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2002-03 Luxembourg National Division Season

168 games

Final

Champion

F91 Dudelange

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiltz 71

5.75 points above expected

25 points · 19.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sporting Mertzig

10.26 points below expected

12 points · 22.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 22 14 3 5 45 60 27 +33 45.40 -0.40
2 Grevenmacher 22 13 5 4 44 56 21 +35 43.58 +0.42
3 Union Luxembourg 22 11 6 5 39 40 28 +12 35.11 +3.89
4 Jeunesse Esch 22 10 8 4 38 42 23 +19 37.88 +0.12
5 Swift Hesperange 22 10 7 5 37 53 32 +21 33.89 +3.11
6 Mondercange 22 11 2 9 35 51 44 +7 30.58 +4.42
7 Rumelange 22 10 3 9 33 45 49 -4 29.19 +3.81
8 Wiltz 71 22 7 4 11 25 30 42 -12 19.25 +5.75
9 Victoria Rosport 22 6 7 9 25 32 50 -18 29.55 -4.55
10 Avenir Beggen 22 7 3 12 24 44 56 -12 27.43 -3.43
11 Progres Niedercorn 22 5 0 17 15 22 68 -46 19.23 -4.23
12 Sporting Mertzig 22 4 0 18 12 23 58 -35 22.26 -10.26
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Grevenmacher 6 5 0 1 15 12 7 +5 54.61 -39.61
2 Swift Hesperange 6 4 2 0 14 13 5 +8 51.06 -37.06
3 Victoria Rosport 6 4 1 1 13 12 5 +7 35.34 -22.34
4 Avenir Beggen 6 4 1 1 13 13 8 +5 33.76 -20.76
5 Jeunesse Esch 6 3 1 2 10 12 7 +5 45.63 -35.63
6 Mondercange 6 3 0 3 9 13 12 +1 47.97 -38.97
7 Wiltz 71 6 2 1 3 7 10 11 -1 32.09 -25.09
8 F91 Dudelange 6 2 1 3 7 6 7 -1 54.14 -47.14
9 Sporting Mertzig 6 2 0 4 6 13 18 -5 19.27 -13.27
10 Rumelange 6 1 1 4 4 6 14 -8 43.97 -39.97
11 Progres Niedercorn 6 1 0 5 3 7 14 -7 21.80 -18.80
12 Union Luxembourg 6 1 0 5 3 3 12 -9 45.53 -42.53

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiltz 71 25 19.25 +5.75
2 Mondercange 35 30.58 +4.42
3 Union Luxembourg 39 35.11 +3.89
4 Rumelange 33 29.19 +3.81
5 Swift Hesperange 37 33.89 +3.11

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sporting Mertzig 12 22.26 -10.26
2 Victoria Rosport 25 29.55 -4.55
3 Progres Niedercorn 15 19.23 -4.23
4 Avenir Beggen 24 27.43 -3.43
5 F91 Dudelange 45 45.40 -0.40

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiltz 71 3 Sep 15 – Sep 22 1 in 106
2 Progres Niedercorn 2 Mar 9 – Mar 16 1 in 34
3 Jeunesse Esch 3 Nov 24 – Dec 8 1 in 12
4 Grevenmacher 5 Mar 16 – Apr 16 1 in 12
5 Victoria Rosport 3 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Progres Niedercorn 11 Aug 24 – Nov 17 1 in 552
2 F91 Dudelange 4 Nov 24 – Dec 11 1 in 324
3 Mondercange 3 Mar 9 – Mar 23 1 in 19
4 Sporting Mertzig 5 Sep 15 – Oct 6 1 in 19
5 Rumelange 2 Dec 1 – Dec 8 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiltz 71 5 Nov 10 – Dec 11 1 in 136
2 Swift Hesperange 9 Nov 10 – Apr 6 1 in 36
3 Jeunesse Esch 7 Nov 16 – Mar 23 1 in 21
4 Union Luxembourg 4 Nov 24 – Mar 9 1 in 12
5 Rumelange 5 Oct 20 – Nov 24 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grevenmacher 3 Nov 15 – Nov 27 1 in 39
2 F91 Dudelange 4 Nov 24 – Dec 11 1 in 37
3 Progres Niedercorn 11 Aug 24 – Nov 17 1 in 30
4 Jeunesse Esch 5 Aug 11 – Sep 18 1 in 22
5 Victoria Rosport 7 Nov 3 – Mar 9 1 in 21

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Grevenmacher 1287 59 +39 15 8.7 +6.3
F91 Dudelange 1214 52 -25 4 7.4 -3.4
Swift Hesperange 1165 51 +23 13 10.4 +2.6
Jeunesse Esch 1208 48 +7 7 7.1 -0.1
Mondercange 1080 44 -28 6 10.0 -4.0
Union Luxembourg 1105 42 -22 3 5.0 -2.0
Victoria Rosport 1052 38 +37 10 6.8 +3.2
Avenir Beggen 1014 37 +22 12 7.8 +4.2
Rumelange 981 37 -53 3 7.3 -4.3
Wiltz 71 909 32 +6 6 5.5 +0.5
Sporting Mertzig 900 18 +0 6 4.9 +1.1
Progres Niedercorn 877 18 -6 3 3.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB FD GRE JE MON PN RUM SM SH UL VR W7
Avenir Beggen —
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
1.87
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
3.28
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
2.74
1-1-0
3.57
F91 Dudelange
2-0-0
4.49
—
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
3.78
1-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
4.89
1-0-1
3.96
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
3.70
1-0-1
4.10
2-0-0
4.00
1-1-0
4.90
Grevenmacher
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
2.67
—
1-1-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.90
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
4.72
1-1-0
3.52
0-2-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.27
0-1-1
4.80
Jeunesse Esch
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
1.88
0-1-1
2.38
—
1-1-0
3.45
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.09
0-0-2
3.17
0-1-1
3.13
0-2-0
3.28
1-1-0
4.51
Mondercange
0-1-1
2.92
1-0-1
1.61
1-0-1
1.76
0-1-1
2.20
—
2-0-0
3.90
0-0-2
2.94
1-0-1
3.81
2-0-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
4.09
Progres Niedercorn
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-2
1.76
—
0-0-2
2.28
2-0-0
2.62
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
1.47
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.82
Rumelange
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.46
0-0-2
2.07
2-0-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.38
—
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.34
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-2
3.80
Sporting Mertzig
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-1
0.98
0-0-2
1.58
1-0-1
1.85
0-0-2
3.03
0-0-2
2.10
—
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
3.27
Swift Hesperange
2-0-0
3.70
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.14
2-0-0
2.48
0-0-2
3.45
2-0-0
3.94
0-1-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.65
—
0-2-0
3.08
0-2-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.12
Union Luxembourg
1-0-1
3.70
1-0-1
1.57
0-2-0
2.06
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
3.26
1-0-1
4.21
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.70
0-2-0
2.57
—
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
4.24
Victoria Rosport
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
1.41
0-2-0
2.37
0-0-2
3.03
1-0-1
3.80
0-2-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.57
0-2-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.37
—
2-0-0
3.59
Wiltz 71
0-1-1
2.08
0-1-1
0.82
1-1-0
0.91
0-1-1
1.18
1-0-1
1.58
2-0-0
2.83
2-0-0
1.86
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.55
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
2.06
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +7.6
Allowed 0.82 -6.4
Differential 0.94 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%5.06%4.76%4.46%3.27%2.98%24.11%
15.06%8.33%4.76%3.27%2.98%2.08%26.49%
24.76%4.76%2.98%2.68%2.08%1.19%18.45%
34.46%3.27%2.68%1.79%0.60%1.49%14.29%
43.27%2.98%2.08%0.60%——8.93%
5+2.98%2.08%1.19%1.49%——7.74%
Total24.11%26.49%18.45%14.29%8.93%7.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 1.84 +0.00
SD 1.63 1.63 2.57
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 168

