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2014 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Astana

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Spartak

11.34 points above expected

21 points · 9.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shakter Karagandy

14.28 points below expected

21 points · 35.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aktobe 22 12 7 3 43 34 17 +17
2 Kairat 22 13 3 6 42 41 20 +21
3 Astana 22 10 9 3 39 34 17 +17
4 Shakter Karagandy 22 11 3 8 36 33 27 +6
5 Ordabasy 22 10 5 7 35 24 22 +2
6 Kaisar 22 8 8 6 32 23 23 0
7 Zhetysu 22 7 6 9 27 15 18 -3
8 Tobol 22 6 8 8 26 22 29 -7
9 Irtysh 22 6 6 10 24 28 35 -7
10 Atyrau 22 6 6 10 24 19 27 -8
11 Taraz 22 5 4 13 19 21 34 -13
12 Spartak 22 3 5 14 14 16 41 -25
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Astana 32 18 10 4 45 63 26 +37 — —
2 Aktobe 32 17 10 5 40 52 31 +21 — —
3 Kairat 32 18 5 9 38 58 31 +27 — —
4 Kaisar 32 10 13 9 27 30 34 -4 — —
5 Ordabasy 32 13 5 14 27 34 44 -10 — —
6 Shakter Karagandy 32 11 6 15 21 41 49 -8 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tobol 32 10 12 10 29 35 35 0 — —
2 Irtysh 32 9 10 13 25 39 44 -5 — —
3 Zhetysu 32 10 8 14 25 21 31 -10 — —
4 Taraz 32 9 7 16 25 32 45 -13 — —
5 Atyrau 32 10 7 15 25 30 43 -13 — —
6 Spartak 32 7 7 18 21 30 52 -22 — —

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spartak 21 9.66 +11.34
2 Astana 45 38.14 +6.86
3 Kairat 38 32.40 +5.60
4 Taraz 25 24.04 +0.96
5 Aktobe 40 42.37 -2.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shakter Karagandy 21 35.28 -14.28
2 Irtysh 25 31.61 -6.61
3 Ordabasy 27 31.29 -4.29
4 Zhetysu 25 28.74 -3.74
5 Tobol 29 31.87 -2.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kaisar 4 May 6 – May 24 1 in 75
2 Aktobe 7 Apr 19 – May 24 1 in 75
3 Shakter Karagandy 5 Mar 29 – Apr 19 1 in 48
4 Kairat 6 Jul 27 – Sep 28 1 in 31
5 Astana 5 Oct 4 – Nov 1 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tobol 3 Aug 3 – Aug 29 1 in 244
2 Atyrau 5 Jun 28 – Aug 3 1 in 106
3 Irtysh 4 Apr 13 – May 1 1 in 83
4 Kairat 3 Mar 15 – Mar 29 1 in 62
5 Zhetysu 4 May 10 – May 28 1 in 57

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Astana 17 May 28 – Nov 1 1 in 84
2 Spartak 3 Jun 28 – Jul 13 1 in 42
3 Tobol 8 Sep 14 – Nov 9 1 in 17
4 Atyrau 4 Mar 15 – Apr 5 1 in 15
5 Kaisar 6 Apr 27 – May 24 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aktobe 6 May 28 – Jul 6 1 in 182
2 Shakter Karagandy 12 Jul 27 – Nov 9 1 in 110
3 Irtysh 10 Jun 1 – Aug 29 1 in 36
4 Tobol 6 Mar 22 – Apr 19 1 in 23
5 Zhetysu 6 May 1 – May 28 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Astana 1646 64 +27 12 8.6 +3.4
Aktobe 1596 61 +80 13 8.0 +5.0
Kairat 1577 59 -52 4 8.5 -4.5
Ordabasy 1376 44 -39 3 5.0 -2.0
Kaisar 1406 43 -13 5 5.9 -0.9
Tobol 1442 42 +53 11 8.0 +3.0
Shakter Karagandy 1363 39 -38 1 4.2 -3.2
Zhetysu 1280 38 -48 6 6.7 -0.7
Irtysh 1361 37 +22 7 7.2 -0.2
Atyrau 1255 37 -54 6 7.0 -1.0
Taraz 1311 34 -7 7 7.7 -0.7
Spartak 1215 28 +35 6 4.4 +1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AST ATY IRT KAI KAI ORD SK SPA TAR TOB ZHE
Aktobe —
2-1-1
5.11
0-2-0
3.89
1-1-0
4.05
2-0-2
5.74
1-3-0
7.43
2-1-1
7.47
2-2-0
6.99
2-0-0
5.19
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
3.57
1-0-1
4.08
Astana
1-1-2
5.84
—
1-0-1
3.85
2-0-0
3.34
2-2-0
6.19
2-1-1
7.42
3-1-0
7.22
3-1-0
6.96
1-1-0
4.97
2-0-0
3.97
1-1-0
3.36
0-2-0
3.82
Atyrau
0-2-0
1.64
1-0-1
1.66
—
2-0-2
5.10
1-0-1
1.72
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-2
8.15
2-1-1
5.80
1-2-1
4.40
1-0-3
5.55
Irtysh
0-1-1
1.47
0-0-2
2.14
2-0-2
5.85
—
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.51
2-1-1
8.58
2-1-1
6.03
0-3-1
5.03
1-2-1
5.99
Kairat
2-0-2
5.22
0-2-2
4.73
1-0-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.01
—
3-1-0
6.71
2-0-2
7.00
2-1-1
6.70
2-0-0
4.80
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.08
Kaisar
0-3-1
3.56
1-1-2
3.60
2-0-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-3
4.28
—
2-0-2
5.34
2-1-1
4.70
0-2-0
4.49
1-1-0
3.07
0-2-0
2.60
1-1-0
2.89
Ordabasy
1-1-2
3.52
0-1-3
3.75
1-1-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.74
2-0-2
3.98
2-0-2
5.59
—
3-0-1
4.97
1-0-1
4.73
0-1-1
3.50
1-0-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.93
Shakter Karagandy
0-2-2
3.97
0-1-3
4.02
1-0-1
3.33
0-1-1
2.98
1-1-2
4.24
1-1-2
6.25
1-0-3
5.97
—
2-0-0
4.85
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.30
Spartak
0-0-2
0.52
0-1-1
0.69
2-1-1
2.92
1-1-2
2.52
0-0-2
0.83
0-2-0
1.08
1-0-1
0.87
0-0-2
0.79
—
0-1-3
3.15
2-0-2
2.30
1-1-2
2.78
Taraz
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
1.54
1-1-2
5.13
1-1-2
4.91
0-0-2
1.91
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
1.99
0-0-2
2.13
3-1-0
7.86
—
0-2-2
4.49
3-0-1
4.56
Tobol
0-0-2
1.92
0-1-1
2.13
1-2-1
6.54
1-3-0
5.92
0-1-1
2.53
0-2-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.31
2-0-2
8.82
2-2-0
6.45
—
2-1-1
6.32
Zhetysu
1-0-1
1.42
0-2-0
1.68
3-0-1
5.40
1-2-1
4.94
1-0-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.18
2-1-1
8.27
1-0-3
6.38
1-1-2
4.64
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +5.2
Allowed 0.66 -7.5
Differential 0.93 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.42%11.98%5.21%3.91%0.52%0.78%32.81%
111.98%12.50%6.77%2.34%1.04%1.56%36.20%
25.21%6.77%2.60%1.82%0.26%0.26%16.93%
33.91%2.34%1.82%0.52%0.26%0.26%9.11%
40.52%1.04%0.26%0.26%——2.08%
5+0.78%1.56%0.26%0.26%——2.86%
Total32.81%36.20%16.93%9.11%2.08%2.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.21 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.81
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%3.12%———18.75%
112.50%15.62%———6.25%34.38%
29.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
312.50%9.38%————21.88%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+———————
Total46.88%37.50%9.38%——6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.97 +0.66
SD 1.21 1.60 2.15
CV 0.75 1.65 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%—3.12%——21.88%
112.50%15.62%3.12%———31.25%
26.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
36.25%—3.12%———9.38%
43.12%——3.12%——6.25%
