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2020 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Kairat

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Caspiy

7.87 points above expected

17 points · 9.13 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Okzhetpes

11.72 points below expected

11 points · 22.72 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kairat 20 14 3 3 45 48 19 +29 39.83 +5.17
2 Tobol 20 12 2 6 38 26 16 +10 33.63 +4.37
3 Astana 20 11 3 6 36 32 21 +11 37.59 -1.59
4 Shakter Karagandy 20 9 5 6 32 29 22 +7 27.91 +4.09
5 Ordabasy 20 9 4 7 31 27 26 +1 35.25 -4.25
6 Zhetysu 20 9 1 10 28 27 28 -1 30.76 -2.76
7 Kaisar 20 6 6 8 24 20 23 -3 29.35 -5.35
8 Taraz 20 5 8 7 23 19 23 -4 22.72 +0.28
9 Kyzylzhar 20 6 5 9 23 15 24 -9 19.69 +3.31
10 Caspiy 20 5 2 13 17 15 34 -19 9.13 +7.87
11 Okzhetpes 20 2 5 13 11 16 38 -22 22.72 -11.72

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Caspiy 17 9.13 +7.87
2 Kairat 45 39.83 +5.17
3 Tobol 38 33.63 +4.37
4 Shakter Karagandy 32 27.91 +4.09
5 Kyzylzhar 23 19.69 +3.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Okzhetpes 11 22.72 -11.72
2 Kaisar 24 29.35 -5.35
3 Ordabasy 31 35.25 -4.25
4 Zhetysu 28 30.76 -2.76
5 Astana 36 37.59 -1.59

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Caspiy 2 Nov 21 – Nov 24 1 in 40
2 Tobol 5 Oct 30 – Nov 27 1 in 30
3 Kairat 6 Jul 1 – Sep 21 1 in 28
4 Shakter Karagandy 3 Nov 4 – Nov 21 1 in 17
5 Zhetysu 4 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kairat 2 Nov 21 – Nov 30 1 in 92
2 Kaisar 3 Oct 26 – Nov 3 1 in 48
3 Astana 3 Oct 30 – Nov 21 1 in 42
4 Okzhetpes 5 Mar 7 – Aug 22 1 in 32
5 Ordabasy 3 Oct 30 – Nov 21 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Caspiy 4 Oct 30 – Nov 24 1 in 86
2 Kairat 15 Jul 1 – Nov 7 1 in 44
3 Kyzylzhar 4 Oct 21 – Nov 4 1 in 12
4 Taraz 4 Sep 23 – Oct 17 1 in 12
5 Okzhetpes 3 Sep 27 – Oct 17 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kairat 3 Nov 7 – Nov 30 1 in 40
2 Kaisar 6 Sep 12 – Oct 17 1 in 21
3 Okzhetpes 7 Oct 26 – Nov 30 1 in 18
4 Ordabasy 4 Oct 30 – Nov 24 1 in 14
5 Taraz 6 Jul 1 – Sep 19 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Kairat 1746 45 -13 7 10.4 -3.4
Tobol 1649 38 +26 12 9.6 +2.4
Astana 1673 36 -9 9 9.3 -0.3
Shakter Karagandy 1579 32 +39 12 7.3 +4.7
Ordabasy 1609 31 -57 4 8.3 -4.3
Zhetysu 1581 28 +3 9 8.5 +0.5
Kaisar 1542 24 -3 4 5.4 -1.4
Kyzylzhar 1459 23 +16 7 3.8 +3.2
Taraz 1490 23 -8 6 5.8 +0.2
Caspiy 1265 17 +9 7 3.2 +3.8
Okzhetpes 1436 11 -39 0 5.9 -5.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AST CAS KAI KAI KYZ OKZ ORD SK TAR TOB ZHE
Astana —
1-0-1
5.19
0-0-2
2.40
2-0-0
3.61
2-0-0
4.27
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
3.17
0-1-1
3.74
0-1-1
4.15
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.37
Caspiy
1-0-1
0.56
—
0-0-2
0.54
2-0-0
0.88
0-1-1
1.45
1-1-0
1.29
0-0-2
0.66
0-0-2
1.01
1-0-1
1.24
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.84
Kairat
2-0-0
3.18
2-0-0
5.21
—
1-1-0
4.16
1-0-1
4.68
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.51
0-1-1
3.92
1-0-1
4.30
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.49
Kaisar
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
4.80
0-1-1
1.46
—
0-1-1
3.69
1-1-0
3.26
1-1-0
2.07
2-0-0
2.84
0-2-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.62
Kyzylzhar
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
4.17
1-0-1
0.99
1-1-0
1.90
—
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
1.52
0-1-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.33
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
1.70
Okzhetpes
0-0-2
1.45
0-1-1
4.34
0-1-1
1.53
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
3.24
—
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
1.66
0-0-2
1.94
Ordabasy
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
5.07
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
3.51
1-1-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.79
—
1-0-1
3.53
0-1-1
3.96
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.14
Shakter Karagandy
1-1-0
1.85
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
1.69
0-0-2
2.73
1-1-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.05
—
1-1-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.14
0-0-2
2.51
Taraz
1-1-0
1.46
1-0-1
4.40
1-0-1
1.33
0-2-0
2.29
0-1-1
3.25
0-1-1
2.91
1-1-0
1.65
0-1-1
2.38
—
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
1.97
Tobol
1-0-1
2.29
2-0-0
4.97
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
