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2010 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Tobol

64 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Irtysh

24.60 points above expected

56 points · 31.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shakter Karagandy

0.88 points below expected

41 points · 41.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tobol 22 14 5 3 47 37 15 +22
2 Irtysh 22 12 7 3 43 30 16 +14
3 Aktobe 22 11 4 7 37 32 22 +10
4 Shakter Karagandy 22 11 4 7 37 28 19 +9
5 Lokomotiv Astana 22 11 3 8 36 33 21 +12
6 Atyrau 22 11 3 8 36 29 26 +3
7 Zhetysu 22 9 7 6 34 22 16 +6
8 Ordabasy 22 8 6 8 30 20 20 0
9 Kairat 22 4 8 10 20 11 22 -11
10 Taraz 22 4 6 12 18 21 33 -12
11 Akzhayik 22 3 5 14 14 19 43 -24
12 Okzhetpes 22 3 4 15 13 16 45 -29
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tobol 32 19 7 6 64 53 25 +28 — —
2 Aktobe 32 19 6 7 63 56 30 +26 — —
3 Irtysh 32 16 8 8 56 39 30 +9 — —
4 Lokomotiv Astana 32 14 8 10 50 41 28 +13 — —
5 Atyrau 32 13 5 14 44 36 44 -8 — —
6 Shakter Karagandy 32 11 8 13 41 32 30 +2 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zhetysu 32 13 10 9 49 36 26 +10 — —
2 Ordabasy 32 12 9 11 45 37 34 +3 — —
3 Taraz 32 9 10 13 37 36 40 -4 — —
4 Kairat 32 6 11 15 29 17 38 -21 — —
5 Akzhayik 32 7 5 20 26 33 58 -25 — —
6 Okzhetpes 32 6 7 19 25 24 57 -33 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Irtysh 56 31.40 +24.60
2 Tobol 64 42.82 +21.18
3 Aktobe 63 43.75 +19.25
4 Zhetysu 49 32.23 +16.77
5 Ordabasy 45 28.98 +16.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shakter Karagandy 41 41.88 -0.88
2 Kairat 29 21.50 +7.50
3 Okzhetpes 25 16.61 +8.39
4 Taraz 37 28.21 +8.79
5 Lokomotiv Astana 50 36.97 +13.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Irtysh 5 Apr 20 – May 7 1 in 372
2 Akzhayik 2 Aug 22 – Sep 11 1 in 44
3 Lokomotiv Astana 3 Jun 17 – Jun 27 1 in 43
4 Zhetysu 3 May 12 – May 25 1 in 14
5 Ordabasy 3 Sep 11 – Sep 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Okzhetpes 8 Apr 25 – May 30 1 in 188
2 Irtysh 4 Aug 22 – Sep 22 1 in 27
3 Zhetysu 3 Jul 18 – Aug 1 1 in 22
4 Ordabasy 2 Apr 25 – May 1 1 in 15
5 Taraz 5 Jun 27 – Aug 14 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Astana 15 Jun 17 – Oct 27 1 in 225
2 Irtysh 8 Apr 9 – May 20 1 in 128
3 Okzhetpes 3 Aug 14 – Sep 11 1 in 23
4 Akzhayik 3 Jul 18 – Aug 1 1 in 22
5 Taraz 8 Aug 22 – Oct 27 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shakter Karagandy 12 Aug 1 – Nov 6 1 in 227
2 Kairat 11 Jun 22 – Sep 30 1 in 48
3 Aktobe 3 Apr 9 – Apr 20 1 in 31
4 Okzhetpes 16 Apr 25 – Aug 1 1 in 30
5 Taraz 7 Apr 15 – May 20 1 in 26

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tobol 1490 64 +3 9 8.4 +0.6
Aktobe 1558 63 +50 13 9.3 +3.7
Irtysh 1354 56 +44 12 5.4 +6.6
Lokomotiv Astana 1423 50 -28 5 8.2 -3.2
Zhetysu 1287 49 -7 8 9.3 -1.3
Ordabasy 1200 45 -96 5 9.8 -4.8
Atyrau 1263 44 -28 3 4.5 -1.5
Shakter Karagandy 1306 41 -41 1 5.6 -4.6
Taraz 1228 37 -1 8 8.8 -0.8
Kairat 1075 29 +17 8 5.4 +2.6
Akzhayik 1060 26 +77 6 3.9 +2.1
Okzhetpes 1032 25 +11 6 4.2 +1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AKZ ATY IRT KAI LA OKZ ORD SK TAR TOB ZHE
Aktobe —
1-1-0
5.22
3-0-1
8.01
2-1-1
7.74
2-0-0
4.59
1-2-1
6.46
2-0-0
4.97
1-1-0
4.03
2-0-2
7.24
1-1-0
4.44
2-0-2
5.58
2-0-0
3.86
Akzhayik
0-1-1
0.50
—
0-1-1
0.89
0-0-2
1.02
1-2-1
3.39
0-1-1
0.61
3-0-1
4.49
3-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
0.56
0-0-4
2.39
0-0-2
0.50
0-0-4
1.87
Atyrau
1-0-3
3.05
1-1-0
4.72
—
1-0-3
5.42
1-0-1
3.66
1-1-2
3.89
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-1
3.03
2-2-0
4.07
2-0-0
3.05
0-1-3
3.16
1-0-1
2.52
Irtysh
1-1-2
3.30
2-0-0
4.58
3-0-1
5.56
—
0-2-0
3.49
2-0-2
4.24
2-0-0
4.01
0-1-1
2.99
3-1-0
4.62
1-1-0
3.02
1-1-2
3.49
1-1-0
2.28
Kairat
0-0-2
1.00
1-2-1
7.64
1-0-1
1.84
0-2-0
2.00
—
0-2-0
1.21
3-1-0
6.32
1-2-1
3.34
0-0-2
1.23
0-2-2
4.39
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-4
3.29
Lokomotiv Astana
1-2-1
4.53
1-1-0
5.07
2-1-1
7.12
2-0-2
6.77
0-2-0
4.34
—
1-0-1
4.46
1-0-1
3.77
2-1-1
5.74
1-0-1
3.59
2-1-1
4.68
1-0-1
3.29
Okzhetpes
0-0-2
0.69
1-0-3
6.49
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-3
4.66
1-0-1
1.11
—
2-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
0.87
1-2-1
3.04
0-0-2
0.71
1-3-0
2.39
Ordabasy
0-1-1
1.50
1-0-3
9.11
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.49
1-2-1
7.70
1-0-1
1.74
1-1-2
8.53
—
2-0-0
1.46
2-2-0
5.78
0-0-2
1.40
2-2-0
4.67
Shakter Karagandy
2-0-2
3.76
2-0-0
5.15
0-2-2
6.93
0-1-3
6.36
2-0-0
4.32
1-1-2
5.25
2-0-0
4.75
0-0-2
4.06
—
2-0-0
3.95
0-3-1
4.42
0-1-1
3.63
Taraz
0-1-1
1.13
4-0-0
8.74
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
2.46
2-2-0
6.62
1-0-1
1.91
1-2-1
8.01
0-2-2
5.19
0-0-2
1.57
—
0-0-2
1.27
1-2-1
4.39
Tobol
2-0-2
5.40
2-0-0
5.22
3-1-0
7.88
2-1-1
7.52
2-0-0
4.56
1-1-2
6.31
2-0-0
4.94
2-0-0
4.13
1-3-0
6.58
2-0-0
4.27
—
0-1-1
3.93
Zhetysu
0-0-2
1.65
4-0-0
9.34
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
3.20
4-0-0
7.76
1-0-1
2.21
0-3-1
8.76
0-2-2
6.32
1-1-0
1.87
1-2-1
6.61
1-1-0
1.59
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +10.9
Allowed 0.66 -9.6
Differential 0.93 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.42%13.02%6.51%2.86%1.30%0.26%34.38%
113.02%9.38%6.77%3.12%1.30%0.52%34.11%
26.51%6.77%4.69%1.04%0.52%0.52%20.05%
32.86%3.12%1.04%———7.03%
41.30%1.30%0.52%———3.12%
5+0.26%0.52%0.52%———1.30%
Total34.38%34.11%20.05%7.03%3.12%1.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.15 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.15 1.69
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
118.75%9.38%12.50%3.12%——43.75%
215.62%6.25%6.25%———28.12%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total40.62%28.12%28.12%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.94 +0.81
SD 1.30 0.91 1.49
CV 0.74 0.97 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%18.75%9.38%——37.50%
13.12%6.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%—28.12%
29.38%6.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%—31.25%
3———————
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%18.75%34.38%18.75%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.81 -0.78
SD 1.00 1.23 1.75
