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2016 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Kairat

48 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Akzhayik

10.74 points above expected

30 points · 19.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aktobe

14.91 points below expected

22 points · 36.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Astana 22 17 2 3 53 34 14 +20
2 Kairat 22 14 4 4 46 50 22 +28
3 Irtysh 22 12 5 5 41 37 18 +19
4 Okzhetpes 22 11 4 7 37 33 23 +10
5 Ordabasy 22 9 6 7 33 26 27 -1
6 Tobol 22 8 4 10 28 28 26 +2
7 Atyrau 22 7 7 8 28 21 23 -2
8 Aktobe 22 7 7 8 28 23 32 -9
9 Zhetysu 22 6 5 11 23 22 32 -10
10 Shakter Karagandy 22 5 6 11 21 10 27 -17
11 Taraz 22 5 4 13 19 22 30 -8
12 Akzhayik 22 3 2 17 11 12 44 -32
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kairat 32 22 5 5 48 75 30 +45 — —
2 Astana 32 23 4 5 47 47 21 +26 — —
3 Ordabasy 32 13 9 10 32 41 44 -3 — —
4 Irtysh 32 14 7 11 29 52 36 +16 — —
5 Okzhetpes 32 13 6 13 27 42 44 -2 — —
6 Aktobe 32 9 9 14 22 37 52 -15 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Akzhayik 32 11 2 19 30 27 50 -23 — —
2 Tobol 32 12 5 15 27 40 40 0 — —
3 Taraz 32 10 5 17 26 33 42 -9 — —
4 Shakter Karagandy 32 10 6 16 26 25 40 -15 — —
5 Atyrau 32 10 9 13 25 35 39 -4 — —
6 Zhetysu 32 8 7 17 20 37 53 -16 — —

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Akzhayik 30 19.26 +10.74
2 Taraz 26 23.37 +2.63
3 Kairat 48 46.15 +1.85
4 Astana 47 45.17 +1.83
5 Shakter Karagandy 26 24.65 +1.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aktobe 22 36.91 -14.91
2 Irtysh 29 34.51 -5.51
3 Atyrau 25 29.51 -4.51
4 Okzhetpes 27 30.64 -3.64
5 Zhetysu 20 23.35 -3.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Akzhayik 5 Aug 14 – Sep 17 1 in 1,021
2 Taraz 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 146
3 Okzhetpes 5 Apr 3 – Apr 23 1 in 88
4 Ordabasy 3 Aug 26 – Sep 17 1 in 38
5 Zhetysu 3 May 15 – May 29 1 in 32

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Irtysh 5 Aug 12 – Sep 17 1 in 74
2 Aktobe 4 Jun 11 – Jun 24 1 in 46
3 Taraz 4 Apr 3 – Apr 17 1 in 43
4 Akzhayik 7 Jun 15 – Jul 24 1 in 40
5 Tobol 3 Oct 16 – Oct 29 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Akzhayik 5 Aug 14 – Sep 17 1 in 59
2 Irtysh 10 Mar 13 – May 9 1 in 50
3 Okzhetpes 6 Mar 19 – Apr 23 1 in 30
4 Ordabasy 6 Jun 11 – Jul 10 1 in 23
5 Taraz 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Taraz 16 Mar 19 – Jun 19 1 in 835
2 Aktobe 7 May 21 – Jun 24 1 in 83
3 Kairat 3 Mar 12 – Apr 3 1 in 25
4 Atyrau 5 Jun 25 – Jul 16 1 in 16
5 Irtysh 5 Aug 12 – Sep 17 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Astana 1720 73 -1 8 9.0 -1.0
Kairat 1796 71 +18 13 10.5 +2.5
Irtysh 1584 49 +19 8 6.3 +1.7
Ordabasy 1533 48 -9 5 5.8 -0.8
Okzhetpes 1515 45 +4 5 4.3 +0.7
Tobol 1487 41 -15 6 7.8 -1.8
Atyrau 1501 39 +7 9 8.4 +0.6
Shakter Karagandy 1451 36 -2 6 6.8 -0.8
Aktobe 1557 36 -21 1 5.8 -4.8
Taraz 1461 35 +7 10 7.4 +2.6
Akzhayik 1383 35 +22 9 4.8 +4.2
Zhetysu 1413 31 -20 4 6.9 -2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKT AKZ AST ATY IRT KAI OKZ ORD SK TAR TOB ZHE
Aktobe —
1-1-0
4.26
0-0-4
3.77
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-2
5.63
0-0-4
3.21
2-1-1
6.31
0-2-2
6.26
2-0-0
3.78
0-2-0
3.79
1-0-1
3.52
1-1-0
3.90
Akzhayik
0-1-1
1.40
—
0-0-2
0.80
2-0-2
3.73
0-1-1
1.61
1-0-1
0.83
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
1.61
1-0-3
4.34
3-0-1
4.22
2-0-2
3.61
2-0-2
4.49
Astana
4-0-0
7.48
2-0-0
4.94
—
1-0-1
4.30
1-3-0
7.55
1-0-3
5.11
3-1-0
8.38
4-0-0
8.04
1-0-1
4.55
2-0-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.57
Atyrau
0-1-1
2.33
2-0-2
7.53
1-0-1
1.37
—
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
1.35
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.57
1-2-1
6.53
2-1-1
6.47
2-2-0
5.78
1-2-1
6.66
Irtysh
2-1-1
5.57
1-1-0
4.05
0-3-1
3.70
2-0-0
3.27
—
0-0-4
3.17
3-0-1
6.32
1-1-2
6.28
1-1-0
3.66
1-0-1
3.89
1-0-1
3.55
2-0-0
3.83
Kairat
4-0-0
8.08
1-0-1
4.91
3-0-1
6.10
2-0-0
4.32
4-0-0
8.12
—
3-1-0
8.79
0-2-2
8.61
1-1-0
4.61
1-0-1
4.60
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-0
4.73
Okzhetpes
1-1-2
4.90
2-0-0
3.69
0-1-3
2.93
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-3
4.89
0-1-3
2.56
—
2-1-1
5.26
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.47
Ordabasy
2-2-0
4.95
2-0-0
4.03
0-0-4
3.25
1-1-0
3.03
2-1-1
4.92
2-2-0
2.73
1-1-2
5.94
—
1-1-0
3.53
1-0-1
3.54
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
3.53
Shakter Karagandy
0-0-2
1.85
3-0-1
6.89
1-0-1
1.14
1-2-1
4.68
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
1.09
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
2.08
—
2-0-2
5.54
1-0-3
4.97
2-1-1
5.88
Taraz
0-2-0
1.85
1-0-3
7.01
0-0-2
1.17
1-1-2
4.75
1-0-1
1.74
1-0-1
1.10
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.08
2-0-2
5.66
—
2-0-2
4.83
1-1-2
5.77
Tobol
1-0-1
2.10
2-0-2
7.64
0-0-2
1.35
0-2-2
5.43
1-0-1
2.07
0-0-2
1.27
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.46
3-0-1
6.23
2-0-2
6.37
—
2-1-1
6.52
Zhetysu
0-1-1
1.74
2-0-2
6.73
0-0-2
1.13
1-2-1
4.56
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
0.98
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
2.09
1-1-2
5.32
2-1-1
5.43
1-1-2
4.70
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +4.7
Allowed 0.68 -8.0
Differential 0.72 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.24%7.03%3.39%0.26%1.04%32.29%
112.24%5.21%7.55%3.39%1.56%0.52%30.47%
27.03%7.55%4.17%2.34%0.26%0.52%21.88%
33.39%3.39%2.34%1.04%0.26%—10.42%
40.26%1.56%0.26%0.26%0.52%—2.86%
5+1.04%0.52%0.52%———2.08%
Total32.29%30.47%21.88%10.42%2.86%2.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.78
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%—3.12%——25.00%
112.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%46.88%
26.25%3.12%6.25%——3.12%18.75%
33.12%—3.12%———6.25%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%31.25%15.62%9.38%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.62 -0.47
SD 0.99 1.62 1.70
CV 0.85 1.00 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%12.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%43.75%
