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1975-76 Maltese First Division Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Sliema Wanderers

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Msida St. Joseph

4.44 points above expected

18 points · 13.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Birkirkara

5.56 points below expected

11 points · 16.56 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 18 11 4 3 26 34 13 +21 21.68 +4.32
2 Floriana 18 9 7 2 25 27 14 +13 24.20 +0.80
3 Hibernians 18 7 6 5 20 17 18 -1 16.59 +3.41
4 Zebbug Rangers 18 7 6 5 20 20 25 -5 16.08 +3.92
5 Valletta 18 6 6 6 18 34 27 +7 20.37 -2.37
6 Msida St. Joseph 18 7 4 7 18 22 23 -1 13.56 +4.44
7 Senglea Athletic 18 4 8 6 16 16 21 -5 16.59 -0.59
8 St. Georges 18 4 6 8 14 18 25 -7 19.50 -5.50
9 Marsa 18 3 6 9 12 20 35 -15 14.87 -2.87
10 Birkirkara 18 1 9 8 11 11 18 -7 16.56 -5.56

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Msida St. Joseph 18 13.56 +4.44
2 Sliema Wanderers 26 21.68 +4.32
3 Zebbug Rangers 20 16.08 +3.92
4 Hibernians 20 16.59 +3.41
5 Floriana 25 24.20 +0.80

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Birkirkara 11 16.56 -5.56
2 St. Georges 14 19.50 -5.50
3 Marsa 12 14.87 -2.87
4 Valletta 18 20.37 -2.37
5 Senglea Athletic 16 16.59 -0.59

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sliema Wanderers 1262 26 +17 7 7.0 +0.0
Floriana 1256 25 +3 7 7.2 -0.2
Hibernians 1099 20 +18 7 4.9 +2.1
Zebbug Rangers 1082 20 +17 6 4.2 +1.8
Msida St. Joseph 1028 18 +39 8 3.7 +4.3
Valletta 1173 18 -8 4 5.9 -1.9
Senglea Athletic 1057 16 -23 3 3.8 -0.8
St. Georges 1093 14 -26 2 4.7 -2.7
Marsa 1006 12 -21 3 3.9 -0.9
Birkirkara 1049 11 -15 3 4.6 -1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HIB MAR MSJ SA SW SG VAL ZR
Birkirkara —
0-1-1
1.42
0-0-2
2.51
0-1-1
2.92
1-0-1
3.08
0-2-0
2.45
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.02
0-2-0
2.55
Floriana
1-1-0
3.93
 —
0-1-1
3.86
1-1-0
3.83
2-0-0
4.13
0-2-0
4.00
1-0-1
3.00
1-1-0
3.42
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.80
Hibernians
2-0-0
2.77
1-1-0
1.48
 —
0-2-0
2.94
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
1.74
0-1-1
2.80
Marsa
1-1-0
2.36
0-1-1
1.50
0-2-0
2.34
 —
0-1-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
1.53
1-1-0
1.91
0-0-2
1.77
0-0-2
2.40
Msida St. Joseph
1-0-1
2.20
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
2.59
 —
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-0
1.41
1-1-0
1.56
2-0-0
1.71
0-1-1
2.08
Senglea Athletic
0-2-0
2.83
0-2-0
1.36
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.15
 —
1-0-1
1.79
0-1-1
2.30
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
2.70
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.82
0-1-1
3.96
1-0-1
3.52
 —
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.96
1-1-0
3.52
St. Georges
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
1.88
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
3.38
0-1-1
3.77
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
2.25
 —
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
3.27
Valletta
1-1-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
3.57
2-0-0
3.54
0-0-2
3.61
1-1-0
3.29
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.81
 —
1-0-1
3.22
Zebbug Rangers
0-2-0
2.73
0-0-2
1.54
1-1-0
2.48
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
3.21
1-1-0
2.58
0-1-1
1.79
1-0-1
2.02
1-0-1
2.08
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.47 +4.5
Allowed 0.41 -4.9
Differential 0.77 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.89%3.33%1.67%1.11%0.56%32.22%
18.89%13.33%7.22%4.44%1.67%—35.56%
23.33%7.22%3.33%2.22%0.56%—16.67%
31.67%4.44%2.22%1.11%1.11%—10.56%
41.11%1.67%0.56%1.11%——4.44%
5+0.56%—————0.56%
Total32.22%35.56%16.67%10.56%4.44%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.56
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%22.22%————44.44%
1—27.78%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 1.00 -0.39
SD 0.61 0.84 0.85
CV 0.99 0.84 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%————33.33%
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.78 +0.72
SD 1.38 0.94 1.13
CV 0.92 1.21 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
122.22%16.67%—5.56%——44.44%
2———————
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.00 -0.06
SD 1.06 1.03 1.30
CV 1.12 1.03 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—16.67%—11.11%11.11%—38.89%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%5.56%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.94 -0.83
SD 1.13 1.43 1.38
CV 1.02 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.28 -0.06
SD 0.94 1.02 1.16
CV 0.77 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
1—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.17 -0.28
SD 0.96 1.15 1.45
CV 1.08 0.99 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
3———————
411.11%16.67%————27.78%
5+———————
Total33.33%61.11%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.72 +1.17
SD 1.49 0.57 1.65
CV 0.79 0.80 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%11.11%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.39 -0.39
SD 1.08 1.54 1.61
CV 1.08 1.11 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
35.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.50 +0.39
SD 1.49 1.25 2.06
CV 0.79 0.83 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
116.67%22.22%5.56%———44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%16.67%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.39 -0.28
SD 1.02 1.50 1.87
CV 0.92 1.08 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sliema Wanderers 1262 26 21.68 +4.32 92.0% 12 15 19 22 24 28 32
Floriana 1256 25 24.20 +0.80 66.0% 18 19 22 24 26 29 32
Valletta 1173 18 20.37 -2.37 30.0% 12 15 18 20 23 25 30
Hibernians 1122 20 16.59 +3.41 91.0% 9 12 14 17 19 21 23
St. Georges 1093 14 19.50 -5.50 3.0% 13 15 17 19 22 25 27
Zebbug Rangers 1059 20 16.08 +3.92 91.0% 7 11 14 16 18 22 23
Senglea Athletic 1057 16 16.59 -0.59 53.0% 8 10 14 16 19 23 27
Birkirkara 1049 11 16.56 -5.56 4.0% 8 12 15 16 18 21 26
Msida St. Joseph 1028 18 13.56 +4.44 92.0% 7 8 12 13 15 19 22
Marsa 1006 12 14.87 -2.87 21.0% 8 10 13 14 17 20 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.11%
Slight Edge
33.33%34.44%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.
