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1968-69 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Avenir Beggen

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Avenir Beggen

9.75 points above expected

34 points · 24.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rumelange

6.76 points below expected

16 points · 22.76 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 22 16 2 4 34 67 29 +38 24.25 +9.75
2 Jeunesse Esch 22 16 2 4 34 44 14 +30 29.82 +4.18
3 Aris Bonnevoie 22 12 6 4 30 41 24 +17 26.70 +3.30
4 Union Luxembourg 22 12 5 5 29 62 31 +31 28.69 +0.31
5 US Dudelange 22 10 7 5 27 37 30 +7 24.15 +2.85
6 Differdange 03 22 9 5 8 23 43 32 +11 22.84 +0.16
7 Spora Luxembourg 22 7 3 12 17 35 42 -7 20.63 -3.63
8 Mondorf-les-Bains 22 7 3 12 17 30 51 -21 16.15 +0.85
9 Rumelange 22 4 8 10 16 19 27 -8 22.76 -6.76
10 Progres Niedercorn 22 4 5 13 13 27 61 -34 13.78 -0.78
11 Grevenmacher 22 4 5 13 13 21 56 -35 16.56 -3.56
12 Fola Esch 22 4 3 15 11 30 59 -29 17.67 -6.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 34 24.25 +9.75
2 Jeunesse Esch 34 29.82 +4.18
3 Aris Bonnevoie 30 26.70 +3.30
4 US Dudelange 27 24.15 +2.85
5 Mondorf-les-Bains 17 16.15 +0.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rumelange 16 22.76 -6.76
2 Fola Esch 11 17.67 -6.67
3 Spora Luxembourg 17 20.63 -3.63
4 Grevenmacher 13 16.56 -3.56
5 Progres Niedercorn 13 13.78 -0.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 9 Dec 14 – Apr 12 1 in 538
2 Spora Luxembourg 4 Oct 13 – Nov 10 1 in 85
3 US Dudelange 4 Nov 24 – Jan 18 1 in 41
4 Fola Esch 2 Nov 17 – Nov 24 1 in 27
5 Grevenmacher 2 Dec 15 – Dec 29 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 5 Sep 1 – Sep 29 1 in 105
2 Fola Esch 5 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 52
3 Grevenmacher 6 Oct 12 – Nov 24 1 in 37
4 Rumelange 3 Nov 24 – Dec 29 1 in 36
5 Differdange 03 3 Oct 26 – Nov 17 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 US Dudelange 7 Nov 10 – Jan 25 1 in 30
2 Avenir Beggen 9 Dec 14 – Apr 12 1 in 20
3 Progres Niedercorn 3 Oct 13 – Oct 26 1 in 18
4 Aris Bonnevoie 7 Aug 17 – Sep 28 1 in 17
5 Mondorf-les-Bains 4 Aug 17 – Sep 8 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rumelange 10 Nov 24 – Apr 12 1 in 190
2 Progres Niedercorn 13 Sep 8 – Jan 18 1 in 16
3 Differdange 03 4 Oct 20 – Nov 17 1 in 14
4 Spora Luxembourg 5 Sep 1 – Sep 29 1 in 11
5 Union Luxembourg 3 Jan 18 – Feb 1 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Avenir Beggen 1458 34 +87 10 6.9 +3.1
Jeunesse Esch 1431 34 +25 9 7.1 +1.9
Aris Bonnevoie 1364 30 +25 7 5.8 +1.2
Union Luxembourg 1406 29 -19 5 6.4 -1.4
US Dudelange 1308 27 -28 5 5.8 -0.8
Differdange 03 1307 23 +6 4 4.9 -0.9
Spora Luxembourg 1200 17 -15 4 4.9 -0.9
Mondorf-les-Bains 1076 17 -5 3 2.7 +0.3
Rumelange 1186 16 -56 3 5.2 -2.2
Progres Niedercorn 1121 13 +33 5 3.2 +1.8
Grevenmacher 1086 13 -38 2 3.8 -1.8
Fola Esch 1119 11 -14 3 3.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB AB D0 FE GRE JE MON PN RUM SL UD UL
Aris Bonnevoie —
0-1-1
3.33
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
4.13
1-1-0
4.02
0-1-1
2.20
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.07
0-2-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.18
2-0-0
2.24
Avenir Beggen
1-1-0
2.24
 —
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
1.94
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
3.81
0-0-2
2.82
2-0-0
3.35
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.56
Differdange 03
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.47
 —
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
1.78
0-1-1
3.53
1-1-0
4.36
0-2-0
3.14
2-0-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.93
0-1-1
2.07
Fola Esch
1-0-1
1.45
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
1.79
 —
0-0-2
3.26
1-0-1
1.57
1-0-1
3.05
0-1-1
3.39
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
2.22
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
1.38
Grevenmacher
0-1-1
1.56
0-0-2
1.50
0-0-2
2.46
2-0-0
2.31
 —
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
3.04
1-1-0
3.30
1-1-0
1.87
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.86
Jeunesse Esch
1-1-0
3.37
0-0-2
3.63
2-0-0
3.79
1-0-1
4.02
2-0-0
4.51
 —
2-0-0
4.53
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.18
1-0-1
3.83
1-1-0
2.93
Mondorf-les-Bains
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
1.59
1-1-0
2.04
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
2.53
0-0-2
1.07
 —
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
1.79
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
1.94
0-0-2
1.11
Progres Niedercorn
0-0-2
1.51
0-0-2
1.77
0-1-1
1.23
1-1-0
2.18
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
2.13
 —
1-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
1.82
0-1-1
1.89
0-1-1
0.98
Rumelange
0-2-0
1.99
2-0-0
2.75
0-2-0
2.43
1-1-0
3.48
0-1-1
3.70
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
3.78
1-0-1
3.98
 —
0-0-2
3.41
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
1.78
Spora Luxembourg
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
3.35
1-1-0
3.57
0-0-2
1.40
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
3.75
2-0-0
2.16
 —
1-0-1
2.10
1-0-1
1.79
US Dudelange
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.63
2-0-0
3.59
1-1-0
3.64
1-0-1
1.75
1-1-0
3.63
1-1-0
3.68
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.47
 —
0-1-1
1.90
Union Luxembourg
0-0-2
3.32
1-0-1
3.00
1-1-0
3.50
2-0-0
4.21
2-0-0
3.72
0-1-1
2.63
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
4.62
1-1-0
3.79
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.66 +4.7
Allowed 0.72 -4.7
Differential 0.91 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%6.82%5.68%3.03%1.89%1.14%26.89%
16.82%8.33%5.30%3.41%3.03%2.65%29.55%
25.68%5.30%—2.65%1.14%1.52%16.29%
