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2015 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Astana

46 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Okzhetpes

9.00 points above expected

29 points · 20.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kaisar

11.63 points below expected

16 points · 27.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kairat 22 13 5 4 44 43 14 +29
2 Aktobe 22 12 8 2 44 27 12 +15
3 Astana 22 12 7 3 43 40 19 +21
4 Atyrau 22 9 10 3 37 25 19 +6
5 Ordabasy 22 9 8 5 35 21 18 +3
6 Irtysh 22 7 9 6 30 26 23 +3
7 Okzhetpes 22 8 2 12 26 24 33 -9
8 Tobol 22 7 4 11 25 22 32 -10
9 Taraz 22 7 3 12 24 17 25 -8
10 Shakter Karagandy 22 5 3 14 18 16 38 -22
11 Kaisar 22 3 8 11 17 12 25 -13
12 Zhetysu 22 4 5 13 17 17 32 -15
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Astana 32 20 7 5 46 55 26 +29 — —
2 Kairat 32 20 7 5 45 60 19 +41 — —
3 Aktobe 32 15 9 8 32 35 25 +10 — —
4 Ordabasy 32 12 10 10 29 32 31 +1 — —
5 Atyrau 32 11 12 9 27 31 33 -2 — —
6 Irtysh 32 10 10 12 25 37 39 -2 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tobol 32 12 6 14 30 32 42 -10 — —
2 Okzhetpes 32 12 6 14 29 36 41 -5 — —
3 Taraz 32 10 8 14 26 25 33 -8 — —
4 Shakter Karagandy 32 9 5 18 23 27 47 -20 — —
5 Zhetysu 32 8 6 18 22 28 46 -18 — —
6 Kaisar 32 4 12 16 16 20 36 -16 — —

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Okzhetpes 29 20.00 +9.00
2 Kairat 45 42.78 +2.22
3 Tobol 30 27.84 +2.16
4 Astana 46 43.88 +2.12
5 Shakter Karagandy 23 22.43 +0.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kaisar 16 27.63 -11.63
2 Aktobe 32 42.88 -10.88
3 Ordabasy 29 31.48 -2.48
4 Irtysh 25 27.34 -2.34
5 Taraz 26 27.19 -1.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atyrau 6 Apr 15 – May 16 1 in 2,298
2 Aktobe 8 Apr 15 – May 29 1 in 125
3 Okzhetpes 3 Mar 11 – Mar 21 1 in 105
4 Taraz 3 Apr 11 – Apr 19 1 in 52
5 Astana 6 Oct 4 – Nov 8 1 in 44

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aktobe 2 Jul 12 – Jul 19 1 in 98
2 Atyrau 6 Jul 26 – Oct 4 1 in 70
3 Irtysh 5 Oct 3 – Nov 8 1 in 54
4 Taraz 5 May 16 – Jun 20 1 in 39
5 Kairat 2 May 7 – May 16 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atyrau 15 Apr 15 – Jul 19 1 in 1,875
2 Ordabasy 13 Mar 7 – May 24 1 in 236
3 Aktobe 19 Mar 7 – Jul 5 1 in 73
4 Irtysh 9 Jun 6 – Aug 15 1 in 73
5 Kairat 17 May 24 – Oct 17 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atyrau 13 Jun 28 – Oct 28 1 in 83
2 Astana 4 Mar 21 – Apr 15 1 in 37
3 Kaisar 12 Jun 6 – Sep 19 1 in 35
4 Taraz 7 Jul 11 – Sep 19 1 in 20
5 Zhetysu 8 Mar 7 – Apr 19 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Astana 1707 67 +42 15 9.7 +5.3
Kairat 1755 67 +30 10 10.1 -0.1
Aktobe 1563 54 -51 4 7.4 -3.4
Ordabasy 1466 46 +1 6 5.0 +1.0
Atyrau 1432 45 +35 8 3.8 +4.2
Okzhetpes 1391 42 +11 8 7.5 +0.5
Tobol 1400 42 -25 7 8.1 -1.1
Irtysh 1467 40 -57 0 5.3 -5.3
Taraz 1364 38 -15 8 7.6 +0.4
Shakter Karagandy 1377 32 +43 9 6.2 +2.8
Zhetysu 1328 30 +21 7 5.8 +1.2
Kaisar 1300 24 -35 2 5.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AST ATY IRT KAI KAI OKZ ORD SK TAR TOB ZHE
Aktobe —
0-2-2
4.83
2-2-0
7.96
2-0-2
7.78
1-1-2
4.75
0-2-0
4.15
2-0-0
4.58
2-1-1
7.51
1-0-1
4.55
2-0-0
4.05
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
4.65
Astana
2-2-0
6.13
—
2-2-0
8.73
2-1-1
8.13
2-0-2
5.38
1-0-1
4.21
2-0-0
4.69
3-1-0
7.87
2-0-0
4.40
1-0-1
4.31
1-1-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.51
Atyrau
0-2-2
3.06
0-2-2
2.36
—
2-1-1
5.16
1-2-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-2
4.61
1-1-0
3.61
2-0-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.26
Irtysh
2-0-2
3.22
1-1-2
2.91
1-1-2
5.78
—
0-1-3
2.88
1-1-0
2.62
2-0-0
3.15
1-2-1
5.79
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.76
1-1-0
3.35
Kairat
2-1-1
6.19
2-0-2
5.55
1-2-1
8.58
3-1-0
8.15
—
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.28
2-2-0
7.94
2-0-0
4.51
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.31
Kaisar
0-2-0
1.36
1-0-1
1.33
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.85
0-1-1
1.36
—
0-0-4
6.47
0-2-0
2.00
2-1-1
5.57
0-2-2
5.17
0-1-3
4.84
1-1-2
5.82
Okzhetpes
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
0.91
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
1.26
4-0-0
4.49
—
0-0-2
1.67
2-1-1
5.38
1-3-0
4.63
2-0-2
4.55
3-1-0
5.77
Ordabasy
1-1-2
3.47
0-1-3
3.14
2-1-1
6.34
1-2-1
5.14
0-2-2
3.09
0-2-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.82
—
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.20
0-1-1
4.08
Shakter Karagandy
1-0-1
1.03
0-0-2
1.15
0-1-1
1.86
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.05
1-1-2
5.37
1-1-2
5.55
0-0-2
2.25
—
2-1-1
5.10
1-0-3
4.42
3-0-1
5.57
Taraz
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
1.22
0-0-2
2.98
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
1.42
2-2-0
5.77
0-3-1
6.32
0-0-2
2.17
1-1-2
5.83
—
2-1-1
5.35
2-0-2
6.58
Tobol
0-0-2
1.57
0-1-1
1.30
1-1-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
1.55
3-1-0
6.10
2-0-2
6.42
0-0-2
2.27
3-0-1
6.51
1-1-2
5.58
—
1-1-2
6.78
Zhetysu
0-1-1
0.93
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
2.23
0-1-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.22
2-1-1
5.12
0-1-3
5.18
1-1-0
1.43
1-0-3
5.36
2-0-2
4.38
2-1-1
4.16
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +7.1
Allowed 0.52 -7.2
Differential 0.86 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.02%12.50%6.51%2.86%1.30%0.26%36.46%
112.50%8.85%7.81%3.39%0.78%—33.33%
26.51%7.81%3.12%0.78%0.52%0.26%19.01%
32.86%3.39%0.78%0.52%0.26%—7.81%
41.30%0.78%0.52%0.26%——2.86%
5+0.26%—0.26%———0.52%
Total36.46%33.33%19.01%7.81%2.86%0.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.09 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.10 1.59
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%15.62%—3.12%——37.50%
115.62%9.38%6.25%———31.25%
29.38%9.38%————18.75%
3—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total43.75%37.50%15.62%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 0.78 +0.31
SD 1.12 0.83 1.18
CV 1.02 1.07 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
115.62%9.38%6.25%———31.25%
