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2011 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Shakter Karagandy

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Kaisar

13.27 points above expected

27 points · 13.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aktobe

9.74 points below expected

34 points · 43.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zhetysu 22 15 4 3 49 39 16 +23
2 Astana 22 13 6 3 45 35 19 +16
3 Shakter Karagandy 22 13 3 6 42 35 20 +15
4 Aktobe 22 12 5 5 41 39 19 +20
5 Irtysh 22 11 3 8 36 38 34 +4
6 Ordabasy 22 8 7 7 31 28 19 +9
7 Tobol 22 8 3 11 27 30 28 +2
8 Taraz 22 6 3 13 21 15 24 -9
9 Atyrau 22 4 8 10 20 15 30 -15
10 Kairat 22 5 5 12 20 20 37 -17
11 Vostok 22 3 9 10 18 15 32 -17
12 Kaisar 22 4 4 14 16 13 44 -31
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shakter Karagandy 32 19 6 7 42 52 29 +23 — —
2 Zhetysu 32 19 5 8 38 51 27 +24 — —
3 Aktobe 32 15 9 8 34 53 31 +22 — —
4 Astana 32 16 7 9 33 50 37 +13 — —
5 Irtysh 32 15 5 12 32 50 50 0 — —
6 Ordabasy 32 11 10 11 28 41 36 +5 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tobol 32 13 3 16 29 46 46 0 — —
2 Kaisar 32 10 5 17 27 29 53 -24 — —
3 Taraz 32 10 5 17 25 30 39 -9 — —
4 Atyrau 32 8 10 14 24 28 43 -15 — —
5 Kairat 32 8 8 16 22 30 49 -19 — —
6 Vostok 32 6 11 15 20 25 45 -20 — —

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kaisar 27 13.73 +13.27
2 Shakter Karagandy 42 36.07 +5.93
3 Kairat 22 19.97 +2.03
4 Zhetysu 38 37.43 +0.57
5 Vostok 20 20.91 -0.91

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aktobe 34 43.74 -9.74
2 Tobol 29 37.68 -8.68
3 Astana 33 38.52 -5.52
4 Atyrau 24 28.25 -4.25
5 Ordabasy 28 30.71 -2.71

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zhetysu 7 Jul 3 – Aug 20 1 in 32
2 Ordabasy 4 Apr 9 – Apr 30 1 in 25
3 Vostok 2 Jul 16 – Jul 23 1 in 11
4 Shakter Karagandy 3 Jun 12 – Jun 19 1 in 11
5 Astana 3 Mar 12 – Mar 31 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zhetysu 3 Sep 10 – Sep 24 1 in 31
2 Tobol 4 Apr 30 – May 21 1 in 31
3 Ordabasy 4 Mar 12 – Apr 4 1 in 30
4 Astana 3 Jul 30 – Aug 20 1 in 14
5 Kaisar 7 Apr 9 – May 21 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zhetysu 10 Mar 17 – May 21 1 in 68
2 Astana 11 Mar 12 – May 21 1 in 47
3 Vostok 5 Jul 16 – Aug 20 1 in 31
4 Atyrau 5 Apr 16 – May 15 1 in 21
5 Shakter Karagandy 6 Sep 17 – Oct 29 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vostok 18 Mar 12 – Jul 11 1 in 97
2 Atyrau 7 Jul 3 – Aug 20 1 in 87
3 Aktobe 7 Aug 20 – Oct 15 1 in 50
4 Ordabasy 6 Jun 19 – Jul 23 1 in 26
5 Kairat 7 Jul 16 – Sep 10 1 in 23

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shakter Karagandy 1437 63 +53 11 7.0 +4.0
Zhetysu 1380 62 -20 6 7.2 -1.2
Astana 1335 55 -38 6 7.4 -1.4
Aktobe 1420 54 +3 7 7.3 -0.3
Irtysh 1320 50 +6 7 5.6 +1.4
Ordabasy 1311 43 -5 5 7.1 -2.1
Tobol 1225 42 -24 9 9.4 -0.4
Kaisar 1132 35 +29 9 6.5 +2.5
Taraz 1172 35 -22 5 7.8 -2.8
Atyrau 1144 34 +14 7 6.4 +0.6
Kairat 1127 32 -11 7 7.0 -0.0
Vostok 1119 29 +13 6 4.7 +1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AST ATY IRT KAI KAI ORD SK TAR TOB VOS ZHE
Aktobe —
0-2-2
6.32
1-1-0
4.28
3-1-0
6.86
1-0-1
4.60
2-0-0
4.96
4-0-0
7.01
0-1-3
6.52
1-1-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
4.64
0-2-2
6.08
Astana
2-2-0
4.78
—
1-1-0
3.57
1-1-2
6.39
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.64
1-1-2
6.66
1-1-2
5.52
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
2.97
1-1-0
4.29
1-0-3
5.52
Atyrau
0-1-1
1.31
0-1-1
1.99
—
1-0-1
2.16
1-2-1
6.08
0-1-3
7.30
0-2-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.78
1-1-2
5.74
1-1-2
3.64
2-1-1
6.32
1-0-1
1.85
Irtysh
0-1-3
4.25
2-1-1
4.70
1-0-1
3.40
—
1-1-0
3.81
1-0-1
4.52
2-1-1
5.95
2-0-2
4.97
2-0-0
3.35
1-0-1
2.56
2-0-0
3.95
1-1-2
4.85
Kairat
1-0-1
1.03
0-0-2
1.40
1-2-1
5.03
0-1-1
1.77
—
1-1-2
6.55
0-0-2
1.99
1-0-1
1.49
1-1-2
4.89
1-1-2
3.10
1-2-1
5.52
1-0-1
1.39
Kaisar
0-0-2
0.72
0-0-2
1.00
3-1-0
3.85
1-0-1
1.10
2-1-1
4.55
—
0-1-1
1.32
0-0-2
1.08
2-0-2
3.78
1-0-3
2.60
1-2-1
4.64
0-0-2
1.08
Ordabasy
0-0-4
4.14
2-1-1
4.45
0-2-0
3.04
1-1-2
5.15
2-0-0
3.57
1-1-0
4.28
—
1-3-0
4.39
0-1-1
3.24
2-0-0
1.96
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-3
4.38
Shakter Karagandy
3-1-0
4.60
2-1-1
5.59
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-2
6.12
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
4.53
0-3-1
6.72
—
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
2.39
2-0-0
4.21
2-1-1
5.32
Taraz
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.85
2-1-1
5.36
0-0-2
2.21
2-1-1
6.21
2-0-2
7.34
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
1.86
—
1-0-3
4.04
2-1-1
6.67
0-0-2
2.02
Tobol
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
2.58
2-1-1
7.49
1-0-1
2.98
2-1-1
8.06
3-0-1
8.62
0-0-2
3.59
0-0-2
3.17
3-0-1
7.09
—
1-1-2
8.75
1-0-1
2.82
Vostok
0-1-1
0.99
0-1-1
1.30
1-1-2
4.79
0-0-2
1.62
1-2-1
5.59
1-2-1
6.47
0-1-1
2.10
0-0-2
1.39
1-1-2
4.43
2-1-1
2.46
—
0-1-1
1.29
Zhetysu
2-2-0
5.04
3-0-1
5.59
1-0-1
3.70
2-1-1
6.26
1-0-1
4.20
2-0-0
4.53
3-0-1
6.74
1-1-2
5.77
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
4.31
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +5.3
Allowed 0.48 -5.3
Differential 0.81 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%10.16%7.29%4.69%0.52%0.26%32.29%
110.16%9.38%6.77%3.12%1.30%1.04%31.77%
27.29%6.77%2.60%2.34%1.30%0.26%20.57%
34.69%3.12%2.34%0.52%——10.68%
40.52%1.30%1.30%———3.12%
5+0.26%1.04%0.26%———1.56%
Total32.29%31.77%20.57%10.68%3.12%1.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.26 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.81
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
13.12%15.62%3.12%———21.88%
215.62%9.38%—6.25%——31.25%
36.25%—3.12%———9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
Total37.50%37.50%15.62%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 0.97 +0.69
SD 1.68 0.97 1.80
CV 1.01 1.00 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%6.25%6.25%——3.12%31.25%
115.62%6.25%3.12%6.25%——31.25%
26.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
