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2013 A Lyga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

VMFD Zalgiris

73 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Atlantas

16.75 points above expected

71 points · 54.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dainava Alytus

9.96 points below expected

17 points · 26.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 VMFD Zalgiris 32 22 7 3 73 77 19 +58 74.67 -1.67
2 Atlantas 32 22 5 5 71 64 23 +41 54.25 +16.75
3 Ekranas 32 20 4 8 64 58 34 +24 62.14 +1.86
4 Suduva 32 18 8 6 62 73 33 +40 58.14 +3.86
5 Kruoja Pakruojis 32 13 9 10 48 46 47 -1 47.40 +0.60
6 Banga Gargzdai 32 10 5 17 35 39 56 -17 34.71 +0.29
7 FK Siauliai 32 6 7 19 25 34 65 -31 34.01 -9.01
8 Dainava Alytus 32 4 5 23 17 27 74 -47 26.96 -9.96
9 Tauras Taurage 32 3 2 27 11 25 92 -67 14.19 -3.19

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atlantas 71 54.25 +16.75
2 Suduva 62 58.14 +3.86
3 Ekranas 64 62.14 +1.86
4 Kruoja Pakruojis 48 47.40 +0.60
5 Banga Gargzdai 35 34.71 +0.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dainava Alytus 17 26.96 -9.96
2 FK Siauliai 25 34.01 -9.01
3 Tauras Taurage 11 14.19 -3.19
4 VMFD Zalgiris 73 74.67 -1.67
5 Banga Gargzdai 35 34.71 +0.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atlantas 6 Sep 17 – Nov 3 1 in 50
2 Tauras Taurage 2 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 36
3 VMFD Zalgiris 11 May 22 – Aug 25 1 in 18
4 Suduva 5 Jun 28 – Aug 20 1 in 16
5 Banga Gargzdai 3 May 4 – May 11 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tauras Taurage 14 May 8 – Sep 1 1 in 83
2 FK Siauliai 7 Jun 3 – Aug 3 1 in 59
3 Banga Gargzdai 6 Mar 16 – Apr 27 1 in 38
4 Ekranas 2 Apr 10 – Apr 13 1 in 18
5 Dainava Alytus 5 Jul 6 – Aug 21 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Suduva 15 Jun 28 – Nov 9 1 in 44
2 Atlantas 10 Aug 24 – Nov 9 1 in 25
3 VMFD Zalgiris 21 Mar 16 – Sep 2 1 in 22
4 Kruoja Pakruojis 6 Jun 15 – Aug 10 1 in 15
5 Tauras Taurage 2 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VMFD Zalgiris 5 Oct 19 – Nov 9 1 in 453
2 Kruoja Pakruojis 9 Apr 14 – Jun 2 1 in 247
3 Ekranas 3 Apr 6 – Apr 13 1 in 12
4 Dainava Alytus 11 Mar 30 – May 30 1 in 9
5 FK Siauliai 10 Aug 24 – Nov 9 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
VMFD Zalgiris 1587 73 -93 4 11.2 -7.2
Atlantas 1542 71 +36 13 11.6 +1.4
Ekranas 1406 64 +4 8 7.5 +0.5
Suduva 1635 62 +85 13 10.4 +2.6
Kruoja Pakruojis 1331 48 +2 5 4.6 +0.4
Banga Gargzdai 1202 35 -1 5 4.0 +1.0
FK Siauliai 919 25 -85 1 4.1 -3.1
Dainava Alytus 951 17 -102 1 5.3 -4.3
Tauras Taurage 900 11 +130 6 2.0 +4.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ATL BG DA EKR FS KP SUD TT VZ
Atlantas —
2-2-0
8.83
4-0-0
9.07
2-1-1
5.20
3-0-1
8.07
3-0-1
7.05
2-2-0
4.64
4-0-0
9.80
2-0-2
2.20
Banga Gargzdai
0-2-2
2.44
 —
3-0-1
7.83
0-0-4
2.71
3-1-0
5.65
0-1-3
4.05
0-0-4
2.25
4-0-0
8.96
0-1-3
1.21
Dainava Alytus
0-0-4
2.22
1-0-3
3.41
 —
0-0-4
1.64
1-1-2
4.43
0-3-1
2.69
0-0-4
2.20
2-1-1
7.88
0-0-4
1.19
Ekranas
1-1-2
6.04
4-0-0
8.55
4-0-0
9.66
 —
4-0-0
9.14
2-0-2
8.08
1-2-1
6.23
4-0-0
10.38
0-1-3
3.90
FK Siauliai
1-0-3
3.21
0-1-3
5.59
2-1-1
6.82
0-0-4
2.15
 —
0-2-2
2.91
0-2-2
3.02
3-0-1
8.79
0-1-3
1.77
Kruoja Pakruojis
1-0-3
4.20
3-1-0
7.19
1-3-0
8.56
2-0-2
3.17
2-2-0
8.35
 —
1-0-3
4.11
3-0-1
9.62
0-3-1
2.13
Suduva
0-2-2
6.60
4-0-0
9.02
4-0-0
9.08
1-2-1
5.01
2-2-0
8.25
3-0-1
7.13
 —
3-1-0
10.06
1-1-2
3.37
Tauras Taurage
0-0-4
1.55
0-0-4
2.31
1-1-2
3.37
0-0-4
0.99
1-0-3
2.47
1-0-3
1.67
0-1-3
1.32
 —
0-0-4
0.83
VMFD Zalgiris
2-0-2
9.07
3-1-0
10.13
4-0-0
10.18
3-1-0
7.35
3-1-0
9.57
1-3-0
9.15
2-1-1
7.88
4-0-0
10.60
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +11.7
Allowed 0.97 -9.6
Differential 0.97 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.94%7.64%4.17%5.21%2.43%3.12%29.51%
17.64%8.33%6.25%4.86%2.08%1.74%30.90%
24.17%6.25%2.08%1.04%1.39%0.69%15.62%
35.21%4.86%1.04%0.69%0.35%—12.15%
42.43%2.08%1.39%0.35%——6.25%
5+3.12%1.74%0.69%———5.56%
Total29.51%30.90%15.62%12.15%6.25%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.54 +0.00
SD 1.53 1.53 2.45
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
118.75%9.38%—3.12%——31.25%
23.12%12.50%3.12%———18.75%
39.38%6.25%3.12%———18.75%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+6.25%3.12%————9.38%
Total43.75%43.75%9.38%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.72 +1.28
SD 1.59 0.77 1.87
CV 0.79 1.07 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%37.50%
16.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%34.38%
23.12%6.25%——3.12%—12.50%
33.12%—————3.12%
4—9.38%————9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total21.88%31.25%18.75%12.50%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.75 -0.53
SD 1.41 1.50 2.40
CV 1.16 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%3.12%6.25%6.25%9.38%46.88%
1—6.25%15.62%9.38%6.25%3.12%40.62%
2—3.12%————3.12%
33.12%—————3.12%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total15.62%25.00%18.75%15.62%12.50%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 2.31 -1.47
SD 1.19 1.84 2.48
CV 1.42 0.80 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%6.25%——18.75%
112.50%6.25%3.12%6.25%——28.12%
26.25%18.75%3.12%———28.12%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%—3.12%———6.25%
Total31.25%43.75%12.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.06 +0.75
SD 1.49 0.98 1.95
CV 0.82 0.92 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%3.12%9.38%——34.38%
13.12%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%40.62%
23.12%3.12%——3.12%3.12%12.50%
3—6.25%——3.12%—9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%34.38%12.50%15.62%12.50%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.03 -0.97
SD 1.08 1.60 1.77
CV 1.01 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%3.12%6.25%—6.25%—31.25%
19.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
26.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%25.00%
3—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%——3.12%——6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%18.75%9.38%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.47 -0.03
SD 1.37 1.54 1.93
CV 0.95 1.05 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%——3.12%21.88%
1—9.38%————9.38%
26.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
39.38%12.50%—3.12%——25.00%
49.38%—3.12%———12.50%
5+3.12%6.25%————9.38%
Total34.38%43.75%12.50%6.25%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.03 +1.25
SD 1.67 1.12 2.23
CV 0.73 1.09 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%6.25%15.62%6.25%12.50%53.12%
1——15.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%28.12%
2———3.12%3.12%—6.25%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.12%15.62%25.00%28.12%12.50%15.62%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.88 -2.09
SD 1.04 1.58 2.07
CV 1.33 0.55 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—————6.25%
118.75%12.50%3.12%6.25%——40.62%
29.38%—3.12%———12.50%
315.62%—————15.62%
43.12%—6.25%———9.38%
5+12.50%3.12%————15.62%
Total65.62%15.62%12.50%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 0.59 +1.81
SD 1.88 0.95 2.24
CV 0.78 1.59 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Suduva 1635 62 58.14 +3.86 76.0% 41 46 53 58 62 70 75
VMFD Zalgiris 1587 73 74.67 -1.67 40.0% 63 64 71 75 78 83 86
Atlantas 1542 71 54.25 +16.75 99.0% 31 43 50 55 59 64 73
Ekranas 1406 64 62.14 +1.86 67.0% 49 51 58 62 66 71 77
Kruoja Pakruojis 1331 48 47.40 +0.60 55.0% 28 36 42 47 52 59 65
Banga Gargzdai 1202 35 34.71 +0.29 53.0% 22 24 30 35 39 44 50
Dainava Alytus 951 17 26.96 -9.96 3.0% 15 19 23 27 30 36 45
FK Siauliai 919 25 34.01 -9.01 9.0% 17 23 30 34 38 42 53
Tauras Taurage 900 11 14.19 -3.19 33.0% 5 6 10 14 18 23 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 3% * Slight Edge: 3% to 8% * Clear Edge: 8% to 11.5% * Strong Edge: 11.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.39%
No Edge
40.28%18.06%41.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -4.83 Elo pts.