29.38%12.50%3.12%———25.00%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
46.25%6.25%—3.12%——15.62%
5+———————
Total43.75%34.38%18.75%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.81 +0.91
SD 1.33 0.86 1.51
CV 0.77 1.06 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%6.25%9.38%———31.25%
115.62%15.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%—43.75%
2—15.62%6.25%———21.88%
33.12%—————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.38%37.50%21.88%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.03 -0.06
SD 0.82 1.00 1.24
CV 0.85 0.97 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%15.62%3.12%3.12%——31.25%
112.50%12.50%9.38%———34.38%
26.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%37.50%25.00%6.25%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.22 -0.06
SD 1.05 1.13 1.34
CV 0.91 0.93 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%————25.00%
19.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
215.62%9.38%3.12%———28.12%
36.25%6.25%——3.12%—15.62%
49.38%—————9.38%
5+3.12%—3.12%———6.25%
Total59.38%28.12%9.38%—3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.59 +1.28
SD 1.52 0.91 1.67
CV 0.81 1.53 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
028.12%18.75%6.25%3.12%——56.25%
1—9.38%15.62%3.12%——28.12%
23.12%6.25%——3.12%—12.50%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%37.50%21.88%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 1.12 -0.50
SD 0.83 1.04 1.11
CV 1.33 0.92 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
118.75%6.25%12.50%6.25%——43.75%
212.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
33.12%——3.12%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.62%18.75%18.75%15.62%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.28 -0.16
SD 0.87 1.33 1.61
CV 0.77 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%9.38%3.12%——34.38%
115.62%15.62%6.25%———37.50%
26.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.38%40.62%18.75%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.97 +0.03
SD 0.92 0.90 1.28
CV 0.92 0.93 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%6.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%43.75%
112.50%6.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%—37.50%
23.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%31.25%21.88%6.25%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 1.47 -0.62
SD 0.95 1.39 1.93
CV 1.13 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%18.75%9.38%6.25%——50.00%
115.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%—31.25%
29.38%—————9.38%
33.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total43.75%28.12%12.50%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.03 -0.25
SD 0.97 1.18 1.59
CV 1.25 1.14 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%12.50%—6.25%—40.62%
112.50%6.25%3.12%9.38%——31.25%
2—15.62%3.12%———18.75%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total25.00%40.62%18.75%9.38%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.31 -0.31
SD 1.08 1.15 1.73
CV 1.08 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%12.50%9.38%——43.75%
16.25%6.25%9.38%12.50%——34.38%
23.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%28.12%25.00%21.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.44 -0.56
SD 0.98 1.11 1.66
CV 1.11 0.77 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kairat 1755 45 42.78 +2.22 58.0% 26 31 38 42 48 53 57
Astana 1707 46 43.88 +2.12 46.0% 28 34 40 44 48 53 57
Aktobe 1563 32 42.88 -10.88 57.0% 28 30 39 43 47 52 57
Irtysh 1467 25 27.34 -2.34 67.0% 15 17 23 28 31 36 41
Ordabasy 1466 29 31.48 -2.48 73.0% 19 22 27 32 36 41 42
Atyrau 1432 27 27.55 -0.55 92.0% 9 17 24 28 31 38 40
Tobol 1400 30 27.84 +2.16 36.0% 14 19 23 28 32 38 44
Okzhetpes 1391 29 20.00 +9.00 89.0% 8 11 16 20 24 28 34
Shakter Karagandy 1377 23 22.43 +0.57 25.0% 12 14 18 22 26 33 36
Taraz 1364 26 27.19 -1.19 34.0% 15 18 23 27 31 36 40
Zhetysu 1328 22 21.72 +0.28 20.0% 6 12 18 22 26 30 36
Kaisar 1300 16 27.63 -11.63 3.0% 14 19 23 28 32 36 40

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+19.27%
Slight Edge
46.88%25.52%27.60%
Elo Value
Home Edge
237 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
067.80600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Astana, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.41 * Wild Swing: 9.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.46 * Close: 1.46 to 2.2 * Off: 2.2 to 2.93 * Way Off: 2.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.17 points
Some Luck
05.8815
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Close
01.834
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
92.00%
Atyrau
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
Kaisar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 133.16
1.18
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
73%
Slight Edge
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
89%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%65%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Very Even
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.83
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.93
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.053
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Astana38.00%26.00%24.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Kairat32.00%29.00%20.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%—1.00%————
Aktobe29.00%34.00%23.00%9.00%1.00%—1.00%2.00%1.00%———
Tobol—3.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%
Ordabasy—4.00%12.00%23.00%19.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%4.00%7.00%3.00%—
Okzhetpes———1.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%10.00%10.00%18.00%20.00%33.00%
Atyrau1.00%2.00%5.00%9.00%10.00%16.00%16.00%14.00%9.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%
Taraz——5.00%3.00%16.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%15.00%7.00%12.00%5.00%
Irtysh—1.00%1.00%11.00%12.00%17.00%18.00%10.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%
Shakter Karagandy———4.00%3.00%7.00%9.00%7.00%14.00%11.00%18.00%27.00%