CV 0.97 0.68 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%9.38%12.50%——31.25%
115.62%9.38%9.38%3.12%——37.50%
26.25%15.62%3.12%——3.12%28.12%
3———————
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%31.25%21.88%15.62%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.38 -0.25
SD 1.18 1.24 1.95
CV 1.05 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—34.38%
118.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%—34.38%
2—12.50%————12.50%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total43.75%37.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.94 +0.28
SD 1.24 1.16 1.69
CV 1.02 1.24 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%18.75%12.50%6.25%——56.25%
115.62%9.38%3.12%3.12%—3.12%34.38%
2—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total34.38%31.25%21.88%9.38%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.53 1.19 -0.66
SD 0.67 1.20 1.31
CV 1.26 1.01 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%3.12%———25.00%
118.75%6.25%6.25%9.38%——40.62%
29.38%3.12%9.38%———21.88%
36.25%—————6.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total50.00%21.88%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.88 +0.41
SD 1.11 1.04 1.66
CV 0.87 1.19 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%25.00%9.38%—6.25%3.12%53.12%
16.25%6.25%—6.25%6.25%—25.00%
2—6.25%6.25%—3.12%—15.62%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.62%40.62%18.75%6.25%15.62%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.78 -1.03
SD 0.95 1.50 1.73
CV 1.27 0.84 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%6.25%—3.12%—28.12%
115.62%18.75%9.38%3.12%——46.88%
26.25%6.25%—3.12%——15.62%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%43.75%15.62%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.06 +0.09
SD 1.17 1.01 1.59
CV 1.01 0.95 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%28.12%3.12%—3.12%—40.62%
112.50%18.75%3.12%3.12%——37.50%
29.38%—————9.38%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%53.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 1.19 0.91 1.61
CV 1.19 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%18.75%3.12%3.12%——37.50%
13.12%9.38%12.50%——3.12%28.12%
23.12%6.25%9.38%———18.75%
36.25%3.12%6.25%———15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%37.50%31.25%3.12%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.25 -0.12
SD 1.10 1.08 1.50
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
112.50%6.25%3.12%———21.88%
212.50%6.25%3.12%——3.12%25.00%
33.12%15.62%————18.75%
46.25%3.12%————9.38%
5+———————
Total46.88%37.50%12.50%——3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 0.78 +0.88
SD 1.31 1.04 1.68
CV 0.79 1.33 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%12.50%3.12%———34.38%
115.62%6.25%9.38%———31.25%
26.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%——25.00%
36.25%—————6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total46.88%28.12%21.88%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.81 +0.31
SD 1.07 0.90 1.23
CV 0.95 1.10 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Aktobe 1558 63 43.75 +19.25 18.0% 29 34 39 44 48 54 58
Tobol 1490 64 42.82 +21.18 84.0% 23 34 39 42 46 52 55
Lokomotiv Astana 1423 50 36.97 +13.03 46.0% 23 29 33 37 40 46 49
Irtysh 1354 56 31.40 +24.60 95.0% 18 21 27 31 35 43 48
Shakter Karagandy 1306 41 41.88 -0.88 22.0% 29 32 38 42 45 52 56
Zhetysu 1287 49 32.23 +16.77 65.0% 19 24 28 32 36 41 48
Atyrau 1263 44 30.49 +13.51 85.0% 15 22 25 30 35 40 43
Taraz 1228 37 28.21 +8.79 5.0% 12 18 24 28 32 36 50
Ordabasy 1200 45 28.98 +16.02 59.0% 17 18 25 28 33 40 49
Kairat 1075 29 21.50 +7.50 41.0% 10 13 18 22 25 30 34
Akzhayik 1060 26 10.19 +15.81 84.0% 2 4 7 10 12 17 24
Okzhetpes 1032 25 16.61 +8.39 24.0% 5 7 14 16 20 26 35

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.19%
No Edge
46.35%24.48%29.17%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 60.31 Elo pts.
279 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.30 goals
Neutral
-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Tobol, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.51 * Some Luck: 4.51 to 6.76 * Lucky: 6.76 to 9.02 * Wild Swing: 9.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.08 * Close: 1.08 to 1.61 * Off: 1.61 to 2.15 * Way Off: 2.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.71 points
Some Luck
05.6414
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Close
01.343
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.00%
Irtysh
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.00%
Taraz
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 166.21
1.77
Moderate Separation
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
78%
Clear Edge
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Notable Separation
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.97
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Near-Lock
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.05
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.72
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.143
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1230.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Tobol31.00%25.00%24.00%9.00%8.00%2.00%——1.00%———
Aktobe37.00%22.00%16.00%15.00%7.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Irtysh2.00%5.00%9.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%20.00%10.00%15.00%3.00%——
Lokomotiv Astana6.00%11.00%15.00%27.00%15.00%8.00%13.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%——
Zhetysu1.00%3.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%——
Ordabasy1.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%9.00%12.00%14.00%25.00%12.00%14.00%2.00%—
Atyrau2.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%14.00%17.00%18.00%14.00%14.00%5.00%1.00%—
Shakter Karagandy20.00%28.00%19.00%14.00%11.00%6.00%—2.00%————
Taraz—2.00%1.00%1.00%8.00%18.00%12.00%19.00%25.00%11.00%3.00%—
Kairat———1.00%1.00%2.00%6.00%8.00%15.00%37.00%27.00%3.00%
Akzhayik—————————4.00%17.00%79.00%
Okzhetpes—————1.00%—4.00%7.00%20.00%50.00%18.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Aktobe 100% —
Irtysh 100% —
Lokomotiv Astana 100% —
Shakter Karagandy 100% —
