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1974-75 Maltese First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Floriana

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floriana

6.69 points above expected

31 points · 24.31 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mosta

8.12 points below expected

3 points · 11.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 18 14 3 1 31 36 9 +27 24.31 +6.69
2 Sliema Wanderers 18 11 2 5 24 30 20 +10 21.60 +2.40
3 St. Georges 18 8 7 3 23 21 12 +9 18.04 +4.96
4 Birkirkara 18 8 4 6 20 17 21 -4 17.43 +2.57
5 Valletta 18 8 3 7 19 21 15 +6 21.48 -2.48
6 Zebbug Rangers 18 4 8 6 16 16 16 0 16.45 -0.45
7 Marsa 18 6 3 9 15 16 17 -1 17.44 -2.44
8 Hibernians 18 5 5 8 15 16 19 -3 16.74 -1.74
9 Gzira United 18 5 4 9 14 14 28 -14 15.39 -1.39
10 Mosta 18 1 1 16 3 10 40 -30 11.12 -8.12

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floriana 31 24.31 +6.69
2 St. Georges 23 18.04 +4.96
3 Birkirkara 20 17.43 +2.57
4 Sliema Wanderers 24 21.60 +2.40
5 Zebbug Rangers 16 16.45 -0.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mosta 3 11.12 -8.12
2 Valletta 19 21.48 -2.48
3 Marsa 15 17.44 -2.44
4 Hibernians 15 16.74 -1.74
5 Gzira United 14 15.39 -1.39

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Floriana 1409 31 +35 7 7.7 -0.7
Sliema Wanderers 1295 24 -2 7 6.4 +0.6
St. Georges 1281 23 +49 8 5.5 +2.5
Birkirkara 1158 20 -11 4 4.3 -0.3
Valletta 1255 19 +35 6 5.8 +0.2
Zebbug Rangers 1151 16 -19 3 3.9 -0.9
Hibernians 1152 15 +38 7 4.6 +2.4
Marsa 1109 15 -42 3 5.3 -2.3
Gzira United 1073 14 -60 4 4.3 -0.3
Mosta 941 3 +0 2 2.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO GU HIB MAR MOS SW SG VAL ZR
Birkirkara —
0-0-2
1.32
2-0-0
2.84
0-2-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.82
1-0-1
1.84
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.84
Floriana
2-0-0
4.23
 —
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.67
2-0-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.80
1-1-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.92
Gzira United
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
1.55
 —
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.30
0-0-2
1.64
0-2-0
1.99
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
2.57
Hibernians
0-2-0
2.30
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
3.16
 —
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.98
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.21
Marsa
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.23
 —
1-0-1
4.32
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
2.25
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-1
2.90
Mosta
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
1.23
 —
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
1.22
0-1-1
2.23
Sliema Wanderers
1-0-1
3.70
0-0-2
2.56
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.64
2-0-0
3.44
 —
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.38
0-2-0
3.60
St. Georges
0-1-1
2.37
1-0-1
1.73
0-2-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
1.90
 —
1-1-0
2.16
1-1-0
3.45
Valletta
1-0-1
3.11
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
3.70
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.70
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
3.37
 —
2-0-0
3.25
Zebbug Rangers
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
2.96
0-1-1
3.32
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
3.30
0-2-0
1.94
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
2.28
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +8.6
Allowed 0.71 -7.1
Differential 0.92 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%13.89%8.33%2.78%1.67%0.56%39.44%
113.89%8.89%6.11%1.11%0.56%1.11%31.67%
28.33%6.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%—17.78%
32.78%1.11%1.11%—0.56%—5.56%
