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1986-87 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

38 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Progres Niedercorn

5.09 points above expected

25 points · 19.91 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Wiltz 71

7.25 points below expected

10 points · 17.25 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 17 4 1 38 64 14 +50 32.97 +5.03
2 Avenir Beggen 22 15 5 2 35 63 27 +36 31.98 +3.02
3 Spora Luxembourg 22 14 2 6 30 54 21 +33 28.02 +1.98
4 Union Luxembourg 22 12 4 6 28 51 23 +28 25.76 +2.24
5 Progres Niedercorn 22 10 5 7 25 30 22 +8 19.91 +5.09
6 Alliance Dudelange 22 9 2 11 20 32 50 -18 18.81 +1.19
7 Differdange 03 22 7 5 10 19 33 35 -2 23.36 -4.36
8 Grevenmacher 22 7 4 11 18 25 46 -21 19.77 -1.77
9 Olympique Eischen 22 5 6 11 16 23 50 -27 14.97 +1.03
10 Swift Hesperange 22 6 3 13 15 37 51 -14 14.18 +0.82
11 Wiltz 71 22 3 4 15 10 24 57 -33 17.25 -7.25
12 CS Petange 22 2 6 14 10 17 57 -40 17.02 -7.02

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Progres Niedercorn 25 19.91 +5.09
2 Jeunesse Esch 38 32.97 +5.03
3 Avenir Beggen 35 31.98 +3.02
4 Union Luxembourg 28 25.76 +2.24
5 Spora Luxembourg 30 28.02 +1.98

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiltz 71 10 17.25 -7.25
2 CS Petange 10 17.02 -7.02
3 Differdange 03 19 23.36 -4.36
4 Grevenmacher 18 19.77 -1.77
5 Swift Hesperange 15 14.18 +0.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Progres Niedercorn 5 Oct 19 – Nov 23 1 in 184
2 Olympique Eischen 3 May 3 – May 17 1 in 38
3 Jeunesse Esch 8 Oct 19 – Dec 14 1 in 29
4 Swift Hesperange 2 Dec 7 – Dec 14 1 in 21
5 Avenir Beggen 5 Mar 8 – Apr 12 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Differdange 03 4 Mar 8 – Apr 5 1 in 133
2 Wiltz 71 6 Nov 16 – Mar 8 1 in 116
3 Swift Hesperange 7 Sep 3 – Oct 19 1 in 48
4 CS Petange 6 Oct 26 – Dec 7 1 in 47
5 Union Luxembourg 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 45

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Olympique Eischen 4 Oct 5 – Nov 2 1 in 34
2 CS Petange 3 Apr 26 – May 10 1 in 33
3 Swift Hesperange 4 Nov 23 – Dec 14 1 in 31
4 Progres Niedercorn 5 Oct 19 – Nov 23 1 in 18
5 Jeunesse Esch 14 Sep 3 – Dec 14 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 CS Petange 14 Sep 3 – Dec 14 1 in 634
2 Progres Niedercorn 7 Nov 30 – Apr 5 1 in 90
3 Union Luxembourg 5 Oct 5 – Nov 16 1 in 34
4 Olympique Eischen 11 Sep 3 – Nov 23 1 in 30
5 Differdange 03 4 Mar 8 – Apr 5 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 990 38 +35 9 7.9 +1.1
Avenir Beggen 948 35 +19 8 8.1 -0.1
Spora Luxembourg 871 30 +20 6 7.0 -1.0
Union Luxembourg 865 28 +57 10 7.8 +2.2
Progres Niedercorn 708 25 +58 7 5.3 +1.7
Alliance Dudelange 619 20 -11 4 4.3 -0.3
Differdange 03 668 19 -28 3 4.5 -1.5
Grevenmacher 476 18 -155 0 3.7 -3.7
Olympique Eischen 574 16 +71 6 3.1 +2.9
Swift Hesperange 660 15 +125 5 3.7 +1.3
CS Petange 410 10 -84 4 2.8 +1.2
Wiltz 71 442 10 -73 0 2.7 -2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AD AB CP D0 GRE JE OE PN SL SH UL W7
Alliance Dudelange —
0-0-2
1.46
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-2
0.85
2-0-0
3.54
1-1-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.41
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
3.42
Avenir Beggen
2-0-0
4.15
 —
1-1-0
4.67
1-1-0
3.77
2-0-0
4.59
1-0-1
2.43
1-1-0
4.84
2-0-0
4.41
0-1-1
3.60
1-1-0
4.93
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
4.39
CS Petange
0-1-1
3.05
0-1-1
0.96
 —
1-0-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
0.70
0-1-1
3.33
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-2
1.15
0-0-2
3.19
0-0-2
1.73
1-1-0
2.55
Differdange 03
2-0-0
3.20
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
3.76
 —
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
4.08
0-1-1
3.29
0-1-1
2.18
1-0-1
3.97
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
3.87
Grevenmacher
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.04
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.66
 —
0-2-0
1.06
1-0-1
3.37
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
1.73
1-1-0
3.65
1-0-1
1.71
1-1-0
3.16
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
4.77
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
4.94
2-0-0
4.13
0-2-0
4.56
 —
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.28
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
4.88
1-1-0
4.00
2-0-0
4.73
Olympique Eischen
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
0.79
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
1.00
 —
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
1.67
1-1-0
2.73
0-1-1
1.13
1-1-0
2.34
Progres Niedercorn
0-1-1
2.95
0-0-2
1.21
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.31
2-0-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.33
1-1-0
3.56
 —
2-0-0
1.62
1-0-1
3.71
0-1-1
2.21
2-0-0
3.66
Spora Luxembourg
2-0-0
4.19
1-1-0
2.00
2-0-0
4.47
1-1-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.88
0-0-2
2.15
2-0-0
3.93
0-0-2
3.98
 —
2-0-0
4.41
0-0-2
3.56
2-0-0
4.14
Swift Hesperange
0-0-2
1.87
0-1-1
0.71
2-0-0
2.41
1-0-1
1.64
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
0.75
0-1-1
2.87
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.21
 —
1-0-1
1.18
1-0-1
2.31
Union Luxembourg
1-0-1
3.41
0-0-2
1.95
2-0-0
3.88
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
3.90
0-1-1
1.60
1-1-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
2.04
1-0-1
4.43
 —
2-0-0
4.12
Wiltz 71
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.23
0-1-1
3.05
