1989-90 Maltese Premier League Season

72 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Valletta

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hibernians

4.36 points above expected

23 points · 18.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zebbug Rangers

3.61 points below expected

3 points · 6.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valletta*	16	13	2	1	26	31	6	+25	22.84	+3.16
2	Sliema Wanderers	16	11	2	3	24	36	11	+25	22.77	+1.23
3	Hamrun Spartans	16	10	3	3	23	37	13	+24	20.95	+2.05
4	Hibernians	16	10	3	3	23	30	12	+18	18.64	+4.36
5	Floriana	16	8	1	7	17	24	17	+7	18.28	-1.28
6	Naxxar Lions	16	2	7	7	11	17	27	-10	12.48	-1.48
7	Zurrieq	16	3	5	8	11	15	30	-15	12.61	-1.61
8	Tarxien Rainbows	16	1	2	13	4	9	40	-31	6.82	-2.82
9	Zebbug Rangers	16	1	1	14	3	6	49	-43	6.61	-3.61

* Point deductions: Valletta (-2 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hibernians	23	18.64	+4.36
2	Valletta	26	22.84	+3.16
3	Hamrun Spartans	23	20.95	+2.05
4	Sliema Wanderers	24	22.77	+1.23
5	Floriana	17	18.28	-1.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Zebbug Rangers	3	6.61	-3.61
2	Tarxien Rainbows	4	6.82	-2.82
3	Zurrieq	11	12.61	-1.61
4	Naxxar Lions	11	12.48	-1.48
5	Floriana	17	18.28	-1.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hibernians	6	Dec 5 – Feb 17	1 in 25
2	Valletta	6	Dec 8 – Feb 17	1 in 10
3	Sliema Wanderers	7	Oct 1 – Dec 23	1 in 8
4	Hamrun Spartans	4	Oct 28 – Dec 5	1 in 4
5	Zebbug Rangers	1	Jan 28 – Jan 28	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tarxien Rainbows	12	Nov 4 – Mar 18	1 in 55
2	Zebbug Rangers	9	Oct 1 – Jan 21	1 in 17
3	Zurrieq	4	Dec 30 – Feb 17	1 in 7
4	Naxxar Lions	2	Jan 28 – Feb 18	1 in 4
5	Floriana	2	Dec 17 – Dec 23	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hibernians	11	Nov 25 – Mar 25	1 in 9
2	Valletta	15	Sep 5 – Mar 18	1 in 8
3	Zurrieq	4	Nov 5 – Dec 15	1 in 5
4	Zebbug Rangers	1	Sep 9 – Sep 9	1 in 3
5	Hamrun Spartans	6	Sep 3 – Dec 5	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Naxxar Lions	8	Sep 9 – Dec 16	1 in 15
2	Sliema Wanderers	2	Feb 17 – Mar 3	1 in 6
3	Hamrun Spartans	2	Sep 3 – Sep 30	1 in 6
4	Hibernians	5	Sep 17 – Nov 25	1 in 4
5	Tarxien Rainbows	13	Nov 4 – Mar 25	1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Valletta	1472	28	-46	7	7.1	-0.1
Sliema Wanderers	1512	24	+25	6	6.1	-0.1
Hibernians	1460	23	+131	9	7.3	+1.7
Hamrun Spartans	1495	23	+121	9	7.4	+1.6
Floriana	1069	17	-81	6	6.8	-0.8
Zurrieq	885	11	+42	4	3.6	+0.4
Naxxar Lions	922	11	-34	2	2.7	-0.7
Tarxien Rainbows	514	4	-8	1	1.3	-0.3
Zebbug Rangers	530	3	+15	2	2.7	-0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FLO	HS	HIB	NL	SW	TR	VAL	ZR	ZUR
Floriana	—	0-0-2 2.00	1-0-1 2.92	1-1-0 4.24	0-0-2 1.55	2-0-0 5.04	0-0-2 1.72	2-0-0 5.02	2-0-0 3.20
Hamrun Spartans	2-0-0 3.62	—	0-1-1 3.51	2-0-0 3.60	0-1-1 2.82	2-0-0 5.07	1-0-1 2.19	2-0-0 5.23	1-1-0 3.59
Hibernians	1-0-1 2.70	1-1-0 2.11	—	2-0-0 4.75	1-0-1 1.76	2-0-0 4.41	0-1-1 1.88	2-0-0 5.10	1-1-0 4.52
Naxxar Lions	0-1-1 1.38	0-0-2 2.03	0-0-2 0.88	—	0-1-1 0.77	1-1-0 4.03	0-1-1 0.76	1-1-0 4.37	0-2-0 2.99
Sliema Wanderers	2-0-0 4.07	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 3.87	1-1-0 4.86	—	2-0-0 5.00	0-0-2 1.62	2-0-0 5.14	2-0-0 4.78
Tarxien Rainbows	0-0-2 0.59	0-0-2 0.57	0-0-2 1.21	0-1-1 1.59	0-0-2 0.64	—	0-0-2 0.41	1-0-1 3.19	0-1-1 1.12
Valletta	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 3.43	1-1-0 3.75	1-1-0 4.88	2-0-0 4.00	2-0-0 5.23	—	2-0-0 5.19	2-0-0 5.10
Zebbug Rangers	0-0-2 0.61	0-0-2 0.41	0-0-2 0.53	0-1-1 1.25	0-0-2 0.50	1-0-1 2.43	0-0-2 0.45	—	0-0-2 1.90
Zurrieq	0-0-2 2.42	0-1-1 2.04	0-1-1 1.10	0-2-0 2.63	0-0-2 0.85	1-1-0 4.50	0-0-2 0.53	2-0-0 3.73	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.94	+7.4
Allowed	0.96	-5.9
Differential	0.98	+3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.94%	8.33%	6.25%	2.78%	3.47%	4.86%	32.64%
1	8.33%	9.72%	6.94%	5.56%	0.69%	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	6.94%	1.39%	1.39%	0.69%	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	5.56%	1.39%	—	—	—	9.72%
4	3.47%	0.69%	0.69%	—	—	—	4.86%
5+	4.86%	—	—	—	—	—	4.86%
