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1985-86 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Avenir Beggen

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Alliance Dudelange

6.55 points above expected

26 points · 19.45 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stade Dudelange

8.93 points below expected

2 points · 10.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 22 14 5 3 33 62 21 +41 30.75 +2.25
2 Jeunesse Esch 22 14 4 4 32 46 23 +23 27.55 +4.45
3 Spora Luxembourg 22 12 7 3 31 41 22 +19 25.71 +5.29
4 Grevenmacher 22 11 4 7 26 45 38 +7 23.94 +2.06
5 Alliance Dudelange 22 9 8 5 26 36 39 -3 19.45 +6.55
6 Union Luxembourg 22 10 3 9 23 49 35 +14 24.90 -1.90
7 Differdange 03 22 8 7 7 23 46 38 +8 23.10 -0.10
8 Olympique Eischen 22 8 4 10 20 39 41 -2 18.26 +1.74
9 Swift Hesperange 22 5 7 10 17 30 45 -15 20.54 -3.54
10 Progres Niedercorn 22 6 4 12 16 27 37 -10 20.86 -4.86
11 Aris Bonnevoie 22 6 3 13 15 40 50 -10 18.01 -3.01
12 Stade Dudelange 22 0 2 20 2 12 84 -72 10.93 -8.93

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Alliance Dudelange 26 19.45 +6.55
2 Spora Luxembourg 31 25.71 +5.29
3 Jeunesse Esch 32 27.55 +4.45
4 Avenir Beggen 33 30.75 +2.25
5 Grevenmacher 26 23.94 +2.06

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stade Dudelange 2 10.93 -8.93
2 Progres Niedercorn 16 20.86 -4.86
3 Swift Hesperange 17 20.54 -3.54
4 Aris Bonnevoie 15 18.01 -3.01
5 Union Luxembourg 23 24.90 -1.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aris Bonnevoie 2 Nov 17 – Dec 8 1 in 133
2 Avenir Beggen 6 Sep 8 – Oct 20 1 in 71
3 Grevenmacher 4 Sep 15 – Oct 13 1 in 48
4 Union Luxembourg 4 Sep 1 – Sep 29 1 in 36
5 Alliance Dudelange 4 Apr 13 – May 4 1 in 35

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union Luxembourg 4 Nov 9 – Dec 15 1 in 301
2 Stade Dudelange 15 Nov 3 – May 18 1 in 197
3 Progres Niedercorn 5 Dec 8 – Apr 6 1 in 101
4 Differdange 03 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 30
5 Grevenmacher 2 May 11 – May 18 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 13 Nov 17 – May 18 1 in 124
2 Differdange 03 6 Sep 29 – Nov 9 1 in 47
3 Jeunesse Esch 11 Oct 13 – Apr 13 1 in 43
4 Alliance Dudelange 6 Mar 23 – May 4 1 in 34
5 Grevenmacher 9 Sep 15 – Dec 8 1 in 32

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stade Dudelange 22 Sep 1 – May 18 1 in 40
2 Aris Bonnevoie 9 Sep 1 – Nov 9 1 in 29
3 Progres Niedercorn 7 Nov 9 – Apr 6 1 in 20
4 Union Luxembourg 4 Nov 9 – Dec 15 1 in 18
5 Differdange 03 5 Sep 1 – Oct 6 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Avenir Beggen 989 33 +2 8 7.2 +0.8
Jeunesse Esch 999 32 +50 8 7.2 +0.8
Spora Luxembourg 939 31 +26 8 6.7 +1.3
Alliance Dudelange 768 26 +22 6 5.1 +0.9
Grevenmacher 755 26 -116 3 6.2 -3.2
Differdange 03 849 23 -2 5 5.3 -0.3
Union Luxembourg 803 23 -6 4 4.2 -0.2
Olympique Eischen 747 20 +54 6 4.0 +2.0
Swift Hesperange 673 17 -42 2 3.5 -1.5
Progres Niedercorn 630 16 -25 4 4.2 -0.2
Aris Bonnevoie 701 15 +63 6 5.1 +0.9
Stade Dudelange 316 2 -27 0 1.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB AB D0 GRE JE OE PN SL SD SH UL
Alliance Dudelange —
1-1-0
2.47
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
2.16
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
1.60
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.83
0-2-0
2.03
2-0-0
4.33
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.07
Aris Bonnevoie
0-1-1
3.07
 —
1-0-1
0.78
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
2.37
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
2.33
0-0-2
1.98
1-1-0
3.46
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
1.35
Avenir Beggen
2-0-0
4.20
1-0-1
4.79
 —
1-1-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.44
0-1-1
3.16
1-1-0
4.43
1-0-1
4.37
1-1-0
3.58
2-0-0
4.89
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
3.24
Differdange 03
0-1-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.41
0-1-1
2.02
 —
1-1-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
3.48
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.27
2-0-0
4.31
0-1-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.73
Grevenmacher
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.17
0-1-1
2.09
0-1-1
3.23
 —
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
2.94
0-2-0
2.81
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.30
Jeunesse Esch
1-0-1
3.94
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.27
 —
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.66
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
4.87
1-1-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.16
Olympique Eischen
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.92
0-1-1
1.13
1-1-0
2.07
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.73
 —
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.14
2-0-0
3.61
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
2.06
Progres Niedercorn
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
3.21
1-0-1
1.20
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-2
3.07
 —
0-0-2
2.31
2-0-0
4.01
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.00
Spora Luxembourg
0-2-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
3.27
0-2-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.22
 —
2-0-0
4.84
1-1-0
3.83
2-0-0
2.89
Stade Dudelange
0-0-2
1.22
0-1-1
2.09
0-0-2
0.70
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
0.74
 —
0-1-1
1.60
0-0-2
1.32
Swift Hesperange
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
3.28
0-0-2
1.42
1-1-0
2.00
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.76
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
3.95
 —
0-1-1
2.55
Union Luxembourg
0-1-1
3.47
1-0-1
4.19
0-0-2
2.31
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