1-1-0
1.73
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
0.89
0-1-1
3.26
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
1.47
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-2
1.50
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +5.3
Allowed 0.85 -5.4
Differential 0.94 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%5.30%4.92%5.30%2.27%2.65%27.27%
15.30%9.09%3.41%4.17%4.92%2.65%29.55%
24.92%3.41%2.27%3.03%1.52%0.38%15.53%
35.30%4.17%3.03%———12.50%
42.27%4.92%1.52%———8.71%
5+2.65%2.65%0.38%——0.76%6.44%
Total27.27%29.55%15.53%12.50%8.71%6.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.71 1.71 2.72
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
19.09%——9.09%9.09%13.64%40.91%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%13.64%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.27 -0.82
SD 1.26 2.19 2.74
CV 0.87 0.96 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.55%——4.55%
14.55%18.18%————22.73%
24.55%9.09%——4.55%—18.18%
3—13.64%————13.64%
44.55%22.73%————27.27%
5+4.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
Total18.18%68.18%—4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.23 +1.64
SD 1.73 1.23 2.17
CV 0.60 1.00 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%18.18%——13.64%54.55%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
3———————
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%27.27%27.27%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 2.59 -1.82
SD 1.07 2.58 2.89
CV 1.38 0.99 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%——4.55%—18.18%
14.55%13.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%—45.45%
29.09%——4.55%4.55%—18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%13.64%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.59 -0.09
SD 1.37 1.40 2.07
CV 0.91 0.88 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%13.64%4.55%—36.36%
19.09%9.09%——9.09%9.09%36.36%
24.55%——4.55%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%13.64%18.18%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.09 -0.95
SD 1.21 1.80 2.34
CV 1.06 0.86 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
113.64%4.55%—4.55%——22.73%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
313.64%4.55%————18.18%
413.64%13.64%————27.27%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
Total54.55%31.82%9.09%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.91 0.64 +2.27
SD 1.95 0.85 2.05
CV 0.67 1.33 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%36.36%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%13.64%—36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%9.09%13.64%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.27 -1.23
SD 1.05 1.80 2.43
CV 1.00 0.79 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
19.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
29.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
313.64%—————13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%18.18%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.00 +0.36
SD 1.36 1.27 2.24
CV 1.00 1.27 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
14.55%4.55%————9.09%
29.09%—————9.09%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+9.09%13.64%————22.73%
Total36.36%40.91%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 0.95 +1.50
SD 2.24 0.95 2.67
CV 0.91 1.00 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—13.64%4.55%—31.82%
1—4.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%————4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%18.18%13.64%27.27%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.32 -0.64
SD 2.30 1.70 3.11
CV 1.37 0.73 —
Max 10 6 +10
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total36.36%31.82%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.05 +1.27
SD 1.78 1.00 2.23
CV 0.77 0.96 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%13.64%—4.55%36.36%
1—13.64%—4.55%13.64%—31.82%
2——4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%22.73%22.73%22.73%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.59 -1.50
SD 1.06 1.50 1.90
CV 0.98 0.58 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 990 38 32.97 +5.03 97.0% 19 27 31 33 35 38 40
Avenir Beggen 948 35 31.98 +3.02 80.0% 22 25 30 32 34 37 40
Spora Luxembourg 871 30 28.02 +1.98 75.0% 18 21 26 28 30 34 36
Union Luxembourg 865 28 25.76 +2.24 80.0% 16 20 23 26 28 31 33
Progres Niedercorn 708 25 19.91 +5.09 94.0% 8 13 17 20 22 26 32
Differdange 03 668 19 23.36 -4.36 10.0% 17 17 21 23 26 28 31
Swift Hesperange 660 15 14.18 +0.82 69.0% 7 9 11 14 17 21 23
Alliance Dudelange 619 20 18.81 +1.19 66.0% 10 12 16 19 21 26 27
Olympique Eischen 574 16 14.97 +1.03 63.0% 5 8 12 15 18 21 23
Grevenmacher 476 18 19.77 -1.77 38.0% 12 14 17 19 22 26 29
Wiltz 71 442 10 17.25 -7.25 5.0% 9 10 15 17 20 23 28
CS Petange 410 10 17.02 -7.02 3.0% 9 11 15 18 19 22 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.76%
No Edge
40.91%18.94%40.15%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 2.63 Elo pts.
140 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.13 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.97 * Some Luck: 2.97 to 4.45 * Lucky: 4.45 to 5.94 * Wild Swing: 5.94 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.71 * Off: 1.71 to 2.28 * Way Off: 2.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.05 points
Some Luck
03.719
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Close
01.433
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Jeunesse Esch
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