Tobol 100% —
Zhetysu 100% —
Atyrau 99.00% 1.00%
Ordabasy 98.00% 2.00%
Taraz 97.00% 3.00%
Kairat 70.00% 30.00%
Okzhetpes 32.00% 68.00%
Akzhayik 4.00% 96.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-03-22 Irtysh L 1-434.1 949 1202 16.04% 23.64% 60.32%-0.69 -14.3 0
2010-03-22 @ Akzhayik W 4-134.1 1202 949 60.32% 23.64% 16.04%+0.69 +14.3 3
2010-03-22 Kairat D 0-050.8 1393 1187 66.83% 21.74% 11.43%+0.95 -4.6 1
2010-03-22 @ Lokomotiv Astana D 0-050.8 1187 1393 11.43% 21.74% 66.83%-0.95 +4.6 1
2010-03-22 Okzhetpes D 1-155.0 1233 1118 58.74% 23.99% 17.27%+0.63 -3.0 1
2010-03-22 @ Ordabasy D 1-155.0 1118 1233 17.27% 23.99% 58.74%-0.63 +3.0 1
2010-03-22 Taraz W 1-035.9 1426 1270 62.66% 23.04% 14.30%+0.78 +5.5 3
2010-03-22 @ Tobol L 0-135.9 1270 1426 14.30% 23.04% 62.66%-0.78 -5.5 0
2010-03-28 Aktobe W 2-046.4 1415 1505 32.93% 25.90% 41.18%-0.11 +25.4 3
2010-03-28 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-246.4 1505 1415 41.18% 25.90% 32.93%+0.11 -25.4 0
2010-03-28 Akzhayik W 3-024.8 1264 935 75.54% 17.97% 6.49%+1.39 +6.5 3
2010-03-28 @ Taraz L 0-324.8 935 1264 6.49% 17.97% 75.54%-1.39 -6.5 0
2010-03-28 Lokomotiv Astana W 2-155.2 1121 1388 14.96% 23.28% 61.75%-0.74 +18.0 4
2010-03-28 @ Okzhetpes L 1-255.2 1388 1121 61.75% 23.28% 14.96%+0.74 -17.9 1
2010-03-28 Ordabasy D 0-049.1 1216 1230 43.46% 25.81% 30.72%+0.16 -0.9 4
2010-03-28 @ Irtysh D 0-049.1 1230 1216 30.72% 25.81% 43.46%-0.16 +1.0 2
2010-03-28 Tobol L 1-343.3 1295 1432 26.98% 25.57% 47.46%-0.27 -15.9 0
2010-03-28 @ Atyrau W 3-143.3 1432 1295 47.46% 25.57% 26.98%+0.27 +15.9 6
2010-03-28 Zhetysu L 0-335.4 1192 1281 33.02% 25.90% 41.08%-0.10 -31.2 1
2010-03-28 @ Kairat W 3-035.4 1281 1192 41.08% 25.90% 33.02%+0.10 +31.2 3
2010-04-03 Aktobe L 0-141.0 1312 1480 23.53% 25.20% 51.27%-0.38 -8.7 3
2010-04-03 @ Zhetysu W 1-041.0 1480 1312 51.27% 25.20% 23.53%+0.38 +8.7 3
2010-04-03 Atyrau D 1-155.7 929 1279 10.22% 21.04% 68.73%-1.04 +4.4 1
2010-04-03 @ Akzhayik D 1-155.7 1279 929 68.73% 21.04% 10.22%+1.04 -4.4 1
2010-04-03 Irtysh W 3-029.5 1370 1215 62.50% 23.08% 14.41%+0.77 +15.3 4
2010-04-03 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-329.5 1215 1370 14.41% 23.08% 62.50%-0.77 -15.3 4
2010-04-03 Okzhetpes W 1-038.5 1160 1139 48.17% 25.51% 26.32%+0.29 +9.5 4
2010-04-03 @ Kairat L 0-138.5 1139 1160 26.32% 25.51% 48.17%-0.29 -9.5 4
2010-04-03 Shakter Karagandy D 0-054.9 1448 1441 46.28% 25.65% 28.07%+0.24 -1.4 7
2010-04-03 @ Tobol D 0-054.9 1441 1448 28.07% 25.65% 46.28%-0.24 +1.4 4
2010-04-03 Taraz W 1-041.3 1231 1271 39.99% 25.93% 34.09%+0.07 +11.7 5
2010-04-03 @ Ordabasy L 0-141.3 1271 1231 34.09% 25.93% 39.99%-0.07 -11.7 3
2010-04-09 Akzhayik W 3-238.7 1442 933 84.85% 12.38% 2.77%+2.04 +0.8 7
2010-04-09 @ Shakter Karagandy L 2-338.7 933 1442 2.77% 12.38% 84.85%-2.04 -0.8 1
2010-04-09 Lokomotiv Astana W 1-045.7 1259 1385 28.22% 25.67% 46.11%-0.24 +14.8 6
2010-04-09 @ Taraz L 0-145.7 1385 1259 46.11% 25.67% 28.22%+0.24 -14.7 4
2010-04-09 Kairat D 0-049.1 1200 1170 49.16% 25.42% 25.42%+0.32 -1.8 5
2010-04-09 @ Irtysh D 0-049.1 1170 1200 25.42% 25.42% 49.16%-0.32 +1.8 5
2010-04-09 Ordabasy W 1-038.6 1275 1243 49.43% 25.39% 25.18%+0.33 +9.2 4
2010-04-09 @ Atyrau L 0-138.6 1243 1275 25.18% 25.39% 49.43%-0.33 -9.2 5
2010-04-09 Tobol L 1-355.6 1488 1446 50.63% 25.27% 24.10%+0.37 -26.1 3
2010-04-09 @ Aktobe W 3-155.6 1446 1488 24.10% 25.27% 50.63%-0.37 +26.1 10
2010-04-09 Zhetysu D 0-049.3 1129 1303 22.88% 25.11% 52.01%-0.41 +2.3 5
2010-04-09 @ Okzhetpes D 0-049.3 1303 1129 52.01% 25.11% 22.88%+0.41 -2.3 4
2010-04-15 Aktobe D 1-157.6 932 1462 4.46% 15.40% 80.14%-1.68 +5.6 2
2010-04-15 @ Akzhayik D 1-157.6 1462 932 80.14% 15.40% 4.46%+1.68 -5.6 4
2010-04-15 Atyrau W 1-037.6 1371 1284 55.72% 24.56% 19.71%+0.53 +7.4 7
2010-04-15 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-137.6 1284 1371 19.71% 24.56% 55.72%-0.53 -7.5 4
2010-04-15 Shakter Karagandy W 1-048.6 1234 1443 19.53% 24.53% 55.95%-0.53 +17.4 8
2010-04-15 @ Ordabasy L 0-148.6 1443 1234 55.95% 24.53% 19.53%+0.53 -17.4 7
2010-04-15 Taraz D 0-049.1 1172 1274 31.30% 25.84% 42.86%-0.15 +0.9 6
2010-04-15 @ Kairat D 0-049.1 1274 1172 42.86% 25.84% 31.30%+0.15 -0.9 7
2010-04-15 Tobol D 0-052.1 1301 1473 23.14% 25.14% 51.72%-0.40 +2.2 5
2010-04-15 @ Zhetysu D 0-052.1 1473 1301 51.72% 25.14% 23.14%+0.40 -2.2 11
2010-04-20 Akzhayik W 3-129.7 1470 938 85.81% 11.72% 2.47%+2.12 +1.3 14
2010-04-20 @ Tobol L 1-329.7 938 1470 2.47% 11.72% 85.81%-2.12 -1.3 2
2010-04-20 Lokomotiv Astana W 3-143.6 1426 1378 51.29% 25.19% 23.51%+0.39 +14.2 10
2010-04-20 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-343.6 1378 1426 23.51% 25.19% 51.29%-0.39 -14.2 7
2010-04-20 Kairat W 2-032.3 1277 1173 57.55% 24.23% 18.21%+0.59 +13.1 7
2010-04-20 @ Atyrau L 0-232.3 1173 1277 18.21% 24.23% 57.55%-0.59 -13.1 6
2010-04-20 Okzhetpes L 1-254.8 1273 1131 61.26% 23.41% 15.33%+0.72 -17.8 7
2010-04-20 @ Taraz W 2-154.8 1131 1273 15.33% 23.41% 61.26%-0.72 +17.8 8
2010-04-20 Ordabasy D 1-157.5 1457 1251 66.83% 21.74% 11.43%+0.95 -4.1 5
2010-04-20 @ Aktobe D 1-157.5 1251 1457 11.43% 21.74% 66.83%-0.95 +4.1 9
2010-04-20 Zhetysu W 1-044.1 1198 1303 30.89% 25.82% 43.29%-0.16 +14.0 8
2010-04-20 @ Irtysh L 0-144.1 1303 1198 43.29% 25.82% 30.89%+0.16 -14.0 5
2010-04-25 Aktobe L 0-144.6 1364 1453 33.06% 25.90% 41.04%-0.10 -11.4 7
2010-04-25 @ Lokomotiv Astana W 1-044.6 1453 1364 41.04% 25.90% 33.06%+0.10 +11.4 8
2010-04-25 Akzhayik W 2-136.1 1289 937 76.97% 17.21% 5.82%+1.48 +2.0 8
2010-04-25 @ Zhetysu L 1-236.1 937 1289 5.82% 17.21% 76.97%-1.48 -2.0 2
2010-04-25 Atyrau L 0-634.7 1149 1290 26.54% 25.53% 47.93%-0.29 -50.2 8
2010-04-25 @ Okzhetpes W 6-034.7 1290 1149 47.93% 25.53% 26.54%+0.29 +50.3 10
2010-04-25 Shakter Karagandy L 0-134.9 1160 1440 14.12% 22.97% 62.91%-0.79 -5.5 6
2010-04-25 @ Kairat W 1-034.9 1440 1160 62.91% 22.97% 14.12%+0.79 +5.5 13
2010-04-25 Taraz W 2-147.7 1212 1255 39.48% 25.94% 34.58%+0.06 +11.1 11
2010-04-25 @ Irtysh L 1-247.7 1255 1212 34.58% 25.94% 39.48%-0.06 -11.1 7
2010-04-25 Tobol L 1-244.4 1255 1472 18.91% 24.39% 56.70%-0.56 -6.8 9
2010-04-25 @ Ordabasy W 2-144.4 1472 1255 56.70% 24.39% 18.91%+0.56 +6.8 17
2010-04-28 Atyrau W 3-033.3 1464 1340 59.58% 23.81% 16.61%+0.66 +17.5 11
