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1972-73 Maltese First Division Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Floriana

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hamrun Spartans

4.84 points above expected

25 points · 20.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Patrick

4.10 points below expected

3 points · 7.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 18 12 2 4 26 31 10 +21 23.21 +2.79
2 Sliema Wanderers 18 10 5 3 25 34 14 +20 25.86 -0.86
3 Hamrun Spartans 18 10 5 3 25 25 10 +15 20.16 +4.84
4 Valletta 18 9 6 3 24 29 14 +15 21.33 +2.67
5 Birkirkara 18 8 8 2 24 17 9 +8 19.70 +4.30
6 Hibernians 18 5 5 8 15 15 15 0 18.84 -3.84
7 Gzira United 18 5 5 8 15 13 20 -7 16.83 -1.83
8 Marsa 18 4 6 8 14 15 22 -7 16.72 -2.72
9 St. Georges 18 2 5 11 9 7 25 -18 10.25 -1.25
10 St. Patrick 18 1 1 16 3 11 58 -47 7.10 -4.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 25 20.16 +4.84
2 Birkirkara 24 19.70 +4.30
3 Floriana 26 23.21 +2.79
4 Valletta 24 21.33 +2.67
5 Sliema Wanderers 25 25.86 -0.86

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Patrick 3 7.10 -4.10
2 Hibernians 15 18.84 -3.84
3 Marsa 14 16.72 -2.72
4 Gzira United 15 16.83 -1.83
5 St. Georges 9 10.25 -1.25

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Floriana 1403 26 +0 6 6.2 -0.2
Hamrun Spartans 1325 25 +41 7 5.4 +1.6
Sliema Wanderers 1476 25 +18 6 7.0 -1.0
Birkirkara 1290 24 +41 9 6.6 +2.4
Valletta 1337 24 -25 6 6.1 -0.1
Gzira United 1167 15 -46 4 5.6 -1.6
Hibernians 1196 15 -15 4 5.8 -1.8
Marsa 1133 14 -15 3 3.0 +0.0
St. Georges 1007 9 +37 5 2.4 +2.6
St. Patrick 801 3 -27 0 1.4 -1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO GU HS HIB MAR SW SG SP VAL
Birkirkara —
1-0-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
2.30
1-1-0
2.85
0-2-0
3.25
0-1-1
1.36
2-0-0
4.35
2-0-0
4.84
1-1-0
2.27
Floriana
1-0-1
3.40
 —
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.49
2-0-0
3.61
1-0-1
2.14
2-0-0
4.48
2-0-0
5.04
0-1-1
3.18
Gzira United
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
1.46
 —
0-1-1
2.12
0-0-2
2.23
2-0-0
3.17
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-1
4.22
2-0-0
4.26
0-2-0
1.83
Hamrun Spartans
0-2-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.14
1-1-0
3.33
 —
2-0-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.10
0-1-1
1.56
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
4.63
1-0-1
3.20
Hibernians
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.29
 —
1-1-0
3.42
0-0-2
1.49
0-2-0
4.26
2-0-0
4.58
0-1-1
2.21
Marsa
0-2-0
2.19
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
2.02
 —
1-1-0
0.86
1-1-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.31
0-1-1
2.18
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.97
0-1-1
4.65
 —
1-1-0
4.94
1-1-0
4.99
1-0-1
3.53
St. Georges
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.01
1-1-0
1.25
0-0-2
1.40
0-2-0
1.21
0-1-1
1.46
0-1-1
0.61
 —
1-0-1
3.54
0-0-2
0.97
St. Patrick
0-0-2
0.69
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
1.21
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
0.92
0-0-2
1.17
0-1-1
0.57
1-0-1
1.90
 —
0-0-2
0.76
Valletta
0-1-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.26
0-2-0
3.62
1-0-1
2.25
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
1.92
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
4.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +7.2
Allowed 0.75 -4.8
Differential 0.94 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.78%11.67%7.22%4.44%1.67%0.56%43.33%
111.67%6.67%5.00%1.11%2.22%1.67%28.33%
27.22%5.00%2.22%—0.56%0.56%15.56%
34.44%1.11%————5.56%
41.67%2.22%0.56%———4.44%
5+0.56%1.67%0.56%———2.78%
Total43.33%28.33%15.56%5.56%4.44%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.09 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.04
CV 1.24 1.24 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