3.40
2-0-0
4.15
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
3.45
1-1-0
3.84
—
1-1-0
2.78
Zhetysu
0-0-2
2.22
2-0-0
4.84
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.90
2-0-0
3.65
0-0-2
2.44
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.62
0-1-1
2.79
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +8.9
Allowed 0.72 -12.9
Differential 0.96 +6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.27%12.73%5.00%4.09%1.82%0.45%31.36%
112.73%9.09%6.36%5.45%—0.45%34.09%
25.00%6.36%2.73%2.73%0.91%—17.73%
34.09%5.45%2.73%0.91%——13.18%
41.82%—0.91%———2.73%
5+0.45%0.45%————0.91%
Total31.36%34.09%17.73%13.18%2.73%0.91%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.25 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.75
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
115.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%——40.00%
25.00%10.00%————15.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%———15.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total30.00%45.00%15.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.05 +0.55
SD 1.39 0.94 1.90
CV 0.87 0.90 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%—45.00%
115.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%——35.00%
2—10.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total15.00%30.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.70 -0.95
SD 0.79 1.13 1.50
CV 1.05 0.66 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%————10.00%
110.00%5.00%————15.00%
2—10.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
315.00%20.00%—5.00%——40.00%
45.00%—5.00%———10.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total35.00%45.00%10.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 0.95 +1.45
SD 1.31 0.94 1.67
CV 0.55 0.99 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%15.00%—5.00%——30.00%
115.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%——45.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%———20.00%
35.00%—————5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.15 -0.15
SD 0.86 1.09 1.42
CV 0.86 0.95 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%—55.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%——25.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
3—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.20 -0.45
SD 1.02 1.15 1.50
CV 1.36 0.96 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%25.00%10.00%——5.00%50.00%
1—5.00%10.00%10.00%—5.00%30.00%
2—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
3——5.00%5.00%——10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%35.00%30.00%15.00%—10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.80 1.90 -1.10
SD 1.01 1.37 1.48
CV 1.26 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%—10.00%——20.00%
120.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%——50.00%
2—5.00%—5.00%——10.00%
3—10.00%5.00%———15.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%35.00%10.00%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.30 +0.05
SD 1.14 1.17 1.76
CV 0.84 0.90 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%5.00%———20.00%
115.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%——45.00%
2—10.00%—5.00%——15.00%
3—10.00%————10.00%
45.00%—5.00%———10.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%15.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.10 +0.35
SD 1.23 0.91 1.50
CV 0.85 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%10.00%10.00%———35.00%
115.00%20.00%5.00%———40.00%
25.00%—5.00%5.00%5.00%—20.00%
3——5.00%———5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.00%30.00%25.00%5.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.15 -0.20
SD 0.89 1.14 1.11
CV 0.93 0.99 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%——10.00%—30.00%
115.00%—5.00%5.00%——25.00%
230.00%—————30.00%
310.00%5.00%————15.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total65.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 0.80 +0.50
SD 1.08 1.36 2.09
CV 0.83 1.70 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%5.00%10.00%——30.00%
110.00%—10.00%5.00%——25.00%
210.00%5.00%—5.00%5.00%—25.00%
310.00%5.00%5.00%———20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.40 -0.05
SD 1.14 1.31 1.90
CV 0.84 0.94 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kairat 1746 45 39.83 +5.17 85.0% 23 32 36 41 44 49 53
Astana 1673 36 37.59 -1.59 41.0% 24 29 34 38 41 46 49
Tobol 1649 38 33.63 +4.37 77.0% 21 25 29 33 38 42 47
Ordabasy 1609 31 35.25 -4.25 26.0% 18 25 31 35 40 44 50