217 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.08 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
28%
Sliema Wanderers, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.62 * Some Luck: 2.62 to 3.94 * Lucky: 3.94 to 5.25 * Wild Swing: 5.25 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.4 * Close: 1.4 to 2.09 * Off: 2.09 to 2.79 * Way Off: 2.79 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.76 points
Some Luck
03.288
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.30
Off
01.754
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.00%
Sliema Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
St. Georges
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 90.54
1.46
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
64%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
73%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
10%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.38
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.43
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.38 * Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.75
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.155
Well Within Noise
00.1900.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Hibernians 3
Zebbug Rangers 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Sliema Wanderers28.00%26.00%19.00%8.00%4.00%5.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
Floriana52.00%24.00%14.00%7.00%3.00%—————
Hibernians1.00%4.00%6.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%15.00%15.00%11.00%7.00%
Zebbug Rangers—3.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%21.00%9.00%12.00%
Valletta12.00%21.00%16.00%17.00%14.00%8.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%—
Msida St. Joseph——2.00%4.00%7.00%5.00%9.00%14.00%28.00%31.00%
Senglea Athletic2.00%5.00%11.00%7.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%14.00%13.00%
St. Georges5.00%13.00%15.00%21.00%15.00%13.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
Marsa——6.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%11.00%11.00%20.00%27.00%
Birkirkara—4.00%3.00%11.00%11.00%22.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 98.00% 2.00%
Valletta 98.00% 2.00%
St. Georges 97.00% 3.00%
Hibernians 82.00% 18.00%
Birkirkara 79.00% 21.00%
Zebbug Rangers 79.00% 21.00%
Senglea Athletic 73.00% 27.00%
Marsa 53.00% 47.00%
Msida St. Joseph 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1975-09-11 Valletta D 1-149.8 1092 1151 25.65% 35.84% 38.51%-0.25 +0.6 1
1975-09-11 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.8 1151 1092 38.51% 35.84% 25.65%+0.25 -0.6 1
1975-09-11 Marsa D 1-149.7 1092 1069 36.81% 36.03% 27.16%+0.12 -0.5 1
1975-09-11 @ Hibernians D 1-149.7 1069 1092 27.16% 36.03% 36.81%-0.12 +0.5 1
1975-09-11 Msida St. Joseph W 2-143.6 1074 987 44.89% 35.15% 19.96%+0.42 +6.0 2
1975-09-11 @ Senglea Athletic L 1-243.6 987 1074 19.96% 35.15% 44.89%-0.42 -6.1 0
1975-09-11 Floriana L 0-140.3 1162 1223 25.40% 35.82% 38.78%-0.26 -7.6 0
1975-09-11 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-040.3 1223 1162 38.78% 35.82% 25.40%+0.26 +7.6 2
1975-09-11 Zebbug Rangers W 2-035.2 1161 1092 42.75% 35.48% 21.77%+0.34 +12.9 2
1975-09-11 @ St. Georges L 0-235.2 1092 1161 21.77% 35.48% 42.75%-0.34 -12.9 0
1975-09-25 Hibernians L 0-142.7 1093 1092 33.76% 36.13% 30.11%+0.02 -9.2 1
1975-09-25 @ Birkirkara W 1-042.7 1092 1093 30.11% 36.13% 33.76%-0.02 +9.2 3
1975-09-25 Marsa W 3-137.5 1231 1069 53.02% 33.08% 13.90%+0.76 +7.8 4
1975-09-25 @ Floriana L 1-337.5 1069 1231 13.90% 33.08% 53.02%-0.76 -7.8 1
1975-09-25 St. Georges W 2-043.9 981 1174 13.54% 32.56% 53.90%-0.87 +24.7 2
