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1973-74 Maltese First Division Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Valletta

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valletta

6.26 points above expected

28 points · 21.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hamrun Spartans

4.49 points below expected

13 points · 17.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 18 12 4 2 28 23 8 +15 21.74 +6.26
2 Hibernians 18 10 4 4 24 21 9 +12 20.17 +3.83
3 Floriana 18 7 7 4 21 32 21 +11 22.28 -1.28
4 Sliema Wanderers 18 8 5 5 21 25 14 +11 22.35 -1.35
5 Zebbug Rangers 18 4 7 7 15 8 13 -5 14.95 +0.05
6 Marsa 18 5 5 8 15 19 25 -6 15.67 -0.67
7 Gzira United 18 5 5 8 15 16 23 -7 15.54 -0.54
8 Birkirkara 18 3 8 7 14 12 19 -7 15.97 -1.97
9 Qormi 18 5 4 9 14 10 23 -13 13.84 +0.16
10 Hamrun Spartans 18 2 9 7 13 11 22 -11 17.49 -4.49

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valletta 28 21.74 +6.26
2 Hibernians 24 20.17 +3.83
3 Qormi 14 13.84 +0.16
4 Zebbug Rangers 15 14.95 +0.05
5 Gzira United 15 15.54 -0.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 13 17.49 -4.49
2 Birkirkara 14 15.97 -1.97
3 Sliema Wanderers 21 22.35 -1.35
4 Floriana 21 22.28 -1.28
5 Marsa 15 15.67 -0.67

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valletta 1217 28 +17 8 5.8 +2.2
Hibernians 1151 24 -14 5 6.7 -1.7
Sliema Wanderers 1213 21 +2 7 7.3 -0.3
Floriana 1177 21 -10 5 5.9 -0.9
Gzira United 1033 15 +11 5 3.8 +1.2
Zebbug Rangers 1026 15 -4 4 4.0 +0.0
Marsa 1028 15 -23 1 4.0 -3.0
Birkirkara 1060 14 +39 8 4.1 +3.9
Qormi 982 14 +21 5 3.4 +1.6
Hamrun Spartans 1035 13 -14 4 4.8 -0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO GU HS HIB MAR QOR SW VAL ZR
Birkirkara —
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.64
1-1-0
2.02
0-0-2
2.86
1-0-1
3.14
0-2-0
1.95
0-0-2
1.72
0-2-0
2.89
Floriana
1-1-0
3.37
 —
1-1-0
3.63
1-1-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.63
1-0-1
4.10
0-1-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
3.78
Gzira United
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
1.74
 —
0-1-1
2.42
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
1.64
0-0-2
2.00
1-1-0
2.69
Hamrun Spartans
0-1-1
2.70
0-1-1
1.96
1-1-0
2.92
 —
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
3.04
0-2-0
3.21
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
3.17
Hibernians
0-1-1
3.34
1-0-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.10
 —
1-1-0
3.48
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
2.01
0-0-2
2.41
1-1-0
3.29
Marsa
2-0-0
2.47
0-1-1
1.74
0-0-2
2.77
1-1-0
2.30
0-1-1
1.88
 —
0-2-0
2.92
1-0-1
1.69
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
2.93
Qormi
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
1.32
1-0-1
2.43
0-2-0
2.13
0-0-2
1.94
0-2-0
2.42
 —
1-0-1
1.57
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.41
Sliema Wanderers
0-2-0
3.42
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.74
1-1-0
3.65
0-0-2
3.36
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-1
3.85
 —
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.77
Valletta
2-0-0
3.65
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.38
1-1-0
3.19
2-0-0
2.92
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
2.58
 —
0-2-0
3.69
Zebbug Rangers
0-2-0
2.45
1-1-0
1.61
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-2
1.61
0-2-0
1.70
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.51 +4.8
Allowed 0.60 -6.4
Differential 0.90 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.56%15.56%5.56%2.78%1.11%—40.56%
115.56%13.33%4.44%2.22%1.11%0.56%37.22%
25.56%4.44%2.22%—0.56%—12.78%
32.78%2.22%————5.00%
41.11%1.11%0.56%———2.78%
5+—0.56%———1.11%1.67%
Total40.56%37.22%12.78%5.00%2.78%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.98 0.98 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.59
CV 1.19 1.19 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%16.67%———55.56%
