1978-79 Serie A Season

240 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

AC Milan

44 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Perugia

7.96 points above expected

41 points · 33.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hellas Verona

8.84 points below expected

15 points · 23.84 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	AC Milan	30	17	10	3	44	46	19	+27	36.9	+7.09
2	Perugia	30	11	19	0	41	34	16	+18	33.0	+7.96
3	Juventus	30	12	13	5	37	40	23	+17	37.2	-0.19
4	Inter Milan	30	10	16	4	36	38	24	+14	34.6	+1.36
5	Torino	30	11	14	5	36	35	23	+12	35.4	+0.60
6	Napoli	30	9	14	7	32	23	21	+2	29.1	+2.90
7	Fiorentina	30	10	12	8	32	26	26	0	29.5	+2.49
8	Lazio Roma	30	9	11	10	29	35	40	-5	28.9	+0.09
9	Catanzaro	30	6	16	8	28	23	30	-7	28.0	+0.03
10	Ascoli	30	7	12	11	26	26	31	-5	27.5	-1.51
11	Avellino	30	6	14	10	26	19	26	-7	29.0	-2.98
12	Roma	30	8	10	12	26	24	32	-8	26.6	-0.59
13	Bologna	30	4	16	10	24	23	30	-7	25.7	-1.71
14	Lanerossi Vicenza	30	5	14	11	24	29	42	-13	29.2	-5.20
15	Atalanta	30	6	12	12	24	20	33	-13	25.5	-1.50
16	Hellas Verona	30	2	11	17	15	14	39	-25	23.8	-8.84

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
AC Milan	1816	44	36.91	+7.09	98.0%	22	30	35	37	39	42	47
Juventus	1785	37	37.19	-0.19	52.0%	29	31	34	37	40	43	49
Perugia	1749	41	33.04	+7.96	99.0%	26	27	30	33	35	40	42
Inter Milan	1735	36	34.64	+1.36	68.0%	25	28	32	34	37	41	43
Torino	1731	36	35.40	+0.60	62.0%	24	30	33	35	38	42	50
Napoli	1668	32	29.10	+2.90	80.0%	21	23	26	29	31	35	38
Fiorentina	1658	32	29.51	+2.49	78.0%	21	23	27	29	32	35	38
Lazio Roma	1636	29	28.91	+0.09	58.0%	21	23	26	29	31	35	38
Avellino	1631	26	28.98	-2.98	28.0%	20	23	26	29	32	35	40
Catanzaro	1629	28	27.97	+0.03	58.0%	19	23	25	27	31	34	39
Roma	1618	26	26.59	-0.59	52.0%	17	21	24	26	29	33	35
Ascoli	1616	26	27.51	-1.51	43.0%	20	22	25	27	30	34	38
Lanerossi Vicenza	1608	24	29.20	-5.20	14.0%	20	22	26	29	32	35	41
Bologna	1599	24	25.71	-1.71	42.0%	17	19	23	26	28	32	38
Atalanta	1591	24	25.50	-1.50	36.0%	16	18	23	26	28	31	32
Hellas Verona	1531	15	23.84	-8.84	3.0%	14	16	21	25	27	30	33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	ASC	ATA	AVE	BOL	CAT	FIO	HV	IM	JUV	LV	LR	NAP	PER	ROM	TOR
AC Milan	—	1-1-0 3.47	1-1-0 3.46	1-0-1 3.11	1-1-0 3.90	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.93	1-1-0 2.72	0-1-1 2.55	1-1-0 3.24	1-1-0 3.61	0-1-1 3.24	0-2-0 2.77	2-0-0 3.19	2-0-0 2.54
Ascoli	0-1-1 1.73	—	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.45	0-2-0 2.63	0-2-0 2.48	1-0-1 2.35	2-0-0 2.85	0-1-1 1.94	1-0-1 1.61	0-2-0 2.48	0-1-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.38	0-1-1 1.92	0-1-1 2.65	1-0-1 1.77
Atalanta	0-1-1 1.84	1-0-1 2.25	—	0-2-0 2.25	0-1-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.55	1-1-0 2.02	1-1-0 2.65	0-1-1 1.62	0-0-2 1.50	1-1-0 2.25	0-2-0 2.20	1-0-1 2.19	0-0-2 1.97	1-1-0 2.38	0-0-2 1.88
Avellino	1-0-1 1.98	1-0-1 2.64	0-2-0 2.88	—	0-2-0 2.90	0-2-0 2.66	0-1-1 2.51	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 1.87	0-2-0 1.82	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.58	0-1-1 2.26	0-1-1 2.78	0-1-1 1.93
Bologna	0-1-1 1.46	0-2-0 2.43	1-1-0 2.60	0-2-0 2.23	—	0-2-0 2.37	0-1-1 2.30	1-0-1 2.77	0-1-1 1.96	0-2-0 1.64	1-1-0 2.15	1-0-1 2.25	0-1-1 2.22	0-1-1 1.73	0-0-2 2.53	0-1-1 1.72
Catanzaro	0-0-2 1.65	0-2-0 2.65	1-1-0 2.52	0-2-0 2.46	0-2-0 2.77	—	0-2-0 2.49	0-2-0 3.04	0-2-0 1.91	0-1-1 1.70	1-0-1 2.30	1-0-1 2.49	0-1-1 2.38	0-1-1 1.99	2-0-0 2.57	1-0-1 1.84
Fiorentina	0-0-2 1.83	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 3.12	1-1-0 2.57	1-1-0 2.79	0-2-0 2.56	—	2-0-0 3.07	1-0-1 2.06	0-1-1 1.95	1-1-0 2.61	1-0-1 2.53	1-1-0 2.53	0-1-1 2.27	1-1-0 2.85	0-2-0 1.97
Hellas Verona	0-0-2 1.47	0-0-2 2.29	0-1-1 2.48	0-0-2 2.07	1-0-1 2.35	0-2-0 2.05	0-0-2 2.04	—	0-1-1 1.88	0-0-2 1.60	0-2-0 1.90	1-0-1 1.89	0-1-1 1.90	0-2-0 1.52	0-1-1 2.46	0-1-1 1.56
Inter Milan	0-1-1 2.36	1-1-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.62	1-0-1 3.28	1-1-0 3.27	0-2-0 3.24	1-0-1 3.10	1-1-0 3.40	—	1-1-0 2.34	1-1-0 3.28	1-1-0 2.98	1-1-0 3.05	0-2-0 2.72	0-1-1 3.49	0-2-0 2.44
Juventus	1-1-0 2.56	1-0-1 3.62	2-0-0 3.84	0-2-0 3.41	0-2-0 3.67	1-1-0 3.53	1-1-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.65	0-1-1 2.76	—	0-1-1 3.52	1-1-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.32	0-1-1 3.00	1-0-1 3.72	1-1-0 2.60
Lanerossi Vicenza	0-1-1 1.95	0-2-0 2.63	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.50	0-2-0 3.23	0-1-1 1.87	1-1-0 1.69	—	1-0-1 2.55	0-2-0 2.59	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 1.97
Lazio Roma	0-1-1 1.63	1-1-0 2.67	0-2-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.46	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 3.23	0-1-1 2.12	0-1-1 1.90	1-0-1 2.51	—	1-0-1 2.48	0-1-1 2.14	1-1-0 2.90	0-2-0 2.00
Napoli	1-1-0 1.96	1-1-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.49	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.72	0-1-1 2.54	1-1-0 3.22	0-1-1 2.04	0-1-1 1.89	0-2-0 2.50	1-0-1 2.63	—	0-1-1 2.20	1-1-0 2.77	0-1-1 1.99
Perugia	0-2-0 2.32	1-1-0 3.20	2-0-0 3.25	1-1-0 2.82	1-1-0 3.48	1-1-0 3.14	1-1-0 2.80	0-2-0 3.75	0-2-0 2.38	1-1-0 2.15	1-1-0 2.61	1-1-0 3.02	1-1-0 2.93	—	0-2-0 3.38	0-2-0 2.34
Roma	0-0-2 2.06	1-1-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.29	2-0-0 2.53	0-0-2 2.49	0-1-1 2.27	1-1-0 2.63	1-1-0 1.76	1-0-1 1.57	1-0-1 2.19	0-1-1 2.20	0-1-1 2.33	0-2-0 1.84	—	0-0-2 1.84
Torino	0-0-2 2.54	1-0-1 3.47	2-0-0 3.38	1-1-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.51	1-0-1 3.37	0-2-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.76	0-2-0 2.64	0-1-1 2.49	1-1-0 3.16	0-2-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.15	0-2-0 2.75	2-0-0 3.41	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.92%	10.42%	4.79%	2.08%	1.04%	—	41.25%
1	10.42%	16.25%	4.58%	2.71%	0.62%	—	34.58%
2	4.79%	4.58%	4.58%	0.83%	—	0.42%	15.21%
3	2.08%	2.71%	0.83%	0.83%	0.21%	—	6.67%
4	1.04%	0.62%	—	0.21%	—	—	1.88%
5+	—	—	0.42%	—	—	—	0.42%
Total	41.25%	34.58%	15.21%	6.67%	1.88%	0.42%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.95
Mean allowed	0.95
StdDev scored	1.04
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	1.90
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.205
Sample size (games)	240

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	23.33%
1	20.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	36.67%
2	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.00%
3	6.67%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	23.33%
4	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.67%	43.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	100%

AC Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.53
Mean allowed	0.63
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	0.67
Mean total goals/game	2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.277
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	23.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	40.00%
1	10.00%	13.33%	6.67%	10.00%	—	—	40.00%
2	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
3	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	30.00%	16.67%	13.33%	—	—	100%

