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2003-04 Luxembourg National Division Season

168 games

Final

Champion

Jeunesse Esch

58 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Jeunesse Esch

13.01 points above expected

58 points · 44.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mondercange

6.40 points below expected

18 points · 24.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 22 19 1 2 58 56 13 +43 44.99 +13.01
2 F91 Dudelange 22 14 4 4 46 52 19 +33 41.62 +4.38
3 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 12 8 2 44 56 29 +27 33.16 +10.84
4 Grevenmacher 22 11 3 8 36 47 33 +14 38.28 -2.28
5 Spora Luxembourg 22 12 0 10 36 49 48 +1 27.55 +8.45
6 Union Luxembourg 22 9 5 8 32 31 21 +10 34.67 -2.67
7 Swift Hesperange 22 8 1 13 25 28 41 -13 31.39 -6.39
8 Victoria Rosport 22 7 3 12 24 32 38 -6 28.91 -4.91
9 Avenir Beggen 22 5 5 12 20 20 46 -26 24.47 -4.47
10 Rumelange 22 4 6 12 18 28 55 -27 21.17 -3.17
11 Mondercange 22 5 3 14 18 24 52 -28 24.40 -6.40
12 Wiltz 71 22 5 3 14 18 20 48 -28 20.59 -2.59
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 6 4 1 1 13 10 7 +3 55.32 -42.32
2 Wiltz 71 6 2 4 0 10 11 6 +5 25.40 -15.40
3 Jeunesse Esch 6 3 1 2 10 14 10 +4 68.83 -58.83
4 Mondercange 6 2 3 1 9 8 6 +2 26.34 -17.34
5 Avenir Beggen 6 2 2 2 8 8 8 0 28.55 -20.55
6 Rumelange 6 2 2 2 8 9 11 -2 26.23 -18.23
7 Spora Luxembourg 6 2 2 2 8 7 9 -2 46.26 -38.26
8 Union Luxembourg 6 2 1 3 7 13 10 +3 46.75 -39.75
9 Swift Hesperange 6 2 1 3 7 6 6 0 35.58 -28.58
10 Grevenmacher 6 2 1 3 7 9 11 -2 42.04 -35.04
11 Victoria Rosport 6 2 1 3 7 6 12 -6 34.53 -27.53
12 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 1 1 4 4 7 12 -5 51.48 -47.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jeunesse Esch 58 44.99 +13.01
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 44 33.16 +10.84
3 Spora Luxembourg 36 27.55 +8.45
4 F91 Dudelange 46 41.62 +4.38
5 Grevenmacher 36 38.28 -2.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mondercange 18 24.40 -6.40
2 Swift Hesperange 25 31.39 -6.39
3 Victoria Rosport 24 28.91 -4.91
4 Avenir Beggen 20 24.47 -4.47
5 Rumelange 18 21.17 -3.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 5 Aug 10 – Sep 17 1 in 1,449
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 Nov 9 – Mar 14 1 in 132
3 Jeunesse Esch 9 Sep 17 – Nov 4 1 in 117
4 Avenir Beggen 2 Nov 29 – Dec 7 1 in 19
5 Wiltz 71 2 Nov 30 – Dec 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 7 Nov 23 – Mar 27 1 in 230
2 Avenir Beggen 5 Oct 26 – Nov 23 1 in 46
3 Victoria Rosport 4 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 36
4 Swift Hesperange 4 Dec 7 – Mar 21 1 in 33
5 Rumelange 6 Aug 10 – Sep 21 1 in 31

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Etzella Ettelbruck 9 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 297
2 Rumelange 6 Sep 28 – Oct 26 1 in 90
3 Spora Luxembourg 5 Aug 10 – Sep 17 1 in 67
4 Avenir Beggen 5 Sep 27 – Oct 22 1 in 32
5 Jeunesse Esch 9 Sep 17 – Nov 4 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grevenmacher 5 Sep 28 – Oct 22 1 in 69
2 Avenir Beggen 9 Oct 1 – Nov 23 1 in 40
3 Mondercange 9 Sep 17 – Oct 31 1 in 21
4 Wiltz 71 8 Sep 21 – Nov 9 1 in 19
5 Spora Luxembourg 7 Nov 23 – Mar 27 1 in 18

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Jeunesse Esch 1336 68 -4 7 9.0 -2.0
F91 Dudelange 1309 59 +58 13 7.9 +5.1
Etzella Ettelbruck 1174 48 -75 1 6.0 -5.0
Spora Luxembourg 930 44 -29 7 7.2 -0.2
Grevenmacher 1172 43 +22 7 5.1 +1.9
Union Luxembourg 1091 39 -29 6 10.5 -4.5
Swift Hesperange 940 32 -30 6 8.7 -2.7
Victoria Rosport 885 31 -109 4 6.5 -2.5
Wiltz 71 959 28 +93 9 6.7 +2.3
Avenir Beggen 919 28 +19 7 6.1 +0.9
Mondercange 935 27 +40 8 6.1 +1.9
Rumelange 908 26 +45 8 4.4 +3.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB EE FD GRE JE MON RUM SL SH UL VR W7
Avenir Beggen —
0-1-1
1.70
1-0-1
1.49
1-1-0
1.30
0-0-2
1.43
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
3.48
0-0-2
2.01
1-0-1
1.93
0-2-0
2.39
0-0-2
3.52
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-1-0
3.92
—
0-2-0
1.85
0-2-0
2.74
2-0-0
1.16
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
4.17
0-0-2
3.32
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.66
F91 Dudelange
1-0-1
4.15
0-2-0
3.76
—
0-0-2
3.02
0-1-1
2.47
2-0-0
4.55
2-0-0
4.10
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.91
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.62
2-0-0
4.51
Grevenmacher
0-1-1
4.33
0-2-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.59
—
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
4.14
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
3.18
0-0-2
3.81
2-0-0
4.20
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
4.21
0-0-2
4.48
1-1-0
3.14
2-0-0
3.46
—
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.33
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
4.14
2-0-0
4.89
Mondercange
0-0-2
3.15
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
1.09
1-0-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.27
—
0-2-0
2.92
0-0-2
3.47
0-0-2
2.51
1-1-0
1.73
1-0-1
2.11
2-0-0
3.33
Rumelange
1-1-0
2.44
0-1-1
1.46
0-0-2
1.52
0-0-2
1.46
0-0-2
1.15
0-2-0
2.69
—
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
1.58
0-1-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.63
Spora Luxembourg
2-0-0
2.13
2-0-0
2.30
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
1.74
0-0-2
1.30
2-0-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.16
—
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
1.96
2-0-0
2.61
0-0-2
3.70
Swift Hesperange
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
1.72
0-0-2
2.30
0-0-2
1.85
2-0-0
3.10
0-1-1
4.04
2-0-0
2.99
—
0-0-2
2.62
0-0-2
3.10
2-0-0
3.59
Union Luxembourg
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
3.06
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
3.90
1-1-0
4.09
1-0-1
3.66
2-0-0
2.99
—
2-0-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.92
Victoria Rosport
0-2-0
3.22
0-0-2
2.25
0-0-2
2.00
2-0-0
1.81
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
3.42
0-0-2
3.01
2-0-0
2.51
0-0-2
2.30
—
1-1-0
3.35
Wiltz 71
2-0-0
2.09
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
1.92
0-0-2
2.02
0-1-1
1.71
0-1-1
2.27
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +8.7
Allowed 0.73 -8.0
Differential 0.95 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.98%5.36%6.25%4.17%2.68%1.19%22.62%
15.36%10.12%7.74%5.06%2.08%0.89%31.25%
26.25%7.74%4.76%2.98%0.60%1.19%23.51%
34.17%5.06%2.98%0.60%0.30%0.30%13.39%
42.68%2.08%0.60%0.30%——5.65%
5+1.19%0.89%1.19%0.30%——3.57%
Total22.62%31.25%23.51%13.39%5.65%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.33
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 168

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%10.71%3.57%—3.57%28.57%
110.71%17.86%10.71%3.57%—3.57%46.43%
