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1995-96 Luxembourg National Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

48 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Mertzig

7.72 points above expected

37 points · 29.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Avenir Beggen

7.14 points below expected

31 points · 38.14 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 15 3 4 48 59 19 +40 44.18 +3.82
2 Grevenmacher 22 14 5 3 47 44 19 +25 42.94 +4.06
3 Union Luxembourg 22 12 6 4 42 43 18 +25 37.67 +4.33
4 F91 Dudelange 22 11 5 6 38 43 23 +20 35.21 +2.79
5 Sporting Mertzig 22 11 4 7 37 32 29 +3 29.28 +7.72
6 Avenir Beggen 22 9 4 9 31 38 33 +5 38.14 -7.14
7 Spora Luxembourg 22 7 6 9 27 35 34 +1 28.96 -1.96
8 Rodange 91 22 7 3 12 24 22 36 -14 26.62 -2.62
9 Wiltz 71 22 7 3 12 24 25 41 -16 21.41 +2.59
10 Aris Bonnevoie 22 5 6 11 21 32 52 -20 24.96 -3.96
11 CS Petange 22 6 1 15 19 20 46 -26 22.25 -3.25
12 Differdange 03 22 3 4 15 13 29 72 -43 19.39 -6.39

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sporting Mertzig 37 29.28 +7.72
2 Union Luxembourg 42 37.67 +4.33
3 Grevenmacher 47 42.94 +4.06
4 Jeunesse Esch 48 44.18 +3.82
5 F91 Dudelange 38 35.21 +2.79

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 31 38.14 -7.14
2 Differdange 03 13 19.39 -6.39
3 Aris Bonnevoie 21 24.96 -3.96
4 CS Petange 19 22.25 -3.25
5 Rodange 91 24 26.62 -2.62

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jeunesse Esch 6 Dec 17 – Mar 31 1 in 21
2 Aris Bonnevoie 2 May 12 – May 19 1 in 20
3 CS Petange 2 Nov 18 – Nov 26 1 in 16
4 Wiltz 71 2 Oct 22 – Nov 5 1 in 14
5 F91 Dudelange 5 Apr 21 – May 12 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 5 Oct 22 – Dec 3 1 in 858
2 Rodange 91 5 Apr 24 – May 19 1 in 71
3 CS Petange 5 Dec 3 – Mar 10 1 in 14
4 Aris Bonnevoie 2 Oct 15 – Oct 22 1 in 9
5 Differdange 03 3 Sep 17 – Sep 24 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union Luxembourg 8 Nov 26 – Mar 24 1 in 22
2 F91 Dudelange 7 Oct 15 – Mar 3 1 in 18
3 Grevenmacher 7 Oct 15 – Dec 17 1 in 10
4 Differdange 03 2 Dec 10 – Dec 17 1 in 7
5 Rodange 91 4 Dec 3 – Mar 10 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 5 Oct 22 – Dec 3 1 in 51
2 Spora Luxembourg 7 Oct 22 – Mar 3 1 in 31
3 Rodange 91 8 Mar 24 – May 19 1 in 24
4 Aris Bonnevoie 8 Dec 3 – Mar 31 1 in 16
5 F91 Dudelange 4 Dec 3 – Mar 10 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1402 48 +24 10 9.4 +0.6
Grevenmacher 1361 47 +7 8 8.8 -0.8
Union Luxembourg 1311 42 +8 10 7.9 +2.1
F91 Dudelange 1279 38 +20 12 9.9 +2.1
Sporting Mertzig 1198 37 +11 10 7.1 +2.9
Avenir Beggen 1298 31 -2 7 7.4 -0.4
Spora Luxembourg 1192 27 +1 5 6.4 -1.4
Wiltz 71 1096 24 +7 8 5.7 +2.3
Rodange 91 1118 24 -55 0 6.3 -6.3
Aris Bonnevoie 1111 21 +12 7 5.3 +1.7
CS Petange 1073 19 +4 6 4.8 +1.2
Differdange 03 1011 13 -37 1 5.2 -4.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB AB CP D0 FD GRE JE R9 SL SM UL W7
Aris Bonnevoie —
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.24
0-1-1
1.76
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.36
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
2.34
1-1-0
1.50
1-0-1
3.03
Avenir Beggen
1-1-0
3.86
 —
1-0-1
4.22
1-1-0
4.48
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.30
1-0-1
3.96
1-1-0
3.68
1-0-1
3.70
0-0-2
3.00
1-1-0
4.17
CS Petange
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
1.42
 —
1-0-1
3.24
0-0-2
1.77
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
1.21
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-2
1.47
2-0-0
2.69
Differdange 03
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-1
1.18
1-0-1
2.36
 —
0-1-1
1.31
1-0-1
1.09
1-0-1
0.94
0-0-2
2.19
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.06
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-2
2.49
F91 Dudelange
1-1-0
3.86
1-0-1
2.22
2-0-0
3.85
1-1-0
4.34
 —
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
1.75
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
3.46
1-1-0
2.61
2-0-0
3.96
Grevenmacher
1-1-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
4.55
1-0-1
4.58
2-0-0
3.40
 —
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
4.11
1-1-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.27
1-0-1
4.28
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
3.31
2-0-0
4.45
1-0-1
4.76
1-0-1
3.87
0-1-1
2.98
 —
2-0-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.01
1-1-0
4.06
0-1-1
3.47
2-0-0
4.49
Rodange 91
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
1.66
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
3.41
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-1
1.52
0-0-2
1.40
 —
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.57
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-1
3.20
Spora Luxembourg
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
1.93
2-0-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.87
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
1.68
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.98
 —
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
3.61
Sporting Mertzig
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
1.91
1-0-1
3.50
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
2.15
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
1.57
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.96
 —
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
3.48
Union Luxembourg
0-1-1
4.14
2-0-0
2.60
2-0-0
4.17
2-0-0
4.06
0-1-1
2.99
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.13
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.41
 —
1-0-1
3.93
Wiltz 71
1-0-1
2.57
0-1-1
1.46
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
1.67