1975-09-25 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-243.9 1174 981 53.90% 32.56% 13.54%+0.87 -24.7 2
1975-09-25 Valletta L 1-341.3 1080 1150 24.31% 35.70% 39.99%-0.31 -12.0 2
1975-09-25 @ Senglea Athletic W 3-141.3 1150 1080 39.99% 35.70% 24.31%+0.31 +12.1 3
1975-09-25 Sliema Wanderers D 1-149.9 1079 1155 23.66% 35.62% 40.72%-0.33 +0.8 1
1975-09-25 @ Zebbug Rangers D 1-149.9 1155 1079 40.72% 35.62% 23.66%+0.33 -0.8 1
1975-10-09 Valletta D 3-358.9 1239 1162 43.66% 35.35% 20.99%+0.37 -0.7 5
1975-10-09 @ Floriana D 3-358.9 1162 1239 20.99% 35.35% 43.66%-0.37 +0.7 4
1975-10-09 Zebbug Rangers L 3-454.2 1061 1080 30.98% 36.12% 32.90%-0.07 -7.6 1
1975-10-09 @ Marsa W 4-354.2 1080 1061 32.90% 36.12% 30.98%+0.07 +7.6 3
1975-10-09 Sliema Wanderers D 0-045.6 1006 1154 16.69% 34.01% 49.29%-0.66 +1.9 3
1975-10-09 @ Msida St. Joseph D 0-045.6 1154 1006 49.29% 34.01% 16.69%+0.66 -1.9 2
1975-10-09 Hibernians D 0-045.0 1068 1101 29.03% 36.07% 34.91%-0.13 +0.3 3
1975-10-09 @ Senglea Athletic D 0-045.0 1101 1068 34.91% 36.07% 29.03%+0.13 -0.3 4
1975-10-09 Birkirkara W 1-039.1 1149 1083 42.34% 35.54% 22.13%+0.32 +6.9 4
1975-10-09 @ St. Georges L 0-139.1 1083 1149 22.13% 35.54% 42.34%-0.32 -6.9 1
1975-10-16 Marsa L 1-249.0 1077 1054 36.74% 36.03% 27.23%+0.12 -9.2 1
1975-10-16 @ Birkirkara W 2-149.0 1054 1077 27.23% 36.03% 36.74%-0.12 +9.2 3
1975-10-16 Senglea Athletic L 1-251.1 1152 1068 44.53% 35.21% 20.26%+0.40 -10.6 2
1975-10-16 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-151.1 1068 1152 20.26% 35.21% 44.53%-0.40 +10.6 5
1975-10-16 Hibernians W 3-033.9 1156 1100 41.08% 35.69% 23.23%+0.27 +19.6 6
1975-10-16 @ St. Georges L 0-333.9 1100 1156 23.23% 35.69% 41.08%-0.27 -19.6 4
1975-10-16 Floriana L 1-341.3 1163 1238 23.75% 35.63% 40.62%-0.33 -11.9 4
1975-10-16 @ Valletta W 3-141.3 1238 1163 40.62% 35.63% 23.75%+0.33 +11.9 7
1975-10-16 Msida St. Joseph D 1-149.9 1087 1008 44.03% 35.29% 20.68%+0.38 -1.2 4
1975-10-16 @ Zebbug Rangers D 1-149.9 1008 1087 20.68% 35.29% 44.03%-0.38 +1.2 4
1975-10-23 Zebbug Rangers D 1-149.7 1067 1086 30.91% 36.12% 32.97%-0.07 +0.1 2
1975-10-23 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.7 1086 1067 32.97% 36.12% 30.91%+0.07 -0.1 5
1975-10-23 Valletta W 3-256.6 1009 1151 17.17% 34.18% 48.65%-0.64 +10.8 6
1975-10-23 @ Msida St. Joseph L 2-356.6 1151 1009 48.65% 34.18% 17.17%+0.64 -10.8 4
1975-10-23 Marsa L 1-248.7 1079 1063 35.82% 36.07% 28.11%+0.09 -9.0 5
1975-10-23 @ Senglea Athletic W 2-148.7 1063 1079 28.11% 36.07% 35.82%-0.09 +9.0 5
1975-10-23 Hibernians W 1-039.3 1142 1081 41.72% 35.61% 22.66%+0.30 +7.0 4
1975-10-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-139.3 1081 1142 22.66% 35.61% 41.72%-0.30 -7.0 4
1975-10-23 Floriana D 2-255.4 1176 1250 23.83% 35.64% 40.53%-0.32 +0.6 7
1975-10-23 @ St. Georges D 2-255.4 1250 1176 40.53% 35.64% 23.83%+0.32 -0.6 8
1975-11-07 Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.7 1067 1149 23.06% 35.54% 41.40%-0.36 -6.7 2
1975-11-07 @ Birkirkara W 2-144.7 1149 1067 41.40% 35.54% 23.06%+0.36 +6.7 6
1975-11-07 Hibernians L 0-147.9 1249 1074 54.37% 32.60% 13.03%+0.83 -13.2 8
1975-11-07 @ Floriana W 1-047.9 1074 1249 13.03% 32.60% 54.37%-0.83 +13.2 6
1975-11-07 Senglea Athletic L 0-239.0 1072 1070 33.90% 36.13% 29.98%+0.03 -17.4 5
1975-11-07 @ Marsa W 2-039.0 1070 1072 29.98% 36.13% 33.90%-0.03 +17.4 7
1975-11-07 Msida St. Joseph L 1-252.1 1140 1020 48.73% 34.34% 16.92%+0.57 -11.4 4
1975-11-07 @ Valletta W 2-152.1 1020 1140 16.92% 34.34% 48.73%-0.57 +11.4 8
1975-11-07 St. Georges W 2-150.5 1086 1176 22.09% 35.39% 42.53%-0.40 +10.2 7
1975-11-07 @ Zebbug Rangers L 1-250.5 1176 1086 42.53% 35.39% 22.09%+0.40 -10.2 7