3.48
1-1-0
3.54
0-0-2
2.66
2-0-0
4.23
1-1-0
2.99
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +5.9
Allowed 0.88 -4.9
Differential 0.89 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%5.30%3.79%2.27%1.89%3.41%21.21%
15.30%10.61%6.06%4.55%1.14%3.03%30.68%
23.79%6.06%5.30%3.41%1.89%1.52%21.97%
32.27%4.55%3.41%1.52%0.38%0.38%12.50%
41.89%1.14%1.89%0.38%——5.30%
5+3.41%3.03%1.52%0.38%——8.33%
Total21.21%30.68%21.97%12.50%5.30%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.79 +0.00
SD 1.59 1.59 2.47
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%———4.55%18.18%
14.55%18.18%4.55%——4.55%31.82%
2—13.64%9.09%——4.55%27.27%
3—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
4———————
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total13.64%50.00%18.18%4.55%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.77 -0.14
SD 1.26 1.74 2.08
CV 0.77 0.98 —
Max 5 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
1—9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%—27.27%
2———9.09%4.55%—13.64%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
4———————
5+—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
Total9.09%22.73%22.73%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.27 -0.45
SD 1.79 1.35 2.60
CV 0.98 0.59 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
14.55%18.18%—4.55%——27.27%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+18.18%9.09%4.55%———31.82%
Total36.36%40.91%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 0.95 +1.86
SD 2.08 0.95 2.44
CV 0.74 1.00 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
14.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%—4.55%36.36%
24.55%—13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
3——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total27.27%9.09%40.91%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.73 +0.36
SD 1.54 1.39 2.24
CV 0.74 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%—9.09%27.27%
29.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%——36.36%
3——9.09%——4.55%13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total27.27%31.82%13.64%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.73 +0.32
SD 1.36 1.78 2.40
CV 0.67 1.03 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%————13.64%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
213.64%13.64%—9.09%——36.36%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total31.82%45.45%9.09%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.05 +1.05
SD 1.44 1.00 1.53
CV 0.69 0.96 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%——4.55%22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—9.09%—36.36%
2——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total13.64%31.82%31.82%4.55%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.86 -0.09
SD 1.60 1.39 2.39
CV 0.90 0.75 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%9.09%———40.91%
118.18%——4.55%—4.55%27.27%
2—4.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%31.82%18.18%4.55%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.68 -0.45
SD 1.77 1.73 2.22
CV 1.44 1.03 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
19.09%22.73%4.55%———36.36%
24.55%13.64%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
39.09%—4.55%———13.64%
49.09%—4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.00 +0.86
SD 1.21 1.02 1.64
CV 0.65 1.02 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%13.64%18.18%22.73%63.64%
1—4.55%—9.09%—9.09%22.73%
2———9.09%——9.09%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total—9.09%4.55%36.36%18.18%31.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 3.82 -3.27
SD 0.86 1.68 1.96
CV 1.57 0.44 —
Max 3 8 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%13.64%9.09%——45.45%
2——13.64%——9.09%22.73%
3—9.09%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%22.73%31.82%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.05 -0.68
SD 1.05 1.79 2.17
CV 0.77 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
1—4.55%22.73%——4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
3—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%————13.64%
Total13.64%36.36%36.36%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.59 +0.64
SD 1.90 1.14 2.52
CV 0.85 0.72 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 999 32 27.55 +4.45 91.0% 18 22 25 27 30 34 37
Avenir Beggen 989 33 30.75 +2.25 78.0% 24 26 28 31 33 35 37
Spora Luxembourg 939 31 25.71 +5.29 91.0% 16 20 22 26 28 32 36
Differdange 03 849 23 23.10 -0.10 58.0% 12 17 20 23 26 30 32
Union Luxembourg 803 23 24.90 -1.90 33.0% 15 20 23 25 27 30 32
Alliance Dudelange 768 26 19.45 +6.55 97.0% 11 13 17 19 22 26 28
Grevenmacher 755 26 23.94 +2.06 74.0% 10 18 22 24 27 30 33
Olympique Eischen 747 20 18.26 +1.74 69.0% 10 12 15 19 21 24 27
Aris Bonnevoie 701 15 18.01 -3.01 23.0% 8 13 16 18 20 24 29
Swift Hesperange 673 17 20.54 -3.54 19.0% 13 14 18 20 23 26 31
Progres Niedercorn 630 16 20.86 -4.86 12.0% 13 15 19 21 23 27 30
Stade Dudelange 316 2 10.93 -8.93 0.0% 4 7 9 11 13 15 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.45%
Strong Edge
49.24%21.97%28.79%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
072.08400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.48 goals
Neutral
-2+0.47+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Avenir Beggen, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.89 * Some Luck: 2.89 to 4.34 * Lucky: 4.34 to 5.78 * Wild Swing: 5.78 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.99 * Off: 1.99 to 2.65 * Way Off: 2.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.39 points
Lucky
03.619
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.664
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Alliance Dudelange
