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2004-05 Luxembourg National Division Season

168 games

Final

Champion

F91 Dudelange

56 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Victoria Rosport

11.38 points above expected

41 points · 29.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Union Luxembourg

10.59 points below expected

14 points · 24.59 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 22 18 2 2 56 56 13 +43 48.39 +7.61
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 17 1 4 52 57 23 +34 43.68 +8.32
3 Jeunesse Esch 22 12 5 5 41 50 28 +22 44.95 -3.95
4 Victoria Rosport 22 12 5 5 41 43 33 +10 29.62 +11.38
5 Grevenmacher 22 9 5 8 32 40 27 +13 37.96 -5.96
6 Swift Hesperange 22 8 5 9 29 28 34 -6 27.87 +1.13
7 Alliance 01 22 8 4 10 28 31 47 -16 28.65 -0.65
8 CS Petange 22 8 3 11 27 38 34 +4 22.45 +4.55
9 Wiltz 71 22 8 1 13 25 25 37 -12 22.35 +2.65
10 Spora Luxembourg 22 5 3 14 18 24 54 -30 22.06 -4.06
11 Union Luxembourg 22 3 5 14 14 14 44 -30 24.59 -10.59
12 Avenir Beggen 22 2 5 15 11 20 52 -32 19.68 -8.68
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 6 4 2 0 14 18 2 +16 67.88 -53.88
2 Avenir Beggen 6 4 1 1 13 17 8 +9 17.75 -4.75
3 Alliance 01 6 4 1 1 13 14 7 +7 38.12 -25.12
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 3 3 0 12 11 6 +5 60.50 -48.50
5 Union Luxembourg 6 3 2 1 11 12 9 +3 22.03 -11.03
6 Swift Hesperange 6 3 1 2 10 11 12 -1 39.45 -29.45
7 Grevenmacher 6 2 2 2 8 17 13 +4 46.96 -38.96
8 CS Petange 6 2 2 2 8 12 11 +1 37.38 -29.38
9 Jeunesse Esch 6 1 1 4 4 8 17 -9 49.22 -45.22
10 Victoria Rosport 6 1 0 5 3 2 14 -12 46.13 -43.13
11 Spora Luxembourg 6 0 2 4 2 5 14 -9 26.06 -24.06
12 Wiltz 71 6 0 1 5 1 5 19 -14 34.94 -33.94

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Victoria Rosport 41 29.62 +11.38
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 52 43.68 +8.32
3 F91 Dudelange 56 48.39 +7.61
4 CS Petange 27 22.45 +4.55
5 Wiltz 71 25 22.35 +2.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Union Luxembourg 14 24.59 -10.59
2 Avenir Beggen 11 19.68 -8.68
3 Grevenmacher 32 37.96 -5.96
4 Spora Luxembourg 18 22.06 -4.06
5 Jeunesse Esch 41 44.95 -3.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 CS Petange 5 Oct 17 – Nov 11 1 in 1,931
2 F91 Dudelange 8 Aug 8 – Oct 3 1 in 53
3 Victoria Rosport 4 Dec 5 – Mar 20 1 in 39
4 Wiltz 71 3 Nov 7 – Nov 28 1 in 24
5 Grevenmacher 4 Sep 19 – Oct 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spora Luxembourg 9 Oct 3 – Dec 12 1 in 273
2 Wiltz 71 7 Sep 12 – Oct 31 1 in 98
3 Grevenmacher 4 Nov 7 – Nov 28 1 in 65
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 Mar 20 – Apr 10 1 in 61
5 F91 Dudelange 2 Dec 4 – Dec 12 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 CS Petange 6 Oct 3 – Nov 11 1 in 220
2 Victoria Rosport 9 Nov 21 – Apr 24 1 in 117
3 Alliance 01 7 Aug 29 – Oct 23 1 in 73
4 Swift Hesperange 5 Aug 7 – Sep 12 1 in 19
5 F91 Dudelange 15 Aug 8 – Nov 27 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Union Luxembourg 9 Sep 12 – Nov 11 1 in 60
2 Spora Luxembourg 12 Sep 26 – Mar 12 1 in 50
3 Grevenmacher 6 Oct 23 – Nov 28 1 in 37
4 F91 Dudelange 3 Nov 27 – Dec 12 1 in 27
5 Avenir Beggen 9 Nov 28 – Apr 24 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
F91 Dudelange 1365 70 +32 11 10.5 +0.5
Etzella Ettelbruck 1225 64 +19 9 6.9 +2.1
Jeunesse Esch 1142 45 -21 4 7.0 -3.0
Victoria Rosport 1036 44 -30 3 3.7 -0.7
Alliance 01 1009 41 +30 10 7.8 +2.2
Grevenmacher 1141 40 +7 8 10.6 -2.6
Swift Hesperange 961 39 -9 10 8.1 +1.9
CS Petange 972 35 -13 5 8.7 -3.7
Wiltz 71 885 26 -61 1 4.8 -3.8
Union Luxembourg 939 25 +24 8 5.0 +3.0
Avenir Beggen 931 24 +67 10 5.9 +4.1
Spora Luxembourg 841 20 -46 2 5.4 -3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team A0 AB CP EE FD GRE JE SL SH UL VR W7
Alliance 01 —
1-1-0
3.66
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
1.39
0-0-2
1.01
0-1-1
1.93
0-1-1
1.35
1-0-1
3.46
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
3.05
0-0-2
3.11
1-0-1
3.16
Avenir Beggen
0-1-1
1.96
 —
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
1.17
0-1-1
0.96
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.05
1-1-0
2.37
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
2.51
CS Petange
0-0-2
2.43
2-0-0
3.34
 —
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
0.79
1-1-0
1.26
1-0-1
0.93
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.18
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.55
Etzella Ettelbruck
1-0-1
4.25
2-0-0
4.48
2-0-0
4.68
 —
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
4.65
2-0-0
4.38
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
4.24
2-0-0
4.58
F91 Dudelange
2-0-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.91
1-0-1
3.35
 —
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
4.75
1-0-1
4.65
1-1-0
4.79
1-1-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.77
Grevenmacher
1-1-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.48
0-1-1
4.39
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-2
1.99
 —
1-1-0
2.18
1-1-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
4.14
0-0-2
3.79
1-1-0
3.97
Jeunesse Esch
1-1-0
4.29
1-1-0
4.71
1-0-1
4.75
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
3.43
 —
2-0-0
4.67
1-1-0
4.09
2-0-0
4.37
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
4.37
Spora Luxembourg
1-0-1
2.15
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
1.02
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
1.44
0-0-2
1.01
 —
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
2.10
1-0-1
2.86
Swift Hesperange
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
3.57
0-1-1
3.44
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
1.02
0-0-2
2.09
0-1-1
1.54
2-0-0
3.29
 —
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.91
Union Luxembourg
0-0-2
2.56
0-1-1
3.25
0-1-1
2.92
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
0.90
1-0-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.28
2-0-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.62
 —
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
3.07
Victoria Rosport
2-0-0
2.50
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
1.40
0-1-1
1.10
2-0-0
1.83
0-0-2
1.60
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
3.24
1-1-0
3.61
 —
2-0-0
3.46
Wiltz 71
1-0-1
2.45
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
0.91
0-1-1
1.66
0-0-2
1.27
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.54
0-0-2
2.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +9.5
Allowed 0.80 -10.4
Differential 0.93 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.98%6.85%5.36%5.95%2.38%2.08%25.60%
16.85%8.93%4.46%4.46%1.19%2.38%28.27%
25.36%4.46%5.36%2.08%1.49%0.60%19.35%
