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1976-77 Maltese First Division Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Floriana

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floriana

6.27 points above expected

33 points · 26.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Senglea Athletic

7.00 points below expected

3 points · 10.00 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 18 15 3 0 33 53 12 +41 26.73 +6.27
2 Sliema Wanderers 18 10 7 1 27 34 14 +20 25.20 +1.80
3 Valletta 18 10 5 3 25 43 19 +24 24.28 +0.72
4 Hibernians 18 9 5 4 23 34 28 +6 17.27 +5.73
5 Hamrun Spartans 18 6 3 9 15 24 20 +4 16.87 -1.87
6 Vittoriosa Stars 18 5 4 9 14 19 35 -16 14.53 -0.53
7 St. Georges 18 4 6 8 14 20 42 -22 14.90 -0.90
8 Zebbug Rangers 18 5 3 10 13 20 27 -7 15.35 -2.35
9 Msida St. Joseph 18 4 5 9 13 23 36 -13 14.87 -1.87
10 Senglea Athletic 18 0 3 15 3 14 51 -37 10.00 -7.00

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floriana 33 26.73 +6.27
2 Hibernians 23 17.27 +5.73
3 Sliema Wanderers 27 25.20 +1.80
4 Valletta 25 24.28 +0.72
5 Vittoriosa Stars 14 14.53 -0.53

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Senglea Athletic 3 10.00 -7.00
2 Zebbug Rangers 13 15.35 -2.35
3 Hamrun Spartans 15 16.87 -1.87
4 Msida St. Joseph 13 14.87 -1.87
5 St. Georges 14 14.90 -0.90

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Floriana 1412 33 +34 9 7.4 +1.6
Sliema Wanderers 1282 27 +8 6 5.8 +0.2
Valletta 1205 25 -45 5 6.9 -1.9
Hibernians 1160 23 +78 8 5.8 +2.2
Hamrun Spartans 1065 15 -13 4 5.8 -1.8
Vittoriosa Stars 927 14 +12 6 4.2 +1.8
St. Georges 906 14 -7 4 3.8 +0.2
Zebbug Rangers 1007 13 +41 6 3.7 +2.3
Msida St. Joseph 945 13 -65 1 4.0 -3.0
Senglea Athletic 735 3 -51 1 2.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FLO HS HIB MSJ SA SW SG VAL VS ZR
Floriana —
2-0-0
4.40
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.40
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.79
2-0-0
4.67
Hamrun Spartans
0-0-2
1.08
 —
0-0-2
2.98
0-1-1
3.58
2-0-0
4.29
0-0-2
1.13
2-0-0
3.37
0-0-2
1.35
0-2-0
2.50
2-0-0
2.72
Hibernians
0-0-2
1.63
2-0-0
2.47
 —
1-0-1
2.47
1-1-0
4.40
0-2-0
1.52
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
1.50
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.55
Msida St. Joseph
0-0-2
0.97
1-1-0
1.88
1-0-1
2.98
 —
1-1-0
3.56
0-1-1
1.05
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
2.54
Senglea Athletic
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
1.19
0-1-1
1.09
0-1-1
1.89
 —
0-0-2
1.16
0-1-1
1.77
0-0-2
0.91
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
0-1-1
1.92
2-0-0
4.34
0-2-0
3.94
1-1-0
4.43
2-0-0
4.33
 —
1-1-0
3.73
0-2-0
3.23
2-0-0
4.57
2-0-0
4.32
St. Georges
0-1-1
1.01
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.69
0-1-1
1.72
 —
0-0-2
1.06
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
2.91
Valletta
0-1-1
1.98
2-0-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.96
2-0-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.59
0-2-0
2.22
2-0-0
4.42
 —
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.88
Vittoriosa Stars
0-0-2
0.74
0-2-0
2.94
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.13
2-0-0
3.80
0-0-2
0.92
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.03
 —
1-0-1
2.40
Zebbug Rangers
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
2.73
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
3.26
0-0-2
1.16
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
3.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +6.7
Allowed 0.76 -6.1
Differential 0.91 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.78%3.33%2.78%3.33%1.11%23.89%
17.78%11.11%6.67%5.56%2.22%1.67%35.00%
23.33%6.67%5.56%1.11%1.11%0.56%18.33%
32.78%5.56%1.11%2.22%0.56%—12.22%
43.33%2.22%1.11%0.56%——7.22%
5+1.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
Total23.89%35.00%18.33%12.22%7.22%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.58 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.25
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%22.22%————27.78%
4———————
5+11.11%11.11%————22.22%