Total	32.64%	31.25%	16.67%	9.72%	4.86%	4.86%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.42	+0.00
SD	1.59	1.59	2.63
CV	1.12	1.12	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
2	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
3	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.06	+0.44
SD	1.15	1.12	1.93
CV	0.77	1.06	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
3	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	37.50%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.31	0.81	+1.50
SD	2.44	0.75	2.68
CV	1.06	0.92	—
Max	10	2	+10
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
3	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	56.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.88	0.75	+1.12
SD	1.96	1.00	2.31
CV	1.05	1.33	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
1	—	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
2	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
3	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.69	-0.62
SD	1.00	1.54	2.06
CV	0.94	0.91	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
1	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
2	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
3	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
4	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	31.25%	68.75%	—	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.69	+1.56
SD	1.69	0.48	2.03
CV	0.75	0.70	—
Max	5	1	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	12.50%	62.50%
1	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
2	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.56	2.50	-1.94
SD	0.81	1.51	1.77
CV	1.45	0.60	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
1	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	50.00%
2	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
3	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
4	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	68.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	0.38	+1.56
SD	1.53	0.62	1.71
CV	0.79	1.65	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	68.75%
1	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.38	3.06	-2.69
SD	0.62	2.54	2.89
CV	1.65	0.83	—
Max	2	10	+2
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%
1	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
2	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.88	-0.94
SD	1.12	1.54	2.17
CV	1.20	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Hibernians	1552	23	18.64	+4.36	97.0%	11	13	16	19	20	23	25
Sliema Wanderers	1512	24	22.77	+1.23	72.0%	16	18	21	23	25	27	30
Valletta	1472	26	22.84	+3.16	96.0%	15	18	21	23	25	26	28
Hamrun Spartans	1404	23	20.95	+2.05	75.0%	10	15	18	21	23	26	28
Floriana	1069	17	18.28	-1.28	43.0%	12	14	16	18	21	23	27
Naxxar Lions	922	11	12.48	-1.48	36.0%	5	8	10	13	14	17	24
Zurrieq	885	11	12.61	-1.61	38.0%	5	8	11	12	14	17	22
Zebbug Rangers	530	3	6.61	-3.61	9.0%	2	3	5	6	8	11	14
Tarxien Rainbows	514	4	6.82	-2.82	17.0%	1	3	5	7	9	10	12

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+29.17%

Strong Edge

55.56%18.06%26.39%

Elo Value

Home Edge

202 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0104.37600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.88 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.52+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.3

Open

12349

Champion Preseason Odds

34%

Valletta, 2nd of 9

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.12/gm

Tight Race

00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.25 * Some Luck: 2.25 to 3.38 * Lucky: 3.38 to 4.5 * Wild Swing: 4.5 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.7 * Close: 0.7 to 1.06 * Off: 1.06 to 1.41 * Way Off: 1.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.63 points

Some Luck

02.817

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.22

Pinpoint

00.882

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 94.44%

97.00%

Hibernians

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

9.00%

Zebbug Rangers

05.56%50

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 9

Minimal Outliers

00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.