5+6.25%6.25%—3.12%——15.62%
Total46.88%34.38%9.38%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 0.81 +1.16
SD 1.80 0.97 1.92
CV 0.92 1.19 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%6.25%9.38%——40.62%
112.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
2—9.38%————9.38%
33.12%—6.25%3.12%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%28.12%25.00%18.75%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.34 -0.41
SD 1.01 1.10 1.43
CV 1.08 0.82 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%3.12%6.25%——31.25%
19.38%15.62%9.38%——3.12%37.50%
29.38%—3.12%—3.12%—15.62%
33.12%—3.12%—3.12%3.12%12.50%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total37.50%25.00%18.75%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.38 -0.16
SD 1.21 1.52 1.82
CV 0.99 1.10 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%21.88%————28.12%
112.50%3.12%———3.12%18.75%
212.50%6.25%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
33.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
Total34.38%46.88%12.50%3.12%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.97 +0.84
SD 1.79 1.06 1.97
CV 0.99 1.10 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%3.12%6.25%——37.50%
115.62%18.75%3.12%—3.12%—40.62%
2—9.38%6.25%———15.62%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total31.25%43.75%15.62%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.06 -0.12
SD 0.98 1.01 1.29
CV 1.05 0.95 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%9.38%——3.12%25.00%
118.75%15.62%9.38%6.25%3.12%—53.12%
2—12.50%————12.50%
33.12%—6.25%———9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.88%40.62%25.00%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.38 -0.31
SD 0.88 1.18 1.60
CV 0.83 0.86 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%12.50%—6.25%—34.38%
112.50%6.25%6.25%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
23.12%3.12%3.12%9.38%——18.75%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total28.12%28.12%21.88%12.50%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.53 -0.25
SD 1.35 1.46 2.11
CV 1.05 0.95 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%21.88%3.12%3.12%—6.25%40.62%
1—15.62%12.50%—3.12%—31.25%
26.25%9.38%—3.12%—3.12%21.88%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%53.12%15.62%6.25%3.12%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.62 -0.69
SD 0.95 1.41 1.77
CV 1.01 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%15.62%9.38%9.38%——43.75%
19.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%—3.12%28.12%
26.25%6.25%—6.25%——18.75%
33.12%——3.12%——6.25%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total28.12%34.38%12.50%21.88%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.41 -0.41
SD 1.19 1.29 1.79
CV 1.19 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%3.12%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
16.25%18.75%9.38%6.25%3.12%—43.75%
26.25%9.38%3.12%———18.75%
39.38%—————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%31.25%18.75%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.09 +0.00
SD 0.93 1.12 1.59
CV 0.85 1.02 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%15.62%6.25%6.25%——43.75%
121.88%9.38%12.50%3.12%——46.88%
23.12%6.25%————9.38%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total40.62%31.25%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.66 0.97 -0.31
SD 0.65 1.00 1.26
CV 1.00 1.03 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Astana 1646 45 38.14 +6.86 61.0% 21 28 34 38 42 48 51
Aktobe 1596 40 42.37 -2.37 57.0% 32 33 39 43 46 51 56
Kairat 1577 38 32.40 +5.60 95.0% 19 22 28 32 37 42 50
Tobol 1442 29 31.87 -2.87 21.0% 17 23 27 32 36 42 47
Kaisar 1406 27 29.52 -2.52 71.0% 19 21 25 29 33 39 45
Ordabasy 1376 27 31.29 -4.29 76.0% 18 21 28 32 35 40 43
Shakter Karagandy 1363 21 35.28 -14.28 60.0% 20 25 32 35 40 44 49
Irtysh 1361 25 31.61 -6.61 8.0% 20 23 28 31 36 40 46
Taraz 1311 25 24.04 +0.96 21.0% 12 14 20 24 27 34 39
Zhetysu 1280 25 28.74 -3.74 41.0% 16 20 25 28 32 38 45
Atyrau 1255 25 27.85 -2.85 30.0% 16 17 23 29 32 36 40
Spartak 1215 21 9.66 +11.34 89.0% 1 3 6 10 13 16 18

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.25%
Strong Edge
52.60%26.04%21.35%
Elo Value
Home Edge
225 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0112.33600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.66 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.50+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
Astana, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.16/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.5 * Some Luck: 4.5 to 6.75 * Lucky: 6.75 to 9 * Wild Swing: 9 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.33 * Off: 2.33 to 3.11 * Way Off: 3.11 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.73 points
Some Luck
05.6314
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.944
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.00%
Kairat
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
8.00%
Irtysh
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 124.58
1.04
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
69%
Even
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.69
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.50
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.83
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Astana17.00%21.00%26.00%15.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%—
Aktobe56.00%21.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%——————
Kairat6.00%13.00%8.00%7.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%10.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%—
Tobol2.00%8.00%9.00%14.00%11.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%
Kaisar2.00%3.00%5.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%14.00%9.00%16.00%9.00%—
Ordabasy1.00%6.00%11.00%13.00%15.00%14.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%7.00%7.00%—
Irtysh3.00%9.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%10.00%17.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%5.00%—