Zhetysu——1.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%23.00%15.00%21.00%
Kaisar—1.00%3.00%12.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%8.00%11.00%2.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Aktobe 100% — —
Astana 100% — —
Kairat 100% — —
Ordabasy 98.00% 2.00% —
Irtysh 96.00% 3.00% 1.00%
Atyrau 89.00% 8.00% 3.00%
Tobol 90.00% 7.00% 3.00%
Kaisar 82.00% 8.00% 10.00%
Taraz 77.00% 10.00% 13.00%
Zhetysu 60.00% 20.00% 20.00%
Shakter Karagandy 57.00% 19.00% 24.00%
Okzhetpes 51.00% 23.00% 26.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-03-07 Atyrau D 1-164.3 1596 1370 68.51% 21.80% 9.69%+1.24 -4.9 1
2015-03-07 @ Aktobe D 1-164.3 1370 1596 9.69% 21.80% 68.51%-1.24 +4.9 1
2015-03-07 Irtysh D 1-160.2 1448 1443 46.61% 26.69% 26.70%+0.30 -1.5 1
2015-03-07 @ Ordabasy D 1-160.2 1443 1448 26.70% 26.69% 46.61%-0.30 +1.5 1
2015-03-07 Okzhetpes W 2-032.7 1635 1269 77.60% 17.27% 5.13%+1.83 +3.9 3
2015-03-07 @ Astana L 0-232.7 1269 1635 5.13% 17.27% 77.60%-1.83 -3.9 0
2015-03-07 Shakter Karagandy D 0-053.4 1410 1443 41.67% 26.97% 31.36%+0.15 -0.8 1
2015-03-07 @ Taraz D 0-053.4 1443 1410 31.36% 26.97% 41.67%-0.15 +0.8 1
2015-03-07 Tobol W 4-043.6 1586 1494 56.78% 25.31% 17.91%+0.68 +27.5 3
2015-03-07 @ Kairat L 0-443.6 1494 1586 17.91% 25.31% 56.78%-0.68 -27.5 0
2015-03-07 Zhetysu D 0-053.9 1470 1385 55.91% 25.48% 18.61%+0.64 -3.3 1
2015-03-07 @ Kaisar D 0-053.9 1385 1470 18.61% 25.48% 55.91%-0.64 +3.3 1
2015-03-11 Astana L 0-345.0 1445 1639 21.43% 26.04% 52.53%-0.53 -24.6 1
2015-03-11 @ Irtysh W 3-045.0 1639 1445 52.53% 26.04% 21.43%+0.53 +24.6 6
2015-03-11 Kairat D 0-064.9 1592 1614 43.12% 26.91% 29.97%+0.19 -1.1 2
2015-03-11 @ Aktobe D 0-064.9 1614 1592 29.97% 26.91% 43.12%-0.19 +1.1 4
2015-03-11 Kaisar W 1-049.1 1265 1466 20.73% 25.91% 53.36%-0.56 +18.5 3
2015-03-11 @ Okzhetpes L 0-149.1 1466 1265 53.36% 25.91% 20.73%+0.56 -18.5 1
2015-03-11 Ordabasy L 0-150.8 1443 1446 45.68% 26.76% 27.56%+0.27 -16.2 1
2015-03-11 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-050.8 1446 1443 27.56% 26.76% 45.68%-0.27 +16.2 4
2015-03-11 Taraz W 2-150.2 1375 1409 41.55% 26.98% 31.47%+0.14 +11.5 4
2015-03-11 @ Atyrau L 1-250.2 1409 1375 31.47% 26.98% 41.55%-0.14 -11.5 1
2015-03-11 Tobol D 0-053.4 1388 1466 35.37% 27.06% 37.57%-0.04 +0.2 2
2015-03-11 @ Zhetysu D 0-053.4 1466 1388 37.57% 27.06% 35.37%+0.04 -0.2 1
2015-03-15 Aktobe L 0-146.7 1397 1590 21.47% 26.04% 52.49%-0.53 -9.0 1
2015-03-15 @ Taraz W 1-046.7 1590 1397 52.49% 26.04% 21.47%+0.53 +9.0 5
2015-03-15 Atyrau W 2-037.8 1463 1386 55.04% 25.64% 19.32%+0.61 +15.5 7
2015-03-15 @ Ordabasy L 0-237.8 1386 1463 19.32% 25.64% 55.04%-0.61 -15.5 4
2015-03-15 Irtysh D 0-054.0 1448 1420 49.48% 26.42% 24.11%+0.40 -2.1 2
2015-03-15 @ Kaisar D 0-054.0 1420 1448 24.11% 26.42% 49.48%-0.40 +2.2 2
2015-03-15 Okzhetpes L 0-248.6 1466 1284 65.03% 23.11% 11.87%+1.05 -41.6 1
2015-03-15 @ Tobol W 2-048.6 1284 1466 11.87% 23.11% 65.03%-1.05 +41.7 6
2015-03-15 Shakter Karagandy W 2-151.9 1663 1427 69.22% 21.50% 9.28%+1.28 +3.8 9
2015-03-15 @ Astana L 1-251.9 1427 1663 9.28% 21.50% 69.22%-1.28 -3.8 1
2015-03-15 Zhetysu W 2-039.0 1615 1389 68.50% 21.80% 9.70%+1.24 +7.9 7
2015-03-15 @ Kairat L 0-239.0 1389 1615 9.70% 21.80% 68.50%-1.24 -7.9 2
2015-03-21 Astana D 1-166.4 1371 1667 13.39% 23.82% 62.79%-0.96 +4.0 5
2015-03-21 @ Atyrau D 1-166.4 1667 1371 62.79% 23.82% 13.39%+0.96 -4.0 10
2015-03-21 Kairat W 1-058.0 1388 1623 17.76% 25.28% 56.96%-0.70 +19.6 4
2015-03-21 @ Taraz L 0-158.0 1623 1388 56.96% 25.28% 17.76%+0.70 -19.6 7
2015-03-21 Kaisar L 1-255.8 1423 1446 43.14% 26.91% 29.95%+0.19 -14.6 1
2015-03-21 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-155.8 1446 1423 29.95% 26.91% 43.14%-0.19 +14.6 5
2015-03-21 Ordabasy D 0-061.9 1599 1478 59.62% 24.68% 15.69%+0.80 -3.9 6
2015-03-21 @ Aktobe D 0-061.9 1478 1599 15.69% 24.68% 59.62%-0.80 +4.0 8
2015-03-21 Tobol D 1-158.9 1423 1424 45.81% 26.75% 27.44%+0.28 -1.4 3
2015-03-21 @ Irtysh D 1-158.9 1424 1423 27.44% 26.75% 45.81%-0.28 +1.4 2
2015-03-21 Zhetysu W 2-039.9 1326 1381 38.59% 27.05% 34.36%+0.05 +24.6 9
2015-03-21 @ Okzhetpes L 0-239.9 1381 1326 34.36% 27.05% 38.59%-0.05 -24.6 2
2015-04-05 Aktobe D 0-066.2 1663 1596 54.08% 25.80% 20.11%+0.57 -3.0 11
2015-04-05 @ Astana D 0-066.2 1596 1663 20.11% 25.80% 54.08%-0.57 +3.0 7
2015-04-05 Atyrau D 0-053.4 1460 1375 56.01% 25.46% 18.53%+0.65 -3.3 6
2015-04-05 @ Kaisar D 0-053.4 1375 1460 18.53% 25.46% 56.01%-0.65 +3.3 6
2015-04-05 Irtysh D 2-263.2 1356 1421 37.19% 27.06% 35.74%+0.01 -0.1 3
2015-04-05 @ Zhetysu D 2-263.2 1421 1356 35.74% 27.06% 37.19%-0.01 +0.1 4
2015-04-05 Okzhetpes W 4-034.8 1603 1350 70.45% 20.96% 8.58%+1.35 +13.1 10
2015-04-05 @ Kairat L 0-434.8 1350 1603 8.58% 20.96% 70.45%-1.35 -13.1 9
2015-04-05 Shakter Karagandy W 4-142.5 1426 1409 48.19% 26.55% 25.26%+0.36 +23.8 5
2015-04-05 @ Tobol L 1-442.5 1409 1426 25.26% 26.55% 48.19%-0.36 -23.8 1
2015-04-05 Taraz W 1-042.6 1482 1408 54.82% 25.68% 19.50%+0.60 +8.3 11
2015-04-05 @ Ordabasy L 0-142.6 1408 1482 19.50% 25.68% 54.82%-0.60 -8.3 4
2015-04-08 Irtysh W 1-044.5 1616 1421 66.08% 22.73% 11.18%+1.11 +4.9 13
2015-04-08 @ Kairat L 0-144.5 1421 1616 11.18% 22.73% 66.08%-1.11 -4.9 4
2015-04-11 Astana W 2-056.9 1400 1660 15.78% 24.71% 59.51%-0.81 +38.5 7
2015-04-11 @ Taraz L 0-256.9 1660 1400 59.51% 24.71% 15.78%+0.81 -38.5 11
2015-04-11 Kairat D 2-274.1 1490 1621 28.32% 26.81% 44.86%-0.27 +0.9 12
2015-04-11 @ Ordabasy D 2-274.1 1621 1490 44.86% 26.81% 28.32%+0.27 -0.9 14
2015-04-11 Kaisar D 0-061.3 1598 1457 61.50% 24.19% 14.30%+0.88 -4.3 8
2015-04-11 @ Aktobe D 0-061.3 1457 1598 14.30% 24.19% 61.50%-0.88 +4.3 7
2015-04-11 Okzhetpes W 3-141.6 1416 1337 55.38% 25.58% 19.04%+0.62 +13.2 7
2015-04-11 @ Irtysh L 1-341.6 1337 1416 19.04% 25.58% 55.38%-0.62 -13.2 9
2015-04-11 Tobol L 1-252.7 1378 1450 36.28% 27.07% 36.65%-0.01 -12.8 6
2015-04-11 @ Atyrau W 2-152.7 1450 1378 36.65% 27.07% 36.28%+0.01 +12.8 8
2015-04-11 Zhetysu W 2-147.0 1385 1356 49.67% 26.40% 23.94%+0.41 +9.3 4
2015-04-11 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-247.0 1356 1385 23.94% 26.40% 49.67%-0.41 -9.3 3