Ascoli — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.87
Mean allowed	1.03
StdDev scored	0.90
StdDev allowed	1.07
Mean total goals/game	1.90
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.292
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	16.67%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	56.67%
1	6.67%	13.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	23.33%
2	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	23.33%	10.00%	—	—	100%

Atalanta — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.67
Mean allowed	1.10
StdDev scored	0.88
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	1.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.039
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	33.33%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	56.67%
1	10.00%	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	30.00%
2	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
3	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.67%	30.00%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	100%

Avellino — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.63
Mean allowed	0.87
StdDev scored	0.89
StdDev allowed	1.01
Mean total goals/game	1.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.290
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	30.00%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	50.00%
1	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	3.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	36.67%	33.33%	23.33%	6.67%	—	—	100%

Bologna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.77
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	1.07
StdDev allowed	0.95
Mean total goals/game	1.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.509
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	30.00%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	46.67%
1	3.33%	23.33%	—	10.00%	—	—	36.67%
2	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	40.00%	3.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	100%

Catanzaro — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.77
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	0.90
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	1.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.034
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	—	33.33%
1	20.00%	20.00%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	50.00%
2	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.67%	36.67%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Fiorentina — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.87
Mean allowed	0.87
StdDev scored	0.78
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	1.73
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.057
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	30.00%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	63.33%
1	3.33%	16.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	26.67%
2	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	10.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.67%	46.67%	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Hellas Verona — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.47
Mean allowed	1.30
StdDev scored	0.68
StdDev allowed	1.37
Mean total goals/game	1.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.362
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	26.67%
1	10.00%	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	36.67%
2	6.67%	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	26.67%
3	—	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%
4	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	43.33%	36.67%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	100%

Inter Milan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.27
Mean allowed	0.80
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	0.85
Mean total goals/game	2.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.242
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	26.67%
1	20.00%	16.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	46.67%
2	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
3	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	46.67%	33.33%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	100%

Juventus — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	0.77
StdDev scored	1.40
StdDev allowed	0.86
Mean total goals/game	2.10
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.412
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	23.33%	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	46.67%
1	3.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
2	3.33%	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	3.33%	26.67%
3	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	30.00%	23.33%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Lanerossi Vicenza — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.97
Mean allowed	1.40
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	1.35
Mean total goals/game	2.37
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.311
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.00%	—	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	36.67%
1	6.67%	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	33.33%
2	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	—	10.00%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	23.33%	26.67%	10.00%	6.67%	—	100%

Lazio Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.23
StdDev allowed	1.24
Mean total goals/game	2.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.008
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	30.00%	6.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	46.67%
1	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	30.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	100%

Napoli — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.77
Mean allowed	0.70
StdDev scored	0.86
StdDev allowed	0.79
Mean total goals/game	1.47
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.096
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	23.33%	—	—	—	—	—	23.33%
1	10.00%	33.33%	—	—	—	—	43.33%
2	20.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	30.00%
3	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	53.33%	40.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	100%

Perugia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.13
Mean allowed	0.53
StdDev scored	0.82
StdDev allowed	0.63
Mean total goals/game	1.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.326
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	46.67%
1	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	30.00%
2	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	40.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	100%

Roma — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.80
Mean allowed	1.07
StdDev scored	0.89
StdDev allowed	1.05
Mean total goals/game	1.87
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.096
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	23.33%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	36.67%
1	16.67%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	3.33%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	10.00%
3	6.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	16.67%
4	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	53.33%	26.67%	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	100%

Torino — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	0.77
StdDev scored	1.21
StdDev allowed	1.01
Mean total goals/game	1.93
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.062
Games played	30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Perugia	41	33.0	+7.96
2	AC Milan	44	36.9	+7.09
3	Napoli	32	29.1	+2.90
4	Fiorentina	32	29.5	+2.49
5	Inter Milan	36	34.6	+1.36

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hellas Verona	15	23.8	-8.84
2	Lanerossi Vicenza	24	29.2	-5.20
3	Avellino	26	29.0	-2.98
4	Bologna	24	25.7	-1.71
5	Ascoli	26	27.5	-1.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fiorentina	3	Mar 25 – Apr 8	1 in 77
2	AC Milan	5	Dec 10 – Jan 21	1 in 61
3	Napoli	3	Apr 22 – May 6	1 in 34
4	Atalanta	2	Apr 14 – Apr 22	1 in 30
5	Ascoli	2	Oct 22 – Oct 29	1 in 26

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Inter Milan	3	Apr 29 – May 13	1 in 483
2	Hellas Verona	7	Jan 14 – Mar 4	1 in 430
3	Lanerossi Vicenza	4	Apr 1 – Apr 22	1 in 207
4	Fiorentina	3	Jan 7 – Jan 21	1 in 63
5	Roma	3	Mar 4 – Mar 18	1 in 53

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Perugia	30	Oct 1 – May 13	1 in 3,825
2	Inter Milan	20	Nov 19 – Apr 22	1 in 115
3	Catanzaro	9	Oct 15 – Dec 10	1 in 31
4	Bologna	7	Mar 4 – Apr 14	1 in 25
5	Lanerossi Vicenza	8	Nov 26 – Jan 28	1 in 17

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bologna	19	Oct 22 – Mar 18	1 in 90
2	Catanzaro	9	Mar 11 – May 6	1 in 22
3	Fiorentina	11	Dec 17 – Mar 18	1 in 21
4	Atalanta	13	Oct 1 – Jan 7	1 in 20
5	AC Milan	5	Mar 11 – Apr 8	1 in 15