038.89%5.56%————44.44%
116.67%5.56%——5.56%—27.78%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total66.67%27.78%——5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 0.50 +0.44
SD 1.06 0.99 1.25
CV 1.12 1.97 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%————16.67%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
311.11%—————11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.56 +1.17
SD 1.23 0.70 1.65
CV 0.71 1.27 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
111.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.11 -0.39
SD 0.89 1.13 1.65
CV 1.24 1.02 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%—5.56%——33.33%
122.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3———————
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total61.11%27.78%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.56 +0.83
SD 1.54 0.86 1.76
CV 1.11 1.54 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%——61.11%
1——11.11%———11.11%
222.22%—————22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total50.00%22.22%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 0.83 +0.00
SD 1.34 0.99 1.78
CV 1.61 1.18 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%16.67%5.56%11.11%——61.11%
15.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total38.89%22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.22 -0.39
SD 1.38 1.26 1.75
CV 1.66 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
111.11%5.56%16.67%———33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.78 +1.11
SD 1.49 0.81 1.64
CV 0.79 1.04 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%27.78%16.67%—11.11%—77.78%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
2———————
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 1.39 -1.00
SD 0.98 1.29 1.53
CV 2.52 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%50.00%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
2————5.56%5.56%11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%5.56%27.78%22.22%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 3.22 -2.61
SD 0.70 1.83 1.88
CV 1.14 0.57 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
122.22%16.67%———5.56%44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%38.89%5.56%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.78 +0.83
SD 1.91 1.22 2.38
CV 1.19 1.56 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sliema Wanderers 1506 25 25.86 -0.86 44.0% 16 21 24 26 28 32 35
Floriana 1403 26 23.21 +2.79 88.0% 17 18 21 23 25 28 31
Valletta 1337 24 21.33 +2.67 83.0% 11 15 19 21 24 27 29
Hamrun Spartans 1294 25 20.16 +4.84 94.0% 13 14 18 20 22 26 30
Birkirkara 1290 24 19.70 +4.30 92.0% 10 13 18 20 22 25 27
Hibernians 1196 15 18.84 -3.84 13.0% 11 14 17 19 21 23 27
Gzira United 1167 15 16.83 -1.83 39.0% 8 11 14 17 19 23 26
Marsa 1133 14 16.72 -2.72 23.0% 8 10 15 17 19 22 23
St. Georges 1007 9 10.25 -1.25 43.0% 4 5 8 10 12 15 19
St. Patrick 801 3 7.10 -4.10 3.0% 3 4 5 7 8 11 14

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.22%
Slight Edge
35.56%26.67%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -7.72 Elo pts.
185 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.26 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Floriana, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.61 * Some Luck: 2.61 to 3.91 * Lucky: 3.91 to 5.22 * Wild Swing: 5.22 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.99 * Close: 0.99 to 1.49 * Off: 1.49 to 1.98 * Way Off: 1.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
03.268
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
01.242.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Hamrun Spartans
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
St. Patrick
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 199.93
2.20
Strong Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