Gini Index

0.29

Lopsided

00.20.270.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 409.39

2.44

Wide Separation

0.951.6522.253

Interquartile Edge

97%

Wide Edge

50%72.5%79%84%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 100%

100%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

51%

Some Drama

0%43%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.35

Highly Predictable

00.462

Matchup Imbalance

0.66

Lopsided

00.420.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.88

Near-Lock

00.570.741

Upset Rate

Expected

Chalky

0%14%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

Solid Favorites

0%10%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.25

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

3.99

Very Underconfident

01.004.88932

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.112

Well Within Noise

00.1510.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Hibernians 1

Hamrun Spartans 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Valletta	34.00%	34.00%	18.00%	8.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Sliema Wanderers	37.00%	29.00%	20.00%	9.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—
Hamrun Spartans	22.00%	24.00%	19.00%	21.00%	11.00%	3.00%	—	—	—
Hibernians	2.00%	8.00%	23.00%	33.00%	28.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—	—
Floriana	5.00%	3.00%	19.00%	26.00%	33.00%	12.00%	2.00%	—	—
Naxxar Lions	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	7.00%	42.00%	34.00%	11.00%	4.00%
Zurrieq	—	1.00%	—	3.00%	11.00%	38.00%	42.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Tarxien Rainbows	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%	54.00%	36.00%
Zebbug Rangers	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%	32.00%	58.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Floriana	100%	—
Hamrun Spartans	100%	—
Hibernians	100%	—
Sliema Wanderers	100%	—
Valletta	100%	—
Zurrieq	95.00%	5.00%
Naxxar Lions	85.00%	15.00%
Tarxien Rainbows	10.00%	90.00%
Zebbug Rangers	10.00%	90.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1989-09-03	Tarxien Rainbows	W 1-0	31.4	1071	839	74.91%	18.70%	6.40%	+1.67	+16.1	2
1989-09-03	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	31.4	839	1071	6.40%	18.70%	74.91%	-1.67	-16.1	0
1989-09-03	Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	54.4	1116	1219	47.94%	18.89%	33.17%	+0.01	-6.5	1
1989-09-03	@ Zurrieq	D 1-1	54.4	1219	1116	33.17%	18.89%	47.94%	-0.01	+6.5	1
1989-09-05	Zebbug Rangers	W 2-1	35.6	1277	914	78.39%	18.52%	3.09%	+2.32	+7.5	2
1989-09-05	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	35.6	914	1277	3.09%	18.52%	78.39%	-2.32	-7.5	0
1989-09-05	Floriana	W 1-0	33.5	1252	1145	68.74%	18.81%	12.45%	+1.05	+30.0	2
1989-09-05	@ Valletta	L 0-1	33.5	1145	1252	12.45%	18.81%	68.74%	-1.05	-30.0	0
1989-09-09	Zurrieq	W 3-1	39.6	1115	1109	60.57%	18.87%	20.57%	+0.55	+76.7	2
1989-09-09	@ Floriana	L 1-3	39.6	1109	1115	20.57%	18.87%	60.57%	-0.55	-76.7	1