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
AC Milan	32.00%	21.00%	20.00%	10.00%	1.00%	6.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
Perugia	6.00%	16.00%	8.00%	15.00%	13.00%	6.00%	10.00%	7.00%	6.00%	7.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Juventus	34.00%	22.00%	17.00%	8.00%	5.00%	7.00%	3.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Inter Milan	11.00%	14.00%	12.00%	20.00%	13.00%	11.00%	5.00%	3.00%	4.00%	3.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Torino	16.00%	14.00%	18.00%	17.00%	13.00%	12.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Napoli	—	—	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	6.00%	11.00%	14.00%	8.00%	9.00%	6.00%	7.00%	7.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Fiorentina	—	1.00%	8.00%	4.00%	8.00%	7.00%	13.00%	8.00%	11.00%	8.00%	7.00%	5.00%	12.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—
Lazio Roma	—	1.00%	2.00%	6.00%	6.00%	11.00%	7.00%	3.00%	13.00%	11.00%	4.00%	10.00%	11.00%	5.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Catanzaro	—	1.00%	2.00%	6.00%	6.00%	3.00%	8.00%	10.00%	5.00%	6.00%	9.00%	11.00%	16.00%	9.00%	3.00%	5.00%
Ascoli	—	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%	9.00%	11.00%	9.00%	8.00%	9.00%	7.00%	11.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Avellino	—	3.00%	5.00%	1.00%	5.00%	9.00%	10.00%	14.00%	3.00%	12.00%	5.00%	11.00%	6.00%	7.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Roma	—	2.00%	—	2.00%	4.00%	5.00%	2.00%	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	7.00%	16.00%	17.00%	6.00%
Bologna	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	6.00%	14.00%	9.00%	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	15.00%	16.00%
Lanerossi Vicenza	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	10.00%	10.00%	11.00%	8.00%	10.00%	6.00%	9.00%	7.00%	4.00%	5.00%	9.00%	4.00%
Atalanta	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	6.00%	3.00%	9.00%	13.00%	10.00%	11.00%	13.00%	20.00%
Hellas Verona	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	11.00%	8.00%	7.00%	14.00%	13.00%	34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Inter Milan	100%	—
Juventus	100%	—
Perugia	100%	—
Torino	100%	—
AC Milan	99.0%	1.0%
Fiorentina	92.0%	8.0%
Napoli	87.0%	13.0%
Lazio Roma	85.0%	15.0%
Avellino	84.0%	16.0%
Catanzaro	83.0%	17.0%
Lanerossi Vicenza	82.0%	18.0%
Ascoli	74.0%	26.0%
Roma	61.0%	39.0%
Bologna	58.0%	42.0%
Atalanta	56.0%	44.0%
Hellas Verona	39.0%	61.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1978-10-01	Avellino	W 1-0	1682	1676	41.3%	45.4%	13.3%	+5.7	3
1978-10-01	@ AC Milan	L 0-1	1676	1682	13.3%	45.4%	41.3%	-5.8	0
1978-10-01	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1622	1697	31.0%	48.3%	20.7%	-9.5	0
1978-10-01	@ Bologna	W 1-0	1697	1622	20.7%	48.3%	31.0%	+9.5	3
1978-10-01	Atalanta	D 0-0	1622	1638	38.4%	46.8%	14.8%	-1.3	1
1978-10-01	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1638	1622	14.8%	46.8%	38.4%	+1.3	1
1978-10-01	Roma	D 1-1	1630	1641	39.1%	46.5%	14.4%	-1.3	1
1978-10-01	@ Hellas Verona	D 1-1	1641	1630	14.4%	46.5%	39.1%	+1.3	1
1978-10-01	Juventus	D 2-2	1643	1759	25.6%	47.5%	26.9%	+0.0	1
1978-10-01	@ Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1759	1643	26.9%	47.5%	25.6%	-0.0	1
1978-10-01	Ascoli	W 2-1	1652	1616	45.1%	43.0%	11.8%	+4.8	3
1978-10-01	@ Napoli	L 1-2	1616	1652	11.8%	43.0%	45.1%	-4.8	0
1978-10-01	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 2-0	1655	1690	36.0%	47.6%	16.4%	+12.6	3
1978-10-01	@ Perugia	L 0-2	1690	1655	16.4%	47.6%	36.0%	-12.6	0
1978-10-01	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1729	1648	51.1%	38.5%	10.4%	-2.2	1
1978-10-01	@ Torino	D 1-1	1648	1729	10.4%	38.5%	51.1%	+2.2	1
1978-10-08	Bologna	D 2-2	1611	1613	40.3%	45.9%	13.8%	-1.0	1
1978-10-08	@ Ascoli	D 2-2	1613	1611	13.8%	45.9%	40.3%	+1.0	1
1978-10-08	Torino	L 0-1	1640	1727	29.4%	48.2%	22.4%	-9.2	1
1978-10-08	@ Atalanta	W 1-0	1727	1640	22.4%	48.2%	29.4%	+9.2	4
1978-10-08	Lazio Roma	L 1-3	1670	1643	44.0%	43.8%	12.2%	-19.3	0
1978-10-08	@ Avellino	W 3-1	1643	1670	12.2%	43.8%	44.0%	+19.3	4
1978-10-08	Napoli	W 2-1	1650	1657	39.6%	46.2%	14.1%	+5.7	4
1978-10-08	@ Fiorentina	L 1-2	1657	1650	14.1%	46.2%	39.6%	-5.7	3
1978-10-08	Perugia	D 1-1	1706	1668	45.4%	42.9%	11.7%	-1.8	4
1978-10-08	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1668	1706	11.7%	42.9%	45.4%	+1.8	4
1978-10-08	Hellas Verona	W 6-2	1759	1629	57.9%	32.6%	9.4%	+8.6	4
1978-10-08	@ Juventus	L 2-6	1629	1759	9.4%	32.6%	57.9%	-8.6	1
1978-10-08	AC Milan	L 0-3	1642	1688	34.6%	47.9%	17.4%	-27.9	1
1978-10-08	@ Roma	W 3-0	1688	1642	17.4%	47.9%	34.6%	+27.9	6
1978-10-08	Catanzaro	W 2-0	1678	1621	47.9%	41.1%	11.1%	+8.9	3
1978-10-08	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	L 0-2	1621	1678	11.1%	41.1%	47.9%	-8.9	1
1978-10-15	Ascoli	D 0-0	1716	1610	54.5%	35.6%	9.9%	-2.8	7
1978-10-15	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1610	1716	9.9%	35.6%	54.5%	+2.8	2
1978-10-15	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 5-2	1614	1686	31.3%	48.3%	20.4%	+15.2	4
1978-10-15	@ Bologna	L 2-5	1686	1614	20.4%	48.3%	31.3%	-15.2	3
1978-10-15	Juventus	D 0-0	1612	1768	21.4%	45.4%	33.2%	+0.6	2
1978-10-15	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1768	1612	33.2%	45.4%	21.4%	-0.6	5
1978-10-15	Inter Milan	D 0-0	1621	1704	29.8%	48.3%	21.9%	-0.4	2
1978-10-15	@ Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1704	1621	21.9%	48.3%	29.8%	+0.4	5
1978-10-15	Atalanta	D 1-1	1662	1631	44.5%	43.5%	12.0%	-1.7	5
1978-10-15	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1631	1662	12.0%	43.5%	44.5%	+1.7	2
1978-10-15	Roma	W 1-0	1651	1614	45.2%	43.0%	11.8%	+5.1	6
1978-10-15	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1614	1651	11.8%	43.0%	45.2%	-5.1	1
1978-10-15	Fiorentina	W 1-0	1670	1656	42.2%	44.9%	12.9%	+5.6	7
1978-10-15	@ Perugia	L 0-1	1656	1670	12.9%	44.9%	42.2%	-5.6	4
1978-10-15	Avellino	W 1-0	1736	1651	51.7%	38.0%	10.3%	+4.2	7
1978-10-15	@ Torino	L 0-1	1651	1736	10.3%	38.0%	51.7%	-4.2	0
1978-10-22	Torino	W 3-0	1613	1740	24.3%	47.1%	28.6%	+24.5	5
1978-10-22	@ Ascoli	L 0-3	1740	1613	28.6%	47.1%	24.3%	-24.5	7
1978-10-22	AC Milan	L 1-3	1632	1713	30.2%	48.3%	21.6%	-15.2	2
1978-10-22	@ Atalanta	W 3-1	1713	1632	21.6%	48.3%	30.2%	+15.2	10
1978-10-22	Hellas Verona	W 2-0	1647	1620	43.9%	43.9%	12.2%	+10.0	3
1978-10-22	@ Avellino	L 0-2	1620	1647	12.2%	43.9%	43.9%	-10.0	2
1978-10-22	Lazio Roma	W 3-0	1651	1660	39.2%	46.4%	14.3%	+16.7	7
1978-10-22	@ Fiorentina	L 0-3	1660	1651	14.3%	46.4%	39.2%	-16.7	5
1978-10-22	Catanzaro	D 0-0	1705	1612	52.7%	37.2%	10.1%	-2.6	6
1978-10-22	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1612	1705	10.1%	37.2%	52.7%	+2.6	3
1978-10-22	Perugia	L 1-2	1767	1675	52.6%	37.2%	10.1%	-12.4	5
1978-10-22	@ Juventus	W 2-1	1675	1767	10.1%	37.2%	52.6%	+12.3	10
1978-10-22	Bologna	W 2-0	1609	1629	38.0%	46.9%	15.1%	+12.0	4
1978-10-22	@ Roma	L 0-2	1629	1609	15.1%	46.9%	38.0%	-12.0	4
1978-10-22	Napoli	D 0-0	1671	1656	42.4%	44.8%	12.8%	-1.7	4
1978-10-22	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1656	1671	12.8%	44.8%	42.4%	+1.7	7
1978-10-29	Fiorentina	W 4-1	1729	1667	48.4%	40.6%	10.9%	+10.6	13
1978-10-29	@ AC Milan	L 1-4	1667	1729	10.9%	40.6%	48.4%	-10.6	7