41.67%0.56%1.11%0.56%——3.89%
5+0.56%1.11%————1.67%
Total39.44%31.67%17.78%5.56%3.89%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.09 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.85
CV 1.15 1.15 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
122.22%11.11%5.56%——5.56%44.44%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.17 -0.22
SD 0.87 1.58 1.90
CV 0.92 1.36 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
133.33%11.11%————44.44%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total55.56%38.89%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.50 +1.50
SD 1.97 0.62 1.86
CV 0.99 1.24 —
Max 8 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%22.22%—5.56%—55.56%
15.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.56 -0.78
SD 1.00 2.01 2.29
CV 1.29 1.29 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
2———————
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.06 -0.17
SD 1.23 1.21 1.76
CV 1.39 1.15 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%33.33%5.56%5.56%——50.00%
116.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%50.00%5.56%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 0.94 -0.06
SD 1.28 0.94 1.86
CV 1.44 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%16.67%11.11%11.11%—61.11%
1—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
2————5.56%—5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—33.33%33.33%11.11%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 2.22 -1.67
SD 0.86 1.17 1.46
CV 1.54 0.52 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
216.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.11 +0.56
SD 1.28 1.08 1.46
CV 0.77 0.97 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%————27.78%
116.67%16.67%5.56%———38.89%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%38.89%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.67 +0.50
SD 1.04 0.84 1.10
CV 0.89 1.26 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
227.78%5.56%——5.56%—38.89%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.83 +0.33
SD 0.99 1.10 1.57
CV 0.84 1.32 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%——50.00%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 0.89 +0.00
SD 1.32 0.90 1.61
CV 1.49 1.01 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Floriana 1409 31 24.31 +6.69 99.0% 17 19 21 24 27 30 32
Sliema Wanderers 1295 24 21.60 +2.40 81.0% 15 16 20 21 24 26 29
St. Georges 1281 23 18.04 +4.96 95.0% 11 13 16 18 20 23 25
Valletta 1255 19 21.48 -2.48 25.0% 12 16 19 21 24 27 30
Birkirkara 1158 20 17.43 +2.57 84.0% 8 12 15 18 20 23 29
Hibernians 1152 15 16.74 -1.74 39.0% 4 11 14 16 19 23 26
Zebbug Rangers 1151 16 16.45 -0.45 48.0% 9 10 14 17 19 23 26
Marsa 1109 15 17.44 -2.44 33.0% 9 11 15 17 20 25 26
Gzira United 1073 14 15.39 -1.39 44.0% 9 10 13 15 18 21 25
Mosta 941 3 11.12 -8.12 0.0% 4 6 9 11 13 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
Slight Edge
38.89%22.22%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
188 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
48%
Floriana, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Runaway
00.150.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.82 * Some Luck: 2.82 to 4.22 * Lucky: 4.22 to 5.63 * Wild Swing: 5.63 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.38 * Close: 1.38 to 2.07 * Off: 2.07 to 2.76 * Way Off: 2.76 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.06 points
Some Luck
03.529
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.724
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Floriana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Mosta
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 132.19
1.99
Moderate Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
71%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