27.14%3.57%7.14%——3.57%21.43%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%32.14%32.14%7.14%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.93 -0.93
SD 0.82 2.04 2.29
CV 0.82 1.06 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
27.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
310.71%7.14%—3.57%3.57%3.57%28.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total32.14%28.57%17.86%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 1.46 +0.79
SD 1.71 1.53 2.06
CV 0.76 1.04 —
Max 8 6 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—3.57%———7.14%
17.14%14.29%10.71%———32.14%
210.71%10.71%—3.57%——25.00%
33.57%10.71%7.14%———21.43%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total35.71%39.29%21.43%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.93 +1.29
SD 1.66 0.86 2.00
CV 0.75 0.92 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%7.14%7.14%——17.86%
13.57%3.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%—25.00%
23.57%14.29%10.71%3.57%——32.14%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%—3.57%———10.71%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total17.86%32.14%28.57%17.86%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.57 +0.43
SD 1.78 1.10 2.50
CV 0.89 0.70 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———3.57%——3.57%
114.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
210.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
310.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total50.00%28.57%10.71%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.82 +1.68
SD 1.62 1.02 2.20
CV 0.65 1.24 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%—7.14%3.57%35.71%
13.57%7.14%—7.14%7.14%—25.00%
23.57%7.14%10.71%3.57%—3.57%28.57%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.86%28.57%21.43%10.71%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.07 -0.93
SD 1.04 1.84 2.28
CV 0.91 0.89 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%25.00%
13.57%10.71%7.14%—10.71%3.57%35.71%
2—3.57%14.29%——3.57%21.43%
33.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%32.14%7.14%14.29%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.36 -1.04
SD 1.06 1.77 2.20
CV 0.80 0.75 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%3.57%—3.57%14.29%
1—7.14%14.29%3.57%—3.57%28.57%
23.57%17.86%—7.14%——28.57%
3—10.71%————10.71%
4—3.57%3.57%3.57%——10.71%
5+—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
Total3.57%42.86%25.00%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.04 -0.04
SD 1.54 1.57 2.44
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 6 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%7.14%7.14%—32.14%
13.57%7.14%14.29%10.71%——35.71%
214.29%3.57%————17.86%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total21.43%21.43%32.14%17.86%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.68 -0.46
SD 1.23 1.22 2.06
CV 1.01 0.73 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%3.57%—3.57%—28.57%
17.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
23.57%——7.14%3.57%—14.29%
310.71%3.57%————14.29%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+———————
Total35.71%39.29%10.71%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.11 +0.46
SD 1.43 1.20 2.05
CV 0.91 1.08 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%3.57%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
13.57%7.14%10.71%10.71%——32.14%
27.14%3.57%——3.57%—14.29%
3——10.71%———10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total17.86%25.00%28.57%17.86%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.79 -0.43
SD 1.73 1.26 2.18
CV 1.27 0.70 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—10.71%14.29%3.57%—35.71%
1—14.29%3.57%10.71%——28.57%
23.57%14.29%3.57%3.57%—3.57%28.57%
3——3.57%———3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%21.43%28.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.93 -0.82
SD 1.07 1.39 1.93
CV 0.96 0.72 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Jeunesse Esch 1336 58 44.99 +13.01 100.0% 32 36 42 46 48 53 56
F91 Dudelange 1309 46 41.62 +4.38 80.0% 22 31 38 41 45 51 56
Etzella Ettelbruck 1174 44 33.16 +10.84 95.0% 21 23 29 33 37 44 48
Grevenmacher 1172 36 38.28 -2.28 37.0% 22 27 35 38 42 49 53
Union Luxembourg 1091 32 34.67 -2.67 34.0% 17 23 31 34 39 44 52
Wiltz 71 959 18 20.59 -2.59 34.0% 9 13 17 20 24 30 33
Swift Hesperange 940 25 31.39 -6.39 15.0% 13 23 28 31 35 42 45
Mondercange 935 18 24.40 -6.40 13.0% 9 15 20 24 29 33 35
Spora Luxembourg 930 36 27.55 +8.45 94.0% 9 16 23 28 32 37 41
Avenir Beggen 919 20 24.47 -4.47 24.0% 11 15 21 24 29 33 42
Rumelange 908 18 21.17 -3.17 30.0% 10 12 17 21 25 29 33
Victoria Rosport 885 24 28.91 -4.91 22.0% 15 17 25 29 34 38 43

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.69%
Clear Edge
47.62%18.45%33.93%
Elo Value
Home Edge
146 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
047.87400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Jeunesse Esch, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.55/gm
Runaway
00.220.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.65 * Some Luck: 4.65 to 6.97 * Lucky: 6.97 to 9.3 * Wild Swing: 9.3 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.65 * Way Off: 2.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.65 points
Some Luck
05.8115
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.654
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Jeunesse Esch
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
13.00%
Mondercange
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 167.17
2.04
Strong Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
94%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Some Drama
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Occasional
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Slight Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.42
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.37
Weak Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.70
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Jeunesse Esch54.00%24.00%15.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%—————
F91 Dudelange27.00%32.00%20.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%—1.00%——
Etzella Ettelbruck3.00%7.00%12.00%15.00%15.00%14.00%14.00%9.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%—
Grevenmacher10.00%22.00%23.00%19.00%11.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%——
Spora Luxembourg—1.00%1.00%8.00%14.00%11.00%14.00%15.00%12.00%13.00%5.00%6.00%
Union Luxembourg5.00%10.00%13.00%21.00%13.00%19.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Swift Hesperange——11.00%13.00%11.00%20.00%16.00%8.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%
Victoria Rosport1.00%4.00%2.00%7.00%19.00%7.00%13.00%16.00%11.00%8.00%7.00%5.00%
Avenir Beggen——3.00%—4.00%6.00%10.00%15.00%18.00%13.00%15.00%16.00%
