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1988-89 Maltese Premier League Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Sliema Wanderers

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sliema Wanderers

6.35 points above expected

26 points · 19.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Naxxar Lions

4.72 points below expected

12 points · 16.72 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 16 11 4 1 26 32 16 +16 19.65 +6.35
2 Valletta 16 9 5 2 23 24 9 +15 17.50 +5.50
3 Hamrun Spartans 16 8 4 4 20 31 15 +16 22.41 -2.41
4 Floriana 16 6 6 4 18 20 15 +5 16.54 +1.46
5 Zurrieq 16 5 4 7 14 14 21 -7 13.81 +0.19
6 Hibernians 16 2 8 6 12 16 21 -5 13.03 -1.03
7 Rabat Ajax 16 2 8 6 12 14 26 -12 13.86 -1.86
8 Naxxar Lions 16 3 6 7 12 10 22 -12 16.72 -4.72
9 Birkirkara 16 1 5 10 7 14 30 -16 10.48 -3.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 26 19.65 +6.35
2 Valletta 23 17.50 +5.50
3 Floriana 18 16.54 +1.46
4 Zurrieq 14 13.81 +0.19
5 Hibernians 12 13.03 -1.03

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Naxxar Lions 12 16.72 -4.72
2 Birkirkara 7 10.48 -3.48
3 Hamrun Spartans 20 22.41 -2.41
4 Rabat Ajax 12 13.86 -1.86
5 Hibernians 12 13.03 -1.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sliema Wanderers 6 Jan 28 – Mar 26 1 in 168
2 Valletta 5 Dec 4 – Feb 4 1 in 58
3 Floriana 3 Aug 27 – Sep 18 1 in 15
4 Zurrieq 2 Jan 29 – Feb 18 1 in 15
5 Hamrun Spartans 3 Aug 28 – Sep 27 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 2 Mar 5 – Mar 12 1 in 57
2 Birkirkara 5 Sep 17 – Nov 20 1 in 23
3 Zurrieq 3 Aug 28 – Sep 18 1 in 20
4 Hibernians 2 Aug 27 – Sep 11 1 in 9
5 Sliema Wanderers 1 Dec 3 – Dec 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Birkirkara 4 Nov 27 – Jan 14 1 in 16
2 Zurrieq 5 Oct 2 – Dec 3 1 in 10
3 Valletta 7 Nov 20 – Feb 4 1 in 8
4 Rabat Ajax 5 Sep 18 – Nov 20 1 in 7
5 Sliema Wanderers 8 Dec 18 – Mar 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floriana 7 Oct 1 – Jan 7 1 in 24
2 Sliema Wanderers 4 Nov 26 – Jan 14 1 in 19
3 Hibernians 10 Oct 2 – Feb 18 1 in 15
4 Hamrun Spartans 3 Nov 20 – Dec 4 1 in 11
5 Naxxar Lions 5 Sep 3 – Oct 30 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sliema Wanderers 1178 26 +84 10 6.3 +3.7
Valletta 1130 23 +10 6 6.1 -0.1
Hamrun Spartans 1080 20 -99 3 7.1 -4.1
Floriana 966 18 +11 5 4.3 +0.7
Zurrieq 929 14 +132 7 4.5 +2.5
Rabat Ajax 832 12 +11 5 4.7 +0.3
Hibernians 845 12 -5 4 3.9 +0.1
Naxxar Lions 804 12 -106 3 4.5 -1.5
Birkirkara 736 7 -70 1 3.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB NL RA SW VAL ZUR
Birkirkara —
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-2
0.84
0-1-1
2.28
1-1-0
1.17
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
1.16
0-2-0
1.13
0-0-2
2.08
Floriana
1-1-0
3.30
 —
1-1-0
1.54
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.54
0-0-2
1.60
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
3.39
Hamrun Spartans
2-0-0
4.55
0-1-1
3.75
 —
0-2-0
4.13
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
4.05
0-1-1
3.29
0-0-2
3.67
2-0-0
3.27
Hibernians
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
1.98
0-2-0
1.19
 —
1-0-1
1.78
0-2-0
2.47
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
2.90
Naxxar Lions
0-1-1
4.15
1-1-0
2.23
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
3.50
 —
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
3.09
Rabat Ajax
2-0-0
3.33
0-1-1
1.74
0-0-2
1.26
0-2-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.45
 —
0-1-1
2.22
0-1-1
1.79
0-2-0
2.48
Sliema Wanderers
2-0-0
4.17
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
1.98
1-1-0
4.21
