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2023 Kazakhstan Premier League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Ordabasy

58 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ordabasy

14.38 points above expected

58 points · 43.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aksu

8.77 points below expected

18 points · 26.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ordabasy 26 18 4 4 58 48 21 +27 43.62 +14.38
2 Astana 26 16 5 5 53 36 24 +12 46.90 +6.10
3 Aktobe 26 13 11 2 50 44 23 +21 44.00 +6.00
4 Kairat 26 12 8 6 44 44 32 +12 41.34 +2.66
5 Kyzylzhar 26 11 6 9 39 25 23 +2 39.58 -0.58
6 Kaisar 26 10 6 10 36 31 30 +1 33.06 +2.94
7 Atyrau 26 8 10 8 34 24 27 -3 31.65 +2.35
8 Tobol 26 9 7 10 34 29 33 -4 39.44 -5.44
9 Makhtaaral 26 8 5 13 29 29 32 -3 30.80 -1.80
10 Shakter Karagandy 26 7 8 11 29 31 36 -5 33.00 -4.00
11 Zhetysu 26 8 5 13 29 27 38 -11 27.31 +1.69
12 Okzhetpes 26 7 6 13 27 26 37 -11 34.52 -7.52
13 Caspiy 26 4 8 14 20 28 44 -16 27.08 -7.08
14 Aksu 26 5 3 18 18 23 45 -22 26.77 -8.77

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ordabasy 58 43.62 +14.38
2 Astana 53 46.90 +6.10
3 Aktobe 50 44.00 +6.00
4 Kaisar 36 33.06 +2.94
5 Kairat 44 41.34 +2.66

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aksu 18 26.77 -8.77
2 Okzhetpes 27 34.52 -7.52
3 Caspiy 20 27.08 -7.08
4 Tobol 34 39.44 -5.44
5 Shakter Karagandy 29 33.00 -4.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ordabasy 8 May 6 – Jul 10 1 in 221
2 Kyzylzhar 6 Mar 5 – Apr 16 1 in 204
3 Makhtaaral 4 Aug 20 – Sep 23 1 in 43
4 Aktobe 3 Mar 4 – Mar 14 1 in 24
5 Kaisar 3 Apr 1 – Apr 15 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aksu 7 Apr 8 – May 24 1 in 169
2 Makhtaaral 6 Apr 15 – May 21 1 in 68
3 Caspiy 5 Mar 4 – Apr 8 1 in 56
4 Okzhetpes 4 May 21 – Jun 25 1 in 42
5 Kyzylzhar 4 May 20 – Jun 24 1 in 35

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ordabasy 16 Apr 9 – Aug 27 1 in 145
2 Aktobe 17 May 21 – Oct 29 1 in 91
3 Caspiy 6 Apr 15 – May 27 1 in 51
4 Makhtaaral 6 Jul 15 – Sep 23 1 in 20
5 Kyzylzhar 8 Jul 29 – Sep 27 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tobol 10 Aug 6 – Oct 21 1 in 92
2 Okzhetpes 8 Apr 15 – Jun 25 1 in 49
3 Kyzylzhar 6 Sep 16 – Oct 29 1 in 38
4 Astana 4 Jul 22 – Aug 27 1 in 17
5 Caspiy 8 May 21 – Jul 30 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ordabasy 1462 58 -7 9 9.9 -0.9
Astana 1449 53 +5 10 8.4 +1.6
Aktobe 1459 50 +18 9 8.5 +0.5
Kairat 1414 44 +10 9 9.4 -0.4
Kyzylzhar 1348 39 -31 2 8.1 -6.1
Kaisar 1327 36 +8 10 7.3 +2.7
Tobol 1339 34 +13 6 7.0 -1.0
Atyrau 1307 34 +9 6 6.3 -0.3
Shakter Karagandy 1305 29 +4 6 5.4 +0.6
Makhtaaral 1304 29 -10 5 5.9 -0.9
Zhetysu 1245 29 +0 4 3.7 +0.3
Okzhetpes 1288 27 +4 6 5.4 +0.6
Caspiy 1229 20 -7 5 4.5 +0.5
Aksu 1212 18 -30 3 5.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AKS AKT AST ATY CAS KAI KAI KYZ MAK OKZ ORD SK TOB ZHE
Aksu —
0-1-1
1.44
0-0-2
1.37
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.72
0-0-2
1.94
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-2
1.43
1-0-1
2.14
0-0-2
2.07
1-1-0
2.61
Aktobe
1-1-0
4.09
 —
2-0-0
2.43
1-1-0
3.71
0-2-0
4.00
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
3.47
0-1-1
3.17
1-1-0
3.86
1-1-0
3.51
1-1-0
2.71
2-0-0
3.56
0-2-0
3.22
1-1-0
3.72
Astana
2-0-0
4.18
0-0-2
3.05
 —
0-2-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.13
0-0-2
3.24
1-1-0
3.61
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
4.06
1-1-0
3.69
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
3.73
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
4.04
Atyrau
1-0-1
3.14
0-1-1
1.79
0-2-0
1.72
 —
1-1-0
3.05
0-2-0
2.08
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.05
2-0-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
3.07
Caspiy
2-0-0
2.75
0-2-0
1.52
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-1
2.43
 —
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
1.74
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
2.29
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
2.90
Kairat
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.24
0-2-0
3.40
1-1-0
3.84
 —
0-1-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.86
0-1-1
3.81
2-0-0
3.23
0-1-1
2.57
0-2-0
3.49
2-0-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.80
Kaisar
0-1-1
3.16
0-0-2
2.02
0-1-1
1.89
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
1.97
 —
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
1.92
1-1-0
2.80
2-0-0
2.12
1-1-0
3.16
Kyzylzhar
2-0-0
3.67
1-1-0
2.30
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
3.13
 —
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.27
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
3.39
0-1-1
2.96
1-1-0
3.63
Makhtaaral
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
2.65
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
1.70
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
2.18
 —
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.81
Okzhetpes
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
1.82
1-1-0
2.64
0-1-1
3.39
0-0-2
2.24
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.21
1-1-0
2.83
 —
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
3.21
Ordabasy
2-0-0
4.11
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.62
1-1-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.82
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.44
 —
2-0-0
3.35
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.89
Shakter Karagandy
1-0-1
3.34
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
1.77
0-1-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.18
0-2-0
2.00
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.62
0-0-2
2.15
 —
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.16
Tobol
2-0-0
3.42
0-2-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.59
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-2
3.36
1-1-0
2.52
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.21
 —
0-1-1
3.71
Zhetysu
0-1-1
2.87
0-1-1
1.81
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
1.71
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
1.87
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
1.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +12.1
Allowed 0.80 -13.9
Differential 0.94 +8.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.59%11.81%4.67%2.47%1.10%—26.65%
111.81%12.64%9.89%3.85%1.37%0.27%39.84%