Rumelange———1.00%1.00%4.00%3.00%9.00%16.00%18.00%26.00%22.00%
Mondercange———1.00%6.00%9.00%11.00%15.00%12.00%14.00%20.00%12.00%
Wiltz 71—————2.00%5.00%7.00%11.00%16.00%22.00%37.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
F91 Dudelange 99.00% 1.00%
Grevenmacher 99.00% 1.00%
Union Luxembourg 99.00% 1.00%
Swift Hesperange 93.00% 7.00%
Victoria Rosport 92.00% 8.00%
Spora Luxembourg 91.00% 9.00%
Mondercange 75.00% 25.00%
Avenir Beggen 64.00% 36.00%
Rumelange 49.00% 51.00%
Wiltz 71 39.00% 61.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Spora Luxembourg 100% —
Union Luxembourg 100% —
Swift Hesperange 98.14% 1.86%
Victoria Rosport 97.10% 2.90%
Avenir Beggen 72.06% 27.94%
Rumelange 48.85% 51.15%
Mondercange 47.86% 52.14%
Wiltz 71 35.99% 64.01%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-08-09 F91 Dudelange W 3-253.7 1027 1138 31.59% 19.48% 48.93%-0.43 +15.9 3
2003-08-09 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-353.7 1138 1027 48.93% 19.48% 31.59%+0.43 -15.9 0
2003-08-10 Jeunesse Esch L 1-247.2 1110 1137 43.17% 19.56% 37.27%+0.14 -15.1 0
2003-08-10 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-147.2 1137 1110 37.27% 19.56% 43.17%-0.14 +15.1 3
2003-08-10 Union Luxembourg D 1-153.9 974 1076 32.73% 19.51% 47.77%-0.37 +1.2 1
2003-08-10 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-153.9 1076 974 47.77% 19.51% 32.73%+0.37 -1.2 1
2003-08-10 Rumelange W 1-034.3 1175 1009 65.33% 18.54% 16.13%+1.46 +6.8 3
2003-08-10 @ Grevenmacher L 0-134.3 1009 1175 16.13% 18.54% 65.33%-1.46 -6.8 0
2003-08-10 Spora Luxembourg L 1-352.6 1062 832 70.34% 17.86% 11.80%+1.90 -41.0 0
2003-08-10 @ Mondercange W 3-152.6 832 1062 11.80% 17.86% 70.34%-1.90 +41.0 3
2003-08-10 Victoria Rosport W 1-042.9 973 1047 36.48% 19.56% 43.96%-0.18 +16.2 3
2003-08-10 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-142.9 1047 973 43.96% 19.56% 36.48%+0.18 -16.2 0
2003-08-23 Swift Hesperange W 2-038.0 1075 1095 44.16% 19.56% 36.28%+0.19 +26.2 4
2003-08-23 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-238.0 1095 1075 36.28% 19.56% 44.16%-0.19 -26.2 0
2003-08-24 Avenir Beggen W 3-148.8 873 1043 24.61% 19.23% 56.16%-0.83 +33.0 6
2003-08-24 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-348.8 1043 873 56.16% 19.23% 24.61%+0.83 -33.0 3
2003-08-24 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.1 1122 989 62.36% 18.82% 18.81%+1.24 -3.7 1
2003-08-24 @ F91 Dudelange D 1-154.1 989 1122 18.81% 18.82% 62.36%-1.24 +3.7 4
2003-08-24 Mondercange W 1-035.2 1152 1021 62.14% 18.84% 19.02%+1.22 +8.0 6
2003-08-24 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-135.2 1021 1152 19.02% 18.84% 62.14%-1.22 -7.9 0
2003-08-24 Rumelange W 8-236.2 1031 1002 50.65% 19.44% 29.91%+0.52 +42.3 3
2003-08-24 @ Victoria Rosport L 2-836.2 1002 1031 29.91% 19.44% 50.65%-0.52 -42.3 0
2003-08-24 Wiltz 71 W 3-135.6 1182 975 68.63% 18.12% 13.25%+1.74 +9.2 6
2003-08-24 @ Grevenmacher L 1-335.6 975 1182 13.25% 18.12% 68.63%-1.74 -9.2 1
2003-08-30 Jeunesse Esch L 0-137.7 1010 1160 26.83% 19.33% 53.83%-0.70 -10.8 3
2003-08-30 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-037.7 1160 1010 53.83% 19.33% 26.83%+0.70 +10.8 9
2003-08-31 Grevenmacher W 3-254.0 1073 1191 30.72% 19.46% 49.82%-0.48 +16.2 6
2003-08-31 @ Victoria Rosport L 2-354.0 1191 1073 49.82% 19.46% 30.72%+0.48 -16.2 6
2003-08-31 Union Luxembourg W 2-040.9 1013 1101 34.65% 19.54% 45.81%-0.27 +31.7 3
2003-08-31 @ Mondercange L 0-240.9 1101 1013 45.81% 19.54% 34.65%+0.27 -31.7 4
2003-08-31 Wiltz 71 W 3-031.3 1069 966 59.31% 19.05% 21.64%+1.03 +24.5 3
2003-08-31 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-331.3 966 1069 21.64% 19.05% 59.31%-1.03 -24.5 1
2003-09-01 F91 Dudelange L 0-137.4 960 1118 25.86% 19.29% 54.85%-0.76 -10.4 0
2003-09-01 @ Rumelange W 1-037.4 1118 960 54.85% 19.29% 25.86%+0.76 +10.5 4
2003-09-01 Spora Luxembourg L 3-651.9 993 906 57.55% 19.15% 23.29%+0.92 -38.2 4
2003-09-01 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 6-351.9 906 993 23.29% 19.15% 57.55%-0.92 +38.3 9
2003-09-13 Swift Hesperange W 4-030.9 1175 1093 57.00% 19.18% 23.81%+0.89 +34.8 9
2003-09-13 @ Grevenmacher L 0-430.9 1093 1175 23.81% 19.18% 57.00%-0.89 -34.8 3
2003-09-13 Victoria Rosport W 2-035.7 1129 1089 52.04% 19.40% 28.56%+0.60 +21.4 7
2003-09-13 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-235.7 1089 1129 28.56% 19.40% 52.04%-0.60 -21.4 6
2003-09-14 Avenir Beggen L 0-146.3 1069 999 55.69% 19.25% 25.06%+0.81 -20.0 4
2003-09-14 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-046.3 999 1069 25.06% 19.25% 55.69%-0.81 +20.0 6
2003-09-14 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-352.4 1171 954 69.36% 18.01% 12.62%+1.81 -40.5 9
2003-09-14 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-152.4 954 1171 12.62% 18.01% 69.36%-1.81 +40.5 7
2003-09-14 Mondercange L 1-243.9 941 1045 32.54% 19.50% 47.96%-0.38 -12.0 1
2003-09-14 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-143.9 1045 941 47.96% 19.50% 32.54%+0.38 +12.0 6
2003-09-14 Rumelange W 2-037.4 944 949 46.22% 19.53% 34.25%+0.29 +25.0 12
2003-09-14 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-237.4 949 944 34.25% 19.53% 46.22%-0.29 -25.0 0
2003-09-17 Grevenmacher L 1-245.9 1150 1209 38.60% 19.57% 41.83%-0.08 -13.8 7
2003-09-17 @ F91 Dudelange W 2-145.9 1209 1150 41.83% 19.57% 38.60%+0.08 +13.8 12
2003-09-17 Jeunesse Esch L 1-435.9 924 1130 20.93% 19.00% 60.07%-1.08 -20.0 0
2003-09-17 @ Rumelange W 4-135.9 1130 924 60.07% 19.00% 20.93%+1.08 +20.0 12
2003-09-17 Union Luxembourg D 0-050.3 995 1049 39.28% 19.57% 41.15%-0.04 +0.2 8
2003-09-17 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-050.3 1049 995 41.15% 19.57% 39.28%+0.04 -0.2 5
2003-09-17 Spora Luxembourg L 2-453.8 1068 969 58.84% 19.08% 22.08%+1.00 -30.8 6
2003-09-17 @ Victoria Rosport W 4-253.8 969 1068 22.08% 19.08% 58.84%-1.00 +30.8 15
2003-09-17 Swift Hesperange L 1-346.1 1057 1058 46.72% 19.52% 33.76%+0.32 -27.9 6
2003-09-17 @ Mondercange W 3-146.1 1058 1057 33.76% 19.52% 46.72%-0.32 +27.9 6
2003-09-17 Wiltz 71 L 0-244.3 1019 929 57.92% 19.13% 22.94%+0.94 -39.2 6
2003-09-17 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-044.3 929 1019 22.94% 19.13% 57.92%-0.94 +39.2 4
2003-09-21 Avenir Beggen W 5-239.4 1086 980 59.66% 19.03% 21.31%+1.05 +17.6 9
2003-09-21 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-539.4 980 1086 21.31% 19.03% 59.66%-1.05 -17.6 6
2003-09-21 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-153.9 968 995 43.26% 19.56% 37.18%+0.15 -0.5 5
2003-09-21 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-153.9 995 968 37.18% 19.56% 43.26%-0.15 +0.5 9
2003-09-21 F91 Dudelange L 2-347.5 1000 1136 28.44% 19.39% 52.17%-0.61 -10.1 15
2003-09-21 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-247.5 1136 1000 52.17% 19.39% 28.44%+0.61 +10.1 10