Zhetysu 1581 28 30.76 -2.76 33.0% 18 21 28 30 34 39 45
Shakter Karagandy 1579 32 27.91 +4.09 80.0% 16 19 23 28 32 37 40
Kaisar 1542 24 29.35 -5.35 24.0% 15 18 25 29 33 43 45
Taraz 1490 23 22.72 +0.28 55.0% 10 14 19 23 27 32 37
Kyzylzhar 1459 23 19.69 +3.31 70.0% 5 9 15 20 24 29 35
Okzhetpes 1436 11 22.72 -11.72 1.0% 11 13 18 22 27 33 35
Caspiy 1265 17 9.13 +7.87 94.0% 1 2 5 9 12 18 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.27%
No Edge
43.64%20.00%36.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 25.31 Elo pts.
278 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.15 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Kairat, 1st of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.35/gm
Runaway
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.6 * Some Luck: 4.6 to 6.9 * Lucky: 6.9 to 9.2 * Wild Swing: 9.2 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.13 * Close: 1.13 to 1.69 * Off: 1.69 to 2.26 * Way Off: 2.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.47 points
Some Luck
05.7514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.36
Close
01.413
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
94.00%
Caspiy
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
1.00%
Okzhetpes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Even
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 132.27
1.61
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
71%
Slight Edge
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Some Drama
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Slight Separation
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.80
Near-Lock
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.90
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Kairat47.00%15.00%17.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%———
Tobol5.00%17.00%16.00%21.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%——
Astana26.00%21.00%24.00%11.00%7.00%8.00%3.00%————
Shakter Karagandy—7.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%15.00%19.00%12.00%10.00%5.00%—
Ordabasy15.00%25.00%13.00%16.00%13.00%9.00%2.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Zhetysu3.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%23.00%23.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%—
Kaisar4.00%6.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%15.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%4.00%—
Taraz—1.00%1.00%4.00%3.00%7.00%13.00%27.00%24.00%18.00%2.00%
Kyzylzhar—1.00%—1.00%4.00%4.00%9.00%18.00%21.00%34.00%8.00%
Caspiy————————5.00%8.00%87.00%
Okzhetpes——1.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%18.00%8.00%24.00%28.00%3.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Astana 100% —
Kairat 100% —
Kaisar 100% —
Ordabasy 100% —
Shakter Karagandy 100% —
Tobol 100% —
Zhetysu 100% —
Taraz 98.00% 2.00%
Okzhetpes 97.00% 3.00%
Kyzylzhar 92.00% 8.00%
Caspiy 13.00% 87.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-03-07 Kyzylzhar W 4-041.2 1676 1458 67.86% 18.13% 14.01%+0.88 +11.1 3
2020-03-07 @ Astana L 0-441.2 1458 1676 14.01% 18.13% 67.86%-0.88 -11.1 0
2020-03-07 Okzhetpes W 1-051.9 1641 1537 56.32% 20.28% 23.39%+0.46 +5.1 3
2020-03-07 @ Ordabasy L 0-151.9 1537 1641 23.39% 20.28% 56.32%-0.46 -5.1 0
2020-03-07 Shakter Karagandy W 3-154.8 1617 1542 52.83% 20.65% 26.53%+0.36 +9.3 3
2020-03-07 @ Tobol L 1-354.8 1542 1617 26.53% 20.65% 52.83%-0.36 -9.3 0
2020-03-07 Taraz W 2-155.5 1650 1495 61.93% 19.44% 18.63%+0.65 +3.9 3
2020-03-07 @ Kairat L 1-255.5 1495 1650 18.63% 19.44% 61.93%-0.65 -3.9 0
2020-03-08 Zhetysu L 0-231.5 1240 1621 8.33% 15.32% 76.35%-1.28 -3.4 0
2020-03-08 @ Caspiy W 2-031.5 1621 1240 76.35% 15.32% 8.33%+1.28 +3.4 3
2020-03-11 Okzhetpes W 5-046.3 1654 1532 58.39% 20.01% 21.60%+0.53 +20.8 6
2020-03-11 @ Kairat L 0-546.3 1532 1654 21.60% 20.01% 58.39%-0.53 -20.8 0
2020-03-11 Ordabasy D 1-174.0 1687 1646 48.57% 20.96% 30.47%+0.24 -0.8 4
2020-03-11 @ Astana D 1-174.0 1646 1687 30.47% 20.96% 48.57%-0.24 +0.8 4
2020-03-14 Tobol D 0-067.6 1625 1626 42.83% 21.18% 35.99%+0.09 -0.3 4
2020-03-14 @ Zhetysu D 0-067.6 1626 1625 35.99% 21.18% 42.83%-0.09 +0.3 4
2020-03-15 Astana L 2-347.3 1237 1686 6.02% 13.49% 80.49%-1.53 -1.1 0
2020-03-15 @ Caspiy W 3-247.3 1686 1237 80.49% 13.49% 6.02%+1.53 +1.1 7
2020-03-15 Kairat W 1-062.1 1533 1675 24.66% 20.44% 54.89%-0.42 +10.4 3
2020-03-15 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-162.1 1675 1533 54.89% 20.44% 24.66%+0.42 -10.4 6