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Stade Dudelange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 185.09
2.12
Wide Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Lopsided
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.80
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.25
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.106
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Avenir Beggen56.00%26.00%10.00%6.00%2.00%———————
Jeunesse Esch20.00%23.00%26.00%14.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Spora Luxembourg11.00%15.00%15.00%17.00%14.00%9.00%9.00%3.00%4.00%3.00%——
Grevenmacher1.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%10.00%20.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%—
Alliance Dudelange—2.00%3.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%20.00%15.00%1.00%
Union Luxembourg4.00%12.00%12.00%26.00%18.00%13.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%———
Differdange 037.00%6.00%9.00%3.00%18.00%20.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Olympique Eischen——1.00%4.00%3.00%9.00%13.00%15.00%11.00%13.00%26.00%5.00%
Swift Hesperange—1.00%4.00%9.00%7.00%11.00%7.00%15.00%16.00%20.00%8.00%2.00%
Progres Niedercorn1.00%2.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%12.00%12.00%21.00%15.00%11.00%12.00%—
Aris Bonnevoie—1.00%2.00%1.00%3.00%7.00%7.00%8.00%18.00%25.00%23.00%5.00%
Stade Dudelange————————1.00%3.00%10.00%86.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Avenir Beggen 100% —
Spora Luxembourg 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 99.00% 1.00%
Differdange 03 97.00% 3.00%
Grevenmacher 97.00% 3.00%
Swift Hesperange 90.00% 10.00%
Progres Niedercorn 88.00% 12.00%
Alliance Dudelange 84.00% 16.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 72.00% 28.00%
Olympique Eischen 69.00% 31.00%
Stade Dudelange 4.00% 96.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1985-09-01 Alliance Dudelange L 0-147.9 745 674 59.62% 23.03% 17.35%+0.93 -29.3 0
1985-09-01 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 1-047.9 674 745 17.35% 23.03% 59.62%-0.93 +29.3 2
1985-09-01 Union Luxembourg L 1-349.3 812 772 56.73% 23.13% 20.13%+0.73 -45.5 0
1985-09-01 @ Differdange 03 W 3-149.3 772 812 20.13% 23.13% 56.73%-0.73 +45.5 2
1985-09-01 Avenir Beggen D 1-151.9 669 831 30.97% 23.19% 45.84%-0.58 +1.6 1
1985-09-01 @ Grevenmacher D 1-151.9 831 669 45.84% 23.19% 30.97%+0.58 -1.6 1
1985-09-01 Progres Niedercorn W 3-138.1 854 807 57.41% 23.11% 19.48%+0.77 +18.8 2
1985-09-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-338.1 807 854 19.48% 23.11% 57.41%-0.77 -18.8 0
1985-09-01 Olympique Eischen W 2-033.2 764 714 57.73% 23.10% 19.17%+0.79 +21.4 2
1985-09-01 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-233.2 714 764 19.17% 23.10% 57.73%-0.79 -21.4 0
1985-09-01 Swift Hesperange D 1-151.9 691 835 33.33% 23.23% 43.43%-0.47 +1.1 1
1985-09-01 @ Stade Dudelange D 1-151.9 835 691 43.43% 23.23% 33.33%+0.47 -1.1 1
1985-09-08 Jeunesse Esch W 3-146.3 704 873 30.02% 23.18% 46.81%-0.63 +38.1 4
1985-09-08 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-346.3 873 704 46.81% 23.18% 30.02%+0.63 -38.1 2
1985-09-08 Spora Luxembourg W 4-242.6 829 786 57.00% 23.12% 19.88%+0.75 +17.1 3
1985-09-08 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-442.6 786 829 19.88% 23.12% 57.00%-0.75 -17.1 2
1985-09-08 Differdange 03 W 4-246.7 692 767 43.06% 23.30% 33.64%-0.02 +26.2 2
1985-09-08 @ Olympique Eischen L 2-446.7 767 692 33.64% 23.30% 43.06%+0.02 -26.2 0
1985-09-08 Grevenmacher W 1-034.0 788 670 63.46% 22.82% 13.71%+1.23 +8.5 2
1985-09-08 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-134.0 670 788 13.71% 22.82% 63.46%-1.23 -8.5 1
1985-09-08 Stade Dudelange W 5-028.0 817 692 63.99% 22.79% 13.22%+1.27 +36.3 4
1985-09-08 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-528.0 692 817 13.22% 22.79% 63.99%-1.27 -36.2 1
1985-09-08 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-136.3 834 716 63.45% 22.82% 13.72%+1.23 +13.9 3
1985-09-08 @ Swift Hesperange L 1-336.3 716 834 13.72% 22.82% 63.45%-1.23 -13.9 0
1985-09-15 Avenir Beggen L 1-540.4 741 846 38.71% 23.29% 38.00%-0.22 -59.6 0
1985-09-15 @ Differdange 03 W 5-140.4 846 741 38.00% 23.29% 38.71%+0.22 +59.6 5
1985-09-15 Alliance Dudelange W 5-139.1 662 742 42.29% 23.30% 34.41%-0.05 +54.4 3
1985-09-15 @ Grevenmacher L 1-539.1 742 662 34.41% 23.30% 42.29%+0.05 -54.5 4
1985-09-15 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-152.0 835 702 64.54% 22.75% 12.72%+1.32 -6.2 3
1985-09-15 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-152.0 702 835 12.72% 22.75% 64.54%-1.32 +6.2 1
1985-09-15 Swift Hesperange W 3-139.4 853 848 53.02% 23.22% 23.75%+0.50 +22.2 6
1985-09-15 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-339.4 848 853 23.75% 23.22% 53.02%-0.50 -22.2 3
1985-09-15 Progres Niedercorn W 4-244.9 769 797 49.11% 23.28% 27.62%+0.29 +22.4 4
1985-09-15 @ Spora Luxembourg L 2-444.9 797 769 27.62% 23.28% 49.11%-0.29 -22.4 2
1985-09-15 Olympique Eischen L 1-345.7 656 718 44.65% 23.30% 32.05%+0.06 -36.6 1
1985-09-15 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-145.7 718 656 32.05% 23.30% 44.65%-0.06 +36.6 4
1985-09-29 Spora Luxembourg D 2-256.7 687 791 38.97% 23.29% 37.74%-0.21 -0.1 5
1985-09-29 @ Alliance Dudelange D 2-256.7 791 687 37.74% 23.29% 38.97%+0.21 +0.1 5
1985-09-29 Grevenmacher L 0-243.0 708 716 51.53% 23.25% 25.22%+0.42 -48.0 1
1985-09-29 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-043.0 716 708 25.22% 23.25% 51.53%-0.42 +48.0 5
1985-09-29 Stade Dudelange W 5-025.4 906 619 72.67% 21.65% 5.67%+2.32 +16.4 7
1985-09-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-525.4 619 906 5.67% 21.65% 72.67%-2.32 -16.4 1
1985-09-29 Union Luxembourg L 1-441.3 755 876 36.59% 23.27% 40.14%-0.31 -44.2 4