2003-09-21 Mondercange W 5-027.4 1223 1029 67.68% 18.25% 14.07%+1.66 +26.5 15
2003-09-21 @ Grevenmacher L 0-527.4 1029 1223 14.07% 18.25% 67.68%-1.66 -26.5 6
2003-09-21 Rumelange W 4-134.9 1049 904 63.44% 18.73% 17.83%+1.32 +17.3 8
2003-09-21 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-434.9 904 1049 17.83% 18.73% 63.44%-1.32 -17.3 0
2003-09-21 Victoria Rosport W 3-138.1 1150 1037 60.41% 18.97% 20.62%+1.10 +14.0 15
2003-09-21 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-338.1 1037 1150 20.62% 18.97% 60.41%-1.10 -14.0 6
2003-09-27 Mondercange W 2-038.8 962 1002 41.33% 19.57% 39.10%+0.05 +27.8 9
2003-09-27 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-238.8 1002 962 39.10% 19.57% 41.33%-0.05 -27.8 6
2003-09-27 Union Luxembourg L 0-142.0 1023 1066 40.85% 19.57% 39.57%+0.03 -15.3 6
2003-09-27 @ Victoria Rosport W 1-042.0 1066 1023 39.57% 19.57% 40.85%-0.03 +15.3 11
2003-09-28 Grevenmacher W 3-151.3 990 1250 16.27% 18.55% 65.17%-1.45 +38.1 18
2003-09-28 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-351.3 1250 990 65.17% 18.55% 16.27%+1.45 -38.1 15
2003-09-28 Jeunesse Esch L 1-247.6 1147 1164 44.48% 19.55% 35.96%+0.21 -15.5 10
2003-09-28 @ F91 Dudelange W 2-147.6 1164 1147 35.96% 19.55% 44.48%-0.21 +15.5 18
2003-09-28 Swift Hesperange W 3-146.6 995 1104 31.92% 19.49% 48.59%-0.41 +28.9 12
2003-09-28 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-346.6 1104 995 48.59% 19.49% 31.92%+0.41 -28.9 9
2003-09-28 Wiltz 71 W 3-252.4 887 968 35.57% 19.55% 44.89%-0.23 +14.8 3
2003-09-28 @ Rumelange L 2-352.4 968 887 44.89% 19.55% 35.57%+0.23 -14.8 5
2003-10-01 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.4 1212 990 69.72% 17.96% 12.32%+1.84 -5.1 16
2003-10-01 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.4 990 1212 12.32% 17.96% 69.72%-1.84 +5.1 10
2003-10-01 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-441.8 975 1024 39.95% 19.58% 40.47%-0.01 -34.7 6
2003-10-01 @ Mondercange W 4-141.8 1024 975 40.47% 19.58% 39.95%+0.01 +34.7 15
2003-10-01 F91 Dudelange D 1-153.9 1082 1131 39.98% 19.58% 40.44%-0.01 +0.0 12
2003-10-01 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-153.9 1131 1082 40.44% 19.58% 39.98%+0.01 -0.0 11
2003-10-01 Rumelange D 1-154.2 1075 902 65.95% 18.47% 15.58%+1.51 -4.4 10
2003-10-01 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.2 902 1075 15.58% 18.47% 65.95%-1.51 +4.4 4
2003-10-01 Spora Luxembourg W 5-028.5 1180 1028 64.09% 18.66% 17.25%+1.37 +32.0 21
2003-10-01 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-528.5 1028 1180 17.25% 18.66% 64.09%-1.37 -32.0 18
2003-10-01 Victoria Rosport D 0-050.3 953 1008 39.28% 19.57% 41.15%-0.04 +0.2 6
2003-10-01 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.3 1008 953 41.15% 19.57% 39.28%+0.04 -0.2 7
2003-10-05 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.0 1059 995 54.96% 19.28% 25.76%+0.76 -2.4 16
2003-10-05 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.0 995 1059 25.76% 19.28% 54.96%-0.76 +2.4 11
2003-10-05 Grevenmacher W 3-035.1 1212 1206 47.61% 19.51% 32.88%+0.36 +35.1 24
2003-10-05 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-335.1 1206 1212 32.88% 19.51% 47.61%-0.36 -35.1 16
2003-10-05 Mondercange D 2-258.8 906 940 42.23% 19.57% 38.20%+0.10 -0.2 5
2003-10-05 @ Rumelange D 2-258.8 940 906 38.20% 19.57% 42.23%-0.10 +0.2 7
2003-10-05 Union Luxembourg W 2-147.8 996 1082 34.92% 19.54% 45.54%-0.26 +15.8 21
2003-10-05 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-247.8 1082 996 45.54% 19.54% 34.92%+0.26 -15.8 12
2003-10-05 Swift Hesperange W 2-146.9 1007 1071 38.05% 19.57% 42.38%-0.10 +14.8 10
2003-10-05 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-246.9 1071 1007 42.38% 19.57% 38.05%+0.10 -14.9 10
2003-10-05 Wiltz 71 W 3-029.2 1131 953 66.34% 18.42% 15.24%+1.54 +17.7 14
2003-10-05 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-329.2 953 1131 15.24% 18.42% 66.34%-1.54 -17.7 6
2003-10-17 Rumelange D 2-259.0 998 906 58.12% 19.12% 22.76%+0.96 -2.2 12
2003-10-17 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-259.0 906 998 22.76% 19.12% 58.12%-0.96 +2.2 6
2003-10-19 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.1 1171 1057 60.55% 18.96% 20.49%+1.11 -2.5 17
2003-10-19 @ Grevenmacher D 2-259.1 1057 1171 20.49% 18.96% 60.55%-1.11 +2.5 17
2003-10-19 F91 Dudelange L 1-342.2 1056 1149 33.92% 19.53% 46.55%-0.31 -21.5 10
2003-10-19 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-142.2 1149 1056 46.55% 19.53% 33.92%+0.31 +21.5 17
2003-10-19 Victoria Rosport L 2-349.6 940 1022 35.41% 19.55% 45.04%-0.23 -12.2 7
2003-10-19 @ Mondercange W 3-249.6 1022 940 45.04% 19.55% 35.41%+0.23 +12.2 13
2003-10-22 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.0 1034 995 51.97% 19.40% 28.63%+0.59 -1.9 14
2003-10-22 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-154.0 995 1034 28.63% 19.40% 51.97%-0.59 +1.9 13
2003-10-22 Etzella Ettelbruck D 3-363.1 908 1059 26.73% 19.33% 53.94%-0.71 +1.4 7
2003-10-22 @ Rumelange D 3-363.1 1059 908 53.94% 19.33% 26.73%+0.71 -1.4 18
2003-10-22 Grevenmacher W 3-039.4 1066 1169 32.62% 19.50% 47.88%-0.38 +47.9 15
2003-10-22 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-339.4 1169 1066 47.88% 19.50% 32.62%+0.38 -47.8 17
2003-10-22 Mondercange W 2-029.9 1170 928 71.16% 17.72% 11.12%+1.99 +9.0 20
2003-10-22 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-229.9 928 1170 11.12% 17.72% 71.16%-1.99 -9.0 7
2003-10-22 Swift Hesperange L 1-247.3 1012 1034 43.82% 19.56% 36.62%+0.17 -15.3 21
2003-10-22 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-147.3 1034 1012 36.62% 19.56% 43.82%-0.17 +15.3 13
2003-10-22 Wiltz 71 W 3-026.5 1247 936 75.30% 16.82% 7.88%+2.46 +9.3 27
2003-10-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-326.5 936 1247 7.88% 16.82% 75.30%-2.46 -9.3 6
2003-10-26 F91 Dudelange D 1-154.0 1058 1179 30.25% 19.45% 50.30%-0.50 +1.6 19
2003-10-26 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.0 1179 1058 50.30% 19.45% 30.25%+0.50 -1.6 21
2003-10-26 Grevenmacher L 0-233.6 926 1121 22.03% 19.08% 58.90%-1.00 -17.1 6
2003-10-26 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-033.6 1121 926 58.90% 19.08% 22.03%+1.00 +17.1 20
2003-10-26 Jeunesse Esch L 0-426.6 919 1256 11.17% 17.73% 71.11%-1.98 -17.2 7
2003-10-26 @ Mondercange W 4-026.6 1256 919 71.11% 17.73% 11.17%+1.98 +17.2 30
2003-10-26 Union Luxembourg L 0-336.4 1049 1114 37.88% 19.57% 42.55%-0.11 -39.4 13
2003-10-26 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-036.4 1114 1049 42.55% 19.57% 37.88%+0.11 +39.4 18
2003-10-26 Spora Luxembourg L 1-248.2 997 996 47.03% 19.52% 33.45%+0.33 -16.2 13
2003-10-26 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-148.2 996 997 33.45% 19.52% 47.03%-0.33 +16.2 24
2003-10-26 Victoria Rosport W 3-040.1 910 1033 30.07% 19.44% 50.48%-0.51 +50.1 10
