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1953-54 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Grevenmacher

8.83 points above expected

24 points · 15.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Spora Luxembourg

5.47 points below expected

16 points · 21.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 14 5 3 33 51 27 +24 27.44 +5.56
2 Fola Esch 22 10 8 4 28 59 34 +25 23.44 +4.56
3 Progres Niedercorn 22 8 8 6 24 35 31 +4 23.92 +0.08
4 Grevenmacher 22 9 6 7 24 38 43 -5 15.17 +8.83
5 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 22 10 2 10 22 41 44 -3 23.48 -1.48
6 Stade Dudelange 22 5 11 6 21 26 25 +1 23.97 -2.97
7 FC Schifflange 95 22 9 2 11 20 43 41 +2 24.08 -4.08
8 SC Tetange 22 7 6 9 20 34 37 -3 19.71 +0.29
9 Differdange 03 22 5 9 8 19 34 29 +5 22.96 -3.96
10 Red Star Merl 22 7 5 10 19 46 53 -7 20.58 -1.58
11 US Dudelange 22 4 10 8 18 31 45 -14 17.78 +0.22
12 Spora Luxembourg 22 5 6 11 16 37 66 -29 21.47 -5.47

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Grevenmacher 24 15.17 +8.83
2 Jeunesse Esch 33 27.44 +5.56
3 Fola Esch 28 23.44 +4.56
4 SC Tetange 20 19.71 +0.29
5 US Dudelange 18 17.78 +0.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spora Luxembourg 16 21.47 -5.47
2 FC Schifflange 95 20 24.08 -4.08
3 Differdange 03 19 22.96 -3.96
4 Stade Dudelange 21 23.97 -2.97
5 Red Star Merl 19 20.58 -1.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 SC Tetange 4 Feb 7 – Mar 28 1 in 71
2 FC Schifflange 95 3 Jan 17 – Jan 31 1 in 60
3 Grevenmacher 2 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 39
4 US Dudelange 2 Feb 7 – Feb 21 1 in 23
5 Jeunesse Esch 4 Oct 18 – Nov 22 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FC Schifflange 95 4 Nov 8 – Jan 10 1 in 211
2 Differdange 03 3 Oct 11 – Oct 25 1 in 44
3 Red Star Merl 3 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 39
4 SC Tetange 3 Aug 23 – Sep 6 1 in 21
5 Spora Luxembourg 4 Feb 21 – Apr 4 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grevenmacher 7 Sep 13 – Nov 8 1 in 221
2 Jeunesse Esch 11 Aug 23 – Nov 22 1 in 27
3 US Dudelange 4 Oct 18 – Nov 15 1 in 16
4 Fola Esch 8 Sep 27 – Jan 3 1 in 16
5 Progres Niedercorn 7 Jan 24 – Apr 4 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 13 Nov 8 – Apr 4 1 in 126
2 Differdange 03 7 Oct 4 – Jan 3 1 in 47
3 SC Tetange 11 Aug 23 – Nov 22 1 in 37
4 Stade Dudelange 5 Feb 21 – Apr 25 1 in 12
5 Fola Esch 5 Oct 4 – Nov 8 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1011 33 +8 6 6.4 -0.4
Fola Esch 978 28 +7 6 5.4 +0.6
Progres Niedercorn 934 24 +2 6 5.5 +0.5
Grevenmacher 798 24 -9 5 3.8 +1.2
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 882 22 -11 5 5.4 -0.4
Stade Dudelange 916 21 -9 4 5.5 -1.5
SC Tetange 894 20 +32 7 5.4 +1.6
FC Schifflange 95 920 20 -10 3 5.2 -2.2
Differdange 03 930 19 +32 6 4.9 +1.1
Red Star Merl 871 19 +2 5 5.1 -0.1
US Dudelange 807 18 +3 5 4.0 +1.0
Spora Luxembourg 803 16 -45 2 3.4 -1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team D0 FS9 FE GRE JE PN RFUL RSM ST SL SD UD
Differdange 03 —
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.51
1-0-1
3.53
0-1-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.40
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
2.96
0-1-1
3.13
0-2-0
2.60
1-1-0
2.53
0-2-0
3.41
FC Schifflange 95
1-0-1
2.97
—
0-0-2
2.67
1-0-1
3.85
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.29
1-0-1
3.29
1-0-1
3.23
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.59
Fola Esch
0-1-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.71
—
1-1-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.53
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.08
0-2-0
2.61
1-1-0
3.63
Grevenmacher
1-0-1
1.87
1-0-1
1.57
0-1-1
1.67
—
1-0-1
1.36
0-1-1
1.69
1-0-1
1.88
2-0-0
2.12
1-1-0
2.06
1-0-1
1.90
0-2-0
1.78
1-1-0
2.32
Jeunesse Esch
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
4.11
—
2-0-0
3.08
2-0-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.54
1-1-0
3.48
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.76
Progres Niedercorn
0-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.73
0-0-2
2.31
—
0-0-2
2.80
1-1-0
3.16
1-1-0
3.14
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
3.37
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2-0-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.54
0-0-2
2.00
2-0-0
2.58
—
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-2
2.65
1-1-0
3.31
Red Star Merl
2-0-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.11
0-0-2
2.54
0-0-2
3.28
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.24
—
1-1-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
3.05
SC Tetange
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
3.33
1-0-1
1.86
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.65
—
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.09
0-1-1
2.98
Spora Luxembourg
0-2-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
3.51
0-1-1
1.91
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.59
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.79
—
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
3.28
Stade Dudelange
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.57
0-2-0
2.77
0-2-0
3.64
0-1-1
2.17
0-1-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.73
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.22
—
0-2-0
3.56
US Dudelange
0-2-0
1.99
1-0-1
1.82
0-1-1
1.78
0-1-1
3.07
0-0-2
1.66
0-1-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.40
1-1-0
2.13
0-2-0
1.85
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.39 +3.2
Allowed 0.33 -2.3
Differential 0.73 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.92%4.17%1.52%1.14%1.14%17.42%