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.08 goals
Neutral
-2-0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.23 * Comfortable: 0.23 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
88%
VMFD Zalgiris, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.330.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.97 * Some Luck: 4.97 to 7.46 * Lucky: 7.46 to 9.94 * Wild Swing: 9.94 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.43 * Close: 0.43 to 0.64 * Off: 0.64 to 0.85 * Way Off: 0.85 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.40 points
Some Luck
06.2116
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.44
Close
00.531.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Atlantas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Dainava Alytus
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.65 * Strong Separation: 2.65 to 2.85 * Wide Separation: 2.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 77.5% * Slight Edge: 77.5% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 90% * Wide Edge: 90% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51% * Some Drama: 51% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 60% * Very Frequent: 60% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 19.5% * Occasional: 19.5% to 22.5% * Frequent: 22.5% to 27% * Very Frequent: 27% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 295.15
3.08
Wide Separation
12.52.853.5
Interquartile Edge
97%
Wide Edge
50%77.5%86.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.53 * Notable Separation: 0.53 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.65 * Some Carryover: 0.65 to 0.72 * Strong Carryover: 0.72 to 0.81 * Near-Lock: 0.81 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14% * As Expected: 14% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.61
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.39
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Weak Carryover
00.650.811
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.83
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.08
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.086
Well Within Noise
00.1160.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
VMFD Zalgiris88.00%9.00%3.00%——————
Atlantas1.00%14.00%23.00%39.00%21.00%2.00%———
Ekranas7.00%48.00%31.00%9.00%5.00%————
Suduva4.00%26.00%38.00%24.00%8.00%————
Kruoja Pakruojis—3.00%5.00%27.00%49.00%13.00%3.00%——
Banga Gargzdai————8.00%42.00%34.00%16.00%—
FK Siauliai———1.00%7.00%36.00%39.00%15.00%2.00%
Dainava Alytus————2.00%7.00%23.00%64.00%4.00%
Tauras Taurage——————1.00%5.00%94.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Atlantas 100% —
Banga Gargzdai 100% —
Ekranas 100% —
Kruoja Pakruojis 100% —
Suduva 100% —
VMFD Zalgiris 100% —
FK Siauliai 98.00% 2.00%
Dainava Alytus 96.00% 4.00%
Tauras Taurage 6.00% 94.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2013-03-09 Atlantas L 0-150.3 1358 1116 67.59% 18.45% 13.97%+1.09 -43.6 0
2013-03-09 @ Suduva W 1-050.3 1116 1358 13.97% 18.45% 67.59%-1.09 +43.6 3
2013-03-09 Ekranas L 1-336.5 1148 1444 10.63% 18.11% 71.25%-1.39 -13.6 0
2013-03-09 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-136.5 1444 1148 71.25% 18.11% 10.63%+1.39 +13.6 3
2013-03-10 FK Siauliai D 1-155.4 1281 1300 37.76% 19.15% 43.09%-0.11 +0.8 1
2013-03-10 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-155.4 1300 1281 43.09% 19.15% 37.76%+0.11 -0.8 1
2013-03-10 Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-239.1 1077 1314 14.31% 18.47% 67.22%-1.11 -10.4 0
2013-03-10 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-139.1 1314 1077 67.22% 18.47% 14.31%+1.11 +10.4 3
2013-03-12 Atlantas L 1-256.4 1435 1159 69.93% 18.25% 11.82%+1.25 -42.6 0
2013-03-12 @ VMFD Zalgiris W 2-156.4 1159 1435 11.82% 18.25% 69.93%-1.25 +42.6 6
2013-03-13 Dainava Alytus W 2-033.0 1325 1134 63.28% 18.71% 18.00%+0.85 +25.7 6
2013-03-13 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-233.0 1134 1325 18.00% 18.71% 63.28%-0.85 -25.7 0
2013-03-13 FK Siauliai D 0-051.6 1315 1299 42.69% 19.15% 38.16%+0.05 -0.7 1
2013-03-13 @ Suduva D 0-051.6 1299 1315 38.16% 19.15% 42.69%-0.05 +0.7 2
2013-03-13 Tauras Taurage W 2-032.1 1282 1066 65.45% 18.59% 15.95%+0.97 +23.0 4
2013-03-13 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-232.1 1066 1282 15.95% 18.59% 65.45%-0.97 -23.0 0
2013-03-16 Banga Gargzdai W 3-044.6 1108 1305 17.52% 18.69% 63.80%-0.92 +112.6 3
2013-03-16 @ Dainava Alytus L 0-344.6 1305 1108 63.80% 18.69% 17.52%+0.92 -112.6 4
2013-03-16 FK Siauliai W 1-040.0 1393 1300 52.90% 19.05% 28.05%+0.41 +20.1 3
2013-03-16 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-140.0 1300 1393 28.05% 19.05% 52.90%-0.41 -20.1 2
2013-03-17 Kruoja Pakruojis W 6-242.3 1458 1350 54.66% 19.01% 26.33%+0.47 +48.1 6
2013-03-17 @ Ekranas L 2-642.3 1350 1458 26.33% 19.01% 54.66%-0.47 -48.1 6
2013-03-17 Suduva L 1-630.7 1043 1314 12.12% 18.28% 69.60%-1.27 -34.5 0
2013-03-17 @ Tauras Taurage W 6-130.7 1314 1043 69.60% 18.28% 12.12%+1.27 +34.5 4
