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2012 A Lyga Season

167 games

Final

Champion

Ekranas

82 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

VMFD Zalgiris

8.01 points above expected

81 points · 72.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tauras Taurage

12.61 points below expected

20 points · 32.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ekranas 34 25 7 2 82 77 25 +52 77.66 +4.34
2 VMFD Zalgiris 34 25 6 3 81 73 22 +51 72.99 +8.01
3 Suduva 34 19 7 8 64 71 37 +34 66.01 -2.01
4 Kruoja Pakruojis 34 18 5 11 59 50 31 +19 52.73 +6.27
5 FK Siauliai 35 16 4 15 52 76 57 +19 56.49 -4.49
6 Banga Gargzdai 35 12 8 15 44 40 41 -1 46.39 -2.39
7 Dainava Alytus 35 8 5 22 29 39 71 -32 36.55 -7.55
8 Atlantas 35 6 6 23 24 30 92 -62 17.00 +7.00
9 Tauras Taurage 35 6 2 27 20 32 96 -64 32.61 -12.61
10 REO Vilnius 23 5 4 14 19 26 42 -16 15.17 +3.83

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 VMFD Zalgiris 81 72.99 +8.01
2 Atlantas 24 17.00 +7.00
3 Kruoja Pakruojis 59 52.73 +6.27
4 Ekranas 82 77.66 +4.34
5 REO Vilnius 19 15.17 +3.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tauras Taurage 20 32.61 -12.61
2 Dainava Alytus 29 36.55 -7.55
3 FK Siauliai 52 56.49 -4.49
4 Banga Gargzdai 44 46.39 -2.39
5 Suduva 64 66.01 -2.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VMFD Zalgiris 11 Aug 19 – Nov 11 1 in 80
2 Ekranas 11 Mar 17 – May 12 1 in 69
3 Atlantas 2 Aug 11 – Aug 18 1 in 58
4 Kruoja Pakruojis 4 Apr 6 – Apr 21 1 in 20
5 Banga Gargzdai 4 Jul 20 – Aug 10 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 REO Vilnius 7 Jun 20 – Aug 18 1 in 184
2 Banga Gargzdai 4 Apr 1 – Apr 18 1 in 41
3 Dainava Alytus 7 Aug 26 – Oct 21 1 in 25
4 FK Siauliai 4 Mar 24 – Apr 14 1 in 21
5 Tauras Taurage 8 Sep 15 – Nov 11 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Banga Gargzdai 8 Jun 29 – Sep 1 1 in 110
2 Ekranas 28 Mar 17 – Sep 30 1 in 87
3 Kruoja Pakruojis 8 May 13 – Jun 30 1 in 86
4 VMFD Zalgiris 18 Jun 20 – Nov 11 1 in 65
5 Atlantas 3 Mar 25 – Apr 7 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tauras Taurage 13 Aug 11 – Nov 11 1 in 27
2 Ekranas 3 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 27
3 Banga Gargzdai 8 May 11 – Jun 29 1 in 25
4 FK Siauliai 7 Mar 24 – Apr 27 1 in 24
5 REO Vilnius 7 Jun 20 – Aug 18 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ekranas 1672 82 +21 12 11.1 +0.9
VMFD Zalgiris 1644 81 +57 15 10.7 +4.3
Suduva 1484 64 +39 10 9.9 +0.1
Kruoja Pakruojis 1401 59 +17 10 8.5 +1.5
FK Siauliai 1371 52 -52 4 7.6 -3.6
Banga Gargzdai 1337 44 -30 6 6.1 -0.1
Dainava Alytus 1066 29 +14 4 3.0 +1.0
Atlantas 1019 24 +19 4 3.0 +1.0
Tauras Taurage 928 20 -92 0 3.2 -3.2
REO Vilnius 1089 19 -119 0 6.3 -6.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL BG DA EKR FS KP RV SUD TT VZ
Atlantas —
1-2-1
1.94
2-1-1
2.63
0-0-4
0.81
0-0-4
1.67
1-0-3
1.70
1-1-1
2.34
0-0-4
1.12
1-2-1
4.04
0-0-4
0.93
Banga Gargzdai
1-2-1
9.43
 —
3-1-0
6.15
0-1-3
1.91
3-0-1
4.11
1-1-2
4.53
1-1-1
5.33
0-1-3
3.09
3-0-1
7.74
0-1-3
2.67
Dainava Alytus
1-1-2
8.71
0-1-3
5.18
 —
0-1-3
1.39
1-1-2
3.35
0-1-3
3.53
2-0-1
4.69
0-0-4
2.10
4-0-0
5.64
0-0-4
1.62
Ekranas
4-0-0
10.65
3-1-0
9.45
3-1-0
10.02
 —
3-1-0
8.41
3-1-0
8.71
2-0-0
4.63
2-1-1
7.21
4-0-0
9.97
1-2-1
6.60
FK Siauliai
4-0-0
9.71
1-0-3
7.21
2-1-1
7.99
0-1-3
2.92
 —
3-0-1
5.67
2-0-1
6.09
1-1-2
4.43
3-0-1
8.25
0-1-3
3.35
Kruoja Pakruojis
3-0-1
9.68
2-1-1
6.78
3-1-0
7.80
0-1-3
2.63
1-0-3
5.65
 —
1-1-0
3.67
3-1-0
3.64
4-0-0
7.54
1-0-3
3.20
REO Vilnius
1-1-1
6.16
1-1-1
3.16
1-0-2
3.80
0-0-2
1.05
1-0-2
2.41
0-1-1
1.99
 —
0-1-1
1.28
0-0-3
4.71
1-0-1
0.97
Suduva
4-0-0
10.30
3-1-0
8.24
4-0-0
9.26
1-1-2
4.11
2-1-1
6.89
0-1-3
7.68
1-1-0
4.39
 —
4-0-0
9.08
0-2-2
5.04
Tauras Taurage
1-2-1
7.29
1-0-3
3.59
0-0-4
5.68
0-0-4
1.43
1-0-3
3.10
0-0-4
3.79
3-0-0
3.78
0-0-4
2.28
 —
0-0-4
1.59
VMFD Zalgiris
4-0-0
10.52
3-1-0
8.67
4-0-0
9.76
1-2-1
4.72
3-1-0
7.98
3-0-1
8.14
1-0-1
4.71
2-2-0
6.28
4-0-0
9.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +10.5
Allowed 0.63 -7.1
Differential 0.87 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.59%9.28%6.59%2.69%3.29%2.40%30.84%
19.28%3.59%6.89%2.99%1.50%1.20%25.45%
26.59%6.89%4.79%1.80%1.50%0.60%22.16%
32.69%2.99%1.80%1.20%0.60%0.60%9.88%
43.29%1.50%1.50%0.60%——6.89%
5+2.40%1.20%0.60%0.60%——4.79%
Total30.84%25.45%22.16%9.88%6.89%4.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.54 +0.00
SD 1.52 1.52 2.31
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 167

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.57%11.43%5.71%8.57%2.86%14.29%51.43%
12.86%5.71%5.71%2.86%—8.57%25.71%
2—8.57%2.86%——2.86%14.29%
3————2.86%—2.86%
4—2.86%2.86%———5.71%
5+———————
Total11.43%28.57%17.14%11.43%5.71%25.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.63 -1.77
SD 1.14 2.04 2.45
CV 1.33 0.78 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.57%14.29%11.43%5.71%——40.00%
111.43%8.57%5.71%2.86%——28.57%
2—11.43%5.71%2.86%——20.00%
3—2.86%————2.86%
45.71%—————5.71%
5+2.86%—————2.86%
Total28.57%37.14%22.86%11.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.17 -0.03
SD 1.31 0.98 1.84
CV 1.15 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.57%5.71%8.57%8.57%5.71%2.86%40.00%
15.71%—14.29%5.71%——25.71%
25.71%—2.86%5.71%5.71%—20.00%
3—5.71%2.86%2.86%——11.43%
4——2.86%———2.86%
5+———————
Total20.00%11.43%31.43%22.86%11.43%2.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.03 -0.91
SD 1.16 1.38 1.84
CV 1.04 0.68 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%—————5.88%
114.71%5.88%2.94%2.94%——26.47%
220.59%5.88%8.82%———35.29%
311.76%—5.88%———17.65%
4———2.94%——2.94%
5+5.88%2.94%2.94%———11.76%
Total58.82%14.71%20.59%5.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.26 0.74 +1.53
SD 1.50 0.99 1.66
CV 0.66 1.35 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—17.14%2.86%2.86%——22.86%
18.57%—5.71%2.86%5.71%—22.86%
25.71%5.71%5.71%—2.86%—20.00%
32.86%——5.71%2.86%—11.43%
45.71%—2.86%———8.57%
5+2.86%2.86%2.86%5.71%——14.29%
Total25.71%25.71%20.00%17.14%11.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.63 +0.54
SD 2.02 1.35 2.38
CV 0.93 0.83 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%14.71%5.88%—2.94%—26.47%
114.71%8.82%8.82%———32.35%
28.82%14.71%2.94%———26.47%
3—2.94%————2.94%
45.88%—————5.88%
5+2.94%2.94%————5.88%
Total35.29%44.12%17.65%—2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 0.91 +0.56
SD 1.40 0.90 1.91
CV 0.95 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.70%8.70%17.39%———34.78%
113.04%—13.04%——4.35%30.43%
2——8.70%8.70%4.35%—21.74%
34.35%4.35%———4.35%13.04%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.09%13.04%39.13%8.70%4.35%8.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.83 -0.70
SD 1.06 1.61 1.66
CV 0.94 0.88 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 23