35.95%4.46%2.08%1.19%1.49%—15.18%
42.38%1.19%1.49%1.49%——6.55%
5+2.08%2.38%0.60%———5.06%
Total25.60%28.27%19.35%15.18%6.55%5.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.66 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.37
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 168

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%28.57%
17.14%7.14%—3.57%3.57%—21.43%
27.14%—10.71%——3.57%21.43%
33.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
43.57%—7.14%———10.71%
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%32.14%10.71%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.93 -0.32
SD 1.37 1.72 2.54
CV 0.85 0.89 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%32.14%
17.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%32.14%
2——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
33.57%7.14%—3.57%3.57%—17.86%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total10.71%32.14%14.29%25.00%10.71%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.14 -0.82
SD 1.31 1.46 2.14
CV 0.99 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
13.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%—32.14%
23.57%——7.14%——10.71%
37.14%3.57%—7.14%——17.86%
410.71%3.57%—3.57%——17.86%
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%14.29%32.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.61 +0.18
SD 1.45 1.31 2.18
CV 0.81 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
110.71%7.14%——3.57%—21.43%
27.14%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—17.86%
310.71%14.29%————25.00%
4—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total39.29%39.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.04 +1.39
SD 1.53 1.20 1.97
CV 0.63 1.16 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
114.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
214.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
310.71%3.57%————14.29%
47.14%—3.57%———10.71%
5+7.14%10.71%————17.86%
Total57.14%32.14%10.71%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 0.54 +2.11
SD 1.89 0.69 2.01
CV 0.72 1.29 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
1—10.71%14.29%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
23.57%3.57%10.71%7.14%——25.00%
314.29%3.57%————17.86%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total28.57%25.00%28.57%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 1.43 +0.61
SD 1.45 1.26 2.22
CV 0.71 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%—21.43%
17.14%10.71%—3.57%—7.14%28.57%
2——7.14%———7.14%
310.71%10.71%——3.57%—25.00%
47.14%—3.57%———10.71%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total32.14%28.57%14.29%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.61 +0.46
SD 1.84 1.77 2.99
CV 0.89 1.10 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%10.71%10.71%3.57%42.86%
1—17.86%3.57%——3.57%25.00%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%7.14%3.57%25.00%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total7.14%32.14%17.86%14.29%17.86%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.43 -1.39
SD 1.20 1.71 2.30
CV 1.16 0.70 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%10.71%——25.00%
17.14%10.71%7.14%3.57%—3.57%32.14%
214.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
3——7.14%3.57%3.57%—14.29%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%21.43%21.43%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.64 -0.25
SD 1.13 1.37 1.69
CV 0.81 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%17.86%3.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%46.43%
13.57%7.14%—10.71%—3.57%25.00%
23.57%7.14%10.71%———21.43%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%32.14%21.43%21.43%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.89 -0.96
SD 1.09 1.40 1.84
CV 1.17 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%—3.57%21.43%
110.71%10.71%3.57%7.14%—3.57%35.71%
23.57%10.71%3.57%—3.57%—21.43%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
Total21.43%35.71%17.86%14.29%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.68 -0.07
SD 1.42 1.54 2.31
CV 0.89 0.92 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%14.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%39.29%
110.71%—10.71%7.14%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%—3.57%—17.86%
33.57%—3.57%—7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%32.14%10.71%17.86%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.00 -0.93
SD 1.09 1.49 1.88
CV 1.01 0.75 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
F91 Dudelange 1365 56 48.39 +7.61 91.0% 31 38 45 48 52 57 61
Etzella Ettelbruck 1225 52 43.68 +8.32 97.0% 29 33 40 44 48 52 58
Jeunesse Esch 1142 41 44.95 -3.95 25.0% 29 36 41 45 49 53 61
Grevenmacher 1141 32 37.96 -5.96 16.0% 21 29 34 37 42 47 53
Victoria Rosport 1036 41 29.62 +11.38 98.0% 15 18 26 30 34 40 49
Alliance 01 1009 28 28.65 -0.65 47.0% 15 20 25 29 33 37 41
CS Petange 972 27 22.45 +4.55 81.0% 10 14 18 22 26 32 36
Swift Hesperange 961 29 27.87 +1.13 63.0% 11 18 24 28 32 35 42
Union Luxembourg 939 14 24.59 -10.59 2.0% 11 15 20 24 28 33 44
Avenir Beggen 931 11 19.68 -8.68 6.0% 8 11 15 19 24 29 30
Wiltz 71 885 25 22.35 +2.65 69.0% 12 14 19 22 26 31 38
Spora Luxembourg 841 18 22.06 -4.06 33.0% 10 13 17 22 26 32 40

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-5.36%
No Edge
38.10%18.45%43.45%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -18.63 Elo pts.
165 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.15 goals
Neutral
-2-0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
60%
F91 Dudelange, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Comfortable
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.51 * Some Luck: 4.51 to 6.77 * Lucky: 6.77 to 9.02 * Wild Swing: 9.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.79 * Off: 1.79 to 2.39 * Way Off: 2.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.71 points
Some Luck
05.6414
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.503
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.00%
Victoria Rosport
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.00%
Union Luxembourg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 143.40
2.20
Wide Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
77%
Clear Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
93%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Few
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Notable Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.54
Some Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.043
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
F91 Dudelange60.00%22.00%13.00%4.00%—1.00%——————
Etzella Ettelbruck19.00%26.00%42.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%——————