94%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.25
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.48
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Floriana48.00%22.00%12.00%10.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%———
Sliema Wanderers16.00%29.00%26.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%——
St. Georges6.00%9.00%4.00%23.00%17.00%8.00%16.00%9.00%7.00%1.00%
Birkirkara3.00%4.00%11.00%9.00%13.00%15.00%16.00%18.00%7.00%4.00%
Valletta14.00%21.00%23.00%22.00%6.00%9.00%3.00%—2.00%—
Zebbug Rangers1.00%5.00%6.00%5.00%18.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%18.00%5.00%
Marsa7.00%6.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%19.00%9.00%6.00%
Hibernians4.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%12.00%15.00%6.00%
Gzira United1.00%1.00%5.00%3.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%15.00%29.00%11.00%
Mosta————2.00%2.00%5.00%11.00%13.00%67.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 98.00% 2.00%
St. Georges 92.00% 8.00%
Birkirkara 89.00% 11.00%
Marsa 85.00% 15.00%
Hibernians 79.00% 21.00%
Zebbug Rangers 77.00% 23.00%
Gzira United 60.00% 40.00%
Mosta 20.00% 80.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1974-09-11 Valletta W 2-149.2 1218 1237 35.49% 23.56% 40.95%-0.10 +17.7 2
1974-09-11 @ Floriana L 1-249.2 1237 1218 40.95% 23.56% 35.49%+0.10 -17.7 0
1974-09-11 Zebbug Rangers D 0-049.9 1145 1140 38.96% 23.56% 37.47%+0.03 -0.2 1
1974-09-11 @ Gzira United D 0-049.9 1140 1145 37.47% 23.56% 38.96%-0.03 +0.2 1
1974-09-11 Marsa W 1-040.1 1205 1144 46.52% 23.51% 29.97%+0.32 +14.7 2
1974-09-11 @ Hibernians L 0-140.1 1144 1205 29.97% 23.51% 46.52%-0.32 -14.7 0
1974-09-11 Mosta W 2-147.0 1236 1205 42.71% 23.55% 33.74%+0.17 +15.2 2
1974-09-11 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-247.0 1205 1236 33.74% 23.55% 42.71%-0.17 -15.2 0
1974-09-11 Birkirkara D 1-155.0 1134 1162 34.28% 23.55% 42.17%-0.15 +0.7 1
1974-09-11 @ St. Georges D 1-155.0 1162 1134 42.17% 23.55% 34.28%+0.15 -0.7 1
1974-09-25 Marsa W 1-041.2 1161 1129 42.66% 23.55% 33.79%+0.17 +16.1 3
1974-09-25 @ Birkirkara L 0-141.2 1129 1161 33.79% 23.55% 42.66%-0.17 -16.1 0
1974-09-25 Valletta L 1-248.4 1219 1219 38.24% 23.56% 38.20%+0.00 -16.7 2
1974-09-25 @ Hibernians W 2-148.4 1219 1219 38.20% 23.56% 38.24%+0.00 +16.7 2
1974-09-25 Gzira United L 0-241.2 1189 1145 44.41% 23.53% 32.06%+0.24 -37.7 0
1974-09-25 @ Mosta W 2-041.2 1145 1189 32.06% 23.53% 44.41%-0.24 +37.7 3
1974-09-25 Sliema Wanderers W 2-152.7 1134 1252 23.31% 23.35% 53.34%-0.62 +22.2 3
1974-09-25 @ St. Georges L 1-252.7 1252 1134 53.34% 23.35% 23.31%+0.62 -22.2 2
1974-09-25 Floriana L 0-138.8 1140 1235 25.75% 23.42% 50.83%-0.51 -13.0 1
1974-09-25 @ Zebbug Rangers W 1-038.8 1235 1140 50.83% 23.42% 25.75%+0.51 +13.0 4
1974-10-09 St. Georges W 1-039.0 1248 1157 50.39% 23.43% 26.17%+0.49 +13.2 6
1974-10-09 @ Floriana L 0-139.0 1157 1248 26.17% 23.43% 50.39%-0.49 -13.2 3
1974-10-09 Birkirkara L 0-239.6 1183 1177 39.00% 23.56% 37.44%+0.03 -34.0 3
1974-10-09 @ Gzira United W 2-039.6 1177 1183 37.44% 23.56% 39.00%-0.03 +34.0 5
1974-10-09 Valletta D 0-050.0 1113 1236 22.72% 23.33% 53.95%-0.65 +3.5 1
1974-10-09 @ Marsa D 0-050.0 1236 1113 53.95% 23.33% 22.72%+0.65 -3.5 3
1974-10-09 Zebbug Rangers L 0-338.3 1152 1127 41.70% 23.55% 34.74%+0.13 -52.0 0
1974-10-09 @ Mosta W 3-038.3 1127 1152 34.74% 23.55% 41.70%-0.13 +52.0 3
1974-10-09 Hibernians W 4-353.7 1229 1203 42.02% 23.55% 34.43%+0.14 +14.3 4
1974-10-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 3-453.7 1203 1229 34.43% 23.55% 42.02%-0.14 -14.3 2
1974-10-16 St. Georges W 3-249.9 1211 1143 47.43% 23.49% 29.07%+0.36 +12.8 7
1974-10-16 @ Birkirkara L 2-349.9 1143 1211 29.07% 23.49% 47.43%-0.36 -12.8 3
1974-10-16 Gzira United W 2-143.9 1261 1149 52.86% 23.37% 23.78%+0.60 +11.5 8
1974-10-16 @ Floriana L 1-243.9 1149 1261 23.78% 23.37% 52.86%-0.60 -11.5 3