1985-09-29 @ Olympique Eischen W 4-141.3 876 755 40.14% 23.27% 36.59%+0.31 +44.2 8
1985-09-29 Differdange 03 D 0-048.6 774 681 61.52% 22.94% 15.54%+1.07 -6.0 3
1985-09-29 @ Progres Niedercorn D 0-048.6 681 774 15.54% 22.94% 61.52%-1.07 +6.0 1
1985-09-29 Jeunesse Esch D 0-048.5 826 829 52.04% 23.24% 24.72%+0.45 -3.4 4
1985-09-29 @ Swift Hesperange D 0-048.5 829 826 24.72% 23.24% 52.04%-0.45 +3.4 4
1985-10-06 Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.9 687 687 52.37% 23.23% 24.40%+0.46 -3.1 2
1985-10-06 @ Differdange 03 D 1-151.9 687 687 24.40% 23.23% 52.37%-0.46 +3.1 6
1985-10-06 Jeunesse Esch W 3-249.0 764 832 43.91% 23.30% 32.79%+0.02 +15.7 7
1985-10-06 @ Grevenmacher L 2-349.0 832 764 32.79% 23.30% 43.91%-0.02 -15.7 4
1985-10-06 Swift Hesperange L 0-141.4 711 822 37.87% 23.28% 38.85%-0.25 -19.7 4
1985-10-06 @ Olympique Eischen W 1-041.4 822 711 38.85% 23.28% 37.87%+0.25 +19.7 6
1985-10-06 Avenir Beggen L 1-249.9 920 922 52.14% 23.24% 24.62%+0.45 -24.2 8
1985-10-06 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-149.9 922 920 24.62% 23.24% 52.14%-0.45 +24.2 9
1985-10-06 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-029.2 791 660 64.39% 22.76% 12.85%+1.31 +22.0 7
1985-10-06 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-329.2 660 791 12.85% 22.76% 64.39%-1.31 -22.0 1
1985-10-06 Progres Niedercorn L 0-139.2 603 768 30.54% 23.19% 46.27%-0.60 -16.6 1
1985-10-06 @ Stade Dudelange W 1-039.2 768 603 46.27% 23.19% 30.54%+0.60 +16.6 5
1985-10-13 Stade Dudelange W 3-243.4 690 586 62.40% 22.89% 14.71%+1.14 +8.1 8
1985-10-13 @ Alliance Dudelange L 2-343.4 586 690 14.71% 22.89% 62.40%-1.14 -8.1 1
1985-10-13 Differdange 03 L 2-450.7 638 684 46.93% 23.29% 29.78%+0.17 -34.2 1
1985-10-13 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-250.7 684 638 29.78% 23.29% 46.93%-0.17 +34.2 4
1985-10-13 Olympique Eischen W 5-025.8 946 691 71.38% 21.92% 6.70%+2.11 +19.2 11
1985-10-13 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-525.8 691 946 6.70% 21.92% 71.38%-2.11 -19.2 4
1985-10-13 Swift Hesperange W 5-033.8 780 842 44.71% 23.30% 31.99%+0.06 +76.1 9
1985-10-13 @ Grevenmacher L 0-533.8 842 780 31.99% 23.30% 44.71%-0.06 -76.1 6
1985-10-13 Spora Luxembourg W 2-141.5 817 813 52.79% 23.23% 23.99%+0.49 +12.9 6
1985-10-13 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-241.5 813 817 23.99% 23.23% 52.79%-0.49 -12.9 7
1985-10-13 Union Luxembourg D 2-256.7 785 896 37.97% 23.28% 38.75%-0.25 +0.1 6
1985-10-13 @ Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.7 896 785 38.75% 23.28% 37.97%+0.25 -0.1 9
1985-10-20 Jeunesse Esch D 0-048.5 718 829 37.88% 23.28% 38.84%-0.25 +0.1 5
1985-10-20 @ Differdange 03 D 0-048.5 829 718 38.84% 23.28% 37.88%+0.25 -0.1 7
1985-10-20 Progres Niedercorn W 4-354.4 672 785 37.67% 23.28% 39.05%-0.26 +17.6 6
1985-10-20 @ Olympique Eischen L 3-454.4 785 672 39.05% 23.28% 37.67%+0.26 -17.6 6
1985-10-20 Alliance Dudelange D 0-048.8 896 698 68.54% 22.35% 9.10%+1.74 -8.1 10
1985-10-20 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-048.8 698 896 9.10% 22.35% 68.54%-1.74 +8.1 9
1985-10-20 Grevenmacher D 1-151.9 800 856 45.59% 23.30% 31.11%+0.11 -1.5 8
1985-10-20 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.9 856 800 31.11% 23.30% 45.59%-0.11 +1.5 10
1985-10-20 Aris Bonnevoie D 3-361.0 578 604 49.30% 23.27% 27.42%+0.30 -1.5 2
1985-10-20 @ Stade Dudelange D 3-361.0 604 578 27.42% 23.27% 49.30%-0.30 +1.5 2
1985-10-20 Avenir Beggen L 2-737.4 766 966 26.34% 23.08% 50.57%-0.82 -45.0 6
1985-10-20 @ Swift Hesperange W 7-237.4 966 766 50.57% 23.08% 26.34%+0.82 +45.0 13
1985-11-03 Olympique Eischen D 1-151.9 706 690 54.28% 23.20% 22.52%+0.58 -3.5 10
1985-11-03 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.9 690 706 22.52% 23.20% 54.28%-0.58 +3.5 7
1985-11-03 Union Luxembourg L 2-344.4 606 887 17.98% 22.72% 59.30%-1.35 -9.6 2
1985-11-03 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-244.4 887 606 59.30% 22.72% 17.98%+1.35 +9.6 12
1985-11-03 Differdange 03 D 2-256.8 857 718 64.99% 22.71% 12.30%+1.37 -4.7 11
1985-11-03 @ Grevenmacher D 2-256.8 718 857 12.30% 22.71% 64.99%-1.37 +4.7 6
1985-11-03 Stade Dudelange W 3-027.1 829 577 71.27% 21.94% 6.79%+2.10 +12.1 9
1985-11-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-327.1 577 829 6.79% 21.94% 71.27%-2.10 -12.1 2
1985-11-03 Avenir Beggen W 1-046.6 767 1011 21.58% 22.91% 55.51%-1.11 +27.2 8
1985-11-03 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-146.6 1011 767 55.51% 22.91% 21.58%+1.11 -27.2 13
1985-11-03 Swift Hesperange W 2-139.2 799 721 60.21% 23.00% 16.79%+0.97 +9.6 10
1985-11-03 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-239.2 721 799 16.79% 23.00% 60.21%-0.97 -9.6 6
1985-11-09 Alliance Dudelange W 6-025.9 983 703 72.43% 21.71% 5.86%+2.28 +20.1 15
1985-11-09 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-625.9 703 983 5.86% 21.71% 72.43%-2.28 -20.1 10
1985-11-09 Spora Luxembourg W 2-038.1 723 808 41.55% 23.30% 35.15%-0.09 +35.0 8
1985-11-09 @ Differdange 03 L 0-238.1 808 723 35.15% 23.30% 41.55%+0.09 -35.0 10
1985-11-09 Aris Bonnevoie W 5-028.7 693 596 61.81% 22.92% 15.27%+1.09 +41.2 9
1985-11-09 @ Olympique Eischen L 0-528.7 596 693 15.27% 22.92% 61.81%-1.09 -41.2 2
1985-11-09 Jeunesse Esch L 1-251.7 897 841 58.19% 23.08% 18.73%+0.82 -27.0 12
1985-11-09 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-151.7 841 897 18.73% 23.08% 58.19%-0.82 +26.9 11
1985-11-09 Grevenmacher L 0-429.4 564 853 17.41% 22.69% 59.91%-1.40 -37.2 2
1985-11-09 @ Stade Dudelange W 4-029.4 853 564 59.91% 22.69% 17.41%+1.40 +37.2 13
1985-11-09 Progres Niedercorn D 2-256.7 711 794 41.88% 23.30% 34.82%-0.07 -0.6 7
1985-11-09 @ Swift Hesperange D 2-256.7 794 711 34.82% 23.30% 41.88%+0.07 +0.5 9
