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1977-78 Maltese First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valletta

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hibernians

4.66 points above expected

26 points · 21.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vittoriosa Stars

6.38 points below expected

4 points · 10.38 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 18 12 4 2 28 44 6 +38 24.04 +3.96
2 Hibernians 18 11 4 3 26 39 14 +25 21.34 +4.66
3 Sliema Wanderers 18 8 8 2 24 28 14 +14 23.70 +0.30
4 Floriana 18 9 5 4 23 34 13 +21 24.47 -1.47
5 Hamrun Spartans 18 8 6 4 22 27 13 +14 21.42 +0.58
6 Msida St. Joseph 18 5 7 6 17 19 34 -15 13.72 +3.28
7 Marsa 18 5 5 8 15 20 27 -7 16.06 -1.06
8 St. Georges 18 3 7 8 13 17 31 -14 12.58 +0.42
9 Birkirkara 18 3 2 13 8 11 38 -27 12.29 -4.29
10 Vittoriosa Stars 18 1 2 15 4 9 58 -49 10.38 -6.38

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hibernians 26 21.34 +4.66
2 Valletta 28 24.04 +3.96
3 Msida St. Joseph 17 13.72 +3.28
4 Hamrun Spartans 22 21.42 +0.58
5 St. Georges 13 12.58 +0.42

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vittoriosa Stars 4 10.38 -6.38
2 Birkirkara 8 12.29 -4.29
3 Floriana 23 24.47 -1.47
4 Marsa 15 16.06 -1.06
5 Sliema Wanderers 24 23.70 +0.30

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valletta 1292 28 +9 7 6.6 +0.4
Hibernians 1221 26 +47 9 7.5 +1.5
Sliema Wanderers 1217 24 +1 6 6.6 -0.6
Floriana 1312 23 +2 8 7.7 +0.3
Hamrun Spartans 1128 20 -18 4 5.9 -1.9
Msida St. Joseph 963 17 +13 5 3.4 +1.6
Marsa 998 15 -41 1 3.4 -2.4
St. Georges 921 13 -2 3 2.8 +0.2
Birkirkara 900 8 -15 3 3.0 +0.0
Vittoriosa Stars 815 4 -4 3 3.0 +0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB MAR MSJ SW SG VAL VS
Birkirkara —
1-0-1
0.68
0-1-1
1.45
0-0-2
1.47
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
2.68
0-1-1
1.34
1-0-1
2.44
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
3.44
Floriana
1-0-1
4.88
 —
0-0-2
4.08
0-1-1
3.89
1-1-0
4.22
1-1-0
4.60
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
3.26
2-0-0
4.69
Hamrun Spartans
1-1-0
3.99
2-0-0
1.36
 —
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
3.46
0-2-0
1.92
1-1-0
3.89
0-1-1
1.63
2-0-0
4.34
Hibernians
2-0-0
3.97
1-1-0
1.54
2-0-0
3.13
 —
2-0-0
3.73
1-1-0
4.27
0-0-2
2.27
1-1-0
4.19
0-1-1
1.99
2-0-0
4.68
Marsa
2-0-0
3.26
0-1-1
1.23
1-0-1
2.21
0-0-2
1.69
 —
0-1-1
3.42
0-1-1
1.31
1-1-0
3.55
0-0-2
1.55
1-1-0
3.49
Msida St. Joseph
2-0-0
2.73
0-1-1
0.91
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
1.19
1-1-0
2.00
 —
1-0-1
0.97
0-2-0
2.74
0-0-2
1.24
1-1-0
3.34
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
4.13
0-1-1
2.34
0-2-0
3.50
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
4.14
1-0-1
4.52
 —
1-1-0
4.48
0-2-0
2.22
2-0-0
4.56
St. Georges
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
0.85
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
1.27
0-1-1
1.87
0-2-0
2.66
0-1-1
1.01
 —
0-0-2
0.90
2-0-0
2.88
Valletta
2-0-0
3.87
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.22
0-2-0
3.19
2-0-0
4.61
 —
2-0-0
4.85
Vittoriosa Stars
1-0-1
1.97
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
0.84
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
2.53
0-0-2
0.71
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +6.5
Allowed 0.91 -4.8
Differential 0.96 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%8.89%5.00%2.78%2.78%3.33%32.78%
18.89%12.22%5.00%3.89%1.11%1.11%32.22%
25.00%5.00%5.56%0.56%0.56%—16.67%
32.78%3.89%0.56%—0.56%—7.78%
42.78%1.11%0.56%0.56%——5.00%
5+3.33%1.11%———1.11%5.56%
Total32.78%32.22%16.67%7.78%5.00%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.64 1.64 2.55
CV 1.20 1.20 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min -1 -1 -11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%16.67%—50.00%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%16.67%22.22%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.11 -1.50