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%7.14%—3.57%—17.86%
1———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
23.57%7.14%10.71%3.57%7.14%7.14%39.29%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4—14.29%3.57%———17.86%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total7.14%32.14%25.00%10.71%10.71%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 2.29 -0.25
SD 1.43 1.56 2.41
CV 0.70 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%—17.86%——25.00%
17.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%—21.43%
23.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
410.71%—3.57%———14.29%
5+14.29%——3.57%——17.86%
Total42.86%21.43%10.71%21.43%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.21 +1.14
SD 2.15 1.32 3.01
CV 0.91 1.08 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%7.14%——25.00%
110.71%7.14%————17.86%
2—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
37.14%—3.57%———10.71%
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+10.71%—3.57%3.57%——17.86%
Total42.86%25.00%21.43%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.00 +1.43
SD 1.99 1.05 2.30
CV 0.82 1.05 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
13.57%25.00%————28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
37.14%10.71%———3.57%21.43%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total25.00%57.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.07 +0.86
SD 1.49 1.05 1.90
CV 0.77 0.98 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————3.57%3.57%
13.57%3.57%10.71%7.14%7.14%—32.14%
27.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
314.29%3.57%3.57%——7.14%28.57%
43.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
5+———3.57%——3.57%
Total28.57%14.29%17.86%17.86%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 2.00 +0.29
SD 1.44 1.72 2.42
CV 0.63 0.86 —
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%10.71%10.71%42.86%
13.57%—3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%21.43%
27.14%7.14%—7.14%7.14%3.57%32.14%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total10.71%17.86%10.71%21.43%21.43%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.93 -1.89
SD 1.17 1.90 2.56
CV 1.13 0.65 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%7.14%—7.14%7.14%28.57%
13.57%3.57%14.29%———21.43%
2—7.14%——3.57%3.57%14.29%
33.57%3.57%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
4——3.57%3.57%——7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total10.71%25.00%32.14%10.71%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.25 -0.43
SD 1.68 1.65 2.62
CV 0.92 0.73 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%32.14%
13.57%—10.71%10.71%3.57%10.71%39.29%
23.57%——3.57%3.57%—10.71%
33.57%———3.57%—7.14%
4—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
5+———3.57%——3.57%
Total10.71%10.71%25.00%21.43%17.86%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.71 -1.43
SD 1.38 1.61 2.28
CV 1.08 0.59 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——3.57%—3.57%14.29%
17.14%14.29%—3.57%——25.00%
214.29%—3.57%3.57%——21.43%
3—3.57%—7.14%3.57%—14.29%
47.14%—3.57%———10.71%
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total42.86%17.86%14.29%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.32 +1.04
SD 1.87 1.47 2.52
CV 0.79 1.11 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%—7.14%3.57%—28.57%
17.14%14.29%—3.57%3.57%3.57%32.14%
210.71%3.57%————14.29%
37.14%—3.57%3.57%——14.29%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
Total32.14%35.71%3.57%17.86%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.43 +0.11
SD 1.50 1.48 2.25
CV 0.98 1.03 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%——7.14%17.86%
13.57%21.43%7.14%—10.71%—42.86%
23.57%10.71%————14.29%
33.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%—3.57%17.86%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total17.86%39.29%17.86%3.57%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.96 -0.39
SD 1.29 1.95 2.48
CV 0.82 0.99 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
17.14%3.57%7.14%—3.57%—21.43%
2—3.57%7.14%7.14%——17.86%
33.57%3.57%7.14%——3.57%17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total17.86%21.43%32.14%14.29%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.89 -0.46
SD 1.43 1.37 2.08
CV 1.00 0.72 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Grevenmacher 1287 44 43.58 +0.42 55.0% 32 35 39 44 48 53 59
F91 Dudelange 1214 45 45.40 -0.40 45.0% 27 34 41 46 49 56 59
Jeunesse Esch 1208 38 37.88 +0.12 56.0% 25 28 34 38 42 47 51
Swift Hesperange 1165 37 33.89 +3.11 74.0% 21 25 30 34 38 44 46
Union Luxembourg 1105 39 35.11 +3.89 79.0% 22 25 31 36 39 45 51
Mondercange 1080 35 30.58 +4.42 80.0% 17 21 26 30 34 41 48
Victoria Rosport 1052 25 29.55 -4.55 25.0% 16 19 25 29 33 38 43
Avenir Beggen 1014 24 27.43 -3.43 33.0% 15 18 23 27 32 37 44
Rumelange 981 33 29.19 +3.81 75.0% 14 19 24 29 33 39 44
Wiltz 71 909 25 19.25 +5.75 85.0% 4 11 16 19 22 28 37
Sporting Mertzig 900 12 22.26 -10.26 2.0% 8 14 18 22 26 30 35
Progres Niedercorn 877 15 19.23 -4.23 24.0% 8 11 16 19 23 28 35