2010-04-28 @ Aktobe L 0-333.3 1340 1464 16.61% 23.81% 59.58%-0.66 -17.5 10
2010-04-28 Irtysh L 2-444.8 1099 1223 28.48% 25.68% 45.83%-0.23 -14.8 8
2010-04-28 @ Okzhetpes W 4-244.8 1223 1099 45.83% 25.68% 28.48%+0.23 +14.8 14
2010-04-28 Shakter Karagandy D 0-051.4 1291 1445 25.02% 25.38% 49.61%-0.34 +1.9 9
2010-04-28 @ Zhetysu D 0-051.4 1445 1291 49.61% 25.38% 25.02%+0.34 -1.9 14
2010-05-01 Lokomotiv Astana L 0-152.3 1478 1353 59.76% 23.77% 16.47%+0.67 -18.5 17
2010-05-01 @ Tobol W 1-052.3 1353 1478 16.47% 23.77% 59.76%-0.67 +18.5 10
2010-05-01 Irtysh L 0-342.1 1322 1238 55.50% 24.60% 19.90%+0.52 -47.4 10
2010-05-01 @ Atyrau W 3-042.1 1238 1322 19.90% 24.60% 55.50%-0.52 +47.4 17
2010-05-01 Kairat W 1-031.5 1482 1154 75.44% 18.02% 6.54%+1.39 +2.4 14
2010-05-01 @ Aktobe L 0-131.5 1154 1482 6.54% 18.02% 75.44%-1.39 -2.4 6
2010-05-01 Okzhetpes W 2-026.6 1443 1084 77.36% 17.00% 5.64%+1.50 +3.8 17
2010-05-01 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-226.6 1084 1443 5.64% 17.00% 77.36%-1.50 -3.8 8
2010-05-01 Ordabasy W 2-155.6 935 1248 12.09% 22.09% 65.82%-0.91 +19.0 5
2010-05-01 @ Akzhayik L 1-255.6 1248 935 65.82% 22.09% 12.09%+0.91 -19.0 9
2010-05-01 Zhetysu D 2-260.8 1244 1293 38.63% 25.95% 35.42%+0.04 -0.2 8
2010-05-01 @ Taraz D 2-260.8 1293 1244 35.42% 25.95% 38.63%-0.04 +0.2 10
2010-05-07 Aktobe L 0-131.8 1080 1484 8.02% 19.43% 72.56%-1.23 -3.0 8
2010-05-07 @ Okzhetpes W 1-031.8 1484 1080 72.56% 19.43% 8.02%+1.23 +3.0 17
2010-05-07 Akzhayik W 2-025.2 1371 954 80.55% 15.15% 4.30%+1.71 +2.8 13
2010-05-07 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-225.2 954 1371 4.30% 15.15% 80.55%-1.71 -2.8 5
2010-05-07 Atyrau L 1-249.8 1244 1275 41.13% 25.90% 32.97%+0.10 -12.7 8
2010-05-07 @ Taraz W 2-149.8 1275 1244 32.97% 25.90% 41.13%-0.10 +12.7 13
2010-05-07 Ordabasy D 0-049.6 1293 1229 53.18% 24.95% 21.86%+0.44 -2.5 11
2010-05-07 @ Zhetysu D 0-049.6 1229 1293 21.86% 24.95% 53.18%-0.44 +2.5 10
2010-05-07 Shakter Karagandy W 3-150.3 1285 1447 24.18% 25.28% 50.54%-0.36 +26.0 20
2010-05-07 @ Irtysh L 1-350.3 1447 1285 50.54% 25.28% 24.18%+0.36 -26.0 17
2010-05-07 Tobol L 0-134.3 1152 1460 12.41% 22.24% 65.35%-0.89 -4.8 6
2010-05-07 @ Kairat W 1-034.3 1460 1152 65.35% 22.24% 12.41%+0.89 +4.8 20
2010-05-12 Lokomotiv Astana W 3-148.3 1232 1374 26.39% 25.52% 48.09%-0.29 +25.0 13
2010-05-12 @ Ordabasy L 1-348.3 1374 1232 48.09% 25.52% 26.39%+0.29 -24.9 13
2010-05-12 Irtysh D 0-053.4 1487 1311 64.32% 22.56% 13.12%+0.84 -4.2 18
2010-05-12 @ Aktobe D 0-053.4 1311 1487 13.12% 22.56% 64.32%-0.84 +4.2 21
2010-05-12 Kairat D 2-260.6 951 1147 20.72% 24.76% 54.52%-0.49 +1.8 6
2010-05-12 @ Akzhayik D 2-260.6 1147 951 54.52% 24.76% 20.72%+0.49 -1.8 7
2010-05-12 Okzhetpes W 4-024.3 1465 1077 78.96% 16.10% 4.95%+1.60 +6.3 23
2010-05-12 @ Tobol L 0-424.3 1077 1465 4.95% 16.10% 78.96%-1.60 -6.3 8
2010-05-12 Taraz W 2-030.9 1421 1231 65.55% 22.18% 12.28%+0.90 +9.0 20
2010-05-12 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-230.9 1231 1421 12.28% 22.18% 65.55%-0.90 -9.0 8
2010-05-12 Zhetysu L 1-251.2 1288 1291 44.97% 25.74% 29.29%+0.21 -13.6 13
2010-05-12 @ Atyrau W 2-151.2 1291 1288 29.29% 25.74% 44.97%-0.21 +13.6 14
2010-05-20 Aktobe D 2-262.9 1222 1483 15.45% 23.45% 61.10%-0.72 +2.5 9
2010-05-20 @ Taraz D 2-262.9 1483 1222 61.10% 23.45% 15.45%+0.72 -2.5 19
2010-05-20 Akzhayik L 0-147.8 1071 953 59.02% 23.93% 17.05%+0.64 -18.3 8
2010-05-20 @ Okzhetpes W 1-047.8 953 1071 17.05% 23.93% 59.02%-0.64 +18.3 9
2010-05-20 Lokomotiv Astana W 1-042.5 1304 1349 39.27% 25.94% 34.79%+0.06 +11.9 17
2010-05-20 @ Zhetysu L 0-142.5 1349 1304 34.79% 25.94% 39.27%-0.06 -11.9 13
2010-05-20 Ordabasy W 1-044.1 1145 1257 30.04% 25.78% 44.18%-0.18 +14.2 10
2010-05-20 @ Kairat L 0-144.1 1257 1145 44.18% 25.78% 30.04%+0.18 -14.2 13
2010-05-20 Shakter Karagandy W 1-047.4 1274 1430 24.81% 25.35% 49.83%-0.34 +15.8 16
2010-05-20 @ Atyrau L 0-147.4 1430 1274 49.83% 25.35% 24.81%+0.34 -15.8 20
2010-05-20 Tobol D 0-052.3 1316 1471 24.88% 25.36% 49.76%-0.34 +1.9 22
2010-05-20 @ Irtysh D 0-052.3 1471 1316 49.76% 25.36% 24.88%+0.34 -1.9 24
2010-05-25 Atyrau D 2-264.1 1469 1290 64.63% 22.47% 12.90%+0.86 -2.8 25
2010-05-25 @ Tobol D 2-264.1 1290 1469 12.90% 22.47% 64.63%-0.86 +2.8 17
2010-05-25 Irtysh W 1-043.1 1243 1318 34.95% 25.94% 39.11%-0.05 +12.9 16
2010-05-25 @ Ordabasy L 0-143.1 1318 1243 39.11% 25.94% 34.95%+0.05 -12.9 22
2010-05-25 Kairat W 1-034.5 1316 1159 62.67% 23.04% 14.29%+0.78 +5.5 20
2010-05-25 @ Zhetysu L 0-134.5 1159 1316 14.29% 23.04% 62.67%-0.78 -5.5 10
2010-05-25 Okzhetpes W 4-025.8 1337 1053 72.65% 19.39% 7.97%+1.23 +10.7 16
2010-05-25 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-425.8 1053 1337 7.97% 19.39% 72.65%-1.23 -10.7 8
2010-05-25 Shakter Karagandy L 0-152.6 1480 1414 53.43% 24.92% 21.65%+0.45 -16.7 19
2010-05-25 @ Aktobe W 1-052.6 1414 1480 21.65% 24.92% 53.43%-0.45 +16.7 23
2010-05-25 Taraz L 2-345.8 971 1225 15.93% 23.60% 60.47%-0.69 -5.5 9
2010-05-25 @ Akzhayik W 3-245.8 1225 971 60.47% 23.60% 15.93%+0.69 +5.5 12
2010-05-30 Akzhayik W 2-026.7 1293 965 75.44% 18.02% 6.54%+1.39 +4.5 20
2010-05-30 @ Atyrau L 0-226.7 965 1293 6.54% 18.02% 75.44%-1.39 -4.5 9
2010-05-30 Lokomotiv Astana W 3-144.8 1305 1348 39.47% 25.94% 34.60%+0.06 +19.3 25
2010-05-30 @ Irtysh L 1-344.8 1348 1305 34.60% 25.94% 39.47%-0.06 -19.3 16
2010-05-30 Kairat L 0-139.7 1042 1154 30.02% 25.78% 44.20%-0.18 -10.6 8
2010-05-30 @ Okzhetpes W 1-039.7 1154 1042 44.20% 25.78% 30.02%+0.18 +10.6 13
2010-05-30 Ordabasy D 0-049.2 1230 1256 41.93% 25.87% 32.19%+0.12 -0.7 13
2010-05-30 @ Taraz D 0-049.2 1256 1230 32.19% 25.87% 41.93%-0.12 +0.7 17
2010-05-30 Tobol D 1-160.6 1431 1466 40.59% 25.91% 33.50%+0.09 -0.5 24
2010-05-30 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-160.6 1466 1431 33.50% 25.91% 40.59%-0.09 +0.5 26
2010-05-30 Zhetysu W 2-144.1 1463 1322 61.28% 23.40% 15.32%+0.72 +5.6 22
2010-05-30 @ Aktobe L 1-244.1 1322 1463 15.32% 23.40% 61.28%-0.72 -5.6 20
2010-06-08 Aktobe W 2-153.3 1467 1469 45.05% 25.73% 29.22%+0.21 +9.8 29
2010-06-08 @ Tobol L 1-253.3 1469 1467 29.22% 25.73% 45.05%-0.21 -9.8 22
2010-06-08 Atyrau W 2-147.9 1256 1297 39.77% 25.93% 34.30%+0.07 +11.0 20