SD 0.70 1.45 1.69
CV 1.14 0.69 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%————5.56%11.11%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.67 +1.17
SD 1.95 0.84 2.09
CV 1.06 1.26 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%————38.89%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%————5.56%11.11%
Total38.89%44.44%5.56%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.67 +0.78
SD 2.01 0.91 1.96
CV 1.39 1.36 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.78 +1.39
SD 1.65 0.94 2.15
CV 0.76 1.21 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.50 -0.39
SD 1.08 1.20 1.54
CV 0.97 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%——5.56%27.78%
122.22%11.11%—11.11%——44.44%
2——22.22%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%38.89%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.89 -0.83
SD 0.87 2.49 2.83
CV 0.83 1.32 —
Max 3 11 +2
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%——5.56%—33.33%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%55.56%——5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.78 +0.78
SD 1.62 0.94 1.90
CV 1.04 1.21 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
1—16.67%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.72 -0.78
SD 0.80 1.36 1.63
CV 0.85 0.79 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
111.11%11.11%————22.22%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total66.67%33.33%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.33 +2.11
SD 2.75 0.49 2.89
CV 1.12 1.46 —
Max 11 1 +11
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%27.78%61.11%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%5.56%11.11%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 3.22 -2.72
SD 0.71 2.34 2.61
CV 1.41 0.73 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Floriana 1312 23 24.47 -1.47 28.0% 17 19 22 25 27 29 30
Valletta 1292 28 24.04 +3.96 94.0% 15 18 22 24 26 29 33
Hibernians 1221 26 21.34 +4.66 99.0% 14 16 19 22 23 26 27
Sliema Wanderers 1217 24 23.70 +0.30 59.0% 16 19 22 23 26 28 31
Hamrun Spartans 1128 22 21.42 +0.58 76.0% 14 17 19 22 23 26 28
Marsa 998 15 16.06 -1.06 41.0% 10 11 14 16 18 21 24
Msida St. Joseph 963 17 13.72 +3.28 87.0% 1 9 11 13 16 19 23
St. Georges 921 13 12.58 +0.42 59.0% 5 6 10 13 15 18 19
Birkirkara 900 8 12.29 -4.29 11.0% 7 7 11 12 14 17 22
Vittoriosa Stars 815 4 10.38 -6.38 3.0% 3 5 8 11 12 15 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
Clear Edge
38.89%27.78%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
146 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.24 goals
Road-Tilted
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
26%
Valletta, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.47 * Some Luck: 2.47 to 3.7 * Lucky: 3.7 to 4.93 * Wild Swing: 4.93 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.95 * Close: 0.95 to 1.43 * Off: 1.43 to 1.91 * Way Off: 1.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.42 points
Some Luck
03.088
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.192.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Hibernians
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Vittoriosa Stars
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 178.95
2.21
Strong Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.27
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.78
Strong Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.20
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.155
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valletta26.00%31.00%22.00%12.00%7.00%2.00%————
Hibernians5.00%13.00%21.00%28.00%24.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%——
Sliema Wanderers27.00%16.00%19.00%18.00%15.00%5.00%————
Floriana37.00%26.00%14.00%13.00%8.00%2.00%————