1974-10-16 Hibernians W 1-045.4 1117 1188 28.59% 23.48% 47.92%-0.38 +21.4 3
1974-10-16 @ Marsa L 0-145.4 1188 1117 47.92% 23.48% 28.59%+0.38 -21.3 2
1974-10-16 Sliema Wanderers L 0-234.0 1100 1244 20.53% 23.24% 56.22%-0.77 -20.3 0
1974-10-16 @ Mosta W 2-034.0 1244 1100 56.22% 23.24% 20.53%+0.77 +20.3 6
1974-10-16 Zebbug Rangers W 2-037.3 1232 1179 45.60% 23.52% 30.88%+0.28 +28.3 5
1974-10-16 @ Valletta L 0-237.3 1179 1232 30.88% 23.52% 45.60%-0.28 -28.4 3
1974-10-23 Hibernians W 1-038.5 1273 1167 52.08% 23.39% 24.53%+0.56 +12.5 10
1974-10-23 @ Floriana L 0-138.5 1167 1273 24.53% 23.39% 52.08%-0.56 -12.5 2
1974-10-23 Sliema Wanderers L 2-347.8 1137 1264 22.27% 23.32% 54.42%-0.67 -10.3 3
1974-10-23 @ Gzira United W 3-247.8 1264 1137 54.42% 23.32% 22.27%+0.67 +10.3 8
1974-10-23 St. Georges L 1-439.6 1079 1131 31.15% 23.52% 45.33%-0.27 -35.0 0
1974-10-23 @ Mosta W 4-139.6 1131 1079 45.33% 23.52% 31.15%+0.27 +35.0 5
1974-10-23 Marsa L 0-147.3 1261 1138 53.95% 23.33% 22.72%+0.65 -23.8 5
1974-10-23 @ Valletta W 1-047.3 1138 1261 22.72% 23.33% 53.95%-0.65 +23.8 5
1974-10-23 Birkirkara W 5-142.9 1151 1224 28.37% 23.48% 48.14%-0.39 +63.9 5
1974-10-23 @ Zebbug Rangers L 1-542.9 1224 1151 48.14% 23.48% 28.37%+0.39 -63.9 7
1974-11-07 Sliema Wanderers W 3-144.9 1285 1274 39.79% 23.56% 36.65%+0.06 +28.1 12
1974-11-07 @ Floriana L 1-344.9 1274 1285 36.65% 23.56% 39.79%-0.06 -28.1 8
1974-11-07 Marsa L 0-435.2 1127 1162 33.31% 23.55% 43.14%-0.19 -57.1 3
1974-11-07 @ Gzira United W 4-035.2 1162 1127 43.14% 23.55% 33.31%+0.19 +57.1 7
1974-11-07 Zebbug Rangers D 1-155.1 1154 1215 30.02% 23.51% 46.47%-0.32 +1.6 3
1974-11-07 @ Hibernians D 1-155.1 1215 1154 46.47% 23.51% 30.02%+0.32 -1.6 6
1974-11-07 Birkirkara L 0-138.0 1044 1160 23.46% 23.36% 53.18%-0.61 -12.0 0
1974-11-07 @ Mosta W 1-038.0 1160 1044 53.18% 23.36% 23.46%+0.61 +12.0 9
1974-11-07 St. Georges D 1-155.1 1237 1166 47.91% 23.48% 28.60%+0.38 -1.9 6
1974-11-07 @ Valletta D 1-155.1 1166 1237 28.60% 23.48% 47.91%-0.38 +1.9 6
1974-11-21 Sliema Wanderers L 0-235.9 1156 1246 26.32% 23.44% 50.24%-0.48 -25.0 3
1974-11-21 @ Hibernians W 2-035.9 1246 1156 50.24% 23.44% 26.32%+0.48 +25.0 10
1974-11-21 Floriana D 1-155.5 1219 1313 25.84% 23.43% 50.73%-0.50 +2.4 8
1974-11-21 @ Marsa D 1-155.5 1313 1219 50.73% 23.43% 25.84%+0.50 -2.4 13
1974-11-21 Gzira United D 0-049.9 1167 1070 51.12% 23.42% 25.46%+0.52 -2.8 7
1974-11-21 @ St. Georges D 0-049.9 1070 1167 25.46% 23.42% 51.12%-0.52 +2.8 4
1974-11-21 Birkirkara L 0-145.2 1235 1172 46.85% 23.50% 29.64%+0.33 -20.9 6
1974-11-21 @ Valletta W 1-045.2 1172 1235 29.64% 23.50% 46.85%-0.33 +20.9 11
1974-11-21 Mosta D 1-155.1 1213 1032 59.73% 23.06% 17.21%+0.96 -4.4 7
1974-11-21 @ Zebbug Rangers D 1-155.1 1032 1213 17.21% 23.06% 59.73%-0.96 +4.4 1
1974-12-05 Valletta L 0-238.6 1193 1214 35.21% 23.56% 41.23%-0.11 -31.4 11
1974-12-05 @ Birkirkara W 2-038.6 1214 1193 41.23% 23.56% 35.21%+0.11 +31.4 8
1974-12-05 Gzira United L 0-147.9 1221 1073 56.70% 23.22% 20.08%+0.79 -24.9 8
1974-12-05 @ Marsa W 1-047.9 1073 1221 20.08% 23.22% 56.70%-0.79 +24.9 6
1974-12-05 Floriana L 2-439.4 1037 1311 10.73% 22.43% 66.84%-1.46 -8.8 1
1974-12-05 @ Mosta W 4-239.4 1311 1037 66.84% 22.43% 10.73%+1.46 +8.9 15
1974-12-05 St. Georges W 2-144.2 1271 1165 52.15% 23.39% 24.46%+0.57 +11.8 12
1974-12-05 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.2 1165 1271 24.46% 23.39% 52.15%-0.57 -11.8 7
1974-12-05 Hibernians L 0-340.5 1209 1131 48.68% 23.47% 27.85%+0.41 -59.3 7
1974-12-05 @ Zebbug Rangers W 3-040.5 1131 1209 27.85% 23.47% 48.68%-0.41 +59.3 5
1974-12-19 Birkirkara W 2-146.7 1197 1162 43.12% 23.55% 33.34%+0.19 +15.1 10
1974-12-19 @ Marsa L 1-246.7 1162 1197 33.34% 23.55% 43.12%-0.19 -15.0 11
1974-12-19 Valletta L 0-329.9 1028 1246 14.30% 22.84% 62.86%-1.16 -21.6 1
1974-12-19 @ Mosta W 3-029.9 1246 1028 62.86% 22.84% 14.30%+1.16 +21.6 10