111.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.06 -0.39
SD 1.03 1.06 1.38
CV 1.54 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%27.78%—5.56%——38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
Total27.78%50.00%11.11%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.17 +0.61
SD 1.90 1.25 1.91
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—11.11%——38.89%
116.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.28 -0.39
SD 0.90 1.02 1.38
CV 1.01 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%—5.56%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%27.78%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
2———————
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%5.56%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 1.22 -0.61
SD 0.78 1.26 1.46
CV 1.27 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
122.22%5.56%11.11%———38.89%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total61.11%27.78%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.50 +0.67
SD 1.04 0.71 1.33
CV 0.89 1.41 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total38.89%22.22%22.22%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.39 -0.33
SD 1.43 1.58 1.64
CV 1.36 1.14 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%27.78%5.56%11.11%——55.56%
122.22%11.11%———5.56%38.89%
2———————
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%5.56%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 1.28 -0.72
SD 0.78 1.71 1.90
CV 1.41 1.34 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.78 +0.61
SD 1.29 0.73 1.65
CV 0.93 0.94 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
133.33%11.11%5.56%———50.00%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.44 +0.83
SD 0.89 0.70 1.25
CV 0.70 1.59 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
033.33%22.22%5.56%———61.11%
116.67%5.56%—11.11%——33.33%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%27.78%5.56%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.44 0.72 -0.28
SD 0.62 1.02 1.13
CV 1.39 1.41 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1217 28 21.74 +6.26 98.0% 10 17 20 22 24 26 31
Sliema Wanderers 1213 21 22.35 -1.35 30.0% 12 17 21 23 24 27 30
Floriana 1177 21 22.28 -1.28 35.0% 12 16 21 23 24 27 30
Hibernians 1151 24 20.17 +3.83 93.0% 10 15 18 20 22 25 29
Birkirkara 1067 14 15.97 -1.97 31.0% 8 11 14 16 18 21 23
Hamrun Spartans 1035 13 17.49 -4.49 13.0% 10 12 15 17 20 23 26
Gzira United 1033 15 15.54 -0.54 49.0% 10 11 13 16 18 20 23
Marsa 1028 15 15.67 -0.67 52.0% 6 10 14 15 18 21 23
Zebbug Rangers 1026 15 14.95 +0.05 54.0% 9 10 13 15 17 19 23
Qormi 976 14 13.84 +0.16 56.0% 7 9 11 14 16 18 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
Strong Edge
43.33%32.22%24.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
066.42600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Valletta, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.49 * Some Luck: 2.49 to 3.74 * Lucky: 3.74 to 4.98 * Wild Swing: 4.98 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.72 * Way Off: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.87 points
Some Luck
03.128
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.20
Off
01.704
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Valletta
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.00%
Hamrun Spartans
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 87.65
1.47
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
69%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%65%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Slight Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.82
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.43
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.90
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1730.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Birkirkara 1