1-0-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.17
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.00
0-1-1
2.13
1-0-1
1.71
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +8.6
Allowed 0.85 -6.6
Differential 0.95 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%10.61%4.55%4.55%1.89%2.65%29.55%
110.61%7.58%4.92%3.41%0.38%3.03%29.92%
24.55%4.92%3.79%1.89%0.76%1.14%17.05%
34.55%3.41%1.89%1.52%0.38%—11.74%
41.89%0.38%0.76%0.38%0.76%0.38%4.55%
5+2.65%3.03%1.14%—0.38%—7.20%
Total29.55%29.92%17.05%11.74%4.55%7.20%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.60 +0.00
SD 1.67 1.67 2.52
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%——4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%—9.09%40.91%
29.09%4.55%——4.55%—18.18%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%9.09%18.18%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.36 -0.91
SD 1.34 2.01 2.45
CV 0.92 0.85 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
14.55%13.64%9.09%———27.27%
24.55%————4.55%9.09%
39.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
44.55%————4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%27.27%4.55%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.50 +0.23
SD 1.55 1.71 2.29
CV 0.90 1.14 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.73%9.09%4.55%—4.55%40.91%
113.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%45.45%
2—4.55%————4.55%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%36.36%18.18%9.09%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 2.09 -1.18
SD 1.19 2.18 2.72
CV 1.31 1.04 —
Max 5 8 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—13.64%13.64%4.55%36.36%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%—9.09%27.27%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%27.27%
3———————
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total4.55%22.73%4.55%22.73%22.73%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 3.27 -1.95
SD 1.64 1.98 2.79
CV 1.25 0.61 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
113.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
213.64%—13.64%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%———4.55%—9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total50.00%13.64%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.05 +0.91
SD 1.53 1.25 2.16
CV 0.78 1.20 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
113.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
213.64%13.64%————27.27%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+—9.09%——4.55%—13.64%
Total40.91%45.45%4.55%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.86 +1.14
SD 1.77 1.04 1.55
CV 0.89 1.20 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%———4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%————13.64%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
318.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
Total40.91%45.45%9.09%——4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 0.86 +1.82
SD 2.23 1.13 2.63
CV 0.83 1.30 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
118.18%——9.09%——27.27%
24.55%—9.09%9.09%——22.73%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%13.64%13.64%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.64 -0.64
SD 1.02 1.56 2.11
CV 1.02 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%——4.55%31.82%
19.09%18.18%—4.55%—4.55%36.36%
2——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
3—9.09%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.55 +0.05
SD 1.94 1.53 2.57
CV 1.22 0.99 —
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%——31.82%
113.64%—4.55%4.55%——22.73%
2—13.64%9.09%———22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.32 +0.14
SD 1.34 1.13 1.81
CV 0.92 0.86 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
122.73%9.09%9.09%———40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4———————
5+9.09%—4.55%———13.64%
Total50.00%22.73%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.82 +1.14
SD 2.15 0.96 2.40
CV 1.10 1.17 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%—4.55%45.45%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
2—4.55%————4.55%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%31.82%13.64%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.86 -0.73
SD 1.39 1.49 2.10
CV 1.22 0.80 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1402 48 44.18 +3.82 78.0% 30 35 40 44 48 54 60
Grevenmacher 1361 47 42.94 +4.06 76.0% 31 32 39 43 47 51 55
Union Luxembourg 1311 42 37.67 +4.33 74.0% 22 26 34 38 43 47 48
Avenir Beggen 1298 31 38.14 -7.14 9.0% 23 29 34 37 42 48 55
F91 Dudelange 1279 38 35.21 +2.79 77.0% 21 27 32 36 38 43 48
Sporting Mertzig 1198 37 29.28 +7.72 89.0% 15 21 26 29 32 40 46
Spora Luxembourg 1192 27 28.96 -1.96 39.0% 14 19 26 29 32 36 50
Rodange 91 1118 24 26.62 -2.62 35.0% 14 17 23 27 29 37 40
Aris Bonnevoie 1111 21 24.96 -3.96 27.0% 14 17 21 25 28 34 45
Wiltz 71 1096 24 21.41 +2.59 70.0% 5 9 17 21 25 33 39
CS Petange 1073 19 22.25 -3.25 34.0% 9 13 18 22 26 32 48
Differdange 03 1011 13 19.39 -6.39 14.0% 5 8 16 19 23 28 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.30%
No Edge
43.18%18.94%37.88%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.44 Elo pts.
123 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.64 * Some Luck: 4.64 to 6.97 * Lucky: 6.97 to 9.29 * Wild Swing: 9.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.86 * Off: 1.86 to 2.48 * Way Off: 2.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.59 points
As Expected
05.8115
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.554
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
89.00%
Sporting Mertzig
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