Total33.33%66.67%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 0.67 +2.28
SD 2.07 0.49 2.11
CV 0.70 0.73 —
Max 8 1 +7
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%————27.78%
111.11%5.56%27.78%———44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.11 +0.22
SD 1.41 0.76 1.66
CV 1.06 0.68 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
25.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.56 +0.33
SD 1.37 1.34 2.14
CV 0.72 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%———5.56%22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%—44.44%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.00 -0.72
SD 1.02 1.64 1.81
CV 0.80 0.82 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%5.56%16.67%—44.44%
1—5.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.83 -2.06
SD 0.88 1.58 1.80
CV 1.13 0.56 —
Max 3 8 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
211.11%5.56%16.67%———33.33%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.78 +1.11
SD 1.18 0.81 1.37
CV 0.63 1.04 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%—27.78%
1—27.78%—5.56%—11.11%44.44%
25.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%50.00%—11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.33 -1.22
SD 0.96 2.22 2.53
CV 0.87 0.95 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
416.67%11.11%————27.78%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.06 +1.33
SD 1.88 1.00 2.14
CV 0.79 0.95 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
116.67%11.11%5.56%16.67%11.11%—61.11%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%11.11%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.94 -0.89
SD 0.87 1.47 1.68
CV 0.83 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
15.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.50 -0.39
SD 1.37 1.29 1.72
CV 1.23 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Floriana 1412 33 26.73 +6.27 100.0% 19 22 25 26 29 31 32
Sliema Wanderers 1282 27 25.20 +1.80 76.0% 19 21 23 25 27 30 31
Valletta 1205 25 24.28 +0.72 60.0% 17 19 22 24 27 29 32
Hibernians 1160 23 17.27 +5.73 100.0% 10 13 15 17 19 22 23
Hamrun Spartans 1065 15 16.87 -1.87 38.0% 8 11 14 17 19 23 26
Zebbug Rangers 1004 13 15.35 -2.35 30.0% 6 9 13 15 18 21 22
Msida St. Joseph 948 13 14.87 -1.87 38.0% 7 10 13 15 17 20 24
Vittoriosa Stars 927 14 14.53 -0.53 46.0% 6 9 12 15 16 20 21
St. Georges 906 14 14.90 -0.90 45.0% 7 9 13 15 17 20 24
Senglea Athletic 735 3 10.00 -7.00 0.0% 4 5 8 10 11 16 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
Slight Edge
37.78%24.44%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.09 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Floriana, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.52 * Some Luck: 2.52 to 3.77 * Lucky: 3.77 to 5.03 * Wild Swing: 5.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.05 * Close: 1.05 to 1.58 * Off: 1.58 to 2.1 * Way Off: 2.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.72 points
Some Luck
03.148
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.323
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Floriana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Senglea Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 202.00
2.38
Wide Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
82%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Notable Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.56
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.82
Strong Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.83
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.38
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Zebbug Rangers 3
Msida St. Joseph 3

Leg 1: Zebbug Rangers 2-2 Msida St. Joseph

Leg 2: Msida St. Joseph 1-1 Zebbug Rangers

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Floriana54.00%27.00%16.00%3.00%——————
Sliema Wanderers26.00%37.00%32.00%3.00%2.00%—————
Valletta20.00%31.00%33.00%14.00%1.00%1.00%————
Hibernians——4.00%28.00%23.00%16.00%17.00%8.00%4.00%—
Hamrun Spartans—4.00%7.00%19.00%17.00%17.00%13.00%16.00%4.00%3.00%
Vittoriosa Stars———7.00%14.00%15.00%20.00%16.00%21.00%7.00%