Qormi 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valletta27.00%21.00%20.00%14.00%12.00%4.00%——1.00%1.00%
Hibernians8.00%16.00%22.00%24.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%4.00%—1.00%
Floriana33.00%26.00%20.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Sliema Wanderers29.00%28.00%20.00%10.00%9.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—
Zebbug Rangers—2.00%1.00%6.00%8.00%13.00%18.00%19.00%9.00%24.00%
Marsa—1.00%3.00%10.00%9.00%10.00%19.00%20.00%16.00%12.00%
Gzira United——3.00%5.00%13.00%19.00%15.00%14.00%21.00%10.00%
Birkirkara—1.00%6.00%7.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%17.00%19.00%12.00%
Qormi———2.00%8.00%11.00%15.00%9.00%21.00%34.00%
Hamrun Spartans3.00%5.00%5.00%14.00%15.00%17.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 99.00% 1.00%
Hibernians 99.00% 1.00%
Sliema Wanderers 99.00% 1.00%
Valletta 98.00% 2.00%
Hamrun Spartans 83.00% 17.00%
Marsa 72.00% 28.00%
Birkirkara 69.00% 31.00%
Gzira United 69.00% 31.00%
Zebbug Rangers 67.00% 33.00%
Qormi 45.00% 55.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1973-09-11 Sliema Wanderers D 1-152.0 1108 1208 34.11% 33.73% 32.17%-0.15 -0.1 1
1973-09-11 @ Birkirkara D 1-152.0 1208 1108 32.17% 33.73% 34.11%+0.15 +0.1 1
1973-09-11 Hibernians W 2-142.0 1165 1072 56.05% 31.31% 12.63%+0.73 +3.8 2
1973-09-11 @ Floriana L 1-242.0 1072 1165 12.63% 31.31% 56.05%-0.73 -3.8 0
1973-09-11 Valletta L 0-339.0 1054 1131 37.26% 33.81% 28.94%-0.05 -24.8 0
1973-09-11 @ Gzira United W 3-039.0 1131 1054 28.94% 33.81% 37.26%+0.05 +24.8 2
1973-09-11 Marsa D 0-046.6 1003 1040 42.41% 33.69% 23.89%+0.14 -1.0 1
1973-09-11 @ Qormi D 0-046.6 1040 1003 23.89% 33.69% 42.41%-0.14 +1.0 1
1973-09-11 Hamrun Spartans W 1-042.2 1028 1111 36.43% 33.79% 29.78%-0.08 +7.8 2
1973-09-11 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-142.2 1111 1028 29.78% 33.79% 36.43%+0.08 -7.8 0
1973-09-25 Qormi L 0-149.5 1108 1002 57.23% 30.91% 11.86%+0.79 -12.9 1
1973-09-25 @ Birkirkara W 1-049.5 1002 1108 11.86% 30.91% 57.23%-0.79 +12.9 3
1973-09-25 Hamrun Spartans W 3-031.7 1169 1103 53.52% 32.05% 14.43%+0.60 +12.4 4
1973-09-25 @ Floriana L 0-331.7 1103 1169 14.43% 32.05% 53.52%-0.60 -12.4 0
1973-09-25 Zebbug Rangers W 3-141.0 1029 1036 46.03% 33.40% 20.57%+0.27 +9.8 2
1973-09-25 @ Gzira United L 1-341.0 1036 1029 20.57% 33.40% 46.03%-0.27 -9.8 2
1973-09-25 Valletta L 0-239.3 1041 1156 32.08% 33.63% 34.30%-0.22 -15.4 1
1973-09-25 @ Marsa W 2-039.3 1156 1041 34.30% 33.63% 32.08%+0.22 +15.4 4
1973-09-25 Hibernians L 0-246.6 1208 1068 60.10% 29.79% 10.11%+0.95 -25.3 1
1973-09-25 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-046.6 1068 1208 10.11% 29.79% 60.10%-0.95 +25.3 2
1973-10-09 Floriana L 0-240.6 1095 1181 36.10% 33.79% 30.11%-0.09 -16.7 1
1973-10-09 @ Birkirkara W 2-040.6 1181 1095 30.11% 33.79% 36.10%+0.09 +16.7 6
1973-10-09 Marsa D 0-047.1 1091 1026 53.53% 32.05% 14.42%+0.60 -2.2 1
1973-10-09 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.1 1026 1091 14.42% 32.05% 53.53%-0.60 +2.2 2
1973-10-09 Sliema Wanderers W 2-148.2 1094 1183 35.59% 33.78% 30.64%-0.11 +7.5 4
1973-10-09 @ Hibernians L 1-248.2 1183 1094 30.64% 33.78% 35.59%+0.11 -7.5 1
1973-10-09 Gzira United W 1-039.9 1015 1039 44.01% 33.59% 22.40%+0.20 +6.4 5
1973-10-09 @ Qormi L 0-139.9 1039 1015 22.40% 33.59% 44.01%-0.20 -6.4 2
1973-10-09 Valletta D 0-046.8 1026 1171 28.07% 33.28% 38.66%-0.36 +0.5 3
1973-10-09 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-046.8 1171 1026 38.66% 33.28% 28.07%+0.36 -0.5 5
1973-10-16 Gzira United W 3-139.0 1089 1033 52.66% 32.27% 15.07%+0.56 +7.7 3
1973-10-16 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-339.0 1033 1089 15.07% 32.27% 52.66%-0.56 -7.6 2
1973-10-16 Birkirkara W 4-139.7 1028 1079 40.71% 33.77% 25.52%+0.07 +16.2 4
1973-10-16 @ Marsa L 1-439.7 1079 1028 25.52% 33.77% 40.71%-0.07 -16.1 1
1973-10-16 Sliema Wanderers L 0-335.8 1022 1176 26.97% 33.15% 39.88%-0.40 -19.7 5