24.67%9.89%5.49%1.37%0.27%0.27%21.98%
32.47%3.85%1.37%0.55%——8.24%
41.10%1.37%0.27%———2.75%
5+—0.27%0.27%———0.55%
Total26.65%39.84%21.98%8.24%2.75%0.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.05 1.05 1.53
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—23.08%11.54%7.69%——42.31%
1—7.69%11.54%11.54%3.85%—34.62%
23.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
3———————
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total3.85%46.15%26.92%19.23%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.73 -0.85
SD 0.99 0.96 1.52
CV 1.12 0.56 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%—————11.54%
115.38%19.23%3.85%3.85%——42.31%
27.69%11.54%11.54%———30.77%
3———————
43.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total38.46%38.46%19.23%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 0.88 +0.81
SD 1.29 0.86 1.39
CV 0.76 0.98 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
115.38%7.69%——3.85%—26.92%
211.54%23.08%————34.62%
3—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
4———————
5+——3.85%———3.85%
Total38.46%42.31%11.54%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 0.92 +0.46
SD 1.20 1.02 1.48
CV 0.87 1.10 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.08%15.38%——7.69%—46.15%
17.69%7.69%3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
23.85%11.54%7.69%———23.08%
37.69%—————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.31%34.62%11.54%—11.54%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.04 -0.12
SD 1.02 1.28 1.70
CV 1.10 1.23 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
17.69%19.23%11.54%23.08%——61.54%
2—3.85%3.85%3.85%——11.54%
3—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%38.46%19.23%30.77%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.69 -0.62
SD 0.80 1.05 1.13
CV 0.74 0.62 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%—3.85%——19.23%
17.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
2—11.54%11.54%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
311.54%7.69%3.85%———23.08%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total30.77%34.62%19.23%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.23 +0.46
SD 1.16 1.14 1.61
CV 0.68 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%7.69%—3.85%—30.77%
115.38%7.69%7.69%———30.77%
27.69%3.85%11.54%3.85%——26.92%
33.85%7.69%————11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.77%34.62%26.92%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.15 +0.04
SD 1.02 1.05 1.56
CV 0.86 0.91 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%—3.85%——26.92%
126.92%15.38%11.54%———53.85%
23.85%7.69%—3.85%——15.38%
3—3.85%————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%42.31%11.54%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 0.88 +0.08
SD 0.77 0.91 1.16
CV 0.80 1.03 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—23.08%7.69%3.85%——34.62%
13.85%11.54%15.38%———30.77%
211.54%3.85%7.69%———23.08%
3—11.54%————11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.38%50.00%30.77%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.23 -0.12
SD 1.03 0.76 1.45
CV 0.93 0.62 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%19.23%7.69%—3.85%—38.46%
111.54%11.54%11.54%——3.85%38.46%
2—7.69%———3.85%11.54%
33.85%——3.85%——7.69%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total26.92%38.46%19.23%3.85%3.85%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.42 -0.42
SD 1.10 1.45 1.81
CV 1.10 1.02 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
119.23%7.69%7.69%———34.62%
27.69%15.38%3.85%———26.92%
3—7.69%3.85%———11.54%
47.69%7.69%————15.38%
5+———————
Total38.46%42.31%19.23%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 0.81 +1.04
SD 1.26 0.75 1.48
CV 0.68 0.93 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
17.69%19.23%19.23%7.69%3.85%—57.69%
23.85%7.69%7.69%———19.23%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.23%38.46%30.77%7.69%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.38 -0.19
SD 0.80 1.02 1.39
CV 0.67 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%3.85%7.69%——23.08%
115.38%19.23%11.54%—3.85%—50.00%
23.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%——19.23%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.92%38.46%19.23%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.27 -0.15
SD 0.86 1.12 1.54
CV 0.77 0.88 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.54%11.54%3.85%——26.92%
111.54%15.38%19.23%3.85%——50.00%
2—11.54%3.85%———15.38%
3——7.69%———7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%38.46%42.31%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.46 -0.42
SD 0.87 0.81 1.21
CV 0.84 0.56 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ordabasy 1462 58 43.62 +14.38 98.0% 27 31 39 44 49 54 64
Aktobe 1459 50 44.00 +6.00 84.0% 25 31 40 44 49 56 69
Astana 1449 53 46.90 +6.10 91.0% 33 35 42 48 51 57 62
Kairat 1414 44 41.34 +2.66 74.0% 29 31 37 41 45 51 60
Kyzylzhar 1348 39 39.58 -0.58 49.0% 18 27 35 40 45 49 55
Tobol 1339 34 39.44 -5.44 23.0% 23 29 35 38 43 54 59
Kaisar 1327 36 33.06 +2.94 67.0% 16 19 29 33 38 46 53
Atyrau 1307 34 31.65 +2.35 66.0% 19 21 27 31 36 41 45
Shakter Karagandy 1305 29 33.00 -4.00 31.0% 15 21 29 32 38 44 48
Makhtaaral 1304 29 30.80 -1.80 43.0% 18 21 26 32 35 42 47
Okzhetpes 1288 27 34.52 -7.52 18.0% 20 24 29 34 38 47 53
Zhetysu 1245 29 27.31 +1.69 67.0% 10 17 24 27 31 37 40
Caspiy 1229 20 27.08 -7.08 15.0% 11 17 22 27 32 37 45
Aksu 1212 18 26.77 -8.77 9.0% 12 17 24 27 30 35 42

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 19% * Slight Edge: 19% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 31% * Strong Edge: 31% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.19%
No Edge
43.96%25.27%30.77%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.08 Elo pts.
229 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.03 * Tight Race: 0.03 to 0.1 * Comfortable: 0.1 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
14%
Ordabasy, 3rd of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Runaway
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.37 * Some Luck: 5.37 to 8.05 * Lucky: 8.05 to 10.73 * Wild Swing: 10.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.91 * Close: 1.91 to 2.86 * Off: 2.86 to 3.82 * Way Off: 3.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.19 points
Some Luck
06.7117
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.43
Pinpoint
02.395
