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2003-04 Serie A Season

306 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

AC Milan

82 points · 17th Title

Last Title: 1998-99

Relegated

Ancona

13 pts

Modena · 30 pts

Empoli · 30 pts

Perugia · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

AC Milan

18.31 points above expected

82 points · 63.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ancona

13.67 points below expected

13 points · 26.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 AC Milan Champion 34 25 7 2 82 65 24 +41 63.69 +18.31
2 Roma 34 21 8 5 71 68 19 +49 64.66 +6.34
3 Juventus 34 21 6 7 69 67 42 +25 65.89 +3.11
4 Inter Milan 34 17 8 9 59 59 37 +22 60.45 -1.45
5 Parma 34 16 10 8 58 57 46 +11 54.72 +3.28
6 Lazio Roma 34 16 8 10 56 52 38 +14 56.74 -0.74
7 Udinese 34 13 11 10 50 44 40 +4 47.60 +2.40
8 Sampdoria 34 11 13 10 46 40 42 -2 40.13 +5.87
9 Chievo Verona 34 11 11 12 44 36 37 -1 46.67 -2.67
10 Lecce 34 11 8 15 41 43 56 -13 34.66 +6.34
11 Brescia 34 9 13 12 40 52 57 -5 44.22 -4.22
12 Bologna 34 10 9 15 39 45 53 -8 39.47 -0.47
13 Reggina 34 6 16 12 34 29 45 -16 38.76 -4.76
14 Siena 34 8 10 16 34 41 54 -13 40.49 -6.49
15 Perugia Relegated 34 6 14 14 32 44 56 -12 37.94 -5.94
16 Modena Relegated 34 6 12 16 30 27 46 -19 36.24 -6.24
17 Empoli Relegated 34 7 9 18 30 26 54 -28 34.33 -4.33
18 Ancona Relegated 34 2 7 25 13 21 70 -49 26.67 -13.67

Notes

  • After being relegated on points, Ancona reemerged as a phoenix in Serie C.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AC Milan 82 63.69 +18.31
2 Roma 71 64.66 +6.34
3 Lecce 41 34.66 +6.34
4 Sampdoria 46 40.13 +5.87
5 Parma 58 54.72 +3.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ancona 13 26.67 -13.67
2 Siena 34 40.49 -6.49
3 Modena 30 36.24 -6.24
4 Perugia 32 37.94 -5.94
5 Reggina 34 38.76 -4.76

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lecce 3 Apr 17 – May 2 1 in 193
2 Perugia 3 May 2 – May 16 1 in 113
3 Inter Milan 6 Nov 2 – Dec 14 1 in 95
4 Udinese 4 Nov 30 – Dec 21 1 in 65
5 AC Milan 7 Jan 6 – Feb 8 1 in 62

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Milan 4 Feb 15 – Mar 7 1 in 141
2 Empoli 5 Oct 5 – Nov 8 1 in 69
3 Lecce 5 Sep 21 – Oct 25 1 in 46
4 Ancona 6 Nov 30 – Jan 11 1 in 37
5 Siena 5 Jan 28 – Feb 22 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AC Milan 19 Jan 6 – May 2 1 in 63
2 Lecce 7 Feb 1 – Mar 13 1 in 61
3 Roma 14 Aug 31 – Dec 20 1 in 52
4 Sampdoria 8 Nov 2 – Jan 6 1 in 31
5 Empoli 5 Feb 22 – Mar 21 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Perugia 21 Aug 31 – Feb 14 1 in 1,264
2 Ancona 28 Sep 1 – Apr 4 1 in 377
3 Chievo Verona 9 Feb 22 – Apr 18 1 in 50
4 Inter Milan 6 Feb 8 – Mar 14 1 in 39
5 Modena 11 Nov 9 – Feb 1 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
AC Milan 2114 82 +1 10 9.9 +0.1
Roma 2095 71 -26 5 9.6 -4.6
Juventus 2060 69 -9 7 9.9 -2.9
Inter Milan 2025 59 +4 10 9.2 +0.8
Parma 1988 58 +0 8 8.3 -0.3
Lazio Roma 2001 56 -6 6 8.2 -2.2
Udinese 1925 50 +1 5 6.3 -1.3
Sampdoria 1863 46 -19 4 6.0 -2.0
Chievo Verona 1916 44 +21 11 8.4 +2.6
Lecce 1845 41 +35 13 5.1 +7.9
Brescia 1893 40 +10 8 6.2 +1.8
Bologna 1859 39 -16 4 6.5 -2.5
Reggina 1831 34 +10 6 4.1 +1.9
Siena 1834 34 -13 3 5.1 -2.1
Perugia 1854 32 +32 10 5.1 +4.9
Empoli 1799 30 -1 4 5.3 -1.3
Modena 1792 30 -19 3 4.7 -1.7
Ancona 1682 13 -8 3 3.3 -0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ANC BOL BRE CV EMP IM JUV LR LEC MOD PAR PER REG ROM SAM SIE UDI
AC Milan —
2-0-0
4.31
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.53
2-0-0
2.89
1-1-0
2.57
2-0-0
3.04
1-1-0
4.21
1-1-0
4.35
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
4.01
1-0-1
4.37
2-0-0
2.56
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.26
0-1-1
3.90
Ancona
0-0-2
1.27
 —
1-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
1.68
0-0-2
1.50
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
1.11
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.15
0-1-1
1.81
0-2-0
1.86
0-1-1
1.03
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.63
Bologna
0-0-2
1.53
1-0-1
3.75
 —
1-1-0
2.32
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-2
1.51
0-0-2
1.39
1-0-1
1.73
1-1-0
2.99
0-1-1
3.00
0-2-0
1.83
0-1-1
2.90
0-2-0
2.87
1-0-1
1.39
0-0-2
2.72
1-1-0
2.64
2-0-0
2.19
Brescia
0-0-2
1.52
1-1-0
3.81
0-1-1
3.08
 —
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
3.34
1-1-0
1.92
0-0-2
1.55
2-0-0
1.91
1-0-1
3.23
0-2-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.06
0-2-0
3.13
0-2-0
3.01
1-0-1
1.80
0-1-1
2.99
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-2
2.50
Chievo Verona
0-1-1
1.72
2-0-0
3.98
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
2.81
 —
1-1-0
3.59
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
3.16
0-0-2
2.23
2-0-0
3.28
0-2-0
3.20
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
3.23
1-1-0
3.21
0-2-0
2.60
Empoli
0-0-2
1.08
1-0-1
3.37
1-0-1
2.17
0-1-1
2.08
0-1-1
1.84
 —
1-0-1
1.26
0-1-1
1.23
0-1-1
1.49
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.47
1-1-0
2.39
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.01
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
1.78
Inter Milan
0-0-2
2.51
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
3.98
0-1-1
3.52
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
4.30
 —
2-0-0
2.22
0-1-1
3.00
1-0-1
4.23
1-1-0
3.97
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.84
0-1-1
2.28
0-2-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.82
0-1-1
3.51
Juventus
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.76
1-1-0
4.33
0-0-2
3.19
 —
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
4.50
2-0-0
4.27
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
4.33
2-0-0
4.14
0-1-1
3.05
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.15
1-1-0
3.81
Lazio Roma
0-0-2
2.35
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
3.72
0-0-2
3.52
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
2.09
 —
2-0-0
3.94
1-1-0
3.99
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.83
0-1-1
3.90
0-1-1
2.19
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.30
Lecce
0-1-1
1.32
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
1.99
1-1-0
2.76
1-0-1
1.32
1-1-0
1.10
0-0-2
1.54
 —
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
2.54
2-0-0
2.46
0-0-2
1.13
0-2-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
1.83
Modena
0-1-1
1.21
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.39
0-2-0
2.39
0-0-2
2.25
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
1.52
0-0-2
1.28
0-1-1
1.52
1-0-1
2.93
 —
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.16
1-1-0
2.37
0-0-2
2.53
0-0-2
2.08
Parma
0-1-1
2.13
2-0-0
4.45
0-2-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.18
1-0-1
4.03
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
3.65
 —
1-1-0
3.72
0-1-1
3.84
0-0-2
2.20
2-0-0
3.59
1-1-0
3.59
1-1-0
3.14
Perugia
0-1-1
1.51
1-1-0
3.65
1-1-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
3.01
0-0-2
1.43
1-0-1
1.23
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.67
0-1-1
1.73
 —
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
1.17
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.65
0-2-0
2.08
Reggina
1-0-1
1.20
0-2-0
3.57
0-2-0
2.54
0-2-0
2.38
0-2-0
2.20
1-1-0
2.86
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
1.39
1-1-0
1.58
0-0-2
2.95
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
1.63
0-1-1
2.83
 —
0-1-1
1.31
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.65
0-0-2
2.07
Roma
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
4.59
1-0-1
4.15
1-0-1
3.64
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
4.63
1-1-0
3.15
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.42
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
4.41
1-1-0
4.22
 —
1-1-0
4.22
1-1-0
3.98
1-1-0
3.37
Sampdoria
0-0-2
1.44
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.39
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
3.15
0-2-0
1.57
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-1
1.71
0-2-0
3.09
0-1-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
2.67
0-1-1
1.32
 —
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.28
Siena
0-0-2
1.28
1-1-0
3.54
0-1-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.45
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
1.68
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
1.86
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
2.74
0-1-1
1.53
0-1-1
2.65
 —
1-1-0
2.18
Udinese
1-1-0
1.57
2-0-0
3.87
0-0-2
3.23
2-0-0
2.89
0-2-0
2.80
1-0-1
3.66
1-1-0
1.93
0-1-1
1.65
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
2.25
0-2-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
2.08
1-0-1
3.13
0-1-1
3.22
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +10.9
Allowed 0.72 -11.9
Differential 0.94 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.46%7.35%5.88%2.94%1.14%0.65%28.43%
17.35%11.76%7.84%4.25%0.98%0.16%32.35%
25.88%7.84%5.88%2.29%0.98%0.33%23.20%
32.94%4.25%2.29%0.98%0.49%—10.95%
41.14%0.98%0.98%0.49%0.33%—3.92%
5+0.65%0.16%0.33%———1.14%
Total28.43%32.35%23.20%10.95%3.92%1.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.68
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 306

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%—————5.88%
117.65%11.76%5.88%———35.29%
211.76%14.71%2.94%———29.41%
35.88%14.71%2.94%———23.53%
4——2.94%———2.94%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total44.12%41.18%14.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.71 +1.21
SD 1.11 0.72 1.20
CV 0.58 1.02 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%11.76%20.59%14.71%—2.94%61.76%
1—8.82%2.94%5.88%——17.65%
2—2.94%—8.82%2.94%2.94%17.65%
3——2.94%———2.94%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.76%23.53%26.47%29.41%2.94%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 2.06 -1.44
SD 0.89 1.30 1.33
CV 1.44 0.63 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%5.88%11.76%—2.94%—32.35%
1—5.88%11.76%———17.65%
22.94%11.76%8.82%5.88%5.88%—35.29%
32.94%8.82%2.94%———14.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%32.35%35.29%5.88%8.82%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.56 -0.24
SD 1.09 1.13 1.52
CV 0.83 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%2.94%2.94%2.94%—2.94%20.59%
18.82%17.65%8.82%2.94%——38.24%
22.94%2.94%8.82%5.88%2.94%—23.53%
3—2.94%——2.94%—5.88%
4—2.94%2.94%—2.94%—8.82%
5+——2.94%———2.94%
Total20.59%29.41%26.47%11.76%8.82%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.68 -0.15
SD 1.31 1.34 1.62
CV 0.86 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.65%8.82%8.82%2.94%——38.24%
15.88%11.76%2.94%8.82%——29.41%
28.82%8.82%2.94%2.94%——23.53%
32.94%2.94%————5.88%
4—2.94%————2.94%
5+———————
Total35.29%35.29%14.71%14.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.09 -0.03
SD 1.07 1.06 1.53
CV 1.01 0.97 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%8.82%14.71%8.82%5.88%—44.12%
111.76%14.71%8.82%——2.94%38.24%
28.82%—2.94%2.94%——14.71%
3———2.94%——2.94%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.47%23.53%26.47%14.71%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.76 1.59 -0.82
SD 0.82 1.35 1.70
CV 1.07 0.85 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.71%5.88%————20.59%
15.88%2.94%8.82%5.88%2.94%—26.47%
214.71%2.94%5.88%2.94%——26.47%
32.94%5.88%8.82%———17.65%
42.94%—2.94%———5.88%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total44.12%17.65%26.47%8.82%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.74 1.09 +0.65
SD 1.40 1.16 1.81
CV 0.81 1.07 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%2.94%2.94%—2.94%—11.76%
114.71%5.88%—5.88%——26.47%
211.76%8.82%5.88%2.94%——29.41%
32.94%5.88%5.88%2.94%2.94%—20.59%
42.94%2.94%2.94%———8.82%
5+—2.94%————2.94%
Total35.29%29.41%17.65%11.76%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 1.24 +0.74
SD 1.27 1.23 1.75
CV 0.64 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%11.76%2.94%2.94%——23.53%
18.82%11.76%8.82%———29.41%
22.94%17.65%5.88%2.94%——29.41%
35.88%2.94%————8.82%
4—2.94%2.94%———5.88%
5+——2.94%———2.94%
Total23.53%47.06%23.53%5.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.12 +0.41
SD 1.28 0.84 1.48
CV 0.84 0.76 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%5.88%2.94%5.88%——23.53%
12.94%8.82%14.71%8.82%5.88%—41.18%
22.94%14.71%5.88%———23.53%
3—5.88%2.94%———8.82%
4———2.94%——2.94%
5+———————
Total14.71%35.29%26.47%17.65%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.65 -0.38
SD 1.02 1.12 1.50
CV 0.81 0.68 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%14.71%11.76%5.88%2.94%—38.24%
15.88%29.41%5.88%5.88%——47.06%
25.88%2.94%2.94%———11.76%
32.94%—————2.94%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%47.06%20.59%11.76%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.35 -0.56
SD 0.77 1.01 1.50
CV 0.97 0.75 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%5.88%2.94%2.94%2.94%—20.59%
15.88%8.82%2.94%2.94%2.94%—23.53%
25.88%8.82%14.71%———29.41%
35.88%8.82%5.88%———20.59%
42.94%——2.94%——5.88%
5+———————
Total26.47%32.35%26.47%8.82%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.35 +0.32
SD 1.20 1.15 1.77
CV 0.72 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%11.76%2.94%2.94%——23.53%
15.88%14.71%11.76%2.94%2.94%—38.24%
2—5.88%14.71%5.88%——26.47%
3—2.94%—5.88%——8.82%
4——2.94%———2.94%
5+———————
Total11.76%35.29%32.35%17.65%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.65 -0.35
SD 1.03 1.01 1.15
CV 0.80 0.61 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.53%8.82%11.76%——2.94%47.06%
1—14.71%5.88%5.88%——26.47%
22.94%14.71%5.88%———23.53%
3———————
4————2.94%—2.94%
5+———————
Total26.47%38.24%23.53%5.88%2.94%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 1.32 -0.47
SD 0.99 1.30 1.42
CV 1.16 0.98 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.71%5.88%————20.59%
18.82%5.88%5.88%2.94%——23.53%
211.76%2.94%2.94%———17.65%
311.76%8.82%————20.59%
45.88%5.88%————11.76%
5+5.88%—————5.88%
Total58.82%29.41%8.82%2.94%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.56 +1.44
SD 1.60 0.79 1.88
CV 0.80 1.41 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%5.88%2.94%2.94%——23.53%
111.76%14.71%8.82%8.82%——44.12%
28.82%5.88%8.82%———23.53%
3——5.88%2.94%——8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total32.35%26.47%26.47%14.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.24 -0.06
SD 0.90 1.07 1.23
CV 0.77 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.65%8.82%——2.94%2.94%32.35%
12.94%8.82%17.65%5.88%——35.29%
2—5.88%2.94%—5.88%2.94%17.65%
32.94%2.94%2.94%———8.82%
45.88%—————5.88%
5+———————
Total29.41%26.47%23.53%5.88%8.82%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.59 -0.38
SD 1.17 1.58 1.99
CV 0.97 0.99 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%5.88%5.88%———23.53%
114.71%14.71%8.82%2.94%2.94%—44.12%
22.94%8.82%2.94%———14.71%
35.88%2.94%—2.94%2.94%—14.71%
4———2.94%——2.94%
5+———————
Total35.29%32.35%17.65%8.82%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.18 +0.12
SD 1.09 1.19 1.37
CV 0.84 1.01 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
AC Milan 2114 82 63.69 +18.31 100.0% 48 54 60 64 68 72 76
Roma 2095 71 64.66 +6.34 79.0% 49 52 59 65 70 76 80
Juventus 2060 69 65.89 +3.11 73.0% 48 54 61 66 71 77 84
Inter Milan 2025 59 60.45 -1.45 41.0% 43 48 56 60 64 72 75
Lazio Roma 2001 56 56.74 -0.74 51.0% 38 43 53 56 61 68 76
Parma 1988 58 54.72 +3.28 69.0% 35 45 50 56 59 65 70
Udinese 1925 50 47.60 +2.40 64.0% 31 36 43 48 53 58 65
Chievo Verona 1916 44 46.67 -2.67 38.0% 31 37 42 46 51 57 60
Brescia 1893 40 44.22 -4.22 32.0% 22 34 40 43 49 54 64
Sampdoria 1863 46 40.13 +5.87 76.0% 24 28 35 39 46 52 56
Bologna 1859 39 39.47 -0.47 54.0% 25 29 35 38 44 50 59
Lecce 1845 41 34.66 +6.34 86.0% 17 23 31 35 39 46 49
Perugia 1843 32 37.94 -5.94 27.0% 23 28 32 38 42 48 59
Siena 1834 34 40.49 -6.49 16.0% 23 29 37 41 45 50 55
Reggina 1831 34 38.76 -4.76 27.0% 18 27 34 38 44 49 56
Empoli 1799 30 34.33 -4.33 34.0% 15 25 29 33 39 47 51
Modena 1792 30 36.24 -6.24 21.0% 19 25 31 36 41 48 53
Ancona 1682 13 26.67 -13.67 0.0% 14 17 23 26 31 35 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 21% * Slight Edge: 21% to 27.5% * Clear Edge: 27.5% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.69%
No Edge
43.14%29.41%27.45%
Elo Value
Home Edge
178 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
054.95500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 9th * Longshot: 10th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.23 * Runaway: 0.23 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
AC Milan, 3rd of 18
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.32/gm
Runaway
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.42 * Some Luck: 5.42 to 8.13 * Lucky: 8.13 to 10.84 * Wild Swing: 10.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.73 * Close: 1.73 to 2.6 * Off: 2.6 to 3.46 * Way Off: 3.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 18 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 18 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 18 * As Expected: 18 to 28.8 * Several Outliers: 28.8 to 39.6 * Many Outliers: 39.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.98 * A Surprise: 0.98 to 1.57 * Several Surprises: 1.57 to 2.16 * Many Surprises: 2.16 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.86 points
Some Luck
06.7817
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.165
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 97.22%
100.00%
AC Milan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 2.78%
0.00%
Ancona
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 18
Minimal Outliers
01.89
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 4
A Surprise
01.04