33.03%3.41%2.65%3.03%0.38%0.76%13.26%
41.89%3.03%1.14%0.38%0.76%0.38%7.58%
5+1.14%2.65%1.52%0.76%0.38%—6.44%
Total26.89%29.55%16.29%13.26%7.58%6.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.73 +0.00
SD 1.78 1.78 2.52
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 11 11 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%————22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
34.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total31.82%40.91%18.18%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.09 +0.77
SD 1.49 1.06 1.57
CV 0.80 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
14.55%————4.55%9.09%
29.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
34.55%13.64%9.09%———27.27%
49.09%———4.55%—13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
Total36.36%27.27%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.05 1.32 +1.73
SD 2.34 1.43 2.55
CV 0.77 1.08 —
Max 10 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%—13.64%———31.82%
1—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
24.55%———4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total36.36%27.27%18.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.45 +0.50
SD 2.01 1.77 2.87
CV 1.03 1.21 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%22.73%—4.55%—36.36%
1—9.09%—9.09%4.55%—22.73%
2—9.09%———9.09%18.18%
34.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
44.55%————4.55%9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%22.73%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.68 -1.32
SD 1.36 2.44 2.61
CV 1.00 0.91 —
Max 4 11 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%40.91%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%13.64%—40.91%
24.55%—————4.55%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%18.18%9.09%22.73%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.55 -1.59
SD 1.13 1.92 2.32
CV 1.19 0.75 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
118.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
218.18%13.64%————31.82%
39.09%—————9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total54.55%31.82%9.09%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.64 +1.36
SD 1.93 0.85 2.17
CV 0.96 1.33 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%13.64%——36.36%
14.55%——4.55%9.09%9.09%27.27%
24.55%————4.55%9.09%
3—4.55%9.09%4.55%——18.18%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%13.64%22.73%22.73%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.32 -0.95
SD 1.40 1.64 2.13
CV 1.03 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—4.55%9.09%—27.27%
19.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%—13.64%50.00%
2————4.55%—4.55%
34.55%——4.55%—4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%9.09%13.64%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.77 -1.55
SD 1.27 2.78 2.94
CV 1.03 1.00 —
Max 5 10 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%4.55%4.55%——40.91%
14.55%18.18%13.64%———36.36%
24.55%4.55%—9.09%——18.18%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%36.36%22.73%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.23 -0.36
SD 0.89 1.02 1.09
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
14.55%—13.64%4.55%——22.73%
2—13.64%—9.09%4.55%—27.27%
34.55%——9.09%——13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%27.27%22.73%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.91 -0.32
SD 1.40 1.23 1.99
CV 0.88 0.64 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
113.64%13.64%———4.55%31.82%
218.18%9.09%—4.55%——31.82%
3———4.55%—4.55%9.09%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total40.91%31.82%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.36 +0.32
SD 1.43 1.76 1.78
CV 0.85 1.29 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
19.09%18.18%9.09%4.55%——40.91%
2———————
3———————
4—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
Total18.18%45.45%18.18%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 1.41 +1.41
SD 2.72 1.10 2.74
CV 0.96 0.78 —
Max 11 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Avenir Beggen 1458 34 24.25 +9.75 99.0% 15 16 21 24 27 31 35
Jeunesse Esch 1431 34 29.82 +4.18 91.0% 17 25 28 29 33 35 41
Union Luxembourg 1406 29 28.69 +0.31 59.0% 19 22 27 29 31 34 38
Aris Bonnevoie 1364 30 26.70 +3.30 86.0% 18 21 24 27 29 32 34
US Dudelange 1308 27 24.15 +2.85 79.0% 15 17 22 24 27 30 32
Differdange 03 1307 23 22.84 +0.16 59.0% 15 16 20 22 25 31 33
Spora Luxembourg 1200 17 20.63 -3.63 19.0% 10 14 18 20 23 28 30
Rumelange 1186 16 22.76 -6.76 7.0% 12 16 20 23 26 29 31
Progres Niedercorn 1121 13 13.78 -0.78 44.0% 6 8 11 14 16 19 23
Fola Esch 1119 11 17.67 -6.67 8.0% 5 11 15 18 21 24 28
Grevenmacher 1086 13 16.56 -3.56 23.0% 6 10 14 17 19 23 28
Mondorf-les-Bains 1076 17 16.15 +0.85 62.0% 8 10 13 16 19 22 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.27%
No Edge
40.91%20.45%38.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.90 Elo pts.
127 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Avenir Beggen, 4th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.13 * Some Luck: 3.13 to 4.7 * Lucky: 4.7 to 6.26 * Wild Swing: 6.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.03 * Off: 2.03 to 2.71 * Way Off: 2.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.56 points
Some Luck
03.9110
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Close
01.694
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.00%
Avenir Beggen
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.00%
Rumelange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 140.55
2.03
Strong Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
90%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Slight Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.21
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Avenir Beggen10.00%5.00%11.00%16.00%18.00%17.00%9.00%4.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%—