75%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Notable Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Some Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.72
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.25
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.115
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Sliema Wanderers 3
Hamrun Spartans 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Floriana19.00%31.00%22.00%9.00%14.00%4.00%—1.00%——
Sliema Wanderers58.00%23.00%7.00%10.00%——2.00%———
Hamrun Spartans4.00%14.00%15.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%—
Valletta12.00%14.00%25.00%17.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%—
Birkirkara4.00%8.00%13.00%17.00%25.00%12.00%13.00%5.00%3.00%—
Hibernians2.00%6.00%6.00%15.00%17.00%25.00%15.00%13.00%1.00%—
Gzira United—4.00%7.00%7.00%10.00%13.00%19.00%29.00%10.00%1.00%
Marsa1.00%—5.00%9.00%9.00%18.00%25.00%25.00%7.00%1.00%
St. Georges—————2.00%4.00%17.00%60.00%17.00%
St. Patrick———————2.00%17.00%81.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 99.00% 1.00%
Hibernians 99.00% 1.00%
Valletta 99.00% 1.00%
Birkirkara 97.00% 3.00%
Marsa 92.00% 8.00%
Gzira United 89.00% 11.00%
St. Georges 23.00% 77.00%
St. Patrick 2.00% 98.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1972-09-11 Gzira United D 0-048.9 1208 1276 27.02% 27.87% 45.11%-0.41 +2.1 1
1972-09-11 @ Birkirkara D 0-048.9 1276 1208 45.11% 27.87% 27.02%+0.41 -2.1 1
1972-09-11 Sliema Wanderers W 2-154.7 1285 1392 22.50% 27.70% 49.79%-0.62 +23.2 2
1972-09-11 @ Floriana L 1-254.7 1392 1285 49.79% 27.70% 22.50%+0.62 -23.2 0
1972-09-11 St. Georges W 1-038.3 1210 1067 53.71% 27.48% 18.81%+0.74 +11.5 2
1972-09-11 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-138.3 1067 1210 18.81% 27.48% 53.71%-0.74 -11.5 0
1972-09-11 St. Patrick W 2-031.7 1256 934 66.86% 25.59% 7.55%+1.70 +9.7 2
1972-09-11 @ Hibernians L 0-231.7 934 1256 7.55% 25.59% 66.86%-1.70 -9.7 0
1972-09-11 Valletta D 0-048.9 1248 1258 34.67% 27.97% 37.35%-0.09 +0.3 1
1972-09-11 @ Marsa D 0-048.9 1258 1248 37.35% 27.97% 34.67%+0.09 -0.3 1
1972-09-25 Birkirkara L 0-147.8 1308 1210 48.81% 27.74% 23.45%+0.49 -24.1 2
1972-09-25 @ Floriana W 1-047.8 1210 1308 23.45% 27.74% 48.81%-0.49 +24.1 3
1972-09-25 St. Patrick W 2-140.2 1222 924 65.51% 25.92% 8.57%+1.57 +5.5 4
1972-09-25 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-240.2 924 1222 8.57% 25.92% 65.51%-1.57 -5.5 0
1972-09-25 St. Georges W 1-037.0 1249 1055 58.26% 27.08% 14.66%+1.00 +9.4 3
1972-09-25 @ Marsa L 0-137.0 1055 1249 14.66% 27.08% 58.26%-1.00 -9.4 0
1972-09-25 Gzira United W 3-036.5 1369 1273 48.48% 27.76% 23.76%+0.47 +38.0 2
1972-09-25 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-336.5 1273 1369 23.76% 27.76% 48.48%-0.47 -38.0 1
1972-09-25 Hibernians D 0-049.0 1257 1266 34.82% 27.97% 37.21%-0.09 +0.3 2
1972-09-25 @ Valletta D 0-049.0 1266 1257 37.21% 27.97% 34.82%+0.09 -0.3 3
1972-10-09 Hibernians D 0-048.9 1235 1266 31.69% 27.95% 40.35%-0.21 +1.0 4
1972-10-09 @ Birkirkara D 0-048.9 1266 1235 40.35% 27.95% 31.69%+0.21 -1.0 4
1972-10-09 St. Georges W 4-030.5 1284 1046 61.72% 26.64% 11.64%+1.25 +27.5 4
1972-10-09 @ Floriana L 0-430.5 1046 1284 11.64% 26.64% 61.72%-1.25 -27.4 0
1972-10-09 Sliema Wanderers L 1-438.5 1235 1407 16.39% 27.27% 56.34%-0.97 -23.8 1
1972-10-09 @ Gzira United W 4-138.5 1407 1235 56.34% 27.27% 16.39%+0.97 +23.8 4
1972-10-09 Hamrun Spartans L 1-445.0 1258 1227 40.30% 27.95% 31.74%+0.12 -47.6 3
1972-10-09 @ Marsa W 4-145.0 1227 1258 31.74% 27.95% 40.30%-0.12 +47.6 6
1972-10-09 St. Patrick W 4-133.8 1258 919 67.72% 25.35% 6.93%+1.79 +10.9 4
1972-10-09 @ Valletta L 1-433.8 919 1258 6.93% 25.35% 67.72%-1.79 -10.9 0
1972-10-16 Hibernians L 0-239.1 1212 1265 28.81% 27.91% 43.29%-0.33 -30.3 1
1972-10-16 @ Gzira United W 2-039.1 1265 1212 43.29% 27.91% 28.81%+0.33 +30.3 6