2013-03-29 FK Siauliai L 1-342.1 1202 1280 29.93% 19.08% 50.99%-0.38 -34.6 6
2013-03-29 @ Atlantas W 3-142.1 1280 1202 50.99% 19.08% 29.93%+0.38 +34.6 5
2013-03-30 Dainava Alytus W 4-032.3 1349 1221 56.94% 18.95% 24.11%+0.56 +63.1 7
2013-03-30 @ Suduva L 0-432.3 1221 1349 24.11% 18.95% 56.94%-0.56 -63.1 3
2013-03-30 Ekranas L 0-231.8 1192 1506 9.74% 17.99% 72.27%-1.47 -14.5 4
2013-03-30 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-031.8 1506 1192 72.27% 17.99% 9.74%+1.47 +14.5 9
2013-03-30 Tauras Taurage W 1-031.4 1413 1009 76.63% 17.28% 6.09%+1.84 +4.8 6
2013-03-30 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-131.4 1009 1413 6.09% 17.28% 76.63%-1.84 -4.8 0
2013-04-05 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-329.8 1158 1418 12.83% 18.35% 68.83%-1.22 -27.3 3
2013-04-05 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-029.8 1418 1158 68.83% 18.35% 12.83%+1.22 +27.3 9
2013-04-06 Atlantas L 0-135.9 1004 1167 20.46% 18.83% 60.71%-0.77 -15.3 0
2013-04-06 @ Tauras Taurage W 1-035.9 1167 1004 60.71% 18.83% 20.46%+0.77 +15.3 9
2013-04-06 Suduva D 2-267.5 1521 1412 54.81% 19.01% 26.19%+0.48 -3.2 10
2013-04-06 @ Ekranas D 2-267.5 1412 1521 26.19% 19.01% 54.81%-0.48 +3.2 8
2013-04-07 Banga Gargzdai W 4-032.0 1302 1178 56.59% 18.96% 24.45%+0.55 +63.8 9
2013-04-07 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-432.0 1178 1302 24.45% 18.96% 56.59%-0.55 -63.8 4
2013-04-09 Dainava Alytus W 6-137.3 1183 1131 47.65% 19.12% 33.23%+0.22 +84.5 12
2013-04-09 @ Atlantas L 1-637.3 1131 1183 33.23% 19.12% 47.65%-0.22 -84.6 3
2013-04-09 Tauras Taurage W 4-239.4 1314 989 72.92% 17.91% 9.17%+1.47 +10.6 8
2013-04-09 @ FK Siauliai L 2-439.4 989 1314 9.17% 17.91% 72.92%-1.47 -10.6 0
2013-04-10 Ekranas W 2-051.1 1445 1517 30.57% 19.09% 50.34%-0.36 +61.8 12
2013-04-10 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-251.1 1517 1445 50.34% 19.09% 30.57%+0.36 -61.8 10
2013-04-10 Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-147.2 1415 1366 47.23% 19.12% 33.65%+0.20 -31.0 8
2013-04-10 @ Suduva W 1-047.2 1366 1415 33.65% 19.12% 47.23%-0.20 +31.0 12
2013-04-13 Atlantas L 1-255.8 1456 1267 63.09% 18.72% 18.18%+0.84 -38.3 10
2013-04-13 @ Ekranas W 2-155.8 1267 1456 18.18% 18.72% 63.09%-0.84 +38.3 15
2013-04-13 FK Siauliai L 1-238.2 1046 1325 11.65% 18.23% 70.12%-1.30 -8.6 3
2013-04-13 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-138.2 1325 1046 70.12% 18.23% 11.65%+1.30 +8.6 11
2013-04-14 Suduva L 1-238.6 1114 1384 12.18% 18.28% 69.53%-1.26 -9.0 4
2013-04-14 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-138.6 1384 1114 69.53% 18.28% 12.18%+1.26 +8.9 11
2013-04-14 VMFD Zalgiris D 0-057.2 1397 1507 26.10% 19.01% 54.89%-0.53 +4.8 13
2013-04-14 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-057.2 1507 1397 54.89% 19.01% 26.10%+0.53 -4.8 13
2013-04-20 Dainava Alytus D 0-050.6 978 1038 32.24% 19.11% 48.65%-0.30 +2.7 1
2013-04-20 @ Tauras Taurage D 0-050.6 1038 978 48.65% 19.11% 32.24%+0.30 -2.7 4
2013-04-20 Ekranas L 1-441.8 1333 1417 29.15% 19.07% 51.78%-0.41 -47.9 11
2013-04-20 @ FK Siauliai W 4-141.8 1417 1333 51.78% 19.07% 29.15%+0.41 +47.9 13
2013-04-21 Banga Gargzdai W 4-239.2 1502 1105 76.33% 17.34% 6.33%+1.80 +7.3 16
2013-04-21 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 2-439.2 1105 1502 6.33% 17.34% 76.33%-1.80 -7.3 4
2013-04-21 Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-045.3 1305 1402 27.65% 19.04% 53.31%-0.47 +65.1 18
2013-04-21 @ Atlantas L 0-245.3 1402 1305 53.31% 19.04% 27.65%+0.47 -65.1 13
2013-04-27 Atlantas L 0-133.5 1098 1371 12.00% 18.27% 69.74%-1.28 -9.4 4
2013-04-27 @ Banga Gargzdai W 1-033.5 1371 1098 69.74% 18.27% 12.00%+1.28 +9.4 21
2013-04-27 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-538.1 1393 1509 25.34% 18.99% 55.67%-0.56 -81.1 11
2013-04-27 @ Suduva W 5-038.1 1509 1393 55.67% 18.99% 25.34%+0.56 +81.2 19
2013-04-28 FK Siauliai D 1-155.7 1337 1285 47.55% 19.12% 33.33%+0.21 -2.1 14
2013-04-28 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-155.7 1285 1337 33.33% 19.12% 47.55%-0.21 +2.1 12
2013-04-28 Tauras Taurage W 2-135.5 1465 981 79.48% 16.54% 3.99%+2.21 +3.0 16
2013-04-28 @ Ekranas L 1-235.5 981 1465 3.99% 16.54% 79.48%-2.21 -3.0 1
2013-05-03 Tauras Taurage L 2-361.8 1335 978 74.53% 17.67% 7.80%+1.62 -43.1 14
2013-05-03 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 3-261.8 978 1335 7.80% 17.67% 74.53%-1.62 +43.1 4
2013-05-04 Banga Gargzdai L 1-449.7 1288 1088 64.06% 18.67% 17.27%+0.89 -95.3 12
2013-05-04 @ FK Siauliai W 4-149.7 1088 1288 17.27% 18.67% 64.06%-0.89 +95.3 7
2013-05-04 Suduva D 2-261.7 1380 1312 49.79% 19.10% 31.11%+0.29 -2.0 22
2013-05-04 @ Atlantas D 2-261.7 1312 1380 31.11% 19.10% 49.79%-0.29 +2.0 12
2013-05-05 Dainava Alytus W 2-136.2 1468 1035 77.75% 17.02% 5.23%+1.97 +3.9 19
2013-05-05 @ Ekranas L 1-236.2 1035 1468 5.23% 17.02% 77.75%-1.97 -3.9 4
2013-05-07 Suduva D 1-155.1 1192 1314 24.78% 18.97% 56.25%-0.58 +4.7 13
2013-05-07 @ FK Siauliai D 1-155.1 1314 1192 56.25% 18.97% 24.78%+0.58 -4.7 13