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.14 * Top-Heavy: 0.14 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 64% * Slight Edge: 64% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 72% * Wide Edge: 72% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90.5% * Strong Edge: 90.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 62.5% * Some Drama: 62.5% to 66.5% * Frequent: 66.5% to 71% * Very Frequent: 71% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 11% * Occasional: 11% to 13.5% * Frequent: 13.5% to 16.5% * Very Frequent: 16.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Lopsided
00.130.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 116.03
2.31
Wide Separation
11.651.852.052.75
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%64%72%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Some Drama
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.49 * Notable Separation: 0.49 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18% * Upset-Prone: 18% to 19.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 19.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Slight Separation
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.28
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.560.731
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.15 * Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.2 * Well Above Noise: 0.2 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.1000.25

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fiorentina 2
Perugia 1

Leg 1: Perugia 0-1 Fiorentina

Leg 2: Fiorentina 1-1 Perugia

Sim: 9.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112131415161718
AC Milan21.00%28.00%18.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%—1.00%1.00%—————————
Roma31.00%19.00%17.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%3.00%———————————
Juventus32.00%25.00%20.00%13.00%4.00%5.00%1.00%———————————
Inter Milan11.00%14.00%21.00%17.00%13.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%————————
Parma—6.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%15.00%15.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%——2.00%————
Lazio Roma5.00%8.00%9.00%18.00%24.00%19.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%—2.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Udinese——3.00%4.00%4.00%9.00%21.00%16.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%——1.00%
Sampdoria————3.00%5.00%2.00%8.00%13.00%11.00%5.00%7.00%12.00%9.00%8.00%10.00%4.00%3.00%
Chievo Verona———3.00%5.00%8.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%——
Lecce———————4.00%4.00%1.00%8.00%9.00%8.00%14.00%16.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%
Brescia——1.00%—4.00%7.00%10.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%6.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
Bologna——1.00%——1.00%4.00%10.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%1.00%
Reggina————1.00%2.00%2.00%9.00%9.00%10.00%5.00%7.00%11.00%14.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%2.00%
Siena————1.00%—4.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%15.00%8.00%15.00%9.00%7.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%
Perugia————1.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%17.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%9.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%1.00%
Modena—————1.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%4.00%9.00%9.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%16.00%13.00%8.00%
Empoli——————3.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%10.00%7.00%9.00%6.00%15.00%12.00%21.00%10.00%
Ancona———————————1.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%18.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
AC Milan 100% — —
Inter Milan 100% — —
Juventus 100% — —
Lazio Roma 100% — —
Parma 100% — —
Roma 100% — —
Chievo Verona 98.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Udinese 98.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Brescia 94.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Siena 81.00% 7.00% 12.00%
Sampdoria 75.00% 8.00% 17.00%
Bologna 71.00% 11.00% 18.00%
Reggina 70.00% 11.00% 19.00%
Modena 55.00% 8.00% 37.00%
Lecce 48.00% 16.00% 36.00%
Empoli 42.00% 15.00% 43.00%
Ancona 8.00% 4.00% 88.00%
Perugia — 100% —
Loser →
↓ Winner
AlbinoLeffeAnconaAscoliAtalantaAvellinoBariBolognaBresciaCagliariCataniaChievo VeronaComoEmpoliFiorentinaGenoaHellas VeronaInter MilanLazio RomaLecceLivornoMessinaModenaNapoliPalermoParmaPerugiaPescaraPiacenzaRegginaSalernitanaSampdoriaSienaTernanaTorinoTrevisoTriestinaUdineseVeneziaVicenza
AlbinoLeffe48.1%27.00%44.8%29.00%20.0%10.00%25.0%8.00%35.7%42.00%15.3%59.00%40.4%47.00%17.0%53.00%29.2%48.00%26.7%30.00%21.1%38.00%0.0%6.00%
Ancona51.9%27.00%38.5%13.00%36.4%22.00%100.0%9.00%50.0%2.00%35.1%57.00%23.1%13.00%80.0%5.00%55.6%18.00%66.7%6.00%53.3%15.00%26.7%60.00%35.6%45.00%28.6%7.00%27.8%54.00%30.8%52.00%66.7%3.00%44.6%56.00%31.4%35.00%0.0%6.00%43.2%37.00%70.0%10.00%46.7%30.00%
Ascoli61.5%13.00%19.0%21.00%11.1%9.00%33.3%3.00%50.0%26.00%0.0%1.00%21.1%38.00%45.9%37.00%32.1%28.00%34.8%23.00%31.2%16.00%4.5%22.00%0.0%2.00%
Atalanta63.6%22.00%63.3%30.00%31.2%16.00%25.0%8.00%46.9%32.00%42.4%33.00%61.3%31.00%42.9%35.00%52.6%38.00%50.0%22.00%42.4%33.00%25.0%4.00%
Avellino0.0%9.00%0.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%75.0%4.00%25.0%12.00%0.0%1.00%14.3%7.00%0.0%4.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%10.00%16.7%6.00%11.1%9.00%
Bari50.0%2.00%0.0%9.00%33.3%3.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%20.00%35.7%14.00%33.3%21.00%26.3%19.00%35.7%14.00%21.4%14.00%21.1%19.00%
Bologna55.2%29.00%81.0%21.00%36.7%30.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%9.00%54.4%68.00%66.7%24.00%84.6%13.00%68.0%25.00%71.4%7.00%79.2%24.00%60.0%75.00%52.8%72.00%71.4%21.00%54.7%75.00%76.8%69.00%0.0%1.00%70.3%91.00%69.4%85.00%71.4%14.00%67.2%64.00%92.9%14.00%56.4%39.00%
Brescia80.0%10.00%88.9%9.00%68.8%16.00%50.0%4.00%66.7%3.00%63.0%27.00%76.9%13.00%75.0%4.00%84.6%13.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%11.00%54.5%33.00%56.2%32.00%87.5%8.00%57.8%45.00%100.0%3.00%74.4%43.00%100.0%1.00%75.9%29.00%81.1%37.00%100.0%4.00%74.1%27.00%100.0%1.00%81.8%11.00%
Cagliari64.9%57.00%45.6%68.00%37.0%27.00%33.3%18.00%60.0%105.00%0.0%2.00%46.3%108.00%59.1%110.00%39.6%96.00%48.5%99.00%46.2%78.00%54.5%77.00%50.0%20.00%
Catania76.9%13.00%33.3%24.00%23.1%13.00%0.0%5.00%37.3%51.00%23.9%46.00%28.6%35.00%0.0%1.00%17.1%41.00%32.4%37.00%31.8%22.00%31.6%19.00%50.0%2.00%
Chievo Verona75.0%8.00%66.7%3.00%75.0%8.00%25.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%66.7%18.00%100.0%5.00%66.7%3.00%75.0%4.00%40.0%5.00%100.0%3.00%46.7%15.00%60.9%23.00%60.0%5.00%63.2%19.00%100.0%1.00%61.1%18.00%0.0%1.00%83.3%18.00%88.2%17.00%66.7%3.00%73.7%19.00%100.0%2.00%77.8%9.00%
Como20.0%5.00%15.4%13.00%25.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%22.2%18.00%0.0%14.00%33.3%15.00%5.9%17.00%11.1%9.00%21.4%14.00%0.0%9.00%50.0%2.00%
Empoli64.3%42.00%50.0%26.00%53.1%32.00%75.0%12.00%50.0%20.00%40.0%105.00%62.7%51.00%77.8%18.00%61.9%42.00%71.4%7.00%66.7%30.00%47.7%109.00%39.8%108.00%52.4%21.00%42.2%102.00%58.4%101.00%53.2%124.00%63.2%114.00%60.0%15.00%65.6%90.00%88.9%18.00%66.7%54.00%
Fiorentina44.4%18.00%32.0%25.00%15.4%13.00%25.0%4.00%38.1%42.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%35.7%28.00%51.2%41.00%29.0%31.00%40.0%40.00%40.0%20.00%28.6%14.00%0.0%3.00%
Genoa33.3%6.00%28.6%7.00%33.3%3.00%60.0%5.00%28.6%7.00%37.5%8.00%44.4%9.00%40.0%10.00%40.0%10.00%0.0%5.00%57.1%7.00%0.0%1.00%
Hellas Verona46.7%15.00%20.8%24.00%0.0%11.00%0.0%3.00%33.3%30.00%30.0%30.00%36.8%38.00%30.0%40.00%13.3%30.00%31.0%29.00%36.4%22.00%0.0%2.00%
Inter Milan100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Lazio Roma100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Lecce84.7%59.00%78.9%38.00%57.6%33.00%85.7%7.00%64.3%14.00%53.7%108.00%76.1%46.00%100.0%14.00%64.3%28.00%62.5%8.00%70.0%30.00%53.7%147.00%53.9%102.00%63.3%30.00%51.0%104.00%100.0%1.00%71.2%104.00%100.0%1.00%65.5%113.00%74.0%104.00%85.7%21.00%53.2%94.00%77.8%9.00%74.1%54.00%
Livorno73.3%60.00%40.0%75.00%45.5%33.00%53.3%15.00%52.3%109.00%0.0%1.00%46.3%147.00%63.3%109.00%100.0%2.00%49.5%107.00%40.0%115.00%52.7%74.00%51.8%83.00%33.3%15.00%
Messina64.4%45.00%47.2%72.00%43.8%32.00%39.1%23.00%60.2%108.00%0.0%1.00%46.1%102.00%60.8%97.00%0.0%1.00%45.2%104.00%45.4%97.00%45.3%75.00%39.8%83.00%41.2%17.00%
Modena59.6%47.00%54.1%37.00%38.7%31.00%100.0%4.00%66.7%21.00%40.9%110.00%71.4%35.00%66.7%15.00%48.8%41.00%55.6%9.00%63.2%38.00%36.7%109.00%39.2%97.00%57.7%26.00%43.8%105.00%49.5%105.00%60.0%95.00%64.0%114.00%71.4%21.00%67.0%94.00%50.0%8.00%63.8%69.00%
Napoli71.4%7.00%28.6%21.00%12.5%8.00%40.0%5.00%47.6%21.00%36.7%30.00%42.3%26.00%20.6%34.00%21.4%14.00%15.4%13.00%21.7%23.00%100.0%1.00%
Palermo72.2%54.00%45.3%75.00%42.2%45.00%36.8%19.00%57.8%102.00%100.0%1.00%49.0%104.00%56.2%105.00%100.0%1.00%52.3%111.00%53.7%95.00%43.8%73.00%48.6%70.00%57.1%14.00%
Parma100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Perugia83.0%53.00%67.9%28.00%57.1%35.00%80.0%5.00%73.7%19.00%60.4%96.00%82.9%41.00%94.1%17.00%71.0%31.00%60.0%10.00%70.0%40.00%50.5%107.00%54.8%104.00%79.4%34.00%47.7%111.00%60.2%88.00%100.0%1.00%64.8%125.00%80.2%101.00%66.7%15.00%65.2%66.00%66.7%6.00%76.0%50.00%
Pescara0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Piacenza69.2%52.00%23.2%69.00%25.6%43.00%38.9%18.00%41.6%101.00%0.0%1.00%28.8%104.00%50.5%105.00%39.8%88.00%43.3%90.00%33.9%59.00%44.8%87.00%8.3%12.00%