Zhetysu—5.00%2.00%5.00%10.00%16.00%12.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%—
Taraz———5.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%11.00%14.00%20.00%38.00%2.00%
Atyrau——4.00%4.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%10.00%16.00%15.00%—
Shakter Karagandy13.00%14.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%—
Spartak——————————3.00%97.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Aktobe 100% — —
Astana 100% — —
Irtysh 93.00% 7.00% —
Kairat 98.00% 2.00% —
Shakter Karagandy 98.00% 2.00% —
Kaisar 94.00% 5.00% 1.00%
Ordabasy 96.00% 3.00% 1.00%
Tobol 94.00% 5.00% 1.00%
Zhetysu 85.00% 14.00% 1.00%
Atyrau 81.00% 17.00% 2.00%
Taraz 59.00% 36.00% 5.00%
Spartak 2.00% 9.00% 89.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-03-15 Aktobe L 0-245.1 1396 1520 34.47% 27.62% 37.91%-0.05 -24.2 0
2014-03-15 @ Taraz W 2-045.1 1520 1396 37.91% 27.62% 34.47%+0.05 +24.2 3
2014-03-15 Atyrau L 0-151.6 1433 1364 58.41% 25.29% 16.30%+0.81 -19.6 0
2014-03-15 @ Kairat W 1-051.6 1364 1433 16.30% 25.29% 58.41%-0.81 +19.6 3
2014-03-15 Ordabasy W 1-042.8 1372 1419 45.20% 27.31% 27.49%+0.29 +10.8 3
2014-03-15 @ Kaisar L 0-142.8 1419 1372 27.49% 27.31% 45.20%-0.29 -10.8 0
2014-03-15 Shakter Karagandy W 1-043.2 1459 1438 53.30% 26.34% 20.36%+0.59 +8.4 3
2014-03-15 @ Irtysh L 0-143.2 1438 1459 20.36% 26.34% 53.30%-0.59 -8.4 0
2014-03-15 Spartak W 2-135.0 1460 1091 80.33% 15.52% 4.16%+2.14 +1.5 3
2014-03-15 @ Tobol L 1-235.0 1091 1460 4.16% 15.52% 80.33%-2.14 -1.5 0
2014-03-15 Zhetysu D 0-054.8 1502 1371 64.08% 23.61% 12.30%+1.08 -4.6 1
2014-03-15 @ Astana D 0-054.8 1371 1502 12.30% 23.61% 64.08%-1.08 +4.6 1
2014-03-22 Aktobe D 1-162.0 1430 1544 35.91% 27.63% 36.46%-0.01 +0.0 1
2014-03-22 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-162.0 1544 1430 36.46% 27.63% 35.91%+0.01 -0.0 4
2014-03-22 Astana L 0-149.6 1408 1497 39.47% 27.59% 32.94%+0.10 -14.2 0
2014-03-22 @ Ordabasy W 1-049.6 1497 1408 32.94% 27.59% 39.47%-0.10 +14.2 4
2014-03-22 Irtysh D 0-050.1 1089 1467 11.09% 22.91% 65.99%-1.18 +4.9 1
2014-03-22 @ Spartak D 0-050.1 1467 1089 65.99% 22.91% 11.09%+1.18 -4.9 4
2014-03-22 Kairat W 1-042.4 1376 1414 46.38% 27.21% 26.41%+0.33 +10.5 4
2014-03-22 @ Zhetysu L 0-142.4 1414 1376 26.41% 27.21% 46.38%-0.33 -10.5 0
2014-03-22 Taraz D 0-051.1 1383 1372 52.31% 26.50% 21.19%+0.55 -2.6 4
2014-03-22 @ Kaisar D 0-051.1 1372 1383 21.19% 26.50% 52.31%-0.55 +2.6 1
2014-03-22 Tobol D 0-052.8 1384 1462 41.04% 27.54% 31.43%+0.15 -0.8 4
2014-03-22 @ Atyrau D 0-052.8 1462 1384 31.43% 27.54% 41.04%-0.15 +0.8 4
2014-03-29 Atyrau L 0-153.0 1462 1383 59.41% 25.03% 15.55%+0.85 -19.9 4
2014-03-29 @ Irtysh W 1-053.0 1383 1462 15.55% 25.03% 59.41%-0.85 +19.9 7
2014-03-29 Kaisar W 1-039.8 1512 1380 64.12% 23.60% 12.28%+1.08 +5.2 7
2014-03-29 @ Astana L 0-139.8 1380 1512 12.28% 23.60% 64.12%-1.08 -5.2 4
2014-03-29 Ordabasy L 0-150.0 1403 1394 52.03% 26.54% 21.43%+0.54 -17.7 0
2014-03-29 @ Kairat W 1-050.0 1394 1403 21.43% 26.54% 52.03%-0.54 +17.7 3
2014-03-29 Shakter Karagandy L 1-545.8 1374 1430 44.00% 27.39% 28.61%+0.25 -46.0 1
2014-03-29 @ Taraz W 5-145.8 1430 1374 28.61% 27.39% 44.00%-0.25 +46.0 4
2014-03-29 Spartak W 3-023.5 1544 1094 84.27% 12.89% 2.84%+2.50 +2.8 7
2014-03-29 @ Aktobe L 0-323.5 1094 1544 2.84% 12.89% 84.27%-2.50 -2.8 1
2014-03-29 Zhetysu L 0-249.6 1463 1387 59.10% 25.11% 15.78%+0.84 -37.4 4
2014-03-29 @ Tobol W 2-049.6 1387 1463 15.78% 25.11% 59.10%-0.84 +37.4 7
2014-04-05 Aktobe D 0-056.2 1403 1547 31.81% 27.55% 40.64%-0.14 +0.7 8
2014-04-05 @ Atyrau D 0-056.2 1547 1403 40.64% 27.55% 31.81%+0.14 -0.7 8
2014-04-05 Irtysh D 0-053.6 1424 1442 48.75% 26.97% 24.27%+0.42 -2.0 8
2014-04-05 @ Zhetysu D 0-053.6 1442 1424 24.27% 26.97% 48.75%-0.42 +2.0 5
2014-04-05 Kairat L 0-148.7 1375 1385 49.77% 26.86% 23.38%+0.45 -17.1 4
2014-04-05 @ Kaisar W 1-048.7 1385 1375 23.38% 26.86% 49.77%-0.45 +17.1 3
2014-04-05 Shakter Karagandy L 0-133.7 1091 1476 10.77% 22.71% 66.52%-1.21 -4.6 1
2014-04-05 @ Spartak W 1-033.7 1476 1091 66.52% 22.71% 10.77%+1.21 +4.6 7
2014-04-05 Taraz W 1-037.0 1517 1328 68.75% 21.78% 9.47%+1.34 +4.0 10
2014-04-05 @ Astana L 0-137.0 1328 1517 9.47% 21.78% 68.75%-1.34 -4.0 1
2014-04-05 Tobol W 3-037.3 1412 1425 49.39% 26.90% 23.71%+0.44 +26.3 6
2014-04-05 @ Ordabasy L 0-337.3 1425 1412 23.71% 26.90% 49.39%-0.44 -26.3 4
2014-04-09 Astana D 0-055.2 1403 1521 35.33% 27.62% 37.04%-0.03 +0.1 4
2014-04-09 @ Kairat D 0-055.2 1521 1403 37.04% 27.62% 35.33%+0.03 -0.1 11
2014-04-09 Atyrau W 2-037.7 1481 1404 59.18% 25.09% 15.73%+0.84 +12.6 10
2014-04-09 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-237.7 1404 1481 15.73% 25.09% 59.18%-0.84 -12.6 8
2014-04-09 Kaisar D 1-156.2 1399 1358 55.51% 25.93% 18.56%+0.68 -2.8 5
2014-04-09 @ Tobol D 1-156.2 1358 1399 18.56% 25.93% 55.51%-0.68 +2.8 5
2014-04-09 Ordabasy W 2-039.8 1444 1438 51.72% 26.59% 21.69%+0.53 +16.8 8
2014-04-09 @ Irtysh L 0-239.8 1438 1444 21.69% 26.59% 51.72%-0.53 -16.8 6
2014-04-09 Spartak W 2-028.0 1324 1087 72.28% 20.12% 7.60%+1.56 +5.9 4
2014-04-09 @ Taraz L 0-228.0 1087 1324 7.60% 20.12% 72.28%-1.56 -5.9 1
2014-04-09 Zhetysu W 1-042.6 1546 1422 63.55% 23.80% 12.66%+1.05 +5.4 11
2014-04-09 @ Aktobe L 0-142.6 1422 1546 12.66% 23.80% 63.55%-1.05 -5.4 8
2014-04-13 Aktobe W 1-051.8 1421 1552 33.63% 27.60% 38.76%-0.08 +14.0 9
2014-04-13 @ Ordabasy L 0-151.8 1552 1421 38.76% 27.60% 33.63%+0.08 -14.0 11
2014-04-13 Irtysh W 4-251.1 1361 1461 37.91% 27.62% 34.47%+0.05 +18.7 8
2014-04-13 @ Kaisar L 2-451.1 1461 1361 34.47% 27.62% 37.91%-0.05 -18.7 8
2014-04-13 Shakter Karagandy L 1-255.8 1416 1493 41.19% 27.53% 31.27%+0.16 -13.8 8
2014-04-13 @ Zhetysu W 2-155.8 1493 1416 31.27% 27.53% 41.19%-0.16 +13.8 13
2014-04-13 Taraz W 3-139.7 1403 1330 58.76% 25.20% 16.04%+0.82 +11.1 7
2014-04-13 @ Kairat L 1-339.7 1330 1403 16.04% 25.20% 58.76%-0.82 -11.1 4
2014-04-13 Tobol W 1-040.8 1521 1396 63.57% 23.79% 12.64%+1.05 +5.4 14
2014-04-13 @ Astana L 0-140.8 1396 1521 12.64% 23.79% 63.57%-1.05 -5.4 5
2014-04-13 Spartak W 2-135.8 1391 1081 76.96% 17.57% 5.46%+1.88 +2.0 11
2014-04-13 @ Atyrau L 1-235.8 1081 1391 5.46% 17.57% 76.96%-1.88 -2.0 1
2014-04-19 Astana L 3-464.5 1443 1526 40.26% 27.56% 32.17%+0.13 -12.5 8
