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1993-94 A Lyga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Romar Mazeikiai

7.23 points above expected

37 points · 29.77 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Neris Vilnius

5.75 points below expected

10 points · 15.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 22 17 3 2 37 57 13 +44 32.43 +4.57
2 Romar Mazeikiai 22 16 5 1 37 53 10 +43 29.77 +7.23
3 Ekranas 22 13 5 4 31 48 12 +36 32.72 -1.72
4 Panerys 22 12 5 5 29 35 17 +18 29.30 -0.30
5 FBK Kaunas 22 12 4 6 28 31 18 +13 23.24 +4.76
6 PSK Aras Klaipeda 22 6 9 7 21 31 27 +4 23.30 -2.30
7 Sirijus Klaipeda 22 7 5 10 19 25 31 -6 20.71 -1.71
8 Inkaras Kaunas 22 4 8 10 16 22 34 -12 17.24 -1.24
9 Sakalas Siauliai 22 6 3 13 15 22 50 -28 13.28 +1.72
10 Gelezinis Vilkas 22 3 7 12 13 14 50 -36 14.87 -1.87
11 Neris Vilnius 22 1 8 13 10 12 46 -34 15.75 -5.75
12 Tauras-Karsuva 22 2 4 16 8 13 55 -42 11.39 -3.39

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Romar Mazeikiai 37 29.77 +7.23
2 FBK Kaunas 28 23.24 +4.76
3 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 37 32.43 +4.57
4 Sakalas Siauliai 15 13.28 +1.72
5 Panerys 29 29.30 -0.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Neris Vilnius 10 15.75 -5.75
2 Tauras-Karsuva 8 11.39 -3.39
3 PSK Aras Klaipeda 21 23.30 -2.30
4 Gelezinis Vilkas 13 14.87 -1.87
5 Ekranas 31 32.72 -1.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FBK Kaunas 5 Apr 9 – May 4 1 in 59
2 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 7 Oct 2 – Apr 2 1 in 31
3 Sakalas Siauliai 3 May 13 – May 29 1 in 27
4 Romar Mazeikiai 4 Jul 29 – Sep 6 1 in 10
5 Tauras-Karsuva 1 Aug 29 – Aug 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tauras-Karsuva 7 Apr 24 – May 29 1 in 39
2 Gelezinis Vilkas 3 Aug 7 – Aug 29 1 in 19
3 Ekranas 2 May 4 – May 8 1 in 15
4 Neris Vilnius 3 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 9
5 Inkaras Kaunas 5 Oct 15 – Apr 2 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Romar Mazeikiai 16 Sep 26 – May 29 1 in 41
2 Gelezinis Vilkas 5 Apr 29 – May 20 1 in 36
3 FBK Kaunas 5 Oct 3 – Mar 26 1 in 10
4 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 16 Oct 2 – May 29 1 in 10
5 PSK Aras Klaipeda 6 Aug 7 – Sep 26 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ekranas 4 May 4 – May 20 1 in 36
2 Neris Vilnius 12 Jul 29 – Mar 26 1 in 32
3 PSK Aras Klaipeda 6 Sep 26 – Mar 26 1 in 10
4 Inkaras Kaunas 11 Oct 2 – May 3 1 in 9
5 Tauras-Karsuva 14 Oct 14 – May 29 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1225 37 +40 9 7.6 +1.4
Romar Mazeikiai 1171 37 +27 8 6.4 +1.6
Ekranas 1148 31 -47 4 7.2 -3.2
Panerys 1017 29 -21 6 6.4 -0.4
FBK Kaunas 1043 28 +80 8 5.0 +3.0
PSK Aras Klaipeda 908 21 -7 4 4.6 -0.6
Sirijus Klaipeda 826 19 -26 2 3.4 -1.4
Inkaras Kaunas 771 16 +15 5 5.7 -0.7
Sakalas Siauliai 777 15 +121 7 4.2 +2.8
Gelezinis Vilkas 678 13 +19 5 3.2 +1.8
Neris Vilnius 574 10 -124 2 3.8 -1.8
Tauras-Karsuva 518 8 -76 0 2.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team EKR FK GV IK NV PAK PAN RM SS SK TAU ZV
Ekranas —
1-0-1
4.10
1-1-0
4.83
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.76
0-2-0
4.08
1-1-0
3.64
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
4.94
1-0-1
4.55
2-0-0
4.92
0-1-1
2.80
FBK Kaunas
1-0-1
1.39
—
1-1-0
3.93
1-0-1
3.65
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
1.76
0-1-1
1.50
2-0-0
3.90
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
4.43
0-0-2
1.55
Gelezinis Vilkas
0-1-1
0.71
0-1-1
1.55
—
0-2-0
2.29
1-1-0
2.46
0-0-2
1.57
0-1-1
0.87
0-0-2
1.28
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
1.45
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
0.67
Inkaras Kaunas
0-0-2
0.90
1-0-1
1.83
0-2-0
3.19
—
1-1-0
3.19
0-2-0
1.93
0-1-1
1.05
0-1-1
1.08
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-2
1.98
1-1-0
3.51
0-0-2
0.85
Neris Vilnius
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-2
1.68
0-1-1
3.01
0-1-1
2.28
—
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
0.96
0-2-0
0.92
0-1-1
2.98
0-2-0
2.06
1-1-0
3.40
0-0-2
0.84
PSK Aras Klaipeda
0-2-0
1.41
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.91
0-2-0
3.55
2-0-0
3.73
—
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
1.76
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
2.86
0-2-0
4.15
0-0-2
1.34
Panerys
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
3.72
1-1-0
4.65
1-1-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.55
1-1-0
3.47
—
0-0-2
2.53
2-0-0
4.53
1-1-0
4.18
2-0-0
4.76
1-0-1
1.86
Romar Mazeikiai
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.24
1-1-0
4.42
0-2-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
2.95
—
2-0-0
4.60
2-0-0
4.33
2-0-0
4.90
1-1-0
2.04
Sakalas Siauliai
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
1.58
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.49
0-1-1
1.39
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
0.92
—
2-0-0
1.33
1-0-1
3.42
0-1-1
0.60
Sirijus Klaipeda
1-0-1
0.96
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-0
4.04
2-0-0
3.50
0-2-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
1.31
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-2
4.16
—
2-0-0
4.06
0-0-2
1.08
Tauras-Karsuva
0-0-2
0.64
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.07
0-2-0
1.35
0-0-2
0.77
0-0-2
0.66
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.43
—
0-0-2
0.63
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius
1-1-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
4.88
2-0-0
4.67
2-0-0
4.68
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.61
0-1-1
3.43
1-1-0
4.96
2-0-0
4.42
2-0-0
4.93
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +6.3
Allowed 0.91 -5.8
Differential 0.97 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%12.50%4.17%4.92%2.65%2.65%32.95%
112.50%13.64%4.92%1.52%1.89%1.52%35.98%