Reggina70.8%48.00%65.2%23.00%47.4%38.00%100.0%10.00%64.3%14.00%51.5%99.00%67.6%37.00%88.9%9.00%60.0%40.00%60.0%10.00%86.7%30.00%60.0%115.00%54.6%97.00%78.6%14.00%46.3%95.00%56.7%90.00%100.0%1.00%58.8%102.00%70.7%82.00%80.0%10.00%65.2%89.00%100.0%5.00%76.7%60.00%
Salernitana33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sampdoria73.3%30.00%68.8%16.00%50.0%22.00%83.3%6.00%78.6%14.00%53.8%78.00%68.2%22.00%78.6%14.00%60.0%20.00%100.0%5.00%69.0%29.00%47.3%74.00%54.7%75.00%84.6%13.00%56.2%73.00%66.1%59.00%68.3%82.00%74.3%70.00%75.0%4.00%75.5%49.00%87.5%8.00%73.5%49.00%
Siena78.9%38.00%95.5%22.00%57.6%33.00%88.9%9.00%78.9%19.00%45.5%77.00%68.4%19.00%100.0%9.00%71.4%14.00%42.9%7.00%63.6%22.00%48.2%83.00%60.2%83.00%78.3%23.00%51.4%70.00%100.0%1.00%55.2%87.00%100.0%1.00%66.3%86.00%63.9%72.00%88.9%9.00%71.2%73.00%50.0%12.00%74.0%50.00%
Ternana55.4%56.00%29.7%91.00%24.1%29.00%16.7%18.00%46.8%124.00%0.0%1.00%34.5%113.00%40.0%95.00%35.2%125.00%41.2%102.00%31.7%82.00%33.7%86.00%31.2%16.00%
Torino68.6%35.00%30.6%85.00%18.9%37.00%11.8%17.00%36.8%114.00%0.0%2.00%26.0%104.00%36.0%114.00%0.0%1.00%19.8%101.00%29.3%82.00%25.7%70.00%36.1%72.00%11.1%9.00%
Treviso100.0%6.00%28.6%14.00%0.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%40.0%15.00%0.0%1.00%14.3%21.00%28.6%21.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%15.00%20.0%10.00%25.0%4.00%11.1%9.00%50.0%2.00%
Triestina56.8%37.00%32.8%64.00%25.9%27.00%26.3%19.00%34.4%90.00%0.0%1.00%46.8%94.00%33.0%94.00%0.0%2.00%34.8%66.00%34.8%89.00%24.5%49.00%28.8%73.00%25.0%8.00%
Udinese100.0%6.00%100.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%20.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%66.7%15.00%58.8%17.00%0.0%1.00%42.9%14.00%91.7%12.00%68.8%16.00%88.9%9.00%50.0%2.00%75.0%8.00%87.5%8.00%
Venezia30.0%10.00%7.1%14.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%11.1%18.00%0.0%1.00%22.2%9.00%50.0%8.00%33.3%6.00%0.0%5.00%12.5%8.00%50.0%12.00%
Vicenza53.3%30.00%43.6%39.00%18.2%11.00%22.2%9.00%33.3%54.00%25.9%54.00%36.2%69.00%24.0%50.00%23.3%60.00%26.5%49.00%26.0%50.00%12.5%8.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Perugia 70.00%
Fiorentina 30.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FiorentinaPerugia
Fiorentina30.0%100.00%
Perugia70.0%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-08-30 Sampdoria D 2-277.2 1873 1837 47.11% 29.58% 23.31%+0.51 -0.7 1
2003-08-30 @ Reggina D 2-277.2 1837 1873 23.31% 29.58% 47.11%-0.51 +0.7 1
2003-08-31 Chievo Verona D 1-171.1 1910 1930 39.63% 30.92% 29.45%+0.20 -0.4 1
2003-08-31 @ Brescia D 1-171.1 1930 1910 29.45% 30.92% 39.63%-0.20 +0.4 1
2003-08-31 Empoli W 5-150.6 2048 1867 64.66% 22.20% 13.14%+1.33 +8.8 3
2003-08-31 @ Juventus L 1-550.6 1867 2048 13.14% 22.20% 64.66%-1.33 -8.8 0
2003-08-31 Lecce W 4-152.6 1994 1836 62.11% 23.56% 14.32%+1.20 +7.5 3
2003-08-31 @ Lazio Roma L 1-452.6 1836 1994 14.32% 23.56% 62.11%-1.20 -7.5 0
2003-08-31 Modena W 2-050.1 1994 1852 60.29% 24.50% 15.22%+1.11 +6.6 3
2003-08-31 @ Inter Milan L 0-250.1 1852 1994 15.22% 24.50% 60.29%-1.11 -6.6 0
2003-08-31 Parma D 2-277.0 1866 1979 27.08% 30.57% 42.36%-0.32 +0.4 1
2003-08-31 @ Bologna D 2-277.0 1979 1866 42.36% 30.57% 27.08%+0.32 -0.4 1
2003-08-31 Roma L 1-267.5 1918 1966 35.63% 31.18% 33.19%+0.04 -7.0 0
2003-08-31 @ Udinese W 2-167.5 1966 1918 33.19% 31.18% 35.63%-0.04 +7.0 3
2003-08-31 Siena D 2-277.2 1873 1839 47.03% 29.60% 23.38%+0.50 -0.7 1
2003-08-31 @ Perugia D 2-277.2 1839 1873 23.38% 29.60% 47.03%-0.50 +0.7 1
2003-09-01 AC Milan L 0-253.1 1813 1983 21.21% 28.73% 50.07%-0.65 -9.3 0
2003-09-01 @ Ancona W 2-053.1 1983 1813 50.07% 28.73% 21.21%+0.65 +9.3 3
2003-09-13 Bologna W 2-160.0 1992 1866 58.42% 25.40% 16.18%+1.02 +3.5 6
2003-09-13 @ AC Milan L 1-260.0 1866 1992 16.18% 25.40% 58.42%-1.02 -3.5 1
2003-09-13 Lazio Roma L 1-262.8 1838 2002 21.85% 29.01% 49.14%-0.61 -4.8 1
2003-09-13 @ Sampdoria W 2-162.8 2002 1838 49.14% 29.01% 21.85%+0.61 +4.8 6
2003-09-14 Ancona W 3-160.0 1828 1803 45.78% 29.90% 24.32%+0.45 +9.1 3
2003-09-14 @ Lecce L 1-360.0 1803 1828 24.32% 29.90% 45.78%-0.45 -9.1 0
2003-09-14 Brescia W 5-051.8 1973 1909 50.78% 28.49% 20.73%+0.67 +21.3 6
2003-09-14 @ Roma L 0-551.8 1909 1973 20.73% 28.49% 50.78%-0.67 -21.3 1
2003-09-14 Inter Milan L 0-157.3 1839 2000 22.07% 29.10% 48.83%-0.60 -5.1 1
2003-09-14 @ Siena W 1-057.3 2000 1839 48.83% 29.10% 22.07%+0.60 +5.1 6
2003-09-14 Juventus L 1-264.3 1930 2056 25.53% 30.23% 44.23%-0.40 -5.5 1
2003-09-14 @ Chievo Verona W 2-164.3 2056 1930 44.23% 30.23% 25.53%+0.40 +5.4 6
2003-09-14 Perugia W 3-049.4 1978 1873 56.00% 26.49% 17.51%+0.90 +11.2 4
2003-09-14 @ Parma L 0-349.4 1873 1978 17.51% 26.49% 56.00%-0.90 -11.2 1
2003-09-14 Reggina D 1-171.1 1858 1872 40.39% 30.84% 28.77%+0.23 -0.5 1
2003-09-14 @ Empoli D 1-171.1 1872 1858 28.77% 30.84% 40.39%-0.23 +0.5 2
2003-09-14 Udinese L 0-161.1 1845 1911 33.00% 31.17% 35.82%-0.06 -7.0 0
2003-09-14 @ Modena W 1-061.1 1911 1845 35.82% 31.17% 33.00%+0.06 +7.0 3
2003-09-20 Empoli W 4-054.4 1834 1857 39.13% 30.97% 29.90%+0.18 +23.4 4
2003-09-20 @ Siena L 0-454.4 1857 1834 29.90% 30.97% 39.13%-0.18 -23.4 1
2003-09-20 Modena D 1-170.9 1794 1838 36.18% 31.16% 32.66%+0.06 -0.1 1
2003-09-20 @ Ancona D 1-170.9 1838 1794 32.66% 31.16% 36.18%-0.06 +0.1 1
2003-09-21 AC Milan D 1-171.4 1861 1996 24.66% 30.00% 45.34%-0.45 +0.8 2
2003-09-21 @ Perugia D 1-171.4 1996 1861 45.34% 30.00% 24.66%+0.45 -0.8 7
2003-09-21 Chievo Verona L 1-265.8 1838 1924 30.23% 31.01% 38.76%-0.18 -6.2 3
2003-09-21 @ Lecce W 2-165.8 1924 1838 38.76% 31.01% 30.23%+0.18 +6.2 4
2003-09-21 Parma L 2-375.0 2006 1989 44.67% 30.14% 25.19%+0.40 -7.8 6
2003-09-21 @ Lazio Roma W 3-275.0 1989 2006 25.19% 30.14% 44.67%-0.40 +7.8 7
2003-09-21 Reggina D 4-482.5 1888 1872 44.51% 30.18% 25.32%+0.40 -0.4 2
2003-09-21 @ Brescia D 4-482.5 1872 1888 25.32% 30.18% 44.51%-0.40 +0.4 3
2003-09-21 Roma D 2-277.7 2062 1994 51.27% 28.33% 20.40%+0.69 -0.9 7
2003-09-21 @ Juventus D 2-277.7 1994 2062 20.40% 28.33% 51.27%-0.69 +1.0 7
2003-09-21 Sampdoria D 0-068.9 2005 1833 63.68% 22.73% 13.59%+1.28 -2.4 7
2003-09-21 @ Inter Milan D 0-068.9 1833 2005 13.59% 22.73% 63.68%-1.28 +2.4 2
2003-09-21 Udinese W 2-057.8 1863 1918 34.53% 31.19% 34.28%+0.00 +13.6 4
2003-09-21 @ Bologna L 0-257.8 1918 1863 34.28% 31.19% 34.53%+0.00 -13.6 3
2003-09-27 Inter Milan D 0-066.5 1905 2003 28.79% 30.84% 40.36%-0.24 +0.5 4
2003-09-27 @ Udinese D 0-066.5 2003 1905 40.36% 30.84% 28.79%+0.24 -0.5 8
2003-09-27 Juventus L 0-252.5 1873 2061 19.76% 27.98% 52.27%-0.75 -8.7 3
2003-09-27 @ Reggina W 2-052.5 2061 1873 52.27% 27.98% 19.76%+0.75 +8.7 10
2003-09-28 Ancona W 3-046.2 1995 1794 66.86% 20.96% 12.18%+1.44 +7.3 10
2003-09-28 @ Roma L 0-346.2 1794 1995 12.18% 20.96% 66.86%-1.44 -7.3 1
2003-09-28 Bologna W 2-057.0 1838 1876 36.99% 31.13% 31.88%+0.09 +12.9 4
2003-09-28 @ Modena L 0-257.0 1876 1838 31.88% 31.13% 36.99%-0.09 -12.9 4
2003-09-28 Brescia W 2-166.9 1836 1888 35.02% 31.19% 33.79%+0.02 +6.7 5
2003-09-28 @ Sampdoria L 1-266.9 1888 1836 33.79% 31.19% 35.02%-0.02 -6.7 2
2003-09-28 Lazio Roma D 2-277.5 1834 1999 21.75% 28.97% 49.29%-0.62 +0.8 2
2003-09-28 @ Empoli D 2-277.5 1999 1834 49.29% 28.97% 21.75%+0.62 -0.8 7
2003-09-28 Lecce W 3-047.4 1995 1831 62.76% 23.22% 14.01%+1.23 +8.7 10
2003-09-28 @ AC Milan L 0-347.4 1831 1995 14.01% 23.22% 62.76%-1.23 -8.7 3
2003-09-28 Perugia W 4-155.8 1931 1862 51.41% 28.28% 20.31%+0.69 +10.9 7
2003-09-28 @ Chievo Verona L 1-455.8 1862 1931 20.31% 28.28% 51.41%-0.69 -10.9 2
2003-09-28 Siena D 1-173.0 1997 1858 60.01% 24.64% 15.36%+1.09 -1.9 8
2003-09-28 @ Parma D 1-173.0 1858 1997 15.36% 24.64% 60.01%-1.09 +1.9 5
2003-10-05 AC Milan L 1-365.8 2003 2004 42.18% 30.60% 27.23%+0.30 -13.7 8
2003-10-05 @ Inter Milan W 3-165.8 2004 2003 27.23% 30.60% 42.18%-0.30 +13.7 13
2003-10-05 Bologna W 2-157.3 2069 1864 67.35% 20.68% 11.97%+1.47 +2.5 13
2003-10-05 @ Juventus L 1-257.3 1864 2069 11.97% 20.68% 67.35%-1.47 -2.5 4
2003-10-05 Brescia L 1-460.8 1823 1881 34.10% 31.19% 34.71%-0.02 -16.6 3
2003-10-05 @ Lecce W 4-160.8 1881 1823 34.71% 31.19% 34.10%+0.02 +16.6 5
2003-10-05 Chievo Verona W 1-057.0 1998 1942 49.82% 28.80% 21.37%+0.62 +5.0 10
2003-10-05 @ Lazio Roma L 0-157.0 1942 1998 21.37% 28.80% 49.82%-0.62 -5.0 7
2003-10-05 Modena L 0-357.4 1835 1851 40.09% 30.88% 29.04%+0.22 -22.0 2
2003-10-05 @ Empoli W 3-057.4 1851 1835 29.04% 30.88% 40.09%-0.22 +22.0 7
2003-10-05 Reggina D 0-066.4 1851 1864 40.56% 30.82% 28.62%+0.24 -0.5 3
2003-10-05 @ Perugia D 0-066.4 1864 1851 28.62% 30.82% 40.56%-0.24 +0.5 4
2003-10-05 Roma D 0-066.8 1860 2003 23.79% 29.74% 46.48%-0.50 +1.0 6
2003-10-05 @ Siena D 0-066.8 2003 1860 46.48% 29.74% 23.79%+0.50 -1.0 11
2003-10-05 Sampdoria W 1-053.4 1995 1843 61.52% 23.87% 14.61%+1.17 +3.3 11
2003-10-05 @ Parma L 0-153.4 1843 1995 14.61% 23.87% 61.52%-1.17 -3.3 5
2003-10-05 Udinese L 0-353.2 1787 1905 26.40% 30.43% 43.17%-0.36 -16.3 1
2003-10-05 @ Ancona W 3-053.2 1905 1787 43.17% 30.43% 26.40%+0.36 +16.3 7
2003-10-18 Inter Milan D 2-276.9 1898 1989 29.67% 30.95% 39.38%-0.20 +0.3 6
2003-10-18 @ Brescia D 2-276.9 1989 1898 39.38% 30.95% 29.67%+0.20 -0.3 9
2003-10-18 Juventus L 2-362.9 1770 2072 12.76% 21.71% 65.53%-1.39 -2.5 1
2003-10-18 @ Ancona W 3-262.9 2072 1770 65.53% 21.71% 12.76%+1.39 +2.5 16
2003-10-19 Empoli W 2-051.2 1922 1813 56.38% 26.33% 17.29%+0.92 +7.6 10
2003-10-19 @ Udinese L 0-251.2 1813 1922 17.29% 26.33% 56.38%-0.92 -7.6 2
2003-10-19 Lazio Roma W 1-058.6 2017 2003 44.38% 30.20% 25.42%+0.39 +5.8 16
2003-10-19 @ AC Milan L 0-158.6 2003 2017 25.42% 30.20% 44.38%-0.39 -5.8 10