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
98.00%
Ordabasy
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
9.00%
Aksu
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.75 * Moderate Separation: 1.75 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.35 * Wide Separation: 2.35 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70.5% * Slight Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 79% * Wide Edge: 79% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 90.5% * Clear Edge: 90.5% to 95% * Strong Edge: 95% to 98.5% * Dominant: 98.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 64% * Frequent: 64% to 67.5% * Very Frequent: 67.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 13.5% * Occasional: 13.5% to 15.5% * Frequent: 15.5% to 18.5% * Very Frequent: 18.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.170.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 83.34
1.78
Moderate Separation
0.91.752.353
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%70.5%79%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%67%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%10%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.41 * Slight Separation: 0.41 to 0.45 * Notable Separation: 0.45 to 0.49 * Lopsided: 0.49 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.64 * Strong Carryover: 0.64 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 20.5% * Upset-Prone: 20.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 18% * Shaky Favorites: 18% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Very Even
00.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.470.641
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.57
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.106
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Ordabasy14.00%25.00%16.00%14.00%9.00%4.00%8.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%—2.00%——
Astana37.00%24.00%13.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%5.00%—1.00%————
Aktobe20.00%17.00%19.00%15.00%7.00%4.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Kairat9.00%8.00%17.00%17.00%14.00%13.00%9.00%3.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%——
Kyzylzhar3.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%12.00%14.00%5.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%
Kaisar3.00%2.00%2.00%5.00%9.00%11.00%6.00%10.00%8.00%12.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%9.00%
Atyrau1.00%—4.00%1.00%9.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%
Tobol9.00%8.00%5.00%6.00%11.00%18.00%16.00%4.00%8.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%—2.00%
Makhtaaral——3.00%1.00%3.00%12.00%9.00%9.00%11.00%12.00%7.00%12.00%13.00%8.00%
Shakter Karagandy1.00%2.00%3.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%8.00%14.00%8.00%14.00%16.00%4.00%3.00%9.00%
Zhetysu————4.00%1.00%7.00%2.00%7.00%10.00%12.00%20.00%20.00%17.00%
Okzhetpes3.00%4.00%2.00%7.00%11.00%4.00%13.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%5.00%10.00%4.00%5.00%
Caspiy—1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—3.00%8.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%12.00%17.00%23.00%
Aksu———1.00%—2.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%7.00%19.00%17.00%23.00%19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Astana 100% —
Aktobe 99.00% 1.00%
Kairat 99.00% 1.00%
Ordabasy 98.00% 2.00%
Tobol 97.00% 3.00%
Kyzylzhar 95.00% 5.00%
Shakter Karagandy 84.00% 16.00%
Okzhetpes 81.00% 19.00%
Kaisar 77.00% 23.00%
Atyrau 71.00% 29.00%
Makhtaaral 67.00% 33.00%
Caspiy 48.00% 52.00%
Zhetysu 43.00% 57.00%
Aksu 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-03-04 Aksu W 3-139.6 1394 1304 54.37% 24.91% 20.72%+0.59 +8.6 3
2023-03-04 @ Tobol L 1-339.6 1304 1394 20.72% 24.91% 54.37%-0.59 -8.6 0
2023-03-04 Aktobe L 0-140.7 1284 1358 32.67% 26.72% 40.61%-0.12 -7.7 0
2023-03-04 @ Zhetysu W 1-040.7 1358 1284 40.61% 26.72% 32.67%+0.12 +7.7 3
2023-03-04 Caspiy W 3-140.6 1334 1294 48.39% 26.01% 25.60%+0.38 +10.3 3
2023-03-04 @ Ordabasy L 1-340.6 1294 1334 25.60% 26.01% 48.39%-0.38 -10.3 0
2023-03-04 Shakter Karagandy W 2-143.9 1444 1326 57.69% 24.05% 18.25%+0.72 +4.4 3
2023-03-04 @ Astana L 1-243.9 1326 1444 18.25% 24.05% 57.69%-0.72 -4.4 0
2023-03-05 Atyrau D 2-261.8 1365 1305 50.86% 25.62% 23.52%+0.46 -1.0 1
2023-03-05 @ Kairat D 2-261.8 1305 1365 23.52% 25.62% 50.86%-0.46 +1.0 1
2023-03-05 Kyzylzhar L 0-141.6 1296 1352 35.28% 26.80% 37.92%-0.04 -8.2 0
2023-03-05 @ Kaisar W 1-041.6 1352 1296 37.92% 26.80% 35.28%+0.04 +8.2 3
2023-03-05 Okzhetpes L 0-142.2 1295 1334 37.74% 26.80% 35.46%+0.03 -8.6 0
2023-03-05 @ Makhtaaral W 1-042.2 1334 1295 35.46% 26.80% 37.74%-0.03 +8.6 3
2023-03-09 Astana L 0-233.8 1276 1449 21.54% 25.14% 53.33%-0.55 -10.3 0
2023-03-09 @ Zhetysu W 2-033.8 1449 1276 53.33% 25.14% 21.54%+0.55 +10.3 6
2023-03-09 Kairat L 1-343.5 1296 1364 33.46% 26.76% 39.78%-0.10 -12.8 0
2023-03-09 @ Aksu W 3-143.5 1364 1296 39.78% 26.76% 33.46%+0.10 +12.8 4
2023-03-09 Okzhetpes W 5-138.2 1366 1342 46.26% 26.28% 27.46%+0.30 +20.0 6
2023-03-09 @ Aktobe L 1-538.2 1342 1366 27.46% 26.28% 46.26%-0.30 -20.0 3
2023-03-09 Ordabasy L 1-442.7 1321 1345 39.80% 26.76% 33.44%+0.10 -20.6 0
2023-03-09 @ Shakter Karagandy W 4-142.7 1345 1321 33.44% 26.76% 39.80%-0.10 +20.6 6
2023-03-10 Kaisar W 2-145.5 1306 1288 45.51% 26.36% 28.12%+0.28 +6.5 4
2023-03-10 @ Atyrau L 1-245.5 1288 1306 28.12% 26.36% 45.51%-0.28 -6.4 0
2023-03-10 Makhtaaral W 1-037.2 1360 1287 52.43% 25.32% 22.24%+0.52 +5.6 6
2023-03-10 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-137.2 1287 1360 22.24% 25.32% 52.43%-0.52 -5.6 0
2023-03-10 Tobol L 0-139.4 1284 1402 27.20% 26.25% 46.55%-0.31 -6.7 0
2023-03-10 @ Caspiy W 1-039.4 1402 1284 46.55% 26.25% 27.20%+0.31 +6.7 6
2023-03-14 Aksu D 2-260.7 1282 1283 42.90% 26.59% 30.51%+0.20 -0.4 1
2023-03-14 @ Kaisar D 2-260.7 1283 1282 30.51% 26.59% 42.90%-0.20 +0.4 1
2023-03-14 Aktobe L 1-449.3 1459 1386 52.46% 25.32% 22.22%+0.52 -25.7 6
2023-03-14 @ Astana W 4-149.3 1386 1459 22.22% 25.32% 52.46%-0.52 +25.7 9
2023-03-14 Caspiy W 3-138.7 1377 1277 55.58% 24.62% 19.80%+0.64 +8.2 7
2023-03-14 @ Kairat L 1-338.7 1277 1377 19.80% 24.62% 55.58%-0.64 -8.2 0
2023-03-14 Shakter Karagandy W 2-143.3 1409 1301 56.53% 24.37% 19.10%+0.67 +4.6 9
2023-03-14 @ Tobol L 1-243.3 1301 1409 19.10% 24.37% 56.53%-0.67 -4.6 0
2023-03-14 Zhetysu W 2-032.0 1365 1266 55.56% 24.62% 19.82%+0.63 +9.5 9