1985-11-17 Progres Niedercorn D 0-048.5 683 795 37.77% 23.28% 38.94%-0.26 +0.1 11
1985-11-17 @ Alliance Dudelange D 0-048.5 795 683 38.94% 23.28% 37.77%+0.26 -0.1 10
1985-11-17 Avenir Beggen W 3-153.0 555 1004 7.70% 21.50% 70.80%-2.43 +56.9 4
1985-11-17 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-353.0 1004 555 70.80% 21.50% 7.70%+2.43 -56.9 15
1985-11-17 Swift Hesperange L 1-349.5 758 711 57.36% 23.11% 19.52%+0.77 -46.0 8
1985-11-17 @ Differdange 03 W 3-149.5 711 758 19.52% 23.11% 57.36%-0.77 +46.0 9
1985-11-17 Union Luxembourg W 2-140.9 890 870 54.59% 23.19% 22.22%+0.59 +12.1 15
1985-11-17 @ Grevenmacher L 1-240.9 870 890 22.22% 23.19% 54.59%-0.59 -12.1 12
1985-11-17 Olympique Eischen W 4-240.3 868 734 64.64% 22.74% 12.62%+1.33 +11.5 13
1985-11-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-440.3 734 868 12.62% 22.74% 64.64%-1.33 -11.5 9
1985-11-17 Stade Dudelange W 3-027.2 773 527 70.97% 21.99% 7.04%+2.06 +12.5 12
1985-11-17 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-327.2 527 773 7.04% 21.99% 70.97%-2.06 -12.5 2
1985-11-24 Spora Luxembourg L 2-357.0 858 786 59.71% 23.03% 17.26%+0.93 -26.2 12
1985-11-24 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-257.0 786 858 17.26% 23.03% 59.71%-0.93 +26.2 14
1985-12-08 Jeunesse Esch D 1-151.9 947 880 59.23% 23.05% 17.73%+0.90 -4.8 16
1985-12-08 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-151.9 880 947 17.73% 23.05% 59.23%-0.90 +4.8 14
1985-12-08 Grevenmacher L 0-236.1 723 902 28.79% 23.15% 48.06%-0.69 -29.9 9
1985-12-08 @ Olympique Eischen W 2-036.1 902 723 48.06% 23.15% 28.79%+0.69 +29.9 17
1985-12-08 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-548.8 795 612 67.75% 22.45% 9.80%+1.65 -99.8 10
1985-12-08 @ Progres Niedercorn W 5-148.8 612 795 9.80% 22.45% 67.75%-1.65 +99.8 6
1985-12-08 Differdange 03 L 0-532.2 515 712 26.65% 23.09% 50.25%-0.81 -65.6 2
1985-12-08 @ Stade Dudelange W 5-032.2 712 515 50.25% 23.09% 26.65%+0.81 +65.6 10
1985-12-08 Alliance Dudelange D 2-256.7 757 683 59.86% 23.02% 17.12%+0.94 -3.7 10
1985-12-08 @ Swift Hesperange D 2-256.7 683 757 17.12% 23.02% 59.86%-0.94 +3.7 12
1985-12-15 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-151.9 687 712 49.46% 23.27% 27.26%+0.30 -2.4 13
1985-12-15 @ Alliance Dudelange D 1-151.9 712 687 27.26% 23.27% 49.46%-0.30 +2.4 7
1985-12-15 Grevenmacher W 5-135.7 942 932 53.52% 23.21% 23.26%+0.53 +39.8 18
1985-12-15 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-535.7 932 942 23.26% 23.21% 53.52%-0.53 -39.8 17
1985-12-15 Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.9 693 812 36.78% 23.27% 39.95%-0.30 +0.3 10
1985-12-15 @ Olympique Eischen D 1-151.9 812 693 39.95% 23.27% 36.78%+0.30 -0.3 15
1985-12-15 Jeunesse Esch L 0-138.3 695 885 27.55% 23.12% 49.34%-0.76 -15.3 10
1985-12-15 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-038.3 885 695 49.34% 23.12% 27.55%+0.76 +15.3 16
1985-12-15 Differdange 03 L 1-546.1 832 777 58.07% 23.09% 18.84%+0.82 -85.0 12
1985-12-15 @ Union Luxembourg W 5-146.1 777 832 18.84% 23.09% 58.07%-0.82 +85.0 12
1985-12-15 Stade Dudelange W 4-025.4 753 449 73.33% 21.50% 5.17%+2.43 +12.1 12
1985-12-15 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-425.4 449 753 5.17% 21.50% 73.33%-2.43 -12.1 2
1985-12-22 Swift Hesperange W 5-243.0 714 765 46.16% 23.30% 30.54%+0.13 +33.3 9
1985-12-22 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-543.0 765 714 30.54% 23.30% 46.16%-0.13 -33.3 12
1985-12-22 Olympique Eischen D 2-256.9 862 693 66.94% 22.54% 10.53%+1.56 -5.1 13
1985-12-22 @ Differdange 03 D 2-256.9 693 862 10.53% 22.54% 66.94%-1.56 +5.1 11
1985-12-22 Progres Niedercorn W 1-032.3 892 680 69.34% 22.25% 8.41%+1.84 +5.4 19
1985-12-22 @ Grevenmacher L 0-132.3 680 892 8.41% 22.25% 69.34%-1.84 -5.4 10
1985-12-22 Alliance Dudelange W 6-233.5 900 684 69.52% 22.22% 8.26%+1.86 +13.5 18
1985-12-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-633.5 684 900 8.26% 22.22% 69.52%-1.86 -13.5 13
1985-12-22 Avenir Beggen D 1-151.9 812 982 29.95% 23.17% 46.87%-0.63 +1.8 16
1985-12-22 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.9 982 812 46.87% 23.17% 29.95%+0.63 -1.8 19
1985-12-22 Union Luxembourg L 1-731.7 437 747 15.66% 22.56% 61.78%-1.54 -41.0 2
1985-12-22 @ Stade Dudelange W 7-131.7 747 437 61.78% 22.56% 15.66%+1.54 +40.9 14
1986-03-23 Grevenmacher W 5-355.3 671 898 23.31% 22.98% 53.70%-1.00 +36.4 15
1986-03-23 @ Alliance Dudelange L 3-555.3 898 671 53.70% 22.98% 23.31%+1.00 -36.4 19
1986-03-23 Jeunesse Esch L 1-341.4 747 913 30.45% 23.18% 46.36%-0.61 -27.1 9
1986-03-23 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-141.4 913 747 46.36% 23.18% 30.45%+0.61 +27.1 20
1986-03-23 Differdange 03 D 3-361.2 980 857 63.80% 22.80% 13.40%+1.26 -3.7 20
1986-03-23 @ Avenir Beggen D 3-361.2 857 980 13.40% 22.80% 63.80%-1.26 +3.7 14
1986-03-23 Stade Dudelange W 4-025.4 698 396 73.26% 21.52% 5.23%+2.42 +12.2 13
1986-03-23 @ Olympique Eischen L 0-425.4 396 698 5.23% 21.52% 73.26%-2.42 -12.2 2
1986-03-23 Spora Luxembourg L 0-140.3 674 814 34.03% 23.24% 42.73%-0.43 -18.1 10
1986-03-23 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-040.3 814 674 42.73% 23.24% 34.03%+0.43 +18.1 18
1986-03-23 Union Luxembourg D 1-151.9 732 788 45.59% 23.30% 31.11%+0.11 -1.5 13
1986-03-23 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-151.9 788 732 31.11% 23.30% 45.59%-0.11 +1.5 15
1986-04-06 Progres Niedercorn W 1-032.4 861 656 68.95% 22.30% 8.75%+1.79 +5.6 16
1986-04-06 @ Differdange 03 L 0-132.4 656 861 8.75% 22.30% 68.95%-1.79 -5.6 10
1986-04-06 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-137.8 861 720 65.10% 22.70% 12.20%+1.38 +7.2 21
1986-04-06 @ Grevenmacher L 1-237.8 720 861 12.20% 22.70% 65.10%-1.38 -7.2 9
1986-04-06 Swift Hesperange W 2-029.8 941 730 69.23% 22.26% 8.51%+1.82 +10.3 22