3—3.12%9.38%———12.50%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+—9.38%————9.38%
Total37.50%28.12%21.88%9.38%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.16 +0.41
SD 1.66 1.22 1.98
CV 1.07 1.06 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%15.62%6.25%——43.75%
19.38%15.62%——3.12%—28.12%
23.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
33.12%—————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%37.50%21.88%9.38%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.34 -0.47
SD 0.91 1.15 1.48
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%3.12%9.38%——28.12%
16.25%6.25%—3.12%3.12%3.12%21.88%
23.12%12.50%—6.25%—3.12%25.00%
36.25%9.38%3.12%———18.75%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%37.50%6.25%18.75%3.12%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.66 2.30
CV 0.86 1.07 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%12.50%9.38%——40.62%
16.25%12.50%3.12%6.25%—3.12%31.25%
26.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%28.12%18.75%18.75%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.53 -0.59
SD 0.95 1.44 1.83
CV 1.01 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%12.50%9.38%3.12%—40.62%
112.50%6.25%6.25%—3.12%6.25%34.38%
215.62%———6.25%—21.88%
3———————
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total37.50%15.62%18.75%9.38%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.66 -0.75
SD 0.96 1.73 2.09
CV 1.06 1.05 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
16.25%15.62%9.38%———31.25%
23.12%6.25%6.25%—3.12%—18.75%
36.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%40.62%25.00%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.12 +0.16
SD 1.17 0.98 1.59
CV 0.91 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
112.50%3.12%9.38%———25.00%
215.62%15.62%6.25%———37.50%
36.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total40.62%31.25%25.00%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.91 +0.72
SD 1.13 0.89 1.40
CV 0.69 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%25.00%6.25%6.25%——40.62%
115.62%12.50%9.38%3.12%——40.62%
2—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%46.88%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.22 -0.28
SD 1.08 0.94 1.46
CV 1.15 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
16.25%—12.50%9.38%6.25%—34.38%
26.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
39.38%6.25%————15.62%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total28.12%28.12%21.88%15.62%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.24 1.90
CV 0.85 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%3.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%—40.62%
19.38%9.38%15.62%9.38%——43.75%
23.12%3.12%6.25%———12.50%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%18.75%31.25%15.62%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.41 -0.62
SD 0.79 1.19 1.43
CV 1.01 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%3.12%———18.75%
118.75%9.38%9.38%———37.50%
29.38%6.25%————15.62%
39.38%—9.38%3.12%——21.88%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+———————
Total43.75%31.25%21.88%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 0.84 +0.75
SD 1.21 0.88 1.48
CV 0.76 1.05 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shakter Karagandy 1437 42 36.07 +5.93 91.0% 25 27 32 36 40 44 52
Aktobe 1420 34 43.74 -9.74 35.0% 31 34 40 43 47 54 59
Zhetysu 1380 38 37.43 +0.57 99.0% 27 28 33 37 41 48 53
Astana 1335 33 38.52 -5.52 89.0% 23 28 35 39 42 48 51
Irtysh 1320 32 34.07 -2.07 63.0% 12 22 30 33 38 44 55
Ordabasy 1311 28 30.71 -2.71 62.0% 19 24 27 30 34 39 43
Tobol 1225 29 37.68 -8.68 3.0% 22 28 33 38 42 47 54
Taraz 1172 25 27.08 -2.08 11.0% 17 19 24 27 30 34 43
Atyrau 1144 24 28.25 -4.25 8.0% 14 18 24 28 32 37 40
Kaisar 1132 27 13.73 +13.27 75.0% 5 8 10 13 16 21 25
Kairat 1127 22 19.97 +2.03 58.0% 8 11 16 19 24 28 32
Vostok 1119 20 20.91 -0.91 37.0% 8 12 17 20 24 31 35

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.25%
Strong Edge
54.69%21.88%23.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
205 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0112.33600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.67 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.55+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
8%
Shakter Karagandy, 5th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.12/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.4 * Some Luck: 4.4 to 6.61 * Lucky: 6.61 to 8.81 * Wild Swing: 8.81 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.34 * Way Off: 2.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.16 points
Some Luck
05.5014
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Off
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.00%
Zhetysu
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
Tobol
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 131.67
0.86
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
79%
Clear Edge
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
90%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Slight Separation
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.69
Near-Lock
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.20
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.77
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1180.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Shakter Karagandy8.00%14.00%9.00%20.00%18.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%———
Zhetysu14.00%17.00%18.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%8.00%3.00%————
Aktobe49.00%20.00%14.00%6.00%9.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Astana14.00%19.00%19.00%21.00%11.00%7.00%1.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%——
Irtysh4.00%8.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%17.00%10.00%13.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%—
Tobol9.00%18.00%20.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%—1.00%—
Ordabasy1.00%4.00%2.00%7.00%13.00%10.00%22.00%28.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%—