24.17%4.92%5.30%0.38%—0.38%15.15%
34.92%1.52%0.38%———6.82%
42.65%1.89%————4.55%
5+2.65%1.52%0.38%———4.55%
Total32.95%35.98%15.15%6.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.70 1.70 2.71
CV 1.24 1.24 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%————18.18%
122.73%9.09%13.64%———45.45%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
3———————
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total59.09%27.27%13.64%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 0.55 +1.64
SD 2.81 0.74 2.94
CV 1.29 1.35 —
Max 10 2 +10
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%—9.09%——27.27%
113.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%36.36%9.09%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.82 +0.59
SD 1.26 0.96 1.89
CV 0.89 1.17 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%50.00%
19.09%18.18%4.55%——4.55%36.36%
2—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%40.91%18.18%9.09%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.27 -1.64
SD 0.73 2.43 2.70
CV 1.14 1.07 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%—4.55%4.55%40.91%
14.55%18.18%9.09%———31.82%
24.55%—13.64%———18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%36.36%31.82%—4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.55 -0.55
SD 1.11 1.74 2.36
CV 1.11 1.12 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%22.73%4.55%9.09%—4.55%54.55%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%9.09%4.55%36.36%
2——9.09%———9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%36.36%13.64%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 2.09 -1.55
SD 0.67 2.27 2.22
CV 1.23 1.08 —
Max 2 10 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
14.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
2——13.64%——4.55%18.18%
313.64%4.55%————18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%50.00%18.18%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.23 +0.18
SD 1.22 1.15 1.71
CV 0.87 0.94 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
122.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%——54.55%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total45.45%36.36%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 0.77 +0.82
SD 1.47 0.87 1.82
CV 0.92 1.12 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%—4.55%———22.73%
122.73%4.55%————27.27%
2—9.09%————9.09%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total59.09%36.36%4.55%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 0.45 +1.95
SD 2.54 0.60 2.61
CV 1.05 1.31 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%9.09%9.09%—13.64%45.45%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
2—9.09%————9.09%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%22.73%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.27 -1.27
SD 1.31 2.49 3.28
CV 1.31 1.10 —
Max 5 10 +5
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
14.55%18.18%4.55%—4.55%4.55%36.36%
213.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%40.91%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.41 -0.27
SD 1.08 1.50 2.16
CV 0.95 1.07 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%13.64%22.73%—54.55%
19.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
2——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%22.73%18.18%18.18%27.27%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.59 2.50 -1.91
SD 0.73 1.57 1.85
CV 1.24 0.63 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
127.27%9.09%——4.55%—40.91%
2—9.09%————9.09%
313.64%—————13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
Total59.09%31.82%4.55%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.59 0.59 +2.00
SD 2.34 0.96 2.58
CV 0.90 1.62 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1225 37 32.43 +4.57 96.0% 25 26 30 33 35 37 38
Romar Mazeikiai 1171 37 29.77 +7.23 100.0% 22 24 27 30 32 35 37
Ekranas 1148 31 32.72 -1.72 29.0% 24 27 31 33 35 38 39
FBK Kaunas 1043 28 23.24 +4.76 93.0% 15 18 21 23 26 29 32
Panerys 1017 29 29.30 -0.30 54.0% 22 24 27 29 31 34 38
PSK Aras Klaipeda 908 21 23.30 -2.30 28.0% 15 17 20 24 26 28 31
Sirijus Klaipeda 826 19 20.71 -1.71 37.0% 11 14 18 21 23 26 28
Sakalas Siauliai 777 15 13.28 +1.72 78.0% 4 8 11 13 15 18 20
Inkaras Kaunas 771 16 17.24 -1.24 45.0% 9 11 14 17 20 22 24
Gelezinis Vilkas 678 13 14.87 -1.87 37.0% 8 9 13 15 17 21 27
Neris Vilnius 574 10 15.75 -5.75 4.0% 5 11 13 15 18 22 25
Tauras-Karsuva 518 8 11.39 -3.39 18.0% 3 6 9 11 14 16 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.36%
Clear Edge
43.18%25.00%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 39.65 Elo pts.
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.55 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
44%
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.71 * Some Luck: 2.71 to 4.07 * Lucky: 4.07 to 5.42 * Wild Swing: 5.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.9 * Close: 0.9 to 1.34 * Off: 1.34 to 1.79 * Way Off: 1.79 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.65 points
Some Luck
03.398
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.122.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Romar Mazeikiai
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.00%
Neris Vilnius
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 235.94
2.50
Coin-Flip Parity
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
86%
Slight Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.90
Near-Lock
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.64
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.31
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius44.00%25.00%18.00%10.00%3.00%———————
Romar Mazeikiai12.00%26.00%30.00%20.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%—————
Ekranas39.00%31.00%18.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%——————
Panerys5.00%18.00%25.00%36.00%10.00%4.00%2.00%—————