Jeunesse Esch40.00%29.00%16.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%—1.00%1.00%———
Aris Bonnevoie12.00%15.00%21.00%21.00%12.00%10.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%———
Union Luxembourg31.00%28.00%18.00%6.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
US Dudelange1.00%10.00%11.00%17.00%18.00%12.00%17.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Differdange 033.00%7.00%7.00%14.00%12.00%16.00%12.00%15.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%—
Spora Luxembourg1.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%19.00%15.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%
Mondorf-les-Bains———1.00%2.00%1.00%6.00%13.00%13.00%24.00%26.00%14.00%
Rumelange2.00%4.00%10.00%12.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%9.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%
Progres Niedercorn———————9.00%10.00%9.00%23.00%49.00%
Grevenmacher——1.00%1.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%6.00%24.00%18.00%19.00%17.00%
Fola Esch——1.00%——12.00%11.00%13.00%10.00%20.00%19.00%14.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Aris Bonnevoie 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
US Dudelange 99.00% 1.00%
Avenir Beggen 98.00% 2.00%
Differdange 03 98.00% 2.00%
Rumelange 95.00% 5.00%
Spora Luxembourg 91.00% 9.00%
Fola Esch 67.00% 33.00%
Grevenmacher 64.00% 36.00%
Mondorf-les-Bains 60.00% 40.00%
Progres Niedercorn 28.00% 72.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1968-08-17 Spora Luxembourg W 3-249.4 1278 1263 42.99% 21.68% 35.33%+0.18 +9.9 2
1968-08-17 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-349.4 1263 1278 35.33% 21.68% 42.99%-0.18 -9.9 0
1968-08-17 Rumelange L 0-238.4 1236 1295 32.64% 21.65% 45.71%-0.40 -19.6 0
1968-08-17 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-038.4 1295 1236 45.71% 21.65% 32.64%+0.40 +19.6 2
1968-08-17 Union Luxembourg L 1-441.7 1296 1326 36.69% 21.69% 41.63%-0.17 -26.4 0
1968-08-17 @ Grevenmacher W 4-141.7 1326 1296 41.63% 21.69% 36.69%+0.17 +26.4 2
1968-08-17 Fola Esch W 4-033.5 1322 1253 50.02% 21.59% 28.39%+0.60 +33.2 2
1968-08-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-433.5 1253 1322 28.39% 21.59% 50.02%-0.60 -33.2 0
1968-08-17 Differdange 03 D 0-050.1 1154 1211 32.81% 21.65% 45.54%-0.39 +0.9 1
1968-08-17 @ Mondorf-les-Bains D 0-050.1 1211 1154 45.54% 21.65% 32.81%+0.39 -0.9 1
1968-08-17 US Dudelange L 1-244.4 1184 1241 32.97% 21.65% 45.38%-0.38 -9.9 0
1968-08-17 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-144.4 1241 1184 45.38% 21.65% 32.97%+0.38 +9.9 2
1968-08-24 Progres Niedercorn W 3-033.0 1288 1175 55.34% 21.43% 23.23%+0.96 +21.5 4
1968-08-24 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-333.0 1175 1288 23.23% 21.43% 55.34%-0.96 -21.5 0
1968-08-25 Grevenmacher W 7-038.1 1210 1270 32.53% 21.65% 45.82%-0.41 +82.8 3
1968-08-25 @ Differdange 03 L 0-738.1 1270 1210 45.82% 21.65% 32.53%+0.41 -82.8 0
1968-08-25 Mondorf-les-Bains L 0-243.1 1220 1155 49.65% 21.60% 28.76%+0.58 -27.6 0
1968-08-25 @ Fola Esch W 2-043.1 1155 1220 28.76% 21.60% 49.65%-0.58 +27.6 3
1968-08-25 Jeunesse Esch L 1-246.3 1315 1355 35.10% 21.67% 43.23%-0.26 -10.4 2
1968-08-25 @ Rumelange W 2-146.3 1355 1315 43.23% 21.67% 35.10%+0.26 +10.4 4
1968-08-25 Union Luxembourg W 2-150.5 1253 1352 27.62% 21.55% 50.84%-0.72 +14.1 2
1968-08-25 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-250.5 1352 1253 50.84% 21.55% 27.62%+0.72 -14.1 2
1968-08-25 Avenir Beggen D 4-463.5 1251 1216 45.59% 21.66% 32.75%+0.33 -0.5 3
1968-08-25 @ US Dudelange D 4-463.5 1216 1251 32.75% 21.66% 45.59%-0.33 +0.4 1
1968-08-31 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-050.5 1217 1310 28.31% 21.56% 50.12%-0.67 +1.6 2
1968-08-31 @ Avenir Beggen D 0-050.5 1310 1217 50.12% 21.56% 28.31%+0.67 -1.6 5
1968-09-01 Fola Esch W 4-352.9 1187 1193 40.10% 21.69% 38.21%+0.02 +10.3 2
1968-09-01 @ Grevenmacher L 3-452.9 1193 1187 38.21% 21.69% 40.10%-0.02 -10.3 0
1968-09-01 US Dudelange W 1-038.5 1366 1250 55.50% 21.42% 23.08%+0.97 +7.8 6
1968-09-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-138.5 1250 1366 23.08% 21.42% 55.50%-0.97 -7.8 3
1968-09-01 Rumelange W 3-254.6 1182 1304 24.95% 21.46% 53.59%-0.90 +14.0 5
1968-09-01 @ Mondorf-les-Bains L 2-354.6 1304 1182 53.59% 21.46% 24.95%+0.90 -14.0 2
1968-09-01 Spora Luxembourg W 1-046.6 1153 1267 25.80% 21.49% 52.71%-0.84 +15.5 2
1968-09-01 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-146.6 1267 1153 52.71% 21.49% 25.80%+0.84 -15.5 2
1968-09-01 Differdange 03 W 4-140.2 1338 1293 46.97% 21.64% 31.38%+0.42 +23.3 4
1968-09-01 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-440.2 1293 1338 31.38% 21.64% 46.97%-0.42 -23.3 3
1968-09-07 Union Luxembourg L 4-549.4 1182 1361 19.18% 21.18% 59.65%-1.35 -5.7 0
1968-09-07 @ Fola Esch W 5-449.4 1361 1182 59.65% 21.18% 19.18%+1.35 +5.7 6
1968-09-08 Jeunesse Esch D 0-051.6 1308 1373 31.83% 21.63% 46.54%-0.45 +1.0 6
1968-09-08 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 0-051.6 1373 1308 46.54% 21.63% 31.83%+0.45 -1.1 7
1968-09-08 Avenir Beggen L 0-434.5 1168 1218 33.84% 21.66% 44.50%-0.33 -38.3 2
1968-09-08 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-034.5 1218 1168 44.50% 21.66% 33.84%+0.33 +38.3 4
1968-09-08 Grevenmacher D 1-153.6 1290 1198 52.91% 21.51% 25.58%+0.79 -1.8 3
1968-09-08 @ Rumelange D 1-153.6 1198 1290 25.58% 21.51% 52.91%-0.79 +1.8 3
1968-09-08 Differdange 03 L 0-240.0 1252 1270 38.27% 21.69% 40.04%-0.08 -22.2 2
1968-09-08 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-040.0 1270 1252 40.04% 21.69% 38.27%+0.08 +22.3 5
1968-09-08 Mondorf-les-Bains D 0-050.2 1242 1196 47.16% 21.64% 31.20%+0.43 -1.2 4
1968-09-08 @ US Dudelange D 0-050.2 1196 1242 31.20% 21.64% 47.16%-0.43 +1.2 6