2015-04-15 Aktobe L 0-248.1 1462 1594 28.21% 26.80% 44.98%-0.27 -21.2 8
2015-04-15 @ Tobol W 2-048.1 1594 1462 44.98% 26.80% 28.21%+0.27 +21.2 11
2015-04-15 Atyrau L 1-252.6 1347 1365 43.62% 26.88% 29.50%+0.21 -14.7 3
2015-04-15 @ Zhetysu W 2-152.6 1365 1347 29.50% 26.88% 43.62%-0.21 +14.7 9
2015-04-15 Ordabasy D 1-168.7 1621 1491 60.46% 24.47% 15.07%+0.83 -3.7 12
2015-04-15 @ Astana D 1-168.7 1491 1621 15.07% 24.47% 60.46%-0.83 +3.7 13
2015-04-15 Shakter Karagandy W 1-044.2 1324 1394 36.39% 27.07% 36.54%-0.01 +13.7 12
2015-04-15 @ Okzhetpes L 0-144.2 1394 1324 36.54% 27.07% 36.39%+0.01 -13.7 4
2015-04-15 Taraz L 1-354.5 1461 1438 48.95% 26.47% 24.57%+0.38 -28.1 7
2015-04-15 @ Kaisar W 3-154.5 1438 1461 24.57% 26.47% 48.95%-0.38 +28.1 10
2015-04-19 Kairat W 4-369.4 1618 1620 45.73% 26.75% 27.52%+0.27 +9.6 15
2015-04-19 @ Astana L 3-469.4 1620 1618 27.52% 26.75% 45.73%-0.27 -9.6 14
2015-04-19 Kaisar D 0-056.1 1495 1433 53.46% 25.90% 20.64%+0.55 -2.8 14
2015-04-19 @ Ordabasy D 0-056.1 1433 1495 20.64% 25.90% 53.46%-0.55 +2.8 8
2015-04-19 Okzhetpes W 2-146.1 1380 1337 51.29% 26.21% 22.51%+0.47 +8.8 12
2015-04-19 @ Atyrau L 1-246.1 1337 1380 22.51% 26.21% 51.29%-0.47 -8.8 12
2015-04-19 Tobol W 1-044.9 1466 1441 49.19% 26.45% 24.36%+0.39 +10.0 13
2015-04-19 @ Taraz L 0-144.9 1441 1466 24.36% 26.45% 49.19%-0.39 -10.0 8
2015-04-19 Zhetysu W 2-035.7 1615 1332 72.54% 19.99% 7.48%+1.48 +6.0 14
2015-04-19 @ Aktobe L 0-235.7 1332 1615 7.48% 19.99% 72.54%-1.48 -6.0 3
2015-04-20 Irtysh D 2-263.9 1381 1430 39.48% 27.03% 33.49%+0.08 -0.3 5
2015-04-20 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-263.9 1430 1381 33.49% 27.03% 39.48%-0.08 +0.3 8
2015-04-25 Aktobe L 2-353.5 1329 1621 13.59% 23.91% 62.50%-0.95 -5.3 12
2015-04-25 @ Okzhetpes W 3-253.5 1621 1329 62.50% 23.91% 13.59%+0.95 +5.3 17
2015-04-25 Astana W 2-165.2 1436 1627 21.65% 26.07% 52.28%-0.52 +17.2 11
2015-04-25 @ Kaisar L 1-265.2 1627 1436 52.28% 26.07% 21.65%+0.52 -17.2 15
2015-04-25 Atyrau L 1-256.7 1430 1389 51.09% 26.23% 22.68%+0.46 -16.8 8
2015-04-25 @ Irtysh W 2-156.7 1389 1430 22.68% 26.23% 51.09%-0.46 +16.8 15
2015-04-25 Ordabasy L 1-352.2 1431 1492 37.79% 27.06% 35.15%+0.03 -22.9 8
2015-04-25 @ Tobol W 3-152.2 1492 1431 35.15% 27.06% 37.79%-0.03 +22.8 17
2015-04-25 Shakter Karagandy W 4-036.7 1611 1380 68.80% 21.68% 9.52%+1.26 +14.7 17
2015-04-25 @ Kairat L 0-436.7 1380 1611 9.52% 21.68% 68.80%-1.26 -14.7 5
2015-04-25 Taraz W 1-048.8 1326 1476 26.05% 26.63% 47.32%-0.35 +16.7 6
2015-04-25 @ Zhetysu L 0-148.8 1476 1326 47.32% 26.63% 26.05%+0.35 -16.7 13
2015-05-03 Irtysh W 2-150.6 1627 1413 67.53% 22.19% 10.28%+1.19 +4.2 20
2015-05-03 @ Aktobe L 1-250.6 1413 1627 10.28% 22.19% 67.53%-1.19 -4.2 8
2015-05-03 Kairat D 0-061.5 1453 1625 23.60% 26.36% 50.04%-0.44 +2.2 12
2015-05-03 @ Kaisar D 0-061.5 1625 1453 50.04% 26.36% 23.60%+0.44 -2.2 18
2015-05-03 Okzhetpes D 1-158.1 1459 1323 61.01% 24.33% 14.66%+0.86 -3.8 14
2015-05-03 @ Taraz D 1-158.1 1323 1459 14.66% 24.33% 61.01%-0.86 +3.8 13
2015-05-03 Shakter Karagandy W 1-040.7 1406 1366 50.98% 26.24% 22.77%+0.45 +9.4 18
2015-05-03 @ Atyrau L 0-140.7 1366 1406 22.77% 26.24% 50.98%-0.45 -9.5 5
2015-05-03 Tobol W 4-038.4 1610 1408 66.62% 22.54% 10.84%+1.14 +16.9 18
2015-05-03 @ Astana L 0-438.4 1408 1610 10.84% 22.54% 66.62%-1.14 -16.9 8
2015-05-03 Zhetysu D 0-054.6 1515 1343 64.18% 23.39% 12.43%+1.01 -4.7 18
2015-05-03 @ Ordabasy D 0-054.6 1343 1515 12.43% 23.39% 64.18%-1.01 +4.7 7
2015-05-07 Aktobe L 0-144.2 1356 1631 14.78% 24.37% 60.85%-0.87 -6.4 5
2015-05-07 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-044.2 1631 1356 60.85% 24.37% 14.78%+0.87 +6.4 23
2015-05-07 Astana L 1-346.2 1348 1627 14.45% 24.25% 61.31%-0.89 -10.3 7
2015-05-07 @ Zhetysu W 3-146.2 1627 1348 61.31% 24.25% 14.45%+0.89 +10.3 21
2015-05-07 Atyrau L 0-161.2 1623 1415 67.10% 22.36% 10.55%+1.16 -22.7 18
2015-05-07 @ Kairat W 1-061.2 1415 1623 10.55% 22.36% 67.10%-1.16 +22.7 21
2015-05-07 Kaisar W 1-046.6 1391 1455 37.35% 27.06% 35.59%+0.02 +13.4 11
2015-05-07 @ Tobol L 0-146.6 1455 1391 35.59% 27.06% 37.35%-0.02 -13.4 12
2015-05-07 Ordabasy L 0-142.1 1327 1510 22.48% 26.20% 51.32%-0.49 -9.3 13
2015-05-07 @ Okzhetpes W 1-042.1 1510 1327 51.32% 26.20% 22.48%+0.49 +9.4 21
2015-05-07 Taraz L 0-148.3 1409 1456 39.76% 27.03% 33.21%+0.09 -14.5 8
2015-05-07 @ Irtysh W 1-048.3 1456 1409 33.21% 27.03% 39.76%-0.09 +14.5 17
2015-05-16 Aktobe L 1-266.9 1600 1637 41.16% 26.99% 31.85%+0.13 -14.1 18
2015-05-16 @ Kairat W 2-166.9 1637 1600 31.85% 26.99% 41.16%-0.13 +14.1 26
2015-05-16 Atyrau L 0-152.6 1470 1438 50.07% 26.35% 23.58%+0.42 -17.5 17
2015-05-16 @ Taraz W 1-052.6 1438 1470 23.58% 26.35% 50.07%-0.42 +17.5 24
2015-05-16 Irtysh D 2-272.9 1637 1394 69.73% 21.28% 8.99%+1.31 -3.8 22
2015-05-16 @ Astana D 2-272.9 1394 1637 8.99% 21.28% 69.73%-1.31 +3.8 9
2015-05-16 Okzhetpes L 0-247.6 1442 1318 59.90% 24.61% 15.49%+0.81 -38.8 12
2015-05-16 @ Kaisar W 2-047.6 1318 1442 15.49% 24.61% 59.90%-0.81 +38.8 16
2015-05-16 Shakter Karagandy W 1-039.2 1519 1350 63.98% 23.45% 12.57%+1.00 +5.5 24
2015-05-16 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.2 1350 1519 12.57% 23.45% 63.98%-1.00 -5.5 5
2015-05-16 Zhetysu W 3-141.8 1405 1337 54.10% 25.80% 20.10%+0.57 +13.9 14
2015-05-16 @ Tobol L 1-341.8 1337 1405 20.10% 25.80% 54.10%-0.57 -13.9 7
2015-05-24 Astana L 0-438.2 1344 1634 13.81% 24.00% 62.19%-0.93 -21.5 5
2015-05-24 @ Shakter Karagandy W 4-038.2 1634 1344 62.19% 24.00% 13.81%+0.93 +21.5 25
2015-05-24 Kairat L 0-336.5 1323 1586 15.59% 24.65% 59.76%-0.82 -18.5 7
2015-05-24 @ Zhetysu W 3-036.5 1586 1323 59.76% 24.65% 15.59%+0.82 +18.5 21
2015-05-24 Kaisar W 4-248.7 1398 1403 45.39% 26.78% 27.83%+0.26 +16.2 12
2015-05-24 @ Irtysh L 2-448.7 1403 1398 27.83% 26.78% 45.39%-0.26 -16.2 12
2015-05-24 Ordabasy D 1-163.2 1455 1525 36.55% 27.07% 36.39%-0.01 -0.0 25
2015-05-24 @ Atyrau D 1-163.2 1525 1455 36.39% 27.07% 36.55%+0.01 +0.0 25
2015-05-24 Taraz W 3-149.3 1651 1453 66.36% 22.63% 11.01%+1.12 +7.8 29
2015-05-24 @ Aktobe L 1-349.3 1453 1651 11.01% 22.63% 66.36%-1.12 -7.8 17
2015-05-24 Tobol W 1-044.8 1356 1419 37.58% 27.06% 35.35%+0.02 +13.3 19
