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1994-95 A Lyga Season

132 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Inkaras Kaunas

9.26 points above expected

36 points · 26.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Interas Visaginas

7.13 points below expected

5 points · 12.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 22 17 2 3 36 61 14 +47 33.62 +2.38
2 Inkaras Kaunas 22 16 4 2 36 50 12 +38 26.74 +9.26
3 Romar Mazeikiai 22 15 4 3 34 51 14 +37 32.03 +1.97
4 Panerys 22 11 6 5 28 35 25 +10 25.63 +2.37
5 PSK Aras Klaipeda 22 13 1 8 27 41 28 +13 23.77 +3.23
6 FBK Kaunas 22 8 8 6 24 25 22 +3 23.97 +0.03
7 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 22 9 4 9 22 37 23 +14 21.81 +0.19
8 Ekranas 22 7 8 7 22 21 18 +3 23.81 -1.81
9 Banga Gargzdai 22 3 6 13 12 19 56 -37 14.83 -2.83
10 Musa Ukmerge 22 3 5 14 11 12 58 -46 12.17 -1.17
11 Sirijus Klaipeda 22 2 3 17 7 12 39 -27 13.49 -6.49
12 Interas Visaginas 22 1 3 18 5 8 63 -55 12.13 -7.13

Notes

  • After being tied on points at the end of the season, Inkaras Kaunas defeated Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 2-0 in a one-game championship playoff.
  • Romar Mazeikiai disbanded after the season due to financial difficulties.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Inkaras Kaunas 36 26.74 +9.26
2 PSK Aras Klaipeda 27 23.77 +3.23
3 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 36 33.62 +2.38
4 Panerys 28 25.63 +2.37
5 Romar Mazeikiai 34 32.03 +1.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Interas Visaginas 5 12.13 -7.13
2 Sirijus Klaipeda 7 13.49 -6.49
3 Banga Gargzdai 12 14.83 -2.83
4 Ekranas 22 23.81 -1.81
5 Musa Ukmerge 11 12.17 -1.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inkaras Kaunas 10 Apr 8 – Jun 2 1 in 136
2 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 11 Aug 14 – Apr 12 1 in 55
3 FBK Kaunas 3 Apr 30 – May 7 1 in 38
4 PSK Aras Klaipeda 5 Oct 16 – Apr 17 1 in 34
5 Interas Visaginas 1 Jun 2 – Jun 2 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Interas Visaginas 8 Jul 25 – Sep 24 1 in 154
2 Banga Gargzdai 5 Aug 14 – Sep 18 1 in 36
3 Sirijus Klaipeda 5 May 7 – Jun 14 1 in 21
4 PSK Aras Klaipeda 4 Sep 10 – Oct 2 1 in 9
5 Musa Ukmerge 8 Oct 23 – May 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banga Gargzdai 4 May 12 – Jun 16 1 in 55
2 Inkaras Kaunas 13 Oct 15 – Jun 16 1 in 43
3 FBK Kaunas 7 Apr 30 – Jun 16 1 in 29
4 Ekranas 4 May 3 – May 25 1 in 19
5 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 5 Aug 21 – Sep 24 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Interas Visaginas 20 Jul 25 – May 25 1 in 87
2 Ekranas 9 Apr 12 – Jun 2 1 in 64
3 Panerys 5 May 3 – Jun 2 1 in 19
4 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 2 May 3 – May 7 1 in 14
5 Banga Gargzdai 10 Oct 23 – May 25 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Inkaras Kaunas 1626 36 +60 9 7.0 +2.0
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1695 36 +32 8 8.1 -0.1
Romar Mazeikiai 1525 34 +15 7 6.7 +0.3
Panerys 1372 28 -14 4 4.1 -0.1
PSK Aras Klaipeda 1361 27 -31 6 6.4 -0.4
FBK Kaunas 1305 24 -1 6 6.1 -0.1
Ekranas 1235 22 -8 5 5.2 -0.2
Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1325 22 -86 4 6.2 -2.2
Banga Gargzdai 997 12 +63 5 2.4 +2.6
Musa Ukmerge 906 11 +38 4 3.1 +0.9
Sirijus Klaipeda 928 7 -82 0 2.7 -2.7
Interas Visaginas 888 5 +13 2 2.0 +0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BG EKR FK IK IV KS MU PAK PAN RM SK ZV
Banga Gargzdai —
0-1-1
1.03
0-1-1
0.99
0-0-2
1.82
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.00
1-1-0
3.41
0-0-2
1.15
0-1-1
0.93
0-0-2
1.52
1-1-0
3.09
0-0-2
0.96
Ekranas
1-1-0
4.55
—
0-2-0
2.45
0-0-2
2.29
1-1-0
4.32
0-1-1
2.54
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.78
0-1-1
1.44
2-0-0
4.44
0-1-1
1.36
FBK Kaunas
1-1-0
4.59
0-2-0
3.12
—
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
4.04
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
4.45
0-0-2
2.94
0-2-0
2.47
0-1-1
1.42
2-0-0
4.31
1-0-1
0.77
Inkaras Kaunas
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.71
—
2-0-0
4.92
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.79
2-0-0
2.77
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.40
2-0-0
4.33
0-1-1
1.49
Interas Visaginas
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
0.69
—
1-0-1
0.65
0-1-1
3.09
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
1.36
0-0-2
0.45
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
1.82
Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai
2-0-0
3.58
1-1-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.62
0-1-1
1.38
1-0-1
4.94
—
2-0-0
3.79
0-0-2
2.99
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.38
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-1
0.83
Musa Ukmerge
0-1-1
2.16
0-0-2
1.46
0-1-1
1.13
0-0-2
0.80
1-1-0
2.48
0-0-2
1.79
—
0-1-1
1.31
0-0-2
1.07
0-1-1
0.45
2-0-0
2.49
0-0-2
0.40
PSK Aras Klaipeda
2-0-0
4.44
1-0-1
3.23
2-0-0
2.63
0-0-2
2.80
2-0-0
4.57
2-0-0
2.59
1-1-0
4.28
—
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
1.29
2-0-0
3.98
0-0-2
0.91
Panerys
1-1-0
4.65
1-1-0
2.80
0-2-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.73
2-0-0
4.23
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
2.95
—
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
4.74
0-0-2
1.49
Romar Mazeikiai
2-0-0
4.07
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
4.16
0-1-1
3.17
2-0-0
5.17
2-0-0
4.20
1-1-0
5.18
1-0-1
4.28
2-0-0
3.55
—
2-0-0
5.04
1-0-1
2.48
Sirijus Klaipeda
0-1-1
2.48
0-0-2
1.14
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
1.26
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-2
3.08
0-0-2
1.59
0-1-1
0.84
0-0-2
0.56
—
0-0-2
0.45
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius
2-0-0
4.65
1-1-0
4.22
1-0-1
4.82
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.79
1-0-1
4.75
2-0-0
5.24
2-0-0
4.68
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
5.17
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +6.0
Allowed 0.79 -5.3