14.92%13.64%4.92%5.30%1.89%1.52%32.20%
24.17%4.92%9.09%4.17%0.76%2.27%25.38%
31.52%5.30%4.17%2.27%0.76%0.38%14.39%
41.14%1.89%0.76%0.76%—0.38%4.92%
5+1.14%1.52%2.27%0.38%0.38%—5.68%
Total17.42%32.20%25.38%14.39%4.92%5.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.80 +0.00
SD 1.52 1.52 2.15
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 9 9 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
1—27.27%————27.27%
213.64%—9.09%13.64%——36.36%
34.55%———4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.32 +0.23
SD 1.37 1.17 1.82
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
19.09%—18.18%9.09%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
3—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total18.18%22.73%27.27%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.86 +0.09
SD 1.46 1.36 2.29
CV 0.75 0.73 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%———13.64%
1—13.64%—4.55%9.09%—27.27%
24.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%4.55%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 1.55 +1.14
SD 2.44 1.30 2.75
CV 0.91 0.84 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%——4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
2—13.64%13.64%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
3——13.64%———13.64%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%27.27%36.36%13.64%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.95 -0.23
SD 1.20 1.59 2.02
CV 0.70 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
19.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
29.09%13.64%9.09%———31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
Total27.27%40.91%18.18%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.23 +1.09
SD 1.64 1.11 1.57
CV 0.71 0.90 —
Max 7 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
19.09%18.18%4.55%9.09%——40.91%
2—9.09%13.64%———22.73%
39.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%36.36%31.82%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.41 +0.18
SD 1.10 0.96 1.53
CV 0.69 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
113.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
2—9.09%—9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
3—13.64%————13.64%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%36.36%9.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.00 -0.14
SD 1.52 2.02 2.47
CV 0.82 1.01 —
Max 7 9 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%——4.55%13.64%
1—4.55%13.64%——4.55%22.73%
2——9.09%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
3—9.09%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
44.55%————4.55%9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%13.64%45.45%13.64%—18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 2.41 -0.32
SD 1.38 1.59 2.19
CV 0.66 0.66 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
29.09%—9.09%4.55%——22.73%
3—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%22.73%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.68 -0.14
SD 1.37 1.25 1.88
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%13.64%—13.64%4.55%9.09%45.45%
24.55%—9.09%——9.09%22.73%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%18.18%18.18%22.73%9.09%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 3.00 -1.32
SD 1.46 2.12 2.88
CV 0.87 0.71 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
1—31.82%————31.82%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%59.09%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.14 +0.05
SD 1.22 0.83 1.36
CV 1.03 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
1—18.18%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
2—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
3——9.09%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%36.36%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.05 -0.64
SD 1.37 1.62 1.79
CV 0.97 0.79 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1011 33 27.44 +5.56 99.0% 15 23 25 28 30 32 35
Fola Esch 978 28 23.44 +4.56 94.0% 15 17 21 23 26 30 34
Progres Niedercorn 934 24 23.92 +0.08 53.0% 14 17 21 24 26 29 34
Differdange 03 930 19 22.96 -3.96 18.0% 14 17 20 23 26 28 31
FC Schifflange 95 920 20 24.08 -4.08 14.0% 16 19 21 24 27 29 33
Stade Dudelange 916 21 23.97 -2.97 31.0% 14 17 21 24 27 31 38
SC Tetange 894 20 19.71 +0.29 58.0% 9 13 17 20 22 26 28
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 882 22 23.48 -1.48 40.0% 15 17 21 24 26 30 32
Red Star Merl 871 19 20.58 -1.58 41.0% 13 15 18 20 23 26 29
US Dudelange 807 18 17.78 +0.22 59.0% 7 12 15 18 20 24 27
Spora Luxembourg 803 16 21.47 -5.47 7.0% 13 16 19 22 24 27 30
Grevenmacher 798 24 15.17 +8.83 100.0% 6 9 12 15 18 21 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.39%
Clear Edge
42.42%29.55%28.03%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.36 Elo pts.
192 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.45 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Comfortable
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.97 * Some Luck: 2.97 to 4.45 * Lucky: 4.45 to 5.94 * Wild Swing: 5.94 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.86 * Close: 1.86 to 2.79 * Off: 2.79 to 3.71 * Way Off: 3.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.14 points
Some Luck
03.719
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.50
Close
02.325
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Grevenmacher
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.00%
Spora Luxembourg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 67.82
1.20
Coin-Flip Parity
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Even
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Rare