1978-10-29	Juventus	D 0-0	1617	1755	23.2%	46.6%	30.3%	+0.4	5
1978-10-29	@ Bologna	D 0-0	1755	1617	30.3%	46.6%	23.2%	-0.4	6
1978-10-29	Roma	W 1-0	1615	1621	39.7%	46.2%	14.1%	+6.0	6
1978-10-29	@ Catanzaro	L 0-1	1621	1615	14.1%	46.2%	39.7%	-6.0	4
1978-10-29	Ascoli	L 2-3	1610	1637	37.0%	47.3%	15.7%	-9.5	2
1978-10-29	@ Hellas Verona	W 3-2	1637	1610	15.7%	47.3%	37.0%	+9.5	8
1978-10-29	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 4-3	1644	1669	37.2%	47.2%	15.6%	+5.7	8
1978-10-29	@ Lazio Roma	L 3-4	1669	1644	15.6%	47.2%	37.2%	-5.7	4
1978-10-29	Atalanta	W 2-0	1658	1617	45.8%	42.6%	11.6%	+9.4	10
1978-10-29	@ Napoli	L 0-2	1617	1658	11.6%	42.6%	45.8%	-9.4	2
1978-10-29	Avellino	D 0-0	1688	1657	44.4%	43.5%	12.0%	-1.9	11
1978-10-29	@ Perugia	D 0-0	1657	1688	12.0%	43.5%	44.4%	+1.9	4
1978-10-29	Inter Milan	D 3-3	1716	1702	42.2%	44.9%	12.9%	-1.0	8
1978-10-29	@ Torino	D 3-3	1702	1716	12.9%	44.9%	42.2%	+1.0	7
1978-11-05	Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1647	1649	40.2%	46.0%	13.8%	-1.5	9
1978-11-05	@ Ascoli	D 0-0	1649	1647	13.8%	46.0%	40.2%	+1.5	9
1978-11-05	Perugia	L 0-2	1608	1686	30.6%	48.3%	21.1%	-17.8	2
1978-11-05	@ Atalanta	W 2-0	1686	1608	21.1%	48.3%	30.6%	+17.8	14
1978-11-05	Catanzaro	D 0-0	1659	1621	45.4%	42.9%	11.7%	-2.0	5
1978-11-05	@ Avellino	D 0-0	1621	1659	11.7%	42.9%	45.4%	+2.0	7
1978-11-05	Bologna	W 1-0	1657	1617	45.5%	42.8%	11.7%	+5.0	10
1978-11-05	@ Fiorentina	L 0-1	1617	1657	11.7%	42.8%	45.5%	-5.0	5
1978-11-05	Napoli	W 2-0	1703	1668	45.1%	43.1%	11.8%	+9.6	10
1978-11-05	@ Inter Milan	L 0-2	1668	1703	11.8%	43.1%	45.1%	-9.6	10
1978-11-05	AC Milan	W 1-0	1755	1739	42.5%	44.8%	12.8%	+5.5	9
1978-11-05	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1739	1755	12.8%	44.8%	42.5%	-5.5	13
1978-11-05	Torino	L 0-2	1615	1715	27.8%	48.0%	24.2%	-16.8	4
1978-11-05	@ Roma	W 2-0	1715	1615	24.2%	48.0%	27.8%	+16.8	11
1978-11-05	Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1664	1601	48.7%	40.4%	10.9%	-2.3	5
1978-11-05	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1601	1664	10.9%	40.4%	48.7%	+2.3	3
1978-11-12	Inter Milan	W 1-0	1734	1713	43.2%	44.3%	12.5%	+5.4	16
1978-11-12	@ AC Milan	L 0-1	1713	1734	12.5%	44.3%	43.2%	-5.4	10
1978-11-12	Avellino	D 0-0	1612	1657	34.8%	47.9%	17.3%	-1.0	6
1978-11-12	@ Bologna	D 0-0	1657	1612	17.3%	47.9%	34.8%	+1.0	6
1978-11-12	Fiorentina	D 0-0	1623	1662	35.6%	47.7%	16.7%	-1.0	8
1978-11-12	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1662	1623	16.7%	47.7%	35.6%	+1.0	11
1978-11-12	Atalanta	D 1-1	1603	1590	42.2%	44.9%	12.9%	-1.5	4
1978-11-12	@ Hellas Verona	D 1-1	1590	1603	12.9%	44.9%	42.2%	+1.5	3
1978-11-12	Roma	D 0-0	1651	1598	47.3%	41.5%	11.2%	-2.2	10
1978-11-12	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1598	1651	11.2%	41.5%	47.3%	+2.2	5
1978-11-12	Juventus	D 0-0	1658	1760	27.5%	48.0%	24.6%	-0.2	11
1978-11-12	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1760	1658	24.6%	48.0%	27.5%	+0.1	10
1978-11-12	Ascoli	W 2-0	1703	1645	48.0%	41.0%	11.0%	+8.8	17
1978-11-12	@ Perugia	L 0-2	1645	1703	11.0%	41.0%	48.0%	-8.8	9
1978-11-12	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 4-0	1732	1661	49.6%	39.7%	10.7%	+15.9	14
1978-11-12	@ Torino	L 0-4	1661	1732	10.7%	39.7%	49.6%	-15.9	5
1978-11-19	Catanzaro	D 1-1	1637	1622	42.3%	44.8%	12.8%	-1.5	10
1978-11-19	@ Ascoli	D 1-1	1622	1637	12.8%	44.8%	42.3%	+1.5	9
1978-11-19	Bologna	D 0-0	1591	1611	37.9%	47.0%	15.1%	-1.3	4
1978-11-19	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1611	1591	15.1%	47.0%	37.9%	+1.3	7
1978-11-19	Napoli	D 1-1	1658	1658	40.5%	45.8%	13.7%	-1.4	7
1978-11-19	@ Avellino	D 1-1	1658	1658	13.7%	45.8%	40.5%	+1.4	12
1978-11-19	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1663	1601	48.5%	40.6%	10.9%	+4.6	14
1978-11-19	@ Fiorentina	L 0-1	1601	1663	10.9%	40.6%	48.5%	-4.6	4
1978-11-19	Lazio Roma	W 4-0	1707	1649	48.1%	40.9%	11.0%	+16.7	13
1978-11-19	@ Inter Milan	L 0-4	1649	1707	11.0%	40.9%	48.1%	-16.7	10
1978-11-19	Torino	D 1-1	1760	1748	42.1%	45.0%	12.9%	-1.5	11
1978-11-19	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1748	1760	12.9%	45.0%	42.1%	+1.5	15
1978-11-19	Perugia	D 0-0	1601	1712	26.3%	47.7%	26.0%	-0.0	6
1978-11-19	@ Roma	D 0-0	1712	1601	26.0%	47.7%	26.3%	+0.0	18
1978-11-19	AC Milan	L 2-3	1646	1739	28.6%	48.1%	23.3%	-8.1	5
1978-11-19	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	W 3-2	1739	1646	23.3%	48.1%	28.6%	+8.1	19
1978-11-26	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1656	1667	39.1%	46.5%	14.4%	-1.3	8
1978-11-26	@ Avellino	D 1-1	1667	1656	14.4%	46.5%	39.1%	+1.2	15
1978-11-26	Catanzaro	D 1-1	1613	1624	39.1%	46.5%	14.4%	-1.3	8
1978-11-26	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1624	1613	14.4%	46.5%	39.1%	+1.3	10
1978-11-26	Atalanta	D 2-2	1724	1590	58.4%	32.2%	9.4%	-2.0	14
1978-11-26	@ Inter Milan	D 2-2	1590	1724	9.4%	32.2%	58.4%	+2.0	5
1978-11-26	Ascoli	W 1-0	1759	1635	57.0%	33.4%	9.6%	+3.5	14
1978-11-26	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1635	1759	9.6%	33.4%	57.0%	-3.5	10
1978-11-26	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1632	1597	45.0%	43.1%	11.8%	+5.1	13
1978-11-26	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1597	1632	11.8%	43.1%	45.0%	-5.1	4
1978-11-26	AC Milan	D 1-1	1659	1747	29.3%	48.2%	22.5%	-0.3	13
1978-11-26	@ Napoli	D 1-1	1747	1659	22.5%	48.2%	29.3%	+0.3	20
1978-11-26	Torino	D 0-0	1712	1749	35.8%	47.6%	16.6%	-1.1	19
1978-11-26	@ Perugia	D 0-0	1749	1712	16.6%	47.6%	35.8%	+1.1	16
1978-11-26	Roma	W 1-0	1638	1601	45.2%	43.0%	11.8%	+5.1	8
1978-11-26	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	L 0-1	1601	1638	11.8%	43.0%	45.2%	-5.1	6
1978-12-03	Perugia	D 1-1	1747	1711	45.2%	43.0%	11.8%	-1.8	21
1978-12-03	@ AC Milan	D 1-1	1711	1747	11.8%	43.0%	45.2%	+1.8	20
1978-12-03	Inter Milan	L 1-2	1631	1722	29.0%	48.2%	22.9%	-8.6	10
1978-12-03	@ Ascoli	W 2-1	1722	1631	22.9%	48.2%	29.0%	+8.6	17
1978-12-03	Juventus	L 0-1	1592	1762	20.2%	44.4%	35.4%	-7.2	5
1978-12-03	@ Atalanta	W 1-0	1762	1592	35.4%	44.4%	20.2%	+7.2	17
1978-12-03	Lazio Roma	W 3-1	1625	1637	38.9%	46.6%	14.5%	+10.1	13
1978-12-03	@ Catanzaro	L 1-3	1637	1625	14.5%	46.6%	38.9%	-10.1	13
1978-12-03	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1669	1643	43.8%	43.9%	12.3%	-1.9	16
1978-12-03	@ Fiorentina	D 0-0	1643	1669	12.3%	43.9%	43.8%	+1.9	9
1978-12-03	Bologna	W 1-0	1592	1611	38.0%	46.9%	15.1%	+6.3	7
1978-12-03	@ Hellas Verona	L 0-1	1611	1592	15.1%	46.9%	38.0%	-6.3	8
1978-12-03	Avellino	W 2-1	1596	1655	32.9%	48.2%	18.9%	+6.9	9
1978-12-03	@ Roma	L 1-2	1655	1596	18.9%	48.2%	32.9%	-6.9	8
1978-12-03	Napoli	D 0-0	1750	1659	52.5%	37.3%	10.2%	-2.6	17
1978-12-03	@ Torino	D 0-0	1659	1750	10.2%	37.3%	52.5%	+2.6	14
1978-12-10	Torino	W 1-0	1746	1748	40.2%	46.0%	13.8%	+5.9	24
1978-12-10	@ AC Milan	L 0-1	1748	1746	13.8%	46.0%	40.2%	-5.9	17
1978-12-10	Atalanta	W 1-0	1623	1585	45.4%	42.9%	11.7%	+5.1	13
1978-12-10	@ Ascoli	L 0-1	1585	1623	11.7%	42.9%	45.4%	-5.1	5
1978-12-10	Hellas Verona	D 1-1	1635	1598	45.2%	43.0%	11.8%	-1.8	14
1978-12-10	@ Catanzaro	D 1-1	1598	1635	11.8%	43.0%	45.2%	+1.8	8
1978-12-10	Roma	W 2-0	1667	1602	48.9%	40.3%	10.8%	+8.6	19
1978-12-10	@ Fiorentina	L 0-2	1602	1667	10.8%	40.3%	48.9%	-8.6	9
1978-12-10	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1770	1731	45.5%	42.8%	11.7%	-1.8	18