1975-11-21 Senglea Athletic L 1-344.2 1087 1087 33.55% 36.13% 30.32%+0.02 -14.9 6
1975-11-21 @ Hibernians W 3-144.2 1087 1087 30.32% 36.13% 33.55%-0.02 +14.9 9
1975-11-21 Floriana D 0-046.0 1055 1236 14.25% 32.95% 52.80%-0.82 +2.3 6
1975-11-21 @ Marsa D 0-046.0 1236 1055 52.80% 32.95% 14.25%+0.82 -2.3 9
1975-11-21 Zebbug Rangers L 1-245.3 1031 1096 24.90% 35.77% 39.33%-0.28 -7.1 8
1975-11-21 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-145.3 1096 1031 39.33% 35.77% 24.90%+0.28 +7.1 9
1975-11-21 Birkirkara D 1-150.1 1155 1061 45.80% 34.98% 19.21%+0.45 -1.4 7
1975-11-21 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-150.1 1061 1155 19.21% 34.98% 45.80%-0.45 +1.4 3
1975-11-21 St. Georges W 3-144.8 1129 1166 28.44% 36.04% 35.52%-0.15 +15.5 6
1975-11-21 @ Valletta L 1-344.8 1166 1129 35.52% 36.04% 28.44%+0.15 -15.5 7
1975-12-05 St. Georges D 0-045.2 1062 1151 22.26% 35.41% 42.32%-0.39 +1.1 4
1975-12-05 @ Birkirkara D 0-045.2 1151 1062 42.32% 35.41% 22.26%+0.39 -1.1 8
1975-12-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-235.5 1072 1154 22.98% 35.53% 41.50%-0.36 -13.4 6
1975-12-05 @ Hibernians W 2-035.5 1154 1072 41.50% 35.53% 22.98%+0.36 +13.4 9
1975-12-05 Floriana L 1-240.5 1024 1234 12.52% 31.91% 55.57%-0.95 -4.1 8
1975-12-05 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-140.5 1234 1024 55.57% 31.91% 12.52%+0.95 +4.0 11
1975-12-05 Marsa W 3-139.8 1145 1057 44.99% 35.13% 19.88%+0.42 +10.5 8
1975-12-05 @ Valletta L 1-339.8 1057 1145 19.88% 35.13% 44.99%-0.42 -10.4 6
1975-12-05 Senglea Athletic W 2-037.9 1103 1102 33.77% 36.13% 30.10%+0.02 +16.1 11
1975-12-05 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-237.9 1102 1103 30.10% 36.13% 33.77%-0.02 -16.1 9
1975-12-19 Senglea Athletic D 1-149.7 1063 1086 30.35% 36.11% 33.54%-0.09 +0.1 5
1975-12-19 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.7 1086 1063 33.54% 36.11% 30.35%+0.09 -0.2 10
1975-12-19 Floriana D 0-046.0 1059 1238 14.40% 33.02% 52.58%-0.81 +2.3 7
1975-12-19 @ Hibernians D 0-046.0 1238 1059 52.58% 33.02% 14.40%+0.81 -2.3 12
1975-12-19 Sliema Wanderers L 1-436.9 1047 1167 19.04% 34.74% 46.22%-0.54 -14.2 6
1975-12-19 @ Marsa W 4-136.9 1167 1047 46.22% 34.74% 19.04%+0.54 +14.2 11
1975-12-19 Msida St. Joseph D 0-045.6 1149 1020 49.67% 34.10% 16.23%+0.61 -2.0 9
1975-12-19 @ St. Georges D 0-045.6 1020 1149 16.23% 34.10% 49.67%-0.61 +2.0 9
1975-12-19 Valletta L 0-637.5 1120 1155 28.64% 36.05% 35.31%-0.15 -43.2 11
1975-12-19 @ Zebbug Rangers W 6-037.5 1155 1120 35.31% 36.05% 28.64%+0.15 +43.2 10
1976-01-09 Zebbug Rangers W 1-036.0 1236 1076 52.77% 33.17% 14.06%+0.75 +4.8 14
1976-01-09 @ Floriana L 0-136.0 1076 1236 14.06% 33.17% 52.77%-0.75 -4.8 11
1976-01-09 Valletta D 0-045.6 1061 1198 17.57% 34.31% 48.11%-0.61 +1.8 8
1976-01-09 @ Hibernians D 0-045.6 1198 1061 48.11% 34.31% 17.57%+0.61 -1.8 11
1976-01-09 Marsa D 1-149.7 1022 1032 32.15% 36.14% 31.72%-0.03 -0.0 10
1976-01-09 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-149.7 1032 1022 31.72% 36.14% 32.15%+0.03 +0.0 7
1976-01-09 Birkirkara D 1-149.7 1086 1063 36.74% 36.03% 27.23%+0.12 -0.5 11
1976-01-09 @ Senglea Athletic D 1-149.7 1063 1086 27.23% 36.03% 36.74%-0.12 +0.5 6
1976-01-09 St. Georges W 1-040.4 1182 1147 38.27% 35.94% 25.79%+0.17 +7.7 13
1976-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-140.4 1147 1182 25.79% 35.94% 38.27%-0.17 -7.7 9
1976-01-23 Floriana L 1-337.7 1064 1240 14.58% 33.11% 52.31%-0.79 -8.1 6
1976-01-23 @ Birkirkara W 3-137.7 1240 1064 52.31% 33.11% 14.58%+0.79 +8.1 16
1976-01-23 Msida St. Joseph W 3-141.5 1063 1022 39.14% 35.87% 24.99%+0.20 +12.3 10
1976-01-23 @ Hibernians L 1-341.5 1022 1063 24.99% 35.87% 39.14%-0.20 -12.3 10
1976-01-23 Valletta W 4-141.1 1189 1196 32.57% 36.14% 31.29%-0.02 +20.2 15