1986-04-06 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-229.8 730 941 8.51% 22.26% 69.23%-1.82 -10.3 13
1986-04-06 Olympique Eischen W 2-139.2 789 710 60.29% 23.00% 16.71%+0.97 +9.5 17
1986-04-06 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-239.2 710 789 16.71% 23.00% 60.29%-0.97 -9.5 13
1986-04-06 Alliance Dudelange D 1-152.0 832 707 63.94% 22.79% 13.27%+1.27 -6.0 19
1986-04-06 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-152.0 707 832 13.27% 22.79% 63.94%-1.27 +6.0 16
1986-04-06 Avenir Beggen L 0-524.3 384 976 3.61% 20.01% 76.38%-3.36 -10.2 2
1986-04-06 @ Stade Dudelange W 5-024.3 976 384 76.38% 20.01% 3.61%+3.36 +10.2 22
1986-04-13 Differdange 03 W 2-147.7 713 867 32.09% 23.21% 44.69%-0.53 +21.2 18
1986-04-13 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-247.7 867 713 44.69% 23.21% 32.09%+0.53 -21.2 16
1986-04-13 Spora Luxembourg L 0-435.7 713 826 37.72% 23.28% 39.00%-0.26 -70.1 9
1986-04-13 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-035.7 826 713 39.00% 23.28% 37.72%+0.26 +70.1 21
1986-04-13 Union Luxembourg W 1-032.7 986 799 68.02% 22.42% 9.56%+1.68 +6.1 24
1986-04-13 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-132.7 799 986 9.56% 22.42% 68.02%-1.68 -6.1 17
1986-04-13 Grevenmacher W 3-137.1 951 868 60.62% 22.98% 16.39%+1.00 +16.2 24
1986-04-13 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-337.1 868 951 16.39% 22.98% 60.62%-1.00 -16.2 21
1986-04-13 Stade Dudelange W 8-128.3 651 374 72.29% 21.74% 5.97%+2.26 +19.5 12
1986-04-13 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-828.3 374 651 5.97% 21.74% 72.29%-2.26 -19.5 2
1986-04-13 Olympique Eischen W 1-036.7 720 701 54.52% 23.19% 22.29%+0.59 +12.9 15
1986-04-13 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-136.7 701 720 22.29% 23.19% 54.52%-0.59 -12.9 13
1986-04-20 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-241.5 846 643 68.84% 22.32% 8.84%+1.78 +5.1 18
1986-04-20 @ Differdange 03 L 2-341.5 643 846 8.84% 22.32% 68.84%-1.78 -5.1 9
1986-04-20 Avenir Beggen D 1-152.1 688 993 16.07% 22.59% 61.34%-1.50 +5.2 14
1986-04-20 @ Olympique Eischen D 1-152.1 993 688 61.34% 22.59% 16.07%+1.50 -5.2 25
1986-04-20 Progres Niedercorn W 2-031.4 793 670 63.79% 22.80% 13.41%+1.26 +15.7 19
1986-04-20 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-231.4 670 793 13.41% 22.80% 63.79%-1.26 -15.7 12
1986-04-20 Jeunesse Esch W 1-040.0 896 967 43.49% 23.30% 33.21%+0.00 +17.8 23
1986-04-20 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-140.0 967 896 33.21% 23.30% 43.49%+0.00 -17.8 24
1986-04-20 Alliance Dudelange L 1-335.2 354 734 10.97% 22.07% 66.96%-1.99 -11.2 2
1986-04-20 @ Stade Dudelange W 3-135.2 734 354 66.96% 22.07% 10.97%+1.99 +11.2 20
1986-04-20 Grevenmacher L 1-245.3 733 852 36.80% 23.27% 39.93%-0.30 -18.1 15
1986-04-20 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-145.3 852 733 39.93% 23.27% 36.80%+0.30 +18.1 23
1986-04-27 Union Luxembourg W 2-143.9 746 808 44.65% 23.30% 32.05%+0.06 +16.3 22
1986-04-27 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-243.9 808 746 32.05% 23.30% 44.65%-0.06 -16.3 19
1986-04-27 Stade Dudelange W 3-026.6 638 343 72.99% 21.58% 5.43%+2.37 +9.7 11
1986-04-27 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-326.6 343 638 5.43% 21.58% 72.99%-2.37 -9.7 2
1986-04-27 Swift Hesperange W 3-026.9 987 715 72.10% 21.78% 6.12%+2.23 +10.9 27
1986-04-27 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-326.9 715 987 6.12% 21.78% 72.10%-2.23 -11.0 15
1986-04-27 Spora Luxembourg D 0-048.5 870 914 47.18% 23.29% 29.53%+0.19 -2.1 24
1986-04-27 @ Grevenmacher D 0-048.5 914 870 29.53% 23.29% 47.18%-0.19 +2.1 24
1986-04-27 Differdange 03 W 2-138.7 949 851 61.96% 22.91% 15.12%+1.10 +8.7 26
1986-04-27 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-238.7 851 949 15.12% 22.91% 61.96%-1.10 -8.7 18
1986-04-27 Olympique Eischen L 0-144.4 654 693 47.75% 23.29% 28.96%+0.21 -23.8 12
1986-04-27 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-044.4 693 654 28.96% 23.29% 47.75%-0.21 +23.8 16
1986-05-04 Progres Niedercorn W 2-027.9 998 631 75.42% 20.89% 3.69%+2.84 +4.5 29
1986-05-04 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-227.9 631 998 3.69% 20.89% 75.42%-2.84 -4.6 12
1986-05-04 Grevenmacher W 3-247.4 842 868 49.31% 23.27% 27.41%+0.30 +13.6 20
1986-05-04 @ Differdange 03 L 2-347.4 868 842 27.41% 23.27% 49.31%-0.30 -13.6 24
1986-05-04 Alliance Dudelange L 1-248.4 717 762 46.99% 23.29% 29.72%+0.18 -22.1 16
1986-05-04 @ Olympique Eischen W 2-148.4 762 717 29.72% 23.29% 46.99%-0.18 +22.1 24
1986-05-04 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-344.9 792 648 65.34% 22.68% 11.98%+1.40 -88.2 19
1986-05-04 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-044.9 648 792 11.98% 22.68% 65.34%-1.40 +88.2 13
1986-05-04 Jeunesse Esch L 0-227.3 333 958 3.04% 19.63% 77.32%-3.57 -3.6 2
1986-05-04 @ Stade Dudelange W 2-027.3 958 333 77.32% 19.63% 3.04%+3.57 +3.6 28
1986-05-04 Spora Luxembourg D 1-151.9 704 916 24.97% 23.04% 51.99%-0.90 +3.0 16
1986-05-04 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-151.9 916 704 51.99% 23.04% 24.97%+0.90 -3.0 25
1986-05-07 Avenir Beggen L 1-241.5 784 1003 24.17% 23.02% 52.81%-0.95 -12.9 24
1986-05-07 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-141.5 1003 784 52.81% 23.02% 24.17%+0.95 +13.0 31
1986-05-07 Olympique Eischen L 1-447.3 736 695 56.75% 23.13% 20.12%+0.73 -64.4 13
1986-05-07 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-147.3 695 736 20.12% 23.13% 56.75%-0.73 +64.4 18
1986-05-07 Stade Dudelange W 3-238.4 854 330 79.30% 19.10% 1.60%+3.86 +0.9 26
1986-05-07 @ Grevenmacher L 2-338.4 330 854 1.60% 19.10% 79.30%-3.86 -0.9 2
1986-05-07 Union Luxembourg L 2-360.2 962 704 71.49% 21.90% 6.61%+2.13 -31.7 28