Hamrun Spartans5.00%14.00%21.00%22.00%27.00%10.00%—1.00%——
Msida St. Joseph———3.00%3.00%17.00%21.00%28.00%15.00%13.00%
Marsa——3.00%2.00%11.00%41.00%22.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%
St. Georges————3.00%13.00%25.00%24.00%13.00%22.00%
Birkirkara———2.00%1.00%4.00%19.00%21.00%38.00%15.00%
Vittoriosa Stars————1.00%1.00%10.00%15.00%26.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Marsa 89.00% 11.00%
Msida St. Joseph 72.00% 28.00%
St. Georges 65.00% 35.00%
Birkirkara 47.00% 53.00%
Vittoriosa Stars 27.00% 73.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1977-09-11 Sliema Wanderers L 1-440.1 1048 1203 20.46% 28.96% 50.58%-0.91 -17.6 0
1977-09-11 @ Birkirkara W 4-140.1 1203 1048 50.58% 28.96% 20.46%+0.91 +17.6 2
1977-09-11 Valletta W 1-037.4 1281 1154 54.71% 28.72% 16.57%+1.03 +6.5 2
1977-09-11 @ Floriana L 0-137.4 1154 1281 16.57% 28.72% 54.71%-1.03 -6.5 0
1977-09-11 Hibernians L 0-142.0 1059 1118 31.67% 29.73% 38.60%-0.25 -10.6 0
1977-09-11 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-042.0 1118 1059 38.60% 29.73% 31.67%+0.25 +10.6 2
1977-09-11 St. Georges D 1-150.5 980 943 44.80% 29.62% 25.58%+0.41 -1.2 1
1977-09-11 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-150.5 943 980 25.58% 29.62% 44.80%-0.41 +1.2 1
1977-09-11 Marsa L 1-246.7 960 1020 31.67% 29.73% 38.60%-0.25 -10.0 0
1977-09-11 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 2-146.7 1020 960 38.60% 29.73% 31.67%+0.25 +10.0 2
1977-09-25 Sliema Wanderers D 0-046.9 1288 1221 48.39% 29.40% 22.21%+0.62 -1.9 3
1977-09-25 @ Floriana D 0-046.9 1221 1288 22.21% 29.40% 48.39%-0.62 +1.9 3
1977-09-25 St. Georges W 3-032.7 1129 944 59.79% 27.77% 12.44%+1.43 +13.8 4
1977-09-25 @ Hibernians L 0-332.7 944 1129 12.44% 27.77% 59.79%-1.43 -13.8 1
1977-09-25 Hamrun Spartans W 1-042.3 1030 1048 37.56% 29.79% 32.65%+0.04 +10.9 4
1977-09-25 @ Marsa L 0-142.3 1048 1030 32.65% 29.79% 37.56%-0.04 -10.9 0
1977-09-25 Vittoriosa Stars W 3-143.7 978 950 43.72% 29.66% 26.62%+0.35 +15.3 3
1977-09-25 @ Msida St. Joseph L 1-343.7 950 978 26.62% 29.66% 43.72%-0.35 -15.3 0
1977-09-25 Birkirkara W 4-033.8 1148 1030 53.79% 28.84% 17.36%+0.97 +24.0 2
1977-09-25 @ Valletta L 0-433.8 1030 1148 17.36% 28.84% 53.79%-0.97 -24.0 0
1977-10-09 Birkirkara W 4-033.2 1143 1006 55.64% 28.57% 15.79%+1.10 +22.2 6
1977-10-09 @ Hibernians L 0-433.2 1006 1143 15.79% 28.57% 55.64%-1.10 -22.2 0
1977-10-09 Valletta L 0-336.4 1041 1172 23.02% 29.24% 47.74%-0.74 -23.0 4
1977-10-09 @ Marsa W 3-036.4 1172 1041 47.74% 29.24% 23.02%+0.74 +23.0 4
1977-10-09 Hamrun Spartans L 0-241.0 994 1037 33.95% 29.77% 36.27%-0.14 -21.1 3
1977-10-09 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-041.0 1037 994 36.27% 29.77% 33.95%+0.14 +21.1 2
1977-10-09 Sliema Wanderers L 1-534.8 930 1223 10.52% 26.53% 62.96%-1.85 -12.7 1
1977-10-09 @ St. Georges W 5-134.8 1223 930 62.96% 26.53% 10.52%+1.85 +12.6 5
1977-10-09 Floriana L 0-729.6 935 1286 7.93% 25.12% 66.95%-2.25 -19.4 0
1977-10-09 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 7-029.6 1286 935 66.95% 25.12% 7.93%+2.25 +19.4 5
1977-10-16 Valletta L 0-235.1 984 1195 15.66% 28.15% 56.19%-1.29 -11.5 0
1977-10-16 @ Birkirkara W 2-035.1 1195 984 56.19% 28.15% 15.66%+1.29 +11.5 6
1977-10-16 Hibernians L 1-243.4 1018 1165 21.31% 29.06% 49.63%-0.85 -7.4 4
1977-10-16 @ Marsa W 2-143.4 1165 1018 49.63% 29.06% 21.31%+0.85 +7.4 8
1977-10-16 Floriana D 2-256.7 973 1305 8.66% 25.58% 65.75%-2.12 +3.1 4
1977-10-16 @ Msida St. Joseph D 2-256.7 1305 973 65.75% 25.58% 8.66%+2.12 -3.1 6
1977-10-16 Hamrun Spartans L 1-440.5 918 1058 21.97% 29.13% 48.90%-0.81 -18.7 1
1977-10-16 @ St. Georges W 4-140.5 1058 918 48.90% 29.13% 21.97%+0.81 +18.7 4
1977-10-16 Sliema Wanderers L 0-430.5 915 1235 9.21% 25.89% 64.90%-2.04 -13.3 0
1977-10-16 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 4-030.5 1235 915 64.90% 25.89% 9.21%+2.04 +13.3 7