2013-05-07 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-143.4 1378 1590 16.20% 18.61% 65.19%-1.00 -12.4 22
2013-05-07 @ Atlantas W 1-043.4 1590 1378 65.19% 18.61% 16.20%+1.00 +12.4 22
2013-05-08 Banga Gargzdai L 1-436.5 1021 1184 20.53% 18.83% 60.64%-0.77 -35.3 4
2013-05-08 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-136.5 1184 1021 60.64% 18.83% 20.53%+0.77 +35.4 10
2013-05-08 Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-155.0 1031 1292 12.77% 18.34% 68.89%-1.22 +8.9 5
2013-05-08 @ Dainava Alytus D 1-155.0 1292 1031 68.89% 18.34% 12.77%+1.22 -8.9 15
2013-05-11 Dainava Alytus W 4-136.1 1219 1040 62.22% 18.76% 19.02%+0.80 +33.0 13
2013-05-11 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-436.1 1040 1219 19.02% 18.76% 62.22%-0.80 -33.0 5
2013-05-11 Tauras Taurage W 3-027.9 1309 985 72.81% 17.92% 9.27%+1.46 +20.0 16
2013-05-11 @ Suduva L 0-327.9 985 1309 9.27% 17.92% 72.81%-1.46 -20.0 4
2013-05-12 Ekranas L 0-137.9 1283 1472 18.10% 18.72% 63.18%-0.89 -13.7 15
2013-05-12 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 1-037.9 1472 1283 63.18% 18.72% 18.10%+0.89 +13.7 22
2013-05-12 VMFD Zalgiris D 1-158.8 1197 1603 6.04% 17.26% 76.69%-1.89 +11.6 14
2013-05-12 @ FK Siauliai D 1-158.8 1603 1197 76.69% 17.26% 6.04%+1.89 -11.6 23
2013-05-21 Suduva L 1-335.3 1007 1329 9.34% 17.93% 72.73%-1.50 -12.0 5
2013-05-21 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-135.3 1329 1007 72.73% 17.93% 9.34%+1.50 +12.0 19
2013-05-22 Banga Gargzdai W 4-137.1 1486 1252 66.91% 18.50% 14.59%+1.05 +25.9 25
2013-05-22 @ Ekranas L 1-437.1 1252 1486 14.59% 18.50% 66.91%-1.05 -25.9 13
2013-05-22 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-724.7 965 1591 1.88% 15.05% 83.07%-2.90 -8.8 4
2013-05-22 @ Tauras Taurage W 7-024.7 1591 965 83.07% 15.05% 1.88%+2.90 +8.8 26
2013-05-23 Atlantas L 0-136.9 1209 1366 21.09% 18.85% 60.06%-0.74 -15.7 14
2013-05-23 @ FK Siauliai W 1-036.9 1366 1209 60.06% 18.85% 21.09%+0.74 +15.7 25
2013-05-25 Dainava Alytus W 7-025.1 1600 995 82.63% 15.28% 2.10%+2.76 +9.8 29
2013-05-25 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-725.1 995 1600 2.10% 15.28% 82.63%-2.76 -9.8 5
2013-05-25 Ekranas L 0-140.7 1341 1512 19.79% 18.80% 61.41%-0.81 -14.8 19
2013-05-25 @ Suduva W 1-040.7 1512 1341 61.41% 18.80% 19.79%+0.81 +14.8 28
2013-05-26 Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-051.0 1226 1269 34.43% 19.13% 46.44%-0.22 +1.9 14
2013-05-26 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-051.0 1269 1226 46.44% 19.13% 34.43%+0.22 -1.9 16
2013-05-26 Tauras Taurage W 4-025.5 1381 957 77.42% 17.10% 5.48%+1.93 +15.5 28
2013-05-26 @ Atlantas L 0-425.5 957 1381 5.48% 17.10% 77.42%-1.93 -15.5 4
2013-05-29 FK Siauliai L 0-231.2 941 1193 13.35% 18.40% 68.25%-1.18 -19.5 4
2013-05-29 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-031.2 1193 941 68.25% 18.40% 13.35%+1.18 +19.5 17
2013-05-29 Suduva L 0-238.0 1267 1326 32.28% 19.11% 48.61%-0.29 -42.6 16
2013-05-29 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-038.0 1326 1267 48.61% 19.11% 32.28%+0.29 +42.6 22
2013-05-29 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-348.8 1527 1610 29.24% 19.07% 51.70%-0.40 -57.0 28
2013-05-29 @ Ekranas W 3-048.8 1610 1527 51.70% 19.07% 29.24%+0.40 +57.0 32
2013-05-30 Atlantas L 1-236.1 985 1397 5.86% 17.21% 76.93%-1.91 -4.4 5
2013-05-30 @ Dainava Alytus W 2-136.1 1397 985 76.93% 17.21% 5.86%+1.91 +4.4 31
2013-06-01 Banga Gargzdai W 2-142.4 1369 1228 58.38% 18.91% 22.71%+0.63 +15.8 25
2013-06-01 @ Suduva L 1-242.4 1228 1369 22.71% 18.91% 58.38%-0.63 -15.8 14
2013-06-02 Ekranas D 1-160.1 1401 1470 31.09% 19.09% 49.81%-0.34 +2.7 32
2013-06-02 @ Atlantas D 1-160.1 1470 1401 49.81% 19.09% 31.09%+0.34 -2.7 29
2013-06-02 Kruoja Pakruojis W 4-031.3 1667 1224 78.08% 16.94% 4.98%+2.01 +14.1 35
2013-06-02 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-431.3 1224 1667 4.98% 16.94% 78.08%-2.01 -14.1 16
2013-06-03 Dainava Alytus L 1-548.4 1212 981 66.75% 18.51% 14.74%+1.04 -128.3 17
2013-06-03 @ FK Siauliai W 5-148.4 981 1212 14.74% 18.51% 66.75%-1.04 +128.3 8
2013-06-14 VMFD Zalgiris L 1-535.2 1212 1681 4.34% 16.69% 78.97%-2.18 -10.2 14
2013-06-14 @ Banga Gargzdai W 5-135.2 1681 1212 78.97% 16.69% 4.34%+2.18 +10.2 38
2013-06-15 Atlantas W 2-047.4 1210 1404 17.75% 18.70% 63.55%-0.91 +77.2 19
2013-06-15 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-247.4 1404 1210 63.55% 18.70% 17.75%+0.91 -77.2 32
2013-06-15 FK Siauliai W 2-137.0 1467 1084 75.72% 17.46% 6.81%+1.74 +5.1 32
2013-06-15 @ Ekranas L 1-237.0 1084 1467 6.81% 17.46% 75.72%-1.74 -5.1 17
2013-06-16 Tauras Taurage W 2-140.1 1109 922 62.98% 18.73% 18.29%+0.84 +13.0 11
2013-06-16 @ Dainava Alytus L 1-240.1 922 1109 18.29% 18.73% 62.98%-0.84 -13.0 4
2013-06-18 Banga Gargzdai W 3-033.2 1327 1202 56.61% 18.96% 24.43%+0.55 +48.8 35
2013-06-18 @ Atlantas L 0-333.2 1202 1327 24.43% 18.96% 56.61%-0.55 -48.8 14
2013-06-18 Suduva W 2-042.8 1691 1385 71.84% 18.04% 10.12%+1.39 +15.0 41
2013-06-18 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-242.8 1385 1691 10.12% 18.04% 71.84%-1.39 -15.0 25