Differential 0.93 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%8.33%7.20%4.92%2.27%3.79%40.15%
18.33%4.55%4.92%1.89%0.38%1.89%21.97%
27.20%4.92%2.27%1.89%0.76%0.76%17.80%
34.92%1.89%1.89%—0.38%0.38%9.47%
42.27%0.38%0.76%0.38%——3.79%
5+3.79%1.89%0.76%0.38%——6.82%
Total40.15%21.97%17.80%9.47%3.79%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.69 1.69 2.60
CV 1.20 1.20 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%40.91%
14.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—13.64%40.91%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
3——4.55%——4.55%9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%22.73%22.73%9.09%9.09%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.55 -1.68
SD 0.94 1.95 2.10
CV 1.09 0.76 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.27%9.09%13.64%———50.00%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total45.45%31.82%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 0.82 +0.14
SD 1.21 0.91 1.61
CV 1.27 1.11 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%4.55%9.09%——4.55%40.91%
19.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%18.18%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.00 +0.14
SD 1.21 1.27 1.81
CV 1.06 1.27 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
113.64%—————13.64%
29.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
318.18%4.55%9.09%———31.82%
4———————
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total63.64%18.18%18.18%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 0.55 +1.73
SD 1.98 0.80 2.16
CV 0.87 1.47 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%13.64%18.18%—13.64%68.18%
14.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%27.27%
2—————4.55%4.55%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%18.18%22.73%18.18%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.36 2.86 -2.50
SD 0.58 2.46 2.35
CV 1.60 0.86 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%22.73%4.55%———45.45%
14.55%——4.55%——9.09%
29.09%9.09%——4.55%—22.73%
34.55%———4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+—13.64%————13.64%
Total36.36%45.45%4.55%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.05 +0.64
SD 2.28 1.21 2.44
CV 1.35 1.16 —
Max 9 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—9.09%13.64%4.55%18.18%59.09%
19.09%9.09%—4.55%—4.55%27.27%
2—4.55%—9.09%——13.64%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%13.64%9.09%27.27%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 2.64 -2.09
SD 0.74 2.28 2.47
CV 1.35 0.86 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%——27.27%
118.18%—9.09%———27.27%
29.09%13.64%—4.55%——27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
Total36.36%22.73%18.18%22.73%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.27 +0.59
SD 2.23 1.20 2.48
CV 1.20 0.94 —
Max 9 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%——4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
218.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total50.00%22.73%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.14 +0.45
SD 1.56 1.61 2.54
CV 0.98 1.42 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%—4.55%——22.73%
113.64%—4.55%———18.18%
213.64%—4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
49.09%——4.55%——13.64%
5+13.64%—4.55%———18.18%
Total68.18%9.09%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 0.64 +1.68
SD 1.94 1.05 2.23
CV 0.84 1.65 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%18.18%4.55%9.09%—59.09%
14.55%—22.73%———27.27%
24.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%18.18%45.45%4.55%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 1.77 -1.23
SD 0.74 1.23 1.41
CV 1.35 0.69 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
14.55%—————4.55%
29.09%————4.55%13.64%
318.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
413.64%—9.09%———22.73%
5+13.64%—————13.64%
Total68.18%13.64%13.64%——4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 0.64 +2.14
SD 1.74 1.22 2.21
CV 0.63 1.91 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inkaras Kaunas 1700 36 26.74 +9.26 100.0% 18 21 25 27 29 31 35
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1620 36 33.62 +2.38 84.0% 26 29 31 33 36 39 42
Romar Mazeikiai 1525 34 32.03 +1.97 76.0% 25 26 30 32 34 37 39
Panerys 1372 28 25.63 +2.37 78.0% 14 20 23 25 28 32 35
PSK Aras Klaipeda 1361 27 23.77 +3.23 88.0% 17 19 22 24 26 30 31
Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1325 22 21.81 +0.19 54.0% 13 16 20 22 24 27 30
FBK Kaunas 1305 24 23.97 +0.03 54.0% 17 18 21 24 27 29 31
Ekranas 1235 22 23.81 -1.81 34.0% 14 17 21 24 26 30 33
Banga Gargzdai 997 12 14.83 -2.83 23.0% 6 9 13 15 17 21 26
Sirijus Klaipeda 928 7 13.49 -6.49 4.0% 5 8 11 14 16 19 24
Musa Ukmerge 906 11 12.17 -1.17 41.0% 3 7 10 12 14 18 21
Interas Visaginas 888 5 12.13 -7.13 1.0% 5 7 10 12 14 18 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.36%
Clear Edge
45.45%20.45%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 39.65 Elo pts.
195 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.76 * Some Luck: 2.76 to 4.15 * Lucky: 4.15 to 5.53 * Wild Swing: 5.53 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1 * Close: 1 to 1.5 * Off: 1.5 to 2 * Way Off: 2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.25 points
Lucky
03.459
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.253
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Inkaras Kaunas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Interas Visaginas
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 280.57
2.63
Moderate Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
92%
Wide Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.59
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.12
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.08
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Inkaras Kaunas 2
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius57.00%31.00%10.00%1.00%—1.00%——————
Inkaras Kaunas4.00%10.00%30.00%26.00%14.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%———
Romar Mazeikiai38.00%39.00%11.00%9.00%2.00%1.00%——————