St. Georges—1.00%2.00%7.00%13.00%17.00%16.00%21.00%14.00%9.00%
Zebbug Rangers——3.00%15.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%21.00%14.00%7.00%
Msida St. Joseph——2.00%3.00%15.00%17.00%19.00%15.00%25.00%4.00%
Senglea Athletic——1.00%1.00%—4.00%3.00%3.00%18.00%70.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Hibernians 96.00% 4.00%
Hamrun Spartans 93.00% 7.00%
Zebbug Rangers 79.00% 21.00%
St. Georges 77.00% 23.00%
Vittoriosa Stars 72.00% 28.00%
Msida St. Joseph 71.00% 29.00%
Senglea Athletic 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1976-09-11 Vittoriosa Stars D 1-151.1 1014 1050 31.96% 27.64% 40.39%-0.23 +0.9 1
1976-09-11 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-151.1 1050 1014 40.39% 27.64% 31.96%+0.23 -0.9 1
1976-09-11 Floriana L 0-533.3 1064 1155 25.08% 27.50% 47.42%-0.58 -67.9 0
1976-09-11 @ Hibernians W 5-033.3 1155 1064 47.42% 27.50% 25.08%+0.58 +67.9 2
1976-09-11 St. Georges L 1-343.0 1002 1046 30.83% 27.63% 41.54%-0.28 -29.4 0
1976-09-11 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-143.0 1046 1002 41.54% 27.63% 30.83%+0.28 +29.4 2
1976-09-11 Senglea Athletic W 4-031.2 1163 1021 54.25% 27.20% 18.54%+0.91 +43.4 2
1976-09-11 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-431.2 1021 1163 18.54% 27.20% 54.25%-0.91 -43.4 0
1976-09-11 Valletta L 1-439.4 1023 1104 26.19% 27.53% 46.28%-0.52 -36.8 0
1976-09-11 @ Zebbug Rangers W 4-139.4 1104 1023 46.28% 27.53% 26.19%+0.52 +36.8 2
1976-09-25 Hibernians W 3-038.3 973 996 33.60% 27.66% 38.74%-0.15 +58.3 2
1976-09-25 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-338.3 996 973 38.74% 27.66% 33.60%+0.15 -58.3 0
1976-09-25 Floriana L 1-831.5 978 1223 11.66% 26.42% 61.92%-1.57 -40.7 0
1976-09-25 @ Senglea Athletic W 8-131.5 1223 978 61.92% 26.42% 11.66%+1.57 +40.7 4
1976-09-25 St. Georges D 1-151.3 1207 1076 53.16% 27.27% 19.57%+0.84 -3.9 3
1976-09-25 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.3 1076 1207 19.57% 27.27% 53.16%-0.84 +3.9 3
1976-09-25 Valletta D 3-360.5 1049 1141 24.93% 27.50% 47.58%-0.59 +1.6 2
1976-09-25 @ Vittoriosa Stars D 3-360.5 1141 1049 47.58% 27.50% 24.93%+0.59 -1.6 3
1976-09-25 Hamrun Spartans L 0-141.2 986 1015 32.92% 27.65% 39.43%-0.18 -18.9 0
1976-09-25 @ Zebbug Rangers W 1-041.2 1015 986 39.43% 27.65% 32.92%+0.18 +18.9 3
1976-10-09 Senglea Athletic W 3-135.3 1263 937 67.42% 25.39% 7.19%+2.09 +8.5 6
1976-10-09 @ Floriana L 1-335.3 937 1263 7.19% 25.39% 67.42%-2.09 -8.5 0
1976-10-09 Valletta D 1-151.4 938 1139 14.59% 26.82% 58.58%-1.29 +5.3 1
1976-10-09 @ Hibernians D 1-151.4 1139 938 58.58% 26.82% 14.59%+1.29 -5.3 4
1976-10-09 Msida St. Joseph D 0-047.3 1080 1031 43.63% 27.61% 28.77%+0.31 -1.8 4
1976-10-09 @ St. Georges D 0-047.3 1031 1080 28.77% 27.61% 43.63%-0.31 +1.8 3
1976-10-09 Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.3 1051 1034 39.34% 27.66% 33.01%+0.11 -0.8 3
1976-10-09 @ Vittoriosa Stars D 0-047.3 1034 1051 33.01% 27.66% 39.34%-0.11 +0.8 4
1976-10-09 Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.0 967 1203 12.24% 26.51% 61.25%-1.51 -16.1 0
1976-10-09 @ Zebbug Rangers W 2-032.0 1203 967 61.25% 26.51% 12.24%+1.51 +16.1 5
1976-10-16 Floriana L 1-239.4 1035 1272 12.11% 26.50% 61.39%-1.52 -8.0 4
1976-10-16 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-139.4 1272 1035 61.39% 26.50% 12.11%+1.52 +8.0 8
1976-10-16 Msida St. Joseph W 4-252.0 943 1033 25.22% 27.51% 47.27%-0.57 +36.5 3
1976-10-16 @ Hibernians L 2-452.0 1033 943 47.27% 27.51% 25.22%+0.57 -36.5 3
1976-10-16 Zebbug Rangers L 1-246.1 929 951 33.79% 27.66% 38.55%-0.14 -18.2 0
1976-10-16 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-146.1 951 929 38.55% 27.66% 33.79%+0.14 +18.2 2
1976-10-16 Sliema Wanderers L 0-332.5 1078 1219 19.71% 27.25% 53.03%-0.90 -34.9 4
1976-10-16 @ St. Georges W 3-032.5 1219 1078 53.03% 27.25% 19.71%+0.90 +34.9 7
1976-10-16 Vittoriosa Stars W 4-033.1 1134 1050 48.01% 27.50% 24.49%+0.54 +54.1 6
1976-10-16 @ Valletta L 0-433.1 1050 1134 24.49% 27.50% 48.01%-0.54 -54.1 3
1976-10-23 Hamrun Spartans W 2-148.6 980 1027 30.52% 27.63% 41.86%-0.30 +21.3 5