2015-05-24 @ Okzhetpes L 0-144.8 1419 1356 35.35% 27.06% 37.58%-0.02 -13.3 14
2015-05-29 Aktobe L 0-155.3 1525 1659 27.93% 26.78% 45.29%-0.28 -11.1 25
2015-05-29 @ Ordabasy W 1-055.3 1659 1525 45.29% 26.78% 27.93%+0.28 +11.1 32
2015-05-29 Atyrau D 0-063.6 1655 1455 66.45% 22.60% 10.95%+1.13 -5.1 26
2015-05-29 @ Astana D 0-063.6 1455 1655 10.95% 22.60% 66.45%-1.13 +5.1 26
2015-05-29 Irtysh W 1-043.6 1405 1414 44.90% 26.81% 28.30%+0.25 +11.3 17
2015-05-29 @ Tobol L 0-143.6 1414 1405 28.30% 26.81% 44.90%-0.25 -11.3 12
2015-05-29 Okzhetpes L 0-143.8 1305 1370 37.21% 27.06% 35.72%+0.01 -13.8 7
2015-05-29 @ Zhetysu W 1-043.8 1370 1305 35.72% 27.06% 37.21%-0.01 +13.8 22
2015-05-29 Shakter Karagandy W 2-035.4 1387 1323 53.73% 25.86% 20.41%+0.56 +16.2 15
2015-05-29 @ Kaisar L 0-235.4 1323 1387 20.41% 25.86% 53.73%-0.56 -16.2 5
2015-05-29 Taraz W 2-042.4 1605 1445 63.14% 23.72% 13.14%+0.96 +10.8 24
2015-05-29 @ Kairat L 0-242.4 1445 1605 13.14% 23.72% 63.14%-0.96 -10.8 17
2015-06-06 Astana D 0-066.9 1670 1650 48.61% 26.51% 24.88%+0.37 -2.0 33
2015-06-06 @ Aktobe D 0-066.9 1650 1670 24.88% 26.51% 48.61%-0.37 +2.0 27
2015-06-06 Kairat L 1-348.5 1384 1616 17.97% 25.33% 56.70%-0.69 -12.6 22
2015-06-06 @ Okzhetpes W 3-148.5 1616 1384 56.70% 25.33% 17.97%+0.69 +12.6 27
2015-06-06 Kaisar W 2-148.8 1461 1403 52.96% 25.97% 21.06%+0.53 +8.4 29
2015-06-06 @ Atyrau L 1-248.8 1403 1461 21.06% 25.97% 52.96%-0.53 -8.3 15
2015-06-06 Ordabasy L 0-149.7 1434 1514 35.09% 27.06% 37.85%-0.05 -13.2 17
2015-06-06 @ Taraz W 1-049.7 1514 1434 37.85% 27.06% 35.09%+0.05 +13.2 28
2015-06-06 Tobol W 1-045.9 1307 1417 30.97% 26.95% 42.08%-0.18 +15.2 8
2015-06-06 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-145.9 1417 1307 42.08% 26.95% 30.97%+0.18 -15.2 17
2015-06-06 Zhetysu W 1-037.2 1403 1291 58.71% 24.90% 16.39%+0.76 +7.1 15
2015-06-06 @ Irtysh L 0-137.2 1291 1403 16.39% 24.90% 58.71%-0.76 -7.1 7
2015-06-20 Aktobe D 0-061.5 1395 1668 14.86% 24.40% 60.74%-0.87 +4.1 16
2015-06-20 @ Kaisar D 0-061.5 1668 1395 60.74% 24.40% 14.86%+0.87 -4.1 34
2015-06-20 Atyrau D 2-265.5 1401 1469 36.84% 27.06% 36.09%+0.00 -0.0 18
2015-06-20 @ Tobol D 2-265.5 1469 1401 36.09% 27.06% 36.84%+0.00 +0.0 30
2015-06-20 Irtysh L 0-146.5 1371 1410 40.84% 27.00% 32.16%+0.12 -14.8 22
2015-06-20 @ Okzhetpes W 1-046.5 1410 1371 32.16% 27.00% 40.84%-0.12 +14.8 18
2015-06-20 Ordabasy W 2-157.3 1628 1527 57.64% 25.14% 17.23%+0.71 +7.0 30
2015-06-20 @ Kairat L 1-257.3 1527 1628 17.23% 25.14% 57.64%-0.71 -7.0 28
2015-06-20 Shakter Karagandy W 3-036.4 1284 1322 41.02% 26.99% 31.99%+0.13 +33.9 10
2015-06-20 @ Zhetysu L 0-336.4 1322 1284 31.99% 26.99% 41.02%-0.13 -33.9 8
2015-06-20 Taraz W 4-144.4 1652 1421 68.86% 21.65% 9.49%+1.26 +9.5 30
2015-06-20 @ Astana L 1-444.4 1421 1652 9.49% 21.65% 68.86%-1.26 -9.5 17
2015-06-24 Astana L 0-251.5 1520 1661 27.07% 26.72% 46.21%-0.31 -20.5 28
2015-06-24 @ Ordabasy W 2-051.5 1661 1520 46.21% 26.72% 27.07%+0.31 +20.5 33
2015-06-24 Kairat D 1-166.6 1425 1635 19.87% 25.75% 54.38%-0.60 +2.7 19
2015-06-24 @ Irtysh D 1-166.6 1635 1425 54.38% 25.75% 19.87%+0.60 -2.7 31
2015-06-24 Kaisar W 3-037.3 1411 1399 47.62% 26.60% 25.78%+0.34 +28.6 20
2015-06-24 @ Taraz L 0-337.3 1399 1411 25.78% 26.60% 47.62%-0.34 -28.6 16
2015-06-24 Okzhetpes W 3-038.0 1288 1356 36.72% 27.07% 36.22%+0.00 +37.1 11
2015-06-24 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-338.0 1356 1288 36.22% 27.07% 36.72%+0.00 -37.2 22
2015-06-24 Tobol W 2-150.4 1664 1401 71.13% 20.66% 8.21%+1.39 +3.3 37
2015-06-24 @ Aktobe L 1-250.4 1401 1664 8.21% 20.66% 71.13%-1.39 -3.3 18
2015-06-24 Zhetysu W 3-032.4 1469 1318 62.36% 23.95% 13.69%+0.92 +16.3 33
2015-06-24 @ Atyrau L 0-332.4 1318 1469 13.69% 23.95% 62.36%-0.92 -16.3 10
2015-06-27 Aktobe D 1-164.4 1302 1667 9.72% 21.82% 68.46%-1.26 +4.9 11
2015-06-27 @ Zhetysu D 1-164.4 1667 1302 68.46% 21.82% 9.72%+1.26 -4.9 38
2015-06-27 Ordabasy D 1-159.5 1370 1500 28.55% 26.83% 44.63%-0.26 +1.2 17
2015-06-27 @ Kaisar D 1-159.5 1500 1370 44.63% 26.83% 28.55%+0.26 -1.2 29
2015-06-28 Astana W 2-055.9 1633 1682 39.41% 27.04% 33.56%+0.08 +24.2 34
2015-06-28 @ Kairat L 0-255.9 1682 1633 33.56% 27.04% 39.41%-0.08 -24.2 33
2015-06-28 Atyrau D 2-264.0 1319 1485 24.25% 26.44% 49.31%-0.41 +1.4 23
2015-06-28 @ Okzhetpes D 2-264.0 1485 1319 49.31% 26.44% 24.25%+0.41 -1.4 34
2015-06-28 Shakter Karagandy W 3-140.9 1428 1325 57.79% 25.10% 17.11%+0.72 +12.0 22
2015-06-28 @ Irtysh L 1-340.9 1325 1428 17.11% 25.10% 57.79%-0.72 -12.0 11
2015-06-28 Taraz W 3-040.2 1398 1440 40.45% 27.01% 32.54%+0.11 +34.3 21
2015-06-28 @ Tobol L 0-340.2 1440 1398 32.54% 27.01% 40.45%-0.11 -34.3 20
2015-07-04 Irtysh D 0-055.9 1484 1440 51.46% 26.18% 22.36%+0.47 -2.5 35
2015-07-04 @ Atyrau D 0-055.9 1440 1484 22.36% 26.18% 51.46%-0.47 +2.5 23
2015-07-04 Kaisar W 2-038.7 1658 1372 72.72% 19.90% 7.38%+1.49 +5.9 36
2015-07-04 @ Astana L 0-238.7 1372 1658 7.38% 19.90% 72.72%-1.49 -5.9 17
2015-07-04 Zhetysu W 2-034.3 1406 1306 57.45% 25.18% 17.37%+0.70 +14.1 23
2015-07-04 @ Taraz L 0-234.3 1306 1406 17.37% 25.18% 57.45%-0.70 -14.1 11
2015-07-05 Kairat L 0-537.1 1313 1657 10.76% 22.49% 66.76%-1.16 -20.6 11
2015-07-05 @ Shakter Karagandy W 5-037.1 1657 1313 66.76% 22.49% 10.76%+1.16 +20.6 37
2015-07-05 Okzhetpes W 4-245.2 1663 1320 76.24% 18.04% 5.71%+1.73 +3.4 41
2015-07-05 @ Aktobe L 2-445.2 1320 1663 5.71% 18.04% 76.24%-1.73 -3.4 23
2015-07-05 Tobol W 2-040.7 1498 1432 53.92% 25.83% 20.25%+0.56 +16.1 32
2015-07-05 @ Ordabasy L 0-240.7 1432 1498 20.25% 25.83% 53.92%-0.56 -16.1 21
2015-07-10 Astana D 1-167.5 1416 1664 16.76% 25.01% 58.24%-0.76 +3.3 22
2015-07-10 @ Tobol D 1-167.5 1664 1416 58.24% 25.01% 16.76%+0.76 -3.3 37
2015-07-11 Atyrau D 1-157.4 1292 1481 21.89% 26.11% 52.00%-0.51 +2.3 12
2015-07-11 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-157.4 1481 1292 52.00% 26.11% 21.89%+0.51 -2.3 36
2015-07-11 Taraz W 2-042.3 1317 1420 31.94% 26.99% 41.07%-0.15 +28.1 26
2015-07-11 @ Okzhetpes L 0-242.3 1420 1317 41.07% 26.99% 31.94%+0.15 -28.1 23
2015-07-12 Aktobe W 1-061.2 1442 1666 18.67% 25.50% 55.83%-0.66 +19.3 26
2015-07-12 @ Irtysh L 0-161.2 1666 1442 55.83% 25.50% 18.67%+0.66 -19.3 41