Panerys1.00%9.00%18.00%20.00%17.00%15.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%———
PSK Aras Klaipeda—5.00%9.00%11.00%12.00%24.00%22.00%15.00%2.00%———
FBK Kaunas—2.00%11.00%12.00%21.00%14.00%21.00%14.00%4.00%1.00%——
Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai——4.00%7.00%14.00%19.00%20.00%27.00%7.00%2.00%——
Ekranas—4.00%7.00%14.00%19.00%16.00%16.00%15.00%7.00%2.00%——
Banga Gargzdai————1.00%1.00%3.00%11.00%25.00%32.00%18.00%9.00%
Musa Ukmerge———————1.00%18.00%21.00%22.00%38.00%
Sirijus Klaipeda——————2.00%5.00%24.00%25.00%26.00%18.00%
Interas Visaginas—————1.00%—3.00%10.00%17.00%34.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Ekranas 100% —
FBK Kaunas 100% —
Inkaras Kaunas 100% —
Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 100% —
PSK Aras Klaipeda 100% —
Panerys 100% —
Romar Mazeikiai 100% —
Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 100% —
Banga Gargzdai 91.00% 9.00%
Sirijus Klaipeda 82.00% 18.00%
Interas Visaginas 65.00% 35.00%
Musa Ukmerge 62.00% 38.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1994-07-23 Banga Gargzdai W 4-038.4 1336 1362 43.92% 21.53% 34.55%+0.07 +106.6 2
1994-07-23 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-438.4 1362 1336 34.55% 21.53% 43.92%-0.07 -106.6 0
1994-07-25 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-143.5 1217 1172 53.03% 21.48% 25.49%+0.44 +21.9 2
1994-07-25 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-243.5 1172 1217 25.49% 21.48% 53.03%-0.44 -21.9 0
1994-07-25 Inkaras Kaunas W 1-036.8 1272 1150 60.88% 21.36% 17.76%+0.83 +17.1 2
1994-07-25 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-136.8 1150 1272 17.76% 21.36% 60.88%-0.83 -17.1 0
1994-07-25 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-343.8 1362 1363 47.35% 21.52% 31.13%+0.20 -105.4 0
1994-07-25 @ Interas Visaginas W 3-043.8 1363 1362 31.13% 21.52% 47.35%-0.20 +105.4 2
1994-07-25 Panerys L 0-140.7 1139 1261 30.71% 21.49% 47.80%-0.42 -27.1 0
1994-07-25 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 1-040.7 1261 1139 47.80% 21.49% 30.71%+0.42 +27.1 2
1994-07-25 Ekranas L 1-343.1 1197 1330 29.25% 21.47% 49.28%-0.48 -42.5 0
1994-07-25 @ Musa Ukmerge W 3-143.1 1330 1197 49.28% 21.47% 29.25%+0.48 +42.5 2
1994-08-05 Interas Visaginas W 2-035.8 1373 1257 60.27% 21.38% 18.35%+0.80 +33.2 4
1994-08-05 @ Ekranas L 0-235.8 1257 1373 18.35% 21.38% 60.27%-0.80 -33.2 0
1994-08-05 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 1-045.2 1133 1239 32.74% 21.50% 45.76%-0.34 +37.4 2
1994-08-05 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-145.2 1239 1133 45.76% 21.50% 32.74%+0.34 -37.4 2
1994-08-05 Banga Gargzdai L 0-141.3 1150 1256 32.78% 21.50% 45.71%-0.34 -28.6 0
1994-08-05 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-041.3 1256 1150 45.71% 21.50% 32.78%+0.34 +28.6 2
1994-08-05 FBK Kaunas D 0-050.5 1112 1290 24.05% 21.41% 54.55%-0.71 +6.2 1
1994-08-05 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai D 0-050.5 1290 1112 54.55% 21.41% 24.05%+0.71 -6.2 3
1994-08-05 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 5-251.5 1443 1468 44.02% 21.53% 34.45%+0.07 +59.5 4
1994-08-05 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 2-551.5 1468 1443 34.45% 21.53% 44.02%-0.07 -59.5 2
1994-08-05 Musa Ukmerge W 5-030.8 1288 1154 61.87% 21.34% 16.79%+0.89 +71.9 4
1994-08-05 @ Panerys L 0-530.8 1154 1288 16.79% 21.34% 61.87%-0.89 -71.9 0
1994-08-13 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 2-035.7 1202 1118 57.18% 21.43% 21.39%+0.63 +37.9 4
1994-08-13 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-235.7 1118 1202 21.39% 21.43% 57.18%-0.63 -37.9 1
1994-08-13 Musa Ukmerge D 0-050.5 1283 1082 66.91% 21.16% 11.92%+1.24 -12.1 4
1994-08-13 @ FBK Kaunas D 0-050.5 1082 1283 11.92% 21.16% 66.91%-1.24 +12.1 1
1994-08-13 Panerys L 0-238.7 1224 1360 28.91% 21.47% 49.62%-0.50 -48.6 0
1994-08-13 @ Interas Visaginas W 2-038.7 1360 1224 49.62% 21.47% 28.91%+0.50 +48.6 6
1994-08-14 Sirijus Klaipeda W 3-035.0 1170 1121 53.42% 21.48% 25.10%+0.46 +62.9 4
1994-08-14 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-335.0 1121 1170 25.10% 21.48% 53.42%-0.46 -62.9 0
1994-08-14 Ekranas D 0-057.0 1502 1406 58.44% 21.41% 20.15%+0.70 -8.0 5
1994-08-14 @ Romar Mazeikiai D 0-057.0 1406 1502 20.15% 21.41% 58.44%-0.70 +8.0 5
1994-08-14 Banga Gargzdai W 4-033.2 1409 1284 61.06% 21.36% 17.59%+0.84 +60.7 4
1994-08-14 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-433.2 1284 1409 17.59% 21.36% 61.06%-0.84 -60.7 2
1994-08-20 Romar Mazeikiai L 1-350.9 1408 1494 35.53% 21.52% 42.96%-0.24 -49.8 6
1994-08-20 @ Panerys W 3-150.9 1494 1408 42.96% 21.52% 35.53%+0.24 +49.7 7
1994-08-20 PSK Aras Klaipeda D 0-050.4 1094 1240 27.77% 21.46% 50.77%-0.54 +4.6 2
1994-08-20 @ Musa Ukmerge D 0-050.4 1240 1094 50.77% 21.46% 27.77%+0.54 -4.6 5
1994-08-20 Ekranas W 3-146.9 1469 1414 54.15% 21.47% 24.38%+0.49 +36.6 6
1994-08-20 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 1-346.9 1414 1469 24.38% 21.47% 54.15%-0.49 -36.6 5
1994-08-21 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-341.5 1223 1233 46.13% 21.52% 32.34%+0.15 -103.1 2
1994-08-21 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-041.5 1233 1223 32.34% 21.52% 46.13%-0.15 +103.1 6
1994-08-21 FBK Kaunas L 0-337.9 1175 1271 34.08% 21.51% 44.41%-0.29 -80.7 0
1994-08-21 @ Interas Visaginas W 3-037.9 1271 1175 44.41% 21.51% 34.08%+0.29 +80.7 6
1994-08-21 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai D 0-050.3 1058 1080 44.48% 21.53% 33.99%+0.09 -2.0 1
1994-08-21 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 0-050.3 1080 1058 33.99% 21.53% 44.48%-0.09 +2.0 2
1994-08-30 Interas Visaginas W 9-232.5 1235 1094 62.47% 21.32% 16.21%+0.93 +64.8 7
1994-08-30 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 2-932.5 1094 1235 16.21% 21.32% 62.47%-0.93 -64.8 0
1994-08-31 Banga Gargzdai W 1-034.2 1377 1120 70.12% 20.98% 8.90%+1.52 +9.2 7
1994-08-31 @ Ekranas L 0-134.2 1120 1377 8.90% 20.98% 70.12%-1.52 -9.2 2
1994-08-31 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-050.6 1082 1336 16.72% 21.24% 62.04%-1.10 +9.7 3