1976-10-23 @ Hibernians L 1-248.6 1027 980 41.86% 27.63% 30.52%+0.30 -21.3 4
1976-10-23 Floriana L 0-528.3 996 1280 9.53% 26.00% 64.47%-1.82 -30.0 3
1976-10-23 @ Msida St. Joseph W 5-028.3 1280 996 64.47% 26.00% 9.53%+1.82 +30.0 10
1976-10-23 Zebbug Rangers W 4-240.1 1254 969 65.15% 25.91% 8.94%+1.82 +9.4 9
1976-10-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-440.1 969 1254 8.94% 25.91% 65.15%-1.82 -9.4 2
1976-10-23 Senglea Athletic W 4-028.1 1188 911 64.74% 25.99% 9.26%+1.78 +23.7 8
1976-10-23 @ Valletta L 0-428.1 911 1188 9.26% 25.99% 64.74%-1.78 -23.7 0
1976-10-23 St. Georges D 1-151.1 996 1043 30.45% 27.62% 41.93%-0.30 +1.2 4
1976-10-23 @ Vittoriosa Stars D 1-151.1 1043 996 41.93% 27.62% 30.45%+0.30 -1.2 5
1976-11-07 Hamrun Spartans W 1-034.0 1263 1005 63.52% 26.21% 10.27%+1.65 +7.3 11
1976-11-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-134.0 1005 1263 10.27% 26.21% 63.52%-1.65 -7.3 4
1976-11-07 Senglea Athletic D 1-151.3 1042 887 55.50% 27.12% 17.38%+0.99 -4.5 6
1976-11-07 @ St. Georges D 1-151.3 887 1042 17.38% 27.12% 55.50%-0.99 +4.5 1
1976-11-07 Floriana D 1-151.7 1212 1310 24.19% 27.47% 48.34%-0.63 +2.7 9
1976-11-07 @ Valletta D 1-151.7 1310 1212 48.34% 27.47% 24.19%+0.63 -2.7 11
1976-11-07 Vittoriosa Stars W 4-143.7 960 997 31.81% 27.64% 40.55%-0.24 +50.9 4
1976-11-07 @ Zebbug Rangers L 1-443.7 997 960 40.55% 27.64% 31.81%+0.24 -50.9 4
1976-11-21 Valletta W 3-141.3 1307 1214 49.03% 27.46% 23.51%+0.59 +23.9 13
1976-11-21 @ Floriana L 1-341.3 1214 1307 23.51% 27.46% 49.03%-0.59 -23.9 9
1976-11-21 Sliema Wanderers L 0-133.9 998 1270 10.11% 26.13% 63.75%-1.75 -7.2 4
1976-11-21 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-033.9 1270 998 63.75% 26.13% 10.11%+1.75 +7.2 13
1976-11-21 Vittoriosa Stars W 4-139.9 1001 946 44.49% 27.59% 27.93%+0.35 +38.6 7
1976-11-21 @ Hibernians L 1-439.9 946 1001 27.93% 27.59% 44.49%-0.35 -38.6 4
1976-11-21 Senglea Athletic W 3-248.5 966 891 46.92% 27.53% 25.56%+0.48 +14.0 5
1976-11-21 @ Msida St. Joseph L 2-348.5 891 966 25.56% 27.53% 46.92%-0.48 -14.0 1
1976-11-21 Zebbug Rangers W 2-145.5 1037 1011 40.64% 27.65% 31.71%+0.17 +17.3 8
1976-11-21 @ St. Georges L 1-245.5 1011 1037 31.71% 27.65% 40.64%-0.17 -17.3 4
1976-12-05 Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.7 980 1277 8.88% 25.85% 65.27%-1.91 +7.2 6
1976-12-05 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-151.7 1277 980 65.27% 25.85% 8.88%+1.91 -7.2 14
1976-12-05 Hibernians L 1-345.5 1054 1040 39.03% 27.66% 33.31%+0.09 -35.0 8
1976-12-05 @ St. Georges W 3-145.5 1040 1054 33.31% 27.66% 39.03%-0.09 +35.0 9
1976-12-05 Hamrun Spartans W 2-139.9 1190 991 59.38% 26.77% 13.85%+1.28 +9.0 11
1976-12-05 @ Valletta L 1-239.9 991 1190 13.85% 26.77% 59.38%-1.28 -9.0 4
1976-12-05 Floriana L 1-236.4 907 1331 4.61% 24.11% 71.28%-2.72 -3.1 4
1976-12-05 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 2-136.4 1331 907 71.28% 24.11% 4.61%+2.72 +3.2 15
1976-12-05 Senglea Athletic W 3-032.9 994 877 51.63% 27.35% 21.02%+0.75 +36.7 6
1976-12-05 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-332.9 877 994 21.02% 27.35% 51.63%-0.75 -36.7 1
1976-12-19 St. Georges D 1-151.9 1334 1019 66.83% 25.54% 7.63%+2.02 -7.6 16
1976-12-19 @ Floriana D 1-151.9 1019 1334 7.63% 25.54% 66.83%-2.02 +7.6 9
1976-12-19 Valletta L 0-135.1 982 1199 13.41% 26.68% 59.91%-1.39 -9.2 4
1976-12-19 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-035.1 1199 982 59.91% 26.68% 13.41%+1.39 +9.2 13
1976-12-19 Msida St. Joseph D 2-256.4 841 987 19.16% 27.22% 53.62%-0.94 +3.0 2
1976-12-19 @ Senglea Athletic D 2-256.4 987 841 53.62% 27.22% 19.16%+0.94 -3.0 7
1976-12-19 Hibernians D 2-256.7 1270 1075 59.04% 26.81% 14.16%+1.25 -4.1 15
1976-12-19 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-256.7 1075 1270 14.16% 26.81% 59.04%-1.25 +4.1 10
1976-12-19 Zebbug Rangers W 1-046.6 904 1030 21.19% 27.34% 51.47%-0.81 +27.0 6
1976-12-19 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 0-146.6 1030 904 51.47% 27.34% 21.19%+0.81 -27.0 6
1977-01-09 Zebbug Rangers W 1-043.2 973 1003 32.66% 27.65% 39.69%-0.20 +21.7 6
