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2005-06 Luxembourg National Division Season

168 games

Final

Champion

F91 Dudelange

51 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiltz 71

7.41 points above expected

34 points · 26.59 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Avenir Beggen

13.55 points below expected

5 points · 18.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 22 16 3 3 51 63 15 +48 47.49 +3.51
2 Jeunesse Esch 22 14 2 6 44 49 19 +30 38.98 +5.02
3 Etzella Ettelbruck 22 13 1 8 40 48 36 +12 40.82 -0.82
4 Grevenmacher 22 12 2 8 38 51 27 +24 38.95 -0.95
5 Wiltz 71 22 9 7 6 34 36 27 +9 26.59 +7.41
6 UN Kaerjeng 22 10 4 8 34 36 33 +3 28.31 +5.69
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 22 10 4 8 34 31 30 +1 28.90 +5.10
8 CS Petange 22 10 2 10 32 29 33 -4 27.25 +4.75
9 Swift Hesperange 22 6 8 8 26 31 37 -6 27.23 -1.23
10 Victoria Rosport 22 6 5 11 23 24 42 -18 29.00 -6.00
11 Rumelange 22 3 3 16 12 20 58 -38 20.80 -8.80
12 Avenir Beggen 22 0 5 17 5 10 71 -61 18.55 -13.55
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 F91 Dudelange 6 4 1 1 13 20 7 +13 62.66 -49.66
2 Wiltz 71 6 4 1 1 13 13 9 +4 45.42 -32.42
3 Avenir Beggen 6 4 0 2 12 8 8 0 10.04 +1.96
4 Swift Hesperange 6 3 1 2 10 10 7 +3 36.89 -26.89
5 Victoria Rosport 6 2 3 1 9 10 8 +2 32.61 -23.61
6 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 3 0 3 9 11 11 0 46.59 -37.59
7 Jeunesse Esch 6 3 0 3 9 9 17 -8 52.12 -43.12
8 CS Petange 6 2 2 2 8 10 7 +3 43.57 -35.57
9 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 6 2 1 3 7 9 9 0 45.40 -38.40
10 Grevenmacher 6 1 1 4 4 7 12 -5 45.48 -41.48
11 Rumelange 6 1 1 4 4 5 12 -7 19.10 -15.10
12 UN Kaerjeng 6 0 3 3 3 8 13 -5 45.84 -42.84

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiltz 71 34 26.59 +7.41
2 UN Kaerjeng 34 28.31 +5.69
3 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 34 28.90 +5.10
4 Jeunesse Esch 44 38.98 +5.02
5 CS Petange 32 27.25 +4.75

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Avenir Beggen 5 18.55 -13.55
2 Rumelange 12 20.80 -8.80
3 Victoria Rosport 23 29.00 -6.00
4 Swift Hesperange 26 27.23 -1.23
5 Grevenmacher 38 38.95 -0.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3 Oct 23 – Oct 30 1 in 56
2 Grevenmacher 5 Nov 6 – Dec 10 1 in 45
3 Jeunesse Esch 5 Aug 10 – Sep 18 1 in 34
4 Etzella Ettelbruck 6 Oct 26 – Dec 4 1 in 26
5 Wiltz 71 2 Sep 25 – Oct 16 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 11 Aug 10 – Nov 6 1 in 555
2 Rumelange 8 Oct 23 – Dec 11 1 in 36
3 F91 Dudelange 2 Nov 20 – Dec 10 1 in 28
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3 Dec 9 – Feb 19 1 in 24
5 Etzella Ettelbruck 2 Sep 18 – Sep 25 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiltz 71 12 Oct 26 – Mar 26 1 in 1,788
2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 6 Sep 17 – Oct 30 1 in 48
3 UN Kaerjeng 5 Oct 17 – Nov 6 1 in 17
4 Grevenmacher 5 Nov 6 – Dec 10 1 in 8
5 Swift Hesperange 4 Sep 18 – Oct 23 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Avenir Beggen 22 Aug 6 – Apr 2 1 in 288
2 Etzella Ettelbruck 4 Sep 18 – Oct 23 1 in 39
3 Swift Hesperange 8 Nov 20 – Mar 26 1 in 37
4 Rumelange 11 Sep 17 – Dec 11 1 in 20
5 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 4 Dec 4 – Feb 19 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
F91 Dudelange 1368 64 +30 12 10.1 +1.9
Jeunesse Esch 1194 53 -27 6 6.1 -0.1
Etzella Ettelbruck 1176 49 +22 9 5.6 +3.4
Wiltz 71 1076 47 +21 12 7.9 +4.1
Grevenmacher 1172 42 -25 3 6.4 -3.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1041 41 -15 6 8.5 -2.5
CS Petange 1060 40 -14 5 8.9 -3.9
UN Kaerjeng 1031 37 -21 3 9.0 -6.0
Swift Hesperange 1044 36 +8 9 7.7 +1.3
Victoria Rosport 994 32 -13 6 7.2 -1.2
Avenir Beggen 861 17 +49 12 3.1 +8.9
Rumelange 895 16 -15 3 4.1 -1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB CP EE FD GRE JE RFUL RUM SH UK VR W7
Avenir Beggen —
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-1
0.62
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-2
1.00
0-2-0
1.92
0-0-2
2.65
0-1-1
1.92
0-0-2
1.50
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-2
1.76
CS Petange
2-0-0
3.82
—
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
1.15
1-0-1
1.78
1-0-1
1.79
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.92
Etzella Ettelbruck
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
3.86
—
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
3.83
2-0-0
4.39
2-0-0
4.03
0-1-1
3.88
2-0-0
3.91
0-0-2
4.19
F91 Dudelange
1-1-0
5.13
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-1
3.58
—
0-1-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
4.45
2-0-0
5.01
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.49
1-1-0
4.68
Grevenmacher
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.87
1-0-1
2.70
1-1-0
1.88
—
0-0-2
2.81
1-0-1
3.47
2-0-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.96
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
3.43
1-1-0
3.77
Jeunesse Esch
2-0-0
4.70
1-0-1
3.85
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
1.91
2-0-0
2.82
—
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.92
0-1-1
3.92
2-0-0
3.62
1-0-1
3.69
1-1-0
3.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0-2-0
3.71
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
1.81
1-0-1
1.22
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
2.00
—
0-1-1
3.67
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
3.23
Rumelange
2-0-0
2.98
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
0.72
0-0-2
1.55
0-0-2
1.73
1-1-0
1.98
—
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.46
Swift Hesperange
1-1-0
3.73
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.13
1-0-1
1.69
1-1-0
1.73
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
3.53
—
0-2-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.80
UN Kaerjeng
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
1.76
0-0-2
1.24
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
3.50
0-2-0
2.93
—
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
3.03
Victoria Rosport
1-1-0
3.67
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
2.96
0-1-1
2.77
—
0-1-1
3.12
Wiltz 71
2-0-0
3.88
1-1-0
2.71
2-0-0
1.48
0-1-1
1.01
0-1-1
1.88
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
2.40
2-0-0
3.18
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.50
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +8.2
Allowed 0.92 -8.0
Differential 0.97 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%6.55%6.55%3.87%1.79%2.98%25.89%
16.55%10.12%5.06%5.36%3.27%1.79%32.14%
26.55%5.06%2.38%1.49%1.49%—16.96%
33.87%5.36%1.49%1.19%0.60%0.30%12.80%
41.79%3.27%1.49%0.60%——7.14%
5+2.98%1.79%—0.30%——5.06%
Total25.89%32.14%16.96%12.80%7.14%5.06%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.60 1.60 2.57
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 168