2023-03-14 @ Ordabasy L 0-232.0 1266 1365 19.82% 24.62% 55.56%-0.63 -9.5 0
2023-03-15 Atyrau L 0-142.2 1281 1313 38.70% 26.79% 34.52%+0.06 -8.7 0
2023-03-15 @ Makhtaaral W 1-042.2 1313 1281 34.52% 26.79% 38.70%-0.06 +8.7 7
2023-03-15 Kyzylzhar L 0-142.5 1322 1365 37.01% 26.81% 36.18%+0.01 -8.4 3
2023-03-15 @ Okzhetpes W 1-042.5 1365 1322 36.18% 26.81% 37.01%-0.01 +8.4 9
2023-04-01 Kairat D 1-155.1 1296 1385 30.73% 26.61% 42.66%-0.19 +0.5 1
2023-04-01 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.1 1385 1296 42.66% 26.61% 30.73%+0.19 -0.5 8
2023-04-01 Kaisar L 1-345.1 1269 1281 41.39% 26.69% 31.93%+0.15 -15.0 0
2023-04-01 @ Caspiy W 3-145.1 1281 1269 31.93% 26.69% 41.39%-0.15 +15.0 4
2023-04-01 Makhtaaral W 2-145.5 1283 1273 44.53% 26.46% 29.01%+0.25 +6.6 4
2023-04-01 @ Aksu L 1-245.5 1273 1283 29.01% 26.46% 44.53%-0.25 -6.6 0
2023-04-02 Kyzylzhar L 1-349.6 1412 1374 48.09% 26.05% 25.85%+0.37 -16.9 9
2023-04-02 @ Aktobe W 3-149.6 1374 1412 25.85% 26.05% 48.09%-0.37 +16.9 12
2023-04-02 Okzhetpes L 0-439.0 1321 1314 44.12% 26.50% 29.38%+0.23 -34.5 7
2023-04-02 @ Atyrau W 4-039.0 1314 1321 29.38% 26.50% 44.12%-0.23 +34.5 6
2023-04-02 Ordabasy W 2-036.1 1433 1375 50.66% 25.65% 23.68%+0.45 +11.2 9
2023-04-02 @ Astana L 0-236.1 1375 1433 23.68% 25.65% 50.66%-0.45 -11.2 9
2023-04-02 Tobol D 1-155.3 1256 1413 23.02% 25.51% 51.47%-0.48 +1.3 1
2023-04-02 @ Zhetysu D 1-155.3 1413 1256 51.47% 25.51% 23.02%+0.48 -1.3 10
2023-04-08 Aksu W 3-032.0 1348 1290 50.67% 25.65% 23.68%+0.45 +16.2 9
2023-04-08 @ Okzhetpes L 0-332.0 1290 1348 23.68% 25.65% 50.67%-0.45 -16.2 4
2023-04-08 Atyrau W 1-036.5 1391 1287 56.05% 24.50% 19.45%+0.65 +5.0 15
2023-04-08 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-136.5 1287 1391 19.45% 24.50% 56.05%-0.65 -5.0 7
2023-04-08 Caspiy W 3-141.1 1266 1254 44.69% 26.45% 28.87%+0.25 +11.4 3
2023-04-08 @ Makhtaaral L 1-341.1 1254 1266 28.87% 26.45% 44.69%-0.25 -11.4 0
2023-04-08 Shakter Karagandy W 2-146.2 1296 1297 43.02% 26.58% 30.39%+0.20 +6.9 7
2023-04-08 @ Kaisar L 1-246.2 1297 1296 30.39% 26.58% 43.02%-0.20 -6.9 1
2023-04-09 Aktobe D 1-156.2 1364 1395 38.75% 26.79% 34.46%+0.07 -0.2 10
2023-04-09 @ Ordabasy D 1-156.2 1395 1364 34.46% 26.79% 38.75%-0.07 +0.2 10
2023-04-09 Astana L 0-146.3 1412 1444 38.56% 26.79% 34.65%+0.06 -8.7 10
2023-04-09 @ Tobol W 1-046.3 1444 1412 34.65% 26.79% 38.56%-0.06 +8.7 12
2023-04-09 Zhetysu L 2-359.4 1385 1258 58.61% 23.79% 17.60%+0.75 -10.9 8
2023-04-09 @ Kairat W 3-259.4 1258 1385 17.60% 23.79% 58.61%-0.75 +10.9 4
2023-04-15 Kaisar L 0-237.8 1269 1303 38.26% 26.80% 34.95%+0.05 -16.3 4
2023-04-15 @ Zhetysu W 2-037.8 1303 1269 34.95% 26.80% 38.26%-0.05 +16.3 10
2023-04-15 Makhtaaral W 3-033.3 1290 1277 44.75% 26.44% 28.81%+0.25 +19.1 4
2023-04-15 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-333.3 1277 1290 28.81% 26.44% 44.75%-0.25 -19.1 3
2023-04-15 Okzhetpes W 2-151.2 1243 1364 26.77% 26.19% 47.04%-0.33 +9.6 3
2023-04-15 @ Caspiy L 1-251.2 1364 1243 47.04% 26.19% 26.77%+0.33 -9.6 9
2023-04-16 Atyrau W 4-031.1 1395 1282 57.08% 24.22% 18.69%+0.69 +17.1 13
2023-04-16 @ Aktobe L 0-431.1 1282 1395 18.69% 24.22% 57.08%-0.69 -17.1 7
2023-04-16 Kairat L 0-343.8 1453 1374 53.22% 25.16% 21.62%+0.55 -30.9 12
2023-04-16 @ Astana W 3-043.8 1374 1453 21.62% 25.16% 53.22%-0.55 +30.9 11
2023-04-16 Kyzylzhar L 0-234.9 1274 1396 26.76% 26.19% 47.05%-0.33 -12.4 4
2023-04-16 @ Aksu W 2-034.9 1396 1274 47.05% 26.19% 26.76%+0.33 +12.4 18
2023-04-16 Tobol W 4-142.9 1364 1403 37.50% 26.81% 35.69%+0.03 +19.0 13
2023-04-16 @ Ordabasy L 1-442.9 1403 1364 35.69% 26.81% 37.50%-0.03 -19.0 10
2023-04-22 Caspiy D 1-156.0 1408 1252 61.65% 22.80% 15.55%+0.88 -2.3 19
2023-04-22 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-156.0 1252 1408 15.55% 22.80% 61.65%-0.88 +2.3 4
2023-04-22 Zhetysu L 1-249.8 1258 1252 43.88% 26.52% 29.60%+0.23 -9.1 3
2023-04-22 @ Makhtaaral W 2-149.8 1252 1258 29.60% 26.52% 43.88%-0.23 +9.1 7
2023-04-23 Aksu W 2-145.7 1265 1261 43.54% 26.54% 29.91%+0.22 +6.8 10
2023-04-23 @ Atyrau L 1-245.7 1261 1265 29.91% 26.54% 43.54%-0.22 -6.8 4
2023-04-23 Aktobe D 2-263.5 1384 1412 39.22% 26.77% 34.01%+0.08 -0.2 11
2023-04-23 @ Tobol D 2-263.5 1412 1384 34.01% 26.77% 39.22%-0.08 +0.2 14
2023-04-23 Astana L 1-247.4 1319 1422 29.02% 26.46% 44.51%-0.25 -6.6 10
2023-04-23 @ Kaisar W 2-147.4 1422 1319 44.51% 26.46% 29.02%+0.25 +6.6 15
2023-04-23 Ordabasy D 2-263.4 1405 1383 46.03% 26.31% 27.66%+0.30 -0.6 12
2023-04-23 @ Kairat D 2-263.4 1383 1405 27.66% 26.31% 46.03%-0.30 +0.6 14
2023-04-23 Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.2 1355 1309 49.13% 25.90% 24.96%+0.40 -1.1 10
2023-04-23 @ Okzhetpes D 1-155.2 1309 1355 24.96% 25.90% 49.13%-0.40 +1.1 5
2023-05-06 Aksu W 2-141.2 1412 1255 61.84% 22.74% 15.43%+0.89 +3.7 17
2023-05-06 @ Aktobe L 1-241.2 1255 1412 15.43% 22.74% 61.84%-0.89 -3.7 4
2023-05-06 Kairat L 2-356.9 1384 1404 40.33% 26.74% 32.93%+0.11 -8.1 11
2023-05-06 @ Tobol W 3-256.9 1404 1384 32.93% 26.74% 40.33%-0.11 +8.0 15
2023-05-06 Kaisar W 4-032.8 1383 1313 52.14% 25.38% 22.48%+0.51 +20.3 17
2023-05-06 @ Ordabasy L 0-432.8 1313 1383 22.48% 25.38% 52.14%-0.51 -20.3 10
2023-05-06 Makhtaaral W 2-029.9 1429 1249 64.03% 21.93% 14.04%+0.98 +6.8 18
2023-05-06 @ Astana L 0-229.9 1249 1429 14.04% 21.93% 64.03%-0.98 -6.8 3
2023-05-07 Atyrau D 1-154.0 1254 1272 40.71% 26.72% 32.57%+0.13 -0.4 5
2023-05-07 @ Caspiy D 1-154.0 1272 1254 32.57% 26.72% 40.71%-0.13 +0.4 11
2023-05-07 Kyzylzhar W 1-044.8 1310 1406 29.89% 26.54% 43.57%-0.22 +9.6 8
2023-05-07 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-144.8 1406 1310 43.57% 26.54% 29.89%+0.22 -9.6 19
2023-05-07 Okzhetpes W 1-043.6 1261 1354 30.32% 26.58% 43.10%-0.20 +9.5 10
2023-05-07 @ Zhetysu L 0-143.6 1354 1261 43.10% 26.58% 30.32%+0.20 -9.5 10
2023-05-10 Astana L 0-136.6 1242 1436 19.69% 24.58% 55.73%-0.64 -5.0 3
2023-05-10 @ Makhtaaral W 1-036.6 1436 1242 55.73% 24.58% 19.69%+0.64 +5.0 21
2023-05-13 Caspiy L 0-142.9 1251 1254 42.62% 26.61% 30.77%+0.19 -9.4 4
2023-05-13 @ Aksu W 1-042.9 1254 1251 30.77% 26.61% 42.62%-0.19 +9.4 8
2023-05-13 Ordabasy L 1-243.7 1237 1403 22.14% 25.30% 52.56%-0.52 -5.3 3
2023-05-13 @ Makhtaaral W 2-143.7 1403 1237 52.56% 25.30% 22.14%+0.52 +5.3 20
2023-05-13 Shakter Karagandy W 2-148.2 1272 1320 36.37% 26.81% 36.82%-0.01 +7.9 14
2023-05-13 @ Atyrau L 1-248.2 1320 1272 36.82% 26.81% 36.37%+0.01 -7.9 8
2023-05-13 Zhetysu W 1-035.6 1396 1271 58.44% 23.84% 17.73%+0.75 +4.5 22