CS Petange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 196.75
2.18
Wide Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Few
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Notable Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.08
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.095
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch56.00%28.00%13.00%2.00%————1.00%———
Avenir Beggen32.00%43.00%10.00%12.00%2.00%1.00%——————
Spora Luxembourg9.00%20.00%36.00%19.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%—1.00%———
Union Luxembourg2.00%6.00%27.00%31.00%18.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%——
Progres Niedercorn1.00%—2.00%7.00%11.00%20.00%21.00%10.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%6.00%
Alliance Dudelange——3.00%3.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%12.00%5.00%
Differdange 03—3.00%5.00%21.00%26.00%18.00%15.00%9.00%3.00%———
Grevenmacher——3.00%5.00%12.00%11.00%16.00%23.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%1.00%
Olympique Eischen—————10.00%4.00%9.00%10.00%22.00%18.00%27.00%
Swift Hesperange————2.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%13.00%24.00%36.00%
Wiltz 71——1.00%—6.00%7.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%18.00%19.00%14.00%
CS Petange————5.00%6.00%11.00%14.00%18.00%17.00%18.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Avenir Beggen 100% —
Differdange 03 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Spora Luxembourg 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Grevenmacher 94.00% 6.00%
Progres Niedercorn 90.00% 10.00%
Alliance Dudelange 83.00% 17.00%
CS Petange 71.00% 29.00%
Wiltz 71 67.00% 33.00%
Olympique Eischen 55.00% 45.00%
Swift Hesperange 40.00% 60.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1986-09-03 CS Petange D 0-050.2 648 746 27.94% 19.99% 52.07%-0.68 +2.2 1
1986-09-03 @ Alliance Dudelange D 0-050.2 746 648 52.07% 19.99% 27.94%+0.68 -2.2 1
1986-09-03 Differdange 03 W 4-032.9 796 705 53.08% 19.98% 26.94%+0.67 +39.2 2
1986-09-03 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-432.9 705 796 26.94% 19.98% 53.08%-0.67 -39.2 0
1986-09-03 Wiltz 71 D 2-258.4 641 666 37.48% 20.08% 42.44%-0.16 +0.3 1
1986-09-03 @ Olympique Eischen D 2-258.4 666 641 42.44% 20.08% 37.48%+0.16 -0.3 1
1986-09-03 Jeunesse Esch L 0-330.7 568 792 15.64% 19.56% 64.80%-1.57 -18.6 0
1986-09-03 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-030.7 792 568 64.80% 19.56% 15.64%+1.57 +18.6 2
1986-09-03 Spora Luxembourg W 3-040.9 678 756 30.55% 20.03% 49.43%-0.53 +49.6 2
1986-09-03 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-340.9 756 678 49.43% 20.03% 30.55%+0.53 -49.6 0
1986-09-03 Grevenmacher L 2-349.4 594 643 34.19% 20.07% 45.74%-0.33 -11.9 0
1986-09-03 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-249.4 643 594 45.74% 20.07% 34.19%+0.33 +11.9 2
1986-09-07 Progres Niedercorn D 0-050.3 650 550 54.20% 19.96% 25.84%+0.73 -2.6 2
1986-09-07 @ Alliance Dudelange D 0-050.3 550 650 25.84% 19.96% 54.20%-0.73 +2.6 1
1986-09-07 Swift Hesperange W 3-034.4 666 582 52.28% 20.00% 27.72%+0.62 +30.7 2
1986-09-07 @ Differdange 03 L 0-334.4 582 666 27.72% 20.00% 52.28%-0.62 -30.7 0
1986-09-07 Union Luxembourg D 2-258.4 810 728 52.03% 20.00% 27.97%+0.60 -1.5 3
1986-09-07 @ Jeunesse Esch D 2-258.4 728 810 27.97% 20.00% 52.03%-0.60 +1.5 3
1986-09-07 Olympique Eischen W 4-033.9 706 641 49.92% 20.03% 30.05%+0.48 +42.9 2
1986-09-07 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-433.9 641 706 30.05% 20.03% 49.92%-0.48 -42.9 1
1986-09-07 Grevenmacher L 0-243.9 744 655 52.84% 19.99% 27.17%+0.65 -36.3 1
1986-09-07 @ CS Petange W 2-043.9 655 744 27.17% 19.99% 52.84%-0.65 +36.3 4
1986-09-07 Avenir Beggen L 1-436.8 666 835 20.29% 19.79% 59.93%-1.19 -19.8 1
1986-09-07 @ Wiltz 71 W 4-136.8 835 666 59.93% 19.79% 20.29%+1.19 +19.8 4
1986-09-14 Spora Luxembourg D 1-153.7 855 749 54.84% 19.95% 25.21%+0.77 -2.5 5
1986-09-14 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-153.7 749 855 25.21% 19.95% 54.84%-0.77 +2.5 3
1986-09-14 Differdange 03 L 0-240.2 691 697 40.31% 20.09% 39.60%-0.02 -28.7 4
1986-09-14 @ Grevenmacher W 2-040.2 697 691 39.60% 20.09% 40.31%+0.02 +28.7 4
1986-09-14 Jeunesse Esch L 0-429.7 598 809 16.64% 19.62% 63.74%-1.48 -25.7 1
1986-09-14 @ Olympique Eischen W 4-029.7 809 598 63.74% 19.62% 16.64%+1.48 +25.7 5
1986-09-14 CS Petange W 1-047.7 552 707 21.67% 19.84% 58.49%-1.09 +21.2 3
1986-09-14 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-147.7 707 552 58.49% 19.84% 21.67%+1.09 -21.2 1
1986-09-14 Alliance Dudelange L 2-354.8 730 647 52.06% 20.00% 27.94%+0.61 -17.0 3
1986-09-14 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-254.8 647 730 27.94% 20.00% 52.06%-0.61 +17.0 4
1986-09-14 Wiltz 71 L 0-334.6 551 646 28.35% 20.00% 51.65%-0.66 -31.3 0
1986-09-14 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-034.6 646 551 51.65% 20.00% 28.35%+0.66 +31.3 3
1986-09-21 Olympique Eischen W 4-138.8 664 572 53.21% 19.98% 26.81%+0.67 +25.2 6
1986-09-21 @ Alliance Dudelange L 1-438.8 572 664 26.81% 19.98% 53.21%-0.67 -25.2 1
1986-09-21 Avenir Beggen W 3-038.5 834 852 38.53% 20.09% 41.39%-0.11 +42.6 7
1986-09-21 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-338.5 852 834 41.39% 20.09% 38.53%+0.11 -42.6 5
1986-09-21 Union Luxembourg D 1-153.7 573 713 23.32% 19.89% 56.79%-0.97 +2.8 4
1986-09-21 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.7 713 573 56.79% 19.89% 23.32%+0.97 -2.8 4
1986-09-21 Swift Hesperange W 6-131.7 751 520 66.68% 19.47% 13.86%+1.67 +22.2 5