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.52%
Slight Edge
46.43%16.67%36.90%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 33.19 Elo pts.
135 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
F91 Dudelange, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.65 * Some Luck: 4.65 to 6.98 * Lucky: 6.98 to 9.3 * Wild Swing: 9.3 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.86 * Off: 1.86 to 2.48 * Way Off: 2.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.54 points
As Expected
05.8115
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.554
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
85.00%
Wiltz 71
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.00%
Sporting Mertzig
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Even
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 130.28
1.66
Moderate Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
90%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Few
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
35%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Slight Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.67
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.82
Near-Lock
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.16
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
F91 Dudelange50.00%24.00%17.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%—2.00%————
Grevenmacher33.00%31.00%14.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%—————
Union Luxembourg4.00%10.00%15.00%17.00%20.00%12.00%13.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%——
Jeunesse Esch6.00%22.00%20.00%26.00%6.00%8.00%4.00%7.00%1.00%———
Swift Hesperange5.00%6.00%16.00%12.00%21.00%13.00%16.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%——
Mondercange2.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%13.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%16.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%
Rumelange—1.00%5.00%8.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%14.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%4.00%
Wiltz 71————2.00%2.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%16.00%22.00%39.00%
Victoria Rosport—1.00%5.00%8.00%10.00%14.00%12.00%18.00%14.00%11.00%4.00%3.00%
Avenir Beggen—2.00%2.00%4.00%8.00%14.00%11.00%16.00%15.00%17.00%7.00%4.00%
Progres Niedercorn———1.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%7.00%6.00%17.00%30.00%35.00%
Sporting Mertzig———1.00%1.00%2.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%24.00%30.00%14.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Swift Hesperange 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Mondercange 99.00% 1.00%
Victoria Rosport 95.00% 5.00%
Avenir Beggen 90.00% 10.00%
Rumelange 88.00% 12.00%
Sporting Mertzig 57.00% 43.00%
Progres Niedercorn 39.00% 61.00%
Wiltz 71 32.00% 68.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Mondercange 100% —
Rumelange 100% —
Swift Hesperange 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Victoria Rosport 99.16% 0.84%
Avenir Beggen 98.07% 1.93%
Wiltz 71 97.16% 2.84%
Progres Niedercorn 4.53% 95.47%
Sporting Mertzig 1.08% 98.92%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-08-11 Grevenmacher L 2-637.4 1016 1191 23.36% 16.98% 59.67%-1.05 -11.5 0
2002-08-11 @ Rumelange W 6-237.4 1191 1016 59.67% 16.98% 23.36%+1.05 +11.5 3
2002-08-11 Jeunesse Esch D 2-258.8 1030 1120 33.41% 17.56% 49.02%-0.42 +0.5 1
2002-08-11 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-258.8 1120 1030 49.02% 17.56% 33.41%+0.42 -0.5 1
2002-08-16 Mondercange W 4-146.4 891 1045 25.67% 17.17% 57.16%-0.89 +22.9 3
2002-08-16 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-446.4 1045 891 57.16% 17.17% 25.67%+0.89 -22.9 0
2002-08-17 F91 Dudelange L 1-339.7 1081 1216 27.78% 17.31% 54.91%-0.75 -8.7 0
2002-08-17 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-139.7 1216 1081 54.91% 17.31% 27.78%+0.75 +8.7 3
2002-08-17 Union Luxembourg D 1-153.9 1090 1093 45.40% 17.64% 36.95%+0.22 -0.3 1
2002-08-17 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 1093 1090 36.95% 17.64% 45.40%-0.22 +0.3 1
2002-08-17 Sporting Mertzig W 2-038.0 1003 1016 44.02% 17.66% 38.32%+0.15 +13.2 3
2002-08-17 @ Progres Niedercorn L 0-238.0 1016 1003 38.32% 17.66% 44.02%-0.15 -13.2 0
2002-08-24 Avenir Beggen D 2-258.7 1022 1031 44.69% 17.65% 37.65%+0.18 -0.2 1
2002-08-24 @ Mondercange D 2-258.7 1031 1022 37.65% 17.65% 44.69%-0.18 +0.2 2
2002-08-24 Progres Niedercorn W 4-027.7 1203 1016 67.48% 16.07% 16.45%+1.63 +11.7 6
2002-08-24 @ Grevenmacher L 0-427.7 1016 1203 16.45% 16.07% 67.48%-1.63 -11.7 3
2002-08-25 Union Luxembourg D 1-153.9 1119 1094 49.37% 17.55% 33.08%+0.44 -0.7 2
2002-08-25 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-153.9 1094 1119 33.08% 17.55% 49.37%-0.44 +0.7 2
2002-08-25 Rumelange D 3-363.5 1090 1004 56.90% 17.19% 25.91%+0.88 -0.8 2
2002-08-25 @ Victoria Rosport D 3-363.5 1004 1090 25.91% 17.19% 56.90%-0.88 +0.8 1
2002-08-25 Swift Hesperange L 0-139.8 1003 1072 36.08% 17.63% 46.29%-0.27 -6.7 0
2002-08-25 @ Sporting Mertzig W 1-039.8 1072 1003 46.29% 17.63% 36.08%+0.27 +6.7 3
2002-08-25 Wiltz 71 W 5-340.5 1225 914 76.77% 14.09% 9.15%+2.54 +2.5 6
2002-08-25 @ F91 Dudelange L 3-540.5 914 1225 9.15% 14.09% 76.77%-2.54 -2.5 3
2002-09-01 Rumelange L 0-142.7 1004 1005 45.75% 17.64% 36.61%+0.24 -8.1 3
2002-09-01 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-042.7 1005 1004 36.61% 17.64% 45.75%-0.24 +8.1 4
2002-09-01 Sporting Mertzig L 0-139.2 912 996 34.10% 17.58% 48.32%-0.38 -6.4 3
2002-09-01 @ Wiltz 71 W 1-039.2 996 912 48.32% 17.58% 34.10%+0.38 +6.3 3
2002-09-01 Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 1119 1089 49.92% 17.54% 32.55%+0.47 -0.7 3
2002-09-01 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-153.9 1089 1119 32.55% 17.54% 49.92%-0.47 +0.7 3
2002-09-13 Progres Niedercorn W 3-138.7 1089 996 57.85% 17.12% 25.03%+0.94 +7.9 6
2002-09-13 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-338.7 996 1089 25.03% 17.12% 57.85%-0.94 -7.9 3
2002-09-14 Union Luxembourg W 4-029.3 1227 1094 62.21% 16.74% 21.05%+1.23 +14.8 9
2002-09-14 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-429.3 1094 1227 21.05% 16.74% 62.21%-1.23 -14.8 2
2002-09-15 Avenir Beggen L 0-239.0 1002 1031 41.83% 17.68% 40.50%+0.03 -14.2 3
2002-09-15 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-039.0 1031 1002 40.50% 17.68% 41.83%-0.03 +14.2 5
2002-09-15 Jeunesse Esch D 1-153.9 1022 1118 32.59% 17.54% 49.87%-0.46 +0.7 2
2002-09-15 @ Mondercange D 1-153.9 1118 1022 49.87% 17.54% 32.59%+0.46 -0.7 4
2002-09-15 Swift Hesperange W 4-355.7 1013 1079 36.61% 17.64% 45.75%-0.24 +7.1 7