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%5.88%2.94%—2.94%—20.59%
18.82%2.94%8.82%———20.59%
25.88%2.94%5.88%2.94%——17.65%
35.88%8.82%2.94%2.94%——20.59%
42.94%8.82%2.94%———14.71%
5+2.94%2.94%————5.88%
Total35.29%32.35%23.53%5.88%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.09 +1.00
SD 1.62 1.06 2.02
CV 0.78 0.97 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.86%8.57%11.43%—17.14%5.71%45.71%
15.71%2.86%5.71%11.43%8.57%—34.29%
22.86%———2.86%2.86%8.57%
3——5.71%——2.86%8.57%
4———————
5+2.86%—————2.86%
Total14.29%11.43%22.86%11.43%28.57%11.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 2.74 -1.83
SD 1.17 1.85 2.24
CV 1.28 0.68 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 35

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%5.88%2.94%———20.59%
18.82%—————8.82%
214.71%17.65%5.88%———38.24%
32.94%5.88%————8.82%
411.76%2.94%2.94%2.94%——20.59%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total52.94%32.35%11.76%2.94%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.15 0.65 +1.50
SD 1.62 0.81 1.76
CV 0.75 1.26 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 34

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ekranas 1672 82 80.50 +1.50 65.0% 63 71 76 80 85 90 97
VMFD Zalgiris 1644 81 75.83 +5.17 79.0% 55 63 71 77 81 87 91
Suduva 1484 64 68.85 -4.85 28.0% 51 56 64 69 74 80 89
Kruoja Pakruojis 1401 59 55.57 +3.43 68.0% 40 44 50 55 62 68 74
FK Siauliai 1371 52 57.91 -5.91 26.0% 44 47 52 57 63 70 78
Banga Gargzdai 1337 44 47.81 -3.81 33.0% 33 37 43 47 52 60 71
REO Vilnius 1089 19 33.60 -14.60 1.0% 14 23 28 32 38 46 50
Dainava Alytus 1066 29 37.97 -8.97 11.0% 24 27 33 36 42 50 56
Atlantas 1019 24 18.42 +5.58 86.0% 5 8 14 18 22 27 32
Tauras Taurage 928 20 34.03 -14.03 0.0% 21 23 29 33 40 44 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.77%
Strong Edge
50.30%16.17%33.53%
Elo Value
Home Edge
182 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
058.81500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
Ekranas, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.37 * Some Luck: 5.37 to 8.06 * Lucky: 8.06 to 10.74 * Wild Swing: 10.74 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.49 * Close: 0.49 to 0.73 * Off: 0.73 to 0.97 * Way Off: 0.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.84 points
Some Luck
06.7117
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Close
00.611.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.46%
VMFD Zalgiris
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.62%
Tauras Taurage
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 263.24
3.02
Wide Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ekranas59.00%31.00%9.00%1.00%——————
VMFD Zalgiris31.00%46.00%18.00%4.00%1.00%—————
Suduva9.00%19.00%51.00%14.00%6.00%1.00%————
Kruoja Pakruojis—2.00%11.00%27.00%36.00%20.00%3.00%1.00%——
FK Siauliai1.00%1.00%11.00%45.00%33.00%8.00%1.00%———
Banga Gargzdai—1.00%—7.00%21.00%48.00%16.00%7.00%——
Dainava Alytus———1.00%1.00%12.00%32.00%34.00%20.00%—
Atlantas————————7.00%93.00%
Tauras Taurage———1.00%—5.00%28.00%28.00%35.00%3.00%
REO Vilnius————2.00%6.00%20.00%30.00%38.00%4.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Banga Gargzdai 100% —
Dainava Alytus 100% —
Ekranas 100% —
FK Siauliai 100% —
Kruoja Pakruojis 100% —
Suduva 100% —
VMFD Zalgiris 100% —
Tauras Taurage 97.00% 3.00%
REO Vilnius 96.00% 4.00%
Atlantas 7.00% 93.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2012-03-10 FK Siauliai L 0-328.1 1013 1326 13.76% 16.41% 69.83%-1.40 -20.9 0
2012-03-10 @ Atlantas W 3-028.1 1326 1013 69.83% 16.41% 13.76%+1.40 +20.9 3
2012-03-10 Tauras Taurage W 1-042.3 1263 1317 42.12% 17.15% 40.73%+0.03 +20.1 3
2012-03-10 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-142.3 1317 1263 40.73% 17.15% 42.12%-0.03 -20.1 0
2012-03-10 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-245.2 1280 1408 31.94% 17.09% 50.97%-0.38 -15.4 0
2012-03-10 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-145.2 1408 1280 50.97% 17.09% 31.94%+0.38 +15.4 3
2012-03-11 Ekranas W 3-150.5 1449 1487 44.41% 17.15% 38.45%+0.12 +31.2 3
2012-03-11 @ Suduva L 1-350.5 1487 1449 38.45% 17.15% 44.41%-0.12 -31.2 0
2012-03-11 REO Vilnius W 3-248.1 1244 1223 52.36% 17.08% 30.56%+0.44 +14.1 3
2012-03-11 @ Dainava Alytus L 2-348.1 1223 1244 30.56% 17.08% 52.36%-0.44 -14.1 0
2012-03-17 Atlantas W 7-024.3 1423 992 81.32% 14.61% 4.07%+2.70 +13.9 6
2012-03-17 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-724.3 992 1423 4.07% 14.61% 81.32%-2.70 -13.9 0
2012-03-17 Ekranas L 0-136.3 1209 1456 18.94% 16.74% 64.32%-1.04 -10.3 0
2012-03-17 @ REO Vilnius W 1-036.3 1456 1209 64.32% 16.74% 18.94%+1.04 +10.3 3
2012-03-17 Suduva L 1-439.5 1297 1480 25.29% 16.97% 57.74%-0.69 -30.8 0
2012-03-17 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-139.5 1480 1297 57.74% 16.97% 25.29%+0.69 +30.8 6
2012-03-18 Banga Gargzdai D 0-052.0 1258 1264 48.74% 17.12% 34.14%+0.29 -1.8 4
2012-03-18 @ Dainava Alytus D 0-052.0 1264 1258 34.14% 17.12% 48.74%-0.29 +1.8 1
2012-03-18 Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-142.6 1347 1283 57.56% 16.97% 25.47%+0.68 +12.7 6
2012-03-18 @ FK Siauliai L 1-242.6 1283 1347 25.47% 16.97% 57.56%-0.68 -12.6 3
2012-03-24 FK Siauliai W 4-139.3 1511 1360 66.26% 16.64% 17.10%+1.15 +21.6 9
2012-03-24 @ Suduva L 1-439.3 1360 1511 17.10% 16.64% 66.26%-1.15 -21.6 6
2012-03-24 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-139.3 1270 1437 27.18% 17.01% 55.81%-0.60 -14.2 3