1986-09-21 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-631.7 520 751 13.86% 19.47% 66.68%-1.67 -22.2 0
1986-09-21 Differdange 03 L 0-238.7 686 725 35.56% 20.07% 44.37%-0.26 -26.0 1
1986-09-21 @ CS Petange W 2-038.7 725 686 44.37% 20.07% 35.56%+0.26 +26.0 6
1986-09-21 Grevenmacher D 1-153.7 677 662 43.18% 20.08% 36.73%+0.12 -0.5 4
1986-09-21 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-153.7 662 677 36.73% 20.08% 43.18%-0.12 +0.5 5
1986-09-28 Alliance Dudelange W 4-137.8 810 689 56.47% 19.91% 23.62%+0.88 +22.6 7
1986-09-28 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-437.8 689 810 23.62% 19.91% 56.47%-0.88 -22.6 6
1986-09-28 Wiltz 71 D 1-153.7 751 677 51.11% 20.02% 28.87%+0.55 -1.8 7
1986-09-28 @ Differdange 03 D 1-153.7 677 751 28.87% 20.02% 51.11%-0.55 +1.8 5
1986-09-28 Spora Luxembourg L 2-347.1 663 774 26.47% 19.96% 53.57%-0.77 -9.6 5
1986-09-28 @ Grevenmacher W 3-247.1 774 663 53.57% 19.96% 26.47%+0.77 +9.6 7
1986-09-28 Progres Niedercorn L 0-239.1 547 576 36.95% 20.08% 42.97%-0.19 -26.8 1
1986-09-28 @ Olympique Eischen W 2-039.1 576 547 42.97% 20.08% 36.95%+0.19 +26.8 6
1986-09-28 CS Petange W 3-142.4 710 660 47.90% 20.05% 32.04%+0.37 +20.6 6
1986-09-28 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-342.4 660 710 32.04% 20.05% 47.90%-0.37 -20.7 1
1986-09-28 Jeunesse Esch L 0-426.5 498 877 7.04% 18.58% 74.38%-2.69 -11.4 0
1986-09-28 @ Swift Hesperange W 4-026.5 877 498 74.38% 18.58% 7.04%+2.69 +11.4 9
1986-10-05 Swift Hesperange W 1-035.5 667 486 62.49% 19.70% 17.81%+1.31 +7.6 8
1986-10-05 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-135.5 486 667 17.81% 19.70% 62.49%-1.31 -7.6 0
1986-10-05 Grevenmacher D 0-050.4 888 653 66.93% 19.45% 13.62%+1.70 -5.3 10
1986-10-05 @ Jeunesse Esch D 0-050.4 653 888 13.62% 19.45% 66.93%-1.70 +5.3 6
1986-10-05 Avenir Beggen L 1-238.9 603 832 15.19% 19.53% 65.28%-1.62 -6.2 6
1986-10-05 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-138.9 832 603 65.28% 19.53% 15.19%+1.62 +6.2 9
1986-10-05 Olympique Eischen D 1-153.8 730 520 65.00% 19.57% 15.43%+1.52 -4.3 7
1986-10-05 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-153.8 520 730 15.43% 19.57% 65.00%-1.52 +4.4 2
1986-10-05 Differdange 03 D 0-050.2 783 750 45.80% 20.07% 34.13%+0.26 -1.0 8
1986-10-05 @ Spora Luxembourg D 0-050.2 750 783 34.13% 20.07% 45.80%-0.26 +1.1 8
1986-10-05 CS Petange D 1-153.7 679 640 46.50% 20.07% 33.44%+0.30 -1.0 6
1986-10-05 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-153.7 640 679 33.44% 20.07% 46.50%-0.30 +1.0 2
1986-10-19 Union Luxembourg W 2-141.8 839 726 55.59% 19.93% 24.47%+0.82 +9.5 11
1986-10-19 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-241.8 726 839 24.47% 19.93% 55.59%-0.82 -9.5 7
1986-10-19 Jeunesse Esch L 1-339.9 751 883 24.02% 19.91% 56.07%-0.93 -16.2 8
1986-10-19 @ Differdange 03 W 3-139.9 883 751 56.07% 19.91% 24.02%+0.93 +16.2 12
1986-10-19 Alliance Dudelange W 3-145.1 659 674 38.83% 20.09% 41.09%-0.09 +25.3 8
1986-10-19 @ Grevenmacher L 1-345.1 674 659 41.09% 20.09% 38.83%+0.09 -25.3 8
1986-10-19 Progres Niedercorn L 0-333.8 479 597 25.60% 19.94% 54.45%-0.83 -28.7 0
1986-10-19 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-033.8 597 479 54.45% 19.94% 25.60%+0.83 +28.7 8
1986-10-19 Olympique Eischen D 0-050.3 641 525 55.98% 19.92% 24.10%+0.85 -3.0 3
1986-10-19 @ CS Petange D 0-050.3 525 641 24.10% 19.92% 55.98%-0.85 +3.0 3
1986-10-19 Spora Luxembourg L 0-334.2 678 782 27.17% 19.98% 52.86%-0.73 -30.2 6
1986-10-19 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-034.2 782 678 52.86% 19.98% 27.17%+0.73 +30.2 10
1986-10-26 Differdange 03 L 1-341.6 649 734 29.53% 20.02% 50.46%-0.59 -19.3 8
1986-10-26 @ Alliance Dudelange W 3-141.6 734 649 50.46% 20.02% 29.53%+0.59 +19.3 10
1986-10-26 Wiltz 71 W 4-134.3 899 647 68.14% 19.36% 12.51%+1.82 +12.8 14
1986-10-26 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-434.3 647 899 12.51% 19.36% 68.14%-1.82 -12.8 6
1986-10-26 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.0 528 848 9.57% 19.01% 71.42%-2.27 +5.6 4
1986-10-26 @ Olympique Eischen D 1-154.0 848 528 71.42% 19.01% 9.57%+2.27 -5.6 12
1986-10-26 Grevenmacher W 4-144.9 626 684 32.98% 20.06% 46.96%-0.40 +40.0 10
1986-10-26 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-444.9 684 626 46.96% 20.06% 32.98%+0.40 -40.0 8
1986-10-26 Swift Hesperange L 1-255.0 717 450 69.12% 19.27% 11.61%+1.92 -23.7 7
1986-10-26 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-155.0 450 717 11.61% 19.27% 69.12%-1.92 +23.7 2
1986-10-26 CS Petange W 5-029.8 812 638 61.96% 19.73% 18.31%+1.27 +34.5 12
1986-10-26 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-529.8 638 812 18.31% 19.73% 61.96%-1.27 -34.5 3
1986-11-02 Progres Niedercorn L 1-250.3 754 666 52.77% 19.99% 27.24%+0.65 -18.1 10
1986-11-02 @ Differdange 03 W 2-150.3 666 754 27.24% 19.99% 52.77%-0.65 +18.1 12
1986-11-02 Union Luxembourg W 1-044.0 644 693 34.22% 20.07% 45.71%-0.33 +16.9 10
1986-11-02 @ Grevenmacher L 0-144.0 693 644 45.71% 20.07% 34.22%+0.33 -16.9 7
1986-11-02 Jeunesse Esch L 0-335.7 847 912 32.08% 20.05% 47.87%-0.45 -34.7 12
1986-11-02 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-035.7 912 847 47.87% 20.05% 32.08%+0.45 +34.7 16
1986-11-02 Olympique Eischen D 1-153.7 473 533 32.79% 20.05% 47.16%-0.41 +1.2 3
1986-11-02 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-153.7 533 473 47.16% 20.05% 32.79%+0.41 -1.2 5
1986-11-02 Avenir Beggen L 0-728.8 603 842 14.44% 19.48% 66.08%-1.69 -38.3 3
1986-11-02 @ CS Petange W 7-028.8 842 603 66.08% 19.48% 14.44%+1.69 +38.3 14