1976-01-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-441.1 1196 1189 31.29% 36.14% 32.57%+0.02 -20.2 11
1976-01-23 Senglea Athletic W 1-039.5 1140 1086 40.89% 35.71% 23.40%+0.27 +7.2 11
1976-01-23 @ St. Georges L 0-139.5 1086 1140 23.40% 35.71% 40.89%-0.27 -7.2 11
1976-01-23 Marsa W 1-040.1 1072 1032 38.95% 35.89% 25.16%+0.20 +7.6 13
1976-01-23 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-140.1 1032 1072 25.16% 35.89% 38.95%-0.20 -7.6 7
1976-01-30 Msida St. Joseph W 2-036.0 1056 1010 39.84% 35.81% 24.35%+0.23 +14.0 8
1976-01-30 @ Birkirkara L 0-236.0 1010 1056 24.35% 35.81% 39.84%-0.23 -14.0 10
1976-01-30 Hibernians D 1-149.8 1025 1075 26.73% 35.93% 37.34%-0.21 +0.5 8
1976-01-30 @ Marsa D 1-149.8 1075 1025 37.34% 35.93% 26.73%+0.21 -0.5 11
1976-01-30 Sliema Wanderers L 0-434.6 1147 1209 25.22% 35.80% 38.98%-0.27 -27.1 11
1976-01-30 @ St. Georges W 4-034.6 1209 1147 38.98% 35.80% 25.22%+0.27 +27.1 17
1976-01-30 Senglea Athletic D 0-045.4 1176 1078 46.19% 34.91% 18.90%+0.47 -1.6 12
1976-01-30 @ Valletta D 0-045.4 1078 1176 18.90% 34.91% 46.19%-0.47 +1.6 12
1976-01-30 Floriana L 0-330.8 1079 1249 15.08% 33.35% 51.57%-0.76 -14.0 13
1976-01-30 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-030.8 1249 1079 51.57% 33.35% 15.08%+0.76 +14.0 18
1976-02-06 Sliema Wanderers L 1-249.5 1262 1237 37.18% 36.01% 26.81%+0.14 -9.3 18
1976-02-06 @ Floriana W 2-149.5 1237 1262 26.81% 36.01% 37.18%-0.14 +9.2 19
1976-02-06 Hibernians L 2-349.4 996 1074 23.33% 35.58% 41.09%-0.34 -6.4 10
1976-02-06 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-249.4 1074 996 41.09% 35.58% 23.33%+0.34 +6.4 13
1976-02-06 Zebbug Rangers D 2-255.0 1080 1065 35.67% 36.08% 28.26%+0.09 -0.3 13
1976-02-06 @ Senglea Athletic D 2-255.0 1065 1080 28.26% 36.08% 35.67%-0.09 +0.3 14
1976-02-06 Marsa D 0-045.3 1120 1025 45.81% 34.98% 19.21%+0.45 -1.5 12
1976-02-06 @ St. Georges D 0-045.3 1025 1120 19.21% 34.98% 45.81%-0.45 +1.5 9
1976-02-06 Birkirkara W 2-143.1 1175 1070 47.00% 34.74% 18.25%+0.50 +5.6 14
1976-02-06 @ Valletta L 1-243.1 1070 1175 18.25% 34.74% 47.00%-0.50 -5.7 8
1976-02-20 St. Georges W 4-241.8 1253 1118 50.26% 33.94% 15.80%+0.64 +7.8 20
1976-02-20 @ Floriana L 2-441.8 1118 1253 15.80% 33.94% 50.26%-0.64 -7.8 12
1976-02-20 Zebbug Rangers D 1-149.7 1081 1065 35.76% 36.07% 28.16%+0.09 -0.4 14
1976-02-20 @ Hibernians D 1-149.7 1065 1081 28.16% 36.07% 35.76%-0.09 +0.4 15
1976-02-20 Valletta L 0-331.2 1027 1180 16.26% 33.85% 49.90%-0.69 -14.9 9
1976-02-20 @ Marsa W 3-031.2 1180 1027 49.90% 33.85% 16.26%+0.69 +14.9 16
1976-02-20 Msida St. Joseph L 0-149.1 1246 989 61.60% 29.30% 9.10%+1.20 -14.6 19
1976-02-20 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-049.1 989 1246 9.10% 29.30% 61.60%-1.20 +14.6 12
1976-03-06 Msida St. Joseph W 1-033.3 1261 1004 61.65% 29.27% 9.08%+1.20 +3.1 22
1976-03-06 @ Floriana L 0-133.3 1004 1261 9.08% 29.27% 61.65%-1.20 -3.1 12
1976-03-06 St. Georges W 4-357.7 1012 1111 21.19% 35.22% 43.59%-0.44 +9.6 11
1976-03-06 @ Marsa L 3-457.7 1111 1012 43.59% 35.22% 21.19%+0.44 -9.6 12
1976-03-06 Sliema Wanderers L 0-431.4 1080 1231 16.42% 33.91% 49.67%-0.68 -19.6 13
1976-03-06 @ Senglea Athletic W 4-031.4 1231 1080 49.67% 33.91% 16.42%+0.68 +19.6 21
1976-03-06 Hibernians L 2-356.5 1195 1081 48.08% 34.50% 17.42%+0.55 -10.7 16
1976-03-06 @ Valletta W 3-256.5 1081 1195 17.42% 34.50% 48.08%-0.55 +10.7 16
1976-03-06 Birkirkara D 0-045.0 1066 1064 33.84% 36.13% 30.03%+0.03 -0.2 16
1976-03-06 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-045.0 1064 1066 30.03% 36.13% 33.84%-0.03 +0.2 9
1976-03-20 Senglea Athletic D 0-046.5 1264 1060 57.03% 31.53% 11.45%+0.96 -2.8 23