2010-06-08 @ Ordabasy L 1-247.9 1297 1256 34.30% 25.93% 39.77%-0.07 -11.0 20
2010-06-08 Irtysh D 0-049.4 1164 1324 24.43% 25.31% 50.26%-0.35 +2.0 14
2010-06-08 @ Kairat D 0-049.4 1324 1164 50.26% 25.31% 24.43%+0.35 -2.0 26
2010-06-08 Okzhetpes D 2-262.3 1316 1031 72.68% 19.37% 7.95%+1.24 -3.6 21
2010-06-08 @ Zhetysu D 2-262.3 1031 1316 7.95% 19.37% 72.68%-1.24 +3.6 9
2010-06-08 Shakter Karagandy L 0-324.6 961 1431 5.91% 17.32% 76.77%-1.47 -5.9 9
2010-06-08 @ Akzhayik W 3-024.6 1431 961 76.77% 17.32% 5.91%+1.47 +5.9 27
2010-06-08 Taraz W 3-031.0 1328 1229 57.05% 24.33% 18.62%+0.57 +19.4 19
2010-06-08 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-331.0 1229 1328 18.62% 24.33% 57.05%-0.57 -19.4 13
2010-06-13 Akzhayik W 4-127.0 1459 955 84.65% 12.52% 2.83%+2.02 +2.1 25
2010-06-13 @ Aktobe L 1-427.0 955 1459 2.83% 12.52% 84.65%-2.02 -2.1 9
2010-06-13 Lokomotiv Astana W 2-149.3 1286 1348 36.83% 25.96% 37.22%+0.00 +11.8 23
2010-06-13 @ Atyrau L 1-249.3 1348 1286 37.22% 25.96% 36.83%+0.00 -11.8 19
2010-06-13 Kairat W 2-144.1 1210 1166 50.83% 25.25% 23.92%+0.37 +8.3 16
2010-06-13 @ Taraz L 1-244.1 1166 1210 23.92% 25.25% 50.83%-0.37 -8.3 14
2010-06-13 Okzhetpes W 1-031.2 1322 1035 72.82% 19.31% 7.87%+1.24 +3.0 29
2010-06-13 @ Irtysh L 0-131.2 1035 1322 7.87% 19.31% 72.82%-1.24 -3.0 9
2010-06-13 Ordabasy L 0-150.8 1436 1267 63.76% 22.73% 13.51%+0.82 -19.6 27
2010-06-13 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-050.8 1267 1436 13.51% 22.73% 63.76%-0.82 +19.6 23
2010-06-13 Zhetysu L 0-152.1 1476 1313 63.30% 22.86% 13.83%+0.80 -19.5 29
2010-06-13 @ Tobol W 1-052.1 1313 1476 13.83% 22.86% 63.30%-0.80 +19.5 24
2010-06-17 Aktobe L 0-236.2 1287 1461 22.85% 25.10% 52.05%-0.41 -16.0 23
2010-06-17 @ Ordabasy W 2-036.2 1461 1287 52.05% 25.10% 22.85%+0.41 +16.0 28
2010-06-17 Atyrau W 1-045.2 1158 1298 26.62% 25.54% 47.84%-0.28 +15.2 17
2010-06-17 @ Kairat L 0-145.2 1298 1158 47.84% 25.54% 26.62%+0.28 -15.2 23
2010-06-17 Irtysh D 0-050.3 1332 1325 46.29% 25.65% 28.06%+0.24 -1.4 25
2010-06-17 @ Zhetysu D 0-050.3 1325 1332 28.06% 25.65% 46.29%-0.24 +1.4 30
2010-06-17 Shakter Karagandy W 4-039.8 1336 1417 34.15% 25.93% 39.93%-0.07 +47.0 22
2010-06-17 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-439.8 1417 1336 39.93% 25.93% 34.15%+0.07 -47.0 27
2010-06-17 Taraz D 2-260.6 1032 1218 21.67% 24.92% 53.41%-0.45 +1.7 10
2010-06-17 @ Okzhetpes D 2-260.6 1218 1032 53.41% 24.92% 21.67%+0.45 -1.7 17
2010-06-17 Tobol L 0-225.8 953 1457 5.04% 16.22% 78.74%-1.59 -3.4 9
2010-06-17 @ Akzhayik W 2-025.8 1457 953 78.74% 16.22% 5.04%+1.59 +3.4 32
2010-06-22 Lokomotiv Astana L 1-258.6 1477 1383 56.54% 24.42% 19.04%+0.55 -16.6 28
2010-06-22 @ Aktobe W 2-158.6 1383 1477 19.04% 24.42% 56.54%-0.55 +16.6 25
2010-06-22 Irtysh D 1-154.9 1217 1326 30.31% 25.79% 43.89%-0.18 +0.9 18
2010-06-22 @ Taraz D 1-154.9 1326 1217 43.89% 25.79% 30.31%+0.18 -0.9 31
2010-06-22 Kairat W 1-033.7 1370 1173 66.09% 22.00% 11.91%+0.92 +4.6 30
2010-06-22 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-133.7 1173 1370 11.91% 22.00% 66.09%-0.92 -4.6 17
2010-06-22 Okzhetpes W 1-031.9 1283 1034 70.16% 20.47% 9.36%+1.11 +3.6 26
2010-06-22 @ Atyrau L 0-131.9 1034 1283 9.36% 20.47% 70.16%-1.11 -3.6 10
2010-06-22 Ordabasy W 2-031.9 1460 1271 65.50% 22.19% 12.31%+0.89 +9.0 35
2010-06-22 @ Tobol L 0-231.9 1271 1460 12.31% 22.19% 65.50%-0.89 -9.0 23
2010-06-22 Zhetysu L 0-228.0 949 1331 8.88% 20.12% 70.99%-1.15 -6.4 9
2010-06-22 @ Akzhayik W 2-028.0 1331 949 70.99% 20.12% 8.88%+1.15 +6.4 28
2010-06-27 Aktobe L 0-231.2 1169 1461 13.36% 22.67% 63.97%-0.83 -9.8 17
2010-06-27 @ Kairat W 2-031.2 1461 1169 63.97% 22.67% 13.36%+0.83 +9.8 31
2010-06-27 Akzhayik W 2-026.8 1262 943 74.91% 18.29% 6.80%+1.36 +4.7 26
2010-06-27 @ Ordabasy L 0-226.8 943 1262 6.80% 18.29% 74.91%-1.36 -4.7 9
2010-06-27 Atyrau W 3-033.3 1325 1286 50.28% 25.31% 24.41%+0.36 +24.5 34
2010-06-27 @ Irtysh L 0-333.3 1286 1325 24.41% 25.31% 50.28%-0.36 -24.5 26
2010-06-27 Shakter Karagandy L 0-132.6 1030 1374 10.52% 21.22% 68.26%-1.02 -4.0 10
2010-06-27 @ Okzhetpes W 1-032.6 1374 1030 68.26% 21.22% 10.52%+1.02 +4.0 33
2010-06-27 Taraz W 1-035.8 1337 1218 59.12% 23.91% 16.97%+0.64 +6.5 31
2010-06-27 @ Zhetysu L 0-135.8 1218 1337 16.97% 23.91% 59.12%-0.64 -6.5 18
2010-06-27 Tobol W 2-044.0 1400 1469 35.70% 25.95% 38.35%-0.03 +24.0 28
2010-06-27 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-244.0 1469 1400 38.35% 25.95% 35.70%+0.03 -24.0 35
2010-07-17 Okzhetpes W 4-128.0 1471 1026 81.91% 14.31% 3.78%+1.81 +3.0 34
2010-07-17 @ Aktobe L 1-428.0 1026 1471 3.78% 14.31% 81.91%-1.81 -3.0 10
2010-07-18 Lokomotiv Astana D 2-263.1 938 1424 5.50% 16.82% 77.68%-1.52 +4.0 10
2010-07-18 @ Akzhayik D 2-263.1 1424 938 77.68% 16.82% 5.50%+1.52 -4.0 29
2010-07-18 Irtysh L 0-147.5 1379 1350 49.02% 25.43% 25.55%+0.32 -15.5 33
2010-07-18 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-047.5 1350 1379 25.55% 25.43% 49.02%-0.32 +15.5 37
2010-07-18 Kairat W 3-134.4 1445 1159 72.78% 19.32% 7.89%+1.24 +4.9 38
2010-07-18 @ Tobol L 1-334.4 1159 1445 7.89% 19.32% 72.78%-1.24 -4.9 17
2010-07-18 Taraz W 1-037.7 1262 1211 51.69% 25.15% 23.17%+0.40 +8.6 29
2010-07-18 @ Atyrau L 0-137.7 1211 1262 23.17% 25.15% 51.69%-0.40 -8.6 18
2010-07-18 Zhetysu W 2-149.8 1267 1344 34.69% 25.94% 39.37%-0.06 +12.3 29
2010-07-18 @ Ordabasy L 1-249.8 1344 1267 39.37% 25.94% 34.69%+0.06 -12.3 31
2010-07-24 Aktobe W 2-154.6 1365 1474 30.50% 25.80% 43.70%-0.17 +13.3 40
2010-07-24 @ Irtysh L 1-254.6 1474 1365 43.70% 25.80% 30.50%+0.17 -13.3 34
2010-07-25 Akzhayik D 0-050.1 1154 942 67.32% 21.57% 11.11%+0.97 -4.7 18
2010-07-25 @ Kairat D 0-050.1 942 1154 11.11% 21.57% 67.32%-0.97 +4.7 11
2010-07-25 Atyrau L 1-253.5 1331 1270 52.86% 25.00% 22.14%+0.43 -15.6 31
2010-07-25 @ Zhetysu W 2-153.5 1270 1331 22.14% 25.00% 52.86%-0.43 +15.6 32
2010-07-25 Shakter Karagandy L 1-536.3 1202 1363 24.31% 25.30% 50.39%-0.36 -26.6 18
2010-07-25 @ Taraz W 5-136.3 1363 1202 50.39% 25.30% 24.31%+0.36 +26.6 36
2010-07-25 Tobol L 1-333.4 1023 1450 7.20% 18.69% 74.11%-1.31 -4.4 10
2010-07-25 @ Okzhetpes W 3-133.4 1450 1023 74.11% 18.69% 7.20%+1.31 +4.4 41
2010-07-26 Ordabasy W 1-036.4 1420 1279 61.19% 23.43% 15.38%+0.72 +5.9 32