1977-10-23 Marsa L 0-340.0 972 1011 34.65% 29.78% 35.56%-0.10 -31.1 0
1977-10-23 @ Birkirkara W 3-040.0 1011 972 35.56% 29.78% 34.65%+0.10 +31.1 6
1977-10-23 Floriana W 1-049.4 1077 1302 14.59% 27.89% 57.51%-1.39 +17.2 6
1977-10-23 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-149.4 1302 1077 57.51% 27.89% 14.59%+1.39 -17.2 6
1977-10-23 Vittoriosa Stars W 1-032.5 1249 902 70.32% 24.00% 5.68%+2.54 +2.3 9
1977-10-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-132.5 902 1249 5.68% 24.00% 70.32%-2.54 -2.3 0
1977-10-23 Hibernians D 2-256.2 899 1173 11.53% 26.94% 61.53%-1.72 +2.6 2
1977-10-23 @ St. Georges D 2-256.2 1173 899 61.53% 26.94% 11.53%+1.72 -2.6 9
1977-10-23 Msida St. Joseph W 2-033.0 1206 976 63.19% 26.86% 9.95%+1.74 +7.7 8
1977-10-23 @ Valletta L 0-233.0 976 1206 9.95% 26.86% 63.19%-1.74 -7.7 4
1977-11-07 Hibernians L 1-339.5 941 1170 14.35% 27.83% 57.82%-1.41 -9.2 0
1977-11-07 @ Birkirkara W 3-139.5 1170 941 57.82% 27.83% 14.35%+1.41 +9.2 11
1977-11-07 Floriana D 1-151.2 1042 1285 13.36% 27.56% 59.08%-1.51 +3.2 7
1977-11-07 @ Marsa D 1-151.2 1285 1042 59.08% 27.56% 13.36%+1.51 -3.2 7
1977-11-07 Valletta L 0-1132.2 968 1214 13.20% 27.51% 59.29%-1.53 -49.1 4
1977-11-07 @ Msida St. Joseph W 11-032.2 1214 968 59.29% 27.51% 13.20%+1.53 +49.1 10
1977-11-07 Hamrun Spartans D 1-151.0 1251 1094 57.44% 28.26% 14.30%+1.24 -3.0 10
1977-11-07 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.0 1094 1251 14.30% 28.26% 57.44%-1.24 +3.0 7
1977-11-07 Vittoriosa Stars W 2-039.8 901 900 40.24% 29.76% 30.00%+0.17 +19.3 4
1977-11-07 @ St. Georges L 0-239.8 900 901 30.00% 29.76% 40.24%-0.17 -19.3 0
1977-11-21 Marsa W 2-032.9 1282 1045 63.65% 26.72% 9.63%+1.79 +7.5 9
1977-11-21 @ Floriana L 0-232.9 1045 1282 9.63% 26.72% 63.65%-1.79 -7.5 7
1977-11-21 Birkirkara W 1-042.1 919 932 38.24% 29.79% 31.97%+0.07 +10.7 6
1977-11-21 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-142.1 932 919 31.97% 29.79% 38.24%-0.07 -10.7 0
1977-11-21 Hibernians W 2-144.0 1248 1179 48.61% 29.38% 22.01%+0.63 +7.7 12
1977-11-21 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.0 1179 1248 22.01% 29.38% 48.61%-0.63 -7.7 11
1977-11-21 Hamrun Spartans D 1-151.1 1263 1097 58.21% 28.11% 13.68%+1.30 -3.1 11
1977-11-21 @ Valletta D 1-151.1 1097 1263 13.68% 28.11% 58.21%-1.30 +3.1 8
1977-11-21 St. Georges L 1-247.5 880 921 34.38% 29.78% 35.84%-0.12 -10.6 0
1977-11-21 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 2-147.5 921 880 35.84% 29.78% 34.38%+0.12 +10.6 6
1977-12-05 Hamrun Spartans L 1-340.9 921 1100 18.29% 28.65% 53.06%-1.07 -11.4 0
1977-12-05 @ Birkirkara W 3-140.9 1100 921 53.06% 28.65% 18.29%+1.07 +11.4 10
1977-12-05 Vittoriosa Stars D 1-150.9 1037 870 58.34% 28.08% 13.57%+1.31 -3.1 8
1977-12-05 @ Marsa D 1-150.9 870 1037 13.57% 28.08% 58.34%-1.31 +3.1 1
1977-12-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.4 930 1256 8.94% 25.74% 65.31%-2.08 -6.8 6
1977-12-05 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-032.4 1256 930 65.31% 25.74% 8.94%+2.08 +6.8 14
1977-12-05 Floriana D 1-151.9 931 1289 7.67% 24.95% 67.38%-2.30 +4.3 7
1977-12-05 @ St. Georges D 1-151.9 1289 931 67.38% 24.95% 7.67%+2.30 -4.3 10
1977-12-05 Hibernians W 1-038.6 1260 1171 50.77% 29.19% 20.03%+0.77 +7.6 13
1977-12-05 @ Valletta L 0-138.6 1171 1260 20.03% 29.19% 50.77%-0.77 -7.5 11
1977-12-19 Vittoriosa Stars W 4-238.5 1285 873 73.66% 22.17% 4.16%+2.99 +2.4 12
1977-12-19 @ Floriana L 2-438.5 873 1285 4.16% 22.17% 73.66%-2.99 -2.4 1
1977-12-19 Birkirkara D 0-047.0 1111 910 61.09% 27.45% 11.46%+1.54 -3.9 11
1977-12-19 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.0 910 1111 11.46% 27.45% 61.09%-1.54 +3.9 1
1977-12-19 Hibernians L 1-339.2 923 1164 13.51% 27.60% 58.89%-1.50 -8.8 6
1977-12-19 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-139.2 1164 923 58.89% 27.60% 13.51%+1.50 +8.8 13
1977-12-19 St. Georges D 1-152.0 1262 936 69.22% 24.53% 6.24%+2.40 -4.6 15