Jeunesse Esch18.00%40.00%27.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%——————
Victoria Rosport—1.00%1.00%14.00%22.00%17.00%16.00%10.00%5.00%3.00%8.00%3.00%
Grevenmacher3.00%10.00%16.00%45.00%19.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%——
Swift Hesperange——1.00%6.00%16.00%20.00%16.00%17.00%7.00%9.00%6.00%2.00%
Alliance 01———7.00%20.00%24.00%13.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%
CS Petange———1.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%18.00%19.00%13.00%13.00%17.00%
Wiltz 71———1.00%4.00%7.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%18.00%15.00%15.00%
Spora Luxembourg———3.00%1.00%7.00%14.00%6.00%14.00%16.00%20.00%19.00%
Union Luxembourg—1.00%—1.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%16.00%18.00%16.00%14.00%7.00%
Avenir Beggen—————3.00%11.00%5.00%10.00%16.00%21.00%34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Victoria Rosport 98.00% 2.00%
Alliance 01 94.00% 6.00%
Swift Hesperange 94.00% 6.00%
Union Luxembourg 82.00% 18.00%
Wiltz 71 76.00% 24.00%
CS Petange 73.00% 27.00%
Spora Luxembourg 58.00% 42.00%
Avenir Beggen 25.00% 75.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Victoria Rosport 100% —
Swift Hesperange 99.99% 0.01%
Alliance 01 99.96% 0.04%
CS Petange 99.93% 0.07%
Wiltz 71 99.54% 0.46%
Spora Luxembourg 74.40% 25.60%
Union Luxembourg 22.30% 77.70%
Avenir Beggen 3.88% 96.12%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-08-07 Grevenmacher L 0-331.3 976 1118 22.67% 18.80% 58.53%-0.97 -15.1 0
2004-08-07 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-031.3 1118 976 58.53% 18.80% 22.67%+0.97 +15.1 3
2004-08-07 Swift Hesperange L 0-239.3 994 984 41.65% 19.57% 38.78%-0.05 -17.4 0
2004-08-07 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-039.3 984 994 38.78% 19.57% 41.65%+0.05 +17.4 3
2004-08-08 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-533.9 1072 1118 33.84% 19.49% 46.67%-0.39 -34.4 0
2004-08-08 @ Union Luxembourg W 5-033.9 1118 1072 46.67% 19.49% 33.84%+0.39 +34.4 3
2004-08-08 F91 Dudelange L 0-337.3 1201 1194 41.27% 19.57% 39.15%-0.07 -25.1 0
2004-08-08 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-037.3 1194 1201 39.15% 19.57% 41.27%+0.07 +25.1 3
2004-08-08 CS Petange W 3-245.4 1024 843 62.67% 18.33% 19.00%+0.98 +4.2 3
2004-08-08 @ Alliance 01 L 2-345.4 843 1024 19.00% 18.33% 62.67%-0.98 -4.2 0
2004-08-12 Alliance 01 W 3-039.7 956 1028 30.49% 19.37% 50.14%-0.55 +29.6 3
2004-08-12 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-339.7 1028 956 50.14% 19.37% 30.49%+0.55 -29.6 3
2004-08-12 Avenir Beggen W 5-029.1 1152 970 62.74% 18.32% 18.94%+0.99 +20.6 6
2004-08-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-529.1 970 1152 18.94% 18.32% 62.74%-0.99 -20.6 0
2004-08-12 Grevenmacher W 2-143.3 1219 1133 51.94% 19.28% 28.77%+0.41 +6.4 6
2004-08-12 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-243.3 1133 1219 28.77% 19.28% 51.94%-0.41 -6.4 3
2004-08-12 Jeunesse Esch L 1-334.0 839 1176 9.11% 15.68% 75.21%-2.15 -3.7 0
2004-08-12 @ CS Petange W 3-134.0 1176 839 75.21% 15.68% 9.11%+2.15 +3.7 3
2004-08-12 Union Luxembourg D 2-259.9 1002 1037 35.23% 19.52% 45.24%-0.33 +0.4 4
2004-08-12 @ Swift Hesperange D 2-259.9 1037 1002 45.24% 19.52% 35.23%+0.33 -0.4 1
2004-08-12 Wiltz 71 W 2-147.4 961 977 37.93% 19.56% 42.50%-0.21 +8.9 3
2004-08-12 @ Spora Luxembourg L 1-247.4 977 961 42.50% 19.56% 37.93%+0.21 -8.9 0
2004-08-17 Victoria Rosport L 0-140.1 950 986 35.16% 19.52% 45.32%-0.33 -8.1 0
2004-08-17 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-040.1 986 950 45.32% 19.52% 35.16%+0.33 +8.1 6
2004-08-22 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-435.7 999 1173 19.63% 18.42% 61.95%-1.17 -11.1 3
2004-08-22 @ Alliance 01 W 4-135.7 1173 999 61.95% 18.42% 19.63%+1.17 +11.2 9
2004-08-22 Union Luxembourg W 1-044.4 968 1037 30.89% 19.39% 49.72%-0.53 +10.8 3
2004-08-22 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-144.4 1037 968 49.72% 19.39% 30.89%+0.53 -10.7 1
2004-08-22 Spora Luxembourg W 7-028.1 1225 970 69.36% 17.20% 13.45%+1.44 +20.3 9
2004-08-22 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-728.1 970 1225 13.45% 17.20% 69.36%-1.44 -20.3 3
2004-08-22 CS Petange D 0-051.2 1126 835 72.07% 16.56% 11.37%+1.65 -3.5 4
2004-08-22 @ Grevenmacher D 0-051.2 835 1126 11.37% 16.56% 72.07%-1.65 +3.5 1
2004-08-22 Victoria Rosport W 3-029.9 1180 994 63.13% 18.27% 18.60%+1.01 +12.6 6
2004-08-22 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-329.9 994 1180 18.60% 18.27% 63.13%-1.01 -12.6 6
2004-08-24 Swift Hesperange L 3-452.8 942 1002 31.97% 19.43% 48.59%-0.48 -6.5 0
2004-08-24 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-352.8 1002 942 48.59% 19.43% 31.97%+0.48 +6.5 7
2004-08-28 F91 Dudelange L 0-227.2 839 1246 6.49% 14.24% 79.27%-2.58 -3.0 1
2004-08-28 @ CS Petange W 2-027.2 1246 839 79.27% 14.24% 6.49%+2.58 +3.0 12
2004-08-29 Alliance 01 D 1-154.3 1008 987 43.19% 19.56% 37.25%+0.01 -0.3 8
2004-08-29 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.3 987 1008 37.25% 19.56% 43.19%-0.01 +0.3 4
2004-08-29 Avenir Beggen W 3-250.3 979 935 46.33% 19.50% 34.17%+0.15 +7.0 6
2004-08-29 @ Wiltz 71 L 2-350.3 935 979 34.17% 19.50% 46.33%-0.15 -7.0 0
2004-08-29 Grevenmacher W 2-152.0 981 1123 22.70% 18.80% 58.49%-0.97 +11.7 9
2004-08-29 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-252.0 1123 981 58.49% 18.80% 22.70%+0.97 -11.7 4
2004-08-29 Jeunesse Esch W 3-145.1 1184 1192 39.00% 19.57% 41.43%-0.16 +15.0 12
2004-08-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-345.1 1192 1184 41.43% 19.57% 39.00%+0.16 -15.0 6
2004-08-29 Union Luxembourg L 1-243.5 949 1026 29.91% 19.34% 50.75%-0.58 -6.6 3
2004-08-29 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-143.5 1026 949 50.75% 19.34% 29.91%+0.58 +6.6 4
2004-09-12 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-138.2 1111 1199 28.58% 19.27% 52.15%-0.64 -6.8 4
2004-09-12 @ Grevenmacher W 1-038.2 1199 1111 52.15% 19.27% 28.58%+0.64 +6.8 15
2004-09-12 Union Luxembourg W 1-045.7 928 1033 26.62% 19.15% 54.23%-0.75 +11.6 3
2004-09-12 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-145.7 1033 928 54.23% 19.15% 26.62%+0.75 -11.6 4
2004-09-12 Spora Luxembourg L 1-242.4 836 943 26.37% 19.13% 54.50%-0.76 -5.9 1
2004-09-12 @ CS Petange W 2-142.4 943 836 54.50% 19.13% 26.37%+0.76 +5.9 6
2004-09-12 Swift Hesperange D 0-050.7 1177 1008 61.45% 18.48% 20.07%+0.91 -2.3 7
2004-09-12 @ Jeunesse Esch D 0-050.7 1008 1177 20.07% 18.48% 61.45%-0.91 +2.3 9
2004-09-12 Victoria Rosport W 4-240.3 1248 993 69.35% 17.20% 13.46%+1.43 +4.9 15
2004-09-12 @ F91 Dudelange L 2-440.3 993 1248 13.46% 17.20% 69.35%-1.43 -4.9 9
2004-09-12 Wiltz 71 W 1-041.6 988 986 40.51% 19.58% 39.91%-0.10 +8.9 7