1972-10-16 Birkirkara D 0-048.8 1210 1236 32.48% 27.96% 39.56%-0.18 +0.8 4
1972-10-16 @ Marsa D 0-048.8 1236 1210 39.56% 27.96% 32.48%+0.18 -0.8 5
1972-10-16 Hamrun Spartans W 2-145.3 1430 1275 54.87% 27.40% 17.74%+0.80 +10.4 6
1972-10-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-245.3 1275 1430 17.74% 27.40% 54.87%-0.80 -10.4 6
1972-10-16 St. Patrick L 0-147.7 1019 908 50.24% 27.68% 22.08%+0.56 -24.8 0
1972-10-16 @ St. Georges W 1-047.7 908 1019 22.08% 27.68% 50.24%-0.56 +24.8 2
1972-10-16 Floriana W 1-046.1 1269 1312 30.08% 27.93% 41.99%-0.27 +21.3 6
1972-10-16 @ Valletta L 0-146.1 1312 1269 41.99% 27.93% 30.08%+0.27 -21.3 4
1972-10-23 Valletta D 1-153.9 1235 1290 28.53% 27.90% 43.57%-0.34 +1.5 6
1972-10-23 @ Birkirkara D 1-153.9 1290 1235 43.57% 27.90% 28.53%+0.34 -1.5 7
1972-10-23 St. Patrick W 2-033.0 1181 933 62.44% 26.52% 11.04%+1.30 +13.8 3
1972-10-23 @ Gzira United L 0-233.0 933 1181 11.04% 26.52% 62.44%-1.30 -13.8 2
1972-10-23 Sliema Wanderers L 0-336.0 1295 1441 18.59% 27.46% 53.94%-0.83 -31.3 6
1972-10-23 @ Hibernians W 3-036.0 1441 1295 53.94% 27.46% 18.59%+0.83 +31.3 8
1972-10-23 Floriana L 0-336.2 1211 1290 25.59% 27.82% 46.59%-0.47 -40.3 4
1972-10-23 @ Marsa W 3-036.2 1290 1211 46.59% 27.82% 25.59%+0.47 +40.3 6
1972-10-23 Hamrun Spartans L 0-429.8 994 1265 9.84% 26.26% 63.90%-1.51 -23.5 0
1972-10-23 @ St. Georges W 4-029.8 1265 994 63.90% 26.26% 9.84%+1.51 +23.5 8
1972-11-07 Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.0 1236 1288 28.94% 27.91% 43.15%-0.32 +1.6 7
1972-11-07 @ Birkirkara D 0-049.0 1288 1236 43.15% 27.91% 28.94%+0.32 -1.6 9
1972-11-07 Marsa W 3-033.6 1331 1171 55.28% 27.36% 17.36%+0.82 +29.6 8
1972-11-07 @ Floriana L 0-333.6 1171 1331 17.36% 27.36% 55.28%-0.82 -29.6 4
1972-11-07 Gzira United W 2-038.4 1264 1195 45.27% 27.86% 26.87%+0.33 +28.8 8
1972-11-07 @ Hibernians L 0-238.4 1195 1264 26.87% 27.86% 45.27%-0.33 -28.8 3
1972-11-07 St. Patrick D 1-155.5 1472 919 76.01% 21.67% 2.32%+2.95 -9.0 9
1972-11-07 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-155.5 919 1472 2.32% 21.67% 76.01%-2.95 +9.0 3
1972-11-07 Valletta L 0-134.4 970 1288 7.71% 25.65% 66.65%-1.76 -5.2 0
1972-11-07 @ St. Georges W 1-034.4 1288 970 66.65% 25.65% 7.71%+1.76 +5.2 9
1972-11-21 Hibernians W 2-147.6 1360 1292 45.19% 27.86% 26.94%+0.33 +14.4 10
1972-11-21 @ Floriana L 1-247.6 1292 1360 26.94% 27.86% 45.19%-0.33 -14.4 8
1972-11-21 Sliema Wanderers D 0-051.3 1287 1463 15.96% 27.23% 56.81%-1.00 +5.1 10
1972-11-21 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-051.3 1463 1287 56.81% 27.23% 15.96%+1.00 -5.1 10
1972-11-21 Marsa D 0-048.7 965 1141 15.97% 27.23% 56.80%-1.00 +5.1 1
1972-11-21 @ St. Georges D 0-048.7 1141 965 56.80% 27.23% 15.97%+1.00 -5.1 5
1972-11-21 Gzira United L 0-331.3 928 1166 11.64% 26.64% 61.73%-1.33 -21.0 3
1972-11-21 @ St. Patrick W 3-031.3 1166 928 61.73% 26.64% 11.64%+1.33 +21.0 5
1972-11-21 Birkirkara L 0-146.4 1294 1238 43.64% 27.90% 28.46%+0.26 -22.0 9
1972-11-21 @ Valletta W 1-046.4 1238 1294 28.46% 27.90% 43.64%-0.26 +22.0 9
1972-12-05 Birkirkara L 0-140.9 1187 1260 26.37% 27.85% 45.78%-0.43 -15.0 5
1972-12-05 @ Gzira United W 1-040.9 1260 1187 45.78% 27.85% 26.37%+0.43 +15.0 11
1972-12-05 Hamrun Spartans L 0-241.1 1278 1292 34.05% 27.97% 37.97%-0.12 -34.3 8
1972-12-05 @ Hibernians W 2-041.1 1292 1278 37.97% 27.97% 34.05%+0.12 +34.3 12
1972-12-05 Floriana L 0-230.6 970 1375 4.94% 24.34% 70.72%-2.23 -6.3 1
1972-12-05 @ St. Georges W 2-030.6 1375 970 70.72% 24.34% 4.94%+2.23 +6.3 12
1972-12-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-327.1 907 1458 2.35% 21.71% 75.94%-3.03 -4.2 3
1972-12-05 @ St. Patrick W 3-027.1 1458 907 75.94% 21.71% 2.35%+3.03 +4.2 12
1972-12-05 Marsa W 1-038.7 1272 1136 52.89% 27.53% 19.58%+0.69 +11.9 11
1972-12-05 @ Valletta L 0-138.7 1136 1272 19.58% 27.53% 52.89%-0.69 -11.9 5
1972-12-19 Floriana W 1-051.0 1172 1381 13.55% 26.94% 59.51%-1.17 +29.1 7