1977-12-19 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-152.0 936 1262 6.24% 24.53% 69.22%-2.40 +4.6 8
1977-12-19 Marsa W 2-139.4 1267 1034 63.38% 26.80% 9.82%+1.76 +3.8 15
1977-12-19 @ Valletta L 1-239.4 1034 1267 9.82% 26.80% 63.38%-1.76 -3.8 8
1978-01-09 Valletta D 0-046.7 1173 1271 26.70% 29.52% 43.78%-0.52 +1.2 14
1978-01-09 @ Hibernians D 0-046.7 1271 1173 43.78% 29.52% 26.70%+0.52 -1.2 16
1978-01-09 Birkirkara W 3-246.7 1030 914 53.70% 28.86% 17.44%+0.96 +6.0 10
1978-01-09 @ Marsa L 2-346.7 914 1030 17.44% 28.86% 53.70%-0.96 -6.0 1
1978-01-09 Floriana L 0-440.2 1258 1287 35.92% 29.79% 34.29%-0.04 -41.7 15
1978-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-040.2 1287 1258 34.29% 29.79% 35.92%+0.04 +41.7 14
1978-01-09 Msida St. Joseph D 2-255.4 940 914 43.47% 29.67% 26.86%+0.34 -0.8 9
1978-01-09 @ St. Georges D 2-255.4 914 940 26.86% 29.67% 43.47%-0.34 +0.8 7
1978-01-09 Hamrun Spartans L 0-732.1 871 1108 13.79% 27.68% 58.53%-1.47 -33.1 1
1978-01-09 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 7-032.1 1108 871 58.53% 27.68% 13.79%+1.47 +33.1 13
1978-01-23 Hamrun Spartans FL45.0 1329 1141 60.05% 27.71% 12.24%+1.45 +0.0 14
1978-01-23 @ Floriana FW45.0 1141 1329 12.24% 27.71% 60.05%-1.45 +0.0 15
1978-01-23 St. Georges W 1-042.9 908 940 35.57% 29.79% 34.64%-0.06 +11.4 3
1978-01-23 @ Birkirkara L 0-142.9 940 908 34.64% 29.79% 35.57%+0.06 -11.4 9
1978-01-23 Sliema Wanderers L 1-346.2 1174 1216 34.09% 29.78% 36.13%-0.13 -18.3 14
1978-01-23 @ Hibernians W 3-146.2 1216 1174 36.13% 29.78% 34.09%+0.13 +18.3 17
1978-01-23 Msida St. Joseph D 1-150.7 1036 915 54.18% 28.79% 17.03%+0.99 -2.5 11
1978-01-23 @ Marsa D 1-150.7 915 1036 17.03% 28.79% 54.18%-0.99 +2.5 8
1978-01-23 Vittoriosa Stars W 6-130.0 1270 837 74.64% 21.58% 3.78%+3.13 +5.3 18
1978-01-23 @ Valletta L 1-630.0 837 1270 3.78% 21.58% 74.64%-3.13 -5.3 1
1978-01-30 Hibernians D 1-151.4 1329 1156 58.84% 27.98% 13.18%+1.35 -3.2 15
1978-01-30 @ Floriana D 1-151.4 1156 1329 13.18% 27.98% 58.84%-1.35 +3.2 15
1978-01-30 St. Georges W 2-142.5 1034 928 52.59% 29.00% 18.41%+0.88 +6.6 13
1978-01-30 @ Marsa L 1-242.5 928 1034 18.41% 29.00% 52.59%-0.88 -6.6 9
1978-01-30 Msida St. Joseph L 0-151.6 1235 917 68.68% 24.78% 6.53%+2.34 -20.2 17
1978-01-30 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-051.6 917 1235 6.53% 24.78% 68.68%-2.34 +20.2 10
1978-01-30 Valletta L 0-527.9 832 1275 5.12% 22.62% 72.26%-2.88 -8.8 1
1978-01-30 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 5-027.9 1275 832 72.26% 22.62% 5.12%+2.88 +8.8 20
1978-02-06 Msida St. Joseph L 0-143.7 919 938 37.46% 29.79% 32.75%+0.03 -12.0 3
1978-02-06 @ Birkirkara W 1-043.7 938 919 32.75% 29.79% 37.46%-0.03 +12.0 12
1978-02-06 Vittoriosa Stars W 2-031.3 1141 823 68.69% 24.78% 6.53%+2.34 +5.0 17
1978-02-06 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-231.3 823 1141 6.53% 24.78% 68.69%-2.34 -5.0 1
1978-02-06 Floriana W 1-048.1 1159 1326 19.37% 28.81% 51.82%-0.99 +15.6 17
1978-02-06 @ Hibernians L 0-148.1 1326 1159 51.82% 28.81% 19.37%+0.99 -15.6 15
1978-02-06 Marsa D 0-046.5 922 1041 24.31% 29.35% 46.34%-0.66 +1.6 10
1978-02-06 @ St. Georges D 0-046.5 1041 922 46.34% 29.35% 24.31%+0.66 -1.6 14
1978-02-06 Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.0 1284 1214 48.72% 29.37% 21.91%+0.64 -1.7 21
1978-02-06 @ Valletta D 1-151.0 1214 1284 21.91% 29.37% 48.72%-0.64 +1.7 18
1978-02-20 Vittoriosa Stars W 1-038.3 907 818 50.80% 29.19% 20.01%+0.77 +7.5 5
1978-02-20 @ Birkirkara L 0-138.3 818 907 20.01% 29.19% 50.80%-0.77 -7.5 1
1978-02-20 St. Georges W 2-136.6 1310 923 72.43% 22.88% 4.68%+2.82 +1.8 17
1978-02-20 @ Floriana L 1-236.6 923 1310 4.68% 22.88% 72.43%-2.82 -1.8 10
1978-02-20 Sliema Wanderers D 0-046.5 1146 1216 30.26% 29.69% 40.05%-0.32 +0.7 18
1978-02-20 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-046.5 1216 1146 40.05% 29.69% 30.26%+0.32 -0.7 19