2003-10-19 Lecce W 2-052.7 1873 1806 51.24% 28.34% 20.42%+0.69 +9.0 10
2003-10-19 @ Modena L 0-252.7 1806 1873 20.42% 28.34% 51.24%-0.69 -9.0 3
2003-10-19 Parma W 2-055.4 2002 1999 42.77% 30.50% 26.73%+0.33 +11.3 14
2003-10-19 @ Roma L 0-255.4 1999 2002 26.73% 30.50% 42.77%-0.33 -11.3 11
2003-10-19 Perugia D 2-277.0 1861 1851 43.78% 30.32% 25.90%+0.37 -0.5 5
2003-10-19 @ Bologna D 2-277.0 1851 1861 25.90% 30.32% 43.78%-0.37 +0.5 4
2003-10-19 Sampdoria D 1-172.3 1937 1839 55.01% 26.91% 18.08%+0.86 -1.5 8
2003-10-19 @ Chievo Verona D 1-172.3 1839 1937 18.08% 26.91% 55.01%-0.86 +1.6 6
2003-10-19 Siena W 2-164.6 1865 1861 42.92% 30.47% 26.60%+0.33 +5.6 7
2003-10-19 @ Reggina L 1-264.6 1861 1865 26.60% 30.47% 42.92%-0.33 -5.6 6
2003-10-25 Chievo Verona L 0-158.4 1805 1935 25.15% 30.14% 44.71%-0.42 -5.7 2
2003-10-25 @ Empoli W 1-058.4 1935 1805 44.71% 30.14% 25.15%+0.42 +5.7 11
2003-10-25 Lecce W 2-162.4 1855 1797 50.05% 28.73% 21.22%+0.63 +4.7 9
2003-10-25 @ Siena L 1-262.4 1797 1855 21.22% 28.73% 50.05%-0.63 -4.6 3
2003-10-26 AC Milan L 0-350.8 1841 2023 20.20% 28.22% 51.58%-0.72 -12.9 6
2003-10-26 @ Sampdoria W 3-050.8 2023 1841 51.58% 28.22% 20.20%+0.72 +12.9 19
2003-10-26 Ancona D 0-067.6 1870 1768 55.61% 26.66% 17.73%+0.89 -1.8 8
2003-10-26 @ Reggina D 0-067.6 1768 1870 17.73% 26.66% 55.61%-0.89 +1.8 2
2003-10-26 Bologna W 2-159.6 1997 1861 59.63% 24.82% 15.55%+1.08 +3.4 13
2003-10-26 @ Lazio Roma L 1-259.6 1861 1997 15.55% 24.82% 59.63%-1.08 -3.4 5
2003-10-26 Brescia W 2-048.9 2074 1898 64.18% 22.46% 13.36%+1.30 +5.7 19
2003-10-26 @ Juventus L 0-248.9 1898 2074 13.36% 22.46% 64.18%-1.30 -5.7 6
2003-10-26 Modena W 3-049.5 1987 1882 55.93% 26.52% 17.55%+0.90 +11.2 14
2003-10-26 @ Parma L 0-349.5 1882 1987 17.55% 26.52% 55.93%-0.90 -11.2 10
2003-10-26 Roma D 0-066.5 1989 2013 38.97% 30.99% 30.04%+0.17 -0.4 10
2003-10-26 @ Inter Milan D 0-066.5 2013 1989 30.04% 30.99% 38.97%-0.17 +0.4 15
2003-10-26 Udinese D 3-380.6 1851 1929 31.41% 31.10% 37.49%-0.13 +0.1 5
2003-10-26 @ Perugia D 3-380.6 1929 1851 37.49% 31.10% 31.41%+0.13 -0.2 11
2003-11-01 Juventus D 1-171.1 2036 2080 36.17% 31.16% 32.66%+0.06 -0.1 20
2003-11-01 @ AC Milan D 1-171.1 2080 2036 32.66% 31.16% 36.17%-0.06 +0.1 20
2003-11-01 Lazio Roma L 1-266.5 1929 2000 32.31% 31.15% 36.55%-0.09 -6.5 11
2003-11-01 @ Udinese W 2-166.5 2000 1929 36.55% 31.15% 32.31%+0.09 +6.5 16
2003-11-02 Empoli W 2-164.9 1792 1799 41.39% 30.71% 27.90%+0.27 +5.8 6
2003-11-02 @ Lecce L 1-264.9 1799 1792 27.90% 30.71% 41.39%-0.27 -5.9 2
2003-11-02 Inter Milan L 0-258.2 1941 1988 35.68% 31.18% 33.14%+0.04 -14.0 11
2003-11-02 @ Chievo Verona W 2-058.2 1988 1941 33.14% 31.18% 35.68%-0.04 +14.0 13
2003-11-02 Parma L 2-370.1 1892 1998 27.83% 30.70% 41.47%-0.29 -5.5 6
2003-11-02 @ Brescia W 3-270.1 1998 1892 41.47% 30.70% 27.83%+0.29 +5.5 17
2003-11-02 Perugia W 1-058.3 1871 1851 45.02% 30.07% 24.91%+0.42 +5.7 13
2003-11-02 @ Modena L 0-158.3 1851 1871 24.91% 30.07% 45.02%-0.42 -5.7 5
2003-11-02 Reggina W 2-050.0 2013 1869 60.61% 24.34% 15.06%+1.12 +6.5 18
2003-11-02 @ Roma L 0-250.0 1869 2013 15.06% 24.34% 60.61%-1.12 -6.5 8
2003-11-02 Sampdoria L 0-164.7 1857 1828 46.33% 29.77% 23.90%+0.47 -9.0 5
2003-11-02 @ Bologna W 1-064.7 1828 1857 23.90% 29.77% 46.33%-0.47 +9.0 9
2003-11-02 Siena D 0-066.3 1770 1860 29.84% 30.97% 39.19%-0.20 +0.4 3
2003-11-02 @ Ancona D 0-066.3 1860 1770 39.19% 30.97% 29.84%+0.20 -0.4 10
2003-11-08 Bologna D 0-066.9 1887 1848 47.54% 29.46% 23.00%+0.53 -1.1 7
2003-11-08 @ Brescia D 0-066.9 1848 1887 23.00% 29.46% 47.54%-0.53 +1.1 6
2003-11-08 Empoli W 2-053.6 1837 1794 48.16% 29.30% 22.55%+0.55 +9.8 12
2003-11-08 @ Sampdoria L 0-253.6 1794 1837 22.55% 29.30% 48.16%-0.55 -9.8 2
2003-11-09 AC Milan D 0-066.5 2004 2036 37.88% 31.07% 31.05%+0.13 -0.3 18
2003-11-09 @ Parma D 0-066.5 2036 2004 31.05% 31.07% 37.88%-0.13 +0.3 21
2003-11-09 Ancona W 3-045.2 2002 1770 70.06% 19.10% 10.85%+1.62 +6.3 16
2003-11-09 @ Inter Milan L 0-345.2 1770 2002 10.85% 19.10% 70.06%-1.62 -6.3 3
2003-11-09 Chievo Verona L 1-266.7 1859 1927 32.80% 31.17% 36.03%-0.07 -6.6 10
2003-11-09 @ Siena W 2-166.7 1927 1859 36.03% 31.17% 32.80%+0.07 +6.6 14
2003-11-09 Lazio Roma W 2-054.9 2020 2007 44.14% 30.25% 25.61%+0.38 +10.9 21
2003-11-09 @ Roma L 0-254.9 2007 2020 25.61% 30.25% 44.14%-0.38 -10.9 16
2003-11-09 Lecce D 2-277.3 1846 1798 48.70% 29.14% 22.16%+0.58 -0.8 6
2003-11-09 @ Perugia D 2-277.3 1798 1846 22.16% 29.14% 48.70%-0.58 +0.8 7
2003-11-09 Modena D 1-171.1 1862 1877 40.32% 30.85% 28.83%+0.23 -0.5 9
2003-11-09 @ Reggina D 1-171.1 1877 1862 28.83% 30.85% 40.32%-0.23 +0.4 14
2003-11-09 Udinese W 4-152.7 2080 1922 62.09% 23.58% 14.33%+1.20 +7.5 23
2003-11-09 @ Juventus L 1-452.7 1922 2080 14.33% 23.58% 62.09%-1.20 -7.5 11
2003-11-22 Juventus L 0-251.7 1877 2088 18.04% 26.88% 55.08%-0.88 -7.9 14
2003-11-22 @ Modena W 2-051.7 2088 1877 55.08% 26.88% 18.04%+0.88 +7.9 26
2003-11-22 Reggina W 6-049.8 2008 1862 60.86% 24.21% 14.93%+1.14 +17.9 19
2003-11-22 @ Inter Milan L 0-649.8 1862 2008 14.93% 24.21% 60.86%-1.14 -17.9 9
2003-11-23 AC Milan L 0-255.9 1933 2036 28.23% 30.76% 41.01%-0.27 -11.8 14
2003-11-23 @ Chievo Verona W 2-055.9 2036 1933 41.01% 30.76% 28.23%+0.27 +11.8 24
2003-11-23 Brescia D 1-171.2 1764 1886 26.03% 30.35% 43.62%-0.38 +0.7 4
2003-11-23 @ Ancona D 1-171.2 1886 1764 43.62% 30.35% 26.03%+0.38 -0.7 8
2003-11-23 Parma W 1-066.7 1784 2004 17.39% 26.41% 56.20%-0.93 +10.4 5
2003-11-23 @ Empoli L 0-166.7 2004 1784 56.20% 26.41% 17.39%+0.93 -10.4 18
2003-11-23 Perugia W 3-155.5 1996 1845 61.31% 23.98% 14.71%+1.16 +5.5 19
2003-11-23 @ Lazio Roma L 1-355.5 1845 1996 14.71% 23.98% 61.31%-1.16 -5.5 6
2003-11-23 Roma L 0-450.8 1849 2031 20.29% 28.27% 51.45%-0.71 -16.9 6
2003-11-23 @ Bologna W 4-050.8 2031 1849 51.45% 28.27% 20.29%+0.71 +16.9 24
2003-11-23 Sampdoria D 0-066.3 1799 1847 35.66% 31.18% 33.16%+0.04 -0.1 8
2003-11-23 @ Lecce D 0-066.3 1847 1799 33.16% 31.18% 35.66%-0.04 +0.1 13
2003-11-23 Siena D 1-171.8 1915 1853 50.63% 28.54% 20.83%+0.66 -1.2 12
2003-11-23 @ Udinese D 1-171.8 1853 1915 20.83% 28.54% 50.63%-0.66 +1.2 11
2003-11-29 Inter Milan L 1-367.9 2096 2026 51.51% 28.24% 20.25%+0.70 -15.9 26
2003-11-29 @ Juventus W 3-167.9 2026 2096 20.25% 28.24% 51.51%-0.70 +15.9 22
2003-11-29 Lazio Roma W 3-059.2 1854 2001 23.35% 29.59% 47.07%-0.52 +24.9 14
2003-11-29 @ Siena L 0-359.2 2001 1854 47.07% 29.59% 23.35%+0.52 -24.9 19
2003-11-30 Ancona W 2-052.0 1847 1764 53.14% 27.65% 19.21%+0.77 +8.5 16
2003-11-30 @ Sampdoria L 0-252.0 1764 1847 19.21% 27.65% 53.14%-0.77 -8.5 4
2003-11-30 Bologna D 0-066.6 1844 1832 43.89% 30.30% 25.81%+0.37 -0.8 10
2003-11-30 @ Reggina D 0-066.6 1832 1844 25.81% 30.30% 43.89%-0.37 +0.8 7
2003-11-30 Chievo Verona W 3-158.4 1993 1922 51.82% 28.14% 20.05%+0.71 +7.6 21
2003-11-30 @ Parma L 1-358.4 1922 1993 20.05% 28.14% 51.82%-0.71 -7.6 14
2003-11-30 Empoli D 1-171.5 1839 1794 48.42% 29.22% 22.36%+0.56 -1.1 7
2003-11-30 @ Perugia D 1-171.5 1794 1839 22.36% 29.22% 48.42%-0.56 +1.1 6
2003-11-30 Lecce W 3-152.4 2048 1799 71.71% 18.11% 10.18%+1.71 +3.5 27
2003-11-30 @ Roma L 1-352.4 1799 2048 10.18% 18.11% 71.71%-1.71 -3.5 8
2003-11-30 Modena W 2-048.8 2048 1869 64.45% 22.32% 13.24%+1.32 +5.6 27
2003-11-30 @ AC Milan L 0-248.8 1869 2048 13.24% 22.32% 64.45%-1.32 -5.6 14
2003-11-30 Udinese L 1-268.3 1885 1914 38.33% 31.04% 30.62%+0.15 -7.4 8
2003-11-30 @ Brescia W 2-168.3 1914 1885 30.62% 31.04% 38.33%-0.15 +7.3 15
2003-12-06 AC Milan L 0-153.7 1795 2054 14.99% 24.27% 60.73%-1.15 -3.4 6
2003-12-06 @ Empoli W 1-053.7 2054 1795 60.73% 24.27% 14.99%+1.15 +3.4 30
2003-12-06 Juventus W 2-059.7 1976 2080 28.17% 30.75% 41.08%-0.27 +15.5 22
2003-12-06 @ Lazio Roma L 0-259.7 2080 1976 41.08% 30.75% 28.17%+0.27 -15.5 26
2003-12-07 Ancona W 3-266.6 1833 1756 52.51% 27.89% 19.60%+0.74 +4.1 10
2003-12-07 @ Bologna L 2-366.6 1756 1833 19.60% 27.89% 52.51%-0.74 -4.1 4
2003-12-07 Brescia D 1-171.1 1864 1878 40.41% 30.84% 28.75%+0.23 -0.5 15
2003-12-07 @ Modena D 1-171.1 1878 1864 28.75% 30.84% 40.41%-0.23 +0.5 9
2003-12-07 Parma L 1-261.1 1796 2001 18.42% 27.14% 54.44%-0.85 -4.1 8
2003-12-07 @ Lecce W 2-161.1 2001 1796 54.44% 27.14% 18.42%+0.85 +4.0 24
2003-12-07 Perugia W 2-157.4 2042 1838 67.14% 20.80% 12.06%+1.46 +2.5 25
2003-12-07 @ Inter Milan L 1-257.4 1838 2042 12.06% 20.80% 67.14%-1.46 -2.5 7
2003-12-07 Reggina W 1-056.1 1921 1843 52.63% 27.84% 19.53%+0.75 +4.6 18
2003-12-07 @ Udinese L 0-156.1 1843 1921 19.53% 27.84% 52.63%-0.75 -4.6 10
2003-12-07 Roma L 0-352.5 1914 2051 24.39% 29.92% 45.69%-0.46 -15.3 14
2003-12-07 @ Chievo Verona W 3-052.5 2051 1914 45.69% 29.92% 24.39%+0.46 +15.3 30
2003-12-07 Siena W 2-165.7 1855 1879 39.09% 30.98% 29.94%+0.18 +6.2 19
2003-12-07 @ Sampdoria L 1-265.7 1879 1855 29.94% 30.98% 39.09%-0.18 -6.2 14
2003-12-13 Lecce W 1-054.0 1926 1791 59.38% 24.94% 15.68%+1.06 +3.6 21
2003-12-13 @ Udinese L 0-154.0 1791 1926 15.68% 24.94% 59.38%-1.06 -3.6 8
2003-12-13 Sampdoria D 3-380.6 1836 1861 38.80% 31.00% 30.20%+0.17 -0.2 8
2003-12-13 @ Perugia D 3-380.6 1861 1836 30.20% 31.00% 38.80%-0.17 +0.2 20
2003-12-14 Chievo Verona D 0-066.3 1838 1899 33.82% 31.19% 35.00%-0.03 +0.0 11
2003-12-14 @ Reggina D 0-066.3 1899 1838 35.00% 31.19% 33.82%+0.03 -0.0 15
2003-12-14 Empoli W 2-052.0 1878 1792 53.63% 27.46% 18.91%+0.79 +8.3 12
2003-12-14 @ Brescia L 0-252.0 1792 1878 18.91% 27.46% 53.63%-0.79 -8.3 6
2003-12-14 Inter Milan L 0-251.8 1837 2045 18.27% 27.04% 54.69%-0.86 -8.0 10
2003-12-14 @ Bologna W 2-051.8 2045 1837 54.69% 27.04% 18.27%+0.86 +8.0 28
2003-12-14 Lazio Roma L 0-154.3 1752 1992 16.09% 25.32% 58.59%-1.04 -3.7 4