FBK Kaunas——6.00%12.00%28.00%26.00%16.00%9.00%2.00%1.00%——
PSK Aras Klaipeda——3.00%11.00%30.00%27.00%17.00%10.00%1.00%1.00%——
Sirijus Klaipeda———3.00%11.00%26.00%29.00%12.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%—
Inkaras Kaunas————1.00%9.00%22.00%26.00%19.00%8.00%12.00%3.00%
Sakalas Siauliai——————2.00%6.00%18.00%24.00%26.00%24.00%
Gelezinis Vilkas————2.00%—6.00%14.00%16.00%26.00%25.00%11.00%
Neris Vilnius————4.00%3.00%5.00%20.00%25.00%23.00%15.00%5.00%
Tauras-Karsuva—————1.00%—3.00%9.00%12.00%18.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Ekranas 100% —
Panerys 100% —
Romar Mazeikiai 100% —
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 100% —
FBK Kaunas 99.00% 1.00%
PSK Aras Klaipeda 99.00% 1.00%
Sirijus Klaipeda 91.00% 9.00%
Inkaras Kaunas 77.00% 23.00%
Neris Vilnius 57.00% 43.00%
Gelezinis Vilkas 38.00% 62.00%
Sakalas Siauliai 26.00% 74.00%
Tauras-Karsuva 13.00% 87.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1993-07-29 Tauras-Karsuva W 1-031.3 1148 675 75.64% 21.76% 2.60%+3.39 +1.7 2
1993-07-29 @ Ekranas L 0-131.3 675 1148 2.60% 21.76% 75.64%-3.39 -1.7 0
1993-07-29 Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-151.7 891 787 56.40% 26.09% 17.51%+0.95 -4.3 1
1993-07-29 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-151.7 787 891 17.51% 26.09% 56.40%-0.95 +4.3 1
1993-07-29 Sirijus Klaipeda L 1-246.4 800 888 32.80% 26.46% 40.74%-0.32 -16.6 0
1993-07-29 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-146.4 888 800 40.74% 26.46% 32.80%+0.32 +16.6 2
1993-07-29 Panerys L 1-240.4 729 1000 13.86% 25.44% 60.70%-1.53 -8.2 0
1993-07-29 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-140.4 1000 729 60.70% 25.44% 13.86%+1.53 +8.2 2
1993-07-29 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 3-141.8 928 873 51.45% 26.32% 22.23%+0.63 +21.3 2
1993-07-29 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 1-341.8 873 928 22.23% 26.32% 51.45%-0.63 -21.3 0
1993-07-29 Neris Vilnius W 4-135.0 1114 822 68.97% 24.37% 6.65%+2.19 +10.3 2
1993-07-29 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 1-435.0 822 1114 6.65% 24.37% 68.97%-2.19 -10.3 0
1993-08-07 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-139.1 791 949 24.06% 26.22% 49.72%-0.78 -13.9 1
1993-08-07 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-039.1 949 791 49.72% 26.22% 24.06%+0.78 +13.9 4
1993-08-07 FBK Kaunas W 1-044.8 784 887 30.73% 26.43% 42.84%-0.42 +21.6 2
1993-08-07 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-144.8 887 784 42.84% 26.43% 30.73%+0.42 -21.6 1
1993-08-07 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-347.8 905 721 62.81% 25.51% 11.68%+1.47 -84.2 2
1993-08-07 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 3-047.8 721 905 11.68% 25.51% 62.81%-1.47 +84.2 2
1993-08-07 PSK Aras Klaipeda D 1-151.7 673 851 21.85% 26.12% 52.03%-0.92 +3.3 1
1993-08-07 @ Tauras-Karsuva D 1-151.7 851 673 52.03% 26.12% 21.85%+0.92 -3.3 1
1993-08-14 Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-035.4 848 777 53.09% 26.26% 20.65%+0.73 +33.7 3
1993-08-14 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-335.4 777 848 20.65% 26.26% 53.09%-0.73 -33.7 1
1993-08-14 Panerys D 0-047.8 1150 1008 59.62% 25.85% 14.53%+1.19 -5.8 3
1993-08-14 @ Ekranas D 0-047.8 1008 1150 14.53% 25.85% 59.62%-1.19 +5.8 3
1993-08-14 Sakalas Siauliai W 5-034.5 865 805 51.98% 26.30% 21.71%+0.66 +56.5 3
1993-08-14 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-534.5 805 865 21.71% 26.30% 51.98%-0.66 -56.5 2
1993-08-14 Tauras-Karsuva W 3-028.8 1125 676 74.89% 22.16% 2.95%+3.22 +5.3 4
1993-08-14 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-328.8 676 1125 2.95% 22.16% 74.89%-3.22 -5.4 1
1993-08-28 PSK Aras Klaipeda D 1-151.6 805 882 34.32% 26.48% 39.20%-0.24 +0.5 3
1993-08-28 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-151.6 882 805 39.20% 26.48% 34.32%+0.24 -0.5 4
1993-08-28 Ekranas W 1-050.8 820 1144 10.61% 24.92% 64.47%-1.87 +31.5 4
1993-08-28 @ Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-150.8 1144 820 64.47% 24.92% 10.61%+1.87 -31.5 3
1993-08-28 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-137.8 963 749 64.83% 25.22% 9.95%+1.68 +10.7 6
1993-08-28 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 1-337.8 749 963 9.95% 25.22% 64.83%-1.68 -10.7 2
1993-08-28 FBK Kaunas L 0-140.9 812 922 29.87% 26.41% 43.72%-0.46 -16.4 0
1993-08-28 @ Neris Vilnius W 1-040.9 922 812 43.72% 26.41% 29.87%+0.46 +16.4 5
1993-08-28 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 4-146.9 1014 1130 29.11% 26.39% 44.50%-0.50 +51.4 5
1993-08-28 @ Panerys L 1-446.9 1130 1014 44.50% 26.39% 29.11%+0.50 -51.4 4
1993-08-29 Tauras-Karsuva L 0-147.9 744 671 53.34% 26.25% 20.42%+0.74 -26.1 1
1993-08-29 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-047.9 671 744 20.42% 26.25% 53.34%-0.74 +26.1 3
1993-09-06 Inkaras Kaunas W 8-031.3 974 806 61.71% 25.64% 12.65%+1.37 +56.0 8
1993-09-06 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-831.3 806 974 12.65% 25.64% 61.71%-1.37 -56.0 3
1993-09-06 Sirijus Klaipeda D 1-151.6 796 852 37.21% 26.50% 36.29%-0.11 -0.1 1
1993-09-06 @ Neris Vilnius D 1-151.6 852 796 36.29% 26.50% 37.21%+0.11 +0.1 5
1993-09-12 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-033.3 881 738 59.80% 25.83% 14.37%+1.21 +24.9 6
1993-09-12 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-333.3 738 881 14.37% 25.83% 59.80%-1.21 -24.9 2
1993-09-12 FBK Kaunas W 1-035.4 1112 938 62.14% 25.59% 12.27%+1.41 +7.9 5
1993-09-12 @ Ekranas L 0-135.4 938 1112 12.27% 25.59% 62.14%-1.41 -7.9 5
1993-09-12 Inkaras Kaunas D 1-151.6 718 750 40.60% 26.51% 32.89%+0.05 -0.8 2
1993-09-12 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-151.6 750 718 32.89% 26.51% 40.60%-0.05 +0.8 4
1993-09-12 Neris Vilnius D 0-048.0 1030 796 66.00% 25.02% 8.97%+1.81 -7.6 9
1993-09-12 @ Romar Mazeikiai D 0-048.0 796 1030 8.97% 25.02% 66.00%-1.81 +7.6 2