1986-11-02 Alliance Dudelange W 3-250.6 635 630 41.76% 20.09% 38.15%+0.05 +13.0 8
1986-11-02 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-350.6 630 635 38.15% 20.09% 41.76%-0.05 -13.0 8
1986-11-16 Spora Luxembourg L 1-534.3 617 812 17.91% 19.68% 62.41%-1.38 -22.9 8
1986-11-16 @ Alliance Dudelange W 5-134.3 812 617 62.41% 19.68% 17.91%+1.38 +22.9 14
1986-11-16 Swift Hesperange W 3-133.9 881 475 76.10% 18.29% 5.62%+2.92 +4.2 16
1986-11-16 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-333.9 475 881 5.62% 18.29% 76.10%-2.92 -4.2 3
1986-11-16 CS Petange W 1-031.7 947 565 75.14% 18.48% 6.38%+2.74 +2.9 18
1986-11-16 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-131.7 565 947 6.38% 18.48% 75.14%-2.74 -2.9 3
1986-11-16 Grevenmacher L 0-333.4 532 661 24.45% 19.92% 55.64%-0.90 -27.6 5
1986-11-16 @ Olympique Eischen W 3-033.4 661 532 55.64% 19.92% 24.45%+0.90 +27.6 12
1986-11-16 Wiltz 71 W 3-036.3 684 648 46.10% 20.07% 33.83%+0.28 +36.2 14
1986-11-16 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-336.3 648 684 33.83% 20.07% 46.10%-0.28 -36.2 8
1986-11-16 Differdange 03 D 0-050.2 676 736 32.82% 20.05% 47.13%-0.41 +1.3 8
1986-11-16 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-050.2 736 676 47.13% 20.05% 32.82%+0.41 -1.3 11
1986-11-23 Olympique Eischen W 3-243.2 734 505 66.53% 19.48% 13.99%+1.66 +5.5 13
1986-11-23 @ Differdange 03 L 2-343.2 505 734 13.99% 19.48% 66.53%-1.66 -5.5 5
1986-11-23 Avenir Beggen L 1-436.0 688 885 17.82% 19.68% 62.51%-1.38 -17.6 12
1986-11-23 @ Grevenmacher W 4-136.0 885 688 62.51% 19.68% 17.82%+1.38 +17.6 18
1986-11-23 Alliance Dudelange W 7-128.7 950 594 74.00% 18.68% 7.32%+2.56 +14.3 20
1986-11-23 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-728.7 594 950 7.32% 18.68% 74.00%-2.56 -14.3 8
1986-11-23 Progres Niedercorn L 0-244.8 835 720 55.92% 19.92% 24.16%+0.84 -38.3 14
1986-11-23 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-044.8 720 835 24.16% 19.92% 55.92%-0.84 +38.2 16
1986-11-23 Swift Hesperange L 2-355.1 562 470 53.16% 19.98% 26.86%+0.67 -17.3 3
1986-11-23 @ CS Petange W 3-255.1 470 562 26.86% 19.98% 53.16%-0.67 +17.3 5
1986-11-23 Union Luxembourg L 0-237.6 611 677 31.98% 20.05% 47.97%-0.45 -23.8 8
1986-11-23 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-037.6 677 611 47.97% 20.05% 31.98%+0.45 +23.8 10
1986-11-30 Avenir Beggen D 1-153.8 740 903 20.91% 19.81% 59.28%-1.14 +3.3 14
1986-11-30 @ Differdange 03 D 1-153.8 903 740 59.28% 19.81% 20.91%+1.14 -3.3 19
1986-11-30 Swift Hesperange D 0-050.3 671 488 62.70% 19.69% 17.61%+1.32 -4.4 13
1986-11-30 @ Grevenmacher D 0-050.3 488 671 17.61% 19.69% 62.70%-1.32 +4.4 6
1986-11-30 Progres Niedercorn W 1-034.8 964 758 64.67% 19.59% 15.74%+1.49 +6.8 22
1986-11-30 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.8 758 964 15.74% 19.59% 64.67%-1.49 -6.8 16
1986-11-30 Alliance Dudelange L 0-238.9 545 580 36.14% 20.08% 43.79%-0.23 -26.3 3
1986-11-30 @ CS Petange W 2-038.9 580 545 43.79% 20.08% 36.14%+0.23 +26.3 10
1986-11-30 Olympique Eischen L 1-348.6 588 499 52.81% 19.99% 27.20%+0.65 -31.4 8
1986-11-30 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-148.6 499 588 27.20% 19.99% 52.81%-0.65 +31.4 7
1986-12-07 Wiltz 71 W 1-032.2 899 556 73.41% 18.77% 7.82%+2.47 +3.5 21
1986-12-07 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-132.2 556 899 7.82% 18.77% 73.41%-2.47 -3.5 8
1986-12-07 CS Petange W 4-243.1 666 518 59.39% 19.82% 20.79%+1.08 +12.8 15
1986-12-07 @ Grevenmacher L 2-443.1 518 666 20.79% 19.82% 59.39%-1.08 -12.8 3
1986-12-07 Spora Luxembourg L 1-336.3 530 797 12.61% 19.34% 68.06%-1.88 -9.1 7
1986-12-07 @ Olympique Eischen W 3-136.3 797 530 68.06% 19.34% 12.61%+1.88 +9.1 16
1986-12-07 Alliance Dudelange L 0-147.9 751 606 59.11% 19.83% 21.05%+1.06 -21.4 16
1986-12-07 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-047.9 606 751 21.05% 19.83% 59.11%-1.06 +21.4 12
1986-12-07 Jeunesse Esch L 1-238.0 701 971 12.40% 19.32% 68.29%-1.91 -5.2 10
1986-12-07 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-138.0 971 701 68.29% 19.32% 12.40%+1.91 +5.2 24
1986-12-07 Differdange 03 W 4-256.8 492 743 13.64% 19.42% 66.94%-1.77 +35.5 8
1986-12-07 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-456.8 743 492 66.94% 19.42% 13.64%+1.77 -35.4 14
1986-12-14 Union Luxembourg L 0-237.5 627 696 31.64% 20.04% 48.32%-0.47 -23.6 12
1986-12-14 @ Alliance Dudelange W 2-037.5 696 627 48.32% 20.04% 31.64%+0.47 +23.6 12
1986-12-14 Grevenmacher W 6-138.2 708 679 45.07% 20.07% 34.86%+0.22 +49.5 16
1986-12-14 @ Differdange 03 L 1-638.2 679 708 34.86% 20.07% 45.07%-0.22 -49.5 15
1986-12-14 Olympique Eischen W 6-025.0 976 521 77.79% 17.87% 4.34%+3.26 +10.3 26
1986-12-14 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-625.0 521 976 4.34% 17.87% 77.79%-3.26 -10.3 7
1986-12-14 Avenir Beggen W 4-252.4 806 903 28.11% 19.99% 51.89%-0.67 +27.6 18
1986-12-14 @ Spora Luxembourg L 2-452.4 903 806 51.89% 19.99% 28.11%+0.67 -27.6 21
1986-12-14 Progres Niedercorn D 2-258.5 505 730 15.56% 19.55% 64.89%-1.58 +3.2 4
1986-12-14 @ CS Petange D 2-258.5 730 505 64.89% 19.55% 15.56%+1.58 -3.2 17
1986-12-14 Swift Hesperange L 0-241.4 553 528 44.60% 20.08% 35.32%+0.20 -31.2 8
1986-12-14 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-041.4 528 553 35.32% 20.08% 44.60%-0.20 +31.2 10
1986-12-21 Union Luxembourg L 0-147.0 834 720 55.78% 19.93% 24.29%+0.83 -20.2 18
1986-12-21 @ Spora Luxembourg W 1-047.0 720 834 24.29% 19.93% 55.78%-0.83 +20.2 14
1987-03-08 Jeunesse Esch W 3-148.8 875 986 26.42% 19.96% 53.62%-0.77 +31.8 23
1987-03-08 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-348.8 986 875 53.62% 19.96% 26.42%+0.77 -31.8 26