1978-12-10	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1731	1770	11.7%	42.8%	45.5%	+1.8	18
1978-12-10	Bologna	W 1-0	1627	1605	43.3%	44.3%	12.4%	+5.4	16
1978-12-10	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-1	1605	1627	12.4%	44.3%	43.3%	-5.4	8
1978-12-10	Perugia	D 1-1	1661	1713	33.9%	48.0%	18.0%	-0.8	15
1978-12-10	@ Napoli	D 1-1	1713	1661	18.0%	48.0%	33.9%	+0.8	21
1978-12-10	Avellino	W 2-1	1644	1648	40.0%	46.1%	13.9%	+5.6	12
1978-12-10	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	L 1-2	1648	1644	13.9%	46.1%	40.0%	-5.6	8
1978-12-17	Fiorentina	D 0-0	1580	1675	28.3%	48.1%	23.6%	-0.2	6
1978-12-17	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1675	1580	23.6%	48.1%	28.3%	+0.2	20
1978-12-17	Ascoli	W 3-1	1643	1628	42.4%	44.8%	12.8%	+9.1	11
1978-12-17	@ Avellino	L 1-3	1628	1643	12.8%	44.8%	42.4%	-9.1	13
1978-12-17	Napoli	D 1-1	1600	1661	32.7%	48.2%	19.1%	-0.7	9
1978-12-17	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1661	1600	19.1%	48.2%	32.7%	+0.6	16
1978-12-17	AC Milan	L 1-3	1600	1752	21.8%	45.7%	32.5%	-12.4	8
1978-12-17	@ Hellas Verona	W 3-1	1752	1600	32.5%	45.7%	21.8%	+12.4	27
1978-12-17	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1732	1650	51.3%	38.4%	10.4%	-2.5	19
1978-12-17	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1650	1732	10.4%	38.4%	51.3%	+2.5	13
1978-12-17	Catanzaro	W 1-0	1714	1633	51.0%	38.6%	10.4%	+4.2	24
1978-12-17	@ Perugia	L 0-1	1633	1714	10.4%	38.6%	51.0%	-4.2	14
1978-12-17	Juventus	W 1-0	1594	1768	19.9%	44.1%	36.0%	+10.1	12
1978-12-17	@ Roma	L 0-1	1768	1594	36.0%	44.1%	19.9%	-10.1	18
1978-12-17	Lazio Roma	D 2-2	1742	1632	55.0%	35.2%	9.8%	-1.9	18
1978-12-17	@ Torino	D 2-2	1632	1742	9.8%	35.2%	55.0%	+1.9	17
1979-01-07	Catanzaro	W 4-0	1764	1629	58.6%	32.0%	9.4%	+11.9	30
1979-01-07	@ AC Milan	L 0-4	1629	1764	9.4%	32.0%	58.6%	-11.9	14
1979-01-07	Atalanta	D 0-0	1652	1580	49.9%	39.5%	10.6%	-2.4	12
1979-01-07	@ Avellino	D 0-0	1580	1652	10.6%	39.5%	49.9%	+2.4	7
1979-01-07	Juventus	L 0-1	1676	1758	30.0%	48.3%	21.7%	-9.3	20
1979-01-07	@ Fiorentina	W 1-0	1758	1676	21.7%	48.3%	30.0%	+9.3	21
1979-01-07	Lazio Roma	L 0-2	1661	1634	44.0%	43.8%	12.2%	-22.3	16
1979-01-07	@ Napoli	W 2-0	1634	1661	12.2%	43.8%	44.0%	+22.3	20
1979-01-07	Hellas Verona	D 1-1	1718	1587	58.0%	32.6%	9.4%	-2.7	25
1979-01-07	@ Perugia	D 1-1	1587	1718	9.4%	32.6%	58.0%	+2.7	9
1979-01-07	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1604	1730	24.5%	47.1%	28.3%	+0.2	13
1979-01-07	@ Roma	D 1-1	1730	1604	28.3%	47.1%	24.5%	-0.2	20
1979-01-07	Bologna	W 3-1	1740	1599	59.4%	31.3%	9.3%	+5.3	21
1979-01-07	@ Torino	L 1-3	1599	1740	9.3%	31.3%	59.4%	-5.3	9
1979-01-07	Ascoli	D 1-1	1653	1619	44.8%	43.3%	11.9%	-1.8	14
1979-01-07	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 1-1	1619	1653	11.9%	43.3%	44.8%	+1.8	14
1979-01-14	Fiorentina	W 2-1	1621	1666	34.7%	47.9%	17.4%	+6.5	17
1979-01-14	@ Ascoli	L 1-2	1666	1621	17.4%	47.9%	34.7%	-6.5	20
1979-01-14	Roma	W 2-0	1582	1604	37.7%	47.0%	15.3%	+12.0	10
1979-01-14	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1604	1582	15.3%	47.0%	37.7%	-12.0	13
1979-01-14	AC Milan	L 0-1	1594	1776	19.3%	43.4%	37.3%	-6.9	9
1979-01-14	@ Bologna	W 1-0	1776	1594	37.3%	43.4%	19.3%	+6.9	33
1979-01-14	Napoli	D 0-0	1617	1639	37.7%	47.0%	15.3%	-1.3	15
1979-01-14	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1639	1617	15.3%	47.0%	37.7%	+1.2	17
1979-01-14	Torino	L 0-1	1590	1745	21.5%	45.5%	33.0%	-7.5	9
1979-01-14	@ Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1745	1590	33.0%	45.5%	21.5%	+7.5	24
1979-01-14	Avellino	W 2-0	1730	1649	51.0%	38.6%	10.4%	+8.0	23
1979-01-14	@ Inter Milan	L 0-2	1649	1730	10.4%	38.6%	51.0%	-8.0	12
1979-01-14	Lanerossi Vicenza	L 1-2	1767	1651	55.9%	34.4%	9.7%	-12.7	21
1979-01-14	@ Juventus	W 2-1	1651	1767	9.7%	34.4%	55.9%	+12.7	17
1979-01-14	Perugia	D 0-0	1657	1715	33.0%	48.2%	18.8%	-0.8	21
1979-01-14	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1715	1657	18.8%	48.2%	33.0%	+0.8	26
1979-01-21	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1783	1656	57.5%	33.0%	9.5%	+6.5	36
1979-01-21	@ AC Milan	L 0-2	1656	1783	9.5%	33.0%	57.5%	-6.5	21
1979-01-21	Juventus	D 0-0	1641	1754	26.1%	47.7%	26.2%	+0.0	13
1979-01-21	@ Avellino	D 0-0	1754	1641	26.2%	47.7%	26.1%	+0.0	22
1979-01-21	Inter Milan	L 1-2	1660	1738	30.6%	48.3%	21.1%	-8.9	20
1979-01-21	@ Fiorentina	W 2-1	1738	1660	21.1%	48.3%	30.6%	+8.9	26
1979-01-21	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1640	1583	48.0%	41.0%	11.0%	+4.7	20
1979-01-21	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1583	1640	11.0%	41.0%	48.0%	-4.7	9
1979-01-21	Bologna	W 3-1	1716	1587	57.8%	32.8%	9.5%	+5.6	29
1979-01-21	@ Perugia	L 1-3	1587	1716	9.5%	32.8%	57.8%	-5.6	9
1979-01-21	Ascoli	W 1-0	1592	1627	36.0%	47.6%	16.4%	+6.7	16
1979-01-21	@ Roma	L 0-1	1627	1592	16.4%	47.6%	36.0%	-6.7	17
1979-01-21	Catanzaro	W 3-0	1753	1616	58.9%	31.8%	9.3%	+9.0	27
1979-01-21	@ Torino	L 0-3	1616	1753	9.3%	31.8%	58.9%	-9.0	15
1979-01-21	Atalanta	D 1-1	1664	1594	49.6%	39.8%	10.7%	-2.1	18
1979-01-21	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 1-1	1594	1664	10.7%	39.8%	49.6%	+2.1	11
1979-01-28	Napoli	D 0-0	1620	1645	37.4%	47.2%	15.5%	-1.2	18
1979-01-28	@ Ascoli	D 0-0	1645	1620	15.5%	47.2%	37.4%	+1.2	21
1979-01-28	Catanzaro	L 0-2	1596	1607	39.1%	46.5%	14.4%	-20.8	11
1979-01-28	@ Atalanta	W 2-0	1607	1596	14.4%	46.5%	39.1%	+20.8	18
1979-01-28	AC Milan	W 1-0	1641	1789	22.2%	46.0%	31.9%	+9.4	16
1979-01-28	@ Avellino	L 0-1	1789	1641	31.9%	46.0%	22.2%	-9.4	36
1979-01-28	Torino	D 0-0	1651	1762	26.4%	47.7%	25.9%	-0.0	21
1979-01-28	@ Fiorentina	D 0-0	1762	1651	25.9%	47.7%	26.4%	+0.0	28
1979-01-28	Bologna	D 0-0	1747	1581	62.9%	28.2%	8.9%	-3.3	27
1979-01-28	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1581	1747	8.9%	28.2%	62.9%	+3.3	10
1979-01-28	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1754	1649	54.4%	35.7%	9.9%	+3.6	25
1979-01-28	@ Juventus	L 1-2	1649	1754	9.9%	35.7%	54.4%	-3.6	21
1979-01-28	Hellas Verona	W 2-0	1599	1578	43.1%	44.3%	12.5%	+10.2	19
1979-01-28	@ Roma	L 0-2	1578	1599	12.5%	44.3%	43.1%	-10.2	9
1979-01-28	Perugia	D 1-1	1662	1722	32.8%	48.2%	19.0%	-0.7	19
1979-01-28	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 1-1	1722	1662	19.0%	48.2%	32.8%	+0.7	30
1979-02-04	Roma	W 1-0	1780	1609	63.7%	27.5%	8.8%	+2.8	39
1979-02-04	@ AC Milan	L 0-1	1609	1780	8.8%	27.5%	63.7%	-2.8	19
1979-02-04	Ascoli	D 0-0	1585	1619	36.1%	47.6%	16.4%	-1.1	11
1979-02-04	@ Bologna	D 0-0	1619	1585	16.4%	47.6%	36.1%	+1.1	19
1979-02-04	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 2-0	1627	1661	36.2%	47.5%	16.2%	+12.5	21
1979-02-04	@ Catanzaro	L 0-2	1661	1627	16.2%	47.5%	36.2%	-12.5	19
1979-02-04	Juventus	L 0-3	1568	1758	18.7%	42.7%	38.6%	-18.3	9
1979-02-04	@ Hellas Verona	W 3-0	1758	1568	38.6%	42.7%	18.7%	+18.3	28
1979-02-04	Avellino	D 0-0	1646	1651	39.8%	46.2%	14.0%	-1.5	22
1979-02-04	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1651	1646	14.0%	46.2%	39.8%	+1.5	17
1979-02-04	Fiorentina	D 0-0	1646	1651	39.9%	46.1%	14.0%	-1.5	22
1979-02-04	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1651	1646	14.0%	46.1%	39.9%	+1.5	22
1979-02-04	Inter Milan	D 2-2	1722	1743	37.8%	47.0%	15.2%	-0.8	31
1979-02-04	@ Perugia	D 2-2	1743	1722	15.2%	47.0%	37.8%	+0.9	28