2003-12-14 @ Ancona W 1-054.3 1992 1752 58.59% 25.32% 16.09%+1.04 +3.7 25
2003-12-14 Modena W 1-051.8 2066 1863 67.07% 20.84% 12.09%+1.45 +2.7 33
2003-12-14 @ Roma L 0-151.8 1863 2066 12.09% 20.84% 67.07%-1.45 -2.6 15
2003-12-14 Parma W 4-051.1 2064 2005 50.25% 28.67% 21.09%+0.64 +17.6 29
2003-12-14 @ Juventus L 0-451.1 2005 2064 21.09% 28.67% 50.25%-0.64 -17.5 24
2003-12-20 Reggina L 1-273.0 1987 1838 61.11% 24.08% 14.81%+1.15 -10.4 24
2003-12-20 @ Parma W 2-173.0 1838 1987 14.81% 24.08% 61.11%-1.15 +10.4 14
2003-12-20 Roma L 0-249.0 1783 2069 13.54% 22.67% 63.79%-1.30 -5.7 6
2003-12-20 @ Empoli W 2-049.0 2069 1783 63.79% 22.67% 13.54%+1.30 +5.7 36
2003-12-21 Ancona W 1-053.4 1899 1748 61.26% 24.01% 14.73%+1.16 +3.4 18
2003-12-21 @ Chievo Verona L 0-153.4 1748 1899 14.73% 24.01% 61.26%-1.16 -3.4 4
2003-12-21 Bologna D 0-066.9 1872 1829 48.16% 29.30% 22.55%+0.55 -1.2 15
2003-12-21 @ Siena D 0-066.9 1829 1872 22.55% 29.30% 48.16%-0.55 +1.2 11
2003-12-21 Brescia D 2-276.7 1836 1886 35.21% 31.19% 33.60%+0.02 -0.0 9
2003-12-21 @ Perugia D 2-276.7 1886 1836 33.60% 31.19% 35.21%-0.02 +0.1 13
2003-12-21 Inter Milan W 2-167.2 1996 2053 34.27% 31.19% 34.53%-0.01 +6.8 28
2003-12-21 @ Lazio Roma L 1-267.2 2053 1996 34.53% 31.19% 34.27%+0.01 -6.8 28
2003-12-21 Juventus D 1-173.8 1788 2082 13.11% 22.16% 64.72%-1.35 +2.2 9
2003-12-21 @ Lecce D 1-173.8 2082 1788 64.72% 22.16% 13.11%+1.35 -2.2 30
2003-12-21 Modena D 1-171.2 1862 1860 42.51% 30.54% 26.95%+0.32 -0.6 21
2003-12-21 @ Sampdoria D 1-171.2 1860 1862 26.95% 30.54% 42.51%-0.32 +0.6 16
2003-12-21 Udinese L 1-272.7 2057 1929 58.65% 25.29% 16.06%+1.03 -10.1 30
2003-12-21 @ AC Milan W 2-172.7 1929 2057 16.06% 25.29% 58.65%-1.03 +10.1 24
2004-01-06 AC Milan L 1-270.3 2075 2047 46.12% 29.82% 24.06%+0.47 -8.4 36
2004-01-06 @ Roma W 2-170.3 2047 2075 24.06% 29.82% 46.12%-0.47 +8.4 33
2004-01-06 Chievo Verona L 0-356.5 1861 1902 36.61% 31.14% 32.25%+0.08 -20.7 16
2004-01-06 @ Modena W 3-056.5 1902 1861 32.25% 31.14% 36.61%-0.08 +20.7 21
2004-01-06 Empoli W 2-162.5 1830 1778 49.39% 28.94% 21.67%+0.61 +4.8 14
2004-01-06 @ Bologna L 1-262.5 1778 1830 21.67% 28.94% 49.39%-0.61 -4.7 6
2004-01-06 Lazio Roma W 2-170.7 1849 2002 22.75% 29.37% 47.88%-0.56 +8.7 17
2004-01-06 @ Reggina L 1-270.7 2002 1849 47.88% 29.37% 22.75%+0.56 -8.7 28
2004-01-06 Lecce W 3-152.2 2046 1790 72.42% 17.68% 9.90%+1.75 +3.3 31
2004-01-06 @ Inter Milan L 1-352.2 1790 2046 9.90% 17.68% 72.42%-1.75 -3.3 9
2004-01-06 Parma L 0-250.8 1745 1977 16.58% 25.75% 57.67%-1.00 -7.3 4
2004-01-06 @ Ancona W 2-050.8 1977 1745 57.67% 25.75% 16.58%+1.00 +7.3 27
2004-01-06 Perugia W 1-050.5 2080 1836 71.26% 18.38% 10.36%+1.68 +2.2 33
2004-01-06 @ Juventus L 0-150.5 1836 2080 10.36% 18.38% 71.26%-1.68 -2.2 9
2004-01-06 Sampdoria L 0-166.0 1939 1861 52.65% 27.83% 19.51%+0.75 -9.9 24
2004-01-06 @ Udinese W 1-066.0 1861 1939 19.51% 27.83% 52.65%-0.75 +9.9 24
2004-01-06 Siena W 4-264.4 1886 1871 44.41% 30.20% 25.39%+0.39 +8.4 16
2004-01-06 @ Brescia L 2-464.4 1871 1886 25.39% 30.20% 44.41%-0.39 -8.4 15
2004-01-10 Inter Milan W 1-062.0 1984 2049 33.16% 31.18% 35.66%-0.06 +7.4 30
2004-01-10 @ Parma L 0-162.0 2049 1984 35.66% 31.18% 33.16%+0.06 -7.4 31
2004-01-10 Udinese D 0-066.5 1923 1929 41.42% 30.71% 27.88%+0.27 -0.6 22
2004-01-10 @ Chievo Verona D 0-066.5 1929 1923 27.88% 30.71% 41.42%-0.27 +0.6 25
2004-01-11 Ancona W 2-053.6 1773 1738 47.13% 29.57% 23.29%+0.51 +10.1 9
2004-01-11 @ Empoli L 0-253.6 1738 1773 23.29% 29.57% 47.13%-0.51 -10.1 4
2004-01-11 Bologna L 1-267.4 1787 1835 35.53% 31.18% 33.29%+0.04 -7.0 9
2004-01-11 @ Lecce W 2-167.4 1835 1787 33.29% 31.18% 35.53%-0.04 +7.0 17
2004-01-11 Brescia L 0-166.5 1994 1895 55.19% 26.84% 17.97%+0.87 -10.2 28
2004-01-11 @ Lazio Roma W 1-066.5 1895 1994 17.97% 26.84% 55.19%-0.87 +10.3 19
2004-01-11 Juventus L 1-261.0 1871 2082 18.01% 26.86% 55.12%-0.88 -4.0 24
2004-01-11 @ Sampdoria W 2-161.0 2082 1871 55.12% 26.86% 18.01%+0.88 +4.0 36
2004-01-11 Modena W 4-052.5 1863 1840 45.41% 29.99% 24.60%+0.44 +20.1 18
2004-01-11 @ Siena L 0-452.5 1840 1863 24.60% 29.99% 45.41%-0.44 -20.1 16
2004-01-11 Reggina W 3-154.0 2055 1857 66.51% 21.16% 12.33%+1.42 +4.4 36
2004-01-11 @ AC Milan L 1-354.0 1857 2055 12.33% 21.16% 66.51%-1.42 -4.4 17
2004-01-11 Roma L 0-154.6 1833 2066 16.53% 25.71% 57.76%-1.00 -3.8 9
2004-01-11 @ Perugia W 1-054.6 2066 1833 57.76% 25.71% 16.53%+1.00 +3.8 39
2004-01-17 Lazio Roma D 1-171.7 1820 1984 21.87% 29.02% 49.12%-0.61 +1.1 17
2004-01-17 @ Modena D 1-171.7 1984 1820 49.12% 29.02% 21.87%+0.61 -1.1 29
2004-01-17 Parma D 1-171.1 1930 1992 33.64% 31.19% 35.17%-0.04 +0.0 26
2004-01-17 @ Udinese D 1-171.1 1992 1930 35.17% 31.19% 33.64%+0.04 -0.0 31
2004-01-18 AC Milan L 0-157.5 1905 2060 22.64% 29.33% 48.02%-0.56 -5.2 19
2004-01-18 @ Brescia W 1-057.5 2060 1905 48.02% 29.33% 22.64%+0.56 +5.2 39
2004-01-18 Chievo Verona W 3-164.5 1842 1922 31.13% 31.08% 37.79%-0.14 +12.6 20
2004-01-18 @ Bologna L 1-364.5 1922 1842 37.79% 31.08% 31.13%+0.14 -12.6 22
2004-01-18 Empoli L 0-169.0 2042 1783 72.70% 17.50% 9.79%+1.77 -12.4 31
2004-01-18 @ Inter Milan W 1-069.0 1783 2042 9.79% 17.50% 72.70%-1.77 +12.4 12
2004-01-18 Lecce L 1-367.8 1853 1780 52.01% 28.07% 19.92%+0.72 -16.0 17
2004-01-18 @ Reggina W 3-167.8 1780 1853 19.92% 28.07% 52.01%-0.72 +16.0 12
2004-01-18 Perugia D 0-066.2 1727 1830 28.31% 30.78% 40.91%-0.27 +0.5 5
2004-01-18 @ Ancona D 0-066.2 1830 1727 40.91% 30.78% 28.31%+0.27 -0.5 10
2004-01-18 Sampdoria W 3-153.8 2070 1867 67.08% 20.84% 12.09%+1.45 +4.3 42
2004-01-18 @ Roma L 1-353.8 1867 2070 12.09% 20.84% 67.08%-1.45 -4.3 24
2004-01-18 Siena W 4-257.6 2086 1883 67.03% 20.87% 12.11%+1.45 +3.9 39
2004-01-18 @ Juventus L 2-457.6 1883 2086 12.11% 20.87% 67.03%-1.45 -3.9 18
2004-01-24 Perugia W 2-162.7 1879 1829 49.05% 29.04% 21.91%+0.59 +4.8 21
2004-01-24 @ Siena L 1-262.7 1829 1879 21.91% 29.04% 49.05%-0.59 -4.8 10
2004-01-24 Reggina W 2-054.3 1863 1837 45.82% 29.89% 24.28%+0.45 +10.5 27
2004-01-24 @ Sampdoria L 0-254.3 1837 1863 24.28% 29.89% 45.82%-0.45 -10.5 17
2004-01-25 Ancona W 5-043.1 2065 1728 79.64% 13.20% 7.16%+2.21 +6.0 42
2004-01-25 @ AC Milan L 0-543.1 1728 2065 7.16% 13.20% 79.64%-2.21 -6.0 5
2004-01-25 Bologna D 0-068.3 1992 1855 59.70% 24.79% 15.51%+1.08 -2.1 32
2004-01-25 @ Parma D 0-068.3 1855 1992 15.51% 24.79% 59.70%-1.08 +2.1 21
2004-01-25 Brescia W 3-160.8 1909 1900 43.68% 30.34% 25.98%+0.36 +9.6 25
2004-01-25 @ Chievo Verona L 1-360.8 1900 1909 25.98% 30.34% 43.68%-0.36 -9.6 19
2004-01-25 Inter Milan D 1-172.3 1821 2030 18.22% 27.01% 54.76%-0.86 +1.5 18
2004-01-25 @ Modena D 1-172.3 2030 1821 54.76% 27.01% 18.22%+0.86 -1.5 32
2004-01-25 Juventus D 3-383.3 1796 2090 13.11% 22.16% 64.74%-1.35 +1.4 13
2004-01-25 @ Empoli D 3-383.3 2090 1796 64.74% 22.16% 13.11%+1.35 -1.4 40
2004-01-25 Lazio Roma L 0-156.2 1796 1982 19.86% 28.03% 52.11%-0.74 -4.6 12
2004-01-25 @ Lecce W 1-056.2 1982 1796 52.11% 28.03% 19.86%+0.74 +4.6 32
2004-01-25 Udinese D 1-173.1 2075 1930 60.57% 24.36% 15.08%+1.12 -1.9 43
2004-01-25 @ Roma D 1-173.1 1930 2075 15.08% 24.36% 60.57%-1.12 +2.0 27
2004-01-28 Siena W 2-157.9 2071 1884 65.35% 21.82% 12.84%+1.36 +2.7 45
2004-01-28 @ AC Milan L 1-257.9 1884 2071 12.84% 21.82% 65.35%-1.36 -2.7 21
2004-01-31 Empoli W 2-054.1 1827 1797 46.37% 29.76% 23.87%+0.48 +10.3 20
2004-01-31 @ Reggina L 0-254.1 1797 1827 23.87% 29.76% 46.37%-0.48 -10.3 13
2004-01-31 Roma W 1-065.9 1890 2073 20.21% 28.23% 51.56%-0.72 +9.7 22
2004-01-31 @ Brescia L 0-165.9 2073 1890 51.56% 28.23% 20.21%+0.72 -9.7 43
2004-02-01 AC Milan L 0-251.4 1857 2074 17.60% 26.56% 55.84%-0.91 -7.7 21
2004-02-01 @ Bologna W 2-051.4 2074 1857 55.84% 26.56% 17.60%+0.91 +7.7 48
2004-02-01 Chievo Verona W 1-052.9 2088 1919 63.38% 22.90% 13.73%+1.26 +3.1 43
2004-02-01 @ Juventus L 0-152.9 1919 2088 13.73% 22.90% 63.38%-1.26 -3.1 25
2004-02-01 Lecce L 0-256.9 1722 1791 32.60% 31.16% 36.24%-0.08 -13.1 5
2004-02-01 @ Ancona W 2-056.9 1791 1722 36.24% 31.16% 32.60%+0.08 +13.1 15
2004-02-01 Modena W 1-054.9 1932 1823 56.41% 26.31% 17.27%+0.92 +4.0 30
2004-02-01 @ Udinese L 0-154.9 1823 1932 17.27% 26.31% 56.41%-0.92 -4.0 18
2004-02-01 Parma D 2-277.5 1824 1990 21.68% 28.94% 49.38%-0.62 +0.8 11
2004-02-01 @ Perugia D 2-277.5 1990 1824 49.38% 28.94% 21.68%+0.62 -0.8 33
2004-02-01 Sampdoria D 1-172.6 1987 1873 57.01% 26.05% 16.94%+0.95 -1.7 33
2004-02-01 @ Lazio Roma D 1-172.6 1873 1987 16.94% 26.05% 57.01%-0.95 +1.7 28
2004-02-01 Siena W 4-048.0 2028 1881 60.84% 24.22% 14.94%+1.14 +12.3 35
2004-02-01 @ Inter Milan L 0-448.0 1881 2028 14.94% 24.22% 60.84%-1.14 -12.2 21
2004-02-07 Bologna L 1-368.2 1936 1849 53.72% 27.43% 18.85%+0.80 -16.4 30
2004-02-07 @ Udinese W 3-168.2 1849 1936 18.85% 27.43% 53.72%-0.80 +16.4 24
2004-02-07 Lecce L 2-377.3 1916 1804 56.73% 26.17% 17.09%+0.94 -9.4 25
2004-02-07 @ Chievo Verona W 3-277.3 1804 1916 17.09% 26.17% 56.73%-0.94 +9.4 18
2004-02-08 Ancona W 2-160.2 1819 1709 56.54% 26.26% 17.20%+0.93 +3.8 21
2004-02-08 @ Modena L 1-260.2 1709 1819 17.20% 26.26% 56.54%-0.93 -3.8 5
2004-02-08 Brescia D 0-066.4 1837 1900 33.43% 31.18% 35.39%-0.05 +0.1 21
2004-02-08 @ Reggina D 0-066.4 1900 1837 35.39% 31.18% 33.43%+0.05 -0.1 23
2004-02-08 Inter Milan D 2-277.5 1875 2040 21.66% 28.93% 49.42%-0.62 +0.8 29
2004-02-08 @ Sampdoria D 2-277.5 2040 1875 49.42% 28.93% 21.66%+0.62 -0.8 36
2004-02-08 Juventus W 4-054.7 2063 2091 38.36% 31.04% 30.60%+0.15 +23.8 46
2004-02-08 @ Roma L 0-454.7 2091 2063 30.60% 31.04% 38.36%-0.15 -23.8 43
2004-02-08 Lazio Roma L 0-358.2 1989 1985 42.81% 30.49% 26.69%+0.33 -23.2 33