1977-01-09 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-143.2 1003 973 39.69% 27.65% 32.66%+0.20 -21.7 6
1977-01-09 Hibernians L 0-429.1 844 1079 12.24% 26.51% 61.25%-1.51 -30.5 2
1977-01-09 @ Senglea Athletic W 4-029.1 1079 844 61.25% 26.51% 12.24%+1.51 +30.5 12
1977-01-09 Valletta D 2-256.7 1266 1209 44.77% 27.58% 27.65%+0.37 -1.4 16
1977-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-256.7 1209 1266 27.65% 27.58% 44.77%-0.37 +1.4 14
1977-01-09 Floriana L 1-730.7 1027 1327 8.77% 25.82% 65.41%-1.92 -27.2 9
1977-01-09 @ St. Georges W 7-130.7 1327 1027 65.41% 25.82% 8.77%+1.92 +27.2 18
1977-01-09 Msida St. Joseph L 0-140.2 931 984 29.67% 27.61% 42.72%-0.34 -17.5 6
1977-01-09 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 1-040.2 984 931 42.72% 27.61% 29.67%+0.34 +17.5 9
1977-01-23 Vittoriosa Stars W 3-133.8 1354 914 72.28% 23.73% 3.99%+2.82 +4.7 20
1977-01-23 @ Floriana L 1-333.8 914 1354 3.99% 23.73% 72.28%-2.82 -4.7 6
1977-01-23 Senglea Athletic W 3-138.1 994 813 57.86% 26.92% 15.21%+1.16 +16.8 8
1977-01-23 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-338.1 813 994 15.21% 26.92% 57.86%-1.16 -16.8 2
1977-01-23 Sliema Wanderers D 2-256.6 1109 1265 18.36% 27.16% 54.47%-1.00 +3.2 13
1977-01-23 @ Hibernians D 2-256.6 1265 1109 54.47% 27.16% 18.36%+1.00 -3.2 17
1977-01-23 Valletta L 1-337.8 1002 1210 14.07% 26.76% 59.17%-1.34 -15.7 9
1977-01-23 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-137.8 1210 1002 59.17% 26.76% 14.07%+1.34 +15.7 16
1977-01-23 St. Georges D 1-151.1 982 1000 34.39% 27.66% 37.95%-0.12 +0.4 7
1977-01-23 @ Zebbug Rangers D 1-151.1 1000 982 37.95% 27.66% 34.39%+0.12 -0.4 10
1977-01-30 Zebbug Rangers W 1-032.2 1359 982 69.76% 24.70% 5.54%+2.41 +4.0 22
1977-01-30 @ Floriana L 0-132.2 982 1359 5.54% 24.70% 69.76%-2.41 -4.0 7
1977-01-30 St. Georges W 4-035.9 1011 1000 38.64% 27.66% 33.70%+0.07 +68.8 10
1977-01-30 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-435.9 1000 1011 33.70% 27.66% 38.64%-0.07 -68.8 10
1977-01-30 Valletta L 0-228.9 796 1226 4.48% 24.02% 71.50%-2.75 -6.1 2
1977-01-30 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-028.9 1226 796 71.50% 24.02% 4.48%+2.75 +6.1 18
1977-01-30 Vittoriosa Stars W 3-134.9 1262 909 68.70% 25.04% 6.27%+2.26 +7.5 19
1977-01-30 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-334.9 909 1262 6.27% 25.04% 68.70%-2.26 -7.4 6
1977-02-06 Zebbug Rangers W 2-141.7 1113 978 53.54% 27.25% 19.21%+0.86 +11.8 15
1977-02-06 @ Hibernians L 1-241.7 978 1113 19.21% 27.25% 53.54%-0.86 -11.8 7
1977-02-06 Hamrun Spartans D 2-256.3 986 1080 24.69% 27.49% 47.82%-0.60 +1.9 10
1977-02-06 @ Msida St. Joseph D 2-256.3 1080 986 47.82% 27.49% 24.69%+0.60 -1.9 11
1977-02-06 Sliema Wanderers L 0-228.3 790 1269 3.47% 23.22% 73.30%-3.07 -4.7 2
1977-02-06 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-028.3 1269 790 73.30% 23.22% 3.47%+3.07 +4.7 21
1977-02-06 St. Georges W 7-232.3 1232 931 66.11% 25.71% 8.19%+1.93 +18.0 20
1977-02-06 @ Valletta L 2-732.3 931 1232 8.19% 25.71% 66.11%-1.93 -18.1 10
1977-02-20 Hibernians W 2-032.1 1363 1124 62.24% 26.41% 11.35%+1.53 +15.0 24
1977-02-20 @ Floriana L 0-232.1 1124 1363 11.35% 26.41% 62.24%-1.53 -15.1 15
1977-02-20 Vittoriosa Stars L 1-242.6 786 902 22.24% 27.39% 50.37%-0.74 -13.2 2
1977-02-20 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-142.6 902 786 50.37% 27.39% 22.24%+0.74 +13.2 8
1977-02-20 Msida St. Joseph W 2-138.2 1274 988 65.23% 25.89% 8.87%+1.83 +6.0 23
1977-02-20 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-238.2 988 1274 8.87% 25.89% 65.23%-1.83 -6.0 10
1977-02-20 Hamrun Spartans L 1-535.0 913 1078 17.47% 27.10% 55.43%-1.06 -34.4 10
1977-02-20 @ St. Georges W 5-135.0 1078 913 55.43% 27.10% 17.47%+1.06 +34.4 13
1977-02-20 Zebbug Rangers L 0-150.4 1250 966 65.12% 25.92% 8.96%+1.82 -34.0 20
1977-02-20 @ Valletta W 1-050.4 966 1250 8.96% 25.92% 65.12%-1.82 +34.0 9
1977-03-06 Sliema Wanderers D 1-152.6 1378 1280 49.61% 27.44% 22.95%+0.63 -3.0 25
1977-03-06 @ Floriana D 1-152.6 1280 1378 22.95% 27.44% 49.61%-0.63 +3.0 24
1977-03-06 Msida St. Joseph L 0-147.1 1112 982 53.11% 27.27% 19.62%+0.84 -27.8 13