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%14.29%46.43%
17.14%14.29%7.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%46.43%
23.57%—————3.57%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%17.86%21.43%14.29%14.29%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.82 -2.18
SD 0.73 2.48 2.82
CV 1.14 0.88 —
Max 3 11 +2
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%———3.57%17.86%
110.71%10.71%14.29%7.14%—3.57%46.43%
210.71%7.14%————17.86%
33.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total25.00%39.29%17.86%10.71%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.43 -0.04
SD 1.07 1.37 1.88
CV 0.77 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%—7.14%——10.71%
13.57%—3.57%14.29%3.57%—25.00%
210.71%14.29%3.57%3.57%——32.14%
3—7.14%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
4—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%17.86%25.00%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.68 +0.43
SD 1.40 1.28 2.23
CV 0.66 0.76 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%————10.71%
13.57%10.71%3.57%—3.57%—21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
310.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
410.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
5+7.14%10.71%————17.86%
Total42.86%42.86%10.71%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.96 0.79 +2.18
SD 2.12 0.92 2.48
CV 0.71 1.17 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%———28.57%
1—3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%17.86%
27.14%10.71%——7.14%—25.00%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
43.57%10.71%————14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total28.57%39.29%14.29%3.57%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.39 +0.68
SD 2.37 1.42 3.13
CV 1.14 1.02 —
Max 11 5 +11
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%21.43%
110.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—28.57%
210.71%3.57%————14.29%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
43.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total35.71%35.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.29 +0.79
SD 1.92 1.82 3.12
CV 0.93 1.42 —
Max 8 9 +8
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%14.29%—3.57%3.57%28.57%
110.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%——21.43%
37.14%10.71%————17.86%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total28.57%32.14%21.43%10.71%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.39 +0.04
SD 1.29 1.31 2.19
CV 0.90 0.94 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%7.14%7.14%42.86%
1—10.71%—14.29%7.14%3.57%35.71%
27.14%3.57%——3.57%—14.29%
3—————3.57%3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total10.71%32.14%7.14%17.86%17.86%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.50 -1.61
SD 1.03 1.82 2.17
CV 1.15 0.73 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%10.71%——25.00%
13.57%21.43%3.57%3.57%—3.57%35.71%
210.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
3—3.57%3.57%—3.57%—10.71%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total21.43%39.29%14.29%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.57 -0.11
SD 1.37 1.43 2.06
CV 0.94 0.91 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%7.14%—28.57%
17.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%—28.57%
23.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
37.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
4———————
5+—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
Total25.00%28.57%14.29%21.43%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.64 -0.07
SD 1.48 1.37 2.07
CV 0.94 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%—3.57%32.14%
114.29%10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
2—3.57%7.14%—7.14%—17.86%
33.57%——3.57%——7.14%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+———————
Total25.00%21.43%21.43%17.86%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.79 -0.57
SD 1.20 1.47 1.85
CV 0.99 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—10.71%———17.86%
17.14%14.29%3.57%7.14%—3.57%35.71%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
37.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
43.57%——3.57%——7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%28.57%25.00%10.71%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.29 +0.46
SD 1.38 1.24 2.03
CV 0.79 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
F91 Dudelange 1368 51 47.49 +3.51 69.0% 34 37 43 48 52 56 58
Jeunesse Esch 1194 44 38.98 +5.02 81.0% 24 29 35 39 42 49 55
Etzella Ettelbruck 1176 40 40.82 -0.82 44.0% 18 29 37 41 45 51 56
Grevenmacher 1172 38 38.95 -0.95 47.0% 23 28 36 39 42 48 53
Wiltz 71 1076 34 26.59 +7.41 89.0% 12 17 22 26 30 37 44
CS Petange 1060 32 27.25 +4.75 76.0% 10 17 23 26 32 36 41
Swift Hesperange 1044 26 27.23 -1.23 45.0% 17 18 23 27 31 37 41
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1041 34 28.90 +5.10 87.0% 11 17 25 30 33 39 44
UN Kaerjeng 1031 34 28.31 +5.69 88.0% 10 19 25 29 33 36 42
Victoria Rosport 994 23 29.00 -6.00 16.0% 17 19 25 29 33 37 43
Rumelange 895 12 20.80 -8.80 7.0% 9 11 17 21 23 31 34
Avenir Beggen 861 5 18.55 -13.55 0.0% 7 10 15 18 21 28 35

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 11.5% * Clear Edge: 11.5% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.43%
Strong Edge
51.79%17.86%30.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge
129 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
075.62400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.59+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
71%
F91 Dudelange, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.32/gm
Runaway
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.68 * Some Luck: 4.68 to 7.02 * Lucky: 7.02 to 9.36 * Wild Swing: 9.36 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.7 * Way Off: 2.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.28 points
Some Luck
05.8515
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.694
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
89.00%
Wiltz 71
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Avenir Beggen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Wide Separation: 2.05 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 89.5% * Clear Edge: 89.5% to 92% * Strong Edge: 92% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 53% * Frequent: 53% to 56% * Very Frequent: 56% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 23% * Occasional: 23% to 26% * Frequent: 26% to 28% * Very Frequent: 28% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 138.42
2.02
Strong Separation
11.651.852.052.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%68%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Few