2003-10-26 @ Rumelange L 0-340.1 1033 910 50.48% 19.44% 30.07%+0.51 -50.1 14
2003-10-31 Avenir Beggen W 8-026.7 1273 981 74.25% 17.08% 8.67%+2.33 +25.7 33
2003-10-31 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-826.7 981 1273 8.67% 17.08% 74.25%-2.33 -25.7 13
2003-10-31 Mondercange D 0-050.9 1153 902 71.76% 17.61% 10.63%+2.05 -6.1 19
2003-10-31 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-050.9 902 1153 10.63% 17.61% 71.76%-2.05 +6.1 8
2003-11-02 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-354.4 1013 1059 40.38% 19.58% 40.04%+0.01 +13.1 27
2003-11-02 @ Spora Luxembourg L 3-454.4 1059 1013 40.04% 19.58% 40.38%-0.01 -13.1 19
2003-11-02 Rumelange W 5-026.8 1178 960 69.47% 18.00% 12.53%+1.82 +23.7 24
2003-11-02 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-526.8 960 1178 12.53% 18.00% 69.47%-1.82 -23.7 10
2003-11-02 Swift Hesperange L 0-237.0 909 1010 32.91% 19.51% 47.58%-0.36 -24.2 6
2003-11-02 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-037.0 1010 909 47.58% 19.51% 32.91%+0.36 +24.2 16
2003-11-02 Victoria Rosport L 1-448.9 1138 982 64.45% 18.63% 16.92%+1.39 -53.2 20
2003-11-02 @ Grevenmacher W 4-148.9 982 1138 16.92% 18.63% 64.45%-1.39 +53.2 17
2003-11-04 Jeunesse Esch L 0-432.0 1147 1299 26.61% 19.32% 54.07%-0.71 -38.3 19
2003-11-04 @ Union Luxembourg W 4-032.0 1299 1147 54.07% 19.32% 26.61%+0.71 +38.3 36
2003-11-09 F91 Dudelange L 1-241.6 1036 1201 25.07% 19.25% 55.68%-0.81 -9.6 17
2003-11-09 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-141.6 1201 1036 55.68% 19.25% 25.07%+0.81 +9.6 27
2003-11-09 Grevenmacher L 1-246.1 1034 1085 39.81% 19.58% 40.62%-0.02 -14.1 16
2003-11-09 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-146.1 1085 1034 40.62% 19.58% 39.81%+0.02 +14.1 23
2003-11-09 Jeunesse Esch W 3-045.1 1046 1337 13.99% 18.24% 67.77%-1.66 +66.3 22
2003-11-09 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-345.1 1337 1046 67.77% 18.24% 13.99%+1.66 -66.3 36
2003-11-09 Union Luxembourg L 0-137.6 955 1109 26.46% 19.32% 54.23%-0.72 -10.7 13
2003-11-09 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-037.6 1109 955 54.23% 19.32% 26.46%+0.72 +10.7 22
2003-11-09 Spora Luxembourg L 1-538.3 936 1026 34.37% 19.53% 46.09%-0.29 -39.6 10
2003-11-09 @ Rumelange W 5-138.3 1026 936 46.09% 19.53% 34.37%+0.29 +39.6 30
2003-11-09 Wiltz 71 W 3-034.1 908 885 49.91% 19.46% 30.63%+0.48 +33.0 11
2003-11-09 @ Mondercange L 0-334.1 885 908 30.63% 19.46% 49.91%-0.48 -33.1 6
2003-11-15 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-144.1 1119 1113 47.82% 19.50% 32.67%+0.37 -17.5 22
2003-11-15 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-044.1 1113 1119 32.67% 19.50% 47.82%-0.37 +17.5 25
2003-11-15 F91 Dudelange W 2-148.9 1099 1211 31.47% 19.48% 49.05%-0.44 +16.8 26
2003-11-15 @ Grevenmacher L 1-248.9 1211 1099 49.05% 19.48% 31.47%+0.44 -16.8 27
2003-11-15 Rumelange W 2-134.8 1271 896 78.38% 15.90% 5.72%+2.89 +2.3 39
2003-11-15 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-234.8 896 1271 5.72% 15.90% 78.38%-2.89 -2.3 10
2003-11-15 Victoria Rosport W 2-142.7 1065 1026 52.01% 19.40% 28.60%+0.60 +10.7 33
2003-11-15 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-242.7 1026 1065 28.60% 19.40% 52.01%-0.60 -10.7 17
2003-11-16 Avenir Beggen W 2-148.1 852 945 33.98% 19.53% 46.50%-0.31 +16.1 9
2003-11-16 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-248.1 945 852 46.50% 19.53% 33.98%+0.31 -16.1 13
2003-11-16 Mondercange W 1-036.8 1020 941 56.73% 19.20% 24.07%+0.87 +9.8 19
2003-11-16 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-136.8 941 1020 24.07% 19.20% 56.73%-0.87 -9.8 11
2003-11-23 Grevenmacher W 2-151.4 931 1116 23.04% 19.14% 57.82%-0.94 +19.6 14
2003-11-23 @ Mondercange L 1-251.4 1116 931 57.82% 19.14% 23.04%+0.94 -19.6 26
2003-11-23 Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.4 1015 1273 16.41% 18.57% 65.02%-1.44 -6.9 17
2003-11-23 @ Victoria Rosport W 1-034.4 1273 1015 65.02% 18.57% 16.41%+1.44 +6.9 42
2003-11-23 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.1 894 1102 20.75% 18.98% 60.27%-1.09 +3.4 11
2003-11-23 @ Rumelange D 1-154.1 1102 894 60.27% 18.98% 20.75%+1.09 -3.4 23
2003-11-23 Spora Luxembourg W 2-033.0 1194 1076 60.87% 18.94% 20.19%+1.13 +15.8 30
2003-11-23 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-233.0 1076 1194 20.19% 18.94% 60.87%-1.13 -15.8 33
2003-11-23 Swift Hesperange L 0-236.9 929 1030 32.86% 19.51% 47.63%-0.37 -24.1 13
2003-11-23 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-036.9 1030 929 47.63% 19.51% 32.86%+0.37 +24.1 22
2003-11-24 Wiltz 71 W 6-232.8 1130 868 72.44% 17.47% 10.09%+2.12 +11.0 28
2003-11-24 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-632.8 868 1130 10.09% 17.47% 72.44%-2.12 -11.0 9
2003-11-29 Avenir Beggen L 0-145.5 951 905 52.84% 19.37% 27.79%+0.64 -19.1 14
2003-11-29 @ Mondercange W 1-045.5 905 951 27.79% 19.37% 52.84%-0.64 +19.1 16
2003-11-30 F91 Dudelange D 1-154.4 1280 1210 55.72% 19.25% 25.03%+0.81 -2.6 43
2003-11-30 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.4 1210 1280 25.03% 19.25% 55.72%-0.81 +2.5 31
2003-11-30 Rumelange W 2-145.9 857 897 41.29% 19.57% 39.14%+0.05 +13.9 12
2003-11-30 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-245.9 897 857 39.14% 19.57% 41.29%-0.05 -13.9 11
2003-11-30 Spora Luxembourg W 8-134.6 1096 1060 51.59% 19.41% 29.00%+0.57 +57.5 29
2003-11-30 @ Grevenmacher L 1-834.6 1060 1096 29.00% 19.41% 51.59%-0.57 -57.5 33
2003-11-30 Victoria Rosport W 4-030.5 1099 1008 57.95% 19.13% 22.92%+0.94 +33.6 26
2003-11-30 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-430.5 1008 1099 22.92% 19.13% 57.95%-0.94 -33.6 17
2003-12-03 Spora Luxembourg W 2-149.6 871 1003 28.99% 19.41% 51.60%-0.57 +17.6 15
2003-12-03 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-249.6 1003 871 51.60% 19.41% 28.99%+0.57 -17.6 33
2003-12-05 Mondercange W 8-230.8 1141 932 68.84% 18.09% 13.07%+1.76 +20.0 31
2003-12-05 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-830.8 932 1141 13.07% 18.09% 68.84%-1.76 -20.0 14
2003-12-07 Grevenmacher W 1-048.2 924 1154 18.72% 18.81% 62.47%-1.25 +22.3 19
2003-12-07 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-148.2 1154 924 62.47% 18.81% 18.72%+1.25 -22.4 29
2003-12-07 Jeunesse Esch L 0-230.9 985 1278 13.90% 18.23% 67.87%-1.67 -11.2 33
2003-12-07 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-030.9 1278 985 67.87% 18.23% 13.90%+1.67 +11.2 46
2003-12-07 Union Luxembourg W 1-036.9 1212 1132 56.86% 19.19% 23.95%+0.88 +9.8 34
2003-12-07 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-136.9 1132 1212 23.95% 19.19% 56.86%-0.88 -9.8 26
2003-12-07 Swift Hesperange W 3-148.8 884 1054 24.54% 19.22% 56.23%-0.84 +33.0 14
2003-12-07 @ Rumelange L 1-348.8 1054 884 56.23% 19.22% 24.54%+0.84 -33.0 22
2003-12-07 Wiltz 71 W 2-034.0 975 889 57.51% 19.16% 23.33%+0.92 +18.0 20