115.62%—9.38%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
26.25%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—21.88%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%28.12%21.88%9.38%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 1.56 -0.72
SD 0.88 1.48 1.82
CV 1.05 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
131.25%3.12%——3.12%—37.50%
29.38%15.62%3.12%———28.12%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total53.12%34.38%9.38%—3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 0.66 +0.81
SD 1.14 0.90 1.47
CV 0.77 1.37 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%3.12%6.25%——37.50%
112.50%6.25%9.38%3.12%——31.25%
26.25%6.25%3.12%——3.12%18.75%
33.12%——3.12%3.12%—9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total40.62%25.00%15.62%12.50%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.22 -0.12
SD 1.12 1.36 1.62
CV 1.02 1.12 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
16.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
29.38%3.12%3.12%6.25%——21.88%
39.38%6.25%—3.12%——18.75%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total34.38%34.38%15.62%15.62%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.12 +0.50
SD 1.41 1.07 1.83
CV 0.87 0.95 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%————9.38%
112.50%9.38%9.38%———31.25%
26.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
33.12%12.50%9.38%———25.00%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+9.38%—6.25%———15.62%
Total34.38%37.50%28.12%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.34 0.94 +1.41
SD 1.70 0.80 1.83
CV 0.72 0.85 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%3.12%6.25%—6.25%37.50%
16.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
215.62%—6.25%———21.88%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
5+———————
Total34.38%31.25%15.62%9.38%3.12%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.38 -0.06
SD 1.33 1.54 2.33
CV 1.01 1.12 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
112.50%3.12%—6.25%——21.88%
26.25%18.75%12.50%———37.50%
3—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+———————
Total25.00%34.38%21.88%15.62%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.38 -0.09
SD 1.08 1.13 1.42
CV 0.85 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%9.38%21.88%6.25%—3.12%59.38%
19.38%—6.25%———15.62%
23.12%9.38%—3.12%——15.62%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total34.38%25.00%28.12%9.38%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.25 -0.47
SD 1.13 1.22 1.81
CV 1.44 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%15.62%6.25%———31.25%
19.38%3.12%18.75%9.38%——40.62%
23.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
33.12%—3.12%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%31.25%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.31 -0.28
SD 0.90 1.00 1.28
CV 0.87 0.76 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
115.62%3.12%15.62%3.12%——37.50%
23.12%—6.25%3.12%——12.50%
33.12%3.12%9.38%———15.62%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%21.88%37.50%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.25 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.02 1.63
CV 1.00 0.81 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%9.38%3.12%——34.38%
13.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%6.25%—28.12%
29.38%6.25%3.12%9.38%——28.12%
3——3.12%3.12%——6.25%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%21.88%21.88%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.66 -0.50
SD 1.08 1.21 1.41
CV 0.93 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kairat 1796 48 46.15 +1.85 47.0% 26 35 43 47 50 55 57
Astana 1720 47 45.17 +1.83 97.0% 34 36 41 46 49 53 56
Irtysh 1584 29 34.51 -5.51 88.0% 16 25 31 34 38 44 51
Aktobe 1557 22 36.91 -14.91 9.0% 21 27 33 38 40 45 51
Ordabasy 1533 32 31.04 +0.96 66.0% 15 19 27 31 35 41 48
Okzhetpes 1515 27 30.64 -3.64 87.0% 17 19 26 31 34 41 47
Atyrau 1501 25 29.51 -4.51 42.0% 18 20 25 30 33 39 45
Tobol 1487 27 27.70 -0.70 58.0% 17 19 23 27 31 39 51
Taraz 1461 26 23.37 +2.63 28.0% 6 14 19 23 27 34 41
Shakter Karagandy 1451 26 24.65 +1.35 31.0% 12 16 21 24 28 35 48
Zhetysu 1413 20 23.35 -3.35 48.0% 11 13 20 24 27 32 38
Akzhayik 1383 30 19.26 +10.74 6.0% 6 11 16 19 23 28 34

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.35%
Slight Edge
51.04%19.27%29.69%
Elo Value
Home Edge
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
075.35500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.35 goals
Neutral
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Kairat, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.8 * Some Luck: 4.8 to 7.2 * Lucky: 7.2 to 9.6 * Wild Swing: 9.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.23 points
Some Luck
06.0015
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.33
Off
01.684
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Astana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.00%
Akzhayik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 119.92
1.15
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Very Even
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.83
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.46
Weak Carryover
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1220.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Kairat52.00%30.00%7.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%—————
Astana40.00%37.00%14.00%9.00%————————
Ordabasy2.00%3.00%7.00%14.00%12.00%21.00%8.00%14.00%9.00%4.00%5.00%1.00%
Akzhayik————2.00%—4.00%5.00%3.00%22.00%21.00%43.00%
Irtysh1.00%10.00%23.00%18.00%16.00%12.00%6.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%—
Tobol1.00%2.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%9.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%1.00%
Okzhetpes—2.00%11.00%8.00%18.00%20.00%13.00%8.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%
Taraz——3.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%15.00%15.00%12.00%22.00%15.00%
Shakter Karagandy—1.00%1.00%2.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%13.00%13.00%13.00%14.00%18.00%