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.35 * Slight Separation: 0.35 to 0.39 * Notable Separation: 0.39 to 0.44 * Lopsided: 0.44 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.43 * Some Carryover: 0.43 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24% * Upset-Prone: 24% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 20.5% * Shaky Favorites: 20.5% to 23.5% * Very Shaky: 23.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Notable Separation
00.350.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.27
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Strong Carryover
00.430.621
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.094
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
F91 Dudelange71.00%16.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%———————
Jeunesse Esch7.00%22.00%27.00%22.00%13.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%——
Etzella Ettelbruck14.00%33.00%21.00%19.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—
Grevenmacher7.00%22.00%32.00%15.00%11.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%——
Wiltz 71—2.00%1.00%8.00%6.00%8.00%19.00%15.00%13.00%17.00%7.00%4.00%
UN Kaerjeng—1.00%4.00%8.00%7.00%23.00%11.00%17.00%12.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg—3.00%2.00%2.00%18.00%20.00%14.00%17.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%
CS Petange—1.00%—5.00%14.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%21.00%9.00%10.00%4.00%
Swift Hesperange——1.00%7.00%9.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%18.00%16.00%8.00%4.00%
Victoria Rosport1.00%—3.00%10.00%11.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%17.00%9.00%4.00%3.00%
Rumelange——1.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%5.00%3.00%7.00%17.00%31.00%30.00%
Avenir Beggen——1.00%———6.00%2.00%2.00%11.00%29.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 94.00% 6.00%
Victoria Rosport 94.00% 6.00%
UN Kaerjeng 93.00% 7.00%
Wiltz 71 92.00% 8.00%
CS Petange 90.00% 10.00%
Swift Hesperange 86.00% 14.00%
Rumelange 37.00% 63.00%
Avenir Beggen 14.00% 86.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
CS Petange 100% —
Etzella Ettelbruck 100% —
F91 Dudelange 100% —
Grevenmacher 100% —
Jeunesse Esch 100% —
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 100% —
Swift Hesperange 100% —
UN Kaerjeng 100% —
Wiltz 71 100% —
Victoria Rosport 99.25% 0.75%
Rumelange 0.75% 99.25%
Avenir Beggen — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-08-06 Avenir Beggen D 0-050.2 1017 1018 51.20% 18.67% 30.13%+0.58 -0.9 1
2005-08-06 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 0-050.2 1018 1017 30.13% 18.67% 51.20%-0.58 +0.9 1
2005-08-06 Swift Hesperange D 0-050.1 987 1029 45.70% 18.88% 35.42%+0.26 -0.4 1
2005-08-06 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.1 1029 987 35.42% 18.88% 45.70%-0.26 +0.4 1
2005-08-06 Victoria Rosport D 0-050.1 1002 1072 41.80% 18.94% 39.26%+0.05 -0.1 1
2005-08-06 @ Rumelange D 0-050.1 1072 1002 39.26% 18.94% 41.80%-0.05 +0.1 1
2005-08-07 F91 Dudelange L 0-335.7 1135 1267 33.17% 18.81% 48.02%-0.44 -16.3 0
2005-08-07 @ Jeunesse Esch W 3-035.7 1267 1135 48.02% 18.81% 33.17%+0.44 +16.3 3
2005-08-07 Grevenmacher W 2-141.6 1179 1137 56.45% 18.30% 25.25%+0.91 +4.4 3
2005-08-07 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-241.6 1137 1179 25.25% 18.30% 56.45%-0.91 -4.4 0
2005-08-07 CS Petange W 3-141.9 1028 1041 49.47% 18.75% 31.78%+0.48 +9.3 3
2005-08-07 @ UN Kaerjeng L 1-341.9 1041 1028 31.78% 18.75% 49.47%-0.48 -9.4 0
2005-08-10 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-341.0 1018 1184 29.02% 18.60% 52.38%-0.69 -8.6 1
2005-08-10 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-141.0 1184 1018 52.38% 18.60% 29.02%+0.69 +8.6 6
2005-08-10 Jeunesse Esch L 1-441.1 1002 1119 35.19% 18.88% 45.93%-0.32 -14.4 1
2005-08-10 @ Rumelange W 4-141.1 1119 1002 45.93% 18.88% 35.19%+0.32 +14.4 3
2005-08-10 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-250.0 1032 1016 53.33% 18.54% 28.13%+0.71 -8.4 0
2005-08-10 @ CS Petange W 2-150.0 1016 1032 28.13% 18.54% 53.33%-0.71 +8.4 4
2005-08-10 UN Kaerjeng D 0-050.2 1029 1037 50.26% 18.72% 31.03%+0.52 -0.8 2
2005-08-10 @ Swift Hesperange D 0-050.2 1037 1029 31.03% 18.72% 50.26%-0.52 +0.8 4
2005-08-10 Victoria Rosport L 0-146.8 1133 1072 58.70% 18.08% 23.23%+1.06 -9.7 0
2005-08-10 @ Grevenmacher W 1-046.8 1072 1133 23.23% 18.08% 58.70%-1.06 +9.7 4
2005-08-10 Wiltz 71 W 2-028.1 1283 986 78.49% 13.70% 7.81%+2.88 +2.7 6
2005-08-10 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-228.1 986 1283 7.81% 13.70% 78.49%-2.88 -2.7 1
2005-08-14 Avenir Beggen W 3-031.9 1082 1010 59.89% 17.94% 22.17%+1.14 +11.4 7
2005-08-14 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-331.9 1010 1082 22.17% 17.94% 59.89%-1.14 -11.4 1
2005-08-14 F91 Dudelange L 0-430.4 1038 1286 20.30% 17.67% 62.02%-1.34 -13.7 4
2005-08-14 @ UN Kaerjeng W 4-030.4 1286 1038 62.02% 17.67% 20.30%+1.34 +13.7 9
2005-08-14 Jeunesse Esch L 1-341.6 984 1133 30.91% 18.71% 50.38%-0.57 -9.1 1
2005-08-14 @ Wiltz 71 W 3-141.6 1133 984 50.38% 18.71% 30.91%+0.57 +9.1 6
2005-08-14 Rumelange W 4-029.0 1123 988 66.35% 16.99% 16.67%+1.63 +11.3 3
2005-08-14 @ Grevenmacher L 0-429.0 988 1123 16.67% 16.99% 66.35%-1.63 -11.3 1
2005-08-14 Swift Hesperange W 3-034.6 1024 1028 50.80% 18.69% 30.51%+0.56 +15.1 7
2005-08-14 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-334.6 1028 1024 30.51% 18.69% 50.80%-0.56 -15.2 2
2005-08-14 CS Petange W 5-027.9 1192 1024 69.29% 16.39% 14.32%+1.89 +12.0 9
2005-08-14 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-527.9 1024 1192 14.32% 16.39% 69.29%-1.89 -12.0 0
2005-08-20 Grevenmacher L 0-1135.3 998 1135 32.59% 18.79% 48.62%-0.47 -54.7 1
2005-08-20 @ Avenir Beggen W 11-035.3 1135 998 48.62% 18.79% 32.59%+0.47 +54.7 6
2005-08-20 Wiltz 71 L 1-347.8 977 975 51.55% 18.65% 29.80%+0.60 -14.0 1
2005-08-20 @ Rumelange W 3-147.8 975 977 29.80% 18.65% 51.55%-0.60 +14.1 4
2005-08-21 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-346.7 1013 1204 26.02% 18.37% 55.62%-0.90 -4.3 2
2005-08-21 @ Swift Hesperange W 3-246.7 1204 1013 55.62% 18.37% 26.02%+0.90 +4.3 12
2005-08-21 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 5-025.9 1300 1040 76.18% 14.51% 9.31%+2.60 +7.7 12
2005-08-21 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-525.9 1040 1300 9.31% 14.51% 76.18%-2.60 -7.7 7
2005-08-21 UN Kaerjeng W 2-032.2 1142 1024 64.72% 17.27% 18.01%+1.50 +6.5 9
2005-08-21 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-232.2 1024 1142 18.01% 17.27% 64.72%-1.50 -6.5 4
2005-08-21 Victoria Rosport W 2-039.6 1012 1093 40.09% 18.94% 40.97%-0.04 +13.3 3
2005-08-21 @ CS Petange L 0-239.6 1093 1012 40.97% 18.94% 40.09%+0.04 -13.3 7
2005-09-10 Rumelange L 1-248.7 944 962 48.82% 18.78% 32.40%+0.44 -7.7 1