1973-10-16 @ Qormi W 3-035.8 1176 1022 39.88% 33.15% 26.97%+0.40 +19.7 3
1973-10-16 Floriana D 1-152.1 1171 1198 43.64% 33.62% 22.75%+0.18 -1.0 6
1973-10-16 @ Valletta D 1-152.1 1198 1171 22.75% 33.62% 43.64%-0.18 +1.0 7
1973-10-16 Hibernians D 0-046.6 1026 1101 37.56% 33.81% 28.63%-0.04 -0.4 4
1973-10-16 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-046.6 1101 1026 28.63% 33.81% 37.56%+0.04 +0.4 5
1973-10-23 Birkirkara D 2-257.2 1025 1062 42.35% 33.70% 23.95%+0.13 -0.6 3
1973-10-23 @ Gzira United D 2-257.2 1062 1025 23.95% 33.70% 42.35%-0.13 +0.6 2
1973-10-23 Valletta L 0-144.6 1096 1170 37.77% 33.81% 28.42%-0.03 -9.1 3
1973-10-23 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-044.6 1170 1096 28.42% 33.81% 37.77%+0.03 +9.1 8
1973-10-23 Floriana W 1-042.8 1102 1199 34.55% 33.74% 31.71%-0.14 +8.1 7
1973-10-23 @ Hibernians L 0-142.8 1199 1102 31.71% 33.74% 34.55%+0.14 -8.1 7
1973-10-23 Qormi D 0-047.0 1044 1002 51.29% 32.58% 16.14%+0.50 -2.0 5
1973-10-23 @ Marsa D 0-047.0 1002 1044 16.14% 32.58% 51.29%-0.50 +2.0 6
1973-10-23 Sliema Wanderers L 0-140.5 1026 1195 25.18% 32.88% 41.93%-0.47 -6.8 4
1973-10-23 @ Zebbug Rangers W 1-040.5 1195 1026 41.93% 32.88% 25.18%+0.47 +6.8 5
1973-11-07 Sliema Wanderers D 2-257.5 1024 1202 24.22% 32.72% 43.06%-0.51 +0.6 4
1973-11-07 @ Gzira United D 2-257.5 1202 1024 43.06% 32.72% 24.22%+0.51 -0.6 6
1973-11-07 Zebbug Rangers W 1-036.9 1087 1019 53.81% 31.98% 14.22%+0.62 +4.5 5
1973-11-07 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-136.9 1019 1087 14.22% 31.98% 53.81%-0.62 -4.5 4
1973-11-07 Qormi W 2-032.4 1110 1004 57.24% 30.91% 11.85%+0.79 +7.1 9
1973-11-07 @ Hibernians L 0-232.4 1004 1110 11.85% 30.91% 57.24%-0.79 -7.1 6
1973-11-07 Floriana L 2-446.0 1042 1190 27.69% 33.23% 39.08%-0.38 -10.7 5
1973-11-07 @ Marsa W 4-246.0 1190 1042 39.08% 33.23% 27.69%+0.38 +10.7 9
1973-11-07 Birkirkara W 2-032.2 1179 1063 58.07% 30.61% 11.32%+0.84 +6.8 10
1973-11-07 @ Valletta L 0-232.2 1063 1179 11.32% 30.61% 58.07%-0.84 -6.8 2
1973-11-21 Gzira United L 0-148.0 1056 1025 50.16% 32.80% 17.04%+0.45 -11.5 2
1973-11-21 @ Birkirkara W 1-048.0 1025 1056 17.04% 32.80% 50.16%-0.45 +11.5 6
1973-11-21 Sliema Wanderers W 1-045.6 1031 1202 25.10% 32.87% 42.03%-0.48 +9.8 7
1973-11-21 @ Marsa L 0-145.6 1202 1031 42.03% 32.87% 25.10%+0.48 -9.8 6
1973-11-21 Hibernians L 0-142.5 997 1117 31.31% 33.57% 35.12%-0.25 -8.0 6
1973-11-21 @ Qormi W 1-042.5 1117 997 35.12% 33.57% 31.31%+0.25 +8.0 11
1973-11-21 Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.7 1186 1092 56.17% 31.27% 12.56%+0.74 -2.2 11
1973-11-21 @ Valletta D 1-152.7 1092 1186 12.56% 31.27% 56.17%-0.74 +2.2 6
1973-11-21 Floriana W 1-046.1 1015 1201 23.30% 32.54% 44.16%-0.55 +10.2 6
1973-11-21 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-146.1 1201 1015 44.16% 32.54% 23.30%+0.55 -10.2 9
1973-12-05 Valletta W 2-035.4 1191 1183 47.62% 33.21% 19.17%+0.34 +10.7 11
1973-12-05 @ Floriana L 0-235.4 1183 1191 19.17% 33.21% 47.62%-0.34 -10.7 11
1973-12-05 Gzira United W 2-142.1 1125 1036 55.68% 31.43% 12.89%+0.71 +3.9 13
1973-12-05 @ Hibernians L 1-242.1 1036 1125 12.89% 31.43% 55.68%-0.71 -3.9 6
1973-12-05 Hamrun Spartans W 1-041.0 1041 1094 40.44% 33.78% 25.78%+0.06 +7.0 9
1973-12-05 @ Marsa L 0-141.0 1094 1041 25.78% 33.78% 40.44%-0.06 -7.0 6
1973-12-05 Zebbug Rangers W 1-040.3 989 1025 42.49% 33.69% 23.82%+0.14 +6.7 8
1973-12-05 @ Qormi L 0-140.3 1025 989 23.82% 33.69% 42.49%-0.14 -6.7 6
1973-12-05 Birkirkara D 0-047.9 1192 1045 60.66% 29.54% 9.80%+0.98 -3.0 7
1973-12-05 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.9 1045 1192 9.80% 29.54% 60.66%-0.98 +3.0 3
1973-12-19 Hibernians D 0-046.6 1048 1129 36.73% 33.80% 29.47%-0.07 -0.4 4
1973-12-19 @ Birkirkara D 0-046.6 1129 1048 29.47% 33.80% 36.73%+0.07 +0.3 14
1973-12-19 Marsa D 5-563.0 1202 1048 61.17% 29.31% 9.52%+1.01 -1.3 12
1973-12-19 @ Floriana D 5-563.0 1048 1202 9.52% 29.31% 61.17%-1.01 +1.3 10