2012-03-24 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-039.3 1437 1270 55.81% 17.01% 27.18%+0.60 +14.2 9
2012-03-25 Dainava Alytus D 0-051.7 978 1256 16.36% 16.60% 67.05%-1.21 +6.6 1
2012-03-25 @ Atlantas D 0-051.7 1256 978 67.05% 16.60% 16.36%+1.21 -6.6 5
2012-03-25 REO Vilnius D 2-260.7 1266 1198 57.95% 16.96% 25.08%+0.70 -2.7 2
2012-03-25 @ Banga Gargzdai D 2-260.7 1198 1266 25.08% 16.96% 57.95%-0.70 +2.7 1
2012-03-25 Tauras Taurage W 5-028.9 1466 1266 70.15% 16.39% 13.46%+1.42 +33.0 6
2012-03-25 @ Ekranas L 0-528.9 1266 1466 13.46% 16.39% 70.15%-1.42 -33.0 0
2012-03-30 Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-052.0 1250 1256 48.75% 17.12% 34.13%+0.29 -1.8 6
2012-03-30 @ Dainava Alytus D 0-052.0 1256 1250 34.13% 17.12% 48.75%-0.29 +1.8 4
2012-03-31 Ekranas L 0-142.1 1338 1499 27.92% 17.03% 55.05%-0.56 -14.5 6
2012-03-31 @ FK Siauliai W 1-042.1 1499 1338 55.05% 17.03% 27.92%+0.56 +14.5 9
2012-03-31 Tauras Taurage L 0-143.1 1201 1233 45.24% 17.14% 37.62%+0.15 -21.9 1
2012-03-31 @ REO Vilnius W 1-043.1 1233 1201 37.62% 17.14% 45.24%-0.15 +21.9 3
2012-04-01 Atlantas L 0-151.4 1263 985 75.07% 15.88% 9.06%+1.86 -35.6 2
2012-04-01 @ Banga Gargzdai W 1-051.4 985 1263 9.06% 15.88% 75.07%-1.86 +35.6 4
2012-04-01 Suduva W 4-045.7 1451 1533 38.22% 17.15% 44.63%-0.12 +77.5 12
2012-04-01 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-445.7 1533 1451 44.63% 17.15% 38.22%+0.12 -77.5 9
2012-04-06 Banga Gargzdai W 1-038.5 1258 1228 53.44% 17.06% 29.50%+0.49 +15.3 7
2012-04-06 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-138.5 1228 1258 29.50% 17.06% 53.44%-0.49 -15.3 2
2012-04-07 Dainava Alytus W 3-136.9 1455 1248 70.66% 16.34% 12.99%+1.46 +11.8 12
2012-04-07 @ Suduva L 1-336.9 1248 1455 12.99% 16.34% 70.66%-1.46 -11.8 6
2012-04-07 REO Vilnius D 0-051.5 1020 1179 28.16% 17.03% 54.80%-0.55 +3.3 5
2012-04-07 @ Atlantas D 0-051.5 1179 1020 54.80% 17.03% 28.16%+0.55 -3.3 2
2012-04-07 VMFD Zalgiris W 1-051.4 1514 1529 47.52% 17.13% 35.35%+0.24 +17.8 12
2012-04-07 @ Ekranas L 0-151.4 1529 1514 35.35% 17.13% 47.52%-0.24 -17.8 12
2012-04-09 FK Siauliai W 1-042.9 1255 1324 39.97% 17.15% 42.88%-0.06 +21.0 6
2012-04-09 @ Tauras Taurage L 0-142.9 1324 1255 42.88% 17.15% 39.97%+0.06 -21.0 6
2012-04-14 FK Siauliai W 3-147.0 1176 1303 32.07% 17.10% 50.83%-0.38 +39.7 5
2012-04-14 @ REO Vilnius L 1-347.0 1303 1176 50.83% 17.10% 32.07%+0.38 -39.7 6
2012-04-14 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-134.8 1024 1273 18.75% 16.73% 64.52%-1.05 -10.2 5
2012-04-14 @ Atlantas W 1-034.8 1273 1024 64.52% 16.73% 18.75%+1.05 +10.2 10
2012-04-14 Suduva L 0-136.2 1213 1467 18.30% 16.71% 64.99%-1.08 -10.0 2
2012-04-14 @ Banga Gargzdai W 1-036.2 1467 1213 64.99% 16.71% 18.30%+1.08 +10.0 15
2012-04-15 Ekranas L 0-136.5 1236 1531 15.04% 16.51% 68.45%-1.30 -8.3 6
2012-04-15 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-036.5 1531 1236 68.45% 16.51% 15.04%+1.30 +8.3 15
2012-04-15 Tauras Taurage W 2-032.8 1511 1276 72.54% 16.17% 11.29%+1.62 +11.9 15
2012-04-15 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-232.8 1276 1511 11.29% 16.17% 72.54%-1.62 -11.9 6
2012-04-17 Atlantas W 6-023.7 1477 1013 82.27% 14.30% 3.43%+2.87 +10.0 18
2012-04-17 @ Suduva L 0-623.7 1013 1477 3.43% 14.30% 82.27%-2.87 -10.0 5
2012-04-17 REO Vilnius W 2-141.8 1283 1215 57.94% 16.96% 25.10%+0.70 +12.5 13
2012-04-17 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-241.8 1215 1283 25.10% 16.96% 57.94%-0.70 -12.5 5
2012-04-18 Banga Gargzdai W 3-028.1 1540 1203 77.88% 15.43% 6.69%+2.18 +10.3 18
2012-04-18 @ Ekranas L 0-328.1 1203 1540 6.69% 15.43% 77.88%-2.18 -10.3 2
2012-04-18 Dainava Alytus L 2-452.0 1264 1228 54.19% 17.05% 28.76%+0.52 -37.6 6
2012-04-18 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-252.0 1228 1264 28.76% 17.05% 54.19%-0.52 +37.6 9
2012-04-18 VMFD Zalgiris D 2-263.8 1263 1523 17.84% 16.68% 65.47%-1.11 +4.1 7
2012-04-18 @ FK Siauliai D 2-263.8 1523 1263 65.47% 16.68% 17.84%+1.11 -4.1 16
2012-04-21 Ekranas L 0-325.2 1003 1550 4.12% 14.63% 81.25%-2.68 -6.3 5
2012-04-21 @ Atlantas W 3-025.2 1550 1003 81.25% 14.63% 4.12%+2.68 +6.4 21
2012-04-21 Suduva W 2-154.7 1296 1487 24.45% 16.95% 58.61%-0.73 +26.2 16
2012-04-21 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-254.7 1487 1296 58.61% 16.95% 24.45%+0.73 -26.2 18
2012-04-21 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-239.9 1203 1519 13.58% 16.40% 70.02%-1.41 -7.1 5
2012-04-21 @ REO Vilnius W 2-139.9 1519 1203 70.02% 16.40% 13.58%+1.41 +7.1 19
2012-04-22 FK Siauliai W 1-039.9 1265 1267 49.35% 17.11% 33.54%+0.31 +17.0 12
2012-04-22 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-139.9 1267 1265 33.54% 17.11% 49.35%-0.31 -17.0 7
2012-04-22 Tauras Taurage W 1-040.9 1192 1226 44.95% 17.14% 37.90%+0.14 +18.9 5
2012-04-22 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-140.9 1226 1192 37.90% 17.14% 44.95%-0.14 -18.9 6
2012-04-27 Banga Gargzdai L 1-250.5 1250 1211 54.57% 17.04% 28.40%+0.54 -24.5 7
2012-04-27 @ FK Siauliai W 2-150.5 1211 1250 28.40% 17.04% 54.57%-0.54 +24.4 8
2012-04-28 Atlantas D 0-051.8 1207 997 70.87% 16.33% 12.81%+1.48 -7.6 7
2012-04-28 @ Tauras Taurage D 0-051.8 997 1207 12.81% 16.33% 70.87%-1.48 +7.6 6
2012-04-29 Dainava Alytus W 4-029.7 1526 1282 73.05% 16.12% 10.83%+1.66 +21.7 22
2012-04-29 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-429.7 1282 1526 10.83% 16.12% 73.05%-1.66 -21.7 12