2005-09-10 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-148.7 962 944 32.40% 18.78% 48.82%-0.44 +7.7 4
2005-09-11 Jeunesse Esch L 0-140.0 1032 1149 35.13% 18.87% 46.00%-0.32 -6.2 7
2005-09-11 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 1-040.0 1149 1032 46.00% 18.87% 35.13%+0.32 +6.2 12
2005-09-12 F91 Dudelange W 1-042.9 1209 1307 37.62% 18.92% 43.46%-0.18 +7.4 15
2005-09-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-142.9 1307 1209 43.46% 18.92% 37.62%+0.18 -7.4 12
2005-09-12 Swift Hesperange W 4-348.7 1080 1009 59.80% 17.95% 22.25%+1.13 +3.6 10
2005-09-12 @ Victoria Rosport L 3-448.7 1009 1080 22.25% 17.95% 59.80%-1.13 -3.6 2
2005-09-12 CS Petange W 2-137.8 1189 1025 68.93% 16.47% 14.59%+1.86 +2.6 9
2005-09-12 @ Grevenmacher L 1-237.8 1025 1189 14.59% 16.47% 68.93%-1.86 -2.6 3
2005-09-12 Wiltz 71 W 2-035.1 1018 989 54.92% 18.42% 26.66%+0.81 +9.3 7
2005-09-12 @ UN Kaerjeng L 0-235.1 989 1018 26.66% 18.42% 54.92%-0.81 -9.3 4
2005-09-17 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-247.6 979 1026 45.07% 18.90% 36.04%+0.23 -7.2 4
2005-09-17 @ Wiltz 71 W 2-147.6 1026 979 36.04% 18.90% 45.07%-0.23 +7.2 10
2005-09-17 UN Kaerjeng L 3-552.0 970 1027 43.62% 18.92% 37.46%+0.15 -10.3 4
2005-09-17 @ Rumelange W 5-352.0 1027 970 37.46% 18.92% 43.62%-0.15 +10.3 10
2005-09-18 Avenir Beggen W 2-033.1 1022 936 61.47% 17.75% 20.78%+1.25 +7.4 6
2005-09-18 @ CS Petange L 0-233.1 936 1022 20.78% 17.75% 61.47%-1.25 -7.4 1
2005-09-18 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-037.1 1155 1216 43.01% 18.93% 38.06%+0.11 +18.2 15
2005-09-18 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-337.1 1216 1155 38.06% 18.93% 43.01%-0.11 -18.2 15
2005-09-18 Grevenmacher W 3-148.8 1005 1192 26.49% 18.41% 55.10%-0.86 +14.9 5
2005-09-18 @ Swift Hesperange L 1-348.8 1192 1005 55.10% 18.41% 26.49%+0.86 -14.9 9
2005-09-18 Victoria Rosport W 3-028.1 1300 1083 73.12% 15.44% 11.44%+2.26 +5.9 15
2005-09-18 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-328.1 1083 1300 11.44% 15.44% 73.12%-2.26 -6.0 10
2005-09-22 Jeunesse Esch W 1-042.4 1077 1173 38.02% 18.93% 43.05%-0.16 +7.4 13
2005-09-22 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-142.4 1173 1077 43.05% 18.93% 38.02%+0.16 -7.4 15
2005-09-22 Swift Hesperange L 1-540.4 929 1020 38.66% 18.94% 42.41%-0.12 -20.1 1
2005-09-22 @ Avenir Beggen W 5-140.4 1020 929 42.41% 18.94% 38.66%+0.12 +20.1 8
2005-09-22 UN Kaerjeng W 1-038.5 1033 1037 50.73% 18.69% 30.57%+0.55 +5.5 13
2005-09-22 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-138.5 1037 1033 30.57% 18.69% 50.73%-0.55 -5.5 10
2005-09-24 F91 Dudelange D 1-154.3 1177 1306 33.57% 18.83% 47.61%-0.41 +0.5 10
2005-09-24 @ Grevenmacher D 1-154.3 1306 1177 47.61% 18.83% 33.57%+0.41 -0.5 16
2005-09-25 Rumelange W 4-243.0 1030 960 59.67% 17.97% 22.36%+1.13 +6.1 9
2005-09-25 @ CS Petange L 2-443.0 960 1030 22.36% 17.97% 59.67%-1.13 -6.1 4
2005-09-25 Wiltz 71 L 1-255.1 1198 972 73.78% 15.25% 10.96%+2.33 -11.3 15
2005-09-25 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 2-155.1 972 1198 10.96% 15.25% 73.78%-2.33 +11.3 7
2005-10-16 Avenir Beggen W 4-129.7 1305 908 83.78% 11.43% 4.79%+3.66 +2.0 19
2005-10-16 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-429.7 908 1305 4.79% 11.43% 83.78%-3.66 -2.0 1
2005-10-16 Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 1-153.9 954 1038 39.63% 18.94% 41.42%-0.07 +0.1 5
2005-10-16 @ Rumelange D 1-153.9 1038 954 41.42% 18.94% 39.63%+0.07 -0.1 14
2005-10-16 CS Petange D 1-154.0 1040 1036 51.83% 18.63% 29.54%+0.62 -0.8 9
2005-10-16 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.0 1036 1040 29.54% 18.63% 51.83%-0.62 +0.8 10
2005-10-16 Victoria Rosport W 3-038.7 983 1085 37.26% 18.92% 43.82%-0.20 +20.5 10
2005-10-16 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-338.7 1085 983 43.82% 18.92% 37.26%+0.20 -20.5 13
2005-10-17 Etzella Ettelbruck D 2-259.1 1032 1186 30.25% 18.68% 51.08%-0.61 +0.6 11
2005-10-17 @ UN Kaerjeng D 2-259.1 1186 1032 51.08% 18.68% 30.25%+0.61 -0.6 16
2005-10-17 Grevenmacher W 4-246.2 1166 1178 49.76% 18.74% 31.50%+0.50 +8.3 18
2005-10-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 2-446.2 1178 1166 31.50% 18.74% 49.76%-0.50 -8.3 10
2005-10-23 F91 Dudelange L 0-134.6 1037 1307 18.37% 17.34% 64.29%-1.51 -3.5 10
2005-10-23 @ CS Petange W 1-034.6 1307 1037 64.29% 17.34% 18.37%+1.51 +3.5 22
2005-10-23 Jeunesse Esch L 0-134.5 906 1174 18.61% 17.38% 64.01%-1.49 -3.5 1
2005-10-23 @ Avenir Beggen W 1-034.5 1174 906 64.01% 17.38% 18.61%+1.49 +3.5 21
2005-10-23 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-352.0 1186 1038 67.46% 16.78% 15.77%+1.73 -18.0 16
2005-10-23 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-152.0 1038 1186 15.77% 16.78% 67.46%-1.73 +18.0 17
2005-10-23 Rumelange W 1-035.3 1039 954 61.36% 17.76% 20.88%+1.25 +3.9 12
2005-10-23 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-135.3 954 1039 20.88% 17.76% 61.36%-1.25 -3.9 5
2005-10-23 UN Kaerjeng D 1-154.0 1064 1032 55.31% 18.39% 26.30%+0.83 -1.1 14
2005-10-23 @ Victoria Rosport D 1-154.0 1032 1064 26.30% 18.39% 55.31%-0.83 +1.1 12
2005-10-23 Wiltz 71 W 3-136.0 1169 1004 69.03% 16.45% 14.52%+1.87 +4.5 13
2005-10-23 @ Grevenmacher L 1-336.0 1004 1169 14.52% 16.45% 69.03%-1.87 -4.5 10
2005-10-26 Avenir Beggen W 4-030.2 999 903 62.51% 17.61% 19.89%+1.33 +13.4 13
2005-10-26 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-430.2 903 999 19.89% 17.61% 62.51%-1.33 -13.4 1
2005-10-26 Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-234.0 950 1168 23.20% 18.07% 58.73%-1.10 -8.2 5
2005-10-26 @ Rumelange W 2-034.0 1168 950 58.73% 18.07% 23.20%+1.10 +8.2 19
2005-10-26 Grevenmacher W 5-143.6 1033 1174 32.04% 18.77% 49.20%-0.50 +24.6 15
2005-10-26 @ UN Kaerjeng L 1-543.6 1174 1033 49.20% 18.77% 32.04%+0.50 -24.6 13
2005-10-26 Swift Hesperange W 3-133.9 1311 1043 76.67% 14.35% 8.98%+2.66 +2.8 25
2005-10-26 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-333.9 1043 1311 8.98% 14.35% 76.67%-2.66 -2.8 12
2005-10-26 CS Petange L 0-149.0 1178 1033 67.18% 16.83% 15.99%+1.70 -11.0 21
2005-10-26 @ Jeunesse Esch W 1-049.0 1033 1178 15.99% 16.83% 67.18%-1.70 +11.0 13
2005-10-26 Victoria Rosport W 5-033.5 1056 1063 50.39% 18.71% 30.90%+0.53 +24.7 20
2005-10-26 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-533.5 1063 1056 30.90% 18.71% 50.39%-0.53 -24.7 14
2005-10-30 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-243.8 1038 1176 32.43% 18.78% 48.79%-0.48 -5.5 14
2005-10-30 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-143.8 1176 1038 48.79% 18.78% 32.43%+0.48 +5.5 22
2005-10-30 Jeunesse Esch W 2-148.3 1040 1167 33.88% 18.84% 47.28%-0.39 +7.5 15
2005-10-30 @ Swift Hesperange L 1-248.3 1167 1040 47.28% 18.84% 33.88%+0.39 -7.5 21
2005-10-30 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-244.9 1149 1081 59.50% 17.99% 22.51%+1.11 -18.5 13