2004-09-12 @ Alliance 01 L 0-141.6 986 988 39.91% 19.58% 40.51%+0.10 -8.9 6
2004-09-19 Alliance 01 L 0-142.7 1021 997 43.68% 19.55% 36.77%+0.03 -9.6 4
2004-09-19 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-042.7 997 1021 36.77% 19.55% 43.68%-0.03 +9.6 10
2004-09-19 F91 Dudelange L 0-140.0 1206 1253 33.59% 19.48% 46.93%-0.40 -7.8 15
2004-09-19 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-040.0 1253 1206 46.93% 19.48% 33.59%+0.40 +7.8 18
2004-09-19 Grevenmacher L 1-536.5 1010 1104 27.89% 19.23% 52.88%-0.68 -19.7 9
2004-09-19 @ Swift Hesperange W 5-136.5 1104 1010 52.88% 19.23% 27.89%+0.68 +19.7 7
2004-09-19 Jeunesse Esch L 1-337.3 977 1175 17.58% 18.10% 64.32%-1.31 -7.1 6
2004-09-19 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-137.3 1175 977 64.32% 18.10% 17.58%+1.31 +7.1 10
2004-09-19 CS Petange W 1-035.6 988 830 60.33% 18.61% 21.05%+0.85 +5.1 12
2004-09-19 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-135.6 830 988 21.05% 18.61% 60.33%-0.85 -5.1 1
2004-09-21 Avenir Beggen W 3-036.4 949 940 41.49% 19.57% 38.94%-0.06 +24.0 9
2004-09-21 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-336.4 940 949 38.94% 19.57% 41.49%+0.06 -24.0 3
2004-09-25 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-431.0 825 1198 7.65% 14.95% 77.40%-2.37 -4.3 1
2004-09-25 @ CS Petange W 4-131.0 1198 825 77.40% 14.95% 7.65%+2.37 +4.3 18
2004-09-26 Avenir Beggen D 2-260.0 1006 916 52.50% 19.25% 28.25%+0.44 -0.9 11
2004-09-26 @ Alliance 01 D 2-260.0 916 1006 28.25% 19.25% 52.50%-0.44 +0.9 4
2004-09-26 Union Luxembourg W 3-138.2 1182 1011 61.59% 18.47% 19.94%+0.92 +8.0 13
2004-09-26 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-338.2 1011 1182 19.94% 18.47% 61.59%-0.92 -8.0 4
2004-09-26 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.3 993 972 43.17% 19.56% 37.28%+0.01 -0.3 13
2004-09-26 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-154.3 972 993 37.28% 19.56% 43.17%-0.01 +0.3 10
2004-09-26 Swift Hesperange W 2-137.7 1261 991 70.52% 16.94% 12.54%+1.52 +2.9 21
2004-09-26 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-237.7 991 1261 12.54% 16.94% 70.52%-1.52 -3.0 9
2004-09-26 Wiltz 71 W 3-030.9 1124 970 59.89% 18.66% 21.44%+0.82 +14.3 10
2004-09-26 @ Grevenmacher L 0-330.9 970 1124 21.44% 18.66% 59.89%-0.82 -14.3 6
2004-10-02 Jeunesse Esch L 0-426.7 917 1190 12.37% 16.89% 70.75%-1.77 -11.0 4
2004-10-02 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-026.7 1190 917 70.75% 16.89% 12.37%+1.77 +11.0 16
2004-10-03 Alliance 01 L 2-447.6 973 1005 35.64% 19.53% 44.83%-0.31 -11.9 10
2004-10-03 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-247.6 1005 973 44.83% 19.53% 35.64%+0.31 +11.9 14
2004-10-03 F91 Dudelange L 0-229.0 955 1264 10.44% 16.23% 73.33%-1.98 -4.9 6
2004-10-03 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-029.0 1264 955 73.33% 16.23% 10.44%+1.98 +4.9 24
2004-10-03 Grevenmacher L 0-331.5 1003 1138 23.38% 18.87% 57.75%-0.93 -15.5 4
2004-10-03 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-031.5 1138 1003 57.75% 18.87% 23.38%+0.93 +15.5 13
2004-10-03 CS Petange D 3-364.7 988 820 61.29% 18.50% 20.21%+0.90 -1.3 10
2004-10-03 @ Swift Hesperange D 3-364.7 820 988 20.21% 18.50% 61.29%-0.90 +1.3 2
2004-10-03 Victoria Rosport W 3-137.0 1202 993 65.35% 17.94% 16.71%+1.15 +6.8 21
2004-10-03 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-337.0 993 1202 16.71% 17.94% 65.35%-1.15 -6.8 13
2004-10-17 Avenir Beggen W 2-138.1 1154 906 68.75% 17.32% 13.93%+1.39 +3.3 16
2004-10-17 @ Grevenmacher L 1-238.1 906 1154 13.93% 17.32% 68.75%-1.39 -3.3 4
2004-10-17 Union Luxembourg D 1-155.2 1269 988 71.33% 16.75% 11.92%+1.59 -3.1 25
2004-10-17 @ F91 Dudelange D 1-155.2 988 1269 11.92% 16.75% 71.33%-1.59 +3.1 5
2004-10-17 Wiltz 71 W 4-040.7 822 950 23.99% 18.93% 57.08%-0.89 +43.5 5
2004-10-17 @ CS Petange L 0-440.7 950 822 57.08% 18.93% 23.99%+0.89 -43.5 6
2004-10-18 Alliance 01 D 2-260.3 1201 1017 62.92% 18.30% 18.78%+1.00 -1.7 17
2004-10-18 @ Jeunesse Esch D 2-260.3 1017 1201 18.78% 18.30% 62.92%-1.00 +1.7 15
2004-10-19 Swift Hesperange L 1-246.7 986 986 40.17% 19.58% 40.25%-0.11 -8.5 13
2004-10-19 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-146.7 986 986 40.25% 19.58% 40.17%+0.11 +8.5 13
2004-10-20 Spora Luxembourg W 3-028.2 1209 961 68.73% 17.33% 13.94%+1.39 +9.5 24
2004-10-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-328.2 961 1209 13.94% 17.33% 68.73%-1.39 -9.5 10
2004-10-23 Grevenmacher D 1-154.5 1019 1157 23.04% 18.84% 58.12%-0.95 +1.8 16
2004-10-23 @ Alliance 01 D 1-154.5 1157 1019 58.12% 18.84% 23.04%+0.95 -1.8 17
2004-10-24 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-133.8 995 1218 15.64% 17.72% 66.64%-1.47 -3.9 13
2004-10-24 @ Swift Hesperange W 1-033.8 1218 995 66.64% 17.72% 15.64%+1.47 +3.9 27
2004-10-24 F91 Dudelange L 0-130.7 902 1266 8.02% 15.14% 76.84%-2.32 -2.0 4
2004-10-24 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-030.7 1266 902 76.84% 15.14% 8.02%+2.32 +2.0 28
2004-10-24 Jeunesse Esch L 0-427.3 951 1199 13.95% 17.33% 68.73%-1.61 -12.4 10
2004-10-24 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-027.3 1199 951 68.73% 17.33% 13.95%+1.61 +12.4 20
2004-10-24 CS Petange L 0-440.6 991 865 56.75% 18.96% 24.29%+0.65 -43.3 5
2004-10-24 @ Union Luxembourg W 4-040.6 865 991 24.29% 18.96% 56.75%-0.65 +43.3 8
2004-10-24 Victoria Rosport L 1-243.8 907 978 30.64% 19.38% 49.98%-0.54 -6.8 6
2004-10-24 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-143.8 978 907 49.98% 19.38% 30.64%+0.54 +6.8 16
2004-10-29 Alliance 01 W 3-028.3 1268 1021 68.66% 17.34% 14.00%+1.38 +9.6 31
2004-10-29 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-328.3 1021 1268 14.00% 17.34% 68.66%-1.38 -9.6 16
2004-10-31 Avenir Beggen W 1-041.3 908 900 41.38% 19.57% 39.05%-0.06 +8.8 11
2004-10-31 @ CS Petange L 0-141.3 900 908 39.05% 19.57% 41.38%+0.06 -8.8 4
2004-10-31 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.5 1155 1212 32.47% 19.45% 48.08%-0.45 +0.8 18
2004-10-31 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.5 1212 1155 48.08% 19.45% 32.47%+0.45 -0.7 21
2004-10-31 Union Luxembourg W 5-138.7 984 948 45.40% 19.52% 35.08%+0.11 +24.0 19
2004-10-31 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-538.7 948 984 35.08% 19.52% 45.40%-0.11 -24.0 5
2004-10-31 Spora Luxembourg W 2-036.7 991 939 47.50% 19.47% 33.04%+0.20 +14.4 16
2004-10-31 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-236.7 939 991 33.04% 19.47% 47.50%-0.20 -14.4 10
2004-10-31 Wiltz 71 W 2-028.7 1222 900 74.23% 15.97% 9.79%+1.84 +4.6 30
2004-10-31 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-228.7 900 1222 9.79% 15.97% 74.23%-1.84 -4.6 6