1978-02-20 Marsa W 3-034.1 1174 1039 55.48% 28.60% 15.92%+1.09 +17.1 19
1978-02-20 @ Hibernians L 0-334.1 1039 1174 15.92% 28.60% 55.48%-1.09 -17.1 14
1978-03-06 Hamrun Spartans W 1-039.9 1191 1146 45.81% 29.57% 24.62%+0.47 +8.9 21
1978-03-06 @ Hibernians L 0-139.9 1146 1191 24.62% 29.57% 45.81%-0.47 -8.9 18
1978-03-06 Marsa W 1-044.6 950 1022 30.00% 29.68% 40.32%-0.34 +12.7 14
1978-03-06 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-144.6 1022 950 40.32% 29.68% 30.00%+0.34 -12.7 14
1978-03-06 Floriana L 0-144.2 1282 1312 35.91% 29.79% 34.30%-0.04 -11.6 21
1978-03-06 @ Valletta W 1-044.2 1312 1282 34.30% 29.79% 35.91%+0.04 +11.6 19
1978-03-06 Birkirkara W 2-044.1 811 915 26.08% 29.48% 44.44%-0.55 +25.8 3
1978-03-06 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 0-244.1 915 811 44.44% 29.48% 26.08%+0.55 -25.8 5
1978-03-20 Msida St. Joseph W 3-135.6 1324 962 71.11% 23.60% 5.29%+2.64 +3.5 21
1978-03-20 @ Floriana L 1-335.6 962 1324 5.29% 23.60% 71.11%-2.64 -3.5 14
1978-03-20 Marsa W 4-349.2 1137 1009 54.81% 28.70% 16.49%+1.04 +5.6 20
1978-03-20 @ Hamrun Spartans L 3-449.2 1009 1137 16.49% 28.70% 54.81%-1.04 -5.6 14
1978-03-20 Vittoriosa Stars W 5-028.2 1200 837 71.23% 23.54% 5.23%+2.65 +9.2 23
1978-03-20 @ Hibernians L 0-528.2 837 1200 5.23% 23.54% 71.23%-2.65 -9.2 3
1978-03-20 Valletta D 0-046.7 1215 1271 32.27% 29.74% 37.98%-0.22 +0.4 20
1978-03-20 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-046.7 1271 1215 37.98% 29.74% 32.27%+0.22 -0.4 22
1978-03-20 Birkirkara W 2-145.0 921 889 44.28% 29.64% 26.08%+0.38 +8.7 12
1978-03-20 @ St. Georges L 1-245.0 889 921 26.08% 29.64% 44.28%-0.38 -8.7 5
1978-03-27 Birkirkara W 4-027.4 1327 880 75.31% 21.16% 3.53%+3.23 +4.8 23
1978-03-27 @ Floriana L 0-427.4 880 1327 3.53% 21.16% 75.31%-3.23 -4.8 5
1978-03-27 Sliema Wanderers L 1-340.0 1004 1216 15.57% 28.13% 56.30%-1.30 -9.9 14
1978-03-27 @ Marsa W 3-140.0 1216 1004 56.30% 28.13% 15.57%+1.30 +9.9 22
1978-03-27 Valletta L 0-330.8 930 1270 8.35% 25.39% 66.26%-2.18 -9.2 12
1978-03-27 @ St. Georges W 3-030.8 1270 930 66.26% 25.39% 8.35%+2.18 +9.2 24
1978-03-27 Msida St. Joseph D 0-046.5 827 959 22.94% 29.23% 47.82%-0.74 +1.8 4
1978-03-27 @ Vittoriosa Stars D 0-046.5 959 827 47.82% 29.23% 22.94%+0.74 -1.8 15
1978-04-03 Floriana W 2-156.9 875 1332 4.80% 22.24% 72.96%-2.97 +19.9 7
1978-04-03 @ Birkirkara L 1-256.9 1332 875 72.96% 22.24% 4.80%+2.97 -19.8 23
1978-04-03 Msida St. Joseph D 2-255.9 1143 957 59.87% 27.75% 12.38%+1.44 -2.5 21
1978-04-03 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-255.9 957 1143 12.38% 27.75% 59.87%-1.44 +2.5 16
1978-04-03 Marsa D 0-047.3 1226 994 63.30% 26.83% 9.88%+1.75 -4.3 23
1978-04-03 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.3 994 1226 9.88% 26.83% 63.30%-1.75 +4.3 15
1978-04-03 St. Georges W 2-030.7 1280 921 70.97% 23.67% 5.36%+2.62 +4.1 26
1978-04-03 @ Valletta L 0-230.7 921 1280 5.36% 23.67% 70.97%-2.62 -4.1 12
1978-04-03 Hibernians L 0-628.9 829 1210 6.89% 24.36% 68.75%-2.45 -14.5 4
1978-04-03 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 6-028.9 1210 829 68.75% 24.36% 6.89%+2.45 +14.5 25
1978-04-17 Valletta L 0-139.1 1141 1284 21.72% 29.11% 49.17%-0.82 -8.0 21
1978-04-17 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-039.1 1284 1141 49.17% 29.11% 21.72%+0.82 +8.0 28
1978-04-17 Msida St. Joseph D 2-256.5 1224 959 65.49% 26.09% 8.42%+1.97 -3.1 26
1978-04-17 @ Hibernians D 2-256.5 959 1224 8.42% 26.09% 65.49%-1.97 +3.1 17
1978-04-17 Birkirkara D 1-152.0 1221 895 69.20% 24.54% 6.25%+2.40 -4.6 24
1978-04-17 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-152.0 895 1221 6.25% 24.54% 69.20%-2.40 +4.6 8
1978-05-01 St. Georges D 0-047.1 1133 917 62.14% 27.17% 10.69%+1.64 -4.1 22
1978-05-01 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.1 917 1133 10.69% 27.17% 62.14%-1.64 +4.1 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1978-04-03 4.80% @ Birkirkara 875 2 Floriana 1332 1