2015-07-12 Kaisar W 1-042.2 1677 1366 74.37% 19.06% 6.57%+1.60 +2.7 40
2015-07-12 @ Kairat L 0-142.2 1366 1677 6.57% 19.06% 74.37%-1.60 -2.7 17
2015-07-12 Ordabasy W 3-045.9 1292 1515 18.81% 25.53% 55.66%-0.65 +52.7 14
2015-07-12 @ Zhetysu L 0-345.9 1515 1292 55.66% 25.53% 18.81%+0.65 -52.7 32
2015-07-18 Irtysh D 0-053.4 1392 1462 36.50% 27.07% 36.43%-0.01 -0.0 24
2015-07-18 @ Taraz D 0-053.4 1462 1392 36.43% 27.07% 36.50%+0.01 +0.0 27
2015-07-18 Tobol L 0-145.9 1363 1420 38.39% 27.05% 34.56%+0.05 -14.2 17
2015-07-18 @ Kaisar W 1-045.9 1420 1363 34.56% 27.05% 38.39%-0.05 +14.2 25
2015-07-18 Zhetysu W 2-147.2 1660 1345 74.60% 18.93% 6.46%+1.61 +2.5 40
2015-07-18 @ Astana L 1-247.2 1345 1660 6.46% 18.93% 74.60%-1.61 -2.5 14
2015-07-19 Kairat D 0-064.1 1479 1680 20.72% 25.91% 53.37%-0.56 +2.8 37
2015-07-19 @ Atyrau D 0-064.1 1680 1479 53.37% 25.91% 20.72%+0.56 -2.8 41
2015-07-19 Okzhetpes W 2-145.4 1462 1345 59.16% 24.79% 16.04%+0.78 +6.5 35
2015-07-19 @ Ordabasy L 1-245.4 1345 1462 16.04% 24.79% 59.16%-0.78 -6.5 26
2015-07-19 Shakter Karagandy L 0-159.1 1647 1295 76.82% 17.72% 5.46%+1.77 -25.1 41
2015-07-19 @ Aktobe W 1-059.1 1295 1647 5.46% 17.72% 76.82%-1.77 +25.1 15
2015-07-25 Astana L 1-249.9 1339 1663 11.76% 23.05% 65.18%-1.08 -4.8 26
2015-07-25 @ Okzhetpes W 2-149.9 1663 1339 65.18% 23.05% 11.76%+1.08 +4.8 43
2015-07-26 Aktobe L 0-249.4 1482 1622 27.26% 26.73% 46.01%-0.30 -20.6 37
2015-07-26 @ Atyrau W 2-049.4 1622 1482 46.01% 26.73% 27.26%+0.30 +20.6 44
2015-07-26 Kairat L 1-352.1 1434 1677 17.06% 25.09% 57.85%-0.74 -12.0 25
2015-07-26 @ Tobol W 3-152.1 1677 1434 57.85% 25.09% 17.06%+0.74 +12.0 44
2015-07-26 Kaisar W 2-147.6 1343 1349 45.23% 26.79% 27.98%+0.26 +10.5 17
2015-07-26 @ Zhetysu L 1-247.6 1349 1343 27.98% 26.79% 45.23%-0.26 -10.5 17
2015-07-26 Ordabasy W 2-043.3 1462 1468 45.17% 26.79% 28.04%+0.26 +21.1 30
2015-07-26 @ Irtysh L 0-243.3 1468 1462 28.04% 26.79% 45.17%-0.26 -21.1 35
2015-07-26 Taraz W 2-040.7 1320 1392 36.20% 27.07% 36.73%-0.02 +25.8 18
2015-07-26 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-240.7 1392 1320 36.73% 27.07% 36.20%+0.02 -25.8 24

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-08-13 Astana L 0-162.1 1642 1668 42.70% 26.93% 30.37%+0.18 -15.4 0
2015-08-13 @ Aktobe W 1-062.1 1668 1642 30.37% 26.93% 42.70%-0.18 +15.4 3
2015-08-14 Kairat D 0-063.7 1447 1689 17.18% 25.12% 57.70%-0.73 +3.6 1
2015-08-14 @ Ordabasy D 0-063.7 1689 1447 57.70% 25.12% 17.18%+0.73 -3.6 1
2015-08-15 Atyrau W 2-042.8 1483 1461 48.73% 26.50% 24.77%+0.38 +19.1 3
2015-08-15 @ Irtysh L 0-242.8 1461 1483 24.77% 26.50% 48.73%-0.38 -19.1 0
2015-08-15 Okzhetpes D 0-050.2 1346 1334 47.55% 26.61% 25.84%+0.34 -1.8 1
2015-08-15 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-050.2 1334 1346 25.84% 26.61% 47.55%-0.34 +1.8 1
2015-08-15 Taraz D 0-050.4 1338 1366 42.42% 26.94% 30.64%+0.17 -1.0 1
2015-08-15 @ Kaisar D 0-050.4 1366 1338 30.64% 26.94% 42.42%-0.17 +1.0 1
2015-08-16 Zhetysu L 1-352.6 1422 1353 54.23% 25.78% 19.99%+0.58 -30.7 0
2015-08-16 @ Tobol W 3-152.6 1353 1422 19.99% 25.78% 54.23%-0.58 +30.7 3
2015-08-23 Kaisar W 2-147.2 1336 1337 45.83% 26.75% 27.42%+0.28 +10.4 4
2015-08-23 @ Okzhetpes L 1-247.2 1337 1336 27.42% 26.75% 45.83%-0.28 -10.4 1
2015-08-23 Ordabasy W 1-046.4 1627 1451 64.51% 23.28% 12.21%+1.03 +5.3 3
2015-08-23 @ Aktobe L 0-146.4 1451 1627 12.21% 23.28% 64.51%-1.03 -5.3 1
2015-08-23 Shakter Karagandy W 2-146.2 1391 1344 51.82% 26.14% 22.04%+0.48 +8.7 3
2015-08-23 @ Tobol L 1-246.2 1344 1391 22.04% 26.14% 51.82%-0.48 -8.7 1
2015-08-23 Taraz W 1-041.2 1384 1367 48.19% 26.55% 25.26%+0.36 +10.3 6
2015-08-23 @ Zhetysu L 0-141.2 1367 1384 25.26% 26.55% 48.19%-0.36 -10.3 1
2015-08-24 Irtysh W 5-250.8 1686 1502 65.17% 23.06% 11.77%+1.06 +10.3 4
2015-08-24 @ Kairat L 2-550.8 1502 1686 11.77% 23.06% 65.17%-1.06 -10.3 3
2015-09-11 Astana L 2-361.4 1446 1683 17.53% 25.22% 57.25%-0.71 -6.7 1
2015-09-11 @ Ordabasy W 3-261.4 1683 1446 57.25% 25.22% 17.53%+0.71 +6.7 6
2015-09-12 Aktobe W 1-059.1 1491 1632 27.14% 26.72% 46.13%-0.31 +16.4 6
2015-09-12 @ Irtysh L 0-159.1 1632 1491 46.13% 26.72% 27.14%+0.31 -16.4 3
2015-09-12 Kairat L 1-256.5 1442 1696 16.27% 24.86% 58.87%-0.78 -6.6 0
2015-09-12 @ Atyrau W 2-156.5 1696 1442 58.87% 24.86% 16.27%+0.78 +6.6 7
2015-09-12 Okzhetpes D 3-365.3 1357 1346 47.39% 26.62% 25.99%+0.33 -1.0 2
2015-09-12 @ Taraz D 3-365.3 1346 1357 25.99% 26.62% 47.39%-0.33 +1.0 5
2015-09-13 Tobol L 1-250.6 1327 1400 36.08% 27.06% 36.85%-0.02 -12.8 1
2015-09-13 @ Kaisar W 2-150.6 1400 1327 36.85% 27.06% 36.08%+0.02 +12.8 6
2015-09-13 Zhetysu W 3-146.4 1335 1394 38.06% 27.06% 34.88%+0.04 +21.5 4
2015-09-13 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-346.4 1394 1335 34.88% 27.06% 38.06%-0.04 -21.5 6
2015-09-19 Kaisar D 1-155.8 1357 1314 51.25% 26.21% 22.54%+0.46 -2.2 5
2015-09-19 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.8 1314 1357 22.54% 26.21% 51.25%-0.46 +2.2 2
2015-09-19 Okzhetpes L 0-342.6 1372 1347 49.24% 26.44% 24.31%+0.39 -47.3 6
2015-09-19 @ Zhetysu W 3-042.6 1347 1372 24.31% 26.44% 49.24%-0.39 +47.3 8
2015-09-19 Taraz D 0-051.7 1412 1356 52.93% 25.98% 21.09%+0.53 -2.8 7
2015-09-19 @ Tobol D 0-051.7 1356 1412 21.09% 25.98% 52.93%-0.53 +2.8 3
2015-09-20 Atyrau W 1-045.4 1616 1436 64.87% 23.16% 11.97%+1.05 +5.2 6
2015-09-20 @ Aktobe L 0-145.4 1436 1616 11.97% 23.16% 64.87%-1.05 -5.2 0
2015-09-20 Irtysh D 1-162.0 1439 1508 36.62% 27.07% 36.31%+0.00 -0.0 2
2015-09-20 @ Ordabasy D 1-162.0 1508 1439 36.31% 27.07% 36.62%+0.00 +0.0 7
2015-09-20 Kairat L 0-163.3 1690 1702 44.40% 26.84% 28.76%+0.23 -15.9 6
2015-09-20 @ Astana W 1-063.3 1702 1690 28.76% 26.84% 44.40%-0.23 +15.9 10
2015-09-26 Astana W 2-168.0 1508 1674 24.26% 26.44% 49.30%-0.41 +16.3 10
2015-09-26 @ Irtysh L 1-268.0 1674 1508 49.30% 26.44% 24.26%+0.41 -16.3 6
2015-09-26 Ordabasy L 1-352.5 1430 1439 44.96% 26.81% 28.24%+0.25 -26.2 0
2015-09-26 @ Atyrau W 3-152.5 1439 1430 28.24% 26.81% 44.96%-0.25 +26.2 5
2015-09-27 Aktobe W 2-160.7 1718 1621 57.25% 25.22% 17.53%+0.70 +7.1 13
2015-09-27 @ Kairat L 1-260.7 1621 1718 17.53% 25.22% 57.25%-0.70 -7.1 6