2002-09-15 @ Rumelange L 3-455.7 1079 1013 45.75% 17.64% 36.61%+0.24 -7.1 3
2002-09-15 Wiltz 71 L 0-150.9 1215 905 76.70% 14.11% 9.19%+2.53 -13.1 6
2002-09-15 @ Grevenmacher W 1-050.9 905 1215 9.19% 14.11% 76.70%-2.53 +13.0 6
2002-09-18 F91 Dudelange D 1-154.1 1117 1242 29.02% 17.38% 53.60%-0.68 +1.0 5
2002-09-18 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.1 1242 1117 53.60% 17.38% 29.02%+0.68 -1.0 10
2002-09-18 Grevenmacher L 2-443.5 1045 1202 25.38% 17.15% 57.47%-0.91 -7.2 5
2002-09-18 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-243.5 1202 1045 57.47% 17.15% 25.38%+0.91 +7.2 9
2002-09-18 Progres Niedercorn W 7-031.3 1072 988 56.68% 17.20% 26.12%+0.86 +30.5 6
2002-09-18 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-731.3 988 1072 26.12% 17.20% 56.68%-0.86 -30.5 3
2002-09-18 Rumelange W 2-148.3 918 1020 31.83% 17.51% 50.66%-0.51 +8.4 9
2002-09-18 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-248.3 1020 918 50.66% 17.51% 31.83%+0.51 -8.4 7
2002-09-18 Sporting Mertzig W 4-030.6 1079 988 57.60% 17.14% 25.26%+0.92 +17.4 5
2002-09-18 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-430.6 988 1079 25.26% 17.14% 57.60%-0.92 -17.5 3
2002-09-18 Victoria Rosport W 7-345.9 1023 1097 35.38% 17.62% 47.00%-0.31 +19.2 5
2002-09-18 @ Mondercange L 3-745.9 1097 1023 47.00% 17.62% 35.38%+0.31 -19.2 6
2002-09-22 Avenir Beggen W 5-139.8 1012 1038 42.18% 17.67% 40.14%+0.05 +21.7 10
2002-09-22 @ Rumelange L 1-539.8 1038 1012 40.14% 17.67% 42.18%-0.05 -21.7 5
2002-09-22 Jeunesse Esch L 0-530.6 971 1118 26.37% 17.22% 56.41%-0.85 -22.4 3
2002-09-22 @ Sporting Mertzig W 5-030.6 1118 971 56.41% 17.22% 26.37%+0.85 +22.4 8
2002-09-22 Mondercange W 3-135.6 1241 1042 68.52% 15.90% 15.57%+1.72 +5.1 13
2002-09-22 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-335.6 1042 1241 15.57% 15.90% 68.52%-1.72 -5.0 5
2002-09-22 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.1 1209 1097 59.95% 16.95% 23.10%+1.07 -1.5 10
2002-09-22 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.1 1097 1209 23.10% 16.95% 59.95%-1.07 +1.5 6
2002-09-22 Swift Hesperange D 0-050.6 1078 1102 42.49% 17.67% 39.84%+0.07 -0.1 7
2002-09-22 @ Victoria Rosport D 0-050.6 1102 1078 39.84% 17.67% 42.49%-0.07 +0.1 7
2002-09-22 Wiltz 71 L 2-353.2 958 927 50.07% 17.53% 32.40%+0.47 -7.9 3
2002-09-22 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-253.2 927 958 32.40% 17.53% 50.07%-0.47 +7.9 12
2002-09-25 Mondercange W 5-347.3 1098 1037 54.00% 17.36% 28.64%+0.70 +7.5 9
2002-09-25 @ Union Luxembourg L 3-547.3 1037 1098 28.64% 17.36% 54.00%-0.70 -7.5 5
2002-09-26 Progres Niedercorn W 5-136.1 1016 950 54.61% 17.33% 28.06%+0.74 +16.0 8
2002-09-26 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-536.1 950 1016 28.06% 17.33% 54.61%-0.74 -16.0 3
2002-09-28 Victoria Rosport W 5-028.0 1246 1078 65.70% 16.32% 17.98%+1.49 +15.7 16
2002-09-28 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-528.0 1078 1246 17.98% 16.32% 65.70%-1.49 -15.7 7
2002-09-29 Grevenmacher L 2-349.3 1141 1207 36.46% 17.64% 45.91%-0.25 -6.0 8
2002-09-29 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-249.3 1207 1141 45.91% 17.64% 36.46%+0.25 +6.0 13
2002-09-29 Rumelange L 1-347.9 1106 1034 55.34% 17.29% 27.37%+0.78 -15.7 9
2002-09-29 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-147.9 1034 1106 27.37% 17.29% 55.34%-0.78 +15.7 13
2002-09-29 Sporting Mertzig W 4-349.8 1029 948 56.40% 17.22% 26.38%+0.85 +4.4 8
2002-09-29 @ Mondercange L 3-449.8 948 1029 26.38% 17.22% 56.40%-0.85 -4.4 3
2002-09-29 Swift Hesperange L 0-430.2 935 1102 24.20% 17.05% 58.75%-0.99 -16.8 12
2002-09-29 @ Wiltz 71 W 4-030.2 1102 935 58.75% 17.05% 24.20%+0.99 +16.8 10
2002-10-05 Mondercange L 0-148.6 1213 1034 66.78% 16.17% 17.04%+1.57 -11.5 13
2002-10-05 @ Grevenmacher W 1-048.6 1034 1213 17.04% 16.17% 66.78%-1.57 +11.5 11
2002-10-06 Avenir Beggen W 5-240.8 1119 1032 57.08% 17.18% 25.74%+0.89 +9.9 13
2002-10-06 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-540.8 1032 1119 25.74% 17.18% 57.08%-0.89 -9.9 8
2002-10-06 F91 Dudelange L 1-236.1 944 1262 12.16% 15.10% 72.74%-2.11 -2.3 3
2002-10-06 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-136.1 1262 944 72.74% 15.10% 12.16%+2.11 +2.3 19
2002-10-06 Jeunesse Esch L 1-243.4 1049 1135 33.96% 17.58% 48.46%-0.39 -6.0 13
2002-10-06 @ Rumelange W 2-143.4 1135 1049 48.46% 17.58% 33.96%+0.39 +6.0 11
2002-10-06 Union Luxembourg L 0-234.0 934 1090 25.40% 17.15% 57.45%-0.91 -9.2 3
2002-10-06 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-034.0 1090 934 57.45% 17.15% 25.40%+0.91 +9.2 12
2002-10-06 Wiltz 71 W 2-138.8 1062 918 63.41% 16.61% 19.98%+1.32 +3.7 10
2002-10-06 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-238.8 918 1062 19.98% 16.61% 63.41%-1.32 -3.7 12
2002-10-18 Victoria Rosport W 4-145.4 942 1066 29.03% 17.38% 53.58%-0.68 +21.6 6
2002-10-18 @ Sporting Mertzig L 1-445.4 1066 942 53.58% 17.38% 29.03%+0.68 -21.6 10
2002-10-18 Wiltz 71 D 2-258.9 1022 914 59.53% 16.99% 23.48%+1.05 -1.1 9
2002-10-18 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-258.9 914 1022 23.48% 16.99% 59.53%-1.05 +1.1 13
2002-10-20 Grevenmacher W 2-035.3 1264 1202 54.08% 17.36% 28.56%+0.71 +10.3 22
2002-10-20 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-235.3 1202 1264 28.56% 17.36% 54.08%-0.71 -10.3 13
2002-10-20 Progres Niedercorn W 3-135.1 1141 925 69.96% 15.66% 14.38%+1.84 +4.7 14
2002-10-20 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-335.1 925 1141 14.38% 15.66% 69.96%-1.84 -4.7 3
2002-10-20 Rumelange L 2-352.1 1045 1043 46.14% 17.63% 36.23%+0.26 -7.3 11
2002-10-20 @ Mondercange W 3-252.1 1043 1045 36.23% 17.63% 46.14%-0.26 +7.3 16
2002-10-20 Swift Hesperange D 3-363.4 1099 1129 41.69% 17.68% 40.63%+0.03 -0.0 13
2002-10-20 @ Union Luxembourg D 3-363.4 1129 1099 40.63% 17.68% 41.69%-0.03 +0.0 14
2002-10-23 F91 Dudelange L 0-133.5 1021 1274 16.49% 16.07% 67.44%-1.63 -3.3 9
2002-10-23 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-033.5 1274 1021 67.44% 16.07% 16.49%+1.63 +3.3 25
2002-10-23 Grevenmacher L 0-534.1 1129 1192 37.03% 17.65% 45.33%-0.22 -30.0 14
2002-10-23 @ Swift Hesperange W 5-034.1 1192 1129 45.33% 17.65% 37.03%+0.22 +30.0 16
2002-10-27 Avenir Beggen W 5-243.1 1045 1018 49.49% 17.55% 32.96%+0.44 +12.3 13
2002-10-27 @ Victoria Rosport L 2-543.1 1018 1045 32.96% 17.55% 49.49%-0.44 -12.3 9
2002-10-27 Jeunesse Esch W 2-039.5 1099 1145 39.30% 17.67% 43.03%-0.10 +14.5 17
2002-10-27 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-239.5 1145 1099 43.03% 17.67% 39.30%+0.10 -14.5 14
2002-10-27 Progres Niedercorn W 4-029.7 1038 920 60.62% 16.89% 22.48%+1.12 +15.7 14
2002-10-27 @ Mondercange L 0-429.7 920 1038 22.48% 16.89% 60.62%-1.12 -15.7 3