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.07
 —
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
4.04
Valletta
0-2-0
4.22
1-1-0
3.05
2-0-0
1.62
2-0-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
2.06
 —
2-0-0
3.04
Zurrieq
2-0-0
3.19
0-0-2
1.88
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
2.17
0-2-0
2.79
1-0-1
1.27
0-0-2
2.23
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +6.7
Allowed 0.77 -8.4
Differential 0.90 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%4.86%3.47%2.08%—29.86%
111.11%18.06%4.17%2.08%1.39%0.69%37.50%
24.86%4.17%6.94%2.78%——18.75%
33.47%2.08%2.78%1.39%——9.72%
42.08%1.39%————3.47%
5+—0.69%————0.69%
Total29.86%37.50%18.75%9.72%3.47%0.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.12 1.64
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%—12.50%——31.25%
1—18.75%12.50%12.50%6.25%—50.00%
26.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%18.75%31.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.88 -1.00
SD 0.72 1.20 1.37
CV 0.82 0.64 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
112.50%31.25%————43.75%
2—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
312.50%—6.25%———18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%56.25%18.75%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.94 +0.31
SD 1.06 0.68 1.35
CV 0.85 0.73 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%————18.75%
1—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
212.50%—12.50%———25.00%
312.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
46.25%6.25%————12.50%
5+———————
Total31.25%43.75%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.94 +1.00
SD 1.34 0.77 1.71
CV 0.69 0.82 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
1—18.75%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
26.25%6.25%18.75%———31.25%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%37.50%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.31 -0.31
SD 0.82 0.87 1.01
CV 0.82 0.67 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—25.00%6.25%——37.50%
118.75%31.25%6.25%—6.25%—62.50%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%31.25%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 1.38 -0.75
SD 0.50 1.15 1.39
CV 0.80 0.83 —
Max 1 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%6.25%—6.25%6.25%—43.75%
16.25%18.75%———6.25%31.25%
2—6.25%—12.50%——18.75%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%31.25%—25.00%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.62 -0.75
SD 0.96 1.63 1.57
CV 1.09 1.00 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
131.25%6.25%————37.50%
2—6.25%12.50%———18.75%
36.25%6.25%12.50%6.25%——31.25%
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total37.50%31.25%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.00 +1.00
SD 1.26 0.97 1.21
CV 0.63 0.97 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%————18.75%
118.75%18.75%————37.50%
212.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
3———————
412.50%—————12.50%
5+———————
Total50.00%43.75%6.25%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.56 +0.94
SD 1.21 0.63 1.48
CV 0.81 1.12 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%12.50%6.25%6.25%12.50%—56.25%
112.50%6.25%————18.75%
26.25%——6.25%——12.50%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total37.50%31.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.31 -0.44
SD 1.26 1.45 2.06
CV 1.44 1.10 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sliema Wanderers 1178 26 19.65 +6.35 98.0% 11 15 18 19 22 25 27
Valletta 1130 23 17.50 +5.50 97.0% 11 13 16 17 19 22 26
Hamrun Spartans 1080 20 22.41 -2.41 23.0% 15 18 21 22 24 26 29