1993-09-12 Tauras-Karsuva W 4-028.8 1066 697 72.18% 23.36% 4.46%+2.69 +10.8 7
1993-09-12 @ Panerys L 0-428.8 697 1066 4.46% 23.36% 72.18%-2.69 -10.8 3
1993-09-12 Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-034.3 1079 852 65.55% 25.10% 9.35%+1.76 +6.2 6
1993-09-12 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-134.3 852 1079 9.35% 25.10% 65.55%-1.76 -6.2 5
1993-09-19 Romar Mazeikiai W 2-035.8 1120 1022 55.81% 26.12% 18.07%+0.91 +20.8 7
1993-09-19 @ Ekranas L 0-235.8 1022 1120 18.07% 26.12% 55.81%-0.91 -20.8 9
1993-09-19 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-336.5 930 1085 24.47% 26.24% 49.29%-0.76 -38.5 5
1993-09-19 @ FBK Kaunas W 3-036.5 1085 930 49.29% 26.24% 24.47%+0.76 +38.5 8
1993-09-19 Panerys D 1-151.8 846 1076 16.99% 25.77% 57.24%-1.26 +4.5 6
1993-09-19 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 1-151.8 1076 846 57.24% 25.77% 16.99%+1.26 -4.5 8
1993-09-19 Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-040.7 713 717 44.36% 26.48% 29.16%+0.24 +16.1 4
1993-09-19 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 0-140.7 717 713 29.16% 26.48% 44.36%-0.24 -16.1 2
1993-09-19 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-338.4 803 906 30.74% 26.43% 42.84%-0.42 -45.9 2
1993-09-19 @ Neris Vilnius W 3-038.4 906 803 42.84% 26.43% 30.74%+0.42 +45.9 8
1993-09-19 Inkaras Kaunas D 2-256.3 686 750 36.05% 26.50% 37.45%-0.16 +0.1 4
1993-09-19 @ Tauras-Karsuva D 2-256.3 750 686 37.45% 26.50% 36.05%+0.16 -0.1 5
1993-09-22 Neris Vilnius W 1-033.0 1072 757 70.00% 24.09% 5.91%+2.34 +4.0 10
1993-09-22 @ Panerys L 0-133.0 757 1072 5.91% 24.09% 70.00%-2.34 -4.0 2
1993-09-26 Ekranas D 0-047.7 952 1141 20.81% 26.06% 53.13%-0.98 +3.9 9
1993-09-26 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda D 0-047.7 1141 952 53.13% 26.06% 20.81%+0.98 -3.9 8
1993-09-26 Panerys L 0-138.2 892 1076 21.31% 26.08% 52.60%-0.95 -12.6 5
1993-09-26 @ FBK Kaunas W 1-038.2 1076 892 52.60% 26.08% 21.31%+0.95 +12.6 12
1993-09-26 Neris Vilnius W 1-042.7 701 753 37.75% 26.50% 35.75%-0.08 +18.8 4
1993-09-26 @ Gelezinis Vilkas L 0-142.7 753 701 35.75% 26.50% 37.75%+0.08 -18.8 2
1993-09-26 Sakalas Siauliai W 3-037.0 750 729 47.51% 26.43% 26.06%+0.40 +40.5 7
1993-09-26 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-337.0 729 750 26.06% 26.43% 47.51%-0.40 -40.5 4
1993-09-26 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 1-045.5 1002 1123 28.37% 26.37% 45.26%-0.54 +22.6 11
1993-09-26 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-145.5 1123 1002 45.26% 26.37% 28.37%+0.54 -22.6 8
1993-09-26 Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-336.2 686 850 23.41% 26.19% 50.40%-0.82 -37.1 4
1993-09-26 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 3-036.2 850 686 50.40% 26.19% 23.41%+0.82 +37.2 8
1993-10-02 Tauras-Karsuva L 0-146.8 689 649 49.67% 26.38% 23.95%+0.52 -24.5 4
1993-10-02 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 1-046.8 649 689 23.95% 26.38% 49.67%-0.52 +24.5 6
1993-10-02 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-047.6 734 791 37.18% 26.50% 36.31%-0.11 -0.1 3
1993-10-02 @ Neris Vilnius D 0-047.6 791 734 36.31% 26.50% 37.18%+0.11 +0.1 8
1993-10-02 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 5-240.5 1101 956 59.89% 25.82% 14.29%+1.22 +18.1 10
1993-10-02 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 2-540.5 956 1101 14.29% 25.82% 59.89%-1.22 -18.1 9
1993-10-03 Gelezinis Vilkas W 4-028.3 1137 720 73.90% 22.64% 3.46%+3.02 +8.3 10
1993-10-03 @ Ekranas L 0-428.3 720 1137 3.46% 22.64% 73.90%-3.02 -8.3 4
1993-10-03 FBK Kaunas D 1-151.6 887 879 45.89% 26.46% 27.64%+0.32 -1.9 9
1993-10-03 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 1-151.6 879 887 27.64% 26.46% 45.89%-0.32 +1.9 6
1993-10-03 Romar Mazeikiai L 1-350.9 1088 1024 52.40% 26.29% 21.31%+0.69 -42.0 12
1993-10-03 @ Panerys W 3-150.9 1024 1088 21.31% 26.29% 52.40%-0.69 +42.0 13
1993-10-14 FBK Kaunas L 0-334.8 674 881 19.02% 25.94% 55.05%-1.11 -31.4 6
1993-10-14 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 3-034.8 881 674 55.05% 25.94% 19.02%+1.11 +31.4 8
1993-10-14 Gelezinis Vilkas W 7-027.8 1119 711 73.56% 22.79% 3.65%+2.95 +14.8 12
1993-10-14 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-727.8 711 1119 3.65% 22.79% 73.56%-2.95 -14.8 4
1993-10-15 Panerys D 1-151.6 938 1046 30.07% 26.41% 43.52%-0.45 +1.4 10
1993-10-15 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda D 1-151.6 1046 938 43.52% 26.41% 30.07%+0.45 -1.4 13
1993-10-15 Ekranas L 0-134.1 791 1146 9.04% 24.57% 66.39%-2.08 -5.9 8
1993-10-15 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 1-034.1 1146 791 66.39% 24.57% 9.04%+2.08 +5.9 12
1993-10-15 Neris Vilnius D 1-151.6 664 734 35.22% 26.49% 38.29%-0.20 +0.3 5
1993-10-15 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-151.6 734 664 38.29% 26.49% 35.22%+0.20 -0.3 4
1993-10-15 Sirijus Klaipeda W 6-134.1 1066 886 62.59% 25.54% 11.87%+1.45 +28.1 15
1993-10-15 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 1-634.1 886 1066 11.87% 25.54% 62.59%-1.45 -28.1 9
1993-10-24 Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-246.6 939 857 54.25% 26.21% 19.54%+0.80 -50.1 10
1993-10-24 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 2-046.6 857 939 19.54% 26.21% 54.25%-0.80 +50.1 11
1993-10-24 Panerys L 0-331.5 696 1045 9.32% 24.64% 66.03%-2.04 -16.7 4
1993-10-24 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 3-031.5 1045 696 66.03% 24.64% 9.32%+2.04 +16.7 15
1993-10-24 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-134.2 785 1134 9.32% 24.64% 66.03%-2.04 -6.1 8
1993-10-24 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 1-034.2 1134 785 66.03% 24.64% 9.32%+2.04 +6.1 14
1993-10-24 Neris Vilnius D 1-151.6 642 734 32.24% 26.45% 41.31%-0.34 +0.9 7
1993-10-24 @ Tauras-Karsuva D 1-151.6 734 642 41.31% 26.45% 32.24%+0.34 -0.9 5