1977-03-06 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-047.1 982 1112 19.62% 27.27% 53.11%-0.84 +27.8 12
1977-03-06 St. Georges L 0-235.5 772 878 23.33% 27.44% 49.24%-0.68 -27.4 2
1977-03-06 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-035.5 878 772 49.24% 27.44% 23.33%+0.68 +27.5 12
1977-03-06 Hibernians W 3-258.1 915 1109 15.08% 26.88% 58.04%-1.25 +27.1 10
1977-03-06 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 2-358.1 1109 915 58.04% 26.88% 15.08%+1.25 -27.1 15
1977-03-20 Msida St. Joseph W 3-134.9 1375 1010 69.25% 24.87% 5.88%+2.34 +7.0 27
1977-03-20 @ Floriana L 1-334.9 1010 1375 5.88% 24.87% 69.25%-2.34 -7.0 12
1977-03-20 Hamrun Spartans L 1-237.4 745 1085 7.12% 25.31% 67.57%-2.18 -4.9 2
1977-03-20 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-137.4 1085 745 67.57% 25.31% 7.12%+2.18 +4.9 15
1977-03-20 Vittoriosa Stars W 3-145.9 906 942 31.92% 27.64% 40.44%-0.23 +35.9 14
1977-03-20 @ St. Georges L 1-345.9 942 906 40.44% 27.64% 31.92%+0.23 -35.9 10
1977-03-20 Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.7 1216 1283 27.91% 27.58% 44.51%-0.43 +2.0 21
1977-03-20 @ Valletta D 0-047.7 1283 1216 44.51% 27.58% 27.91%+0.43 -2.0 25
1977-03-20 Hibernians D 0-047.3 1000 1082 26.07% 27.53% 46.39%-0.53 +2.5 10
1977-03-20 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-047.3 1082 1000 46.39% 27.53% 26.07%+0.53 -2.5 16
1977-03-27 Senglea Athletic D 3-361.1 1080 740 68.09% 25.21% 6.70%+2.18 -4.9 17
1977-03-27 @ Hibernians D 3-361.1 740 1080 6.70% 25.21% 68.09%-2.18 +4.9 3
1977-03-27 Vittoriosa Stars L 0-146.1 1003 906 49.51% 27.44% 23.05%+0.62 -26.1 12
1977-03-27 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-046.1 906 1003 23.05% 27.44% 49.51%-0.62 +26.1 12
1977-03-27 Valletta L 0-428.3 942 1218 9.90% 26.09% 64.01%-1.77 -25.2 14
1977-03-27 @ St. Georges W 4-028.3 1218 942 64.01% 26.09% 9.90%+1.77 +25.2 23
1977-03-27 Floriana L 0-327.7 1003 1382 5.81% 24.78% 69.41%-2.43 -11.6 10
1977-03-27 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-027.7 1382 1003 69.41% 24.78% 5.81%+2.43 +11.6 29
1977-04-03 Hibernians L 1-247.8 1090 1075 39.06% 27.66% 33.28%+0.09 -20.2 15
1977-04-03 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-147.8 1075 1090 33.28% 27.66% 39.06%-0.09 +20.2 19
1977-04-03 Floriana L 0-139.6 1281 1393 22.62% 27.41% 49.97%-0.72 -14.2 25
1977-04-03 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-039.6 1393 1281 49.97% 27.41% 22.62%+0.72 +14.2 31
1977-04-03 Senglea Athletic W 1-035.5 932 745 58.35% 26.88% 14.77%+1.20 +10.0 14
1977-04-03 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 0-135.5 745 932 14.77% 26.88% 58.35%-1.20 -10.0 3
1977-04-03 Msida St. Joseph D 0-047.3 991 977 39.02% 27.66% 33.32%+0.09 -0.7 11
1977-04-03 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-047.3 977 991 33.32% 27.66% 39.02%-0.09 +0.7 13
1977-04-17 Hamrun Spartans W 2-137.7 1407 1069 68.01% 25.24% 6.76%+2.17 +4.6 33
1977-04-17 @ Floriana L 1-237.7 1069 1407 6.76% 25.24% 68.01%-2.17 -4.6 15
1977-04-17 St. Georges W 1-035.7 1095 916 57.64% 26.94% 15.42%+1.15 +10.4 21
1977-04-17 @ Hibernians L 0-135.7 916 1095 15.42% 26.94% 57.64%-1.15 -10.4 14
1977-04-17 Msida St. Joseph W 4-134.1 1243 977 64.03% 26.12% 9.85%+1.70 +16.2 25
1977-04-17 @ Valletta L 1-434.1 977 1243 9.85% 26.12% 64.03%-1.70 -16.2 13
1977-04-17 Sliema Wanderers L 0-328.4 942 1267 7.70% 25.51% 66.78%-2.08 -15.2 14
1977-04-17 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 3-028.4 1267 942 66.78% 25.51% 7.70%+2.08 +15.3 27
1977-05-01 Zebbug Rangers L 3-453.9 961 991 32.86% 27.65% 39.49%-0.19 -16.5 13
1977-05-01 @ Msida St. Joseph W 4-353.9 991 961 39.49% 27.65% 32.86%+0.19 +16.5 13
1977-05-01 Hibernians L 0-245.2 1259 1105 55.42% 27.12% 17.46%+0.99 -54.6 25
1977-05-01 @ Valletta W 2-045.2 1105 1259 17.46% 27.12% 55.42%-0.99 +54.6 23

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1977-05-08 Zebbug Rangers D 1-151.2 945 1007 28.51% 27.59% 43.90%-0.40 +1.7 0-0-1
1977-05-08 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-151.2 1007 945 43.90% 27.59% 28.51%+0.40 -1.7 0-0-1
1977-05-15 Msida St. Joseph D 2-256.3 1005 946 44.93% 27.58% 27.49%+0.38 -1.4 0-0-2