2014-04-19 @ Irtysh W 4-364.5 1526 1443 32.17% 27.56% 40.26%-0.13 +12.5 17
2014-04-19 Atyrau D 3-363.9 1319 1393 41.54% 27.52% 30.94%+0.17 -0.5 5
2014-04-19 @ Taraz D 3-363.9 1393 1319 30.94% 27.52% 41.54%-0.17 +0.5 12
2014-04-19 Kairat D 2-262.3 1391 1414 48.19% 27.04% 24.77%+0.40 -1.3 6
2014-04-19 @ Tobol D 2-262.3 1414 1391 24.77% 27.04% 48.19%-0.40 +1.3 8
2014-04-19 Kaisar W 3-034.6 1538 1380 66.36% 22.77% 10.87%+1.20 +12.7 14
2014-04-19 @ Aktobe L 0-334.6 1380 1538 10.87% 22.77% 66.36%-1.20 -12.7 8
2014-04-19 Ordabasy W 3-145.2 1507 1435 58.69% 25.22% 16.09%+0.82 +11.2 16
2014-04-19 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-345.2 1435 1507 16.09% 25.22% 58.69%-0.82 -11.2 9
2014-04-19 Zhetysu D 1-154.3 1079 1403 14.20% 24.51% 61.29%-0.94 +3.7 2
2014-04-19 @ Spartak D 1-154.3 1403 1079 61.29% 24.51% 14.20%+0.94 -3.7 9
2014-04-27 Aktobe L 1-264.6 1539 1550 49.57% 26.88% 23.55%+0.45 -16.0 17
2014-04-27 @ Astana W 2-164.6 1550 1539 23.55% 26.88% 49.57%-0.45 +16.0 17
2014-04-27 Atyrau W 1-040.9 1399 1394 51.59% 26.61% 21.80%+0.52 +8.9 12
2014-04-27 @ Zhetysu L 0-140.9 1394 1399 21.80% 26.61% 51.59%-0.52 -8.9 12
2014-04-27 Irtysh W 2-148.5 1415 1430 49.19% 26.92% 23.89%+0.43 +9.1 11
2014-04-27 @ Kairat L 1-248.5 1430 1415 23.89% 26.92% 49.19%-0.43 -9.1 8
2014-04-27 Shakter Karagandy W 1-049.6 1367 1518 30.85% 27.51% 41.63%-0.17 +14.8 11
2014-04-27 @ Kaisar L 0-149.6 1518 1367 41.63% 27.51% 30.85%+0.17 -14.8 16
2014-04-27 Taraz W 1-037.3 1389 1319 58.59% 25.24% 16.17%+0.81 +6.9 9
2014-04-27 @ Tobol L 0-137.3 1319 1389 16.17% 25.24% 58.59%-0.81 -6.9 5
2014-04-27 Spartak W 2-135.3 1424 1083 78.78% 16.48% 4.74%+2.02 +1.7 12
2014-04-27 @ Ordabasy L 1-235.3 1083 1424 4.74% 16.48% 78.78%-2.02 -1.7 2
2014-05-01 Astana D 0-059.2 1503 1523 48.68% 26.98% 24.34%+0.41 -2.0 17
2014-05-01 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.2 1523 1503 24.34% 26.98% 48.68%-0.41 +2.0 18
2014-05-01 Kairat W 1-043.0 1566 1424 65.07% 23.26% 11.67%+1.13 +5.0 20
2014-05-01 @ Aktobe L 0-143.0 1424 1566 11.67% 23.26% 65.07%-1.13 -5.0 11
2014-05-01 Kaisar D 1-154.0 1081 1382 15.77% 25.11% 59.12%-0.84 +3.4 3
2014-05-01 @ Spartak D 1-154.0 1382 1081 59.12% 25.11% 15.77%+0.84 -3.4 12
2014-05-01 Ordabasy D 1-156.9 1385 1426 45.93% 27.25% 26.82%+0.32 -1.4 13
2014-05-01 @ Atyrau D 1-156.9 1426 1385 26.82% 27.25% 45.93%-0.32 +1.4 13
2014-05-01 Tobol L 0-345.6 1421 1396 53.78% 26.26% 19.96%+0.61 -50.0 8
2014-05-01 @ Irtysh W 3-045.6 1396 1421 19.96% 26.26% 53.78%-0.61 +50.0 12
2014-05-01 Zhetysu W 1-043.5 1312 1408 38.48% 27.61% 33.91%+0.07 +12.7 8
2014-05-01 @ Taraz L 0-143.5 1408 1312 33.91% 27.61% 38.48%-0.07 -12.7 12
2014-05-06 Aktobe L 0-248.7 1446 1571 34.36% 27.62% 38.03%-0.06 -24.1 12
2014-05-06 @ Tobol W 2-048.7 1571 1446 38.03% 27.62% 34.36%+0.06 +24.1 23
2014-05-06 Atyrau W 2-146.2 1378 1383 50.40% 26.77% 22.83%+0.48 +8.8 15
2014-05-06 @ Kaisar L 1-246.2 1383 1378 22.83% 26.77% 50.40%-0.48 -8.8 13
2014-05-06 Shakter Karagandy W 2-044.5 1419 1501 40.43% 27.56% 32.01%+0.13 +22.9 14
2014-05-06 @ Kairat L 0-244.5 1501 1419 32.01% 27.56% 40.43%-0.13 -22.9 17
2014-05-06 Taraz W 2-034.5 1371 1324 56.13% 25.81% 18.06%+0.71 +14.3 11
2014-05-06 @ Irtysh L 0-234.5 1324 1371 18.06% 25.81% 56.13%-0.71 -14.3 8
2014-05-06 Spartak W 5-023.6 1525 1084 83.82% 13.20% 2.98%+2.46 +4.7 21
2014-05-06 @ Astana L 0-523.6 1084 1525 2.98% 13.20% 83.82%-2.46 -4.7 3
2014-05-06 Zhetysu D 1-157.6 1427 1395 54.57% 26.11% 19.31%+0.64 -2.7 14
2014-05-06 @ Ordabasy D 1-157.6 1395 1427 19.31% 26.11% 54.57%-0.64 +2.7 13
2014-05-10 Astana W 1-050.3 1375 1529 30.39% 27.49% 42.12%-0.19 +14.9 16
2014-05-10 @ Atyrau L 0-150.3 1529 1375 42.12% 27.49% 30.39%+0.19 -14.9 21
2014-05-10 Irtysh W 3-035.7 1596 1385 70.36% 21.05% 8.59%+1.44 +9.8 26
2014-05-10 @ Aktobe L 0-335.7 1385 1596 8.59% 21.05% 70.36%-1.44 -9.8 11
2014-05-10 Kairat L 2-535.5 1080 1442 11.91% 23.40% 64.69%-1.11 -10.2 3
2014-05-10 @ Spartak W 5-235.5 1442 1080 64.69% 23.40% 11.91%+1.11 +10.2 17
2014-05-10 Kaisar L 1-255.4 1398 1387 52.22% 26.52% 21.27%+0.55 -16.8 13
2014-05-10 @ Zhetysu W 2-155.4 1387 1398 21.27% 26.52% 52.22%-0.55 +16.8 18
2014-05-10 Ordabasy W 2-150.1 1310 1424 35.88% 27.63% 36.50%-0.01 +12.6 11
2014-05-10 @ Taraz L 1-250.1 1424 1310 36.50% 27.63% 35.88%+0.01 -12.6 14
2014-05-10 Tobol W 4-141.4 1479 1422 57.15% 25.58% 17.26%+0.75 +16.8 20
2014-05-10 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-441.4 1422 1479 17.26% 25.58% 57.15%-0.75 -16.8 12
2014-05-18 Atyrau D 0-051.9 1405 1389 52.79% 26.42% 20.79%+0.57 -2.7 13
2014-05-18 @ Tobol D 0-051.9 1389 1405 20.79% 26.42% 52.79%-0.57 +2.7 17
2014-05-18 Kaisar L 0-145.6 1323 1404 40.56% 27.56% 31.89%+0.14 -14.5 11
2014-05-18 @ Taraz W 1-045.6 1404 1323 31.89% 27.56% 40.56%-0.14 +14.5 21
2014-05-18 Ordabasy D 1-161.2 1514 1412 61.59% 24.42% 13.99%+0.96 -3.8 22
2014-05-18 @ Astana D 1-161.2 1412 1514 13.99% 24.42% 61.59%-0.96 +3.8 15
2014-05-18 Shakter Karagandy W 4-042.1 1605 1495 62.27% 24.21% 13.52%+0.99 +20.7 29
2014-05-18 @ Aktobe L 0-442.1 1495 1605 13.52% 24.21% 62.27%-0.99 -20.7 20
2014-05-18 Spartak W 5-025.0 1375 1069 76.71% 17.72% 5.57%+1.86 +9.7 14
2014-05-18 @ Irtysh L 0-525.0 1069 1375 5.57% 17.72% 76.71%-1.86 -9.7 3
2014-05-18 Zhetysu W 2-145.3 1452 1381 58.61% 25.24% 16.15%+0.82 +6.5 20
2014-05-18 @ Kairat L 1-245.3 1381 1452 16.15% 25.24% 58.61%-0.82 -6.5 13
2014-05-24 Aktobe L 0-131.0 1060 1626 4.73% 16.48% 78.79%-2.02 -1.8 3
2014-05-24 @ Spartak W 1-031.0 1626 1060 78.79% 16.48% 4.73%+2.02 +1.8 32
2014-05-24 Astana W 1-048.6 1418 1511 39.05% 27.60% 33.35%+0.09 +12.5 24
2014-05-24 @ Kaisar L 0-148.6 1511 1418 33.35% 27.60% 39.05%-0.09 -12.5 22
2014-05-24 Irtysh L 0-149.6 1392 1385 51.79% 26.58% 21.63%+0.53 -17.7 17
2014-05-24 @ Atyrau W 1-049.6 1385 1392 21.63% 26.58% 51.79%-0.53 +17.7 17
2014-05-24 Kairat W 1-044.8 1416 1459 45.68% 27.27% 27.05%+0.31 +10.7 18
2014-05-24 @ Ordabasy L 0-144.8 1459 1416 27.05% 27.27% 45.68%-0.31 -10.7 20
2014-05-24 Taraz W 1-036.1 1475 1308 67.04% 22.50% 10.46%+1.24 +4.4 23
2014-05-24 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-136.1 1308 1475 10.46% 22.50% 67.04%-1.24 -4.4 11