9.00%
Avenir Beggen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 124.99
1.78
Moderate Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
75%
Clear Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Slight Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.63
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.88
Near-Lock
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Solid Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.098
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch41.00%25.00%20.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Grevenmacher29.00%35.00%19.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%—————
Union Luxembourg17.00%12.00%24.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%——
F91 Dudelange3.00%7.00%11.00%27.00%25.00%14.00%10.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%——
Sporting Mertzig1.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%8.00%18.00%22.00%14.00%7.00%16.00%1.00%2.00%
Avenir Beggen8.00%14.00%18.00%24.00%21.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%——1.00%—
Spora Luxembourg1.00%—3.00%7.00%10.00%19.00%17.00%22.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%
Rodange 91—1.00%—8.00%4.00%8.00%15.00%20.00%20.00%11.00%8.00%5.00%
Wiltz 71——1.00%—4.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%24.00%23.00%21.00%
Aris Bonnevoie—1.00%——5.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%15.00%18.00%16.00%10.00%
CS Petange—1.00%1.00%1.00%3.00%3.00%5.00%8.00%21.00%12.00%22.00%23.00%
Differdange 03——————6.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%27.00%37.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Avenir Beggen 99.00% 1.00%
Sporting Mertzig 97.00% 3.00%
Spora Luxembourg 96.00% 4.00%
Rodange 91 87.00% 13.00%
Aris Bonnevoie 74.00% 26.00%
Wiltz 71 56.00% 44.00%
CS Petange 55.00% 45.00%
Differdange 03 36.00% 64.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-09-17 Grevenmacher D 3-362.8 1166 1301 25.43% 19.34% 55.22%-0.95 +0.7 1
1995-09-17 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 3-362.8 1301 1166 55.22% 19.34% 25.43%+0.95 -0.7 1
1995-09-17 Sporting Mertzig L 0-435.6 1124 1167 36.97% 20.06% 42.97%-0.19 -22.1 0
1995-09-17 @ Differdange 03 W 4-035.6 1167 1124 42.97% 20.06% 36.97%+0.19 +22.1 3
1995-09-17 Rodange 91 W 5-034.3 1189 1167 46.11% 19.98% 33.91%+0.33 +25.3 3
1995-09-17 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-534.3 1167 1189 33.91% 19.98% 46.11%-0.33 -25.3 0
1995-09-17 Spora Luxembourg W 5-029.7 1342 1182 62.63% 18.29% 19.07%+1.45 +15.1 3
1995-09-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-529.7 1182 1342 19.07% 18.29% 62.63%-1.45 -15.1 0
1995-09-17 Union Luxembourg L 1-243.5 1132 1225 30.26% 19.78% 49.96%-0.61 -4.9 0
1995-09-17 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-143.5 1225 1132 49.96% 19.78% 30.26%+0.61 +4.9 3
1995-09-20 Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.8 1321 1166 62.21% 18.37% 19.42%+1.41 -1.6 1
1995-09-20 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-154.8 1166 1321 19.42% 18.37% 62.21%-1.41 +1.6 2
1995-09-20 Wiltz 71 W 1-035.2 1300 1127 64.09% 18.02% 17.89%+1.57 +3.2 4
1995-09-20 @ Grevenmacher L 0-135.2 1127 1300 17.89% 18.02% 64.09%-1.57 -3.2 0
1995-09-20 CS Petange W 3-029.6 1357 1136 68.49% 17.02% 14.50%+1.95 +7.2 6
1995-09-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-329.6 1136 1357 14.50% 17.02% 68.49%-1.95 -7.2 0
1995-09-20 F91 Dudelange L 0-241.6 1230 1214 45.18% 20.01% 34.81%+0.28 -13.7 3
1995-09-20 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-041.6 1214 1230 34.81% 20.01% 45.18%-0.28 +13.7 6
1995-09-20 Differdange 03 W 3-035.2 1141 1102 48.36% 19.88% 31.76%+0.47 +14.9 3
1995-09-20 @ Rodange 91 L 0-335.2 1102 1141 31.76% 19.88% 48.36%-0.47 -14.9 0
1995-09-20 Sporting Mertzig W 3-144.4 1167 1189 39.94% 20.09% 39.97%-0.02 +10.7 3
1995-09-20 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-344.4 1189 1167 39.97% 20.09% 39.94%+0.02 -10.7 3
1995-09-24 Jeunesse Esch L 1-240.3 1168 1364 19.54% 18.39% 62.07%-1.45 -3.3 2
1995-09-24 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 2-140.3 1364 1168 62.07% 18.39% 19.54%+1.45 +3.3 9
1995-09-24 Union Luxembourg L 0-732.1 1087 1216 26.13% 19.42% 54.45%-0.90 -27.8 0
1995-09-24 @ Differdange 03 W 7-032.1 1216 1087 54.45% 19.42% 26.13%+0.90 +27.8 6
1995-09-24 Grevenmacher L 0-336.0 1228 1304 32.55% 19.92% 47.54%-0.46 -15.2 6
1995-09-24 @ F91 Dudelange W 3-036.0 1304 1228 47.54% 19.92% 32.55%+0.46 +15.2 7
1995-09-24 Rodange 91 W 1-040.5 1178 1156 46.02% 19.98% 34.00%+0.33 +5.8 6
1995-09-24 @ Sporting Mertzig L 0-140.5 1156 1178 34.00% 19.98% 46.02%-0.33 -5.8 3
1995-09-24 Spora Luxembourg L 0-141.1 1129 1178 36.09% 20.04% 43.87%-0.25 -6.0 0
1995-09-24 @ CS Petange W 1-041.1 1178 1129 43.87% 20.04% 36.09%+0.25 +6.0 6
1995-09-24 Avenir Beggen D 0-051.1 1123 1320 19.54% 18.39% 62.07%-1.45 +1.8 1
1995-09-24 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-051.1 1320 1123 62.07% 18.39% 19.54%+1.45 -1.8 2
1995-10-01 F91 Dudelange W 3-246.3 1318 1213 56.66% 19.18% 24.16%+1.01 +3.8 5
1995-10-01 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-346.3 1213 1318 24.16% 19.18% 56.66%-1.01 -3.8 6
1995-10-01 Differdange 03 L 1-254.9 1319 1060 71.76% 16.10% 12.14%+2.26 -10.3 7
1995-10-01 @ Grevenmacher W 2-154.9 1060 1319 12.14% 16.10% 71.76%-2.26 +10.3 3
1995-10-01 Wiltz 71 W 2-031.0 1367 1125 70.36% 16.51% 13.13%+2.12 +4.5 12
1995-10-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-231.0 1125 1367 13.13% 16.51% 70.36%-2.12 -4.5 1
1995-10-01 Sporting Mertzig D 2-258.7 1244 1184 51.18% 19.70% 29.12%+0.64 -0.6 7
1995-10-01 @ Union Luxembourg D 2-258.7 1184 1244 29.12% 19.70% 51.18%-0.64 +0.6 7