1972-12-19 @ Gzira United L 0-151.0 1381 1172 59.51% 26.94% 13.55%+1.17 -29.1 12
1972-12-19 Birkirkara D 0-049.4 1326 1275 43.05% 27.91% 29.04%+0.23 -1.6 13
1972-12-19 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.4 1275 1326 29.04% 27.91% 43.05%-0.23 +1.6 12
1972-12-19 Hibernians W 1-038.2 1462 1244 60.27% 26.84% 12.89%+1.14 +8.4 14
1972-12-19 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-138.2 1244 1462 12.89% 26.84% 60.27%-1.14 -8.4 8
1972-12-19 Marsa L 0-331.6 903 1124 12.69% 26.81% 60.50%-1.24 -22.7 3
1972-12-19 @ St. Patrick W 3-031.6 1124 903 60.50% 26.81% 12.69%+1.24 +22.7 7
1972-12-19 St. Georges W 2-031.7 1284 964 66.74% 25.62% 7.64%+1.69 +9.8 13
1972-12-19 @ Valletta L 0-231.7 964 1284 7.64% 25.62% 66.74%-1.69 -9.8 1
1973-01-09 Floriana L 0-141.7 1277 1352 26.04% 27.84% 46.12%-0.45 -14.9 12
1973-01-09 @ Birkirkara W 1-041.7 1352 1277 46.12% 27.84% 26.04%+0.45 +14.9 14
1973-01-09 Marsa D 0-048.7 1235 1147 47.68% 27.79% 24.53%+0.44 -2.7 9
1973-01-09 @ Hibernians D 0-048.7 1147 1235 24.53% 27.79% 47.68%-0.44 +2.7 8
1973-01-09 Sliema Wanderers L 0-132.2 954 1470 2.80% 22.36% 74.85%-2.84 -1.8 1
1973-01-09 @ St. Georges W 1-032.2 1470 954 74.85% 22.36% 2.80%+2.84 +1.8 16
1973-01-09 Hamrun Spartans L 1-530.5 880 1324 4.03% 23.66% 72.30%-2.45 -8.1 3
1973-01-09 @ St. Patrick W 5-130.5 1324 880 72.30% 23.66% 4.03%+2.45 +8.1 15
1973-01-09 Gzira United D 1-153.9 1293 1201 48.11% 27.77% 24.12%+0.46 -2.5 14
1973-01-09 @ Valletta D 1-153.9 1201 1293 24.12% 27.77% 48.11%-0.46 +2.5 8
1973-01-23 Marsa D 0-048.8 1262 1150 50.39% 27.67% 21.93%+0.56 -3.4 13
1973-01-23 @ Birkirkara D 0-048.8 1150 1262 21.93% 27.67% 50.39%-0.56 +3.4 9
1973-01-23 Gzira United W 1-038.4 1367 1204 55.57% 27.34% 17.09%+0.84 +10.7 16
1973-01-23 @ Floriana L 0-138.4 1204 1367 17.09% 27.34% 55.57%-0.84 -10.7 8
1973-01-23 Valletta W 1-042.9 1333 1291 41.82% 27.93% 30.25%+0.18 +16.7 17
1973-01-23 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-142.9 1291 1333 30.25% 27.93% 41.82%-0.18 -16.7 14
1973-01-23 St. Georges D 0-050.4 1472 952 74.97% 22.29% 2.74%+2.78 -9.9 17
1973-01-23 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-050.4 952 1472 2.74% 22.29% 74.97%-2.78 +9.9 2
1973-01-23 Hibernians L 1-531.5 872 1233 6.19% 25.03% 68.78%-1.99 -12.6 3
1973-01-23 @ St. Patrick W 5-131.5 1233 872 68.78% 25.03% 6.19%+1.99 +12.6 11
1973-01-30 Sliema Wanderers L 1-438.5 1258 1462 13.86% 26.98% 59.16%-1.15 -20.6 13
1973-01-30 @ Birkirkara W 4-138.5 1462 1258 59.16% 26.98% 13.86%+1.15 +20.6 19
1973-01-30 Floriana L 0-237.0 1245 1377 19.87% 27.55% 52.57%-0.76 -22.7 11
1973-01-30 @ Hibernians W 2-037.0 1377 1245 52.57% 27.55% 19.87%+0.76 +22.8 18
1973-01-30 Gzira United L 0-142.0 1153 1193 30.46% 27.94% 41.60%-0.26 -16.8 9
1973-01-30 @ Marsa W 1-042.0 1193 1153 41.60% 27.94% 30.46%+0.26 +16.8 10
1973-01-30 St. Georges L 2-445.3 859 962 22.93% 27.72% 49.35%-0.60 -19.7 3
1973-01-30 @ St. Patrick W 4-245.3 962 859 49.35% 27.72% 22.93%+0.60 +19.7 4
1973-01-30 Hamrun Spartans W 3-043.1 1274 1349 26.06% 27.84% 46.10%-0.45 +62.9 16
1973-01-30 @ Valletta L 0-343.1 1349 1274 46.10% 27.84% 26.06%+0.45 -62.9 17
1973-02-06 Gzira United D 0-048.9 1286 1210 46.24% 27.83% 25.93%+0.37 -2.4 18
1973-02-06 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-048.9 1210 1286 25.93% 27.83% 46.24%-0.37 +2.4 11
1973-02-06 St. Patrick W 5-236.6 1136 840 65.46% 25.93% 8.61%+1.56 +11.6 11
1973-02-06 @ Marsa L 2-536.6 840 1136 8.61% 25.93% 65.46%-1.56 -11.6 3
1973-02-06 Birkirkara L 1-338.1 982 1238 10.63% 26.44% 62.93%-1.43 -11.5 4
1973-02-06 @ St. Georges W 3-138.1 1238 982 62.93% 26.44% 10.63%+1.43 +11.5 15
1973-02-06 Sliema Wanderers W 2-158.3 1337 1483 18.58% 27.46% 53.96%-0.83 +25.0 18
1973-02-06 @ Valletta L 1-258.3 1483 1337 53.96% 27.46% 18.58%+0.83 -25.0 19
1973-02-20 St. Georges D 1-153.8 1212 970 62.00% 26.59% 11.41%+1.27 -5.9 12