2004-02-08 @ Parma W 3-058.2 1985 1989 26.69% 30.49% 42.81%-0.33 +23.2 36
2004-02-08 Perugia W 2-155.8 2082 1825 72.47% 17.65% 9.89%+1.75 +1.9 51
2004-02-08 @ AC Milan L 1-255.8 1825 2082 9.89% 17.65% 72.47%-1.75 -1.9 11
2004-02-08 Siena W 1-062.5 1787 1869 30.81% 31.06% 38.13%-0.15 +7.8 16
2004-02-08 @ Empoli L 0-162.5 1869 1787 38.13% 31.06% 30.81%+0.15 -7.8 21
2004-02-14 Chievo Verona L 0-256.6 1823 1907 30.68% 31.05% 38.28%-0.16 -12.6 11
2004-02-14 @ Perugia W 2-056.6 1907 1823 38.28% 31.05% 30.68%+0.16 +12.6 28
2004-02-14 Empoli W 3-045.8 2009 1794 68.22% 20.18% 11.60%+1.51 +6.9 39
2004-02-14 @ Lazio Roma L 0-345.8 1794 2009 11.60% 20.18% 68.22%-1.51 -6.9 16
2004-02-15 AC Milan D 1-173.3 1814 2083 14.36% 23.61% 62.03%-1.21 +2.0 19
2004-02-15 @ Lecce D 1-173.3 2083 1814 62.03% 23.61% 14.36%+1.21 -2.0 52
2004-02-15 Modena D 1-171.5 1866 1823 48.10% 29.31% 22.59%+0.55 -1.0 25
2004-02-15 @ Bologna D 1-171.5 1823 1866 22.59% 29.31% 48.10%-0.55 +1.0 22
2004-02-15 Parma L 1-265.1 1861 1966 28.05% 30.74% 41.21%-0.28 -5.9 21
2004-02-15 @ Siena W 2-165.1 1966 1861 41.21% 30.74% 28.05%+0.28 +5.9 36
2004-02-15 Reggina W 1-050.9 2068 1837 69.92% 19.18% 10.90%+1.61 +2.3 46
2004-02-15 @ Juventus L 0-150.9 1837 2068 10.90% 19.18% 69.92%-1.61 -2.3 21
2004-02-15 Roma D 0-070.7 1705 2087 9.42% 16.92% 73.66%-1.84 +3.1 6
2004-02-15 @ Ancona D 0-070.7 2087 1705 73.66% 16.92% 9.42%+1.84 -3.1 47
2004-02-15 Sampdoria D 1-171.4 1900 1876 45.66% 29.93% 24.41%+0.45 -0.9 24
2004-02-15 @ Brescia D 1-171.4 1876 1900 24.41% 29.93% 45.66%-0.45 +0.9 30
2004-02-15 Udinese L 1-272.5 2039 1920 57.69% 25.74% 16.57%+0.98 -10.0 36
2004-02-15 @ Inter Milan W 2-172.5 1920 2039 16.57% 25.74% 57.69%-0.98 +10.0 33
2004-02-21 Inter Milan W 3-267.8 2081 2029 49.30% 28.96% 21.74%+0.60 +4.5 55
2004-02-21 @ AC Milan L 2-367.8 2029 2081 21.74% 28.96% 49.30%-0.60 -4.5 36
2004-02-21 Parma L 1-265.5 1876 1971 29.20% 30.90% 39.91%-0.23 -6.1 30
2004-02-21 @ Sampdoria W 2-165.5 1971 1876 39.91% 30.90% 29.20%+0.23 +6.0 39
2004-02-22 Ancona W 3-045.4 1930 1708 68.98% 19.73% 11.29%+1.56 +6.6 36
2004-02-22 @ Udinese L 0-345.4 1708 1930 11.29% 19.73% 68.98%-1.56 -6.7 6
2004-02-22 Empoli D 1-171.4 1824 1787 47.25% 29.54% 23.21%+0.51 -1.0 23
2004-02-22 @ Modena D 1-171.4 1787 1824 23.21% 29.54% 47.25%-0.51 +1.0 17
2004-02-22 Juventus L 0-155.6 1864 2070 18.41% 27.14% 54.45%-0.85 -4.3 25
2004-02-22 @ Bologna W 1-055.6 2070 1864 54.45% 27.14% 18.41%+0.85 +4.3 49
2004-02-22 Lazio Roma D 0-066.5 1919 2015 29.04% 30.88% 40.08%-0.23 +0.5 29
2004-02-22 @ Chievo Verona D 0-066.5 2015 1919 40.08% 30.88% 29.04%+0.23 -0.5 40
2004-02-22 Lecce L 1-271.7 1899 1816 53.28% 27.60% 19.12%+0.78 -9.4 24
2004-02-22 @ Brescia W 2-171.7 1816 1899 19.12% 27.60% 53.28%-0.78 +9.4 22
2004-02-22 Perugia L 1-270.0 1835 1811 45.61% 29.94% 24.45%+0.44 -8.4 21
2004-02-22 @ Reggina W 2-170.0 1811 1835 24.45% 29.94% 45.61%-0.44 +8.4 14
2004-02-22 Siena W 6-047.1 2084 1855 69.67% 19.33% 11.00%+1.59 +12.3 50
2004-02-22 @ Roma L 0-647.1 1855 2084 11.00% 19.33% 69.67%-1.59 -12.3 21
2004-02-28 Reggina D 0-066.6 1843 1826 44.64% 30.15% 25.21%+0.40 -0.9 22
2004-02-28 @ Siena D 0-066.6 1826 1843 25.21% 30.15% 44.64%-0.40 +0.9 22
2004-02-28 Udinese W 2-061.1 1788 1936 23.31% 29.58% 47.12%-0.52 +17.1 20
2004-02-28 @ Empoli L 0-261.1 1936 1788 47.12% 29.58% 23.31%+0.52 -17.1 36
2004-02-29 AC Milan L 0-161.0 2015 2086 32.34% 31.15% 36.51%-0.09 -6.9 40
2004-02-29 @ Lazio Roma W 1-061.0 2086 2015 36.51% 31.15% 32.34%+0.09 +6.9 58
2004-02-29 Ancona W 3-041.5 2074 1701 82.38% 11.47% 6.15%+2.41 +3.1 52
2004-02-29 @ Juventus L 0-341.5 1701 2074 6.15% 11.47% 82.38%-2.41 -3.1 6
2004-02-29 Bologna W 4-266.7 1819 1860 36.57% 31.15% 32.28%+0.08 +10.1 17
2004-02-29 @ Perugia L 2-466.7 1860 1819 32.28% 31.15% 36.57%-0.08 -10.1 25
2004-02-29 Brescia L 1-369.2 2025 1890 59.51% 24.88% 15.61%+1.07 -17.7 36
2004-02-29 @ Inter Milan W 3-169.2 1890 2025 15.61% 24.88% 59.51%-1.07 +17.7 27
2004-02-29 Chievo Verona W 1-061.3 1870 1920 35.41% 31.18% 33.40%+0.03 +7.1 33
2004-02-29 @ Sampdoria L 0-161.3 1920 1870 33.40% 31.18% 35.41%-0.03 -7.1 29
2004-02-29 Modena W 1-059.0 1825 1823 42.67% 30.52% 26.82%+0.32 +6.0 25
2004-02-29 @ Lecce L 0-159.0 1823 1825 26.82% 30.52% 42.67%-0.32 -6.0 23
2004-02-29 Roma L 1-458.3 1977 2096 26.41% 30.43% 43.15%-0.36 -13.7 39
2004-02-29 @ Parma W 4-158.3 2096 1977 43.15% 30.43% 26.41%+0.36 +13.7 53
2004-03-06 Juventus L 2-367.6 1907 2077 21.26% 28.75% 49.99%-0.65 -4.4 27
2004-03-06 @ Brescia W 3-267.6 2077 1907 49.99% 28.75% 21.26%+0.65 +4.4 55
2004-03-06 Parma D 2-277.2 1817 1964 23.40% 29.61% 46.99%-0.52 +0.7 24
2004-03-06 @ Modena D 2-277.2 1964 1817 46.99% 29.61% 23.40%+0.52 -0.7 40
2004-03-07 Empoli D 0-067.8 1913 1806 56.17% 26.42% 17.41%+0.91 -1.8 30
2004-03-07 @ Chievo Verona D 0-067.8 1806 1913 17.41% 26.42% 56.17%-0.91 +1.8 21
2004-03-07 Inter Milan W 4-154.6 2110 2007 55.61% 26.66% 17.73%+0.89 +9.6 56
2004-03-07 @ Roma L 1-454.6 2007 2110 17.73% 26.66% 55.61%-0.89 -9.6 36
2004-03-07 Perugia D 1-172.2 1919 1829 54.11% 27.28% 18.62%+0.82 -1.5 37
2004-03-07 @ Udinese D 1-172.2 1829 1919 18.62% 27.28% 54.11%-0.82 +1.5 18
2004-03-07 Reggina D 1-171.0 1698 1827 25.28% 30.17% 44.55%-0.41 +0.8 7
2004-03-07 @ Ancona D 1-171.0 1827 1698 44.55% 30.17% 25.28%+0.41 -0.8 23
2004-03-07 Sampdoria W 3-153.4 2093 1877 68.34% 20.11% 11.55%+1.52 +4.1 61
2004-03-07 @ AC Milan L 1-353.4 1877 2093 11.55% 20.11% 68.34%-1.52 -4.1 33
2004-03-07 Siena D 0-066.4 1831 1842 40.82% 30.79% 28.39%+0.25 -0.5 26
2004-03-07 @ Lecce D 0-066.4 1842 1831 28.39% 30.79% 40.82%-0.25 +0.5 23
2004-03-13 Bologna W 3-268.8 1873 1850 45.52% 29.96% 24.52%+0.44 +5.0 36
2004-03-13 @ Sampdoria L 2-368.8 1850 1873 24.52% 29.96% 45.52%-0.44 -5.0 25
2004-03-13 Lecce D 0-066.3 1807 1831 39.13% 30.97% 29.90%+0.18 -0.4 22
2004-03-13 @ Empoli D 0-066.3 1831 1807 29.90% 30.97% 39.13%-0.18 +0.4 27
2004-03-14 AC Milan L 1-365.3 2082 2097 40.25% 30.86% 28.89%+0.22 -13.2 55
2004-03-14 @ Juventus W 3-165.3 2097 2082 28.89% 30.86% 40.25%-0.22 +13.2 64
2004-03-14 Ancona W 3-264.1 1843 1699 60.46% 24.41% 15.13%+1.12 +3.1 26
2004-03-14 @ Siena L 2-364.1 1699 1843 15.13% 24.41% 60.46%-1.12 -3.1 7
2004-03-14 Brescia D 2-277.6 1963 1903 50.34% 28.64% 21.02%+0.65 -0.9 41
2004-03-14 @ Parma D 2-277.6 1903 1963 21.02% 28.64% 50.34%-0.65 +0.9 28
2004-03-14 Chievo Verona D 0-067.5 1998 1911 53.71% 27.43% 18.86%+0.80 -1.6 37
2004-03-14 @ Inter Milan D 0-067.5 1911 1998 18.86% 27.43% 53.71%-0.80 +1.6 31
2004-03-14 Modena D 1-171.2 1831 1817 44.14% 30.25% 25.61%+0.38 -0.7 19
2004-03-14 @ Perugia D 1-171.2 1817 1831 25.61% 30.25% 44.14%-0.38 +0.7 25
2004-03-14 Roma D 0-069.1 1826 2119 13.18% 22.24% 64.59%-1.34 +2.5 24
2004-03-14 @ Reggina D 0-069.1 2119 1826 64.59% 22.24% 13.18%+1.34 -2.5 57
2004-03-14 Udinese D 2-278.0 2008 1918 54.13% 27.27% 18.60%+0.82 -1.1 41
2004-03-14 @ Lazio Roma D 2-278.0 1918 2008 18.60% 27.27% 54.13%-0.82 +1.1 38
2004-03-20 Juventus D 0-066.9 1919 2069 23.13% 29.51% 47.36%-0.53 +1.1 39
2004-03-20 @ Udinese D 0-066.9 2069 1919 47.36% 29.51% 23.13%+0.53 -1.1 56
2004-03-20 Parma W 3-155.6 2110 1962 60.98% 24.15% 14.87%+1.14 +5.6 67
2004-03-20 @ AC Milan L 1-355.6 1962 2110 14.87% 24.15% 60.98%-1.14 -5.6 41
2004-03-21 Brescia W 3-056.0 1845 1904 34.05% 31.19% 34.76%-0.02 +19.9 28
2004-03-21 @ Bologna L 0-356.0 1904 1845 34.76% 31.19% 34.05%+0.02 -19.9 28
2004-03-21 Inter Milan L 0-248.5 1696 1996 12.83% 21.81% 65.36%-1.38 -5.4 7
2004-03-21 @ Ancona W 2-048.5 1996 1696 65.36% 21.81% 12.83%+1.38 +5.4 40
2004-03-21 Perugia L 1-269.3 1831 1830 42.51% 30.54% 26.95%+0.32 -7.9 27
2004-03-21 @ Lecce W 2-169.3 1830 1831 26.95% 30.54% 42.51%-0.32 +7.9 22
2004-03-21 Reggina L 1-268.9 1818 1829 40.89% 30.78% 28.33%+0.25 -7.7 25
2004-03-21 @ Modena W 2-168.9 1829 1818 28.33% 30.78% 40.89%-0.25 +7.7 27
2004-03-21 Sampdoria D 1-171.0 1807 1878 32.29% 31.15% 36.57%-0.09 +0.2 23
2004-03-21 @ Empoli D 1-171.0 1878 1807 36.57% 31.15% 32.29%+0.09 -0.2 37
2004-03-21 Siena D 1-171.9 1912 1846 51.17% 28.36% 20.47%+0.68 -1.3 32
2004-03-21 @ Chievo Verona D 1-171.9 1846 1912 20.47% 28.36% 51.17%-0.68 +1.3 27
2004-03-25 Lazio Roma W 2-170.3 1865 2007 23.91% 29.77% 46.32%-0.49 +8.5 31
2004-03-25 @ Bologna L 1-270.3 2007 1865 46.32% 29.77% 23.91%+0.49 -8.5 41
2004-03-28 Ancona W 5-253.8 1884 1691 66.00% 21.45% 12.55%+1.40 +5.5 31
2004-03-28 @ Brescia L 2-553.8 1691 1884 12.55% 21.45% 66.00%-1.40 -5.6 7
2004-03-28 Bologna L 1-274.4 2117 1873 71.17% 18.43% 10.40%+1.68 -11.6 57
2004-03-28 @ Roma W 2-174.4 1873 2117 10.40% 18.43% 71.17%-1.68 +11.6 34
2004-03-28 Chievo Verona D 2-280.0 2116 1911 67.21% 20.76% 12.03%+1.46 -1.8 68
2004-03-28 @ AC Milan D 2-280.0 1911 2116 12.03% 20.76% 67.21%-1.46 +1.8 33
2004-03-28 Empoli W 4-047.8 1957 1807 61.14% 24.07% 14.79%+1.15 +12.1 44
2004-03-28 @ Parma L 0-447.8 1807 1957 14.79% 24.07% 61.14%-1.15 -12.1 23
2004-03-28 Inter Milan L 0-253.4 1837 2001 21.71% 28.95% 49.33%-0.62 -9.5 27
2004-03-28 @ Reggina W 2-053.4 2001 1837 49.33% 28.95% 21.71%+0.62 +9.5 43
2004-03-28 Lazio Roma L 1-262.9 1838 1998 22.09% 29.11% 48.79%-0.59 -4.8 22
2004-03-28 @ Perugia W 2-162.9 1998 1838 48.79% 29.11% 22.09%+0.59 +4.8 44
2004-03-28 Lecce D 2-277.4 1878 1823 49.71% 28.84% 21.45%+0.62 -0.9 38
2004-03-28 @ Sampdoria D 2-277.4 1823 1878 21.45% 28.84% 49.71%-0.62 +0.9 28
2004-03-28 Modena W 3-152.2 2068 1811 72.52% 17.62% 9.86%+1.76 +3.3 59
2004-03-28 @ Juventus L 1-352.2 1811 2068 9.86% 17.62% 72.52%-1.76 -3.3 25
2004-03-28 Udinese W 1-062.2 1847 1920 32.09% 31.14% 36.78%-0.10 +7.6 30
2004-03-28 @ Siena L 0-162.2 1920 1847 36.78% 31.14% 32.09%+0.10 -7.6 39