2020-03-15 Kaisar L 0-152.8 1511 1552 37.26% 21.20% 41.54%-0.05 -7.5 0
2020-03-15 @ Okzhetpes W 1-052.8 1552 1511 41.54% 21.20% 37.26%+0.05 +7.5 3
2020-03-15 Ordabasy W 3-272.0 1491 1647 23.26% 20.26% 56.48%-0.47 +9.6 3
2020-03-15 @ Taraz L 2-372.0 1647 1491 56.48% 20.26% 23.26%+0.47 -9.6 4
2020-07-01 Caspiy W 2-030.4 1626 1236 80.02% 13.71% 6.27%+1.50 +2.5 7
2020-07-01 @ Tobol L 0-230.4 1236 1626 6.27% 13.71% 80.02%-1.50 -2.5 0
2020-07-01 Okzhetpes W 3-153.0 1447 1504 34.92% 21.15% 43.93%-0.12 +14.0 3
2020-07-01 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-353.0 1504 1447 43.93% 21.15% 34.92%+0.12 -14.0 0
2020-07-01 Shakter Karagandy L 0-161.6 1637 1543 55.18% 20.41% 24.41%+0.43 -10.5 4
2020-07-01 @ Ordabasy W 1-061.6 1543 1637 24.41% 20.41% 55.18%-0.43 +10.5 6
2020-07-01 Taraz D 1-167.7 1559 1501 50.85% 20.81% 28.34%+0.30 -1.0 4
2020-07-01 @ Kaisar D 1-167.7 1501 1559 28.34% 20.81% 50.85%-0.30 +1.0 4
2020-07-01 Zhetysu W 3-050.5 1664 1624 48.47% 20.96% 30.57%+0.24 +17.5 9
2020-07-01 @ Kairat L 0-350.5 1624 1664 30.57% 20.96% 48.47%-0.24 -17.5 4
2020-08-18 Kairat L 0-329.9 1233 1682 6.04% 13.50% 80.46%-1.53 -3.5 0
2020-08-18 @ Caspiy W 3-029.9 1682 1233 80.46% 13.50% 6.04%+1.53 +3.5 12
2020-08-18 Kyzylzhar D 0-059.0 1502 1461 48.60% 20.96% 30.45%+0.24 -0.9 5
2020-08-18 @ Taraz D 0-059.0 1461 1502 30.45% 20.96% 48.60%-0.24 +0.9 4
2020-08-18 Ordabasy L 2-369.7 1607 1627 40.17% 21.21% 38.62%+0.02 -7.2 4
2020-08-18 @ Zhetysu W 3-269.7 1627 1607 38.62% 21.21% 40.17%-0.02 +7.1 7
2020-08-19 Kaisar L 0-156.0 1554 1558 42.37% 21.18% 36.45%+0.08 -8.3 6
2020-08-19 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-056.0 1558 1554 36.45% 21.18% 42.37%-0.08 +8.4 7
2020-08-21 Caspiy W 1-034.0 1634 1230 80.78% 13.35% 5.87%+1.55 +1.2 10
2020-08-21 @ Ordabasy L 0-134.0 1230 1634 5.87% 13.35% 80.78%-1.55 -1.2 0
2020-08-21 Tobol W 3-158.4 1686 1629 50.64% 20.82% 28.53%+0.30 +9.9 15
2020-08-21 @ Kairat L 1-358.4 1629 1686 28.53% 20.82% 50.64%-0.30 -9.9 7
2020-08-22 Okzhetpes W 2-045.1 1687 1490 66.02% 18.59% 15.39%+0.80 +6.5 10
2020-08-22 @ Astana L 0-245.1 1490 1687 15.39% 18.59% 66.02%-0.80 -6.4 0
2020-08-22 Shakter Karagandy L 1-351.3 1461 1545 31.41% 21.01% 47.58%-0.21 -10.7 4
2020-08-22 @ Kyzylzhar W 3-151.3 1545 1461 47.58% 21.01% 31.41%+0.21 +10.7 9
2020-08-22 Zhetysu W 1-057.0 1567 1600 38.30% 21.21% 40.49%-0.03 +8.0 10
2020-08-22 @ Kaisar L 0-157.0 1600 1567 40.49% 21.21% 38.30%+0.03 -8.0 4
2020-08-25 Astana W 2-057.6 1619 1694 32.57% 21.07% 46.36%-0.18 +17.0 10
2020-08-25 @ Tobol L 0-257.6 1694 1619 46.36% 21.07% 32.57%+0.18 -17.0 10
2020-08-26 Kaisar W 1-053.8 1229 1575 9.80% 16.24% 73.96%-1.16 +13.6 3
2020-08-26 @ Caspiy L 0-153.8 1575 1229 73.96% 16.24% 9.80%+1.16 -13.6 10
2020-08-26 Okzhetpes L 2-363.6 1501 1483 45.42% 21.10% 33.48%+0.15 -7.9 5
2020-08-26 @ Taraz W 3-263.6 1483 1501 33.48% 21.10% 45.42%-0.15 +7.9 3
2020-08-27 Kyzylzhar W 3-040.5 1592 1451 60.44% 19.70% 19.86%+0.60 +12.0 7
2020-08-27 @ Zhetysu L 0-340.5 1451 1592 19.86% 19.70% 60.44%-0.60 -12.0 4
2020-08-29 Shakter Karagandy D 1-167.2 1491 1556 33.90% 21.12% 44.98%-0.14 +0.5 4
2020-08-29 @ Okzhetpes D 1-167.2 1556 1491 44.98% 21.12% 33.90%+0.14 -0.5 10
2020-08-29 Tobol W 2-165.6 1561 1636 32.63% 21.07% 46.30%-0.18 +8.5 13
2020-08-29 @ Kaisar L 1-265.6 1636 1561 46.30% 21.07% 32.63%+0.18 -8.5 10
2020-08-30 Caspiy W 1-034.9 1439 1242 65.93% 18.61% 15.46%+0.80 +3.4 7
2020-08-30 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-134.9 1242 1439 15.46% 18.61% 65.93%-0.80 -3.4 3
2020-08-30 Kairat L 1-360.4 1635 1695 34.52% 21.14% 44.34%-0.13 -11.6 10
2020-08-30 @ Ordabasy W 3-160.4 1695 1635 44.34% 21.14% 34.52%+0.13 +11.6 18
2020-08-30 Taraz D 1-171.7 1677 1493 64.75% 18.88% 16.37%+0.75 -2.2 11
2020-08-30 @ Astana D 1-171.7 1493 1677 16.37% 18.88% 64.75%-0.75 +2.2 6
2020-09-11 Okzhetpes W 1-049.2 1604 1492 57.27% 20.16% 22.57%+0.49 +4.9 10
2020-09-11 @ Zhetysu L 0-149.2 1492 1604 22.57% 20.16% 57.27%-0.49 -4.9 4
2020-09-11 Taraz D 1-167.4 1556 1495 51.11% 20.79% 28.10%+0.31 -1.0 11
2020-09-11 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-167.4 1495 1556 28.10% 20.79% 51.11%-0.31 +1.0 7
2020-09-12 Astana L 1-264.3 1623 1675 35.77% 21.17% 43.06%-0.09 -6.9 10
2020-09-12 @ Ordabasy W 2-164.3 1675 1623 43.06% 21.17% 35.77%+0.09 +6.9 14
2020-09-12 Kaisar W 2-158.9 1707 1570 60.08% 19.76% 20.17%+0.59 +4.2 21
2020-09-12 @ Kairat L 1-258.9 1570 1707 20.17% 19.76% 60.08%-0.59 -4.2 13
2020-09-12 Kyzylzhar W 2-042.2 1627 1442 64.86% 18.85% 16.29%+0.76 +6.8 13