2003-12-07 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-234.0 889 975 23.33% 19.16% 57.51%-0.92 -18.0 15
2003-12-11 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-235.5 1021 1161 28.01% 19.38% 52.61%-0.63 -21.1 22
2003-12-11 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-035.5 1161 1021 52.61% 19.38% 28.01%+0.63 +21.1 34
2004-03-14 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-330.2 946 1182 18.20% 18.76% 63.04%-1.29 -20.9 19
2004-03-14 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-030.2 1182 946 63.04% 18.76% 18.20%+1.29 +20.9 37
2004-03-14 F91 Dudelange L 1-334.6 871 1222 10.39% 17.55% 72.06%-2.08 -7.3 15
2004-03-14 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-134.6 1222 871 72.06% 17.55% 10.39%+2.08 +7.3 37
2004-03-14 Jeunesse Esch L 0-235.1 1131 1289 25.99% 19.29% 54.72%-0.75 -19.8 29
2004-03-14 @ Grevenmacher W 2-035.1 1289 1131 54.72% 19.29% 25.99%+0.75 +19.8 49
2004-03-14 Rumelange D 2-258.8 912 917 46.23% 19.53% 34.24%+0.29 -0.7 15
2004-03-14 @ Mondercange D 2-258.8 917 912 34.24% 19.53% 46.23%-0.29 +0.7 15
2004-03-14 Spora Luxembourg W 3-137.0 1122 974 63.79% 18.69% 17.52%+1.34 +12.0 29
2004-03-14 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-337.0 974 1122 17.52% 18.69% 63.79%-1.34 -12.0 33
2004-03-14 Victoria Rosport L 0-144.0 1000 993 47.86% 19.50% 32.63%+0.38 -17.5 22
2004-03-14 @ Swift Hesperange W 1-044.0 993 1000 32.63% 19.50% 47.86%-0.38 +17.5 23
2004-03-21 Avenir Beggen W 1-040.1 917 925 45.84% 19.54% 34.63%+0.27 +13.4 18
2004-03-21 @ Rumelange L 0-140.1 925 917 34.63% 19.54% 45.84%-0.27 -13.4 19
2004-03-21 Grevenmacher D 2-259.1 1203 1112 58.08% 19.12% 22.79%+0.95 -2.2 38
2004-03-21 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.1 1112 1203 22.79% 19.12% 58.08%-0.95 +2.2 30
2004-03-21 Mondercange L 1-349.6 1010 911 58.94% 19.07% 21.98%+1.01 -34.5 23
2004-03-21 @ Victoria Rosport W 3-149.6 911 1010 21.98% 19.07% 58.94%-1.01 +34.5 18
2004-03-21 Union Luxembourg W 1-034.3 1309 1134 66.05% 18.46% 15.50%+1.52 +6.6 52
2004-03-21 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.3 1134 1309 15.50% 18.46% 66.05%-1.52 -6.6 29
2004-03-21 Swift Hesperange W 4-026.5 1230 982 71.49% 17.66% 10.86%+2.02 +16.7 40
2004-03-21 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-426.5 982 1230 10.86% 17.66% 71.49%-2.02 -16.7 22
2004-03-21 Wiltz 71 L 1-251.6 962 863 58.87% 19.08% 22.06%+1.00 -19.9 33
2004-03-21 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-151.6 863 962 22.06% 19.08% 58.87%-1.00 +19.9 18
2004-03-25 Rumelange W 3-027.2 1201 931 72.95% 17.37% 9.68%+2.18 +11.4 41
2004-03-25 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-327.2 931 1201 9.68% 17.37% 72.95%-2.18 -11.4 18
2004-03-27 F91 Dudelange L 0-427.4 945 1246 13.34% 18.14% 68.52%-1.73 -20.4 18
2004-03-27 @ Mondercange W 4-027.4 1246 945 68.52% 18.14% 13.34%+1.73 +20.4 43
2004-03-27 Jeunesse Esch L 1-333.2 883 1315 6.94% 16.47% 76.59%-2.63 -4.9 18
2004-03-27 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-133.2 1315 883 76.59% 16.47% 6.94%+2.63 +4.9 55
2004-03-27 Union Luxembourg W 4-247.0 1114 1128 44.99% 19.55% 35.47%+0.23 +19.9 33
2004-03-27 @ Grevenmacher L 2-447.0 1128 1114 35.47% 19.55% 44.99%-0.23 -19.9 29
2004-03-27 Spora Luxembourg W 3-248.1 966 942 50.02% 19.45% 30.52%+0.49 +10.8 25
2004-03-27 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-348.1 942 966 30.52% 19.45% 50.02%-0.49 -10.8 33
2004-03-27 Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 912 976 37.92% 19.57% 42.51%-0.11 +0.4 20
2004-03-27 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-153.9 976 912 42.51% 19.57% 37.92%+0.11 -0.4 24
2004-04-04 Avenir Beggen W 8-126.9 1267 912 77.47% 16.20% 6.33%+2.75 +13.5 46
2004-04-04 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-826.9 912 1267 6.33% 16.20% 77.47%-2.75 -13.5 20
2004-04-04 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-239.4 975 1212 18.13% 18.76% 63.11%-1.29 -7.2 24
2004-04-04 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-139.4 1212 975 63.11% 18.76% 18.13%+1.29 +7.2 44
2004-04-04 Grevenmacher L 0-429.6 919 1134 20.12% 18.93% 60.95%-1.14 -29.9 18
2004-04-04 @ Rumelange W 4-029.6 1134 919 60.95% 18.93% 20.12%+1.14 +29.9 36
2004-04-04 Mondercange W 4-139.6 931 925 47.75% 19.51% 32.74%+0.37 +29.5 36
2004-04-04 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-439.6 925 931 32.74% 19.51% 47.75%-0.37 -29.5 18
2004-04-04 Swift Hesperange W 3-026.1 1320 977 76.95% 16.36% 6.69%+2.68 +7.9 58
2004-04-04 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-326.1 977 1320 6.69% 16.36% 76.95%-2.68 -7.9 25
2004-04-04 Wiltz 71 W 4-026.8 1108 878 70.30% 17.86% 11.83%+1.90 +18.2 32
2004-04-04 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-426.8 878 1108 11.83% 17.86% 70.30%-1.90 -18.2 18

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-04-10 Avenir Beggen D 1-153.9 896 899 46.48% 19.53% 33.99%+0.31 -1.0 1
2004-04-10 @ Mondercange D 1-153.9 899 896 33.99% 19.53% 46.48%-0.31 +1.0 1
2004-04-10 F91 Dudelange W 2-040.2 1219 1280 38.37% 19.57% 42.06%-0.09 +29.5 3
2004-04-10 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-240.2 1280 1219 42.06% 19.57% 38.37%+0.09 -29.5 0
2004-04-10 Grevenmacher W 2-032.1 1328 1164 65.20% 18.55% 16.25%+1.45 +13.0 3
2004-04-10 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-232.1 1164 1328 16.25% 18.55% 65.20%-1.45 -13.0 0
2004-04-10 Swift Hesperange D 1-153.9 961 969 45.83% 19.54% 34.63%+0.27 -0.9 1
2004-04-10 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-153.9 969 961 34.63% 19.54% 45.83%-0.27 +0.9 1
2004-04-10 Victoria Rosport L 0-237.8 889 968 35.85% 19.55% 44.60%-0.21 -25.9 0
2004-04-10 @ Rumelange W 2-037.8 968 889 44.60% 19.55% 35.85%+0.21 +25.9 3
2004-04-10 Wiltz 71 D 1-154.5 1126 860 72.69% 17.42% 9.88%+2.15 -5.6 1
2004-04-10 @ Union Luxembourg D 1-154.5 860 1126 9.88% 17.42% 72.69%-2.15 +5.6 1
2004-04-18 Avenir Beggen W 2-034.5 970 900 55.68% 19.25% 25.07%+0.81 +19.2 4
2004-04-18 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-234.5 900 970 25.07% 19.25% 55.68%-0.81 -19.2 1
2004-04-18 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-137.4 1341 1249 58.15% 19.12% 22.73%+0.96 +21.5 6
2004-04-18 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-437.4 1249 1341 22.73% 19.12% 58.15%-0.96 -21.5 3
2004-04-18 Grevenmacher W 2-140.8 1251 1151 59.01% 19.07% 21.93%+1.01 +8.5 3
2004-04-18 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-240.8 1151 1251 21.93% 19.07% 59.01%-1.01 -8.5 0
2004-04-18 Rumelange W 4-132.3 1121 863 72.14% 17.53% 10.32%+2.09 +10.3 4
2004-04-18 @ Union Luxembourg L 1-432.3 863 1121 10.32% 17.53% 72.14%-2.09 -10.3 0
2004-04-18 Spora Luxembourg W 3-037.8 895 960 37.72% 19.57% 42.71%-0.12 +43.4 4
2004-04-18 @ Mondercange L 0-337.8 960 895 42.71% 19.57% 37.72%+0.12 -43.4 1
2004-04-18 Wiltz 71 L 0-442.1 994 866 61.90% 18.86% 19.24%+1.21 -79.3 3