1989-09-09	Zebbug Rangers	D 1-1	54.3	1027	906	69.61%	18.80%	11.59%	+1.12	-28.5	1
1989-09-09	@ Naxxar Lions	D 1-1	54.3	906	1027	11.59%	18.80%	69.61%	-1.12	+28.5	1
1989-09-17	Hibernians	W 2-0	31.8	1192	1087	68.57%	18.82%	12.62%	+1.03	+57.2	4
1989-09-17	@ Floriana	L 0-2	31.8	1087	1192	12.62%	18.82%	68.57%	-1.03	-57.2	2
1989-09-17	Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	36.7	1282	1284	59.72%	18.87%	21.40%	+0.50	+48.6	4
1989-09-17	@ Valletta	L 0-1	36.7	1284	1282	21.40%	18.87%	59.72%	-0.50	-48.6	2
1989-09-30	Hibernians	D 0-0	50.1	1226	1030	73.47%	18.74%	7.79%	+1.49	-36.9	2
1989-09-30	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 0-0	50.1	1030	1226	7.79%	18.74%	73.47%	-1.49	+36.9	3
1989-09-30	Naxxar Lions	D 0-0	49.9	823	998	37.96%	18.88%	43.16%	-0.35	+2.5	1
1989-09-30	@ Tarxien Rainbows	D 0-0	49.9	998	823	43.16%	18.88%	37.96%	+0.35	-2.5	2
1989-10-01	Zurrieq	W 5-0	27.9	1236	1032	73.81%	18.73%	7.46%	+1.53	+82.1	4
1989-10-01	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-5	27.9	1032	1236	7.46%	18.73%	73.81%	-1.53	-82.1	1
1989-10-01	Zebbug Rangers	W 5-0	26.4	1330	935	78.95%	18.47%	2.58%	+2.48	+29.3	6
1989-10-01	@ Valletta	L 0-5	26.4	935	1330	2.58%	18.47%	78.95%	-2.48	-29.3	1
1989-10-28	Naxxar Lions	W 3-2	42.1	1189	996	73.37%	18.74%	7.89%	+1.48	+17.6	4
1989-10-28	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 2-3	42.1	996	1189	7.89%	18.74%	73.37%	-1.48	-17.6	2
1989-10-28	Zebbug Rangers	W 2-0	36.9	826	905	51.04%	18.89%	30.07%	+0.12	+122.7	3
1989-10-28	@ Tarxien Rainbows	L 0-2	36.9	905	826	30.07%	18.89%	51.04%	-0.12	-122.7	1
1989-10-29	Hibernians	W 3-1	35.3	1318	1067	75.56%	18.68%	5.76%	+1.76	+23.8	6
1989-10-29	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-3	35.3	1067	1318	5.76%	18.68%	75.56%	-1.76	-23.8	3
1989-10-29	Zurrieq	W 4-0	26.6	1360	950	79.17%	18.45%	2.39%	+2.55	+22.1	8
1989-10-29	@ Valletta	L 0-4	26.6	950	1360	2.39%	18.45%	79.17%	-2.55	-22.1	1
1989-11-04	Tarxien Rainbows	W 3-0	28.3	1206	949	75.78%	18.67%	5.55%	+1.80	+38.5	6
1989-11-04	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-3	28.3	949	1206	5.55%	18.67%	75.78%	-1.80	-38.5	3
1989-11-04	Floriana	D 1-1	54.3	978	1249	25.66%	18.84%	55.50%	-0.83	+13.6	3
1989-11-04	@ Naxxar Lions	D 1-1	54.3	1249	978	55.50%	18.84%	25.66%	+0.83	-13.6	5
1989-11-05	Hibernians	W 2-1	36.0	1382	1043	77.89%	18.56%	3.55%	+2.20	+8.6	10
1989-11-05	@ Valletta	L 1-2	36.0	1043	1382	3.55%	18.56%	77.89%	-2.20	-8.6	3
1989-11-05	Zebbug Rangers	W 2-0	30.9	928	783	71.06%	18.78%	10.16%	+1.24	+46.9	3
1989-11-05	@ Zurrieq	L 0-2	30.9	783	928	10.16%	18.78%	71.06%	-1.24	-46.9	1
1989-11-19	Tarxien Rainbows	W 2-0	29.0	1235	910	77.60%	18.58%	3.83%	+2.13	+18.5	7
1989-11-19	@ Floriana	L 0-2	29.0	910	1235	3.83%	18.58%	77.60%	-2.13	-18.5	3
1989-11-19	Naxxar Lions	W 4-0	27.0	1342	992	78.13%	18.54%	3.33%	+2.25	+30.6	8
1989-11-19	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-4	27.0	992	1342	3.33%	18.54%	78.13%	-2.25	-30.6	3