2020-09-12 @ Tobol L 0-242.2 1442 1627 16.29% 18.85% 64.86%-0.76 -6.8 7
2020-09-16 Ordabasy L 0-454.3 1634 1617 45.41% 21.10% 33.49%+0.15 -31.6 13
2020-09-16 @ Tobol W 4-054.3 1617 1634 33.49% 21.10% 45.41%-0.15 +31.6 13
2020-09-18 Caspiy D 2-264.9 1487 1239 70.36% 17.43% 12.21%+0.98 -2.0 5
2020-09-18 @ Okzhetpes D 2-264.9 1239 1487 12.21% 17.43% 70.36%-0.98 +2.0 4
2020-09-19 Zhetysu L 0-247.5 1496 1608 27.97% 20.78% 51.25%-0.31 -11.2 7
2020-09-19 @ Taraz W 2-047.5 1608 1496 51.25% 20.78% 27.97%+0.31 +11.2 13
2020-09-20 Ordabasy D 1-172.1 1565 1648 31.57% 21.02% 47.41%-0.21 +0.7 14
2020-09-20 @ Kaisar D 1-172.1 1648 1565 47.41% 21.02% 31.57%+0.21 -0.7 14
2020-09-20 Shakter Karagandy D 1-172.9 1681 1555 58.93% 19.93% 21.14%+0.55 -1.7 15
2020-09-20 @ Astana D 1-172.9 1555 1681 21.14% 19.93% 58.93%-0.55 +1.7 12
2020-09-21 Kairat L 0-147.4 1435 1711 13.57% 17.97% 68.46%-0.90 -3.0 7
2020-09-21 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-047.4 1711 1435 68.46% 17.97% 13.57%+0.90 +3.0 24
2020-09-22 Okzhetpes W 1-048.8 1602 1485 57.92% 20.08% 22.01%+0.51 +4.8 16
2020-09-22 @ Tobol L 0-148.8 1485 1602 22.01% 20.08% 57.92%-0.51 -4.8 5
2020-09-23 Taraz L 0-231.7 1241 1485 15.67% 18.68% 65.65%-0.79 -6.6 4
2020-09-23 @ Caspiy W 2-031.7 1485 1241 65.65% 18.68% 15.67%+0.79 +6.6 10
2020-09-24 Astana L 0-154.8 1566 1680 27.80% 20.77% 51.43%-0.32 -5.9 14
2020-09-24 @ Kaisar W 1-054.8 1680 1566 51.43% 20.77% 27.80%+0.32 +5.9 18
2020-09-24 Kyzylzhar W 1-045.6 1648 1432 67.60% 18.20% 14.20%+0.87 +3.2 17
2020-09-24 @ Ordabasy L 0-145.6 1432 1648 14.20% 18.20% 67.60%-0.87 -3.1 7
2020-09-24 Shakter Karagandy W 3-264.6 1620 1556 51.45% 20.76% 27.79%+0.32 +5.3 16
2020-09-24 @ Zhetysu L 2-364.6 1556 1620 27.79% 20.76% 51.45%-0.32 -5.3 12
2020-09-26 Tobol D 0-064.0 1491 1607 27.57% 20.75% 51.68%-0.33 +1.2 11
2020-09-26 @ Taraz D 0-064.0 1607 1491 51.68% 20.75% 27.57%+0.33 -1.2 17
2020-09-27 Kairat D 3-382.1 1480 1714 16.40% 18.89% 64.72%-0.75 +1.3 6
2020-09-27 @ Okzhetpes D 3-382.1 1714 1480 64.72% 18.89% 16.40%+0.75 -1.4 25
2020-09-27 Zhetysu W 3-050.0 1686 1625 51.13% 20.79% 28.08%+0.31 +16.3 21
2020-09-27 @ Astana L 0-350.0 1625 1686 28.08% 20.79% 51.13%-0.31 -16.3 16
2020-09-28 Caspiy W 2-139.8 1551 1234 75.45% 15.68% 8.87%+1.23 +1.8 15
2020-09-28 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-239.8 1234 1551 8.87% 15.68% 75.45%-1.23 -1.8 4
2020-09-28 Kaisar D 0-060.1 1429 1560 25.86% 20.58% 53.56%-0.38 +1.3 8
2020-09-28 @ Kyzylzhar D 0-060.1 1560 1429 53.56% 20.58% 25.86%+0.38 -1.3 15
2020-10-01 Caspiy L 1-265.4 1702 1232 84.11% 11.62% 4.27%+1.78 -14.0 21
2020-10-01 @ Astana W 2-165.4 1232 1702 4.27% 11.62% 84.11%-1.78 +14.0 7
2020-10-01 Shakter Karagandy D 1-173.6 1713 1553 62.40% 19.35% 18.25%+0.67 -2.0 26
2020-10-01 @ Kairat D 1-173.6 1553 1713 18.25% 19.35% 62.40%-0.67 +2.0 16
2020-10-02 Okzhetpes D 0-062.0 1559 1481 53.21% 20.61% 26.18%+0.37 -1.3 16
2020-10-02 @ Kaisar D 0-062.0 1481 1559 26.18% 20.61% 53.21%-0.37 +1.3 7
2020-10-02 Taraz D 1-170.9 1651 1493 62.23% 19.39% 18.39%+0.66 -2.0 18
2020-10-02 @ Ordabasy D 1-170.9 1493 1651 18.39% 19.39% 62.23%-0.66 +2.0 12
2020-10-02 Zhetysu W 2-053.0 1606 1609 42.63% 21.18% 36.19%+0.08 +13.9 20
2020-10-02 @ Tobol L 0-253.0 1609 1606 36.19% 21.18% 42.63%-0.08 -13.9 16
2020-10-04 Astana W 3-052.3 1711 1688 46.14% 21.08% 32.78%+0.17 +18.6 29
2020-10-04 @ Kairat L 0-352.3 1688 1711 32.78% 21.08% 46.14%-0.17 -18.6 21
2020-10-17 Kaisar D 2-273.5 1495 1557 34.17% 21.13% 44.70%-0.14 +0.3 13
2020-10-17 @ Taraz D 2-273.5 1557 1495 44.70% 21.13% 34.17%+0.14 -0.3 17
2020-10-17 Kyzylzhar W 2-151.0 1483 1431 50.03% 20.87% 29.10%+0.28 +5.8 10
2020-10-17 @ Okzhetpes L 1-251.0 1431 1483 29.10% 20.87% 50.03%-0.28 -5.8 8
2020-10-18 Kairat L 2-461.1 1595 1729 25.45% 20.54% 54.01%-0.39 -8.0 16
2020-10-18 @ Zhetysu W 4-261.1 1729 1595 54.01% 20.54% 25.45%+0.39 +8.0 32
2020-10-18 Ordabasy L 0-154.8 1555 1649 30.19% 20.94% 48.87%-0.25 -6.3 16
2020-10-18 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-054.8 1649 1555 48.87% 20.94% 30.19%+0.25 +6.3 21
2020-10-18 Tobol L 0-135.6 1246 1620 8.63% 15.52% 75.86%-1.25 -1.9 7
2020-10-18 @ Caspiy W 1-035.6 1620 1246 75.86% 15.52% 8.63%+1.25 +1.9 23
2020-10-21 Taraz W 1-050.1 1425 1495 33.21% 21.09% 45.70%-0.16 +8.9 11
2020-10-21 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-150.1 1495 1425 45.70% 21.09% 33.21%+0.16 -8.9 13
2020-10-22 Caspiy W 3-139.1 1737 1245 85.16% 11.03% 3.81%+1.87 +1.2 35
2020-10-22 @ Kairat L 1-339.1 1245 1737 3.81% 11.03% 85.16%-1.87 -1.2 7