2010-07-26 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-136.4 1279 1420 15.38% 23.43% 61.19%-0.72 -5.9 29
2010-07-31 Irtysh W 4-140.3 1455 1379 54.55% 24.75% 20.70%+0.49 +18.0 44
2010-07-31 @ Tobol L 1-440.3 1379 1455 20.70% 24.75% 54.55%-0.49 -18.0 40
2010-07-31 Taraz W 2-138.6 1460 1176 72.65% 19.39% 7.97%+1.23 +2.8 37
2010-07-31 @ Aktobe L 1-238.6 1176 1460 7.97% 19.39% 72.65%-1.23 -2.8 18
2010-08-01 Atyrau D 1-156.3 1390 1286 57.52% 24.24% 18.24%+0.59 -2.8 37
2010-08-01 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-156.3 1286 1390 18.24% 24.24% 57.52%-0.59 +2.8 33
2010-08-01 Kairat D 1-155.1 1273 1149 59.54% 23.82% 16.64%+0.66 -3.1 30
2010-08-01 @ Ordabasy D 1-155.1 1149 1273 16.64% 23.82% 59.54%-0.66 +3.1 19
2010-08-01 Okzhetpes W 2-038.6 947 1019 35.40% 25.95% 38.65%-0.04 +24.2 14
2010-08-01 @ Akzhayik L 0-238.6 1019 947 38.65% 25.95% 35.40%+0.04 -24.2 10
2010-08-01 Zhetysu W 1-037.9 1426 1316 58.19% 24.11% 17.71%+0.61 +6.8 35
2010-08-01 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-137.9 1316 1426 17.71% 24.11% 58.19%-0.61 -6.8 31
2010-08-14 Aktobe W 2-155.0 1289 1463 22.87% 25.11% 52.02%-0.41 +15.4 36
2010-08-14 @ Atyrau L 1-255.0 1463 1289 52.02% 25.11% 22.87%+0.41 -15.4 37
2010-08-14 Akzhayik W 1-029.3 1361 971 79.07% 16.03% 4.90%+1.61 +1.7 43
2010-08-14 @ Irtysh L 0-129.3 971 1361 4.90% 16.03% 79.07%-1.61 -1.7 14
2010-08-14 Lokomotiv Astana D 2-262.0 1153 1432 14.13% 22.98% 62.89%-0.79 +2.7 20
2010-08-14 @ Kairat D 2-262.0 1432 1153 62.89% 22.98% 14.13%+0.79 -2.7 36
2010-08-14 Ordabasy W 3-259.7 995 1270 14.43% 23.09% 62.48%-0.77 +17.2 13
2010-08-14 @ Okzhetpes L 2-359.7 1270 995 62.48% 23.09% 14.43%+0.77 -17.2 30
2010-08-14 Tobol L 0-134.8 1173 1473 12.92% 22.47% 64.61%-0.86 -5.0 18
2010-08-14 @ Taraz W 1-034.8 1473 1173 64.61% 22.47% 12.92%+0.86 +5.0 47
2010-08-14 Zhetysu L 1-254.9 1387 1309 54.78% 24.72% 20.50%+0.49 -16.1 37
2010-08-14 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-154.9 1309 1387 20.50% 24.72% 54.78%-0.49 +16.1 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-08-22 Akzhayik L 1-256.8 1253 969 72.57% 19.42% 8.01%+1.23 -20.6 0
2010-08-22 @ Ordabasy W 2-156.8 969 1253 8.01% 19.42% 72.57%-1.23 +20.6 3
2010-08-22 Lokomotiv Astana L 0-144.9 1362 1430 36.02% 25.95% 38.03%-0.03 -12.2 0
2010-08-22 @ Irtysh W 1-044.9 1430 1362 38.03% 25.95% 36.02%+0.03 +12.2 3
2010-08-22 Atyrau W 3-031.4 1478 1304 64.12% 22.62% 13.26%+0.84 +14.1 3
2010-08-22 @ Tobol L 0-331.4 1304 1478 13.26% 22.62% 64.12%-0.84 -14.1 0
2010-08-22 Okzhetpes D 0-051.1 1325 1012 74.55% 18.47% 6.98%+1.34 -5.7 1
2010-08-22 @ Zhetysu D 0-051.1 1012 1325 6.98% 18.47% 74.55%-1.34 +5.7 1
2010-08-22 Shakter Karagandy W 2-036.9 1448 1371 54.68% 24.73% 20.59%+0.49 +14.6 3
2010-08-22 @ Aktobe L 0-236.9 1371 1448 20.59% 24.73% 54.68%-0.49 -14.6 0
2010-08-22 Taraz L 0-338.4 1155 1168 43.65% 25.81% 30.54%+0.17 -38.6 0
2010-08-22 @ Kairat W 3-038.4 1168 1155 30.54% 25.81% 43.65%-0.17 +38.6 3
2010-09-11 Aktobe D 2-266.8 1442 1462 42.64% 25.85% 31.51%+0.14 -0.5 4
2010-09-11 @ Lokomotiv Astana D 2-266.8 1462 1442 31.51% 25.85% 42.64%-0.14 +0.5 4
2010-09-11 Irtysh W 4-033.7 1492 1350 61.23% 23.42% 15.35%+0.72 +21.2 6
2010-09-11 @ Tobol L 0-433.7 1350 1492 15.35% 23.42% 61.23%-0.72 -21.2 0
2010-09-11 Kairat W 2-040.8 990 1117 28.20% 25.66% 46.14%-0.24 +27.8 6
2010-09-11 @ Akzhayik L 0-240.8 1117 990 46.14% 25.66% 28.20%+0.24 -27.8 0
2010-09-11 Ordabasy L 0-244.0 1319 1232 55.78% 24.55% 19.66%+0.53 -32.8 1
2010-09-11 @ Zhetysu W 2-044.0 1232 1319 19.66% 24.55% 55.78%-0.53 +32.8 3
2010-09-11 Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.5 1290 1356 36.23% 25.95% 37.82%-0.02 +0.1 1
2010-09-11 @ Atyrau D 1-155.5 1356 1290 37.82% 25.95% 36.23%+0.02 -0.1 1
2010-09-11 Taraz D 0-049.1 1017 1207 21.38% 24.87% 53.74%-0.46 +2.6 2
2010-09-11 @ Okzhetpes D 0-049.1 1207 1017 53.74% 24.87% 21.38%+0.46 -2.5 4
2010-09-17 Akzhayik W 2-029.7 1204 1018 65.24% 22.28% 12.49%+0.88 +9.1 7
2010-09-17 @ Taraz L 0-229.7 1018 1204 12.49% 22.28% 65.24%-0.88 -9.1 6
2010-09-17 Lokomotiv Astana L 0-144.3 1356 1441 33.50% 25.91% 40.59%-0.09 -11.5 1
2010-09-17 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-044.3 1441 1356 40.59% 25.91% 33.50%+0.09 +11.5 7
2010-09-17 Atyrau L 1-252.9 1329 1290 50.26% 25.31% 24.43%+0.35 -15.0 0
2010-09-17 @ Irtysh W 2-152.9 1290 1329 24.43% 25.31% 50.26%-0.35 +15.0 4
2010-09-17 Okzhetpes W 4-131.3 1265 1020 69.86% 20.60% 9.54%+1.09 +8.4 6
2010-09-17 @ Ordabasy L 1-431.3 1020 1265 9.54% 20.60% 69.86%-1.09 -8.4 2
2010-09-17 Tobol W 2-046.8 1463 1513 38.50% 25.95% 35.55%+0.04 +22.7 7
2010-09-17 @ Aktobe L 0-246.8 1513 1463 35.55% 25.95% 38.50%-0.04 -22.7 6
2010-09-17 Zhetysu L 0-136.6 1089 1287 20.58% 24.73% 54.69%-0.49 -7.7 0
2010-09-17 @ Kairat W 1-036.6 1287 1089 54.69% 24.73% 20.58%+0.49 +7.7 4
2010-09-22 Akzhayik W 1-039.2 1012 1009 45.72% 25.69% 28.58%+0.23 +10.2 5
2010-09-22 @ Okzhetpes L 0-139.2 1009 1012 28.58% 25.69% 45.72%-0.23 -10.2 6
2010-09-22 Lokomotiv Astana D 0-051.7 1305 1453 25.73% 25.45% 48.82%-0.31 +1.8 5
2010-09-22 @ Atyrau D 0-051.7 1453 1305 48.82% 25.45% 25.73%+0.31 -1.8 8
2010-09-22 Irtysh W 1-037.3 1486 1314 63.96% 22.67% 13.37%+0.83 +5.2 10
2010-09-22 @ Aktobe L 0-137.3 1314 1486 13.37% 22.67% 63.96%-0.83 -5.2 0
2010-09-22 Ordabasy L 1-534.6 1081 1273 21.08% 24.82% 54.09%-0.47 -23.6 0
2010-09-22 @ Kairat W 5-134.6 1273 1081 54.09% 24.82% 21.08%+0.47 +23.6 9
2010-09-22 Shakter Karagandy D 1-159.5 1490 1344 61.64% 23.31% 15.05%+0.74 -3.4 7
2010-09-22 @ Tobol D 1-159.5 1344 1490 15.05% 23.31% 61.64%-0.74 +3.4 2
2010-09-22 Taraz L 2-358.4 1294 1213 55.12% 24.66% 20.21%+0.51 -15.4 4
2010-09-22 @ Zhetysu W 3-258.4 1213 1294 20.21% 24.66% 55.12%-0.51 +15.4 10
2010-09-30 Aktobe L 2-541.8 1307 1491 21.92% 24.96% 53.11%-0.44 -16.4 5
2010-09-30 @ Atyrau W 5-241.8 1491 1307 53.11% 24.96% 21.92%+0.44 +16.4 13
2010-09-30 Irtysh D 1-155.8 1348 1309 50.27% 25.31% 24.42%+0.36 -1.8 3
2010-09-30 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.8 1309 1348 24.42% 25.31% 50.27%-0.36 +1.8 1
2010-09-30 Kairat D 1-154.2 1022 1057 40.51% 25.92% 33.58%+0.09 -0.5 6
2010-09-30 @ Okzhetpes D 1-154.2 1057 1022 33.58% 25.92% 40.51%-0.09 +0.5 1
2010-09-30 Ordabasy D 1-154.8 1229 1297 35.87% 25.95% 38.18%-0.03 +0.2 11