2002-10-27 Union Luxembourg L 0-330.9 915 1099 22.51% 16.90% 60.60%-1.12 -12.0 13
2002-10-27 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-030.9 1099 915 60.60% 16.90% 22.51%+1.12 +12.0 16
2002-11-03 Avenir Beggen L 1-447.0 1111 1006 59.28% 17.01% 23.71%+1.03 -23.7 16
2002-11-03 @ Union Luxembourg W 4-147.0 1006 1111 23.71% 17.01% 59.28%-1.03 +23.7 12
2002-11-03 Progres Niedercorn W 4-023.8 1277 904 80.36% 12.93% 6.72%+3.01 +4.7 28
2002-11-03 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-423.8 904 1277 6.72% 12.93% 80.36%-3.01 -4.7 3
2002-11-03 Rumelange L 1-243.2 963 1051 33.67% 17.57% 48.75%-0.40 -5.9 6
2002-11-03 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-143.2 1051 963 48.75% 17.57% 33.67%+0.40 +5.9 19
2002-11-03 Swift Hesperange W 3-251.7 1054 1114 37.40% 17.65% 44.95%-0.20 +7.2 17
2002-11-03 @ Mondercange L 2-351.7 1114 1054 44.95% 17.65% 37.40%+0.20 -7.2 17
2002-11-03 Victoria Rosport W 4-134.6 1222 1057 65.40% 16.36% 18.24%+1.46 +8.3 19
2002-11-03 @ Grevenmacher L 1-434.6 1057 1222 18.24% 16.36% 65.40%-1.46 -8.3 13
2002-11-03 Wiltz 71 W 2-029.9 1131 903 70.90% 15.48% 13.62%+1.93 +5.1 17
2002-11-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-229.9 903 1131 13.62% 15.48% 70.90%-1.93 -5.1 13
2002-11-10 F91 Dudelange D 2-259.9 898 1282 8.83% 13.96% 77.21%-2.60 +2.2 14
2002-11-10 @ Wiltz 71 D 2-259.9 1282 898 77.21% 13.96% 8.83%+2.60 -2.2 29
2002-11-10 Jeunesse Esch W 1-042.0 1088 1136 39.05% 17.67% 43.28%-0.11 +7.8 19
2002-11-10 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-142.0 1136 1088 43.28% 17.67% 39.05%+0.11 -7.8 17
2002-11-10 Mondercange W 3-143.7 1029 1061 41.39% 17.68% 40.93%+0.01 +12.1 15
2002-11-10 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-343.7 1061 1029 40.93% 17.68% 41.39%-0.01 -12.1 17
2002-11-10 Sporting Mertzig W 2-032.0 1106 957 63.87% 16.55% 19.57%+1.35 +7.3 20
2002-11-10 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-232.0 957 1106 19.57% 16.55% 63.87%-1.35 -7.3 6
2002-11-10 Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 1057 1049 46.97% 17.62% 35.41%+0.31 -0.5 20
2002-11-10 @ Rumelange D 1-153.9 1049 1057 35.41% 17.62% 46.97%-0.31 +0.5 14
2002-11-15 Swift Hesperange D 2-259.1 1230 1114 60.43% 16.91% 22.66%+1.11 -1.2 20
2002-11-15 @ Grevenmacher D 2-259.1 1114 1230 22.66% 16.91% 60.43%-1.11 +1.2 21
2002-11-16 Avenir Beggen W 4-239.3 1280 1041 71.77% 15.31% 12.92%+2.01 +3.8 32
2002-11-16 @ F91 Dudelange L 2-439.3 1041 1280 12.92% 15.31% 71.77%-2.01 -3.8 15
2002-11-16 Jeunesse Esch D 1-153.9 1049 1128 34.79% 17.60% 47.61%-0.34 +0.5 15
2002-11-16 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 1128 1049 47.61% 17.60% 34.79%+0.34 -0.5 18
2002-11-16 Union Luxembourg W 3-037.3 1049 1096 39.23% 17.67% 43.10%-0.10 +21.2 20
2002-11-16 @ Mondercange L 0-337.3 1096 1049 43.10% 17.67% 39.23%+0.10 -21.2 19
2002-11-17 Progres Niedercorn W 4-241.3 1056 900 64.61% 16.46% 18.93%+1.40 +5.5 23
2002-11-17 @ Rumelange L 2-441.3 900 1056 18.93% 16.46% 64.61%-1.40 -5.4 3
2002-11-24 F91 Dudelange W 3-043.2 1074 1284 20.13% 16.62% 63.25%-1.30 +29.9 22
2002-11-24 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-343.2 1284 1074 63.25% 16.62% 20.13%+1.30 -29.9 32
2002-11-24 Grevenmacher D 0-051.4 900 1229 11.55% 14.92% 73.52%-2.18 +3.0 15
2002-11-24 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-051.4 1229 900 73.52% 14.92% 11.55%+2.18 -3.0 21
2002-11-24 Mondercange W 2-141.8 1128 1070 53.51% 17.39% 29.10%+0.67 +5.2 21
2002-11-24 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-241.8 1070 1128 29.10% 17.39% 53.51%-0.67 -5.2 20
2002-11-24 Rumelange D 3-363.5 1115 1062 52.96% 17.41% 29.63%+0.64 -0.6 22
2002-11-24 @ Swift Hesperange D 3-363.5 1062 1115 29.63% 17.41% 52.96%-0.64 +0.6 24
2002-11-24 Sporting Mertzig W 4-137.0 1038 950 57.17% 17.17% 25.66%+0.89 +11.4 18
2002-11-24 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-437.0 950 1038 25.66% 17.17% 57.17%-0.89 -11.4 6
2002-11-24 Victoria Rosport W 2-150.2 894 1049 25.51% 17.16% 57.33%-0.90 +9.4 6
2002-11-24 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-250.2 1049 894 57.33% 17.16% 25.51%+0.90 -9.4 15
2002-11-27 Sporting Mertzig L 0-346.0 1226 939 75.27% 14.50% 10.24%+2.37 -35.2 21
2002-11-27 @ Grevenmacher W 3-046.0 939 1226 10.24% 14.50% 75.27%-2.37 +35.2 9
2002-12-01 Avenir Beggen W 4-029.0 1191 1049 63.11% 16.64% 20.25%+1.29 +14.2 24
2002-12-01 @ Grevenmacher L 0-429.0 1049 1191 20.25% 16.64% 63.11%-1.29 -14.2 18
2002-12-01 Jeunesse Esch L 0-342.6 1254 1133 60.95% 16.86% 22.19%+1.14 -28.8 32
2002-12-01 @ F91 Dudelange W 3-042.6 1133 1254 22.19% 16.86% 60.95%-1.14 +28.8 24
2002-12-01 Mondercange L 1-442.2 1040 1065 42.39% 17.67% 39.93%+0.06 -17.6 15
2002-12-01 @ Victoria Rosport W 4-142.2 1065 1040 39.93% 17.67% 42.39%-0.06 +17.6 23
2002-12-01 Union Luxembourg L 1-536.2 974 1104 28.32% 17.35% 54.33%-0.72 -16.1 9
2002-12-01 @ Sporting Mertzig W 5-136.2 1104 974 54.33% 17.35% 28.32%+0.72 +16.1 25
2002-12-01 Swift Hesperange L 0-628.8 903 1114 20.00% 16.61% 63.39%-1.31 -20.6 6
2002-12-01 @ Progres Niedercorn W 6-028.8 1114 903 63.39% 16.61% 20.00%+1.31 +20.6 25
2002-12-01 Wiltz 71 L 0-148.0 1062 903 64.84% 16.44% 18.73%+1.42 -11.2 24
2002-12-01 @ Rumelange W 1-048.0 903 1062 18.73% 16.44% 64.84%-1.42 +11.2 18
2002-12-07 F91 Dudelange W 3-041.1 1082 1225 26.92% 17.26% 55.82%-0.81 +26.6 26
2002-12-07 @ Mondercange L 0-341.1 1225 1082 55.82% 17.26% 26.92%+0.81 -26.6 32
2002-12-08 Grevenmacher D 0-050.7 1120 1205 34.07% 17.58% 48.35%-0.38 +0.6 26
2002-12-08 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-050.7 1205 1120 48.35% 17.58% 34.07%+0.38 -0.6 25
2002-12-08 Progres Niedercorn W 3-034.0 914 883 50.15% 17.53% 32.32%+0.48 +16.6 21
2002-12-08 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-334.0 883 914 32.32% 17.53% 50.15%-0.48 -16.6 6
2002-12-08 Rumelange W 2-144.8 1035 1051 43.59% 17.67% 38.75%+0.13 +6.7 21
2002-12-08 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-244.8 1051 1035 38.75% 17.67% 43.59%-0.13 -6.7 24
2002-12-08 Sporting Mertzig W 3-135.4 1162 958 68.96% 15.83% 15.21%+1.75 +4.9 27
2002-12-08 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-335.4 958 1162 15.21% 15.83% 68.96%-1.75 -4.9 9
2002-12-08 Victoria Rosport D 1-154.1 1135 1023 59.99% 16.95% 23.06%+1.08 -1.5 26
2002-12-08 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.1 1023 1135 23.06% 16.95% 59.99%-1.08 +1.5 16
2002-12-11 F91 Dudelange W 3-041.4 1044 1198 25.65% 17.17% 57.18%-0.89 +27.2 27
2002-12-11 @ Rumelange L 0-341.4 1198 1044 57.18% 17.17% 25.65%+0.89 -27.2 32
2002-12-11 Wiltz 71 L 1-346.0 953 931 48.82% 17.57% 33.61%+0.41 -14.0 9
2002-12-11 @ Sporting Mertzig W 3-146.0 931 953 33.61% 17.57% 48.82%-0.41 +14.0 24