1989-11-25	Zebbug Rangers	W 10-0	25.9	1245	736	80.38%	18.26%	1.36%	+3.04	+30.1	8
1989-11-25	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-10	25.9	736	1245	1.36%	18.26%	80.38%	-3.04	-30.1	1
1989-11-25	Zurrieq	D 0-0	50.0	1035	975	65.33%	18.84%	15.83%	+0.81	-26.6	4
1989-11-25	@ Hibernians	D 0-0	50.0	975	1035	15.83%	18.84%	65.33%	-0.81	+26.6	4
1989-11-26	Valletta	D 1-1	54.5	961	1390	11.89%	18.71%	69.40%	-1.61	+28.2	4
1989-11-26	@ Naxxar Lions	D 1-1	54.5	1390	961	69.40%	18.71%	11.89%	+1.61	-28.2	11
1989-11-26	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	37.5	892	1372	9.07%	18.65%	72.28%	-1.87	-21.0	3
1989-11-26	@ Tarxien Rainbows	W 2-1	37.5	1372	892	72.28%	18.65%	9.07%	+1.87	+21.0	10
1989-12-05	Floriana	W 1-0	35.9	1275	1254	62.03%	18.86%	19.10%	+0.62	+44.0	10
1989-12-05	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-1	35.9	1254	1275	19.10%	18.86%	62.03%	-0.62	-44.0	7
1989-12-05	Zebbug Rangers	W 7-0	26.8	1008	706	77.06%	18.61%	4.33%	+2.02	+67.1	6
1989-12-05	@ Hibernians	L 0-7	26.8	706	1008	4.33%	18.61%	77.06%	-2.02	-67.1	1
1989-12-08	Tarxien Rainbows	W 3-1	33.7	1362	871	80.20%	18.30%	1.50%	+2.96	+6.4	13
1989-12-08	@ Valletta	L 1-3	33.7	871	1362	1.50%	18.30%	80.20%	-2.96	-6.4	3
1989-12-08	Naxxar Lions	D 0-0	50.0	1002	989	61.21%	18.87%	19.93%	+0.58	-21.7	5
1989-12-08	@ Zurrieq	D 0-0	50.0	989	1002	19.93%	18.87%	61.21%	-0.58	+21.7	5
1989-12-10	Zebbug Rangers	W 3-0	26.7	1210	638	80.91%	18.13%	0.96%	+3.35	+6.8	9
1989-12-10	@ Floriana	L 0-3	26.7	638	1210	0.96%	18.13%	80.91%	-3.35	-6.8	1
1989-12-10	Hamrun Spartans	W 2-1	41.2	1393	1319	66.48%	18.83%	14.68%	+0.89	+32.8	12
1989-12-10	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	41.2	1319	1393	14.68%	18.83%	66.48%	-0.89	-32.8	10
1989-12-15	Tarxien Rainbows	W 4-1	35.2	980	864	69.31%	18.81%	11.88%	+1.09	+66.3	7
1989-12-15	@ Zurrieq	L 1-4	35.2	864	980	11.88%	18.81%	69.31%	-1.09	-66.4	3
1989-12-16	Naxxar Lions	W 3-2	44.4	1075	1011	65.69%	18.84%	15.47%	+0.84	+32.6	8
1989-12-16	@ Hibernians	L 2-3	44.4	1011	1075	15.47%	18.84%	65.69%	-0.84	-32.6	5
1989-12-17	Floriana	W 3-1	36.8	1426	1216	74.07%	18.72%	7.21%	+1.56	+29.4	14
1989-12-17	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-3	36.8	1216	1426	7.21%	18.72%	74.07%	-1.56	-29.4	9
1989-12-17	Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	35.2	1369	1286	67.07%	18.83%	14.10%	+0.93	+33.6	15
1989-12-17	@ Valletta	L 0-1	35.2	1286	1369	14.10%	18.83%	67.07%	-0.93	-33.6	10
1989-12-23	Valletta	L 0-1	40.2	1187	1402	32.48%	18.87%	48.65%	-0.55	-69.4	9
1989-12-23	@ Floriana	W 1-0	40.2	1402	1187	48.65%	18.87%	32.48%	+0.55	+69.4	17
1989-12-23	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	29.7	632	1456	1.36%	18.03%	80.61%	-3.57	-3.5	1
1989-12-23	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 1-0	29.7	1456	632	80.61%	18.03%	1.36%	+3.57	+3.5	16
1989-12-30	Zurrieq	W 2-0	30.2	1252	1046	73.92%	18.73%	7.36%	+1.54	+34.6	12