1979-02-04	Atalanta	W 3-0	1762	1575	65.8%	25.6%	8.6%	+7.1	31
1979-02-04	@ Torino	L 0-3	1575	1762	8.6%	25.6%	65.8%	-7.1	11
1979-02-11	AC Milan	L 0-1	1620	1783	20.8%	45.0%	34.2%	-7.3	19
1979-02-11	@ Ascoli	W 1-0	1783	1620	34.2%	45.0%	20.8%	+7.3	42
1979-02-11	Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1568	1644	30.8%	48.3%	20.9%	-0.5	12
1979-02-11	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1644	1568	20.9%	48.3%	30.8%	+0.5	23
1979-02-11	Torino	D 1-1	1652	1769	25.7%	47.5%	26.8%	+0.0	18
1979-02-11	@ Avellino	D 1-1	1769	1652	26.8%	47.5%	25.7%	-0.0	32
1979-02-11	Perugia	D 1-1	1652	1721	31.7%	48.3%	20.0%	-0.5	23
1979-02-11	@ Fiorentina	D 1-1	1721	1652	20.0%	48.3%	31.7%	+0.5	32
1979-02-11	Hellas Verona	W 4-0	1744	1549	67.0%	24.5%	8.5%	+8.9	31
1979-02-11	@ Inter Milan	L 0-4	1549	1744	8.5%	24.5%	67.0%	-8.9	9
1979-02-11	Catanzaro	W 3-1	1776	1640	58.7%	31.9%	9.4%	+5.4	31
1979-02-11	@ Juventus	L 1-3	1640	1776	9.4%	31.9%	58.7%	-5.4	21
1979-02-11	Napoli	D 0-0	1606	1645	35.6%	47.7%	16.7%	-1.0	20
1979-02-11	@ Roma	D 0-0	1645	1606	16.7%	47.7%	35.6%	+1.0	23
1979-02-11	Bologna	D 2-2	1648	1584	48.9%	40.3%	10.8%	-1.5	20
1979-02-11	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 2-2	1584	1648	10.8%	40.3%	48.9%	+1.5	12
1979-02-18	Atalanta	D 1-1	1790	1568	70.8%	21.2%	8.0%	-3.3	43
1979-02-18	@ AC Milan	D 1-1	1568	1790	8.0%	21.2%	70.8%	+3.3	13
1979-02-18	Roma	L 1-2	1585	1605	37.9%	47.0%	15.1%	-10.2	12
1979-02-18	@ Bologna	W 2-1	1605	1585	15.1%	47.0%	37.9%	+10.2	23
1979-02-18	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1635	1753	25.4%	47.4%	27.1%	+0.1	22
1979-02-18	@ Catanzaro	D 1-1	1753	1635	27.1%	47.4%	25.4%	-0.1	32
1979-02-18	Avellino	L 0-1	1540	1652	26.2%	47.7%	26.1%	-8.6	9
1979-02-18	@ Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1652	1540	26.1%	47.7%	26.2%	+8.6	21
1979-02-18	Fiorentina	W 4-0	1645	1652	39.6%	46.3%	14.1%	+21.6	26
1979-02-18	@ Lazio Roma	L 0-4	1652	1645	14.1%	46.3%	39.6%	-21.6	23
1979-02-18	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 2-2	1646	1647	40.4%	45.9%	13.8%	-1.0	24
1979-02-18	@ Napoli	D 2-2	1647	1646	13.8%	45.9%	40.4%	+1.0	21
1979-02-18	Juventus	D 0-0	1722	1781	32.9%	48.2%	18.9%	-0.8	33
1979-02-18	@ Perugia	D 0-0	1781	1722	18.9%	48.2%	32.9%	+0.8	32
1979-02-18	Ascoli	W 3-1	1769	1613	61.5%	29.4%	9.1%	+4.9	35
1979-02-18	@ Torino	L 1-3	1613	1769	9.1%	29.4%	61.5%	-4.9	19
1979-03-04	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1608	1532	50.5%	39.0%	10.5%	+4.3	22
1979-03-04	@ Ascoli	L 0-1	1532	1608	10.5%	39.0%	50.5%	-4.3	9
1979-03-04	Napoli	W 2-1	1571	1645	31.1%	48.3%	20.6%	+7.2	16
1979-03-04	@ Atalanta	L 1-2	1645	1571	20.6%	48.3%	31.1%	-7.2	24
1979-03-04	Perugia	L 0-1	1661	1721	32.8%	48.2%	19.0%	-9.8	21
1979-03-04	@ Avellino	W 1-0	1721	1661	19.0%	48.2%	32.8%	+9.8	36
1979-03-04	AC Milan	L 2-3	1630	1787	21.3%	45.4%	33.3%	-6.7	23
1979-03-04	@ Fiorentina	W 3-2	1787	1630	33.3%	45.4%	21.3%	+6.7	46
1979-03-04	Torino	D 0-0	1753	1774	37.9%	47.0%	15.2%	-1.3	33
1979-03-04	@ Inter Milan	D 0-0	1774	1753	15.2%	47.0%	37.9%	+1.3	36
1979-03-04	Bologna	D 1-1	1782	1575	68.7%	23.0%	8.3%	-3.2	33
1979-03-04	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1575	1782	8.3%	23.0%	68.7%	+3.2	13
1979-03-04	Catanzaro	L 1-3	1615	1635	38.0%	46.9%	15.1%	-17.6	23
1979-03-04	@ Roma	W 3-1	1635	1615	15.1%	46.9%	38.0%	+17.6	25
1979-03-04	Lazio Roma	W 4-1	1648	1666	38.1%	46.9%	15.0%	+14.6	24
1979-03-04	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	L 1-4	1666	1648	15.0%	46.9%	38.1%	-14.6	26
1979-03-11	Juventus	D 0-0	1793	1779	42.3%	44.8%	12.8%	-1.7	47
1979-03-11	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1779	1793	12.8%	44.8%	42.3%	+1.7	34
1979-03-11	Fiorentina	D 0-0	1578	1623	34.7%	47.9%	17.4%	-0.9	14
1979-03-11	@ Bologna	D 0-0	1623	1578	17.4%	47.9%	34.7%	+0.9	24
1979-03-11	Avellino	D 0-0	1652	1651	40.6%	45.8%	13.6%	-1.6	26
1979-03-11	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1651	1652	13.6%	45.8%	40.6%	+1.6	22
1979-03-11	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1527	1662	23.5%	46.7%	29.8%	+0.3	10
1979-03-11	@ Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1662	1527	29.8%	46.7%	23.5%	-0.3	25
1979-03-11	Ascoli	W 3-1	1652	1612	45.6%	42.8%	11.7%	+8.2	29
1979-03-11	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-3	1612	1652	11.7%	42.8%	45.6%	-8.2	22
1979-03-11	Inter Milan	D 0-0	1638	1752	25.9%	47.6%	26.5%	+0.0	25
1979-03-11	@ Napoli	D 0-0	1752	1638	26.5%	47.6%	25.9%	-0.0	34
1979-03-11	Atalanta	W 2-0	1731	1578	61.1%	29.8%	9.1%	+5.8	39
1979-03-11	@ Perugia	L 0-2	1578	1731	9.1%	29.8%	61.1%	-5.8	16
1979-03-11	Roma	W 1-0	1775	1598	64.6%	26.7%	8.7%	+2.7	39
1979-03-11	@ Torino	L 0-1	1598	1775	8.7%	26.7%	64.6%	-2.7	23
1979-03-18	Perugia	D 0-0	1604	1737	23.8%	46.8%	29.4%	+0.3	23
1979-03-18	@ Ascoli	D 0-0	1737	1604	29.4%	46.8%	23.8%	-0.3	40
1979-03-18	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1572	1528	46.3%	42.3%	11.5%	+4.9	19
1979-03-18	@ Atalanta	L 0-1	1528	1572	11.5%	42.3%	46.3%	-4.9	10
1979-03-18	Bologna	D 0-0	1653	1577	50.3%	39.1%	10.5%	-2.4	23
1979-03-18	@ Avellino	D 0-0	1577	1653	10.5%	39.1%	50.3%	+2.4	15
1979-03-18	Catanzaro	D 1-1	1624	1651	37.1%	47.2%	15.6%	-1.1	25
1979-03-18	@ Fiorentina	D 1-1	1651	1624	15.6%	47.2%	37.1%	+1.1	27
1979-03-18	AC Milan	D 2-2	1752	1792	35.4%	47.8%	16.9%	-0.7	35
1979-03-18	@ Inter Milan	D 2-2	1792	1752	16.9%	47.8%	35.4%	+0.7	48
1979-03-18	Napoli	W 1-0	1781	1638	59.7%	31.0%	9.2%	+3.2	37
1979-03-18	@ Juventus	L 0-1	1638	1781	9.2%	31.0%	59.7%	-3.2	25
1979-03-18	Lazio Roma	L 1-2	1595	1660	32.2%	48.2%	19.6%	-9.2	23
1979-03-18	@ Roma	W 2-1	1660	1595	19.6%	48.2%	32.2%	+9.2	32
1979-03-18	Torino	D 2-2	1662	1778	25.8%	47.6%	26.7%	+0.0	26
1979-03-18	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 2-2	1778	1662	26.7%	47.6%	25.8%	-0.0	40
1979-03-25	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1792	1662	57.9%	32.6%	9.4%	-3.0	49
1979-03-25	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1662	1792	9.4%	32.6%	57.9%	+3.0	27
1979-03-25	Atalanta	W 1-0	1580	1577	40.8%	45.7%	13.6%	+5.8	18
1979-03-25	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1577	1580	13.6%	45.7%	40.8%	-5.8	19
1979-03-25	Ascoli	D 1-1	1652	1604	46.6%	42.0%	11.4%	-1.9	28
1979-03-25	@ Catanzaro	D 1-1	1604	1652	11.4%	42.0%	46.6%	+1.9	24
1979-03-25	Fiorentina	L 0-1	1523	1623	27.7%	48.0%	24.3%	-8.9	10
1979-03-25	@ Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1623	1523	24.3%	48.0%	27.7%	+8.9	28
1979-03-25	Inter Milan	D 1-1	1669	1751	30.1%	48.3%	21.6%	-0.4	33
1979-03-25	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1751	1669	21.6%	48.3%	30.1%	+0.4	36
1979-03-25	Avellino	W 3-0	1634	1650	38.5%	46.8%	14.8%	+17.1	28
1979-03-25	@ Napoli	L 0-3	1650	1634	14.8%	46.8%	38.5%	-17.1	23
1979-03-25	Roma	D 1-1	1737	1586	60.8%	30.0%	9.1%	-2.8	41
1979-03-25	@ Perugia	D 1-1	1586	1737	9.1%	30.0%	60.8%	+2.8	24
1979-03-25	Juventus	L 0-1	1778	1784	39.7%	46.2%	14.1%	-11.1	40
1979-03-25	@ Torino	W 1-0	1784	1778	14.1%	46.2%	39.7%	+11.1	40
1979-04-01	Napoli	L 0-1	1789	1651	59.0%	31.7%	9.3%	-13.8	49
1979-04-01	@ AC Milan	W 1-0	1651	1789	9.3%	31.7%	59.0%	+13.9	31
1979-04-01	Juventus	W 1-0	1606	1795	18.8%	42.8%	38.4%	+10.4	27
1979-04-01	@ Ascoli	L 0-1	1795	1606	38.4%	42.8%	18.8%	-10.4	40
1979-04-01	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1572	1751	19.4%	43.6%	37.0%	-6.9	19