1995-10-01 Rodange 91 L 0-144.5 1184 1150 47.64% 19.91% 32.45%+0.42 -7.6 6
1995-10-01 @ Spora Luxembourg W 1-044.5 1150 1184 32.45% 19.91% 47.64%-0.42 +7.6 6
1995-10-01 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-239.0 1123 1164 37.14% 20.06% 42.80%-0.19 -11.7 0
1995-10-01 @ CS Petange W 2-039.0 1164 1123 42.80% 20.06% 37.14%+0.19 +11.7 5
1995-10-15 Spora Luxembourg L 0-437.4 1176 1177 42.92% 20.06% 37.01%+0.15 -24.9 5
1995-10-15 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-037.4 1177 1176 37.01% 20.06% 42.92%-0.15 +24.9 9
1995-10-15 Avenir Beggen L 0-428.3 1070 1322 15.23% 17.26% 67.51%-1.90 -9.8 3
1995-10-15 @ Differdange 03 W 4-028.3 1322 1070 67.51% 17.26% 15.23%+1.90 +9.8 8
1995-10-15 Jeunesse Esch W 5-042.0 1209 1372 22.63% 18.96% 58.41%-1.18 +40.1 9
1995-10-15 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-542.0 1372 1209 58.41% 18.96% 22.63%+1.18 -40.1 12
1995-10-15 Union Luxembourg L 0-335.2 1158 1244 31.25% 19.85% 48.90%-0.55 -14.7 6
1995-10-15 @ Rodange 91 W 3-035.2 1244 1158 48.90% 19.85% 31.25%+0.55 +14.7 10
1995-10-15 Grevenmacher L 0-236.0 1184 1308 26.68% 19.48% 53.84%-0.86 -8.8 7
1995-10-15 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-036.0 1308 1184 53.84% 19.48% 26.68%+0.86 +8.8 10
1995-10-15 CS Petange L 0-537.3 1121 1112 44.27% 20.03% 35.70%+0.22 -31.5 1
1995-10-15 @ Wiltz 71 W 5-037.3 1112 1121 35.70% 20.03% 44.27%-0.22 +31.5 3
1995-10-22 Wiltz 71 L 2-451.4 1151 1089 51.36% 19.69% 28.95%+0.66 -11.8 5
1995-10-22 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 4-251.4 1089 1151 28.95% 19.69% 51.36%-0.66 +11.8 4
1995-10-22 Sporting Mertzig L 0-148.8 1332 1175 62.31% 18.35% 19.34%+1.42 -9.6 8
1995-10-22 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-048.8 1175 1332 19.34% 18.35% 62.31%-1.42 +9.7 10
1995-10-22 Rodange 91 W 1-035.2 1317 1143 64.12% 18.01% 17.87%+1.57 +3.2 13
1995-10-22 @ Grevenmacher L 0-135.2 1143 1317 17.87% 18.01% 64.12%-1.57 -3.2 6
1995-10-22 Differdange 03 W 3-028.0 1332 1060 72.75% 15.79% 11.46%+2.36 +5.6 15
1995-10-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-328.0 1060 1332 11.46% 15.79% 72.75%-2.36 -5.6 3
1995-10-22 Spora Luxembourg D 0-050.7 1258 1201 50.71% 19.73% 29.56%+0.61 -0.8 11
1995-10-22 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-050.7 1201 1258 29.56% 19.73% 50.71%-0.61 +0.8 10
1995-10-22 F91 Dudelange L 0-138.9 1143 1249 28.75% 19.67% 51.58%-0.71 -5.0 3
1995-10-22 @ CS Petange W 1-038.9 1249 1143 51.58% 19.67% 28.75%+0.71 +5.0 12
1995-11-05 CS Petange W 7-141.0 1054 1138 31.49% 19.86% 48.65%-0.53 +33.4 6
1995-11-05 @ Differdange 03 L 1-741.0 1138 1054 48.65% 19.86% 31.49%+0.53 -33.4 3
1995-11-05 Aris Bonnevoie D 0-050.8 1254 1139 57.79% 19.04% 23.17%+1.09 -1.4 13
1995-11-05 @ F91 Dudelange D 0-050.8 1139 1254 23.17% 19.04% 57.79%-1.09 +1.4 6
1995-11-05 Grevenmacher L 1-245.4 1257 1320 34.18% 19.99% 45.84%-0.36 -5.5 11
1995-11-05 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-145.4 1320 1257 45.84% 19.99% 34.18%+0.36 +5.5 16
1995-11-05 Avenir Beggen W 2-045.8 1140 1322 20.82% 18.65% 60.53%-1.33 +17.7 9
1995-11-05 @ Rodange 91 L 0-245.8 1322 1140 60.53% 18.65% 20.82%+1.33 -17.7 8
1995-11-05 Wiltz 71 L 1-348.9 1202 1101 56.20% 19.23% 24.56%+0.97 -14.3 10
1995-11-05 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-148.9 1101 1202 24.56% 19.23% 56.20%-0.97 +14.3 7
1995-11-05 Jeunesse Esch D 0-051.1 1185 1337 23.68% 19.12% 57.20%-1.09 +1.4 11
1995-11-05 @ Sporting Mertzig D 0-051.1 1337 1185 57.20% 19.12% 23.68%+1.09 -1.4 16
1995-11-18 Avenir Beggen W 2-152.8 1105 1304 19.26% 18.33% 62.41%-1.48 +9.1 6
1995-11-18 @ CS Petange L 1-252.8 1304 1105 62.41% 18.33% 19.26%+1.48 -9.1 8
1995-11-26 Differdange 03 W 5-137.2 1141 1088 50.20% 19.77% 30.03%+0.58 +15.5 9
1995-11-26 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 1-537.2 1088 1141 30.03% 19.77% 50.20%-0.58 -15.5 6
1995-11-26 Union Luxembourg L 0-145.4 1295 1252 48.90% 19.85% 31.26%+0.50 -7.8 8
1995-11-26 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-045.4 1252 1295 31.26% 19.85% 48.90%-0.50 +7.8 14
1995-11-26 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.8 1326 1188 60.38% 18.67% 20.95%+1.27 -1.5 17
1995-11-26 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.8 1188 1326 20.95% 18.67% 60.38%-1.27 +1.5 11
1995-11-26 Rodange 91 W 3-243.8 1336 1158 64.53% 17.93% 17.54%+1.60 +2.8 19
1995-11-26 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-343.8 1158 1336 17.54% 17.93% 64.53%-1.60 -2.8 9
1995-11-26 Sporting Mertzig W 1-044.4 1114 1186 32.89% 19.93% 47.17%-0.44 +7.5 9
1995-11-26 @ CS Petange L 0-144.4 1186 1114 47.17% 19.93% 32.89%+0.44 -7.5 11
1995-11-26 F91 Dudelange L 0-235.3 1115 1253 25.23% 19.32% 55.45%-0.97 -8.4 7
1995-11-26 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-035.3 1253 1115 55.45% 19.32% 25.23%+0.97 +8.4 16
1995-12-03 Wiltz 71 L 1-343.7 1072 1107 38.04% 20.08% 41.89%-0.13 -10.3 6
1995-12-03 @ Differdange 03 W 3-143.7 1107 1072 41.89% 20.08% 38.04%+0.13 +10.3 10
1995-12-03 Avenir Beggen W 6-450.1 1324 1287 48.09% 19.89% 32.02%+0.45 +7.3 20
1995-12-03 @ Grevenmacher L 4-650.1 1287 1324 32.02% 19.89% 48.09%-0.45 -7.3 8
1995-12-03 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.9 1260 1339 32.09% 19.89% 48.01%-0.49 +0.6 15
1995-12-03 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-154.9 1339 1260 48.01% 19.89% 32.09%+0.49 -0.6 20
1995-12-03 CS Petange W 1-039.9 1155 1121 47.64% 19.91% 32.45%+0.42 +5.5 12
1995-12-03 @ Rodange 91 L 0-139.9 1121 1155 32.45% 19.91% 47.64%-0.42 -5.5 9
1995-12-03 F91 Dudelange D 2-258.7 1189 1261 33.01% 19.94% 47.05%-0.43 +0.4 12
1995-12-03 @ Spora Luxembourg D 2-258.7 1261 1189 47.05% 19.94% 33.01%+0.43 -0.4 17