Floriana 966 18 16.54 +1.46 67.0% 9 11 14 17 19 21 24
Zurrieq 929 14 13.81 +0.19 60.0% 8 9 12 14 16 18 21
Hibernians 845 12 13.03 -1.03 42.0% 5 8 11 13 15 18 20
Rabat Ajax 832 12 13.86 -1.86 34.0% 8 9 12 13 16 19 21
Naxxar Lions 804 12 16.72 -4.72 12.0% 10 11 15 17 19 21 23
Birkirkara 736 7 10.48 -3.48 15.0% 4 6 8 11 12 15 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.72%
Strong Edge
37.50%34.72%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 33.89 Elo pts.
293 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
Sliema Wanderers, 2nd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.4 * Some Luck: 2.4 to 3.6 * Lucky: 3.6 to 4.8 * Wild Swing: 4.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.07 * Close: 1.07 to 1.61 * Off: 1.61 to 2.15 * Way Off: 2.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.61 points
Lucky
03.007
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.56
Close
01.343
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
98.00%
Sliema Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
12.00%
Naxxar Lions
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 155.57
1.90
Moderate Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
81%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
93%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Notable Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.45
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Upset-Prone
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.31 * Above Noise: 0.31 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.82
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.147
Well Within Noise
00.2040.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Sliema Wanderers24.00%32.00%19.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%—
Valletta4.00%17.00%22.00%19.00%23.00%8.00%5.00%2.00%—
Hamrun Spartans65.00%20.00%11.00%2.00%2.00%————
Floriana3.00%15.00%18.00%19.00%14.00%17.00%4.00%6.00%4.00%
Zurrieq—2.00%1.00%13.00%12.00%17.00%27.00%17.00%11.00%
Hibernians——7.00%7.00%7.00%24.00%19.00%20.00%16.00%
Rabat Ajax—5.00%4.00%6.00%15.00%13.00%22.00%25.00%10.00%
Naxxar Lions4.00%9.00%18.00%20.00%18.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%
Birkirkara———2.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%22.00%56.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 99.00% 1.00%
Valletta 98.00% 2.00%
Floriana 90.00% 10.00%
Naxxar Lions 90.00% 10.00%
Zurrieq 72.00% 28.00%
Rabat Ajax 65.00% 35.00%
Hibernians 64.00% 36.00%
Birkirkara 22.00% 78.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1988-08-27 Floriana L 0-338.5 855 881 35.07% 36.83% 28.10%+0.03 -71.1 0
1988-08-27 @ Birkirkara W 3-038.5 881 855 28.10% 36.83% 35.07%-0.03 +71.1 2
1988-08-27 Valletta L 1-251.0 886 870 40.44% 36.73% 22.83%+0.17 -27.2 0
1988-08-27 @ Hibernians W 2-151.0 870 886 22.83% 36.73% 40.44%-0.17 +27.2 2
1988-08-28 Sliema Wanderers L 1-544.0 991 968 41.35% 36.69% 21.96%+0.20 -87.4 0
1988-08-28 @ Rabat Ajax W 5-144.0 968 991 21.96% 36.69% 41.35%-0.20 +87.4 2
1988-08-28 Hamrun Spartans L 0-439.1 996 1013 36.28% 36.82% 26.89%+0.06 -95.1 0
1988-08-28 @ Zurrieq W 4-039.1 1013 996 26.89% 36.82% 36.28%-0.06 +95.1 2
1988-09-03 Rabat Ajax W 3-029.8 1108 903 57.30% 34.47% 8.23%+0.81 +24.8 4
1988-09-03 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-329.8 903 1108 8.23% 34.47% 57.30%-0.81 -24.8 0
1988-09-03 Birkirkara D 1-150.5 1043 784 60.50% 33.34% 6.17%+1.00 -8.9 1
1988-09-03 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-150.5 784 1043 6.17% 33.34% 60.50%-1.00 +8.9 1
1988-09-11 Hibernians W 1-037.0 952 858 48.79% 36.14% 15.07%+0.44 +14.7 4