2013-06-19 Ekranas L 0-325.3 909 1472 2.62% 15.73% 81.65%-2.61 -5.6 4
2013-06-19 @ Tauras Taurage W 3-025.3 1472 909 81.65% 15.73% 2.62%+2.61 +5.6 35
2013-06-19 Kruoja Pakruojis L 3-447.8 1079 1287 16.51% 18.63% 64.86%-0.98 -11.0 17
2013-06-19 @ FK Siauliai W 4-347.8 1287 1079 64.86% 18.63% 16.51%+0.98 +11.0 22
2013-06-22 Banga Gargzdai L 0-138.6 1068 1153 29.00% 19.06% 51.94%-0.41 -20.7 17
2013-06-22 @ FK Siauliai W 1-038.6 1153 1068 51.94% 19.06% 29.00%+0.41 +20.7 17
2013-06-22 Suduva W 3-254.2 1375 1370 41.27% 19.15% 39.58%+0.00 +23.9 38
2013-06-22 @ Atlantas L 2-354.2 1370 1375 39.58% 19.15% 41.27%+0.00 -23.9 25
2013-06-23 Ekranas L 0-328.3 1122 1478 7.85% 17.68% 74.46%-1.66 -17.0 11
2013-06-23 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-028.3 1478 1122 74.46% 17.68% 7.85%+1.66 +17.0 38
2013-06-24 Kruoja Pakruojis L 2-341.2 903 1298 6.38% 17.35% 76.27%-1.84 -4.5 4
2013-06-24 @ Tauras Taurage W 3-241.2 1298 903 76.27% 17.35% 6.38%+1.84 +4.5 25
2013-06-28 FK Siauliai W 3-028.4 1346 1047 71.36% 18.10% 10.55%+1.35 +22.7 28
2013-06-28 @ Suduva L 0-328.4 1047 1346 10.55% 18.10% 71.36%-1.35 -22.7 17
2013-06-29 Atlantas W 1-046.3 1706 1399 71.85% 18.04% 10.11%+1.39 +7.9 44
2013-06-29 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-146.3 1399 1706 10.11% 18.04% 71.85%-1.39 -7.9 38
2013-06-29 Tauras Taurage W 5-027.4 1174 898 69.89% 18.25% 11.86%+1.24 +40.8 20
2013-06-29 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-527.4 898 1174 11.86% 18.25% 69.89%-1.24 -40.8 4
2013-06-30 Dainava Alytus D 0-051.0 1303 1105 63.95% 18.68% 17.37%+0.89 -8.1 26
2013-06-30 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-051.0 1105 1303 17.37% 18.68% 63.95%-0.89 +8.1 12
2013-07-06 Dainava Alytus W 2-143.0 1215 1113 53.93% 19.03% 27.04%+0.44 +18.3 23
2013-07-06 @ Banga Gargzdai L 1-243.0 1113 1215 27.04% 19.03% 53.93%-0.44 -18.3 12
2013-07-07 Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-355.2 1495 1295 64.09% 18.67% 17.24%+0.90 -67.4 38
2013-07-07 @ Ekranas W 3-155.2 1295 1495 17.24% 18.67% 64.09%-0.90 +67.4 29
2013-07-07 VMFD Zalgiris L 2-438.3 1025 1714 1.33% 14.33% 84.34%-3.19 -1.5 17
2013-07-07 @ FK Siauliai W 4-238.3 1714 1025 84.34% 14.33% 1.33%+3.19 +1.5 47
2013-08-03 Ekranas L 1-241.4 1233 1427 17.69% 18.70% 63.61%-0.91 -12.6 23
2013-08-03 @ Banga Gargzdai W 2-141.4 1427 1233 63.61% 18.70% 17.69%+0.91 +12.6 41
2013-08-03 FK Siauliai W 3-027.4 1391 1023 75.07% 17.58% 7.35%+1.67 +16.0 41
2013-08-03 @ Atlantas L 0-327.4 1023 1391 7.35% 17.58% 75.07%-1.67 -16.0 17
2013-08-04 Dainava Alytus W 4-028.0 1368 1095 69.78% 18.26% 11.96%+1.24 +33.4 31
2013-08-04 @ Suduva L 0-428.0 1095 1368 11.96% 18.26% 69.78%-1.24 -33.4 12
2013-08-04 Tauras Taurage W 3-024.3 1716 858 87.11% 12.35% 0.54%+3.92 +1.1 50
2013-08-04 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-324.3 858 1716 0.54% 12.35% 87.11%-3.92 -1.1 4
2013-08-09 Atlantas L 0-524.0 857 1407 2.80% 15.86% 81.33%-2.55 -9.7 4
2013-08-09 @ Tauras Taurage W 5-024.0 1407 857 81.33% 15.86% 2.80%+2.55 +9.7 44
2013-08-10 Banga Gargzdai W 1-037.4 1362 1220 58.50% 18.91% 22.59%+0.63 +16.7 32
2013-08-10 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-137.4 1220 1362 22.59% 18.91% 58.50%-0.63 -16.6 23
2013-08-10 Suduva L 1-351.1 1440 1402 45.77% 19.13% 35.09%+0.15 -49.2 41
2013-08-10 @ Ekranas W 3-151.1 1402 1440 35.09% 19.13% 45.77%-0.15 +49.2 34
2013-08-12 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-132.2 1061 1717 1.60% 14.72% 83.68%-3.03 -1.2 12
2013-08-12 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-032.2 1717 1061 83.68% 14.72% 1.60%+3.03 +1.2 53
2013-08-16 Tauras Taurage W 3-138.9 1007 847 60.38% 18.84% 20.78%+0.71 +25.3 20
2013-08-16 @ FK Siauliai L 1-338.9 847 1007 20.78% 18.84% 60.38%-0.71 -25.3 4
2013-08-17 Dainava Alytus W 4-132.7 1417 1060 74.53% 17.67% 7.80%+1.62 +14.3 47
2013-08-17 @ Atlantas L 1-432.7 1060 1417 7.80% 17.67% 74.53%-1.62 -14.3 12
2013-08-17 Kruoja Pakruojis W 4-037.9 1451 1379 50.27% 19.09% 30.64%+0.31 +77.4 37
2013-08-17 @ Suduva L 0-437.9 1379 1451 30.64% 19.09% 50.27%-0.31 -77.4 32
2013-08-20 Atlantas W 1-047.8 1391 1431 34.72% 19.13% 46.15%-0.21 +30.4 44
2013-08-20 @ Ekranas L 0-147.8 1431 1391 46.15% 19.13% 34.72%+0.21 -30.4 47
2013-08-20 Suduva L 0-330.1 1204 1528 9.21% 17.91% 72.87%-1.51 -19.9 23
2013-08-20 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-030.1 1528 1204 72.87% 17.91% 9.21%+1.51 +19.9 40
2013-08-21 FK Siauliai L 0-142.6 1046 1032 42.33% 19.15% 38.52%+0.04 -28.2 12
2013-08-21 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-042.6 1032 1046 38.52% 19.15% 42.33%-0.04 +28.2 23
2013-08-24 Ekranas L 1-237.0 1061 1421 7.67% 17.64% 74.69%-1.68 -5.7 23
2013-08-24 @ FK Siauliai W 2-137.0 1421 1061 74.69% 17.64% 7.67%+1.68 +5.7 47
2013-08-24 Kruoja Pakruojis W 3-142.8 1401 1302 53.67% 19.03% 27.30%+0.43 +32.0 50
2013-08-24 @ Atlantas L 1-342.8 1302 1401 27.30% 19.03% 53.67%-0.43 -32.0 32
2013-08-25 Banga Gargzdai W 5-030.6 1718 1184 80.90% 16.04% 3.06%+2.43 +10.6 56
2013-08-25 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-530.6 1184 1718 3.06% 16.04% 80.90%-2.43 -10.6 23