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.16
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.24
Overconfident
0.01403341.001.98597
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.081
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch40.00%24.00%13.00%8.00%8.00%5.00%————2.00%—
Fola Esch9.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%9.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%—
Progres Niedercorn11.00%15.00%9.00%15.00%9.00%11.00%7.00%7.00%4.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%
Grevenmacher—————2.00%4.00%3.00%13.00%12.00%16.00%50.00%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg8.00%6.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%14.00%7.00%10.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%
Stade Dudelange13.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%13.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%
FC Schifflange 959.00%15.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%—
SC Tetange1.00%3.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%12.00%17.00%12.00%15.00%12.00%
Differdange 035.00%8.00%17.00%10.00%6.00%17.00%8.00%7.00%8.00%5.00%9.00%—
Red Star Merl1.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%9.00%9.00%18.00%7.00%11.00%16.00%14.00%4.00%
US Dudelange—1.00%4.00%—3.00%2.00%6.00%9.00%13.00%13.00%23.00%26.00%
Spora Luxembourg3.00%3.00%3.00%11.00%4.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%11.00%16.00%8.00%3.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FC Schifflange 95 99.00% 1.00%
Jeunesse Esch 98.00% 2.00%
Fola Esch 96.00% 4.00%
Progres Niedercorn 96.00% 4.00%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 96.00% 4.00%
Stade Dudelange 95.00% 5.00%
Differdange 03 91.00% 9.00%
Spora Luxembourg 89.00% 11.00%
Red Star Merl 82.00% 18.00%
SC Tetange 73.00% 27.00%
US Dudelange 51.00% 49.00%
Grevenmacher 34.00% 66.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1953-08-23 Stade Dudelange D 2-253.5 948 935 46.60% 30.93% 22.47%+0.33 -0.7 1
1953-08-23 @ FC Schifflange 95 D 2-253.5 935 948 22.47% 30.93% 46.60%-0.33 +0.7 1
1953-08-23 SC Tetange W 2-034.1 940 898 49.94% 30.50% 19.56%+0.48 +8.7 2
1953-08-23 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-234.1 898 940 19.56% 30.50% 49.94%-0.48 -8.7 0
1953-08-23 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-347.2 927 902 47.92% 30.78% 21.30%+0.39 -14.7 0
1953-08-23 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-147.2 902 927 21.30% 30.78% 47.92%-0.39 +14.7 2
1953-08-23 Fola Esch L 4-558.9 884 882 45.23% 31.05% 23.71%+0.27 -7.4 0
1953-08-23 @ Red Star Merl W 5-458.9 882 884 23.71% 31.05% 45.23%-0.27 +7.4 2
1953-08-23 Differdange 03 D 1-149.0 932 907 47.90% 30.78% 21.32%+0.39 -1.0 1
1953-08-23 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-149.0 907 932 21.32% 30.78% 47.90%-0.39 +1.0 1
1953-08-23 Grevenmacher D 0-046.1 835 754 54.05% 29.70% 16.25%+0.69 -1.7 1
1953-08-23 @ US Dudelange D 0-046.1 754 835 16.25% 29.70% 54.05%-0.69 +1.7 1
1953-08-30 FC Schifflange 95 L 0-240.4 908 948 39.98% 31.32% 28.70%+0.06 -14.7 1
1953-08-30 @ Differdange 03 W 2-040.4 948 908 28.70% 31.32% 39.98%-0.06 +14.7 3
1953-08-30 Progres Niedercorn L 1-242.6 755 912 24.68% 30.36% 44.96%-0.56 -5.1 1
1953-08-30 @ Grevenmacher W 2-142.6 912 755 44.96% 30.36% 24.68%+0.56 +5.1 2
1953-08-30 US Dudelange W 3-029.6 949 833 57.38% 28.81% 13.81%+0.87 +9.3 4
1953-08-30 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-329.6 833 949 13.81% 28.81% 57.38%-0.87 -9.3 1
1953-08-30 Spora Luxembourg W 7-136.3 917 931 43.32% 31.19% 25.49%+0.19 +24.4 4
1953-08-30 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-736.3 931 917 25.49% 31.19% 43.32%-0.19 -24.4 1
1953-08-30 Fola Esch L 0-438.7 889 889 44.96% 31.08% 23.96%+0.26 -30.5 0
1953-08-30 @ SC Tetange W 4-038.7 889 889 23.96% 31.08% 44.96%-0.26 +30.5 4
1953-08-30 Red Star Merl W 2-033.5 936 877 51.77% 30.18% 18.05%+0.57 +8.1 3
1953-08-30 @ Stade Dudelange L 0-233.5 877 936 18.05% 30.18% 51.77%-0.57 -8.1 0
1953-09-06 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-141.8 962 941 47.50% 30.83% 21.67%+0.37 +4.7 5
1953-09-06 @ FC Schifflange 95 L 1-241.8 941 962 21.67% 30.83% 47.50%-0.37 -4.7 4
1953-09-06 Stade Dudelange D 0-045.6 920 944 41.99% 31.26% 26.75%+0.14 -0.7 5
1953-09-06 @ Fola Esch D 0-045.6 944 920 26.75% 31.26% 41.99%-0.14 +0.6 4
1953-09-06 Jeunesse Esch L 1-247.4 917 958 39.78% 31.32% 28.90%+0.05 -7.3 2
1953-09-06 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-147.4 958 917 28.90% 31.32% 39.78%-0.05 +7.3 6
1953-09-06 Differdange 03 W 3-248.1 868 894 41.82% 31.26% 26.91%+0.13 +5.2 2
1953-09-06 @ Red Star Merl L 2-348.1 894 868 26.91% 31.26% 41.82%-0.13 -5.2 1
1953-09-06 Grevenmacher W 2-030.7 906 750 60.96% 27.57% 11.46%+1.08 +5.4 3
1953-09-06 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-230.7 750 906 11.46% 27.57% 60.96%-1.08 -5.4 1
1953-09-06 SC Tetange W 2-143.9 824 859 40.58% 31.31% 28.11%+0.08 +5.7 3
1953-09-06 @ US Dudelange L 1-243.9 859 824 28.11% 31.31% 40.58%-0.08 -5.7 0
1953-09-13 Fola Esch W 2-036.7 888 919 41.10% 31.29% 27.61%+0.10 +11.3 3
1953-09-13 @ Differdange 03 L 0-236.7 919 888 27.61% 31.29% 41.10%-0.10 -11.3 5
1953-09-13 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-150.6 745 967 18.38% 28.82% 52.79%-0.90 +9.1 3
1953-09-13 @ Grevenmacher L 1-250.6 967 745 52.79% 28.82% 18.38%+0.90 -9.1 5
1953-09-13 Spora Luxembourg D 1-149.2 965 912 51.20% 30.29% 18.52%+0.54 -1.3 7
1953-09-13 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-149.2 912 965 18.52% 30.29% 51.20%-0.54 +1.3 4
1953-09-13 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-246.5 874 937 36.77% 31.33% 31.90%-0.07 -6.9 2