2023-05-13 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-135.6 1271 1396 17.73% 23.84% 58.44%-0.75 -4.6 10
2023-05-14 Aktobe W 2-149.8 1412 1416 42.54% 26.62% 30.85%+0.18 +6.9 18
2023-05-14 @ Kairat L 1-249.8 1416 1412 30.85% 26.62% 42.54%-0.18 -6.9 17
2023-05-14 Astana D 0-051.4 1344 1441 29.82% 26.54% 43.64%-0.22 +0.7 11
2023-05-14 @ Okzhetpes D 0-051.4 1441 1344 43.64% 26.54% 29.82%+0.22 -0.7 22
2023-05-14 Tobol W 1-043.7 1293 1376 31.45% 26.66% 41.89%-0.16 +9.3 13
2023-05-14 @ Kaisar L 0-143.7 1376 1293 41.89% 26.66% 31.45%+0.16 -9.3 11
2023-05-20 Aksu W 2-143.2 1312 1241 52.12% 25.38% 22.49%+0.51 +5.3 11
2023-05-20 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-243.2 1241 1312 22.49% 25.38% 52.12%-0.51 -5.4 4
2023-05-20 Atyrau L 0-337.0 1266 1280 41.21% 26.69% 32.10%+0.14 -25.1 10
2023-05-20 @ Zhetysu W 3-037.0 1280 1266 32.10% 26.69% 41.21%-0.14 +25.1 17
2023-05-20 Kyzylzhar W 3-253.6 1440 1401 48.26% 26.03% 25.71%+0.37 +5.7 25
2023-05-20 @ Astana L 2-353.6 1401 1440 25.71% 26.03% 48.26%-0.37 -5.7 22
2023-05-21 Caspiy D 0-050.7 1409 1264 60.58% 23.17% 16.25%+0.83 -2.4 18
2023-05-21 @ Aktobe D 0-050.7 1264 1409 16.25% 23.17% 60.58%-0.83 +2.4 9
2023-05-21 Kaisar L 0-342.7 1419 1302 57.54% 24.10% 18.36%+0.71 -33.0 18
2023-05-21 @ Kairat W 3-042.7 1302 1419 18.36% 24.10% 57.54%-0.71 +33.0 16
2023-05-21 Makhtaaral W 1-034.8 1367 1232 59.44% 23.53% 17.02%+0.79 +4.4 14
2023-05-21 @ Tobol L 0-134.8 1232 1367 17.02% 23.53% 59.44%-0.79 -4.4 3
2023-05-21 Okzhetpes W 1-039.0 1409 1345 51.33% 25.53% 23.13%+0.48 +5.8 23
2023-05-21 @ Ordabasy L 0-139.0 1345 1409 23.13% 25.53% 51.33%-0.48 -5.8 11
2023-05-24 Astana L 0-136.1 1236 1446 18.34% 24.09% 57.57%-0.71 -4.7 4
2023-05-24 @ Aksu W 1-036.1 1446 1236 57.57% 24.09% 18.34%+0.71 +4.7 28
2023-05-27 Kairat W 3-148.2 1228 1386 22.90% 25.48% 51.62%-0.49 +17.9 6
2023-05-27 @ Makhtaaral L 1-348.2 1386 1228 51.62% 25.48% 22.90%+0.49 -17.9 18
2023-05-27 Shakter Karagandy D 1-154.2 1266 1317 35.89% 26.81% 37.30%-0.02 +0.1 10
2023-05-27 @ Caspiy D 1-154.2 1317 1266 37.30% 26.81% 35.89%+0.02 -0.1 12
2023-05-27 Zhetysu W 2-146.1 1231 1241 41.71% 26.67% 31.62%+0.16 +7.1 7
2023-05-27 @ Aksu L 1-246.1 1241 1231 31.62% 26.67% 41.71%-0.16 -7.1 10
2023-05-28 Aktobe L 0-142.1 1335 1407 33.01% 26.74% 40.25%-0.11 -7.8 16
2023-05-28 @ Kaisar W 1-042.1 1407 1335 40.25% 26.74% 33.01%+0.11 +7.8 21
2023-05-28 Astana D 0-051.1 1305 1450 24.20% 25.76% 50.04%-0.43 +1.3 18
2023-05-28 @ Atyrau D 0-051.1 1450 1305 50.04% 25.76% 24.20%+0.43 -1.3 29
2023-05-28 Ordabasy L 0-145.6 1395 1415 40.38% 26.73% 32.89%+0.12 -9.0 22
2023-05-28 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-045.6 1415 1395 32.89% 26.73% 40.38%-0.12 +9.0 26
2023-05-28 Tobol L 1-249.9 1339 1371 38.60% 26.79% 34.61%+0.06 -8.2 11
2023-05-28 @ Okzhetpes W 2-149.9 1371 1339 34.61% 26.79% 38.60%-0.06 +8.2 17
2023-06-03 Aksu W 1-033.3 1449 1238 66.96% 20.73% 12.31%+1.12 +3.1 32
2023-06-03 @ Astana L 0-133.3 1238 1449 12.31% 20.73% 66.96%-1.12 -3.1 7
2023-06-03 Atyrau W 2-143.3 1424 1306 57.56% 24.09% 18.35%+0.71 +4.4 29
2023-06-03 @ Ordabasy L 1-243.3 1306 1424 18.35% 24.09% 57.56%-0.71 -4.4 18
2023-06-03 Kyzylzhar W 1-041.9 1379 1386 42.16% 26.64% 31.20%+0.17 +7.4 20
2023-06-03 @ Tobol L 0-141.9 1386 1379 31.20% 26.64% 42.16%-0.17 -7.4 22
2023-06-03 Okzhetpes W 2-145.7 1368 1331 47.99% 26.07% 25.94%+0.36 +6.0 21
2023-06-03 @ Kairat L 1-245.7 1331 1368 25.94% 26.07% 47.99%-0.36 -6.0 11
2023-06-03 Shakter Karagandy W 2-033.3 1414 1317 55.33% 24.68% 19.99%+0.63 +9.6 24
2023-06-03 @ Aktobe L 0-233.3 1317 1414 19.99% 24.68% 55.33%-0.63 -9.6 12
2023-06-04 Caspiy W 3-252.3 1234 1266 38.64% 26.79% 34.58%+0.06 +7.2 13
2023-06-04 @ Zhetysu L 2-352.3 1266 1234 34.58% 26.79% 38.64%-0.06 -7.2 10
2023-06-04 Makhtaaral L 0-241.9 1327 1246 53.45% 25.11% 21.44%+0.56 -21.3 16
2023-06-04 @ Kaisar W 2-041.9 1246 1327 21.44% 25.11% 53.45%-0.56 +21.3 9
2023-06-24 Caspiy W 3-136.4 1452 1259 65.34% 21.41% 13.25%+1.04 +5.5 35
2023-06-24 @ Astana L 1-336.4 1259 1452 13.25% 21.41% 65.34%-1.04 -5.5 10
2023-06-24 Kyzylzhar W 3-036.0 1374 1379 42.45% 26.62% 30.93%+0.18 +20.2 24
2023-06-24 @ Kairat L 0-336.0 1379 1374 30.93% 26.62% 42.45%-0.18 -20.2 22
2023-06-24 Ordabasy L 0-136.4 1235 1428 19.73% 24.59% 55.67%-0.64 -5.0 7
2023-06-24 @ Aksu W 1-036.4 1428 1235 55.67% 24.59% 19.73%+0.64 +5.0 32
2023-06-24 Tobol W 3-038.4 1302 1387 31.26% 26.65% 42.09%-0.17 +25.5 21
2023-06-24 @ Atyrau L 0-338.4 1387 1302 42.09% 26.65% 31.26%+0.17 -25.5 20
2023-06-24 Zhetysu L 0-145.4 1307 1241 51.60% 25.48% 22.91%+0.49 -11.0 12
2023-06-24 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-045.4 1241 1307 22.91% 25.48% 51.60%-0.49 +11.0 16
2023-06-25 Kaisar L 0-144.4 1325 1306 45.66% 26.35% 27.99%+0.28 -9.9 11
2023-06-25 @ Okzhetpes W 1-044.4 1306 1325 27.99% 26.35% 45.66%-0.28 +9.9 19
2023-06-25 Makhtaaral D 1-156.4 1424 1267 61.76% 22.77% 15.48%+0.88 -2.3 25
2023-06-25 @ Aktobe D 1-156.4 1267 1424 15.48% 22.77% 61.76%-0.88 +2.3 10
2023-07-01 Aktobe L 1-244.7 1269 1422 23.49% 25.61% 50.90%-0.46 -5.5 10
2023-07-01 @ Makhtaaral W 2-144.7 1422 1269 50.90% 25.61% 23.49%+0.46 +5.5 28
2023-07-01 Okzhetpes L 0-143.7 1316 1315 43.16% 26.57% 30.27%+0.20 -9.5 19
2023-07-01 @ Kaisar W 1-043.7 1315 1316 30.27% 26.57% 43.16%-0.20 +9.5 14
2023-07-01 Shakter Karagandy L 1-343.8 1252 1296 36.90% 26.81% 36.29%+0.01 -13.8 16
2023-07-01 @ Zhetysu W 3-143.8 1296 1252 36.29% 26.81% 36.90%-0.01 +13.8 15
2023-07-02 Aksu W 2-029.1 1433 1230 66.23% 21.04% 12.73%+1.08 +6.1 35
2023-07-02 @ Ordabasy L 0-229.1 1230 1433 12.73% 21.04% 66.23%-1.08 -6.1 7
2023-07-02 Astana L 1-243.2 1253 1458 18.76% 24.25% 56.99%-0.69 -4.5 10
2023-07-02 @ Caspiy W 2-143.2 1458 1253 56.99% 24.25% 18.76%+0.69 +4.5 38
2023-07-02 Atyrau W 1-039.1 1361 1327 47.60% 26.12% 26.28%+0.35 +6.5 23
2023-07-02 @ Tobol L 0-139.1 1327 1361 26.28% 26.12% 47.60%-0.35 -6.5 21
2023-07-02 Kairat W 2-149.5 1358 1394 38.06% 26.80% 35.14%+0.04 +7.7 25
2023-07-02 @ Kyzylzhar L 1-249.5 1394 1358 35.14% 26.80% 38.06%-0.04 -7.7 24
2023-07-10 Ordabasy L 0-435.6 1324 1439 27.61% 26.30% 46.08%-0.30 -24.1 14
2023-07-10 @ Okzhetpes W 4-035.6 1439 1324 46.08% 26.30% 27.61%+0.30 +24.1 38
2023-07-15 Aktobe L 0-140.2 1310 1427 27.31% 26.27% 46.42%-0.31 -6.7 15
2023-07-15 @ Shakter Karagandy W 1-040.2 1427 1310 46.42% 26.27% 27.31%+0.31 +6.7 31
2023-07-15 Kairat L 0-140.7 1300 1387 31.10% 26.63% 42.26%-0.18 -7.4 14