1968-09-14 Spora Luxembourg W 2-144.8 1257 1230 44.61% 21.67% 33.72%+0.28 +10.1 6
1968-09-14 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-244.8 1230 1257 33.72% 21.67% 44.61%-0.28 -10.1 2
1968-09-15 Fola Esch W 3-139.1 1292 1177 55.53% 21.42% 23.05%+0.98 +12.7 7
1968-09-15 @ Differdange 03 L 1-339.1 1177 1292 23.05% 21.42% 55.53%-0.98 -12.7 0
1968-09-15 US Dudelange D 3-360.9 1199 1241 34.93% 21.67% 43.39%-0.27 +0.3 4
1968-09-15 @ Grevenmacher D 3-360.9 1241 1199 43.39% 21.67% 34.93%+0.27 -0.3 5
1968-09-15 Progres Niedercorn W 9-129.8 1372 1130 66.87% 20.61% 12.52%+1.97 +25.6 9
1968-09-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-929.8 1130 1372 12.52% 20.61% 66.87%-1.97 -25.6 2
1968-09-15 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-340.2 1197 1309 26.08% 21.50% 52.42%-0.82 -14.1 6
1968-09-15 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 3-140.2 1309 1197 52.42% 21.50% 26.08%+0.82 +14.1 8
1968-09-15 Rumelange W 1-040.1 1367 1288 51.26% 21.56% 27.18%+0.68 +9.0 8
1968-09-15 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-140.1 1288 1367 27.18% 21.56% 51.26%-0.68 -9.0 3
1968-09-21 Grevenmacher W 4-136.7 1323 1200 56.40% 21.39% 22.21%+1.04 +17.4 10
1968-09-21 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-436.7 1200 1323 22.21% 21.39% 56.40%-1.04 -17.4 4
1968-09-21 Union Luxembourg L 3-546.1 1241 1376 23.53% 21.41% 55.07%-1.00 -10.9 5
1968-09-21 @ US Dudelange W 5-346.1 1376 1241 55.07% 21.41% 23.53%+1.00 +10.9 10
1968-09-22 Jeunesse Esch W 1-048.4 1267 1398 23.94% 21.42% 54.64%-0.97 +16.0 8
1968-09-22 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-148.4 1398 1267 54.64% 21.42% 23.94%+0.97 -16.0 9
1968-09-22 Spora Luxembourg W 4-038.0 1164 1220 33.06% 21.65% 45.29%-0.38 +48.4 2
1968-09-22 @ Fola Esch L 0-438.0 1220 1164 45.29% 21.65% 33.06%+0.38 -48.4 2
1968-09-22 Mondorf-les-Bains L 2-444.6 1105 1183 30.09% 21.60% 48.31%-0.56 -14.2 2
1968-09-22 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-244.6 1183 1105 48.31% 21.60% 30.09%+0.56 +14.2 8
1968-09-22 Differdange 03 D 0-050.8 1279 1305 37.19% 21.69% 41.12%-0.14 +0.3 4
1968-09-22 @ Rumelange D 0-050.8 1305 1279 41.12% 21.69% 37.19%+0.14 -0.3 8
1968-09-28 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-147.0 1387 1341 47.13% 21.64% 31.23%+0.43 -14.0 10
1968-09-28 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-047.0 1341 1387 31.23% 21.64% 47.13%-0.43 +14.0 12
1968-09-29 US Dudelange L 0-243.8 1305 1230 50.77% 21.57% 27.66%+0.65 -28.2 8
1968-09-29 @ Differdange 03 W 2-043.8 1230 1305 27.66% 21.57% 50.77%-0.65 +28.2 7
1968-09-29 Progres Niedercorn W 1-038.3 1182 1090 52.84% 21.52% 25.64%+0.79 +8.5 6
1968-09-29 @ Grevenmacher L 0-138.3 1090 1182 25.64% 21.52% 52.84%-0.79 -8.5 2
1968-09-29 Avenir Beggen L 0-334.9 1198 1283 29.26% 21.59% 49.15%-0.61 -26.1 8
1968-09-29 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 3-034.9 1283 1198 49.15% 21.59% 29.26%+0.61 +26.0 10
1968-09-29 Jeunesse Esch L 0-331.1 1171 1382 16.46% 20.97% 62.57%-1.60 -15.9 2
1968-09-29 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-031.1 1382 1171 62.57% 20.97% 16.46%+1.60 +15.9 11
1968-10-05 Rumelange L 0-140.5 1212 1280 31.53% 21.63% 46.84%-0.47 -10.1 2
1968-10-05 @ Fola Esch W 1-040.5 1280 1212 46.84% 21.63% 31.53%+0.47 +10.1 6
1968-10-12 Grevenmacher W 4-031.4 1309 1191 55.79% 21.41% 22.80%+0.99 +27.6 12
1968-10-12 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-431.4 1191 1309 22.80% 21.41% 55.79%-0.99 -27.6 6
1968-10-13 Differdange 03 L 1-446.1 1355 1276 51.23% 21.56% 27.21%+0.68 -34.8 12
1968-10-13 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-146.1 1276 1355 27.21% 21.56% 51.23%-0.68 +34.8 10
1968-10-13 Mondorf-les-Bains W 4-134.2 1398 1171 65.72% 20.74% 13.55%+1.85 +11.2 13
1968-10-13 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-434.2 1171 1398 13.55% 20.74% 65.72%-1.85 -11.2 8
1968-10-13 Union Luxembourg D 1-153.8 1082 1373 11.05% 20.32% 68.63%-2.24 +4.1 3
1968-10-13 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.8 1373 1082 68.63% 20.32% 11.05%+2.24 -4.1 11
1968-10-13 Spora Luxembourg L 1-251.7 1290 1155 57.53% 21.33% 21.14%+1.12 -15.8 6
1968-10-13 @ Rumelange W 2-151.7 1155 1290 21.14% 21.33% 57.53%-1.12 +15.8 4
1968-10-13 Fola Esch W 6-239.6 1258 1202 48.44% 21.62% 29.94%+0.51 +24.5 9
1968-10-13 @ US Dudelange L 2-639.6 1202 1258 29.94% 21.62% 48.44%-0.51 -24.5 2
1968-10-19 Avenir Beggen W 5-139.7 1369 1336 45.31% 21.66% 33.03%+0.32 +31.3 13
1968-10-19 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-539.7 1336 1369 33.03% 21.66% 45.31%-0.32 -31.3 12
1968-10-20 Progres Niedercorn D 0-050.4 1311 1086 65.63% 20.75% 13.62%+1.84 -4.1 11
1968-10-20 @ Differdange 03 D 0-050.4 1086 1311 13.62% 20.75% 65.63%-1.84 +4.1 4
1968-10-20 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-436.8 1178 1320 22.73% 21.37% 55.90%-1.06 -17.8 2
1968-10-20 @ Fola Esch W 4-136.8 1320 1178 55.90% 21.37% 22.73%+1.06 +17.8 14
1968-10-20 Jeunesse Esch L 0-135.3 1163 1409 13.85% 20.71% 65.44%-1.88 -5.0 6
1968-10-20 @ Grevenmacher W 1-035.3 1409 1163 65.44% 20.71% 13.85%+1.88 +5.0 15
1968-10-20 US Dudelange L 0-143.2 1274 1283 39.58% 21.69% 38.73%-0.01 -12.1 6
1968-10-20 @ Rumelange W 1-043.2 1283 1274 38.73% 21.69% 39.58%+0.01 +12.1 11
1968-10-20 Mondorf-les-Bains W 3-036.6 1171 1160 42.38% 21.69% 35.93%+0.15 +30.8 6
1968-10-20 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-336.6 1160 1171 35.93% 21.69% 42.38%-0.15 -30.8 8
1968-10-26 Rumelange D 0-050.9 1338 1262 50.95% 21.57% 27.48%+0.66 -1.7 15
1968-10-26 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 0-050.9 1262 1338 27.48% 21.57% 50.95%-0.66 +1.7 7
1968-10-26 Differdange 03 W 3-144.3 1305 1307 40.56% 21.69% 37.74%+0.05 +19.1 14
1968-10-26 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-344.3 1307 1305 37.74% 21.69% 40.56%-0.05 -19.1 11
