	1708	52.7%	27.3%	20.1%	+10.5	37
1941-04-20	@ Roma	L 0-3	1708	1634	20.1%	27.3%	52.7%	-10.5	46
1941-04-20	Novara	W 5-1	1597	1605	59.4%	25.8%	14.8%	+8.7	35
1941-04-20	@ Torino	L 1-5	1605	1597	14.8%	25.8%	59.4%	-8.7	32
1941-04-20	Livorno	D 1-1	1637	1614	62.3%	24.8%	12.9%	-1.8	36
1941-04-20	@ Triestina	D 1-1	1614	1637	12.9%	24.8%	62.3%	+1.8	34
1941-04-20	Genova 1893	D 0-0	1591	1652	54.0%	27.1%	18.9%	-1.4	33
1941-04-20	@ Venezia	D 0-0	1652	1591	18.9%	27.1%	54.0%	+1.4	35
1941-04-27	Bari	W 6-1	1653	1504	73.1%	19.4%	7.5%	+5.0	38
1941-04-27	@ Genova 1893	L 1-6	1504	1653	7.5%	19.4%	73.1%	-5.1	22
1941-04-27	Torino	L 0-2	1698	1605	68.4%	22.1%	9.6%	-19.3	46
1941-04-27	@ Inter Milan	W 2-0	1605	1698	9.6%	22.1%	68.4%	+19.3	38
1941-04-27	AC Milan	L 1-2	1661	1689	57.4%	26.3%	16.2%	-8.4	44
1941-04-27	@ Juventus	W 2-1	1689	1661	16.2%	26.3%	57.4%	+8.3	45
1941-04-27	Fiorentina	W 4-1	1621	1632	59.2%	25.9%	15.0%	+6.8	33
1941-04-27	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-4	1632	1621	15.0%	25.9%	59.2%	-6.8	45
1941-04-27	Roma	W 6-1	1616	1645	57.4%	26.4%	16.3%	+11.7	37
1941-04-27	@ Livorno	L 1-6	1645	1616	16.3%	26.4%	57.4%	-11.7	37
1941-04-27	Venezia	D 1-1	1577	1590	58.9%	25.9%	15.1%	-1.6	38
1941-04-27	@ Napoli	D 1-1	1590	1577	15.1%	25.9%	58.9%	+1.6	34
1941-04-27	Atalanta	W 5-1	1596	1653	54.5%	27.0%	18.6%	+10.7	35
1941-04-27	@ Novara	L 1-5	1653	1596	18.6%	27.0%	54.5%	-10.7	42
1941-04-27	Bologna	D 0-0	1635	1723	51.1%	27.5%	21.4%	-1.1	37
1941-04-27	@ Triestina	D 0-0	1723	1635	21.4%	27.5%	51.1%	+1.1	54
1941-05-04	Genova 1893	D 1-1	1698	1658	63.8%	24.2%	12.0%	-1.9	46
1941-05-04	@ AC Milan	D 1-1	1658	1698	12.0%	24.2%	63.8%	+1.9	39
1941-05-04	Inter Milan	L 1-3	1642	1678	56.6%	26.5%	16.9%	-14.3	42
1941-05-04	@ Atalanta	W 3-1	1678	1642	16.9%	26.5%	56.6%	+14.3	49
1941-05-04	Napoli	L 0-4	1499	1575	52.4%	27.3%	20.3%	-29.2	22
1941-05-04	@ Bari	W 4-0	1575	1499	20.3%	27.3%	52.4%	+29.2	41
1941-05-04	Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1724	1628	68.7%	21.9%	9.4%	-1.6	55
1941-05-04	@ Bologna	D 2-2	1628	1724	9.4%	21.9%	68.7%	+1.6	34
1941-05-04	Juventus	W 5-0	1625	1653	57.5%	26.3%	16.2%	+14.1	48
1941-05-04	@ Fiorentina	L 0-5	1653	1625	16.2%	26.3%	57.5%	-14.1	44
1941-05-04	Triestina	D 0-0	1633	1634	60.1%	25.6%	14.3%	-1.8	38
1941-05-04	@ Roma	D 0-0	1634	1633	14.3%	25.6%	60.1%	+1.8	38
1941-05-04	Livorno	W 5-2	1625	1628	59.9%	25.7%	14.5%	+5.7	41
1941-05-04	@ Torino	L 2-5	1628	1625	14.5%	25.7%	59.9%	-5.7	37
1941-05-04	Novara	W 3-0	1591	1607	58.7%	26.0%	15.3%	+8.3	37
1941-05-04	@ Venezia	L 0-3	1607	1591	15.3%	26.0%	58.7%	-8.3	35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1940-10-27	8.45%	Fiorentina	1591	2	@ Inter Milan	1713	0
2	1941-02-23	8.73%	Venezia	1567	2	@ Torino	1681	0
3	1941-04-27	9.56%	Torino	1605	2	@ Inter Milan	1698	0
4	1941-03-16	10.57%	Atalanta	1615	3	@ AC Milan	1684	0