2010-09-30 @ Taraz D 1-154.8 1297 1229 38.18% 25.95% 35.87%+0.03 -0.2 10
2010-09-30 Tobol D 0-056.5 1451 1487 40.54% 25.91% 33.54%+0.09 -0.5 9
2010-09-30 @ Lokomotiv Astana D 0-056.5 1487 1451 33.54% 25.91% 40.54%-0.09 +0.5 8
2010-09-30 Zhetysu L 0-328.6 999 1279 14.10% 22.97% 62.93%-0.79 -14.9 6
2010-09-30 @ Akzhayik W 3-028.6 1279 999 62.93% 22.97% 14.10%+0.79 +14.9 7
2010-10-15 Akzhayik W 2-142.9 1058 984 54.38% 24.78% 20.84%+0.48 +7.4 4
2010-10-15 @ Kairat L 1-242.9 984 1058 20.84% 24.78% 54.38%-0.48 -7.4 6
2010-10-15 Lokomotiv Astana D 1-162.9 1507 1451 52.34% 25.07% 22.59%+0.42 -2.1 14
2010-10-15 @ Aktobe D 1-162.9 1451 1507 22.59% 25.07% 52.34%-0.42 +2.1 10
2010-10-15 Atyrau L 0-147.3 1346 1291 52.23% 25.08% 22.69%+0.41 -16.4 3
2010-10-15 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-047.3 1291 1346 22.69% 25.08% 52.23%-0.41 +16.4 8
2010-10-15 Okzhetpes W 3-135.2 1229 1021 66.98% 21.69% 11.33%+0.96 +7.2 14
2010-10-15 @ Taraz L 1-335.2 1021 1229 11.33% 21.69% 66.98%-0.96 -7.1 6
2010-10-15 Tobol W 2-156.0 1311 1487 22.65% 25.07% 52.27%-0.42 +15.5 4
2010-10-15 @ Irtysh L 1-256.0 1487 1311 52.27% 25.07% 22.65%+0.42 -15.5 8
2010-10-15 Zhetysu D 1-155.2 1297 1294 45.75% 25.69% 28.56%+0.23 -1.1 11
2010-10-15 @ Ordabasy D 1-155.2 1294 1297 28.56% 25.69% 45.75%-0.23 +1.2 8
2010-10-22 Aktobe L 2-553.3 1472 1505 40.85% 25.91% 33.24%+0.10 -26.8 8
2010-10-22 @ Tobol W 5-253.3 1505 1472 33.24% 25.91% 40.85%-0.10 +26.8 17
2010-10-22 Irtysh L 1-250.9 1307 1326 42.79% 25.84% 31.37%+0.15 -13.1 8
2010-10-22 @ Atyrau W 2-150.9 1326 1307 31.37% 25.84% 42.79%-0.15 +13.1 7
2010-10-22 Kairat W 2-028.8 1295 1065 68.71% 21.05% 10.23%+1.04 +7.4 11
2010-10-22 @ Zhetysu L 0-228.8 1065 1295 10.23% 21.05% 68.71%-1.04 -7.4 4
2010-10-22 Ordabasy W 3-151.1 1014 1296 14.03% 22.94% 63.04%-0.79 +31.7 9
2010-10-22 @ Okzhetpes L 1-351.1 1296 1014 63.04% 22.94% 14.03%+0.79 -31.7 11
2010-10-22 Shakter Karagandy D 1-158.1 1453 1330 59.48% 23.83% 16.69%+0.66 -3.1 11
2010-10-22 @ Lokomotiv Astana D 1-158.1 1330 1453 16.69% 23.83% 59.48%-0.66 +3.1 4
2010-10-22 Taraz L 1-240.9 976 1236 15.51% 23.47% 61.03%-0.71 -5.6 6
2010-10-22 @ Akzhayik W 2-140.9 1236 976 61.03% 23.47% 15.51%+0.71 +5.6 17
2010-10-27 Aktobe L 1-344.5 1339 1532 21.08% 24.82% 54.10%-0.47 -12.9 7
2010-10-27 @ Irtysh W 3-144.5 1532 1339 54.10% 24.82% 21.08%+0.47 +12.9 20
2010-10-27 Atyrau W 2-033.0 1450 1294 62.56% 23.07% 14.37%+0.77 +10.5 14
2010-10-27 @ Lokomotiv Astana L 0-233.0 1294 1450 14.37% 23.07% 62.56%-0.77 -10.5 8
2010-10-27 Kairat D 1-155.6 1264 1058 66.87% 21.73% 11.40%+0.95 -4.1 12
2010-10-27 @ Ordabasy D 1-155.6 1058 1264 11.40% 21.73% 66.87%-0.95 +4.1 5
2010-10-27 Okzhetpes W 2-038.8 971 1046 34.91% 25.94% 39.15%-0.05 +24.4 9
2010-10-27 @ Akzhayik L 0-238.8 1046 971 39.15% 25.94% 34.91%+0.05 -24.4 9
2010-10-27 Tobol L 0-142.8 1333 1445 29.99% 25.78% 44.24%-0.19 -10.6 4
2010-10-27 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-042.8 1445 1333 44.24% 25.78% 29.99%+0.19 +10.6 11
2010-10-27 Zhetysu D 1-154.8 1242 1302 36.94% 25.96% 37.10%+0.00 +0.0 18
2010-10-27 @ Taraz D 1-154.8 1302 1242 37.10% 25.96% 36.94%+0.00 -0.0 12
2010-11-01 Akzhayik W 4-236.3 1302 995 74.17% 18.66% 7.17%+1.32 +3.9 15
2010-11-01 @ Zhetysu L 2-436.3 995 1302 7.17% 18.66% 74.17%-1.32 -3.9 9
2010-11-01 Lokomotiv Astana W 2-042.7 1456 1460 44.75% 25.75% 29.50%+0.20 +19.7 14
2010-11-01 @ Tobol L 0-242.7 1460 1456 29.50% 25.75% 44.75%-0.20 -19.7 14
2010-11-01 Atyrau W 2-032.2 1545 1283 71.03% 20.11% 8.86%+1.15 +6.4 23
2010-11-01 @ Aktobe L 0-232.2 1283 1545 8.86% 20.11% 71.03%-1.15 -6.4 8
2010-11-01 Okzhetpes W 1-037.7 1062 1021 50.48% 25.29% 24.24%+0.36 +8.9 8
2010-11-01 @ Kairat L 0-137.7 1021 1062 24.24% 25.29% 50.48%-0.36 -8.9 9
2010-11-01 Shakter Karagandy W 1-040.4 1326 1322 45.91% 25.68% 28.41%+0.23 +10.1 10
2010-11-01 @ Irtysh L 0-140.4 1322 1326 28.41% 25.68% 45.91%-0.23 -10.1 4
2010-11-01 Taraz W 1-039.0 1260 1242 47.72% 25.55% 26.73%+0.28 +9.7 15
2010-11-01 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.0 1242 1260 26.73% 25.55% 47.72%-0.28 -9.6 18
2010-11-06 Aktobe L 0-140.4 1312 1551 17.05% 23.93% 59.01%-0.64 -6.5 4
2010-11-06 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-040.4 1551 1312 59.01% 23.93% 17.05%+0.64 +6.5 26
2010-11-06 Irtysh L 0-150.6 1440 1337 57.55% 24.23% 18.22%+0.59 -17.9 14
2010-11-06 @ Lokomotiv Astana W 1-050.6 1337 1440 18.22% 24.23% 57.55%-0.59 +17.9 13
2010-11-06 Kairat D 0-049.8 1232 1071 63.04% 22.94% 14.02%+0.79 -4.0 19
2010-11-06 @ Taraz D 0-049.8 1071 1232 14.02% 22.94% 63.04%-0.79 +4.0 9
2010-11-06 Ordabasy W 4-043.2 991 1270 14.23% 23.02% 62.76%-0.78 +69.1 12
2010-11-06 @ Akzhayik L 0-443.2 1270 991 62.76% 23.02% 14.23%+0.78 -69.1 15
2010-11-06 Tobol L 0-235.5 1277 1475 20.55% 24.73% 54.73%-0.49 -14.6 8
2010-11-06 @ Atyrau W 2-035.5 1475 1277 54.73% 24.73% 20.55%+0.49 +14.6 17
2010-11-06 Zhetysu W 1-049.0 1012 1306 13.26% 22.62% 64.12%-0.84 +19.7 12
2010-11-06 @ Okzhetpes L 0-149.0 1306 1012 64.12% 22.62% 13.26%+0.84 -19.7 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-08-22 8.01% Akzhayik 969 2 @ Ordabasy 1253 1
2 2010-05-01 12.09% @ Akzhayik 935 2 Ordabasy 1248 1
3 2010-11-06 13.26% @ Okzhetpes 1012 1 Zhetysu 1306 0
4 2010-06-13 13.51% Ordabasy 1267 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1436 0
5 2010-06-13 13.83% Zhetysu 1313 1 @ Tobol 1476 0
6 2010-10-22 14.03% @ Okzhetpes 1014 3 Ordabasy 1296 1
7 2010-11-06 14.23% @ Akzhayik 991 4 Ordabasy 1270 0
8 2010-08-14 14.43% @ Okzhetpes 995 3 Ordabasy 1270 2
9 2010-03-28 14.96% @ Okzhetpes 1121 2 Lokomotiv Astana 1388 1
10 2010-04-20 15.33% Okzhetpes 1131 2 @ Taraz 1273 1
11 2010-05-01 16.47% Lokomotiv Astana 1353 1 @ Tobol 1478 0
12 2010-05-20 17.05% Akzhayik 953 1 @ Okzhetpes 1071 0
13 2010-11-06 18.22% Irtysh 1337 1 @ Lokomotiv Astana 1440 0
14 2010-06-22 19.04% Lokomotiv Astana 1383 2 @ Aktobe 1477 1
15 2010-04-15 19.53% @ Ordabasy 1234 1 Shakter Karagandy 1443 0
16 2010-09-11 19.66% Ordabasy 1232 2 @ Zhetysu 1319 0
17 2010-05-01 19.90% Irtysh 1238 3 @ Atyrau 1322 0
18 2010-09-22 20.21% Taraz 1213 3 @ Zhetysu 1294 2
19 2010-08-14 20.50% Zhetysu 1309 2 @ Shakter Karagandy 1387 1
20 2010-05-25 21.65% Shakter Karagandy 1414 1 @ Aktobe 1480 0