2004-04-04 AC Milan D 1-174.0 1807 2114 12.51% 21.40% 66.09%-1.42 +2.3 26
2004-04-04 @ Modena D 1-174.0 2114 1807 66.09% 21.40% 12.51%+1.42 -2.3 69
2004-04-04 Brescia W 4-371.5 1912 1889 45.46% 29.97% 24.56%+0.44 +4.9 42
2004-04-04 @ Udinese L 3-471.5 1889 1912 24.56% 29.97% 45.46%-0.44 -4.9 31
2004-04-04 Juventus W 3-272.4 2011 2071 33.88% 31.19% 34.93%-0.03 +6.5 46
2004-04-04 @ Inter Milan L 2-372.4 2071 2011 34.93% 31.19% 33.88%+0.03 -6.5 59
2004-04-04 Parma L 0-257.9 1913 1969 34.48% 31.19% 34.33%+0.00 -13.6 33
2004-04-04 @ Chievo Verona W 2-057.9 1969 1913 34.33% 31.19% 34.48%+0.00 +13.6 47
2004-04-04 Perugia W 1-060.6 1795 1833 37.04% 31.12% 31.83%+0.10 +6.8 26
2004-04-04 @ Empoli L 0-160.6 1833 1795 31.83% 31.12% 37.04%-0.10 -6.8 22
2004-04-04 Reggina D 2-277.5 1885 1827 50.07% 28.72% 21.20%+0.64 -0.9 35
2004-04-04 @ Bologna D 2-277.5 1827 1885 21.20% 28.72% 50.07%-0.64 +0.9 28
2004-04-04 Roma L 0-347.3 1824 2105 13.76% 22.93% 63.31%-1.27 -8.5 28
2004-04-04 @ Lecce W 3-047.3 2105 1824 63.31% 22.93% 13.76%+1.27 +8.5 60
2004-04-04 Sampdoria L 0-155.8 1685 1877 19.42% 27.78% 52.80%-0.77 -4.5 7
2004-04-04 @ Ancona W 1-055.8 1877 1685 52.80% 27.78% 19.42%+0.77 +4.5 41
2004-04-04 Siena W 5-255.5 2003 1855 61.05% 24.11% 14.84%+1.15 +6.8 47
2004-04-04 @ Lazio Roma L 2-555.5 1855 2003 14.84% 24.11% 61.05%-1.15 -6.8 30
2004-04-10 Bologna W 3-276.7 1681 1884 18.56% 27.24% 54.21%-0.84 +9.1 10
2004-04-10 @ Ancona L 2-376.7 1884 1681 54.21% 27.24% 18.56%+0.84 -9.1 35
2004-04-10 Chievo Verona W 3-153.5 2114 1899 68.24% 20.16% 11.59%+1.52 +4.1 63
2004-04-10 @ Roma L 1-353.5 1899 2114 11.59% 20.16% 68.24%-1.52 -4.1 33
2004-04-10 Empoli W 1-048.7 2112 1802 77.36% 14.63% 8.01%+2.05 +1.6 72
2004-04-10 @ AC Milan L 0-148.7 1802 2112 8.01% 14.63% 77.36%-2.05 -1.6 26
2004-04-10 Lazio Roma W 1-057.1 2064 2010 49.59% 28.88% 21.54%+0.61 +5.0 62
2004-04-10 @ Juventus L 0-157.1 2010 2064 21.54% 28.88% 49.59%-0.61 -5.0 47
2004-04-10 Lecce W 3-155.0 1982 1815 63.12% 23.03% 13.85%+1.25 +5.1 50
2004-04-10 @ Parma L 1-355.0 1815 1982 13.85% 23.03% 63.12%-1.25 -5.1 28
2004-04-10 Modena D 0-067.3 1885 1809 52.24% 27.99% 19.78%+0.73 -1.5 32
2004-04-10 @ Brescia D 0-067.3 1809 1885 19.78% 27.99% 52.24%-0.73 +1.5 27
2004-04-10 Sampdoria D 0-066.4 1848 1882 37.59% 31.09% 31.32%+0.12 -0.3 31
2004-04-10 @ Siena D 0-066.4 1882 1848 31.32% 31.09% 37.59%-0.12 +0.3 42
2004-04-10 Udinese L 0-160.1 1828 1917 29.91% 30.98% 39.11%-0.19 -6.5 28
2004-04-10 @ Reggina W 1-060.1 1917 1828 39.11% 30.98% 29.91%+0.19 +6.5 45
2004-04-11 Inter Milan L 2-366.7 1826 2017 19.49% 27.82% 52.69%-0.77 -4.1 22
2004-04-11 @ Perugia W 3-266.7 2017 1826 52.69% 27.82% 19.49%+0.77 +4.1 49
2004-04-17 AC Milan L 1-259.1 1848 2113 14.59% 23.86% 61.55%-1.19 -3.1 31
2004-04-17 @ Siena W 2-159.1 2113 1848 61.55% 23.86% 14.59%+1.19 +3.1 75
2004-04-17 Udinese W 2-169.4 1810 1924 26.97% 30.55% 42.48%-0.33 +7.9 31
2004-04-17 @ Lecce L 1-269.4 1924 1810 42.48% 30.55% 26.97%+0.33 -7.9 45
2004-04-18 Ancona W 4-254.3 2005 1690 77.84% 14.33% 7.83%+2.08 +2.2 50
2004-04-18 @ Lazio Roma L 2-454.3 1690 2005 7.83% 14.33% 77.84%-2.08 -2.2 10
2004-04-18 Bologna W 4-259.5 2021 1875 60.79% 24.24% 14.96%+1.13 +5.0 52
2004-04-18 @ Inter Milan L 2-459.5 1875 2021 14.96% 24.24% 60.79%-1.13 -5.0 35
2004-04-18 Brescia D 1-171.0 1800 1883 30.76% 31.05% 38.18%-0.16 +0.3 27
2004-04-18 @ Empoli D 1-171.0 1883 1800 38.18% 31.05% 30.76%+0.16 -0.3 33
2004-04-18 Juventus D 2-276.9 1987 2069 30.88% 31.06% 38.06%-0.15 +0.2 51
2004-04-18 @ Parma D 2-276.9 2069 1987 38.06% 31.06% 30.88%+0.15 -0.2 63
2004-04-18 Perugia W 3-267.4 1882 1822 50.35% 28.64% 21.02%+0.65 +4.4 45
2004-04-18 @ Sampdoria L 2-367.4 1822 1882 21.02% 28.64% 50.35%-0.65 -4.4 22
2004-04-18 Reggina D 0-067.3 1895 1821 52.07% 28.05% 19.88%+0.72 -1.5 34
2004-04-18 @ Chievo Verona D 0-067.3 1821 1895 19.88% 28.05% 52.07%-0.72 +1.5 29
2004-04-18 Roma L 0-152.1 1811 2118 12.51% 21.40% 66.10%-1.42 -2.8 27
2004-04-18 @ Modena W 1-052.1 2118 1811 66.10% 21.40% 12.51%+1.42 +2.8 66
2004-04-21 Roma D 1-171.3 2007 2121 27.00% 30.55% 42.44%-0.33 +0.6 51
2004-04-21 @ Lazio Roma D 1-171.3 2121 2007 42.44% 30.55% 27.00%+0.33 -0.6 67
2004-04-25 AC Milan D 0-067.6 1916 2116 18.78% 27.39% 53.83%-0.82 +1.6 46
2004-04-25 @ Udinese D 0-067.6 2116 1916 53.83% 27.39% 18.78%+0.82 -1.6 76
2004-04-25 Chievo Verona L 0-251.6 1687 1894 18.36% 27.11% 54.53%-0.85 -8.1 10
2004-04-25 @ Ancona W 2-051.6 1894 1687 54.53% 27.11% 18.36%+0.85 +8.1 37
2004-04-25 Empoli W 3-042.8 2120 1801 78.17% 14.12% 7.70%+2.11 +4.1 70
2004-04-25 @ Roma L 0-342.8 1801 2120 7.70% 14.12% 78.17%-2.11 -4.1 27
2004-04-25 Lazio Roma D 0-066.7 2026 2008 44.89% 30.10% 25.01%+0.41 -0.9 53
2004-04-25 @ Inter Milan D 0-066.7 2008 2026 25.01% 30.10% 44.89%-0.41 +0.9 52
2004-04-25 Lecce L 3-482.1 2069 1818 71.93% 17.97% 10.10%+1.72 -10.8 63
2004-04-25 @ Juventus W 4-382.1 1818 2069 10.10% 17.97% 71.93%-1.72 +10.8 34
2004-04-25 Parma D 1-171.7 1823 1988 21.72% 28.96% 49.32%-0.62 +1.1 30
2004-04-25 @ Reggina D 1-171.7 1988 1823 49.32% 28.96% 21.72%+0.62 -1.1 52
2004-04-25 Perugia D 1-171.8 1883 1818 50.98% 28.42% 20.59%+0.68 -1.3 34
2004-04-25 @ Brescia D 1-171.8 1818 1883 20.59% 28.42% 50.98%-0.68 +1.2 23
2004-04-25 Sampdoria W 1-062.4 1808 1887 31.35% 31.10% 37.55%-0.13 +7.7 30
2004-04-25 @ Modena L 0-162.4 1887 1808 37.55% 31.10% 31.35%+0.13 -7.7 45
2004-04-25 Siena W 3-160.1 1870 1844 45.84% 29.89% 24.27%+0.45 +9.1 38
2004-04-25 @ Bologna L 1-360.1 1844 1870 24.27% 29.89% 45.84%-0.45 -9.1 31
2004-05-02 Ancona W 3-150.7 1987 1679 77.13% 14.77% 8.09%+2.04 +2.6 55
2004-05-02 @ Parma L 1-350.7 1679 1987 8.09% 14.77% 77.13%-2.04 -2.6 10
2004-05-02 Bologna W 2-058.8 1796 1879 30.78% 31.05% 38.17%-0.16 +14.7 30
2004-05-02 @ Empoli L 0-258.8 1879 1796 38.17% 31.05% 30.78%+0.16 -14.7 38
2004-05-02 Brescia L 0-162.0 1835 1882 35.86% 31.17% 32.97%+0.05 -7.4 31
2004-05-02 @ Siena W 1-062.0 1882 1835 32.97% 31.17% 35.86%-0.05 +7.4 37
2004-05-02 Inter Milan W 2-171.8 1829 2026 19.07% 27.57% 53.36%-0.80 +9.4 37
2004-05-02 @ Lecce L 1-271.8 2026 1829 53.36% 27.57% 19.07%+0.80 -9.4 53
2004-05-02 Juventus W 1-067.1 1819 2058 16.12% 25.35% 58.52%-1.04 +10.7 26
2004-05-02 @ Perugia L 0-167.1 2058 1819 58.52% 25.35% 16.12%+1.04 -10.7 63
2004-05-02 Modena W 2-052.0 1902 1816 53.58% 27.49% 18.94%+0.79 +8.3 40
2004-05-02 @ Chievo Verona L 0-252.0 1816 1902 18.94% 27.49% 53.58%-0.79 -8.3 30
2004-05-02 Reggina D 1-173.8 2009 1824 65.09% 21.96% 12.95%+1.35 -2.2 53
2004-05-02 @ Lazio Roma D 1-173.8 1824 2009 12.95% 21.96% 65.09%-1.35 +2.2 31
2004-05-02 Roma W 1-059.6 2115 2124 41.07% 30.76% 28.18%+0.26 +6.3 79
2004-05-02 @ AC Milan L 0-159.6 2124 2115 28.18% 30.76% 41.07%-0.26 -6.2 70
2004-05-02 Udinese L 1-364.3 1879 1917 36.94% 31.13% 31.94%+0.09 -12.4 45
2004-05-02 @ Sampdoria W 3-164.3 1917 1879 31.94% 31.13% 36.94%-0.09 +12.4 49
2004-05-09 AC Milan W 2-173.6 1826 2121 13.08% 22.12% 64.79%-1.35 +10.9 34
2004-05-09 @ Reggina L 1-273.6 2121 1826 64.79% 22.12% 13.08%+1.35 -10.9 79
2004-05-09 Chievo Verona D 1-171.4 1930 1910 45.05% 30.06% 24.88%+0.42 -0.8 50
2004-05-09 @ Udinese D 1-171.4 1910 1930 24.88% 30.06% 45.05%-0.42 +0.8 41
2004-05-09 Empoli W 2-169.6 1677 1811 24.67% 30.01% 45.32%-0.45 +8.3 13
2004-05-09 @ Ancona L 1-269.6 1811 1677 45.32% 30.01% 24.67%+0.45 -8.3 30
2004-05-09 Lazio Roma W 2-169.6 1889 2007 26.51% 30.45% 43.04%-0.35 +8.0 40
2004-05-09 @ Brescia L 1-269.6 2007 1889 43.04% 30.45% 26.51%+0.35 -8.0 53
2004-05-09 Lecce D 1-171.4 1864 1838 45.90% 29.87% 24.23%+0.46 -0.9 39
2004-05-09 @ Bologna D 1-171.4 1838 1864 24.23% 29.87% 45.90%-0.46 +0.9 38
2004-05-09 Parma W 1-058.1 2016 1989 46.03% 29.84% 24.13%+0.46 +5.5 56
2004-05-09 @ Inter Milan L 0-158.1 1989 2016 24.13% 29.84% 46.03%-0.46 -5.5 55
2004-05-09 Perugia L 1-371.3 2118 1830 75.44% 15.82% 8.73%+1.93 -20.8 70
2004-05-09 @ Roma W 3-171.3 1830 2118 8.73% 15.82% 75.44%-1.93 +20.7 29
2004-05-09 Sampdoria W 2-048.8 2048 1866 64.69% 22.18% 13.13%+1.33 +5.5 66
2004-05-09 @ Juventus L 0-248.8 1866 2048 13.13% 22.18% 64.69%-1.33 -5.5 45
2004-05-09 Siena L 1-364.9 1808 1828 39.52% 30.94% 29.54%+0.19 -13.0 30
2004-05-09 @ Modena W 3-164.9 1828 1808 29.54% 30.94% 39.52%-0.19 +13.0 34
2004-05-16 Ancona W 1-052.7 1850 1685 62.93% 23.13% 13.93%+1.24 +3.2 32
2004-05-16 @ Perugia L 0-152.7 1685 1850 13.93% 23.13% 62.93%-1.24 -3.1 13
2004-05-16 Bologna W 2-162.9 1911 1864 48.68% 29.15% 22.17%+0.57 +4.8 44
2004-05-16 @ Chievo Verona L 1-262.9 1864 1911 22.17% 29.15% 48.68%-0.57 -4.8 39
2004-05-16 Brescia W 4-257.3 2110 1897 68.10% 20.24% 11.65%+1.51 +3.7 82
2004-05-16 @ AC Milan L 2-457.3 1897 2110 11.65% 20.24% 68.10%-1.51 -3.7 40
2004-05-16 Inter Milan L 2-365.7 1803 2022 17.47% 26.46% 56.07%-0.92 -3.6 30
2004-05-16 @ Empoli W 3-265.7 2022 1803 56.07% 26.46% 17.47%+0.92 +3.6 59
2004-05-16 Juventus L 1-357.3 1841 2053 17.93% 26.80% 55.27%-0.88 -6.8 34
2004-05-16 @ Siena W 3-157.3 2053 1841 55.27% 26.80% 17.93%+0.88 +6.8 69
2004-05-16 Modena W 2-157.3 1999 1795 67.14% 20.80% 12.06%+1.46 +2.5 56
2004-05-16 @ Lazio Roma L 1-257.3 1795 1999 12.06% 20.80% 67.14%-1.46 -2.5 30
2004-05-16 Reggina W 2-164.6 1839 1837 42.65% 30.52% 26.83%+0.32 +5.7 41
2004-05-16 @ Lecce L 1-264.6 1837 1839 26.83% 30.52% 42.65%-0.32 -5.7 34
2004-05-16 Roma D 0-068.1 1861 2097 16.33% 25.54% 58.13%-1.02 +2.0 46
2004-05-16 @ Sampdoria D 0-068.1 2097 1861 58.13% 25.54% 16.33%+1.02 -2.0 71
2004-05-16 Udinese W 4-370.2 1984 1929 49.62% 28.86% 21.51%+0.62 +4.4 58
2004-05-16 @ Parma L 3-470.2 1929 1984 21.51% 28.86% 49.62%-0.62 -4.4 50