Atyrau1.00%1.00%8.00%7.00%15.00%14.00%17.00%10.00%13.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%
Aktobe3.00%14.00%19.00%27.00%17.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%—2.00%2.00%—
Zhetysu———1.00%3.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%18.00%20.00%16.00%18.00%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Aktobe 100% — —
Astana 100% — —
Atyrau 95.00% 5.00% —
Irtysh 100% — —
Kairat 100% — —
Ordabasy 100% — —
Tobol 92.00% 8.00% —
Okzhetpes 96.00% 3.00% 1.00%
Shakter Karagandy 73.00% 17.00% 10.00%
Taraz 67.00% 22.00% 11.00%
Zhetysu 66.00% 21.00% 13.00%
Akzhayik 11.00% 24.00% 65.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-03-12 Atyrau D 1-164.2 1450 1514 41.67% 20.42% 37.91%+0.05 -0.1 1
2016-03-12 @ Zhetysu D 1-164.2 1514 1450 37.91% 20.42% 41.67%-0.05 +0.1 1
2016-03-12 Kairat W 2-170.0 1471 1738 18.49% 17.70% 63.81%-0.96 +6.8 3
2016-03-12 @ Taraz L 1-270.0 1738 1471 63.81% 17.70% 18.49%+0.96 -6.8 0
2016-03-12 Shakter Karagandy W 2-152.6 1696 1478 73.77% 14.57% 11.66%+1.47 +1.4 3
2016-03-12 @ Astana L 1-252.6 1478 1696 11.66% 14.57% 73.77%-1.47 -1.4 0
2016-03-13 Aktobe W 3-157.4 1537 1601 41.79% 20.42% 37.79%+0.06 +7.6 3
2016-03-13 @ Ordabasy L 1-357.4 1601 1537 37.79% 20.42% 41.79%-0.06 -7.6 0
2016-03-13 Akzhayik W 1-040.7 1491 1398 61.87% 18.16% 19.98%+0.85 +2.6 3
2016-03-13 @ Tobol L 0-140.7 1398 1491 19.98% 18.16% 61.87%-0.85 -2.6 0
2016-03-13 Okzhetpes W 1-047.1 1539 1488 56.94% 19.11% 23.95%+0.63 +3.1 3
2016-03-13 @ Irtysh L 0-147.1 1488 1539 23.95% 19.11% 56.94%-0.63 -3.1 0
2016-03-19 Aktobe D 1-168.2 1477 1594 34.46% 20.31% 45.23%-0.20 +0.3 4
2016-03-19 @ Taraz D 1-168.2 1594 1477 45.23% 20.31% 34.46%+0.20 -0.3 1
2016-03-19 Irtysh L 0-340.2 1395 1542 30.52% 20.04% 49.44%-0.36 -10.6 0
2016-03-19 @ Akzhayik W 3-040.2 1542 1395 49.44% 20.04% 30.52%+0.36 +10.6 6
2016-03-19 Kairat D 1-172.9 1485 1731 20.24% 18.23% 61.53%-0.86 +1.1 1
2016-03-19 @ Okzhetpes D 1-172.9 1731 1485 61.53% 18.23% 20.24%+0.86 -1.1 1
2016-03-20 Astana L 1-357.4 1545 1697 29.91% 19.98% 50.12%-0.39 -6.2 3
2016-03-20 @ Ordabasy W 3-157.4 1697 1545 50.12% 19.98% 29.91%+0.39 +6.2 6
2016-03-20 Zhetysu D 0-058.1 1477 1450 54.05% 19.54% 26.41%+0.52 -0.8 1
2016-03-20 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-058.1 1450 1477 26.41% 19.54% 54.05%-0.52 +0.8 2
2016-04-03 Aktobe W 1-052.1 1703 1593 63.63% 17.74% 18.63%+0.93 +2.4 9
2016-04-03 @ Astana L 0-152.1 1593 1703 18.63% 17.74% 63.63%-0.93 -2.5 1
2016-04-03 Atyrau W 3-043.2 1553 1514 55.42% 19.35% 25.23%+0.57 +9.0 9
2016-04-03 @ Irtysh L 0-343.2 1514 1553 25.23% 19.35% 55.42%-0.57 -9.0 1
2016-04-03 Kairat W 2-169.1 1384 1730 13.16% 15.43% 71.42%-1.36 +7.5 3
2016-04-03 @ Akzhayik L 1-269.1 1730 1384 71.42% 15.43% 13.16%+1.36 -7.5 1
2016-04-03 Okzhetpes L 1-354.7 1478 1486 49.43% 20.04% 30.53%+0.34 -9.4 4
2016-04-03 @ Taraz W 3-154.7 1486 1478 30.53% 20.04% 49.43%-0.34 +9.4 4
2016-04-03 Ordabasy L 1-256.2 1450 1539 38.26% 20.43% 41.31%-0.07 -4.4 2
2016-04-03 @ Zhetysu W 2-156.2 1539 1450 41.31% 20.43% 38.26%+0.07 +4.4 6
2016-04-03 Shakter Karagandy W 3-040.4 1494 1476 52.86% 19.69% 27.45%+0.47 +9.7 6
2016-04-03 @ Tobol L 0-340.4 1476 1494 27.45% 19.69% 52.86%-0.47 -9.7 1
2016-04-09 Irtysh L 0-247.8 1466 1562 37.30% 20.41% 42.28%-0.10 -8.7 1
2016-04-09 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-047.8 1562 1466 42.28% 20.41% 37.30%+0.10 +8.6 12
2016-04-09 Kairat L 0-152.6 1505 1722 22.89% 18.89% 58.22%-0.71 -3.0 1
2016-04-09 @ Atyrau W 1-052.6 1722 1505 58.22% 18.89% 22.89%+0.71 +3.0 4
2016-04-09 Okzhetpes L 0-242.4 1392 1496 36.14% 20.38% 43.48%-0.14 -8.4 3
2016-04-09 @ Akzhayik W 2-042.4 1496 1392 43.48% 20.38% 36.14%+0.14 +8.4 7
2016-04-09 Taraz W 2-152.1 1706 1468 75.41% 13.93% 10.66%+1.57 +1.3 12
2016-04-09 @ Astana L 1-252.1 1468 1706 10.66% 13.93% 75.41%-1.57 -1.3 4
2016-04-09 Tobol D 2-273.4 1543 1504 55.57% 19.33% 25.10%+0.58 -0.6 7
2016-04-09 @ Ordabasy D 2-273.4 1504 1543 25.10% 19.33% 55.57%-0.58 +0.6 7
2016-04-09 Zhetysu W 3-255.0 1591 1446 67.18% 16.78% 16.03%+1.11 +1.9 4
2016-04-09 @ Aktobe L 2-355.0 1446 1591 16.03% 16.78% 67.18%-1.11 -1.9 2
2016-04-13 Aktobe L 1-260.1 1504 1593 38.25% 20.43% 41.33%-0.07 -4.4 7
2016-04-13 @ Tobol W 2-160.1 1593 1504 41.33% 20.43% 38.25%+0.07 +4.4 7
2016-04-13 Akzhayik L 0-151.8 1467 1384 60.74% 18.40% 20.86%+0.80 -6.9 4
2016-04-13 @ Taraz W 1-051.8 1384 1467 20.86% 18.40% 60.74%-0.80 +6.9 6
2016-04-13 Astana L 0-149.3 1444 1707 18.83% 17.81% 63.37%-0.94 -2.5 2
2016-04-13 @ Zhetysu W 1-049.3 1707 1444 63.37% 17.81% 18.83%+0.94 +2.5 15
2016-04-13 Atyrau W 2-044.5 1504 1502 50.75% 19.92% 29.33%+0.39 +7.1 10
2016-04-13 @ Okzhetpes L 0-244.5 1502 1504 29.33% 19.92% 50.75%-0.39 -7.1 1
2016-04-13 Ordabasy W 2-047.2 1570 1543 54.10% 19.53% 26.37%+0.52 +6.4 15
2016-04-13 @ Irtysh L 0-247.2 1543 1570 26.37% 19.53% 54.10%-0.52 -6.4 7
2016-04-13 Shakter Karagandy D 0-068.8 1725 1458 77.72% 12.97% 9.31%+1.72 -2.1 5
2016-04-13 @ Kairat D 0-068.8 1458 1725 9.31% 12.97% 77.72%-1.72 +2.1 2
2016-04-17 Akzhayik W 2-036.5 1495 1390 63.09% 17.87% 19.04%+0.91 +4.7 4
2016-04-17 @ Atyrau L 0-236.5 1390 1495 19.04% 17.87% 63.09%-0.91 -4.7 6
2016-04-17 Irtysh D 1-171.5 1597 1577 53.18% 19.65% 27.17%+0.48 -0.7 8
2016-04-17 @ Aktobe D 1-171.5 1577 1597 27.17% 19.65% 53.18%-0.48 +0.7 16
2016-04-17 Kairat W 1-062.9 1536 1723 25.94% 19.47% 54.60%-0.56 +6.3 10
2016-04-17 @ Ordabasy L 0-162.9 1723 1536 54.60% 19.47% 25.94%+0.56 -6.3 5
2016-04-17 Okzhetpes L 0-151.3 1460 1511 43.57% 20.38% 36.05%+0.12 -5.2 2
2016-04-17 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-051.3 1511 1460 36.05% 20.38% 43.57%-0.12 +5.2 13
2016-04-17 Taraz W 2-151.0 1442 1460 48.09% 20.15% 31.77%+0.29 +3.8 5
2016-04-17 @ Zhetysu L 1-251.0 1460 1442 31.77% 20.15% 48.09%-0.29 -3.8 4
2016-04-17 Tobol W 1-047.8 1710 1500 73.12% 14.81% 12.06%+1.43 +1.5 18
2016-04-17 @ Astana L 0-147.8 1500 1710 12.06% 14.81% 73.12%-1.43 -1.6 7
2016-04-23 Aktobe W 3-046.2 1717 1596 64.73% 17.46% 17.81%+0.98 +6.4 8
2016-04-23 @ Kairat L 0-346.2 1596 1717 17.81% 17.46% 64.73%-0.98 -6.4 8
2016-04-23 Astana D 2-279.3 1577 1711 32.18% 20.18% 47.65%-0.29 +0.3 17