2002-12-18 Grevenmacher L 2-438.5 866 1204 11.04% 14.77% 74.20%-2.25 -3.2 6
2002-12-18 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-238.5 1204 866 74.20% 14.77% 11.04%+2.25 +3.2 28
2003-03-09 Avenir Beggen W 5-145.5 863 1041 23.09% 16.95% 59.96%-1.07 +30.9 9
2003-03-09 @ Progres Niedercorn L 1-545.5 1041 863 59.96% 16.95% 23.09%+1.07 -30.9 21
2003-03-09 F91 Dudelange L 0-731.5 1024 1171 26.41% 17.23% 56.36%-0.84 -30.8 16
2003-03-09 @ Victoria Rosport W 7-031.5 1171 1024 56.36% 17.23% 26.41%+0.84 +30.8 35
2003-03-09 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.1 1207 1167 51.37% 17.48% 31.14%+0.55 -0.8 29
2003-03-09 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.1 1167 1207 31.14% 17.48% 51.37%-0.55 +0.8 28
2003-03-09 Mondercange W 4-253.5 939 1109 23.92% 17.03% 59.05%-1.01 +14.9 12
2003-03-09 @ Sporting Mertzig L 2-453.5 1109 939 59.05% 17.03% 23.92%+1.01 -14.9 26
2003-03-09 Union Luxembourg L 0-238.2 1071 1121 38.84% 17.67% 43.49%-0.12 -13.4 27
2003-03-09 @ Rumelange W 2-038.2 1121 1071 43.49% 17.67% 38.84%+0.12 +13.4 29
2003-03-09 Wiltz 71 W 4-027.6 1133 945 67.58% 16.05% 16.37%+1.64 +11.6 29
2003-03-09 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-427.6 945 1133 16.37% 16.05% 67.58%-1.64 -11.6 24
2003-03-16 Grevenmacher L 0-532.0 1094 1207 30.47% 17.45% 52.07%-0.59 -25.4 26
2003-03-16 @ Mondercange W 5-032.0 1207 1094 52.07% 17.45% 30.47%+0.59 +25.4 32
2003-03-16 Progres Niedercorn L 0-149.8 1134 894 71.91% 15.28% 12.81%+2.02 -12.3 29
2003-03-16 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-049.8 894 1134 12.81% 15.28% 71.91%-2.02 +12.3 12
2003-03-16 Rumelange W 4-030.0 1167 1058 59.65% 16.98% 23.37%+1.05 +16.3 31
2003-03-16 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-430.0 1058 1167 23.37% 16.98% 59.65%-1.05 -16.3 27
2003-03-16 Sporting Mertzig W 4-026.1 1202 954 72.52% 15.15% 12.33%+2.08 +8.8 38
2003-03-16 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-426.1 954 1202 12.33% 15.15% 72.52%-2.08 -8.8 12
2003-03-16 Swift Hesperange L 1-339.7 1011 1145 27.87% 17.32% 54.81%-0.75 -8.7 21
2003-03-16 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-139.7 1145 1011 54.81% 17.32% 27.87%+0.75 +8.7 32
2003-03-16 Victoria Rosport L 0-237.7 933 993 37.41% 17.65% 44.94%-0.20 -13.0 24
2003-03-16 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-037.7 993 933 44.94% 17.65% 37.41%+0.20 +13.0 19
2003-03-23 Avenir Beggen L 1-439.8 920 1002 34.49% 17.59% 47.92%-0.36 -14.8 24
2003-03-23 @ Wiltz 71 W 4-139.8 1002 920 47.92% 17.59% 34.49%+0.36 +14.8 24
2003-03-23 F91 Dudelange W 3-034.7 1232 1211 48.77% 17.57% 33.66%+0.40 +17.2 35
2003-03-23 @ Grevenmacher L 0-334.7 1211 1232 33.66% 17.57% 48.77%-0.40 -17.2 38
2003-03-23 Jeunesse Esch L 1-433.3 906 1184 14.72% 15.73% 69.55%-1.81 -6.8 12
2003-03-23 @ Progres Niedercorn W 4-133.3 1184 906 69.55% 15.73% 14.72%+1.81 +6.8 34
2003-03-23 Mondercange W 2-145.2 1042 1069 42.10% 17.67% 40.23%+0.05 +6.9 30
2003-03-23 @ Rumelange L 1-245.2 1069 1042 40.23% 17.67% 42.10%-0.05 -6.9 26
2003-03-23 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.0 1154 1122 50.15% 17.53% 32.32%+0.48 -0.7 33
2003-03-23 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.0 1122 1154 32.32% 17.53% 50.15%-0.48 +0.7 30
2003-03-23 Sporting Mertzig W 1-037.5 1006 945 53.99% 17.36% 28.64%+0.70 +5.4 22
2003-03-23 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-137.5 945 1006 28.64% 17.36% 53.99%-0.70 -5.5 12
2003-04-06 Grevenmacher L 0-327.5 939 1249 12.62% 15.23% 72.15%-2.05 -6.9 12
2003-04-06 @ Sporting Mertzig W 3-027.5 1249 939 72.15% 15.23% 12.62%+2.05 +6.9 38
2003-04-06 Mondercange L 0-233.7 900 1062 24.78% 17.10% 58.12%-0.95 -9.0 12
2003-04-06 @ Progres Niedercorn W 2-033.7 1062 900 58.12% 17.10% 24.78%+0.95 +9.0 29
2003-04-06 Rumelange W 6-028.9 1194 1049 63.44% 16.60% 19.95%+1.32 +20.6 41
2003-04-06 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-628.9 1049 1194 19.95% 16.60% 63.44%-1.32 -20.6 30
2003-04-06 Swift Hesperange L 0-241.8 1190 1153 50.93% 17.50% 31.57%+0.52 -16.8 34
2003-04-06 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-041.8 1153 1190 31.57% 17.50% 50.93%-0.52 +16.8 36
2003-04-06 Victoria Rosport L 2-352.2 1017 1012 46.55% 17.62% 35.82%+0.28 -7.4 24
2003-04-06 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-252.2 1012 1017 35.82% 17.62% 46.55%-0.28 +7.4 25
2003-04-06 Wiltz 71 W 3-241.9 1123 906 70.05% 15.64% 14.31%+1.85 +2.5 33
2003-04-06 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-341.9 906 1123 14.31% 15.64% 70.05%-1.85 -2.5 24
2003-04-09 F91 Dudelange L 0-625.9 890 1214 11.82% 15.00% 73.18%-2.15 -12.3 12
2003-04-09 @ Progres Niedercorn W 6-025.9 1214 890 73.18% 15.00% 11.82%+2.15 +12.3 44
2003-04-12 Grevenmacher L 1-238.1 1019 1256 17.75% 16.29% 65.97%-1.51 -3.3 25
2003-04-12 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-138.1 1256 1019 65.97% 16.29% 17.75%+1.51 +3.3 41
2003-04-13 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.4 903 1174 15.21% 15.83% 68.96%-1.75 +2.3 25
2003-04-13 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-154.4 1174 903 68.96% 15.83% 15.21%+1.75 -2.3 35
2003-04-13 Mondercange L 0-341.8 1170 1071 58.50% 17.07% 24.43%+0.98 -27.8 36
2003-04-13 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-041.8 1071 1170 24.43% 17.07% 58.50%-0.98 +27.8 32
2003-04-13 Union Luxembourg L 0-235.5 1009 1125 30.06% 17.44% 52.51%-0.61 -10.7 24
2003-04-13 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-035.5 1125 1009 52.51% 17.44% 30.06%+0.61 +10.7 36
2003-04-13 Sporting Mertzig W 6-133.9 1028 932 58.12% 17.10% 24.78%+0.95 +17.5 33
2003-04-13 @ Rumelange L 1-633.9 932 1028 24.78% 17.10% 58.12%-0.95 -17.5 12
2003-04-16 Avenir Beggen W 3-136.3 1171 998 66.16% 16.26% 17.58%+1.52 +5.7 38
2003-04-16 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-336.3 998 1171 17.58% 16.26% 66.16%-1.52 -5.7 24
2003-04-16 Progres Niedercorn L 1-248.4 915 878 50.83% 17.50% 31.66%+0.52 -8.4 12
2003-04-16 @ Sporting Mertzig W 2-148.4 878 915 31.66% 17.50% 50.83%-0.52 +8.4 15
2003-04-16 Rumelange W 5-026.7 1259 1046 69.78% 15.69% 14.53%+1.83 +12.8 44
2003-04-16 @ Grevenmacher L 0-526.7 1046 1259 14.53% 15.69% 69.78%-1.83 -12.8 33
2003-04-16 Swift Hesperange D 1-154.1 1226 1142 56.80% 17.20% 26.00%+0.87 -1.2 45
2003-04-16 @ F91 Dudelange D 1-154.1 1142 1226 26.00% 17.20% 56.80%-0.87 +1.2 37
2003-04-16 Victoria Rosport W 1-035.4 1136 1016 60.87% 16.87% 22.26%+1.14 +4.3 39
2003-04-16 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-135.4 1016 1136 22.26% 16.87% 60.87%-1.14 -4.4 25
2003-04-16 Wiltz 71 W 2-137.5 1098 905 68.01% 15.99% 16.01%+1.67 +3.0 35
2003-04-16 @ Mondercange L 1-237.5 905 1098 16.01% 15.99% 68.01%-1.67 -3.0 25