2004-11-07 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-529.8 891 1227 9.19% 15.71% 75.09%-2.14 -6.8 4
2004-11-07 @ Avenir Beggen W 5-129.8 1227 891 75.09% 15.71% 9.19%+2.14 +6.8 33
2004-11-07 F91 Dudelange L 1-535.7 1156 1277 24.77% 19.00% 56.22%-0.85 -17.8 18
2004-11-07 @ Grevenmacher W 5-135.7 1277 1156 56.22% 19.00% 24.77%+0.85 +17.8 34
2004-11-07 Spora Luxembourg W 2-040.1 895 924 36.13% 19.54% 44.33%-0.29 +18.4 9
2004-11-07 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-240.1 924 895 44.33% 19.54% 36.13%+0.29 -18.4 10
2004-11-07 Swift Hesperange L 0-235.5 924 1005 29.31% 19.31% 51.37%-0.61 -13.0 5
2004-11-07 @ Union Luxembourg W 2-035.5 1005 924 51.37% 19.31% 29.31%+0.61 +13.0 19
2004-11-07 CS Petange L 0-345.5 1211 917 72.27% 16.51% 11.22%+1.67 -41.5 21
2004-11-07 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-045.5 917 1211 11.22% 16.51% 72.27%-1.67 +41.6 14
2004-11-07 Victoria Rosport L 1-344.7 1011 1008 40.60% 19.57% 39.82%-0.10 -14.8 16
2004-11-07 @ Alliance 01 W 3-144.7 1008 1011 39.82% 19.57% 40.60%+0.10 +14.8 22
2004-11-11 Alliance 01 L 2-456.7 1234 996 67.84% 17.50% 14.66%+1.32 -20.9 33
2004-11-11 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-256.7 996 1234 14.66% 17.50% 67.84%-1.32 +20.9 19
2004-11-11 Avenir Beggen L 1-349.5 1018 885 57.64% 18.88% 23.48%+0.70 -20.0 19
2004-11-11 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-149.5 885 1018 23.48% 18.88% 57.64%-0.70 +20.0 7
2004-11-11 F91 Dudelange L 0-424.4 906 1295 7.08% 14.62% 78.30%-2.47 -6.2 10
2004-11-11 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-024.4 1295 906 78.30% 14.62% 7.08%+2.47 +6.2 37
2004-11-11 Grevenmacher W 3-150.9 959 1138 19.14% 18.35% 62.51%-1.20 +21.6 17
2004-11-11 @ CS Petange L 1-350.9 1138 959 62.51% 18.35% 19.14%+1.20 -21.6 18
2004-11-11 Jeunesse Esch L 1-633.5 1023 1169 22.23% 18.75% 59.02%-1.00 -19.8 22
2004-11-11 @ Victoria Rosport W 6-133.5 1169 1023 59.02% 18.75% 22.23%+1.00 +19.8 24
2004-11-11 Wiltz 71 L 0-141.5 911 914 39.77% 19.57% 40.66%-0.13 -8.9 5
2004-11-11 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-041.5 914 911 40.66% 19.57% 39.77%+0.13 +8.9 12
2004-11-21 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-260.1 1189 1213 36.88% 19.55% 43.56%-0.26 +0.2 25
2004-11-21 @ Jeunesse Esch D 2-260.1 1213 1189 43.56% 19.55% 36.88%+0.26 -0.2 34
2004-11-21 Spora Luxembourg W 1-041.6 902 900 40.48% 19.58% 39.94%-0.10 +8.9 8
2004-11-21 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-141.6 900 902 39.94% 19.58% 40.48%+0.10 -8.9 10
2004-11-21 Swift Hesperange L 0-142.5 1017 998 42.90% 19.56% 37.54%+0.00 -9.5 19
2004-11-21 @ Alliance 01 W 1-042.5 998 1017 37.54% 19.56% 42.90%+0.00 +9.5 22
2004-11-21 CS Petange W 2-028.8 1301 980 74.16% 16.00% 9.85%+1.83 +4.6 40
2004-11-21 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-228.8 980 1301 9.85% 16.00% 74.16%-1.83 -4.6 17
2004-11-21 Victoria Rosport L 0-243.3 1117 1003 55.24% 19.08% 25.68%+0.57 -22.3 18
2004-11-21 @ Grevenmacher W 2-043.3 1003 1117 25.68% 19.08% 55.24%-0.57 +22.3 25
2004-11-27 F91 Dudelange D 2-260.9 1026 1306 11.97% 16.76% 71.27%-1.81 +2.3 26
2004-11-27 @ Victoria Rosport D 2-260.9 1306 1026 71.27% 16.76% 11.97%+1.81 -2.3 41
2004-11-28 Alliance 01 W 1-045.0 923 1008 28.91% 19.29% 51.80%-0.63 +11.1 15
2004-11-28 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-145.0 1008 923 51.80% 19.29% 28.91%+0.63 -11.1 19
2004-11-28 Avenir Beggen D 2-259.9 911 905 41.08% 19.57% 39.35%-0.08 -0.1 9
2004-11-28 @ Union Luxembourg D 2-259.9 905 911 39.35% 19.57% 41.08%+0.08 +0.1 8
2004-11-28 Grevenmacher W 2-142.1 1212 1094 55.85% 19.03% 25.12%+0.60 +5.7 37
2004-11-28 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-242.1 1094 1212 25.12% 19.03% 55.85%-0.60 -5.7 18
2004-11-28 Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.9 1008 1189 18.97% 18.32% 62.71%-1.21 -4.7 22
2004-11-28 @ Swift Hesperange W 1-034.9 1189 1008 62.71% 18.32% 18.97%+1.21 +4.7 28
2004-11-28 CS Petange L 0-432.3 891 976 28.95% 19.29% 51.75%-0.63 -24.5 10
2004-11-28 @ Spora Luxembourg W 4-032.3 976 891 51.75% 19.29% 28.95%+0.63 +24.5 20
2004-12-04 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-145.6 1304 1218 51.86% 19.29% 28.85%+0.41 -11.2 41
2004-12-04 @ F91 Dudelange W 1-045.6 1218 1304 28.85% 19.29% 51.86%-0.41 +11.1 40
2004-12-05 Union Luxembourg W 3-141.0 997 911 51.91% 19.29% 28.80%+0.41 +11.1 22
2004-12-05 @ Alliance 01 L 1-341.0 911 997 28.80% 19.29% 51.91%-0.41 -11.1 9
2004-12-05 Swift Hesperange W 3-033.3 1089 1003 51.84% 19.29% 28.87%+0.40 +18.7 21
2004-12-05 @ Grevenmacher L 0-333.3 1003 1089 28.87% 19.29% 51.84%-0.40 -18.7 22
2004-12-05 Victoria Rosport L 2-350.9 1000 1028 36.29% 19.54% 44.17%-0.28 -7.4 20
2004-12-05 @ CS Petange W 3-250.9 1028 1000 44.17% 19.54% 36.29%+0.28 +7.4 29
2004-12-05 Wiltz 71 W 1-032.8 1194 934 69.72% 17.12% 13.16%+1.46 +3.3 31
2004-12-05 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-132.8 934 1194 13.16% 17.12% 69.72%-1.46 -3.3 15
2004-12-08 Wiltz 71 L 0-335.7 905 931 36.58% 19.55% 43.87%-0.27 -22.8 8
2004-12-08 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-035.7 931 905 43.87% 19.55% 36.58%+0.27 +22.8 18
2004-12-11 Jeunesse Esch L 0-327.1 900 1197 11.01% 16.44% 72.55%-1.92 -7.5 9
2004-12-11 @ Union Luxembourg W 3-027.1 1197 900 72.55% 16.44% 11.01%+1.92 +7.5 34
2004-12-12 Alliance 01 L 0-233.9 882 1008 24.31% 18.96% 56.72%-0.87 -11.1 8
2004-12-12 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-033.9 1008 882 56.72% 18.96% 24.31%+0.87 +11.1 25
2004-12-12 F91 Dudelange W 2-155.7 985 1293 10.49% 16.25% 73.27%-1.98 +14.5 25
2004-12-12 @ Swift Hesperange L 1-255.7 1293 985 73.27% 16.25% 10.49%+1.98 -14.5 41
2004-12-12 Grevenmacher D 2-260.2 953 1107 21.48% 18.66% 59.86%-1.04 +1.4 19
2004-12-12 @ Wiltz 71 D 2-260.2 1107 953 59.86% 18.66% 21.48%+1.04 -1.4 22
2004-12-12 CS Petange W 3-136.3 1229 993 67.78% 17.51% 14.71%+1.32 +6.0 43
2004-12-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-336.3 993 1229 14.71% 17.51% 67.78%-1.32 -6.0 20
2004-12-12 Victoria Rosport L 2-539.1 867 1035 20.08% 18.49% 61.43%-1.14 -9.9 10
2004-12-12 @ Spora Luxembourg W 5-239.1 1035 867 61.43% 18.49% 20.08%+1.14 +9.9 32
2005-02-24 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.2 871 857 42.25% 19.57% 38.18%-0.03 -0.2 9
2005-02-24 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-154.2 857 871 38.18% 19.57% 42.25%+0.03 +0.2 11
2005-03-12 Alliance 01 W 5-032.3 1106 1019 52.05% 19.28% 28.68%+0.41 +29.9 25
2005-03-12 @ Grevenmacher L 0-532.3 1019 1106 28.68% 19.28% 52.05%-0.41 -29.9 25
2005-03-12 Avenir Beggen W 3-025.1 1278 871 79.29% 14.23% 6.48%+2.35 +4.3 44
2005-03-12 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-325.1 871 1278 6.48% 14.23% 79.29%-2.35 -4.3 9