1968-10-26 Union Luxembourg W 3-040.3 1414 1400 42.81% 21.68% 35.51%+0.17 +30.5 17
1968-10-26 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-340.3 1400 1414 35.51% 21.68% 42.81%-0.17 -30.5 13
1968-10-26 Grevenmacher W 3-144.5 1129 1158 36.75% 21.69% 41.57%-0.16 +20.6 10
1968-10-26 @ Mondorf-les-Bains L 1-344.5 1158 1129 41.57% 21.69% 36.75%+0.16 -20.6 6
1968-10-26 Fola Esch D 1-153.2 1090 1160 31.23% 21.63% 47.14%-0.49 +1.0 5
1968-10-26 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.2 1160 1090 47.14% 21.63% 31.23%+0.49 -1.0 3
1968-10-26 Spora Luxembourg L 0-146.9 1295 1202 52.96% 21.51% 25.52%+0.80 -15.5 11
1968-10-26 @ US Dudelange W 1-046.9 1202 1295 25.52% 21.51% 52.96%-0.80 +15.5 8
1968-11-09 Avenir Beggen L 0-234.4 1159 1324 20.44% 21.25% 58.31%-1.24 -13.2 3
1968-11-09 @ Fola Esch W 2-034.4 1324 1159 58.31% 21.25% 20.44%+1.24 +13.2 16
1968-11-10 Jeunesse Esch L 0-236.7 1288 1444 21.32% 21.30% 57.38%-1.17 -13.7 11
1968-11-10 @ Differdange 03 W 2-036.7 1444 1288 57.38% 21.30% 21.32%+1.17 +13.7 19
1968-11-10 Mondorf-les-Bains W 4-134.1 1370 1150 65.19% 20.79% 14.01%+1.80 +11.6 15
1968-11-10 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-434.1 1150 1370 14.01% 20.79% 65.19%-1.80 -11.6 10
1968-11-10 Progres Niedercorn W 2-139.5 1263 1091 61.22% 21.12% 17.65%+1.42 +5.8 9
1968-11-10 @ Rumelange L 1-239.5 1091 1263 17.65% 21.12% 61.22%-1.42 -5.8 5
1968-11-10 Grevenmacher W 4-137.8 1217 1138 51.39% 21.56% 27.05%+0.69 +20.6 10
1968-11-10 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-437.8 1138 1217 27.05% 21.56% 51.39%-0.69 -20.6 6
1968-11-10 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.2 1279 1336 32.92% 21.65% 45.43%-0.39 +0.8 12
1968-11-10 @ US Dudelange D 1-154.2 1336 1279 45.43% 21.65% 32.92%+0.39 -0.8 16
1968-11-16 Grevenmacher W 5-027.0 1381 1117 68.37% 20.42% 11.21%+2.15 +18.0 17
1968-11-16 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-527.0 1117 1381 11.21% 20.42% 68.37%-2.15 -18.0 6
1968-11-17 Mondorf-les-Bains L 2-453.0 1274 1138 57.69% 21.33% 20.99%+1.14 -24.6 11
1968-11-17 @ Differdange 03 W 4-253.0 1138 1274 20.99% 21.33% 57.69%-1.14 +24.6 12
1968-11-17 Jeunesse Esch W 2-155.8 1146 1458 9.90% 20.11% 69.99%-2.41 +19.2 5
1968-11-17 @ Fola Esch L 1-255.8 1458 1146 69.99% 20.11% 9.90%+2.41 -19.2 19
1968-11-17 Avenir Beggen W 3-253.2 1269 1337 31.43% 21.63% 46.94%-0.48 +12.5 11
1968-11-17 @ Rumelange L 2-353.2 1337 1269 46.94% 21.63% 31.43%+0.48 -12.5 16
1968-11-17 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-243.3 1238 1335 27.79% 21.55% 50.65%-0.71 -8.6 10
1968-11-17 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-143.3 1335 1238 50.65% 21.55% 27.79%+0.71 +8.6 18
1968-11-17 Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.5 1280 1085 63.20% 20.97% 15.83%+1.60 -3.3 13
1968-11-17 @ US Dudelange D 1-153.5 1085 1280 15.83% 20.97% 63.20%-1.60 +3.3 6
1968-11-23 Spora Luxembourg W 4-241.9 1399 1229 60.98% 21.14% 17.88%+1.40 +9.1 19
1968-11-23 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-441.9 1229 1399 17.88% 21.14% 60.98%-1.40 -9.1 10
1968-11-24 US Dudelange L 0-145.8 1325 1277 47.42% 21.64% 30.94%+0.44 -14.1 16
1968-11-24 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-045.8 1277 1325 30.94% 21.64% 47.42%-0.44 +14.1 15
1968-11-24 Differdange 03 L 0-332.3 1099 1250 21.89% 21.33% 56.77%-1.13 -20.4 6
1968-11-24 @ Grevenmacher W 3-032.3 1250 1099 56.77% 21.33% 21.89%+1.13 +20.4 13
1968-11-24 Rumelange W 2-035.8 1439 1282 59.81% 21.21% 18.98%+1.30 +12.4 21
1968-11-24 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-235.8 1282 1439 18.98% 21.21% 59.81%-1.30 -12.4 11
1968-11-24 Fola Esch L 0-338.0 1163 1165 40.60% 21.69% 37.71%+0.05 -33.9 12
1968-11-24 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 3-038.0 1165 1163 37.71% 21.69% 40.60%-0.05 +33.9 7
1968-11-24 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-335.9 1089 1344 13.22% 20.63% 66.15%-1.95 -7.8 6
1968-11-24 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-135.9 1344 1089 66.15% 20.63% 13.22%+1.95 +7.8 20
1968-12-14 Avenir Beggen L 2-353.6 1352 1311 46.45% 21.65% 31.90%+0.38 -12.4 20
1968-12-14 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-253.6 1311 1352 31.90% 21.65% 46.45%-0.38 +12.4 18
1968-12-15 Union Luxembourg D 0-051.7 1270 1408 23.19% 21.39% 55.41%-1.03 +2.4 14
1968-12-15 @ Differdange 03 D 0-051.7 1408 1270 55.41% 21.39% 23.19%+1.03 -2.4 20
1968-12-15 Grevenmacher L 0-244.8 1199 1079 56.00% 21.40% 22.59%+1.01 -30.9 7
1968-12-15 @ Fola Esch W 2-044.8 1079 1199 22.59% 21.40% 56.00%-1.01 +30.9 8
1968-12-15 Mondorf-les-Bains L 2-355.7 1269 1129 58.12% 21.30% 20.57%+1.17 -15.2 11
1968-12-15 @ Rumelange W 3-255.7 1129 1269 20.57% 21.30% 58.12%-1.17 +15.2 14
1968-12-15 Progres Niedercorn W 5-134.0 1220 1081 58.05% 21.31% 20.64%+1.16 +21.1 12
1968-12-15 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-534.0 1081 1220 20.64% 21.31% 58.05%-1.16 -21.1 6
1968-12-15 Jeunesse Esch W 2-047.8 1291 1451 20.92% 21.28% 57.80%-1.20 +31.8 17
1968-12-15 @ US Dudelange L 0-247.8 1451 1291 57.80% 21.28% 20.92%+1.20 -31.8 21
1968-12-28 Fola Esch W 11-230.8 1406 1168 66.58% 20.64% 12.78%+1.94 +23.7 22
1968-12-28 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-1130.8 1168 1406 12.78% 20.64% 66.58%-1.94 -23.7 7
1968-12-29 Progres Niedercorn W 10-330.7 1323 1060 68.34% 20.42% 11.24%+2.14 +14.9 20
1968-12-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 3-1030.7 1060 1323 11.24% 20.42% 68.34%-2.14 -14.9 6
1968-12-29 Spora Luxembourg W 3-142.4 1273 1241 45.16% 21.67% 33.17%+0.31 +17.2 16
1968-12-29 @ Differdange 03 L 1-342.4 1241 1273 33.17% 21.67% 45.16%-0.31 -17.2 12
1968-12-29 Rumelange W 1-047.5 1110 1254 22.51% 21.36% 56.13%-1.08 +16.4 10
1968-12-29 @ Grevenmacher L 0-147.5 1254 1110 56.13% 21.36% 22.51%+1.08 -16.4 11
1968-12-29 Aris Bonnevoie W 1-041.5 1420 1339 51.45% 21.55% 26.99%+0.70 +8.9 23