1988-09-11 @ Floriana L 0-137.0 858 952 15.07% 36.14% 48.79%-0.44 -14.7 0
1988-09-11 Zurrieq W 1-040.2 897 901 38.03% 36.80% 25.17%+0.10 +20.9 4
1988-09-11 @ Valletta L 0-140.2 901 897 25.17% 36.80% 38.03%-0.10 -21.0 0
1988-09-17 Birkirkara W 2-144.5 844 793 44.50% 36.52% 18.97%+0.29 +16.3 2
1988-09-17 @ Hibernians L 1-244.5 793 844 18.97% 36.52% 44.50%-0.29 -16.3 1
1988-09-17 Naxxar Lions W 2-145.5 1055 1034 41.07% 36.71% 22.22%+0.19 +18.2 4
1988-09-17 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-245.5 1034 1055 22.22% 36.71% 41.07%-0.19 -18.2 1
1988-09-18 Zurrieq W 3-032.5 967 880 48.18% 36.21% 15.61%+0.41 +41.3 6
1988-09-18 @ Floriana L 0-332.5 880 967 15.61% 36.21% 48.18%-0.41 -41.3 0
1988-09-18 Rabat Ajax D 1-149.5 918 879 43.22% 36.60% 20.18%+0.25 -3.2 5
1988-09-18 @ Valletta D 1-149.5 879 918 20.18% 36.60% 43.22%-0.25 +3.2 1
1988-09-27 Naxxar Lions W 3-031.7 1133 1016 50.87% 35.87% 13.26%+0.51 +36.6 6
1988-09-27 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-331.7 1016 1133 13.26% 35.87% 50.87%-0.51 -36.6 1
1988-09-27 Birkirkara W 3-244.1 1073 776 62.45% 32.46% 5.10%+1.13 +5.2 6
1988-09-27 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-344.1 776 1073 5.10% 32.46% 62.45%-1.13 -5.2 1
1988-10-01 Floriana D 1-149.5 882 1008 21.92% 36.47% 41.61%-0.32 +2.7 2
1988-10-01 @ Rabat Ajax D 1-149.5 1008 882 41.61% 36.47% 21.92%+0.32 -2.7 7
1988-10-01 Hamrun Spartans D 2-255.7 1078 1169 26.16% 36.70% 37.15%-0.19 +1.1 7
1988-10-01 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-255.7 1169 1078 37.15% 36.70% 26.16%+0.19 -1.1 7
1988-10-02 Valletta D 1-149.6 979 915 45.93% 36.42% 17.65%+0.34 -4.0 2
1988-10-02 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-149.6 915 979 17.65% 36.42% 45.93%-0.34 +4.0 6
1988-10-02 Hibernians D 1-149.4 838 860 35.63% 36.83% 27.54%+0.04 -1.0 1
1988-10-02 @ Zurrieq D 1-149.4 860 838 27.54% 36.83% 35.63%-0.04 +1.0 3
1988-10-23 Rabat Ajax D 0-044.2 861 884 35.42% 36.83% 27.75%+0.04 -1.1 4
1988-10-23 @ Hibernians D 0-044.2 884 861 27.75% 36.83% 35.42%-0.04 +1.1 3
1988-10-23 Birkirkara W 3-140.7 837 771 46.10% 36.41% 17.50%+0.34 +26.7 3
1988-10-23 @ Zurrieq L 1-340.7 771 837 17.50% 36.41% 46.10%-0.34 -26.7 1
1988-10-30 Naxxar Lions D 1-149.5 1005 975 42.15% 36.66% 21.19%+0.22 -2.9 8
1988-10-30 @ Floriana D 1-149.5 975 1005 21.19% 36.66% 42.15%-0.22 +2.9 3
1988-10-30 Sliema Wanderers L 0-138.0 919 1079 18.33% 36.15% 45.53%-0.43 -16.8 6
1988-10-30 @ Valletta W 1-038.0 1079 919 45.53% 36.15% 18.33%+0.43 +16.8 9
1988-11-06 Hamrun Spartans L 1-432.6 744 1168 4.67% 30.94% 64.39%-1.33 -11.7 1
1988-11-06 @ Birkirkara W 4-132.6 1168 744 64.39% 30.94% 4.67%+1.33 +11.7 9
1988-11-06 Zurrieq D 0-044.3 885 864 41.14% 36.70% 22.15%+0.19 -2.9 4
1988-11-06 @ Rabat Ajax D 0-044.3 864 885 22.15% 36.70% 41.14%-0.19 +2.9 4
1988-11-19 Hibernians W 1-036.3 978 860 50.99% 35.85% 13.16%+0.52 +13.3 5
1988-11-19 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-136.3 860 978 13.16% 35.85% 50.99%-0.52 -13.3 4
1988-11-19 Floriana W 1-037.0 1096 1002 48.82% 36.14% 15.04%+0.44 +14.7 11
1988-11-19 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-137.0 1002 1096 15.04% 36.14% 48.82%-0.44 -14.7 8
1988-11-20 Birkirkara W 2-141.8 883 733 53.54% 35.40% 11.05%+0.63 +10.9 6
1988-11-20 @ Rabat Ajax L 1-241.8 733 883 11.05% 35.40% 53.54%-0.63 -10.9 1
1988-11-20 Hamrun Spartans W 1-048.7 902 1180 9.78% 34.36% 55.86%-0.83 +38.1 8
1988-11-20 @ Valletta L 0-148.7 1180 902 55.86% 34.36% 9.78%+0.83 -38.1 9
1988-11-26 Sliema Wanderers D 2-256.2 847 1111 10.52% 34.62% 54.86%-0.79 +5.1 5
1988-11-26 @ Hibernians D 2-256.2 1111 847 54.86% 34.62% 10.52%+0.79 -5.1 12