1987-03-08 CS Petange L 1-254.7 757 509 67.88% 19.38% 12.74%+1.79 -23.2 16
1987-03-08 @ Differdange 03 W 2-154.7 509 757 12.74% 19.38% 67.88%-1.79 +23.2 6
1987-03-08 Wiltz 71 W 1-037.7 630 521 55.12% 19.94% 24.93%+0.79 +10.2 17
1987-03-08 @ Grevenmacher L 0-137.7 521 630 24.93% 19.94% 55.12%-0.79 -10.2 8
1987-03-08 Alliance Dudelange L 1-439.3 511 604 28.61% 20.00% 51.39%-0.64 -26.6 7
1987-03-08 @ Olympique Eischen W 4-139.3 604 511 51.39% 20.00% 28.61%+0.64 +26.6 14
1987-03-08 Progres Niedercorn W 5-035.5 740 727 42.95% 20.08% 36.96%+0.11 +62.7 16
1987-03-08 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-535.5 727 740 36.96% 20.08% 42.95%-0.11 -62.7 17
1987-03-08 Spora Luxembourg L 0-134.1 559 813 13.38% 19.40% 67.21%-1.80 -5.9 10
1987-03-08 @ Swift Hesperange W 1-034.1 813 559 67.21% 19.40% 13.38%+1.80 +5.9 20
1987-03-15 Avenir Beggen L 1-434.1 630 907 11.97% 19.28% 68.76%-1.96 -12.3 14
1987-03-15 @ Alliance Dudelange W 4-134.1 907 630 68.76% 19.28% 11.97%+1.96 +12.3 25
1987-03-15 Swift Hesperange W 4-132.0 955 553 75.92% 18.33% 5.75%+2.88 +6.0 28
1987-03-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-432.0 553 955 5.75% 18.33% 75.92%-2.88 -6.0 10
1987-03-15 Olympique Eischen D 0-050.3 664 484 62.39% 19.71% 17.90%+1.30 -4.3 18
1987-03-15 @ Progres Niedercorn D 0-050.3 484 664 17.90% 19.71% 62.39%-1.30 +4.3 8
1987-03-15 Grevenmacher W 2-033.3 819 640 62.38% 19.71% 17.92%+1.30 +14.5 22
1987-03-15 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-233.3 640 819 17.92% 19.71% 62.38%-1.30 -14.5 17
1987-03-15 Union Luxembourg L 1-730.4 532 802 12.35% 19.31% 68.33%-1.91 -23.6 6
1987-03-15 @ CS Petange W 7-130.4 802 532 68.33% 19.31% 12.35%+1.91 +23.6 18
1987-03-15 Differdange 03 W 3-258.4 511 734 15.68% 19.56% 64.76%-1.57 +21.0 10
1987-03-15 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-358.4 734 511 64.76% 19.56% 15.68%+1.57 -21.0 16
1987-03-22 Spora Luxembourg L 1-340.3 713 834 25.31% 19.94% 54.76%-0.84 -17.0 16
1987-03-22 @ Differdange 03 W 3-140.3 834 713 54.76% 19.94% 25.31%+0.84 +17.0 24
1987-03-22 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.0 625 961 8.87% 18.91% 72.23%-2.37 +5.8 18
1987-03-22 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.0 961 625 72.23% 18.91% 8.87%+2.37 -5.8 29
1987-03-22 Alliance Dudelange L 1-243.9 547 618 31.31% 20.04% 48.65%-0.49 -11.7 10
1987-03-22 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-143.9 618 547 48.65% 20.04% 31.31%+0.49 +11.7 16
1987-03-29 Progres Niedercorn W 2-031.4 919 660 68.65% 19.31% 12.03%+1.87 +10.1 27
1987-03-29 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-231.4 660 919 12.03% 19.31% 68.65%-1.87 -10.1 18
1987-04-05 Grevenmacher W 3-037.8 630 631 40.89% 20.09% 39.03%+0.01 +40.7 18
1987-04-05 @ Alliance Dudelange L 0-337.8 631 630 39.03% 20.09% 40.89%-0.01 -40.7 18
1987-04-05 Differdange 03 W 4-134.2 955 696 68.60% 19.32% 12.08%+1.87 +12.4 31
1987-04-05 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-434.2 696 955 12.08% 19.32% 68.60%-1.87 -12.4 16
1987-04-05 CS Petange W 2-147.0 489 508 38.30% 20.09% 41.62%-0.12 +14.7 10
1987-04-05 @ Olympique Eischen L 1-247.0 508 489 41.62% 20.09% 38.30%+0.12 -14.8 6
1987-04-05 Swift Hesperange L 0-244.8 650 535 55.81% 19.93% 24.26%+0.83 -38.2 18
1987-04-05 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-044.8 535 650 24.26% 19.93% 55.81%-0.83 +38.2 12
1987-04-05 Avenir Beggen L 1-340.9 826 929 27.34% 19.98% 52.68%-0.72 -18.1 18
1987-04-05 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-140.9 929 826 52.68% 19.98% 27.34%+0.72 +18.1 29
1987-04-05 Wiltz 71 W 5-026.7 851 532 72.17% 18.95% 8.89%+2.29 +17.7 26
1987-04-05 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-526.7 532 851 8.89% 18.95% 72.17%-2.29 -17.7 10
1987-04-12 Olympique Eischen W 4-131.5 947 503 77.44% 17.97% 4.59%+3.19 +4.8 31
1987-04-12 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-431.5 503 947 4.59% 17.97% 77.44%-3.19 -4.8 10
1987-04-12 Alliance Dudelange W 1-041.4 684 670 42.96% 20.08% 36.96%+0.11 +14.2 18
1987-04-12 @ Differdange 03 L 0-141.4 670 684 36.96% 20.08% 42.96%-0.11 -14.2 18
1987-04-12 Progres Niedercorn L 0-436.3 591 611 38.11% 20.08% 41.80%-0.13 -52.1 18
1987-04-12 @ Grevenmacher W 4-036.3 611 591 41.80% 20.08% 38.11%+0.13 +52.1 20
1987-04-12 Union Luxembourg L 1-435.0 573 808 14.79% 19.50% 65.71%-1.65 -14.9 12
1987-04-12 @ Swift Hesperange W 4-135.0 808 573 65.71% 19.50% 14.79%+1.65 +14.9 20
1987-04-12 Spora Luxembourg L 0-229.8 494 868 7.21% 18.62% 74.17%-2.66 -6.2 6
1987-04-12 @ CS Petange W 2-029.8 868 494 74.17% 18.62% 7.21%+2.66 +6.2 28
1987-04-12 Jeunesse Esch L 2-632.3 514 967 4.78% 17.98% 77.24%-3.21 -5.5 10
1987-04-12 @ Wiltz 71 W 6-232.3 967 514 77.24% 17.98% 4.78%+3.21 +5.5 33
1987-04-26 Union Luxembourg L 0-526.9 499 823 9.38% 18.98% 71.64%-2.29 -18.6 10
1987-04-26 @ Olympique Eischen W 5-026.9 823 499 71.64% 18.98% 9.38%+2.29 +18.6 22
1987-04-26 Wiltz 71 W 4-143.3 487 509 38.02% 20.08% 41.90%-0.14 +36.3 8
1987-04-26 @ CS Petange L 1-443.3 509 487 41.90% 20.08% 38.02%+0.14 -36.3 10
1987-05-03 Wiltz 71 W 3-244.3 656 473 62.75% 19.69% 17.56%+1.33 +6.8 20
1987-05-03 @ Alliance Dudelange L 2-344.3 473 656 17.56% 19.69% 62.75%-1.33 -6.7 10
1987-05-03 CS Petange D 1-154.3 952 524 76.91% 18.10% 4.99%+3.08 -6.6 32
1987-05-03 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-154.3 524 952 4.99% 18.10% 76.91%-3.08 +6.6 9
1987-05-03 Spora Luxembourg W 1-038.1 973 875 53.95% 19.97% 26.08%+0.72 +10.6 35
1987-05-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-138.1 875 973 26.08% 19.97% 53.95%-0.72 -10.7 28