1974-12-19 Floriana L 0-141.8 1283 1320 33.08% 23.54% 43.38%-0.20 -15.9 12
1974-12-19 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-041.8 1320 1283 43.38% 23.54% 33.08%+0.20 +15.9 17
1974-12-19 Hibernians W 2-041.0 1153 1190 33.00% 23.54% 43.46%-0.20 +37.1 9
1974-12-19 @ St. Georges L 0-241.0 1190 1153 43.46% 23.54% 33.00%+0.20 -37.1 5
1974-12-19 Gzira United W 1-040.3 1149 1097 45.40% 23.52% 31.08%+0.28 +15.1 9
1974-12-19 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-140.3 1097 1149 31.08% 23.52% 45.40%-0.28 -15.1 6
1975-01-09 Floriana L 0-136.1 1147 1336 16.50% 23.02% 60.48%-1.00 -8.9 11
1975-01-09 @ Birkirkara W 1-036.1 1336 1147 60.48% 23.02% 16.50%+1.00 +8.9 19
1975-01-09 Mosta W 4-031.1 1153 1006 56.52% 23.23% 20.25%+0.78 +38.1 7
1975-01-09 @ Hibernians L 0-431.1 1006 1153 20.25% 23.23% 56.52%-0.78 -38.1 1
1975-01-09 Gzira United W 2-032.8 1267 1082 60.10% 23.04% 16.86%+0.98 +17.2 14
1975-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.8 1082 1267 16.86% 23.04% 60.10%-0.98 -17.2 6
1975-01-09 Valletta W 2-042.7 1190 1267 27.88% 23.47% 48.64%-0.41 +40.8 11
1975-01-09 @ St. Georges L 0-242.7 1267 1190 48.64% 23.47% 27.88%+0.41 -40.8 10
1975-01-09 Marsa W 1-044.5 1164 1212 31.71% 23.53% 44.76%-0.25 +20.1 11
1975-01-09 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-144.5 1212 1164 44.76% 23.53% 31.71%+0.25 -20.1 10
1975-01-23 Mosta W 2-141.9 1138 968 58.70% 23.12% 18.18%+0.90 +9.2 13
1975-01-23 @ Birkirkara L 1-241.9 968 1138 18.18% 23.12% 58.70%-0.90 -9.2 1
1975-01-23 Marsa W 2-034.2 1345 1191 57.14% 23.20% 19.66%+0.81 +19.6 21
1975-01-23 @ Floriana L 0-234.2 1191 1345 19.66% 23.20% 57.14%-0.81 -19.6 10
1975-01-23 Gzira United L 0-342.0 1191 1065 54.34% 23.32% 22.35%+0.67 -65.5 7
1975-01-23 @ Hibernians W 3-042.0 1065 1191 22.35% 23.32% 54.34%-0.67 +65.5 8
1975-01-23 Sliema Wanderers D 2-260.7 1185 1284 25.24% 23.41% 51.35%-0.53 +1.9 12
1975-01-23 @ Zebbug Rangers D 2-260.7 1284 1185 51.35% 23.41% 25.24%+0.53 -1.9 15
1975-01-30 St. Georges D 0-050.0 1131 1231 25.20% 23.41% 51.39%-0.53 +2.9 9
1975-01-30 @ Gzira United D 0-050.0 1231 1131 51.39% 23.41% 25.20%+0.53 -2.9 12
1975-01-30 Floriana L 0-231.8 1126 1364 12.90% 22.70% 64.40%-1.26 -13.5 7
1975-01-30 @ Hibernians W 2-031.8 1364 1126 64.40% 22.70% 12.90%+1.26 +13.5 23
1975-01-30 Zebbug Rangers W 1-043.2 1172 1187 36.13% 23.56% 40.31%-0.08 +18.5 12
1975-01-30 @ Marsa L 0-143.2 1187 1172 40.31% 23.56% 36.13%+0.08 -18.5 12
1975-01-30 Birkirkara L 0-147.7 1282 1147 55.34% 23.28% 21.38%+0.72 -24.4 15
1975-01-30 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-047.7 1147 1282 21.38% 23.28% 55.34%-0.72 +24.3 15
1975-01-30 Mosta W 2-030.8 1226 959 66.40% 22.48% 11.11%+1.42 +11.8 12
1975-01-30 @ Valletta L 0-230.8 959 1226 11.11% 22.48% 66.40%-1.42 -11.8 1
1975-02-06 Hibernians D 0-049.9 1171 1112 46.29% 23.51% 30.20%+0.31 -1.7 16
1975-02-06 @ Birkirkara D 0-049.9 1112 1171 30.20% 23.51% 46.29%-0.31 +1.7 8
1975-02-06 Marsa W 3-034.8 1258 1190 47.45% 23.49% 29.06%+0.36 +39.2 17
1975-02-06 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-334.8 1190 1258 29.06% 23.49% 47.45%-0.36 -39.2 12
1975-02-06 Mosta W 1-033.7 1228 947 67.24% 22.38% 10.38%+1.49 +5.9 14
1975-02-06 @ St. Georges L 0-133.7 947 1228 10.38% 22.38% 67.24%-1.49 -5.9 1
1975-02-06 Floriana D 0-051.0 1238 1378 20.99% 23.26% 55.74%-0.74 +3.9 13
1975-02-06 @ Valletta D 0-051.0 1378 1238 55.74% 23.26% 20.99%+0.74 -3.9 24
1975-02-20 Mosta W 1-031.6 1374 941 74.42% 20.87% 4.70%+2.30 +2.7 26
1975-02-20 @ Floriana L 0-131.6 941 1374 4.70% 20.87% 74.42%-2.30 -2.7 1
1975-02-20 Hibernians D 0-049.9 1134 1114 40.99% 23.56% 35.46%+0.10 -0.6 10
1975-02-20 @ Gzira United D 0-049.9 1114 1134 35.46% 23.56% 40.99%-0.10 +0.6 9
1975-02-20 Sliema Wanderers L 2-446.2 1242 1297 30.66% 23.52% 45.82%-0.29 -21.8 13