2016-04-23 @ Irtysh D 2-279.3 1711 1577 47.65% 20.18% 32.18%+0.29 -0.3 19
2016-04-23 Atyrau D 0-059.0 1456 1500 44.60% 20.34% 35.05%+0.16 -0.3 5
2016-04-23 @ Taraz D 0-059.0 1500 1456 35.05% 20.34% 44.60%-0.16 +0.3 5
2016-04-23 Ordabasy W 2-047.5 1516 1543 47.02% 20.22% 32.77%+0.25 +7.8 16
2016-04-23 @ Okzhetpes L 0-247.5 1543 1516 32.77% 20.22% 47.02%-0.25 -7.8 10
2016-04-23 Shakter Karagandy L 0-146.2 1386 1455 41.02% 20.43% 38.55%+0.03 -5.0 6
2016-04-23 @ Akzhayik W 1-046.2 1455 1386 38.55% 20.43% 41.02%-0.03 +5.0 5
2016-04-23 Zhetysu D 2-269.6 1498 1446 57.18% 19.07% 23.75%+0.64 -0.7 8
2016-04-23 @ Tobol D 2-269.6 1446 1498 23.75% 19.07% 57.18%-0.64 +0.7 6
2016-05-01 Akzhayik W 1-039.7 1535 1381 68.08% 16.52% 15.41%+1.15 +2.0 13
2016-05-01 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.7 1381 1535 15.41% 16.52% 68.08%-1.15 -2.0 6
2016-05-01 Atyrau D 0-059.1 1460 1500 45.03% 20.32% 34.64%+0.17 -0.3 6
2016-05-01 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.1 1500 1460 34.64% 20.32% 45.03%-0.17 +0.3 6
2016-05-01 Irtysh L 0-344.1 1446 1578 32.45% 20.20% 47.35%-0.28 -11.2 6
2016-05-01 @ Zhetysu W 3-044.1 1578 1446 47.35% 20.20% 32.45%+0.28 +11.2 20
2016-05-01 Kairat W 1-057.7 1711 1723 48.88% 20.09% 31.04%+0.32 +3.9 22
2016-05-01 @ Astana L 0-157.7 1723 1711 31.04% 20.09% 48.88%-0.32 -3.9 8
2016-05-01 Okzhetpes W 1-049.6 1590 1524 58.74% 18.80% 22.46%+0.71 +2.9 11
2016-05-01 @ Aktobe L 0-149.6 1524 1590 22.46% 18.80% 58.74%-0.71 -2.9 16
2016-05-01 Taraz W 1-044.7 1498 1456 55.82% 19.29% 24.89%+0.59 +3.2 11
2016-05-01 @ Tobol L 0-144.7 1456 1498 24.89% 19.29% 55.82%-0.59 -3.2 5
2016-05-05 Aktobe D 0-060.0 1379 1593 23.15% 18.95% 57.90%-0.70 +1.0 7
2016-05-05 @ Akzhayik D 0-060.0 1593 1379 57.90% 18.95% 23.15%+0.70 -1.0 12
2016-05-05 Astana L 0-153.6 1521 1715 25.23% 19.35% 55.42%-0.59 -3.3 16
2016-05-05 @ Okzhetpes W 1-053.6 1715 1521 55.42% 19.35% 25.23%+0.59 +3.3 25
2016-05-05 Ordabasy D 2-272.7 1501 1537 45.66% 20.29% 34.05%+0.20 -0.2 7
2016-05-05 @ Atyrau D 2-272.7 1537 1501 34.05% 20.29% 45.66%-0.20 +0.2 14
2016-05-05 Shakter Karagandy L 1-256.7 1453 1459 49.68% 20.02% 30.30%+0.35 -5.5 5
2016-05-05 @ Taraz W 2-156.7 1459 1453 30.30% 20.02% 49.68%-0.35 +5.5 9
2016-05-05 Tobol W 3-150.1 1589 1501 61.24% 18.29% 20.47%+0.82 +4.4 23
2016-05-05 @ Irtysh L 1-350.1 1501 1589 20.47% 18.29% 61.24%-0.82 -4.4 11
2016-05-05 Zhetysu W 2-041.0 1719 1435 78.95% 12.44% 8.62%+1.81 +2.0 11
2016-05-05 @ Kairat L 0-241.0 1435 1719 8.62% 12.44% 78.95%-1.81 -2.0 6
2016-05-09 Atyrau W 1-048.0 1592 1500 61.63% 18.21% 20.16%+0.84 +2.6 15
2016-05-09 @ Aktobe L 0-148.0 1500 1592 20.16% 18.21% 61.63%-0.84 -2.6 7
2016-05-09 Shakter Karagandy W 2-041.7 1537 1465 59.44% 18.66% 21.90%+0.74 +5.4 17
2016-05-09 @ Ordabasy L 0-241.7 1465 1537 21.90% 18.66% 59.44%-0.74 -5.4 9
2016-05-09 Taraz W 2-150.3 1593 1447 67.29% 16.75% 15.96%+1.11 +2.0 26
2016-05-09 @ Irtysh L 1-250.3 1447 1593 15.96% 16.75% 67.29%-1.11 -2.0 5
2016-05-10 Akzhayik W 2-038.2 1718 1380 82.51% 10.78% 6.71%+2.08 +1.5 28
2016-05-10 @ Astana L 0-238.2 1380 1718 6.71% 10.78% 82.51%-2.08 -1.5 7
2016-05-10 Kairat L 1-258.0 1497 1721 22.13% 18.72% 59.15%-0.75 -2.7 11
2016-05-10 @ Tobol W 2-158.0 1721 1497 59.15% 18.72% 22.13%+0.75 +2.7 14
2016-05-10 Okzhetpes L 1-448.1 1433 1518 38.76% 20.43% 40.81%-0.05 -10.9 6
2016-05-10 @ Zhetysu W 4-148.1 1518 1433 40.81% 20.43% 38.76%+0.05 +10.9 19
2016-05-14 Aktobe L 0-247.1 1459 1595 32.00% 20.16% 47.84%-0.30 -7.6 9
2016-05-14 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-047.1 1595 1459 47.84% 20.16% 32.00%+0.30 +7.6 18
2016-05-14 Ordabasy L 1-255.7 1445 1542 37.05% 20.41% 42.54%-0.11 -4.3 5
2016-05-14 @ Taraz W 2-155.7 1542 1445 42.54% 20.41% 37.05%+0.11 +4.3 20
2016-05-15 Astana W 1-063.2 1498 1720 22.43% 18.79% 58.78%-0.74 +6.7 10
2016-05-15 @ Atyrau L 0-163.2 1720 1498 58.78% 18.79% 22.43%+0.74 -6.7 28
2016-05-15 Irtysh W 1-051.8 1724 1595 65.59% 17.23% 17.17%+1.03 +2.3 17
2016-05-15 @ Kairat L 0-151.8 1595 1724 17.17% 17.23% 65.59%-1.03 -2.2 26
2016-05-15 Tobol D 1-166.7 1529 1494 55.00% 19.41% 25.59%+0.55 -0.8 20
2016-05-15 @ Okzhetpes D 1-166.7 1494 1529 25.59% 19.41% 55.00%-0.55 +0.8 12
2016-05-15 Zhetysu L 1-252.1 1378 1422 44.60% 20.34% 35.06%+0.16 -5.0 7
2016-05-15 @ Akzhayik W 2-152.1 1422 1378 35.06% 20.34% 44.60%-0.16 +5.0 9
2016-05-21 Akzhayik D 0-061.1 1593 1373 73.97% 14.50% 11.54%+1.48 -1.9 27
2016-05-21 @ Irtysh D 0-061.1 1373 1593 11.54% 14.50% 73.97%-1.48 +1.9 8
2016-05-21 Atyrau L 1-259.7 1495 1504 49.23% 20.06% 30.72%+0.33 -5.4 12
2016-05-21 @ Tobol W 2-159.7 1504 1495 30.72% 20.06% 49.23%-0.33 +5.4 13
2016-05-21 Okzhetpes W 6-044.2 1726 1528 72.16% 15.17% 12.68%+1.37 +8.6 20
2016-05-21 @ Kairat L 0-644.2 1528 1726 12.68% 15.17% 72.16%-1.37 -8.6 20
2016-05-21 Ordabasy W 3-151.9 1713 1547 69.23% 16.16% 14.61%+1.21 +3.1 31
2016-05-21 @ Astana L 1-351.9 1547 1713 14.61% 16.16% 69.23%-1.21 -3.1 20
2016-05-21 Shakter Karagandy W 2-041.1 1427 1452 47.22% 20.20% 32.58%+0.25 +7.7 12
2016-05-21 @ Zhetysu L 0-241.1 1452 1427 32.58% 20.20% 47.22%-0.25 -7.7 9
2016-05-21 Taraz D 2-274.1 1602 1441 68.76% 16.31% 14.94%+1.19 -1.1 19
2016-05-21 @ Aktobe D 2-274.1 1441 1602 14.94% 16.31% 68.76%-1.19 +1.1 6
2016-05-29 Akzhayik W 3-252.5 1735 1375 83.80% 10.14% 6.06%+2.18 +0.6 23
2016-05-29 @ Kairat L 2-352.5 1375 1735 6.06% 10.14% 83.80%-2.18 -0.7 8
2016-05-29 Astana L 0-157.9 1601 1716 34.63% 20.32% 45.05%-0.20 -4.3 19
2016-05-29 @ Aktobe W 1-057.9 1716 1601 45.05% 20.32% 34.63%+0.20 +4.3 34
2016-05-29 Irtysh L 0-154.7 1510 1591 39.29% 20.44% 40.28%-0.03 -4.8 13
2016-05-29 @ Atyrau W 1-054.7 1591 1510 40.28% 20.44% 39.29%+0.03 +4.8 30
2016-05-29 Taraz D 0-059.7 1519 1442 60.02% 18.55% 21.44%+0.77 -1.2 21
2016-05-29 @ Okzhetpes D 0-059.7 1442 1519 21.44% 18.55% 60.02%-0.77 +1.2 7
2016-05-29 Tobol W 1-047.4 1444 1489 44.42% 20.35% 35.23%+0.15 +4.4 12
2016-05-29 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-147.4 1489 1444 35.23% 20.35% 44.42%-0.15 -4.4 12
2016-05-29 Zhetysu L 0-156.7 1544 1435 63.50% 17.77% 18.73%+0.92 -7.2 20
2016-05-29 @ Ordabasy W 1-056.7 1435 1544 18.73% 17.77% 63.50%-0.92 +7.2 15