2004-04-18 @ Victoria Rosport W 4-042.1 866 994 19.24% 18.86% 61.90%-1.21 +79.3 4
2004-04-23 Mondercange W 2-035.2 989 938 53.42% 19.35% 27.24%+0.68 +20.6 7
2004-04-23 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-235.2 938 989 27.24% 19.35% 53.42%-0.68 -20.6 4
2004-04-24 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-147.9 1142 1227 34.99% 19.54% 45.47%-0.26 +15.8 3
2004-04-24 @ Grevenmacher L 1-247.9 1227 1142 45.47% 19.54% 34.99%+0.26 -15.8 3
2004-04-24 Jeunesse Esch W 3-254.4 1259 1362 32.59% 19.50% 47.91%-0.38 +15.6 6
2004-04-24 @ F91 Dudelange L 2-354.4 1362 1259 47.91% 19.50% 32.59%+0.38 -15.6 6
2004-04-24 Union Luxembourg W 3-257.1 915 1131 19.98% 18.92% 61.09%-1.15 +19.6 6
2004-04-24 @ Victoria Rosport L 2-357.1 1131 915 61.09% 18.92% 19.98%+1.15 -19.6 4
2004-04-24 Spora Luxembourg L 1-246.7 880 916 41.90% 19.57% 38.52%+0.08 -14.7 1
2004-04-24 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-146.7 916 880 38.52% 19.57% 41.90%-0.08 +14.7 4
2004-04-25 Rumelange D 2-259.0 945 853 58.15% 19.12% 22.73%+0.96 -2.2 5
2004-04-25 @ Wiltz 71 D 2-259.0 853 945 22.73% 19.12% 58.15%-0.96 +2.2 1
2004-04-30 F91 Dudelange L 1-341.5 1158 1275 30.84% 19.46% 49.70%-0.47 -19.8 3
2004-04-30 @ Grevenmacher W 3-141.5 1275 1158 49.70% 19.46% 30.84%+0.47 +19.8 9
2004-04-30 Mondercange D 1-153.9 931 917 48.75% 19.49% 31.77%+0.42 -1.4 5
2004-04-30 @ Spora Luxembourg D 1-153.9 917 931 31.77% 19.49% 48.75%-0.42 +1.4 5
2004-04-30 Swift Hesperange W 2-043.0 866 1009 27.58% 19.36% 53.06%-0.66 +36.1 4
2004-04-30 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-243.0 1009 866 53.06% 19.36% 27.58%+0.66 -36.1 7
2004-05-02 Union Luxembourg W 2-153.3 855 1111 16.57% 18.59% 64.85%-1.42 +21.9 4
2004-05-02 @ Rumelange L 1-253.3 1111 855 64.85% 18.59% 16.57%+1.42 -21.9 4
2004-05-02 Victoria Rosport D 0-050.3 943 934 48.03% 19.50% 32.47%+0.39 -1.4 6
2004-05-02 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.3 934 943 32.47% 19.50% 48.03%-0.39 +1.4 7
2004-05-03 Jeunesse Esch L 2-348.2 1212 1347 28.58% 19.40% 52.02%-0.60 -10.2 3
2004-05-03 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-248.2 1347 1212 52.02% 19.40% 28.58%+0.60 +10.2 9
2004-05-07 Avenir Beggen L 1-249.3 930 902 50.58% 19.44% 29.98%+0.52 -17.3 5
2004-05-07 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-149.3 902 930 29.98% 19.44% 50.58%-0.52 +17.3 7
2004-05-07 Victoria Rosport W 3-029.8 1089 936 64.26% 18.65% 17.10%+1.38 +19.7 7
2004-05-07 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-329.8 936 1089 17.10% 18.65% 64.26%-1.38 -19.7 7
2004-05-08 F91 Dudelange L 1-251.9 1357 1295 54.79% 19.29% 25.91%+0.75 -18.6 9
2004-05-08 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-151.9 1295 1357 25.91% 19.29% 54.79%-0.75 +18.6 12
2004-05-08 Grevenmacher L 1-348.6 1201 1138 54.91% 19.29% 25.81%+0.76 -32.3 3
2004-05-08 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-148.6 1138 1201 25.81% 19.29% 54.91%-0.76 +32.3 6
2004-05-08 Swift Hesperange W 1-042.0 919 973 39.26% 19.57% 41.16%-0.05 +15.4 8
2004-05-08 @ Mondercange L 0-142.0 973 919 41.16% 19.57% 39.26%+0.05 -15.4 7
2004-05-08 Wiltz 71 D 1-153.9 877 941 37.88% 19.57% 42.55%-0.11 +0.4 5
2004-05-08 @ Rumelange D 1-153.9 941 877 42.55% 19.57% 37.88%+0.11 -0.4 7
2004-05-16 Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-050.9 1313 1169 63.39% 18.73% 17.88%+1.31 -4.4 13
2004-05-16 @ F91 Dudelange D 0-050.9 1169 1313 17.88% 18.73% 63.39%-1.31 +4.4 4
2004-05-16 Jeunesse Esch D 2-259.4 1170 1338 24.82% 19.24% 55.94%-0.82 +1.9 7
2004-05-16 @ Grevenmacher D 2-259.4 1338 1170 55.94% 19.24% 24.82%+0.82 -1.9 10
2004-05-16 Mondercange D 2-258.8 919 934 44.86% 19.55% 35.59%+0.23 -0.5 8
2004-05-16 @ Avenir Beggen D 2-258.8 934 919 35.59% 19.55% 44.86%-0.23 +0.5 9
2004-05-16 Union Luxembourg W 3-255.7 941 1109 24.81% 19.24% 55.96%-0.82 +18.0 10
2004-05-16 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-355.7 1109 941 55.96% 19.24% 24.81%+0.82 -18.0 7
2004-05-16 Rumelange L 1-347.5 916 878 51.91% 19.40% 28.69%+0.59 -30.7 7
2004-05-16 @ Victoria Rosport W 3-147.5 878 916 28.69% 19.40% 51.91%-0.59 +30.7 8
2004-05-16 Spora Luxembourg L 1-249.9 958 913 52.74% 19.37% 27.88%+0.64 -18.0 7
2004-05-16 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-149.9 913 958 27.88% 19.37% 52.74%-0.64 +18.0 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-08-10 11.80% Spora Luxembourg 832 3 @ Mondercange 1062 1
2 2003-09-14 12.62% Etzella Ettelbruck 954 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 1171 1
3 2003-11-09 13.99% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1046 3 Jeunesse Esch 1337 0
4 2003-09-28 16.27% @ Spora Luxembourg 990 3 Grevenmacher 1250 1
5 2004-05-02 16.57% @ Rumelange 855 2 Union Luxembourg 1111 1
6 2003-11-02 16.92% Victoria Rosport 982 4 @ Grevenmacher 1138 1
7 2003-12-07 18.72% @ Avenir Beggen 924 1 Grevenmacher 1154 0
8 2004-04-18 19.24% Wiltz 71 866 4 @ Victoria Rosport 994 0
9 2004-04-24 19.98% @ Victoria Rosport 915 3 Union Luxembourg 1131 2
10 2004-03-21 21.98% Mondercange 911 3 @ Victoria Rosport 1010 1
11 2004-03-21 22.06% Wiltz 71 863 2 @ Spora Luxembourg 962 1
12 2003-09-17 22.08% Spora Luxembourg 969 4 @ Victoria Rosport 1068 2
13 2003-09-17 22.94% Wiltz 71 929 2 @ Avenir Beggen 1019 0
14 2003-11-23 23.04% @ Mondercange 931 2 Grevenmacher 1116 1
15 2003-09-01 23.29% Spora Luxembourg 906 6 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 993 3
16 2003-12-07 24.54% @ Rumelange 884 3 Swift Hesperange 1054 1
17 2003-08-24 24.61% @ Spora Luxembourg 873 3 Avenir Beggen 1043 1
18 2004-05-16 24.81% @ Wiltz 71 941 3 Union Luxembourg 1109 2
19 2003-09-14 25.06% Avenir Beggen 999 1 @ Union Luxembourg 1069 0
20 2004-05-08 25.81% Grevenmacher 1138 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1201 1
21 2004-05-08 25.91% F91 Dudelange 1295 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1357 1
22 2004-04-30 27.58% @ Avenir Beggen 866 2 Swift Hesperange 1009 0
23 2003-11-29 27.79% Avenir Beggen 905 1 @ Mondercange 951 0
24 2004-05-16 27.88% Spora Luxembourg 913 2 @ Swift Hesperange 958 1
25 2004-05-16 28.69% Rumelange 878 3 @ Victoria Rosport 916 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-18 79.27 Wiltz 71 4 866 19.24% @ Victoria Rosport 0 994 61.90% 18.86%
2 2003-11-09 66.32 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1046 13.99% Jeunesse Esch 0 1337 67.77% 18.24%
3 2003-11-30 57.48 @ Grevenmacher 8 1096 51.59% Spora Luxembourg 1 1060 29.00% 19.41%
4 2003-11-02 53.23 Victoria Rosport 4 982 16.92% @ Grevenmacher 1 1138 64.45% 18.63%
5 2003-10-26 50.14 @ Rumelange 3 910 30.07% Victoria Rosport 0 1033 50.48% 19.44%
6 2003-10-22 47.85 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1066 32.62% Grevenmacher 0 1169 47.88% 19.50%
7 2004-04-18 43.43 @ Mondercange 3 895 37.72% Spora Luxembourg 0 960 42.71% 19.57%