1988-11-26 Naxxar Lions D 0-044.3 867 991 22.11% 36.48% 41.41%-0.31 +2.9 5
1988-11-26 @ Zurrieq D 0-044.3 991 867 41.41% 36.48% 22.11%+0.31 -2.9 6
1988-11-27 Valletta D 1-149.9 722 940 13.46% 35.39% 51.15%-0.63 +5.6 2
1988-11-27 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.9 940 722 51.15% 35.39% 13.46%+0.63 -5.6 9
1988-11-27 Hamrun Spartans D 1-149.6 988 1142 18.98% 36.22% 44.81%-0.41 +3.6 9
1988-11-27 @ Floriana D 1-149.6 1142 988 44.81% 36.22% 18.98%+0.41 -3.6 10
1988-12-03 Rabat Ajax W 1-036.9 988 894 48.92% 36.12% 14.96%+0.44 +14.6 8
1988-12-03 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-136.9 894 988 14.96% 36.12% 48.92%-0.44 -14.6 6
1988-12-03 Sliema Wanderers W 1-048.0 870 1106 12.23% 35.11% 52.65%-0.69 +36.0 7
1988-12-03 @ Zurrieq L 0-148.0 1106 870 52.65% 35.11% 12.23%+0.69 -36.0 12
1988-12-04 Hibernians D 1-150.7 1138 852 61.92% 32.71% 5.37%+1.09 -9.4 11
1988-12-04 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-150.7 852 1138 5.37% 32.71% 61.92%-1.09 +9.4 6
1988-12-04 Floriana W 2-039.1 934 991 30.74% 36.81% 32.45%-0.08 +46.5 11
1988-12-04 @ Valletta L 0-239.1 991 934 32.45% 36.81% 30.74%+0.08 -46.5 9
1988-12-17 Birkirkara D 1-150.2 945 727 58.11% 34.22% 7.67%+0.86 -8.1 10
1988-12-17 @ Floriana D 1-150.2 727 945 7.67% 34.22% 58.11%-0.86 +8.1 3
1988-12-17 Hibernians W 2-142.5 981 861 51.14% 35.83% 13.04%+0.53 +12.5 13
1988-12-17 @ Valletta L 1-242.5 861 981 13.04% 35.83% 51.14%-0.53 -12.5 6
1988-12-18 Zurrieq W 2-030.8 1129 906 58.44% 34.11% 7.45%+0.88 +15.7 13
1988-12-18 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-230.8 906 1129 7.45% 34.11% 58.44%-0.88 -15.7 7
1988-12-18 Rabat Ajax D 3-359.7 1070 879 56.43% 34.72% 8.85%+0.77 -4.7 13
1988-12-18 @ Sliema Wanderers D 3-359.7 879 1070 8.85% 34.72% 56.43%-0.77 +4.7 7
1989-01-07 Naxxar Lions W 2-045.3 735 1003 10.33% 34.56% 55.11%-0.80 +71.0 5
1989-01-07 @ Birkirkara L 0-245.3 1003 735 55.11% 34.56% 10.33%+0.80 -71.0 8
1989-01-07 Floriana D 1-149.5 849 937 26.52% 36.71% 36.77%-0.19 +1.3 7
1989-01-07 @ Hibernians D 1-149.5 937 849 36.77% 36.71% 26.52%+0.19 -1.3 11
1989-01-07 Hamrun Spartans L 2-346.5 884 1144 10.71% 34.68% 54.60%-0.78 -10.0 7
1989-01-07 @ Rabat Ajax W 3-246.5 1144 884 54.60% 34.68% 10.71%+0.78 +10.0 15
1989-01-08 Valletta L 0-435.5 890 993 24.61% 36.63% 38.77%-0.24 -73.7 7
1989-01-08 @ Zurrieq W 4-035.5 993 890 38.77% 36.63% 24.61%+0.24 +73.7 15
1989-01-14 Hibernians D 2-255.6 806 850 32.63% 36.83% 30.54%-0.03 -0.2 6
1989-01-14 @ Birkirkara D 2-255.6 850 806 30.54% 36.83% 32.63%+0.03 +0.2 8
1989-01-14 Sliema Wanderers D 1-149.6 932 1065 21.17% 36.41% 42.42%-0.34 +2.9 9
1989-01-14 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-149.6 1065 932 42.42% 36.41% 21.17%+0.34 -2.9 14
1989-01-15 Valletta L 0-432.5 874 1067 15.38% 35.75% 48.87%-0.55 -53.0 7
1989-01-15 @ Rabat Ajax W 4-032.5 1067 874 48.87% 35.75% 15.38%+0.55 +53.0 17
1989-01-15 Floriana L 0-139.4 816 935 22.74% 36.52% 40.73%-0.29 -19.5 7
1989-01-15 @ Zurrieq W 1-039.4 935 816 40.73% 36.52% 22.74%+0.29 +19.5 13
1989-01-28 Sliema Wanderers L 0-330.7 806 1062 11.00% 34.77% 54.23%-0.76 -31.2 6
1989-01-28 @ Birkirkara W 3-030.7 1062 806 54.23% 34.77% 11.00%+0.76 +31.2 16
1989-01-28 Hamrun Spartans L 0-233.0 935 1154 13.38% 35.38% 51.24%-0.63 -25.1 9
1989-01-28 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-033.0 1154 935 51.24% 35.38% 13.38%+0.63 +25.1 17
1989-01-29 Rabat Ajax W 3-247.2 955 821 52.32% 35.63% 12.04%+0.57 +11.1 15
1989-01-29 @ Floriana L 2-347.2 821 955 12.04% 35.63% 52.32%-0.57 -11.1 7
1989-01-29 Zurrieq L 0-242.7 850 797 44.76% 36.51% 18.74%+0.30 -59.0 8