2014-05-24 Tobol L 1-254.0 1375 1403 47.61% 27.10% 25.30%+0.38 -15.5 13
2014-05-24 @ Zhetysu W 2-154.0 1403 1375 25.30% 27.10% 47.61%-0.38 +15.5 16
2014-05-28 Astana L 1-248.0 1304 1498 25.57% 27.13% 47.30%-0.37 -9.6 11
2014-05-28 @ Taraz W 2-148.0 1498 1304 47.30% 27.13% 25.57%+0.37 +9.6 25
2014-05-28 Atyrau D 0-060.5 1628 1374 73.36% 19.57% 7.07%+1.63 -6.0 33
2014-05-28 @ Aktobe D 0-060.5 1374 1628 7.07% 19.57% 73.36%-1.63 +6.0 18
2014-05-28 Kaisar W 1-042.8 1448 1431 52.93% 26.40% 20.67%+0.58 +8.5 23
2014-05-28 @ Kairat L 0-142.8 1431 1448 20.67% 26.40% 52.93%-0.58 -8.5 24
2014-05-28 Ordabasy W 2-148.2 1418 1426 49.99% 26.83% 23.18%+0.46 +8.9 19
2014-05-28 @ Tobol L 1-248.2 1426 1418 23.18% 26.83% 49.99%-0.46 -8.9 18
2014-05-28 Spartak W 1-028.6 1479 1058 82.93% 13.81% 3.26%+2.37 +1.2 26
2014-05-28 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-128.6 1058 1479 3.26% 13.81% 82.93%-2.37 -1.2 3
2014-05-28 Zhetysu W 1-039.0 1403 1359 55.81% 25.87% 18.31%+0.69 +7.7 20
2014-05-28 @ Irtysh L 0-139.0 1359 1403 18.31% 25.87% 55.81%-0.69 -7.7 13
2014-06-01 Aktobe W 1-056.5 1352 1622 18.14% 25.83% 56.03%-0.70 +18.9 16
2014-06-01 @ Zhetysu L 0-156.5 1622 1352 56.03% 25.83% 18.14%+0.70 -18.9 33
2014-06-01 Irtysh W 2-147.2 1417 1410 51.79% 26.58% 21.63%+0.53 +8.4 21
2014-06-01 @ Ordabasy L 1-247.2 1410 1417 21.63% 26.58% 51.79%-0.53 -8.4 20
2014-06-01 Kairat D 2-267.6 1508 1457 56.61% 25.71% 17.69%+0.73 -2.2 26
2014-06-01 @ Astana D 2-267.6 1457 1508 17.69% 25.71% 56.61%-0.73 +2.2 24
2014-06-01 Shakter Karagandy W 3-256.9 1380 1480 37.97% 27.62% 34.41%+0.06 +11.5 21
2014-06-01 @ Atyrau L 2-356.9 1480 1380 34.41% 27.62% 37.97%-0.06 -11.4 26
2014-06-01 Taraz L 0-137.3 1057 1294 21.09% 26.48% 52.43%-0.56 -8.7 3
2014-06-01 @ Spartak W 1-037.3 1294 1057 52.43% 26.48% 21.09%+0.56 +8.7 14
2014-06-01 Tobol D 0-053.2 1422 1427 50.44% 26.77% 22.79%+0.48 -2.3 25
2014-06-01 @ Kaisar D 0-053.2 1427 1422 22.79% 26.77% 50.44%-0.48 +2.3 20
2014-06-14 Astana D 1-160.6 1429 1505 41.27% 27.53% 31.21%+0.16 -0.7 21
2014-06-14 @ Tobol D 1-160.6 1505 1429 31.21% 27.53% 41.27%-0.16 +0.7 27
2014-06-14 Atyrau W 2-154.9 1048 1392 12.96% 23.95% 63.09%-1.03 +19.8 6
2014-06-14 @ Spartak L 1-254.9 1392 1048 63.09% 23.95% 12.96%+1.03 -19.8 21
2014-06-14 Kairat L 2-353.2 1303 1459 30.22% 27.48% 42.30%-0.19 -10.4 14
2014-06-14 @ Taraz W 3-253.2 1459 1303 42.30% 27.48% 30.22%+0.19 +10.4 27
2014-06-14 Kaisar D 1-157.3 1402 1420 48.82% 26.97% 24.21%+0.42 -1.8 21
2014-06-14 @ Irtysh D 1-157.3 1420 1402 24.21% 26.97% 48.82%-0.42 +1.8 26
2014-06-14 Ordabasy D 1-165.6 1603 1426 67.87% 22.16% 9.97%+1.29 -4.7 34
2014-06-14 @ Aktobe D 1-165.6 1426 1603 9.97% 22.16% 67.87%-1.29 +4.7 22
2014-06-14 Zhetysu W 3-033.8 1469 1370 61.22% 24.53% 14.25%+0.94 +16.7 29
2014-06-14 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-333.8 1370 1469 14.25% 24.53% 61.22%-0.94 -16.7 16
2014-06-22 Aktobe D 2-269.2 1422 1598 27.68% 27.32% 45.00%-0.28 +0.9 27
2014-06-22 @ Kaisar D 2-269.2 1598 1422 45.00% 27.32% 27.68%+0.28 -0.9 35
2014-06-22 Irtysh W 5-347.8 1506 1400 61.91% 24.32% 13.77%+0.97 +8.1 30
2014-06-22 @ Astana L 3-547.8 1400 1506 13.77% 24.32% 61.91%-0.97 -8.1 21
2014-06-22 Shakter Karagandy W 2-152.2 1431 1486 44.12% 27.38% 28.50%+0.25 +10.5 25
2014-06-22 @ Ordabasy L 1-252.2 1486 1431 28.50% 27.38% 44.12%-0.25 -10.5 29
2014-06-22 Taraz W 3-031.2 1372 1292 59.46% 25.02% 15.52%+0.85 +18.1 24
2014-06-22 @ Atyrau L 0-331.2 1292 1372 15.52% 25.02% 59.46%-0.85 -18.1 14
2014-06-22 Tobol W 3-144.6 1469 1429 55.51% 25.93% 18.56%+0.68 +12.7 30
2014-06-22 @ Kairat L 1-344.6 1429 1469 18.56% 25.93% 55.51%-0.68 -12.7 21
2014-06-22 Spartak W 1-030.5 1354 1068 75.47% 18.43% 6.10%+1.77 +2.4 19
2014-06-22 @ Zhetysu L 0-130.5 1068 1354 6.10% 18.43% 75.47%-1.77 -2.4 6
2014-06-27 Astana D 1-167.7 1597 1514 59.77% 24.94% 15.29%+0.87 -3.5 36
2014-06-27 @ Aktobe D 1-167.7 1514 1597 15.29% 24.94% 59.77%-0.87 +3.5 31
2014-06-27 Kairat L 0-148.6 1392 1482 39.39% 27.59% 33.02%+0.10 -14.1 21
2014-06-27 @ Irtysh W 1-048.6 1482 1392 33.02% 27.59% 39.39%-0.10 +14.1 33
2014-06-27 Kaisar W 4-141.5 1475 1423 56.72% 25.68% 17.60%+0.73 +17.1 32
2014-06-27 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-441.5 1423 1475 17.60% 25.68% 56.72%-0.73 -17.1 27
2014-06-28 Ordabasy W 2-046.6 1065 1441 11.23% 23.00% 65.78%-1.17 +41.0 9
2014-06-28 @ Spartak L 0-246.6 1441 1065 65.78% 23.00% 11.23%+1.17 -41.0 25
2014-06-28 Tobol D 1-154.7 1274 1416 32.13% 27.56% 40.31%-0.13 +0.6 15
2014-06-28 @ Taraz D 1-154.7 1416 1274 40.31% 27.56% 32.13%+0.13 -0.6 22
2014-06-28 Zhetysu L 1-255.3 1390 1356 54.79% 26.07% 19.13%+0.65 -17.5 24
2014-06-28 @ Atyrau W 2-155.3 1356 1390 19.13% 26.07% 54.79%-0.65 +17.5 22
2014-07-05 Atyrau W 1-039.7 1400 1373 54.06% 26.21% 19.73%+0.62 +8.2 28
2014-07-05 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.7 1373 1400 19.73% 26.21% 54.06%-0.62 -8.2 24
2014-07-05 Taraz W 1-035.9 1374 1275 61.26% 24.52% 14.22%+0.94 +6.1 25
2014-07-05 @ Zhetysu L 0-135.9 1275 1374 14.22% 24.52% 61.26%-0.94 -6.1 15
2014-07-05 Spartak D 1-156.3 1406 1107 76.29% 17.96% 5.75%+1.83 -5.7 28
2014-07-05 @ Kaisar D 1-156.3 1107 1406 5.75% 17.96% 76.29%-1.83 +5.7 10
2014-07-06 Aktobe W 7-151.6 1496 1594 38.26% 27.61% 34.13%+0.06 +55.0 36
2014-07-06 @ Kairat L 1-751.6 1594 1496 34.13% 27.61% 38.26%-0.06 -55.0 36
2014-07-06 Irtysh D 1-156.9 1415 1378 55.15% 26.01% 18.85%+0.67 -2.8 23
2014-07-06 @ Tobol D 1-156.9 1378 1415 18.85% 26.01% 55.15%-0.67 +2.8 22
2014-07-06 Shakter Karagandy W 4-041.4 1518 1492 53.88% 26.24% 19.88%+0.61 +29.6 34
2014-07-06 @ Astana L 0-441.4 1492 1518 19.88% 26.24% 53.88%-0.61 -29.6 32
2014-07-11 Tobol W 3-144.0 1539 1412 63.72% 23.74% 12.54%+1.06 +8.8 39
2014-07-11 @ Aktobe L 1-344.0 1412 1539 12.54% 23.74% 63.72%-1.06 -8.8 23
2014-07-12 Irtysh W 5-141.1 1269 1381 36.24% 27.63% 36.13%+0.00 +39.5 18
2014-07-12 @ Taraz L 1-541.1 1381 1269 36.13% 27.63% 36.24%+0.00 -39.5 22
2014-07-12 Ordabasy L 0-148.7 1380 1408 47.54% 27.10% 25.36%+0.37 -16.4 25
2014-07-12 @ Zhetysu W 1-048.7 1408 1380 25.36% 27.10% 47.54%-0.37 +16.4 31