1994-08-31 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai D 0-050.6 1336 1082 62.04% 21.24% 16.72%+1.10 -9.7 7
1994-08-31 FBK Kaunas W 2-039.1 1544 1352 66.30% 21.19% 12.51%+1.19 +23.7 9
1994-08-31 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-239.1 1352 1544 12.51% 21.19% 66.30%-1.19 -23.7 6
1994-08-31 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-638.9 1359 1506 27.55% 21.46% 51.00%-0.55 -129.8 6
1994-08-31 @ Panerys W 6-038.9 1506 1359 51.00% 21.46% 27.55%+0.55 +129.8 8
1994-08-31 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-143.5 1099 1056 52.68% 21.49% 25.83%+0.42 +22.2 4
1994-08-31 @ Musa Ukmerge L 1-243.5 1056 1099 25.83% 21.49% 52.68%-0.42 -22.2 1
1994-09-10 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 3-035.1 1568 1300 70.66% 20.94% 8.40%+1.58 +23.8 11
1994-09-10 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-335.1 1300 1568 8.40% 20.94% 70.66%-1.58 -23.8 7
1994-09-10 FBK Kaunas W 5-036.0 1636 1328 72.43% 20.78% 6.79%+1.78 +31.4 10
1994-09-10 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-536.0 1328 1636 6.79% 20.78% 72.43%-1.78 -31.4 6
1994-09-11 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 1-250.7 1111 1092 49.86% 21.51% 28.63%+0.30 -38.0 2
1994-09-11 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-150.7 1092 1111 28.63% 21.51% 49.86%-0.30 +38.0 5
1994-09-11 Panerys L 0-249.3 1386 1229 63.81% 21.28% 14.91%+1.01 -96.6 7
1994-09-11 @ Ekranas W 2-049.3 1229 1386 14.91% 21.28% 63.81%-1.01 +96.6 8
1994-09-11 Musa Ukmerge W 2-032.9 1327 1121 67.19% 21.15% 11.66%+1.26 +22.2 9
1994-09-11 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-232.9 1121 1327 11.66% 21.15% 67.19%-1.26 -22.2 4
1994-09-11 Interas Visaginas W 2-038.4 1034 1029 47.99% 21.52% 30.50%+0.23 +50.8 3
1994-09-11 @ Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-238.4 1029 1034 30.50% 21.52% 47.99%-0.23 -50.8 0
1994-09-18 Ekranas D 1-155.0 1297 1290 48.34% 21.52% 30.15%+0.24 -3.2 7
1994-09-18 @ FBK Kaunas D 1-155.0 1290 1297 30.15% 21.52% 48.34%-0.24 +3.2 8
1994-09-18 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-330.1 979 1349 9.21% 20.85% 69.94%-1.70 -25.9 0
1994-09-18 @ Interas Visaginas W 3-030.1 1349 979 69.94% 20.85% 9.21%+1.70 +25.9 11
1994-09-18 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-031.0 1591 1085 77.98% 19.73% 2.29%+2.81 +4.6 13
1994-09-18 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-231.0 1085 1591 2.29% 19.73% 77.98%-2.81 -4.6 3
1994-09-18 Banga Gargzdai W 6-028.2 1325 1073 69.88% 20.99% 9.12%+1.50 +49.2 10
1994-09-18 @ Panerys L 0-628.2 1073 1325 9.12% 20.99% 69.88%-1.50 -49.2 2
1994-09-18 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 1-939.7 1099 1130 43.25% 21.53% 35.22%+0.04 -201.6 4
1994-09-18 @ Musa Ukmerge W 9-139.7 1130 1099 35.22% 21.53% 43.25%-0.04 +201.6 7
1994-09-19 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 2-350.1 1276 1667 8.24% 20.76% 71.00%-1.81 -7.6 7
1994-09-19 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 3-250.1 1667 1276 71.00% 20.76% 8.24%+1.81 +7.6 12
1994-09-23 Ekranas L 1-249.6 1268 1293 44.14% 21.53% 34.33%+0.08 -34.2 7
1994-09-23 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 2-149.6 1293 1268 34.33% 21.53% 44.14%-0.08 +34.2 10
1994-09-23 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-059.3 1596 1375 68.17% 21.10% 10.73%+1.34 -12.7 14
1994-09-23 @ Romar Mazeikiai D 0-059.3 1375 1596 10.73% 21.10% 68.17%-1.34 +12.7 12
1994-09-23 Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-033.7 1675 1080 79.43% 19.15% 1.42%+3.26 +1.5 14
1994-09-23 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-133.7 1080 1675 1.42% 19.15% 79.43%-3.26 -1.5 3
1994-09-24 Musa Ukmerge D 1-154.2 1024 897 61.26% 21.35% 17.39%+0.86 -8.3 3
1994-09-24 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-154.2 897 1024 17.39% 21.35% 61.26%-0.86 +8.3 5
1994-09-24 Interas Visaginas W 5-130.9 1331 953 74.94% 20.45% 4.62%+2.15 +14.6 9
1994-09-24 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 1-530.9 953 1331 4.62% 20.45% 74.94%-2.15 -14.6 0
1994-09-24 FBK Kaunas D 0-051.8 1375 1294 56.87% 21.44% 21.69%+0.62 -7.3 11
1994-09-24 @ Panerys D 0-051.8 1294 1375 21.69% 21.44% 56.87%-0.62 +7.3 8
1994-10-01 Sirijus Klaipeda W 4-029.0 1327 1079 69.69% 21.01% 9.30%+1.48 +34.2 12
1994-10-01 @ Ekranas L 0-429.0 1079 1327 9.30% 21.01% 69.69%-1.48 -34.2 3
1994-10-01 Banga Gargzdai W 3-136.0 1301 1016 71.49% 20.87% 7.65%+1.67 +13.0 10
1994-10-01 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-336.0 1016 1301 7.65% 20.87% 71.49%-1.67 -13.0 3
1994-10-02 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-245.6 1387 1676 14.04% 21.14% 64.82%-1.28 -26.2 12
1994-10-02 @ Inkaras Kaunas W 2-045.6 1676 1387 64.82% 21.14% 14.04%+1.28 +26.2 16
1994-10-02 Musa Ukmerge D 1-154.1 938 906 51.48% 21.50% 27.02%+0.37 -4.4 1
1994-10-02 @ Interas Visaginas D 1-154.1 906 938 27.02% 21.50% 51.48%-0.37 +4.4 6
1994-10-02 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-144.1 1346 1583 18.17% 21.28% 60.55%-1.01 -17.4 9
1994-10-02 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 1-044.1 1583 1346 60.55% 21.28% 18.17%+1.01 +17.4 16
1994-10-02 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 2-035.2 1367 1234 61.80% 21.34% 16.86%+0.89 +30.8 13
1994-10-02 @ Panerys L 0-235.2 1234 1367 16.86% 21.34% 61.80%-0.89 -30.8 7
1994-10-15 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-147.7 1361 1361 47.44% 21.52% 31.04%+0.20 -38.6 12
1994-10-15 @ Ekranas W 1-047.7 1361 1361 31.04% 21.52% 47.44%-0.20 +38.6 14
1994-10-15 Banga Gargzdai L 1-247.1 934 1003 37.89% 21.52% 40.58%-0.15 -30.2 1
1994-10-15 @ Interas Visaginas W 2-147.1 1003 934 40.58% 21.52% 37.89%+0.15 +30.2 5
1994-10-15 Panerys D 0-050.7 1044 1398 10.04% 20.91% 69.05%-1.61 +13.1 4
1994-10-15 @ Sirijus Klaipeda D 0-050.7 1398 1044 69.05% 20.91% 10.04%+1.61 -13.1 14
1994-10-15 Romar Mazeikiai D 0-051.5 910 1601 1.62% 19.03% 79.35%-3.35 +18.0 7
1994-10-15 @ Musa Ukmerge D 0-051.5 1601 910 79.35% 19.03% 1.62%+3.35 -18.0 17