Kaisar————————2.00%8.00%20.00%70.00%
Taraz——1.00%2.00%2.00%11.00%21.00%12.00%26.00%18.00%6.00%1.00%
Atyrau1.00%—4.00%5.00%9.00%8.00%14.00%20.00%20.00%12.00%6.00%1.00%
Kairat—————1.00%5.00%5.00%12.00%29.00%33.00%15.00%
Vostok————1.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%18.00%27.00%31.00%13.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Aktobe 100% —
Astana 100% —
Irtysh 100% —
Shakter Karagandy 100% —
Tobol 100% —
Zhetysu 100% —
Ordabasy 99.00% 1.00%
Taraz 98.00% 2.00%
Atyrau 94.00% 6.00%
Vostok 87.00% 13.00%
Kairat 85.00% 15.00%
Kaisar 37.00% 63.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-03-06 Atyrau W 2-031.1 1430 1255 69.76% 19.38% 10.86%+1.40 +6.9 3
2011-03-06 @ Aktobe L 0-231.1 1255 1430 10.86% 19.38% 69.76%-1.40 -6.9 0
2011-03-06 Irtysh L 0-144.5 1236 1309 43.97% 23.13% 32.91%+0.19 -12.6 0
2011-03-06 @ Taraz W 1-044.5 1309 1236 32.91% 23.13% 43.97%-0.19 +12.6 3
2011-03-06 Kairat W 1-036.9 1171 1144 56.29% 22.22% 21.48%+0.68 +7.0 3
2011-03-06 @ Vostok L 0-136.9 1144 1171 21.48% 22.22% 56.29%-0.68 -7.0 0
2011-03-06 Tobol W 1-045.6 1220 1392 30.35% 23.02% 46.63%-0.29 +13.2 3
2011-03-06 @ Ordabasy L 0-145.6 1392 1220 46.63% 23.02% 30.35%+0.29 -13.3 0
2011-03-06 Zhetysu L 0-246.5 1356 1270 62.31% 21.27% 16.42%+0.96 -32.4 0
2011-03-06 @ Astana W 2-046.5 1270 1356 16.42% 21.27% 62.31%-0.96 +32.4 3
2011-03-07 Kaisar W 2-028.3 1283 1053 73.63% 18.01% 8.36%+1.67 +5.2 3
2011-03-07 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-228.3 1053 1283 8.36% 18.01% 73.63%-1.67 -5.2 0
2011-03-12 Aktobe L 2-355.0 1321 1437 37.98% 23.21% 38.81%-0.01 -10.1 3
2011-03-12 @ Irtysh W 3-255.0 1437 1321 38.81% 23.21% 37.98%+0.01 +10.0 6
2011-03-12 Kairat L 0-150.6 1303 1137 69.08% 19.59% 11.33%+1.35 -18.9 3
2011-03-12 @ Zhetysu W 1-050.6 1137 1303 11.33% 19.59% 69.08%-1.35 +18.9 3
2011-03-12 Ordabasy W 1-035.6 1324 1233 62.75% 21.18% 16.07%+0.99 +5.4 3
2011-03-12 @ Astana L 0-135.6 1233 1324 16.07% 21.18% 62.75%-0.99 -5.4 3
2011-03-12 Shakter Karagandy W 2-036.3 1248 1288 48.37% 22.93% 28.70%+0.35 +17.0 3
2011-03-12 @ Atyrau L 0-236.3 1288 1248 28.70% 22.93% 48.37%-0.35 -17.0 3
2011-03-12 Taraz W 3-028.5 1379 1224 68.27% 19.83% 11.90%+1.30 +11.0 3
2011-03-12 @ Tobol L 0-328.5 1224 1379 11.90% 19.83% 68.27%-1.30 -11.0 0
2011-03-12 Vostok D 1-154.8 1047 1178 35.81% 23.19% 41.00%-0.09 +0.3 1
2011-03-12 @ Kaisar D 1-154.8 1178 1047 41.00% 23.19% 35.81%+0.09 -0.3 4
2011-03-17 Astana L 1-248.1 1213 1329 37.79% 23.21% 39.00%-0.02 -10.5 0
2011-03-17 @ Taraz W 2-148.1 1329 1213 39.00% 23.21% 37.79%+0.02 +10.5 6
2011-03-17 Atyrau D 2-260.4 1178 1265 41.91% 23.18% 34.91%+0.12 -0.3 5
2011-03-17 @ Vostok D 2-260.4 1265 1178 34.91% 23.18% 41.91%-0.12 +0.3 4
2011-03-17 Irtysh W 3-034.4 1271 1311 48.25% 22.94% 28.81%+0.35 +24.7 6
2011-03-17 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-334.4 1311 1271 28.81% 22.94% 48.25%-0.35 -24.7 3
2011-03-17 Kaisar D 0-050.7 1156 1048 64.38% 20.83% 14.79%+1.08 -3.7 4
2011-03-17 @ Kairat D 0-050.7 1048 1156 14.79% 20.83% 64.38%-1.08 +3.7 2
2011-03-17 Tobol W 2-145.9 1447 1390 59.51% 21.77% 18.72%+0.83 +5.8 9
2011-03-17 @ Aktobe L 1-245.9 1390 1447 18.72% 21.77% 59.51%-0.83 -5.8 3
2011-03-17 Zhetysu L 0-145.0 1228 1284 46.22% 23.04% 30.74%+0.27 -13.2 3
2011-03-17 @ Ordabasy W 1-045.0 1284 1228 30.74% 23.04% 46.22%-0.27 +13.2 6
2011-03-31 Aktobe W 1-045.7 1340 1453 38.32% 23.21% 38.48%+0.00 +11.4 9
2011-03-31 @ Astana L 0-145.7 1453 1340 38.48% 23.21% 38.32%+0.00 -11.3 9
2011-03-31 Kairat D 2-261.1 1266 1152 64.80% 20.74% 14.46%+1.10 -2.5 5
2011-03-31 @ Atyrau D 2-261.1 1152 1266 14.46% 20.74% 64.80%-1.10 +2.5 5
2011-03-31 Kaisar W 3-025.8 1297 1051 74.63% 17.60% 7.77%+1.74 +7.0 9
2011-03-31 @ Zhetysu L 0-325.8 1051 1297 7.77% 17.60% 74.63%-1.74 -7.0 2
2011-03-31 Shakter Karagandy L 1-256.0 1384 1296 62.53% 21.23% 16.25%+0.98 -16.2 3
2011-03-31 @ Tobol W 2-156.0 1296 1384 16.25% 21.23% 62.53%-0.98 +16.2 9
2011-03-31 Taraz L 0-147.1 1215 1202 54.73% 22.41% 22.86%+0.61 -15.2 3
2011-03-31 @ Ordabasy W 1-047.1 1202 1215 22.86% 22.41% 54.73%-0.61 +15.2 3
2011-03-31 Vostok W 3-136.7 1287 1177 64.46% 20.82% 14.73%+1.08 +8.1 6
2011-03-31 @ Irtysh L 1-336.7 1177 1287 14.73% 20.82% 64.46%-1.08 -8.1 5
2011-04-04 Astana D 0-051.5 1312 1351 48.43% 22.93% 28.64%+0.36 -1.4 10
2011-04-04 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-051.5 1351 1312 28.64% 22.93% 48.43%-0.36 +1.4 10
2011-04-04 Atyrau W 1-046.4 1044 1263 24.84% 22.62% 52.54%-0.52 +14.7 5
2011-04-04 @ Kaisar L 0-146.4 1263 1044 52.54% 22.62% 24.84%+0.52 -14.7 5
2011-04-04 Irtysh L 1-343.3 1155 1295 34.54% 23.17% 42.29%-0.13 -17.0 5
2011-04-04 @ Kairat W 3-143.3 1295 1155 42.29% 23.17% 34.54%+0.13 +17.0 9
2011-04-04 Ordabasy W 2-138.1 1441 1200 74.37% 17.71% 7.92%+1.72 +2.5 12
2011-04-04 @ Aktobe L 1-238.1 1200 1441 7.92% 17.71% 74.37%-1.72 -2.5 3
2011-04-04 Tobol D 2-260.9 1169 1367 27.16% 22.83% 50.01%-0.42 +1.0 6
2011-04-04 @ Vostok D 2-260.9 1367 1169 50.01% 22.83% 27.16%+0.42 -1.0 4
2011-04-04 Zhetysu L 0-143.8 1217 1304 42.00% 23.17% 34.82%+0.12 -12.2 3
2011-04-04 @ Taraz W 1-043.8 1304 1217 34.82% 23.17% 42.00%-0.12 +12.2 12
2011-04-09 Aktobe L 0-235.1 1205 1444 22.75% 22.39% 54.86%-0.62 -13.9 3
2011-04-09 @ Taraz W 2-035.1 1444 1205 54.86% 22.39% 22.75%+0.62 +13.9 15
2011-04-09 Atyrau W 2-032.8 1316 1248 60.59% 21.59% 17.83%+0.88 +11.2 15
2011-04-09 @ Zhetysu L 0-232.8 1248 1316 17.83% 21.59% 60.59%-0.88 -11.2 5
2011-04-09 Kairat W 3-134.1 1366 1138 73.53% 18.05% 8.43%+1.66 +4.6 7
2011-04-09 @ Tobol L 1-334.1 1138 1366 8.43% 18.05% 73.53%-1.66 -4.6 5
2011-04-09 Kaisar W 4-130.3 1312 1059 75.06% 17.42% 7.51%+1.78 +5.7 12
2011-04-09 @ Irtysh L 1-430.3 1059 1312 7.51% 17.42% 75.06%-1.78 -5.7 5
2011-04-09 Shakter Karagandy W 1-042.7 1197 1311 38.23% 23.21% 38.56%-0.01 +11.4 6
2011-04-09 @ Ordabasy L 0-142.7 1311 1197 38.56% 23.21% 38.23%+0.01 -11.4 10
2011-04-09 Vostok W 2-029.7 1352 1170 70.31% 19.20% 10.49%+1.43 +6.6 13
2011-04-09 @ Astana L 0-229.7 1170 1352 10.49% 19.20% 70.31%-1.43 -6.6 6
2011-04-16 Astana L 2-348.3 1133 1359 24.09% 22.55% 53.36%-0.55 -6.9 5