1989-01-29 @ Hibernians W 2-042.7 797 850 18.74% 36.51% 44.76%-0.30 +59.0 9
1989-02-04 Sliema Wanderers L 0-147.0 1179 1093 48.09% 36.22% 15.69%+0.41 -33.3 17
1989-02-04 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-047.0 1093 1179 15.69% 36.22% 48.09%-0.41 +33.3 18
1989-02-04 Naxxar Lions W 2-031.1 1120 910 57.67% 34.36% 7.97%+0.83 +16.6 19
1989-02-04 @ Valletta L 0-231.1 910 1120 7.97% 34.36% 57.67%-0.83 -16.6 9
1989-02-18 Zurrieq L 0-140.9 775 856 27.47% 36.74% 35.79%-0.16 -22.2 6
1989-02-18 @ Birkirkara W 1-040.9 856 775 35.79% 36.74% 27.47%+0.16 +22.1 11
1989-02-18 Hibernians D 0-044.2 810 791 40.76% 36.72% 22.52%+0.18 -2.8 8
1989-02-18 @ Rabat Ajax D 0-044.2 791 810 22.52% 36.72% 40.76%-0.18 +2.8 9
1989-02-19 Floriana W 1-043.1 893 966 28.53% 36.77% 34.70%-0.13 +25.8 11
1989-02-19 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-143.1 966 893 34.70% 36.77% 28.53%+0.13 -25.8 15
1989-02-19 Valletta W 1-040.5 1127 1137 37.18% 36.81% 26.00%+0.08 +21.4 20
1989-02-19 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-140.5 1137 1127 26.00% 36.81% 37.18%-0.08 -21.4 19
1989-02-26 Birkirkara W 3-134.4 1146 753 66.89% 29.91% 3.20%+1.46 +5.7 19
1989-02-26 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-334.4 753 1146 3.20% 29.91% 66.89%-1.46 -5.7 6
1989-02-26 Rabat Ajax D 0-044.4 878 807 46.63% 36.36% 17.01%+0.36 -4.7 12
1989-02-26 @ Zurrieq D 0-044.4 807 878 17.01% 36.36% 46.63%-0.36 +4.7 9
1989-03-04 Sliema Wanderers L 0-136.6 940 1148 14.24% 35.55% 50.21%-0.59 -14.0 15
1989-03-04 @ Floriana W 1-036.6 1148 940 50.21% 35.55% 14.24%+0.59 +14.0 22
1989-03-04 Naxxar Lions W 2-041.7 794 919 22.05% 36.48% 41.47%-0.31 +55.3 11
1989-03-04 @ Hibernians L 0-241.7 919 794 41.47% 36.48% 22.05%+0.31 -55.3 11
1989-03-05 Rabat Ajax L 0-141.6 747 812 29.70% 36.80% 33.51%-0.10 -23.3 6
1989-03-05 @ Birkirkara W 1-041.6 812 747 33.51% 36.80% 29.70%+0.10 +23.3 11
1989-03-05 Valletta L 0-145.5 1152 1115 42.89% 36.62% 20.49%+0.24 -30.2 19
1989-03-05 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-045.5 1115 1152 20.49% 36.62% 42.89%-0.24 +30.2 21
1989-03-11 Zurrieq L 1-444.2 864 873 37.24% 36.81% 25.95%+0.08 -62.6 11
1989-03-11 @ Naxxar Lions W 4-144.2 873 864 25.95% 36.81% 37.24%-0.08 +62.6 14
1989-03-11 Hibernians W 3-135.5 1162 849 63.23% 32.06% 4.71%+1.18 +8.7 24
1989-03-11 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-335.5 849 1162 4.71% 32.06% 63.23%-1.18 -8.7 11
1989-03-12 Floriana L 1-255.3 1122 926 56.73% 34.64% 8.63%+0.78 -36.8 19
1989-03-12 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-155.3 926 1122 8.63% 34.64% 56.73%-0.78 +36.8 17
1989-03-12 Birkirkara D 0-046.5 1145 724 68.09% 29.10% 2.81%+1.56 -12.3 22
1989-03-12 @ Valletta D 0-046.5 724 1145 2.81% 29.10% 68.09%-1.56 +12.3 7
1989-03-26 Valletta D 2-255.8 963 1133 17.42% 36.04% 46.54%-0.47 +3.1 18
1989-03-26 @ Floriana D 2-255.8 1133 963 46.54% 36.04% 17.42%+0.47 -3.1 23
1989-03-26 Hamrun Spartans D 2-256.1 841 1085 11.70% 34.97% 53.32%-0.72 +4.7 12
1989-03-26 @ Hibernians D 2-256.1 1085 841 53.32% 34.97% 11.70%+0.72 -4.7 20
1989-03-26 Naxxar Lions D 1-149.5 835 801 42.57% 36.64% 20.79%+0.23 -3.0 12
1989-03-26 @ Rabat Ajax D 1-149.5 801 835 20.79% 36.64% 42.57%-0.23 +3.0 12
1989-03-26 Zurrieq W 3-245.1 1171 936 59.14% 33.86% 7.00%+0.92 +7.0 26
1989-03-26 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-345.1 936 1171 7.00% 33.86% 59.14%-0.92 -7.0 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1989-03-12 8.63% Floriana 926 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1122 1
2 1988-11-20 9.78% @ Valletta 902 1 Hamrun Spartans 1180 0
3 1989-01-07 10.33% @ Birkirkara 735 2 Naxxar Lions 1003 0