1975-02-20 @ Valletta W 4-246.2 1297 1242 45.82% 23.52% 30.66%+0.29 +21.8 19
1975-02-20 St. Georges D 0-050.0 1168 1234 29.31% 23.50% 47.19%-0.35 +1.9 13
1975-02-20 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-050.0 1234 1168 47.19% 23.50% 29.31%+0.35 -1.9 15
1975-03-06 Floriana L 1-831.0 1133 1377 12.56% 22.66% 64.78%-1.29 -35.0 10
1975-03-06 @ Gzira United W 8-131.0 1377 1133 64.78% 22.66% 12.56%+1.29 +34.9 28
1975-03-06 Birkirkara D 1-155.0 1115 1169 30.71% 23.52% 45.77%-0.29 +1.4 10
1975-03-06 @ Hibernians D 1-155.0 1169 1115 45.77% 23.52% 30.71%+0.29 -1.4 17
1975-03-06 St. Georges D 1-155.1 1151 1232 27.46% 23.46% 49.07%-0.43 +2.1 13
1975-03-06 @ Marsa D 1-155.1 1232 1151 49.07% 23.46% 27.46%+0.43 -2.1 16
1975-03-06 Valletta L 0-243.7 1319 1220 51.25% 23.41% 25.34%+0.52 -42.7 19
1975-03-06 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-043.7 1220 1319 25.34% 23.41% 51.25%-0.52 +42.7 15
1975-03-20 Sliema Wanderers L 0-138.5 1168 1276 24.25% 23.38% 52.36%-0.58 -12.4 17
1975-03-20 @ Birkirkara W 1-038.5 1276 1168 52.36% 23.38% 24.25%+0.58 +12.4 21
1975-03-20 Zebbug Rangers D 1-156.0 1412 1170 64.63% 22.68% 12.69%+1.28 -5.5 29
1975-03-20 @ Floriana D 1-156.0 1170 1412 12.69% 22.68% 64.63%-1.28 +5.5 14
1975-03-20 St. Georges D 0-050.0 1116 1230 23.68% 23.36% 52.95%-0.60 +3.2 11
1975-03-20 @ Hibernians D 0-050.0 1230 1116 52.95% 23.36% 23.68%+0.60 -3.2 17
1975-03-20 Marsa L 0-429.3 939 1153 14.54% 22.86% 62.60%-1.14 -28.6 1
1975-03-20 @ Mosta W 4-029.3 1153 939 62.60% 22.86% 14.54%+1.14 +28.6 15
1975-03-20 Gzira United L 1-254.1 1263 1098 58.28% 23.15% 18.58%+0.88 -24.1 15
1975-03-20 @ Valletta W 2-154.1 1098 1263 18.58% 23.15% 58.28%-0.88 +24.1 12
1975-03-27 Birkirkara W 5-029.4 1406 1156 65.26% 22.61% 12.13%+1.33 +29.9 31
1975-03-27 @ Floriana L 0-529.4 1156 1406 12.13% 22.61% 65.26%-1.33 -29.9 17
1975-03-27 Mosta W 2-140.8 1122 910 62.40% 22.88% 14.72%+1.13 +7.6 14
1975-03-27 @ Gzira United L 1-240.8 910 1122 14.72% 22.88% 62.40%-1.13 -7.6 1
1975-03-27 Zebbug Rangers D 0-050.2 1289 1175 52.92% 23.37% 23.72%+0.60 -3.2 22
1975-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-050.2 1175 1289 23.72% 23.37% 52.92%-0.60 +3.2 15
1975-03-27 Marsa W 1-040.8 1227 1182 44.44% 23.53% 32.02%+0.24 +15.5 19
1975-03-27 @ St. Georges L 0-140.8 1182 1227 32.02% 23.53% 44.44%-0.24 -15.5 15
1975-03-27 Hibernians L 0-147.1 1239 1119 53.62% 23.34% 23.04%+0.63 -23.6 15
1975-03-27 @ Valletta W 1-047.1 1119 1239 23.04% 23.34% 53.62%-0.63 +23.6 13
1975-04-03 Zebbug Rangers D 0-049.9 1126 1179 30.94% 23.52% 45.54%-0.28 +1.5 18
1975-04-03 @ Birkirkara D 0-049.9 1179 1126 45.54% 23.52% 30.94%+0.28 -1.5 16
1975-04-03 Valletta L 0-236.0 1130 1215 26.89% 23.45% 49.66%-0.45 -25.4 14
1975-04-03 @ Gzira United W 2-036.0 1215 1130 49.66% 23.45% 26.89%+0.45 +25.4 17
1975-04-03 Mosta L 1-352.7 1166 902 66.17% 22.51% 11.32%+1.40 -47.6 15
1975-04-03 @ Marsa W 3-152.7 902 1166 11.32% 22.51% 66.17%-1.40 +47.6 3
1975-04-03 Floriana W 1-050.7 1242 1436 16.12% 22.99% 60.89%-1.03 +26.7 21
1975-04-03 @ St. Georges L 0-150.7 1436 1242 60.89% 22.99% 16.12%+1.03 -26.7 31
1975-04-17 Gzira United W 2-038.3 1127 1104 41.45% 23.56% 34.99%+0.12 +31.3 20
1975-04-17 @ Birkirkara L 0-238.3 1104 1127 34.99% 23.56% 41.45%-0.12 -31.3 14
1975-04-17 Sliema Wanderers L 0-136.6 1119 1286 18.42% 23.14% 58.45%-0.89 -9.8 15
1975-04-17 @ Marsa W 1-036.6 1286 1119 58.45% 23.14% 18.42%+0.89 +9.8 24
1975-04-17 Hibernians L 0-135.6 950 1143 16.19% 22.99% 60.81%-1.02 -8.8 3
1975-04-17 @ Mosta W 1-035.6 1143 950 60.81% 22.99% 16.19%+1.02 +8.8 15
1975-04-17 Valletta L 0-140.0 1177 1241 29.58% 23.50% 46.91%-0.34 -14.5 16
1975-04-17 @ Zebbug Rangers W 1-040.0 1241 1177 46.91% 23.50% 29.58%+0.34 +14.5 19
1975-05-01 Zebbug Rangers W 2-144.2 1269 1163 52.10% 23.39% 24.51%+0.56 +11.8 23