2012-04-29 Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-038.1 1556 1322 72.49% 16.18% 11.34%+1.61 +6.3 24
2012-04-29 @ Ekranas L 0-138.1 1322 1556 11.34% 16.18% 72.49%-1.61 -6.3 16
2012-04-29 REO Vilnius D 0-053.2 1461 1196 74.32% 15.97% 9.71%+1.78 -8.6 19
2012-04-29 @ Suduva D 0-053.2 1196 1461 9.71% 15.97% 74.32%-1.78 +8.6 6
2012-05-01 Atlantas W 5-130.3 1226 1005 71.61% 16.26% 12.13%+1.54 +20.2 10
2012-05-01 @ FK Siauliai L 1-530.3 1005 1226 12.13% 16.26% 71.61%-1.54 -20.2 6
2012-05-02 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-433.4 1200 1316 33.54% 17.11% 49.35%-0.31 -61.0 7
2012-05-02 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-033.4 1316 1200 49.35% 17.11% 33.54%+0.31 +61.0 19
2012-05-02 Suduva W 2-043.1 1563 1452 62.47% 16.82% 20.71%+0.93 +21.0 27
2012-05-02 @ Ekranas L 0-243.1 1452 1563 20.71% 16.82% 62.47%-0.93 -21.0 19
2012-05-03 Banga Gargzdai W 2-031.5 1548 1236 76.76% 15.63% 7.61%+2.04 +8.1 25
2012-05-03 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-231.5 1236 1548 7.61% 15.63% 76.76%-2.04 -8.1 8
2012-05-05 FK Siauliai L 0-443.2 1376 1246 64.40% 16.74% 18.86%+1.04 -109.0 19
2012-05-05 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 4-043.2 1246 1376 18.86% 16.74% 64.40%-1.04 +109.0 13
2012-05-05 Tauras Taurage W 1-032.1 1431 1139 75.79% 15.78% 8.43%+1.93 +4.8 22
2012-05-05 @ Suduva L 0-132.1 1139 1431 8.43% 15.78% 75.79%-1.93 -4.8 7
2012-05-06 Dainava Alytus W 2-145.6 1227 1261 45.05% 17.14% 37.81%+0.14 +17.8 11
2012-05-06 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-245.6 1261 1227 37.81% 17.14% 45.05%-0.14 -17.8 12
2012-05-06 REO Vilnius W 6-130.1 1584 1204 79.57% 15.08% 5.36%+2.41 +11.0 30
2012-05-06 @ Ekranas L 1-630.1 1204 1584 5.36% 15.08% 79.57%-2.41 -11.0 6
2012-05-07 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-130.1 985 1556 3.61% 14.39% 81.99%-2.82 -2.0 6
2012-05-07 @ Atlantas W 1-030.1 1556 985 81.99% 14.39% 3.61%+2.82 +2.0 28
2012-05-11 Banga Gargzdai W 1-041.7 1193 1245 42.42% 17.15% 40.43%+0.04 +19.9 9
2012-05-11 @ REO Vilnius L 0-141.7 1245 1193 40.43% 17.15% 42.42%-0.04 -20.0 11
2012-05-12 Atlantas W 1-031.9 1243 983 74.06% 16.00% 9.94%+1.76 +5.6 15
2012-05-12 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-131.9 983 1243 9.94% 16.00% 74.06%-1.76 -5.6 6
2012-05-12 Ekranas L 1-237.6 1134 1595 6.48% 15.38% 78.14%-2.21 -3.5 7
2012-05-12 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-137.6 1595 1134 78.14% 15.38% 6.48%+2.21 +3.5 33
2012-05-13 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-252.9 1558 1268 75.69% 15.79% 8.52%+1.92 -67.7 28
2012-05-13 @ VMFD Zalgiris W 2-052.9 1268 1558 8.52% 15.79% 75.69%-1.92 +67.7 22
2012-05-13 Suduva D 3-367.7 1355 1436 38.26% 17.15% 44.59%-0.12 +0.4 14
2012-05-13 @ FK Siauliai D 3-367.7 1436 1355 44.59% 17.15% 38.26%+0.12 -0.4 23
2012-05-15 REO Vilnius W 2-040.0 1131 1213 38.02% 17.14% 44.84%-0.13 +41.0 10
2012-05-15 @ Tauras Taurage L 0-240.0 1213 1131 44.84% 17.14% 38.02%+0.13 -41.0 9
2012-05-16 FK Siauliai D 2-268.9 1598 1355 73.01% 16.12% 10.87%+1.66 -5.5 34
2012-05-16 @ Ekranas D 2-268.9 1355 1598 10.87% 16.12% 73.01%-1.66 +5.5 15
2012-05-16 VMFD Zalgiris D 0-058.8 1436 1490 42.02% 17.15% 40.83%+0.02 -0.1 24
2012-05-16 @ Suduva D 0-058.8 1490 1436 40.83% 17.15% 42.02%-0.02 +0.1 29
2012-05-17 Dainava Alytus W 2-034.1 1335 1249 60.01% 16.90% 23.09%+0.80 +23.2 25
2012-05-17 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-234.1 1249 1335 23.09% 16.90% 60.01%-0.80 -23.2 15
2012-05-18 Banga Gargzdai D 1-155.5 977 1225 18.84% 16.73% 64.43%-1.04 +5.2 7
2012-05-18 @ Atlantas D 1-155.5 1225 977 64.43% 16.73% 18.84%+1.04 -5.2 12
2012-05-21 Dainava Alytus W 1-041.6 1172 1225 42.25% 17.15% 40.60%+0.03 +20.0 12
2012-05-21 @ REO Vilnius L 0-141.6 1225 1172 40.60% 17.15% 42.25%-0.03 -20.0 15
2012-05-25 Ekranas D 0-064.5 1490 1593 35.33% 17.13% 47.54%-0.24 +1.5 30
2012-05-25 @ VMFD Zalgiris D 0-064.5 1593 1490 47.54% 17.13% 35.33%+0.24 -1.5 35
2012-05-25 Suduva L 2-442.7 1205 1435 20.52% 16.81% 62.67%-0.94 -16.2 15
2012-05-25 @ Dainava Alytus W 4-242.7 1435 1205 62.67% 16.81% 20.52%+0.94 +16.2 27
2012-05-26 Atlantas W 3-027.7 1192 982 70.86% 16.33% 12.81%+1.48 +19.5 15
2012-05-26 @ REO Vilnius L 0-327.7 982 1192 12.81% 16.33% 70.86%-1.48 -19.5 7
2012-05-26 Tauras Taurage W 7-334.6 1361 1172 69.35% 16.45% 14.21%+1.36 +18.2 18
2012-05-26 @ FK Siauliai L 3-734.6 1172 1361 14.21% 16.45% 69.35%-1.36 -18.2 10
2012-05-27 Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-156.2 1220 1358 30.65% 17.08% 52.27%-0.44 +2.4 13
2012-05-27 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-156.2 1358 1220 52.27% 17.08% 30.65%+0.44 -2.4 26
2012-06-09 Tauras Taurage W 3-140.1 1189 1153 54.17% 17.05% 28.78%+0.52 +24.4 18
2012-06-09 @ Dainava Alytus L 1-340.1 1153 1189 28.78% 17.05% 54.17%-0.52 -24.4 10
2012-06-10 Kruoja Pakruojis D 2-261.1 1212 1356 29.92% 17.07% 53.01%-0.47 +1.9 16
2012-06-10 @ REO Vilnius D 2-261.1 1356 1212 53.01% 17.07% 29.92%+0.47 -1.9 27
2012-06-12 Ekranas D 1-159.6 1222 1591 10.42% 16.07% 73.52%-1.71 +7.5 14
2012-06-12 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-159.6 1591 1222 73.52% 16.07% 10.42%+1.71 -7.5 36
2012-06-12 FK Siauliai W 2-037.9 1492 1379 62.71% 16.81% 20.48%+0.94 +20.8 33
2012-06-12 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-237.9 1379 1492 20.48% 16.81% 62.71%-0.94 -20.8 18
2012-06-13 Suduva L 0-424.2 963 1452 5.59% 15.14% 79.27%-2.37 -11.3 7