2 1978-01-30 6.53% Msida St. Joseph 917 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1235 0
3 1977-10-23 14.59% @ Hamrun Spartans 1077 1 Floriana 1302 0
4 1978-02-06 19.37% @ Hibernians 1159 1 Floriana 1326 0
5 1978-03-06 26.08% @ Vittoriosa Stars 811 2 Birkirkara 915 0
6 1978-03-06 30.00% @ Msida St. Joseph 950 1 Marsa 1022 0
7 1978-02-06 32.75% Msida St. Joseph 938 1 @ Birkirkara 919 0
8 1978-01-09 34.29% Floriana 1287 4 @ Sliema Wanderers 1258 0
9 1978-03-06 34.30% Floriana 1312 1 @ Valletta 1282 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-11-07 49.11 Valletta 11 1214 59.29% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 968 13.20% 27.51%
2 1978-01-09 41.67 Floriana 4 1287 34.29% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1258 35.92% 29.79%
3 1978-01-09 33.12 Hamrun Spartans 7 1108 58.53% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 871 13.79% 27.68%
4 1977-10-23 31.09 Marsa 3 1011 35.56% @ Birkirkara 0 972 34.65% 29.78%
5 1978-03-06 25.81 @ Vittoriosa Stars 2 811 26.08% Birkirkara 0 915 44.44% 29.48%
6 1977-09-25 24.04 @ Valletta 4 1148 53.79% Birkirkara 0 1030 17.36% 28.84%
7 1977-10-09 22.96 Valletta 3 1172 47.74% @ Marsa 0 1041 23.02% 29.24%
8 1977-10-09 22.20 @ Hibernians 4 1143 55.64% Birkirkara 0 1006 15.79% 28.57%
9 1977-10-09 21.10 Hamrun Spartans 2 1037 36.27% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 994 33.95% 29.77%
10 1978-01-30 20.25 Msida St. Joseph 1 917 6.53% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1235 68.68% 24.78%
11 1978-04-03 19.85 @ Birkirkara 2 875 4.80% Floriana 1 1332 72.96% 22.24%
12 1977-10-09 19.41 Floriana 7 1286 66.95% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 935 7.93% 25.12%
13 1977-11-07 19.32 @ St. Georges 2 901 40.24% Vittoriosa Stars 0 900 30.00% 29.76%
14 1977-10-16 18.67 Hamrun Spartans 4 1058 48.90% @ St. Georges 1 918 21.97% 29.13%
15 1978-01-23 18.32 Sliema Wanderers 3 1216 36.13% @ Hibernians 1 1174 34.09% 29.78%
16 1977-09-11 17.64 Sliema Wanderers 4 1203 50.58% @ Birkirkara 1 1048 20.46% 28.96%
17 1977-10-23 17.17 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1077 14.59% Floriana 0 1302 57.51% 27.89%
18 1978-02-20 17.11 @ Hibernians 3 1174 55.48% Marsa 0 1039 15.92% 28.60%
19 1978-02-06 15.61 @ Hibernians 1 1159 19.37% Floriana 0 1326 51.82% 28.81%
20 1977-09-25 15.33 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 978 43.72% Vittoriosa Stars 1 950 26.62% 29.66%
21 1978-04-03 14.47 Hibernians 6 1210 68.75% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 829 6.89% 24.36%
22 1977-09-25 13.77 @ Hibernians 3 1129 59.79% St. Georges 0 944 12.44% 27.77%
23 1977-10-16 13.33 Sliema Wanderers 4 1235 64.90% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 915 9.21% 25.89%
24 1978-03-06 12.68 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 950 30.00% Marsa 0 1022 40.32% 29.68%
25 1977-10-09 12.66 Sliema Wanderers 5 1223 62.96% @ St. Georges 1 930 10.52% 26.53%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-04-03 56.9 @ Birkirkara 2 875 4.80% Floriana 1 1332 72.96% 22.24%
2 1977-10-16 56.7 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 973 8.66% Floriana 2 1305 65.75% 25.58%
3 1978-04-17 56.5 @ Hibernians 2 1224 65.49% Msida St. Joseph 2 959 8.42% 26.09%
4 1977-10-23 56.2 @ St. Georges 2 899 11.53% Hibernians 2 1173 61.53% 26.94%
5 1978-04-03 55.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1143 59.87% Msida St. Joseph 2 957 12.38% 27.75%
6 1978-01-09 55.4 @ St. Georges 2 940 43.47% Msida St. Joseph 2 914 26.86% 29.67%
7 1977-12-19 52.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1262 69.22% St. Georges 1 936 6.24% 24.53%
8 1978-04-17 52.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1221 69.20% Birkirkara 1 895 6.25% 24.54%
9 1977-12-05 51.9 @ St. Georges 1 931 7.67% Floriana 1 1289 67.38% 24.95%