2014-07-13 Astana D 1-156.3 1112 1547 8.58% 21.05% 70.38%-1.44 +5.0 11
2014-07-13 @ Spartak D 1-156.3 1547 1112 70.38% 21.05% 8.58%+1.44 -5.0 35
2014-07-13 Kairat W 1-051.5 1463 1551 39.59% 27.58% 32.83%+0.11 +12.4 35
2014-07-13 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-151.5 1551 1463 32.83% 27.58% 39.59%-0.11 -12.4 36
2014-07-13 Kaisar L 1-350.0 1365 1400 46.64% 27.19% 26.17%+0.34 -26.4 24
2014-07-13 @ Atyrau W 3-150.0 1400 1365 26.17% 27.19% 46.64%-0.34 +26.4 31
2014-07-26 Aktobe D 1-159.2 1341 1548 24.24% 26.97% 48.79%-0.42 +1.8 23
2014-07-26 @ Irtysh D 1-159.2 1548 1341 48.79% 26.97% 24.24%+0.42 -1.8 40
2014-07-26 Taraz D 1-156.4 1425 1308 62.83% 24.03% 13.14%+1.02 -3.9 32
2014-07-26 @ Ordabasy D 1-156.4 1308 1425 13.14% 24.03% 62.83%-1.02 +4.0 19
2014-07-26 Zhetysu D 0-052.1 1426 1363 57.82% 25.43% 16.75%+0.78 -3.6 32
2014-07-26 @ Kaisar D 0-052.1 1363 1426 16.75% 25.43% 57.82%-0.78 +3.6 26
2014-07-27 Atyrau W 3-032.4 1542 1338 69.92% 21.26% 8.82%+1.41 +10.1 38
2014-07-27 @ Astana L 0-332.4 1338 1542 8.82% 21.26% 69.92%-1.41 -10.1 24
2014-07-27 Shakter Karagandy W 2-042.6 1404 1475 41.94% 27.50% 30.56%+0.18 +22.1 26
2014-07-27 @ Tobol L 0-242.6 1475 1404 30.56% 27.50% 41.94%-0.18 -22.1 35
2014-07-27 Spartak W 4-128.7 1539 1117 82.94% 13.80% 3.26%+2.38 +2.7 39
2014-07-27 @ Kairat L 1-428.7 1117 1539 3.26% 13.80% 82.94%-2.38 -2.7 11
2014-08-02 Taraz W 2-033.0 1546 1312 72.01% 20.26% 7.73%+1.54 +6.0 43
2014-08-02 @ Aktobe L 0-233.0 1312 1546 7.73% 20.26% 72.01%-1.54 -6.0 19
2014-08-03 Astana D 0-055.2 1367 1552 26.59% 27.23% 46.18%-0.33 +1.6 27
2014-08-03 @ Zhetysu D 0-055.2 1552 1367 46.18% 27.23% 26.59%+0.33 -1.6 39
2014-08-03 Irtysh D 2-263.0 1453 1343 62.26% 24.21% 13.52%+0.99 -2.9 36
2014-08-03 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-263.0 1343 1453 13.52% 24.21% 62.26%-0.99 +2.9 24
2014-08-03 Kairat L 0-338.1 1328 1541 23.50% 26.87% 49.63%-0.45 -26.1 24
2014-08-03 @ Atyrau W 3-038.1 1541 1328 49.63% 26.87% 23.50%+0.45 +26.1 42
2014-08-03 Kaisar W 2-148.0 1421 1423 50.71% 26.73% 22.55%+0.49 +8.7 35
2014-08-03 @ Ordabasy L 1-248.0 1423 1421 22.55% 26.73% 50.71%-0.49 -8.7 32
2014-08-03 Tobol W 2-154.6 1114 1426 15.04% 24.84% 60.12%-0.89 +19.0 14
2014-08-03 @ Spartak L 1-254.6 1426 1114 60.12% 24.84% 15.04%+0.89 -19.0 26

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-08-23 Atyrau L 1-256.3 1407 1302 61.81% 24.35% 13.83%+0.97 -19.5 0
2014-08-23 @ Tobol W 2-156.3 1302 1407 13.83% 24.35% 61.81%-0.97 +19.5 3
2014-08-23 Taraz D 0-048.4 1133 1306 28.11% 27.35% 44.53%-0.27 +1.3 1
2014-08-23 @ Spartak D 0-048.4 1306 1133 44.53% 27.35% 28.11%+0.27 -1.3 1
2014-08-23 Zhetysu D 1-155.2 1346 1369 48.26% 27.03% 24.72%+0.40 -1.7 1
2014-08-23 @ Irtysh D 1-155.2 1369 1346 24.72% 27.03% 48.26%-0.40 +1.7 1
2014-08-24 Kaisar D 0-053.8 1450 1414 55.00% 26.03% 18.97%+0.66 -3.1 1
2014-08-24 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-053.8 1414 1450 18.97% 26.03% 55.00%-0.66 +3.1 1
2014-08-29 Irtysh W 2-145.5 1321 1344 48.23% 27.03% 24.74%+0.40 +9.4 6
2014-08-29 @ Atyrau L 1-245.5 1344 1321 24.74% 27.03% 48.23%-0.40 -9.4 1
2014-08-29 Kaisar L 0-151.4 1429 1417 52.36% 26.49% 21.14%+0.55 -17.8 0
2014-08-29 @ Ordabasy W 1-051.4 1417 1429 21.14% 26.49% 52.36%-0.55 +17.8 4
2014-08-29 Shakter Karagandy W 6-141.6 1567 1447 63.20% 23.91% 12.88%+1.04 +20.1 3
2014-08-29 @ Kairat L 1-641.6 1447 1567 12.88% 23.91% 63.20%-1.04 -20.1 1
2014-08-29 Tobol W 2-153.1 1135 1387 19.67% 26.20% 54.13%-0.62 +17.3 4
2014-08-29 @ Spartak L 1-253.1 1387 1135 54.13% 26.20% 19.67%+0.62 -17.3 0
2014-08-29 Zhetysu W 2-038.3 1305 1370 42.75% 27.46% 29.79%+0.21 +21.7 4
2014-08-29 @ Taraz L 0-238.3 1370 1305 29.79% 27.46% 42.75%-0.21 -21.7 1
2014-09-14 Aktobe D 1-162.1 1427 1552 34.39% 27.62% 38.00%-0.06 +0.2 2
2014-09-14 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-162.1 1552 1427 38.00% 27.62% 34.39%+0.06 -0.2 1
2014-09-14 Atyrau W 1-038.6 1349 1331 53.02% 26.39% 20.59%+0.58 +8.5 4
2014-09-14 @ Zhetysu L 0-138.6 1331 1349 20.59% 26.39% 53.02%-0.58 -8.5 6
2014-09-14 Kairat L 0-247.8 1435 1588 30.68% 27.51% 41.81%-0.18 -22.2 4
2014-09-14 @ Kaisar W 2-047.8 1588 1435 41.81% 27.51% 30.68%+0.18 +22.2 6
2014-09-14 Ordabasy W 5-036.9 1551 1411 64.83% 23.35% 11.82%+1.12 +22.3 3
2014-09-14 @ Astana L 0-536.9 1411 1551 11.82% 23.35% 64.83%-1.12 -22.3 0
2014-09-14 Taraz W 3-032.7 1370 1327 55.80% 25.88% 18.33%+0.69 +21.1 3
2014-09-14 @ Tobol L 0-332.7 1327 1370 18.33% 25.88% 55.80%-0.69 -21.1 4
2014-09-14 Spartak W 3-243.0 1335 1152 68.30% 21.98% 9.72%+1.31 +3.7 4
2014-09-14 @ Irtysh L 2-343.0 1152 1335 9.72% 21.98% 68.30%-1.31 -3.7 4
2014-09-20 Atyrau W 2-144.9 1306 1322 48.99% 26.95% 24.07%+0.43 +9.2 7
2014-09-20 @ Taraz L 1-244.9 1322 1306 24.07% 26.95% 48.99%-0.43 -9.2 6
2014-09-20 Irtysh D 0-050.9 1391 1339 56.76% 25.67% 17.57%+0.73 -3.4 4
2014-09-20 @ Tobol D 0-050.9 1339 1391 17.57% 25.67% 56.76%-0.73 +3.4 5
2014-09-20 Kairat L 0-147.7 1389 1610 22.75% 26.76% 50.48%-0.48 -9.3 0
2014-09-20 @ Ordabasy W 1-047.7 1610 1389 50.48% 26.76% 22.75%+0.48 +9.3 9
2014-09-20 Kaisar D 0-058.0 1552 1413 64.76% 23.37% 11.86%+1.12 -4.7 2
2014-09-20 @ Aktobe D 0-058.0 1413 1552 11.86% 23.37% 64.76%-1.12 +4.7 5
2014-09-20 Shakter Karagandy W 2-039.9 1573 1427 65.38% 23.14% 11.47%+1.15 +9.2 6
2014-09-20 @ Astana L 0-239.9 1427 1573 11.47% 23.14% 65.38%-1.15 -9.2 2
2014-09-20 Zhetysu W 3-148.2 1148 1357 23.99% 26.94% 49.07%-0.43 +27.5 7
2014-09-20 @ Spartak L 1-348.2 1357 1148 49.07% 26.94% 23.99%+0.43 -27.5 4
2014-09-28 Aktobe W 2-047.4 1619 1547 58.72% 25.21% 16.07%+0.82 +12.9 12
2014-09-28 @ Kairat L 0-247.4 1547 1619 16.07% 25.21% 58.72%-0.82 -12.9 2
2014-09-28 Astana D 1-163.0 1418 1582 29.11% 27.42% 43.46%-0.23 +1.0 6
2014-09-28 @ Kaisar D 1-163.0 1582 1418 43.46% 27.42% 29.11%+0.23 -1.0 7
2014-09-28 Ordabasy L 2-361.0 1418 1380 55.22% 25.99% 18.79%+0.67 -16.7 2
2014-09-28 @ Shakter Karagandy W 3-261.0 1380 1418 18.79% 25.99% 55.22%-0.67 +16.7 3
2014-09-28 Taraz D 0-049.9 1342 1315 54.05% 26.21% 19.74%+0.62 -2.9 6
2014-09-28 @ Irtysh D 0-049.9 1315 1342 19.74% 26.21% 54.05%-0.62 +2.9 8
2014-09-28 Tobol D 0-050.2 1330 1388 43.70% 27.41% 28.89%+0.24 -1.2 5