1995-12-03 Aris Bonnevoie W 2-144.6 1179 1156 46.15% 19.97% 33.88%+0.34 +5.4 14
1995-12-03 @ Sporting Mertzig L 1-244.6 1156 1179 33.88% 19.97% 46.15%-0.34 -5.4 9
1995-12-10 Rodange 91 L 0-142.7 1151 1161 41.61% 20.08% 38.31%+0.07 -6.8 9
1995-12-10 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 1-042.7 1161 1151 38.31% 20.08% 41.61%-0.07 +6.8 15
1995-12-10 Spora Luxembourg W 3-246.6 1280 1190 54.90% 19.38% 25.72%+0.89 +4.0 11
1995-12-10 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-346.6 1190 1280 25.72% 19.38% 54.90%-0.89 -4.0 12
1995-12-10 Differdange 03 D 2-259.2 1261 1062 66.52% 17.50% 15.98%+1.77 -1.4 18
1995-12-10 @ F91 Dudelange D 2-259.2 1062 1261 15.98% 17.50% 66.52%-1.77 +1.4 7
1995-12-10 Grevenmacher L 0-144.9 1338 1332 43.90% 20.04% 36.06%+0.20 -7.1 20
1995-12-10 @ Jeunesse Esch W 1-044.9 1332 1338 36.06% 20.04% 43.90%-0.20 +7.1 23
1995-12-10 Union Luxembourg L 0-832.1 1116 1260 24.46% 19.22% 56.31%-1.03 -29.8 9
1995-12-10 @ CS Petange W 8-032.1 1260 1116 56.31% 19.22% 24.46%+1.03 +29.8 18
1995-12-10 Sporting Mertzig L 0-335.9 1117 1184 33.64% 19.97% 46.40%-0.40 -15.6 10
1995-12-10 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-035.9 1184 1117 46.40% 19.97% 33.64%+0.40 +15.6 17
1995-12-17 Jeunesse Esch L 2-642.5 1284 1331 36.33% 20.05% 43.62%-0.23 -15.4 11
1995-12-17 @ Avenir Beggen W 6-242.5 1331 1284 43.62% 20.05% 36.33%+0.23 +15.4 23
1995-12-17 CS Petange W 2-137.2 1339 1086 71.24% 16.25% 12.50%+2.21 +2.1 26
1995-12-17 @ Grevenmacher L 1-237.2 1086 1339 12.50% 16.25% 71.24%-2.21 -2.1 9
1995-12-17 Aris Bonnevoie D 3-362.9 1290 1144 61.26% 18.53% 20.21%+1.34 -0.9 19
1995-12-17 @ Union Luxembourg D 3-362.9 1144 1290 20.21% 18.53% 61.26%-1.34 +0.9 10
1995-12-17 Wiltz 71 W 1-038.7 1167 1102 51.83% 19.65% 28.52%+0.68 +5.0 18
1995-12-17 @ Rodange 91 L 0-138.7 1102 1167 28.52% 19.65% 51.83%-0.68 -5.0 10
1995-12-17 Differdange 03 D 1-154.3 1186 1063 58.64% 18.93% 22.43%+1.15 -1.3 13
1995-12-17 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.3 1063 1186 22.43% 18.93% 58.64%-1.15 +1.3 8
1996-03-03 Avenir Beggen L 0-532.0 1145 1269 26.72% 19.48% 53.79%-0.86 -20.6 10
1996-03-03 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 5-032.0 1269 1145 53.79% 19.48% 26.72%+0.86 +20.7 14
1996-03-03 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.5 1259 1289 38.73% 20.08% 41.19%-0.09 +0.1 19
1996-03-03 @ F91 Dudelange D 1-154.5 1289 1259 41.19% 20.08% 38.73%+0.09 -0.1 20
1996-03-03 Spora Luxembourg W 1-040.8 1200 1184 45.17% 20.01% 34.82%+0.28 +5.9 20
1996-03-03 @ Sporting Mertzig L 0-140.8 1184 1200 34.82% 20.01% 45.17%-0.28 -5.9 13
1996-03-03 Jeunesse Esch L 1-335.9 1084 1346 14.51% 17.02% 68.46%-1.99 -4.3 9
1996-03-03 @ CS Petange W 3-135.9 1346 1084 68.46% 17.02% 14.51%+1.99 +4.3 26
1996-03-03 Grevenmacher W 1-049.7 1097 1341 15.78% 17.43% 66.79%-1.84 +10.3 13
1996-03-03 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-149.7 1341 1097 66.79% 17.43% 15.78%+1.84 -10.3 26
1996-03-10 Wiltz 71 W 3-136.9 1289 1107 64.95% 17.84% 17.21%+1.64 +5.1 17
1996-03-10 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-336.9 1107 1289 17.21% 17.84% 64.95%-1.64 -5.1 13
1996-03-10 F91 Dudelange W 2-036.8 1331 1259 52.54% 19.59% 27.87%+0.73 +9.2 29
1996-03-10 @ Grevenmacher L 0-236.8 1259 1331 27.87% 19.59% 52.54%-0.73 -9.2 19
1996-03-10 Aris Bonnevoie W 7-130.0 1351 1124 69.02% 16.88% 14.10%+2.00 +11.0 29
1996-03-10 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-730.0 1124 1351 14.10% 16.88% 69.02%-2.00 -11.0 10
1996-03-10 Differdange 03 W 5-236.6 1289 1065 68.84% 16.93% 14.24%+1.98 +5.1 23
1996-03-10 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-536.6 1065 1289 14.24% 16.93% 68.84%-1.98 -5.1 8
1996-03-10 Sporting Mertzig D 2-258.5 1172 1206 38.20% 20.08% 41.72%-0.12 +0.1 19
1996-03-10 @ Rodange 91 D 2-258.5 1206 1172 41.72% 20.08% 38.20%+0.12 -0.1 21
1996-03-10 CS Petange W 1-037.4 1178 1080 55.93% 19.26% 24.80%+0.96 +4.4 16
1996-03-10 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-137.4 1080 1178 24.80% 19.26% 55.93%-0.96 -4.4 9
1996-03-18 CS Petange D 1-154.0 1113 1075 48.24% 19.88% 31.88%+0.46 -0.6 11
1996-03-18 @ Aris Bonnevoie D 1-154.0 1075 1113 31.88% 19.88% 48.24%-0.46 +0.6 10
1996-03-18 Grevenmacher L 1-630.3 1060 1340 13.40% 16.62% 69.99%-2.13 -8.8 8
1996-03-18 @ Differdange 03 W 6-130.3 1340 1060 69.99% 16.62% 13.40%+2.13 +8.8 32
1996-03-18 Avenir Beggen W 2-041.3 1250 1294 36.72% 20.06% 43.22%-0.21 +13.2 22
1996-03-18 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-241.3 1294 1250 43.22% 20.06% 36.72%+0.21 -13.2 17
1996-03-18 Spora Luxembourg L 1-344.8 1172 1183 41.50% 20.08% 38.42%+0.06 -11.1 19
1996-03-18 @ Rodange 91 W 3-144.8 1183 1172 38.42% 20.08% 41.50%-0.06 +11.0 19
1996-03-18 Union Luxembourg L 0-237.4 1206 1294 30.89% 19.82% 49.28%-0.57 -10.0 21
1996-03-18 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-037.4 1294 1206 49.28% 19.82% 30.89%+0.57 +10.0 26
1996-03-18 Jeunesse Esch L 1-630.9 1102 1362 14.70% 17.09% 68.21%-1.97 -9.7 13
1996-03-18 @ Wiltz 71 W 6-130.9 1362 1102 68.21% 17.09% 14.70%+1.97 +9.7 32
1996-03-20 Rodange 91 L 0-334.1 1051 1161 28.23% 19.63% 52.14%-0.75 -13.5 8
1996-03-20 @ Differdange 03 W 3-034.1 1161 1051 52.14% 19.63% 28.23%+0.75 +13.5 22
1996-03-20 F91 Dudelange W 2-148.6 1196 1264 33.55% 19.96% 46.49%-0.40 +7.0 24
1996-03-20 @ Sporting Mertzig L 1-248.6 1264 1196 46.49% 19.96% 33.55%+0.40 -7.0 22
1996-03-24 Differdange 03 D 1-155.1 1281 1037 70.51% 16.47% 13.02%+2.14 -2.2 18
1996-03-24 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-155.1 1037 1281 13.02% 16.47% 70.51%-2.14 +2.2 9
1996-03-24 Sporting Mertzig W 2-140.6 1349 1203 61.23% 18.54% 20.24%+1.34 +3.4 35