1987-05-03 Swift Hesperange W 3-147.6 480 558 30.38% 20.03% 49.59%-0.54 +29.7 12
1987-05-03 @ Olympique Eischen L 1-347.6 558 480 49.59% 20.03% 30.38%+0.54 -29.7 12
1987-05-03 Differdange 03 D 1-153.7 664 698 36.24% 20.08% 43.68%-0.23 +0.6 21
1987-05-03 @ Progres Niedercorn D 1-153.7 698 664 43.68% 20.08% 36.24%+0.23 -0.6 19
1987-05-03 Grevenmacher W 3-028.7 841 538 71.32% 19.05% 9.63%+2.18 +11.9 24
1987-05-03 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-328.7 538 841 9.63% 19.05% 71.32%-2.18 -11.9 18
1987-05-10 Union Luxembourg L 1-240.9 697 853 21.57% 19.83% 58.60%-1.10 -8.5 19
1987-05-10 @ Differdange 03 W 2-140.9 853 697 58.60% 19.83% 21.57%+1.10 +8.5 26
1987-05-10 Olympique Eischen L 0-339.2 527 510 43.47% 20.08% 36.45%+0.14 -44.4 18
1987-05-10 @ Grevenmacher W 3-039.2 510 527 36.45% 20.08% 43.47%-0.14 +44.4 14
1987-05-10 Alliance Dudelange W 7-131.6 864 663 64.26% 19.61% 16.13%+1.45 +30.2 30
1987-05-10 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-731.6 663 864 16.13% 19.61% 64.26%-1.45 -30.2 20
1987-05-10 Avenir Beggen D 5-566.7 529 946 5.78% 18.29% 75.93%-2.95 +3.2 13
1987-05-10 @ Swift Hesperange D 5-566.7 946 529 75.93% 18.29% 5.78%+2.95 -3.1 33
1987-05-10 Jeunesse Esch D 0-050.8 530 983 4.77% 17.98% 77.25%-3.21 +7.5 10
1987-05-10 @ CS Petange D 0-050.8 983 530 77.25% 17.98% 4.77%+3.21 -7.5 36
1987-05-10 Progres Niedercorn L 0-331.3 466 664 17.67% 19.67% 62.66%-1.40 -20.8 10
1987-05-10 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-031.3 664 466 62.66% 19.67% 17.67%+1.40 +20.8 23
1987-05-17 Jeunesse Esch L 0-427.1 633 976 8.51% 18.85% 72.64%-2.43 -13.7 20
1987-05-17 @ Alliance Dudelange W 4-027.1 976 633 72.64% 18.85% 8.51%+2.43 +13.7 38
1987-05-17 Grevenmacher W 5-129.6 943 482 77.97% 17.82% 4.21%+3.30 +5.7 35
1987-05-17 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-529.6 482 943 4.21% 17.82% 77.97%-3.30 -5.7 18
1987-05-17 Differdange 03 W 1-047.1 554 689 23.81% 19.90% 56.29%-0.94 +20.4 16
1987-05-17 @ Olympique Eischen L 0-147.1 689 554 56.29% 19.90% 23.81%+0.94 -20.4 19
1987-05-17 Spora Luxembourg W 1-049.2 685 894 16.75% 19.62% 63.62%-1.47 +23.0 25
1987-05-17 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-149.2 894 685 63.62% 19.62% 16.75%+1.47 -23.0 30
1987-05-17 Wiltz 71 W 4-237.9 862 445 76.49% 18.20% 5.31%+2.99 +3.5 28
1987-05-17 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-437.9 445 862 5.31% 18.20% 76.49%-2.99 -3.5 10
1987-05-17 CS Petange W 10-037.4 532 538 40.25% 20.09% 39.66%-0.02 +128.3 15
1987-05-17 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-1037.4 538 532 39.66% 20.09% 40.25%+0.02 -128.3 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-10-26 11.61% Swift Hesperange 450 2 @ Union Luxembourg 717 1
2 1987-03-08 12.74% CS Petange 509 2 @ Differdange 03 757 1
3 1986-12-07 13.64% @ Swift Hesperange 492 4 Differdange 03 743 2
4 1987-03-15 15.68% @ Wiltz 71 511 3 Differdange 03 734 2
5 1987-05-17 16.75% @ Progres Niedercorn 685 1 Spora Luxembourg 894 0
6 1986-12-07 21.05% Alliance Dudelange 606 1 @ Progres Niedercorn 751 0
7 1986-09-14 21.67% @ Progres Niedercorn 552 1 CS Petange 707 0
8 1987-05-17 23.81% @ Olympique Eischen 554 1 Differdange 03 689 0
9 1986-11-23 24.16% Progres Niedercorn 720 2 @ Spora Luxembourg 835 0
10 1987-04-05 24.26% Swift Hesperange 535 2 @ Progres Niedercorn 650 0
11 1986-12-21 24.29% Union Luxembourg 720 1 @ Spora Luxembourg 834 0
12 1987-03-08 26.42% @ Avenir Beggen 875 3 Jeunesse Esch 986 1
13 1986-11-23 26.86% Swift Hesperange 470 3 @ CS Petange 562 2
14 1986-09-07 27.17% Grevenmacher 655 2 @ CS Petange 744 0
15 1986-11-30 27.20% Olympique Eischen 499 3 @ Wiltz 71 588 1
16 1986-11-02 27.24% Progres Niedercorn 666 2 @ Differdange 03 754 1
17 1986-09-14 27.94% Alliance Dudelange 647 3 @ Union Luxembourg 730 2
18 1986-12-14 28.11% @ Spora Luxembourg 806 4 Avenir Beggen 903 2
19 1987-05-03 30.38% @ Olympique Eischen 480 3 Swift Hesperange 558 1
20 1986-09-03 30.55% @ Union Luxembourg 678 3 Spora Luxembourg 756 0
21 1986-10-26 32.98% @ Progres Niedercorn 626 4 Grevenmacher 684 1
22 1986-11-02 34.22% @ Grevenmacher 644 1 Union Luxembourg 693 0
23 1986-12-14 35.32% Swift Hesperange 528 2 @ Wiltz 71 553 0
24 1987-05-10 36.45% Olympique Eischen 510 3 @ Grevenmacher 527 0
25 1987-04-26 38.02% @ CS Petange 487 4 Wiltz 71 509 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-05-17 128.28 @ Swift Hesperange 10 532 40.25% CS Petange 0 538 39.66% 20.09%
2 1987-03-08 62.68 @ Union Luxembourg 5 740 42.95% Progres Niedercorn 0 727 36.96% 20.08%
3 1987-04-12 52.12 Progres Niedercorn 4 611 41.80% @ Grevenmacher 0 591 38.11% 20.08%
4 1986-09-03 49.58 @ Union Luxembourg 3 678 30.55% Spora Luxembourg 0 756 49.43% 20.03%
5 1986-12-14 49.49 @ Differdange 03 6 708 45.07% Grevenmacher 1 679 34.86% 20.07%
6 1987-05-10 44.39 Olympique Eischen 3 510 36.45% @ Grevenmacher 0 527 43.47% 20.08%
7 1986-09-07 42.92 @ Spora Luxembourg 4 706 49.92% Olympique Eischen 0 641 30.05% 20.03%
8 1986-09-21 42.64 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 834 38.53% Avenir Beggen 0 852 41.39% 20.09%
9 1987-04-05 40.67 @ Alliance Dudelange 3 630 40.89% Grevenmacher 0 631 39.03% 20.09%
10 1986-10-26 39.98 @ Progres Niedercorn 4 626 32.98% Grevenmacher 1 684 46.96% 20.06%
11 1986-09-03 39.16 @ Avenir Beggen 4 796 53.08% Differdange 03 0 705 26.94% 19.98%
12 1986-11-02 38.31 Avenir Beggen 7 842 66.08% @ CS Petange 0 603 14.44% 19.48%
13 1986-11-23 38.26 Progres Niedercorn 2 720 24.16% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 835 55.92% 19.92%