1993-10-27 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 1-250.5 1151 1140 46.34% 26.45% 27.21%+0.34 -21.7 12
1993-10-27 @ Ekranas W 2-150.5 1140 1151 27.21% 26.45% 46.34%-0.34 +21.7 16
1993-10-30 FBK Kaunas D 2-256.3 889 913 41.81% 26.50% 31.69%+0.11 -0.8 11
1993-10-30 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda D 2-256.3 913 889 31.69% 26.50% 41.81%-0.11 +0.8 9
1993-10-30 Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-152.0 908 680 65.61% 25.09% 9.30%+1.76 -6.7 12
1993-10-30 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 1-152.0 680 908 9.30% 25.09% 65.61%-1.76 +6.7 5
1993-10-30 Tauras-Karsuva W 4-028.0 1094 643 74.97% 22.12% 2.91%+3.24 +6.9 17
1993-10-30 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-428.0 643 1094 2.91% 22.12% 74.97%-3.24 -6.9 7
1993-10-30 Sakalas Siauliai W 8-027.0 1161 664 76.32% 21.38% 2.30%+3.54 +10.3 18
1993-10-30 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-827.0 664 1161 2.30% 21.38% 76.32%-3.54 -10.3 5
1993-10-31 Ekranas L 1-435.1 733 1130 7.27% 24.06% 68.67%-2.35 -11.1 5
1993-10-31 @ Neris Vilnius W 4-135.1 1130 733 68.67% 24.06% 7.27%+2.35 +11.1 14
1993-10-31 Inkaras Kaunas W 1-033.4 1062 779 68.54% 24.48% 6.98%+2.13 +4.7 17
1993-10-31 @ Panerys L 0-133.4 779 1062 6.98% 24.48% 68.54%-2.13 -4.7 8
1993-11-03 Sakalas Siauliai W 10-027.1 1141 654 76.03% 21.55% 2.43%+3.47 +13.5 16
1993-11-03 @ Ekranas L 0-1027.1 654 1141 2.43% 21.55% 76.03%-3.47 -13.5 5
1993-11-03 Romar Mazeikiai D 0-047.7 913 1101 20.92% 26.06% 53.02%-0.98 +3.9 10
1993-11-03 @ FBK Kaunas D 0-047.7 1101 913 53.02% 26.06% 20.92%+0.98 -3.9 18
1994-03-25 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-035.0 901 774 58.39% 25.95% 15.66%+1.10 +18.5 14
1994-03-25 @ Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-235.0 774 901 15.66% 25.95% 58.39%-1.10 -18.5 8
1994-03-26 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-137.5 889 1097 18.92% 25.93% 55.15%-1.12 -11.4 11
1994-03-26 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 1-037.5 1097 889 55.15% 25.93% 18.92%+1.12 +11.4 20
1994-03-26 FBK Kaunas L 1-241.4 686 917 16.97% 25.77% 57.26%-1.26 -9.8 5
1994-03-26 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 2-141.4 917 686 57.26% 25.77% 16.97%+1.26 +9.8 12
1994-03-26 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-132.6 722 1172 5.53% 23.34% 71.14%-2.71 -3.7 5
1994-03-26 @ Neris Vilnius W 1-032.6 1172 722 71.14% 23.34% 5.53%+2.71 +3.7 20
1994-03-26 Sakalas Siauliai W 2-030.2 1066 641 74.16% 22.52% 3.32%+3.07 +4.2 19
1994-03-26 @ Panerys L 0-230.2 641 1066 3.32% 22.52% 74.16%-3.07 -4.2 5
1994-03-26 Ekranas L 0-131.8 636 1154 3.89% 22.31% 73.80%-3.16 -2.6 7
1994-03-26 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 1-031.8 1154 636 73.80% 22.31% 3.89%+3.16 +2.6 18
1994-04-01 Gelezinis Vilkas D 1-152.6 1071 677 73.09% 23.00% 3.91%+2.86 -8.5 20
1994-04-01 @ Panerys D 1-152.6 677 1071 3.91% 23.00% 73.09%-2.86 +8.5 6
1994-04-02 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-448.6 919 877 49.96% 26.37% 23.67%+0.54 -56.9 14
1994-04-02 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 4-148.6 877 919 23.67% 26.37% 49.96%-0.54 +56.9 13
1994-04-02 Ekranas L 0-230.3 636 1157 3.84% 22.28% 73.88%-3.17 -4.8 5
1994-04-02 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-030.3 1157 636 73.88% 22.28% 3.84%+3.17 +4.8 20
1994-04-02 FBK Kaunas W 3-032.5 1109 927 62.66% 25.53% 11.81%+1.46 +21.0 22
1994-04-02 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-332.5 927 1109 11.81% 25.53% 62.66%-1.46 -21.0 12
1994-04-02 Tauras-Karsuva W 1-037.6 718 634 54.52% 26.19% 19.29%+0.82 +11.6 7
1994-04-02 @ Neris Vilnius L 0-137.6 634 718 19.29% 26.19% 54.52%-0.82 -11.6 7
1994-04-02 Inkaras Kaunas W 1-031.8 1175 756 73.96% 22.61% 3.43%+3.03 +2.3 22
1994-04-02 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-131.8 756 1175 3.43% 22.61% 73.96%-3.03 -2.3 8
1994-04-08 Panerys D 1-152.0 754 1062 11.46% 25.08% 63.47%-1.77 +6.1 9
1994-04-08 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-152.0 1062 754 63.47% 25.08% 11.46%+1.77 -6.1 21
1994-04-08 Romar Mazeikiai L 1-433.6 622 1130 4.10% 22.48% 73.42%-3.09 -6.2 7
1994-04-08 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 4-133.6 1130 622 73.42% 22.48% 4.10%+3.09 +6.2 24
1994-04-09 Neris Vilnius W 10-128.2 1162 730 74.35% 22.43% 3.22%+3.11 +13.5 22
1994-04-09 @ Ekranas L 1-1028.2 730 1162 3.22% 22.43% 74.35%-3.11 -13.6 7
1994-04-09 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 1-041.6 906 934 41.16% 26.50% 32.33%+0.08 +17.4 14
1994-04-09 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-141.6 934 906 32.33% 26.50% 41.16%-0.08 -17.4 13
1994-04-09 Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-236.9 685 862 22.00% 26.12% 51.87%-0.91 -24.3 6
1994-04-09 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 2-036.9 862 685 51.87% 26.12% 22.00%+0.91 +24.4 16
1994-04-09 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius D 1-153.0 632 1178 3.37% 21.87% 74.76%-3.34 +8.8 6
1994-04-09 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-153.0 1178 632 74.76% 21.87% 3.37%+3.34 -8.8 23
1994-04-15 Ekranas D 1-151.7 1169 1175 44.05% 26.48% 29.46%+0.22 -1.5 24
1994-04-15 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius D 1-151.7 1175 1169 29.46% 26.48% 44.05%-0.22 +1.5 23
1994-04-16 Tauras-Karsuva D 2-257.0 917 616 69.38% 24.26% 6.35%+2.25 -5.7 14
1994-04-16 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda D 2-257.0 616 917 6.35% 24.26% 69.38%-2.25 +5.7 8
1994-04-16 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-034.1 923 760 61.38% 25.68% 12.94%+1.34 +15.7 16
1994-04-16 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-234.1 760 923 12.94% 25.68% 61.38%-1.34 -15.7 9
1994-04-16 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-153.9 640 887 15.71% 25.65% 58.64%-1.36 +26.9 8
1994-04-16 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 1-253.9 887 640 58.64% 25.65% 15.71%+1.36 -27.0 16