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2004-06-16 Fiorentina L 0-166.5 1854 1748 56.02% 26.49% 17.50%+0.90 -10.4 0-1
2004-06-16 @ Perugia W 1-066.5 1748 1854 17.50% 26.49% 56.02%-0.90 +10.4 1-0
2004-06-20 Perugia D 1-170.9 1758 1843 30.47% 31.03% 38.50%-0.17 +0.3 1-0-1
2004-06-20 @ Fiorentina D 1-170.9 1843 1758 38.50% 31.03% 30.47%+0.17 -0.3 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-05-09 8.73% Perugia 1830 3 @ Roma 2118 1
2 2004-01-18 9.79% Empoli 1783 1 @ Inter Milan 2042 0
3 2004-04-25 10.10% Lecce 1818 4 @ Juventus 2069 3
4 2004-03-28 10.40% Bologna 1873 2 @ Roma 2117 1
5 2004-05-09 13.08% @ Reggina 1826 2 AC Milan 2121 1
6 2003-12-20 14.81% Reggina 1838 2 @ Parma 1987 1
7 2004-02-29 15.61% Brescia 1890 3 @ Inter Milan 2025 1
8 2003-12-21 16.06% Udinese 1929 2 @ AC Milan 2057 1
9 2004-05-02 16.12% @ Perugia 1819 1 Juventus 2058 0
10 2004-02-15 16.57% Udinese 1920 2 @ Inter Milan 2039 1
11 2004-02-07 17.09% Lecce 1804 3 @ Chievo Verona 1916 2
12 2003-11-23 17.39% @ Empoli 1784 1 Parma 2004 0
13 2004-06-16 * 17.50% Fiorentina 1748 1 @ Perugia 1854 0
14 2004-01-11 17.97% Brescia 1895 1 @ Lazio Roma 1994 0
15 2004-04-10 18.56% @ Ancona 1681 3 Bologna 1884 2
16 2004-02-07 18.85% Bologna 1849 3 @ Udinese 1936 1
17 2004-05-02 19.07% @ Lecce 1829 2 Inter Milan 2026 1
18 2004-02-22 19.12% Lecce 1816 2 @ Brescia 1899 1
19 2004-01-06 19.51% Sampdoria 1861 1 @ Udinese 1939 0
20 2004-01-18 19.92% Lecce 1780 3 @ Reggina 1853 1
21 2004-01-31 20.21% @ Brescia 1890 1 Roma 2073 0
22 2003-11-29 20.25% Inter Milan 2026 3 @ Juventus 2096 1
23 2004-01-06 22.75% @ Reggina 1849 2 Lazio Roma 2002 1
24 2004-02-28 23.31% @ Empoli 1788 2 Udinese 1936 0
25 2003-11-29 23.35% @ Siena 1854 3 Lazio Roma 2001 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-11-29 24.87 @ Siena 3 1854 23.35% Lazio Roma 0 2001 47.07% 29.59%
2 2004-02-08 23.80 @ Roma 4 2063 38.36% Juventus 0 2091 30.60% 31.04%
3 2003-09-20 23.40 @ Siena 4 1834 39.13% Empoli 0 1857 29.90% 30.97%
4 2004-02-08 23.16 Lazio Roma 3 1985 26.69% @ Parma 0 1989 42.81% 30.49%
5 2003-10-05 22.05 Modena 3 1851 29.04% @ Empoli 0 1835 40.09% 30.88%
6 2003-09-14 21.29 @ Roma 5 1973 50.78% Brescia 0 1909 20.73% 28.49%
7 2004-05-09 20.75 Perugia 3 1830 8.73% @ Roma 1 2118 75.44% 15.82%
8 2004-01-06 20.67 Chievo Verona 3 1902 32.25% @ Modena 0 1861 36.61% 31.14%
9 2004-01-11 20.09 @ Siena 4 1863 45.41% Modena 0 1840 24.60% 29.99%
10 2004-03-21 19.93 @ Bologna 3 1845 34.05% Brescia 0 1904 34.76% 31.19%
11 2003-11-22 17.93 @ Inter Milan 6 2008 60.86% Reggina 0 1862 14.93% 24.21%
12 2004-02-29 17.72 Brescia 3 1890 15.61% @ Inter Milan 1 2025 59.51% 24.88%
13 2003-12-14 17.55 @ Juventus 4 2064 50.25% Parma 0 2005 21.09% 28.67%
14 2004-02-28 17.13 @ Empoli 2 1788 23.31% Udinese 0 1936 47.12% 29.58%
15 2003-11-23 16.93 Roma 4 2031 51.45% @ Bologna 0 1849 20.29% 28.27%
16 2003-10-05 16.59 Brescia 4 1881 34.71% @ Lecce 1 1823 34.10% 31.19%
17 2004-02-07 16.41 Bologna 3 1849 18.85% @ Udinese 1 1936 53.72% 27.43%
18 2003-10-05 16.28 Udinese 3 1905 43.17% @ Ancona 0 1787 26.40% 30.43%
19 2004-01-18 16.01 Lecce 3 1780 19.92% @ Reggina 1 1853 52.01% 28.07%
20 2003-11-29 15.89 Inter Milan 3 2026 20.25% @ Juventus 1 2096 51.51% 28.24%
21 2003-12-06 15.46 @ Lazio Roma 2 1976 28.17% Juventus 0 2080 41.08% 30.75%
22 2003-12-07 15.27 Roma 3 2051 45.69% @ Chievo Verona 0 1914 24.39% 29.92%
23 2004-05-02 14.66 @ Empoli 2 1796 30.78% Bologna 0 1879 38.17% 31.05%
24 2003-11-02 13.98 Inter Milan 2 1988 33.14% @ Chievo Verona 0 1941 35.68% 31.18%
25 2004-02-29 13.74 Roma 4 2096 43.15% @ Parma 1 1977 26.41% 30.43%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-01-25 83.3 @ Empoli 3 1796 13.11% Juventus 3 2090 64.74% 22.16%
2 2003-09-21 82.5 @ Brescia 4 1888 44.51% Reggina 4 1872 25.32% 30.18%
3 2004-04-25 82.1 Lecce 4 1818 10.10% @ Juventus 3 2069 71.93% 17.97%
4 2003-10-26 80.6 @ Perugia 3 1851 31.41% Udinese 3 1929 37.49% 31.10%
5 2003-12-13 80.6 @ Perugia 3 1836 38.80% Sampdoria 3 1861 30.20% 31.00%
6 2004-03-28 80.0 @ AC Milan 2 2116 67.21% Chievo Verona 2 1911 12.03% 20.76%
7 2004-03-14 78.0 @ Lazio Roma 2 2008 54.13% Udinese 2 1918 18.60% 27.27%
8 2003-09-21 77.7 @ Juventus 2 2062 51.27% Roma 2 1994 20.40% 28.33%
9 2004-03-14 77.6 @ Parma 2 1963 50.34% Brescia 2 1903 21.02% 28.64%
10 2003-09-28 77.5 @ Empoli 2 1834 21.75% Lazio Roma 2 1999 49.29% 28.97%
11 2004-02-01 77.5 @ Perugia 2 1824 21.68% Parma 2 1990 49.38% 28.94%
12 2004-02-08 77.5 @ Sampdoria 2 1875 21.66% Inter Milan 2 2040 49.42% 28.93%
13 2004-04-04 77.5 @ Bologna 2 1885 50.07% Reggina 2 1827 21.20% 28.72%
14 2004-03-28 77.4 @ Sampdoria 2 1878 49.71% Lecce 2 1823 21.45% 28.84%
15 2003-11-09 77.3 @ Perugia 2 1846 48.70% Lecce 2 1798 22.16% 29.14%
16 2004-02-07 77.3 Lecce 3 1804 17.09% @ Chievo Verona 2 1916 56.73% 26.17%
17 2003-08-30 77.2 @ Reggina 2 1873 47.11% Sampdoria 2 1837 23.31% 29.58%
18 2003-08-31 77.2 @ Perugia 2 1873 47.03% Siena 2 1839 23.38% 29.60%
19 2004-03-06 77.2 @ Modena 2 1817 23.40% Parma 2 1964 46.99% 29.61%
20 2003-08-31 77.0 @ Bologna 2 1866 27.08% Parma 2 1979 42.36% 30.57%
21 2003-10-19 77.0 @ Bologna 2 1861 43.78% Perugia 2 1851 25.90% 30.32%
22 2003-10-18 76.9 @ Brescia 2 1898 29.67% Inter Milan 2 1989 39.38% 30.95%
23 2004-04-18 76.9 @ Parma 2 1987 30.88% Juventus 2 2069 38.06% 31.06%
24 2003-12-21 76.7 @ Perugia 2 1836 35.21% Brescia 2 1886 33.60% 31.19%
25 2004-04-10 76.7 @ Ancona 3 1681 18.56% Bologna 2 1884 54.21% 27.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-02-29 41.5 @ Juventus 3 2074 82.38% Ancona 0 1701 6.15% 11.47%
2 2004-04-25 42.8 @ Roma 3 2120 78.17% Empoli 0 1801 7.70% 14.12%
3 2004-01-25 43.1 @ AC Milan 5 2065 79.64% Ancona 0 1728 7.16% 13.20%
4 2003-11-09 45.2 @ Inter Milan 3 2002 70.06% Ancona 0 1770 10.85% 19.10%
5 2004-02-22 45.4 @ Udinese 3 1930 68.98% Ancona 0 1708 11.29% 19.73%
6 2004-02-14 45.8 @ Lazio Roma 3 2009 68.22% Empoli 0 1794 11.60% 20.18%
7 2003-09-28 46.2 @ Roma 3 1995 66.86% Ancona 0 1794 12.18% 20.96%
8 2004-02-22 47.1 @ Roma 6 2084 69.67% Siena 0 1855 11.00% 19.33%
9 2004-04-04 47.3 Roma 3 2105 63.31% @ Lecce 0 1824 13.76% 22.93%
10 2003-09-28 47.4 @ AC Milan 3 1995 62.76% Lecce 0 1831 14.01% 23.22%
11 2004-03-28 47.8 @ Parma 4 1957 61.14% Empoli 0 1807 14.79% 24.07%
12 2004-02-01 48.0 @ Inter Milan 4 2028 60.84% Siena 0 1881 14.94% 24.22%
13 2004-03-21 48.5 Inter Milan 2 1996 65.36% @ Ancona 0 1696 12.83% 21.81%
14 2004-04-10 48.7 @ AC Milan 1 2112 77.36% Empoli 0 1802 8.01% 14.63%
15 2003-11-30 48.8 @ AC Milan 2 2048 64.45% Modena 0 1869 13.24% 22.32%
16 2004-05-09 48.8 @ Juventus 2 2048 64.69% Sampdoria 0 1866 13.13% 22.18%
17 2003-10-26 48.9 @ Juventus 2 2074 64.18% Brescia 0 1898 13.36% 22.46%
18 2003-12-20 49.0 Roma 2 2069 63.79% @ Empoli 0 1783 13.54% 22.67%
19 2003-09-14 49.4 @ Parma 3 1978 56.00% Perugia 0 1873 17.51% 26.49%
20 2003-10-26 49.5 @ Parma 3 1987 55.93% Modena 0 1882 17.55% 26.52%
21 2003-11-22 49.8 @ Inter Milan 6 2008 60.86% Reggina 0 1862 14.93% 24.21%
22 2003-11-02 50.0 @ Roma 2 2013 60.61% Reggina 0 1869 15.06% 24.34%
23 2003-08-31 50.1 @ Inter Milan 2 1994 60.29% Modena 0 1852 15.22% 24.50%
24 2004-01-06 50.5 @ Juventus 1 2080 71.26% Perugia 0 1836 10.36% 18.38%
25 2003-08-31 50.6 @ Juventus 5 2048 64.66% Empoli 1 1867 13.14% 22.20%