1968-12-29 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-141.5 1339 1420 26.99% 21.55% 51.45%-0.70 -8.9 20
1968-12-29 US Dudelange L 0-136.6 1144 1323 19.23% 21.18% 59.59%-1.35 -6.7 14
1968-12-29 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 1-036.6 1323 1144 59.59% 21.18% 19.23%+1.35 +6.7 19
1969-01-18 Mondorf-les-Bains W 5-237.7 1330 1138 63.02% 20.99% 15.99%+1.58 +11.3 22
1969-01-18 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-537.7 1138 1330 15.99% 20.99% 63.02%-1.58 -11.3 14
1969-01-18 Differdange 03 L 1-338.8 1144 1290 22.40% 21.36% 56.24%-1.09 -12.4 7
1969-01-18 @ Fola Esch W 3-138.8 1290 1144 56.24% 21.36% 22.40%+1.09 +12.4 18
1969-01-18 Jeunesse Esch L 0-132.4 1045 1428 6.88% 19.35% 73.78%-2.97 -2.5 6
1969-01-18 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-032.4 1428 1045 73.78% 19.35% 6.88%+2.97 +2.5 25
1969-01-18 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.8 1238 1430 18.04% 21.10% 60.86%-1.45 +3.0 12
1969-01-18 @ Rumelange D 1-154.8 1430 1238 60.86% 21.10% 18.04%+1.45 -3.0 23
1969-01-18 Avenir Beggen L 2-346.6 1224 1338 25.84% 21.49% 52.66%-0.84 -7.7 12
1969-01-18 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-246.6 1338 1224 52.66% 21.49% 25.84%+0.84 +7.7 22
1969-01-18 Grevenmacher W 2-138.9 1329 1126 63.91% 20.91% 15.18%+1.67 +5.1 21
1969-01-18 @ US Dudelange L 1-238.9 1126 1329 15.18% 20.91% 63.91%-1.67 -5.1 10
1969-01-25 US Dudelange D 1-156.0 1427 1334 52.87% 21.51% 25.62%+0.79 -1.8 24
1969-01-25 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-156.0 1334 1427 25.62% 21.51% 52.87%-0.79 +1.8 22
1969-01-26 Rumelange D 1-153.7 1302 1241 49.13% 21.61% 29.27%+0.55 -1.3 19
1969-01-26 @ Differdange 03 D 1-153.7 1241 1302 29.27% 21.61% 49.13%-0.55 +1.3 13
1969-01-26 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-153.7 1121 1342 15.67% 20.90% 63.43%-1.68 +3.3 11
1969-01-26 @ Grevenmacher D 1-153.7 1342 1121 63.43% 20.90% 15.67%+1.68 -3.3 23
1969-01-26 Avenir Beggen L 1-350.7 1431 1346 52.04% 21.54% 26.42%+0.73 -25.0 25
1969-01-26 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-150.7 1346 1431 26.42% 21.54% 52.04%-0.73 +25.0 24
1969-01-26 Progres Niedercorn L 1-543.4 1126 1042 51.91% 21.54% 26.54%+0.73 -45.5 14
1969-01-26 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 5-143.4 1042 1126 26.54% 21.54% 51.91%-0.73 +45.5 8
1969-01-26 Fola Esch D 3-360.8 1217 1132 52.01% 21.54% 26.45%+0.73 -1.0 13
1969-01-26 @ Spora Luxembourg D 3-360.8 1132 1217 26.45% 21.54% 52.01%-0.73 +1.0 8
1969-02-01 Union Luxembourg W 2-151.9 1338 1425 29.13% 21.58% 49.29%-0.62 +13.7 25
1969-02-01 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-251.9 1425 1338 49.29% 21.58% 29.13%+0.62 -13.7 24
1969-03-01 Mondorf-les-Bains W 5-130.6 1371 1081 69.99% 20.18% 9.83%+2.35 +10.7 26
1969-03-01 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-530.6 1081 1371 9.83% 20.18% 69.99%-2.35 -10.7 14
1969-03-02 Spora Luxembourg W 2-140.0 1406 1216 62.84% 21.00% 16.16%+1.57 +5.4 27
1969-03-02 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.0 1216 1406 16.16% 21.00% 62.84%-1.57 -5.4 13
1969-03-02 Grevenmacher D 3-360.7 1088 1124 35.68% 21.68% 42.64%-0.23 +0.3 9
1969-03-02 @ Progres Niedercorn D 3-360.7 1124 1088 42.64% 21.68% 35.68%+0.23 -0.3 12
1969-03-02 Fola Esch D 1-153.3 1242 1133 54.83% 21.45% 23.72%+0.93 -2.1 14
1969-03-02 @ Rumelange D 1-153.3 1133 1242 23.72% 21.45% 54.83%-0.93 +2.1 9
1969-03-02 Differdange 03 L 1-641.6 1336 1301 45.72% 21.66% 32.62%+0.34 -49.8 22
1969-03-02 @ US Dudelange W 6-141.6 1301 1336 32.62% 21.66% 45.72%-0.34 +49.8 21
1969-03-08 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-242.2 1351 1352 40.65% 21.69% 37.66%+0.05 -23.3 21
1969-03-08 @ Differdange 03 W 2-042.2 1352 1351 37.66% 21.69% 40.65%-0.05 +23.3 27
1969-03-09 US Dudelange L 0-234.7 1135 1286 21.80% 21.33% 56.88%-1.13 -14.0 9
1969-03-09 @ Fola Esch W 2-034.7 1286 1135 56.88% 21.33% 21.80%+1.13 +14.0 24
1969-03-09 Avenir Beggen L 0-527.7 1124 1382 13.06% 20.61% 66.32%-1.97 -20.7 12
1969-03-09 @ Grevenmacher W 5-027.7 1382 1124 66.32% 20.61% 13.06%+1.97 +20.7 28
1969-03-09 Jeunesse Esch L 0-230.4 1070 1411 8.56% 19.82% 71.63%-2.63 -5.9 14
1969-03-09 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 2-030.4 1411 1070 71.63% 19.82% 8.56%+2.63 +5.9 29
1969-03-09 Progres Niedercorn W 6-129.1 1411 1088 71.86% 19.84% 8.30%+2.61 +11.1 26
1969-03-09 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-629.1 1088 1411 8.30% 19.84% 71.86%-2.61 -11.1 9
1969-03-09 Rumelange W 2-147.1 1210 1240 36.60% 21.68% 41.71%-0.17 +11.9 15
1969-03-09 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-247.1 1240 1210 41.71% 21.68% 36.60%+0.17 -11.9 14
1969-03-15 Union Luxembourg W 3-148.2 1402 1422 38.00% 21.69% 40.31%-0.09 +20.1 30
1969-03-15 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-348.2 1422 1402 40.31% 21.69% 38.00%+0.09 -20.1 26
1969-03-16 Fola Esch L 1-254.7 1375 1121 67.74% 20.50% 11.76%+2.07 -18.6 27
1969-03-16 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-154.7 1121 1375 11.76% 20.50% 67.74%-2.07 +18.6 11
1969-03-16 Grevenmacher W 2-030.6 1417 1103 71.38% 19.93% 8.69%+2.54 +6.0 31
1969-03-16 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-230.6 1103 1417 8.69% 19.93% 71.38%-2.54 -6.0 12
1969-03-16 Spora Luxembourg D 3-360.8 1064 1222 21.18% 21.30% 57.52%-1.18 +1.5 15
1969-03-16 @ Mondorf-les-Bains D 3-360.8 1222 1064 57.52% 21.30% 21.18%+1.18 -1.5 16
1969-03-16 Differdange 03 L 0-428.2 1077 1327 13.54% 20.67% 65.79%-1.92 -17.4 9
1969-03-16 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-028.2 1327 1077 65.79% 20.67% 13.54%+1.92 +17.4 23
1969-03-16 Rumelange D 0-050.5 1300 1228 50.49% 21.58% 27.93%+0.63 -1.7 25
1969-03-16 @ US Dudelange D 0-050.5 1228 1300 27.93% 21.58% 50.49%-0.63 +1.7 15