2014-09-28 @ Zhetysu D 0-050.2 1388 1330 28.89% 27.41% 43.70%-0.24 +1.2 5
2014-09-28 Spartak D 1-154.6 1313 1176 64.63% 23.42% 11.95%+1.11 -4.2 7
2014-09-28 @ Atyrau D 1-154.6 1176 1313 11.95% 23.42% 64.63%-1.11 +4.2 8
2014-10-03 Taraz L 0-342.5 1328 1318 52.22% 26.52% 21.27%+0.55 -48.7 5
2014-10-03 @ Zhetysu W 3-042.5 1318 1328 21.27% 26.52% 52.22%-0.55 +48.7 11
2014-10-04 Aktobe W 6-147.2 1581 1534 56.22% 25.79% 18.00%+0.71 +27.6 10
2014-10-04 @ Astana L 1-647.2 1534 1581 18.00% 25.79% 56.22%-0.71 -27.6 2
2014-10-04 Atyrau W 2-034.5 1339 1309 54.38% 26.15% 19.47%+0.63 +15.3 9
2014-10-04 @ Irtysh L 0-234.5 1309 1339 19.47% 26.15% 54.38%-0.63 -15.3 7
2014-10-04 Kairat D 0-059.6 1401 1632 21.73% 26.60% 51.67%-0.53 +2.5 3
2014-10-04 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.6 1632 1401 51.67% 26.60% 21.73%+0.53 -2.5 13
2014-10-04 Ordabasy L 0-150.8 1419 1397 53.49% 26.31% 20.20%+0.60 -18.2 6
2014-10-04 @ Kaisar W 1-050.8 1397 1419 20.20% 26.31% 53.49%-0.60 +18.2 6
2014-10-04 Spartak W 1-032.6 1389 1180 70.25% 21.11% 8.65%+1.43 +3.6 8
2014-10-04 @ Tobol L 0-132.6 1180 1389 8.65% 21.11% 70.25%-1.43 -3.6 8
2014-10-18 Astana L 1-255.2 1415 1609 25.60% 27.13% 47.28%-0.36 -9.6 6
2014-10-18 @ Ordabasy W 2-155.2 1609 1415 47.28% 27.13% 25.60%+0.36 +9.6 13
2014-10-18 Kaisar D 1-166.2 1629 1401 71.68% 20.42% 7.90%+1.52 -5.2 14
2014-10-18 @ Kairat D 1-166.2 1401 1629 7.90% 20.42% 71.68%-1.52 +5.2 7
2014-10-18 Shakter Karagandy W 3-143.2 1506 1404 61.61% 24.41% 13.97%+0.96 +9.8 5
2014-10-18 @ Aktobe L 1-343.2 1404 1506 13.97% 24.41% 61.61%-0.96 -9.8 3
2014-10-19 Irtysh W 2-041.8 1177 1354 27.52% 27.31% 45.17%-0.29 +29.7 11
2014-10-19 @ Spartak L 0-241.8 1354 1177 45.17% 27.31% 27.52%+0.29 -29.7 9
2014-10-19 Tobol D 1-155.9 1366 1393 47.82% 27.07% 25.11%+0.38 -1.7 12
2014-10-19 @ Taraz D 1-155.9 1393 1366 25.11% 27.07% 47.82%-0.38 +1.7 9
2014-10-19 Zhetysu W 1-037.9 1294 1280 52.57% 26.46% 20.97%+0.56 +8.7 10
2014-10-19 @ Atyrau L 0-137.9 1280 1294 20.97% 26.46% 52.57%-0.56 -8.7 5
2014-10-22 Kairat W 5-152.7 1619 1624 50.32% 26.78% 22.89%+0.48 +27.8 16
2014-10-22 @ Astana L 1-552.7 1624 1619 22.89% 26.78% 50.32%-0.48 -27.8 14
2014-10-22 Ordabasy W 4-140.6 1516 1405 62.35% 24.18% 13.46%+0.99 +13.3 8
2014-10-22 @ Aktobe L 1-440.6 1405 1516 13.46% 24.18% 62.35%-0.99 -13.3 6
2014-10-25 Taraz W 3-251.6 1302 1365 43.12% 27.44% 29.44%+0.22 +10.2 13
2014-10-25 @ Atyrau L 2-351.6 1365 1302 29.44% 27.44% 43.12%-0.22 -10.2 12
2014-10-25 Tobol D 1-155.1 1325 1394 42.17% 27.49% 30.34%+0.19 -0.8 10
2014-10-25 @ Irtysh D 1-155.1 1394 1325 30.34% 27.49% 42.17%-0.19 +0.8 10
2014-10-26 Aktobe D 2-266.0 1406 1529 34.57% 27.62% 37.81%-0.05 +0.2 8
2014-10-26 @ Kaisar D 2-266.0 1529 1406 37.81% 27.62% 34.57%+0.05 -0.2 9
2014-10-26 Astana L 0-244.7 1394 1646 19.68% 26.20% 54.13%-0.62 -15.5 3
2014-10-26 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-044.7 1646 1394 54.13% 26.20% 19.68%+0.62 +15.4 19
2014-10-26 Ordabasy W 2-038.1 1596 1392 69.94% 21.25% 8.81%+1.41 +7.0 17
2014-10-26 @ Kairat L 0-238.1 1392 1596 8.81% 21.25% 69.94%-1.41 -7.0 6
2014-10-26 Spartak W 2-141.5 1271 1206 57.99% 25.39% 16.62%+0.79 +6.6 8
2014-10-26 @ Zhetysu L 1-241.5 1206 1271 16.62% 25.39% 57.99%-0.79 -6.6 11
2014-11-01 Atyrau W 3-144.6 1200 1312 36.13% 27.63% 36.24%+0.00 +21.7 14
2014-11-01 @ Spartak L 1-344.6 1312 1200 36.24% 27.63% 36.13%+0.00 -21.7 13
2014-11-01 Irtysh L 0-343.4 1355 1324 54.45% 26.14% 19.42%+0.64 -50.5 12
2014-11-01 @ Taraz W 3-043.4 1324 1355 19.42% 26.14% 54.45%-0.64 +50.5 13
2014-11-01 Kairat W 1-055.0 1529 1603 41.55% 27.52% 30.93%+0.17 +11.8 12
2014-11-01 @ Aktobe L 0-155.0 1603 1529 30.93% 27.52% 41.55%-0.17 -11.8 17
2014-11-01 Kaisar W 3-038.0 1662 1406 73.54% 19.48% 6.99%+1.64 +7.8 22
2014-11-01 @ Astana L 0-338.0 1406 1662 6.99% 19.48% 73.54%-1.64 -7.8 8
2014-11-01 Shakter Karagandy W 3-250.4 1385 1378 51.73% 26.59% 21.68%+0.53 +8.0 9
2014-11-01 @ Ordabasy L 2-350.4 1378 1385 21.68% 26.59% 51.73%-0.53 -8.0 3
2014-11-01 Zhetysu W 2-032.2 1395 1278 62.93% 24.00% 13.07%+1.02 +10.5 13
2014-11-01 @ Tobol L 0-232.2 1278 1395 13.07% 24.00% 62.93%-1.02 -10.5 8
2014-11-05 Astana W 3-054.0 1541 1670 33.88% 27.61% 38.51%-0.07 +38.1 15
2014-11-05 @ Aktobe L 0-354.0 1670 1541 38.51% 27.61% 33.88%+0.07 -38.1 22
2014-11-09 Aktobe L 1-350.0 1393 1579 26.52% 27.22% 46.26%-0.33 -17.1 9
2014-11-09 @ Ordabasy W 3-150.0 1579 1393 46.26% 27.22% 26.52%+0.33 +17.1 18
2014-11-09 Astana L 2-371.9 1592 1632 46.06% 27.24% 26.70%+0.32 -14.3 17
2014-11-09 @ Kairat W 3-271.9 1632 1592 26.70% 27.24% 46.06%-0.32 +14.3 25
2014-11-09 Irtysh W 1-043.1 1267 1374 36.93% 27.63% 35.45%+0.02 +13.1 11
2014-11-09 @ Zhetysu L 0-143.1 1374 1267 35.45% 27.63% 36.93%-0.02 -13.1 13
2014-11-09 Shakter Karagandy W 2-145.2 1398 1370 54.10% 26.20% 19.70%+0.62 +7.7 11
2014-11-09 @ Kaisar L 1-245.2 1370 1398 19.70% 26.20% 54.10%-0.62 -7.7 3
2014-11-09 Tobol L 0-338.4 1291 1406 35.82% 27.63% 36.56%-0.01 -36.1 13
2014-11-09 @ Atyrau W 3-038.4 1406 1291 36.56% 27.63% 35.82%+0.01 +36.1 16
2014-11-09 Spartak W 1-035.5 1304 1221 59.74% 24.95% 15.31%+0.87 +6.5 15
2014-11-09 @ Taraz L 0-135.5 1221 1304 15.31% 24.95% 59.74%-0.87 -6.5 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-06-28 11.23% @ Spartak 1065 2 Ordabasy 1441 0
2 2014-06-14 12.96% @ Spartak 1048 2 Atyrau 1392 1
3 2014-08-23 13.83% Atyrau 1302 2 @ Tobol 1407 1
4 2014-08-03 15.04% @ Spartak 1114 2 Tobol 1426 1
5 2014-03-29 15.55% Atyrau 1383 1 @ Irtysh 1462 0
6 2014-03-29 15.78% Zhetysu 1387 2 @ Tobol 1463 0
7 2014-03-15 16.30% Atyrau 1364 1 @ Kairat 1433 0
8 2014-06-01 18.14% @ Zhetysu 1352 1 Aktobe 1622 0
9 2014-09-28 18.79% Ordabasy 1380 3 @ Shakter Karagandy 1418 2
10 2014-06-28 19.13% Zhetysu 1356 2 @ Atyrau 1390 1
11 2014-11-01 19.42% Irtysh 1324 3 @ Taraz 1355 0
12 2014-08-29 19.67% @ Spartak 1135 2 Tobol 1387 1
13 2014-05-01 19.96% Tobol 1396 3 @ Irtysh 1421 0
14 2014-10-04 20.20% Ordabasy 1397 1 @ Kaisar 1419 0
15 2014-08-29 21.14% Kaisar 1417 1 @ Ordabasy 1429 0
16 2014-05-10 21.27% Kaisar 1387 2 @ Zhetysu 1398 1
17 2014-10-03 21.27% Taraz 1318 3 @ Zhetysu 1328 0