14 1987-04-05 38.19 Swift Hesperange 2 535 24.26% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 650 55.81% 19.93%
15 1987-04-26 36.32 @ CS Petange 4 487 38.02% Wiltz 71 1 509 41.90% 20.08%
16 1986-09-07 36.28 Grevenmacher 2 655 27.17% @ CS Petange 0 744 52.84% 19.99%
17 1986-11-16 36.22 @ Progres Niedercorn 3 684 46.10% Wiltz 71 0 648 33.83% 20.07%
18 1986-12-07 35.45 @ Swift Hesperange 4 492 13.64% Differdange 03 2 743 66.94% 19.42%
19 1986-11-02 34.68 Jeunesse Esch 3 912 47.87% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 847 32.08% 20.05%
20 1986-10-26 34.54 @ Spora Luxembourg 5 812 61.96% CS Petange 0 638 18.31% 19.73%
21 1987-03-08 31.84 @ Avenir Beggen 3 875 26.42% Jeunesse Esch 1 986 53.62% 19.96%
22 1986-11-30 31.40 Olympique Eischen 3 499 27.20% @ Wiltz 71 1 588 52.81% 19.99%
23 1986-09-14 31.29 Wiltz 71 3 646 51.65% @ Swift Hesperange 0 551 28.35% 20.00%
24 1986-12-14 31.23 Swift Hesperange 2 528 35.32% @ Wiltz 71 0 553 44.60% 20.08%
25 1986-09-07 30.71 @ Differdange 03 3 666 52.28% Swift Hesperange 0 582 27.72% 20.00%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-05-10 66.7 @ Swift Hesperange 5 529 5.78% Avenir Beggen 5 946 75.93% 18.29%
2 1986-12-14 58.5 @ CS Petange 2 505 15.56% Progres Niedercorn 2 730 64.89% 19.55%
3 1986-09-03 58.4 @ Olympique Eischen 2 641 37.48% Wiltz 71 2 666 42.44% 20.08%
4 1986-09-07 58.4 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 810 52.03% Union Luxembourg 2 728 27.97% 20.00%
5 1987-03-15 58.4 @ Wiltz 71 3 511 15.68% Differdange 03 2 734 64.76% 19.56%
6 1986-12-07 56.8 @ Swift Hesperange 4 492 13.64% Differdange 03 2 743 66.94% 19.42%
7 1986-11-23 55.1 Swift Hesperange 3 470 26.86% @ CS Petange 2 562 53.16% 19.98%
8 1986-10-26 55.0 Swift Hesperange 2 450 11.61% @ Union Luxembourg 1 717 69.12% 19.27%
9 1986-09-14 54.8 Alliance Dudelange 3 647 27.94% @ Union Luxembourg 2 730 52.06% 20.00%
10 1987-03-08 54.7 CS Petange 2 509 12.74% @ Differdange 03 1 757 67.88% 19.38%
11 1987-05-03 54.3 @ Avenir Beggen 1 952 76.91% CS Petange 1 524 4.99% 18.10%
12 1986-10-26 54.0 @ Olympique Eischen 1 528 9.57% Avenir Beggen 1 848 71.42% 19.01%
13 1987-03-22 54.0 @ Grevenmacher 1 625 8.87% Jeunesse Esch 1 961 72.23% 18.91%
14 1986-10-05 53.8 @ Union Luxembourg 1 730 65.00% Olympique Eischen 1 520 15.43% 19.57%
15 1986-11-30 53.8 @ Differdange 03 1 740 20.91% Avenir Beggen 1 903 59.28% 19.81%
16 1986-09-14 53.7 @ Avenir Beggen 1 855 54.84% Spora Luxembourg 1 749 25.21% 19.95%
17 1986-09-21 53.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 573 23.32% Union Luxembourg 1 713 56.79% 19.89%
18 1986-09-21 53.7 @ Wiltz 71 1 677 43.18% Grevenmacher 1 662 36.73% 20.08%
19 1986-09-28 53.7 @ Differdange 03 1 751 51.11% Wiltz 71 1 677 28.87% 20.02%
20 1986-10-05 53.7 @ Wiltz 71 1 679 46.50% CS Petange 1 640 33.44% 20.07%
21 1986-11-02 53.7 @ Swift Hesperange 1 473 32.79% Olympique Eischen 1 533 47.16% 20.05%
22 1987-05-03 53.7 @ Progres Niedercorn 1 664 36.24% Differdange 03 1 698 43.68% 20.08%
23 1986-12-14 52.4 @ Spora Luxembourg 4 806 28.11% Avenir Beggen 2 903 51.89% 19.99%
24 1987-05-10 50.8 @ CS Petange 0 530 4.77% Jeunesse Esch 0 983 77.25% 17.98%
25 1986-11-02 50.6 @ Wiltz 71 3 635 41.76% Alliance Dudelange 2 630 38.15% 20.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-12-14 25.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 6 976 77.79% Olympique Eischen 0 521 4.34% 17.87%
2 1986-09-28 26.5 Jeunesse Esch 4 877 74.38% @ Swift Hesperange 0 498 7.04% 18.58%
3 1987-04-05 26.7 @ Spora Luxembourg 5 851 72.17% Wiltz 71 0 532 8.89% 18.95%
4 1987-04-26 26.9 Union Luxembourg 5 823 71.64% @ Olympique Eischen 0 499 9.38% 18.98%
5 1987-05-17 27.1 Jeunesse Esch 4 976 72.64% @ Alliance Dudelange 0 633 8.51% 18.85%
6 1986-11-23 28.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 7 950 74.00% Alliance Dudelange 1 594 7.32% 18.68%
7 1987-05-03 28.7 @ Union Luxembourg 3 841 71.32% Grevenmacher 0 538 9.63% 19.05%
8 1986-11-02 28.8 Avenir Beggen 7 842 66.08% @ CS Petange 0 603 14.44% 19.48%
9 1987-05-17 29.6 @ Avenir Beggen 5 943 77.97% Grevenmacher 1 482 4.21% 17.82%
10 1986-09-14 29.7 Jeunesse Esch 4 809 63.74% @ Olympique Eischen 0 598 16.64% 19.62%
11 1986-10-26 29.8 @ Spora Luxembourg 5 812 61.96% CS Petange 0 638 18.31% 19.73%
12 1987-04-12 29.8 Spora Luxembourg 2 868 74.17% @ CS Petange 0 494 7.21% 18.62%
13 1987-03-15 30.4 Union Luxembourg 7 802 68.33% @ CS Petange 1 532 12.35% 19.31%
14 1986-09-03 30.7 Jeunesse Esch 3 792 64.80% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 568 15.64% 19.56%
15 1987-05-10 31.3 Progres Niedercorn 3 664 62.66% @ Wiltz 71 0 466 17.67% 19.67%
16 1987-03-29 31.4 @ Avenir Beggen 2 919 68.65% Progres Niedercorn 0 660 12.03% 19.31%
17 1987-04-12 31.5 @ Avenir Beggen 4 947 77.44% Olympique Eischen 1 503 4.59% 17.97%
18 1987-05-10 31.6 @ Spora Luxembourg 7 864 64.26% Alliance Dudelange 1 663 16.13% 19.61%
19 1986-09-21 31.7 @ Spora Luxembourg 6 751 66.68% Swift Hesperange 1 520 13.86% 19.47%
20 1986-11-16 31.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 947 75.14% CS Petange 0 565 6.38% 18.48%
21 1987-03-15 32.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 955 75.92% Swift Hesperange 1 553 5.75% 18.33%
22 1986-12-07 32.2 @ Avenir Beggen 1 899 73.41% Wiltz 71 0 556 7.82% 18.77%
23 1987-04-12 32.3 Jeunesse Esch 6 967 77.24% @ Wiltz 71 2 514 4.78% 17.98%
24 1986-09-03 32.9 @ Avenir Beggen 4 796 53.08% Differdange 03 0 705 26.94% 19.98%
25 1987-03-15 33.3 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 819 62.38% Grevenmacher 0 640 17.92% 19.71%