1976-03-20 @ Floriana D 0-046.5 1060 1264 11.45% 31.53% 57.03%-0.96 +2.8 14
1976-03-20 St. Georges W 1-042.1 1091 1101 32.22% 36.14% 31.64%-0.03 +8.8 18
1976-03-20 @ Hibernians L 0-142.1 1101 1091 31.64% 36.14% 32.22%+0.03 -8.8 12
1976-03-20 Birkirkara W 1-044.2 1001 1064 25.11% 35.79% 39.09%-0.27 +10.2 14
1976-03-20 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-144.2 1064 1001 39.09% 35.79% 25.11%+0.27 -10.2 9
1976-03-20 Marsa W 4-133.0 1251 1022 59.28% 30.49% 10.24%+1.07 +8.2 23
1976-03-20 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-433.0 1022 1251 10.24% 30.49% 59.28%-1.07 -8.2 11
1976-03-20 Zebbug Rangers L 0-146.7 1185 1066 48.56% 34.39% 17.05%+0.57 -12.0 16
1976-03-20 @ Valletta W 1-046.7 1066 1185 17.05% 34.39% 48.56%-0.57 +12.0 18
1976-03-27 Birkirkara D 0-046.5 1261 1054 57.32% 31.40% 11.28%+0.97 -2.8 24
1976-03-27 @ Floriana D 0-046.5 1054 1261 11.28% 31.40% 57.32%-0.97 +2.9 10
1976-03-27 Msida St. Joseph L 2-352.7 1013 1011 33.93% 36.12% 29.95%+0.03 -8.2 11
1976-03-27 @ Marsa W 3-252.7 1011 1013 29.95% 36.12% 33.93%-0.03 +8.2 16
1976-03-27 St. Georges D 0-045.0 1063 1092 29.49% 36.08% 34.43%-0.12 +0.3 15
1976-03-27 @ Senglea Athletic D 0-045.0 1092 1063 34.43% 36.08% 29.49%+0.12 -0.3 13
1976-03-27 Sliema Wanderers D 1-150.2 1173 1259 22.48% 35.45% 42.07%-0.38 +1.0 17
1976-03-27 @ Valletta D 1-150.2 1259 1173 42.07% 35.45% 22.48%+0.38 -1.0 24
1976-03-27 Hibernians W 1-042.6 1078 1100 30.42% 36.11% 33.47%-0.09 +9.1 20
1976-03-27 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-142.6 1100 1078 33.47% 36.11% 30.42%+0.09 -9.1 18
1976-04-03 Birkirkara W 1-040.3 1091 1057 38.26% 35.94% 25.80%+0.17 +7.7 20
1976-04-03 @ Hibernians L 0-140.3 1057 1091 25.80% 35.94% 38.26%-0.17 -7.7 10
1976-04-03 Senglea Athletic W 2-148.9 1019 1063 27.54% 35.99% 36.47%-0.18 +9.1 18
1976-04-03 @ Msida St. Joseph L 1-248.9 1063 1019 36.47% 35.99% 27.54%+0.18 -9.1 15
1976-04-03 Zebbug Rangers W 2-141.1 1258 1087 53.95% 32.76% 13.30%+0.81 +4.3 26
1976-04-03 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-241.1 1087 1258 13.30% 32.76% 53.95%-0.81 -4.3 20
1976-04-03 Valletta D 2-255.3 1092 1173 23.01% 35.53% 41.46%-0.36 +0.7 14
1976-04-03 @ St. Georges D 2-255.3 1173 1092 41.46% 35.53% 23.01%+0.36 -0.7 18
1976-04-17 Birkirkara D 0-045.0 1005 1049 27.51% 35.99% 36.50%-0.19 +0.5 12
1976-04-17 @ Marsa D 0-045.0 1049 1005 36.50% 35.99% 27.51%+0.19 -0.5 11
1976-04-17 Floriana D 0-046.3 1054 1258 12.82% 32.12% 55.06%-0.92 +2.6 16
1976-04-17 @ Senglea Athletic D 0-046.3 1258 1054 55.06% 32.12% 12.82%+0.92 -2.6 25

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1976-04-24 Zebbug Rangers W 3-035.9 1099 1082 34.24% 36.11% 29.65%+0.07 +23.1 1-0
1976-04-24 @ Hibernians L 0-335.9 1082 1099 29.65% 36.11% 34.24%-0.07 -23.1 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1976-02-20 9.10% Msida St. Joseph 989 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1246 0
2 1975-11-07 13.03% Hibernians 1074 1 @ Floriana 1249 0
3 1975-09-25 13.54% @ Msida St. Joseph 981 2 St. Georges 1174 0
4 1975-11-07 16.92% Msida St. Joseph 1020 2 @ Valletta 1140 1
5 1976-03-20 17.05% Zebbug Rangers 1066 1 @ Valletta 1185 0
6 1975-10-23 17.17% @ Msida St. Joseph 1009 3 Valletta 1151 2
7 1976-03-06 17.42% Hibernians 1081 3 @ Valletta 1195 2
8 1975-10-16 20.26% Senglea Athletic 1068 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1152 1
9 1976-03-06 21.19% @ Marsa 1012 4 St. Georges 1111 3
10 1975-11-07 22.09% @ Zebbug Rangers 1086 2 St. Georges 1176 1
11 1976-03-20 25.11% @ Msida St. Joseph 1001 1 Birkirkara 1064 0
12 1976-02-06 26.81% Sliema Wanderers 1237 2 @ Floriana 1262 1
13 1975-10-16 27.23% Marsa 1054 2 @ Birkirkara 1077 1