1996-03-24 @ Grevenmacher L 1-240.6 1203 1349 20.24% 18.54% 61.23%-1.34 -3.4 24
1996-03-24 F91 Dudelange W 1-037.9 1371 1256 57.81% 19.04% 23.15%+1.09 +4.1 35
1996-03-24 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-137.9 1256 1371 23.15% 19.04% 57.81%-1.09 -4.1 22
1996-03-24 Rodange 91 W 1-036.7 1304 1175 59.45% 18.81% 21.74%+1.21 +3.9 29
1996-03-24 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-136.7 1175 1304 21.74% 18.81% 59.45%-1.21 -3.9 22
1996-03-24 Aris Bonnevoie W 6-135.0 1194 1113 53.78% 19.49% 26.73%+0.81 +17.1 22
1996-03-24 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-635.0 1113 1194 26.73% 19.49% 53.78%-0.81 -17.1 11
1996-03-24 Wiltz 71 W 1-042.0 1076 1092 40.63% 20.09% 39.28%+0.02 +6.5 13
1996-03-24 @ CS Petange L 0-142.0 1092 1076 39.28% 20.09% 40.63%-0.02 -6.5 13
1996-03-31 CS Petange W 2-032.0 1279 1082 66.34% 17.54% 16.13%+1.75 +5.5 21
1996-03-31 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-232.0 1082 1279 16.13% 17.54% 66.34%-1.75 -5.5 13
1996-03-31 Aris Bonnevoie W 3-135.1 1352 1096 71.53% 16.17% 12.30%+2.24 +3.6 38
1996-03-31 @ Grevenmacher L 1-335.1 1096 1352 12.30% 16.17% 71.53%-2.24 -3.6 11
1996-03-31 Wiltz 71 L 1-254.2 1308 1086 68.66% 16.97% 14.37%+1.96 -9.9 29
1996-03-31 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-154.2 1086 1308 14.37% 16.97% 68.66%-1.96 +9.9 16
1996-03-31 F91 Dudelange D 2-258.7 1171 1252 31.77% 19.88% 48.35%-0.51 +0.4 23
1996-03-31 @ Rodange 91 D 2-258.7 1252 1171 48.35% 19.88% 31.77%+0.51 -0.4 23
1996-03-31 Jeunesse Esch L 1-634.3 1211 1376 22.45% 18.93% 58.62%-1.19 -14.6 22
1996-03-31 @ Spora Luxembourg W 6-134.3 1376 1211 58.62% 18.93% 22.45%+1.19 +14.6 38
1996-03-31 Differdange 03 W 3-243.9 1199 1040 62.70% 18.28% 19.02%+1.45 +3.1 27
1996-03-31 @ Sporting Mertzig L 2-343.9 1040 1199 19.02% 18.28% 62.70%-1.45 -3.1 9
1996-04-21 Jeunesse Esch W 1-051.5 1036 1390 9.54% 14.78% 75.67%-2.73 +11.4 12
1996-04-21 @ Differdange 03 L 0-151.5 1390 1036 75.67% 14.78% 9.54%+2.73 -11.4 38
1996-04-21 CS Petange W 4-134.9 1252 1077 64.25% 17.98% 17.77%+1.58 +7.4 26
1996-04-21 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-434.9 1077 1252 17.77% 17.98% 64.25%-1.58 -7.4 13
1996-04-21 Grevenmacher D 0-051.3 1171 1356 20.59% 18.61% 60.80%-1.35 +1.7 24
1996-04-21 @ Rodange 91 D 0-051.3 1356 1171 60.80% 18.61% 20.59%+1.35 -1.7 39
1996-04-21 Union Luxembourg L 0-139.3 1196 1298 29.26% 19.71% 51.02%-0.68 -5.1 22
1996-04-21 @ Spora Luxembourg W 1-039.3 1298 1196 51.02% 19.71% 29.26%+0.68 +5.1 32
1996-04-21 Avenir Beggen L 0-335.6 1202 1285 31.69% 19.87% 48.44%-0.52 -14.9 27
1996-04-21 @ Sporting Mertzig W 3-035.6 1285 1202 48.44% 19.87% 31.69%+0.52 +14.9 24
1996-04-21 Aris Bonnevoie L 1-247.4 1096 1092 43.51% 20.05% 36.44%+0.18 -6.6 16
1996-04-21 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-147.4 1092 1096 36.44% 20.05% 43.51%-0.18 +6.6 14
1996-04-24 F91 Dudelange L 0-136.8 1099 1259 22.83% 18.99% 58.18%-1.16 -4.1 14
1996-04-24 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 1-036.8 1259 1099 58.18% 18.99% 22.83%+1.16 +4.1 29
1996-04-24 Rodange 91 W 3-032.3 1299 1173 59.11% 18.86% 22.03%+1.18 +10.8 27
1996-04-24 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-332.3 1173 1299 22.03% 18.86% 59.11%-1.18 -10.8 24
1996-04-24 Union Luxembourg D 0-051.8 1354 1303 49.90% 19.79% 30.31%+0.56 -0.8 40
1996-04-24 @ Grevenmacher D 0-051.8 1303 1354 30.31% 19.79% 49.90%-0.56 +0.8 33
1996-04-24 Sporting Mertzig W 3-030.7 1379 1188 65.80% 17.66% 16.54%+1.71 +8.2 41
1996-04-24 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-330.7 1188 1379 16.54% 17.66% 65.80%-1.71 -8.2 27
1996-04-24 Differdange 03 W 1-040.4 1069 1048 45.97% 19.98% 34.05%+0.33 +5.8 16
1996-04-24 @ CS Petange L 0-140.4 1048 1069 34.05% 19.98% 45.97%-0.33 -5.8 12
1996-04-24 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.1 1089 1191 29.21% 19.71% 51.08%-0.68 +0.8 17
1996-04-24 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-154.1 1191 1089 51.08% 19.71% 29.21%+0.68 -0.8 23
1996-04-28 Aris Bonnevoie D 4-464.6 1042 1095 35.58% 20.03% 44.39%-0.28 +0.2 13
1996-04-28 @ Differdange 03 D 4-464.6 1095 1042 44.39% 20.03% 35.58%+0.28 -0.2 15
1996-04-28 Wiltz 71 W 3-030.6 1263 1090 64.08% 18.02% 17.90%+1.56 +8.8 32
1996-04-28 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-330.6 1090 1263 17.90% 18.02% 64.08%-1.56 -8.8 17
1996-04-28 Avenir Beggen W 2-146.7 1304 1310 42.12% 20.07% 37.81%+0.10 +5.9 36
1996-04-28 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-246.7 1310 1304 37.81% 20.07% 42.12%-0.10 -5.9 27
1996-04-28 Jeunesse Esch L 0-429.6 1162 1387 17.22% 17.84% 64.94%-1.68 -11.1 24
1996-04-28 @ Rodange 91 W 4-029.6 1387 1162 64.94% 17.84% 17.22%+1.68 +11.1 44
1996-04-28 Grevenmacher L 0-234.8 1191 1353 22.64% 18.96% 58.40%-1.18 -7.6 23
1996-04-28 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-034.8 1353 1191 58.40% 18.96% 22.64%+1.18 +7.6 43
1996-04-28 CS Petange W 2-141.4 1179 1075 56.57% 19.19% 24.24%+1.00 +4.0 30
1996-04-28 @ Sporting Mertzig L 1-241.4 1075 1179 24.24% 19.19% 56.57%-1.00 -4.0 16
1996-05-05 Sporting Mertzig L 1-341.5 1094 1183 30.83% 19.82% 49.35%-0.57 -8.7 15
1996-05-05 @ Aris Bonnevoie W 3-141.5 1183 1094 49.35% 19.82% 30.83%+0.57 +8.6 33
1996-05-05 Grevenmacher W 1-045.1 1304 1361 35.03% 20.01% 44.95%-0.31 +7.2 30
1996-05-05 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-145.1 1361 1304 44.95% 20.01% 35.03%+0.31 -7.2 43
1996-05-05 Spora Luxembourg W 1-038.0 1272 1183 54.78% 19.39% 25.84%+0.88 +4.5 35
1996-05-05 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-138.0 1183 1272 25.84% 19.39% 54.78%-0.88 -4.5 23
1996-05-05 Union Luxembourg L 0-148.3 1398 1310 54.63% 19.40% 25.97%+0.87 -8.6 44