2016-06-02 Aktobe D 1-167.2 1442 1597 29.58% 19.95% 50.47%-0.40 +0.5 16
2016-06-02 @ Zhetysu D 1-167.2 1597 1442 50.47% 19.95% 29.58%+0.40 -0.5 20
2016-06-02 Akzhayik W 4-244.7 1518 1375 67.07% 16.82% 16.11%+1.10 +3.1 24
2016-06-02 @ Okzhetpes L 2-444.7 1375 1518 16.11% 16.82% 67.07%-1.10 -3.1 8
2016-06-02 Astana L 0-245.5 1443 1720 17.73% 17.44% 64.83%-1.01 -4.4 7
2016-06-02 @ Taraz W 2-045.5 1720 1443 64.83% 17.44% 17.73%+1.01 +4.4 37
2016-06-02 Atyrau W 5-249.2 1736 1505 74.85% 14.15% 11.00%+1.54 +2.8 26
2016-06-02 @ Kairat L 2-549.2 1505 1736 11.00% 14.15% 74.85%-1.54 -2.8 13
2016-06-02 Ordabasy W 1-050.9 1485 1536 43.50% 20.38% 36.12%+0.12 +4.5 15
2016-06-02 @ Tobol L 0-150.9 1536 1485 36.12% 20.38% 43.50%-0.12 -4.5 20
2016-06-02 Shakter Karagandy D 0-063.3 1596 1449 67.43% 16.71% 15.86%+1.12 -1.6 31
2016-06-02 @ Irtysh D 0-063.3 1449 1596 15.86% 16.71% 67.43%-1.12 +1.6 13
2016-06-11 Irtysh W 2-051.3 1532 1594 41.98% 20.42% 37.60%+0.07 +8.7 23
2016-06-11 @ Ordabasy L 0-251.3 1594 1532 37.60% 20.42% 41.98%-0.07 -8.7 31
2016-06-11 Kairat L 0-544.0 1450 1738 16.88% 17.12% 66.00%-1.07 -9.8 13
2016-06-11 @ Shakter Karagandy W 5-044.0 1738 1450 66.00% 17.12% 16.88%+1.07 +9.8 29
2016-06-11 Okzhetpes W 2-155.4 1502 1521 48.01% 20.15% 31.83%+0.28 +3.8 16
2016-06-11 @ Atyrau L 1-255.4 1521 1502 31.83% 20.15% 48.01%-0.28 -3.8 24
2016-06-11 Taraz W 2-150.5 1372 1439 41.24% 20.43% 38.33%+0.04 +4.4 11
2016-06-11 @ Akzhayik L 1-250.5 1439 1372 38.33% 20.43% 41.24%-0.04 -4.4 7
2016-06-11 Tobol L 0-160.6 1596 1489 63.31% 17.82% 18.87%+0.92 -7.2 20
2016-06-11 @ Aktobe W 1-060.6 1489 1596 18.87% 17.82% 63.31%-0.92 +7.2 18
2016-06-11 Zhetysu W 1-045.1 1725 1443 78.78% 12.51% 8.71%+1.79 +1.1 40
2016-06-11 @ Astana L 0-145.1 1443 1725 8.71% 12.51% 78.78%-1.79 -1.1 16
2016-06-15 Aktobe W 4-152.9 1586 1589 50.08% 19.98% 29.94%+0.36 +8.8 34
2016-06-15 @ Irtysh L 1-452.9 1589 1586 29.94% 19.98% 50.08%-0.36 -8.8 20
2016-06-15 Astana L 1-257.9 1496 1726 21.73% 18.62% 59.65%-0.77 -2.7 18
2016-06-15 @ Tobol W 2-157.9 1726 1496 59.65% 18.62% 21.73%+0.77 +2.7 43
2016-06-15 Atyrau L 0-438.8 1376 1506 32.62% 20.21% 47.17%-0.28 -14.7 11
2016-06-15 @ Akzhayik W 4-038.8 1506 1376 47.17% 20.21% 32.62%+0.28 +14.7 19
2016-06-15 Ordabasy D 2-280.9 1748 1541 72.94% 14.88% 12.18%+1.42 -1.2 30
2016-06-15 @ Kairat D 2-280.9 1541 1748 12.18% 14.88% 72.94%-1.42 +1.3 24
2016-06-15 Shakter Karagandy W 3-037.8 1517 1440 60.02% 18.55% 21.43%+0.77 +7.7 27
2016-06-15 @ Okzhetpes L 0-337.8 1440 1517 21.43% 18.55% 60.02%-0.77 -7.7 13
2016-06-15 Zhetysu L 2-360.3 1435 1441 49.64% 20.02% 30.34%+0.34 -5.2 7
2016-06-15 @ Taraz W 3-260.3 1441 1435 30.34% 20.02% 49.64%-0.34 +5.2 19
2016-06-19 Akzhayik W 3-140.9 1433 1361 59.36% 18.68% 21.96%+0.74 +4.7 16
2016-06-19 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-340.9 1361 1433 21.96% 18.68% 59.36%-0.74 -4.7 11
2016-06-19 Irtysh D 1-174.9 1728 1594 66.11% 17.09% 16.80%+1.05 -1.4 44
2016-06-19 @ Astana D 1-174.9 1594 1728 16.80% 17.09% 66.11%-1.05 +1.4 35
2016-06-19 Kairat L 2-654.8 1580 1747 28.20% 19.79% 52.02%-0.46 -9.2 20
2016-06-19 @ Aktobe W 6-254.8 1747 1580 52.02% 19.79% 28.20%+0.46 +9.1 33
2016-06-19 Okzhetpes D 2-274.0 1542 1525 52.71% 19.71% 27.58%+0.46 -0.5 25
2016-06-19 @ Ordabasy D 2-274.0 1525 1542 27.58% 19.71% 52.71%-0.46 +0.5 28
2016-06-19 Taraz W 1-042.8 1521 1429 61.61% 18.21% 20.17%+0.84 +2.7 22
2016-06-19 @ Atyrau L 0-142.8 1429 1521 20.17% 18.21% 61.61%-0.84 -2.7 7
2016-06-19 Tobol L 0-150.3 1447 1494 44.13% 20.36% 35.51%+0.14 -5.2 19
2016-06-19 @ Zhetysu W 1-050.3 1494 1447 35.51% 20.36% 44.13%-0.14 +5.2 21
2016-06-23 Astana W 1-056.4 1756 1727 54.27% 19.51% 26.22%+0.52 +3.4 36
2016-06-23 @ Kairat L 0-156.4 1727 1756 26.22% 19.51% 54.27%-0.52 -3.4 44
2016-06-24 Aktobe W 4-152.3 1526 1571 44.36% 20.35% 35.29%+0.15 +10.1 31
2016-06-24 @ Okzhetpes L 1-452.3 1571 1526 35.29% 20.35% 44.36%-0.15 -10.1 20
2016-06-24 Ordabasy L 0-143.2 1357 1541 26.17% 19.50% 54.33%-0.55 -3.4 11
2016-06-24 @ Akzhayik W 1-043.2 1541 1357 54.33% 19.50% 26.17%+0.55 +3.4 28
2016-06-25 Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.7 1523 1437 61.03% 18.34% 20.63%+0.81 -1.2 23
2016-06-25 @ Atyrau D 0-059.7 1437 1523 20.63% 18.34% 61.03%-0.81 +1.2 17
2016-06-25 Tobol W 2-044.6 1427 1499 40.57% 20.44% 39.00%+0.02 +9.0 10
2016-06-25 @ Taraz L 0-244.6 1499 1427 39.00% 20.44% 40.57%-0.02 -9.0 21
2016-06-25 Zhetysu W 3-146.1 1596 1441 68.11% 16.51% 15.38%+1.15 +3.3 38
2016-06-25 @ Irtysh L 1-346.1 1441 1596 15.38% 16.51% 68.11%-1.15 -3.3 19
2016-06-29 Tobol D 0-061.3 1522 1490 54.67% 19.46% 25.88%+0.54 -0.9 24
2016-06-29 @ Atyrau D 0-061.3 1490 1522 25.88% 19.46% 54.67%-0.54 +0.8 22
2016-07-02 Taraz L 0-150.0 1439 1436 50.92% 19.90% 29.18%+0.39 -5.9 17
2016-07-02 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-050.0 1436 1439 29.18% 19.90% 50.92%-0.39 +5.9 13
2016-07-03 Akzhayik W 1-038.2 1561 1353 72.97% 14.87% 12.16%+1.42 +1.6 23
2016-07-03 @ Aktobe L 0-138.2 1353 1561 12.16% 14.87% 72.97%-1.42 -1.6 11
2016-07-03 Atyrau W 2-155.3 1545 1521 53.56% 19.60% 26.84%+0.50 +3.3 31
2016-07-03 @ Ordabasy L 1-255.3 1521 1545 26.84% 19.60% 53.56%-0.50 -3.3 24
2016-07-03 Irtysh W 3-266.3 1491 1599 35.53% 20.36% 44.11%-0.16 +4.7 25
2016-07-03 @ Tobol L 2-366.3 1599 1491 44.11% 20.36% 35.53%+0.16 -4.7 38
2016-07-03 Kairat D 1-173.1 1438 1759 14.62% 16.16% 69.22%-1.24 +1.5 20
2016-07-03 @ Zhetysu D 1-173.1 1759 1438 69.22% 16.16% 14.62%+1.24 -1.5 37
2016-07-05 Okzhetpes W 1-049.3 1724 1536 71.22% 15.49% 13.28%+1.32 +1.7 47
2016-07-05 @ Astana L 0-149.3 1536 1724 13.28% 15.49% 71.22%-1.32 -1.7 31
2016-07-08 Astana L 1-541.2 1352 1725 11.60% 14.54% 73.86%-1.50 -4.4 11
2016-07-08 @ Akzhayik W 5-141.2 1725 1352 73.86% 14.54% 11.60%+1.50 +4.4 50
2016-07-09 Irtysh W 1-055.5 1442 1594 29.84% 19.97% 50.19%-0.39 +5.8 16
2016-07-09 @ Taraz L 0-155.5 1594 1442 50.19% 19.97% 29.84%+0.39 -5.9 38
2016-07-10 Aktobe D 1-168.5 1518 1563 44.50% 20.35% 35.15%+0.16 -0.2 25
2016-07-10 @ Atyrau D 1-168.5 1563 1518 35.15% 20.35% 44.50%-0.16 +0.2 24
2016-07-10 Ordabasy D 0-059.9 1433 1548 34.56% 20.32% 45.13%-0.20 +0.3 18