10 1978-01-30 51.6 Msida St. Joseph 1 917 6.53% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1235 68.68% 24.78%
11 1978-01-30 51.4 @ Floriana 1 1329 58.84% Hibernians 1 1156 13.18% 27.98%
12 1977-11-07 51.2 @ Marsa 1 1042 13.36% Floriana 1 1285 59.08% 27.56%
13 1977-11-21 51.1 @ Valletta 1 1263 58.21% Hamrun Spartans 1 1097 13.68% 28.11%
14 1977-11-07 51.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1251 57.44% Hamrun Spartans 1 1094 14.30% 28.26%
15 1978-02-06 51.0 @ Valletta 1 1284 48.72% Sliema Wanderers 1 1214 21.91% 29.37%
16 1977-12-05 50.9 @ Marsa 1 1037 58.34% Vittoriosa Stars 1 870 13.57% 28.08%
17 1978-01-23 50.7 @ Marsa 1 1036 54.18% Msida St. Joseph 1 915 17.03% 28.79%
18 1977-09-11 50.5 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 980 44.80% St. Georges 1 943 25.58% 29.62%
19 1977-10-23 49.4 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1077 14.59% Floriana 0 1302 57.51% 27.89%
20 1978-03-20 49.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1137 54.81% Marsa 3 1009 16.49% 28.70%
21 1978-02-06 48.1 @ Hibernians 1 1159 19.37% Floriana 0 1326 51.82% 28.81%
22 1977-11-21 47.5 St. Georges 2 921 35.84% @ Vittoriosa Stars 1 880 34.38% 29.78%
23 1978-04-03 47.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1226 63.30% Marsa 0 994 9.88% 26.83%
24 1978-05-01 47.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1133 62.14% St. Georges 0 917 10.69% 27.17%
25 1977-12-19 47.0 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1111 61.09% Birkirkara 0 910 11.46% 27.45%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-03-27 27.4 @ Floriana 4 1327 75.31% Birkirkara 0 880 3.53% 21.16%
2 1978-01-30 27.9 Valletta 5 1275 72.26% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 832 5.12% 22.62%
3 1978-03-20 28.2 @ Hibernians 5 1200 71.23% Vittoriosa Stars 0 837 5.23% 23.54%
4 1978-04-03 28.9 Hibernians 6 1210 68.75% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 829 6.89% 24.36%
5 1977-10-09 29.6 Floriana 7 1286 66.95% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 935 7.93% 25.12%
6 1978-01-23 30.0 @ Valletta 6 1270 74.64% Vittoriosa Stars 1 837 3.78% 21.58%
7 1977-10-16 30.5 Sliema Wanderers 4 1235 64.90% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 915 9.21% 25.89%
8 1978-04-03 30.7 @ Valletta 2 1280 70.97% St. Georges 0 921 5.36% 23.67%
9 1978-03-27 30.8 Valletta 3 1270 66.26% @ St. Georges 0 930 8.35% 25.39%
10 1978-02-06 31.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1141 68.69% Vittoriosa Stars 0 823 6.53% 24.78%
11 1978-01-09 32.1 Hamrun Spartans 7 1108 58.53% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 871 13.79% 27.68%
12 1977-11-07 32.2 Valletta 11 1214 59.29% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 968 13.20% 27.51%
13 1977-12-05 32.4 Sliema Wanderers 2 1256 65.31% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 930 8.94% 25.74%
14 1977-10-23 32.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1249 70.32% Vittoriosa Stars 0 902 5.68% 24.00%
15 1977-09-25 32.7 @ Hibernians 3 1129 59.79% St. Georges 0 944 12.44% 27.77%
16 1977-11-21 32.9 @ Floriana 2 1282 63.65% Marsa 0 1045 9.63% 26.72%
17 1977-10-23 33.0 @ Valletta 2 1206 63.19% Msida St. Joseph 0 976 9.95% 26.86%
18 1977-10-09 33.2 @ Hibernians 4 1143 55.64% Birkirkara 0 1006 15.79% 28.57%
19 1977-09-25 33.8 @ Valletta 4 1148 53.79% Birkirkara 0 1030 17.36% 28.84%
20 1978-02-20 34.1 @ Hibernians 3 1174 55.48% Marsa 0 1039 15.92% 28.60%
21 1977-10-09 34.8 Sliema Wanderers 5 1223 62.96% @ St. Georges 1 930 10.52% 26.53%
22 1977-10-16 35.1 Valletta 2 1195 56.19% @ Birkirkara 0 984 15.66% 28.15%
23 1978-03-20 35.6 @ Floriana 3 1324 71.11% Msida St. Joseph 1 962 5.29% 23.60%
24 1977-10-09 36.4 Valletta 3 1172 47.74% @ Marsa 0 1041 23.02% 29.24%
25 1978-02-20 36.6 @ Floriana 2 1310 72.43% St. Georges 1 923 4.68% 22.88%