1994-04-16 Gelezinis Vilkas W 9-027.2 1136 661 75.69% 21.74% 2.58%+3.40 +13.0 26
1994-04-16 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-927.2 661 1136 2.58% 21.74% 75.69%-3.40 -13.0 6
1994-04-16 Panerys L 0-134.3 716 1056 9.77% 24.75% 65.49%-1.98 -6.4 7
1994-04-16 @ Neris Vilnius W 1-034.3 1056 716 65.49% 24.75% 9.77%+1.98 +6.4 23
1994-04-23 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-136.0 648 911 14.44% 25.51% 60.05%-1.47 -9.1 6
1994-04-23 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 1-036.0 911 648 60.05% 25.51% 14.44%+1.47 +9.1 16
1994-04-24 Romar Mazeikiai D 1-152.4 744 1149 6.97% 23.95% 69.08%-2.41 +7.5 10
1994-04-24 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 1-152.4 1149 744 69.08% 23.95% 6.97%+2.41 -7.5 27
1994-04-24 Neris Vilnius D 2-256.5 860 710 60.30% 25.79% 13.92%+1.25 -4.0 17
1994-04-24 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 2-256.5 710 860 13.92% 25.79% 60.30%-1.25 +4.0 8
1994-04-24 FBK Kaunas L 1-240.4 667 939 13.82% 25.43% 60.75%-1.53 -8.2 8
1994-04-24 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 2-140.4 939 667 60.75% 25.43% 13.82%+1.53 +8.2 18
1994-04-24 Ekranas L 1-245.4 1062 1177 29.29% 26.39% 44.31%-0.49 -15.2 23
1994-04-24 @ Panerys W 2-145.4 1177 1062 44.31% 26.39% 29.29%+0.49 +15.2 25
1994-04-24 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-428.1 622 1167 3.37% 21.87% 74.76%-3.34 -7.9 8
1994-04-24 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 4-028.1 1167 622 74.76% 21.87% 3.37%+3.34 +7.9 26
1994-04-29 Inkaras Kaunas D 2-256.6 920 751 61.72% 25.64% 12.64%+1.37 -4.2 17
1994-04-29 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda D 2-256.6 751 920 12.64% 25.64% 61.72%-1.37 +4.2 11
1994-04-29 Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-032.7 1192 856 70.90% 23.81% 5.29%+2.48 +3.6 27
1994-04-29 @ Ekranas L 0-132.7 856 1192 5.29% 23.81% 70.90%-2.48 -3.6 17
1994-04-29 Neris Vilnius W 3-031.5 947 714 65.93% 25.04% 9.03%+1.80 +16.4 20
1994-04-29 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-331.5 714 947 9.03% 25.04% 65.93%-1.80 -16.4 8
1994-04-29 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-132.3 659 1141 4.68% 22.86% 72.46%-2.92 -3.1 8
1994-04-29 @ Sakalas Siauliai W 1-032.3 1141 659 72.46% 22.86% 4.68%+2.92 +3.1 29
1994-04-29 Gelezinis Vilkas L 1-249.0 614 639 41.55% 26.50% 31.95%+0.10 -19.9 8
1994-04-29 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 2-149.0 639 614 31.95% 26.50% 41.55%-0.10 +19.9 8
1994-04-29 Panerys W 1-036.5 1175 1047 58.53% 25.94% 15.53%+1.11 +9.7 28
1994-04-29 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-136.5 1047 1175 15.53% 25.94% 58.53%-1.11 -9.7 23
1994-05-03 Gelezinis Vilkas D 2-256.4 756 659 55.73% 26.13% 18.14%+0.90 -3.1 12
1994-05-03 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 2-256.4 659 756 18.14% 26.13% 55.73%-0.90 +3.1 9
1994-05-04 Ekranas W 2-153.6 964 1196 16.89% 25.77% 57.34%-1.27 +26.4 22
1994-05-04 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-253.6 1196 964 57.34% 25.77% 16.89%+1.27 -26.4 27
1994-05-04 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-331.8 852 1185 10.12% 24.82% 65.06%-1.93 -18.0 17
1994-05-04 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 3-031.8 1185 852 65.06% 24.82% 10.12%+1.93 +18.0 30
1994-05-04 PSK Aras Klaipeda D 1-151.9 656 916 14.69% 25.54% 59.77%-1.45 +5.1 9
1994-05-04 @ Sakalas Siauliai D 1-151.9 916 656 59.77% 25.54% 14.69%+1.45 -5.1 18
1994-05-04 Romar Mazeikiai D 0-048.5 698 1144 5.61% 23.38% 71.01%-2.69 +8.9 9
1994-05-04 @ Neris Vilnius D 0-048.5 1144 698 71.01% 23.38% 5.61%+2.69 -8.9 30
1994-05-04 Panerys L 1-631.6 594 1037 5.71% 23.42% 70.87%-2.66 -13.8 8
1994-05-04 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 6-131.6 1037 594 70.87% 23.42% 5.71%+2.66 +13.8 25
1994-05-08 Neris Vilnius W 3-138.0 911 707 64.15% 25.33% 10.52%+1.61 +11.3 20
1994-05-08 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-338.0 707 911 10.52% 25.33% 64.15%-1.61 -11.3 9
1994-05-08 Sakalas Siauliai W 1-040.5 662 661 44.92% 26.47% 28.60%+0.26 +15.9 11
1994-05-08 @ Gelezinis Vilkas L 0-140.5 661 662 28.60% 26.47% 44.92%-0.26 -15.9 9
1994-05-08 Tauras-Karsuva W 4-031.9 753 580 62.02% 25.60% 12.37%+1.40 +28.5 14
1994-05-08 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-431.9 580 753 12.37% 25.60% 62.02%-1.40 -28.6 8
1994-05-08 Ekranas W 2-146.6 1136 1169 40.39% 26.51% 33.10%+0.04 +16.7 32
1994-05-08 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 1-246.6 1169 1136 33.10% 26.51% 40.39%-0.04 -16.7 27
1994-05-08 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-033.0 1051 834 64.96% 25.20% 9.83%+1.69 +12.2 27
1994-05-08 @ Panerys L 0-233.0 834 1051 9.83% 25.20% 64.96%-1.69 -12.2 17
1994-05-08 FBK Kaunas W 2-139.2 1203 990 64.71% 25.24% 10.05%+1.67 +6.2 32
1994-05-08 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 1-239.2 990 1203 10.05% 25.24% 64.71%-1.67 -6.2 22
1994-05-13 PSK Aras Klaipeda D 1-152.0 1152 922 65.78% 25.06% 9.16%+1.78 -6.8 28
1994-05-13 @ Ekranas D 1-152.0 922 1152 9.16% 25.06% 65.78%-1.78 +6.8 21
1994-05-13 Tauras-Karsuva W 4-030.1 822 551 67.94% 24.63% 7.44%+2.05 +17.9 19
1994-05-13 @ Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-430.1 551 822 7.44% 24.63% 67.94%-2.05 -17.8 8
1994-05-13 Inkaras Kaunas W 2-150.6 645 781 26.64% 26.32% 47.04%-0.63 +22.0 11
1994-05-13 @ Sakalas Siauliai L 1-250.6 781 645 47.04% 26.32% 26.64%+0.63 -22.0 14
1994-05-13 Gelezinis Vilkas D 2-256.3 695 678 47.07% 26.44% 26.49%+0.38 -1.6 10
1994-05-13 @ Neris Vilnius D 2-256.3 678 695 26.49% 26.44% 47.07%-0.38 +1.6 12
1994-05-13 FBK Kaunas L 0-246.6 1063 984 54.00% 26.22% 19.78%+0.79 -49.9 27
1994-05-13 @ Panerys W 2-046.6 984 1063 19.78% 26.22% 54.00%-0.79 +49.9 24
1994-05-13 Romar Mazeikiai D 0-047.8 1209 1152 51.63% 26.32% 22.05%+0.64 -3.6 33