1953-09-13 @ Red Star Merl W 2-146.5 937 874 31.90% 31.33% 36.77%+0.07 +6.9 6
1953-09-13 Stade Dudelange D 1-148.9 853 945 32.76% 31.20% 36.04%-0.22 +0.1 1
1953-09-13 @ SC Tetange D 1-148.9 945 853 36.04% 31.20% 32.76%+0.22 -0.1 5
1953-09-13 Progres Niedercorn D 2-253.4 830 910 34.32% 31.27% 34.41%-0.16 +0.0 4
1953-09-13 @ US Dudelange D 2-253.4 910 830 34.41% 31.27% 34.32%+0.16 +0.0 3
1953-09-27 Jeunesse Esch L 1-248.7 958 964 44.24% 31.13% 24.63%+0.23 -7.9 5
1953-09-27 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 2-148.7 964 958 24.63% 31.13% 44.24%-0.23 +7.9 9
1953-09-27 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 4-139.2 908 944 40.48% 31.31% 28.21%+0.08 +14.0 7
1953-09-27 @ Fola Esch L 1-439.2 944 908 28.21% 31.31% 40.48%-0.08 -14.0 6
1953-09-27 SC Tetange D 3-357.9 910 853 51.53% 30.23% 18.24%+0.56 -0.8 4
1953-09-27 @ Progres Niedercorn D 3-357.9 853 910 18.24% 30.23% 51.53%-0.56 +0.8 2
1953-09-27 Grevenmacher L 1-251.9 867 754 57.11% 28.89% 14.00%+0.85 -9.9 2
1953-09-27 @ Red Star Merl W 2-151.9 754 867 14.00% 28.89% 57.11%-0.85 +9.9 5
1953-09-27 Differdange 03 L 0-243.2 944 900 50.20% 30.46% 19.34%+0.50 -17.6 5
1953-09-27 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-043.2 900 944 19.34% 30.46% 50.20%-0.50 +17.6 5
1953-10-04 SC Tetange D 1-149.2 917 854 52.22% 30.09% 17.68%+0.59 -1.4 6
1953-10-04 @ Differdange 03 D 1-149.2 854 917 17.68% 30.09% 52.22%-0.59 +1.4 3
1953-10-04 Fola Esch D 2-253.7 764 922 24.52% 30.33% 45.14%-0.56 +0.6 6
1953-10-04 @ Grevenmacher D 2-253.7 922 764 45.14% 30.33% 24.52%+0.56 -0.6 8
1953-10-04 Red Star Merl W 5-132.8 972 857 57.32% 28.83% 13.85%+0.86 +10.2 11
1953-10-04 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-532.8 857 972 13.85% 28.83% 57.32%-0.86 -10.2 2
1953-10-04 Spora Luxembourg W 3-033.5 909 913 44.54% 31.11% 24.35%+0.24 +14.9 6
1953-10-04 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-333.5 913 909 24.35% 31.11% 44.54%-0.24 -14.9 4
1953-10-04 Stade Dudelange L 2-353.5 930 927 45.34% 31.05% 23.62%+0.28 -7.7 6
1953-10-04 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-253.5 927 930 23.62% 31.05% 45.34%-0.28 +7.7 7
1953-10-04 FC Schifflange 95 L 1-538.0 830 950 28.97% 30.92% 40.10%-0.37 -18.4 4
1953-10-04 @ US Dudelange W 5-138.0 950 830 40.10% 30.92% 28.97%+0.37 +18.4 7
1953-10-11 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 3-456.7 916 922 44.27% 31.13% 24.60%+0.23 -7.4 6
1953-10-11 @ Differdange 03 W 4-356.7 922 916 24.60% 31.13% 44.27%-0.23 +7.4 8
1953-10-11 Progres Niedercorn W 3-138.5 968 924 50.15% 30.46% 19.39%+0.49 +7.5 9
1953-10-11 @ FC Schifflange 95 L 1-338.5 924 968 19.39% 30.46% 50.15%-0.49 -7.5 6
1953-10-11 Jeunesse Esch D 2-253.4 921 982 37.08% 31.33% 31.59%-0.05 -0.1 9
1953-10-11 @ Fola Esch D 2-253.4 982 921 31.59% 31.33% 37.08%+0.05 +0.1 12
1953-10-11 US Dudelange W 4-031.1 847 811 49.19% 30.61% 20.20%+0.45 +16.9 4
1953-10-11 @ Red Star Merl L 0-431.1 811 847 20.20% 30.61% 49.19%-0.45 -16.9 4
1953-10-11 SC Tetange W 4-136.4 898 855 49.98% 30.49% 19.53%+0.49 +10.6 6
1953-10-11 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-436.4 855 898 19.53% 30.49% 49.98%-0.49 -10.6 3
1953-10-11 Grevenmacher D 1-150.1 935 764 62.15% 27.10% 10.75%+1.15 -2.2 8
1953-10-11 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-150.1 764 935 10.75% 27.10% 62.15%-1.15 +2.2 7
1953-10-18 Differdange 03 W 3-252.7 767 909 26.36% 30.62% 43.02%-0.48 +7.3 9
1953-10-18 @ Grevenmacher L 2-352.7 909 767 43.02% 30.62% 26.36%+0.48 -7.3 6
1953-10-18 Stade Dudelange W 1-036.8 982 932 50.79% 30.36% 18.85%+0.52 +4.5 14
1953-10-18 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-136.8 932 982 18.85% 30.36% 50.79%-0.52 -4.5 8
1953-10-18 Red Star Merl W 3-245.3 917 864 51.10% 30.30% 18.60%+0.54 +4.0 8
1953-10-18 @ Progres Niedercorn L 2-345.3 864 917 18.60% 30.30% 51.10%-0.54 -3.9 4
1953-10-18 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-343.0 845 929 33.74% 31.25% 35.01%-0.18 -11.2 3
1953-10-18 @ SC Tetange W 3-143.0 929 845 35.01% 31.25% 33.74%+0.18 +11.2 10
1953-10-18 FC Schifflange 95 W 4-246.8 909 976 36.19% 31.32% 32.49%-0.09 +9.8 8
1953-10-18 @ Spora Luxembourg L 2-446.8 976 909 32.49% 31.32% 36.19%+0.09 -9.8 9
1953-10-18 Fola Esch D 1-149.0 794 921 28.16% 30.84% 41.00%-0.40 +0.5 5
1953-10-18 @ US Dudelange D 1-149.0 921 794 41.00% 30.84% 28.16%+0.40 -0.5 10
1953-10-25 Jeunesse Esch L 0-141.5 901 987 33.61% 31.24% 35.15%-0.18 -6.8 6
1953-10-25 @ Differdange 03 W 1-041.5 987 901 35.15% 31.24% 33.61%+0.18 +6.9 16
1953-10-25 SC Tetange W 1-034.4 966 833 58.92% 28.32% 12.77%+0.96 +3.2 11
1953-10-25 @ FC Schifflange 95 L 0-134.4 833 966 12.77% 28.32% 58.92%-0.96 -3.2 3
1953-10-25 Progres Niedercorn D 1-149.0 921 921 45.03% 31.07% 23.90%+0.26 -0.8 11
1953-10-25 @ Fola Esch D 1-149.0 921 921 23.90% 31.07% 45.03%-0.26 +0.8 9
1953-10-25 Grevenmacher L 2-357.4 940 774 61.85% 27.22% 10.93%+1.13 -10.0 10
1953-10-25 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-257.4 774 940 10.93% 27.22% 61.85%-1.13 +10.0 11
1953-10-25 Red Star Merl W 6-237.1 918 860 51.71% 30.19% 18.10%+0.57 +10.9 10
1953-10-25 @ Spora Luxembourg L 2-637.1 860 918 18.10% 30.19% 51.71%-0.57 -10.9 4
1953-10-25 US Dudelange D 1-149.8 928 795 58.96% 28.30% 12.74%+0.96 -2.0 9
1953-10-25 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-149.8 795 928 12.74% 28.30% 58.96%-0.96 +2.0 6
1953-11-08 Red Star Merl L 2-550.8 969 849 57.81% 28.68% 13.52%+0.89 -21.2 11
1953-11-08 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 5-250.8 849 969 13.52% 28.68% 57.81%-0.89 +21.2 6
1953-11-08 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-140.4 994 930 52.20% 30.10% 17.70%+0.59 +4.0 18