1994-10-15 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 4-249.6 1702 1329 74.78% 20.47% 4.74%+2.12 +7.3 18
1994-10-15 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 2-449.6 1329 1702 4.74% 20.47% 74.78%-2.12 -7.3 9
1994-10-16 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-149.7 1314 1203 59.79% 21.39% 18.82%+0.77 -47.9 10
1994-10-16 @ FBK Kaunas W 1-049.7 1203 1314 18.82% 21.39% 59.79%-0.77 +47.9 9
1994-10-23 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-634.3 1033 1251 19.88% 21.33% 58.79%-0.92 -68.8 5
1994-10-23 @ Banga Gargzdai W 6-134.3 1251 1033 58.79% 21.33% 19.88%+0.92 +68.8 11
1994-10-23 Panerys D 2-262.0 1400 1385 49.28% 21.51% 29.20%+0.28 -2.7 15
1994-10-23 @ Inkaras Kaunas D 2-262.0 1385 1400 29.20% 21.51% 49.28%-0.28 +2.7 15
1994-10-23 FBK Kaunas L 0-235.5 1058 1266 20.84% 21.35% 57.81%-0.87 -37.0 4
1994-10-23 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-035.5 1266 1058 57.81% 21.35% 20.84%+0.87 +37.0 12
1994-10-23 Ekranas W 2-039.9 1321 1323 47.21% 21.52% 31.27%+0.20 +51.9 11
1994-10-23 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 0-239.9 1323 1321 31.27% 21.52% 47.21%-0.20 -51.9 12
1994-10-23 Interas Visaginas W 6-025.2 1583 904 80.57% 18.54% 0.89%+3.69 +4.8 19
1994-10-23 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-625.2 904 1583 0.89% 18.54% 80.57%-3.69 -4.8 1
1994-10-23 Musa Ukmerge W 4-026.4 1710 928 81.76% 17.73% 0.51%+4.22 +1.8 20
1994-10-23 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-426.4 928 1710 0.51% 17.73% 81.76%-4.22 -1.9 7
1995-04-08 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-230.0 964 1587 2.34% 19.49% 78.17%-3.00 -4.7 5
1995-04-08 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-030.0 1587 964 78.17% 19.49% 2.34%+3.00 +4.7 21
1995-04-08 Musa Ukmerge W 3-028.8 1271 926 73.84% 20.61% 5.55%+1.98 +16.0 14
1995-04-08 @ Ekranas L 0-328.8 926 1271 5.55% 20.61% 73.84%-1.98 -16.0 7
1995-04-08 FBK Kaunas W 3-247.9 1397 1303 58.20% 21.42% 20.39%+0.69 +17.2 17
1995-04-08 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 2-347.9 1303 1397 20.39% 21.42% 58.20%-0.69 -17.2 12
1995-04-08 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-233.2 1021 1320 13.29% 21.10% 65.60%-1.34 -24.9 4
1995-04-08 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-033.2 1320 1021 65.60% 21.10% 13.29%+1.34 +24.9 13
1995-04-08 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 1-042.9 1388 1373 49.26% 21.51% 29.23%+0.28 +26.0 17
1995-04-08 @ Panerys L 0-142.9 1373 1388 29.23% 21.51% 49.26%-0.28 -26.0 11
1995-04-08 Interas Visaginas W 3-027.3 1712 899 82.10% 17.48% 0.43%+4.38 +1.2 22
1995-04-08 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-327.3 899 1712 0.43% 17.48% 82.10%-4.38 -1.2 1
1995-04-12 Banga Gargzdai W 5-340.5 1345 959 75.14% 20.41% 4.45%+2.19 +6.5 15
1995-04-12 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 3-540.5 959 1345 4.45% 20.41% 75.14%-2.19 -6.5 5
1995-04-12 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai D 0-051.5 1287 1347 39.14% 21.53% 39.33%-0.11 +0.0 15
1995-04-12 @ Ekranas D 0-051.5 1347 1287 39.33% 21.53% 39.14%+0.11 -0.0 12
1995-04-12 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-137.8 1286 996 71.70% 20.85% 7.45%+1.70 +7.3 14
1995-04-12 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-237.8 996 1286 7.45% 20.85% 71.70%-1.70 -7.3 4
1995-04-12 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-525.7 897 1592 1.58% 19.00% 79.41%-3.37 -7.3 1
1995-04-12 @ Interas Visaginas W 5-025.7 1592 897 79.41% 19.00% 1.58%+3.37 +7.3 23
1995-04-12 Inkaras Kaunas L 2-358.4 1414 1414 47.33% 21.52% 31.15%+0.20 -34.4 17
1995-04-12 @ Panerys W 3-258.4 1414 1414 31.15% 21.52% 47.33%-0.20 +34.4 19
1995-04-12 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-525.9 910 1713 0.88% 18.20% 80.93%-3.92 -4.0 7
1995-04-12 @ Musa Ukmerge W 5-025.9 1713 910 80.93% 18.20% 0.88%+3.92 +4.0 24
1995-04-17 FBK Kaunas W 2-144.2 1352 1293 54.46% 21.47% 24.07%+0.50 +20.9 17
1995-04-17 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-244.2 1293 1352 24.07% 21.47% 54.46%-0.50 -20.9 14
1995-04-17 Interas Visaginas D 0-050.3 953 890 54.94% 21.46% 23.60%+0.53 -6.4 6
1995-04-17 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-050.3 890 953 23.60% 21.46% 54.94%-0.53 +6.4 2
1995-04-17 Ekranas W 2-035.9 1449 1287 64.12% 21.27% 14.60%+1.03 +27.2 21
1995-04-17 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-235.9 1287 1449 14.60% 21.27% 64.12%-1.03 -27.2 15
1995-04-17 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 1-064.4 1347 1717 9.23% 20.85% 69.92%-1.70 +56.4 14
1995-04-17 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 0-164.4 1717 1347 69.92% 20.85% 9.23%+1.70 -56.4 24
1995-04-17 Musa Ukmerge W 5-025.3 1599 906 80.75% 18.43% 0.82%+3.77 +3.8 25
1995-04-17 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-525.3 906 1599 0.82% 18.43% 80.75%-3.77 -3.8 7
1995-04-17 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-030.3 1379 988 75.30% 20.39% 4.32%+2.21 +8.7 19
1995-04-17 @ Panerys L 0-230.3 988 1379 4.32% 20.39% 75.30%-2.21 -8.6 4
1995-04-21 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-342.2 1372 1476 33.13% 21.50% 45.37%-0.33 -78.9 17
1995-04-21 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 3-042.2 1476 1372 45.37% 21.50% 33.13%+0.33 +78.9 23
1995-04-21 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 0-239.7 1272 1404 29.52% 21.48% 49.00%-0.47 -49.5 14
1995-04-21 @ FBK Kaunas W 2-039.7 1404 1272 49.00% 21.48% 29.52%+0.47 +49.5 16
1995-04-21 Romar Mazeikiai W 3-052.2 1660 1603 54.32% 21.47% 24.21%+0.50 +61.0 26
1995-04-21 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-352.2 1603 1660 24.21% 21.47% 54.32%-0.50 -61.0 25
1995-04-22 Sirijus Klaipeda D 2-258.7 946 980 42.95% 21.53% 35.52%+0.03 -1.0 7
1995-04-22 @ Banga Gargzdai D 2-258.7 980 946 35.52% 21.53% 42.95%-0.03 +1.0 5
1995-04-22 Ekranas D 0-050.5 897 1260 9.55% 20.87% 69.58%-1.66 +13.4 3
1995-04-22 @ Interas Visaginas D 0-050.5 1260 897 69.58% 20.87% 9.55%+1.66 -13.4 16
1995-04-22 Panerys L 2-341.1 902 1388 4.96% 20.31% 74.73%-2.29 -4.7 7