2023-07-15 @ Okzhetpes W 1-040.7 1387 1300 42.26% 26.63% 31.10%+0.18 +7.4 27
2023-07-15 Kaisar D 2-260.6 1264 1306 37.13% 26.81% 36.06%+0.02 -0.0 11
2023-07-15 @ Makhtaaral D 2-260.6 1306 1264 36.06% 26.81% 37.13%-0.02 +0.0 20
2023-07-15 Ordabasy D 1-157.0 1321 1463 24.52% 25.82% 49.66%-0.42 +1.2 22
2023-07-15 @ Atyrau D 1-157.0 1463 1321 49.66% 25.82% 24.52%+0.42 -1.2 39
2023-07-16 Zhetysu L 1-249.9 1249 1239 44.45% 26.47% 29.08%+0.25 -9.2 10
2023-07-16 @ Caspiy W 2-149.9 1239 1249 29.08% 26.47% 44.45%-0.25 +9.2 19
2023-07-22 Aksu D 1-153.9 1248 1224 46.23% 26.29% 27.48%+0.30 -0.8 20
2023-07-22 @ Zhetysu D 1-153.9 1224 1248 27.48% 26.29% 46.23%-0.30 +0.9 8
2023-07-22 Atyrau D 0-052.4 1462 1322 60.02% 23.35% 16.63%+0.81 -2.4 39
2023-07-22 @ Astana D 0-052.4 1322 1462 16.63% 23.35% 60.02%-0.81 +2.4 23
2023-07-22 Kaisar W 1-036.5 1434 1306 58.70% 23.76% 17.54%+0.76 +4.5 34
2023-07-22 @ Aktobe L 0-136.5 1306 1434 17.54% 23.76% 58.70%-0.76 -4.5 20
2023-07-22 Kyzylzhar W 2-146.0 1462 1366 55.16% 24.72% 20.12%+0.62 +4.8 42
2023-07-22 @ Ordabasy L 1-246.0 1366 1462 20.12% 24.72% 55.16%-0.62 -4.8 25
2023-07-23 Caspiy W 1-036.9 1303 1240 51.34% 25.53% 23.13%+0.48 +5.8 18
2023-07-23 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-136.9 1240 1303 23.13% 25.53% 51.34%-0.48 -5.8 10
2023-07-23 Makhtaaral D 2-262.2 1394 1264 58.98% 23.68% 17.35%+0.77 -1.5 28
2023-07-23 @ Kairat D 2-262.2 1264 1394 17.35% 23.68% 58.98%-0.77 +1.5 12
2023-07-23 Okzhetpes W 2-033.2 1368 1293 52.68% 25.27% 22.04%+0.53 +10.5 26
2023-07-23 @ Tobol L 0-233.2 1293 1368 22.04% 25.27% 52.68%-0.53 -10.5 14
2023-07-29 Astana W 1-046.9 1361 1460 29.56% 26.51% 43.93%-0.23 +9.6 28
2023-07-29 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-146.9 1460 1361 43.93% 26.51% 29.56%+0.23 -9.6 39
2023-07-29 Kairat D 0-049.9 1302 1393 30.51% 26.59% 42.90%-0.20 +0.6 21
2023-07-29 @ Kaisar D 0-049.9 1393 1302 42.90% 26.59% 30.51%+0.20 -0.6 29
2023-07-29 Shakter Karagandy W 2-149.4 1225 1309 31.38% 26.65% 41.97%-0.17 +8.8 11
2023-07-29 @ Aksu L 1-249.4 1309 1225 41.97% 26.65% 31.38%+0.17 -8.8 18
2023-07-30 Aktobe D 2-262.2 1234 1438 18.74% 24.24% 57.02%-0.69 +1.4 11
2023-07-30 @ Caspiy D 2-262.2 1438 1234 57.02% 24.24% 18.74%+0.69 -1.4 35
2023-07-30 Zhetysu L 0-145.9 1324 1247 52.99% 25.21% 21.80%+0.54 -11.2 23
2023-07-30 @ Atyrau W 1-045.9 1247 1324 21.80% 25.21% 52.99%-0.54 +11.2 23
2023-08-05 Aksu W 3-141.4 1235 1234 43.26% 26.57% 30.17%+0.21 +11.8 14
2023-08-05 @ Caspiy L 1-341.4 1234 1235 30.17% 26.57% 43.26%-0.21 -11.8 11
2023-08-05 Atyrau D 2-261.0 1300 1313 41.32% 26.69% 31.99%+0.15 -0.3 19
2023-08-05 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-261.0 1313 1300 31.99% 26.69% 41.32%-0.15 +0.3 24
2023-08-05 Kyzylzhar D 1-154.7 1258 1371 27.83% 26.33% 45.84%-0.29 +0.8 24
2023-08-05 @ Zhetysu D 1-154.7 1371 1258 45.84% 26.33% 27.83%+0.29 -0.8 29
2023-08-06 Kairat W 4-247.1 1437 1392 49.02% 25.92% 25.06%+0.40 +9.1 38
2023-08-06 @ Aktobe L 2-447.1 1392 1437 25.06% 25.92% 49.02%-0.40 -9.1 29
2023-08-06 Kaisar L 0-242.6 1378 1302 52.83% 25.24% 21.93%+0.53 -21.1 26
2023-08-06 @ Tobol W 2-042.6 1302 1378 21.93% 25.24% 52.83%-0.53 +21.1 24
2023-08-12 Caspiy W 1-036.9 1313 1247 51.67% 25.47% 22.86%+0.49 +5.8 27
2023-08-12 @ Atyrau L 0-136.9 1247 1313 22.86% 25.47% 51.67%-0.49 -5.8 14
2023-08-12 Zhetysu W 2-145.0 1282 1259 46.23% 26.29% 27.49%+0.30 +6.3 17
2023-08-12 @ Okzhetpes L 1-245.0 1259 1282 27.49% 26.29% 46.23%-0.30 -6.3 24
2023-08-13 Aktobe D 1-155.9 1222 1446 17.23% 23.62% 59.15%-0.78 +2.0 12
2023-08-13 @ Aksu D 1-155.9 1446 1222 59.15% 23.62% 17.23%+0.78 -2.0 39
2023-08-13 Ordabasy L 2-351.9 1323 1467 24.40% 25.80% 49.80%-0.42 -5.4 24
2023-08-13 @ Kaisar W 3-251.9 1467 1323 49.80% 25.80% 24.40%+0.42 +5.4 45
2023-08-13 Shakter Karagandy D 1-155.4 1370 1300 52.09% 25.39% 22.52%+0.51 -1.4 30
2023-08-13 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-155.4 1300 1370 22.52% 25.39% 52.09%-0.51 +1.4 20
2023-08-13 Tobol W 3-034.5 1383 1357 46.50% 26.26% 27.24%+0.31 +18.3 32
2023-08-13 @ Kairat L 0-334.5 1357 1383 27.24% 26.26% 46.50%-0.31 -18.3 26
2023-08-19 Atyrau W 4-142.8 1224 1319 29.97% 26.55% 43.48%-0.21 +22.0 15
2023-08-19 @ Aksu L 1-442.8 1319 1224 43.48% 26.55% 29.97%+0.21 -22.0 27
2023-08-19 Kyzylzhar L 1-244.9 1241 1369 26.14% 26.10% 47.76%-0.35 -6.1 14
2023-08-19 @ Caspiy W 2-144.9 1369 1241 47.76% 26.10% 26.14%+0.35 +6.1 33
2023-08-19 Okzhetpes W 2-035.0 1302 1289 44.79% 26.44% 28.77%+0.26 +13.1 23
2023-08-19 @ Shakter Karagandy L 0-235.0 1289 1302 28.77% 26.44% 44.79%-0.26 -13.1 17
2023-08-20 Kairat W 1-041.5 1472 1401 52.25% 25.36% 22.39%+0.51 +5.7 48
2023-08-20 @ Ordabasy L 0-141.5 1401 1472 22.39% 25.36% 52.25%-0.51 -5.6 32
2023-08-20 Kaisar D 1-157.3 1450 1318 59.17% 23.62% 17.21%+0.78 -2.0 40
2023-08-20 @ Astana D 1-157.3 1318 1450 17.21% 23.62% 59.17%-0.78 +2.0 25
2023-08-20 Makhtaaral L 0-142.6 1253 1265 41.33% 26.69% 31.98%+0.15 -9.2 24
2023-08-20 @ Zhetysu W 1-042.6 1265 1253 31.98% 26.69% 41.33%-0.15 +9.2 15
2023-08-20 Tobol D 1-157.4 1444 1339 56.20% 24.46% 19.34%+0.66 -1.8 40
2023-08-20 @ Aktobe D 1-157.4 1339 1444 19.34% 24.46% 56.20%-0.66 +1.8 27
2023-08-26 Caspiy D 3-364.1 1276 1235 48.43% 26.01% 25.57%+0.38 -0.7 18
2023-08-26 @ Okzhetpes D 3-364.1 1235 1276 25.57% 26.01% 48.43%-0.38 +0.7 15
2023-08-26 Shakter Karagandy W 3-143.6 1274 1315 37.43% 26.81% 35.76%+0.03 +13.4 18
2023-08-26 @ Makhtaaral L 1-343.6 1315 1274 35.76% 26.81% 37.43%-0.03 -13.4 23
2023-08-26 Zhetysu D 1-154.6 1320 1243 52.89% 25.23% 21.88%+0.53 -1.5 26
2023-08-26 @ Kaisar D 1-154.6 1243 1320 21.88% 25.23% 52.89%-0.53 +1.5 25
2023-08-27 Aksu W 1-035.1 1375 1246 58.80% 23.73% 17.47%+0.76 +4.5 36
2023-08-27 @ Kyzylzhar L 0-135.1 1246 1375 17.47% 23.73% 58.80%-0.76 -4.5 15
2023-08-27 Aktobe D 0-050.8 1297 1442 24.23% 25.77% 50.01%-0.43 +1.3 28
2023-08-27 @ Atyrau D 0-050.8 1442 1297 50.01% 25.77% 24.23%+0.43 -1.3 41
2023-08-27 Astana W 1-045.7 1395 1448 35.66% 26.81% 37.54%-0.03 +8.5 35
2023-08-27 @ Kairat L 0-145.7 1448 1395 37.54% 26.81% 35.66%+0.03 -8.5 40
2023-08-27 Ordabasy D 0-052.4 1341 1478 25.07% 25.92% 49.01%-0.40 +1.2 28
2023-08-27 @ Tobol D 0-052.4 1478 1341 49.01% 25.92% 25.07%+0.40 -1.2 49
2023-09-15 Makhtaaral L 0-236.8 1236 1288 35.75% 26.81% 37.45%-0.03 -15.5 15
2023-09-15 @ Caspiy W 2-036.8 1288 1236 37.45% 26.81% 35.75%+0.03 +15.5 21
2023-09-15 Okzhetpes L 0-141.7 1242 1275 38.41% 26.79% 34.80%+0.06 -8.7 15