1996-05-05 @ Jeunesse Esch W 1-048.3 1310 1398 25.97% 19.40% 54.63%-0.87 +8.6 39
1996-05-05 Differdange 03 W 4-245.6 1081 1042 48.32% 19.88% 31.80%+0.47 +8.0 20
1996-05-05 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-445.6 1042 1081 31.80% 19.88% 48.32%-0.47 -8.0 13
1996-05-12 F91 Dudelange L 0-428.5 1034 1277 15.90% 17.47% 66.63%-1.83 -10.3 13
1996-05-12 @ Differdange 03 W 4-028.5 1277 1034 66.63% 17.47% 15.90%+1.83 +10.3 38
1996-05-12 Jeunesse Esch D 1-156.4 1354 1389 37.88% 20.08% 42.05%-0.14 +0.2 44
1996-05-12 @ Grevenmacher D 1-156.4 1389 1354 42.05% 20.08% 37.88%+0.14 -0.1 45
1996-05-12 CS Petange W 1-033.1 1319 1071 70.80% 16.38% 12.81%+2.17 +2.3 42
1996-05-12 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-133.1 1071 1319 12.81% 16.38% 70.80%-2.17 -2.3 16
1996-05-12 Aris Bonnevoie L 0-243.2 1151 1086 51.79% 19.65% 28.56%+0.68 -15.4 24
1996-05-12 @ Rodange 91 W 2-043.2 1086 1151 28.56% 19.65% 51.79%-0.68 +15.4 18
1996-05-12 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.5 1178 1312 25.69% 19.37% 54.94%-0.93 +1.1 24
1996-05-12 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.5 1312 1178 54.94% 19.37% 25.69%+0.93 -1.0 31
1996-05-12 Wiltz 71 D 0-050.6 1192 1089 56.43% 19.21% 24.36%+0.99 -1.3 34
1996-05-12 @ Sporting Mertzig D 0-050.6 1089 1192 24.36% 19.21% 56.43%-0.99 +1.3 21
1996-05-15 Rodange 91 W 3-146.2 1069 1136 33.65% 19.97% 46.38%-0.40 +12.1 19
1996-05-15 @ CS Petange L 1-346.2 1136 1069 46.38% 19.97% 33.65%+0.40 -12.1 24
1996-05-19 Union Luxembourg W 1-049.1 1101 1321 17.61% 17.94% 64.44%-1.64 +10.0 21
1996-05-19 @ Aris Bonnevoie L 0-149.1 1321 1101 64.44% 17.94% 17.61%+1.64 -10.0 42
1996-05-19 Spora Luxembourg L 2-735.5 1024 1179 23.36% 19.07% 57.58%-1.12 -12.7 13
1996-05-19 @ Differdange 03 W 7-235.5 1179 1024 57.58% 19.07% 23.36%+1.12 +12.7 27
1996-05-19 Sporting Mertzig L 3-458.6 1287 1191 55.62% 19.30% 25.08%+0.93 -7.6 38
1996-05-19 @ F91 Dudelange W 4-358.6 1191 1287 25.08% 19.30% 55.62%-0.93 +7.6 37
1996-05-19 Avenir Beggen W 3-035.5 1389 1310 53.50% 19.51% 26.99%+0.79 +12.9 48
1996-05-19 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-335.5 1310 1389 26.99% 19.51% 53.50%-0.79 -12.9 31
1996-05-19 Grevenmacher L 1-531.7 1081 1354 13.85% 16.79% 69.36%-2.07 -7.4 19
1996-05-19 @ CS Petange W 5-131.7 1354 1081 69.36% 16.79% 13.85%+2.07 +7.4 47
1996-05-19 Rodange 91 W 3-251.3 1090 1124 38.24% 20.08% 41.68%-0.12 +6.1 24
1996-05-19 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-351.3 1124 1090 41.68% 20.08% 38.24%+0.12 -6.1 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-04-21 9.54% @ Differdange 03 1036 1 Jeunesse Esch 1390 0
2 1995-10-01 12.14% Differdange 03 1060 2 @ Grevenmacher 1319 1
3 1996-03-31 14.37% Wiltz 71 1086 2 @ Union Luxembourg 1308 1
4 1996-03-03 15.78% @ Wiltz 71 1097 1 Grevenmacher 1341 0
5 1996-05-19 17.61% @ Aris Bonnevoie 1101 1 Union Luxembourg 1321 0
6 1995-11-18 19.26% @ CS Petange 1105 2 Avenir Beggen 1304 1
7 1995-10-22 19.34% Sporting Mertzig 1175 1 @ Avenir Beggen 1332 0
8 1995-11-05 20.82% @ Rodange 91 1140 2 Avenir Beggen 1322 0
9 1995-10-15 22.63% @ F91 Dudelange 1209 5 Jeunesse Esch 1372 0
10 1995-11-05 24.56% Wiltz 71 1101 3 @ Spora Luxembourg 1202 1
11 1996-05-19 25.08% Sporting Mertzig 1191 4 @ F91 Dudelange 1287 3
12 1996-05-05 25.97% Union Luxembourg 1310 1 @ Jeunesse Esch 1398 0
13 1996-05-12 28.56% Aris Bonnevoie 1086 2 @ Rodange 91 1151 0
14 1995-10-22 28.95% Wiltz 71 1089 4 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1151 2
15 1995-11-26 31.26% Union Luxembourg 1252 1 @ Avenir Beggen 1295 0
16 1995-11-05 31.49% @ Differdange 03 1054 7 CS Petange 1138 1
17 1995-10-01 32.45% Rodange 91 1150 1 @ Spora Luxembourg 1184 0
18 1995-11-26 32.89% @ CS Petange 1114 1 Sporting Mertzig 1186 0
19 1996-03-20 33.55% @ Sporting Mertzig 1196 2 F91 Dudelange 1264 1
20 1996-05-15 33.65% @ CS Petange 1069 3 Rodange 91 1136 1
21 1995-09-20 34.81% F91 Dudelange 1214 2 @ Union Luxembourg 1230 0
22 1996-05-05 35.03% @ Avenir Beggen 1304 1 Grevenmacher 1361 0
23 1995-10-15 35.70% CS Petange 1112 5 @ Wiltz 71 1121 0
24 1995-12-10 36.06% Grevenmacher 1332 1 @ Jeunesse Esch 1338 0
25 1996-04-21 36.44% Aris Bonnevoie 1092 2 @ Wiltz 71 1096 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-10-15 40.13 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1209 22.63% Jeunesse Esch 0 1372 58.41% 18.96%
2 1995-11-05 33.41 @ Differdange 03 7 1054 31.49% CS Petange 1 1138 48.65% 19.86%
3 1995-10-15 31.48 CS Petange 5 1112 35.70% @ Wiltz 71 0 1121 44.27% 20.03%
4 1995-12-10 29.79 Union Luxembourg 8 1260 56.31% @ CS Petange 0 1116 24.46% 19.22%
5 1995-09-24 27.82 Union Luxembourg 7 1216 54.45% @ Differdange 03 0 1087 26.13% 19.42%
6 1995-09-17 25.33 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1189 46.11% Rodange 91 0 1167 33.91% 19.98%
7 1995-10-15 24.89 Spora Luxembourg 4 1177 37.01% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 1176 42.92% 20.06%
8 1995-09-17 22.06 Sporting Mertzig 4 1167 42.97% @ Differdange 03 0 1124 36.97% 20.06%
9 1996-03-03 20.65 Avenir Beggen 5 1269 53.79% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 1145 26.72% 19.48%
10 1995-11-05 17.72 @ Rodange 91 2 1140 20.82% Avenir Beggen 0 1322 60.53% 18.65%
11 1996-03-24 17.10 @ Spora Luxembourg 6 1194 53.78% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1113 26.73% 19.49%
12 1995-12-10 15.63 Sporting Mertzig 3 1184 46.40% @ Wiltz 71 0 1117 33.64% 19.97%
13 1995-11-26 15.46 @ Aris Bonnevoie 5 1141 50.20% Differdange 03 1 1088 30.03% 19.77%
14 1996-05-12 15.40 Aris Bonnevoie 2 1086 28.56% @ Rodange 91 0 1151 51.79% 19.65%
15 1995-12-17 15.38 Jeunesse Esch 6 1331 43.62% @ Avenir Beggen 2 1284 36.33% 20.05%
16 1995-09-24 15.20 Grevenmacher 3 1304 47.54% @ F91 Dudelange 0 1228 32.55% 19.92%