2011-04-16 @ Kairat W 3-248.3 1359 1133 53.36% 22.55% 24.09%+0.55 +7.0 16
2011-04-16 Irtysh W 1-041.5 1237 1318 42.93% 23.15% 33.92%+0.16 +10.3 8
2011-04-16 @ Atyrau L 0-141.5 1318 1237 33.92% 23.15% 42.93%-0.16 -10.3 12
2011-04-16 Ordabasy L 0-438.8 1164 1208 47.71% 22.97% 29.32%+0.33 -48.4 6
2011-04-16 @ Vostok W 4-038.8 1208 1164 29.32% 22.97% 47.71%-0.33 +48.4 9
2011-04-16 Taraz W 3-029.1 1299 1191 64.35% 20.84% 14.81%+1.07 +13.6 13
2011-04-16 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-329.1 1191 1299 14.81% 20.84% 64.35%-1.07 -13.6 3
2011-04-16 Tobol L 0-329.4 1053 1371 15.89% 21.13% 62.98%-1.00 -14.6 5
2011-04-16 @ Kaisar W 3-029.4 1371 1053 62.98% 21.13% 15.89%+1.00 +14.6 10
2011-04-16 Zhetysu D 1-158.9 1458 1328 66.25% 20.38% 13.37%+1.18 -3.5 16
2011-04-16 @ Aktobe D 1-158.9 1328 1458 13.37% 20.38% 66.25%-1.18 +3.5 16
2011-04-24 Atyrau D 0-052.0 1386 1248 66.91% 20.21% 12.88%+1.22 -4.0 11
2011-04-24 @ Tobol D 0-052.0 1248 1386 12.88% 20.21% 66.91%-1.22 +4.0 9
2011-04-24 Irtysh D 1-156.2 1331 1307 55.96% 22.26% 21.77%+0.66 -2.2 17
2011-04-24 @ Zhetysu D 1-156.2 1307 1331 21.77% 22.26% 55.96%-0.66 +2.2 13
2011-04-24 Kairat W 2-030.6 1257 1126 66.28% 20.38% 13.35%+1.18 +8.5 12
2011-04-24 @ Ordabasy L 0-230.6 1126 1257 13.35% 20.38% 66.28%-1.18 -8.5 5
2011-04-24 Kaisar W 5-127.3 1366 1039 79.29% 15.44% 5.27%+2.14 +5.0 19
2011-04-24 @ Astana L 1-527.3 1039 1366 5.27% 15.44% 79.29%-2.14 -5.0 5
2011-04-24 Shakter Karagandy L 0-152.9 1454 1313 67.17% 20.14% 12.69%+1.24 -18.4 16
2011-04-24 @ Aktobe W 1-052.9 1313 1454 12.69% 20.14% 67.17%-1.24 +18.4 16
2011-04-24 Vostok W 3-137.8 1178 1115 60.01% 21.68% 18.31%+0.85 +9.9 6
2011-04-24 @ Taraz L 1-337.8 1115 1178 18.31% 21.68% 60.01%-0.85 -9.9 6
2011-04-30 Aktobe D 0-051.2 1106 1436 14.99% 20.89% 64.12%-1.06 +3.6 7
2011-04-30 @ Vostok D 0-051.2 1436 1106 64.12% 20.89% 14.99%+1.06 -3.6 17
2011-04-30 Astana D 0-051.0 1252 1371 37.39% 23.21% 39.40%-0.03 +0.1 10
2011-04-30 @ Atyrau D 0-051.0 1371 1252 39.40% 23.21% 37.39%+0.03 -0.1 20
2011-04-30 Ordabasy L 1-243.1 1034 1265 23.48% 22.48% 54.04%-0.58 -7.2 5
2011-04-30 @ Kaisar W 2-143.1 1265 1034 54.04% 22.48% 23.48%+0.58 +7.2 15
2011-04-30 Taraz W 1-040.5 1118 1187 44.40% 23.11% 32.49%+0.21 +10.0 8
2011-04-30 @ Kairat L 0-140.5 1187 1118 32.49% 23.11% 44.40%-0.21 -9.9 6
2011-04-30 Tobol W 3-252.4 1309 1382 44.05% 23.12% 32.83%+0.20 +9.0 16
2011-04-30 @ Irtysh L 2-352.4 1382 1309 32.83% 23.12% 44.05%-0.20 -9.0 11
2011-04-30 Zhetysu D 3-365.3 1331 1329 53.52% 22.53% 23.94%+0.56 -1.2 17
2011-04-30 @ Shakter Karagandy D 3-365.3 1329 1331 23.94% 22.53% 53.52%-0.56 +1.2 18
2011-05-07 Atyrau D 1-155.5 1272 1252 55.62% 22.30% 22.07%+0.65 -2.1 16
2011-05-07 @ Ordabasy D 1-155.5 1252 1272 22.07% 22.30% 55.62%-0.65 +2.1 11
2011-05-07 Irtysh D 0-052.1 1371 1318 59.03% 21.84% 19.13%+0.80 -2.9 21
2011-05-07 @ Astana D 0-052.1 1318 1371 19.13% 21.84% 59.03%-0.80 +2.9 17
2011-05-07 Kairat W 3-025.3 1432 1128 78.06% 16.06% 5.88%+2.03 +5.2 20
2011-05-07 @ Aktobe L 0-325.3 1128 1432 5.88% 16.06% 78.06%-2.03 -5.2 8
2011-05-07 Kaisar W 1-033.4 1178 1027 67.94% 19.93% 12.13%+1.28 +4.1 9
2011-05-07 @ Taraz L 0-133.4 1027 1178 12.13% 19.93% 67.94%-1.28 -4.1 5
2011-05-07 Tobol W 4-140.2 1330 1373 47.98% 22.95% 29.06%+0.34 +21.0 21
2011-05-07 @ Zhetysu L 1-440.2 1373 1330 29.06% 22.95% 47.98%-0.34 -21.0 11
2011-05-07 Vostok W 2-028.6 1330 1109 73.03% 18.24% 8.73%+1.62 +5.5 20
2011-05-07 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-228.6 1109 1330 8.73% 18.24% 73.03%-1.62 -5.5 7
2011-05-15 Aktobe L 0-229.3 1023 1437 10.10% 19.01% 70.89%-1.47 -6.4 5
2011-05-15 @ Kaisar W 2-029.3 1437 1023 70.89% 19.01% 10.10%+1.47 +6.4 23
2011-05-15 Astana L 0-148.1 1352 1368 51.28% 22.73% 25.99%+0.47 -14.4 11
2011-05-15 @ Tobol W 1-048.1 1368 1352 25.99% 22.73% 51.28%-0.47 +14.4 24
2011-05-15 Ordabasy W 2-033.5 1321 1270 58.88% 21.87% 19.26%+0.80 +12.0 20
2011-05-15 @ Irtysh L 0-233.5 1270 1321 19.26% 21.87% 58.88%-0.80 -12.0 16
2011-05-15 Shakter Karagandy W 2-151.9 1123 1336 25.48% 22.69% 51.83%-0.49 +13.7 11
2011-05-15 @ Kairat L 1-251.9 1336 1123 51.83% 22.69% 25.48%+0.49 -13.7 20
2011-05-15 Taraz W 1-035.7 1254 1182 61.02% 21.51% 17.47%+0.90 +5.8 14
2011-05-15 @ Atyrau L 0-135.7 1182 1254 17.47% 21.51% 61.02%-0.90 -5.8 9
2011-05-15 Zhetysu D 0-050.5 1104 1351 21.88% 22.28% 55.84%-0.66 +2.4 8
2011-05-15 @ Vostok D 0-050.5 1351 1104 55.84% 22.28% 21.88%+0.66 -2.4 22
2011-05-21 Atyrau W 3-035.6 1176 1260 42.42% 23.17% 34.41%+0.14 +28.5 12
2011-05-21 @ Taraz L 0-335.6 1260 1176 34.41% 23.17% 42.42%-0.14 -28.5 14
2011-05-21 Irtysh W 3-035.8 1258 1333 43.65% 23.13% 33.21%+0.18 +27.7 19
2011-05-21 @ Ordabasy L 0-335.8 1333 1258 33.21% 23.13% 43.65%-0.18 -27.7 20
2011-05-21 Kairat W 4-238.4 1322 1136 70.56% 19.12% 10.32%+1.45 +5.1 23
2011-05-21 @ Shakter Karagandy L 2-438.4 1136 1322 10.32% 19.12% 70.56%-1.45 -5.1 11
2011-05-21 Kaisar W 6-125.3 1444 1016 83.98% 12.79% 3.23%+2.63 +3.6 26
2011-05-21 @ Aktobe L 1-625.3 1016 1444 3.23% 12.79% 83.98%-2.63 -3.5 5
2011-05-21 Tobol W 3-140.4 1382 1337 58.27% 21.96% 19.77%+0.77 +10.7 27
2011-05-21 @ Astana L 1-340.4 1337 1382 19.77% 21.96% 58.27%-0.77 -10.7 11
2011-05-21 Vostok W 3-026.0 1349 1106 74.42% 17.69% 7.89%+1.73 +7.1 25
2011-05-21 @ Zhetysu L 0-326.0 1106 1349 7.89% 17.69% 74.42%-1.73 -7.1 8
2011-05-26 Aktobe W 3-044.0 1131 1447 16.02% 21.17% 62.82%-0.99 +47.4 14
2011-05-26 @ Kairat L 0-344.0 1447 1131 62.82% 21.17% 16.02%+0.99 -47.4 26
2011-05-26 Astana W 5-037.0 1306 1393 41.93% 23.18% 34.89%+0.12 +46.4 23
2011-05-26 @ Irtysh L 0-537.0 1393 1306 34.89% 23.18% 41.93%-0.12 -46.4 27
2011-05-26 Ordabasy D 1-155.3 1231 1286 46.37% 23.04% 30.59%+0.28 -1.0 15
2011-05-26 @ Atyrau D 1-155.3 1286 1231 30.59% 23.04% 46.37%-0.28 +1.0 20
2011-05-26 Shakter Karagandy L 1-243.4 1099 1327 23.85% 22.52% 53.63%-0.56 -7.3 8
2011-05-26 @ Vostok W 2-143.4 1327 1099 53.63% 22.52% 23.85%+0.56 +7.2 26
2011-05-26 Taraz W 1-045.4 1013 1204 27.92% 22.88% 49.20%-0.39 +13.9 8
2011-05-26 @ Kaisar L 0-145.4 1204 1013 49.20% 22.88% 27.92%+0.39 -13.9 12
2011-05-26 Zhetysu W 1-040.5 1327 1356 49.69% 22.85% 27.46%+0.41 +8.7 14