2005-03-12 Union Luxembourg D 1-154.4 987 892 53.01% 19.22% 27.77%+0.46 -1.2 21
2005-03-12 @ CS Petange D 1-154.4 892 987 27.77% 19.22% 53.01%-0.46 +1.2 10
2005-03-12 Spora Luxembourg W 4-238.3 1205 857 75.89% 15.46% 8.65%+1.99 +3.1 37
2005-03-12 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-438.3 857 1205 8.65% 15.46% 75.89%-1.99 -3.1 11
2005-03-12 Wiltz 71 W 2-143.0 1045 955 52.48% 19.25% 28.26%+0.44 +6.3 35
2005-03-12 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-243.0 955 1045 28.26% 19.25% 52.48%-0.44 -6.3 19
2005-03-13 Swift Hesperange W 3-028.6 1235 999 67.75% 17.52% 14.73%+1.32 +10.0 46
2005-03-13 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-328.6 999 1235 14.73% 17.52% 67.75%-1.32 -10.0 25
2005-03-20 Avenir Beggen D 1-155.5 1208 866 75.49% 15.59% 8.92%+1.96 -3.5 38
2005-03-20 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-155.5 866 1208 8.92% 15.59% 75.49%-1.96 +3.5 10
2005-03-20 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-148.9 1052 1245 17.93% 18.16% 63.91%-1.29 +31.2 38
2005-03-20 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-448.9 1245 1052 63.91% 18.16% 17.93%+1.29 -31.2 46
2005-03-20 Union Luxembourg L 1-254.5 1136 893 68.27% 17.42% 14.31%+1.36 -13.6 25
2005-03-20 @ Grevenmacher W 2-154.5 893 1136 14.31% 17.42% 68.27%-1.36 +13.6 13
2005-03-20 Spora Luxembourg L 2-550.5 989 854 57.80% 18.87% 23.33%+0.71 -24.6 25
2005-03-20 @ Alliance 01 W 5-250.5 854 989 23.33% 18.87% 57.80%-0.71 +24.6 14
2005-03-20 Swift Hesperange W 2-039.0 986 989 39.72% 19.57% 40.70%-0.13 +17.1 24
2005-03-20 @ CS Petange L 0-239.0 989 986 40.70% 19.57% 39.72%+0.13 -17.1 25
2005-03-20 Wiltz 71 W 3-134.1 1282 948 75.00% 15.74% 9.26%+1.91 +3.8 47
2005-03-20 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-334.1 948 1282 9.26% 15.74% 75.00%-1.91 -3.8 19
2005-04-10 Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-048.2 878 1214 9.18% 15.71% 75.12%-2.15 +29.6 17
2005-04-10 @ Spora Luxembourg L 0-248.2 1214 878 75.12% 15.71% 9.18%+2.15 -29.6 46
2005-04-10 F91 Dudelange L 0-130.4 907 1286 7.43% 14.82% 77.75%-2.41 -1.8 13
2005-04-10 @ Union Luxembourg W 1-030.4 1286 907 77.75% 14.82% 7.43%+2.41 +1.8 50
2005-04-10 Grevenmacher L 1-335.9 870 1122 13.67% 17.25% 69.08%-1.64 -5.6 10
2005-04-10 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-135.9 1122 870 69.08% 17.25% 13.67%+1.64 +5.6 28
2005-04-10 Jeunesse Esch L 0-728.5 964 1204 14.46% 17.45% 68.08%-1.57 -21.9 25
2005-04-10 @ Alliance 01 W 7-028.5 1204 964 68.08% 17.45% 14.46%+1.57 +21.8 41
2005-04-10 CS Petange W 2-149.1 945 1003 32.28% 19.44% 48.27%-0.46 +9.9 22
2005-04-10 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-249.1 1003 945 48.27% 19.44% 32.28%+0.46 -9.9 24
2005-04-10 Victoria Rosport D 1-154.4 972 1083 25.91% 19.09% 54.99%-0.78 +1.4 26
2005-04-10 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.4 1083 972 54.99% 19.09% 25.91%+0.78 -1.4 39
2005-04-15 Etzella Ettelbruck L 3-447.3 955 1185 15.17% 17.62% 67.21%-1.51 -3.3 22
2005-04-15 @ Wiltz 71 W 4-347.3 1185 955 67.21% 17.62% 15.17%+1.51 +3.3 49
2005-04-17 F91 Dudelange L 0-228.3 942 1288 8.75% 15.51% 75.73%-2.20 -4.1 25
2005-04-17 @ Alliance 01 W 2-028.3 1288 942 75.73% 15.51% 8.75%+2.20 +4.1 53
2005-04-17 Grevenmacher L 0-242.9 1226 1128 53.49% 19.19% 27.31%+0.48 -21.6 41
2005-04-17 @ Jeunesse Esch W 2-042.9 1128 1226 27.31% 19.19% 53.49%-0.48 +21.6 31
2005-04-17 Swift Hesperange L 0-236.2 908 973 31.34% 19.41% 49.25%-0.51 -13.8 17
2005-04-17 @ Spora Luxembourg W 2-036.2 973 908 49.25% 19.41% 31.34%+0.51 +13.8 29
2005-04-17 CS Petange L 1-437.1 864 993 24.04% 18.94% 57.03%-0.89 -13.4 10
2005-04-17 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-137.1 993 864 57.03% 18.94% 24.04%+0.89 +13.4 27
2005-04-17 Victoria Rosport D 0-050.7 905 1081 19.42% 18.39% 62.19%-1.18 +2.4 14
2005-04-17 @ Union Luxembourg D 0-050.7 1081 905 62.19% 18.39% 19.42%+1.18 -2.4 40
2005-04-24 Alliance 01 L 0-339.5 1006 938 49.58% 19.39% 31.03%+0.30 -29.4 27
2005-04-24 @ CS Petange W 3-039.5 938 1006 31.03% 19.39% 49.58%-0.30 +29.3 28
2005-04-24 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.8 1079 851 67.04% 17.65% 15.31%+1.27 -2.7 41
2005-04-24 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-154.8 851 1079 15.31% 17.65% 67.04%-1.27 +2.7 11
2005-04-24 Jeunesse Esch W 5-137.2 1292 1205 52.08% 19.28% 28.64%+0.42 +20.2 56
2005-04-24 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-537.2 1205 1292 28.64% 19.28% 52.08%-0.42 -20.2 41
2005-04-24 Union Luxembourg W 3-027.5 1188 908 71.27% 16.76% 11.97%+1.58 +8.2 52
2005-04-24 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-327.5 908 1188 11.97% 16.76% 71.27%-1.58 -8.2 14
2005-04-24 Spora Luxembourg D 1-155.0 1149 894 69.32% 17.20% 13.48%+1.43 -2.9 32
2005-04-24 @ Grevenmacher D 1-155.0 894 1149 13.48% 17.20% 69.32%-1.43 +2.9 18
2005-04-24 Wiltz 71 L 1-248.2 987 951 45.27% 19.52% 35.21%+0.10 -9.3 29
2005-04-24 @ Swift Hesperange W 2-148.2 951 987 35.21% 19.52% 45.27%-0.10 +9.3 25

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-04-30 Alliance 01 L 2-358.4 1146 968 62.43% 18.36% 19.21%+0.97 -11.8 0
2005-04-30 @ Grevenmacher W 3-258.4 968 1146 19.21% 18.36% 62.43%-0.97 +11.8 3
2005-04-30 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-339.9 1076 1196 24.96% 19.02% 56.02%-0.84 -9.8 0
2005-04-30 @ Victoria Rosport W 3-139.9 1196 1076 56.02% 19.02% 24.96%+0.84 +9.8 3
2005-04-30 F91 Dudelange L 0-431.2 1185 1312 24.11% 18.94% 56.95%-0.89 -20.8 0
2005-04-30 @ Jeunesse Esch W 4-031.2 1312 1185 56.95% 18.94% 24.11%+0.89 +20.8 3
2005-04-30 Spora Luxembourg W 1-043.4 854 897 34.18% 19.50% 46.32%-0.38 +10.1 3
2005-04-30 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-143.4 897 854 46.32% 19.50% 34.18%+0.38 -10.1 0
2005-04-30 Swift Hesperange W 4-355.4 977 978 40.08% 19.58% 40.34%-0.12 +7.9 3
2005-04-30 @ CS Petange L 3-455.4 978 977 40.34% 19.58% 40.08%+0.12 -7.9 0
2005-04-30 Wiltz 71 W 4-251.5 899 961 31.85% 19.43% 48.72%-0.48 +15.4 3
2005-04-30 @ Union Luxembourg L 2-451.5 961 899 48.72% 19.43% 31.85%+0.48 -15.4 0
2005-05-03 Alliance 01 L 0-237.4 945 980 35.41% 19.53% 45.07%-0.32 -15.3 0
2005-05-03 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-037.4 980 945 45.07% 19.53% 35.41%+0.32 +15.3 6
2005-05-03 F91 Dudelange D 0-051.1 1206 1333 24.16% 18.95% 56.90%-0.88 +1.8 4
2005-05-03 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 0-051.1 1333 1206 56.90% 18.95% 24.16%+0.88 -1.8 4
2005-05-03 Victoria Rosport W 3-032.9 1164 1067 53.32% 19.21% 27.48%+0.48 +17.9 3
2005-05-03 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-332.9 1067 1164 27.48% 19.21% 53.32%-0.48 -17.9 0
2005-05-04 Avenir Beggen L 1-349.1 985 864 56.17% 19.01% 24.82%+0.62 -19.6 3
2005-05-04 @ CS Petange W 3-149.1 864 985 24.82% 19.01% 56.17%-0.62 +19.6 6