14 1976-04-03 27.54% @ Msida St. Joseph 1019 2 Senglea Athletic 1063 1
15 1975-10-23 28.11% Marsa 1063 2 @ Senglea Athletic 1079 1
16 1975-11-21 28.44% @ Valletta 1129 3 St. Georges 1166 1
17 1976-03-27 29.95% Msida St. Joseph 1011 3 @ Marsa 1013 2
18 1975-11-07 29.98% Senglea Athletic 1070 2 @ Marsa 1072 0
19 1975-09-25 30.11% Hibernians 1092 1 @ Birkirkara 1093 0
20 1975-11-21 30.32% Senglea Athletic 1087 3 @ Hibernians 1087 1
21 1976-03-27 30.42% @ Zebbug Rangers 1078 1 Hibernians 1100 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-12-19 43.24 Valletta 6 1155 35.31% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1120 28.64% 36.05%
2 1976-01-30 27.11 Sliema Wanderers 4 1209 38.98% @ St. Georges 0 1147 25.22% 35.80%
3 1975-09-25 24.70 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 981 13.54% St. Georges 0 1174 53.90% 32.56%
4 1976-04-24 * 23.13 @ Hibernians 3 1099 34.24% Zebbug Rangers 0 1082 29.65% 36.11%
5 1976-01-23 20.20 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1189 32.57% Valletta 1 1196 31.29% 36.14%
6 1975-10-16 19.62 @ St. Georges 3 1156 41.08% Hibernians 0 1100 23.23% 35.69%
7 1976-03-06 19.59 Sliema Wanderers 4 1231 49.67% @ Senglea Athletic 0 1080 16.42% 33.91%
8 1975-11-07 17.38 Senglea Athletic 2 1070 29.98% @ Marsa 0 1072 33.90% 36.13%
9 1975-12-05 16.09 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1103 33.77% Senglea Athletic 0 1102 30.10% 36.13%
10 1975-11-21 15.52 @ Valletta 3 1129 28.44% St. Georges 1 1166 35.52% 36.04%
11 1975-11-21 14.94 Senglea Athletic 3 1087 30.32% @ Hibernians 1 1087 33.55% 36.13%
12 1976-02-20 14.88 Valletta 3 1180 49.90% @ Marsa 0 1027 16.26% 33.85%
13 1976-02-20 14.61 Msida St. Joseph 1 989 9.10% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1246 61.60% 29.30%
14 1975-12-19 14.25 Sliema Wanderers 4 1167 46.22% @ Marsa 1 1047 19.04% 34.74%
15 1976-01-30 13.96 @ Birkirkara 2 1056 39.84% Msida St. Joseph 0 1010 24.35% 35.81%
16 1976-01-30 13.95 Floriana 3 1249 51.57% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1079 15.08% 33.35%
17 1975-12-05 13.38 Sliema Wanderers 2 1154 41.50% @ Hibernians 0 1072 22.98% 35.53%
18 1975-11-07 13.23 Hibernians 1 1074 13.03% @ Floriana 0 1249 54.37% 32.60%
19 1975-09-11 12.90 @ St. Georges 2 1161 42.75% Zebbug Rangers 0 1092 21.77% 35.48%
20 1976-01-23 12.31 @ Hibernians 3 1063 39.14% Msida St. Joseph 1 1022 24.99% 35.87%
21 1975-09-25 12.06 Valletta 3 1150 39.99% @ Senglea Athletic 1 1080 24.31% 35.70%
22 1976-03-20 12.05 Zebbug Rangers 1 1066 17.05% @ Valletta 0 1185 48.56% 34.39%
23 1975-10-16 11.86 Floriana 3 1238 40.62% @ Valletta 1 1163 23.75% 35.63%
24 1975-11-07 11.39 Msida St. Joseph 2 1020 16.92% @ Valletta 1 1140 48.73% 34.34%
25 1975-10-23 10.77 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 1009 17.17% Valletta 2 1151 48.65% 34.18%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-10-09 58.9 @ Floriana 3 1239 43.66% Valletta 3 1162 20.99% 35.35%
2 1976-03-06 57.7 @ Marsa 4 1012 21.19% St. Georges 3 1111 43.59% 35.22%
3 1975-10-23 56.6 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 1009 17.17% Valletta 2 1151 48.65% 34.18%
4 1976-03-06 56.5 Hibernians 3 1081 17.42% @ Valletta 2 1195 48.08% 34.50%
5 1975-10-23 55.4 @ St. Georges 2 1176 23.83% Floriana 2 1250 40.53% 35.64%
6 1976-04-03 55.3 @ St. Georges 2 1092 23.01% Valletta 2 1173 41.46% 35.53%
7 1976-02-06 55.0 @ Senglea Athletic 2 1080 35.67% Zebbug Rangers 2 1065 28.26% 36.08%
8 1975-10-09 54.2 Zebbug Rangers 4 1080 32.90% @ Marsa 3 1061 30.98% 36.12%
9 1976-03-27 52.7 Msida St. Joseph 3 1011 29.95% @ Marsa 2 1013 33.93% 36.12%
10 1975-11-07 52.1 Msida St. Joseph 2 1020 16.92% @ Valletta 1 1140 48.73% 34.34%