2011-05-26 @ Tobol L 0-140.5 1356 1327 27.46% 22.85% 49.69%-0.41 -8.7 25
2011-06-08 Atyrau W 3-245.1 1347 1230 65.08% 20.67% 14.25%+1.11 +4.3 30
2011-06-08 @ Astana L 2-345.1 1230 1347 14.25% 20.67% 65.08%-1.11 -4.3 15
2011-06-08 Irtysh W 4-139.0 1335 1352 51.23% 22.74% 26.04%+0.47 +19.2 17
2011-06-08 @ Tobol L 1-439.0 1352 1335 26.04% 22.74% 51.23%-0.47 -19.2 23
2011-06-08 Kairat W 1-037.5 1190 1179 54.60% 22.42% 22.98%+0.60 +7.5 15
2011-06-08 @ Taraz L 0-137.5 1179 1190 22.98% 22.42% 54.60%-0.60 -7.5 14
2011-06-08 Kaisar D 1-156.6 1287 1027 75.54% 17.22% 7.24%+1.82 -4.6 21
2011-06-08 @ Ordabasy D 1-156.6 1027 1287 7.24% 17.22% 75.54%-1.82 +4.6 9
2011-06-08 Shakter Karagandy W 1-039.0 1347 1334 54.74% 22.41% 22.86%+0.61 +7.4 28
2011-06-08 @ Zhetysu L 0-139.0 1334 1347 22.86% 22.41% 54.74%-0.61 -7.4 26
2011-06-08 Vostok W 3-025.0 1400 1092 78.27% 15.95% 5.77%+2.05 +5.1 29
2011-06-08 @ Aktobe L 0-325.0 1092 1400 5.77% 15.95% 78.27%-2.05 -5.1 8
2011-06-12 Aktobe W 1-043.1 1327 1405 43.23% 23.15% 33.63%+0.17 +10.2 29
2011-06-12 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-143.1 1405 1327 33.63% 23.15% 43.23%-0.17 -10.2 29
2011-06-12 Astana L 2-440.4 1031 1351 15.73% 21.09% 63.17%-1.01 -7.7 9
2011-06-12 @ Kaisar W 4-240.4 1351 1031 63.17% 21.09% 15.73%+1.01 +7.7 33
2011-06-12 Ordabasy L 0-336.9 1171 1282 38.58% 23.21% 38.21%+0.01 -31.1 14
2011-06-12 @ Kairat W 3-036.9 1282 1171 38.21% 23.21% 38.58%-0.01 +31.1 24
2011-06-12 Taraz D 1-154.8 1087 1198 38.56% 23.21% 38.23%+0.01 -0.0 9
2011-06-12 @ Vostok D 1-154.8 1198 1087 38.23% 23.21% 38.56%-0.01 +0.0 16
2011-06-12 Tobol L 0-238.9 1226 1354 36.11% 23.19% 40.69%-0.08 -20.4 15
2011-06-12 @ Atyrau W 2-038.9 1354 1226 40.69% 23.19% 36.11%+0.08 +20.4 20
2011-06-12 Zhetysu L 2-357.6 1333 1354 50.63% 22.78% 26.59%+0.44 -12.7 23
2011-06-12 @ Irtysh W 3-257.6 1354 1333 26.59% 22.78% 50.63%-0.44 +12.7 31
2011-06-16 Tobol W 2-037.7 1337 1375 48.60% 22.92% 28.48%+0.36 +16.8 32
2011-06-16 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-237.7 1375 1337 28.48% 22.92% 48.60%-0.36 -16.8 20
2011-06-18 Atyrau W 3-029.1 1320 1206 64.92% 20.71% 14.37%+1.11 +13.2 26
2011-06-18 @ Irtysh L 0-329.1 1206 1320 14.37% 20.71% 64.92%-1.11 -13.2 15
2011-06-19 Aktobe W 3-251.7 1367 1395 49.91% 22.83% 27.26%+0.41 +7.7 34
2011-06-19 @ Zhetysu L 2-351.7 1395 1367 27.26% 22.83% 49.91%-0.41 -7.7 29
2011-06-19 Kairat W 6-128.7 1359 1140 72.86% 18.30% 8.84%+1.61 +10.7 36
2011-06-19 @ Astana L 1-628.7 1140 1359 8.84% 18.30% 72.86%-1.61 -10.7 14
2011-06-19 Kaisar W 3-024.3 1358 1024 79.67% 15.25% 5.09%+2.18 +4.4 23
2011-06-19 @ Tobol L 0-324.3 1024 1358 5.09% 15.25% 79.67%-2.18 -4.4 9
2011-06-19 Shakter Karagandy L 0-141.0 1198 1354 32.38% 23.11% 44.51%-0.21 -9.9 16
2011-06-19 @ Taraz W 1-041.0 1354 1198 44.51% 23.11% 32.38%+0.21 +9.9 35
2011-06-19 Vostok D 0-051.7 1314 1087 73.42% 18.09% 8.49%+1.65 -4.9 25
2011-06-19 @ Ordabasy D 0-051.7 1087 1314 8.49% 18.09% 73.42%-1.65 +4.9 10
2011-06-25 Astana D 0-050.7 1092 1369 19.07% 21.83% 59.10%-0.81 +2.9 11
2011-06-25 @ Vostok D 0-050.7 1369 1092 59.10% 21.83% 19.07%+0.81 -2.9 37
2011-06-25 Irtysh W 1-049.0 1019 1333 16.13% 21.20% 62.67%-0.98 +17.3 12
2011-06-25 @ Kaisar L 0-149.0 1333 1019 62.67% 21.20% 16.13%+0.98 -17.3 26
2011-06-25 Ordabasy D 2-262.1 1364 1309 59.31% 21.80% 18.89%+0.82 -2.0 36
2011-06-25 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-262.1 1309 1364 18.89% 21.80% 59.31%-0.82 +2.0 26
2011-06-25 Taraz D 0-052.0 1387 1188 71.53% 18.79% 9.68%+1.52 -4.7 30
2011-06-25 @ Aktobe D 0-052.0 1188 1387 9.68% 18.79% 71.53%-1.52 +4.7 17
2011-06-25 Tobol D 0-050.6 1129 1362 23.34% 22.46% 54.20%-0.59 +2.2 15
2011-06-25 @ Kairat D 0-050.6 1362 1129 54.20% 22.46% 23.34%+0.59 -2.2 24
2011-06-25 Zhetysu W 1-045.7 1192 1375 29.01% 22.95% 48.04%-0.34 +13.6 18
2011-06-25 @ Atyrau L 0-145.7 1375 1192 48.04% 22.95% 29.01%+0.34 -13.6 34
2011-06-30 Aktobe L 1-253.7 1360 1382 50.57% 22.79% 26.64%+0.44 -13.4 24
2011-06-30 @ Tobol W 2-153.7 1382 1360 26.64% 22.79% 50.57%-0.44 +13.4 33
2011-07-03 Kairat D 1-156.2 1316 1132 70.49% 19.14% 10.36%+1.45 -4.1 27
2011-07-03 @ Irtysh D 1-156.2 1132 1316 10.36% 19.14% 70.49%-1.45 +4.1 16
2011-07-03 Kaisar D 0-051.1 1206 1036 69.39% 19.50% 11.12%+1.37 -4.4 19
2011-07-03 @ Atyrau D 0-051.1 1036 1206 11.12% 19.50% 69.39%-1.37 +4.4 13
2011-07-03 Shakter Karagandy W 2-036.4 1366 1362 53.78% 22.51% 23.71%+0.57 +14.4 40
2011-07-03 @ Astana L 0-236.4 1362 1366 23.71% 22.51% 53.78%-0.57 -14.4 36
2011-07-03 Taraz W 3-243.7 1361 1193 69.32% 19.52% 11.16%+1.37 +3.4 37
2011-07-03 @ Zhetysu L 2-343.7 1193 1361 11.16% 19.52% 69.32%-1.37 -3.4 17
2011-07-04 Aktobe L 0-145.3 1311 1396 42.26% 23.17% 34.57%+0.13 -12.2 26
2011-07-04 @ Ordabasy W 1-045.3 1396 1311 34.57% 23.17% 42.26%-0.13 +12.2 36
2011-07-04 Vostok W 1-031.5 1347 1094 75.04% 17.43% 7.53%+1.78 +2.5 27
2011-07-04 @ Tobol L 0-131.5 1094 1347 7.53% 17.43% 75.04%-1.78 -2.5 11
2011-07-09 Atyrau W 2-036.9 1136 1202 44.89% 23.10% 32.01%+0.23 +18.5 19
2011-07-09 @ Kairat L 0-236.9 1202 1136 32.01% 23.10% 44.89%-0.23 -18.5 19
2011-07-09 Ordabasy D 1-155.1 1189 1298 38.87% 23.21% 37.93%+0.02 -0.0 18
2011-07-09 @ Taraz D 1-155.1 1298 1189 37.93% 23.21% 38.87%-0.02 +0.1 27
2011-07-09 Zhetysu L 0-428.6 1041 1365 15.43% 21.01% 63.56%-1.03 -18.5 13
2011-07-09 @ Kaisar W 4-028.6 1365 1041 63.56% 21.01% 15.43%+1.03 +18.5 40
2011-07-10 Astana D 0-053.6 1408 1381 56.32% 22.22% 21.46%+0.68 -2.5 37
2011-07-10 @ Aktobe D 0-053.6 1381 1408 21.46% 22.22% 56.32%-0.68 +2.5 41
2011-07-11 Irtysh L 1-243.6 1092 1312 24.69% 22.61% 52.69%-0.52 -7.5 11
2011-07-11 @ Vostok W 2-143.6 1312 1092 52.69% 22.61% 24.69%+0.52 +7.5 30
2011-07-16 Kairat W 2-039.6 1022 1154 35.62% 23.19% 41.19%-0.10 +22.6 16
2011-07-16 @ Kaisar L 0-239.6 1154 1022 41.19% 23.19% 35.62%+0.10 -22.6 19
2011-07-16 Ordabasy W 2-142.2 1383 1298 62.22% 21.29% 16.49%+0.96 +5.2 43
2011-07-16 @ Zhetysu L 1-242.2 1298 1383 16.49% 21.29% 62.22%-0.96 -5.2 27
2011-07-16 Taraz W 1-033.1 1383 1189 71.18% 18.91% 9.91%+1.49 +3.3 44
2011-07-16 @ Astana L 0-133.1 1189 1383 9.91% 18.91% 71.18%-1.49 -3.3 18