1969-03-29 Avenir Beggen L 2-740.6 1345 1422 30.22% 21.61% 48.17%-0.55 -29.8 23
1969-03-29 @ Differdange 03 W 7-240.6 1422 1345 48.17% 21.61% 30.22%+0.55 +29.8 32
1969-03-29 Progres Niedercorn L 0-146.1 1139 1060 51.41% 21.56% 27.03%+0.69 -15.1 11
1969-03-29 @ Fola Esch W 1-046.1 1060 1139 27.03% 21.56% 51.41%-0.69 +15.1 11
1969-03-29 Mondorf-les-Bains L 0-144.2 1097 1066 45.19% 21.67% 33.14%+0.31 -13.5 12
1969-03-29 @ Grevenmacher W 1-044.2 1066 1097 33.14% 21.67% 45.19%-0.31 +13.5 17
1969-03-29 Jeunesse Esch D 1-157.3 1402 1423 37.81% 21.69% 40.50%-0.11 +0.2 27
1969-03-29 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-157.3 1423 1402 40.50% 21.69% 37.81%+0.11 -0.2 32
1969-03-29 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-050.9 1230 1357 24.37% 21.44% 54.19%-0.94 +2.2 16
1969-03-29 @ Rumelange D 0-050.9 1357 1230 54.19% 21.44% 24.37%+0.94 -2.2 28
1969-03-29 US Dudelange L 0-237.6 1221 1299 30.14% 21.60% 48.26%-0.56 -18.4 16
1969-03-29 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-037.6 1299 1221 48.26% 21.60% 30.14%+0.56 +18.4 27
1969-04-12 US Dudelange W 3-249.4 1355 1317 46.00% 21.66% 32.34%+0.36 +9.2 30
1969-04-12 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-349.4 1317 1355 32.34% 21.66% 46.00%-0.36 -9.2 27
1969-04-12 Fola Esch W 2-030.7 1452 1124 72.11% 19.79% 8.10%+2.65 +5.6 34
1969-04-12 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-230.7 1124 1452 8.10% 19.79% 72.11%-2.65 -5.6 11
1969-04-12 Spora Luxembourg D 0-050.1 1084 1202 25.34% 21.48% 53.19%-0.87 +2.1 13
1969-04-12 @ Grevenmacher D 0-050.1 1202 1084 53.19% 21.48% 25.34%+0.87 -2.1 17
1969-04-12 Differdange 03 W 2-143.8 1423 1315 54.72% 21.45% 23.83%+0.92 +7.6 34
1969-04-12 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-243.8 1315 1423 23.83% 21.45% 54.72%-0.92 -7.6 23
1969-04-12 Union Luxembourg L 0-133.3 1079 1402 9.39% 20.01% 70.60%-2.49 -3.4 17
1969-04-12 @ Mondorf-les-Bains W 1-033.3 1402 1079 70.60% 20.01% 9.39%+2.49 +3.4 29
1969-04-12 Rumelange W 3-042.9 1075 1232 21.23% 21.30% 57.47%-1.18 +45.9 13
1969-04-12 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-342.9 1232 1075 57.47% 21.30% 21.23%+1.18 -45.9 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1968-11-17 9.90% @ Fola Esch 1146 2 Jeunesse Esch 1458 1
2 1969-03-16 11.76% Fola Esch 1121 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1375 1
3 1968-12-15 20.57% Mondorf-les-Bains 1129 3 @ Rumelange 1269 2
4 1968-12-15 20.92% @ US Dudelange 1291 2 Jeunesse Esch 1451 0
5 1968-11-17 20.99% Mondorf-les-Bains 1138 4 @ Differdange 03 1274 2
6 1968-10-13 21.14% Spora Luxembourg 1155 2 @ Rumelange 1290 1
7 1969-04-12 21.23% @ Progres Niedercorn 1075 3 Rumelange 1232 0
8 1968-12-29 22.51% @ Grevenmacher 1110 1 Rumelange 1254 0
9 1968-12-15 22.59% Grevenmacher 1079 2 @ Fola Esch 1199 0
10 1968-09-22 23.94% @ Avenir Beggen 1267 1 Jeunesse Esch 1398 0
11 1968-09-01 24.95% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 1182 3 Rumelange 1304 2
12 1968-10-26 25.52% Spora Luxembourg 1202 1 @ US Dudelange 1295 0
13 1968-09-01 25.80% @ Progres Niedercorn 1153 1 Spora Luxembourg 1267 0
14 1969-01-26 26.42% Avenir Beggen 1346 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 1431 1
15 1969-01-26 26.54% Progres Niedercorn 1042 5 @ Mondorf-les-Bains 1126 1
16 1969-03-29 27.03% Progres Niedercorn 1060 1 @ Fola Esch 1139 0
17 1968-10-13 27.21% Differdange 03 1276 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1355 1
18 1968-08-25 27.62% @ Spora Luxembourg 1253 2 Union Luxembourg 1352 1
19 1968-09-29 27.66% US Dudelange 1230 2 @ Differdange 03 1305 0
20 1968-08-25 28.76% Mondorf-les-Bains 1155 2 @ Fola Esch 1220 0
21 1969-02-01 29.13% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1338 2 Union Luxembourg 1425 1
22 1968-11-24 30.94% US Dudelange 1277 1 @ Avenir Beggen 1325 0
23 1968-09-28 31.23% Aris Bonnevoie 1341 1 @ Union Luxembourg 1387 0
24 1968-11-17 31.43% @ Rumelange 1269 3 Avenir Beggen 1337 2
25 1968-12-14 31.90% Avenir Beggen 1311 3 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1352 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-08-25 82.81 @ Differdange 03 7 1210 32.53% Grevenmacher 0 1270 45.82% 21.65%
2 1969-03-02 49.80 Differdange 03 6 1301 32.62% @ US Dudelange 1 1336 45.72% 21.66%
3 1968-09-22 48.39 @ Fola Esch 4 1164 33.06% Spora Luxembourg 0 1220 45.29% 21.65%
4 1969-04-12 45.93 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 1075 21.23% Rumelange 0 1232 57.47% 21.30%
5 1969-01-26 45.47 Progres Niedercorn 5 1042 26.54% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 1 1126 51.91% 21.54%
6 1968-09-08 38.29 Avenir Beggen 4 1218 44.50% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 1168 33.84% 21.66%
7 1968-10-13 34.80 Differdange 03 4 1276 27.21% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 1355 51.23% 21.56%
8 1968-11-24 33.86 Fola Esch 3 1165 37.71% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1163 40.60% 21.69%
9 1968-08-17 33.21 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1322 50.02% Fola Esch 0 1253 28.39% 21.59%
10 1968-12-15 31.80 @ US Dudelange 2 1291 20.92% Jeunesse Esch 0 1451 57.80% 21.28%
11 1968-10-19 31.30 @ Union Luxembourg 5 1369 45.31% Avenir Beggen 1 1336 33.03% 21.66%
12 1968-12-15 30.86 Grevenmacher 2 1079 22.59% @ Fola Esch 0 1199 56.00% 21.40%
13 1968-10-20 30.75 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 1171 42.38% Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1160 35.93% 21.69%
14 1968-10-26 30.46 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1414 42.81% Union Luxembourg 0 1400 35.51% 21.68%
15 1969-03-29 29.84 Avenir Beggen 7 1422 48.17% @ Differdange 03 2 1345 30.22% 21.61%
16 1968-09-29 28.18 US Dudelange 2 1230 27.66% @ Differdange 03 0 1305 50.77% 21.57%
17 1968-10-12 27.63 @ Avenir Beggen 4 1309 55.79% Grevenmacher 0 1191 22.80% 21.41%