1975-05-01 @ St. Georges L 1-244.2 1163 1269 24.51% 23.39% 52.10%-0.56 -11.8 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1975-04-03 11.32% Mosta 902 3 @ Marsa 1166 1
2 1975-04-03 16.12% @ St. Georges 1242 1 Floriana 1436 0
3 1975-03-20 18.58% Gzira United 1098 2 @ Valletta 1263 1
4 1974-12-05 20.08% Gzira United 1073 1 @ Marsa 1221 0
5 1975-01-30 21.38% Birkirkara 1147 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1282 0
6 1975-01-23 22.35% Gzira United 1065 3 @ Hibernians 1191 0
7 1974-10-23 22.72% Marsa 1138 1 @ Valletta 1261 0
8 1975-03-27 23.04% Hibernians 1119 1 @ Valletta 1239 0
9 1974-09-25 23.31% @ St. Georges 1134 2 Sliema Wanderers 1252 1
10 1975-03-06 25.34% Valletta 1220 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1319 0
11 1974-12-05 27.85% Hibernians 1131 3 @ Zebbug Rangers 1209 0
12 1975-01-09 27.88% @ St. Georges 1190 2 Valletta 1267 0
13 1974-10-23 28.37% @ Zebbug Rangers 1151 5 Birkirkara 1224 1
14 1974-10-16 28.59% @ Marsa 1117 1 Hibernians 1188 0
15 1974-11-21 29.64% Birkirkara 1172 1 @ Valletta 1235 0
16 1975-01-09 31.71% @ Zebbug Rangers 1164 1 Marsa 1212 0
17 1974-09-25 32.06% Gzira United 1145 2 @ Mosta 1189 0
18 1974-12-19 33.00% @ St. Georges 1153 2 Hibernians 1190 0
19 1974-10-09 34.74% Zebbug Rangers 1127 3 @ Mosta 1152 0
20 1974-09-11 35.49% @ Floriana 1218 2 Valletta 1237 1
21 1975-01-30 36.13% @ Marsa 1172 1 Zebbug Rangers 1187 0
22 1974-10-09 37.44% Birkirkara 1177 2 @ Gzira United 1183 0
23 1974-09-25 38.20% Valletta 1219 2 @ Hibernians 1219 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-01-23 65.53 Gzira United 3 1065 22.35% @ Hibernians 0 1191 54.34% 23.32%
2 1974-10-23 63.91 @ Zebbug Rangers 5 1151 28.37% Birkirkara 1 1224 48.14% 23.48%
3 1974-12-05 59.27 Hibernians 3 1131 27.85% @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1209 48.68% 23.47%
4 1974-11-07 57.11 Marsa 4 1162 43.14% @ Gzira United 0 1127 33.31% 23.55%
5 1974-10-09 52.04 Zebbug Rangers 3 1127 34.74% @ Mosta 0 1152 41.70% 23.55%
6 1975-04-03 47.56 Mosta 3 902 11.32% @ Marsa 1 1166 66.17% 22.51%
7 1975-03-06 42.73 Valletta 2 1220 25.34% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1319 51.25% 23.41%
8 1975-01-09 40.78 @ St. Georges 2 1190 27.88% Valletta 0 1267 48.64% 23.47%
9 1975-02-06 39.24 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1258 47.45% Marsa 0 1190 29.06% 23.49%
10 1975-01-09 38.11 @ Hibernians 4 1153 56.52% Mosta 0 1006 20.25% 23.23%
11 1974-09-25 37.72 Gzira United 2 1145 32.06% @ Mosta 0 1189 44.41% 23.53%
12 1974-12-19 37.06 @ St. Georges 2 1153 33.00% Hibernians 0 1190 43.46% 23.54%
13 1974-10-23 34.97 St. Georges 4 1131 45.33% @ Mosta 1 1079 31.15% 23.52%
14 1975-03-06 34.95 Floriana 8 1377 64.78% @ Gzira United 1 1133 12.56% 22.66%
15 1974-10-09 33.99 Birkirkara 2 1177 37.44% @ Gzira United 0 1183 39.00% 23.56%
16 1974-12-05 31.42 Valletta 2 1214 41.23% @ Birkirkara 0 1193 35.21% 23.56%
17 1975-04-17 31.27 @ Birkirkara 2 1127 41.45% Gzira United 0 1104 34.99% 23.56%
18 1975-03-27 29.94 @ Floriana 5 1406 65.26% Birkirkara 0 1156 12.13% 22.61%
19 1975-03-20 28.59 Marsa 4 1153 62.60% @ Mosta 0 939 14.54% 22.86%
20 1974-10-16 28.36 @ Valletta 2 1232 45.60% Zebbug Rangers 0 1179 30.88% 23.52%
21 1974-11-07 28.07 @ Floriana 3 1285 39.79% Sliema Wanderers 1 1274 36.65% 23.56%
22 1975-04-03 26.74 @ St. Georges 1 1242 16.12% Floriana 0 1436 60.89% 22.99%
23 1975-04-03 25.39 Valletta 2 1215 49.66% @ Gzira United 0 1130 26.89% 23.45%
24 1974-11-21 24.95 Sliema Wanderers 2 1246 50.24% @ Hibernians 0 1156 26.32% 23.44%
25 1974-12-05 24.92 Gzira United 1 1073 20.08% @ Marsa 0 1221 56.70% 23.22%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-01-23 60.7 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1185 25.24% Sliema Wanderers 2 1284 51.35% 23.41%
2 1975-03-20 56.0 @ Floriana 1 1412 64.63% Zebbug Rangers 1 1170 12.69% 22.68%
3 1974-11-21 55.5 @ Marsa 1 1219 25.84% Floriana 1 1313 50.73% 23.43%