2020-10-22 Shakter Karagandy W 2-049.7 1557 1549 44.19% 21.14% 34.67%+0.12 +13.4 20
2020-10-22 @ Kaisar L 0-249.7 1549 1557 34.67% 21.14% 44.19%-0.12 -13.4 16
2020-10-22 Tobol W 1-056.1 1669 1622 49.44% 20.91% 29.65%+0.26 +6.2 24
2020-10-22 @ Astana L 0-156.1 1622 1669 29.65% 20.91% 49.44%-0.26 -6.2 23
2020-10-22 Zhetysu W 3-156.8 1655 1587 52.09% 20.71% 27.20%+0.34 +9.5 24
2020-10-22 @ Ordabasy L 1-356.8 1587 1655 27.20% 20.71% 52.09%-0.34 -9.5 16
2020-10-26 Astana L 1-548.1 1488 1676 20.24% 19.77% 59.99%-0.58 -13.3 10
2020-10-26 @ Okzhetpes W 5-148.1 1676 1488 59.99% 19.77% 20.24%+0.58 +13.3 27
2020-10-26 Kairat L 0-449.9 1616 1739 26.73% 20.67% 52.60%-0.35 -20.5 23
2020-10-26 @ Tobol W 4-049.9 1739 1616 52.60% 20.67% 26.73%+0.35 +20.4 38
2020-10-26 Kaisar W 3-157.1 1577 1571 43.93% 21.15% 34.92%+0.12 +11.7 19
2020-10-26 @ Zhetysu L 1-357.1 1571 1577 34.92% 21.15% 43.93%-0.12 -11.7 20
2020-10-26 Ordabasy L 1-242.1 1243 1665 6.89% 14.24% 78.87%-1.43 -1.4 7
2020-10-26 @ Caspiy W 2-142.1 1665 1243 78.87% 14.24% 6.89%+1.43 +1.4 27
2020-10-27 Kyzylzhar D 0-059.4 1535 1434 56.09% 20.31% 23.60%+0.46 -1.6 17
2020-10-27 @ Shakter Karagandy D 0-059.4 1434 1535 23.60% 20.31% 56.09%-0.46 +1.6 12
2020-10-30 Caspiy L 0-154.0 1559 1242 75.46% 15.68% 8.87%+1.23 -13.8 20
2020-10-30 @ Kaisar W 1-054.0 1242 1559 8.87% 15.68% 75.46%-1.23 +13.8 10
2020-10-30 Kairat L 0-158.6 1689 1759 33.21% 21.09% 45.70%-0.16 -6.9 27
2020-10-30 @ Astana W 1-058.6 1759 1689 45.70% 21.09% 33.21%+0.16 +6.9 41
2020-10-30 Tobol L 0-356.5 1666 1595 52.40% 20.69% 26.91%+0.35 -27.4 27
2020-10-30 @ Ordabasy W 3-056.5 1595 1666 26.91% 20.69% 52.40%-0.35 +27.4 26
2020-10-31 Taraz D 0-058.9 1475 1486 41.46% 21.20% 37.34%+0.05 -0.2 11
2020-10-31 @ Okzhetpes D 0-058.9 1486 1475 37.34% 21.20% 41.46%-0.05 +0.2 14
2020-10-31 Zhetysu W 2-163.0 1435 1589 23.44% 20.29% 56.27%-0.46 +10.0 15
2020-10-31 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-263.0 1589 1435 56.27% 20.29% 23.44%+0.46 -10.0 19
2020-11-03 Kaisar W 3-046.7 1622 1545 53.21% 20.61% 26.18%+0.37 +15.4 29
2020-11-03 @ Tobol L 0-346.7 1545 1622 26.18% 20.61% 53.21%-0.37 -15.4 20
2020-11-03 Ordabasy W 3-156.7 1766 1639 59.00% 19.92% 21.08%+0.55 +7.5 44
2020-11-03 @ Kairat L 1-356.7 1639 1766 21.08% 19.92% 59.00%-0.55 -7.5 27
2020-11-04 Astana W 1-062.7 1486 1682 19.48% 19.62% 60.90%-0.61 +11.5 17
2020-11-04 @ Taraz L 0-162.7 1682 1486 60.90% 19.62% 19.48%+0.61 -11.5 27
2020-11-04 Kyzylzhar D 1-157.8 1256 1445 20.03% 19.73% 60.24%-0.59 +1.8 11
2020-11-04 @ Caspiy D 1-157.8 1445 1256 60.24% 19.73% 20.03%+0.59 -1.8 16
2020-11-04 Okzhetpes W 2-154.2 1534 1475 50.86% 20.81% 28.33%+0.30 +5.7 20
2020-11-04 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-254.2 1475 1534 28.33% 20.81% 50.86%-0.30 -5.7 11
2020-11-07 Kairat D 2-280.4 1530 1773 15.70% 18.68% 65.62%-0.79 +1.7 21
2020-11-07 @ Kaisar D 2-280.4 1773 1530 65.62% 18.68% 15.70%+0.79 -1.7 45
2020-11-08 Shakter Karagandy L 2-457.7 1498 1539 37.09% 21.19% 41.72%-0.06 -11.0 17
2020-11-08 @ Taraz W 4-257.7 1539 1498 41.72% 21.19% 37.09%+0.06 +11.0 23
2020-11-08 Tobol L 0-147.7 1443 1638 19.60% 19.65% 60.75%-0.61 -4.3 16
2020-11-08 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-047.7 1638 1443 60.75% 19.65% 19.60%+0.61 +4.3 32
2020-11-08 Zhetysu L 0-149.5 1469 1579 28.29% 20.81% 50.90%-0.30 -6.0 11
2020-11-08 @ Okzhetpes W 1-049.5 1579 1469 50.90% 20.81% 28.29%+0.30 +6.0 22
2020-11-21 Astana W 3-164.0 1550 1671 27.04% 20.70% 52.26%-0.34 +16.3 26
2020-11-21 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-364.0 1671 1550 52.26% 20.70% 27.04%+0.34 -16.3 27
2020-11-21 Kaisar L 0-355.4 1631 1531 55.87% 20.34% 23.80%+0.45 -29.0 27
2020-11-21 @ Ordabasy W 3-055.4 1531 1631 23.80% 20.34% 55.87%-0.45 +29.0 24
2020-11-21 Kyzylzhar L 2-378.3 1772 1439 76.50% 15.26% 8.24%+1.29 -12.5 45
2020-11-21 @ Kairat W 3-278.3 1439 1772 8.24% 15.26% 76.50%-1.29 +12.5 19
2020-11-21 Okzhetpes W 2-155.7 1258 1463 18.63% 19.44% 61.93%-0.65 +11.0 14
2020-11-21 @ Caspiy L 1-255.7 1463 1258 61.93% 19.44% 18.63%+0.65 -11.0 11
2020-11-21 Taraz L 0-158.4 1585 1487 55.70% 20.36% 23.95%+0.44 -10.6 22
2020-11-21 @ Zhetysu W 1-058.4 1487 1585 23.95% 20.36% 55.70%-0.44 +10.6 20
2020-11-24 Caspiy L 0-151.9 1497 1268 68.77% 17.89% 13.34%+0.92 -12.8 20
2020-11-24 @ Taraz W 1-051.9 1268 1497 13.34% 17.89% 68.77%-0.92 +12.8 17
2020-11-24 Kaisar W 3-155.4 1654 1560 55.20% 20.41% 24.39%+0.43 +8.6 30
2020-11-24 @ Astana L 1-355.4 1560 1654 24.39% 20.41% 55.20%-0.43 -8.6 24