2005-10-30 @ Grevenmacher W 2-044.9 1081 1149 22.51% 17.99% 59.50%-1.11 +18.5 23
2005-10-30 Rumelange W 6-127.2 1314 942 82.58% 12.00% 5.42%+3.46 +3.6 28
2005-10-30 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-627.2 942 1314 5.42% 12.00% 82.58%-3.46 -3.6 5
2005-10-30 UN Kaerjeng L 0-334.0 890 1058 28.63% 18.57% 52.79%-0.72 -14.3 1
2005-10-30 @ Avenir Beggen W 3-034.0 1058 890 52.79% 18.57% 28.63%+0.72 +14.3 18
2005-10-30 Wiltz 71 D 1-154.0 1044 1013 55.23% 18.40% 26.37%+0.83 -1.1 14
2005-10-30 @ CS Petange D 1-154.0 1013 1044 26.37% 18.40% 55.23%-0.83 +1.1 14
2005-11-06 Avenir Beggen W 5-024.9 1182 875 79.06% 13.48% 7.46%+2.96 +6.1 25
2005-11-06 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-524.9 875 1182 7.46% 13.48% 79.06%-2.96 -6.1 1
2005-11-06 F91 Dudelange D 1-154.6 1014 1317 15.83% 16.79% 67.38%-1.76 +2.1 15
2005-11-06 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-154.6 1317 1014 67.38% 16.79% 15.83%+1.76 -2.1 29
2005-11-06 Grevenmacher L 1-441.9 1033 1131 37.77% 18.93% 43.31%-0.17 -15.3 14
2005-11-06 @ Victoria Rosport W 4-141.9 1131 1033 43.31% 18.93% 37.77%+0.17 +15.3 16
2005-11-06 Rumelange W 5-026.6 1159 938 73.45% 15.35% 11.20%+2.30 +9.4 24
2005-11-06 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-526.6 938 1159 11.20% 15.35% 73.45%-2.30 -9.4 5
2005-11-06 Swift Hesperange D 1-154.0 1072 1048 54.34% 18.47% 27.19%+0.77 -1.0 19
2005-11-06 @ UN Kaerjeng D 1-154.0 1048 1072 27.19% 18.47% 54.34%-0.77 +1.0 16
2005-11-06 CS Petange L 1-349.6 1099 1043 58.15% 18.13% 23.72%+1.02 -15.7 23
2005-11-06 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-149.6 1043 1099 23.72% 18.13% 58.15%-1.02 +15.7 17
2005-11-12 Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-342.5 1059 1188 33.56% 18.83% 47.62%-0.41 -9.8 17
2005-11-12 @ CS Petange W 3-142.5 1188 1059 47.62% 18.83% 33.56%+0.41 +9.8 28
2005-11-12 Grevenmacher L 0-631.2 929 1146 23.27% 18.08% 58.64%-1.10 -22.8 5
2005-11-12 @ Rumelange W 6-031.2 1146 929 58.64% 18.08% 23.27%+1.10 +22.8 19
2005-11-12 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-249.4 1049 1084 46.66% 18.86% 34.49%+0.32 +5.5 19
2005-11-12 @ Swift Hesperange L 2-349.4 1084 1049 34.49% 18.86% 46.66%-0.32 -5.5 23
2005-11-12 UN Kaerjeng W 4-026.6 1315 1071 75.08% 14.87% 10.05%+2.47 +6.8 32
2005-11-12 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-426.6 1071 1315 10.05% 14.87% 75.08%-2.47 -6.8 19
2005-11-12 Victoria Rosport D 1-153.9 869 1018 31.03% 18.72% 50.25%-0.57 +0.7 2
2005-11-12 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-153.9 1018 869 50.25% 18.72% 31.03%+0.57 -0.7 15
2005-11-12 Wiltz 71 D 1-154.6 1169 1016 67.91% 16.68% 15.40%+1.77 -2.1 25
2005-11-12 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.6 1016 1169 15.40% 16.68% 67.91%-1.77 +2.1 16
2005-11-20 Avenir Beggen W 2-028.0 1169 870 78.62% 13.65% 7.73%+2.90 +2.7 22
2005-11-20 @ Grevenmacher L 0-228.0 870 1169 7.73% 13.65% 78.62%-2.90 -2.7 2
2005-11-20 F91 Dudelange W 1-047.7 1078 1322 20.73% 17.74% 61.54%-1.30 +10.1 26
2005-11-20 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-147.7 1322 1078 61.54% 17.74% 20.73%+1.30 -10.1 32
2005-11-20 Jeunesse Esch L 1-441.7 1064 1167 37.15% 18.92% 43.93%-0.21 -15.1 19
2005-11-20 @ UN Kaerjeng W 4-141.7 1167 1064 43.93% 18.92% 37.15%+0.21 +15.1 28
2005-11-20 Rumelange W 1-034.5 1018 906 64.09% 17.37% 18.54%+1.45 +3.5 19
2005-11-20 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-134.5 906 1018 18.54% 17.37% 64.09%-1.45 -3.5 5
2005-11-20 Swift Hesperange W 2-138.3 1197 1054 67.04% 16.86% 16.11%+1.69 +2.9 31
2005-11-20 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-238.3 1054 1197 16.11% 16.86% 67.04%-1.69 -2.9 19
2005-11-20 CS Petange W 1-039.6 1017 1049 47.03% 18.84% 34.13%+0.34 +6.1 18
2005-11-20 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-139.6 1049 1017 34.13% 18.84% 47.03%-0.34 -6.1 17
2005-12-04 Jeunesse Esch W 2-142.5 1200 1182 53.66% 18.52% 27.82%+0.73 +4.8 34
2005-12-04 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-242.5 1182 1200 27.82% 18.52% 53.66%-0.73 -4.8 28
2005-12-04 Rumelange W 1-033.5 1049 903 67.38% 16.79% 15.83%+1.72 +3.0 22
2005-12-04 @ UN Kaerjeng L 0-133.5 903 1049 15.83% 16.79% 67.38%-1.72 -3.0 5
2005-12-04 Swift Hesperange W 3-030.5 1171 1052 64.87% 17.24% 17.89%+1.51 +9.3 25
2005-12-04 @ Grevenmacher L 0-330.5 1052 1171 17.89% 17.24% 64.87%-1.51 -9.3 19
2005-12-04 CS Petange L 1-242.3 867 1043 27.76% 18.51% 53.73%-0.78 -4.8 2
2005-12-04 @ Avenir Beggen W 2-142.3 1043 867 53.73% 18.51% 27.76%+0.78 +4.8 20
2005-12-04 Wiltz 71 D 2-259.3 1088 1022 59.34% 18.01% 22.66%+1.10 -1.1 27
2005-12-04 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 2-259.3 1022 1088 22.66% 18.01% 59.34%-1.10 +1.1 20
2005-12-09 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-144.4 1052 1087 46.62% 18.86% 34.52%+0.31 +5.8 25
2005-12-09 @ UN Kaerjeng L 1-244.4 1087 1052 34.52% 18.86% 46.62%-0.31 -5.8 27
2005-12-10 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-358.5 1023 1205 26.99% 18.45% 54.56%-0.83 +7.9 23
2005-12-10 @ Wiltz 71 L 3-458.5 1205 1023 54.56% 18.45% 26.99%+0.83 -7.9 34
2005-12-10 Grevenmacher L 1-253.7 1312 1181 65.92% 17.06% 17.02%+1.60 -10.2 32
2005-12-10 @ F91 Dudelange W 2-153.7 1181 1312 17.02% 17.06% 65.92%-1.60 +10.2 28
2005-12-11 Avenir Beggen D 1-154.7 1042 862 70.25% 16.18% 13.58%+1.98 -2.3 20
2005-12-11 @ Swift Hesperange D 1-154.7 862 1042 13.58% 16.18% 70.25%-1.98 +2.3 3
2005-12-11 CS Petange L 1-341.7 900 1048 31.08% 18.72% 50.20%-0.56 -9.2 5
2005-12-11 @ Rumelange W 3-141.7 1048 900 50.20% 18.72% 31.08%+0.56 +9.2 23
2005-12-11 Victoria Rosport W 2-031.2 1177 1023 68.00% 16.67% 15.33%+1.78 +5.5 31
2005-12-11 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-231.2 1023 1177 15.33% 16.67% 68.00%-1.78 -5.5 18
2005-12-14 F91 Dudelange L 2-441.4 1018 1302 17.29% 17.12% 65.59%-1.61 -4.8 18
2005-12-14 @ Victoria Rosport W 4-241.4 1302 1018 65.59% 17.12% 17.29%+1.61 +4.8 35
2005-12-16 Grevenmacher W 1-043.9 1057 1191 32.88% 18.80% 48.32%-0.45 +8.1 26
2005-12-16 @ CS Petange L 0-143.9 1191 1057 48.32% 18.80% 32.88%+0.45 -8.1 28
2005-12-17 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 4-030.1 1182 1082 62.97% 17.54% 19.49%+1.37 +13.2 34
2005-12-17 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-430.1 1082 1182 19.49% 17.54% 62.97%-1.37 -13.2 27
2005-12-18 Avenir Beggen W 4-138.5 890 865 54.53% 18.45% 27.02%+0.78 +11.5 8
2005-12-18 @ Rumelange L 1-438.5 865 890 27.02% 18.45% 54.53%-0.78 -11.5 3
2005-12-18 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-138.0 1306 1197 63.81% 17.41% 18.78%+1.43 +5.8 38
2005-12-18 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-338.0 1197 1306 18.78% 17.41% 63.81%-1.43 -5.8 34
2006-02-12 UN Kaerjeng W 3-142.4 1031 1058 47.64% 18.83% 33.54%+0.37 +9.8 26
2006-02-12 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-342.4 1058 1031 33.54% 18.83% 47.64%-0.37 -9.8 25