4 1974-11-07 55.1 @ Hibernians 1 1154 30.02% Zebbug Rangers 1 1215 46.47% 23.51%
5 1974-11-07 55.1 @ Valletta 1 1237 47.91% St. Georges 1 1166 28.60% 23.48%
6 1974-11-21 55.1 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1213 59.73% Mosta 1 1032 17.21% 23.06%
7 1975-03-06 55.1 @ Marsa 1 1151 27.46% St. Georges 1 1232 49.07% 23.46%
8 1974-09-11 55.0 @ St. Georges 1 1134 34.28% Birkirkara 1 1162 42.17% 23.55%
9 1975-03-06 55.0 @ Hibernians 1 1115 30.71% Birkirkara 1 1169 45.77% 23.52%
10 1975-03-20 54.1 Gzira United 2 1098 18.58% @ Valletta 1 1263 58.28% 23.15%
11 1974-10-09 53.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1229 42.02% Hibernians 3 1203 34.43% 23.55%
12 1974-09-25 52.7 @ St. Georges 2 1134 23.31% Sliema Wanderers 1 1252 53.34% 23.35%
13 1975-04-03 52.7 Mosta 3 902 11.32% @ Marsa 1 1166 66.17% 22.51%
14 1975-02-06 51.0 @ Valletta 0 1238 20.99% Floriana 0 1378 55.74% 23.26%
15 1975-04-03 50.7 @ St. Georges 1 1242 16.12% Floriana 0 1436 60.89% 22.99%
16 1975-03-27 50.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1289 52.92% Zebbug Rangers 0 1175 23.72% 23.37%
17 1974-10-09 50.0 @ Marsa 0 1113 22.72% Valletta 0 1236 53.95% 23.33%
18 1975-01-30 50.0 @ Gzira United 0 1131 25.20% St. Georges 0 1231 51.39% 23.41%
19 1975-02-20 50.0 @ Zebbug Rangers 0 1168 29.31% St. Georges 0 1234 47.19% 23.50%
20 1975-03-20 50.0 @ Hibernians 0 1116 23.68% St. Georges 0 1230 52.95% 23.36%
21 1974-09-11 49.9 @ Gzira United 0 1145 38.96% Zebbug Rangers 0 1140 37.47% 23.56%
22 1974-10-16 49.9 @ Birkirkara 3 1211 47.43% St. Georges 2 1143 29.07% 23.49%
23 1974-11-21 49.9 @ St. Georges 0 1167 51.12% Gzira United 0 1070 25.46% 23.42%
24 1975-02-06 49.9 @ Birkirkara 0 1171 46.29% Hibernians 0 1112 30.20% 23.51%
25 1975-02-20 49.9 @ Gzira United 0 1134 40.99% Hibernians 0 1114 35.46% 23.56%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-03-20 29.3 Marsa 4 1153 62.60% @ Mosta 0 939 14.54% 22.86%
2 1975-03-27 29.4 @ Floriana 5 1406 65.26% Birkirkara 0 1156 12.13% 22.61%
3 1974-12-19 29.9 Valletta 3 1246 62.86% @ Mosta 0 1028 14.30% 22.84%
4 1975-01-30 30.8 @ Valletta 2 1226 66.40% Mosta 0 959 11.11% 22.48%
5 1975-03-06 31.0 Floriana 8 1377 64.78% @ Gzira United 1 1133 12.56% 22.66%
6 1975-01-09 31.1 @ Hibernians 4 1153 56.52% Mosta 0 1006 20.25% 23.23%
7 1975-02-20 31.6 @ Floriana 1 1374 74.42% Mosta 0 941 4.70% 20.87%
8 1975-01-30 31.8 Floriana 2 1364 64.40% @ Hibernians 0 1126 12.90% 22.70%
9 1975-01-09 32.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1267 60.10% Gzira United 0 1082 16.86% 23.04%
10 1975-02-06 33.7 @ St. Georges 1 1228 67.24% Mosta 0 947 10.38% 22.38%
11 1974-10-16 34.0 Sliema Wanderers 2 1244 56.22% @ Mosta 0 1100 20.53% 23.24%
12 1975-01-23 34.2 @ Floriana 2 1345 57.14% Marsa 0 1191 19.66% 23.20%
13 1975-02-06 34.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1258 47.45% Marsa 0 1190 29.06% 23.49%
14 1974-11-07 35.2 Marsa 4 1162 43.14% @ Gzira United 0 1127 33.31% 23.55%
15 1975-04-17 35.6 Hibernians 1 1143 60.81% @ Mosta 0 950 16.19% 22.99%
16 1974-11-21 35.9 Sliema Wanderers 2 1246 50.24% @ Hibernians 0 1156 26.32% 23.44%
17 1975-04-03 36.0 Valletta 2 1215 49.66% @ Gzira United 0 1130 26.89% 23.45%
18 1975-01-09 36.1 Floriana 1 1336 60.48% @ Birkirkara 0 1147 16.50% 23.02%
19 1975-04-17 36.6 Sliema Wanderers 1 1286 58.45% @ Marsa 0 1119 18.42% 23.14%
20 1974-10-16 37.3 @ Valletta 2 1232 45.60% Zebbug Rangers 0 1179 30.88% 23.52%
21 1974-11-07 38.0 Birkirkara 1 1160 53.18% @ Mosta 0 1044 23.46% 23.36%
22 1974-10-09 38.3 Zebbug Rangers 3 1127 34.74% @ Mosta 0 1152 41.70% 23.55%
23 1975-04-17 38.3 @ Birkirkara 2 1127 41.45% Gzira United 0 1104 34.99% 23.56%
24 1974-10-23 38.5 @ Floriana 1 1273 52.08% Hibernians 0 1167 24.53% 23.39%
25 1975-03-20 38.5 Sliema Wanderers 1 1276 52.36% @ Birkirkara 0 1168 24.25% 23.38%