2012-06-13 @ Atlantas W 4-024.2 1452 963 79.27% 15.14% 5.59%+2.37 +11.3 30
2012-06-15 Dainava Alytus W 4-241.3 1358 1214 65.68% 16.67% 17.65%+1.12 +14.1 21
2012-06-15 @ FK Siauliai L 2-441.3 1214 1358 17.65% 16.67% 65.68%-1.12 -14.1 18
2012-06-16 Banga Gargzdai W 3-252.9 1129 1230 35.52% 17.13% 47.35%-0.23 +20.4 13
2012-06-16 @ Tauras Taurage L 2-352.9 1230 1129 47.35% 17.13% 35.52%+0.23 -20.4 14
2012-06-16 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-151.9 1463 1354 62.30% 16.82% 20.87%+0.92 -29.5 30
2012-06-16 @ Suduva W 1-051.9 1354 1463 20.87% 16.82% 62.30%-0.92 +29.5 30
2012-06-17 Atlantas W 2-026.0 1584 951 86.06% 12.56% 1.38%+3.80 +1.4 39
2012-06-17 @ Ekranas L 0-226.0 951 1584 1.38% 12.56% 86.06%-3.80 -1.4 7
2012-06-17 REO Vilnius L 0-153.9 1513 1214 76.12% 15.73% 8.16%+1.97 -36.1 33
2012-06-17 @ VMFD Zalgiris W 1-053.9 1214 1513 8.16% 15.73% 76.12%-1.97 +36.1 19
2012-06-19 Banga Gargzdai W 3-135.9 1433 1210 71.80% 16.24% 11.96%+1.55 +10.9 33
2012-06-19 @ Suduva L 1-335.9 1210 1433 11.96% 16.24% 71.80%-1.55 -10.9 14
2012-06-20 Dainava Alytus W 3-242.8 1585 1200 79.80% 15.02% 5.18%+2.44 +2.6 42
2012-06-20 @ Ekranas L 2-342.8 1200 1585 5.18% 15.02% 79.80%-2.44 -2.6 18
2012-06-20 REO Vilnius W 2-033.3 1372 1250 63.64% 16.77% 19.59%+1.00 +20.0 24
2012-06-20 @ FK Siauliai L 0-233.3 1250 1372 19.59% 16.77% 63.64%-1.00 -20.0 19
2012-06-20 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-231.1 1149 1477 12.85% 16.33% 70.82%-1.48 -13.5 13
2012-06-20 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-031.1 1477 1149 70.82% 16.33% 12.85%+1.48 +13.5 36
2012-06-21 Atlantas W 5-127.4 1384 950 81.40% 14.58% 4.02%+2.71 +6.7 33
2012-06-21 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-527.4 950 1384 4.02% 14.58% 81.40%-2.71 -6.7 7
2012-06-24 Suduva L 0-234.5 1230 1444 22.04% 16.87% 61.09%-0.86 -22.2 19
2012-06-24 @ REO Vilnius W 2-034.5 1444 1230 61.09% 16.87% 22.04%+0.86 +22.2 36
2012-06-25 Ekranas D 1-164.6 1390 1588 23.79% 16.93% 59.28%-0.76 +4.0 34
2012-06-25 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-164.6 1588 1390 59.28% 16.93% 23.79%+0.76 -4.0 43
2012-06-25 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-337.5 1197 1490 15.20% 16.52% 68.28%-1.29 -13.7 18
2012-06-25 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-137.5 1490 1197 68.28% 16.52% 15.20%+1.29 +13.7 39
2012-06-26 FK Siauliai L 0-137.3 1199 1392 24.20% 16.94% 58.86%-0.74 -12.8 14
2012-06-26 @ Banga Gargzdai W 1-037.3 1392 1199 58.86% 16.94% 24.20%+0.74 +12.8 27
2012-06-26 Tauras Taurage L 0-529.9 943 1136 24.30% 16.94% 58.75%-0.74 -56.8 7
2012-06-26 @ Atlantas W 5-029.9 1136 943 58.75% 16.94% 24.30%+0.74 +56.8 16
2012-06-29 FK Siauliai L 1-234.7 886 1405 4.78% 14.88% 80.34%-2.53 -2.5 7
2012-06-29 @ Atlantas W 2-134.7 1405 886 80.34% 14.88% 4.78%+2.53 +2.5 30
2012-06-29 VMFD Zalgiris D 0-053.5 1186 1504 13.45% 16.38% 70.16%-1.43 +7.4 15
2012-06-29 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-053.5 1504 1186 70.16% 16.38% 13.45%+1.43 -7.4 40
2012-06-30 REO Vilnius W 2-037.6 1183 1208 46.29% 17.14% 36.58%+0.19 +34.6 21
2012-06-30 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-237.6 1208 1183 36.58% 17.14% 46.29%-0.19 -34.6 19
2012-06-30 Tauras Taurage W 3-136.0 1394 1193 70.26% 16.38% 13.36%+1.43 +12.1 37
2012-06-30 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-336.0 1193 1394 13.36% 16.38% 70.26%-1.43 -12.1 16
2012-07-01 Ekranas L 2-360.4 1467 1584 33.35% 17.11% 49.54%-0.32 -15.2 36
2012-07-01 @ Suduva W 3-260.4 1584 1467 49.54% 17.11% 33.35%+0.32 +15.2 46
2012-07-20 Banga Gargzdai L 0-438.9 1218 1193 52.77% 17.07% 30.16%+0.46 -90.0 21
2012-07-20 @ Dainava Alytus W 4-038.9 1193 1218 30.16% 17.07% 52.77%-0.46 +89.9 18
2012-07-22 Atlantas W 3-130.7 1496 884 85.69% 12.77% 1.54%+3.69 +1.4 43
2012-07-22 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 1-330.7 884 1496 1.54% 12.77% 85.69%-3.69 -1.4 7
2012-07-22 Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-043.1 1408 1406 49.74% 17.11% 33.15%+0.33 +16.9 33
2012-07-22 @ FK Siauliai L 0-143.1 1406 1408 33.15% 17.11% 49.74%-0.33 -16.9 37
2012-07-22 Suduva L 1-240.0 1181 1451 16.93% 16.63% 66.44%-1.17 -8.7 16
2012-07-22 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-140.0 1451 1181 66.44% 16.63% 16.93%+1.17 +8.7 39
2012-07-27 REO Vilnius W 2-140.3 1283 1173 62.44% 16.82% 20.74%+0.93 +10.5 21
2012-07-27 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-240.3 1173 1283 20.74% 16.82% 62.44%-0.93 -10.5 19
2012-07-28 Dainava Alytus W 2-153.0 883 1128 19.11% 16.75% 64.14%-1.03 +28.6 10
2012-07-28 @ Atlantas L 1-253.0 1128 883 64.14% 16.75% 19.11%+1.03 -28.6 21
2012-07-28 Tauras Taurage W 5-026.2 1599 1172 81.20% 14.64% 4.16%+2.67 +10.3 49
2012-07-28 @ Ekranas L 0-526.2 1172 1599 4.16% 14.64% 81.20%-2.67 -10.3 16
2012-07-30 FK Siauliai W 1-043.8 1460 1424 54.15% 17.05% 28.81%+0.52 +14.9 42
2012-07-30 @ Suduva L 0-143.8 1424 1460 28.81% 17.05% 54.15%-0.52 -15.0 33
2012-07-30 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-145.6 1390 1498 34.56% 17.12% 48.32%-0.27 -17.5 37
2012-07-30 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-045.6 1498 1390 48.32% 17.12% 34.56%+0.27 +17.5 46
2012-08-03 Atlantas W 1-030.2 1294 911 79.69% 15.05% 5.27%+2.43 +3.0 24
2012-08-03 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-130.2 911 1294 5.27% 15.05% 79.69%-2.43 -3.0 10
2012-08-04 Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-239.1 1099 1372 16.77% 16.62% 66.61%-1.18 -8.7 21