2011-07-16 Vostok L 0-149.1 1183 1085 63.49% 21.03% 15.48%+1.03 -17.5 19
2011-07-16 @ Atyrau W 1-049.1 1085 1183 15.48% 21.03% 63.49%-1.03 +17.5 14
2011-07-23 Astana D 1-156.4 1293 1387 41.08% 23.19% 35.73%+0.09 -0.3 28
2011-07-23 @ Ordabasy D 1-156.4 1387 1293 35.73% 23.19% 41.08%-0.09 +0.3 45
2011-07-23 Kaisar W 2-032.4 1102 1045 59.52% 21.77% 18.72%+0.83 +11.7 17
2011-07-23 @ Vostok L 0-232.4 1045 1102 18.72% 21.77% 59.52%-0.83 -11.7 16
2011-07-23 Tobol W 1-044.9 1186 1349 31.43% 23.07% 45.50%-0.25 +13.0 21
2011-07-23 @ Taraz L 0-144.9 1349 1186 45.50% 23.07% 31.43%+0.25 -13.0 27
2011-07-23 Zhetysu L 0-137.2 1132 1388 20.97% 22.15% 56.88%-0.70 -6.9 19
2011-07-23 @ Kairat W 1-037.2 1388 1132 56.88% 22.15% 20.97%+0.70 +6.9 46
2011-07-24 Irtysh W 7-234.6 1405 1319 62.32% 21.27% 16.41%+0.97 +16.8 40
2011-07-24 @ Aktobe L 2-734.6 1319 1405 16.41% 21.27% 62.32%-0.97 -16.8 30
2011-07-26 Shakter Karagandy L 1-438.8 1166 1347 29.10% 22.96% 47.94%-0.34 -21.0 19
2011-07-26 @ Atyrau W 4-138.8 1347 1166 47.94% 22.96% 29.10%+0.34 +21.0 39
2011-07-30 Astana W 1-040.7 1395 1387 54.21% 22.46% 23.33%+0.59 +7.5 49
2011-07-30 @ Zhetysu L 0-140.7 1387 1395 23.33% 22.46% 54.21%-0.59 -7.5 45
2011-07-30 Ordabasy L 1-350.9 1336 1293 58.08% 21.98% 19.94%+0.76 -26.3 27
2011-07-30 @ Tobol W 3-150.9 1293 1336 19.94% 21.98% 58.08%-0.76 +26.3 31
2011-07-30 Shakter Karagandy L 0-134.6 1033 1368 14.64% 20.79% 64.58%-1.09 -4.9 16
2011-07-30 @ Kaisar W 1-034.6 1368 1033 64.58% 20.79% 14.64%+1.09 +4.9 42
2011-07-30 Taraz W 1-035.0 1303 1199 63.97% 20.92% 15.10%+1.05 +5.1 33
2011-07-30 @ Irtysh L 0-135.0 1199 1303 15.10% 20.92% 63.97%-1.05 -5.1 21
2011-07-30 Vostok D 1-155.0 1125 1114 54.53% 22.43% 23.04%+0.60 -2.0 20
2011-07-30 @ Kairat D 1-155.0 1114 1125 23.04% 22.43% 54.53%-0.60 +2.0 18
2011-07-31 Aktobe D 1-155.9 1145 1422 19.08% 21.83% 59.08%-0.81 +2.6 20
2011-07-31 @ Atyrau D 1-155.9 1422 1145 59.08% 21.83% 19.08%+0.81 -2.6 41
2011-08-03 Shakter Karagandy W 2-147.4 1308 1373 44.95% 23.09% 31.96%+0.23 +9.3 36
2011-08-03 @ Irtysh L 1-247.4 1373 1308 31.96% 23.09% 44.95%-0.23 -9.3 42

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-08-14 Irtysh W 3-031.5 1403 1317 62.31% 21.27% 16.42%+0.97 +15.0 3
2011-08-14 @ Zhetysu L 0-331.5 1317 1403 16.42% 21.27% 62.31%-0.97 -15.0 0
2011-08-14 Kairat W 2-141.0 1194 1123 60.90% 21.53% 17.56%+0.89 +5.5 3
2011-08-14 @ Taraz L 1-241.0 1123 1194 17.56% 21.53% 60.90%-0.89 -5.5 0
2011-08-14 Kaisar L 0-246.1 1147 1028 65.30% 20.62% 14.08%+1.13 -33.8 0
2011-08-14 @ Atyrau W 2-046.1 1028 1147 14.08% 20.62% 65.30%-1.13 +33.8 3
2011-08-14 Ordabasy W 2-033.6 1420 1319 63.66% 20.99% 15.35%+1.04 +9.7 3
2011-08-14 @ Aktobe L 0-233.6 1319 1420 15.35% 20.99% 63.66%-1.04 -9.7 0
2011-08-14 Shakter Karagandy L 1-255.0 1379 1364 55.02% 22.37% 22.60%+0.62 -14.5 0
2011-08-14 @ Astana W 2-155.0 1364 1379 22.60% 22.37% 55.02%-0.62 +14.5 3
2011-08-14 Vostok L 0-151.0 1310 1116 71.19% 18.91% 9.90%+1.49 -19.4 0
2011-08-14 @ Tobol W 1-051.0 1116 1310 9.90% 18.91% 71.19%-1.49 +19.4 3
2011-08-20 Aktobe W 2-148.9 1378 1429 46.91% 23.01% 30.08%+0.30 +8.8 6
2011-08-20 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-248.9 1429 1378 30.08% 23.01% 46.91%-0.30 -8.8 3
2011-08-20 Astana W 1-039.3 1418 1365 59.07% 21.84% 19.09%+0.80 +6.3 6
2011-08-20 @ Zhetysu L 0-139.3 1365 1418 19.09% 21.84% 59.07%-0.80 -6.3 0
2011-08-20 Atyrau D 1-155.0 1117 1113 53.70% 22.51% 23.78%+0.57 -1.9 1
2011-08-20 @ Kairat D 1-155.0 1113 1117 23.78% 22.51% 53.70%-0.57 +1.9 1
2011-08-20 Kaisar D 0-050.5 1135 1062 61.09% 21.50% 17.41%+0.90 -3.2 4
2011-08-20 @ Vostok D 0-050.5 1062 1135 17.41% 21.50% 61.09%-0.90 +3.2 4
2011-08-20 Ordabasy W 3-033.3 1302 1309 52.36% 22.64% 25.00%+0.51 +21.9 3
2011-08-20 @ Irtysh L 0-333.3 1309 1302 25.00% 22.64% 52.36%-0.51 -21.9 0
2011-08-20 Taraz W 2-140.8 1291 1199 62.82% 21.17% 16.01%+0.99 +5.0 3
2011-08-20 @ Tobol L 1-240.8 1199 1291 16.01% 21.17% 62.82%-0.99 -5.0 3
2011-08-25 Irtysh W 5-135.4 1359 1324 57.16% 22.11% 20.73%+0.72 +20.3 3
2011-08-25 @ Astana L 1-535.4 1324 1359 20.73% 22.11% 57.16%-0.72 -20.3 3
2011-08-25 Kairat W 2-036.2 1065 1115 46.99% 23.01% 30.00%+0.30 +17.6 7
2011-08-25 @ Kaisar L 0-236.2 1115 1065 30.00% 23.01% 46.99%-0.30 -17.6 1
2011-08-25 Ordabasy D 2-262.4 1387 1288 63.61% 21.00% 15.39%+1.03 -2.4 7
2011-08-25 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-262.4 1288 1387 15.39% 21.00% 63.61%-1.03 +2.4 1
2011-08-25 Tobol W 2-150.6 1115 1296 29.27% 22.97% 47.76%-0.33 +12.8 4
2011-08-25 @ Atyrau L 1-250.6 1296 1115 47.76% 22.97% 29.27%+0.33 -12.8 3
2011-08-25 Vostok W 3-137.8 1194 1132 60.05% 21.68% 18.27%+0.85 +9.9 6
2011-08-25 @ Taraz L 1-337.8 1132 1194 18.27% 21.68% 60.05%-0.85 -9.9 4
2011-08-25 Zhetysu D 1-159.6 1420 1424 52.80% 22.60% 24.60%+0.53 -1.8 4
2011-08-25 @ Aktobe D 1-159.6 1424 1420 24.60% 22.60% 52.80%-0.53 +1.8 7
2011-09-10 Astana D 1-158.7 1419 1379 57.70% 22.04% 20.26%+0.74 -2.4 5
2011-09-10 @ Aktobe D 1-158.7 1379 1419 20.26% 22.04% 57.70%-0.74 +2.4 4
2011-09-10 Kairat D 0-050.3 1122 1098 56.01% 22.26% 21.73%+0.67 -2.4 5
2011-09-10 @ Vostok D 0-050.3 1098 1122 21.73% 22.26% 56.01%-0.67 +2.5 2
2011-09-10 Kaisar W 2-137.9 1283 1083 71.61% 18.76% 9.63%+1.52 +3.0 6
2011-09-10 @ Tobol L 1-237.9 1083 1283 9.63% 18.76% 71.61%-1.52 -3.0 7
2011-09-10 Ordabasy L 1-257.4 1426 1290 66.74% 20.25% 13.00%+1.21 -17.2 7
2011-09-10 @ Zhetysu W 2-157.4 1290 1426 13.00% 20.25% 66.74%-1.21 +17.2 4
2011-09-10 Shakter Karagandy W 2-148.1 1304 1385 42.79% 23.16% 34.05%+0.15 +9.7 6
2011-09-10 @ Irtysh L 1-248.1 1385 1304 34.05% 23.16% 42.79%-0.15 -9.7 7
2011-09-10 Taraz L 0-143.8 1128 1204 43.48% 23.14% 33.38%+0.18 -12.5 4
2011-09-10 @ Atyrau W 1-043.8 1204 1128 33.38% 23.14% 43.48%-0.18 +12.5 9
2011-09-17 Aktobe D 0-052.3 1313 1416 39.75% 23.20% 37.05%+0.05 -0.2 7
2011-09-17 @ Irtysh D 0-052.3 1416 1313 37.05% 23.20% 39.75%-0.05 +0.2 6
2011-09-17 Astana W 3-252.5 1307 1381 43.76% 23.13% 33.11%+0.19 +9.0 7
2011-09-17 @ Ordabasy L 2-352.5 1381 1307 33.11% 23.13% 43.76%-0.19 -9.0 4
2011-09-17 Atyrau L 1-252.1 1120 1115 53.72% 22.51% 23.77%+0.57 -14.1 5