1977-05-15 @ Zebbug Rangers D 2-256.3 946 1005 27.49% 27.58% 44.93%-0.38 +1.4 0-0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-02-20 8.96% Zebbug Rangers 966 1 @ Valletta 1250 0
2 1977-03-06 15.08% @ Vittoriosa Stars 915 3 Hibernians 1109 2
3 1977-05-01 17.46% Hibernians 1105 2 @ Valletta 1259 0
4 1977-03-06 19.62% Msida St. Joseph 982 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1112 0
5 1976-12-19 21.19% @ Vittoriosa Stars 904 1 Zebbug Rangers 1030 0
6 1977-03-27 23.05% Vittoriosa Stars 906 1 @ Msida St. Joseph 1003 0
7 1976-10-16 25.22% @ Hibernians 943 4 Msida St. Joseph 1033 2
8 1976-10-23 30.52% @ Hibernians 980 2 Hamrun Spartans 1027 1
9 1976-11-07 31.81% @ Zebbug Rangers 960 4 Vittoriosa Stars 997 1
10 1977-03-20 31.92% @ St. Georges 906 3 Vittoriosa Stars 942 1
11 1977-01-09 32.66% @ Hamrun Spartans 973 1 Zebbug Rangers 1003 0
12 1977-04-03 33.28% Hibernians 1075 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1090 1
13 1976-12-05 33.31% Hibernians 1040 3 @ St. Georges 1054 1
14 1976-09-25 33.60% @ Msida St. Joseph 973 3 Hibernians 996 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-01-30 68.78 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1011 38.64% St. Georges 0 1000 33.70% 27.66%
2 1976-09-11 67.90 Floriana 5 1155 47.42% @ Hibernians 0 1064 25.08% 27.50%
3 1976-09-25 58.32 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 973 33.60% Hibernians 0 996 38.74% 27.66%
4 1977-05-01 54.56 Hibernians 2 1105 17.46% @ Valletta 0 1259 55.42% 27.12%
5 1976-10-16 54.11 @ Valletta 4 1134 48.01% Vittoriosa Stars 0 1050 24.49% 27.50%
6 1976-11-07 50.93 @ Zebbug Rangers 4 960 31.81% Vittoriosa Stars 1 997 40.55% 27.64%
7 1976-09-11 43.39 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1163 54.25% Senglea Athletic 0 1021 18.54% 27.20%
8 1976-09-25 40.72 Floriana 8 1223 61.92% @ Senglea Athletic 1 978 11.66% 26.42%
9 1976-11-21 38.61 @ Hibernians 4 1001 44.49% Vittoriosa Stars 1 946 27.93% 27.59%
10 1976-09-11 36.76 Valletta 4 1104 46.28% @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1023 26.19% 27.53%
11 1976-12-05 36.74 @ Zebbug Rangers 3 994 51.63% Senglea Athletic 0 877 21.02% 27.35%
12 1976-10-16 36.54 @ Hibernians 4 943 25.22% Msida St. Joseph 2 1033 47.27% 27.51%
13 1977-03-20 35.94 @ St. Georges 3 906 31.92% Vittoriosa Stars 1 942 40.44% 27.64%
14 1976-12-05 34.97 Hibernians 3 1040 33.31% @ St. Georges 1 1054 39.03% 27.66%
15 1976-10-16 34.89 Sliema Wanderers 3 1219 53.03% @ St. Georges 0 1078 19.71% 27.25%
16 1977-02-20 34.42 Hamrun Spartans 5 1078 55.43% @ St. Georges 1 913 17.47% 27.10%
17 1977-02-20 34.05 Zebbug Rangers 1 966 8.96% @ Valletta 0 1250 65.12% 25.92%
18 1977-01-09 30.49 Hibernians 4 1079 61.25% @ Senglea Athletic 0 844 12.24% 26.51%
19 1976-10-23 29.98 Floriana 5 1280 64.47% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 996 9.53% 26.00%
20 1976-09-11 29.40 St. Georges 3 1046 41.54% @ Msida St. Joseph 1 1002 30.83% 27.63%
21 1977-03-06 27.78 Msida St. Joseph 1 982 19.62% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1112 53.11% 27.27%
22 1977-03-06 27.45 St. Georges 2 878 49.24% @ Senglea Athletic 0 772 23.33% 27.44%
23 1977-01-09 27.21 Floriana 7 1327 65.41% @ St. Georges 1 1027 8.77% 25.82%
24 1977-03-06 27.07 @ Vittoriosa Stars 3 915 15.08% Hibernians 2 1109 58.04% 26.88%
25 1976-12-19 26.99 @ Vittoriosa Stars 1 904 21.19% Zebbug Rangers 0 1030 51.47% 27.34%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-03-27 61.1 @ Hibernians 3 1080 68.09% Senglea Athletic 3 740 6.70% 25.21%
2 1976-09-25 60.5 @ Vittoriosa Stars 3 1049 24.93% Valletta 3 1141 47.58% 27.50%
3 1977-03-06 58.1 @ Vittoriosa Stars 3 915 15.08% Hibernians 2 1109 58.04% 26.88%
4 1976-12-19 56.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1270 59.04% Hibernians 2 1075 14.16% 26.81%
5 1977-01-09 56.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1266 44.77% Valletta 2 1209 27.65% 27.58%
6 1977-01-23 56.6 @ Hibernians 2 1109 18.36% Sliema Wanderers 2 1265 54.47% 27.16%
7 1976-12-19 56.4 @ Senglea Athletic 2 841 19.16% Msida St. Joseph 2 987 53.62% 27.22%