1989-12-30	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-2	30.2	1046	1252	7.36%	18.73%	73.92%	-1.54	-34.6	7
1989-12-30	Hibernians	L 0-2	34.3	798	1108	21.47%	18.82%	59.72%	-1.02	-91.9	3
1989-12-30	@ Tarxien Rainbows	W 2-0	34.3	1108	798	59.72%	18.82%	21.47%	+1.02	+91.9	10
1990-01-07	Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	43.0	1471	1459	61.20%	18.87%	19.93%	+0.58	+45.7	19
1990-01-07	@ Valletta	L 0-1	43.0	1459	1471	19.93%	18.87%	61.20%	-0.58	-45.7	16
1990-01-07	Naxxar Lions	L 0-3	32.0	628	978	17.71%	18.79%	63.50%	-1.22	-112.6	1
1990-01-07	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 3-0	32.0	978	628	63.50%	18.79%	17.71%	+1.22	+112.6	7
1990-01-20	Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	39.3	1200	1287	50.01%	18.89%	31.10%	+0.08	+66.9	12
1990-01-20	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	39.3	1287	1200	31.10%	18.89%	50.01%	-0.08	-66.9	12
1990-01-20	Floriana	L 0-1	43.9	1012	1118	47.59%	18.89%	33.52%	-0.01	-95.3	7
1990-01-20	@ Zurrieq	W 1-0	43.9	1118	1012	33.52%	18.89%	47.59%	+0.01	+95.3	11
1990-01-21	Tarxien Rainbows	W 3-0	27.4	1091	706	78.78%	18.49%	2.74%	+2.43	+19.3	9
1990-01-21	@ Naxxar Lions	L 0-3	27.4	706	1091	2.74%	18.49%	78.78%	-2.43	-19.3	3
1990-01-21	Valletta	L 0-1	29.3	516	1517	0.50%	17.58%	81.92%	-4.45	-1.3	1
1990-01-21	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 1-0	29.3	1517	516	81.92%	17.58%	0.50%	+4.45	+1.3	21
1990-01-27	Floriana	W 3-1	38.7	1267	1213	64.85%	18.85%	16.30%	+0.78	+62.5	14
1990-01-27	@ Hibernians	L 1-3	38.7	1213	1267	16.30%	18.85%	64.85%	-0.78	-62.5	11
1990-01-27	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-4	28.5	916	1413	8.31%	18.63%	73.06%	-1.95	-73.6	7
1990-01-27	@ Zurrieq	W 4-0	28.5	1413	916	73.06%	18.63%	8.31%	+1.95	+73.6	18
1990-01-28	Hamrun Spartans	L 1-3	47.6	1110	1220	47.07%	18.89%	34.04%	-0.03	-154.1	9
1990-01-28	@ Naxxar Lions	W 3-1	47.6	1220	1110	34.04%	18.89%	47.07%	+0.03	+154.1	14
1990-01-28	Tarxien Rainbows	W 2-0	40.8	514	687	38.30%	18.88%	42.82%	-0.34	+164.2	3
1990-01-28	@ Zebbug Rangers	L 0-2	40.8	687	514	42.82%	18.88%	38.30%	+0.34	-164.2	3
1990-02-17	Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	45.8	1329	1487	40.36%	18.88%	40.76%	-0.27	+83.6	16
1990-02-17	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	45.8	1487	1329	40.76%	18.88%	40.36%	+0.27	-83.6	18
1990-02-17	Valletta	L 1-2	35.7	843	1518	3.12%	18.34%	78.54%	-2.83	-7.5	7
1990-02-17	@ Zurrieq	W 2-1	35.7	1518	843	78.54%	18.34%	3.12%	+2.83	+7.5	23
1990-02-18	Naxxar Lions	W 2-1	37.1	1150	956	73.42%	18.74%	7.84%	+1.48	+18.4	13
1990-02-18	@ Floriana	L 1-2	37.1	956	1150	7.84%	18.74%	73.42%	-1.48	-18.4	9
1990-02-18	Hamrun Spartans	L 2-4	37.4	522	1374	1.16%	17.97%	80.87%	-3.71	-4.4	3
1990-02-18	@ Tarxien Rainbows	W 4-2	37.4	1374	522	80.87%	17.97%	1.16%	+3.71	+4.4	16
1990-02-24	Valletta	D 0-0	57.7	1413	1526	46.60%	18.89%	34.51%	-0.04	-6.0	17
1990-02-24	@ Hibernians	D 0-0	57.7	1526	1413	34.51%	18.89%	46.60%	+0.04	+6.0	24
1990-02-24	Zurrieq	L 1-2	46.9	678	835	40.51%	18.88%	40.61%	-0.26	-78.4	3