1953-11-08 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.4 930 994 17.70% 30.10% 52.20%-0.59 -4.0 10
1953-11-08 Stade Dudelange W 3-033.5 921 926 44.46% 31.12% 24.43%+0.24 +15.0 11
1953-11-08 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-333.5 926 921 24.43% 31.12% 44.46%-0.24 -15.0 9
1953-11-08 Grevenmacher D 2-253.7 830 784 50.38% 30.43% 19.20%+0.50 -0.9 4
1953-11-08 @ SC Tetange D 2-253.7 784 830 19.20% 30.43% 50.38%-0.50 +0.9 12
1953-11-08 Fola Esch D 2-253.5 929 920 46.13% 30.97% 22.90%+0.31 -0.7 11
1953-11-08 @ Spora Luxembourg D 2-253.5 920 929 22.90% 30.97% 46.13%-0.31 +0.7 12
1953-11-08 Differdange 03 D 2-253.4 797 894 31.94% 31.16% 36.90%-0.25 +0.1 7
1953-11-08 @ US Dudelange D 2-253.4 894 797 36.90% 31.16% 31.94%+0.25 -0.1 7
1953-11-15 US Dudelange L 2-551.0 929 797 58.84% 28.34% 12.82%+0.95 -21.5 11
1953-11-15 @ Spora Luxembourg W 5-251.0 797 929 12.82% 28.34% 58.84%-0.95 +21.5 9
1953-11-22 Progres Niedercorn D 1-148.9 894 936 39.62% 31.33% 29.06%+0.04 -0.4 8
1953-11-22 @ Differdange 03 D 1-148.9 936 894 29.06% 31.33% 39.62%-0.04 +0.4 12
1953-11-22 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-143.6 921 948 41.56% 31.27% 27.17%+0.12 +5.6 14
1953-11-22 @ Fola Esch L 1-243.6 948 921 27.17% 31.27% 41.56%-0.12 -5.6 11
1953-11-22 Jeunesse Esch L 2-345.1 785 998 19.18% 29.08% 51.74%-0.85 -4.0 12
1953-11-22 @ Grevenmacher W 3-245.1 998 785 51.74% 29.08% 19.18%+0.85 +4.0 20
1953-11-22 US Dudelange W 2-139.1 926 818 56.66% 29.02% 14.32%+0.83 +3.3 12
1953-11-22 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-239.1 818 926 14.32% 29.02% 56.66%-0.83 -3.3 9
1953-11-22 SC Tetange W 3-138.6 870 829 49.75% 30.53% 19.72%+0.48 +7.6 8
1953-11-22 @ Red Star Merl L 1-338.6 829 870 19.72% 30.53% 49.75%-0.48 -7.6 4
1953-11-22 Spora Luxembourg W 4-137.7 911 907 45.46% 31.03% 23.50%+0.28 +12.3 11
1953-11-22 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-437.7 907 911 23.50% 31.03% 45.46%-0.28 -12.3 11
1954-01-03 Spora Luxembourg D 2-253.5 894 895 44.89% 31.08% 24.03%+0.26 -0.6 9
1954-01-03 @ Differdange 03 D 2-253.5 895 894 24.03% 31.08% 44.89%-0.26 +0.6 12
1954-01-03 Red Star Merl W 5-030.8 926 878 50.64% 30.38% 18.98%+0.52 +19.8 16
1954-01-03 @ Fola Esch L 0-530.8 878 926 18.98% 30.38% 50.64%-0.52 -19.8 8
1954-01-03 US Dudelange W 1-039.8 781 815 40.67% 31.30% 28.03%+0.08 +6.0 14
1954-01-03 @ Grevenmacher L 0-139.8 815 781 28.03% 31.30% 40.67%-0.08 -6.0 9
1954-01-03 Progres Niedercorn W 1-038.8 930 937 44.14% 31.14% 24.72%+0.23 +5.5 14
1954-01-03 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-138.8 937 930 24.72% 31.14% 44.14%-0.23 -5.5 12
1954-01-03 Jeunesse Esch W 1-045.4 822 1002 22.25% 29.89% 47.85%-0.68 +8.9 6
1954-01-03 @ SC Tetange L 0-145.4 1002 822 47.85% 29.89% 22.25%+0.68 -8.9 20
1954-01-03 FC Schifflange 95 W 3-140.8 923 942 42.59% 31.23% 26.18%+0.16 +9.4 13
1954-01-03 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-340.8 942 923 26.18% 31.23% 42.59%-0.16 -9.4 11
1954-01-10 Differdange 03 L 0-340.9 933 893 49.65% 30.54% 19.81%+0.47 -25.4 11
1954-01-10 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 3-040.9 893 933 19.81% 30.54% 49.65%-0.47 +25.4 11
1954-01-10 SC Tetange L 1-349.4 946 831 57.35% 28.82% 13.83%+0.87 -17.2 16
1954-01-10 @ Fola Esch W 3-149.4 831 946 13.83% 28.82% 57.35%-0.87 +17.2 8
1954-01-10 Grevenmacher D 2-254.4 931 787 59.95% 27.95% 12.10%+1.02 -1.5 13
1954-01-10 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-254.4 787 931 12.10% 27.95% 59.95%-1.02 +1.5 15
1954-01-10 Stade Dudelange W 3-250.1 858 933 35.12% 31.30% 33.58%-0.13 +6.1 10
1954-01-10 @ Red Star Merl L 2-350.1 933 858 33.58% 31.30% 35.12%+0.13 -6.1 13
1954-01-10 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-344.9 895 935 39.92% 31.32% 28.76%+0.06 -12.7 12
1954-01-10 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-144.9 935 895 28.76% 31.32% 39.92%-0.06 +12.7 16
1954-01-10 Jeunesse Esch L 3-739.5 809 993 21.87% 29.81% 48.33%-0.70 -11.4 9
1954-01-10 @ US Dudelange W 7-339.5 993 809 48.33% 29.81% 21.87%+0.70 +11.4 22
1954-01-17 Red Star Merl L 2-355.1 919 864 51.30% 30.27% 18.43%+0.55 -8.5 11
1954-01-17 @ Differdange 03 W 3-255.1 864 919 18.43% 30.27% 51.30%-0.55 +8.5 12
1954-01-17 Spora Luxembourg W 4-036.1 788 883 32.40% 31.18% 36.41%-0.23 +25.9 17
1954-01-17 @ Grevenmacher L 0-436.1 883 788 36.41% 31.18% 32.40%+0.23 -25.9 12
1954-01-17 Progres Niedercorn W 2-033.0 1004 930 53.35% 29.86% 16.79%+0.65 +7.6 24
1954-01-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-233.0 930 1004 16.79% 29.86% 53.35%-0.65 -7.6 13
1954-01-17 FC Schifflange 95 L 0-146.1 948 908 49.71% 30.53% 19.76%+0.47 -9.3 16
1954-01-17 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 1-046.1 908 948 19.76% 30.53% 49.71%-0.47 +9.3 13
1954-01-17 US Dudelange D 2-253.7 848 798 50.81% 30.36% 18.84%+0.53 -1.0 9
1954-01-17 @ SC Tetange D 2-253.7 798 848 18.84% 30.36% 50.81%-0.53 +1.0 10
1954-01-17 Fola Esch D 1-148.9 926 929 44.70% 31.10% 24.20%+0.25 -0.8 14
1954-01-17 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-148.9 929 926 24.20% 31.10% 44.70%-0.25 +0.8 17
1954-01-24 Grevenmacher W 3-136.7 917 814 56.14% 29.17% 14.69%+0.80 +5.9 15
1954-01-24 @ FC Schifflange 95 L 1-336.7 814 917 14.69% 29.17% 56.14%-0.80 -5.9 17
1954-01-24 Differdange 03 D 0-045.7 930 910 47.34% 30.85% 21.81%+0.36 -1.1 18
1954-01-24 @ Fola Esch D 0-045.7 910 930 21.81% 30.85% 47.34%-0.36 +1.1 12
1954-01-24 US Dudelange W 1-034.6 922 799 58.10% 28.59% 13.32%+0.91 +3.3 15
1954-01-24 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-134.6 799 922 13.32% 28.59% 58.10%-0.91 -3.3 10
1954-01-24 Red Star Merl D 0-046.0 939 872 52.51% 30.04% 17.45%+0.61 -1.6 17