1986-05-07 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-260.2 704 962 6.61% 21.90% 71.49%-2.13 +31.7 21
1986-05-07 Swift Hesperange W 2-144.6 626 707 42.21% 23.30% 34.49%-0.06 +17.2 14
1986-05-07 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-244.6 707 626 34.49% 23.30% 42.21%+0.06 -17.2 16
1986-05-07 Differdange 03 W 2-139.8 913 856 58.33% 23.08% 18.59%+0.83 +10.4 27
1986-05-07 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-239.8 856 913 18.59% 23.08% 58.33%-0.83 -10.4 20
1986-05-11 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-028.1 1016 671 74.71% 21.12% 4.18%+2.69 +5.2 33
1986-05-11 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-228.1 671 1016 4.18% 21.12% 74.71%-2.69 -5.2 13
1986-05-11 Jeunesse Esch L 1-439.2 759 930 29.87% 23.17% 46.95%-0.64 -37.7 18
1986-05-11 @ Olympique Eischen W 4-139.2 930 759 46.95% 23.17% 29.87%+0.64 +37.7 30
1986-05-11 Alliance Dudelange W 1-042.4 643 771 35.61% 23.26% 41.13%-0.36 +21.0 16
1986-05-11 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-142.4 771 643 41.13% 23.26% 35.61%+0.36 -21.0 24
1986-05-11 Grevenmacher W 6-139.8 735 855 36.69% 23.27% 40.04%-0.31 +75.0 23
1986-05-11 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-639.8 855 735 40.04% 23.27% 36.69%+0.31 -75.0 26
1986-05-11 Spora Luxembourg L 0-424.5 329 923 3.57% 19.99% 76.44%-3.37 -8.2 2
1986-05-11 @ Stade Dudelange W 4-024.5 923 329 76.44% 19.99% 3.57%+3.37 +8.1 29
1986-05-11 Differdange 03 D 2-256.7 690 845 31.84% 23.21% 44.95%-0.54 +1.0 17
1986-05-11 @ Swift Hesperange D 2-256.7 845 690 44.95% 23.21% 31.84%+0.54 -1.0 21
1986-05-18 Swift Hesperange W 3-137.7 750 691 58.54% 23.07% 18.39%+0.85 +17.9 26
1986-05-18 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-337.7 691 750 18.39% 23.07% 58.54%-0.85 -17.9 17
1986-05-18 Progres Niedercorn W 6-238.6 666 664 52.61% 23.23% 24.16%+0.48 +34.9 15
1986-05-18 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 2-638.6 664 666 24.16% 23.23% 52.61%-0.48 -34.9 16
1986-05-18 Stade Dudelange W 5-023.5 844 321 79.27% 19.11% 1.61%+3.85 +4.5 23
1986-05-18 @ Differdange 03 L 0-523.5 321 844 1.61% 19.11% 79.27%-3.85 -4.5 2
1986-05-18 Olympique Eischen L 2-356.6 780 722 58.48% 23.07% 18.44%+0.85 -25.7 26
1986-05-18 @ Grevenmacher W 3-256.6 722 780 18.44% 23.07% 58.48%-0.85 +25.7 20
1986-05-18 Avenir Beggen W 2-036.8 968 1021 45.91% 23.30% 30.79%+0.12 +31.6 32
1986-05-18 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-236.8 1021 968 30.79% 23.30% 45.91%-0.12 -31.6 33
1986-05-18 Union Luxembourg W 2-138.2 931 810 63.67% 22.81% 13.52%+1.25 +7.9 31
1986-05-18 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-238.2 810 931 13.52% 22.81% 63.67%-1.25 -7.9 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-05-07 6.61% Union Luxembourg 704 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 962 2
2 1985-11-17 7.70% @ Aris Bonnevoie 555 3 Avenir Beggen 1004 1
3 1985-12-08 9.80% Aris Bonnevoie 612 5 @ Progres Niedercorn 795 1
4 1986-05-04 11.98% Aris Bonnevoie 648 3 @ Union Luxembourg 792 0
5 1985-11-24 17.26% Spora Luxembourg 786 3 @ Union Luxembourg 858 2
6 1985-09-01 17.35% Alliance Dudelange 674 1 @ Aris Bonnevoie 745 0
7 1986-05-18 18.44% Olympique Eischen 722 3 @ Grevenmacher 780 2
8 1985-11-09 18.73% Jeunesse Esch 841 2 @ Union Luxembourg 897 1
9 1985-12-15 18.84% Differdange 03 777 5 @ Union Luxembourg 832 1
10 1985-11-17 19.52% Swift Hesperange 711 3 @ Differdange 03 758 1
11 1986-05-07 20.12% Olympique Eischen 695 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 736 1
12 1985-09-01 20.13% Union Luxembourg 772 3 @ Differdange 03 812 1
13 1985-11-03 21.58% @ Progres Niedercorn 767 1 Avenir Beggen 1011 0
14 1986-03-23 23.31% @ Alliance Dudelange 671 5 Grevenmacher 898 3
15 1985-10-06 24.62% Avenir Beggen 922 2 @ Union Luxembourg 920 1
16 1985-09-29 25.22% Grevenmacher 716 2 @ Aris Bonnevoie 708 0
17 1986-04-27 28.96% Olympique Eischen 693 1 @ Progres Niedercorn 654 0
18 1986-05-04 29.72% Alliance Dudelange 762 2 @ Olympique Eischen 717 1
19 1985-10-13 29.78% Differdange 03 684 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 638 2
20 1985-09-08 30.02% @ Alliance Dudelange 704 3 Jeunesse Esch 873 1
21 1985-09-15 32.05% Olympique Eischen 718 3 @ Stade Dudelange 656 1
22 1986-04-13 32.09% @ Alliance Dudelange 713 2 Differdange 03 867 1
23 1986-05-11 35.61% @ Progres Niedercorn 643 1 Alliance Dudelange 771 0
24 1986-05-11 36.69% @ Union Luxembourg 735 6 Grevenmacher 855 1
25 1985-10-20 37.67% @ Olympique Eischen 672 4 Progres Niedercorn 785 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1985-12-08 99.75 Aris Bonnevoie 5 612 9.80% @ Progres Niedercorn 1 795 67.75% 22.45%
2 1986-05-04 88.17 Aris Bonnevoie 3 648 11.98% @ Union Luxembourg 0 792 65.34% 22.68%
3 1985-12-15 85.03 Differdange 03 5 777 18.84% @ Union Luxembourg 1 832 58.07% 23.09%
4 1985-10-13 76.08 @ Grevenmacher 5 780 44.71% Swift Hesperange 0 842 31.99% 23.30%
5 1986-05-11 74.97 @ Union Luxembourg 6 735 36.69% Grevenmacher 1 855 40.04% 23.27%
6 1986-04-13 70.14 Spora Luxembourg 4 826 39.00% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 713 37.72% 23.28%
7 1985-12-08 65.64 Differdange 03 5 712 50.25% @ Stade Dudelange 0 515 26.65% 23.09%
8 1986-05-07 64.40 Olympique Eischen 4 695 20.12% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 736 56.75% 23.13%
9 1985-09-15 59.63 Avenir Beggen 5 846 38.00% @ Differdange 03 1 741 38.71% 23.29%
10 1985-11-17 56.85 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 555 7.70% Avenir Beggen 1 1004 70.80% 21.50%
11 1985-09-15 54.45 @ Grevenmacher 5 662 42.29% Alliance Dudelange 1 742 34.41% 23.30%
12 1985-09-29 47.99 Grevenmacher 2 716 25.22% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 708 51.53% 23.25%
13 1985-11-17 46.02 Swift Hesperange 3 711 19.52% @ Differdange 03 1 758 57.36% 23.11%