2005-05-04 Union Luxembourg L 2-359.4 1135 915 66.32% 17.78% 15.90%+1.22 -12.5 0
2005-05-04 @ Grevenmacher W 3-259.4 915 1135 15.90% 17.78% 66.32%-1.22 +12.5 6
2005-05-04 Swift Hesperange L 2-348.7 887 970 29.17% 19.31% 51.53%-0.61 -6.1 0
2005-05-04 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-248.7 970 887 51.53% 19.31% 29.17%+0.61 +6.1 3
2005-05-08 Avenir Beggen L 0-340.4 976 883 52.76% 19.24% 28.00%+0.45 -31.0 3
2005-05-08 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-040.4 883 976 28.00% 19.24% 52.76%-0.45 +31.0 9
2005-05-08 Grevenmacher L 0-528.8 930 1122 18.07% 18.18% 63.75%-1.28 -19.7 0
2005-05-08 @ Wiltz 71 W 5-028.8 1122 930 63.75% 18.18% 18.07%+1.28 +19.7 3
2005-05-08 Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.5 1208 1182 43.91% 19.55% 36.54%+0.04 -0.3 5
2005-05-08 @ Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-154.5 1182 1208 36.54% 19.55% 43.91%-0.04 +0.3 4
2005-05-08 Union Luxembourg W 3-141.7 995 927 49.55% 19.40% 31.06%+0.30 +11.9 9
2005-05-08 @ Alliance 01 L 1-341.7 927 995 31.06% 19.40% 49.55%-0.30 -11.9 6
2005-05-08 CS Petange L 0-333.3 881 965 29.00% 19.30% 51.70%-0.62 -18.8 0
2005-05-08 @ Spora Luxembourg W 3-033.3 965 881 51.70% 19.30% 29.00%+0.62 +18.8 6
2005-05-08 Victoria Rosport W 5-026.6 1331 1049 71.44% 16.72% 11.84%+1.60 +13.0 7
2005-05-08 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-526.6 1049 1331 11.84% 16.72% 71.44%-1.60 -13.0 0
2005-05-22 Etzella Ettelbruck D 1-155.1 1344 1207 58.00% 18.85% 23.15%+0.72 -1.7 8
2005-05-22 @ F91 Dudelange D 1-155.1 1207 1344 23.15% 18.85% 58.00%-0.72 +1.7 6
2005-05-22 Grevenmacher D 2-260.5 915 1142 15.43% 17.68% 66.90%-1.48 +2.0 7
2005-05-22 @ Union Luxembourg D 2-260.5 1142 915 66.90% 17.68% 15.43%+1.48 -2.0 4
2005-05-22 Jeunesse Esch W 1-047.1 1036 1182 22.21% 18.75% 59.04%-1.00 +12.6 3
2005-05-22 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-147.1 1182 1036 59.04% 18.75% 22.21%+1.00 -12.5 4
2005-05-22 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.3 945 862 51.53% 19.30% 29.16%+0.39 -1.1 4
2005-05-22 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.3 862 945 29.16% 19.30% 51.53%-0.39 +1.1 1
2005-05-22 CS Petange D 3-364.4 914 984 30.81% 19.38% 49.80%-0.53 +0.6 10
2005-05-22 @ Avenir Beggen D 3-364.4 984 914 49.80% 19.38% 30.81%+0.53 -0.6 7
2005-05-22 Wiltz 71 W 4-031.9 1007 910 53.22% 19.21% 27.57%+0.47 +23.4 12
2005-05-22 @ Alliance 01 L 0-431.9 910 1007 27.57% 19.21% 53.22%-0.47 -23.4 0
2005-05-25 Alliance 01 W 2-043.2 917 1030 25.72% 19.08% 55.20%-0.80 +22.2 10
2005-05-25 @ Union Luxembourg L 0-243.2 1030 917 55.20% 19.08% 25.72%+0.80 -22.3 12
2005-05-25 Spora Luxembourg D 1-154.4 983 863 56.07% 19.01% 24.91%+0.61 -1.5 8
2005-05-25 @ CS Petange D 1-154.4 863 983 24.91% 19.01% 56.07%-0.61 +1.5 2
2005-05-25 Swift Hesperange L 2-350.9 915 944 36.13% 19.54% 44.33%-0.29 -7.4 10
2005-05-25 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-250.9 944 915 44.33% 19.54% 36.13%+0.29 +7.4 7
2005-05-25 Wiltz 71 W 4-346.7 1140 887 69.14% 17.24% 13.62%+1.42 +3.0 7
2005-05-25 @ Grevenmacher L 3-446.7 887 1140 13.62% 17.24% 69.14%-1.42 -3.0 0
2005-05-26 Etzella Ettelbruck L 3-453.9 1169 1209 34.69% 19.51% 45.80%-0.35 -7.0 4
2005-05-26 @ Jeunesse Esch W 4-353.9 1209 1169 45.80% 19.51% 34.69%+0.35 +7.0 9
2005-05-26 F91 Dudelange L 0-132.2 1048 1342 11.19% 16.50% 72.30%-1.90 -2.8 3
2005-05-26 @ Victoria Rosport W 1-032.2 1342 1048 72.30% 16.50% 11.19%+1.90 +2.8 11
2005-05-29 Avenir Beggen L 1-538.5 865 908 34.26% 19.50% 46.23%-0.37 -23.5 2
2005-05-29 @ Spora Luxembourg W 5-138.5 908 865 46.23% 19.50% 34.26%+0.37 +23.5 13
2005-05-29 Grevenmacher D 2-260.1 1008 1143 23.37% 18.87% 57.76%-0.93 +1.3 13
2005-05-29 @ Alliance 01 D 2-260.1 1143 1008 57.76% 18.87% 23.37%+0.93 -1.3 8
2005-05-29 Jeunesse Esch W 7-132.1 1345 1162 62.84% 18.31% 18.85%+0.99 +20.1 14
2005-05-29 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-732.1 1162 1345 18.85% 18.31% 62.84%-0.99 -20.1 4
2005-05-29 Union Luxembourg D 0-050.4 884 940 32.56% 19.45% 47.99%-0.45 +0.8 1
2005-05-29 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.4 940 884 47.99% 19.45% 32.56%+0.45 -0.8 11
2005-05-29 CS Petange W 1-042.9 951 982 35.93% 19.54% 44.53%-0.30 +9.8 10
2005-05-29 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-142.9 982 951 44.53% 19.54% 35.93%+0.30 -9.8 8
2005-05-29 Victoria Rosport W 2-032.5 1216 1045 61.61% 18.46% 19.93%+0.92 +9.2 12
2005-05-29 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-232.5 1045 1216 19.93% 18.46% 61.61%-0.92 -9.2 3

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-04-10 9.18% @ Spora Luxembourg 878 2 Etzella Ettelbruck 1214 0
2 2004-12-12 10.49% @ Swift Hesperange 985 2 F91 Dudelange 1293 1
3 2004-11-07 11.22% CS Petange 917 3 @ Jeunesse Esch 1211 0
4 2005-03-20 14.31% Union Luxembourg 893 2 @ Grevenmacher 1136 1
5 2004-11-11 14.66% Alliance 01 996 4 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1234 2
6 2005-05-04 15.90% Union Luxembourg 915 3 @ Grevenmacher 1135 2
7 2005-03-20 17.93% @ Victoria Rosport 1052 4 Etzella Ettelbruck 1245 1
8 2004-11-11 19.14% @ CS Petange 959 3 Grevenmacher 1138 1
9 2005-04-30 19.21% Alliance 01 968 3 @ Grevenmacher 1146 2
10 2005-05-22 22.21% @ Victoria Rosport 1036 1 Jeunesse Esch 1182 0
11 2004-08-29 22.70% @ Victoria Rosport 981 2 Grevenmacher 1123 1
12 2005-03-20 23.33% Spora Luxembourg 854 5 @ Alliance 01 989 2
13 2004-11-11 23.48% Avenir Beggen 885 3 @ Swift Hesperange 1018 1
14 2004-10-17 23.99% @ CS Petange 822 4 Wiltz 71 950 0
15 2004-10-24 24.29% CS Petange 865 4 @ Union Luxembourg 991 0
16 2005-05-04 24.82% Avenir Beggen 864 3 @ CS Petange 985 1
17 2004-11-21 25.68% Victoria Rosport 1003 2 @ Grevenmacher 1117 0
18 2005-05-25 25.72% @ Union Luxembourg 917 2 Alliance 01 1030 0
19 2004-09-12 26.62% @ Avenir Beggen 928 1 Union Luxembourg 1033 0
20 2005-04-17 27.31% Grevenmacher 1128 2 @ Jeunesse Esch 1226 0
21 2005-05-08 28.00% Avenir Beggen 883 3 @ Swift Hesperange 976 0
22 2004-12-04 28.85% Etzella Ettelbruck 1218 1 @ F91 Dudelange 1304 0
23 2004-11-28 28.91% @ Wiltz 71 923 1 Alliance 01 1008 0
24 2004-08-12 30.49% @ Victoria Rosport 956 3 Alliance 01 1028 0
25 2004-08-22 30.89% @ Wiltz 71 968 1 Union Luxembourg 1037 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-10-17 43.54 @ CS Petange 4 822 23.99% Wiltz 71 0 950 57.08% 18.93%
2 2004-10-24 43.31 CS Petange 4 865 24.29% @ Union Luxembourg 0 991 56.75% 18.96%
3 2004-11-07 41.55 CS Petange 3 917 11.22% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1211 72.27% 16.51%
4 2004-08-08 34.40 Etzella Ettelbruck 5 1118 46.67% @ Union Luxembourg 0 1072 33.84% 19.49%
5 2005-03-20 31.25 @ Victoria Rosport 4 1052 17.93% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1245 63.91% 18.16%