1973-12-19 Hamrun Spartans D 1-151.9 995 1087 35.26% 33.77% 30.97%-0.12 -0.2 9
1973-12-19 @ Qormi D 1-151.9 1087 995 30.97% 33.77% 35.26%+0.12 +0.2 7
1973-12-19 Sliema Wanderers W 1-039.7 1173 1189 44.93% 33.51% 21.56%+0.23 +6.2 13
1973-12-19 @ Valletta L 0-139.7 1189 1173 21.56% 33.51% 44.93%-0.23 -6.2 7
1973-12-19 Gzira United D 0-046.7 1018 1033 45.13% 33.49% 21.38%+0.24 -1.2 7
1973-12-19 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-046.7 1033 1018 21.38% 33.49% 45.13%-0.24 +1.3 7
1974-01-09 Birkirkara D 1-153.3 1200 1047 61.14% 29.33% 9.53%+1.01 -2.7 13
1974-01-09 @ Floriana D 1-153.3 1047 1200 9.53% 29.33% 61.14%-1.01 +2.7 5
1974-01-09 Hibernians L 0-440.2 1087 1129 41.80% 33.72% 24.48%+0.11 -35.3 7
1974-01-09 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-040.2 1129 1087 24.48% 33.72% 41.80%-0.11 +35.3 16
1974-01-09 Zebbug Rangers W 1-038.0 1050 1017 50.30% 32.77% 16.93%+0.45 +5.2 12
1974-01-09 @ Marsa L 0-138.0 1017 1050 16.93% 32.77% 50.30%-0.45 -5.1 7
1974-01-09 Valletta L 0-334.6 995 1179 23.58% 32.60% 43.82%-0.54 -17.9 9
1974-01-09 @ Qormi W 3-034.6 1179 995 43.82% 32.60% 23.58%+0.54 +17.8 15
1974-01-09 Gzira United W 3-029.5 1183 1034 60.80% 29.48% 9.72%+0.99 +8.5 9
1974-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-329.5 1034 1183 9.72% 29.48% 60.80%-0.99 -8.5 7
1974-01-23 Zebbug Rangers D 0-047.0 1050 1012 50.87% 32.66% 16.46%+0.48 -1.9 6
1974-01-23 @ Birkirkara D 0-047.0 1012 1050 16.46% 32.66% 50.87%-0.48 +1.9 8
1974-01-23 Qormi W 7-130.0 1198 977 66.24% 26.68% 7.08%+1.32 +9.5 15
1974-01-23 @ Floriana L 1-730.0 977 1198 7.08% 26.68% 66.24%-1.32 -9.5 9
1974-01-23 Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.0 1025 1052 43.69% 33.61% 22.70%+0.18 -1.0 8
1974-01-23 @ Gzira United D 1-152.0 1052 1025 22.70% 33.61% 43.69%-0.18 +1.0 8
1974-01-23 Marsa W 4-029.6 1191 1055 59.79% 29.92% 10.29%+0.93 +11.8 11
1974-01-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-429.6 1055 1191 10.29% 29.92% 59.79%-0.93 -11.8 12
1974-01-23 Hibernians W 2-143.8 1197 1164 50.26% 32.78% 16.96%+0.45 +4.9 17
1974-01-23 @ Valletta L 1-243.8 1164 1197 16.96% 32.78% 50.26%-0.45 -4.9 16
1974-01-30 Marsa L 0-243.7 1048 1043 47.35% 33.24% 19.40%+0.33 -20.6 6
1974-01-30 @ Birkirkara W 2-043.7 1043 1048 19.40% 33.24% 47.35%-0.33 +20.6 14
1974-01-30 Sliema Wanderers D 1-152.3 1207 1203 47.25% 33.26% 19.49%+0.32 -1.3 16
1974-01-30 @ Floriana D 1-152.3 1203 1207 19.49% 33.26% 47.25%-0.32 +1.3 12
1974-01-30 Qormi W 1-037.3 1024 968 52.70% 32.26% 15.04%+0.56 +4.7 10
1974-01-30 @ Gzira United L 0-137.3 968 1024 15.04% 32.26% 52.70%-0.56 -4.7 9
1974-01-30 Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.5 1160 1053 57.30% 30.89% 11.81%+0.79 -2.6 17
1974-01-30 @ Hibernians D 0-047.5 1053 1160 11.81% 30.89% 57.30%-0.79 +2.6 9
1974-01-30 Zebbug Rangers D 0-048.4 1202 1014 63.84% 28.00% 8.16%+1.17 -3.3 18
1974-01-30 @ Valletta D 0-048.4 1014 1202 8.16% 28.00% 63.84%-1.17 +3.3 9
1974-02-06 Hibernians L 0-142.2 1029 1157 30.29% 33.50% 36.21%-0.28 -7.8 10
1974-02-06 @ Gzira United W 1-042.2 1157 1029 36.21% 33.50% 30.29%+0.28 +7.8 19
1974-02-06 Sliema Wanderers L 1-247.1 1055 1204 27.63% 33.23% 39.15%-0.38 -6.9 9
1974-02-06 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-147.1 1204 1055 39.15% 33.23% 27.63%+0.38 +6.9 14
1974-02-06 Qormi W 1-032.9 1198 963 67.30% 26.06% 6.65%+1.38 +2.0 20
1974-02-06 @ Valletta L 0-132.9 963 1198 6.65% 26.06% 67.30%-1.38 -2.0 9
1974-02-06 Marsa W 2-037.2 1017 1064 41.22% 33.75% 25.03%+0.09 +13.0 11
1974-02-06 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-237.2 1064 1017 25.03% 33.75% 41.22%-0.09 -13.0 14
1974-02-20 Valletta L 0-140.4 1028 1200 24.80% 32.82% 42.37%-0.49 -6.8 6
1974-02-20 @ Birkirkara W 1-040.4 1200 1028 42.37% 32.82% 24.80%+0.49 +6.8 22
1974-02-20 Zebbug Rangers W 2-031.7 1165 1030 59.66% 29.98% 10.37%+0.92 +6.3 21
1974-02-20 @ Hibernians L 0-231.7 1030 1165 10.37% 29.98% 59.66%-0.92 -6.3 11