4 1988-12-03 12.23% @ Zurrieq 870 1 Sliema Wanderers 1106 0
5 1989-02-04 15.69% Sliema Wanderers 1093 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1179 0
6 1989-01-29 18.74% Zurrieq 797 2 @ Hibernians 850 0
7 1989-03-05 20.49% Valletta 1115 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1152 0
8 1988-08-28 21.96% Sliema Wanderers 968 5 @ Rabat Ajax 991 1
9 1989-03-04 22.05% @ Hibernians 794 2 Naxxar Lions 919 0
10 1988-08-27 22.83% Valletta 870 2 @ Hibernians 886 1
11 1989-03-11 25.95% Zurrieq 873 4 @ Naxxar Lions 864 1
12 1988-08-28 26.89% Hamrun Spartans 1013 4 @ Zurrieq 996 0
13 1988-08-27 28.10% Floriana 881 3 @ Birkirkara 855 0
14 1989-02-19 28.53% @ Naxxar Lions 893 1 Floriana 966 0
15 1988-12-04 30.74% @ Valletta 934 2 Floriana 991 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-08-28 95.13 Hamrun Spartans 4 1013 26.89% @ Zurrieq 0 996 36.28% 36.82%
2 1988-08-28 87.43 Sliema Wanderers 5 968 21.96% @ Rabat Ajax 1 991 41.35% 36.69%
3 1989-01-08 73.71 Valletta 4 993 38.77% @ Zurrieq 0 890 24.61% 36.63%
4 1988-08-27 71.11 Floriana 3 881 28.10% @ Birkirkara 0 855 35.07% 36.83%
5 1989-01-07 70.99 @ Birkirkara 2 735 10.33% Naxxar Lions 0 1003 55.11% 34.56%
6 1989-03-11 62.57 Zurrieq 4 873 25.95% @ Naxxar Lions 1 864 37.24% 36.81%
7 1989-01-29 59.00 Zurrieq 2 797 18.74% @ Hibernians 0 850 44.76% 36.51%
8 1989-03-04 55.30 @ Hibernians 2 794 22.05% Naxxar Lions 0 919 41.47% 36.48%
9 1989-01-15 52.98 Valletta 4 1067 48.87% @ Rabat Ajax 0 874 15.38% 35.75%
10 1988-12-04 46.48 @ Valletta 2 934 30.74% Floriana 0 991 32.45% 36.81%
11 1988-09-18 41.33 @ Floriana 3 967 48.18% Zurrieq 0 880 15.61% 36.21%
12 1988-11-20 38.14 @ Valletta 1 902 9.78% Hamrun Spartans 0 1180 55.86% 34.36%
13 1989-03-12 36.78 Floriana 2 926 8.63% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1122 56.73% 34.64%
14 1988-09-27 36.63 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1133 50.87% Naxxar Lions 0 1016 13.26% 35.87%
15 1988-12-03 36.05 @ Zurrieq 1 870 12.23% Sliema Wanderers 0 1106 52.65% 35.11%
16 1989-02-04 33.32 Sliema Wanderers 1 1093 15.69% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1179 48.09% 36.22%
17 1989-01-28 31.19 Sliema Wanderers 3 1062 54.23% @ Birkirkara 0 806 11.00% 34.77%
18 1989-03-05 30.20 Valletta 1 1115 20.49% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1152 42.89% 36.62%
19 1988-08-27 27.17 Valletta 2 870 22.83% @ Hibernians 1 886 40.44% 36.73%
20 1988-10-23 26.74 @ Zurrieq 3 837 46.10% Birkirkara 1 771 17.50% 36.41%
21 1989-02-19 25.77 @ Naxxar Lions 1 893 28.53% Floriana 0 966 34.70% 36.77%
22 1989-01-28 25.12 Hamrun Spartans 2 1154 51.24% @ Naxxar Lions 0 935 13.38% 35.38%
23 1988-09-03 24.84 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1108 57.30% Rabat Ajax 0 903 8.23% 34.47%
24 1989-03-05 23.30 Rabat Ajax 1 812 33.51% @ Birkirkara 0 747 29.70% 36.80%
25 1989-02-18 22.15 Zurrieq 1 856 35.79% @ Birkirkara 0 775 27.47% 36.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-12-18 59.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1070 56.43% Rabat Ajax 3 879 8.85% 34.72%
2 1988-11-26 56.2 @ Hibernians 2 847 10.52% Sliema Wanderers 2 1111 54.86% 34.62%
3 1989-03-26 56.1 @ Hibernians 2 841 11.70% Hamrun Spartans 2 1085 53.32% 34.97%
4 1989-03-26 55.8 @ Floriana 2 963 17.42% Valletta 2 1133 46.54% 36.04%
5 1988-10-01 55.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1078 26.16% Hamrun Spartans 2 1169 37.15% 36.70%
6 1989-01-14 55.6 @ Birkirkara 2 806 32.63% Hibernians 2 850 30.54% 36.83%
7 1989-03-12 55.3 Floriana 2 926 8.63% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1122 56.73% 34.64%