21 2010-07-25 22.14% Atyrau 1270 2 @ Zhetysu 1331 1
22 2010-10-15 22.65% @ Irtysh 1311 2 Tobol 1487 1
23 2010-10-15 22.69% Atyrau 1291 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1346 0
24 2010-08-14 22.87% @ Atyrau 1289 2 Aktobe 1463 1
25 2010-04-09 24.10% Tobol 1446 3 @ Aktobe 1488 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-11-06 69.13 @ Akzhayik 4 991 14.23% Ordabasy 0 1270 62.76% 23.02%
2 2010-04-25 50.26 Atyrau 6 1290 47.93% @ Okzhetpes 0 1149 26.54% 25.53%
3 2010-05-01 47.40 Irtysh 3 1238 19.90% @ Atyrau 0 1322 55.50% 24.60%
4 2010-06-17 47.02 @ Lokomotiv Astana 4 1336 34.15% Shakter Karagandy 0 1417 39.93% 25.93%
5 2010-08-22 38.61 Taraz 3 1168 30.54% @ Kairat 0 1155 43.65% 25.81%
6 2010-09-11 32.78 Ordabasy 2 1232 19.66% @ Zhetysu 0 1319 55.78% 24.55%
7 2010-10-22 31.68 @ Okzhetpes 3 1014 14.03% Ordabasy 1 1296 63.04% 22.94%
8 2010-03-28 31.19 Zhetysu 3 1281 41.08% @ Kairat 0 1192 33.02% 25.90%
9 2010-09-11 27.82 @ Akzhayik 2 990 28.20% Kairat 0 1117 46.14% 25.66%
10 2010-10-22 26.75 Aktobe 5 1505 33.24% @ Tobol 2 1472 40.85% 25.91%
11 2010-07-25 26.62 Shakter Karagandy 5 1363 50.39% @ Taraz 1 1202 24.31% 25.30%
12 2010-04-09 26.07 Tobol 3 1446 24.10% @ Aktobe 1 1488 50.63% 25.27%
13 2010-05-07 26.03 @ Irtysh 3 1285 24.18% Shakter Karagandy 1 1447 50.54% 25.28%
14 2010-03-28 25.38 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1415 32.93% Aktobe 0 1505 41.18% 25.90%
15 2010-05-12 24.95 @ Ordabasy 3 1232 26.39% Lokomotiv Astana 1 1374 48.09% 25.52%
16 2010-06-27 24.54 @ Irtysh 3 1325 50.28% Atyrau 0 1286 24.41% 25.31%
17 2010-10-27 24.41 @ Akzhayik 2 971 34.91% Okzhetpes 0 1046 39.15% 25.94%
18 2010-08-01 24.17 @ Akzhayik 2 947 35.40% Okzhetpes 0 1019 38.65% 25.95%
19 2010-06-27 24.03 @ Lokomotiv Astana 2 1400 35.70% Tobol 0 1469 38.35% 25.95%
20 2010-09-22 23.58 Ordabasy 5 1273 54.09% @ Kairat 1 1081 21.08% 24.82%
21 2010-09-17 22.71 @ Aktobe 2 1463 38.50% Tobol 0 1513 35.55% 25.95%
22 2010-09-11 21.19 @ Tobol 4 1492 61.23% Irtysh 0 1350 15.35% 23.42%
23 2010-08-22 20.56 Akzhayik 2 969 8.01% @ Ordabasy 1 1253 72.57% 19.42%
24 2010-11-01 19.69 @ Tobol 2 1456 44.75% Lokomotiv Astana 0 1460 29.50% 25.75%
25 2010-11-06 19.69 @ Okzhetpes 1 1012 13.26% Zhetysu 0 1306 64.12% 22.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-09-11 66.8 @ Lokomotiv Astana 2 1442 42.64% Aktobe 2 1462 31.51% 25.85%
2 2010-05-25 64.1 @ Tobol 2 1469 64.63% Atyrau 2 1290 12.90% 22.47%
3 2010-07-18 63.1 @ Akzhayik 2 938 5.50% Lokomotiv Astana 2 1424 77.68% 16.82%
4 2010-05-20 62.9 @ Taraz 2 1222 15.45% Aktobe 2 1483 61.10% 23.45%
5 2010-10-15 62.9 @ Aktobe 1 1507 52.34% Lokomotiv Astana 1 1451 22.59% 25.07%
6 2010-06-08 62.3 @ Zhetysu 2 1316 72.68% Okzhetpes 2 1031 7.95% 19.37%
7 2010-08-14 62.0 @ Kairat 2 1153 14.13% Lokomotiv Astana 2 1432 62.89% 22.98%
8 2010-05-01 60.8 @ Taraz 2 1244 38.63% Zhetysu 2 1293 35.42% 25.95%
9 2010-05-12 60.6 @ Akzhayik 2 951 20.72% Kairat 2 1147 54.52% 24.76%
10 2010-05-30 60.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1431 40.59% Tobol 1 1466 33.50% 25.91%
11 2010-06-17 60.6 @ Okzhetpes 2 1032 21.67% Taraz 2 1218 53.41% 24.92%
12 2010-08-14 59.7 @ Okzhetpes 3 995 14.43% Ordabasy 2 1270 62.48% 23.09%
13 2010-09-22 59.5 @ Tobol 1 1490 61.64% Shakter Karagandy 1 1344 15.05% 23.31%
14 2010-06-22 58.6 Lokomotiv Astana 2 1383 19.04% @ Aktobe 1 1477 56.54% 24.42%
15 2010-09-22 58.4 Taraz 3 1213 20.21% @ Zhetysu 2 1294 55.12% 24.66%
16 2010-10-22 58.1 @ Lokomotiv Astana 1 1453 59.48% Shakter Karagandy 1 1330 16.69% 23.83%
17 2010-04-15 57.6 @ Akzhayik 1 932 4.46% Aktobe 1 1462 80.14% 15.40%
18 2010-04-20 57.5 @ Aktobe 1 1457 66.83% Ordabasy 1 1251 11.43% 21.74%
19 2010-08-22 56.8 Akzhayik 2 969 8.01% @ Ordabasy 1 1253 72.57% 19.42%
20 2010-09-30 56.5 @ Lokomotiv Astana 0 1451 40.54% Tobol 0 1487 33.54% 25.91%
21 2010-08-01 56.3 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1390 57.52% Atyrau 1 1286 18.24% 24.24%
22 2010-10-15 56.0 @ Irtysh 2 1311 22.65% Tobol 1 1487 52.27% 25.07%
23 2010-09-30 55.8 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1348 50.27% Irtysh 1 1309 24.42% 25.31%
24 2010-04-03 55.7 @ Akzhayik 1 929 10.22% Atyrau 1 1279 68.73% 21.04%
25 2010-04-09 55.6 Tobol 3 1446 24.10% @ Aktobe 1 1488 50.63% 25.27%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-05-12 24.3 @ Tobol 4 1465 78.96% Okzhetpes 0 1077 4.95% 16.10%
2 2010-06-08 24.6 Shakter Karagandy 3 1431 76.77% @ Akzhayik 0 961 5.91% 17.32%
3 2010-03-28 24.8 @ Taraz 3 1264 75.54% Akzhayik 0 935 6.49% 17.97%
4 2010-05-07 25.2 @ Lokomotiv Astana 2 1371 80.55% Akzhayik 0 954 4.30% 15.15%
5 2010-05-25 25.8 @ Lokomotiv Astana 4 1337 72.65% Okzhetpes 0 1053 7.97% 19.39%
6 2010-06-17 25.8 Tobol 2 1457 78.74% @ Akzhayik 0 953 5.04% 16.22%
7 2010-05-01 26.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1443 77.36% Okzhetpes 0 1084 5.64% 17.00%
8 2010-05-30 26.7 @ Atyrau 2 1293 75.44% Akzhayik 0 965 6.54% 18.02%
9 2010-06-27 26.8 @ Ordabasy 2 1262 74.91% Akzhayik 0 943 6.80% 18.29%
10 2010-06-13 27.0 @ Aktobe 4 1459 84.65% Akzhayik 1 955 2.83% 12.52%
11 2010-06-22 28.0 Zhetysu 2 1331 70.99% @ Akzhayik 0 949 8.88% 20.12%
12 2010-07-17 28.0 @ Aktobe 4 1471 81.91% Okzhetpes 1 1026 3.78% 14.31%
13 2010-09-30 28.6 Zhetysu 3 1279 62.93% @ Akzhayik 0 999 14.10% 22.97%
14 2010-10-22 28.8 @ Zhetysu 2 1295 68.71% Kairat 0 1065 10.23% 21.05%
15 2010-08-14 29.3 @ Irtysh 1 1361 79.07% Akzhayik 0 971 4.90% 16.03%
16 2010-04-03 29.5 @ Lokomotiv Astana 3 1370 62.50% Irtysh 0 1215 14.41% 23.08%
17 2010-04-20 29.7 @ Tobol 3 1470 85.81% Akzhayik 1 938 2.47% 11.72%
18 2010-09-17 29.7 @ Taraz 2 1204 65.24% Akzhayik 0 1018 12.49% 22.28%
19 2010-05-12 30.9 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1421 65.55% Taraz 0 1231 12.28% 22.18%
20 2010-06-08 31.0 @ Lokomotiv Astana 3 1328 57.05% Taraz 0 1229 18.62% 24.33%
21 2010-06-13 31.2 @ Irtysh 1 1322 72.82% Okzhetpes 0 1035 7.87% 19.31%
22 2010-06-27 31.2 Aktobe 2 1461 63.97% @ Kairat 0 1169 13.36% 22.67%
23 2010-09-17 31.3 @ Ordabasy 4 1265 69.86% Okzhetpes 1 1020 9.54% 20.60%
24 2010-08-22 31.4 @ Tobol 3 1478 64.12% Atyrau 0 1304 13.26% 22.62%
25 2010-05-01 31.5 @ Aktobe 1 1482 75.44% Kairat 0 1154 6.54% 18.02%