1974-02-20 Gzira United L 1-253.6 1051 1021 49.96% 32.84% 17.20%+0.44 -10.8 14
1974-02-20 @ Marsa W 2-153.6 1021 1051 17.20% 32.84% 49.96%-0.44 +10.8 12
1974-02-20 Floriana W 3-149.4 961 1206 17.83% 31.02% 51.15%-0.82 +18.8 11
1974-02-20 @ Qormi L 1-349.4 1206 961 51.15% 31.02% 17.83%+0.82 -18.8 16
1974-02-20 Hamrun Spartans D 0-048.1 1211 1049 61.90% 28.97% 9.13%+1.05 -3.1 15
1974-02-20 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-048.1 1049 1211 9.13% 28.97% 61.90%-1.05 +3.1 10
1974-03-06 Floriana D 1-152.1 1032 1187 26.86% 33.13% 40.01%-0.41 +0.6 13
1974-03-06 @ Gzira United D 1-152.1 1187 1032 40.01% 33.13% 26.86%+0.41 -0.6 17
1974-03-06 Qormi D 1-152.5 1052 980 54.16% 31.88% 13.96%+0.63 -2.0 11
1974-03-06 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.5 980 1052 13.96% 31.88% 54.16%-0.63 +2.0 12
1974-03-06 Birkirkara L 0-150.2 1171 1021 60.92% 29.43% 9.66%+0.99 -13.6 21
1974-03-06 @ Hibernians W 1-050.2 1021 1171 9.66% 29.43% 60.92%-0.99 +13.6 8
1974-03-06 Zebbug Rangers W 3-135.8 1208 1024 63.56% 28.15% 8.29%+1.15 +4.3 17
1974-03-06 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-335.8 1024 1208 8.29% 28.15% 63.56%-1.15 -4.3 11
1974-03-06 Marsa W 2-140.1 1207 1040 62.26% 28.80% 8.94%+1.07 +2.7 24
1974-03-06 @ Valletta L 1-240.1 1040 1207 8.94% 28.80% 62.26%-1.07 -2.7 14
1974-03-20 Floriana D 0-046.8 1050 1186 29.13% 33.39% 37.48%-0.32 +0.4 12
1974-03-20 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-046.8 1186 1050 37.48% 33.39% 29.13%+0.32 -0.4 18
1974-03-20 Marsa W 1-035.6 1157 1037 58.46% 30.46% 11.08%+0.86 +3.5 23
1974-03-20 @ Hibernians L 0-135.6 1037 1157 11.08% 30.46% 58.46%-0.86 -3.5 14
1974-03-20 Birkirkara L 0-145.3 982 1034 40.45% 33.77% 25.78%+0.06 -9.6 12
1974-03-20 @ Qormi W 1-045.3 1034 982 25.78% 33.77% 40.45%-0.06 +9.6 10
1974-03-20 Gzira United W 1-034.2 1210 1033 63.03% 28.42% 8.55%+1.12 +2.7 26
1974-03-20 @ Valletta L 0-134.2 1033 1210 8.55% 28.42% 63.03%-1.12 -2.7 13
1974-03-27 Birkirkara D 1-152.1 1050 1044 47.44% 33.23% 19.33%+0.33 -1.3 13
1974-03-27 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.1 1044 1050 19.33% 33.23% 47.44%-0.33 +1.4 11
1974-03-27 Hibernians D 1-152.0 1034 1161 30.36% 33.50% 36.14%-0.28 +0.2 15
1974-03-27 @ Marsa D 1-152.0 1161 1034 36.14% 33.50% 30.36%+0.28 -0.3 24
1974-03-27 Floriana W 2-034.8 1212 1186 49.63% 32.90% 17.48%+0.43 +10.0 19
1974-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-234.8 1186 1212 17.48% 32.90% 49.63%-0.43 -10.0 18
1974-03-27 Qormi W 1-037.5 1020 972 51.79% 32.47% 15.74%+0.52 +4.9 13
1974-03-27 @ Zebbug Rangers L 0-137.5 972 1020 15.74% 32.47% 51.79%-0.52 -4.9 12
1974-04-03 Hamrun Spartans W 4-138.0 1045 1049 46.40% 33.36% 20.24%+0.29 +13.7 13
1974-04-03 @ Birkirkara L 1-438.0 1049 1045 20.24% 33.36% 46.40%-0.29 -13.7 13
1974-04-03 Zebbug Rangers D 1-153.3 1176 1024 61.04% 29.37% 9.59%+1.00 -2.7 19
1974-04-03 @ Floriana D 1-153.3 1024 1176 9.59% 29.37% 61.04%-1.00 +2.7 14
1974-04-03 Marsa W 1-039.2 1030 1034 46.32% 33.37% 20.31%+0.29 +5.9 15
1974-04-03 @ Gzira United L 0-139.2 1034 1030 20.31% 33.37% 46.32%-0.29 -5.9 15
1974-04-03 Valletta W 2-144.7 1222 1213 47.86% 33.17% 18.97%+0.35 +5.3 21
1974-04-03 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.7 1213 1222 18.97% 33.17% 47.86%-0.35 -5.3 26
1974-04-17 Gzira United W 1-035.1 1173 1036 59.90% 29.88% 10.23%+0.94 +3.3 21
1974-04-17 @ Floriana L 0-135.1 1036 1173 10.23% 29.88% 59.90%-0.94 -3.3 15
1974-04-17 Valletta L 0-145.7 1161 1207 41.24% 33.75% 25.02%+0.09 -9.8 24
1974-04-17 @ Hibernians W 1-045.7 1207 1161 25.02% 33.75% 41.24%-0.09 +9.8 28
1974-04-17 Qormi L 0-151.3 1228 967 69.05% 24.98% 5.97%+1.50 -14.9 21
1974-04-17 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-051.3 967 1228 5.97% 24.98% 69.05%-1.50 +14.9 14
1974-04-17 Birkirkara D 0-046.7 1027 1059 43.03% 33.66% 23.31%+0.16 -1.0 15
1974-04-17 @ Zebbug Rangers D 0-046.7 1059 1027 23.31% 33.66% 43.03%-0.16 +1.0 14