1954-01-24 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 0-046.0 872 939 17.45% 30.04% 52.51%-0.61 +1.6 13
1954-01-24 Jeunesse Esch L 1-340.1 857 1012 24.90% 30.40% 44.71%-0.55 -8.9 12
1954-01-24 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-140.1 1012 857 44.71% 30.40% 24.90%+0.55 +9.0 26
1954-01-24 SC Tetange L 0-147.1 926 847 53.80% 29.76% 16.44%+0.67 -9.9 14
1954-01-24 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-047.1 847 926 16.44% 29.76% 53.80%-0.67 +9.9 11
1954-01-31 Stade Dudelange D 1-148.9 911 916 44.46% 31.11% 24.42%+0.24 -0.8 13
1954-01-31 @ Differdange 03 D 1-148.9 916 911 24.42% 31.11% 44.46%-0.24 +0.8 15
1954-01-31 Red Star Merl W 2-145.1 809 874 36.43% 31.33% 32.25%-0.08 +6.3 19
1954-01-31 @ Grevenmacher L 1-245.1 874 809 32.25% 31.33% 36.43%+0.08 -6.3 13
1954-01-31 FC Schifflange 95 L 1-349.0 1021 923 55.69% 29.29% 15.02%+0.77 -16.7 26
1954-01-31 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-149.0 923 1021 15.02% 29.29% 55.69%-0.77 +16.7 17
1954-01-31 Fola Esch L 2-943.3 937 929 46.03% 30.98% 22.98%+0.31 -35.6 17
1954-01-31 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 9-243.3 929 937 22.98% 30.98% 46.03%-0.31 +35.6 20
1954-01-31 Progres Niedercorn L 0-142.2 857 925 35.99% 31.32% 32.69%-0.10 -7.2 11
1954-01-31 @ SC Tetange W 1-042.2 925 857 32.69% 31.32% 35.99%+0.10 +7.2 17
1954-01-31 Spora Luxembourg D 3-357.5 795 848 38.18% 31.34% 30.48%-0.01 -0.2 11
1954-01-31 @ US Dudelange D 3-357.5 848 795 30.48% 31.34% 38.18%+0.01 +0.2 13
1954-02-07 US Dudelange L 2-357.0 940 795 59.97% 27.95% 12.09%+1.02 -9.8 17
1954-02-07 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 3-257.0 795 940 12.09% 27.95% 59.97%-1.02 +9.8 13
1954-02-07 Grevenmacher W 6-234.5 964 815 60.39% 27.79% 11.82%+1.04 +7.4 22
1954-02-07 @ Fola Esch L 2-634.5 815 964 11.82% 27.79% 60.39%-1.04 -7.4 19
1954-02-07 Jeunesse Esch D 2-253.6 868 1004 27.03% 30.71% 42.26%-0.45 +0.4 14
1954-02-07 @ Red Star Merl D 2-253.6 1004 868 42.26% 30.71% 27.03%+0.45 -0.4 27
1954-02-07 Differdange 03 W 2-037.9 850 911 37.06% 31.33% 31.61%-0.06 +12.4 13
1954-02-07 @ SC Tetange L 0-237.9 911 850 31.61% 31.33% 37.06%+0.06 -12.4 13
1954-02-07 Progres Niedercorn D 1-148.9 848 933 33.77% 31.25% 34.98%-0.18 +0.0 14
1954-02-07 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-148.9 933 848 34.98% 31.25% 33.77%+0.18 -0.1 18
1954-02-07 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-139.5 916 901 46.81% 30.90% 22.28%+0.34 +8.3 17
1954-02-07 @ Stade Dudelange L 1-339.5 901 916 22.28% 30.90% 46.81%-0.34 -8.3 17
1954-02-21 Stade Dudelange D 1-149.0 807 925 29.36% 30.96% 39.68%-0.35 +0.4 20
1954-02-21 @ Grevenmacher D 1-149.0 925 807 39.68% 30.96% 29.36%+0.35 -0.4 18
1954-02-21 Fola Esch W 4-136.8 1004 972 48.78% 30.67% 20.56%+0.43 +11.0 29
1954-02-21 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-436.8 972 1004 20.56% 30.67% 48.78%-0.43 -11.1 22
1954-02-21 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-142.5 933 930 45.34% 31.05% 23.62%+0.28 +5.0 20
1954-02-21 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-242.5 930 933 23.62% 31.05% 45.34%-0.28 -5.0 17
1954-02-21 Differdange 03 W 1-038.7 893 898 44.38% 31.12% 24.50%+0.24 +5.5 19
1954-02-21 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-138.7 898 893 24.50% 31.12% 44.38%-0.24 -5.5 13
1954-02-21 Spora Luxembourg W 6-238.7 862 848 46.67% 30.92% 22.41%+0.34 +13.0 15
1954-02-21 @ SC Tetange L 2-638.7 848 862 22.41% 30.92% 46.67%-0.34 -12.9 14
1954-02-21 Red Star Merl W 3-249.6 805 868 36.73% 31.33% 31.94%-0.07 +5.9 15
1954-02-21 @ US Dudelange L 2-349.6 868 805 31.94% 31.33% 36.73%+0.07 -5.9 14
1954-02-28 Spora Luxembourg W 6-030.1 925 835 54.87% 29.50% 15.62%+0.73 +19.9 19
1954-02-28 @ FC Schifflange 95 L 0-630.1 835 925 15.62% 29.50% 54.87%-0.73 -19.9 14
1954-02-28 US Dudelange W 2-030.9 961 811 60.43% 27.78% 11.80%+1.05 +5.5 24
1954-02-28 @ Fola Esch L 0-230.9 811 961 11.80% 27.78% 60.43%-1.05 -5.5 15
1954-02-28 SC Tetange L 1-347.1 899 875 47.82% 30.79% 21.39%+0.39 -14.7 19
1954-02-28 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-147.1 875 899 21.39% 30.79% 47.82%-0.39 +14.7 17
1954-02-28 Progres Niedercorn D 2-253.4 862 938 35.05% 31.29% 33.66%-0.13 -0.0 15
1954-02-28 @ Red Star Merl D 2-253.4 938 862 33.66% 31.29% 35.05%+0.13 +0.0 21
1954-02-28 Jeunesse Esch D 0-045.6 924 1015 32.96% 31.21% 35.83%-0.21 +0.1 19
1954-02-28 @ Stade Dudelange D 0-045.6 1015 924 35.83% 31.21% 32.96%+0.21 -0.1 30
1954-03-21 Grevenmacher W 6-030.3 893 808 54.41% 29.62% 15.97%+0.71 +20.3 15
1954-03-21 @ Differdange 03 L 0-630.3 808 893 15.97% 29.62% 54.41%-0.71 -20.3 20
1954-03-28 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-141.0 787 884 32.11% 31.17% 36.72%-0.24 -6.6 20
1954-03-28 @ Grevenmacher W 1-041.0 884 787 36.72% 31.17% 32.11%+0.24 +6.6 21
1954-03-28 Differdange 03 D 1-149.5 1015 913 56.04% 29.20% 14.76%+0.79 -1.7 31
1954-03-28 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-149.5 913 1015 14.76% 29.20% 56.04%-0.79 +1.7 16
1954-03-28 Fola Esch W 4-139.0 938 966 41.40% 31.28% 27.32%+0.11 +13.7 23
1954-03-28 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-439.0 966 938 27.32% 31.28% 41.40%-0.11 -13.7 24
1954-03-28 Spora Luxembourg W 3-138.4 862 815 50.44% 30.42% 19.14%+0.51 +7.4 17
1954-03-28 @ Red Star Merl L 1-338.4 815 862 19.14% 30.42% 50.44%-0.51 -7.4 14
1954-03-28 FC Schifflange 95 W 2-037.7 890 945 37.86% 31.34% 30.81%-0.02 +12.2 19
1954-03-28 @ SC Tetange L 0-237.7 945 890 30.81% 31.34% 37.86%+0.02 -12.2 19
1954-03-28 Stade Dudelange D 0-045.7 805 925 29.12% 30.94% 39.94%-0.36 +0.5 16
1954-03-28 @ US Dudelange D 0-045.7 925 805 39.94% 30.94% 29.12%+0.36 -0.4 20