2015-09-27 Shakter Karagandy W 2-037.6 1358 1354 46.54% 26.69% 26.77%+0.30 +20.3 6
2015-09-27 @ Taraz L 0-237.6 1354 1358 26.77% 26.69% 46.54%-0.30 -20.3 5
2015-09-27 Tobol L 1-254.4 1394 1410 44.04% 26.86% 29.10%+0.22 -14.9 8
2015-09-27 @ Okzhetpes W 2-154.4 1410 1394 29.10% 26.86% 44.04%-0.22 +14.8 10
2015-09-27 Zhetysu W 3-143.3 1316 1325 44.93% 26.81% 28.26%+0.25 +18.4 5
2015-09-27 @ Kaisar L 1-343.3 1325 1316 28.26% 26.81% 44.93%-0.25 -18.4 6
2015-10-03 Aktobe W 2-164.4 1465 1614 26.18% 26.64% 47.18%-0.34 +15.7 8
2015-10-03 @ Ordabasy L 1-264.4 1614 1465 47.18% 26.64% 26.18%+0.34 -15.7 6
2015-10-03 Kairat L 0-250.8 1524 1725 20.69% 25.91% 53.40%-0.56 -16.4 10
2015-10-03 @ Irtysh W 2-050.8 1725 1524 53.40% 25.91% 20.69%+0.56 +16.4 16
2015-10-03 Okzhetpes L 0-145.2 1335 1379 40.07% 27.02% 32.91%+0.10 -14.6 5
2015-10-03 @ Kaisar W 1-045.2 1379 1335 32.91% 27.02% 40.07%-0.10 +14.6 11
2015-10-03 Tobol L 1-250.4 1334 1425 33.60% 27.04% 39.37%-0.10 -12.1 5
2015-10-03 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-150.4 1425 1334 39.37% 27.04% 33.60%+0.10 +12.1 13
2015-10-03 Zhetysu W 1-038.3 1379 1307 54.57% 25.72% 19.71%+0.59 +8.4 9
2015-10-03 @ Taraz L 0-138.3 1307 1379 19.71% 25.72% 54.57%-0.59 -8.3 6
2015-10-04 Astana L 0-147.6 1404 1658 16.29% 24.87% 58.84%-0.78 -7.0 0
2015-10-04 @ Atyrau W 1-047.6 1658 1404 58.84% 24.87% 16.29%+0.78 +7.0 9
2015-10-17 Atyrau D 0-065.9 1742 1397 76.40% 17.95% 5.64%+1.74 -6.6 17
2015-10-17 @ Kairat D 0-065.9 1397 1742 5.64% 17.95% 76.40%-1.74 +6.6 1
2015-10-17 Irtysh W 3-260.9 1598 1508 56.55% 25.36% 18.09%+0.67 +6.9 9
2015-10-17 @ Aktobe L 2-360.9 1508 1598 18.09% 25.36% 56.55%-0.67 -6.9 10
2015-10-17 Ordabasy W 2-154.8 1665 1481 65.17% 23.06% 11.77%+1.06 +4.8 12
2015-10-17 @ Astana L 1-254.8 1481 1665 11.77% 23.06% 65.17%-1.06 -4.8 8
2015-10-18 Kaisar D 0-051.8 1437 1320 59.15% 24.80% 16.05%+0.78 -3.9 14
2015-10-18 @ Tobol D 0-051.8 1320 1437 16.05% 24.80% 59.15%-0.78 +3.9 6
2015-10-18 Shakter Karagandy L 0-145.0 1298 1322 42.95% 26.92% 30.14%+0.19 -15.4 6
2015-10-18 @ Zhetysu W 1-045.0 1322 1298 30.14% 26.92% 42.95%-0.19 +15.4 8
2015-10-18 Taraz D 0-051.7 1394 1387 46.97% 26.66% 26.38%+0.32 -1.7 12
2015-10-18 @ Okzhetpes D 0-051.7 1387 1394 26.38% 26.66% 46.97%-0.32 +1.7 10
2015-10-24 Aktobe D 1-164.7 1404 1605 20.68% 25.91% 53.42%-0.56 +2.5 2
2015-10-24 @ Atyrau D 1-164.7 1605 1404 53.42% 25.91% 20.68%+0.56 -2.5 10
2015-10-24 Shakter Karagandy L 0-145.8 1324 1337 44.31% 26.84% 28.85%+0.23 -15.8 6
2015-10-24 @ Kaisar W 1-045.8 1337 1324 28.85% 26.84% 44.31%-0.23 +15.8 11
2015-10-24 Tobol W 1-045.1 1389 1433 40.14% 27.02% 32.85%+0.10 +12.6 13
2015-10-24 @ Taraz L 0-145.1 1433 1389 32.85% 27.02% 40.14%-0.10 -12.6 14
2015-10-25 Astana L 0-166.0 1735 1669 53.92% 25.83% 20.26%+0.56 -18.7 17
2015-10-25 @ Kairat W 1-066.0 1669 1735 20.26% 25.83% 53.92%-0.56 +18.7 15
2015-10-25 Ordabasy L 1-261.2 1501 1476 49.17% 26.45% 24.38%+0.39 -16.3 10
2015-10-25 @ Irtysh W 2-161.2 1476 1501 24.38% 26.45% 49.17%-0.39 +16.3 11
2015-10-25 Zhetysu D 1-156.2 1392 1283 58.46% 24.96% 16.59%+0.75 -3.4 13
2015-10-25 @ Okzhetpes D 1-156.2 1283 1392 16.59% 24.96% 58.46%-0.75 +3.3 7
2015-10-28 Atyrau W 4-144.1 1688 1406 72.45% 20.03% 7.52%+1.47 +7.3 18
2015-10-28 @ Astana L 1-444.1 1406 1688 7.52% 20.03% 72.45%-1.47 -7.3 2
2015-10-31 Atyrau L 0-153.7 1492 1399 56.83% 25.30% 17.87%+0.68 -19.6 11
2015-10-31 @ Ordabasy W 1-053.7 1399 1492 17.87% 25.30% 56.83%-0.68 +19.6 5
2015-10-31 Irtysh W 1-048.6 1696 1484 67.34% 22.27% 10.40%+1.17 +4.5 21
2015-10-31 @ Astana L 0-148.6 1484 1696 10.40% 22.27% 67.34%-1.17 -4.5 10
2015-10-31 Kairat L 0-353.3 1603 1717 30.45% 26.93% 42.62%-0.19 -32.6 10
2015-10-31 @ Aktobe W 3-053.3 1717 1603 42.62% 26.93% 30.45%+0.19 +32.6 20
2015-10-31 Kaisar W 2-147.3 1286 1308 43.18% 26.91% 29.92%+0.19 +11.1 10
2015-10-31 @ Zhetysu L 1-247.3 1308 1286 29.92% 26.91% 43.18%-0.19 -11.1 6
2015-10-31 Okzhetpes W 1-041.8 1420 1389 49.93% 26.37% 23.70%+0.42 +9.8 17
2015-10-31 @ Tobol L 0-141.8 1389 1420 23.70% 26.37% 49.93%-0.42 -9.8 13
2015-10-31 Taraz W 3-038.6 1353 1401 39.61% 27.03% 33.36%+0.08 +35.0 14
2015-10-31 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-338.6 1401 1353 33.36% 27.03% 39.61%-0.08 -35.0 13
2015-11-08 Aktobe W 1-052.5 1700 1570 60.44% 24.48% 15.08%+0.83 +6.5 24
2015-11-08 @ Astana L 0-152.5 1570 1700 15.08% 24.48% 60.44%-0.83 -6.5 10
2015-11-08 Irtysh W 1-048.0 1418 1480 37.69% 27.06% 35.25%+0.03 +13.3 8
2015-11-08 @ Atyrau L 0-148.0 1480 1418 35.25% 27.06% 37.69%-0.03 -13.3 10
2015-11-08 Kaisar D 1-155.9 1366 1297 54.28% 25.77% 19.95%+0.58 -2.7 14
2015-11-08 @ Taraz D 1-155.9 1297 1366 19.95% 25.77% 54.28%-0.58 +2.7 7
2015-11-08 Ordabasy W 2-044.6 1749 1473 72.09% 20.20% 7.70%+1.45 +6.1 23
2015-11-08 @ Kairat L 0-244.6 1473 1749 7.70% 20.20% 72.09%-1.45 -6.1 11
2015-11-08 Shakter Karagandy W 1-042.5 1379 1388 44.89% 26.81% 28.30%+0.25 +11.3 16
2015-11-08 @ Okzhetpes L 0-142.5 1388 1379 28.30% 26.81% 44.89%-0.25 -11.3 14
2015-11-08 Tobol W 2-043.3 1297 1430 28.12% 26.80% 45.08%-0.27 +30.3 13
2015-11-08 @ Zhetysu L 0-243.3 1430 1297 45.08% 26.80% 28.12%+0.27 -30.3 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-07-19 5.46% Shakter Karagandy 1295 1 @ Aktobe 1647 0
2 2015-05-07 10.55% Atyrau 1415 1 @ Kairat 1623 0
3 2015-03-15 11.87% Okzhetpes 1284 2 @ Tobol 1466 0
4 2015-05-16 15.49% Okzhetpes 1318 2 @ Kaisar 1442 0
5 2015-04-11 15.78% @ Taraz 1400 2 Astana 1660 0
6 2015-03-21 17.76% @ Taraz 1388 1 Kairat 1623 0
7 2015-10-31 17.87% Atyrau 1399 1 @ Ordabasy 1492 0
8 2015-07-12 18.67% @ Irtysh 1442 1 Aktobe 1666 0
9 2015-07-12 18.81% @ Zhetysu 1292 3 Ordabasy 1515 0
10 2015-08-16 19.99% Zhetysu 1353 3 @ Tobol 1422 1
11 2015-10-25 20.26% Astana 1669 1 @ Kairat 1735 0
12 2015-03-11 20.73% @ Okzhetpes 1265 1 Kaisar 1466 0
13 2015-04-25 21.65% @ Kaisar 1436 2 Astana 1627 1
14 2015-04-25 22.68% Atyrau 1389 2 @ Irtysh 1430 1
15 2015-05-16 23.58% Atyrau 1438 1 @ Taraz 1470 0
16 2015-09-26 24.26% @ Irtysh 1508 2 Astana 1674 1
17 2015-09-19 24.31% Okzhetpes 1347 3 @ Zhetysu 1372 0
18 2015-10-25 24.38% Ordabasy 1476 2 @ Irtysh 1501 1
19 2015-04-15 24.57% Taraz 1438 3 @ Kaisar 1461 1