2012-08-04 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-139.1 1372 1099 66.61% 16.62% 16.77%+1.18 +8.7 40
2012-08-04 Tauras Taurage L 2-353.6 1163 1161 49.72% 17.11% 33.17%+0.33 -21.3 19
2012-08-04 @ REO Vilnius W 3-253.6 1161 1163 33.17% 17.11% 49.72%-0.33 +21.3 19
2012-08-05 Ekranas L 3-459.4 1410 1609 23.55% 16.92% 59.53%-0.78 -10.9 33
2012-08-05 @ FK Siauliai W 4-359.4 1609 1410 59.53% 16.92% 23.55%+0.78 +10.9 52
2012-08-05 Suduva D 2-270.0 1515 1475 54.68% 17.04% 28.28%+0.54 -2.2 47
2012-08-05 @ VMFD Zalgiris D 2-270.0 1475 1515 28.28% 17.04% 54.68%-0.54 +2.2 43
2012-08-10 Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-044.4 1297 1381 37.84% 17.14% 45.01%-0.14 +21.8 27
2012-08-10 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-144.4 1381 1297 45.01% 17.14% 37.84%+0.14 -21.8 40
2012-08-11 FK Siauliai L 0-430.2 1183 1399 21.90% 16.86% 61.23%-0.86 -42.0 19
2012-08-11 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-030.2 1399 1183 61.23% 16.86% 21.90%+0.86 +42.0 36
2012-08-11 REO Vilnius W 4-254.1 908 1141 20.24% 16.80% 62.96%-0.96 +43.5 13
2012-08-11 @ Atlantas L 2-454.1 1141 908 62.96% 16.80% 20.24%+0.96 -43.5 19
2012-08-12 Dainava Alytus W 3-240.2 1477 1091 79.83% 15.01% 5.15%+2.45 +2.6 46
2012-08-12 @ Suduva L 2-340.2 1091 1477 5.15% 15.01% 79.83%-2.45 -2.6 21
2012-08-12 VMFD Zalgiris D 0-066.2 1620 1513 62.15% 16.83% 21.02%+0.91 -5.2 53
2012-08-12 @ Ekranas D 0-066.2 1513 1620 21.02% 16.83% 62.15%-0.91 +5.2 48
2012-08-17 Suduva D 0-055.1 1319 1480 27.84% 17.03% 55.13%-0.56 +3.4 28
2012-08-17 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-055.1 1480 1319 55.13% 17.03% 27.84%+0.56 -3.4 47
2012-08-18 FK Siauliai L 3-541.4 1098 1441 11.88% 16.24% 71.89%-1.56 -9.2 19
2012-08-18 @ REO Vilnius W 5-341.4 1441 1098 71.89% 16.24% 11.88%+1.56 +9.2 39
2012-08-18 Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-156.3 952 1359 8.55% 15.80% 75.65%-1.92 +33.8 16
2012-08-18 @ Atlantas L 1-256.3 1359 952 75.65% 15.80% 8.55%+1.92 -33.8 40
2012-08-19 Ekranas D 2-262.9 1088 1615 4.57% 14.81% 80.62%-2.58 +6.8 22
2012-08-19 @ Dainava Alytus D 2-262.9 1615 1088 80.62% 14.81% 4.57%+2.58 -6.8 54
2012-08-19 Tauras Taurage W 4-025.3 1518 1141 79.50% 15.09% 5.41%+2.40 +10.9 51
2012-08-19 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-425.3 1141 1518 5.41% 15.09% 79.50%-2.40 -10.9 19
2012-08-21 Atlantas W 2-026.7 1477 985 83.01% 14.03% 2.96%+3.02 +3.1 50
2012-08-21 @ Suduva L 0-226.7 985 1477 2.96% 14.03% 83.01%-3.02 -3.1 16
2012-08-22 VMFD Zalgiris L 2-456.1 1450 1529 38.50% 17.15% 44.36%-0.11 -28.0 39
2012-08-22 @ FK Siauliai W 4-256.1 1529 1450 44.36% 17.15% 38.50%+0.11 +28.0 54
2012-08-23 Dainava Alytus L 1-347.6 1130 1095 54.07% 17.05% 28.88%+0.52 -42.0 19
2012-08-23 @ Tauras Taurage W 3-147.6 1095 1130 28.88% 17.05% 54.07%-0.52 +42.0 25
2012-08-25 Suduva W 2-153.9 1325 1480 28.66% 17.04% 54.30%-0.53 +24.3 43
2012-08-25 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-253.9 1480 1325 54.30% 17.04% 28.66%+0.53 -24.3 50
2012-08-26 Ekranas L 1-234.6 982 1608 2.70% 13.86% 83.44%-3.12 -1.4 16
2012-08-26 @ Atlantas W 2-134.6 1608 982 83.44% 13.86% 2.70%+3.12 +1.4 57
2012-08-26 FK Siauliai L 0-231.7 1137 1422 15.82% 16.56% 67.62%-1.24 -16.4 25
2012-08-26 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-031.7 1422 1137 67.62% 16.56% 15.82%+1.24 +16.4 42
2012-08-26 Tauras Taurage W 4-026.2 1322 1088 72.45% 16.18% 11.37%+1.61 +22.8 31
2012-08-26 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-426.2 1088 1322 11.37% 16.18% 72.45%-1.61 -22.8 19
2012-09-01 Atlantas D 1-155.4 1065 981 59.75% 16.91% 23.34%+0.79 -4.1 20
2012-09-01 @ Tauras Taurage D 1-155.4 981 1065 23.34% 16.91% 59.75%-0.79 +4.1 17
2012-09-01 Banga Gargzdai L 0-150.7 1438 1345 60.75% 16.88% 22.37%+0.84 -28.7 42
2012-09-01 @ FK Siauliai W 1-050.7 1345 1438 22.37% 16.88% 60.75%-0.84 +28.7 34
2012-09-02 Dainava Alytus W 3-026.1 1557 1120 81.49% 14.56% 3.95%+2.73 +6.1 57
2012-09-02 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-326.1 1120 1557 3.95% 14.56% 81.49%-2.73 -6.1 25
2012-09-03 Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-037.5 1610 1349 74.04% 16.01% 9.95%+1.75 +10.6 60
2012-09-03 @ Ekranas L 0-237.5 1349 1610 9.95% 16.01% 74.04%-1.75 -10.6 43
2012-09-13 Atlantas W 6-023.8 1409 985 81.11% 14.67% 4.22%+2.66 +12.4 45
2012-09-13 @ FK Siauliai L 0-623.8 985 1409 4.22% 14.67% 81.11%-2.66 -12.4 17
2012-09-14 Banga Gargzdai W 2-038.1 1563 1373 69.39% 16.44% 14.17%+1.37 +14.8 60
2012-09-14 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-238.1 1373 1563 14.17% 16.44% 69.39%-1.37 -14.8 34
2012-09-15 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-427.8 1061 1339 16.37% 16.60% 67.03%-1.20 -32.2 20
2012-09-15 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-027.8 1339 1061 67.03% 16.60% 16.37%+1.20 +32.1 46
2012-09-16 Suduva D 2-273.2 1620 1455 67.42% 16.58% 16.01%+1.23 -4.4 61
2012-09-16 @ Ekranas D 2-273.2 1455 1620 16.01% 16.58% 67.42%-1.23 +4.4 51
2012-09-18 FK Siauliai W 1-044.8 1371 1422 42.57% 17.15% 40.28%+0.04 +19.9 49
2012-09-18 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-144.8 1422 1371 40.28% 17.15% 42.57%-0.04 -19.9 45
2012-09-18 VMFD Zalgiris L 3-442.3 973 1578 3.01% 14.06% 82.93%-3.01 -1.5 17
2012-09-18 @ Atlantas W 4-342.3 1578 973 82.93% 14.06% 3.01%+3.01 +1.5 63
2012-09-19 Tauras Taurage W 4-129.7 1460 1029 81.31% 14.61% 4.08%+2.69 +5.3 54
2012-09-19 @ Suduva L 1-429.7 1029 1460 4.08% 14.61% 81.31%-2.69 -5.3 20