1973-02-20 @ Gzira United D 1-153.8 970 1212 11.41% 26.59% 62.00%-1.27 +5.9 5
1973-02-20 Marsa W 1-038.7 1284 1148 52.95% 27.53% 19.52%+0.69 +11.9 20
1973-02-20 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-138.7 1148 1284 19.52% 27.53% 52.95%-0.69 -11.9 11
1973-02-20 Birkirkara D 0-050.8 1458 1249 59.54% 26.94% 13.53%+1.09 -5.9 20
1973-02-20 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-050.8 1249 1458 13.53% 26.94% 59.54%-1.09 +5.9 16
1973-02-20 Valletta L 0-827.0 828 1362 2.56% 22.03% 75.41%-2.93 -11.5 3
1973-02-20 @ St. Patrick W 8-027.0 1362 828 75.41% 22.03% 2.56%+2.93 +11.5 20
1973-03-06 St. Georges W 2-032.4 1255 976 64.40% 26.16% 9.44%+1.47 +12.0 18
1973-03-06 @ Birkirkara L 0-232.4 976 1255 9.44% 26.16% 64.40%-1.47 -11.9 5
1973-03-06 St. Patrick W 2-028.7 1400 817 76.94% 21.07% 1.99%+3.12 +2.4 20
1973-03-06 @ Floriana L 0-228.7 817 1400 1.99% 21.07% 76.94%-3.12 -2.4 3
1973-03-06 Marsa W 2-146.3 1207 1136 45.51% 27.86% 26.63%+0.34 +14.3 14
1973-03-06 @ Gzira United L 1-246.3 1136 1207 26.63% 27.86% 45.51%-0.34 -14.3 11
1973-03-06 Valletta L 0-138.9 1222 1374 18.11% 27.43% 54.46%-0.86 -11.2 11
1973-03-06 @ Hibernians W 1-038.9 1374 1222 54.46% 27.43% 18.11%+0.86 +11.2 22
1973-03-20 Hamrun Spartans L 0-238.4 1221 1296 26.08% 27.84% 46.08%-0.45 -28.1 14
1973-03-20 @ Gzira United W 2-038.4 1296 1221 46.08% 27.84% 26.08%+0.45 +28.1 22
1973-03-20 Hibernians L 0-237.5 1122 1211 24.40% 27.78% 47.82%-0.53 -26.7 11
1973-03-20 @ Marsa W 2-037.5 1211 1122 47.82% 27.78% 24.40%+0.53 +26.7 13
1973-03-20 Valletta W 5-143.1 1452 1385 45.15% 27.87% 26.99%+0.32 +45.7 22
1973-03-20 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-543.1 1385 1452 26.99% 27.87% 45.15%-0.32 -45.7 22
1973-03-20 Floriana L 0-425.8 814 1403 1.94% 20.98% 77.08%-3.23 -4.4 3
1973-03-20 @ St. Patrick W 4-025.8 1403 814 77.08% 20.98% 1.94%+3.23 +4.4 22
1973-03-27 Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.8 1407 1324 47.06% 27.81% 25.13%+0.41 -2.3 23
1973-03-27 @ Floriana D 1-155.8 1324 1407 25.13% 27.81% 47.06%-0.41 +2.3 23
1973-03-27 Valletta D 1-154.1 1193 1339 18.54% 27.46% 54.00%-0.83 +3.9 15
1973-03-27 @ Gzira United D 1-154.1 1339 1193 54.00% 27.46% 18.54%+0.83 -3.9 23
1973-03-27 Marsa L 1-259.2 1498 1095 70.65% 24.36% 4.98%+2.14 -32.5 22
1973-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-159.2 1095 1498 4.98% 24.36% 70.65%-2.14 +32.5 13
1973-03-27 Hibernians D 0-049.0 964 1238 9.69% 26.22% 64.08%-1.52 +7.2 6
1973-03-27 @ St. Georges D 0-049.0 1238 964 64.08% 26.22% 9.69%+1.52 -7.2 14
1973-03-27 Birkirkara L 1-335.1 810 1267 3.78% 23.44% 72.79%-2.52 -4.1 3
1973-03-27 @ St. Patrick W 3-135.1 1267 810 72.79% 23.44% 3.78%+2.52 +4.1 20
1973-04-03 St. Patrick W 2-029.8 1271 806 73.09% 23.29% 3.62%+2.48 +4.6 22
1973-04-03 @ Birkirkara L 0-229.8 806 1271 3.62% 23.29% 73.09%-2.48 -4.6 3
1973-04-03 Valletta D 2-261.1 1405 1335 45.40% 27.86% 26.74%+0.33 -1.4 24
1973-04-03 @ Floriana D 2-261.1 1335 1405 26.74% 27.86% 45.40%-0.33 +1.4 24
1973-04-03 Hibernians W 1-040.5 1326 1231 48.53% 27.75% 23.71%+0.48 +13.9 25
1973-04-03 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-140.5 1231 1326 23.71% 27.75% 48.53%-0.48 -13.9 14
1973-04-03 Sliema Wanderers D 2-260.3 1128 1465 6.96% 25.37% 67.67%-1.87 +5.5 14
1973-04-03 @ Marsa D 2-260.3 1465 1128 67.67% 25.37% 6.96%+1.87 -5.5 23
1973-04-03 Gzira United W 1-050.6 971 1197 12.45% 26.77% 60.78%-1.26 +29.8 8
1973-04-03 @ St. Georges L 0-150.6 1197 971 60.78% 26.77% 12.45%+1.26 -29.8 15
1973-04-17 Floriana L 0-143.5 1340 1403 27.52% 27.88% 44.60%-0.38 -15.5 25
1973-04-17 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-043.5 1403 1340 44.60% 27.88% 27.52%+0.38 +15.5 26
1973-04-17 St. Georges D 0-048.8 1217 1001 60.06% 26.87% 13.07%+1.13 -6.0 15
1973-04-17 @ Hibernians D 0-048.8 1001 1217 13.07% 26.87% 60.06%-1.13 +6.0 9