1994-05-13 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius D 0-047.8 1152 1209 22.05% 26.32% 51.63%-0.64 +3.6 33
1994-05-19 Neris Vilnius W 2-036.7 759 694 52.54% 26.28% 21.17%+0.69 +23.7 16
1994-05-19 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-236.7 694 759 21.17% 26.28% 52.54%-0.69 -23.7 10
1994-05-20 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-135.7 929 1206 13.45% 25.38% 61.17%-1.57 -8.5 21
1994-05-20 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 1-035.7 1206 929 61.17% 25.38% 13.45%+1.57 +8.5 35
1994-05-20 Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-034.9 1034 840 63.50% 25.42% 11.08%+1.54 +7.2 26
1994-05-20 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-134.9 840 1034 11.08% 25.42% 63.50%-1.54 -7.2 19
1994-05-20 Ekranas D 0-048.6 679 1146 5.07% 23.10% 71.83%-2.82 +9.1 13
1994-05-20 @ Gelezinis Vilkas D 0-048.6 1146 679 71.83% 23.10% 5.07%+2.82 -9.1 29
1994-05-20 Panerys W 2-140.7 1156 1014 59.70% 25.84% 14.46%+1.20 +8.6 35
1994-05-20 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 1-240.7 1014 1156 14.46% 25.84% 59.70%-1.20 -8.6 27
1994-05-20 Sakalas Siauliai L 2-348.9 534 667 26.89% 26.33% 46.78%-0.62 -13.5 8
1994-05-20 @ Tauras-Karsuva W 3-248.9 667 534 46.78% 26.33% 26.89%+0.62 +13.5 13
1994-05-29 Inkaras Kaunas W 4-029.0 1137 783 71.61% 23.57% 4.82%+2.59 +11.6 31
1994-05-29 @ Ekranas L 0-429.0 783 1137 4.82% 23.57% 71.61%-2.59 -11.6 16
1994-05-29 Tauras-Karsuva W 2-029.4 1041 520 76.99% 20.98% 2.03%+3.70 +2.5 28
1994-05-29 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-229.4 520 1041 2.03% 20.98% 76.99%-3.70 -2.5 8
1994-05-29 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 1-729.6 688 1214 3.73% 22.19% 74.07%-3.21 -10.6 13
1994-05-29 @ Gelezinis Vilkas W 7-129.6 1214 688 74.07% 22.19% 3.73%+3.21 +10.6 37
1994-05-29 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-134.5 833 1164 10.16% 24.83% 65.01%-1.93 -6.6 19
1994-05-29 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-034.5 1164 833 65.01% 24.83% 10.16%+1.93 +6.6 37
1994-05-29 Sakalas Siauliai L 0-541.0 670 681 43.45% 26.49% 30.06%+0.19 -96.3 10
1994-05-29 @ Neris Vilnius W 5-041.0 681 670 30.06% 26.49% 43.45%-0.19 +96.3 15
1994-05-29 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 1-037.6 1005 920 54.54% 26.19% 19.27%+0.82 +11.6 29
1994-05-29 @ Panerys L 0-137.6 920 1005 19.27% 26.19% 54.54%-0.82 -11.6 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1993-08-28 10.61% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 820 1 Ekranas 1144 0
2 1993-08-07 11.68% Sakalas Siauliai 721 3 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 905 0
3 1994-04-16 15.71% @ Sakalas Siauliai 640 2 Sirijus Klaipeda 887 1
4 1994-05-04 16.89% @ FBK Kaunas 964 2 Ekranas 1196 1
5 1993-10-24 19.54% Sirijus Klaipeda 857 2 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 939 0
6 1994-05-13 19.78% FBK Kaunas 984 2 @ Panerys 1063 0
7 1993-08-29 20.42% Tauras-Karsuva 671 1 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 744 0
8 1993-10-03 21.31% Romar Mazeikiai 1024 3 @ Panerys 1088 1
9 1994-04-02 23.67% PSK Aras Klaipeda 877 4 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 919 1
10 1993-10-02 23.95% Tauras-Karsuva 649 1 @ Sakalas Siauliai 689 0
11 1994-05-13 26.64% @ Sakalas Siauliai 645 2 Inkaras Kaunas 781 1
12 1993-10-27 27.21% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1140 2 @ Ekranas 1151 1
13 1993-09-26 28.37% @ Romar Mazeikiai 1002 1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1123 0
14 1993-08-28 29.11% @ Panerys 1014 4 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1130 1
15 1994-05-29 30.06% Sakalas Siauliai 681 5 @ Neris Vilnius 670 0
16 1993-08-07 30.73% @ Inkaras Kaunas 784 1 FBK Kaunas 887 0
17 1994-04-29 31.95% Gelezinis Vilkas 639 2 @ Tauras-Karsuva 614 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-05-29 96.27 Sakalas Siauliai 5 681 30.06% @ Neris Vilnius 0 670 43.45% 26.49%
2 1993-08-07 84.22 Sakalas Siauliai 3 721 11.68% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 0 905 62.81% 25.51%
3 1994-04-02 56.85 PSK Aras Klaipeda 4 877 23.67% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1 919 49.96% 26.37%
4 1993-08-14 56.49 @ FBK Kaunas 5 865 51.98% Sakalas Siauliai 0 805 21.71% 26.30%
5 1993-09-06 56.03 @ Romar Mazeikiai 8 974 61.71% Inkaras Kaunas 0 806 12.65% 25.64%
6 1993-08-28 51.38 @ Panerys 4 1014 29.11% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1 1130 44.50% 26.39%
7 1993-10-24 50.10 Sirijus Klaipeda 2 857 19.54% @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 0 939 54.25% 26.21%
8 1994-05-13 49.88 FBK Kaunas 2 984 19.78% @ Panerys 0 1063 54.00% 26.22%
9 1993-09-19 45.93 PSK Aras Klaipeda 3 906 42.84% @ Neris Vilnius 0 803 30.74% 26.43%
10 1993-10-03 42.00 Romar Mazeikiai 3 1024 21.31% @ Panerys 1 1088 52.40% 26.29%
11 1993-09-26 40.51 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 750 47.51% Sakalas Siauliai 0 729 26.06% 26.43%
12 1993-09-19 38.48 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1085 49.29% @ FBK Kaunas 0 930 24.47% 26.24%
13 1993-09-26 37.16 Sirijus Klaipeda 3 850 50.40% @ Tauras-Karsuva 0 686 23.41% 26.19%
14 1993-08-14 33.69 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 3 848 53.09% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 777 20.65% 26.26%
15 1993-08-28 31.46 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1 820 10.61% Ekranas 0 1144 64.47% 24.92%
16 1993-10-14 31.38 FBK Kaunas 3 881 55.05% @ Tauras-Karsuva 0 674 19.02% 25.94%
17 1994-05-08 28.55 @ Inkaras Kaunas 4 753 62.02% Tauras-Karsuva 0 580 12.37% 25.60%
18 1993-10-15 28.08 @ Romar Mazeikiai 6 1066 62.59% Sirijus Klaipeda 1 886 11.87% 25.54%
19 1994-04-16 26.95 @ Sakalas Siauliai 2 640 15.71% Sirijus Klaipeda 1 887 58.64% 25.65%
20 1994-05-04 26.36 @ FBK Kaunas 2 964 16.89% Ekranas 1 1196 57.34% 25.77%