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-05-03 Mondercange L 1-337.6 907 1101 21.46% 16.78% 61.75%-1.20 -6.9 0
2003-05-03 @ Sporting Mertzig W 3-137.6 1101 907 61.75% 16.78% 21.46%+1.20 +6.9 3
2003-05-04 Avenir Beggen D 0-050.6 902 993 33.30% 17.56% 49.14%-0.42 +0.7 1
2003-05-04 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.6 993 902 49.14% 17.56% 33.30%+0.42 -0.7 1
2003-05-04 Grevenmacher W 3-039.6 1177 1272 32.67% 17.54% 49.79%-0.46 +24.0 3
2003-05-04 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-339.6 1272 1177 49.79% 17.54% 32.67%+0.46 -24.0 0
2003-05-04 Progres Niedercorn W 2-139.4 1011 887 61.35% 16.82% 21.83%+1.17 +4.0 3
2003-05-04 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-239.4 887 1011 21.83% 16.82% 61.35%-1.17 -4.0 0
2003-05-04 Union Luxembourg W 3-032.2 1225 1140 56.85% 17.19% 25.96%+0.87 +13.7 3
2003-05-04 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-332.2 1140 1225 25.96% 17.19% 56.85%-0.87 -13.7 0
2003-05-04 Swift Hesperange D 0-050.7 1033 1143 30.76% 17.47% 51.77%-0.57 +0.9 1
2003-05-04 @ Rumelange D 0-050.7 1143 1033 51.77% 17.47% 30.76%+0.57 -0.9 1
2003-05-07 Avenir Beggen L 1-251.1 1108 992 60.42% 16.91% 22.67%+1.11 -9.8 3
2003-05-07 @ Mondercange W 2-151.1 992 1108 22.67% 16.91% 60.42%-1.11 +9.9 4
2003-05-07 F91 Dudelange D 0-050.9 1201 1239 40.47% 17.67% 41.85%-0.04 +0.1 4
2003-05-07 @ Jeunesse Esch D 0-050.9 1239 1201 41.85% 17.67% 40.47%+0.04 -0.1 4
2003-05-07 Grevenmacher L 0-137.9 1127 1248 29.39% 17.40% 53.20%-0.65 -5.6 0
2003-05-07 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-037.9 1248 1127 53.20% 17.40% 29.39%+0.65 +5.6 3
2003-05-07 Progres Niedercorn W 5-235.9 1142 883 73.36% 14.96% 11.68%+2.17 +4.6 4
2003-05-07 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-535.9 883 1142 11.68% 14.96% 73.36%-2.17 -4.6 0
2003-05-07 Rumelange W 4-034.9 1015 1034 43.27% 17.67% 39.06%+0.11 +25.5 6
2003-05-07 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-434.9 1034 1015 39.06% 17.67% 43.27%-0.11 -25.5 1
2003-05-07 Wiltz 71 L 1-541.4 900 903 45.38% 17.64% 36.98%+0.22 -24.0 0
2003-05-07 @ Sporting Mertzig W 5-141.4 903 900 36.98% 17.64% 45.38%-0.22 +24.0 4
2003-05-11 F91 Dudelange W 4-140.2 1254 1239 47.92% 17.59% 34.49%+0.36 +14.8 6
2003-05-11 @ Grevenmacher L 1-440.2 1239 1254 34.49% 17.59% 47.92%-0.36 -14.8 4
2003-05-11 Jeunesse Esch L 0-139.5 1121 1201 34.68% 17.60% 47.72%-0.35 -6.4 0
2003-05-11 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-039.5 1201 1121 47.72% 17.60% 34.68%+0.35 +6.4 7
2003-05-11 Rumelange L 2-346.6 878 1008 28.33% 17.35% 54.33%-0.72 -4.8 0
2003-05-11 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-246.6 1008 878 54.33% 17.35% 28.33%+0.72 +4.8 4
2003-05-11 Sporting Mertzig W 4-242.2 1002 876 61.52% 16.81% 21.67%+1.18 +6.2 7
2003-05-11 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-442.2 876 1002 21.67% 16.81% 61.52%-1.18 -6.2 0
2003-05-11 Victoria Rosport D 1-154.1 1147 1041 59.30% 17.01% 23.69%+1.03 -1.5 5
2003-05-11 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.1 1041 1147 23.69% 17.01% 59.30%-1.03 +1.5 7
2003-05-11 Wiltz 71 W 3-029.3 1098 927 66.02% 16.28% 17.70%+1.51 +9.6 6
2003-05-11 @ Mondercange L 0-329.3 927 1098 17.70% 16.28% 66.02%-1.51 -9.6 4
2003-05-18 Jeunesse Esch W 1-039.5 1224 1207 48.15% 17.59% 34.26%+0.37 +6.4 7
2003-05-18 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-139.5 1207 1224 34.26% 17.59% 48.15%-0.37 -6.4 7
2003-05-18 Mondercange W 4-144.5 1008 1108 32.07% 17.52% 50.41%-0.49 +20.4 10
2003-05-18 @ Avenir Beggen L 1-444.5 1108 1008 50.41% 17.52% 32.07%+0.49 -20.4 6
2003-05-18 Union Luxembourg W 1-034.5 1269 1115 64.35% 16.50% 19.15%+1.38 +3.8 9
2003-05-18 @ Grevenmacher L 0-134.5 1115 1269 19.15% 16.50% 64.35%-1.38 -3.8 0
2003-05-18 Sporting Mertzig W 3-247.2 918 869 52.32% 17.44% 30.24%+0.60 +5.1 7
2003-05-18 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-347.2 869 918 30.24% 17.44% 52.32%-0.60 -5.1 0
2003-05-18 Swift Hesperange L 0-132.9 873 1145 15.06% 15.80% 69.13%-1.77 -3.0 0
2003-05-18 @ Progres Niedercorn W 1-032.9 1145 873 69.13% 15.80% 15.06%+1.77 +3.0 8
2003-05-18 Victoria Rosport L 1-245.7 1013 1042 41.75% 17.68% 40.57%+0.03 -7.1 4
2003-05-18 @ Rumelange W 2-145.7 1042 1013 40.57% 17.68% 41.75%-0.03 +7.1 10
2003-05-22 Avenir Beggen W 2-043.8 864 1029 24.55% 17.08% 58.37%-0.97 +19.1 3
2003-05-22 @ Sporting Mertzig L 0-243.8 1029 864 58.37% 17.08% 24.55%+0.97 -19.1 10
2003-05-22 Grevenmacher L 0-141.4 1230 1272 39.91% 17.67% 42.42%-0.06 -7.2 7
2003-05-22 @ F91 Dudelange W 1-041.4 1272 1230 42.42% 17.67% 39.91%+0.06 +7.2 12
2003-05-22 Mondercange L 0-233.7 923 1088 24.48% 17.08% 58.44%-0.97 -9.0 7
2003-05-22 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-033.7 1088 923 58.44% 17.08% 24.48%+0.97 +8.9 9
2003-05-22 Progres Niedercorn L 0-245.0 1006 870 62.54% 16.70% 20.76%+1.25 -20.4 4
2003-05-22 @ Rumelange W 2-045.0 870 1006 20.76% 16.70% 62.54%-1.25 +20.3 3
2003-05-22 Union Luxembourg W 5-135.3 1201 1111 57.47% 17.15% 25.38%+0.91 +14.6 10
2003-05-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-535.3 1111 1201 25.38% 17.15% 57.47%-0.91 -14.6 0
2003-05-22 Swift Hesperange L 0-236.1 1049 1148 32.18% 17.52% 50.30%-0.49 -11.4 10
2003-05-22 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-036.1 1148 1049 50.30% 17.52% 32.18%+0.49 +11.4 11
2003-05-25 F91 Dudelange W 2-149.3 1096 1223 28.75% 17.37% 53.88%-0.69 +8.9 3
2003-05-25 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-249.3 1223 1096 53.88% 17.37% 28.75%+0.69 -8.9 7
2003-05-25 Jeunesse Esch W 5-347.6 1280 1216 54.31% 17.35% 28.34%+0.72 +7.5 15
2003-05-25 @ Grevenmacher L 3-547.6 1216 1280 28.34% 17.35% 54.31%-0.72 -7.5 10
2003-05-25 Rumelange W 4-240.8 1160 986 66.29% 16.24% 17.47%+1.53 +5.1 14
2003-05-25 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-440.8 986 1160 17.47% 16.24% 66.29%-1.53 -5.1 4
2003-05-25 Sporting Mertzig L 3-559.1 1097 883 69.74% 15.70% 14.56%+1.82 -16.5 9
2003-05-25 @ Mondercange W 5-359.1 883 1097 14.56% 15.70% 69.74%-1.82 +16.5 6
2003-05-25 Victoria Rosport L 0-332.2 890 1038 26.37% 17.22% 56.41%-0.85 -13.9 3
2003-05-25 @ Progres Niedercorn W 3-032.2 1038 890 56.41% 17.22% 26.37%+0.85 +13.9 13
2003-05-25 Wiltz 71 W 3-245.5 1010 914 58.12% 17.10% 24.78%+0.95 +4.3 13
2003-05-25 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-345.5 914 1010 24.78% 17.10% 58.12%-0.95 -4.3 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-09-15 9.19% Wiltz 71 905 1 @ Grevenmacher 1215 0
2 2002-11-27 10.24% Sporting Mertzig 939 3 @ Grevenmacher 1226 0
3 2003-03-16 12.81% Progres Niedercorn 894 1 @ Union Luxembourg 1134 0
4 2003-05-25 14.56% Sporting Mertzig 883 5 @ Mondercange 1097 3
5 2002-10-05 17.04% Mondercange 1034 1 @ Grevenmacher 1213 0
6 2002-12-01 18.73% Wiltz 71 903 1 @ Rumelange 1062 0
7 2002-11-24 20.13% @ Union Luxembourg 1074 3 F91 Dudelange 1284 0
8 2003-05-22 20.76% Progres Niedercorn 870 2 @ Rumelange 1006 0
9 2002-12-01 22.19% Jeunesse Esch 1133 3 @ F91 Dudelange 1254 0
10 2003-05-07 22.67% Avenir Beggen 992 2 @ Mondercange 1108 1
11 2003-03-09 23.09% @ Progres Niedercorn 863 5 Avenir Beggen 1041 1
12 2002-11-03 23.71% Avenir Beggen 1006 4 @ Union Luxembourg 1111 1
13 2003-03-09 23.92% @ Sporting Mertzig 939 4 Mondercange 1109 2
14 2003-04-13 24.43% Mondercange 1071 3 @ Swift Hesperange 1170 0
15 2003-05-22 24.55% @ Sporting Mertzig 864 2 Avenir Beggen 1029 0
16 2002-11-24 25.51% @ Progres Niedercorn 894 2 Victoria Rosport 1049 1
17 2002-12-11 25.65% @ Rumelange 1044 3 F91 Dudelange 1198 0
18 2002-08-16 25.67% @ Wiltz 71 891 4 Mondercange 1045 1