1954-04-04 US Dudelange D 1-149.6 915 806 56.75% 29.00% 14.25%+0.83 -1.8 17
1954-04-04 @ Differdange 03 D 1-149.6 806 915 14.25% 29.00% 56.75%-0.83 +1.8 17
1954-04-04 Spora Luxembourg W 7-131.3 952 808 59.97% 27.95% 12.09%+1.02 +12.9 26
1954-04-04 @ Fola Esch L 1-731.3 808 952 12.09% 27.95% 59.97%-1.02 -12.9 14
1954-04-04 SC Tetange W 3-252.0 781 902 28.91% 30.92% 40.17%-0.37 +6.9 22
1954-04-04 @ Grevenmacher L 2-352.0 902 781 40.17% 30.92% 28.91%+0.37 -6.9 19
1954-04-04 Jeunesse Esch L 2-445.6 891 1013 28.75% 30.90% 40.35%-0.38 -8.9 21
1954-04-04 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 4-245.6 1013 891 40.35% 30.90% 28.75%+0.38 +8.9 33
1954-04-04 FC Schifflange 95 D 3-357.5 870 933 36.77% 31.33% 31.90%-0.07 -0.1 18
1954-04-04 @ Red Star Merl D 3-357.5 933 870 31.90% 31.33% 36.77%+0.07 +0.1 20
1954-04-04 Progres Niedercorn D 1-148.9 924 951 41.57% 31.27% 27.15%+0.12 -0.5 21
1954-04-04 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-148.9 951 924 27.15% 31.27% 41.57%-0.12 +0.5 24
1954-04-25 Fola Esch L 1-345.2 933 965 40.86% 31.30% 27.85%+0.09 -12.9 20
1954-04-25 @ FC Schifflange 95 W 3-145.2 965 933 27.85% 31.30% 40.86%-0.09 +12.9 28
1954-04-25 Grevenmacher L 3-461.7 1022 788 67.17% 24.73% 8.10%+1.48 -10.4 33
1954-04-25 @ Jeunesse Esch W 4-361.7 788 1022 8.10% 24.73% 67.17%-1.48 +10.4 24
1954-04-25 Differdange 03 L 0-243.1 952 913 49.56% 30.56% 19.89%+0.47 -17.5 24
1954-04-25 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-043.1 913 952 19.89% 30.56% 49.56%-0.47 +17.4 19
1954-04-25 Red Star Merl D 1-149.0 895 869 48.02% 30.77% 21.21%+0.40 -1.1 20
1954-04-25 @ SC Tetange D 1-149.0 869 895 21.21% 30.77% 48.02%-0.40 +1.1 19
1954-04-25 Stade Dudelange W 1-043.7 795 924 27.97% 30.82% 41.21%-0.41 +7.9 16
1954-04-25 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-143.7 924 795 41.21% 30.82% 27.97%+0.41 -7.9 21
1954-04-25 Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 1-148.9 807 882 35.22% 31.30% 33.48%-0.12 -0.1 18
1954-04-25 @ US Dudelange D 1-148.9 882 807 33.48% 31.30% 35.22%+0.12 +0.1 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1954-04-25 8.10% Grevenmacher 788 4 @ Jeunesse Esch 1022 3
2 1953-10-25 10.93% Grevenmacher 774 3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 940 2
3 1954-02-07 12.09% US Dudelange 795 3 @ FC Schifflange 95 940 2
4 1953-11-15 12.82% US Dudelange 797 5 @ Spora Luxembourg 929 2
5 1953-11-08 13.52% Red Star Merl 849 5 @ FC Schifflange 95 969 2
6 1954-01-10 13.83% SC Tetange 831 3 @ Fola Esch 946 1
7 1953-09-27 14.00% Grevenmacher 754 2 @ Red Star Merl 867 1
8 1954-01-31 15.02% FC Schifflange 95 923 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 1021 1
9 1954-01-24 16.44% SC Tetange 847 1 @ Stade Dudelange 926 0
10 1953-09-13 18.38% @ Grevenmacher 745 2 FC Schifflange 95 967 1
11 1954-01-17 18.43% Red Star Merl 864 3 @ Differdange 03 919 2
12 1953-09-27 19.34% Differdange 03 900 2 @ Stade Dudelange 944 0
13 1954-01-17 19.76% FC Schifflange 95 908 1 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 948 0
14 1954-01-10 19.81% Differdange 03 893 3 @ FC Schifflange 95 933 0
15 1954-04-25 19.89% Differdange 03 913 2 @ Progres Niedercorn 952 0
16 1953-08-23 21.30% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 902 3 @ Progres Niedercorn 927 1
17 1954-02-28 21.39% SC Tetange 875 3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 899 1
18 1954-01-03 22.25% @ SC Tetange 822 1 Jeunesse Esch 1002 0
19 1954-01-31 22.98% Fola Esch 929 9 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 937 2
20 1953-10-04 23.62% Stade Dudelange 927 3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 930 2
21 1953-08-23 23.71% Fola Esch 882 5 @ Red Star Merl 884 4
22 1953-08-30 23.96% Fola Esch 889 4 @ SC Tetange 889 0
23 1953-10-11 24.60% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 922 4 @ Differdange 03 916 3
24 1953-09-27 24.63% Jeunesse Esch 964 2 @ FC Schifflange 95 958 1
25 1953-10-18 26.36% @ Grevenmacher 767 3 Differdange 03 909 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-01-31 35.64 Fola Esch 9 929 22.98% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2 937 46.03% 30.98%
2 1953-08-30 30.51 Fola Esch 4 889 23.96% @ SC Tetange 0 889 44.96% 31.08%
3 1954-01-17 25.90 @ Grevenmacher 4 788 32.40% Spora Luxembourg 0 883 36.41% 31.18%
4 1954-01-10 25.38 Differdange 03 3 893 19.81% @ FC Schifflange 95 0 933 49.65% 30.54%
5 1953-08-30 24.37 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 7 917 43.32% Spora Luxembourg 1 931 25.49% 31.19%
6 1953-11-15 21.48 US Dudelange 5 797 12.82% @ Spora Luxembourg 2 929 58.84% 28.34%
7 1953-11-08 21.16 Red Star Merl 5 849 13.52% @ FC Schifflange 95 2 969 57.81% 28.68%
8 1954-03-21 20.32 @ Differdange 03 6 893 54.41% Grevenmacher 0 808 15.97% 29.62%
9 1954-02-28 19.93 @ FC Schifflange 95 6 925 54.87% Spora Luxembourg 0 835 15.62% 29.50%
10 1954-01-03 19.79 @ Fola Esch 5 926 50.64% Red Star Merl 0 878 18.98% 30.38%
11 1953-10-04 18.35 FC Schifflange 95 5 950 40.10% @ US Dudelange 1 830 28.97% 30.92%
12 1953-09-27 17.65 Differdange 03 2 900 19.34% @ Stade Dudelange 0 944 50.20% 30.46%
13 1954-04-25 17.45 Differdange 03 2 913 19.89% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 952 49.56% 30.56%
14 1954-01-10 17.16 SC Tetange 3 831 13.83% @ Fola Esch 1 946 57.35% 28.82%
15 1953-10-11 16.89 @ Red Star Merl 4 847 49.19% US Dudelange 0 811 20.20% 30.61%
16 1954-01-31 16.72 FC Schifflange 95 3 923 15.02% @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1021 55.69% 29.29%
17 1953-11-08 14.96 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 921 44.46% Stade Dudelange 0 926 24.43% 31.12%