1973-05-01 Birkirkara L 1-246.7 1211 1276 27.31% 27.87% 44.82%-0.39 -14.6 15
1973-05-01 @ Hibernians W 2-146.7 1276 1211 44.82% 27.87% 27.31%+0.39 +14.6 24
1973-05-01 Floriana W 2-153.0 1460 1419 41.72% 27.94% 30.34%+0.18 +15.8 25
1973-05-01 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-253.0 1419 1460 30.34% 27.94% 41.72%-0.18 -15.8 26

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1973-05-08 Hamrun Spartans W 3-037.1 1476 1325 54.45% 27.43% 18.12%+0.78 +30.6 1-0
1973-05-08 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-337.1 1325 1476 18.12% 27.43% 54.45%-0.78 -30.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1973-03-27 4.98% Marsa 1095 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1498 1
2 1973-04-03 12.45% @ St. Georges 971 1 Gzira United 1197 0
3 1972-12-19 13.55% @ Gzira United 1172 1 Floriana 1381 0
4 1973-02-06 18.58% @ Valletta 1337 2 Sliema Wanderers 1483 1
5 1972-10-16 22.08% St. Patrick 908 1 @ St. Georges 1019 0
6 1972-09-11 22.50% @ Floriana 1285 2 Sliema Wanderers 1392 1
7 1972-09-25 23.45% Birkirkara 1210 1 @ Floriana 1308 0
8 1973-01-30 26.06% @ Valletta 1274 3 Hamrun Spartans 1349 0
9 1972-11-21 28.46% Birkirkara 1238 1 @ Valletta 1294 0
10 1972-10-16 30.08% @ Valletta 1269 1 Floriana 1312 0
11 1972-10-09 31.74% Hamrun Spartans 1227 4 @ Marsa 1258 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-01-30 62.94 @ Valletta 3 1274 26.06% Hamrun Spartans 0 1349 46.10% 27.84%
2 1972-10-09 47.60 Hamrun Spartans 4 1227 31.74% @ Marsa 1 1258 40.30% 27.95%
3 1973-03-20 45.65 @ Sliema Wanderers 5 1452 45.15% Valletta 1 1385 26.99% 27.87%
4 1972-10-23 40.27 Floriana 3 1290 46.59% @ Marsa 0 1211 25.59% 27.82%
5 1972-09-25 38.03 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1369 48.48% Gzira United 0 1273 23.76% 27.76%
6 1972-12-05 34.31 Hamrun Spartans 2 1292 37.97% @ Hibernians 0 1278 34.05% 27.97%
7 1973-03-27 32.53 Marsa 2 1095 4.98% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1498 70.65% 24.36%
8 1972-10-23 31.31 Sliema Wanderers 3 1441 53.94% @ Hibernians 0 1295 18.59% 27.46%
9 1973-05-08 * 30.65 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1476 54.45% Hamrun Spartans 0 1325 18.12% 27.43%
10 1972-10-16 30.33 Hibernians 2 1265 43.29% @ Gzira United 0 1212 28.81% 27.91%
11 1973-04-03 29.76 @ St. Georges 1 971 12.45% Gzira United 0 1197 60.78% 26.77%
12 1972-11-07 29.59 @ Floriana 3 1331 55.28% Marsa 0 1171 17.36% 27.36%
13 1972-12-19 29.13 @ Gzira United 1 1172 13.55% Floriana 0 1381 59.51% 26.94%
14 1972-11-07 28.77 @ Hibernians 2 1264 45.27% Gzira United 0 1195 26.87% 27.86%
15 1973-03-20 28.13 Hamrun Spartans 2 1296 46.08% @ Gzira United 0 1221 26.08% 27.84%
16 1972-10-09 27.45 @ Floriana 4 1284 61.72% St. Georges 0 1046 11.64% 26.64%
17 1973-03-20 26.73 Hibernians 2 1211 47.82% @ Marsa 0 1122 24.40% 27.78%
18 1973-02-06 24.96 @ Valletta 2 1337 18.58% Sliema Wanderers 1 1483 53.96% 27.46%
19 1972-10-16 24.78 St. Patrick 1 908 22.08% @ St. Georges 0 1019 50.24% 27.68%
20 1972-09-25 24.15 Birkirkara 1 1210 23.45% @ Floriana 0 1308 48.81% 27.74%
21 1972-10-09 23.79 Sliema Wanderers 4 1407 56.34% @ Gzira United 1 1235 16.39% 27.27%
22 1972-10-23 23.55 Hamrun Spartans 4 1265 63.90% @ St. Georges 0 994 9.84% 26.26%
23 1972-09-11 23.18 @ Floriana 2 1285 22.50% Sliema Wanderers 1 1392 49.79% 27.70%
24 1973-01-30 22.75 Floriana 2 1377 52.57% @ Hibernians 0 1245 19.87% 27.55%
25 1972-12-19 22.67 Marsa 3 1124 60.50% @ St. Patrick 0 903 12.69% 26.81%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-04-03 61.1 @ Floriana 2 1405 45.40% Valletta 2 1335 26.74% 27.86%
2 1973-04-03 60.3 @ Marsa 2 1128 6.96% Sliema Wanderers 2 1465 67.67% 25.37%
3 1973-03-27 59.2 Marsa 2 1095 4.98% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1498 70.65% 24.36%
4 1973-02-06 58.3 @ Valletta 2 1337 18.58% Sliema Wanderers 1 1483 53.96% 27.46%