1979-04-01	@ Atalanta	W 1-0	1751	1572	37.0%	43.6%	19.4%	+6.9	39
1979-04-01	Bologna	D 0-0	1650	1585	48.9%	40.3%	10.8%	-2.3	29
1979-04-01	@ Catanzaro	D 0-0	1585	1650	10.8%	40.3%	48.9%	+2.3	19
1979-04-01	Avellino	W 1-0	1632	1633	40.4%	45.9%	13.7%	+5.9	31
1979-04-01	@ Fiorentina	L 0-1	1633	1632	13.7%	45.9%	40.4%	-5.9	23
1979-04-01	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1514	1669	21.5%	45.5%	33.0%	+18.1	13
1979-04-01	@ Hellas Verona	L 0-2	1669	1514	33.0%	45.5%	21.5%	-18.1	33
1979-04-01	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 3-0	1589	1665	30.8%	48.3%	20.9%	+21.0	27
1979-04-01	@ Roma	L 0-3	1665	1589	20.9%	48.3%	30.8%	-21.0	27
1979-04-01	Perugia	D 0-0	1766	1734	44.7%	43.4%	11.9%	-2.0	41
1979-04-01	@ Torino	D 0-0	1734	1766	11.9%	43.4%	44.7%	+2.0	42
1979-04-08	Roma	D 0-0	1627	1610	42.7%	44.6%	12.7%	-1.8	24
1979-04-08	@ Avellino	D 0-0	1610	1627	12.7%	44.6%	42.7%	+1.8	28
1979-04-08	Hellas Verona	W 1-0	1588	1532	47.7%	41.2%	11.1%	+4.7	22
1979-04-08	@ Bologna	L 0-1	1532	1588	11.1%	41.2%	47.7%	-4.7	13
1979-04-08	Ascoli	D 1-1	1758	1617	59.5%	31.2%	9.3%	-2.8	40
1979-04-08	@ Inter Milan	D 1-1	1617	1758	9.3%	31.2%	59.5%	+2.8	28
1979-04-08	Atalanta	W 3-0	1785	1565	70.5%	21.5%	8.0%	+6.0	43
1979-04-08	@ Juventus	L 0-3	1565	1785	8.0%	21.5%	70.5%	-6.0	19
1979-04-08	Catanzaro	W 3-1	1651	1648	40.9%	45.6%	13.5%	+9.5	36
1979-04-08	@ Lazio Roma	L 1-3	1648	1651	13.5%	45.6%	40.9%	-9.5	29
1979-04-08	Torino	L 0-1	1665	1765	27.9%	48.0%	24.1%	-8.9	31
1979-04-08	@ Napoli	W 1-0	1765	1665	24.1%	48.0%	27.9%	+8.9	44
1979-04-08	AC Milan	D 1-1	1736	1776	35.4%	47.8%	16.8%	-0.9	43
1979-04-08	@ Perugia	D 1-1	1776	1736	16.8%	47.8%	35.4%	+0.9	50
1979-04-08	Fiorentina	L 0-1	1644	1638	41.2%	45.4%	13.3%	-11.4	27
1979-04-08	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	W 1-0	1638	1644	13.3%	45.4%	41.2%	+11.4	34
1979-04-14	Ascoli	W 3-2	1559	1620	32.7%	48.2%	19.1%	+6.5	22
1979-04-14	@ Atalanta	L 2-3	1620	1559	19.1%	48.2%	32.7%	-6.5	28
1979-04-14	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 2-1	1625	1633	39.6%	46.3%	14.2%	+5.7	27
1979-04-14	@ Avellino	L 1-2	1633	1625	14.2%	46.3%	39.6%	-5.7	27
1979-04-14	Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1592	1660	31.9%	48.3%	19.9%	+7.0	25
1979-04-14	@ Bologna	L 1-2	1660	1592	19.9%	48.3%	31.9%	-7.0	36
1979-04-14	Catanzaro	D 0-0	1527	1638	26.4%	47.7%	25.9%	-0.0	14
1979-04-14	@ Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1638	1527	25.9%	47.7%	26.4%	+0.0	30
1979-04-14	Juventus	W 2-1	1756	1791	36.0%	47.6%	16.4%	+6.3	43
1979-04-14	@ Inter Milan	L 1-2	1791	1756	16.4%	47.6%	36.0%	-6.3	43
1979-04-14	Napoli	W 2-0	1735	1656	50.7%	38.8%	10.4%	+8.1	46
1979-04-14	@ Perugia	L 0-2	1656	1735	10.4%	38.8%	50.7%	-8.1	31
1979-04-14	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1611	1649	35.6%	47.7%	16.7%	-0.9	29
1979-04-14	@ Roma	D 1-1	1649	1611	16.7%	47.7%	35.6%	+0.9	35
1979-04-14	AC Milan	L 0-3	1773	1776	40.1%	46.0%	13.9%	-30.6	44
1979-04-14	@ Torino	W 3-0	1776	1773	13.9%	46.0%	40.1%	+30.6	53
1979-04-22	Hellas Verona	W 2-1	1807	1527	78.1%	15.0%	6.9%	+1.5	56
1979-04-22	@ AC Milan	L 1-2	1527	1807	6.9%	15.0%	78.1%	-1.5	14
1979-04-22	Avellino	W 2-0	1613	1631	38.2%	46.9%	15.0%	+11.9	31
1979-04-22	@ Ascoli	L 0-2	1631	1613	15.0%	46.9%	38.2%	-11.9	27
1979-04-22	Perugia	D 1-1	1638	1743	27.2%	47.9%	24.9%	-0.1	31
1979-04-22	@ Catanzaro	D 1-1	1743	1638	24.9%	47.9%	27.2%	+0.1	47
1979-04-22	Atalanta	L 0-1	1650	1565	51.7%	38.0%	10.3%	-13.0	35
1979-04-22	@ Fiorentina	W 1-0	1565	1650	10.3%	38.0%	51.7%	+13.0	25
1979-04-22	Roma	W 4-1	1784	1610	64.1%	27.1%	8.8%	+6.4	46
1979-04-22	@ Juventus	L 1-4	1610	1784	8.8%	27.1%	64.1%	-6.4	29
1979-04-22	Torino	D 0-0	1653	1743	29.1%	48.2%	22.7%	-0.3	37
1979-04-22	@ Lazio Roma	D 0-0	1743	1653	22.7%	48.2%	29.1%	+0.3	45
1979-04-22	Bologna	W 2-1	1648	1600	46.8%	41.9%	11.3%	+4.6	34
1979-04-22	@ Napoli	L 1-2	1600	1648	11.3%	41.9%	46.8%	-4.6	25
1979-04-22	Inter Milan	L 0-1	1627	1762	23.5%	46.7%	29.8%	-8.0	27
1979-04-22	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	W 1-0	1762	1627	29.8%	46.7%	23.5%	+8.0	46
1979-04-29	Lanerossi Vicenza	D 0-0	1625	1619	41.2%	45.4%	13.3%	-1.6	32
1979-04-29	@ Ascoli	D 0-0	1619	1625	13.3%	45.4%	41.2%	+1.6	28
1979-04-29	Avellino	D 0-0	1578	1619	35.3%	47.8%	17.0%	-1.0	26
1979-04-29	@ Atalanta	D 0-0	1619	1578	17.0%	47.8%	35.3%	+1.0	28
1979-04-29	Torino	D 1-1	1595	1743	22.1%	46.0%	31.9%	+0.5	26
1979-04-29	@ Bologna	D 1-1	1743	1595	31.9%	46.0%	22.1%	-0.5	46
1979-04-29	AC Milan	L 1-3	1638	1809	20.2%	44.4%	35.5%	-11.7	31
1979-04-29	@ Catanzaro	W 3-1	1809	1638	35.5%	44.4%	20.2%	+11.7	59
1979-04-29	Perugia	D 1-1	1526	1743	17.1%	40.0%	42.9%	+1.3	15
1979-04-29	@ Hellas Verona	D 1-1	1743	1526	42.9%	40.0%	17.1%	-1.3	48
1979-04-29	Roma	L 1-2	1770	1604	62.9%	28.1%	8.9%	-13.5	46
1979-04-29	@ Inter Milan	W 2-1	1604	1770	8.9%	28.1%	62.9%	+13.5	32
1979-04-29	Fiorentina	D 1-1	1791	1637	61.2%	29.7%	9.1%	-2.8	47
1979-04-29	@ Juventus	D 1-1	1637	1791	9.1%	29.7%	61.2%	+2.8	36
1979-04-29	Napoli	L 1-2	1653	1653	40.5%	45.8%	13.7%	-10.6	37
1979-04-29	@ Lazio Roma	W 2-1	1653	1653	13.7%	45.8%	40.5%	+10.6	37
1979-05-06	Bologna	D 0-0	1820	1595	71.1%	20.9%	8.0%	-3.7	60
1979-05-06	@ AC Milan	D 0-0	1595	1820	8.0%	20.9%	71.1%	+3.7	27
1979-05-06	Inter Milan	W 1-0	1620	1756	23.4%	46.6%	30.0%	+9.2	31
1979-05-06	@ Avellino	L 0-1	1756	1620	30.0%	46.6%	23.4%	-9.2	46
1979-05-06	Ascoli	W 1-0	1640	1623	42.7%	44.6%	12.7%	+5.5	39
1979-05-06	@ Fiorentina	L 0-1	1623	1640	12.7%	44.6%	42.7%	-5.5	32
1979-05-06	Catanzaro	W 1-0	1664	1626	45.3%	43.0%	11.8%	+5.1	40
1979-05-06	@ Napoli	L 0-1	1626	1664	11.8%	43.0%	45.3%	-5.1	31
1979-05-06	Lazio Roma	W 2-0	1742	1642	53.6%	36.4%	10.0%	+7.4	51
1979-05-06	@ Perugia	L 0-2	1642	1742	10.0%	36.4%	53.6%	-7.4	37
1979-05-06	Atalanta	D 2-2	1617	1577	45.7%	42.7%	11.6%	-1.4	33
1979-05-06	@ Roma	D 2-2	1577	1617	11.6%	42.7%	45.7%	+1.4	27
1979-05-06	Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1743	1527	69.9%	22.0%	8.1%	-3.7	47
1979-05-06	@ Torino	D 0-0	1527	1743	8.1%	22.0%	69.9%	+3.6	16
1979-05-06	Juventus	D 1-1	1621	1788	20.4%	44.6%	35.0%	+0.7	29
1979-05-06	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	D 1-1	1788	1621	35.0%	44.6%	20.4%	-0.7	48
1979-05-13	Roma	D 0-0	1618	1616	40.7%	45.7%	13.6%	-1.6	33
1979-05-13	@ Ascoli	D 0-0	1616	1618	13.6%	45.7%	40.7%	+1.6	34
1979-05-13	Lanerossi Vicenza	W 2-0	1578	1621	35.0%	47.8%	17.1%	+13.0	30
1979-05-13	@ Atalanta	L 0-2	1621	1578	17.1%	47.8%	35.0%	-13.0	29
1979-05-13	Perugia	D 2-2	1599	1749	22.0%	45.8%	32.2%	+0.4	28
1979-05-13	@ Bologna	D 2-2	1749	1599	32.2%	45.8%	22.0%	-0.4	52
1979-05-13	Torino	W 2-1	1621	1739	25.5%	47.5%	27.0%	+8.2	34
1979-05-13	@ Catanzaro	L 1-2	1739	1621	27.0%	47.5%	25.5%	-8.2	47
1979-05-13	Napoli	D 0-0	1531	1669	23.2%	46.6%	30.2%	+0.4	17
1979-05-13	@ Hellas Verona	D 0-0	1669	1531	30.2%	46.6%	23.2%	-0.4	41
1979-05-13	Fiorentina	L 1-2	1747	1646	53.9%	36.1%	10.0%	-12.5	46
1979-05-13	@ Inter Milan	W 2-1	1646	1747	10.0%	36.1%	53.9%	+12.5	42
1979-05-13	Avellino	D 3-3	1787	1629	61.8%	29.1%	9.0%	-1.8	49
1979-05-13	@ Juventus	D 3-3	1629	1787	9.0%	29.1%	61.8%	+1.8	32
1979-05-13	AC Milan	D 1-1	1635	1817	19.3%	43.4%	37.3%	+0.9	38
1979-05-13	@ Lazio Roma	D 1-1	1817	1635	37.3%	43.4%	19.3%	-0.9	61