18 1953-10-04 14.93 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 909 44.54% Spora Luxembourg 0 913 24.35% 31.11%
19 1953-08-23 14.68 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3 902 21.30% @ Progres Niedercorn 1 927 47.92% 30.78%
20 1953-08-30 14.66 FC Schifflange 95 2 948 28.70% @ Differdange 03 0 908 39.98% 31.32%
21 1954-02-28 14.66 SC Tetange 3 875 21.39% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 899 47.82% 30.79%
22 1953-09-27 14.01 @ Fola Esch 4 908 40.48% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 944 28.21% 31.31%
23 1954-03-28 13.70 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 938 41.40% Fola Esch 1 966 27.32% 31.28%
24 1954-02-21 12.95 @ SC Tetange 6 862 46.67% Spora Luxembourg 2 848 22.41% 30.92%
25 1954-04-04 12.94 @ Fola Esch 7 952 59.97% Spora Luxembourg 1 808 12.09% 27.95%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-04-25 61.7 Grevenmacher 4 788 8.10% @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1022 67.17% 24.73%
2 1953-08-23 58.9 Fola Esch 5 882 23.71% @ Red Star Merl 4 884 45.23% 31.05%
3 1953-09-27 57.9 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 910 51.53% SC Tetange 3 853 18.24% 30.23%
4 1954-01-31 57.5 @ US Dudelange 3 795 38.18% Spora Luxembourg 3 848 30.48% 31.34%
5 1954-04-04 57.5 @ Red Star Merl 3 870 36.77% FC Schifflange 95 3 933 31.90% 31.33%
6 1953-10-25 57.4 Grevenmacher 3 774 10.93% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2 940 61.85% 27.22%
7 1954-02-07 57.0 US Dudelange 3 795 12.09% @ FC Schifflange 95 2 940 59.97% 27.95%
8 1953-10-11 56.7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 4 922 24.60% @ Differdange 03 3 916 44.27% 31.13%
9 1954-01-17 55.1 Red Star Merl 3 864 18.43% @ Differdange 03 2 919 51.30% 30.27%
10 1954-01-10 54.4 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 931 59.95% Grevenmacher 2 787 12.10% 27.95%
11 1953-10-04 53.7 @ Grevenmacher 2 764 24.52% Fola Esch 2 922 45.14% 30.33%
12 1953-11-08 53.7 @ SC Tetange 2 830 50.38% Grevenmacher 2 784 19.20% 30.43%
13 1954-01-17 53.7 @ SC Tetange 2 848 50.81% US Dudelange 2 798 18.84% 30.36%
14 1954-02-07 53.6 @ Red Star Merl 2 868 27.03% Jeunesse Esch 2 1004 42.26% 30.71%
15 1953-08-23 53.5 @ FC Schifflange 95 2 948 46.60% Stade Dudelange 2 935 22.47% 30.93%
16 1953-10-04 53.5 Stade Dudelange 3 927 23.62% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2 930 45.34% 31.05%
17 1953-11-08 53.5 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 929 46.13% Fola Esch 2 920 22.90% 30.97%
18 1954-01-03 53.5 @ Differdange 03 2 894 44.89% Spora Luxembourg 2 895 24.03% 31.08%
19 1953-09-13 53.4 @ US Dudelange 2 830 34.32% Progres Niedercorn 2 910 34.41% 31.27%
20 1953-10-11 53.4 @ Fola Esch 2 921 37.08% Jeunesse Esch 2 982 31.59% 31.33%
21 1953-11-08 53.4 @ US Dudelange 2 797 31.94% Differdange 03 2 894 36.90% 31.16%
22 1954-02-28 53.4 @ Red Star Merl 2 862 35.05% Progres Niedercorn 2 938 33.66% 31.29%
23 1953-10-18 52.7 @ Grevenmacher 3 767 26.36% Differdange 03 2 909 43.02% 30.62%
24 1954-04-04 52.0 @ Grevenmacher 3 781 28.91% SC Tetange 2 902 40.17% 30.92%
25 1953-09-27 51.9 Grevenmacher 2 754 14.00% @ Red Star Merl 1 867 57.11% 28.89%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-08-30 29.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 949 57.38% US Dudelange 0 833 13.81% 28.81%
2 1954-02-28 30.1 @ FC Schifflange 95 6 925 54.87% Spora Luxembourg 0 835 15.62% 29.50%
3 1954-03-21 30.3 @ Differdange 03 6 893 54.41% Grevenmacher 0 808 15.97% 29.62%
4 1953-09-06 30.7 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 906 60.96% Grevenmacher 0 750 11.46% 27.57%
5 1954-01-03 30.8 @ Fola Esch 5 926 50.64% Red Star Merl 0 878 18.98% 30.38%
6 1954-02-28 30.9 @ Fola Esch 2 961 60.43% US Dudelange 0 811 11.80% 27.78%
7 1953-10-11 31.1 @ Red Star Merl 4 847 49.19% US Dudelange 0 811 20.20% 30.61%
8 1954-04-04 31.3 @ Fola Esch 7 952 59.97% Spora Luxembourg 1 808 12.09% 27.95%
9 1953-10-04 32.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 972 57.32% Red Star Merl 1 857 13.85% 28.83%
10 1954-01-17 33.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1004 53.35% Progres Niedercorn 0 930 16.79% 29.86%
11 1953-08-30 33.5 @ Stade Dudelange 2 936 51.77% Red Star Merl 0 877 18.05% 30.18%
12 1953-10-04 33.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 909 44.54% Spora Luxembourg 0 913 24.35% 31.11%
13 1953-11-08 33.5 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 921 44.46% Stade Dudelange 0 926 24.43% 31.12%
14 1953-08-23 34.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 940 49.94% SC Tetange 0 898 19.56% 30.50%
15 1953-10-25 34.4 @ FC Schifflange 95 1 966 58.92% SC Tetange 0 833 12.77% 28.32%
16 1954-02-07 34.5 @ Fola Esch 6 964 60.39% Grevenmacher 2 815 11.82% 27.79%
17 1954-01-24 34.6 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 922 58.10% US Dudelange 0 799 13.32% 28.59%
18 1954-01-17 36.1 @ Grevenmacher 4 788 32.40% Spora Luxembourg 0 883 36.41% 31.18%
19 1953-08-30 36.3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 7 917 43.32% Spora Luxembourg 1 931 25.49% 31.19%
20 1953-10-11 36.4 @ Spora Luxembourg 4 898 49.98% SC Tetange 1 855 19.53% 30.49%
21 1953-09-13 36.7 @ Differdange 03 2 888 41.10% Fola Esch 0 919 27.61% 31.29%
22 1954-01-24 36.7 @ FC Schifflange 95 3 917 56.14% Grevenmacher 1 814 14.69% 29.17%
23 1953-10-18 36.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 982 50.79% Stade Dudelange 0 932 18.85% 30.36%
24 1954-02-21 36.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1004 48.78% Fola Esch 1 972 20.56% 30.67%
25 1953-10-25 37.1 @ Spora Luxembourg 6 918 51.71% Red Star Merl 2 860 18.10% 30.19%