2011-09-17 @ Vostok W 2-152.1 1115 1120 23.77% 22.51% 53.72%-0.57 +14.1 7
2011-09-17 Taraz W 2-039.9 1080 1217 34.93% 23.18% 41.89%-0.12 +22.9 10
2011-09-17 @ Kaisar L 0-239.9 1217 1080 41.89% 23.18% 34.93%+0.12 -22.9 9
2011-09-17 Tobol W 3-039.6 1100 1286 28.63% 22.93% 48.44%-0.36 +37.5 5
2011-09-17 @ Kairat L 0-339.6 1286 1100 48.44% 22.93% 28.63%+0.36 -37.5 6
2011-09-17 Zhetysu W 2-147.7 1375 1409 49.14% 22.89% 27.97%+0.38 +8.3 10
2011-09-17 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-247.7 1409 1375 27.97% 22.89% 49.14%-0.38 -8.3 7
2011-09-24 Irtysh D 0-051.3 1316 1313 53.59% 22.53% 23.88%+0.56 -2.1 8
2011-09-24 @ Ordabasy D 0-051.3 1313 1316 23.88% 22.53% 53.59%-0.56 +2.1 8
2011-09-24 Kairat W 3-032.4 1130 1138 52.28% 22.65% 25.07%+0.51 +22.0 10
2011-09-24 @ Atyrau L 0-332.4 1138 1130 25.07% 22.65% 52.28%-0.51 -22.0 5
2011-09-24 Shakter Karagandy D 1-158.7 1416 1383 56.97% 22.14% 20.89%+0.71 -2.3 7
2011-09-24 @ Aktobe D 1-158.7 1383 1416 20.89% 22.14% 56.97%-0.71 +2.3 11
2011-09-24 Tobol L 1-346.8 1194 1248 46.41% 23.03% 30.56%+0.28 -21.6 9
2011-09-24 @ Taraz W 3-146.8 1248 1194 30.56% 23.03% 46.41%-0.28 +21.6 9
2011-09-24 Vostok W 2-034.4 1103 1105 52.92% 22.59% 24.49%+0.53 +14.8 13
2011-09-24 @ Kaisar L 0-234.4 1105 1103 24.49% 22.59% 52.92%-0.53 -14.8 5
2011-09-24 Zhetysu W 1-041.8 1372 1400 49.83% 22.84% 27.33%+0.41 +8.6 7
2011-09-24 @ Astana L 0-141.8 1400 1372 27.33% 22.84% 49.83%-0.41 -8.6 7
2011-09-30 Aktobe W 2-038.9 1392 1414 50.54% 22.79% 26.67%+0.44 +16.0 10
2011-09-30 @ Zhetysu L 0-238.9 1414 1392 26.67% 22.79% 50.54%-0.44 -16.0 7
2011-09-30 Astana W 3-144.1 1315 1381 44.92% 23.09% 31.98%+0.23 +16.0 11
2011-09-30 @ Irtysh L 1-344.1 1381 1315 31.98% 23.09% 44.92%-0.23 -16.0 7
2011-09-30 Atyrau W 4-239.9 1270 1152 65.26% 20.63% 14.12%+1.12 +6.9 12
2011-09-30 @ Tobol L 2-439.9 1152 1270 14.12% 20.63% 65.26%-1.12 -6.9 10
2011-09-30 Kaisar W 2-034.4 1116 1117 53.03% 22.58% 24.39%+0.54 +14.8 8
2011-09-30 @ Kairat L 0-234.4 1117 1116 24.39% 22.58% 53.03%-0.54 -14.8 13
2011-09-30 Shakter Karagandy D 0-051.9 1314 1386 44.10% 23.12% 32.78%+0.20 -0.8 9
2011-09-30 @ Ordabasy D 0-051.9 1386 1314 32.78% 23.12% 44.10%-0.20 +0.8 12
2011-09-30 Taraz W 2-146.4 1091 1172 42.72% 23.16% 34.12%+0.15 +9.8 8
2011-09-30 @ Vostok L 1-246.4 1172 1091 34.12% 23.16% 42.72%-0.15 -9.8 9
2011-10-15 Aktobe W 3-252.0 1365 1398 49.18% 22.88% 27.94%+0.39 +7.9 10
2011-10-15 @ Astana L 2-352.0 1398 1365 27.94% 22.88% 49.18%-0.39 -7.9 7
2011-10-15 Atyrau D 1-155.1 1163 1145 55.30% 22.34% 22.35%+0.63 -2.1 10
2011-10-15 @ Taraz D 1-155.1 1145 1163 22.35% 22.34% 55.30%-0.63 +2.1 11
2011-10-15 Irtysh W 3-140.0 1387 1331 59.31% 21.80% 18.89%+0.82 +10.2 15
2011-10-15 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-340.0 1331 1387 18.89% 21.80% 59.31%-0.82 -10.2 11
2011-10-15 Tobol W 4-143.8 1103 1277 30.04% 23.01% 46.95%-0.30 +30.8 16
2011-10-15 @ Kaisar L 1-443.8 1277 1103 46.95% 23.01% 30.04%+0.30 -30.8 12
2011-10-15 Vostok W 2-142.2 1130 1100 56.67% 22.17% 21.15%+0.69 +6.5 11
2011-10-15 @ Kairat L 1-242.2 1100 1130 21.15% 22.17% 56.67%-0.69 -6.5 8
2011-10-15 Zhetysu L 1-250.6 1313 1408 40.95% 23.19% 35.86%+0.09 -11.2 9
2011-10-15 @ Ordabasy W 2-150.6 1408 1313 35.86% 23.19% 40.95%-0.09 +11.2 13
2011-10-22 Irtysh W 2-034.1 1390 1321 60.71% 21.56% 17.72%+0.88 +11.1 10
2011-10-22 @ Aktobe L 0-234.1 1321 1390 17.72% 21.56% 60.71%-0.88 -11.1 11
2011-10-22 Kairat W 2-031.1 1246 1137 64.44% 20.82% 14.74%+1.08 +9.3 15
2011-10-22 @ Tobol L 0-231.1 1137 1246 14.74% 20.82% 64.44%-1.08 -9.3 11
2011-10-22 Kaisar W 4-242.4 1160 1133 56.31% 22.22% 21.47%+0.68 +10.3 13
2011-10-22 @ Taraz L 2-442.4 1133 1160 21.47% 22.22% 56.31%-0.68 -10.2 16
2011-10-22 Ordabasy L 1-352.0 1373 1302 60.87% 21.54% 17.59%+0.89 -27.5 10
2011-10-22 @ Astana W 3-152.0 1302 1373 17.59% 21.54% 60.87%-0.89 +27.5 12
2011-10-22 Shakter Karagandy L 0-247.7 1419 1397 55.78% 22.29% 21.93%+0.66 -29.2 13
2011-10-22 @ Zhetysu W 2-047.7 1397 1419 21.93% 22.29% 55.78%-0.66 +29.3 18
2011-10-22 Vostok W 2-141.5 1147 1094 59.09% 21.83% 19.08%+0.81 +6.0 14
2011-10-22 @ Atyrau L 1-241.5 1094 1147 19.08% 21.83% 59.09%-0.81 -6.0 8
2011-10-29 Aktobe L 2-451.7 1330 1401 44.08% 23.12% 32.80%+0.20 -18.5 12
2011-10-29 @ Ordabasy W 4-251.7 1401 1330 32.80% 23.12% 44.08%-0.20 +18.5 13
2011-10-29 Astana W 2-034.8 1426 1345 61.83% 21.36% 16.81%+0.94 +10.6 21
2011-10-29 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-234.8 1345 1426 16.81% 21.36% 61.83%-0.94 -10.6 10
2011-10-29 Atyrau W 1-038.9 1123 1153 49.65% 22.85% 27.50%+0.40 +8.7 19
2011-10-29 @ Kaisar L 0-138.9 1153 1123 27.50% 22.85% 49.65%-0.40 -8.7 14
2011-10-29 Taraz D 1-154.9 1128 1171 47.92% 22.96% 29.12%+0.34 -1.2 12
2011-10-29 @ Kairat D 1-154.9 1171 1128 29.12% 22.96% 47.92%-0.34 +1.1 14
2011-10-29 Vostok L 1-352.5 1255 1088 69.24% 19.54% 11.21%+1.36 -30.9 15
2011-10-29 @ Tobol W 3-152.5 1088 1255 11.21% 19.54% 69.24%-1.36 +30.9 11
2011-10-29 Zhetysu W 2-148.2 1310 1390 43.01% 23.15% 33.84%+0.16 +9.7 14
2011-10-29 @ Irtysh L 1-248.2 1390 1310 33.84% 23.15% 43.01%-0.16 -9.7 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-08-14 9.90% Vostok 1116 1 @ Tobol 1310 0
2 2011-10-29 11.21% Vostok 1088 3 @ Tobol 1255 1
3 2011-03-12 11.33% Kairat 1137 1 @ Zhetysu 1303 0
4 2011-04-24 12.69% Shakter Karagandy 1313 1 @ Aktobe 1454 0
5 2011-09-10 13.00% Ordabasy 1290 2 @ Zhetysu 1426 1
6 2011-08-14 14.08% Kaisar 1028 2 @ Atyrau 1147 0
7 2011-07-16 15.48% Vostok 1085 1 @ Atyrau 1183 0
8 2011-05-26 16.02% @ Kairat 1131 3 Aktobe 1447 0
9 2011-06-25 16.13% @ Kaisar 1019 1 Irtysh 1333 0
10 2011-03-31 16.25% Shakter Karagandy 1296 2 @ Tobol 1384 1
11 2011-03-06 16.42% Zhetysu 1270 2 @ Astana 1356 0
12 2011-10-22 17.59% Ordabasy 1302 3 @ Astana 1373 1
13 2011-07-30 19.94% Ordabasy 1293 3 @ Tobol 1336 1
14 2011-10-22 21.93% Shakter Karagandy 1397 2 @ Zhetysu 1419 0
15 2011-08-14 22.60% Shakter Karagandy 1364 2 @ Astana 1379 1
16 2011-03-31 22.86% Taraz 1202 1 @ Ordabasy 1215 0
17 2011-09-17 23.77% Atyrau 1115 2 @ Vostok 1120 1
18 2011-04-04 24.84% @ Kaisar 1044 1 Atyrau 1263 0