5	1941-01-19	10.58%	Fiorentina	1608	3	@ Juventus	1676	2
6	1940-11-03	10.86%	Napoli	1575	2	@ Genova 1893	1637	1
7	1941-03-02	11.33%	Roma	1614	3	@ AC Milan	1666	1
8	1941-02-02	12.17%	Napoli	1590	2	@ Fiorentina	1626	1
9	1940-12-29	12.37%	Novara	1599	3	@ Roma	1631	1
10	1940-10-27	12.51%	Bari	1580	4	@ Triestina	1610	2
11	1941-01-26	12.70%	Fiorentina	1617	1	@ Genova 1893	1643	0
12	1940-10-13	13.27%	Fiorentina	1575	2	@ Napoli	1591	0
13	1940-11-10	13.78%	AC Milan	1631	2	@ Roma	1639	1
14	1941-03-09	13.93%	AC Milan	1650	4	@ Torino	1656	0
15	1941-02-09	14.86%	Lazio Roma	1608	2	@ Napoli	1599	0
16	1940-12-08	14.96%	Torino	1656	2	@ Lazio Roma	1645	0
17	1941-04-06	15.18%	Genova 1893	1630	6	@ Torino	1616	3
18	1941-02-02	15.38%	Genova 1893	1634	1	@ Lazio Roma	1617	0
19	1940-10-06	15.48%	Novara	1615	2	@ Bari	1597	1
20	1941-01-19	16.23%	Torino	1671	1	@ Livorno	1643	0
21	1941-04-27	16.23%	AC Milan	1689	2	@ Juventus	1661	1
22	1941-05-04	16.85%	Inter Milan	1678	3	@ Atalanta	1642	1
23	1940-11-03	16.87%	Inter Milan	1694	4	@ Lazio Roma	1657	2
24	1941-02-23	17.38%	Juventus	1659	2	@ Novara	1616	1
25	1941-04-13	17.84%	AC Milan	1676	3	@ Fiorentina	1627	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1941-03-09	33.24	AC Milan	4	1650	13.93%	@ Torino	0	1656	60.67%
2	1941-05-04	29.20	Napoli	4	1575	20.33%	@ Bari	0	1499	52.36%
3	1941-03-16	27.35	Atalanta	3	1615	10.57%	@ AC Milan	0	1684	66.36%
4	1941-02-16	22.11	Triestina	3	1614	20.90%	@ Bari	0	1531	51.71%
5	1940-10-27	19.72	Fiorentina	2	1591	8.45%	@ Inter Milan	0	1713	70.84%
6	1941-02-23	19.61	Venezia	2	1567	8.73%	@ Torino	0	1681	70.20%
7	1941-04-27	19.26	Torino	2	1605	9.56%	@ Inter Milan	0	1698	68.40%
8	1940-10-13	17.77	Fiorentina	2	1575	13.27%	@ Napoli	0	1591	61.69%
9	1941-02-09	17.19	Lazio Roma	2	1608	14.86%	@ Napoli	0	1599	59.32%
10	1940-12-08	17.15	Torino	2	1656	14.96%	@ Lazio Roma	0	1645	59.18%
11	1941-04-06	16.76	Genova 1893	6	1630	15.18%	@ Torino	3	1616	58.87%
12	1941-03-02	16.05	Roma	3	1614	11.33%	@ AC Milan	1	1666	64.96%
13	1940-12-29	15.69	Novara	3	1599	12.37%	@ Roma	1	1631	63.15%
14	1941-05-04	14.29	Inter Milan	3	1678	16.85%	@ Atalanta	1	1642	56.61%
15	1941-05-04	14.06	@ Fiorentina	5	1625	57.45%	Juventus	0	1653	16.21%
16	1940-10-27	13.99	Bari	4	1580	12.51%	@ Triestina	2	1610	62.92%
17	1940-12-15	13.91	AC Milan	3	1633	18.18%	@ Bari	1	1580	54.93%
18	1940-11-03	12.77	Inter Milan	4	1694	16.87%	@ Lazio Roma	2	1657	56.58%
19	1940-12-22	12.52	@ Genova 1893	4	1628	55.18%	Torino	0	1678	17.98%
20	1941-04-20	12.36	@ Fiorentina	3	1619	47.84%	Bologna	0	1736	24.47%
21	1941-03-30	11.95	@ Bologna	5	1731	61.06%	Inter Milan	0	1721	13.68%
22	1941-02-16	11.79	@ AC Milan	5	1653	61.34%	Livorno	0	1641	13.50%
23	1941-04-06	11.70	@ AC Milan	5	1664	52.12%	Bologna	1	1743	20.55%
24	1941-04-27	11.69	@ Livorno	6	1616	57.37%	Roma	1	1645	16.27%
25	1940-12-08	11.57	Inter Milan	4	1703	21.89%	@ Novara	2	1610	50.61%