2012-09-20 Dainava Alytus W 5-026.0 1359 1114 73.09% 16.11% 10.79%+1.67 +26.7 37
2012-09-20 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-526.0 1114 1359 10.79% 16.11% 73.09%-1.67 -26.7 25
2012-09-22 Ekranas L 0-227.7 1024 1616 3.23% 14.19% 82.57%-2.93 -3.4 20
2012-09-22 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-027.7 1616 1024 82.57% 14.19% 3.23%+2.93 +3.4 64
2012-09-22 Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-146.8 1579 1391 69.29% 16.45% 14.26%+1.36 +7.5 66
2012-09-22 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 1-246.8 1391 1579 14.26% 16.45% 69.29%-1.36 -7.5 49
2012-09-23 Suduva W 1-047.2 1402 1465 40.82% 17.15% 42.03%-0.02 +20.6 48
2012-09-23 @ FK Siauliai L 0-147.2 1465 1402 42.03% 17.15% 40.82%+0.02 -20.6 54
2012-09-24 Atlantas L 1-252.7 1088 971 63.07% 16.79% 20.14%+0.96 -28.1 25
2012-09-24 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-152.7 971 1088 20.14% 16.79% 63.07%-0.96 +28.1 20
2012-09-26 Banga Gargzdai W 2-039.7 1619 1385 72.44% 16.18% 11.38%+1.61 +12.0 67
2012-09-26 @ Ekranas L 0-239.7 1385 1619 11.38% 16.18% 72.44%-1.61 -12.0 37
2012-09-29 Dainava Alytus W 2-028.3 1383 1060 77.30% 15.54% 7.16%+2.10 +7.6 52
2012-09-29 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-228.3 1060 1383 7.16% 15.54% 77.30%-2.10 -7.6 25
2012-09-30 FK Siauliai W 3-039.7 1631 1423 70.75% 16.34% 12.92%+1.47 +19.7 70
2012-09-30 @ Ekranas L 0-339.7 1423 1631 12.92% 16.34% 70.75%-1.47 -19.7 48
2012-09-30 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-254.0 1444 1587 30.13% 17.07% 52.80%-0.46 -14.7 54
2012-09-30 @ Suduva W 2-154.0 1587 1444 52.80% 17.07% 30.13%+0.46 +14.6 69
2012-10-01 Banga Gargzdai D 2-260.8 999 1373 10.15% 16.03% 73.82%-1.73 +5.6 21
2012-10-01 @ Atlantas D 2-260.8 1373 999 73.82% 16.03% 10.15%+1.73 -5.6 38
2012-10-06 Banga Gargzdai W 2-145.7 1391 1368 52.63% 17.07% 30.30%+0.45 +14.7 55
2012-10-06 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-245.7 1368 1391 30.30% 17.07% 52.63%-0.45 -14.7 38
2012-10-06 Suduva L 0-327.1 1052 1430 9.95% 16.01% 74.04%-1.75 -15.3 25
2012-10-06 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-027.1 1430 1052 74.04% 16.01% 9.95%+1.75 +15.3 57
2012-10-07 Ekranas W 2-163.3 1602 1651 42.79% 17.15% 40.06%+0.05 +18.7 72
2012-10-07 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 1-263.3 1651 1602 40.06% 17.15% 42.79%-0.05 -18.6 70
2012-10-08 Tauras Taurage W 7-228.4 1403 1020 79.69% 15.05% 5.26%+2.43 +9.1 51
2012-10-08 @ FK Siauliai L 2-728.4 1020 1403 5.26% 15.05% 79.69%-2.43 -9.1 20
2012-10-20 Atlantas W 5-023.7 1406 1005 80.34% 14.88% 4.78%+2.53 +11.9 58
2012-10-20 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-523.7 1005 1406 4.78% 14.88% 80.34%-2.53 -11.9 21
2012-10-20 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-424.0 1011 1620 2.95% 14.03% 83.02%-3.03 -5.9 20
2012-10-20 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-024.0 1620 1011 83.02% 14.03% 2.95%+3.03 +5.9 75
2012-10-21 Banga Gargzdai W 3-034.4 1445 1353 60.60% 16.89% 22.51%+0.83 +32.9 60
2012-10-21 @ Suduva L 0-334.4 1353 1445 22.51% 16.89% 60.60%-0.83 -32.9 38
2012-10-21 Dainava Alytus W 3-024.9 1632 1037 85.36% 12.95% 1.69%+3.60 +2.5 73
2012-10-21 @ Ekranas L 0-324.9 1037 1632 1.69% 12.95% 85.36%-3.60 -2.5 25
2012-10-27 Ekranas L 0-238.6 1320 1635 13.67% 16.40% 69.93%-1.41 -14.3 38
2012-10-27 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-038.6 1635 1320 69.93% 16.40% 13.67%+1.41 +14.3 76
2012-10-27 Suduva L 1-528.4 993 1478 5.71% 15.18% 79.12%-2.34 -9.6 21
2012-10-27 @ Atlantas W 5-128.4 1478 993 79.12% 15.18% 5.71%+2.34 +9.6 63
2012-10-28 FK Siauliai W 4-143.7 1626 1412 71.14% 16.30% 12.56%+1.50 +16.2 78
2012-10-28 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 1-443.7 1412 1626 12.56% 16.30% 71.14%-1.50 -16.2 51
2012-10-28 Tauras Taurage W 2-035.3 1034 1005 53.30% 17.06% 29.64%+0.48 +28.9 28
2012-10-28 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-235.3 1005 1034 29.64% 17.06% 53.30%-0.48 -28.9 20
2012-11-02 Atlantas W 6-229.1 1649 983 86.64% 12.20% 1.16%+3.98 +1.6 79
2012-11-02 @ Ekranas L 2-629.1 983 1649 1.16% 12.20% 86.64%-3.98 -1.6 21
2012-11-03 Banga Gargzdai L 1-335.0 976 1306 12.71% 16.32% 70.97%-1.49 -11.6 20
2012-11-03 @ Tauras Taurage W 3-135.0 1306 976 70.97% 16.32% 12.71%+1.49 +11.6 41
2012-11-03 Dainava Alytus D 3-365.1 1396 1063 77.70% 15.46% 6.84%+2.15 -5.3 52
2012-11-03 @ FK Siauliai D 3-365.1 1063 1396 6.84% 15.46% 77.70%-2.15 +5.3 29
2012-11-04 Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-162.0 1488 1418 58.18% 16.96% 24.87%+0.71 -3.7 64
2012-11-04 @ Suduva D 1-162.0 1418 1488 24.87% 16.96% 58.18%-0.71 +3.7 59
2012-11-11 Ekranas L 0-245.1 1421 1651 20.61% 16.81% 62.58%-0.94 -20.9 59
2012-11-11 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-045.1 1651 1421 62.58% 16.81% 20.61%+0.94 +20.9 82
2012-11-11 FK Siauliai W 2-148.9 1317 1391 39.36% 17.15% 43.49%-0.08 +20.0 44
2012-11-11 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-248.9 1391 1317 43.49% 17.15% 39.36%+0.08 -20.0 52
2012-11-11 Tauras Taurage W 4-138.1 982 965 51.81% 17.08% 31.10%+0.42 +36.9 24
2012-11-11 @ Atlantas L 1-438.1 965 982 31.10% 17.08% 51.81%-0.42 -36.9 20
2012-11-11 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-236.1 1068 1642 3.56% 14.37% 82.07%-2.83 -1.9 29
2012-11-11 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-136.1 1642 1068 82.07% 14.37% 3.56%+2.83 +1.9 81