19 2011-05-15 25.48% @ Kairat 1123 2 Shakter Karagandy 1336 1
20 2011-05-15 25.99% Astana 1368 1 @ Tobol 1352 0
21 2011-06-12 26.59% Zhetysu 1354 3 @ Irtysh 1333 2
22 2011-06-30 26.64% Aktobe 1382 2 @ Tobol 1360 1
23 2011-05-26 27.92% @ Kaisar 1013 1 Taraz 1204 0
24 2011-09-17 28.63% @ Kairat 1100 3 Tobol 1286 0
25 2011-06-25 29.01% @ Atyrau 1192 1 Zhetysu 1375 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-04-16 48.36 Ordabasy 4 1208 29.32% @ Vostok 0 1164 47.71% 22.97%
2 2011-05-26 47.40 @ Kairat 3 1131 16.02% Aktobe 0 1447 62.82% 21.17%
3 2011-05-26 46.40 @ Irtysh 5 1306 41.93% Astana 0 1393 34.89% 23.18%
4 2011-09-17 37.51 @ Kairat 3 1100 28.63% Tobol 0 1286 48.44% 22.93%
5 2011-08-14 33.81 Kaisar 2 1028 14.08% @ Atyrau 0 1147 65.30% 20.62%
6 2011-03-06 32.39 Zhetysu 2 1270 16.42% @ Astana 0 1356 62.31% 21.27%
7 2011-06-12 31.15 Ordabasy 3 1282 38.21% @ Kairat 0 1171 38.58% 23.21%
8 2011-10-29 30.87 Vostok 3 1088 11.21% @ Tobol 1 1255 69.24% 19.54%
9 2011-10-15 30.79 @ Kaisar 4 1103 30.04% Tobol 1 1277 46.95% 23.01%
10 2011-10-22 29.26 Shakter Karagandy 2 1397 21.93% @ Zhetysu 0 1419 55.78% 22.29%
11 2011-05-21 28.51 @ Taraz 3 1176 42.42% Atyrau 0 1260 34.41% 23.17%
12 2011-05-21 27.72 @ Ordabasy 3 1258 43.65% Irtysh 0 1333 33.21% 23.13%
13 2011-10-22 27.45 Ordabasy 3 1302 17.59% @ Astana 1 1373 60.87% 21.54%
14 2011-07-30 26.29 Ordabasy 3 1293 19.94% @ Tobol 1 1336 58.08% 21.98%
15 2011-03-17 24.71 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1271 48.25% Irtysh 0 1311 28.81% 22.94%
16 2011-09-17 22.89 @ Kaisar 2 1080 34.93% Taraz 0 1217 41.89% 23.18%
17 2011-07-16 22.58 @ Kaisar 2 1022 35.62% Kairat 0 1154 41.19% 23.19%
18 2011-09-24 22.00 @ Atyrau 3 1130 52.28% Kairat 0 1138 25.07% 22.65%
19 2011-08-20 21.94 @ Irtysh 3 1302 52.36% Ordabasy 0 1309 25.00% 22.64%
20 2011-09-24 21.56 Tobol 3 1248 30.56% @ Taraz 1 1194 46.41% 23.03%
21 2011-07-26 21.01 Shakter Karagandy 4 1347 47.94% @ Atyrau 1 1166 29.10% 22.96%
22 2011-05-07 20.99 @ Zhetysu 4 1330 47.98% Tobol 1 1373 29.06% 22.95%
23 2011-06-12 20.39 Tobol 2 1354 40.69% @ Atyrau 0 1226 36.11% 23.19%
24 2011-08-25 20.29 @ Astana 5 1359 57.16% Irtysh 1 1324 20.73% 22.11%
25 2011-08-14 19.36 Vostok 1 1116 9.90% @ Tobol 0 1310 71.19% 18.91%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-04-30 65.3 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1331 53.52% Zhetysu 3 1329 23.94% 22.53%
2 2011-08-25 62.4 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1387 63.61% Ordabasy 2 1288 15.39% 21.00%
3 2011-06-25 62.1 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1364 59.31% Ordabasy 2 1309 18.89% 21.80%
4 2011-03-31 61.1 @ Atyrau 2 1266 64.80% Kairat 2 1152 14.46% 20.74%
5 2011-04-04 60.9 @ Vostok 2 1169 27.16% Tobol 2 1367 50.01% 22.83%
6 2011-03-17 60.4 @ Vostok 2 1178 41.91% Atyrau 2 1265 34.91% 23.18%
7 2011-08-25 59.6 @ Aktobe 1 1420 52.80% Zhetysu 1 1424 24.60% 22.60%
8 2011-04-16 58.9 @ Aktobe 1 1458 66.25% Zhetysu 1 1328 13.37% 20.38%
9 2011-09-10 58.7 @ Aktobe 1 1419 57.70% Astana 1 1379 20.26% 22.04%
10 2011-09-24 58.7 @ Aktobe 1 1416 56.97% Shakter Karagandy 1 1383 20.89% 22.14%
11 2011-06-12 57.6 Zhetysu 3 1354 26.59% @ Irtysh 2 1333 50.63% 22.78%
12 2011-09-10 57.4 Ordabasy 2 1290 13.00% @ Zhetysu 1 1426 66.74% 20.25%
13 2011-06-08 56.6 @ Ordabasy 1 1287 75.54% Kaisar 1 1027 7.24% 17.22%
14 2011-07-23 56.4 @ Ordabasy 1 1293 41.08% Astana 1 1387 35.73% 23.19%
15 2011-04-24 56.2 @ Zhetysu 1 1331 55.96% Irtysh 1 1307 21.77% 22.26%
16 2011-07-03 56.2 @ Irtysh 1 1316 70.49% Kairat 1 1132 10.36% 19.14%
17 2011-03-31 56.0 Shakter Karagandy 2 1296 16.25% @ Tobol 1 1384 62.53% 21.23%
18 2011-07-31 55.9 @ Atyrau 1 1145 19.08% Aktobe 1 1422 59.08% 21.83%
19 2011-05-07 55.5 @ Ordabasy 1 1272 55.62% Atyrau 1 1252 22.07% 22.30%
20 2011-05-26 55.3 @ Atyrau 1 1231 46.37% Ordabasy 1 1286 30.59% 23.04%
21 2011-07-09 55.1 @ Taraz 1 1189 38.87% Ordabasy 1 1298 37.93% 23.21%
22 2011-10-15 55.1 @ Taraz 1 1163 55.30% Atyrau 1 1145 22.35% 22.34%
23 2011-03-12 55.0 Aktobe 3 1437 38.81% @ Irtysh 2 1321 37.98% 23.21%
24 2011-07-30 55.0 @ Kairat 1 1125 54.53% Vostok 1 1114 23.04% 22.43%
25 2011-08-14 55.0 Shakter Karagandy 2 1364 22.60% @ Astana 1 1379 55.02% 22.37%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-06-19 24.3 @ Tobol 3 1358 79.67% Kaisar 0 1024 5.09% 15.25%
2 2011-06-08 25.0 @ Aktobe 3 1400 78.27% Vostok 0 1092 5.77% 15.95%
3 2011-05-07 25.3 @ Aktobe 3 1432 78.06% Kairat 0 1128 5.88% 16.06%
4 2011-05-21 25.3 @ Aktobe 6 1444 83.98% Kaisar 1 1016 3.23% 12.79%
5 2011-03-31 25.8 @ Zhetysu 3 1297 74.63% Kaisar 0 1051 7.77% 17.60%
6 2011-05-21 26.0 @ Zhetysu 3 1349 74.42% Vostok 0 1106 7.89% 17.69%
7 2011-04-24 27.3 @ Astana 5 1366 79.29% Kaisar 1 1039 5.27% 15.44%
8 2011-03-07 28.3 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1283 73.63% Kaisar 0 1053 8.36% 18.01%
9 2011-03-12 28.5 @ Tobol 3 1379 68.27% Taraz 0 1224 11.90% 19.83%
10 2011-05-07 28.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1330 73.03% Vostok 0 1109 8.73% 18.24%
11 2011-07-09 28.6 Zhetysu 4 1365 63.56% @ Kaisar 0 1041 15.43% 21.01%
12 2011-06-19 28.7 @ Astana 6 1359 72.86% Kairat 1 1140 8.84% 18.30%
13 2011-04-16 29.1 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1299 64.35% Taraz 0 1191 14.81% 20.84%
14 2011-06-18 29.1 @ Irtysh 3 1320 64.92% Atyrau 0 1206 14.37% 20.71%
15 2011-05-15 29.3 Aktobe 2 1437 70.89% @ Kaisar 0 1023 10.10% 19.01%
16 2011-04-16 29.4 Tobol 3 1371 62.98% @ Kaisar 0 1053 15.89% 21.13%
17 2011-04-09 29.7 @ Astana 2 1352 70.31% Vostok 0 1170 10.49% 19.20%
18 2011-04-09 30.3 @ Irtysh 4 1312 75.06% Kaisar 1 1059 7.51% 17.42%
19 2011-04-24 30.6 @ Ordabasy 2 1257 66.28% Kairat 0 1126 13.35% 20.38%
20 2011-03-06 31.1 @ Aktobe 2 1430 69.76% Atyrau 0 1255 10.86% 19.38%
21 2011-10-22 31.1 @ Tobol 2 1246 64.44% Kairat 0 1137 14.74% 20.82%
22 2011-07-04 31.5 @ Tobol 1 1347 75.04% Vostok 0 1094 7.53% 17.43%
23 2011-08-14 31.5 @ Zhetysu 3 1403 62.31% Irtysh 0 1317 16.42% 21.27%
24 2011-07-23 32.4 @ Vostok 2 1102 59.52% Kaisar 0 1045 18.72% 21.77%
25 2011-09-24 32.4 @ Atyrau 3 1130 52.28% Kairat 0 1138 25.07% 22.65%