17 1995-09-17 15.14 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 1342 62.63% Spora Luxembourg 0 1182 19.07% 18.29%
18 1995-09-20 14.89 @ Rodange 91 3 1141 48.36% Differdange 03 0 1102 31.76% 19.88%
19 1996-04-21 14.86 Avenir Beggen 3 1285 48.44% @ Sporting Mertzig 0 1202 31.69% 19.87%
20 1995-10-15 14.69 Union Luxembourg 3 1244 48.90% @ Rodange 91 0 1158 31.25% 19.85%
21 1996-03-31 14.61 Jeunesse Esch 6 1376 58.62% @ Spora Luxembourg 1 1211 22.45% 18.93%
22 1995-11-05 14.35 Wiltz 71 3 1101 24.56% @ Spora Luxembourg 1 1202 56.20% 19.23%
23 1995-09-20 13.69 F91 Dudelange 2 1214 34.81% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1230 45.18% 20.01%
24 1996-03-20 13.46 Rodange 91 3 1161 52.14% @ Differdange 03 0 1051 28.23% 19.63%
25 1996-03-18 13.19 @ F91 Dudelange 2 1250 36.72% Avenir Beggen 0 1294 43.22% 20.06%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-04-28 64.6 @ Differdange 03 4 1042 35.58% Aris Bonnevoie 4 1095 44.39% 20.03%
2 1995-12-17 62.9 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1290 61.26% Aris Bonnevoie 3 1144 20.21% 18.53%
3 1995-09-17 62.8 @ Aris Bonnevoie 3 1166 25.43% Grevenmacher 3 1301 55.22% 19.34%
4 1995-12-10 59.2 @ F91 Dudelange 2 1261 66.52% Differdange 03 2 1062 15.98% 17.50%
5 1995-10-01 58.7 @ Union Luxembourg 2 1244 51.18% Sporting Mertzig 2 1184 29.12% 19.70%
6 1995-12-03 58.7 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 1189 33.01% F91 Dudelange 2 1261 47.05% 19.94%
7 1996-03-31 58.7 @ Rodange 91 2 1171 31.77% F91 Dudelange 2 1252 48.35% 19.88%
8 1996-05-19 58.6 Sporting Mertzig 4 1191 25.08% @ F91 Dudelange 3 1287 55.62% 19.30%
9 1996-03-10 58.5 @ Rodange 91 2 1172 38.20% Sporting Mertzig 2 1206 41.72% 20.08%
10 1996-05-12 56.4 @ Grevenmacher 1 1354 37.88% Jeunesse Esch 1 1389 42.05% 20.08%
11 1996-03-24 55.1 @ Avenir Beggen 1 1281 70.51% Differdange 03 1 1037 13.02% 16.47%
12 1995-10-01 54.9 Differdange 03 2 1060 12.14% @ Grevenmacher 1 1319 71.76% 16.10%
13 1995-12-03 54.9 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1260 32.09% Jeunesse Esch 1 1339 48.01% 19.89%
14 1995-09-20 54.8 @ Avenir Beggen 1 1321 62.21% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1166 19.42% 18.37%
15 1995-11-26 54.8 @ Grevenmacher 1 1326 60.38% Spora Luxembourg 1 1188 20.95% 18.67%
16 1996-03-03 54.5 @ F91 Dudelange 1 1259 38.73% Union Luxembourg 1 1289 41.19% 20.08%
17 1996-05-12 54.5 @ Spora Luxembourg 1 1178 25.69% Avenir Beggen 1 1312 54.94% 19.37%
18 1995-12-17 54.3 @ Spora Luxembourg 1 1186 58.64% Differdange 03 1 1063 22.43% 18.93%
19 1996-03-31 54.2 Wiltz 71 2 1086 14.37% @ Union Luxembourg 1 1308 68.66% 16.97%
20 1996-04-24 54.1 @ Wiltz 71 1 1089 29.21% Spora Luxembourg 1 1191 51.08% 19.71%
21 1996-03-18 54.0 @ Aris Bonnevoie 1 1113 48.24% CS Petange 1 1075 31.88% 19.88%
22 1995-11-18 52.8 @ CS Petange 2 1105 19.26% Avenir Beggen 1 1304 62.41% 18.33%
23 1996-04-24 51.8 @ Grevenmacher 0 1354 49.90% Union Luxembourg 0 1303 30.31% 19.79%
24 1996-04-21 51.5 @ Differdange 03 1 1036 9.54% Jeunesse Esch 0 1390 75.67% 14.78%
25 1995-10-22 51.4 Wiltz 71 4 1089 28.95% @ Aris Bonnevoie 2 1151 51.36% 19.69%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-10-22 28.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1332 72.75% Differdange 03 0 1060 11.46% 15.79%
2 1995-10-15 28.3 Avenir Beggen 4 1322 67.51% @ Differdange 03 0 1070 15.23% 17.26%
3 1996-05-12 28.5 F91 Dudelange 4 1277 66.63% @ Differdange 03 0 1034 15.90% 17.47%
4 1995-09-20 29.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1357 68.49% CS Petange 0 1136 14.50% 17.02%
5 1996-04-28 29.6 Jeunesse Esch 4 1387 64.94% @ Rodange 91 0 1162 17.22% 17.84%
6 1995-09-17 29.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 1342 62.63% Spora Luxembourg 0 1182 19.07% 18.29%
7 1996-03-10 30.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 7 1351 69.02% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1124 14.10% 16.88%
8 1996-03-18 30.3 Grevenmacher 6 1340 69.99% @ Differdange 03 1 1060 13.40% 16.62%
9 1996-04-28 30.6 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1263 64.08% Wiltz 71 0 1090 17.90% 18.02%
10 1996-04-24 30.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1379 65.80% Sporting Mertzig 0 1188 16.54% 17.66%
11 1996-03-18 30.9 Jeunesse Esch 6 1362 68.21% @ Wiltz 71 1 1102 14.70% 17.09%
12 1995-10-01 31.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1367 70.36% Wiltz 71 0 1125 13.13% 16.51%
13 1996-05-19 31.7 Grevenmacher 5 1354 69.36% @ CS Petange 1 1081 13.85% 16.79%
14 1996-03-03 32.0 Avenir Beggen 5 1269 53.79% @ Aris Bonnevoie 0 1145 26.72% 19.48%
15 1996-03-31 32.0 @ Avenir Beggen 2 1279 66.34% CS Petange 0 1082 16.13% 17.54%
16 1995-09-24 32.1 Union Luxembourg 7 1216 54.45% @ Differdange 03 0 1087 26.13% 19.42%
17 1995-12-10 32.1 Union Luxembourg 8 1260 56.31% @ CS Petange 0 1116 24.46% 19.22%
18 1996-04-24 32.3 @ Avenir Beggen 3 1299 59.11% Rodange 91 0 1173 22.03% 18.86%
19 1996-05-12 33.1 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1319 70.80% CS Petange 0 1071 12.81% 16.38%
20 1996-03-20 34.1 Rodange 91 3 1161 52.14% @ Differdange 03 0 1051 28.23% 19.63%
21 1995-09-17 34.3 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1189 46.11% Rodange 91 0 1167 33.91% 19.98%
22 1996-03-31 34.3 Jeunesse Esch 6 1376 58.62% @ Spora Luxembourg 1 1211 22.45% 18.93%
23 1996-04-28 34.8 Grevenmacher 2 1353 58.40% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 1191 22.64% 18.96%
24 1996-04-21 34.9 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1252 64.25% CS Petange 1 1077 17.77% 17.98%
25 1996-03-24 35.0 @ Spora Luxembourg 6 1194 53.78% Aris Bonnevoie 1 1113 26.73% 19.49%