2013-08-26 Dainava Alytus L 0-429.5 822 1018 17.55% 18.69% 63.76%-0.92 -47.6 4
2013-08-26 @ Tauras Taurage W 4-029.5 1018 822 63.76% 18.69% 17.55%+0.92 +47.6 15
2013-08-31 Atlantas D 0-051.8 1173 1433 12.82% 18.35% 68.84%-1.22 +9.9 24
2013-08-31 @ Banga Gargzdai D 0-051.8 1433 1173 68.84% 18.35% 12.82%+1.22 -10.0 51
2013-09-01 FK Siauliai D 0-050.9 1270 1055 65.37% 18.60% 16.04%+0.96 -8.6 33
2013-09-01 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-050.9 1055 1270 16.04% 18.60% 65.37%-0.96 +8.6 24
2013-09-01 Tauras Taurage W 5-023.3 1427 774 83.63% 14.75% 1.63%+2.98 +5.5 50
2013-09-01 @ Ekranas L 0-523.3 774 1427 1.63% 14.75% 83.63%-2.98 -5.5 4
2013-09-02 VMFD Zalgiris D 1-172.5 1548 1728 18.92% 18.76% 62.32%-0.85 +6.7 41
2013-09-02 @ Suduva D 1-172.5 1728 1548 62.32% 18.76% 18.92%+0.85 -6.7 57
2013-09-07 Suduva D 3-366.0 769 1555 0.79% 13.20% 86.01%-3.64 +8.5 5
2013-09-07 @ Tauras Taurage D 3-366.0 1555 769 86.01% 13.20% 0.79%+3.64 -8.5 42
2013-09-13 FK Siauliai W 3-032.9 1183 1064 56.02% 18.98% 25.00%+0.53 +49.8 27
2013-09-13 @ Banga Gargzdai L 0-332.9 1064 1183 25.00% 18.98% 56.02%-0.53 -49.8 24
2013-09-14 Atlantas D 1-163.5 1546 1423 56.46% 18.97% 24.57%+0.54 -4.8 43
2013-09-14 @ Suduva D 1-163.5 1423 1546 24.57% 18.97% 56.46%-0.54 +4.8 52
2013-09-14 Tauras Taurage W 2-135.2 1261 777 79.45% 16.54% 4.00%+2.20 +3.0 36
2013-09-14 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-235.2 777 1261 4.00% 16.54% 79.45%-2.20 -3.0 5
2013-09-15 Dainava Alytus W 2-137.0 1432 1065 75.00% 17.59% 7.41%+1.66 +5.5 53
2013-09-15 @ Ekranas L 1-237.0 1065 1432 7.41% 17.59% 75.00%-1.66 -5.5 15
2013-09-17 Banga Gargzdai L 1-235.4 774 1233 4.57% 16.79% 78.64%-2.13 -3.4 5
2013-09-17 @ Tauras Taurage W 2-135.4 1233 774 78.64% 16.79% 4.57%+2.13 +3.4 30
2013-09-17 VMFD Zalgiris W 3-168.8 1428 1722 10.79% 18.13% 71.08%-1.37 +75.0 55
2013-09-17 @ Atlantas L 1-368.8 1722 1428 71.08% 18.13% 10.79%+1.37 -75.0 57
2013-09-18 Kruoja Pakruojis D 1-154.9 1060 1264 16.86% 18.65% 64.49%-0.96 +7.4 16
2013-09-18 @ Dainava Alytus D 1-154.9 1264 1060 64.49% 18.65% 16.86%+0.96 -7.4 37
2013-09-18 Suduva L 1-529.2 1014 1542 3.17% 16.10% 80.73%-2.45 -7.4 24
2013-09-18 @ FK Siauliai W 5-129.2 1542 1014 80.73% 16.10% 3.17%+2.45 +7.4 46
2013-09-21 FK Siauliai W 2-028.0 1647 1006 83.38% 14.89% 1.74%+2.92 +2.5 60
2013-09-21 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-228.0 1006 1647 1.74% 14.89% 83.38%-2.92 -2.5 24
2013-09-22 Ekranas W 1-050.3 1256 1438 18.83% 18.76% 62.41%-0.85 +40.2 40
2013-09-22 @ Kruoja Pakruojis L 0-150.3 1438 1256 62.41% 18.76% 18.83%+0.85 -40.2 53
2013-09-23 Tauras Taurage W 3-131.3 1549 771 85.88% 13.29% 0.83%+3.56 +1.0 49
2013-09-23 @ Suduva L 1-331.3 771 1549 0.83% 13.29% 85.88%-3.56 -1.0 5
2013-09-25 Ekranas W 3-040.9 1649 1397 68.26% 18.39% 13.34%+1.14 +28.3 63
2013-09-25 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-340.9 1397 1649 13.34% 18.39% 68.26%-1.14 -28.3 53
2013-09-28 Atlantas L 0-130.6 1004 1503 3.69% 16.39% 79.91%-2.32 -2.9 24
2013-09-28 @ FK Siauliai W 1-030.6 1503 1004 79.91% 16.39% 3.69%+2.32 +2.9 58
2013-09-28 Suduva L 0-525.6 1067 1550 4.02% 16.55% 79.43%-2.24 -14.0 16
2013-09-28 @ Dainava Alytus W 5-025.6 1550 1067 79.43% 16.55% 4.02%+2.24 +14.0 52
2013-09-29 Banga Gargzdai W 2-035.4 1369 1236 57.50% 18.94% 23.56%+0.59 +32.6 56
2013-09-29 @ Ekranas L 0-235.4 1236 1369 23.56% 18.94% 57.50%-0.59 -32.6 30
2013-09-29 VMFD Zalgiris L 0-323.6 770 1678 0.41% 11.77% 87.82%-4.19 -0.8 5
2013-09-29 @ Tauras Taurage W 3-023.6 1678 770 87.82% 11.77% 0.41%+4.19 +0.8 66
2013-10-05 Dainava Alytus W 1-031.5 1678 1053 83.06% 15.05% 1.88%+2.85 +1.4 69
2013-10-05 @ VMFD Zalgiris L 0-131.5 1053 1678 1.88% 15.05% 83.06%-2.85 -1.5 16
2013-10-05 Ekranas D 0-059.4 1564 1402 60.60% 18.83% 20.57%+0.72 -6.8 53
2013-10-05 @ Suduva D 0-059.4 1402 1564 20.57% 18.83% 60.60%-0.72 +6.8 57
2013-10-05 Kruoja Pakruojis L 1-341.6 1204 1297 28.06% 19.05% 52.89%-0.45 -32.8 30
2013-10-05 @ Banga Gargzdai W 3-141.6 1297 1204 52.89% 19.05% 28.06%+0.45 +32.8 43
2013-10-06 Tauras Taurage W 3-024.2 1506 769 85.19% 13.78% 1.03%+3.36 +2.1 61
2013-10-06 @ Atlantas L 0-324.2 769 1506 1.03% 13.78% 85.19%-3.36 -2.1 5
2013-10-08 Banga Gargzdai L 0-137.4 1052 1171 25.02% 18.98% 56.00%-0.57 -18.2 16
2013-10-08 @ Dainava Alytus W 1-037.4 1171 1052 56.00% 18.98% 25.02%+0.57 +18.2 33
2013-10-19 VMFD Zalgiris D 1-168.1 1409 1680 12.10% 18.28% 69.62%-1.27 +9.2 58
2013-10-19 @ Ekranas D 1-168.1 1680 1409 69.62% 18.28% 12.10%+1.27 -9.2 70
2013-10-20 FK Siauliai W 3-152.6 767 1001 14.57% 18.50% 66.93%-1.10 +70.5 8
2013-10-20 @ Tauras Taurage L 1-352.6 1001 767 66.93% 18.50% 14.57%+1.10 -70.5 24
2013-10-20 Suduva L 2-447.2 1329 1557 15.04% 18.53% 66.43%-1.07 -16.9 43
2013-10-20 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 4-247.2 1557 1329 66.43% 18.53% 15.04%+1.07 +16.9 56
2013-10-26 Ekranas W 1-045.6 1508 1418 52.55% 19.05% 28.40%+0.39 +20.3 64
2013-10-26 @ Atlantas L 0-145.6 1418 1508 28.40% 19.05% 52.55%-0.39 -20.3 58