11 1975-10-16 51.1 Senglea Athletic 2 1068 20.26% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1152 44.53% 35.21%
12 1975-11-07 50.5 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1086 22.09% St. Georges 1 1176 42.53% 35.39%
13 1976-03-27 50.2 @ Valletta 1 1173 22.48% Sliema Wanderers 1 1259 42.07% 35.45%
14 1975-11-21 50.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1155 45.80% Birkirkara 1 1061 19.21% 34.98%
15 1975-09-25 49.9 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1079 23.66% Sliema Wanderers 1 1155 40.72% 35.62%
16 1975-10-16 49.9 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1087 44.03% Msida St. Joseph 1 1008 20.68% 35.29%
17 1975-09-11 49.8 @ Birkirkara 1 1092 25.65% Valletta 1 1151 38.51% 35.84%
18 1976-01-30 49.8 @ Marsa 1 1025 26.73% Hibernians 1 1075 37.34% 35.93%
19 1975-09-11 49.7 @ Hibernians 1 1092 36.81% Marsa 1 1069 27.16% 36.03%
20 1975-10-23 49.7 @ Birkirkara 1 1067 30.91% Zebbug Rangers 1 1086 32.97% 36.12%
21 1975-12-19 49.7 @ Birkirkara 1 1063 30.35% Senglea Athletic 1 1086 33.54% 36.11%
22 1976-01-09 49.7 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 1022 32.15% Marsa 1 1032 31.72% 36.14%
23 1976-01-09 49.7 @ Senglea Athletic 1 1086 36.74% Birkirkara 1 1063 27.23% 36.03%
24 1976-02-20 49.7 @ Hibernians 1 1081 35.76% Zebbug Rangers 1 1065 28.16% 36.07%
25 1976-02-06 49.5 Sliema Wanderers 2 1237 26.81% @ Floriana 1 1262 37.18% 36.01%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-01-30 30.8 Floriana 3 1249 51.57% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1079 15.08% 33.35%
2 1976-02-20 31.2 Valletta 3 1180 49.90% @ Marsa 0 1027 16.26% 33.85%
3 1976-03-06 31.4 Sliema Wanderers 4 1231 49.67% @ Senglea Athletic 0 1080 16.42% 33.91%
4 1976-03-20 33.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1251 59.28% Marsa 1 1022 10.24% 30.49%
5 1976-03-06 33.3 @ Floriana 1 1261 61.65% Msida St. Joseph 0 1004 9.08% 29.27%
6 1975-10-16 33.9 @ St. Georges 3 1156 41.08% Hibernians 0 1100 23.23% 35.69%
7 1976-01-30 34.6 Sliema Wanderers 4 1209 38.98% @ St. Georges 0 1147 25.22% 35.80%
8 1975-09-11 35.2 @ St. Georges 2 1161 42.75% Zebbug Rangers 0 1092 21.77% 35.48%
9 1975-12-05 35.5 Sliema Wanderers 2 1154 41.50% @ Hibernians 0 1072 22.98% 35.53%
10 1976-04-24 * 35.9 @ Hibernians 3 1099 34.24% Zebbug Rangers 0 1082 29.65% 36.11%
11 1976-01-09 36.0 @ Floriana 1 1236 52.77% Zebbug Rangers 0 1076 14.06% 33.17%
12 1976-01-30 36.0 @ Birkirkara 2 1056 39.84% Msida St. Joseph 0 1010 24.35% 35.81%
13 1975-12-19 36.9 Sliema Wanderers 4 1167 46.22% @ Marsa 1 1047 19.04% 34.74%
14 1975-09-25 37.5 @ Floriana 3 1231 53.02% Marsa 1 1069 13.90% 33.08%
15 1975-12-19 37.5 Valletta 6 1155 35.31% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1120 28.64% 36.05%
16 1976-01-23 37.7 Floriana 3 1240 52.31% @ Birkirkara 1 1064 14.58% 33.11%
17 1975-12-05 37.9 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1103 33.77% Senglea Athletic 0 1102 30.10% 36.13%
18 1975-11-07 39.0 Senglea Athletic 2 1070 29.98% @ Marsa 0 1072 33.90% 36.13%
19 1975-10-09 39.1 @ St. Georges 1 1149 42.34% Birkirkara 0 1083 22.13% 35.54%
20 1975-10-23 39.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1142 41.72% Hibernians 0 1081 22.66% 35.61%
21 1976-01-23 39.5 @ St. Georges 1 1140 40.89% Senglea Athletic 0 1086 23.40% 35.71%
22 1975-12-05 39.8 @ Valletta 3 1145 44.99% Marsa 1 1057 19.88% 35.13%
23 1976-01-23 40.1 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1072 38.95% Marsa 0 1032 25.16% 35.89%
24 1975-09-11 40.3 Floriana 1 1223 38.78% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1162 25.40% 35.82%
25 1976-04-03 40.3 @ Hibernians 1 1091 38.26% Birkirkara 0 1057 25.80% 35.94%