2006-02-14 Victoria Rosport D 2-259.1 1040 1013 54.71% 18.44% 26.85%+0.80 -0.8 21
2006-02-14 @ Swift Hesperange D 2-259.1 1013 1040 26.85% 18.44% 54.71%-0.80 +0.8 19
2006-02-19 F91 Dudelange D 1-155.5 853 1312 7.60% 13.57% 78.83%-2.97 +2.9 4
2006-02-19 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-155.5 1312 853 78.83% 13.57% 7.60%+2.97 -2.9 39
2006-02-19 Jeunesse Esch L 0-242.3 1183 1195 49.63% 18.75% 31.62%+0.49 -15.7 28
2006-02-19 @ Grevenmacher W 2-042.3 1195 1183 31.62% 18.75% 49.63%-0.49 +15.7 37
2006-02-19 Rumelange L 0-247.2 1068 902 69.11% 16.43% 14.45%+1.87 -21.2 27
2006-02-19 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-047.2 902 1068 14.45% 16.43% 69.11%-1.87 +21.2 11
2006-02-19 Swift Hesperange W 1-037.4 1065 1039 54.54% 18.45% 27.01%+0.79 +5.0 29
2006-02-19 @ CS Petange L 0-137.4 1039 1065 27.01% 18.45% 54.54%-0.79 -5.0 21
2006-02-19 Wiltz 71 D 2-259.0 1014 1040 47.74% 18.82% 33.43%+0.38 -0.4 20
2006-02-19 @ Victoria Rosport D 2-259.0 1040 1014 33.43% 18.82% 47.74%-0.38 +0.4 27
2006-03-12 F91 Dudelange L 1-632.6 1034 1309 18.00% 17.27% 64.73%-1.54 -12.5 21
2006-03-12 @ Swift Hesperange W 6-132.6 1309 1034 64.73% 17.27% 18.00%+1.54 +12.5 42
2006-03-12 Jeunesse Esch L 1-243.7 1070 1211 31.96% 18.76% 49.27%-0.51 -5.4 29
2006-03-12 @ CS Petange W 2-143.7 1211 1070 49.27% 18.76% 31.96%+0.51 +5.4 40
2006-03-12 Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-346.4 1013 1047 46.77% 18.85% 34.38%+0.32 -12.9 20
2006-03-12 @ Victoria Rosport W 3-146.4 1047 1013 34.38% 18.85% 46.77%-0.32 +12.9 30
2006-03-12 Rumelange W 4-131.8 1191 923 76.72% 14.33% 8.95%+2.66 +3.9 37
2006-03-12 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 1-431.8 923 1191 8.95% 14.33% 76.72%-2.66 -3.9 11
2006-03-12 UN Kaerjeng W 2-139.0 1167 1048 64.77% 17.26% 17.97%+1.51 +3.2 31
2006-03-12 @ Grevenmacher L 1-239.0 1048 1167 17.97% 17.26% 64.77%-1.51 -3.2 25
2006-03-12 Wiltz 71 L 0-532.2 856 1041 26.74% 18.43% 54.83%-0.84 -21.7 4
2006-03-12 @ Avenir Beggen W 5-032.2 1041 856 54.83% 18.43% 26.74%+0.84 +21.7 30
2006-03-19 Avenir Beggen W 8-024.4 1217 834 83.10% 11.76% 5.14%+3.55 +6.4 43
2006-03-19 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-824.4 834 1217 5.14% 11.76% 83.10%-3.55 -6.4 4
2006-03-19 Etzella Ettelbruck W 1-044.0 1060 1195 32.71% 18.79% 48.49%-0.46 +8.2 33
2006-03-19 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-144.0 1195 1060 48.49% 18.79% 32.71%+0.46 -8.2 37
2006-03-19 Grevenmacher D 0-050.1 1062 1170 36.36% 18.90% 44.74%-0.25 +0.3 31
2006-03-19 @ Wiltz 71 D 0-050.1 1170 1062 44.74% 18.90% 36.36%+0.25 -0.3 32
2006-03-19 Swift Hesperange D 1-153.9 919 1022 37.10% 18.92% 43.98%-0.21 +0.2 12
2006-03-19 @ Rumelange D 1-153.9 1022 919 43.98% 18.92% 37.10%+0.21 -0.3 22
2006-03-19 CS Petange W 5-130.5 1322 1065 75.98% 14.58% 9.44%+2.58 +5.3 45
2006-03-19 @ F91 Dudelange L 1-530.5 1065 1322 9.44% 14.58% 75.98%-2.58 -5.3 29
2006-03-19 Victoria Rosport W 1-036.7 1045 1000 56.82% 18.26% 24.92%+0.93 +4.6 28
2006-03-19 @ UN Kaerjeng L 0-136.7 1000 1045 24.92% 18.26% 56.82%-0.93 -4.6 20
2006-03-22 UN Kaerjeng L 1-351.8 1187 1050 66.53% 16.95% 16.52%+1.65 -17.8 37
2006-03-22 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-151.8 1050 1187 16.52% 16.95% 66.53%-1.65 +17.8 31
2006-03-26 Avenir Beggen W 3-027.4 1067 828 74.78% 14.96% 10.26%+2.44 +5.3 34
2006-03-26 @ UN Kaerjeng L 0-327.4 828 1067 10.26% 14.96% 74.78%-2.44 -5.3 4
2006-03-26 F91 Dudelange L 0-426.3 919 1327 9.72% 14.71% 75.57%-2.57 -6.6 12
2006-03-26 @ Rumelange W 4-026.3 1327 919 75.57% 14.71% 9.72%+2.57 +6.5 48
2006-03-26 Grevenmacher L 0-238.5 1068 1170 37.19% 18.92% 43.89%-0.20 -12.3 33
2006-03-26 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-038.5 1170 1068 43.89% 18.92% 37.19%+0.20 +12.3 35
2006-03-26 Swift Hesperange D 1-154.9 1223 1022 71.97% 15.75% 12.28%+2.15 -2.4 44
2006-03-26 @ Jeunesse Esch D 1-154.9 1022 1223 12.28% 15.75% 71.97%-2.15 +2.4 23
2006-03-26 CS Petange W 1-038.2 1063 1059 51.74% 18.64% 29.62%+0.61 +5.4 34
2006-03-26 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-138.2 1059 1063 29.62% 18.64% 51.74%-0.61 -5.4 29
2006-03-26 Victoria Rosport W 4-240.1 1169 996 69.73% 16.29% 13.98%+1.93 +3.9 40
2006-03-26 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-440.1 996 1169 13.98% 16.29% 69.73%-1.93 -3.9 20
2006-04-02 Etzella Ettelbruck W 4-139.2 1182 1173 52.45% 18.60% 28.95%+0.66 +12.2 38
2006-04-02 @ Grevenmacher L 1-439.2 1173 1182 28.95% 18.60% 52.45%-0.66 -12.2 40
2006-04-02 Jeunesse Esch W 2-033.0 1334 1221 64.20% 17.35% 18.45%+1.46 +6.6 51
2006-04-02 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-233.0 1221 1334 18.45% 17.35% 64.20%-1.46 -6.6 44
2006-04-02 Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 1-154.2 823 1056 21.70% 17.88% 60.42%-1.22 +1.5 5
2006-04-02 @ Avenir Beggen D 1-154.2 1056 823 60.42% 17.88% 21.70%+1.22 -1.5 34
2006-04-02 Rumelange W 1-035.5 992 913 60.66% 17.85% 21.49%+1.20 +4.0 23
2006-04-02 @ Victoria Rosport L 0-135.5 913 992 21.49% 17.85% 60.66%-1.20 -4.0 12
2006-04-02 UN Kaerjeng W 2-143.8 1054 1073 48.80% 18.78% 32.41%+0.44 +5.5 32
2006-04-02 @ CS Petange L 1-243.8 1073 1054 32.41% 18.78% 48.80%-0.44 -5.5 34
2006-04-02 Wiltz 71 W 2-038.0 1024 1068 45.34% 18.89% 35.77%+0.24 +11.9 26
2006-04-02 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-238.0 1068 1024 35.77% 18.89% 45.34%-0.24 -11.9 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2006-04-08 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-139.6 1214 1161 57.76% 18.17% 24.07%+1.00 +7.3 3
2006-04-08 @ Jeunesse Esch L 1-339.6 1161 1214 24.07% 18.17% 57.76%-1.00 -7.3 0
2006-04-08 Grevenmacher D 0-051.3 1340 1195 67.28% 16.81% 15.91%+1.71 -2.3 1
2006-04-08 @ F91 Dudelange D 0-051.3 1195 1340 15.91% 16.81% 67.28%-1.71 +2.3 1
2006-04-08 Racing FC Union Luxembourg D 1-154.0 1056 1054 51.54% 18.65% 29.81%+0.60 -0.8 1
2006-04-08 @ Wiltz 71 D 1-154.0 1054 1056 29.81% 18.65% 51.54%-0.60 +0.8 1
2006-04-08 Swift Hesperange D 1-153.9 909 1036 33.80% 18.83% 47.36%-0.40 +0.5 1
2006-04-08 @ Rumelange D 1-153.9 1036 909 47.36% 18.83% 33.80%+0.40 -0.5 1
2006-04-08 UN Kaerjeng W 3-034.8 1059 1067 50.26% 18.72% 31.02%+0.52 +15.4 3
2006-04-08 @ CS Petange L 0-334.8 1067 1059 31.02% 18.72% 50.26%-0.52 -15.4 0
2006-04-08 Victoria Rosport L 1-438.9 824 996 28.24% 18.55% 53.21%-0.74 -11.9 0
2006-04-08 @ Avenir Beggen W 4-138.9 996 824 53.21% 18.55% 28.24%+0.74 +11.9 3
2006-04-22 Avenir Beggen W 2-028.7 1075 812 76.34% 14.46% 9.20%+2.62 +3.3 6
2006-04-22 @ CS Petange L 0-228.7 812 1075 9.20% 14.46% 76.34%-2.62 -3.3 0
2006-04-22 Grevenmacher W 2-038.1 1154 1197 45.50% 18.89% 35.61%+0.25 +11.9 3
2006-04-22 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-238.1 1197 1154 35.61% 18.89% 45.50%-0.25 -11.9 1
2006-04-22 Jeunesse Esch W 9-030.9 1338 1221 64.55% 17.30% 18.16%+1.49 +26.5 4