2013-10-26 Kruoja Pakruojis D 2-269.7 1671 1313 74.58% 17.66% 7.76%+1.62 -8.1 71
2013-10-26 @ VMFD Zalgiris D 2-269.7 1313 1671 7.76% 17.66% 74.58%-1.62 +8.1 44
2013-10-27 Banga Gargzdai W 2-031.8 1574 1189 75.82% 17.44% 6.74%+1.75 +10.1 59
2013-10-27 @ Suduva L 0-231.8 1189 1574 6.74% 17.44% 75.82%-1.75 -10.1 33
2013-10-27 Dainava Alytus D 0-050.6 930 1033 26.88% 19.02% 54.10%-0.50 +4.5 25
2013-10-27 @ FK Siauliai D 0-050.6 1033 930 54.10% 19.02% 26.88%+0.50 -4.5 17
2013-10-29 VMFD Zalgiris D 0-060.4 1321 1662 8.44% 17.79% 73.78%-1.59 +11.8 45
2013-10-29 @ Kruoja Pakruojis D 0-060.4 1662 1321 73.78% 17.79% 8.44%+1.59 -11.8 72
2013-10-30 Atlantas L 0-525.1 1029 1528 3.69% 16.39% 79.92%-2.32 -12.8 17
2013-10-30 @ Dainava Alytus W 5-025.1 1528 1029 79.92% 16.39% 3.69%+2.32 +12.8 67
2013-11-02 FK Siauliai W 3-133.5 1397 935 78.77% 16.75% 4.48%+2.10 +5.8 61
2013-11-02 @ Ekranas L 1-333.5 935 1397 4.48% 16.75% 78.77%-2.10 -5.8 25
2013-11-02 VMFD Zalgiris D 1-159.7 1179 1651 4.27% 16.66% 79.07%-2.19 +12.3 34
2013-11-02 @ Banga Gargzdai D 1-159.7 1651 1179 79.07% 16.66% 4.27%+2.19 -12.3 73
2013-11-03 Atlantas L 1-245.2 1333 1541 16.53% 18.63% 64.85%-0.98 -11.9 45
2013-11-03 @ Kruoja Pakruojis W 2-145.2 1541 1333 64.85% 18.63% 16.53%+0.98 +11.9 70
2013-11-03 Tauras Taurage L 1-351.3 1016 837 62.18% 18.77% 19.05%+0.80 -65.4 17
2013-11-03 @ Dainava Alytus W 3-151.3 837 1016 19.05% 18.77% 62.18%-0.80 +65.4 11
2013-11-09 Banga Gargzdai D 1-157.6 1553 1191 74.75% 17.63% 7.62%+1.64 -10.9 71
2013-11-09 @ Atlantas D 1-157.6 1191 1553 7.62% 17.63% 74.75%-1.64 +10.9 35
2013-11-09 Ekranas L 0-130.2 903 1403 3.66% 16.38% 79.96%-2.32 -2.9 11
2013-11-09 @ Tauras Taurage W 1-030.2 1403 903 79.96% 16.38% 3.66%+2.32 +2.9 64
2013-11-09 Kruoja Pakruojis L 2-535.0 929 1321 6.51% 17.39% 76.10%-1.82 -10.3 25
2013-11-09 @ FK Siauliai W 5-235.0 1321 929 76.10% 17.39% 6.51%+1.82 +10.3 48
2013-11-09 Suduva L 1-363.9 1638 1584 47.95% 19.12% 32.93%+0.23 -51.3 73
2013-11-09 @ VMFD Zalgiris W 3-163.9 1584 1638 32.93% 19.12% 47.95%-0.23 +51.3 62

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2013-05-03 7.80% Tauras Taurage 978 3 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1335 2
2 2013-09-17 10.79% @ Atlantas 1428 3 VMFD Zalgiris 1722 1
3 2013-03-12 11.82% Atlantas 1159 2 @ VMFD Zalgiris 1435 1
4 2013-03-09 13.97% Atlantas 1116 1 @ Suduva 1358 0
5 2013-10-20 14.57% @ Tauras Taurage 767 3 FK Siauliai 1001 1
6 2013-06-03 14.74% Dainava Alytus 981 5 @ FK Siauliai 1212 1
7 2013-07-07 17.24% Kruoja Pakruojis 1295 3 @ Ekranas 1495 1
8 2013-05-04 17.27% Banga Gargzdai 1088 4 @ FK Siauliai 1288 1
9 2013-03-16 17.52% @ Dainava Alytus 1108 3 Banga Gargzdai 1305 0
10 2013-06-15 17.75% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1210 2 Atlantas 1404 0
11 2013-04-13 18.18% Atlantas 1267 2 @ Ekranas 1456 1
12 2013-09-22 18.83% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1256 1 Ekranas 1438 0
13 2013-11-03 19.05% Tauras Taurage 837 3 @ Dainava Alytus 1016 1
14 2013-04-21 27.65% @ Atlantas 1305 2 Kruoja Pakruojis 1402 0
15 2013-04-10 30.57% @ VMFD Zalgiris 1445 2 Ekranas 1517 0
16 2013-11-09 32.93% Suduva 1584 3 @ VMFD Zalgiris 1638 1
17 2013-04-10 33.65% Kruoja Pakruojis 1366 1 @ Suduva 1415 0
18 2013-08-20 34.72% @ Ekranas 1391 1 Atlantas 1431 0
19 2013-08-10 35.09% Suduva 1402 3 @ Ekranas 1440 1
20 2013-08-21 38.52% FK Siauliai 1032 1 @ Dainava Alytus 1046 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-06-03 128.32 Dainava Alytus 5 981 14.74% @ FK Siauliai 1 1212 66.75% 18.51%
2 2013-03-16 112.57 @ Dainava Alytus 3 1108 17.52% Banga Gargzdai 0 1305 63.80% 18.69%
3 2013-05-04 95.32 Banga Gargzdai 4 1088 17.27% @ FK Siauliai 1 1288 64.06% 18.67%
4 2013-04-09 84.55 @ Atlantas 6 1183 47.65% Dainava Alytus 1 1131 33.23% 19.12%
5 2013-04-27 81.15 VMFD Zalgiris 5 1509 55.67% @ Suduva 0 1393 25.34% 18.99%
6 2013-08-17 77.41 @ Suduva 4 1451 50.27% Kruoja Pakruojis 0 1379 30.64% 19.09%
7 2013-06-15 77.21 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1210 17.75% Atlantas 0 1404 63.55% 18.70%
8 2013-09-17 74.99 @ Atlantas 3 1428 10.79% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1722 71.08% 18.13%
9 2013-10-20 70.48 @ Tauras Taurage 3 767 14.57% FK Siauliai 1 1001 66.93% 18.50%
10 2013-07-07 67.44 Kruoja Pakruojis 3 1295 17.24% @ Ekranas 1 1495 64.09% 18.67%
11 2013-11-03 65.42 Tauras Taurage 3 837 19.05% @ Dainava Alytus 1 1016 62.18% 18.77%
12 2013-04-21 65.14 @ Atlantas 2 1305 27.65% Kruoja Pakruojis 0 1402 53.31% 19.04%
13 2013-04-07 63.83 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 4 1302 56.59% Banga Gargzdai 0 1178 24.45% 18.96%
14 2013-03-30 63.07 @ Suduva 4 1349 56.94% Dainava Alytus 0 1221 24.11% 18.95%
15 2013-04-10 61.82 @ VMFD Zalgiris 2 1445 30.57% Ekranas 0 1517 50.34% 19.09%
16 2013-05-29 56.95 VMFD Zalgiris 3 1610 51.70% @ Ekranas 0 1527 29.24% 19.07%
17 2013-11-09 51.28 Suduva 3 1584 32.93% @ VMFD Zalgiris 1 1638 47.95% 19.12%
18 2013-09-13 49.82 @ Banga Gargzdai 3 1183 56.02% FK Siauliai 0 1064 25.00% 18.98%
19 2013-08-10 49.25 Suduva 3 1402 35.09% @ Ekranas 1 1440 45.77% 19.13%