1995-04-22 @ Musa Ukmerge W 3-241.1 1388 902 74.73% 20.31% 4.96%+2.29 +4.7 21
1995-04-30 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-230.1 946 1721 1.02% 18.40% 80.58%-3.78 -2.0 7
1995-04-30 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-030.1 1721 946 80.58% 18.40% 1.02%+3.78 +2.0 28
1995-04-30 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-138.6 1246 1542 13.56% 21.12% 65.32%-1.32 -13.5 16
1995-04-30 @ Ekranas W 1-038.6 1542 1246 65.32% 21.12% 13.56%+1.32 +13.5 27
1995-04-30 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-132.3 981 1555 3.06% 19.80% 77.14%-2.75 -3.2 5
1995-04-30 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-032.3 1555 981 77.14% 19.80% 3.06%+2.75 +3.2 25
1995-04-30 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-153.0 1453 1294 63.95% 21.28% 14.77%+1.02 -51.3 16
1995-04-30 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 1-053.0 1294 1453 14.77% 21.28% 63.95%-1.02 +51.3 19
1995-04-30 Interas Visaginas W 2-136.1 1393 910 77.51% 19.88% 2.62%+2.68 +2.6 23
1995-04-30 @ Panerys L 1-236.1 910 1393 2.62% 19.88% 77.51%-2.68 -2.6 3
1995-04-30 FBK Kaunas L 0-232.6 898 1223 11.66% 21.02% 67.32%-1.47 -22.1 7
1995-04-30 @ Musa Ukmerge W 2-032.6 1223 898 67.32% 21.02% 11.66%+1.47 +22.1 16
1995-05-03 Romar Mazeikiai W 1-055.1 1345 1556 20.63% 21.34% 58.02%-0.88 +46.5 21
1995-05-03 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-155.1 1556 1345 58.02% 21.34% 20.63%+0.88 -46.5 27
1995-05-03 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 1-062.1 1245 1723 5.16% 20.34% 74.50%-2.25 +60.5 18
1995-05-03 @ FBK Kaunas L 0-162.1 1723 1245 74.50% 20.34% 5.16%+2.25 -60.5 28
1995-05-03 Sirijus Klaipeda L 0-142.6 907 977 37.73% 21.52% 40.74%-0.16 -32.0 3
1995-05-03 @ Interas Visaginas W 1-042.6 977 907 40.74% 21.52% 37.73%+0.16 +31.9 7
1995-05-03 Banga Gargzdai W 5-130.3 1402 944 76.99% 20.02% 2.99%+2.56 +9.5 18
1995-05-03 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 1-530.3 944 1402 2.99% 20.02% 76.99%-2.56 -9.5 7
1995-05-03 Ekranas D 1-155.3 1395 1233 64.17% 21.27% 14.56%+1.04 -9.6 24
1995-05-03 @ Panerys D 1-155.3 1233 1395 14.56% 21.27% 64.17%-1.04 +9.6 17
1995-05-03 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-525.6 876 1558 1.69% 19.09% 79.22%-3.30 -7.8 7
1995-05-03 @ Musa Ukmerge W 5-025.6 1558 876 79.22% 19.09% 1.69%+3.30 +7.8 27
1995-05-07 Musa Ukmerge W 3-027.5 1391 868 78.29% 19.62% 2.09%+2.89 +6.1 23
1995-05-07 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-327.5 868 1391 2.09% 19.62% 78.29%-2.89 -6.1 7
1995-05-07 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius D 0-057.1 1243 1663 7.05% 20.63% 72.32%-1.96 +14.8 18
1995-05-07 @ Ekranas D 0-057.1 1663 1243 72.32% 20.63% 7.05%+1.96 -14.8 29
1995-05-07 Interas Visaginas W 4-132.3 1305 875 76.33% 20.18% 3.49%+2.41 +8.6 20
1995-05-07 @ FBK Kaunas L 1-432.3 875 1305 3.49% 20.18% 76.33%-2.41 -8.6 3
1995-05-07 Banga Gargzdai W 5-129.7 1566 934 79.96% 18.89% 1.15%+3.45 +3.6 29
1995-05-07 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-529.7 934 1566 1.15% 18.89% 79.96%-3.45 -3.6 7
1995-05-07 Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-136.8 1411 1009 75.60% 20.33% 4.07%+2.27 +4.1 20
1995-05-07 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 1-236.8 1009 1411 4.07% 20.33% 75.60%-2.27 -4.1 7
1995-05-07 Panerys W 1-042.8 1509 1386 60.97% 21.36% 17.67%+0.84 +17.0 29
1995-05-07 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 0-142.8 1386 1509 17.67% 21.36% 60.97%-0.84 -17.0 24
1995-05-11 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 3-147.6 1569 1415 63.55% 21.29% 15.16%+1.00 +24.3 31
1995-05-11 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-347.6 1415 1569 15.16% 21.29% 63.55%-1.00 -24.3 20
1995-05-12 Ekranas D 0-050.4 930 1257 11.55% 21.01% 67.44%-1.48 +12.3 8
1995-05-12 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-050.4 1257 930 67.44% 21.01% 11.55%+1.48 -12.3 19
1995-05-12 Romar Mazeikiai D 2-263.3 1314 1526 20.48% 21.34% 58.18%-0.89 +5.2 21
1995-05-12 @ FBK Kaunas D 2-263.3 1526 1314 58.18% 21.34% 20.48%+0.89 -5.2 30
1995-05-12 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 0-132.1 867 1397 3.88% 20.06% 76.06%-2.52 -4.1 3
1995-05-12 @ Interas Visaginas W 1-032.1 1397 867 76.06% 20.06% 3.88%+2.52 +4.1 25
1995-05-12 Musa Ukmerge L 0-150.0 1005 862 62.69% 21.32% 15.99%+0.94 -50.3 7
1995-05-12 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 1-050.0 862 1005 15.99% 21.32% 62.69%-0.94 +50.3 9
1995-05-12 Panerys W 4-038.9 1648 1369 71.22% 20.89% 7.89%+1.64 +29.3 31
1995-05-12 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-438.9 1369 1648 7.89% 20.89% 71.22%-1.64 -29.3 24
1995-05-25 Panerys D 1-154.4 943 1339 8.01% 20.74% 71.26%-1.83 +12.7 9
1995-05-25 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-154.4 1339 943 71.26% 20.74% 8.01%+1.83 -12.7 25
1995-05-25 FBK Kaunas D 0-051.0 1245 1319 37.15% 21.52% 41.33%-0.18 +0.8 20
1995-05-25 @ Ekranas D 0-051.0 1319 1245 41.33% 21.52% 37.15%+0.18 -0.8 22
1995-05-25 Interas Visaginas W 8-025.2 1594 863 81.19% 18.14% 0.67%+3.96 +4.7 33
1995-05-25 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 0-825.2 863 1594 0.67% 18.14% 81.19%-3.96 -4.7 3
1995-05-25 Romar Mazeikiai L 0-427.0 955 1521 3.20% 19.85% 76.95%-2.70 -12.1 7
1995-05-25 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 4-027.0 1521 955 76.95% 19.85% 3.20%+2.70 +12.1 32
1995-05-25 Musa Ukmerge W 3-027.8 1391 912 77.43% 19.90% 2.67%+2.66 +7.8 22
1995-05-25 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai L 0-327.8 912 1391 2.67% 19.90% 77.43%-2.66 -7.8 9
1995-05-25 PSK Aras Klaipeda W 3-042.5 1677 1402 71.05% 20.91% 8.04%+1.62 +22.9 33
1995-05-25 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 0-342.5 1402 1677 8.04% 20.91% 71.05%-1.62 -22.9 25
1995-06-02 PSK Aras Klaipeda L 1-245.6 1246 1379 29.33% 21.47% 49.20%-0.48 -24.6 20
1995-06-02 @ Ekranas W 2-145.6 1379 1246 49.20% 21.47% 29.33%+0.48 +24.6 27
1995-06-02 Panerys D 0-051.6 1318 1327 46.35% 21.52% 32.13%+0.16 -2.8 23