2016-07-10 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.9 1548 1433 45.13% 20.32% 34.56%+0.20 -0.3 32
2016-07-10 Tobol W 3-258.0 1758 1496 77.34% 13.14% 9.53%+1.70 +1.1 40
2016-07-10 @ Kairat L 2-358.0 1496 1758 9.53% 13.14% 77.34%-1.70 -1.1 25
2016-07-10 Zhetysu W 2-039.9 1534 1440 61.95% 18.14% 19.91%+0.85 +4.9 34
2016-07-10 @ Okzhetpes L 0-239.9 1440 1534 19.91% 18.14% 61.95%-0.85 -4.9 20
2016-07-16 Akzhayik W 2-034.4 1435 1347 61.18% 18.31% 20.51%+0.82 +5.1 23
2016-07-16 @ Zhetysu L 0-234.4 1347 1435 20.51% 18.31% 61.18%-0.82 -5.1 11
2016-07-16 Atyrau W 2-154.3 1730 1518 73.31% 14.74% 11.94%+1.44 +1.5 53
2016-07-16 @ Astana L 1-254.3 1518 1730 11.94% 14.74% 73.31%-1.44 -1.4 25
2016-07-16 Okzhetpes L 0-153.9 1494 1539 44.49% 20.35% 35.16%+0.15 -5.3 25
2016-07-16 @ Tobol W 1-053.9 1539 1494 35.16% 20.35% 44.49%-0.15 +5.3 37
2016-07-17 Kairat L 2-366.6 1588 1759 27.75% 19.73% 52.52%-0.48 -3.2 38
2016-07-17 @ Irtysh W 3-266.6 1759 1588 52.52% 19.73% 27.75%+0.48 +3.2 43
2016-07-17 Shakter Karagandy W 2-039.6 1563 1433 65.69% 17.21% 17.10%+1.03 +4.2 27
2016-07-17 @ Aktobe L 0-239.6 1433 1563 17.10% 17.21% 65.69%-1.03 -4.2 18
2016-07-17 Taraz L 0-351.4 1548 1447 62.58% 17.99% 19.43%+0.88 -19.5 32
2016-07-17 @ Ordabasy W 3-051.4 1447 1548 19.43% 17.99% 62.58%-0.88 +19.5 19
2016-07-24 Irtysh L 0-253.6 1544 1585 44.99% 20.32% 34.69%+0.17 -10.1 37
2016-07-24 @ Okzhetpes W 2-053.6 1585 1544 34.69% 20.32% 44.99%-0.17 +10.0 41
2016-07-24 Ordabasy D 0-064.3 1567 1528 55.48% 19.34% 25.18%+0.57 -0.9 28
2016-07-24 @ Aktobe D 0-064.3 1528 1567 25.18% 19.34% 55.48%-0.57 +0.9 33
2016-07-24 Taraz W 3-148.2 1762 1467 79.71% 12.10% 8.20%+1.86 +1.6 46
2016-07-24 @ Kairat L 1-348.2 1467 1762 8.20% 12.10% 79.71%-1.86 -1.7 19
2016-07-24 Tobol L 0-537.3 1342 1489 30.51% 20.04% 49.45%-0.36 -17.1 11
2016-07-24 @ Akzhayik W 5-037.3 1489 1342 49.45% 20.04% 30.51%+0.36 +17.1 28
2016-07-24 Zhetysu W 1-043.5 1516 1440 59.96% 18.56% 21.48%+0.76 +2.8 28
2016-07-24 @ Atyrau L 0-143.5 1440 1516 21.48% 18.56% 59.96%-0.76 -2.8 23
2016-08-07 Astana W 2-060.1 1429 1731 15.87% 16.72% 67.42%-1.14 +14.3 21
2016-08-07 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-260.1 1731 1429 67.42% 16.72% 15.87%+1.14 -14.3 53

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-08-12 Irtysh W 3-046.2 1717 1595 64.85% 17.43% 17.72%+0.99 +6.4 3
2016-08-12 @ Astana L 0-346.2 1595 1717 17.72% 17.43% 64.85%-0.99 -6.4 0
2016-08-13 Kairat L 1-355.4 1534 1764 21.70% 18.61% 59.69%-0.77 -4.6 0
2016-08-13 @ Okzhetpes W 3-155.4 1764 1534 59.69% 18.61% 21.70%+0.77 +4.6 3
2016-08-13 Ordabasy D 4-479.9 1566 1529 55.25% 19.37% 25.37%+0.56 -0.4 1
2016-08-13 @ Aktobe D 4-479.9 1529 1566 25.37% 19.37% 55.25%-0.56 +0.4 1
2016-08-14 Atyrau D 0-061.6 1506 1519 48.82% 20.09% 31.09%+0.31 -0.5 1
2016-08-14 @ Tobol D 0-061.6 1519 1506 31.09% 20.09% 48.82%-0.31 +0.5 1
2016-08-14 Taraz W 1-045.6 1443 1465 47.56% 20.18% 32.26%+0.27 +4.1 3
2016-08-14 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-145.6 1465 1443 32.26% 20.18% 47.56%-0.27 -4.1 0
2016-08-14 Zhetysu W 1-045.5 1325 1437 35.02% 20.34% 44.64%-0.18 +5.3 3
2016-08-14 @ Akzhayik L 0-145.5 1437 1325 44.64% 20.34% 35.02%+0.18 -5.3 0
2016-08-20 Aktobe W 3-151.9 1768 1566 72.53% 15.03% 12.44%+1.40 +2.6 6
2016-08-20 @ Kairat L 1-351.9 1566 1768 12.44% 15.03% 72.53%-1.40 -2.6 1
2016-08-20 Okzhetpes L 0-256.7 1589 1530 57.95% 18.94% 23.11%+0.68 -12.5 0
2016-08-20 @ Irtysh W 2-056.7 1530 1589 23.11% 18.94% 57.95%-0.68 +12.5 3
2016-08-21 Akzhayik L 0-150.9 1447 1330 64.34% 17.56% 18.10%+0.96 -7.3 3
2016-08-21 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-050.9 1330 1447 18.10% 17.56% 64.34%-0.96 +7.3 6
2016-08-21 Atyrau W 1-049.7 1461 1520 42.52% 20.41% 37.08%+0.08 +4.6 3
2016-08-21 @ Taraz L 0-149.7 1520 1461 37.08% 20.41% 42.52%-0.08 -4.6 1
2016-08-21 Ordabasy W 2-045.3 1723 1530 71.74% 15.31% 12.94%+1.35 +3.2 6
2016-08-21 @ Astana L 0-245.3 1530 1723 12.94% 15.31% 71.74%-1.35 -3.1 1
2016-08-21 Tobol W 2-045.1 1432 1506 40.29% 20.44% 39.28%+0.01 +9.0 3
2016-08-21 @ Zhetysu L 0-245.1 1506 1432 39.28% 20.44% 40.29%-0.01 -9.0 1
2016-08-26 Irtysh W 1-053.3 1563 1576 48.77% 20.09% 31.14%+0.31 +3.9 4
2016-08-26 @ Aktobe L 0-153.3 1576 1563 31.14% 20.09% 48.77%-0.31 -3.9 0
2016-08-26 Kairat W 2-170.9 1526 1771 20.36% 18.26% 61.38%-0.85 +6.6 4
2016-08-26 @ Ordabasy L 1-270.9 1771 1526 61.38% 18.26% 20.36%+0.85 -6.6 6
2016-08-26 Shakter Karagandy W 2-039.8 1497 1440 57.67% 18.99% 23.34%+0.66 +5.7 4
2016-08-26 @ Tobol L 0-239.8 1440 1497 23.34% 18.99% 57.67%-0.66 -5.7 3
2016-08-26 Taraz W 2-043.3 1338 1466 32.88% 20.22% 46.90%-0.27 +10.4 9
2016-08-26 @ Akzhayik L 0-243.3 1466 1338 46.90% 20.22% 32.88%+0.27 -10.4 3
2016-08-26 Zhetysu D 3-373.7 1515 1441 59.72% 18.61% 21.67%+0.75 -0.6 2
2016-08-26 @ Atyrau D 3-373.7 1441 1515 21.67% 18.61% 59.72%-0.75 +0.6 4
2016-09-10 Atyrau W 3-043.7 1434 1515 39.37% 20.44% 40.19%-0.03 +13.3 6
2016-09-10 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-343.7 1515 1434 40.19% 20.44% 39.37%+0.03 -13.3 2
2016-09-10 Kairat L 1-461.4 1726 1765 45.39% 20.31% 34.30%+0.19 -12.4 6
2016-09-10 @ Astana W 4-161.4 1765 1726 34.30% 20.31% 45.39%-0.19 +12.4 9
2016-09-10 Tobol W 1-049.2 1348 1503 29.62% 19.95% 50.43%-0.40 +5.9 12
2016-09-10 @ Akzhayik L 0-149.2 1503 1348 50.43% 19.95% 29.62%+0.40 -5.9 4
2016-09-10 Zhetysu W 3-254.4 1455 1441 52.38% 19.75% 27.88%+0.45 +3.2 6
2016-09-10 @ Taraz L 2-354.4 1441 1455 27.88% 19.75% 52.38%-0.45 -3.2 4
2016-09-11 Ordabasy L 1-265.2 1572 1533 55.56% 19.33% 25.11%+0.58 -6.0 0
2016-09-11 @ Irtysh W 2-165.2 1533 1572 25.11% 19.33% 55.56%-0.58 +6.0 7
2016-09-12 Aktobe L 0-351.5 1542 1567 47.20% 20.21% 32.59%+0.25 -15.2 3
2016-09-12 @ Okzhetpes W 3-051.5 1567 1542 32.59% 20.21% 47.20%-0.25 +15.2 7
2016-09-17 Akzhayik L 1-259.3 1501 1354 67.43% 16.71% 15.86%+1.12 -7.1 2
2016-09-17 @ Atyrau W 2-159.3 1354 1501 15.86% 16.71% 67.43%-1.12 +7.1 15
2016-09-17 Irtysh W 2-155.6 1777 1566 73.19% 14.79% 12.02%+1.44 +1.4 12
2016-09-17 @ Kairat L 1-255.6 1566 1777 12.02% 14.79% 73.19%-1.44 -1.5 0
2016-09-17 Okzhetpes W 1-049.9 1539 1527 52.13% 19.77% 28.10%+0.44 +3.6 10
2016-09-17 @ Ordabasy L 0-149.9 1527 1539 28.10% 19.77% 52.13%-0.44 -3.6 3