2020-11-24 Ordabasy D 0-062.5 1452 1602 23.79% 20.33% 55.88%-0.45 +1.6 20
2020-11-24 @ Kyzylzhar D 0-062.5 1602 1452 55.88% 20.33% 23.79%+0.45 -1.6 28
2020-11-24 Tobol L 0-244.5 1452 1642 20.01% 19.73% 60.27%-0.59 -8.3 11
2020-11-24 @ Okzhetpes W 2-044.5 1642 1452 60.27% 19.73% 20.01%+0.59 +8.3 35
2020-11-24 Zhetysu L 1-262.9 1567 1574 41.89% 21.19% 36.92%+0.06 -7.8 26
2020-11-24 @ Shakter Karagandy W 2-162.9 1574 1567 36.92% 21.19% 41.89%-0.06 +7.8 25
2020-11-27 Astana L 1-262.2 1582 1663 31.83% 21.03% 47.14%-0.20 -6.2 25
2020-11-27 @ Zhetysu W 2-162.2 1663 1582 47.14% 21.03% 31.83%+0.20 +6.2 33
2020-11-27 Kyzylzhar L 1-262.1 1552 1453 55.74% 20.35% 23.91%+0.45 -10.0 24
2020-11-27 @ Kaisar W 2-162.1 1453 1552 23.91% 20.35% 55.74%-0.45 +10.0 23
2020-11-27 Shakter Karagandy L 0-431.0 1281 1559 13.46% 17.93% 68.60%-0.91 -10.7 17
2020-11-27 @ Caspiy W 4-031.0 1559 1281 68.60% 17.93% 13.46%+0.91 +10.7 29
2020-11-27 Taraz W 2-044.9 1650 1484 63.02% 19.24% 17.75%+0.69 +7.4 38
2020-11-27 @ Tobol L 0-244.9 1484 1650 17.75% 19.24% 63.02%-0.69 -7.4 20
2020-11-30 Astana L 0-149.0 1463 1669 18.61% 19.44% 61.95%-0.65 -4.1 23
2020-11-30 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-049.0 1669 1463 61.95% 19.44% 18.61%+0.65 +4.1 36
2020-11-30 Caspiy W 3-029.5 1576 1271 74.65% 15.98% 9.37%+1.19 +5.6 28
2020-11-30 @ Zhetysu L 0-329.5 1271 1576 9.37% 15.98% 74.65%-1.19 -5.6 17
2020-11-30 Kairat W 1-066.1 1477 1759 13.17% 17.82% 69.01%-0.93 +12.8 23
2020-11-30 @ Taraz L 0-166.1 1759 1477 69.01% 17.82% 13.17%+0.93 -12.8 45
2020-11-30 Ordabasy L 1-350.0 1444 1600 23.17% 20.25% 56.58%-0.47 -8.2 11
2020-11-30 @ Okzhetpes W 3-150.0 1600 1444 56.58% 20.25% 23.17%+0.47 +8.2 31
2020-11-30 Tobol W 1-060.7 1569 1658 30.86% 20.98% 48.16%-0.23 +9.3 32
2020-11-30 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-160.7 1658 1569 48.16% 20.98% 30.86%+0.23 -9.3 38

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-10-01 4.27% Caspiy 1232 2 @ Astana 1702 1
2 2020-11-21 8.24% Kyzylzhar 1439 3 @ Kairat 1772 2
3 2020-10-30 8.87% Caspiy 1242 1 @ Kaisar 1559 0
4 2020-08-26 9.80% @ Caspiy 1229 1 Kaisar 1575 0
5 2020-11-30 13.17% @ Taraz 1477 1 Kairat 1759 0
6 2020-11-24 13.34% Caspiy 1268 1 @ Taraz 1497 0
7 2020-11-21 18.63% @ Caspiy 1258 2 Okzhetpes 1463 1
8 2020-11-04 19.48% @ Taraz 1486 1 Astana 1682 0
9 2020-03-15 23.26% @ Taraz 1491 3 Ordabasy 1647 2
10 2020-10-31 23.44% @ Kyzylzhar 1435 2 Zhetysu 1589 1
11 2020-11-21 23.80% Kaisar 1531 3 @ Ordabasy 1631 0
12 2020-11-27 23.91% Kyzylzhar 1453 2 @ Kaisar 1552 1
13 2020-11-21 23.95% Taraz 1487 1 @ Zhetysu 1585 0
14 2020-07-01 24.41% Shakter Karagandy 1543 1 @ Ordabasy 1637 0
15 2020-03-15 24.66% @ Shakter Karagandy 1533 1 Kairat 1675 0
16 2020-10-30 26.91% Tobol 1595 3 @ Ordabasy 1666 0
17 2020-11-21 27.04% @ Shakter Karagandy 1550 3 Astana 1671 1
18 2020-11-30 30.86% @ Shakter Karagandy 1569 1 Tobol 1658 0
19 2020-08-25 32.57% @ Tobol 1619 2 Astana 1694 0
20 2020-08-29 32.63% @ Kaisar 1561 2 Tobol 1636 1
21 2020-10-21 33.21% @ Kyzylzhar 1425 1 Taraz 1495 0
22 2020-08-26 33.48% Okzhetpes 1483 3 @ Taraz 1501 2
23 2020-09-16 33.49% Ordabasy 1617 4 @ Tobol 1634 0
24 2020-07-01 34.92% @ Kyzylzhar 1447 3 Okzhetpes 1504 1
25 2020-08-19 36.45% Kaisar 1558 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1554 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-09-16 31.62 Ordabasy 4 1617 33.49% @ Tobol 0 1634 45.41% 21.10%
2 2020-11-21 29.00 Kaisar 3 1531 23.80% @ Ordabasy 0 1631 55.87% 20.34%
3 2020-10-30 27.39 Tobol 3 1595 26.91% @ Ordabasy 0 1666 52.40% 20.69%
4 2020-03-11 20.84 @ Kairat 5 1654 58.39% Okzhetpes 0 1532 21.60% 20.01%
5 2020-10-26 20.45 Kairat 4 1739 52.60% @ Tobol 0 1616 26.73% 20.67%
6 2020-10-04 18.60 @ Kairat 3 1711 46.14% Astana 0 1688 32.78% 21.08%
7 2020-07-01 17.55 @ Kairat 3 1664 48.47% Zhetysu 0 1624 30.57% 20.96%
8 2020-08-25 16.96 @ Tobol 2 1619 32.57% Astana 0 1694 46.36% 21.07%
9 2020-09-27 16.33 @ Astana 3 1686 51.13% Zhetysu 0 1625 28.08% 20.79%
10 2020-11-21 16.29 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1550 27.04% Astana 1 1671 52.26% 20.70%
11 2020-11-03 15.37 @ Tobol 3 1622 53.21% Kaisar 0 1545 26.18% 20.61%
12 2020-07-01 14.05 @ Kyzylzhar 3 1447 34.92% Okzhetpes 1 1504 43.93% 21.15%
13 2020-10-01 14.04 Caspiy 2 1232 4.27% @ Astana 1 1702 84.11% 11.62%
14 2020-10-02 13.88 @ Tobol 2 1606 42.63% Zhetysu 0 1609 36.19% 21.18%
15 2020-10-30 13.83 Caspiy 1 1242 8.87% @ Kaisar 0 1559 75.46% 15.68%
16 2020-08-26 13.60 @ Caspiy 1 1229 9.80% Kaisar 0 1575 73.96% 16.24%