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1979-04-29	8.91%	Roma	1604	2	@ Inter Milan	1770	1
2	1979-04-01	9.33%	Napoli	1651	1	@ AC Milan	1789	0
3	1979-01-14	9.69%	Lanerossi Vicenza	1651	2	@ Juventus	1767	1
4	1979-05-13	9.95%	Fiorentina	1646	2	@ Inter Milan	1747	1
5	1978-10-22	10.14%	Perugia	1675	2	@ Juventus	1767	1
6	1979-04-22	10.29%	Atalanta	1565	1	@ Fiorentina	1650	0
7	1978-10-08	12.18%	Lazio Roma	1643	3	@ Avellino	1670	1
8	1979-01-07	12.21%	Lazio Roma	1634	2	@ Napoli	1661	0
9	1979-04-08	13.32%	Fiorentina	1638	1	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	1644	0
10	1979-04-29	13.69%	Napoli	1653	2	@ Lazio Roma	1653	1
11	1979-04-14	13.88%	AC Milan	1776	3	@ Torino	1773	0
12	1979-03-25	14.10%	Juventus	1784	1	@ Torino	1778	0
13	1979-01-28	14.40%	Catanzaro	1607	2	@ Atalanta	1596	0
14	1979-03-04	15.06%	Catanzaro	1635	3	@ Roma	1615	1
15	1979-02-18	15.11%	Roma	1605	2	@ Bologna	1585	1
16	1978-10-29	15.70%	Ascoli	1637	3	@ Hellas Verona	1610	2
17	1978-10-08	17.44%	AC Milan	1688	3	@ Roma	1642	0
18	1979-04-01	18.79%	@ Ascoli	1606	1	Juventus	1795	0
19	1979-03-04	18.99%	Perugia	1721	1	@ Avellino	1661	0
20	1979-03-18	19.55%	Lazio Roma	1660	2	@ Roma	1595	1
21	1978-12-17	19.88%	@ Roma	1594	1	Juventus	1768	0
22	1978-10-01	20.68%	Inter Milan	1697	1	@ Bologna	1622	0
23	1978-11-05	21.15%	Perugia	1686	2	@ Atalanta	1608	0
24	1979-01-21	21.15%	Inter Milan	1738	2	@ Fiorentina	1660	1
25	1979-04-01	21.51%	@ Hellas Verona	1514	2	Lazio Roma	1669	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1979-04-14	30.62	AC Milan	3	1776	13.88%	@ Torino	0	1773	40.10%
2	1978-10-08	27.90	AC Milan	3	1688	17.44%	@ Roma	0	1642	34.64%
3	1978-10-22	24.48	@ Ascoli	3	1613	24.34%	Torino	0	1740	28.59%
4	1979-01-07	22.31	Lazio Roma	2	1634	12.21%	@ Napoli	0	1661	43.96%
5	1979-02-18	21.62	@ Lazio Roma	4	1645	39.59%	Fiorentina	0	1652	14.15%
6	1979-04-01	21.04	@ Roma	3	1589	30.75%	Lanerossi Vicenza	0	1665	20.95%
7	1979-01-28	20.77	Catanzaro	2	1607	14.40%	@ Atalanta	0	1596	39.14%
8	1978-10-08	19.34	Lazio Roma	3	1643	12.18%	@ Avellino	1	1670	44.03%
9	1979-02-04	18.30	Juventus	3	1758	38.63%	@ Hellas Verona	0	1568	18.69%
10	1979-04-01	18.12	@ Hellas Verona	2	1514	21.51%	Lazio Roma	0	1669	32.98%
11	1978-11-05	17.75	Perugia	2	1686	21.15%	@ Atalanta	0	1608	30.55%
12	1979-03-04	17.65	Catanzaro	3	1635	15.06%	@ Roma	1	1615	38.01%
13	1979-03-25	17.10	@ Napoli	3	1634	38.47%	Avellino	0	1650	14.78%
14	1978-11-05	16.75	Torino	2	1715	24.20%	@ Roma	0	1615	27.78%
15	1978-10-22	16.72	@ Fiorentina	3	1651	39.24%	Lazio Roma	0	1660	14.34%
16	1978-11-19	16.66	@ Inter Milan	4	1707	48.12%	Lazio Roma	0	1649	10.99%
17	1978-11-12	15.87	@ Torino	4	1732	49.65%	Lanerossi Vicenza	0	1661	10.66%
18	1978-10-22	15.25	AC Milan	3	1713	21.55%	@ Atalanta	1	1632	30.17%
19	1978-10-15	15.18	@ Bologna	5	1614	31.26%	Lanerossi Vicenza	2	1686	20.44%
20	1979-03-04	14.57	@ Lanerossi Vicenza	4	1648	38.11%	Lazio Roma	1	1666	15.00%
21	1979-04-01	13.86	Napoli	1	1651	9.33%	@ AC Milan	0	1789	59.00%
22	1979-04-29	13.45	Roma	2	1604	8.91%	@ Inter Milan	1	1770	62.95%
23	1979-04-22	12.98	Atalanta	1	1565	10.29%	@ Fiorentina	0	1650	51.68%
24	1979-05-13	12.96	@ Atalanta	2	1578	35.05%	Lanerossi Vicenza	0	1621	17.12%
25	1979-01-14	12.74	Lanerossi Vicenza	2	1651	9.69%	@ Juventus	1	1767	55.93%