5 1973-03-27 55.8 @ Floriana 1 1407 47.06% Hamrun Spartans 1 1324 25.13% 27.81%
6 1972-11-07 55.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1472 76.01% St. Patrick 1 919 2.32% 21.67%
7 1972-09-11 54.7 @ Floriana 2 1285 22.50% Sliema Wanderers 1 1392 49.79% 27.70%
8 1973-03-27 54.1 @ Gzira United 1 1193 18.54% Valletta 1 1339 54.00% 27.46%
9 1972-10-23 53.9 @ Birkirkara 1 1235 28.53% Valletta 1 1290 43.57% 27.90%
10 1973-01-09 53.9 @ Valletta 1 1293 48.11% Gzira United 1 1201 24.12% 27.77%
11 1973-02-20 53.8 @ Gzira United 1 1212 62.00% St. Georges 1 970 11.41% 26.59%
12 1973-05-01 53.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1460 41.72% Floriana 1 1419 30.34% 27.94%
13 1972-11-21 51.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1287 15.96% Sliema Wanderers 0 1463 56.81% 27.23%
14 1972-12-19 51.0 @ Gzira United 1 1172 13.55% Floriana 0 1381 59.51% 26.94%
15 1973-02-20 50.8 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1458 59.54% Birkirkara 0 1249 13.53% 26.94%
16 1973-04-03 50.6 @ St. Georges 1 971 12.45% Gzira United 0 1197 60.78% 26.77%
17 1973-01-23 50.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1472 74.97% St. Georges 0 952 2.74% 22.29%
18 1972-12-19 49.4 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1326 43.05% Birkirkara 0 1275 29.04% 27.91%
19 1972-09-25 49.0 @ Valletta 0 1257 34.82% Hibernians 0 1266 37.21% 27.97%
20 1972-11-07 49.0 @ Birkirkara 0 1236 28.94% Hamrun Spartans 0 1288 43.15% 27.91%
21 1973-03-27 49.0 @ St. Georges 0 964 9.69% Hibernians 0 1238 64.08% 26.22%
22 1972-09-11 48.9 @ Birkirkara 0 1208 27.02% Gzira United 0 1276 45.11% 27.87%
23 1972-09-11 48.9 @ Marsa 0 1248 34.67% Valletta 0 1258 37.35% 27.97%
24 1972-10-09 48.9 @ Birkirkara 0 1235 31.69% Hibernians 0 1266 40.35% 27.95%
25 1973-02-06 48.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1286 46.24% Gzira United 0 1210 25.93% 27.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-03-20 25.8 Floriana 4 1403 77.08% @ St. Patrick 0 814 1.94% 20.98%
2 1973-02-20 27.0 Valletta 8 1362 75.41% @ St. Patrick 0 828 2.56% 22.03%
3 1972-12-05 27.1 Sliema Wanderers 3 1458 75.94% @ St. Patrick 0 907 2.35% 21.71%
4 1973-03-06 28.7 @ Floriana 2 1400 76.94% St. Patrick 0 817 1.99% 21.07%
5 1972-10-23 29.8 Hamrun Spartans 4 1265 63.90% @ St. Georges 0 994 9.84% 26.26%
6 1973-04-03 29.8 @ Birkirkara 2 1271 73.09% St. Patrick 0 806 3.62% 23.29%
7 1972-10-09 30.5 @ Floriana 4 1284 61.72% St. Georges 0 1046 11.64% 26.64%
8 1973-01-09 30.5 Hamrun Spartans 5 1324 72.30% @ St. Patrick 1 880 4.03% 23.66%
9 1972-12-05 30.6 Floriana 2 1375 70.72% @ St. Georges 0 970 4.94% 24.34%
10 1972-11-21 31.3 Gzira United 3 1166 61.73% @ St. Patrick 0 928 11.64% 26.64%
11 1973-01-23 31.5 Hibernians 5 1233 68.78% @ St. Patrick 1 872 6.19% 25.03%
12 1972-12-19 31.6 Marsa 3 1124 60.50% @ St. Patrick 0 903 12.69% 26.81%
13 1972-09-11 31.7 @ Hibernians 2 1256 66.86% St. Patrick 0 934 7.55% 25.59%
14 1972-12-19 31.7 @ Valletta 2 1284 66.74% St. Georges 0 964 7.64% 25.62%
15 1973-01-09 32.2 Sliema Wanderers 1 1470 74.85% @ St. Georges 0 954 2.80% 22.36%
16 1973-03-06 32.4 @ Birkirkara 2 1255 64.40% St. Georges 0 976 9.44% 26.16%
17 1972-10-23 33.0 @ Gzira United 2 1181 62.44% St. Patrick 0 933 11.04% 26.52%
18 1972-11-07 33.6 @ Floriana 3 1331 55.28% Marsa 0 1171 17.36% 27.36%
19 1972-10-09 33.8 @ Valletta 4 1258 67.72% St. Patrick 1 919 6.93% 25.35%
20 1972-11-07 34.4 Valletta 1 1288 66.65% @ St. Georges 0 970 7.71% 25.65%
21 1973-03-27 35.1 Birkirkara 3 1267 72.79% @ St. Patrick 1 810 3.78% 23.44%
22 1972-10-23 36.0 Sliema Wanderers 3 1441 53.94% @ Hibernians 0 1295 18.59% 27.46%
23 1972-10-23 36.2 Floriana 3 1290 46.59% @ Marsa 0 1211 25.59% 27.82%
24 1972-09-25 36.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1369 48.48% Gzira United 0 1273 23.76% 27.76%
25 1973-02-06 36.6 @ Marsa 5 1136 65.46% St. Patrick 2 840 8.61% 25.93%