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-06-17 8.16% REO Vilnius 1214 1 @ VMFD Zalgiris 1513 0
2 2012-05-13 8.52% Kruoja Pakruojis 1268 2 @ VMFD Zalgiris 1558 0
3 2012-08-18 8.55% @ Atlantas 952 2 Kruoja Pakruojis 1359 1
4 2012-04-01 9.06% Atlantas 985 1 @ Banga Gargzdai 1263 0
5 2012-05-05 18.86% FK Siauliai 1246 4 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1376 0
6 2012-07-28 19.11% @ Atlantas 883 2 Dainava Alytus 1128 1
7 2012-09-24 20.14% Atlantas 971 2 @ Dainava Alytus 1088 1
8 2012-08-11 20.24% @ Atlantas 908 4 REO Vilnius 1141 2
9 2012-06-16 20.87% Kruoja Pakruojis 1354 1 @ Suduva 1463 0
10 2012-09-01 22.37% Banga Gargzdai 1345 1 @ FK Siauliai 1438 0
11 2012-04-21 24.45% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1296 2 Suduva 1487 1
12 2012-04-27 28.40% Banga Gargzdai 1211 2 @ FK Siauliai 1250 1
13 2012-08-25 28.66% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1325 2 Suduva 1480 1
14 2012-04-18 28.76% Dainava Alytus 1228 4 @ Tauras Taurage 1264 2
15 2012-08-23 28.88% Dainava Alytus 1095 3 @ Tauras Taurage 1130 1
16 2012-07-20 30.16% Banga Gargzdai 1193 4 @ Dainava Alytus 1218 0
17 2012-04-14 32.07% @ REO Vilnius 1176 3 FK Siauliai 1303 1
18 2012-08-04 33.17% Tauras Taurage 1161 3 @ REO Vilnius 1163 2
19 2012-06-16 35.52% @ Tauras Taurage 1129 3 Banga Gargzdai 1230 2
20 2012-03-31 37.62% Tauras Taurage 1233 1 @ REO Vilnius 1201 0
21 2012-08-10 37.84% @ Banga Gargzdai 1297 1 Kruoja Pakruojis 1381 0
22 2012-05-15 38.02% @ Tauras Taurage 1131 2 REO Vilnius 1213 0
23 2012-04-01 38.22% @ VMFD Zalgiris 1451 4 Suduva 1533 0
24 2012-11-11 39.36% @ Banga Gargzdai 1317 2 FK Siauliai 1391 1
25 2012-04-09 39.97% @ Tauras Taurage 1255 1 FK Siauliai 1324 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-05-05 108.96 FK Siauliai 4 1246 18.86% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 0 1376 64.40% 16.74%
2 2012-07-20 89.95 Banga Gargzdai 4 1193 30.16% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1218 52.77% 17.07%
3 2012-04-01 77.52 @ VMFD Zalgiris 4 1451 38.22% Suduva 0 1533 44.63% 17.15%
4 2012-05-13 67.68 Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1268 8.52% @ VMFD Zalgiris 0 1558 75.69% 15.79%
5 2012-05-02 60.96 Kruoja Pakruojis 4 1316 49.35% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1200 33.54% 17.11%
6 2012-06-26 56.77 Tauras Taurage 5 1136 58.75% @ Atlantas 0 943 24.30% 16.94%
7 2012-08-11 43.49 @ Atlantas 4 908 20.24% REO Vilnius 2 1141 62.96% 16.80%
8 2012-08-23 41.99 Dainava Alytus 3 1095 28.88% @ Tauras Taurage 1 1130 54.07% 17.05%
9 2012-08-11 41.97 FK Siauliai 4 1399 61.23% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1183 21.90% 16.86%
10 2012-05-15 41.02 @ Tauras Taurage 2 1131 38.02% REO Vilnius 0 1213 44.84% 17.14%
11 2012-04-14 39.68 @ REO Vilnius 3 1176 32.07% FK Siauliai 1 1303 50.83% 17.10%
12 2012-04-18 37.64 Dainava Alytus 4 1228 28.76% @ Tauras Taurage 2 1264 54.19% 17.05%
13 2012-11-11 36.89 @ Atlantas 4 982 51.81% Tauras Taurage 1 965 31.10% 17.08%
14 2012-06-17 36.10 REO Vilnius 1 1214 8.16% @ VMFD Zalgiris 0 1513 76.12% 15.73%
15 2012-04-01 35.60 Atlantas 1 985 9.06% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1263 75.07% 15.88%
16 2012-06-30 34.58 @ Dainava Alytus 2 1183 46.29% REO Vilnius 0 1208 36.58% 17.14%
17 2012-08-18 33.82 @ Atlantas 2 952 8.55% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1359 75.65% 15.80%
18 2012-03-25 32.99 @ Ekranas 5 1466 70.15% Tauras Taurage 0 1266 13.46% 16.39%
19 2012-10-21 32.93 @ Suduva 3 1445 60.60% Banga Gargzdai 0 1353 22.51% 16.89%
20 2012-09-15 32.15 Kruoja Pakruojis 4 1339 67.03% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1061 16.37% 16.60%
21 2012-03-11 31.23 @ Suduva 3 1449 44.41% Ekranas 1 1487 38.45% 17.15%
22 2012-03-17 30.80 Suduva 4 1480 57.74% @ Tauras Taurage 1 1297 25.29% 16.97%
23 2012-06-16 29.47 Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1354 20.87% @ Suduva 0 1463 62.30% 16.82%
24 2012-10-28 28.89 @ Dainava Alytus 2 1034 53.30% Tauras Taurage 0 1005 29.64% 17.06%
25 2012-09-01 28.74 Banga Gargzdai 1 1345 22.37% @ FK Siauliai 0 1438 60.75% 16.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-09-16 73.2 @ Ekranas 2 1620 67.42% Suduva 2 1455 16.01% 16.58%
2 2012-08-05 70.0 @ VMFD Zalgiris 2 1515 54.68% Suduva 2 1475 28.28% 17.04%
3 2012-05-16 68.9 @ Ekranas 2 1598 73.01% FK Siauliai 2 1355 10.87% 16.12%
4 2012-05-13 67.7 @ FK Siauliai 3 1355 38.26% Suduva 3 1436 44.59% 17.15%
5 2012-08-12 66.2 @ Ekranas 0 1620 62.15% VMFD Zalgiris 0 1513 21.02% 16.83%
6 2012-11-03 65.1 @ FK Siauliai 3 1396 77.70% Dainava Alytus 3 1063 6.84% 15.46%
7 2012-06-25 64.6 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1390 23.79% Ekranas 1 1588 59.28% 16.93%
8 2012-05-25 64.5 @ VMFD Zalgiris 0 1490 35.33% Ekranas 0 1593 47.54% 17.13%
9 2012-04-18 63.8 @ FK Siauliai 2 1263 17.84% VMFD Zalgiris 2 1523 65.47% 16.68%
10 2012-10-07 63.3 @ VMFD Zalgiris 2 1602 42.79% Ekranas 1 1651 40.06% 17.15%
11 2012-08-19 62.9 @ Dainava Alytus 2 1088 4.57% Ekranas 2 1615 80.62% 14.81%
12 2012-11-04 62.0 @ Suduva 1 1488 58.18% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1418 24.87% 16.96%
13 2012-06-10 61.1 @ REO Vilnius 2 1212 29.92% Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1356 53.01% 17.07%
14 2012-10-01 60.8 @ Atlantas 2 999 10.15% Banga Gargzdai 2 1373 73.82% 16.03%
15 2012-03-25 60.7 @ Banga Gargzdai 2 1266 57.95% REO Vilnius 2 1198 25.08% 16.96%
16 2012-07-01 60.4 Ekranas 3 1584 49.54% @ Suduva 2 1467 33.35% 17.11%
17 2012-06-12 59.6 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1222 10.42% Ekranas 1 1591 73.52% 16.07%
18 2012-08-05 59.4 Ekranas 4 1609 59.53% @ FK Siauliai 3 1410 23.55% 16.92%
19 2012-05-16 58.8 @ Suduva 0 1436 42.02% VMFD Zalgiris 0 1490 40.83% 17.15%
20 2012-08-18 56.3 @ Atlantas 2 952 8.55% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1359 75.65% 15.80%
21 2012-05-27 56.2 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1220 30.65% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1358 52.27% 17.08%
22 2012-08-22 56.1 VMFD Zalgiris 4 1529 44.36% @ FK Siauliai 2 1450 38.50% 17.15%
23 2012-05-18 55.5 @ Atlantas 1 977 18.84% Banga Gargzdai 1 1225 64.43% 16.73%
24 2012-09-01 55.4 @ Tauras Taurage 1 1065 59.75% Atlantas 1 981 23.34% 16.91%
25 2012-08-17 55.1 @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1319 27.84% Suduva 0 1480 55.13% 17.03%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-04-17 23.7 @ Suduva 6 1477 82.27% Atlantas 0 1013 3.43% 14.30%
2 2012-10-20 23.7 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 5 1406 80.34% Atlantas 0 1005 4.78% 14.88%
3 2012-09-13 23.8 @ FK Siauliai 6 1409 81.11% Atlantas 0 985 4.22% 14.67%
4 2012-10-20 24.0 VMFD Zalgiris 4 1620 83.02% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1011 2.95% 14.03%
5 2012-06-13 24.2 Suduva 4 1452 79.27% @ Atlantas 0 963 5.59% 15.14%
6 2012-03-17 24.3 @ VMFD Zalgiris 7 1423 81.32% Atlantas 0 992 4.07% 14.61%
7 2012-10-21 24.9 @ Ekranas 3 1632 85.36% Dainava Alytus 0 1037 1.69% 12.95%
8 2012-04-21 25.2 Ekranas 3 1550 81.25% @ Atlantas 0 1003 4.12% 14.63%
9 2012-08-19 25.3 @ VMFD Zalgiris 4 1518 79.50% Tauras Taurage 0 1141 5.41% 15.09%
10 2012-06-17 26.0 @ Ekranas 2 1584 86.06% Atlantas 0 951 1.38% 12.56%
11 2012-09-20 26.0 @ Banga Gargzdai 5 1359 73.09% Dainava Alytus 0 1114 10.79% 16.11%
12 2012-09-02 26.1 @ VMFD Zalgiris 3 1557 81.49% Dainava Alytus 0 1120 3.95% 14.56%
13 2012-07-28 26.2 @ Ekranas 5 1599 81.20% Tauras Taurage 0 1172 4.16% 14.64%
14 2012-08-26 26.2 @ Banga Gargzdai 4 1322 72.45% Tauras Taurage 0 1088 11.37% 16.18%
15 2012-08-21 26.7 @ Suduva 2 1477 83.01% Atlantas 0 985 2.96% 14.03%
16 2012-10-06 27.1 Suduva 3 1430 74.04% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1052 9.95% 16.01%
17 2012-06-21 27.4 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 5 1384 81.40% Atlantas 1 950 4.02% 14.58%
18 2012-05-26 27.7 @ REO Vilnius 3 1192 70.86% Atlantas 0 982 12.81% 16.33%
19 2012-09-22 27.7 Ekranas 2 1616 82.57% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1024 3.23% 14.19%
20 2012-09-15 27.8 Kruoja Pakruojis 4 1339 67.03% @ Tauras Taurage 0 1061 16.37% 16.60%
21 2012-03-10 28.1 FK Siauliai 3 1326 69.83% @ Atlantas 0 1013 13.76% 16.41%
22 2012-04-18 28.1 @ Ekranas 3 1540 77.88% Banga Gargzdai 0 1203 6.69% 15.43%
23 2012-09-29 28.3 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1383 77.30% Dainava Alytus 0 1060 7.16% 15.54%
24 2012-10-08 28.4 @ FK Siauliai 7 1403 79.69% Tauras Taurage 2 1020 5.26% 15.05%
25 2012-10-27 28.4 Suduva 5 1478 79.12% @ Atlantas 1 993 5.71% 15.18%