20 2015-04-25 26.05% @ Zhetysu 1326 1 Taraz 1476 0
21 2015-10-03 26.18% @ Ordabasy 1465 2 Aktobe 1614 1
22 2015-09-12 27.14% @ Irtysh 1491 1 Aktobe 1632 0
23 2015-03-11 27.56% Ordabasy 1446 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1443 0
24 2015-11-08 28.12% @ Zhetysu 1297 2 Tobol 1430 0
25 2015-09-26 28.24% Ordabasy 1439 3 @ Atyrau 1430 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-07-12 52.71 @ Zhetysu 3 1292 18.81% Ordabasy 0 1515 55.66% 25.53%
2 2015-09-19 47.35 Okzhetpes 3 1347 24.31% @ Zhetysu 0 1372 49.24% 26.44%
3 2015-03-15 41.66 Okzhetpes 2 1284 11.87% @ Tobol 0 1466 65.03% 23.11%
4 2015-05-16 38.75 Okzhetpes 2 1318 15.49% @ Kaisar 0 1442 59.90% 24.61%
5 2015-04-11 38.53 @ Taraz 2 1400 15.78% Astana 0 1660 59.51% 24.71%
6 2015-06-24 37.15 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1288 36.72% Okzhetpes 0 1356 36.22% 27.07%
7 2015-10-31 34.96 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1353 39.61% Taraz 0 1401 33.36% 27.03%
8 2015-06-28 34.32 @ Tobol 3 1398 40.45% Taraz 0 1440 32.54% 27.01%
9 2015-06-20 33.87 @ Zhetysu 3 1284 41.02% Shakter Karagandy 0 1322 31.99% 26.99%
10 2015-10-31 32.64 Kairat 3 1717 42.62% @ Aktobe 0 1603 30.45% 26.93%
11 2015-08-16 30.71 Zhetysu 3 1353 19.99% @ Tobol 1 1422 54.23% 25.78%
12 2015-11-08 30.28 @ Zhetysu 2 1297 28.12% Tobol 0 1430 45.08% 26.80%
13 2015-06-24 28.64 @ Taraz 3 1411 47.62% Kaisar 0 1399 25.78% 26.60%
14 2015-07-11 28.12 @ Okzhetpes 2 1317 31.94% Taraz 0 1420 41.07% 26.99%
15 2015-04-15 28.09 Taraz 3 1438 24.57% @ Kaisar 1 1461 48.95% 26.47%
16 2015-03-07 27.46 @ Kairat 4 1586 56.78% Tobol 0 1494 17.91% 25.31%
17 2015-09-26 26.16 Ordabasy 3 1439 28.24% @ Atyrau 1 1430 44.96% 26.81%
18 2015-07-26 25.84 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1320 36.20% Taraz 0 1392 36.73% 27.07%
19 2015-07-19 25.06 Shakter Karagandy 1 1295 5.46% @ Aktobe 0 1647 76.82% 17.72%
20 2015-03-21 24.60 @ Okzhetpes 2 1326 38.59% Zhetysu 0 1381 34.36% 27.05%
21 2015-03-11 24.59 Astana 3 1639 52.53% @ Irtysh 0 1445 21.43% 26.04%
22 2015-06-28 24.18 @ Kairat 2 1633 39.41% Astana 0 1682 33.56% 27.04%
23 2015-04-05 23.76 @ Tobol 4 1426 48.19% Shakter Karagandy 1 1409 25.26% 26.55%
24 2015-04-25 22.85 Ordabasy 3 1492 35.15% @ Tobol 1 1431 37.79% 27.06%
25 2015-05-07 22.69 Atyrau 1 1415 10.55% @ Kairat 0 1623 67.10% 22.36%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-04-11 74.1 @ Ordabasy 2 1490 28.32% Kairat 2 1621 44.86% 26.81%
2 2015-05-16 72.9 @ Astana 2 1637 69.73% Irtysh 2 1394 8.99% 21.28%
3 2015-04-19 69.4 @ Astana 4 1618 45.73% Kairat 3 1620 27.52% 26.75%
4 2015-04-15 68.7 @ Astana 1 1621 60.46% Ordabasy 1 1491 15.07% 24.47%
5 2015-09-26 68.0 @ Irtysh 2 1508 24.26% Astana 1 1674 49.30% 26.44%
6 2015-07-10 67.5 @ Tobol 1 1416 16.76% Astana 1 1664 58.24% 25.01%
7 2015-05-16 66.9 Aktobe 2 1637 31.85% @ Kairat 1 1600 41.16% 26.99%
8 2015-06-06 66.9 @ Aktobe 0 1670 48.61% Astana 0 1650 24.88% 26.51%
9 2015-06-24 66.6 @ Irtysh 1 1425 19.87% Kairat 1 1635 54.38% 25.75%
10 2015-03-21 66.4 @ Atyrau 1 1371 13.39% Astana 1 1667 62.79% 23.82%
11 2015-04-05 66.2 @ Astana 0 1663 54.08% Aktobe 0 1596 20.11% 25.80%
12 2015-10-25 66.0 Astana 1 1669 20.26% @ Kairat 0 1735 53.92% 25.83%
13 2015-10-17 65.9 @ Kairat 0 1742 76.40% Atyrau 0 1397 5.64% 17.95%
14 2015-06-20 65.5 @ Tobol 2 1401 36.84% Atyrau 2 1469 36.09% 27.06%
15 2015-09-12 65.3 @ Taraz 3 1357 47.39% Okzhetpes 3 1346 25.99% 26.62%
16 2015-04-25 65.2 @ Kaisar 2 1436 21.65% Astana 1 1627 52.28% 26.07%
17 2015-03-11 64.9 @ Aktobe 0 1592 43.12% Kairat 0 1614 29.97% 26.91%
18 2015-10-24 64.7 @ Atyrau 1 1404 20.68% Aktobe 1 1605 53.42% 25.91%
19 2015-06-27 64.4 @ Zhetysu 1 1302 9.72% Aktobe 1 1667 68.46% 21.82%
20 2015-10-03 64.4 @ Ordabasy 2 1465 26.18% Aktobe 1 1614 47.18% 26.64%
21 2015-03-07 64.3 @ Aktobe 1 1596 68.51% Atyrau 1 1370 9.69% 21.80%
22 2015-07-19 64.1 @ Atyrau 0 1479 20.72% Kairat 0 1680 53.37% 25.91%
23 2015-06-28 64.0 @ Okzhetpes 2 1319 24.25% Atyrau 2 1485 49.31% 26.44%
24 2015-04-20 63.9 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1381 39.48% Irtysh 2 1430 33.49% 27.03%
25 2015-08-14 63.7 @ Ordabasy 0 1447 17.18% Kairat 0 1689 57.70% 25.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-06-24 32.4 @ Atyrau 3 1469 62.36% Zhetysu 0 1318 13.69% 23.95%
2 2015-03-07 32.7 @ Astana 2 1635 77.60% Okzhetpes 0 1269 5.13% 17.27%
3 2015-07-04 34.3 @ Taraz 2 1406 57.45% Zhetysu 0 1306 17.37% 25.18%
4 2015-04-05 34.8 @ Kairat 4 1603 70.45% Okzhetpes 0 1350 8.58% 20.96%
5 2015-05-29 35.4 @ Kaisar 2 1387 53.73% Shakter Karagandy 0 1323 20.41% 25.86%
6 2015-04-19 35.7 @ Aktobe 2 1615 72.54% Zhetysu 0 1332 7.48% 19.99%
7 2015-06-20 36.4 @ Zhetysu 3 1284 41.02% Shakter Karagandy 0 1322 31.99% 26.99%
8 2015-05-24 36.5 Kairat 3 1586 59.76% @ Zhetysu 0 1323 15.59% 24.65%
9 2015-04-25 36.7 @ Kairat 4 1611 68.80% Shakter Karagandy 0 1380 9.52% 21.68%
10 2015-07-05 37.1 Kairat 5 1657 66.76% @ Shakter Karagandy 0 1313 10.76% 22.49%
11 2015-06-06 37.2 @ Irtysh 1 1403 58.71% Zhetysu 0 1291 16.39% 24.90%
12 2015-06-24 37.3 @ Taraz 3 1411 47.62% Kaisar 0 1399 25.78% 26.60%
13 2015-09-27 37.6 @ Taraz 2 1358 46.54% Shakter Karagandy 0 1354 26.77% 26.69%
14 2015-03-15 37.8 @ Ordabasy 2 1463 55.04% Atyrau 0 1386 19.32% 25.64%
15 2015-06-24 38.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1288 36.72% Okzhetpes 0 1356 36.22% 27.07%
16 2015-05-24 38.2 Astana 4 1634 62.19% @ Shakter Karagandy 0 1344 13.81% 24.00%
17 2015-10-03 38.3 @ Taraz 1 1379 54.57% Zhetysu 0 1307 19.71% 25.72%
18 2015-05-03 38.4 @ Astana 4 1610 66.62% Tobol 0 1408 10.84% 22.54%
19 2015-10-31 38.6 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1353 39.61% Taraz 0 1401 33.36% 27.03%
20 2015-07-04 38.7 @ Astana 2 1658 72.72% Kaisar 0 1372 7.38% 19.90%
21 2015-03-15 39.0 @ Kairat 2 1615 68.50% Zhetysu 0 1389 9.70% 21.80%
22 2015-05-16 39.2 @ Ordabasy 1 1519 63.98% Shakter Karagandy 0 1350 12.57% 23.45%
23 2015-03-21 39.9 @ Okzhetpes 2 1326 38.59% Zhetysu 0 1381 34.36% 27.05%
24 2015-06-28 40.2 @ Tobol 3 1398 40.45% Taraz 0 1440 32.54% 27.01%
25 2015-05-03 40.7 @ Atyrau 1 1406 50.98% Shakter Karagandy 0 1366 22.77% 26.24%