18 2014-03-29 21.43% Ordabasy 1394 1 @ Kairat 1403 0
19 2014-05-24 21.63% Irtysh 1385 1 @ Atyrau 1392 0
20 2014-04-05 23.38% Kairat 1385 1 @ Kaisar 1375 0
21 2014-04-27 23.55% Aktobe 1550 2 @ Astana 1539 1
22 2014-09-20 23.99% @ Spartak 1148 3 Zhetysu 1357 1
23 2014-05-24 25.30% Tobol 1403 2 @ Zhetysu 1375 1
24 2014-07-12 25.36% Ordabasy 1408 1 @ Zhetysu 1380 0
25 2014-07-13 26.17% Kaisar 1400 3 @ Atyrau 1365 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-07-06 54.96 @ Kairat 7 1496 38.26% Aktobe 1 1594 34.13% 27.61%
2 2014-11-01 50.54 Irtysh 3 1324 19.42% @ Taraz 0 1355 54.45% 26.14%
3 2014-05-01 50.00 Tobol 3 1396 19.96% @ Irtysh 0 1421 53.78% 26.26%
4 2014-10-03 48.73 Taraz 3 1318 21.27% @ Zhetysu 0 1328 52.22% 26.52%
5 2014-03-29 45.96 Shakter Karagandy 5 1430 28.61% @ Taraz 1 1374 44.00% 27.39%
6 2014-06-28 41.04 @ Spartak 2 1065 11.23% Ordabasy 0 1441 65.78% 23.00%
7 2014-07-12 39.54 @ Taraz 5 1269 36.24% Irtysh 1 1381 36.13% 27.63%
8 2014-11-05 38.06 @ Aktobe 3 1541 33.88% Astana 0 1670 38.51% 27.61%
9 2014-03-29 37.42 Zhetysu 2 1387 15.78% @ Tobol 0 1463 59.10% 25.11%
10 2014-11-09 36.09 Tobol 3 1406 36.56% @ Atyrau 0 1291 35.82% 27.63%
11 2014-10-19 29.69 @ Spartak 2 1177 27.52% Irtysh 0 1354 45.17% 27.31%
12 2014-07-06 29.58 @ Astana 4 1518 53.88% Shakter Karagandy 0 1492 19.88% 26.24%
13 2014-10-22 27.78 @ Astana 5 1619 50.32% Kairat 1 1624 22.89% 26.78%
14 2014-10-04 27.64 @ Astana 6 1581 56.22% Aktobe 1 1534 18.00% 25.79%
15 2014-09-20 27.54 @ Spartak 3 1148 23.99% Zhetysu 1 1357 49.07% 26.94%
16 2014-07-13 26.40 Kaisar 3 1400 26.17% @ Atyrau 1 1365 46.64% 27.19%
17 2014-04-05 26.27 @ Ordabasy 3 1412 49.39% Tobol 0 1425 23.71% 26.90%
18 2014-08-03 26.07 Kairat 3 1541 49.63% @ Atyrau 0 1328 23.50% 26.87%
19 2014-03-15 24.17 Aktobe 2 1520 37.91% @ Taraz 0 1396 34.47% 27.62%
20 2014-05-06 24.10 Aktobe 2 1571 38.03% @ Tobol 0 1446 34.36% 27.62%
21 2014-05-06 22.88 @ Kairat 2 1419 40.43% Shakter Karagandy 0 1501 32.01% 27.56%
22 2014-09-14 22.26 @ Astana 5 1551 64.83% Ordabasy 0 1411 11.82% 23.35%
23 2014-09-14 22.16 Kairat 2 1588 41.81% @ Kaisar 0 1435 30.68% 27.51%
24 2014-07-27 22.09 @ Tobol 2 1404 41.94% Shakter Karagandy 0 1475 30.56% 27.50%
25 2014-11-01 21.71 @ Spartak 3 1200 36.13% Atyrau 1 1312 36.24% 27.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-11-09 71.9 Astana 3 1632 26.70% @ Kairat 2 1592 46.06% 27.24%
2 2014-06-22 69.2 @ Kaisar 2 1422 27.68% Aktobe 2 1598 45.00% 27.32%
3 2014-06-27 67.7 @ Aktobe 1 1597 59.77% Astana 1 1514 15.29% 24.94%
4 2014-06-01 67.6 @ Astana 2 1508 56.61% Kairat 2 1457 17.69% 25.71%
5 2014-10-18 66.2 @ Kairat 1 1629 71.68% Kaisar 1 1401 7.90% 20.42%
6 2014-10-26 66.0 @ Kaisar 2 1406 34.57% Aktobe 2 1529 37.81% 27.62%
7 2014-06-14 65.6 @ Aktobe 1 1603 67.87% Ordabasy 1 1426 9.97% 22.16%
8 2014-04-27 64.6 Aktobe 2 1550 23.55% @ Astana 1 1539 49.57% 26.88%
9 2014-04-19 64.5 Astana 4 1526 32.17% @ Irtysh 3 1443 40.26% 27.56%
10 2014-04-19 63.9 @ Taraz 3 1319 41.54% Atyrau 3 1393 30.94% 27.52%
11 2014-08-03 63.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1453 62.26% Irtysh 2 1343 13.52% 24.21%
12 2014-09-28 63.0 @ Kaisar 1 1418 29.11% Astana 1 1582 43.46% 27.42%
13 2014-04-19 62.3 @ Tobol 2 1391 48.19% Kairat 2 1414 24.77% 27.04%
14 2014-09-14 62.1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1427 34.39% Aktobe 1 1552 38.00% 27.62%
15 2014-03-22 62.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1430 35.91% Aktobe 1 1544 36.46% 27.63%
16 2014-05-18 61.2 @ Astana 1 1514 61.59% Ordabasy 1 1412 13.99% 24.42%
17 2014-09-28 61.0 Ordabasy 3 1380 18.79% @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1418 55.22% 25.99%
18 2014-06-14 60.6 @ Tobol 1 1429 41.27% Astana 1 1505 31.21% 27.53%
19 2014-05-28 60.5 @ Aktobe 0 1628 73.36% Atyrau 0 1374 7.07% 19.57%
20 2014-10-04 59.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 0 1401 21.73% Kairat 0 1632 51.67% 26.60%
21 2014-05-01 59.2 @ Shakter Karagandy 0 1503 48.68% Astana 0 1523 24.34% 26.98%
22 2014-07-26 59.2 @ Irtysh 1 1341 24.24% Aktobe 1 1548 48.79% 26.97%
23 2014-09-20 58.0 @ Aktobe 0 1552 64.76% Kaisar 0 1413 11.86% 23.37%
24 2014-05-06 57.6 @ Ordabasy 1 1427 54.57% Zhetysu 1 1395 19.31% 26.11%
25 2014-06-14 57.3 @ Irtysh 1 1402 48.82% Kaisar 1 1420 24.21% 26.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-03-29 23.5 @ Aktobe 3 1544 84.27% Spartak 0 1094 2.84% 12.89%
2 2014-05-06 23.6 @ Astana 5 1525 83.82% Spartak 0 1084 2.98% 13.20%
3 2014-05-18 25.0 @ Irtysh 5 1375 76.71% Spartak 0 1069 5.57% 17.72%
4 2014-04-09 28.0 @ Taraz 2 1324 72.28% Spartak 0 1087 7.60% 20.12%
5 2014-05-28 28.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1479 82.93% Spartak 0 1058 3.26% 13.81%
6 2014-07-27 28.7 @ Kairat 4 1539 82.94% Spartak 1 1117 3.26% 13.80%
7 2014-06-22 30.5 @ Zhetysu 1 1354 75.47% Spartak 0 1068 6.10% 18.43%
8 2014-05-24 31.0 Aktobe 1 1626 78.79% @ Spartak 0 1060 4.73% 16.48%
9 2014-06-22 31.2 @ Atyrau 3 1372 59.46% Taraz 0 1292 15.52% 25.02%
10 2014-11-01 32.2 @ Tobol 2 1395 62.93% Zhetysu 0 1278 13.07% 24.00%
11 2014-07-27 32.4 @ Astana 3 1542 69.92% Atyrau 0 1338 8.82% 21.26%
12 2014-10-04 32.6 @ Tobol 1 1389 70.25% Spartak 0 1180 8.65% 21.11%
13 2014-09-14 32.7 @ Tobol 3 1370 55.80% Taraz 0 1327 18.33% 25.88%
14 2014-08-02 33.0 @ Aktobe 2 1546 72.01% Taraz 0 1312 7.73% 20.26%
15 2014-04-05 33.7 Shakter Karagandy 1 1476 66.52% @ Spartak 0 1091 10.77% 22.71%
16 2014-06-14 33.8 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1469 61.22% Zhetysu 0 1370 14.25% 24.53%
17 2014-05-06 34.5 @ Irtysh 2 1371 56.13% Taraz 0 1324 18.06% 25.81%
18 2014-10-04 34.5 @ Irtysh 2 1339 54.38% Atyrau 0 1309 19.47% 26.15%
19 2014-04-19 34.6 @ Aktobe 3 1538 66.36% Kaisar 0 1380 10.87% 22.77%
20 2014-03-15 35.0 @ Tobol 2 1460 80.33% Spartak 1 1091 4.16% 15.52%
21 2014-04-27 35.3 @ Ordabasy 2 1424 78.78% Spartak 1 1083 4.74% 16.48%
22 2014-05-10 35.5 Kairat 5 1442 64.69% @ Spartak 2 1080 11.91% 23.40%
23 2014-11-09 35.5 @ Taraz 1 1304 59.74% Spartak 0 1221 15.31% 24.95%
24 2014-05-10 35.7 @ Aktobe 3 1596 70.36% Irtysh 0 1385 8.59% 21.05%
25 2014-04-13 35.8 @ Atyrau 2 1391 76.96% Spartak 1 1081 5.46% 17.57%