8 1977-02-06 56.3 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 986 24.69% Hamrun Spartans 2 1080 47.82% 27.49%
9 1977-05-15 * 56.3 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1005 44.93% Msida St. Joseph 2 946 27.49% 27.58%
10 1977-05-01 53.9 Zebbug Rangers 4 991 39.49% @ Msida St. Joseph 3 961 32.86% 27.65%
11 1977-03-06 52.6 @ Floriana 1 1378 49.61% Sliema Wanderers 1 1280 22.95% 27.44%
12 1976-10-16 52.0 @ Hibernians 4 943 25.22% Msida St. Joseph 2 1033 47.27% 27.51%
13 1976-12-19 51.9 @ Floriana 1 1334 66.83% St. Georges 1 1019 7.63% 25.54%
14 1976-11-07 51.7 @ Valletta 1 1212 24.19% Floriana 1 1310 48.34% 27.47%
15 1976-12-05 51.7 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 980 8.88% Sliema Wanderers 1 1277 65.27% 25.85%
16 1976-10-09 51.4 @ Hibernians 1 938 14.59% Valletta 1 1139 58.58% 26.82%
17 1976-09-25 51.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1207 53.16% St. Georges 1 1076 19.57% 27.27%
18 1976-11-07 51.3 @ St. Georges 1 1042 55.50% Senglea Athletic 1 887 17.38% 27.12%
19 1977-05-08 * 51.2 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 945 28.51% Zebbug Rangers 1 1007 43.90% 27.59%
20 1976-09-11 51.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1014 31.96% Vittoriosa Stars 1 1050 40.39% 27.64%
21 1976-10-23 51.1 @ Vittoriosa Stars 1 996 30.45% St. Georges 1 1043 41.93% 27.62%
22 1977-01-23 51.1 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 982 34.39% St. Georges 1 1000 37.95% 27.66%
23 1977-02-20 50.4 Zebbug Rangers 1 966 8.96% @ Valletta 0 1250 65.12% 25.92%
24 1976-10-23 48.6 @ Hibernians 2 980 30.52% Hamrun Spartans 1 1027 41.86% 27.63%
25 1976-11-21 48.5 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 966 46.92% Senglea Athletic 2 891 25.56% 27.53%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-03-27 27.7 Floriana 3 1382 69.41% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1003 5.81% 24.78%
2 1976-10-23 28.1 @ Valletta 4 1188 64.74% Senglea Athletic 0 911 9.26% 25.99%
3 1976-10-23 28.3 Floriana 5 1280 64.47% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 996 9.53% 26.00%
4 1977-02-06 28.3 Sliema Wanderers 2 1269 73.30% @ Senglea Athletic 0 790 3.47% 23.22%
5 1977-03-27 28.3 Valletta 4 1218 64.01% @ St. Georges 0 942 9.90% 26.09%
6 1977-04-17 28.4 Sliema Wanderers 3 1267 66.78% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 942 7.70% 25.51%
7 1977-01-30 28.9 Valletta 2 1226 71.50% @ Senglea Athletic 0 796 4.48% 24.02%
8 1977-01-09 29.1 Hibernians 4 1079 61.25% @ Senglea Athletic 0 844 12.24% 26.51%
9 1977-01-09 30.7 Floriana 7 1327 65.41% @ St. Georges 1 1027 8.77% 25.82%
10 1976-09-11 31.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1163 54.25% Senglea Athletic 0 1021 18.54% 27.20%
11 1976-09-25 31.5 Floriana 8 1223 61.92% @ Senglea Athletic 1 978 11.66% 26.42%
12 1976-10-09 32.0 Sliema Wanderers 2 1203 61.25% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 967 12.24% 26.51%
13 1977-02-20 32.1 @ Floriana 2 1363 62.24% Hibernians 0 1124 11.35% 26.41%
14 1977-01-30 32.2 @ Floriana 1 1359 69.76% Zebbug Rangers 0 982 5.54% 24.70%
15 1977-02-06 32.3 @ Valletta 7 1232 66.11% St. Georges 2 931 8.19% 25.71%
16 1976-10-16 32.5 Sliema Wanderers 3 1219 53.03% @ St. Georges 0 1078 19.71% 27.25%
17 1976-12-05 32.9 @ Zebbug Rangers 3 994 51.63% Senglea Athletic 0 877 21.02% 27.35%
18 1976-10-16 33.1 @ Valletta 4 1134 48.01% Vittoriosa Stars 0 1050 24.49% 27.50%
19 1976-09-11 33.3 Floriana 5 1155 47.42% @ Hibernians 0 1064 25.08% 27.50%
20 1977-01-23 33.8 @ Floriana 3 1354 72.28% Vittoriosa Stars 1 914 3.99% 23.73%
21 1976-11-21 33.9 Sliema Wanderers 1 1270 63.75% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 998 10.11% 26.13%
22 1976-11-07 34.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1263 63.52% Hamrun Spartans 0 1005 10.27% 26.21%
23 1977-04-17 34.1 @ Valletta 4 1243 64.03% Msida St. Joseph 1 977 9.85% 26.12%
24 1977-01-30 34.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1262 68.70% Vittoriosa Stars 1 909 6.27% 25.04%
25 1977-03-20 34.9 @ Floriana 3 1375 69.25% Msida St. Joseph 1 1010 5.88% 24.87%