2016-09-18 Astana L 1-262.8 1582 1714 32.41% 20.19% 47.39%-0.28 -3.8 7
2016-09-18 @ Aktobe W 2-162.8 1714 1582 47.39% 20.19% 32.41%+0.28 +3.9 9
2016-09-18 Shakter Karagandy L 1-255.7 1438 1447 49.31% 20.05% 30.64%+0.33 -5.4 4
2016-09-18 @ Zhetysu W 2-155.7 1447 1438 30.64% 20.05% 49.31%-0.33 +5.4 9
2016-09-18 Taraz W 3-146.9 1497 1459 55.39% 19.35% 25.26%+0.57 +5.3 7
2016-09-18 @ Tobol L 1-346.9 1459 1497 25.26% 19.35% 55.39%-0.57 -5.3 6
2016-09-24 Shakter Karagandy L 1-250.4 1361 1453 37.78% 20.42% 41.80%-0.08 -4.4 15
2016-09-24 @ Akzhayik W 2-150.4 1453 1361 41.80% 20.42% 37.78%+0.08 +4.4 12
2016-09-24 Zhetysu W 3-253.6 1502 1433 59.12% 18.72% 22.15%+0.73 +2.6 10
2016-09-24 @ Tobol L 2-353.6 1433 1502 22.15% 18.72% 59.12%-0.73 -2.6 4
2016-09-25 Astana L 0-154.7 1543 1718 27.22% 19.66% 53.12%-0.50 -3.5 10
2016-09-25 @ Ordabasy W 1-054.7 1718 1543 53.12% 19.66% 27.22%+0.50 +3.5 12
2016-09-25 Irtysh L 1-454.9 1523 1565 44.88% 20.33% 34.79%+0.17 -12.3 3
2016-09-25 @ Okzhetpes W 4-154.9 1565 1523 34.79% 20.33% 44.88%-0.17 +12.3 3
2016-09-25 Kairat L 0-155.0 1578 1778 24.58% 19.23% 56.19%-0.63 -3.2 7
2016-09-25 @ Aktobe W 1-055.0 1778 1578 56.19% 19.23% 24.58%+0.63 +3.2 15
2016-09-25 Taraz W 1-044.5 1494 1453 55.73% 19.30% 24.97%+0.58 +3.2 5
2016-09-25 @ Atyrau L 0-144.5 1453 1494 24.97% 19.30% 55.73%-0.58 -3.2 6
2016-10-01 Aktobe W 5-150.5 1577 1575 50.82% 19.91% 29.27%+0.39 +11.1 6
2016-10-01 @ Irtysh L 1-550.5 1575 1577 29.27% 19.91% 50.82%-0.39 -11.1 7
2016-10-01 Akzhayik W 2-144.2 1450 1357 61.83% 18.16% 20.01%+0.85 +2.5 9
2016-10-01 @ Taraz L 1-244.2 1357 1450 20.01% 18.16% 61.83%-0.85 -2.5 15
2016-10-01 Atyrau W 4-361.0 1430 1497 41.27% 20.43% 38.30%+0.04 +4.1 7
2016-10-01 @ Zhetysu L 3-461.0 1497 1430 38.30% 20.43% 41.27%-0.04 -4.1 5
2016-10-01 Ordabasy D 1-175.9 1782 1539 75.80% 13.77% 10.42%+1.60 -1.8 16
2016-10-01 @ Kairat D 1-175.9 1539 1782 10.42% 13.77% 75.80%-1.60 +1.8 11
2016-10-01 Tobol L 2-361.7 1457 1505 44.09% 20.36% 35.55%+0.14 -4.7 12
2016-10-01 @ Shakter Karagandy W 3-261.7 1505 1457 35.55% 20.36% 44.09%-0.14 +4.7 13
2016-10-02 Okzhetpes W 3-042.4 1721 1511 73.19% 14.79% 12.02%+1.44 +4.2 15
2016-10-02 @ Astana L 0-342.4 1511 1721 12.02% 14.79% 73.19%-1.44 -4.2 3
2016-10-16 Akzhayik L 0-153.8 1509 1354 68.18% 16.48% 15.33%+1.16 -7.7 13
2016-10-16 @ Tobol W 1-053.8 1354 1509 15.33% 16.48% 68.18%-1.16 +7.6 18
2016-10-16 Astana W 2-051.8 1780 1726 57.33% 19.04% 23.62%+0.65 +5.8 19
2016-10-16 @ Kairat L 0-251.8 1726 1780 23.62% 19.04% 57.33%-0.65 -5.8 15
2016-10-16 Irtysh D 3-379.3 1541 1588 44.08% 20.36% 35.56%+0.14 -0.1 12
2016-10-16 @ Ordabasy D 3-379.3 1588 1541 35.56% 20.36% 44.08%-0.14 +0.1 7
2016-10-16 Okzhetpes D 2-274.3 1564 1507 57.71% 18.98% 23.31%+0.67 -0.7 8
2016-10-16 @ Aktobe D 2-274.3 1507 1564 23.31% 18.98% 57.71%-0.67 +0.7 4
2016-10-16 Shakter Karagandy W 2-040.7 1493 1452 55.72% 19.30% 24.98%+0.58 +6.1 8
2016-10-16 @ Atyrau L 0-240.7 1452 1493 24.98% 19.30% 55.72%-0.58 -6.1 12
2016-10-16 Taraz D 0-056.6 1434 1452 48.10% 20.14% 31.76%+0.29 -0.5 8
2016-10-16 @ Zhetysu D 0-056.6 1452 1434 31.76% 20.14% 48.10%-0.29 +0.5 10
2016-10-22 Atyrau W 3-150.9 1362 1499 31.69% 20.14% 48.17%-0.31 +9.2 21
2016-10-22 @ Akzhayik L 1-350.9 1499 1362 48.17% 20.14% 31.69%+0.31 -9.2 8
2016-10-22 Tobol W 2-154.1 1453 1502 43.91% 20.37% 35.73%+0.13 +4.2 13
2016-10-22 @ Taraz L 1-254.1 1502 1453 35.73% 20.37% 43.91%-0.13 -4.2 13
2016-10-22 Zhetysu W 4-142.3 1446 1434 52.20% 19.77% 28.04%+0.44 +8.3 15
2016-10-22 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-442.3 1434 1446 28.04% 19.77% 52.20%-0.44 -8.3 8
2016-10-23 Aktobe W 1-050.5 1720 1563 68.32% 16.44% 15.24%+1.16 +2.0 18
2016-10-23 @ Astana L 0-150.5 1563 1720 15.24% 16.44% 68.32%-1.16 -2.0 8
2016-10-23 Kairat L 1-357.3 1589 1786 24.88% 19.29% 55.83%-0.61 -5.3 7
2016-10-23 @ Irtysh W 3-157.3 1786 1589 55.83% 19.29% 24.88%+0.61 +5.3 22
2016-10-23 Ordabasy W 3-045.4 1507 1541 46.04% 20.27% 33.69%+0.21 +11.5 7
2016-10-23 @ Okzhetpes L 0-345.4 1541 1507 33.69% 20.27% 46.04%-0.21 -11.5 12
2016-10-26 Astana D 0-068.1 1519 1722 24.28% 19.18% 56.54%-0.64 +1.0 8
2016-10-26 @ Okzhetpes D 0-068.1 1722 1519 56.54% 19.18% 24.28%+0.64 -1.0 19
2016-10-29 Aktobe W 2-158.4 1529 1561 46.22% 20.26% 33.52%+0.22 +4.0 15
2016-10-29 @ Ordabasy L 1-258.4 1561 1529 33.52% 20.26% 46.22%-0.22 -4.0 8
2016-10-29 Akzhayik L 0-246.0 1425 1371 57.36% 19.04% 23.60%+0.65 -12.4 8
2016-10-29 @ Zhetysu W 2-046.0 1371 1425 23.60% 19.04% 57.36%-0.65 +12.4 24
2016-10-29 Astana D 0-068.8 1583 1721 31.69% 20.14% 48.17%-0.31 +0.5 8
2016-10-29 @ Irtysh D 0-068.8 1721 1583 48.17% 20.14% 31.69%+0.31 -0.5 20
2016-10-29 Okzhetpes W 5-042.5 1791 1520 77.97% 12.87% 9.16%+1.74 +5.1 25
2016-10-29 @ Kairat L 0-542.5 1520 1791 9.16% 12.87% 77.97%-1.74 -5.0 8
2016-10-29 Shakter Karagandy W 2-150.5 1457 1455 50.86% 19.91% 29.23%+0.39 +3.5 16
2016-10-29 @ Taraz L 1-250.5 1455 1457 29.23% 19.91% 50.86%-0.39 -3.5 15
2016-10-29 Tobol W 3-042.0 1490 1497 49.58% 20.03% 30.40%+0.34 +10.6 11
2016-10-29 @ Atyrau L 0-342.0 1497 1490 30.40% 20.03% 49.58%-0.34 -10.6 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-04-03 13.16% @ Akzhayik 1384 2 Kairat 1730 1
2 2016-10-16 15.33% Akzhayik 1354 1 @ Tobol 1509 0
3 2016-09-17 15.86% Akzhayik 1354 2 @ Atyrau 1501 1
4 2016-08-07 15.87% @ Shakter Karagandy 1429 2 Astana 1731 0
5 2016-08-21 18.10% Akzhayik 1330 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1447 0
6 2016-03-12 18.49% @ Taraz 1471 2 Kairat 1738 1
7 2016-05-29 18.73% Zhetysu 1435 1 @ Ordabasy 1544 0
8 2016-06-11 18.87% Tobol 1489 1 @ Aktobe 1596 0
9 2016-07-17 19.43% Taraz 1447 3 @ Ordabasy 1548 0
10 2016-08-26 20.36% @ Ordabasy 1526 2 Kairat 1771 1
11 2016-04-13 20.86% Akzhayik 1384 1 @ Taraz 1467 0
12 2016-05-15 22.43% @ Atyrau 1498 1 Astana 1720 0
13 2016-08-20 23.11% Okzhetpes 1530 2 @ Irtysh 1589 0
14 2016-10-29 23.60% Akzhayik 1371 2 @ Zhetysu 1425 0
15 2016-09-11 25.11% Ordabasy 1533 2 @ Irtysh 1572 1
16 2016-04-17 25.94% @ Ordabasy 1536 1 Kairat 1723 0
17 2016-07-02 29.18% Taraz 1436 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1439 0
18 2016-09-10 29.62% @ Akzhayik 1348 1 Tobol 1503 0