1990-02-24	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 2-1	46.9	835	678	40.61%	18.88%	40.51%	+0.26	+78.4	9
1990-03-03	Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	54.5	938	1403	9.83%	18.67%	71.50%	-1.79	+30.6	10
1990-03-03	@ Naxxar Lions	D 1-1	54.5	1403	938	71.50%	18.67%	9.83%	+1.79	-30.6	19
1990-03-03	Floriana	L 0-2	28.8	518	1169	3.59%	18.39%	78.03%	-2.71	-17.2	3
1990-03-03	@ Tarxien Rainbows	W 2-0	28.8	1169	518	78.03%	18.39%	3.59%	+2.71	+17.3	15
1990-03-04	Zebbug Rangers	W 4-0	25.7	1379	600	82.09%	17.62%	0.30%	+4.38	+2.7	18
1990-03-04	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-4	25.7	600	1379	0.30%	17.62%	82.09%	-4.38	-2.7	3
1990-03-04	Hibernians	L 1-3	36.0	914	1407	8.50%	18.63%	72.87%	-1.93	-34.3	9
1990-03-04	@ Zurrieq	W 3-1	36.0	1407	914	72.87%	18.63%	8.50%	+1.93	+34.3	19
1990-03-11	Tarxien Rainbows	W 5-0	25.2	1373	501	82.48%	17.35%	0.18%	+4.84	+2.0	21
1990-03-11	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-5	25.2	501	1373	0.18%	17.35%	82.48%	-4.84	-2.0	3
1990-03-11	Naxxar Lions	W 2-0	28.5	1532	968	80.85%	18.15%	1.00%	+3.31	+4.9	26
1990-03-11	@ Valletta	L 0-2	28.5	968	1532	1.00%	18.15%	80.85%	-3.31	-4.9	10
1990-03-17	Hamrun Spartans	L 1-2	46.1	1186	1381	35.13%	18.88%	46.00%	-0.45	-69.8	15
1990-03-17	@ Floriana	W 2-1	46.1	1381	1186	46.00%	18.88%	35.13%	+0.45	+69.8	20
1990-03-17	Hibernians	L 1-2	34.9	597	1441	1.22%	17.99%	80.80%	-3.67	-2.9	3
1990-03-17	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 2-1	34.9	1441	597	80.80%	17.99%	1.22%	+3.67	+3.0	21
1990-03-18	Zurrieq	D 1-1	54.3	963	879	67.18%	18.83%	13.99%	+0.93	-25.8	11
1990-03-18	@ Naxxar Lions	D 1-1	54.3	879	963	13.99%	18.83%	67.18%	-0.93	+25.8	10
1990-03-18	Valletta	L 0-5	25.4	499	1537	0.41%	17.47%	82.12%	-4.63	-4.6	3
1990-03-18	@ Tarxien Rainbows	W 5-0	25.4	1537	499	82.12%	17.47%	0.41%	+4.63	+4.6	28
1990-03-24	Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	58.5	1451	1375	66.62%	18.83%	14.54%	+0.90	-25.2	21
1990-03-24	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	58.5	1375	1451	14.54%	18.83%	66.62%	-0.90	+25.2	22
1990-03-24	Floriana	L 0-4	28.0	594	1116	7.27%	18.59%	74.14%	-2.07	-64.8	3
1990-03-24	@ Zebbug Rangers	W 4-0	28.0	1116	594	74.14%	18.59%	7.27%	+2.07	+64.8	17
1990-03-25	Naxxar Lions	W 5-0	26.1	1444	938	80.35%	18.27%	1.39%	+3.03	+15.8	23
1990-03-25	@ Hibernians	L 0-5	26.1	938	1444	1.39%	18.27%	80.35%	-3.03	-15.8	11
1990-03-25	Zurrieq	D 2-2	59.8	494	905	13.07%	18.73%	68.20%	-1.52	+20.0	4
1990-03-25	@ Tarxien Rainbows	D 2-2	59.8	905	494	68.20%	18.73%	13.07%	+1.52	-20.0	11
1990-04-01	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-3	43.8	1181	1400	31.99%	18.87%	49.14%	-0.57	-111.9	17
1990-04-01	@ Floriana	W 3-1	43.8	1400	1181	49.14%	18.87%	31.99%	+0.57	+111.8	24
1990-04-01	Valletta	W 2-1	54.0	1426	1541	46.32%	18.89%	34.79%	-0.05	+69.2	23
1990-04-01	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-2	54.0	1541	1426	34.79%	18.89%	46.32%	+0.05	-69.2	28