2006-04-22 @ F91 Dudelange L 0-930.9 1221 1338 18.16% 17.30% 64.55%-1.49 -26.5 3
2006-04-22 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-037.0 1035 1055 48.69% 18.79% 32.53%+0.43 +11.0 4
2006-04-22 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-237.0 1055 1035 32.53% 18.79% 48.69%-0.43 -11.0 1
2006-04-22 Rumelange W 3-136.5 1055 909 67.32% 16.80% 15.88%+1.72 +4.9 4
2006-04-22 @ Wiltz 71 L 1-336.5 909 1055 15.88% 16.80% 67.32%-1.72 -4.9 1
2006-04-22 UN Kaerjeng D 0-050.1 1008 1052 45.35% 18.89% 35.76%+0.24 -0.4 4
2006-04-22 @ Victoria Rosport D 0-050.1 1052 1008 35.76% 18.89% 45.35%-0.24 +0.4 1
2006-04-28 CS Petange W 2-145.9 1007 1078 41.62% 18.94% 39.44%+0.04 +6.5 7
2006-04-28 @ Victoria Rosport L 1-245.9 1078 1007 39.44% 18.94% 41.62%-0.04 -6.5 6
2006-04-28 Wiltz 71 W 5-138.3 1046 1060 49.45% 18.75% 31.79%+0.48 +17.1 7
2006-04-28 @ Swift Hesperange L 1-538.3 1060 1046 31.79% 18.75% 49.45%-0.48 -17.1 4
2006-04-29 Rumelange W 3-136.7 1044 904 66.73% 16.91% 16.35%+1.67 +5.1 4
2006-04-29 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 1-336.7 904 1044 16.35% 16.91% 66.73%-1.67 -5.1 1
2006-04-30 Avenir Beggen L 0-150.7 1052 809 75.04% 14.88% 10.08%+2.47 -12.1 1
2006-04-30 @ UN Kaerjeng W 1-050.7 809 1052 10.08% 14.88% 75.04%-2.47 +12.1 3
2006-04-30 F91 Dudelange L 0-333.5 1166 1364 25.19% 18.29% 56.52%-0.95 -12.8 3
2006-04-30 @ Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-033.5 1364 1166 56.52% 18.29% 25.19%+0.95 +12.8 7
2006-04-30 Jeunesse Esch L 1-445.6 1185 1195 50.01% 18.73% 31.26%+0.51 -19.4 1
2006-04-30 @ Grevenmacher W 4-145.6 1195 1185 31.26% 18.73% 50.01%-0.51 +19.3 6
2006-05-03 Etzella Ettelbruck L 2-452.5 1166 1153 52.92% 18.57% 28.51%+0.68 -12.9 1
2006-05-03 @ Grevenmacher W 4-252.5 1153 1166 28.51% 18.57% 52.92%-0.68 +12.9 6
2006-05-03 Swift Hesperange W 3-035.1 1049 1063 49.42% 18.76% 31.83%+0.48 +15.7 7
2006-05-03 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg L 0-335.1 1063 1049 31.83% 18.76% 49.42%-0.48 -15.7 7
2006-05-04 F91 Dudelange L 1-440.1 1214 1377 29.25% 18.62% 52.14%-0.68 -12.3 6
2006-05-04 @ Jeunesse Esch W 4-140.1 1377 1214 52.14% 18.62% 29.25%+0.68 +12.3 10
2006-05-04 CS Petange W 1-047.7 821 1072 20.10% 17.64% 62.26%-1.35 +10.2 6
2006-05-04 @ Avenir Beggen L 0-147.7 1072 821 62.26% 17.64% 20.10%+1.35 -10.2 6
2006-05-04 Victoria Rosport D 3-363.4 1040 1014 54.61% 18.45% 26.94%+0.79 -0.7 2
2006-05-04 @ UN Kaerjeng D 3-363.4 1014 1040 26.94% 18.45% 54.61%-0.79 +0.7 8
2006-05-04 Wiltz 71 L 0-335.0 899 1043 31.62% 18.75% 49.64%-0.53 -15.6 1
2006-05-04 @ Rumelange W 3-035.0 1043 899 49.64% 18.75% 31.62%+0.53 +15.6 7
2006-05-06 Swift Hesperange W 2-035.8 1059 1048 52.71% 18.58% 28.71%+0.67 +9.9 10
2006-05-06 @ Wiltz 71 L 0-235.8 1048 1059 28.71% 18.58% 52.71%-0.67 -9.9 7
2006-05-07 Etzella Ettelbruck W 3-241.9 1390 1166 73.65% 15.29% 11.05%+2.32 +1.9 13
2006-05-07 @ F91 Dudelange L 2-341.9 1166 1390 11.05% 15.29% 73.65%-2.32 -1.9 6
2006-05-07 Grevenmacher W 1-036.7 1202 1153 57.31% 18.22% 24.47%+0.96 +4.6 9
2006-05-07 @ Jeunesse Esch L 0-136.7 1153 1202 24.47% 18.22% 57.31%-0.96 -4.6 1
2006-05-07 Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 2-043.4 884 1065 27.15% 18.46% 54.39%-0.82 +17.0 4
2006-05-07 @ Rumelange L 0-243.4 1065 884 54.39% 18.46% 27.15%+0.82 -17.0 7
2006-05-07 UN Kaerjeng W 3-256.1 831 1040 24.19% 18.19% 57.63%-1.03 +8.5 9
2006-05-07 @ Avenir Beggen L 2-356.1 1040 831 57.63% 18.19% 24.19%+1.03 -8.5 2
2006-05-07 Victoria Rosport D 1-154.1 1061 1014 57.06% 18.24% 24.70%+0.95 -1.2 7
2006-05-07 @ CS Petange D 1-154.1 1014 1061 24.70% 18.24% 57.06%-0.95 +1.2 9
2006-05-14 Avenir Beggen L 0-247.4 1016 840 69.91% 16.25% 13.84%+1.95 -21.5 9
2006-05-14 @ Victoria Rosport W 2-047.4 840 1016 13.84% 16.25% 69.91%-1.95 +21.5 12
2006-05-14 F91 Dudelange W 4-149.2 1148 1391 20.76% 17.74% 61.50%-1.30 +23.4 4
2006-05-14 @ Grevenmacher L 1-449.2 1391 1148 61.50% 17.74% 20.76%+1.30 -23.4 13
2006-05-14 Jeunesse Esch W 2-038.1 1164 1206 45.59% 18.88% 35.53%+0.26 +11.9 9
2006-05-14 @ Etzella Ettelbruck L 0-238.1 1206 1164 35.53% 18.88% 45.59%-0.26 -11.9 9
2006-05-14 Rumelange W 2-031.6 1038 901 66.50% 16.96% 16.54%+1.65 +5.9 10
2006-05-14 @ Swift Hesperange L 0-231.6 901 1038 16.54% 16.96% 66.50%-1.65 -5.9 4
2006-05-14 CS Petange D 3-363.3 1031 1060 47.44% 18.83% 33.73%+0.36 -0.3 3
2006-05-14 @ UN Kaerjeng D 3-363.3 1060 1031 33.73% 18.83% 47.44%-0.36 +0.3 8
2006-05-14 Wiltz 71 L 2-353.6 1048 1069 48.53% 18.79% 32.68%+0.42 -7.3 7
2006-05-14 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg W 3-253.6 1069 1048 32.68% 18.79% 48.53%-0.42 +7.3 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-04-30 10.08% Avenir Beggen 809 1 @ UN Kaerjeng 1052 0
2 2005-09-25 10.96% Wiltz 71 972 2 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1198 1
3 2006-05-14 13.84% Avenir Beggen 840 2 @ Victoria Rosport 1016 0
4 2006-02-19 14.45% Rumelange 902 2 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1068 0
5 2005-10-23 15.77% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1038 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1186 1
6 2005-10-26 15.99% CS Petange 1033 1 @ Jeunesse Esch 1178 0
7 2006-03-22 16.52% UN Kaerjeng 1050 3 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1187 1
8 2005-12-10 17.02% Grevenmacher 1181 2 @ F91 Dudelange 1312 1
9 2006-05-04 20.10% @ Avenir Beggen 821 1 CS Petange 1072 0
10 2005-11-20 20.73% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1078 1 F91 Dudelange 1322 0
11 2006-05-14 20.76% @ Grevenmacher 1148 4 F91 Dudelange 1391 1
12 2005-10-30 22.51% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1081 2 @ Grevenmacher 1149 0
13 2005-08-10 23.23% Victoria Rosport 1072 1 @ Grevenmacher 1133 0
14 2005-11-06 23.72% CS Petange 1043 3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1099 1
15 2006-05-07 24.19% @ Avenir Beggen 831 3 UN Kaerjeng 1040 2
16 2005-09-18 26.49% @ Swift Hesperange 1005 3 Grevenmacher 1192 1
17 2005-12-10 26.99% @ Wiltz 71 1023 4 Etzella Ettelbruck 1205 3
18 2006-05-07 27.15% @ Rumelange 884 2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1065 0
19 2005-08-10 28.13% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1016 2 @ CS Petange 1032 1
20 2006-05-03 28.51% Etzella Ettelbruck 1153 4 @ Grevenmacher 1166 2
21 2005-08-20 29.80% Wiltz 71 975 3 @ Rumelange 977 1
22 2006-04-30 31.26% Jeunesse Esch 1195 4 @ Grevenmacher 1185 1
23 2006-02-19 31.62% Jeunesse Esch 1195 2 @ Grevenmacher 1183 0
24 2005-10-26 32.04% @ UN Kaerjeng 1033 5 Grevenmacher 1174 1
25 2005-09-10 32.40% Rumelange 962 2 @ Avenir Beggen 944 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-08-20 54.71 Grevenmacher 11 1135 48.62% @ Avenir Beggen 0 998 32.59% 18.79%
2 2006-04-22 26.55 @ F91 Dudelange 9 1338 64.55% Jeunesse Esch 0 1221 18.16% 17.30%