1995-06-02 @ FBK Kaunas D 0-051.6 1327 1318 32.13% 21.52% 46.35%-0.16 +2.8 26
1995-06-02 Romar Mazeikiai W 2-157.2 1599 1533 55.24% 21.46% 23.30%+0.54 +20.4 35
1995-06-02 @ Inkaras Kaunas L 1-257.2 1533 1599 23.30% 21.46% 55.24%-0.54 -20.3 32
1995-06-02 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 1-053.8 858 1399 3.68% 20.00% 76.32%-2.57 +62.0 5
1995-06-02 @ Interas Visaginas L 0-153.8 1399 858 76.32% 20.00% 3.68%+2.57 -62.0 22
1995-06-02 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius L 2-438.1 943 1700 1.12% 18.54% 80.33%-3.69 -1.7 7
1995-06-02 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 4-238.1 1700 943 80.33% 18.54% 1.12%+3.69 +1.7 35
1995-06-02 Banga Gargzdai L 2-352.0 904 955 40.40% 21.53% 38.07%-0.06 -30.2 9
1995-06-02 @ Musa Ukmerge W 3-252.0 955 904 38.07% 21.53% 40.40%+0.06 +30.2 11
1995-06-11 Panerys L 1-254.9 1403 1329 56.15% 21.45% 22.40%+0.58 -42.5 27
1995-06-11 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda W 2-154.9 1329 1403 22.40% 21.45% 56.15%-0.58 +42.5 28
1995-06-14 Ekranas L 1-240.0 941 1221 14.68% 21.16% 64.16%-1.24 -13.6 7
1995-06-14 @ Sirijus Klaipeda W 2-140.0 1221 941 64.16% 21.16% 14.68%+1.24 +13.6 22
1995-06-16 FBK Kaunas D 1-154.4 986 1316 11.37% 21.00% 67.63%-1.49 +11.1 12
1995-06-16 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-154.4 1316 986 67.63% 21.00% 11.37%+1.49 -11.1 24
1995-06-16 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai W 4-351.6 1513 1337 65.19% 21.23% 13.57%+1.11 +11.8 34
1995-06-16 @ Romar Mazeikiai L 3-451.6 1337 1513 13.57% 21.23% 65.19%-1.11 -11.8 22
1995-06-16 Interas Visaginas W 1-042.5 874 920 41.15% 21.53% 37.32%-0.03 +31.7 11
1995-06-16 @ Musa Ukmerge L 0-142.5 920 874 37.32% 21.53% 41.15%+0.03 -31.7 5
1995-06-16 Inkaras Kaunas D 0-068.6 1702 1619 57.10% 21.43% 21.46%+0.63 -7.4 36
1995-06-16 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius D 0-068.6 1619 1702 21.46% 21.43% 57.10%-0.63 +7.4 36

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1995-06-19 Inkaras Kaunas L 0-262.1 1695 1626 48.55% 21.50% 29.95%+0.35 -74.2 0-1
1995-06-19 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius W 2-062.1 1626 1695 29.95% 21.50% 48.55%-0.35 +74.2 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-06-02 3.68% @ Interas Visaginas 858 1 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1399 0
2 1995-05-03 5.16% @ FBK Kaunas 1245 1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1723 0
3 1995-04-17 9.23% @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1347 1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1717 0
4 1995-04-30 14.77% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1294 1 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1453 0
5 1994-09-11 14.91% Panerys 1229 2 @ Ekranas 1386 0
6 1995-05-12 15.99% Musa Ukmerge 862 1 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 1005 0
7 1994-10-16 18.82% PSK Aras Klaipeda 1203 1 @ FBK Kaunas 1314 0
8 1995-05-03 20.63% @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1345 1 Romar Mazeikiai 1556 0
9 1995-06-11 22.40% Panerys 1329 2 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1403 1
10 1994-09-11 28.63% Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1092 2 @ Banga Gargzdai 1111 1
11 1995-06-19 * 29.95% Inkaras Kaunas 1626 2 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1695 0
12 1994-10-15 31.04% Inkaras Kaunas 1361 1 @ Ekranas 1361 0
13 1994-07-25 31.13% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 1363 3 @ Interas Visaginas 1362 0
14 1995-04-12 31.15% Inkaras Kaunas 1414 3 @ Panerys 1414 2
15 1994-08-21 32.34% Inkaras Kaunas 1233 3 @ Banga Gargzdai 1223 0
16 1994-08-05 32.74% @ Inkaras Kaunas 1133 1 PSK Aras Klaipeda 1239 0
17 1994-09-23 34.33% Ekranas 1293 2 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1268 1
18 1994-09-18 35.22% Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1130 9 @ Musa Ukmerge 1099 1
19 1995-06-02 38.07% Banga Gargzdai 955 3 @ Musa Ukmerge 904 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-09-18 201.63 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 9 1130 35.22% @ Musa Ukmerge 1 1099 43.25% 21.53%
2 1994-08-31 129.85 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 6 1506 51.00% @ Panerys 0 1359 27.55% 21.46%
3 1994-07-23 106.62 @ Romar Mazeikiai 4 1336 43.92% Banga Gargzdai 0 1362 34.55% 21.53%
4 1994-07-25 105.43 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1363 31.13% @ Interas Visaginas 0 1362 47.35% 21.52%
5 1994-08-21 103.09 Inkaras Kaunas 3 1233 32.34% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1223 46.13% 21.52%
6 1994-09-11 96.58 Panerys 2 1229 14.91% @ Ekranas 0 1386 63.81% 21.28%
7 1994-08-21 80.71 FBK Kaunas 3 1271 44.41% @ Interas Visaginas 0 1175 34.08% 21.51%
8 1995-04-21 78.90 Inkaras Kaunas 3 1476 45.37% @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 0 1372 33.13% 21.50%
9 1995-06-19 * 74.20 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1626 29.95% @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1695 48.55% 21.50%
10 1994-08-05 71.89 @ Panerys 5 1288 61.87% Musa Ukmerge 0 1154 16.79% 21.34%
11 1994-10-23 68.80 PSK Aras Klaipeda 6 1251 58.79% @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1033 19.88% 21.33%
12 1994-08-30 64.80 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 9 1235 62.47% Interas Visaginas 2 1094 16.21% 21.32%
13 1994-08-14 62.90 @ Inkaras Kaunas 3 1170 53.42% Sirijus Klaipeda 0 1121 25.10% 21.48%
14 1995-06-02 62.02 @ Interas Visaginas 1 858 3.68% Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 0 1399 76.32% 20.00%
15 1995-04-21 61.05 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1660 54.32% Romar Mazeikiai 0 1603 24.21% 21.47%
16 1994-08-14 60.73 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 4 1409 61.06% Banga Gargzdai 0 1284 17.59% 21.36%
17 1995-05-03 60.48 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1245 5.16% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1723 74.50% 20.34%
18 1994-08-05 59.46 @ Romar Mazeikiai 5 1443 44.02% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 2 1468 34.45% 21.53%