19 2016-07-09 29.84% @ Taraz 1442 1 Irtysh 1594 0
20 2016-05-05 30.30% Shakter Karagandy 1459 2 @ Taraz 1453 1
21 2016-06-15 30.34% Zhetysu 1441 3 @ Taraz 1435 2
22 2016-04-03 30.53% Okzhetpes 1486 3 @ Taraz 1478 1
23 2016-09-18 30.64% Shakter Karagandy 1447 2 @ Zhetysu 1438 1
24 2016-05-21 30.72% Atyrau 1504 2 @ Tobol 1495 1
25 2016-10-22 31.69% @ Akzhayik 1362 3 Atyrau 1499 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-07-17 19.45 Taraz 3 1447 19.43% @ Ordabasy 0 1548 62.58% 17.99%
2 2016-07-24 17.08 Tobol 5 1489 49.45% @ Akzhayik 0 1342 30.51% 20.04%
3 2016-09-12 15.21 Aktobe 3 1567 32.59% @ Okzhetpes 0 1542 47.20% 20.21%
4 2016-06-15 14.67 Atyrau 4 1506 47.17% @ Akzhayik 0 1376 32.62% 20.21%
5 2016-08-07 14.29 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1429 15.87% Astana 0 1731 67.42% 16.72%
6 2016-09-10 13.33 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1434 39.37% Atyrau 0 1515 40.19% 20.44%
7 2016-08-20 12.52 Okzhetpes 2 1530 23.11% @ Irtysh 0 1589 57.95% 18.94%
8 2016-09-10 12.41 Kairat 4 1765 34.30% @ Astana 1 1726 45.39% 20.31%
9 2016-10-29 12.40 Akzhayik 2 1371 23.60% @ Zhetysu 0 1425 57.36% 19.04%
10 2016-09-25 12.30 Irtysh 4 1565 34.79% @ Okzhetpes 1 1523 44.88% 20.33%
11 2016-10-23 11.54 @ Okzhetpes 3 1507 46.04% Ordabasy 0 1541 33.69% 20.27%
12 2016-05-01 11.19 Irtysh 3 1578 47.35% @ Zhetysu 0 1446 32.45% 20.20%
13 2016-10-01 11.14 @ Irtysh 5 1577 50.82% Aktobe 1 1575 29.27% 19.91%
14 2016-05-10 10.92 Okzhetpes 4 1518 40.81% @ Zhetysu 1 1433 38.76% 20.43%
15 2016-03-19 10.61 Irtysh 3 1542 49.44% @ Akzhayik 0 1395 30.52% 20.04%
16 2016-10-29 10.58 @ Atyrau 3 1490 49.58% Tobol 0 1497 30.40% 20.03%
17 2016-08-26 10.41 @ Akzhayik 2 1338 32.88% Taraz 0 1466 46.90% 20.22%
18 2016-06-24 10.12 @ Okzhetpes 4 1526 44.36% Aktobe 1 1571 35.29% 20.35%
19 2016-07-24 10.06 Irtysh 2 1585 34.69% @ Okzhetpes 0 1544 44.99% 20.32%
20 2016-06-11 9.76 Kairat 5 1738 66.00% @ Shakter Karagandy 0 1450 16.88% 17.12%
21 2016-04-03 9.67 @ Tobol 3 1494 52.86% Shakter Karagandy 0 1476 27.45% 19.69%
22 2016-04-03 9.43 Okzhetpes 3 1486 30.53% @ Taraz 1 1478 49.43% 20.04%
23 2016-10-22 9.23 @ Akzhayik 3 1362 31.69% Atyrau 1 1499 48.17% 20.14%
24 2016-06-19 9.15 Kairat 6 1747 52.02% @ Aktobe 2 1580 28.20% 19.79%
25 2016-08-21 9.01 @ Zhetysu 2 1432 40.29% Tobol 0 1506 39.28% 20.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-06-15 80.9 @ Kairat 2 1748 72.94% Ordabasy 2 1541 12.18% 14.88%
2 2016-08-13 79.9 @ Aktobe 4 1566 55.25% Ordabasy 4 1529 25.37% 19.37%
3 2016-04-23 79.3 @ Irtysh 2 1577 32.18% Astana 2 1711 47.65% 20.18%
4 2016-10-16 79.3 @ Ordabasy 3 1541 44.08% Irtysh 3 1588 35.56% 20.36%
5 2016-10-01 75.9 @ Kairat 1 1782 75.80% Ordabasy 1 1539 10.42% 13.77%
6 2016-06-19 74.9 @ Astana 1 1728 66.11% Irtysh 1 1594 16.80% 17.09%
7 2016-10-16 74.3 @ Aktobe 2 1564 57.71% Okzhetpes 2 1507 23.31% 18.98%
8 2016-05-21 74.1 @ Aktobe 2 1602 68.76% Taraz 2 1441 14.94% 16.31%
9 2016-06-19 74.0 @ Ordabasy 2 1542 52.71% Okzhetpes 2 1525 27.58% 19.71%
10 2016-08-26 73.7 @ Atyrau 3 1515 59.72% Zhetysu 3 1441 21.67% 18.61%
11 2016-04-09 73.4 @ Ordabasy 2 1543 55.57% Tobol 2 1504 25.10% 19.33%
12 2016-07-03 73.1 @ Zhetysu 1 1438 14.62% Kairat 1 1759 69.22% 16.16%
13 2016-03-19 72.9 @ Okzhetpes 1 1485 20.24% Kairat 1 1731 61.53% 18.23%
14 2016-05-05 72.7 @ Atyrau 2 1501 45.66% Ordabasy 2 1537 34.05% 20.29%
15 2016-04-17 71.5 @ Aktobe 1 1597 53.18% Irtysh 1 1577 27.17% 19.65%
16 2016-08-26 70.9 @ Ordabasy 2 1526 20.36% Kairat 1 1771 61.38% 18.26%
17 2016-03-12 70.0 @ Taraz 2 1471 18.49% Kairat 1 1738 63.81% 17.70%
18 2016-04-23 69.6 @ Tobol 2 1498 57.18% Zhetysu 2 1446 23.75% 19.07%
19 2016-04-03 69.1 @ Akzhayik 2 1384 13.16% Kairat 1 1730 71.42% 15.43%
20 2016-04-13 68.8 @ Kairat 0 1725 77.72% Shakter Karagandy 0 1458 9.31% 12.97%
21 2016-10-29 68.8 @ Irtysh 0 1583 31.69% Astana 0 1721 48.17% 20.14%
22 2016-07-10 68.5 @ Atyrau 1 1518 44.50% Aktobe 1 1563 35.15% 20.35%
23 2016-03-19 68.2 @ Taraz 1 1477 34.46% Aktobe 1 1594 45.23% 20.31%
24 2016-10-26 68.1 @ Okzhetpes 0 1519 24.28% Astana 0 1722 56.54% 19.18%
25 2016-06-02 67.2 @ Zhetysu 1 1442 29.58% Aktobe 1 1597 50.47% 19.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-07-16 34.4 @ Zhetysu 2 1435 61.18% Akzhayik 0 1347 20.51% 18.31%
2 2016-04-17 36.5 @ Atyrau 2 1495 63.09% Akzhayik 0 1390 19.04% 17.87%
3 2016-07-24 37.3 Tobol 5 1489 49.45% @ Akzhayik 0 1342 30.51% 20.04%
4 2016-06-15 37.8 @ Okzhetpes 3 1517 60.02% Shakter Karagandy 0 1440 21.43% 18.55%
5 2016-05-10 38.2 @ Astana 2 1718 82.51% Akzhayik 0 1380 6.71% 10.78%
6 2016-07-03 38.2 @ Aktobe 1 1561 72.97% Akzhayik 0 1353 12.16% 14.87%
7 2016-06-15 38.8 Atyrau 4 1506 47.17% @ Akzhayik 0 1376 32.62% 20.21%
8 2016-07-17 39.6 @ Aktobe 2 1563 65.69% Shakter Karagandy 0 1433 17.10% 17.21%
9 2016-05-01 39.7 @ Ordabasy 1 1535 68.08% Akzhayik 0 1381 15.41% 16.52%
10 2016-08-26 39.8 @ Tobol 2 1497 57.67% Shakter Karagandy 0 1440 23.34% 18.99%
11 2016-07-10 39.9 @ Okzhetpes 2 1534 61.95% Zhetysu 0 1440 19.91% 18.14%
12 2016-03-19 40.2 Irtysh 3 1542 49.44% @ Akzhayik 0 1395 30.52% 20.04%
13 2016-04-03 40.4 @ Tobol 3 1494 52.86% Shakter Karagandy 0 1476 27.45% 19.69%
14 2016-03-13 40.7 @ Tobol 1 1491 61.87% Akzhayik 0 1398 19.98% 18.16%
15 2016-10-16 40.7 @ Atyrau 2 1493 55.72% Shakter Karagandy 0 1452 24.98% 19.30%
16 2016-06-19 40.9 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1433 59.36% Akzhayik 1 1361 21.96% 18.68%
17 2016-05-05 41.0 @ Kairat 2 1719 78.95% Zhetysu 0 1435 8.62% 12.44%
18 2016-05-21 41.1 @ Zhetysu 2 1427 47.22% Shakter Karagandy 0 1452 32.58% 20.20%
19 2016-07-08 41.2 Astana 5 1725 73.86% @ Akzhayik 1 1352 11.60% 14.54%
20 2016-05-09 41.7 @ Ordabasy 2 1537 59.44% Shakter Karagandy 0 1465 21.90% 18.66%
21 2016-10-29 42.0 @ Atyrau 3 1490 49.58% Tobol 0 1497 30.40% 20.03%
22 2016-10-22 42.3 @ Shakter Karagandy 4 1446 52.20% Zhetysu 1 1434 28.04% 19.77%
23 2016-04-09 42.4 Okzhetpes 2 1496 43.48% @ Akzhayik 0 1392 36.14% 20.38%
24 2016-10-02 42.4 @ Astana 3 1721 73.19% Okzhetpes 0 1511 12.02% 14.79%
25 2016-10-29 42.5 @ Kairat 5 1791 77.97% Okzhetpes 0 1520 9.16% 12.87%