8 1988-08-27 51.0 Valletta 2 870 22.83% @ Hibernians 1 886 40.44% 36.73%
9 1988-12-04 50.7 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1138 61.92% Hibernians 1 852 5.37% 32.71%
10 1988-09-03 50.5 @ Naxxar Lions 1 1043 60.50% Birkirkara 1 784 6.17% 33.34%
11 1988-12-17 50.2 @ Floriana 1 945 58.11% Birkirkara 1 727 7.67% 34.22%
12 1988-11-27 49.9 @ Birkirkara 1 722 13.46% Valletta 1 940 51.15% 35.39%
13 1988-10-02 49.6 @ Naxxar Lions 1 979 45.93% Valletta 1 915 17.65% 36.42%
14 1988-11-27 49.6 @ Floriana 1 988 18.98% Hamrun Spartans 1 1142 44.81% 36.22%
15 1989-01-14 49.6 @ Naxxar Lions 1 932 21.17% Sliema Wanderers 1 1065 42.42% 36.41%
16 1988-09-18 49.5 @ Valletta 1 918 43.22% Rabat Ajax 1 879 20.18% 36.60%
17 1988-10-01 49.5 @ Rabat Ajax 1 882 21.92% Floriana 1 1008 41.61% 36.47%
18 1988-10-30 49.5 @ Floriana 1 1005 42.15% Naxxar Lions 1 975 21.19% 36.66%
19 1989-01-07 49.5 @ Hibernians 1 849 26.52% Floriana 1 937 36.77% 36.71%
20 1989-03-26 49.5 @ Rabat Ajax 1 835 42.57% Naxxar Lions 1 801 20.79% 36.64%
21 1988-10-02 49.4 @ Zurrieq 1 838 35.63% Hibernians 1 860 27.54% 36.83%
22 1988-11-20 48.7 @ Valletta 1 902 9.78% Hamrun Spartans 0 1180 55.86% 34.36%
23 1988-12-03 48.0 @ Zurrieq 1 870 12.23% Sliema Wanderers 0 1106 52.65% 35.11%
24 1989-01-29 47.2 @ Floriana 3 955 52.32% Rabat Ajax 2 821 12.04% 35.63%
25 1989-02-04 47.0 Sliema Wanderers 1 1093 15.69% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1179 48.09% 36.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-09-03 29.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1108 57.30% Rabat Ajax 0 903 8.23% 34.47%
2 1989-01-28 30.7 Sliema Wanderers 3 1062 54.23% @ Birkirkara 0 806 11.00% 34.77%
3 1988-12-18 30.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1129 58.44% Zurrieq 0 906 7.45% 34.11%
4 1989-02-04 31.1 @ Valletta 2 1120 57.67% Naxxar Lions 0 910 7.97% 34.36%
5 1988-09-27 31.7 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1133 50.87% Naxxar Lions 0 1016 13.26% 35.87%
6 1988-09-18 32.5 @ Floriana 3 967 48.18% Zurrieq 0 880 15.61% 36.21%
7 1989-01-15 32.5 Valletta 4 1067 48.87% @ Rabat Ajax 0 874 15.38% 35.75%
8 1988-11-06 32.6 Hamrun Spartans 4 1168 64.39% @ Birkirkara 1 744 4.67% 30.94%
9 1989-01-28 33.0 Hamrun Spartans 2 1154 51.24% @ Naxxar Lions 0 935 13.38% 35.38%
10 1989-02-26 34.4 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1146 66.89% Birkirkara 1 753 3.20% 29.91%
11 1989-01-08 35.5 Valletta 4 993 38.77% @ Zurrieq 0 890 24.61% 36.63%
12 1989-03-11 35.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1162 63.23% Hibernians 1 849 4.71% 32.06%
13 1988-11-19 36.3 @ Naxxar Lions 1 978 50.99% Hibernians 0 860 13.16% 35.85%
14 1989-03-04 36.6 Sliema Wanderers 1 1148 50.21% @ Floriana 0 940 14.24% 35.55%
15 1988-12-03 36.9 @ Naxxar Lions 1 988 48.92% Rabat Ajax 0 894 14.96% 36.12%
16 1988-09-11 37.0 @ Floriana 1 952 48.79% Hibernians 0 858 15.07% 36.14%
17 1988-11-19 37.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1096 48.82% Floriana 0 1002 15.04% 36.14%
18 1988-10-30 38.0 Sliema Wanderers 1 1079 45.53% @ Valletta 0 919 18.33% 36.15%
19 1988-08-27 38.5 Floriana 3 881 28.10% @ Birkirkara 0 855 35.07% 36.83%
20 1988-08-28 39.1 Hamrun Spartans 4 1013 26.89% @ Zurrieq 0 996 36.28% 36.82%
21 1988-12-04 39.1 @ Valletta 2 934 30.74% Floriana 0 991 32.45% 36.81%
22 1989-01-15 39.4 Floriana 1 935 40.73% @ Zurrieq 0 816 22.74% 36.52%
23 1988-09-11 40.2 @ Valletta 1 897 38.03% Zurrieq 0 901 25.17% 36.80%
24 1989-02-19 40.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1127 37.18% Valletta 0 1137 26.00% 36.81%
25 1988-10-23 40.7 @ Zurrieq 3 837 46.10% Birkirkara 1 771 17.50% 36.41%