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1974-04-24 Qormi W 1-040.0 1060 982 43.61% 33.22% 23.17%+0.36 +6.5 1-0
1974-04-24 @ Birkirkara L 0-140.0 982 1060 23.17% 33.22% 43.61%-0.36 -6.5 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1974-04-17 5.97% Qormi 967 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1228 0
2 1974-03-06 9.66% Birkirkara 1021 1 @ Hibernians 1171 0
3 1973-09-25 10.11% Hibernians 1068 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1208 0
4 1973-09-25 11.86% Qormi 1002 1 @ Birkirkara 1108 0
5 1973-11-21 17.04% Gzira United 1025 1 @ Birkirkara 1056 0
6 1974-02-20 17.20% Gzira United 1021 2 @ Marsa 1051 1
7 1974-02-20 17.83% @ Qormi 961 3 Floriana 1206 1
8 1974-01-30 19.40% Marsa 1043 2 @ Birkirkara 1048 0
9 1973-11-21 23.30% @ Zebbug Rangers 1015 1 Floriana 1201 0
10 1974-01-09 24.48% Hibernians 1129 4 @ Hamrun Spartans 1087 0
11 1974-04-17 25.02% Valletta 1207 1 @ Hibernians 1161 0
12 1973-11-21 25.10% @ Marsa 1031 1 Sliema Wanderers 1202 0
13 1974-03-20 25.78% Birkirkara 1034 1 @ Qormi 982 0
14 1973-10-23 28.42% Valletta 1170 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1096 0
15 1973-09-11 28.94% Valletta 1131 3 @ Gzira United 1054 0
16 1973-10-09 30.11% Floriana 1181 2 @ Birkirkara 1095 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1974-01-09 35.33 Hibernians 4 1129 24.48% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1087 41.80% 33.72%
2 1973-09-25 25.32 Hibernians 2 1068 10.11% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1208 60.10% 29.79%
3 1973-09-11 24.78 Valletta 3 1131 28.94% @ Gzira United 0 1054 37.26% 33.81%
4 1974-01-30 20.62 Marsa 2 1043 19.40% @ Birkirkara 0 1048 47.35% 33.24%
5 1973-10-16 19.74 Sliema Wanderers 3 1176 39.88% @ Qormi 0 1022 26.97% 33.15%
6 1974-02-20 18.75 @ Qormi 3 961 17.83% Floriana 1 1206 51.15% 31.02%
7 1974-01-09 17.85 Valletta 3 1179 43.82% @ Qormi 0 995 23.58% 32.60%
8 1973-10-09 16.68 Floriana 2 1181 30.11% @ Birkirkara 0 1095 36.10% 33.79%
9 1973-10-16 16.16 @ Marsa 4 1028 40.71% Birkirkara 1 1079 25.52% 33.77%
10 1973-09-25 15.37 Valletta 2 1156 34.30% @ Marsa 0 1041 32.08% 33.63%
11 1974-04-17 14.87 Qormi 1 967 5.97% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1228 69.05% 24.98%
12 1974-04-03 13.68 @ Birkirkara 4 1045 46.40% Hamrun Spartans 1 1049 20.24% 33.36%
13 1974-03-06 13.58 Birkirkara 1 1021 9.66% @ Hibernians 0 1171 60.92% 29.43%
14 1974-02-06 13.01 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1017 41.22% Marsa 0 1064 25.03% 33.75%
15 1973-09-25 12.88 Qormi 1 1002 11.86% @ Birkirkara 0 1108 57.23% 30.91%
16 1973-09-25 12.36 @ Floriana 3 1169 53.52% Hamrun Spartans 0 1103 14.43% 32.05%
17 1974-01-23 11.81 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1191 59.79% Marsa 0 1055 10.29% 29.92%
18 1973-11-21 11.49 Gzira United 1 1025 17.04% @ Birkirkara 0 1056 50.16% 32.80%
19 1974-02-20 10.80 Gzira United 2 1021 17.20% @ Marsa 1 1051 49.96% 32.84%
20 1973-11-07 10.73 Floriana 4 1190 39.08% @ Marsa 2 1042 27.69% 33.23%
21 1973-12-05 10.72 @ Floriana 2 1191 47.62% Valletta 0 1183 19.17% 33.21%
22 1973-11-21 10.22 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1015 23.30% Floriana 0 1201 44.16% 32.54%
23 1974-03-27 9.98 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1212 49.63% Floriana 0 1186 17.48% 32.90%
24 1973-11-21 9.84 @ Marsa 1 1031 25.10% Sliema Wanderers 0 1202 42.03% 32.87%
25 1973-09-25 9.79 @ Gzira United 3 1029 46.03% Zebbug Rangers 1 1036 20.57% 33.40%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-12-19 63.0 @ Floriana 5 1202 61.17% Marsa 5 1048 9.52% 29.31%
2 1973-11-07 57.5 @ Gzira United 2 1024 24.22% Sliema Wanderers 2 1202 43.06% 32.72%
3 1973-10-23 57.2 @ Gzira United 2 1025 42.35% Birkirkara 2 1062 23.95% 33.70%
4 1974-02-20 53.6 Gzira United 2 1021 17.20% @ Marsa 1 1051 49.96% 32.84%
5 1974-01-09 53.3 @ Floriana 1 1200 61.14% Birkirkara 1 1047 9.53% 29.33%