3 2005-10-26 24.65 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 5 1056 50.39% Victoria Rosport 0 1063 30.90% 18.71%
4 2005-10-26 24.62 @ UN Kaerjeng 5 1033 32.04% Grevenmacher 1 1174 49.20% 18.77%
5 2006-05-14 23.36 @ Grevenmacher 4 1148 20.76% F91 Dudelange 1 1391 61.50% 17.74%
6 2005-11-12 22.78 Grevenmacher 6 1146 58.64% @ Rumelange 0 929 23.27% 18.08%
7 2006-03-12 21.73 Wiltz 71 5 1041 54.83% @ Avenir Beggen 0 856 26.74% 18.43%
8 2006-05-14 21.47 Avenir Beggen 2 840 13.84% @ Victoria Rosport 0 1016 69.91% 16.25%
9 2006-02-19 21.25 Rumelange 2 902 14.45% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0 1068 69.11% 16.43%
10 2005-10-16 20.48 @ Wiltz 71 3 983 37.26% Victoria Rosport 0 1085 43.82% 18.92%
11 2005-09-22 20.12 Swift Hesperange 5 1020 42.41% @ Avenir Beggen 1 929 38.66% 18.94%
12 2006-04-30 19.35 Jeunesse Esch 4 1195 31.26% @ Grevenmacher 1 1185 50.01% 18.73%
13 2005-10-30 18.49 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2 1081 22.51% @ Grevenmacher 0 1149 59.50% 17.99%
14 2005-09-18 18.24 @ Jeunesse Esch 3 1155 43.01% Etzella Ettelbruck 0 1216 38.06% 18.93%
15 2005-10-23 18.00 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3 1038 15.77% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1186 67.46% 16.78%
16 2006-03-22 17.77 UN Kaerjeng 3 1050 16.52% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1187 66.53% 16.95%
17 2006-04-28 17.08 @ Swift Hesperange 5 1046 49.45% Wiltz 71 1 1060 31.79% 18.75%
18 2006-05-07 17.03 @ Rumelange 2 884 27.15% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0 1065 54.39% 18.46%
19 2005-08-07 16.27 F91 Dudelange 3 1267 48.02% @ Jeunesse Esch 0 1135 33.17% 18.81%
20 2006-05-03 15.70 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3 1049 49.42% Swift Hesperange 0 1063 31.83% 18.76%
21 2006-02-19 15.69 Jeunesse Esch 2 1195 31.62% @ Grevenmacher 0 1183 49.63% 18.75%
22 2005-11-06 15.68 CS Petange 3 1043 23.72% @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 1099 58.15% 18.13%
23 2006-05-04 15.62 Wiltz 71 3 1043 49.64% @ Rumelange 0 899 31.62% 18.75%
24 2006-04-08 15.37 @ CS Petange 3 1059 50.26% UN Kaerjeng 0 1067 31.02% 18.72%
25 2005-11-06 15.29 Grevenmacher 4 1131 43.31% @ Victoria Rosport 1 1033 37.77% 18.93%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-05-04 63.4 @ UN Kaerjeng 3 1040 54.61% Victoria Rosport 3 1014 26.94% 18.45%
2 2006-05-14 63.3 @ UN Kaerjeng 3 1031 47.44% CS Petange 3 1060 33.73% 18.83%
3 2005-12-04 59.3 @ Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2 1088 59.34% Wiltz 71 2 1022 22.66% 18.01%
4 2005-10-17 59.1 @ UN Kaerjeng 2 1032 30.25% Etzella Ettelbruck 2 1186 51.08% 18.68%
5 2006-02-14 59.1 @ Swift Hesperange 2 1040 54.71% Victoria Rosport 2 1013 26.85% 18.44%
6 2006-02-19 59.0 @ Victoria Rosport 2 1014 47.74% Wiltz 71 2 1040 33.43% 18.82%
7 2005-12-10 58.5 @ Wiltz 71 4 1023 26.99% Etzella Ettelbruck 3 1205 54.56% 18.45%
8 2006-05-07 56.1 @ Avenir Beggen 3 831 24.19% UN Kaerjeng 2 1040 57.63% 18.19%
9 2006-02-19 55.5 @ Avenir Beggen 1 853 7.60% F91 Dudelange 1 1312 78.83% 13.57%
10 2005-09-25 55.1 Wiltz 71 2 972 10.96% @ Etzella Ettelbruck 1 1198 73.78% 15.25%
11 2006-03-26 54.9 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1223 71.97% Swift Hesperange 1 1022 12.28% 15.75%
12 2005-12-11 54.7 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1042 70.25% Avenir Beggen 1 862 13.58% 16.18%
13 2005-11-06 54.6 @ Wiltz 71 1 1014 15.83% F91 Dudelange 1 1317 67.38% 16.79%
14 2005-11-12 54.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 1 1169 67.91% Wiltz 71 1 1016 15.40% 16.68%
15 2005-09-24 54.3 @ Grevenmacher 1 1177 33.57% F91 Dudelange 1 1306 47.61% 18.83%
16 2006-04-02 54.2 @ Avenir Beggen 1 823 21.70% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 1056 60.42% 17.88%
17 2006-05-07 54.1 @ CS Petange 1 1061 57.06% Victoria Rosport 1 1014 24.70% 18.24%
18 2005-10-16 54.0 @ Swift Hesperange 1 1040 51.83% CS Petange 1 1036 29.54% 18.63%
19 2005-10-23 54.0 @ Victoria Rosport 1 1064 55.31% UN Kaerjeng 1 1032 26.30% 18.39%
20 2005-10-30 54.0 @ CS Petange 1 1044 55.23% Wiltz 71 1 1013 26.37% 18.40%
21 2005-11-06 54.0 @ UN Kaerjeng 1 1072 54.34% Swift Hesperange 1 1048 27.19% 18.47%
22 2006-04-08 54.0 @ Wiltz 71 1 1056 51.54% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 1054 29.81% 18.65%
23 2005-10-16 53.9 @ Rumelange 1 954 39.63% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1 1038 41.42% 18.94%
24 2005-11-12 53.9 @ Avenir Beggen 1 869 31.03% Victoria Rosport 1 1018 50.25% 18.72%
25 2006-03-19 53.9 @ Rumelange 1 919 37.10% Swift Hesperange 1 1022 43.98% 18.92%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-03-19 24.4 @ Jeunesse Esch 8 1217 83.10% Avenir Beggen 0 834 5.14% 11.76%
2 2005-11-06 24.9 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 5 1182 79.06% Avenir Beggen 0 875 7.46% 13.48%
3 2005-08-21 25.9 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1300 76.18% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0 1040 9.31% 14.51%
4 2006-03-26 26.3 F91 Dudelange 4 1327 75.57% @ Rumelange 0 919 9.72% 14.71%
5 2005-11-06 26.6 @ Jeunesse Esch 5 1159 73.45% Rumelange 0 938 11.20% 15.35%
6 2005-11-12 26.6 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1315 75.08% UN Kaerjeng 0 1071 10.05% 14.87%
7 2005-10-30 27.2 @ F91 Dudelange 6 1314 82.58% Rumelange 1 942 5.42% 12.00%
8 2006-03-26 27.4 @ UN Kaerjeng 3 1067 74.78% Avenir Beggen 0 828 10.26% 14.96%
9 2005-08-14 27.9 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 5 1192 69.29% CS Petange 0 1024 14.32% 16.39%
10 2005-11-20 28.0 @ Grevenmacher 2 1169 78.62% Avenir Beggen 0 870 7.73% 13.65%
11 2005-08-10 28.1 @ F91 Dudelange 2 1283 78.49% Wiltz 71 0 986 7.81% 13.70%
12 2005-09-18 28.1 @ F91 Dudelange 3 1300 73.12% Victoria Rosport 0 1083 11.44% 15.44%
13 2006-04-22 28.7 @ CS Petange 2 1075 76.34% Avenir Beggen 0 812 9.20% 14.46%
14 2005-08-14 29.0 @ Grevenmacher 4 1123 66.35% Rumelange 0 988 16.67% 16.99%
15 2005-10-16 29.7 @ F91 Dudelange 4 1305 83.78% Avenir Beggen 1 908 4.79% 11.43%
16 2005-12-17 30.1 @ Jeunesse Esch 4 1182 62.97% Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0 1082 19.49% 17.54%
17 2005-10-26 30.2 @ Wiltz 71 4 999 62.51% Avenir Beggen 0 903 19.89% 17.61%
18 2005-08-14 30.4 F91 Dudelange 4 1286 62.02% @ UN Kaerjeng 0 1038 20.30% 17.67%
19 2005-12-04 30.5 @ Grevenmacher 3 1171 64.87% Swift Hesperange 0 1052 17.89% 17.24%
20 2006-03-19 30.5 @ F91 Dudelange 5 1322 75.98% CS Petange 1 1065 9.44% 14.58%
21 2006-04-22 30.9 @ F91 Dudelange 9 1338 64.55% Jeunesse Esch 0 1221 18.16% 17.30%
22 2005-11-12 31.2 Grevenmacher 6 1146 58.64% @ Rumelange 0 929 23.27% 18.08%
23 2005-12-11 31.2 @ Jeunesse Esch 2 1177 68.00% Victoria Rosport 0 1023 15.33% 16.67%
24 2006-05-14 31.6 @ Swift Hesperange 2 1038 66.50% Rumelange 0 901 16.54% 16.96%
25 2006-03-12 31.8 @ Etzella Ettelbruck 4 1191 76.72% Rumelange 1 923 8.95% 14.33%