19 1995-04-17 56.44 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1 1347 9.23% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1717 69.92% 20.85%
20 1994-10-23 51.86 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 2 1321 47.21% Ekranas 0 1323 31.27% 21.52%
21 1995-04-30 51.34 PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 1294 14.77% @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 0 1453 63.95% 21.28%
22 1994-09-11 50.83 @ Sirijus Klaipeda 2 1034 47.99% Interas Visaginas 0 1029 30.50% 21.52%
23 1995-05-12 50.28 Musa Ukmerge 1 862 15.99% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 0 1005 62.69% 21.32%
24 1994-08-20 49.75 Romar Mazeikiai 3 1494 42.96% @ Panerys 1 1408 35.53% 21.52%
25 1995-04-21 49.48 Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 2 1404 49.00% @ FBK Kaunas 0 1272 29.52% 21.48%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-06-16 68.6 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1702 57.10% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1619 21.46% 21.43%
2 1995-04-17 64.4 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 1 1347 9.23% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1717 69.92% 20.85%
3 1995-05-12 63.3 @ FBK Kaunas 2 1314 20.48% Romar Mazeikiai 2 1526 58.18% 21.34%
4 1995-05-03 62.1 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1245 5.16% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1723 74.50% 20.34%
5 1995-06-19 * 62.1 Inkaras Kaunas 2 1626 29.95% @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1695 48.55% 21.50%
6 1994-10-23 62.0 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1400 49.28% Panerys 2 1385 29.20% 21.51%
7 1994-09-23 59.3 @ Romar Mazeikiai 0 1596 68.17% Inkaras Kaunas 0 1375 10.73% 21.10%
8 1995-04-22 58.7 @ Banga Gargzdai 2 946 42.95% Sirijus Klaipeda 2 980 35.52% 21.53%
9 1995-04-12 58.4 Inkaras Kaunas 3 1414 31.15% @ Panerys 2 1414 47.33% 21.52%
10 1995-06-02 57.2 @ Inkaras Kaunas 2 1599 55.24% Romar Mazeikiai 1 1533 23.30% 21.46%
11 1995-05-07 57.1 @ Ekranas 0 1243 7.05% Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 0 1663 72.32% 20.63%
12 1994-08-14 57.0 @ Romar Mazeikiai 0 1502 58.44% Ekranas 0 1406 20.15% 21.41%
13 1995-05-03 55.3 @ Panerys 1 1395 64.17% Ekranas 1 1233 14.56% 21.27%
14 1995-05-03 55.1 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 1345 20.63% Romar Mazeikiai 0 1556 58.02% 21.34%
15 1994-09-18 55.0 @ FBK Kaunas 1 1297 48.34% Ekranas 1 1290 30.15% 21.52%
16 1995-06-11 54.9 Panerys 2 1329 22.40% @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 1403 56.15% 21.45%
17 1995-05-25 54.4 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 943 8.01% Panerys 1 1339 71.26% 20.74%
18 1995-06-16 54.4 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 986 11.37% FBK Kaunas 1 1316 67.63% 21.00%
19 1994-09-24 54.2 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1024 61.26% Musa Ukmerge 1 897 17.39% 21.35%
20 1994-10-02 54.1 @ Interas Visaginas 1 938 51.48% Musa Ukmerge 1 906 27.02% 21.50%
21 1995-06-02 53.8 @ Interas Visaginas 1 858 3.68% Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 0 1399 76.32% 20.00%
22 1995-04-30 53.0 PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 1294 14.77% @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 0 1453 63.95% 21.28%
23 1995-04-21 52.2 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1660 54.32% Romar Mazeikiai 0 1603 24.21% 21.47%
24 1995-06-02 52.0 Banga Gargzdai 3 955 38.07% @ Musa Ukmerge 2 904 40.40% 21.53%
25 1994-09-24 51.8 @ Panerys 0 1375 56.87% FBK Kaunas 0 1294 21.69% 21.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-10-23 25.2 @ Romar Mazeikiai 6 1583 80.57% Interas Visaginas 0 904 0.89% 18.54%
2 1995-05-25 25.2 @ Inkaras Kaunas 8 1594 81.19% Interas Visaginas 0 863 0.67% 18.14%
3 1995-04-17 25.3 @ Romar Mazeikiai 5 1599 80.75% Musa Ukmerge 0 906 0.82% 18.43%
4 1995-05-03 25.6 Inkaras Kaunas 5 1558 79.22% @ Musa Ukmerge 0 876 1.69% 19.09%
5 1995-04-12 25.7 Romar Mazeikiai 5 1592 79.41% @ Interas Visaginas 0 897 1.58% 19.00%
6 1995-04-12 25.9 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 5 1713 80.93% @ Musa Ukmerge 0 910 0.88% 18.20%
7 1994-10-23 26.4 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 4 1710 81.76% Musa Ukmerge 0 928 0.51% 17.73%
8 1995-05-25 27.0 Romar Mazeikiai 4 1521 76.95% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 0 955 3.20% 19.85%
9 1995-04-08 27.3 @ Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 3 1712 82.10% Interas Visaginas 0 899 0.43% 17.48%
10 1995-05-07 27.5 @ PSK Aras Klaipeda 3 1391 78.29% Musa Ukmerge 0 868 2.09% 19.62%
11 1995-05-25 27.8 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 3 1391 77.43% Musa Ukmerge 0 912 2.67% 19.90%
12 1994-09-18 28.2 @ Panerys 6 1325 69.88% Banga Gargzdai 0 1073 9.12% 20.99%
13 1995-04-08 28.8 @ Ekranas 3 1271 73.84% Musa Ukmerge 0 926 5.55% 20.61%
14 1994-10-01 29.0 @ Ekranas 4 1327 69.69% Sirijus Klaipeda 0 1079 9.30% 21.01%
15 1995-05-07 29.7 @ Inkaras Kaunas 5 1566 79.96% Banga Gargzdai 1 934 1.15% 18.89%
16 1995-04-08 30.0 Romar Mazeikiai 2 1587 78.17% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 964 2.34% 19.49%
17 1994-09-18 30.1 Inkaras Kaunas 3 1349 69.94% @ Interas Visaginas 0 979 9.21% 20.85%
18 1995-04-30 30.1 Zalgiris-EBSW Vilnius 2 1721 80.58% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 946 1.02% 18.40%
19 1995-04-17 30.3 @ Panerys 2 1379 75.30% Sirijus Klaipeda 0 988 4.32% 20.39%
20 1995-05-03 30.3 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 5 1402 76.99% Banga Gargzdai 1 944 2.99% 20.02%
21 1994-08-05 30.8 @ Panerys 5 1288 61.87% Musa Ukmerge 0 1154 16.79% 21.34%
22 1994-09-24 30.9 @ Kareda-Sakalas Siauliai 5 1331 74.94% Interas Visaginas 1 953 4.62% 20.45%
23 1994-09-18 31.0 @ Romar Mazeikiai 2 1591 77.98% Sirijus Klaipeda 0 1085 2.29% 19.73%
24 1995-05-12 32.1 PSK Aras Klaipeda 1 1397 76.06% @ Interas Visaginas 0 867 3.88% 20.06%
25 1995-04-30 32.3 Inkaras Kaunas 1 1555 77.14% @ Sirijus Klaipeda 0 981 3.06% 19.80%