18 1968-08-25 27.62 Mondorf-les-Bains 2 1155 28.76% @ Fola Esch 0 1220 49.65% 21.60%
19 1968-08-17 26.36 Union Luxembourg 4 1326 41.63% @ Grevenmacher 1 1296 36.69% 21.69%
20 1968-09-29 26.06 Avenir Beggen 3 1283 49.15% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1198 29.26% 21.59%
21 1968-09-15 25.58 @ Jeunesse Esch 9 1372 66.87% Progres Niedercorn 1 1130 12.52% 20.61%
22 1969-01-26 24.96 Avenir Beggen 3 1346 26.42% @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1431 52.04% 21.54%
23 1968-11-17 24.59 Mondorf-les-Bains 4 1138 20.99% @ Differdange 03 2 1274 57.69% 21.33%
24 1968-10-13 24.53 @ US Dudelange 6 1258 48.44% Fola Esch 2 1202 29.94% 21.62%
25 1968-12-28 23.68 @ Union Luxembourg 11 1406 66.58% Fola Esch 2 1168 12.78% 20.64%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-08-25 63.5 @ US Dudelange 4 1251 45.59% Avenir Beggen 4 1216 32.75% 21.66%
2 1968-09-15 60.9 @ Grevenmacher 3 1199 34.93% US Dudelange 3 1241 43.39% 21.67%
3 1969-01-26 60.8 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 1217 52.01% Fola Esch 3 1132 26.45% 21.54%
4 1969-03-16 60.8 @ Mondorf-les-Bains 3 1064 21.18% Spora Luxembourg 3 1222 57.52% 21.30%
5 1969-03-02 60.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 1088 35.68% Grevenmacher 3 1124 42.64% 21.68%
6 1969-03-29 57.3 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1402 37.81% Jeunesse Esch 1 1423 40.50% 21.69%
7 1969-01-25 56.0 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1427 52.87% US Dudelange 1 1334 25.62% 21.51%
8 1968-11-17 55.8 @ Fola Esch 2 1146 9.90% Jeunesse Esch 1 1458 69.99% 20.11%
9 1968-12-15 55.7 Mondorf-les-Bains 3 1129 20.57% @ Rumelange 2 1269 58.12% 21.30%
10 1969-01-18 54.8 @ Rumelange 1 1238 18.04% Union Luxembourg 1 1430 60.86% 21.10%
11 1969-03-16 54.7 Fola Esch 2 1121 11.76% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 1375 67.74% 20.50%
12 1968-09-01 54.6 @ Mondorf-les-Bains 3 1182 24.95% Rumelange 2 1304 53.59% 21.46%
13 1968-11-10 54.2 @ US Dudelange 1 1279 32.92% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1336 45.43% 21.65%
14 1968-10-13 53.8 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 1082 11.05% Union Luxembourg 1 1373 68.63% 20.32%
15 1969-01-26 53.7 @ Differdange 03 1 1302 49.13% Rumelange 1 1241 29.27% 21.61%
16 1969-01-26 53.7 @ Grevenmacher 1 1121 15.67% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1342 63.43% 20.90%
17 1968-09-08 53.6 @ Rumelange 1 1290 52.91% Grevenmacher 1 1198 25.58% 21.51%
18 1968-12-14 53.6 Avenir Beggen 3 1311 31.90% @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 1352 46.45% 21.65%
19 1968-11-17 53.5 @ US Dudelange 1 1280 63.20% Progres Niedercorn 1 1085 15.83% 20.97%
20 1969-03-02 53.3 @ Rumelange 1 1242 54.83% Fola Esch 1 1133 23.72% 21.45%
21 1968-10-26 53.2 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 1090 31.23% Fola Esch 1 1160 47.14% 21.63%
22 1968-11-17 53.2 @ Rumelange 3 1269 31.43% Avenir Beggen 2 1337 46.94% 21.63%
23 1968-11-17 53.0 Mondorf-les-Bains 4 1138 20.99% @ Differdange 03 2 1274 57.69% 21.33%
24 1968-09-01 52.9 @ Grevenmacher 4 1187 40.10% Fola Esch 3 1193 38.21% 21.69%
25 1969-02-01 51.9 @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 1338 29.13% Union Luxembourg 1 1425 49.29% 21.58%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-11-16 27.0 @ Union Luxembourg 5 1381 68.37% Grevenmacher 0 1117 11.21% 20.42%
2 1969-03-09 27.7 Avenir Beggen 5 1382 66.32% @ Grevenmacher 0 1124 13.06% 20.61%
3 1969-03-16 28.2 Differdange 03 4 1327 65.79% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 1077 13.54% 20.67%
4 1969-03-09 29.1 @ Union Luxembourg 6 1411 71.86% Progres Niedercorn 1 1088 8.30% 19.84%
5 1968-09-15 29.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 9 1372 66.87% Progres Niedercorn 1 1130 12.52% 20.61%
6 1969-03-09 30.4 Jeunesse Esch 2 1411 71.63% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1070 8.56% 19.82%
7 1969-03-01 30.6 @ Avenir Beggen 5 1371 69.99% Mondorf-les-Bains 1 1081 9.83% 20.18%
8 1969-03-16 30.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1417 71.38% Grevenmacher 0 1103 8.69% 19.93%
9 1968-12-29 30.7 @ Avenir Beggen 10 1323 68.34% Progres Niedercorn 3 1060 11.24% 20.42%
10 1969-04-12 30.7 @ Avenir Beggen 2 1452 72.11% Fola Esch 0 1124 8.10% 19.79%
11 1968-12-28 30.8 @ Union Luxembourg 11 1406 66.58% Fola Esch 2 1168 12.78% 20.64%
12 1968-09-29 31.1 Jeunesse Esch 3 1382 62.57% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 1171 16.46% 20.97%
13 1968-10-12 31.4 @ Avenir Beggen 4 1309 55.79% Grevenmacher 0 1191 22.80% 21.41%
14 1968-11-24 32.3 Differdange 03 3 1250 56.77% @ Grevenmacher 0 1099 21.89% 21.33%
15 1969-01-18 32.4 Jeunesse Esch 1 1428 73.78% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 1045 6.88% 19.35%
16 1968-08-24 33.0 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 1288 55.34% Progres Niedercorn 0 1175 23.23% 21.43%
17 1969-04-12 33.3 Union Luxembourg 1 1402 70.60% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1079 9.39% 20.01%
18 1968-08-17 33.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1322 50.02% Fola Esch 0 1253 28.39% 21.59%
19 1968-12-15 34.0 @ Spora Luxembourg 5 1220 58.05% Progres Niedercorn 1 1081 20.64% 21.31%
20 1968-11-10 34.1 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1370 65.19% Mondorf-les-Bains 1 1150 14.01% 20.79%
21 1968-10-13 34.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1398 65.72% Mondorf-les-Bains 1 1171 13.55% 20.74%
22 1968-11-09 34.4 Avenir Beggen 2 1324 58.31% @ Fola Esch 0 1159 20.44% 21.25%
23 1968-09-08 34.5 Avenir Beggen 4 1218 44.50% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 1168 33.84% 21.66%
24 1969-03-09 34.7 US Dudelange 2 1286 56.88% @ Fola Esch 0 1135 21.80% 21.33%
25 1968-09-29 34.9 Avenir Beggen 3 1283 49.15% @ Mondorf-les-Bains 0 1198 29.26% 21.59%