19 2002-12-07 26.92% @ Mondercange 1082 3 F91 Dudelange 1225 0
20 2002-09-29 27.37% Rumelange 1034 3 @ Union Luxembourg 1106 1
21 2003-05-25 28.75% @ Union Luxembourg 1096 2 F91 Dudelange 1223 1
22 2002-10-18 29.03% @ Sporting Mertzig 942 4 Victoria Rosport 1066 1
23 2003-04-06 31.57% Swift Hesperange 1153 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1190 0
24 2003-04-16 31.66% Progres Niedercorn 878 2 @ Sporting Mertzig 915 1
25 2002-09-18 31.83% @ Wiltz 71 918 2 Rumelange 1020 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-11-27 35.16 Sporting Mertzig 3 939 10.24% @ Grevenmacher 0 1226 75.27% 14.50%
2 2003-03-09 30.92 @ Progres Niedercorn 5 863 23.09% Avenir Beggen 1 1041 59.96% 16.95%
3 2003-03-09 30.79 F91 Dudelange 7 1171 56.36% @ Victoria Rosport 0 1024 26.41% 17.23%
4 2002-09-18 30.48 @ Swift Hesperange 7 1072 56.68% Progres Niedercorn 0 988 26.12% 17.20%
5 2002-10-23 30.02 Grevenmacher 5 1192 45.33% @ Swift Hesperange 0 1129 37.03% 17.65%
6 2002-11-24 29.88 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1074 20.13% F91 Dudelange 0 1284 63.25% 16.62%
7 2002-12-01 28.85 Jeunesse Esch 3 1133 22.19% @ F91 Dudelange 0 1254 60.95% 16.86%
8 2003-04-13 27.76 Mondercange 3 1071 24.43% @ Swift Hesperange 0 1170 58.50% 17.07%
9 2002-12-11 27.17 @ Rumelange 3 1044 25.65% F91 Dudelange 0 1198 57.18% 17.17%
10 2002-12-07 26.57 @ Mondercange 3 1082 26.92% F91 Dudelange 0 1225 55.82% 17.26%
11 2003-05-07 25.47 @ Victoria Rosport 4 1015 43.27% Rumelange 0 1034 39.06% 17.67%
12 2003-03-16 25.41 Grevenmacher 5 1207 52.07% @ Mondercange 0 1094 30.47% 17.45%
13 2003-05-07 24.05 Wiltz 71 5 903 36.98% @ Sporting Mertzig 1 900 45.38% 17.64%
14 2003-05-04 23.96 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1177 32.67% Grevenmacher 0 1272 49.79% 17.54%
15 2002-11-03 23.70 Avenir Beggen 4 1006 23.71% @ Union Luxembourg 1 1111 59.28% 17.01%
16 2002-08-16 22.91 @ Wiltz 71 4 891 25.67% Mondercange 1 1045 57.16% 17.17%
17 2002-09-22 22.37 Jeunesse Esch 5 1118 56.41% @ Sporting Mertzig 0 971 26.37% 17.22%
18 2002-09-22 21.71 @ Rumelange 5 1012 42.18% Avenir Beggen 1 1038 40.14% 17.67%
19 2002-10-18 21.58 @ Sporting Mertzig 4 942 29.03% Victoria Rosport 1 1066 53.58% 17.38%
20 2002-11-16 21.16 @ Mondercange 3 1049 39.23% Union Luxembourg 0 1096 43.10% 17.67%
21 2002-12-01 20.61 Swift Hesperange 6 1114 63.39% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 903 20.00% 16.61%
22 2003-04-06 20.56 @ F91 Dudelange 6 1194 63.44% Rumelange 0 1049 19.95% 16.60%
23 2003-05-18 20.42 @ Avenir Beggen 4 1008 32.07% Mondercange 1 1108 50.41% 17.52%
24 2003-05-22 20.35 Progres Niedercorn 2 870 20.76% @ Rumelange 0 1006 62.54% 16.70%
25 2002-09-18 19.21 @ Mondercange 7 1023 35.38% Victoria Rosport 3 1097 47.00% 17.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-08-25 63.5 @ Victoria Rosport 3 1090 56.90% Rumelange 3 1004 25.91% 17.19%
2 2002-11-24 63.5 @ Swift Hesperange 3 1115 52.96% Rumelange 3 1062 29.63% 17.41%
3 2002-10-20 63.4 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1099 41.69% Swift Hesperange 3 1129 40.63% 17.68%
4 2002-11-10 59.9 @ Wiltz 71 2 898 8.83% F91 Dudelange 2 1282 77.21% 13.96%
5 2002-11-15 59.1 @ Grevenmacher 2 1230 60.43% Swift Hesperange 2 1114 22.66% 16.91%
6 2003-05-25 59.1 Sporting Mertzig 5 883 14.56% @ Mondercange 3 1097 69.74% 15.70%
7 2002-10-18 58.9 @ Avenir Beggen 2 1022 59.53% Wiltz 71 2 914 23.48% 16.99%
8 2002-08-11 58.8 @ Avenir Beggen 2 1030 33.41% Jeunesse Esch 2 1120 49.02% 17.56%
9 2002-08-24 58.7 @ Mondercange 2 1022 44.69% Avenir Beggen 2 1031 37.65% 17.65%
10 2002-09-15 55.7 @ Rumelange 4 1013 36.61% Swift Hesperange 3 1079 45.75% 17.64%
11 2003-04-13 54.4 @ Wiltz 71 1 903 15.21% Jeunesse Esch 1 1174 68.96% 15.83%
12 2002-09-18 54.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1117 29.02% F91 Dudelange 1 1242 53.60% 17.38%
13 2002-09-22 54.1 @ Grevenmacher 1 1209 59.95% Union Luxembourg 1 1097 23.10% 16.95%
14 2002-12-08 54.1 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1135 59.99% Victoria Rosport 1 1023 23.06% 16.95%
15 2003-03-09 54.1 @ Grevenmacher 1 1207 51.37% Jeunesse Esch 1 1167 31.14% 17.48%
16 2003-04-16 54.1 @ F91 Dudelange 1 1226 56.80% Swift Hesperange 1 1142 26.00% 17.20%
17 2003-05-11 54.1 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1147 59.30% Victoria Rosport 1 1041 23.69% 17.01%
18 2003-03-23 54.0 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1154 50.15% Union Luxembourg 1 1122 32.32% 17.53%
19 2002-08-17 53.9 @ Victoria Rosport 1 1090 45.40% Union Luxembourg 1 1093 36.95% 17.64%
20 2002-08-25 53.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1119 49.37% Union Luxembourg 1 1094 33.08% 17.55%
21 2002-09-01 53.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1119 49.92% Victoria Rosport 1 1089 32.55% 17.54%
22 2002-09-15 53.9 @ Mondercange 1 1022 32.59% Jeunesse Esch 1 1118 49.87% 17.54%
23 2002-11-10 53.9 @ Rumelange 1 1057 46.97% Victoria Rosport 1 1049 35.41% 17.62%
24 2002-11-16 53.9 @ Victoria Rosport 1 1049 34.79% Jeunesse Esch 1 1128 47.61% 17.60%
25 2003-03-09 53.5 @ Sporting Mertzig 4 939 23.92% Mondercange 2 1109 59.05% 17.03%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-11-03 23.8 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1277 80.36% Progres Niedercorn 0 904 6.72% 12.93%
2 2003-04-09 25.9 F91 Dudelange 6 1214 73.18% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 890 11.82% 15.00%
3 2003-03-16 26.1 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1202 72.52% Sporting Mertzig 0 954 12.33% 15.15%
4 2003-04-16 26.7 @ Grevenmacher 5 1259 69.78% Rumelange 0 1046 14.53% 15.69%
5 2003-04-06 27.5 Grevenmacher 3 1249 72.15% @ Sporting Mertzig 0 939 12.62% 15.23%
6 2003-03-09 27.6 @ Swift Hesperange 4 1133 67.58% Wiltz 71 0 945 16.37% 16.05%
7 2002-08-24 27.7 @ Grevenmacher 4 1203 67.48% Progres Niedercorn 0 1016 16.45% 16.07%
8 2002-09-28 28.0 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1246 65.70% Victoria Rosport 0 1078 17.98% 16.32%
9 2002-12-01 28.8 Swift Hesperange 6 1114 63.39% @ Progres Niedercorn 0 903 20.00% 16.61%
10 2003-04-06 28.9 @ F91 Dudelange 6 1194 63.44% Rumelange 0 1049 19.95% 16.60%
11 2002-12-01 29.0 @ Grevenmacher 4 1191 63.11% Avenir Beggen 0 1049 20.25% 16.64%
12 2002-09-14 29.3 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1227 62.21% Union Luxembourg 0 1094 21.05% 16.74%
13 2003-05-11 29.3 @ Mondercange 3 1098 66.02% Wiltz 71 0 927 17.70% 16.28%
14 2002-10-27 29.7 @ Mondercange 4 1038 60.62% Progres Niedercorn 0 920 22.48% 16.89%
15 2002-11-03 29.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1131 70.90% Wiltz 71 0 903 13.62% 15.48%
16 2003-03-16 30.0 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1167 59.65% Rumelange 0 1058 23.37% 16.98%
17 2002-09-29 30.2 Swift Hesperange 4 1102 58.75% @ Wiltz 71 0 935 24.20% 17.05%
18 2002-09-18 30.6 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1079 57.60% Sporting Mertzig 0 988 25.26% 17.14%
19 2002-09-22 30.6 Jeunesse Esch 5 1118 56.41% @ Sporting Mertzig 0 971 26.37% 17.22%
20 2002-10-27 30.9 Union Luxembourg 3 1099 60.60% @ Wiltz 71 0 915 22.51% 16.90%
21 2002-09-18 31.3 @ Swift Hesperange 7 1072 56.68% Progres Niedercorn 0 988 26.12% 17.20%
22 2003-03-09 31.5 F91 Dudelange 7 1171 56.36% @ Victoria Rosport 0 1024 26.41% 17.23%
23 2002-11-10 32.0 @ Swift Hesperange 2 1106 63.87% Sporting Mertzig 0 957 19.57% 16.55%
24 2003-03-16 32.0 Grevenmacher 5 1207 52.07% @ Mondercange 0 1094 30.47% 17.45%
25 2003-05-04 32.2 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1225 56.85% Union Luxembourg 0 1140 25.96% 17.19%