2023-09-15 @ Aksu W 1-041.7 1275 1242 34.80% 26.79% 38.41%-0.06 +8.7 21
2023-09-16 Kyzylzhar D 0-049.7 1298 1379 31.82% 26.68% 41.50%-0.15 +0.5 29
2023-09-16 @ Atyrau D 0-049.7 1379 1298 41.50% 26.68% 31.82%+0.15 -0.5 37
2023-09-16 Ordabasy W 2-153.8 1441 1477 38.07% 26.80% 35.13%+0.04 +7.7 44
2023-09-16 @ Aktobe L 1-253.8 1477 1441 35.13% 26.80% 38.07%-0.04 -7.7 49
2023-09-16 Tobol W 2-144.9 1440 1342 55.34% 24.67% 19.98%+0.63 +4.8 43
2023-09-16 @ Astana L 1-244.9 1342 1440 19.98% 24.67% 55.34%-0.63 -4.8 28
2023-09-17 Kairat L 1-244.0 1245 1404 22.82% 25.46% 51.72%-0.49 -5.4 25
2023-09-17 @ Zhetysu W 2-144.0 1404 1245 51.72% 25.46% 22.82%+0.49 +5.4 38
2023-09-17 Kaisar D 2-261.0 1301 1319 40.68% 26.72% 32.60%+0.13 -0.3 24
2023-09-17 @ Shakter Karagandy D 2-261.0 1319 1301 32.60% 26.72% 40.68%-0.13 +0.3 27
2023-09-23 Aksu W 2-032.5 1303 1233 52.15% 25.38% 22.47%+0.51 +10.7 24
2023-09-23 @ Makhtaaral L 0-232.5 1233 1303 22.47% 25.38% 52.15%-0.51 -10.7 15
2023-09-23 Aktobe D 0-052.3 1379 1449 33.27% 26.75% 39.98%-0.10 +0.3 38
2023-09-23 @ Kyzylzhar D 0-052.3 1449 1379 39.98% 26.75% 33.27%+0.10 -0.3 45
2023-09-23 Caspiy W 3-138.0 1319 1220 55.45% 24.65% 19.90%+0.63 +8.3 30
2023-09-23 @ Kaisar L 1-338.0 1220 1319 19.90% 24.65% 55.45%-0.63 -8.3 15
2023-09-23 Shakter Karagandy D 0-050.8 1409 1301 56.57% 24.36% 19.07%+0.67 -2.0 39
2023-09-23 @ Kairat D 0-050.8 1301 1409 19.07% 24.36% 56.57%-0.67 +2.0 25
2023-09-24 Astana L 1-256.9 1469 1444 46.38% 26.27% 27.35%+0.31 -9.5 49
2023-09-24 @ Ordabasy W 2-156.9 1444 1469 27.35% 26.27% 46.38%-0.31 +9.5 46
2023-09-24 Atyrau D 0-048.9 1284 1299 40.96% 26.71% 32.33%+0.13 -0.4 22
2023-09-24 @ Okzhetpes D 0-048.9 1299 1284 32.33% 26.71% 40.96%-0.13 +0.4 30
2023-09-24 Zhetysu L 1-253.0 1337 1240 55.35% 24.67% 19.97%+0.63 -11.0 28
2023-09-24 @ Tobol W 2-153.0 1240 1337 19.97% 24.67% 55.35%-0.63 +11.0 28
2023-09-27 Makhtaaral W 1-036.6 1460 1314 60.59% 23.16% 16.25%+0.84 +4.2 52
2023-09-27 @ Ordabasy L 0-136.6 1314 1460 16.25% 23.16% 60.59%-0.84 -4.2 24
2023-09-27 Okzhetpes W 5-236.8 1454 1283 63.13% 22.27% 14.60%+0.94 +7.5 49
2023-09-27 @ Astana L 2-536.8 1283 1454 14.60% 22.27% 63.13%-0.94 -7.5 22
2023-09-27 Tobol D 1-155.7 1379 1326 50.00% 25.77% 24.24%+0.43 -1.2 39
2023-09-27 @ Kyzylzhar D 1-155.7 1326 1379 24.24% 25.77% 50.00%-0.43 +1.2 29
2023-09-30 Astana W 2-041.9 1448 1461 41.28% 26.69% 32.03%+0.14 +14.3 48
2023-09-30 @ Aktobe L 0-241.9 1461 1448 32.03% 26.69% 41.28%-0.14 -14.3 49
2023-09-30 Tobol W 2-147.5 1303 1327 39.68% 26.76% 33.56%+0.09 +7.4 28
2023-09-30 @ Shakter Karagandy L 1-247.5 1327 1303 33.56% 26.76% 39.68%-0.09 -7.4 29
2023-10-01 Kairat D 1-155.2 1212 1407 19.50% 24.51% 55.98%-0.65 +1.8 16
2023-10-01 @ Caspiy D 1-155.2 1407 1212 55.98% 24.51% 19.50%+0.65 -1.8 40
2023-10-01 Kaisar W 2-039.5 1222 1327 28.78% 26.44% 44.79%-0.26 +18.4 18
2023-10-01 @ Aksu L 0-239.5 1327 1222 44.79% 26.44% 28.78%+0.26 -18.4 30
2023-10-01 Makhtaaral W 2-036.0 1299 1310 41.63% 26.67% 31.70%+0.16 +14.2 33
2023-10-01 @ Atyrau L 0-236.0 1310 1299 31.70% 26.67% 41.63%-0.16 -14.2 24
2023-10-01 Okzhetpes L 1-253.7 1378 1276 55.86% 24.55% 19.59%+0.65 -11.1 39
2023-10-01 @ Kyzylzhar W 2-153.7 1276 1378 19.59% 24.55% 55.86%-0.65 +11.1 25
2023-10-01 Ordabasy L 1-242.9 1250 1464 18.05% 23.97% 57.98%-0.73 -4.4 28
2023-10-01 @ Zhetysu W 2-142.9 1464 1250 57.98% 23.97% 18.05%+0.73 +4.4 55
2023-10-05 Tobol D 1-154.5 1296 1320 39.70% 26.76% 33.54%+0.10 -0.3 25
2023-10-05 @ Makhtaaral D 1-154.5 1320 1296 33.54% 26.76% 39.70%-0.10 +0.3 30
2023-10-21 Aksu W 4-133.7 1406 1241 62.57% 22.48% 14.95%+0.92 +8.9 43
2023-10-21 @ Kairat L 1-433.7 1241 1406 14.95% 22.48% 62.57%-0.92 -8.9 18
2023-10-21 Caspiy D 1-154.7 1320 1214 56.35% 24.42% 19.23%+0.66 -1.8 31
2023-10-21 @ Tobol D 1-154.7 1214 1320 19.23% 24.42% 56.35%-0.66 +1.8 17
2023-10-21 Kyzylzhar W 2-149.8 1295 1367 33.06% 26.74% 40.19%-0.11 +8.5 28
2023-10-21 @ Makhtaaral L 1-249.8 1367 1295 40.19% 26.74% 33.06%+0.11 -8.5 39
2023-10-21 Zhetysu W 2-140.2 1447 1246 66.06% 21.11% 12.83%+1.08 +3.1 52
2023-10-21 @ Astana L 1-240.2 1246 1447 12.83% 21.11% 66.06%-1.08 -3.1 28
2023-10-22 Aktobe D 1-156.6 1287 1463 21.23% 25.05% 53.72%-0.56 +1.5 26
2023-10-22 @ Okzhetpes D 1-156.6 1463 1287 53.72% 25.05% 21.23%+0.56 -1.5 49
2023-10-22 Atyrau W 1-040.0 1309 1314 42.40% 26.63% 30.98%+0.18 +7.4 33
2023-10-22 @ Kaisar L 0-140.0 1314 1309 30.98% 26.63% 42.40%-0.18 -7.4 33
2023-10-22 Shakter Karagandy W 3-138.6 1468 1310 61.84% 22.74% 15.42%+0.89 +6.4 58
2023-10-22 @ Ordabasy L 1-338.6 1310 1468 15.42% 22.74% 61.84%-0.89 -6.5 28
2023-10-29 Astana D 1-156.4 1304 1450 24.12% 25.74% 50.14%-0.44 +1.2 29
2023-10-29 @ Shakter Karagandy D 1-156.4 1450 1304 50.14% 25.74% 24.12%+0.44 -1.2 53
2023-10-29 Kairat D 0-050.3 1306 1414 28.36% 26.39% 45.25%-0.27 +0.9 34
2023-10-29 @ Atyrau D 0-050.3 1414 1306 45.25% 26.39% 28.36%+0.27 -0.9 44
2023-10-29 Kaisar L 0-145.6 1358 1316 48.66% 25.97% 25.37%+0.39 -10.5 39
2023-10-29 @ Kyzylzhar W 1-045.6 1316 1358 25.37% 25.97% 48.66%-0.39 +10.5 36
2023-10-29 Makhtaaral D 1-154.3 1288 1304 40.93% 26.71% 32.36%+0.13 -0.4 27
2023-10-29 @ Okzhetpes D 1-154.3 1304 1288 32.36% 26.71% 40.93%-0.13 +0.4 29
2023-10-29 Ordabasy W 1-049.0 1216 1475 14.83% 22.41% 62.76%-0.93 +12.9 20
2023-10-29 @ Caspiy L 0-149.0 1475 1216 62.76% 22.41% 14.83%+0.93 -12.9 58
2023-10-29 Tobol L 0-333.9 1232 1318 31.05% 26.63% 42.32%-0.18 -20.3 18
2023-10-29 @ Aksu W 3-033.9 1318 1232 42.32% 26.63% 31.05%+0.18 +20.3 34
2023-10-29 Zhetysu D 2-263.7 1461 1243 67.64% 20.43% 11.93%+1.15 -2.1 50
2023-10-29 @ Aktobe D 2-263.7 1243 1461 11.93% 20.43% 67.64%-1.15 +2.1 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-10-29 14.83% @ Caspiy 1216 1 Ordabasy 1475 0
2 2023-04-09 17.60% Zhetysu 1258 3 @ Kairat 1385 2
3 2023-05-21 18.36% Kaisar 1302 3 @ Kairat 1419 0
4 2023-10-01 19.59% Okzhetpes 1276 2 @ Kyzylzhar 1378 1
5 2023-09-24 19.97% Zhetysu 1240 2 @ Tobol 1337 1
6 2023-06-04 21.44% Makhtaaral 1246 2 @ Kaisar 1327 0
7 2023-04-16 21.62% Kairat 1374 3 @ Astana 1453 0
8 2023-07-30 21.80% Zhetysu 1247 1 @ Atyrau 1324 0
9 2023-08-06 21.93% Kaisar 1302 2 @ Tobol 1378 0
10 2023-03-14 22.22% Aktobe 1386 4 @ Astana 1459 1
11 2023-05-27 22.90% @ Makhtaaral 1228 3 Kairat 1386 1
12 2023-06-24 22.91% Zhetysu 1241 1 @ Shakter Karagandy 1307 0
13 2023-10-29 25.37% Kaisar 1316 1 @ Kyzylzhar 1358 0
14 2023-04-02 25.85% Kyzylzhar 1374 3 @ Aktobe 1412 1
15 2023-04-15 26.77% @ Caspiy 1243 2 Okzhetpes 1364 1