17 2020-10-22 13.41 @ Kaisar 2 1557 44.19% Shakter Karagandy 0 1549 34.67% 21.14%
18 2020-10-26 13.27 Astana 5 1676 59.99% @ Okzhetpes 1 1488 20.24% 19.77%
19 2020-11-30 12.83 @ Taraz 1 1477 13.17% Kairat 0 1759 69.01% 17.82%
20 2020-11-24 12.79 Caspiy 1 1268 13.34% @ Taraz 0 1497 68.77% 17.89%
21 2020-11-21 12.49 Kyzylzhar 3 1439 8.24% @ Kairat 2 1772 76.50% 15.26%
22 2020-08-27 11.97 @ Zhetysu 3 1592 60.44% Kyzylzhar 0 1451 19.86% 19.70%
23 2020-10-26 11.68 @ Zhetysu 3 1577 43.93% Kaisar 1 1571 34.92% 21.15%
24 2020-08-30 11.57 Kairat 3 1695 44.34% @ Ordabasy 1 1635 34.52% 21.14%
25 2020-11-04 11.46 @ Taraz 1 1486 19.48% Astana 0 1682 60.90% 19.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-09-27 82.1 @ Okzhetpes 3 1480 16.40% Kairat 3 1714 64.72% 18.89%
2 2020-11-07 80.4 @ Kaisar 2 1530 15.70% Kairat 2 1773 65.62% 18.68%
3 2020-11-21 78.3 Kyzylzhar 3 1439 8.24% @ Kairat 2 1772 76.50% 15.26%
4 2020-03-11 74.0 @ Astana 1 1687 48.57% Ordabasy 1 1646 30.47% 20.96%
5 2020-10-01 73.6 @ Kairat 1 1713 62.40% Shakter Karagandy 1 1553 18.25% 19.35%
6 2020-10-17 73.5 @ Taraz 2 1495 34.17% Kaisar 2 1557 44.70% 21.13%
7 2020-09-20 72.9 @ Astana 1 1681 58.93% Shakter Karagandy 1 1555 21.14% 19.93%
8 2020-09-20 72.1 @ Kaisar 1 1565 31.57% Ordabasy 1 1648 47.41% 21.02%
9 2020-03-15 72.0 @ Taraz 3 1491 23.26% Ordabasy 2 1647 56.48% 20.26%
10 2020-08-30 71.7 @ Astana 1 1677 64.75% Taraz 1 1493 16.37% 18.88%
11 2020-10-02 70.9 @ Ordabasy 1 1651 62.23% Taraz 1 1493 18.39% 19.39%
12 2020-08-18 69.7 Ordabasy 3 1627 38.62% @ Zhetysu 2 1607 40.17% 21.21%
13 2020-07-01 67.7 @ Kaisar 1 1559 50.85% Taraz 1 1501 28.34% 20.81%
14 2020-03-14 67.6 @ Zhetysu 0 1625 42.83% Tobol 0 1626 35.99% 21.18%
15 2020-09-11 67.4 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1556 51.11% Taraz 1 1495 28.10% 20.79%
16 2020-08-29 67.2 @ Okzhetpes 1 1491 33.90% Shakter Karagandy 1 1556 44.98% 21.12%
17 2020-11-30 66.1 @ Taraz 1 1477 13.17% Kairat 0 1759 69.01% 17.82%
18 2020-08-29 65.6 @ Kaisar 2 1561 32.63% Tobol 1 1636 46.30% 21.07%
19 2020-10-01 65.4 Caspiy 2 1232 4.27% @ Astana 1 1702 84.11% 11.62%
20 2020-09-18 64.9 @ Okzhetpes 2 1487 70.36% Caspiy 2 1239 12.21% 17.43%
21 2020-09-24 64.6 @ Zhetysu 3 1620 51.45% Shakter Karagandy 2 1556 27.79% 20.76%
22 2020-09-12 64.3 Astana 2 1675 43.06% @ Ordabasy 1 1623 35.77% 21.17%
23 2020-09-26 64.0 @ Taraz 0 1491 27.57% Tobol 0 1607 51.68% 20.75%
24 2020-11-21 64.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1550 27.04% Astana 1 1671 52.26% 20.70%
25 2020-08-26 63.6 Okzhetpes 3 1483 33.48% @ Taraz 2 1501 45.42% 21.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-30 29.5 @ Zhetysu 3 1576 74.65% Caspiy 0 1271 9.37% 15.98%
2 2020-08-18 29.9 Kairat 3 1682 80.46% @ Caspiy 0 1233 6.04% 13.50%
3 2020-07-01 30.4 @ Tobol 2 1626 80.02% Caspiy 0 1236 6.27% 13.71%
4 2020-11-27 31.0 Shakter Karagandy 4 1559 68.60% @ Caspiy 0 1281 13.46% 17.93%
5 2020-03-08 31.5 Zhetysu 2 1621 76.35% @ Caspiy 0 1240 8.33% 15.32%
6 2020-09-23 31.7 Taraz 2 1485 65.65% @ Caspiy 0 1241 15.67% 18.68%
7 2020-08-21 34.0 @ Ordabasy 1 1634 80.78% Caspiy 0 1230 5.87% 13.35%
8 2020-08-30 34.9 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1439 65.93% Caspiy 0 1242 15.46% 18.61%
9 2020-10-18 35.6 Tobol 1 1620 75.86% @ Caspiy 0 1246 8.63% 15.52%
10 2020-10-22 39.1 @ Kairat 3 1737 85.16% Caspiy 1 1245 3.81% 11.03%
11 2020-09-28 39.8 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1551 75.45% Caspiy 1 1234 8.87% 15.68%
12 2020-08-27 40.5 @ Zhetysu 3 1592 60.44% Kyzylzhar 0 1451 19.86% 19.70%
13 2020-03-07 41.2 @ Astana 4 1676 67.86% Kyzylzhar 0 1458 14.01% 18.13%
14 2020-10-26 42.1 Ordabasy 2 1665 78.87% @ Caspiy 1 1243 6.89% 14.24%
15 2020-09-12 42.2 @ Tobol 2 1627 64.86% Kyzylzhar 0 1442 16.29% 18.85%
16 2020-11-24 44.5 Tobol 2 1642 60.27% @ Okzhetpes 0 1452 20.01% 19.73%
17 2020-11-27 44.9 @ Tobol 2 1650 63.02% Taraz 0 1484 17.75% 19.24%
18 2020-08-22 45.1 @ Astana 2 1687 66.02% Okzhetpes 0 1490 15.39% 18.59%
19 2020-09-24 45.6 @ Ordabasy 1 1648 67.60% Kyzylzhar 0 1432 14.20% 18.20%
20 2020-03-11 46.3 @ Kairat 5 1654 58.39% Okzhetpes 0 1532 21.60% 20.01%
21 2020-11-03 46.7 @ Tobol 3 1622 53.21% Kaisar 0 1545 26.18% 20.61%
22 2020-03-15 47.3 Astana 3 1686 80.49% @ Caspiy 2 1237 6.02% 13.49%
23 2020-09-21 47.4 Kairat 1 1711 68.46% @ Kyzylzhar 0 1435 13.57% 17.97%
24 2020-09-19 47.5 Zhetysu 2 1608 51.25% @ Taraz 0 1496 27.97% 20.78%
25 2020-11-08 47.7 Tobol 1 1638 60.75% @ Kyzylzhar 0 1443 19.60% 19.65%