6 1974-04-03 53.3 @ Floriana 1 1176 61.04% Zebbug Rangers 1 1024 9.59% 29.37%
7 1973-11-21 52.7 @ Valletta 1 1186 56.17% Hamrun Spartans 1 1092 12.56% 31.27%
8 1974-03-06 52.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1052 54.16% Qormi 1 980 13.96% 31.88%
9 1974-01-30 52.3 @ Floriana 1 1207 47.25% Sliema Wanderers 1 1203 19.49% 33.26%
10 1973-10-16 52.1 @ Valletta 1 1171 43.64% Floriana 1 1198 22.75% 33.62%
11 1974-03-06 52.1 @ Gzira United 1 1032 26.86% Floriana 1 1187 40.01% 33.13%
12 1974-03-27 52.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1050 47.44% Birkirkara 1 1044 19.33% 33.23%
13 1973-09-11 52.0 @ Birkirkara 1 1108 34.11% Sliema Wanderers 1 1208 32.17% 33.73%
14 1974-01-23 52.0 @ Gzira United 1 1025 43.69% Hamrun Spartans 1 1052 22.70% 33.61%
15 1974-03-27 52.0 @ Marsa 1 1034 30.36% Hibernians 1 1161 36.14% 33.50%
16 1973-12-19 51.9 @ Qormi 1 995 35.26% Hamrun Spartans 1 1087 30.97% 33.77%
17 1974-04-17 51.3 Qormi 1 967 5.97% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1228 69.05% 24.98%
18 1974-03-06 50.2 Birkirkara 1 1021 9.66% @ Hibernians 0 1171 60.92% 29.43%
19 1973-09-25 49.5 Qormi 1 1002 11.86% @ Birkirkara 0 1108 57.23% 30.91%
20 1974-02-20 49.4 @ Qormi 3 961 17.83% Floriana 1 1206 51.15% 31.02%
21 1974-01-30 48.4 @ Valletta 0 1202 63.84% Zebbug Rangers 0 1014 8.16% 28.00%
22 1973-10-09 48.2 @ Hibernians 2 1094 35.59% Sliema Wanderers 1 1183 30.64% 33.78%
23 1974-02-20 48.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1211 61.90% Hamrun Spartans 0 1049 9.13% 28.97%
24 1973-11-21 48.0 Gzira United 1 1025 17.04% @ Birkirkara 0 1056 50.16% 32.80%
25 1973-12-05 47.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1192 60.66% Birkirkara 0 1045 9.80% 29.54%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1974-01-09 29.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1183 60.80% Gzira United 0 1034 9.72% 29.48%
2 1974-01-23 29.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1191 59.79% Marsa 0 1055 10.29% 29.92%
3 1974-01-23 30.0 @ Floriana 7 1198 66.24% Qormi 1 977 7.08% 26.68%
4 1973-09-25 31.7 @ Floriana 3 1169 53.52% Hamrun Spartans 0 1103 14.43% 32.05%
5 1974-02-20 31.7 @ Hibernians 2 1165 59.66% Zebbug Rangers 0 1030 10.37% 29.98%
6 1973-11-07 32.2 @ Valletta 2 1179 58.07% Birkirkara 0 1063 11.32% 30.61%
7 1973-11-07 32.4 @ Hibernians 2 1110 57.24% Qormi 0 1004 11.85% 30.91%
8 1974-02-06 32.9 @ Valletta 1 1198 67.30% Qormi 0 963 6.65% 26.06%
9 1974-03-20 34.2 @ Valletta 1 1210 63.03% Gzira United 0 1033 8.55% 28.42%
10 1974-01-09 34.6 Valletta 3 1179 43.82% @ Qormi 0 995 23.58% 32.60%
11 1974-03-27 34.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1212 49.63% Floriana 0 1186 17.48% 32.90%
12 1974-04-17 35.1 @ Floriana 1 1173 59.90% Gzira United 0 1036 10.23% 29.88%
13 1973-12-05 35.4 @ Floriana 2 1191 47.62% Valletta 0 1183 19.17% 33.21%
14 1974-03-20 35.6 @ Hibernians 1 1157 58.46% Marsa 0 1037 11.08% 30.46%
15 1973-10-16 35.8 Sliema Wanderers 3 1176 39.88% @ Qormi 0 1022 26.97% 33.15%
16 1974-03-06 35.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1208 63.56% Zebbug Rangers 1 1024 8.29% 28.15%
17 1973-11-07 36.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1087 53.81% Zebbug Rangers 0 1019 14.22% 31.98%
18 1974-02-06 37.2 @ Zebbug Rangers 2 1017 41.22% Marsa 0 1064 25.03% 33.75%
19 1974-01-30 37.3 @ Gzira United 1 1024 52.70% Qormi 0 968 15.04% 32.26%
20 1974-03-27 37.5 @ Zebbug Rangers 1 1020 51.79% Qormi 0 972 15.74% 32.47%
21 1974-01-09 38.0 @ Marsa 1 1050 50.30% Zebbug Rangers 0 1017 16.93% 32.77%
22 1974-04-03 38.0 @ Birkirkara 4 1045 46.40% Hamrun Spartans 1 1049 20.24% 33.36%
23 1973-09-11 39.0 Valletta 3 1131 28.94% @ Gzira United 0 1054 37.26% 33.81%
24 1973-10-16 39.0 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1089 52.66% Gzira United 1 1033 15.07% 32.27%
25 1974-04-03 39.2 @ Gzira United 1 1030 46.32% Marsa 0 1034 20.31% 33.37%