16 2023-09-24 27.35% Astana 1444 2 @ Ordabasy 1469 1
17 2023-06-25 27.99% Kaisar 1306 1 @ Okzhetpes 1325 0
18 2023-10-01 28.78% @ Aksu 1222 2 Kaisar 1327 0
19 2023-07-16 29.08% Zhetysu 1239 2 @ Caspiy 1249 1
20 2023-04-02 29.38% Okzhetpes 1314 4 @ Atyrau 1321 0
21 2023-07-29 29.56% @ Kyzylzhar 1361 1 Astana 1460 0
22 2023-04-22 29.60% Zhetysu 1252 2 @ Makhtaaral 1258 1
23 2023-05-07 29.89% @ Shakter Karagandy 1310 1 Kyzylzhar 1406 0
24 2023-08-19 29.97% @ Aksu 1224 4 Atyrau 1319 1
25 2023-07-01 30.27% Okzhetpes 1315 1 @ Kaisar 1316 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-04-02 34.55 Okzhetpes 4 1314 29.38% @ Atyrau 0 1321 44.12% 26.50%
2 2023-05-21 32.97 Kaisar 3 1302 18.36% @ Kairat 0 1419 57.54% 24.10%
3 2023-04-16 30.86 Kairat 3 1374 21.62% @ Astana 0 1453 53.22% 25.16%
4 2023-03-14 25.71 Aktobe 4 1386 22.22% @ Astana 1 1459 52.46% 25.32%
5 2023-06-24 25.49 @ Atyrau 3 1302 31.26% Tobol 0 1387 42.09% 26.65%
6 2023-05-20 25.07 Atyrau 3 1280 32.10% @ Zhetysu 0 1266 41.21% 26.69%
7 2023-07-10 24.12 Ordabasy 4 1439 46.08% @ Okzhetpes 0 1324 27.61% 26.30%
8 2023-08-19 22.05 @ Aksu 4 1224 29.97% Atyrau 1 1319 43.48% 26.55%
9 2023-06-04 21.33 Makhtaaral 2 1246 21.44% @ Kaisar 0 1327 53.45% 25.11%
10 2023-08-06 21.12 Kaisar 2 1302 21.93% @ Tobol 0 1378 52.83% 25.24%
11 2023-03-09 20.59 Ordabasy 4 1345 33.44% @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1321 39.80% 26.76%
12 2023-05-06 20.28 @ Ordabasy 4 1383 52.14% Kaisar 0 1313 22.48% 25.38%
13 2023-10-29 20.26 Tobol 3 1318 42.32% @ Aksu 0 1232 31.05% 26.63%
14 2023-06-24 20.20 @ Kairat 3 1374 42.45% Kyzylzhar 0 1379 30.93% 26.62%
15 2023-03-09 20.01 @ Aktobe 5 1366 46.26% Okzhetpes 1 1342 27.46% 26.28%
16 2023-04-15 19.10 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1290 44.75% Makhtaaral 0 1277 28.81% 26.44%
17 2023-04-16 18.98 @ Ordabasy 4 1364 37.50% Tobol 1 1403 35.69% 26.81%
18 2023-10-01 18.43 @ Aksu 2 1222 28.78% Kaisar 0 1327 44.79% 26.44%
19 2023-08-13 18.26 @ Kairat 3 1383 46.50% Tobol 0 1357 27.24% 26.26%
20 2023-05-27 17.94 @ Makhtaaral 3 1228 22.90% Kairat 1 1386 51.62% 25.48%
21 2023-04-16 17.12 @ Aktobe 4 1395 57.08% Atyrau 0 1282 18.69% 24.22%
22 2023-04-02 16.91 Kyzylzhar 3 1374 25.85% @ Aktobe 1 1412 48.09% 26.05%
23 2023-04-15 16.31 Kaisar 2 1303 34.95% @ Zhetysu 0 1269 38.26% 26.80%
24 2023-04-08 16.24 @ Okzhetpes 3 1348 50.67% Aksu 0 1290 23.68% 25.65%
25 2023-09-15 15.52 Makhtaaral 2 1288 37.45% @ Caspiy 0 1236 35.75% 26.81%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-08-26 64.1 @ Okzhetpes 3 1276 48.43% Caspiy 3 1235 25.57% 26.01%
2 2023-10-29 63.7 @ Aktobe 2 1461 67.64% Zhetysu 2 1243 11.93% 20.43%
3 2023-04-23 63.5 @ Tobol 2 1384 39.22% Aktobe 2 1412 34.01% 26.77%
4 2023-04-23 63.4 @ Kairat 2 1405 46.03% Ordabasy 2 1383 27.66% 26.31%
5 2023-07-23 62.2 @ Kairat 2 1394 58.98% Makhtaaral 2 1264 17.35% 23.68%
6 2023-07-30 62.2 @ Caspiy 2 1234 18.74% Aktobe 2 1438 57.02% 24.24%
7 2023-03-05 61.8 @ Kairat 2 1365 50.86% Atyrau 2 1305 23.52% 25.62%
8 2023-08-05 61.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1300 41.32% Atyrau 2 1313 31.99% 26.69%
9 2023-09-17 61.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1301 40.68% Kaisar 2 1319 32.60% 26.72%
10 2023-03-14 60.7 @ Kaisar 2 1282 42.90% Aksu 2 1283 30.51% 26.59%
11 2023-07-15 60.6 @ Makhtaaral 2 1264 37.13% Kaisar 2 1306 36.06% 26.81%
12 2023-04-09 59.4 Zhetysu 3 1258 17.60% @ Kairat 2 1385 58.61% 23.79%
13 2023-08-20 57.4 @ Aktobe 1 1444 56.20% Tobol 1 1339 19.34% 24.46%
14 2023-08-20 57.3 @ Astana 1 1450 59.17% Kaisar 1 1318 17.21% 23.62%
15 2023-07-15 57.0 @ Atyrau 1 1321 24.52% Ordabasy 1 1463 49.66% 25.82%
16 2023-05-06 56.9 Kairat 3 1404 32.93% @ Tobol 2 1384 40.33% 26.74%
17 2023-09-24 56.9 Astana 2 1444 27.35% @ Ordabasy 1 1469 46.38% 26.27%
18 2023-10-22 56.6 @ Okzhetpes 1 1287 21.23% Aktobe 1 1463 53.72% 25.05%
19 2023-06-25 56.4 @ Aktobe 1 1424 61.76% Makhtaaral 1 1267 15.48% 22.77%
20 2023-10-29 56.4 @ Shakter Karagandy 1 1304 24.12% Astana 1 1450 50.14% 25.74%
21 2023-04-09 56.2 @ Ordabasy 1 1364 38.75% Aktobe 1 1395 34.46% 26.79%
22 2023-04-22 56.0 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1408 61.65% Caspiy 1 1252 15.55% 22.80%
23 2023-08-13 55.9 @ Aksu 1 1222 17.23% Aktobe 1 1446 59.15% 23.62%
24 2023-09-27 55.7 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1379 50.00% Tobol 1 1326 24.24% 25.77%
25 2023-08-13 55.4 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1370 52.09% Shakter Karagandy 1 1300 22.52% 25.39%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-07-02 29.1 @ Ordabasy 2 1433 66.23% Aksu 0 1230 12.73% 21.04%
2 2023-05-06 29.9 @ Astana 2 1429 64.03% Makhtaaral 0 1249 14.04% 21.93%
3 2023-04-16 31.1 @ Aktobe 4 1395 57.08% Atyrau 0 1282 18.69% 24.22%
4 2023-03-14 32.0 @ Ordabasy 2 1365 55.56% Zhetysu 0 1266 19.82% 24.62%
5 2023-04-08 32.0 @ Okzhetpes 3 1348 50.67% Aksu 0 1290 23.68% 25.65%
6 2023-09-23 32.5 @ Makhtaaral 2 1303 52.15% Aksu 0 1233 22.47% 25.38%
7 2023-05-06 32.8 @ Ordabasy 4 1383 52.14% Kaisar 0 1313 22.48% 25.38%
8 2023-07-23 33.2 @ Tobol 2 1368 52.68% Okzhetpes 0 1293 22.04% 25.27%
9 2023-04-15 33.3 @ Shakter Karagandy 3 1290 44.75% Makhtaaral 0 1277 28.81% 26.44%
10 2023-06-03 33.3 @ Astana 1 1449 66.96% Aksu 0 1238 12.31% 20.73%
11 2023-06-03 33.3 @ Aktobe 2 1414 55.33% Shakter Karagandy 0 1317 19.99% 24.68%
12 2023-10-21 33.7 @ Kairat 4 1406 62.57% Aksu 1 1241 14.95% 22.48%
13 2023-03-09 33.8 Astana 2 1449 53.33% @ Zhetysu 0 1276 21.54% 25.14%
14 2023-10-29 33.9 Tobol 3 1318 42.32% @ Aksu 0 1232 31.05% 26.63%
15 2023-08-13 34.5 @ Kairat 3 1383 46.50% Tobol 0 1357 27.24% 26.26%
16 2023-05-21 34.8 @ Tobol 1 1367 59.44% Makhtaaral 0 1232 17.02% 23.53%
17 2023-04-16 34.9 Kyzylzhar 2 1396 47.05% @ Aksu 0 1274 26.76% 26.19%
18 2023-08-19 35.0 @ Shakter Karagandy 2 1302 44.79% Okzhetpes 0 1289 28.77% 26.44%
19 2023-08-27 35.1 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1375 58.80% Aksu 0 1246 17.47% 23.73%
20 2023-05-13 35.6 @ Kyzylzhar 1 1396 58.44% Zhetysu 0 1271 17.73% 23.84%
21 2023-07-10 35.6 Ordabasy 4 1439 46.08% @ Okzhetpes 0 1324 27.61% 26.30%
22 2023-06-24 36.0 @ Kairat 3 1374 42.45% Kyzylzhar 0 1379 30.93% 26.62%
23 2023-10-01 36.0 @ Atyrau 2 1299 41.63% Makhtaaral 0 1310 31.70% 26.67%
24 2023-04-02 36.1 @ Astana 2 1433 50.66% Ordabasy 0 1375 23.68% 25.65%
25 2023-05-24 36.1 Astana 1 1446 57.57% @ Aksu 0 1236 18.34% 24.09%