8 2003-08-24 42.32 @ Victoria Rosport 8 1031 50.65% Rumelange 2 1002 29.91% 19.44%
9 2003-08-10 41.03 Spora Luxembourg 3 832 11.80% @ Mondercange 1 1062 70.34% 17.86%
10 2003-09-14 40.46 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 954 12.62% @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1171 69.36% 18.01%
11 2003-11-09 39.61 Spora Luxembourg 5 1026 46.09% @ Rumelange 1 936 34.37% 19.53%
12 2003-10-26 39.39 Union Luxembourg 3 1114 42.55% @ Swift Hesperange 0 1049 37.88% 19.57%
13 2003-09-17 39.20 Wiltz 71 2 929 22.94% @ Avenir Beggen 0 1019 57.92% 19.13%
14 2003-11-04 38.29 Jeunesse Esch 4 1299 54.07% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1147 26.61% 19.32%
15 2003-09-01 38.26 Spora Luxembourg 6 906 23.29% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 993 57.55% 19.15%
16 2003-09-28 38.06 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 990 16.27% Grevenmacher 1 1250 65.17% 18.55%
17 2004-04-30 36.12 @ Avenir Beggen 2 866 27.58% Swift Hesperange 0 1009 53.06% 19.36%
18 2003-10-05 35.07 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1212 47.61% Grevenmacher 0 1206 32.88% 19.51%
19 2003-09-13 34.77 @ Grevenmacher 4 1175 57.00% Swift Hesperange 0 1093 23.81% 19.18%
20 2003-10-01 34.68 Etzella Ettelbruck 4 1024 40.47% @ Mondercange 1 975 39.95% 19.58%
21 2004-03-21 34.52 Mondercange 3 911 21.98% @ Victoria Rosport 1 1010 58.94% 19.07%
22 2003-11-30 33.61 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1099 57.95% Victoria Rosport 0 1008 22.92% 19.13%
23 2003-11-09 33.05 @ Mondercange 3 908 49.91% Wiltz 71 0 885 30.63% 19.46%
24 2003-12-07 33.01 @ Rumelange 3 884 24.54% Swift Hesperange 1 1054 56.23% 19.22%
25 2003-08-24 32.96 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 873 24.61% Avenir Beggen 1 1043 56.16% 19.23%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-10-22 63.1 @ Rumelange 3 908 26.73% Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1059 53.94% 19.33%
2 2004-05-16 59.4 @ Grevenmacher 2 1170 24.82% Jeunesse Esch 2 1338 55.94% 19.24%
3 2003-10-19 59.1 @ Grevenmacher 2 1171 60.55% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1057 20.49% 18.96%
4 2004-03-21 59.1 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1203 58.08% Grevenmacher 2 1112 22.79% 19.12%
5 2003-10-17 59.0 @ Avenir Beggen 2 998 58.12% Rumelange 2 906 22.76% 19.12%
6 2004-04-25 59.0 @ Wiltz 71 2 945 58.15% Rumelange 2 853 22.73% 19.12%
7 2003-10-05 58.8 @ Rumelange 2 906 42.23% Mondercange 2 940 38.20% 19.57%
8 2004-03-14 58.8 @ Mondercange 2 912 46.23% Rumelange 2 917 34.24% 19.53%
9 2004-05-16 58.8 @ Avenir Beggen 2 919 44.86% Mondercange 2 934 35.59% 19.55%
10 2004-04-24 57.1 @ Victoria Rosport 3 915 19.98% Union Luxembourg 2 1131 61.09% 18.92%
11 2004-05-16 55.7 @ Wiltz 71 3 941 24.81% Union Luxembourg 2 1109 55.96% 19.24%
12 2004-04-10 54.5 @ Union Luxembourg 1 1126 72.69% Wiltz 71 1 860 9.88% 17.42%
13 2003-10-01 54.4 @ Grevenmacher 1 1212 69.72% Avenir Beggen 1 990 12.32% 17.96%
14 2003-11-02 54.4 @ Spora Luxembourg 4 1013 40.38% Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1059 40.04% 19.58%
15 2003-11-30 54.4 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1280 55.72% F91 Dudelange 1 1210 25.03% 19.25%
16 2004-04-24 54.4 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1259 32.59% Jeunesse Esch 2 1362 47.91% 19.50%
17 2003-10-01 54.2 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1075 65.95% Rumelange 1 902 15.58% 18.47%
18 2003-08-24 54.1 @ F91 Dudelange 1 1122 62.36% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 989 18.81% 18.82%
19 2003-11-23 54.1 @ Rumelange 1 894 20.75% Union Luxembourg 1 1102 60.27% 18.98%
20 2003-08-31 54.0 @ Victoria Rosport 3 1073 30.72% Grevenmacher 2 1191 49.82% 19.46%
21 2003-10-05 54.0 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1059 54.96% Avenir Beggen 1 995 25.76% 19.28%
22 2003-10-22 54.0 @ Victoria Rosport 1 1034 51.97% Avenir Beggen 1 995 28.63% 19.40%
23 2003-10-26 54.0 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1058 30.25% F91 Dudelange 1 1179 50.30% 19.45%
24 2003-08-10 53.9 @ Wiltz 71 1 974 32.73% Union Luxembourg 1 1076 47.77% 19.51%
25 2003-09-21 53.9 @ Wiltz 71 1 968 43.26% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 995 37.18% 19.56%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-04 26.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1320 76.95% Swift Hesperange 0 977 6.69% 16.36%
2 2003-10-22 26.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1247 75.30% Wiltz 71 0 936 7.88% 16.82%
3 2004-03-21 26.5 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1230 71.49% Swift Hesperange 0 982 10.86% 17.66%
4 2003-10-26 26.6 Jeunesse Esch 4 1256 71.11% @ Mondercange 0 919 11.17% 17.73%
5 2003-10-31 26.7 @ Jeunesse Esch 8 1273 74.25% Avenir Beggen 0 981 8.67% 17.08%
6 2003-11-02 26.8 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1178 69.47% Rumelange 0 960 12.53% 18.00%
7 2004-04-04 26.8 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1108 70.30% Wiltz 71 0 878 11.83% 17.86%
8 2004-04-04 26.9 @ F91 Dudelange 8 1267 77.47% Avenir Beggen 1 912 6.33% 16.20%
9 2004-03-25 27.2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1201 72.95% Rumelange 0 931 9.68% 17.37%
10 2003-09-21 27.4 @ Grevenmacher 5 1223 67.68% Mondercange 0 1029 14.07% 18.25%
11 2004-03-27 27.4 F91 Dudelange 4 1246 68.52% @ Mondercange 0 945 13.34% 18.14%
12 2003-10-01 28.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 1180 64.09% Spora Luxembourg 0 1028 17.25% 18.66%
13 2003-10-05 29.2 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1131 66.34% Wiltz 71 0 953 15.24% 18.42%
14 2004-04-04 29.6 Grevenmacher 4 1134 60.95% @ Rumelange 0 919 20.12% 18.93%
15 2004-05-07 29.8 @ Union Luxembourg 3 1089 64.26% Victoria Rosport 0 936 17.10% 18.65%
16 2003-10-22 29.9 @ F91 Dudelange 2 1170 71.16% Mondercange 0 928 11.12% 17.72%
17 2004-03-14 30.2 Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1182 63.04% @ Avenir Beggen 0 946 18.20% 18.76%
18 2003-11-30 30.5 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1099 57.95% Victoria Rosport 0 1008 22.92% 19.13%
19 2003-12-05 30.8 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 8 1141 68.84% Mondercange 2 932 13.07% 18.09%
20 2003-09-13 30.9 @ Grevenmacher 4 1175 57.00% Swift Hesperange 0 1093 23.81% 19.18%
21 2003-12-07 30.9 Jeunesse Esch 2 1278 67.87% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 985 13.90% 18.23%
22 2003-08-31 31.3 @ Swift Hesperange 3 1069 59.31% Wiltz 71 0 966 21.64% 19.05%
23 2003-11-04 32.0 Jeunesse Esch 4 1299 54.07% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1147 26.61% 19.32%
24 2004-04-10 32.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1328 65.20% Grevenmacher 0 1164 16.25% 18.55%
25 2004-04-18 32.3 @ Union Luxembourg 4 1121 72.14% Rumelange 1 863 10.32% 17.53%