14 1985-09-01 45.52 Union Luxembourg 3 772 20.13% @ Differdange 03 1 812 56.73% 23.13%
15 1985-10-20 45.04 Avenir Beggen 7 966 50.57% @ Swift Hesperange 2 766 26.34% 23.08%
16 1985-09-29 44.22 Union Luxembourg 4 876 40.14% @ Olympique Eischen 1 755 36.59% 23.27%
17 1985-11-09 41.18 @ Olympique Eischen 5 693 61.81% Aris Bonnevoie 0 596 15.27% 22.92%
18 1985-12-22 40.95 Union Luxembourg 7 747 61.78% @ Stade Dudelange 1 437 15.66% 22.56%
19 1985-12-15 39.82 @ Avenir Beggen 5 942 53.52% Grevenmacher 1 932 23.26% 23.21%
20 1985-09-08 38.11 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 704 30.02% Jeunesse Esch 1 873 46.81% 23.18%
21 1986-05-11 37.70 Jeunesse Esch 4 930 46.95% @ Olympique Eischen 1 759 29.87% 23.17%
22 1985-11-09 37.19 Grevenmacher 4 853 59.91% @ Stade Dudelange 0 564 17.41% 22.69%
23 1985-09-15 36.65 Olympique Eischen 3 718 32.05% @ Stade Dudelange 1 656 44.65% 23.30%
24 1986-03-23 36.42 @ Alliance Dudelange 5 671 23.31% Grevenmacher 3 898 53.70% 22.98%
25 1985-09-08 36.26 @ Union Luxembourg 5 817 63.99% Stade Dudelange 0 692 13.22% 22.79%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-03-23 61.2 @ Avenir Beggen 3 980 63.80% Differdange 03 3 857 13.40% 22.80%
2 1985-10-20 61.0 @ Stade Dudelange 3 578 49.30% Aris Bonnevoie 3 604 27.42% 23.27%
3 1986-05-07 60.2 Union Luxembourg 3 704 6.61% @ Jeunesse Esch 2 962 71.49% 21.90%
4 1985-11-24 57.0 Spora Luxembourg 3 786 17.26% @ Union Luxembourg 2 858 59.71% 23.03%
5 1985-12-22 56.9 @ Differdange 03 2 862 66.94% Olympique Eischen 2 693 10.53% 22.54%
6 1985-11-03 56.8 @ Grevenmacher 2 857 64.99% Differdange 03 2 718 12.30% 22.71%
7 1985-09-29 56.7 @ Alliance Dudelange 2 687 38.97% Spora Luxembourg 2 791 37.74% 23.29%
8 1985-10-13 56.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 2 785 37.97% Union Luxembourg 2 896 38.75% 23.28%
9 1985-11-09 56.7 @ Swift Hesperange 2 711 41.88% Progres Niedercorn 2 794 34.82% 23.30%
10 1985-12-08 56.7 @ Swift Hesperange 2 757 59.86% Alliance Dudelange 2 683 17.12% 23.02%
11 1986-05-11 56.7 @ Swift Hesperange 2 690 31.84% Differdange 03 2 845 44.95% 23.21%
12 1986-05-18 56.6 Olympique Eischen 3 722 18.44% @ Grevenmacher 2 780 58.48% 23.07%
13 1986-03-23 55.3 @ Alliance Dudelange 5 671 23.31% Grevenmacher 3 898 53.70% 22.98%
14 1985-10-20 54.4 @ Olympique Eischen 4 672 37.67% Progres Niedercorn 3 785 39.05% 23.28%
15 1985-11-17 53.0 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 555 7.70% Avenir Beggen 1 1004 70.80% 21.50%
16 1986-04-20 52.1 @ Olympique Eischen 1 688 16.07% Avenir Beggen 1 993 61.34% 22.59%
17 1985-09-15 52.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 835 64.54% Aris Bonnevoie 1 702 12.72% 22.75%
18 1986-04-06 52.0 @ Spora Luxembourg 1 832 63.94% Alliance Dudelange 1 707 13.27% 22.79%
19 1985-09-01 51.9 @ Grevenmacher 1 669 30.97% Avenir Beggen 1 831 45.84% 23.19%
20 1985-09-01 51.9 @ Stade Dudelange 1 691 33.33% Swift Hesperange 1 835 43.43% 23.23%
21 1985-10-06 51.9 @ Differdange 03 1 687 52.37% Alliance Dudelange 1 687 24.40% 23.23%
22 1985-10-20 51.9 @ Spora Luxembourg 1 800 45.59% Grevenmacher 1 856 31.11% 23.30%
23 1985-11-03 51.9 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 706 54.28% Olympique Eischen 1 690 22.52% 23.20%
24 1985-12-08 51.9 @ Avenir Beggen 1 947 59.23% Jeunesse Esch 1 880 17.73% 23.05%
25 1985-12-15 51.9 @ Alliance Dudelange 1 687 49.46% Aris Bonnevoie 1 712 27.26% 23.27%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-05-18 23.5 @ Differdange 03 5 844 79.27% Stade Dudelange 0 321 1.61% 19.11%
2 1986-04-06 24.3 Avenir Beggen 5 976 76.38% @ Stade Dudelange 0 384 3.61% 20.01%
3 1986-05-11 24.5 Spora Luxembourg 4 923 76.44% @ Stade Dudelange 0 329 3.57% 19.99%
4 1985-09-29 25.4 @ Avenir Beggen 5 906 72.67% Stade Dudelange 0 619 5.67% 21.65%
5 1985-12-15 25.4 @ Swift Hesperange 4 753 73.33% Stade Dudelange 0 449 5.17% 21.50%
6 1986-03-23 25.4 @ Olympique Eischen 4 698 73.26% Stade Dudelange 0 396 5.23% 21.52%
7 1985-10-13 25.8 @ Avenir Beggen 5 946 71.38% Olympique Eischen 0 691 6.70% 21.92%
8 1985-11-09 25.9 @ Avenir Beggen 6 983 72.43% Alliance Dudelange 0 703 5.86% 21.71%
9 1986-04-27 26.6 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 638 72.99% Stade Dudelange 0 343 5.43% 21.58%
10 1986-04-27 26.9 @ Avenir Beggen 3 987 72.10% Swift Hesperange 0 715 6.12% 21.78%
11 1985-11-03 27.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 829 71.27% Stade Dudelange 0 577 6.79% 21.94%
12 1985-11-17 27.2 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 773 70.97% Stade Dudelange 0 527 7.04% 21.99%
13 1986-05-04 27.3 Jeunesse Esch 2 958 77.32% @ Stade Dudelange 0 333 3.04% 19.63%
14 1986-05-04 27.9 @ Avenir Beggen 2 998 75.42% Progres Niedercorn 0 631 3.69% 20.89%
15 1985-09-08 28.0 @ Union Luxembourg 5 817 63.99% Stade Dudelange 0 692 13.22% 22.79%
16 1986-05-11 28.1 @ Avenir Beggen 2 1016 74.71% Aris Bonnevoie 0 671 4.18% 21.12%
17 1986-04-13 28.3 @ Progres Niedercorn 8 651 72.29% Stade Dudelange 1 374 5.97% 21.74%
18 1985-11-09 28.7 @ Olympique Eischen 5 693 61.81% Aris Bonnevoie 0 596 15.27% 22.92%
19 1985-10-06 29.2 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 791 64.39% Aris Bonnevoie 0 660 12.85% 22.76%
20 1985-11-09 29.4 Grevenmacher 4 853 59.91% @ Stade Dudelange 0 564 17.41% 22.69%
21 1986-04-06 29.8 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 941 69.23% Swift Hesperange 0 730 8.51% 22.26%
22 1986-04-20 31.4 @ Union Luxembourg 2 793 63.79% Progres Niedercorn 0 670 13.41% 22.80%
23 1985-12-22 31.7 Union Luxembourg 7 747 61.78% @ Stade Dudelange 1 437 15.66% 22.56%
24 1985-12-08 32.2 Differdange 03 5 712 50.25% @ Stade Dudelange 0 515 26.65% 23.09%
25 1985-12-22 32.3 @ Grevenmacher 1 892 69.34% Progres Niedercorn 0 680 8.41% 22.25%