21 1993-08-29 26.15 Tauras-Karsuva 1 671 20.42% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 744 53.34% 26.25%
22 1993-09-12 24.89 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 3 881 59.80% Sakalas Siauliai 0 738 14.37% 25.83%
23 1993-10-02 24.49 Tauras-Karsuva 1 649 23.95% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 689 49.67% 26.38%
24 1994-04-09 24.35 Sirijus Klaipeda 2 862 51.87% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 685 22.00% 26.12%
25 1994-05-19 23.67 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 759 52.54% Neris Vilnius 0 694 21.17% 26.28%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-04-16 57.0 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 2 917 69.38% Tauras-Karsuva 2 616 6.35% 24.26%
2 1994-04-29 56.6 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 2 920 61.72% Inkaras Kaunas 2 751 12.64% 25.64%
3 1994-04-24 56.5 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 2 860 60.30% Neris Vilnius 2 710 13.92% 25.79%
4 1994-05-03 56.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 756 55.73% Gelezinis Vilkas 2 659 18.14% 26.13%
5 1993-09-19 56.3 @ Tauras-Karsuva 2 686 36.05% Inkaras Kaunas 2 750 37.45% 26.50%
6 1993-10-30 56.3 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 2 889 41.81% FBK Kaunas 2 913 31.69% 26.50%
7 1994-05-13 56.3 @ Neris Vilnius 2 695 47.07% Gelezinis Vilkas 2 678 26.49% 26.44%
8 1994-04-16 53.9 @ Sakalas Siauliai 2 640 15.71% Sirijus Klaipeda 1 887 58.64% 25.65%
9 1994-05-04 53.6 @ FBK Kaunas 2 964 16.89% Ekranas 1 1196 57.34% 25.77%
10 1994-04-09 53.0 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 632 3.37% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1 1178 74.76% 21.87%
11 1994-04-01 52.6 @ Panerys 1 1071 73.09% Gelezinis Vilkas 1 677 3.91% 23.00%
12 1994-04-24 52.4 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 744 6.97% Romar Mazeikiai 1 1149 69.08% 23.95%
13 1993-10-30 52.0 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1 908 65.61% Gelezinis Vilkas 1 680 9.30% 25.09%
14 1994-04-08 52.0 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 754 11.46% Panerys 1 1062 63.47% 25.08%
15 1994-05-13 52.0 @ Ekranas 1 1152 65.78% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 922 9.16% 25.06%
16 1994-05-04 51.9 @ Sakalas Siauliai 1 656 14.69% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 916 59.77% 25.54%
17 1993-09-19 51.8 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1 846 16.99% Panerys 1 1076 57.24% 25.77%
18 1993-07-29 51.7 @ FBK Kaunas 1 891 56.40% Gelezinis Vilkas 1 787 17.51% 26.09%
19 1993-08-07 51.7 @ Tauras-Karsuva 1 673 21.85% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 851 52.03% 26.12%
20 1994-04-15 51.7 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1 1169 44.05% Ekranas 1 1175 29.46% 26.48%
21 1993-08-28 51.6 @ Inkaras Kaunas 1 805 34.32% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 882 39.20% 26.48%
22 1993-09-06 51.6 @ Neris Vilnius 1 796 37.21% Sirijus Klaipeda 1 852 36.29% 26.50%
23 1993-09-12 51.6 @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 718 40.60% Inkaras Kaunas 1 750 32.89% 26.51%
24 1993-10-03 51.6 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1 887 45.89% FBK Kaunas 1 879 27.64% 26.46%
25 1993-10-15 51.6 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 938 30.07% Panerys 1 1046 43.52% 26.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-10-30 27.0 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 8 1161 76.32% Sakalas Siauliai 0 664 2.30% 21.38%
2 1993-11-03 27.1 @ Ekranas 10 1141 76.03% Sakalas Siauliai 0 654 2.43% 21.55%
3 1994-04-16 27.2 @ Romar Mazeikiai 9 1136 75.69% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 661 2.58% 21.74%
4 1993-10-14 27.8 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 7 1119 73.56% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 711 3.65% 22.79%
5 1993-10-30 28.0 @ Romar Mazeikiai 4 1094 74.97% Tauras-Karsuva 0 643 2.91% 22.12%
6 1994-04-24 28.1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 4 1167 74.76% @ Tauras-Karsuva 0 622 3.37% 21.87%
7 1994-04-09 28.2 @ Ekranas 10 1162 74.35% Neris Vilnius 1 730 3.22% 22.43%
8 1993-10-03 28.3 @ Ekranas 4 1137 73.90% Gelezinis Vilkas 0 720 3.46% 22.64%
9 1993-08-14 28.8 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1125 74.89% Tauras-Karsuva 0 676 2.95% 22.16%
10 1993-09-12 28.8 @ Panerys 4 1066 72.18% Tauras-Karsuva 0 697 4.46% 23.36%
11 1994-05-29 29.0 @ Ekranas 4 1137 71.61% Inkaras Kaunas 0 783 4.82% 23.57%
12 1994-05-29 29.4 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1041 76.99% Tauras-Karsuva 0 520 2.03% 20.98%
13 1994-05-29 29.6 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 7 1214 74.07% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 1 688 3.73% 22.19%
14 1994-05-13 30.1 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 4 822 67.94% Tauras-Karsuva 0 551 7.44% 24.63%
15 1994-03-26 30.2 @ Panerys 2 1066 74.16% Sakalas Siauliai 0 641 3.32% 22.52%
16 1994-04-02 30.3 Ekranas 2 1157 73.88% @ Sakalas Siauliai 0 636 3.84% 22.28%
17 1993-07-29 31.3 @ Ekranas 1 1148 75.64% Tauras-Karsuva 0 675 2.60% 21.76%
18 1993-09-06 31.3 @ Romar Mazeikiai 8 974 61.71% Inkaras Kaunas 0 806 12.65% 25.64%
19 1993-10-24 31.5 Panerys 3 1045 66.03% @ Gelezinis Vilkas 0 696 9.32% 24.64%
20 1994-04-29 31.5 @ FBK Kaunas 3 947 65.93% Neris Vilnius 0 714 9.03% 25.04%
21 1994-05-04 31.6 Panerys 6 1037 70.87% @ Tauras-Karsuva 1 594 5.71% 23.42%
22 1994-03-26 31.8 Ekranas 1 1154 73.80% @ Tauras-Karsuva 0 636 3.89% 22.31%
23 1994-04-02 31.8 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1 1175 73.96% Inkaras Kaunas 0 756 3.43% 22.61%
24 1994-05-04 31.8 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1185 65.06% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 0 852 10.12% 24.82%
25 1994-05-08 31.9 @ Inkaras Kaunas 4 753 62.02% Tauras-Karsuva 0 580 12.37% 25.60%