20 2013-06-18 48.83 @ Atlantas 3 1327 56.61% Banga Gargzdai 0 1202 24.43% 18.96%
21 2013-03-17 48.11 @ Ekranas 6 1458 54.66% Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1350 26.33% 19.01%
22 2013-04-20 47.92 Ekranas 4 1417 51.78% @ FK Siauliai 1 1333 29.15% 19.07%
23 2013-08-26 47.59 Dainava Alytus 4 1018 63.76% @ Tauras Taurage 0 822 17.55% 18.69%
24 2013-03-09 43.60 Atlantas 1 1116 13.97% @ Suduva 0 1358 67.59% 18.45%
25 2013-05-03 43.11 Tauras Taurage 3 978 7.80% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1335 74.53% 17.67%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-09-02 72.5 @ Suduva 1 1548 18.92% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1728 62.32% 18.76%
2 2013-10-26 69.7 @ VMFD Zalgiris 2 1671 74.58% Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1313 7.76% 17.66%
3 2013-09-17 68.8 @ Atlantas 3 1428 10.79% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1722 71.08% 18.13%
4 2013-10-19 68.1 @ Ekranas 1 1409 12.10% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1680 69.62% 18.28%
5 2013-04-06 67.5 @ Ekranas 2 1521 54.81% Suduva 2 1412 26.19% 19.01%
6 2013-09-07 66.0 @ Tauras Taurage 3 769 0.79% Suduva 3 1555 86.01% 13.20%
7 2013-11-09 63.9 Suduva 3 1584 32.93% @ VMFD Zalgiris 1 1638 47.95% 19.12%
8 2013-09-14 63.5 @ Suduva 1 1546 56.46% Atlantas 1 1423 24.57% 18.97%
9 2013-05-03 61.8 Tauras Taurage 3 978 7.80% @ Kruoja Pakruojis 2 1335 74.53% 17.67%
10 2013-05-04 61.7 @ Atlantas 2 1380 49.79% Suduva 2 1312 31.11% 19.10%
11 2013-10-29 60.4 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 0 1321 8.44% VMFD Zalgiris 0 1662 73.78% 17.79%
12 2013-06-02 60.1 @ Atlantas 1 1401 31.09% Ekranas 1 1470 49.81% 19.09%
13 2013-11-02 59.7 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1179 4.27% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1651 79.07% 16.66%
14 2013-10-05 59.4 @ Suduva 0 1564 60.60% Ekranas 0 1402 20.57% 18.83%
15 2013-05-12 58.8 @ FK Siauliai 1 1197 6.04% VMFD Zalgiris 1 1603 76.69% 17.26%
16 2013-11-09 57.6 @ Atlantas 1 1553 74.75% Banga Gargzdai 1 1191 7.62% 17.63%
17 2013-04-14 57.2 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 0 1397 26.10% VMFD Zalgiris 0 1507 54.89% 19.01%
18 2013-03-12 56.4 Atlantas 2 1159 11.82% @ VMFD Zalgiris 1 1435 69.93% 18.25%
19 2013-04-13 55.8 Atlantas 2 1267 18.18% @ Ekranas 1 1456 63.09% 18.72%
20 2013-04-28 55.7 @ Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1337 47.55% FK Siauliai 1 1285 33.33% 19.12%
21 2013-03-10 55.4 @ Banga Gargzdai 1 1281 37.76% FK Siauliai 1 1300 43.09% 19.15%
22 2013-07-07 55.2 Kruoja Pakruojis 3 1295 17.24% @ Ekranas 1 1495 64.09% 18.67%
23 2013-05-07 55.1 @ FK Siauliai 1 1192 24.78% Suduva 1 1314 56.25% 18.97%
24 2013-05-08 55.0 @ Dainava Alytus 1 1031 12.77% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1292 68.89% 18.34%
25 2013-09-18 54.9 @ Dainava Alytus 1 1060 16.86% Kruoja Pakruojis 1 1264 64.49% 18.65%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-09-01 23.3 @ Ekranas 5 1427 83.63% Tauras Taurage 0 774 1.63% 14.75%
2 2013-09-29 23.6 VMFD Zalgiris 3 1678 87.82% @ Tauras Taurage 0 770 0.41% 11.77%
3 2013-08-09 24.0 Atlantas 5 1407 81.33% @ Tauras Taurage 0 857 2.80% 15.86%
4 2013-10-06 24.2 @ Atlantas 3 1506 85.19% Tauras Taurage 0 769 1.03% 13.78%
5 2013-08-04 24.3 @ VMFD Zalgiris 3 1716 87.11% Tauras Taurage 0 858 0.54% 12.35%
6 2013-05-22 24.7 VMFD Zalgiris 7 1591 83.07% @ Tauras Taurage 0 965 1.88% 15.05%
7 2013-05-25 25.1 @ VMFD Zalgiris 7 1600 82.63% Dainava Alytus 0 995 2.10% 15.28%
8 2013-10-30 25.1 Atlantas 5 1528 79.92% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1029 3.69% 16.39%
9 2013-06-19 25.3 Ekranas 3 1472 81.65% @ Tauras Taurage 0 909 2.62% 15.73%
10 2013-05-26 25.5 @ Atlantas 4 1381 77.42% Tauras Taurage 0 957 5.48% 17.10%
11 2013-09-28 25.6 Suduva 5 1550 79.43% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1067 4.02% 16.55%
12 2013-06-29 27.4 @ Banga Gargzdai 5 1174 69.89% Tauras Taurage 0 898 11.86% 18.25%
13 2013-08-03 27.4 @ Atlantas 3 1391 75.07% FK Siauliai 0 1023 7.35% 17.58%
14 2013-05-11 27.9 @ Suduva 3 1309 72.81% Tauras Taurage 0 985 9.27% 17.92%
15 2013-08-04 28.0 @ Suduva 4 1368 69.78% Dainava Alytus 0 1095 11.96% 18.26%
16 2013-09-21 28.0 @ VMFD Zalgiris 2 1647 83.38% FK Siauliai 0 1006 1.74% 14.89%
17 2013-06-23 28.3 Ekranas 3 1478 74.46% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1122 7.85% 17.68%
18 2013-06-28 28.4 @ Suduva 3 1346 71.36% FK Siauliai 0 1047 10.55% 18.10%
19 2013-09-18 29.2 Suduva 5 1542 80.73% @ FK Siauliai 1 1014 3.17% 16.10%
20 2013-08-26 29.5 Dainava Alytus 4 1018 63.76% @ Tauras Taurage 0 822 17.55% 18.69%
21 2013-04-05 29.8 VMFD Zalgiris 3 1418 68.83% @ Dainava Alytus 0 1158 12.83% 18.35%
22 2013-08-20 30.1 Suduva 3 1528 72.87% @ Banga Gargzdai 0 1204 9.21% 17.91%
23 2013-11-09 30.2 Ekranas 1 1403 79.96% @ Tauras Taurage 0 903 3.66% 16.38%
24 2013-08-25 30.6 @ VMFD Zalgiris 5 1718 80.90% Banga Gargzdai 0 1184 3.06% 16.04%
25 2013-09-28 30.6 Atlantas 1 1503 79.91% @ FK Siauliai 0 1004 3.69% 16.39%