6 2005-05-08 31.02 Avenir Beggen 3 883 28.00% @ Swift Hesperange 0 976 52.76% 19.24%
7 2005-03-12 29.90 @ Grevenmacher 5 1106 52.05% Alliance 01 0 1019 28.68% 19.28%
8 2004-08-12 29.64 @ Victoria Rosport 3 956 30.49% Alliance 01 0 1028 50.14% 19.37%
9 2005-04-10 29.59 @ Spora Luxembourg 2 878 9.18% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 1214 75.12% 15.71%
10 2005-04-24 29.35 Alliance 01 3 938 31.03% @ CS Petange 0 1006 49.58% 19.39%
11 2004-08-08 25.13 F91 Dudelange 3 1194 39.15% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1201 41.27% 19.57%
12 2005-03-20 24.63 Spora Luxembourg 5 854 23.33% @ Alliance 01 2 989 57.80% 18.87%
13 2004-11-28 24.46 CS Petange 4 976 51.75% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 891 28.95% 19.29%
14 2004-09-21 23.97 @ Spora Luxembourg 3 949 41.49% Avenir Beggen 0 940 38.94% 19.57%
15 2004-10-31 23.96 @ Victoria Rosport 5 984 45.40% Union Luxembourg 1 948 35.08% 19.52%
16 2005-05-29 23.50 Avenir Beggen 5 908 46.23% @ Spora Luxembourg 1 865 34.26% 19.50%
17 2005-05-22 23.44 @ Alliance 01 4 1007 53.22% Wiltz 71 0 910 27.57% 19.21%
18 2004-12-08 22.78 Wiltz 71 3 931 43.87% @ Avenir Beggen 0 905 36.58% 19.55%
19 2004-11-21 22.27 Victoria Rosport 2 1003 25.68% @ Grevenmacher 0 1117 55.24% 19.08%
20 2005-05-25 22.25 @ Union Luxembourg 2 917 25.72% Alliance 01 0 1030 55.20% 19.08%
21 2005-04-10 21.85 Jeunesse Esch 7 1204 68.08% @ Alliance 01 0 964 14.46% 17.45%
22 2004-11-11 21.64 @ CS Petange 3 959 19.14% Grevenmacher 1 1138 62.51% 18.35%
23 2005-04-17 21.62 Grevenmacher 2 1128 27.31% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1226 53.49% 19.19%
24 2004-11-11 20.91 Alliance 01 4 996 14.66% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1234 67.84% 17.50%
25 2005-04-30 20.84 F91 Dudelange 4 1312 56.95% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1185 24.11% 18.94%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-10-03 64.7 @ Swift Hesperange 3 988 61.29% CS Petange 3 820 20.21% 18.50%
2 2005-05-22 64.4 @ Avenir Beggen 3 914 30.81% CS Petange 3 984 49.80% 19.38%
3 2004-11-27 60.9 @ Victoria Rosport 2 1026 11.97% F91 Dudelange 2 1306 71.27% 16.76%
4 2005-05-22 60.5 @ Union Luxembourg 2 915 15.43% Grevenmacher 2 1142 66.90% 17.68%
5 2004-10-18 60.3 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1201 62.92% Alliance 01 2 1017 18.78% 18.30%
6 2004-12-12 60.2 @ Wiltz 71 2 953 21.48% Grevenmacher 2 1107 59.86% 18.66%
7 2004-11-21 60.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1189 36.88% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1213 43.56% 19.55%
8 2005-05-29 60.1 @ Alliance 01 2 1008 23.37% Grevenmacher 2 1143 57.76% 18.87%
9 2004-09-26 60.0 @ Alliance 01 2 1006 52.50% Avenir Beggen 2 916 28.25% 19.25%
10 2004-08-12 59.9 @ Swift Hesperange 2 1002 35.23% Union Luxembourg 2 1037 45.24% 19.52%
11 2004-11-28 59.9 @ Union Luxembourg 2 911 41.08% Avenir Beggen 2 905 39.35% 19.57%
12 2005-05-04 59.4 Union Luxembourg 3 915 15.90% @ Grevenmacher 2 1135 66.32% 17.78%
13 2005-04-30 58.4 Alliance 01 3 968 19.21% @ Grevenmacher 2 1146 62.43% 18.36%
14 2004-11-11 56.7 Alliance 01 4 996 14.66% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1234 67.84% 17.50%
15 2004-12-12 55.7 @ Swift Hesperange 2 985 10.49% F91 Dudelange 1 1293 73.27% 16.25%
16 2005-03-20 55.5 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1208 75.49% Avenir Beggen 1 866 8.92% 15.59%
17 2005-04-30 55.4 @ CS Petange 4 977 40.08% Swift Hesperange 3 978 40.34% 19.58%
18 2004-10-17 55.2 @ F91 Dudelange 1 1269 71.33% Union Luxembourg 1 988 11.92% 16.75%
19 2005-05-22 55.1 @ F91 Dudelange 1 1344 58.00% Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1207 23.15% 18.85%
20 2005-04-24 55.0 @ Grevenmacher 1 1149 69.32% Spora Luxembourg 1 894 13.48% 17.20%
21 2005-04-24 54.8 @ Victoria Rosport 1 1079 67.04% Avenir Beggen 1 851 15.31% 17.65%
22 2004-10-23 54.5 @ Alliance 01 1 1019 23.04% Grevenmacher 1 1157 58.12% 18.84%
23 2004-10-31 54.5 @ Grevenmacher 1 1155 32.47% Jeunesse Esch 1 1212 48.08% 19.45%
24 2005-03-20 54.5 Union Luxembourg 2 893 14.31% @ Grevenmacher 1 1136 68.27% 17.42%
25 2005-05-08 54.5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1208 43.91% Jeunesse Esch 1 1182 36.54% 19.55%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-11-11 24.4 F91 Dudelange 4 1295 78.30% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 906 7.08% 14.62%
2 2005-03-12 25.1 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1278 79.29% Avenir Beggen 0 871 6.48% 14.23%
3 2005-05-08 26.6 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1331 71.44% Victoria Rosport 0 1049 11.84% 16.72%
4 2004-10-02 26.7 Jeunesse Esch 4 1190 70.75% @ Avenir Beggen 0 917 12.37% 16.89%
5 2004-12-11 27.1 Jeunesse Esch 3 1197 72.55% @ Union Luxembourg 0 900 11.01% 16.44%
6 2004-08-28 27.2 F91 Dudelange 2 1246 79.27% @ CS Petange 0 839 6.49% 14.24%
7 2004-10-24 27.3 Jeunesse Esch 4 1199 68.73% @ Spora Luxembourg 0 951 13.95% 17.33%
8 2005-04-24 27.5 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1188 71.27% Union Luxembourg 0 908 11.97% 16.76%
9 2004-08-22 28.1 @ F91 Dudelange 7 1225 69.36% Spora Luxembourg 0 970 13.45% 17.20%
10 2004-10-20 28.2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1209 68.73% Spora Luxembourg 0 961 13.94% 17.33%
11 2004-10-29 28.3 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1268 68.66% Alliance 01 0 1021 14.00% 17.34%
12 2005-04-17 28.3 F91 Dudelange 2 1288 75.73% @ Alliance 01 0 942 8.75% 15.51%
13 2005-04-10 28.5 Jeunesse Esch 7 1204 68.08% @ Alliance 01 0 964 14.46% 17.45%
14 2005-03-13 28.6 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1235 67.75% Swift Hesperange 0 999 14.73% 17.52%
15 2004-10-31 28.7 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1222 74.23% Wiltz 71 0 900 9.79% 15.97%
16 2004-11-21 28.8 @ F91 Dudelange 2 1301 74.16% CS Petange 0 980 9.85% 16.00%
17 2005-05-08 28.8 Grevenmacher 5 1122 63.75% @ Wiltz 71 0 930 18.07% 18.18%
18 2004-10-03 29.0 F91 Dudelange 2 1264 73.33% @ Wiltz 71 0 955 10.44% 16.23%
19 2004-08-12 29.1 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 5 1152 62.74% Avenir Beggen 0 970 18.94% 18.32%
20 2004-11-07 29.8 Etzella Ettelbruck 5 1227 75.09% @ Avenir Beggen 1 891 9.19% 15.71%
21 2004-08-22 29.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1180 63.13% Victoria Rosport 0 994 18.60% 18.27%
22 2005-04-10 30.4 F91 Dudelange 1 1286 77.75% @ Union Luxembourg 0 907 7.43% 14.82%
23 2004-10-24 30.7 F91 Dudelange 1 1266 76.84% @ Avenir Beggen 0 902 8.02% 15.14%
24 2004-09-26 30.9 @ Grevenmacher 3 1124 59.89% Wiltz 71 0 970 21.44% 18.66%
25 2004-09-25 31.0 Etzella Ettelbruck 4 1198 77.40% @ CS Petange 1 825 7.65% 14.95%