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
1990-04-08	Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	51.6	1460	1495	35.56%	18.89%	45.55%	-0.18	+91.8	1-0
1990-04-08	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	51.6	1495	1460	45.55%	18.89%	35.56%	+0.18	-91.8	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1990-01-20	33.52%	Floriana	1118	1	@ Zurrieq	1012	0
2	1990-01-28	34.04%	Hamrun Spartans	1220	3	@ Naxxar Lions	1110	1
3	1990-04-08 *	35.56%	@ Hibernians	1460	1	Hamrun Spartans	1495	0
4	1990-01-28	38.30%	@ Zebbug Rangers	514	2	Tarxien Rainbows	687	0
5	1990-02-17	40.36%	@ Hibernians	1329	1	Sliema Wanderers	1487	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1990-01-28	164.17	@ Zebbug Rangers	2	514	38.30%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	687	42.82%	18.88%
2	1990-01-28	154.14	Hamrun Spartans	3	1220	34.04%	@ Naxxar Lions	1	1110	47.07%	18.89%
3	1989-10-28	122.67	@ Tarxien Rainbows	2	826	51.04%	Zebbug Rangers	0	905	30.07%	18.89%
4	1990-01-07	112.65	Naxxar Lions	3	978	63.50%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	628	17.71%	18.79%
5	1990-04-01	111.85	Sliema Wanderers	3	1400	49.14%	@ Floriana	1	1181	31.99%	18.87%
6	1990-01-20	95.32	Floriana	1	1118	33.52%	@ Zurrieq	0	1012	47.59%	18.89%
7	1989-12-30	91.87	Hibernians	2	1108	59.72%	@ Tarxien Rainbows	0	798	21.47%	18.82%
8	1990-04-08 *	91.75	@ Hibernians	1	1460	35.56%	Hamrun Spartans	0	1495	45.55%	18.89%
9	1990-02-17	83.60	@ Hibernians	1	1329	40.36%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1487	40.76%	18.88%
10	1989-10-01	82.14	@ Sliema Wanderers	5	1236	73.81%	Zurrieq	0	1032	7.46%	18.73%
11	1990-02-24	78.43	Zurrieq	2	835	40.61%	@ Zebbug Rangers	1	678	40.51%	18.88%
12	1989-09-09	76.70	@ Floriana	3	1115	60.57%	Zurrieq	1	1109	20.57%	18.87%
13	1990-01-27	73.56	Sliema Wanderers	4	1413	73.06%	@ Zurrieq	0	916	8.31%	18.63%
14	1990-03-17	69.79	Hamrun Spartans	2	1381	46.00%	@ Floriana	1	1186	35.13%	18.88%
15	1989-12-23	69.37	Valletta	1	1402	48.65%	@ Floriana	0	1187	32.48%	18.87%
16	1990-04-01	69.24	@ Hamrun Spartans	2	1426	46.32%	Valletta	1	1541	34.79%	18.89%
17	1989-12-05	67.06	@ Hibernians	7	1008	77.06%	Zebbug Rangers	0	706	4.33%	18.61%
18	1990-01-20	66.92	@ Hibernians	1	1200	50.01%	Hamrun Spartans	0	1287	31.10%	18.89%
19	1989-12-15	66.35	@ Zurrieq	4	980	69.31%	Tarxien Rainbows	1	864	11.88%	18.81%
20	1990-03-24	64.78	Floriana	4	1116	74.14%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	594	7.27%	18.59%
21	1990-01-27	62.47	@ Hibernians	3	1267	64.85%	Floriana	1	1213	16.30%	18.85%
22	1989-09-17	57.23	@ Floriana	2	1192	68.57%	Hibernians	0	1087	12.62%	18.82%
23	1989-09-17	48.64	@ Valletta	1	1282	59.72%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1284	21.40%	18.87%
24	1989-11-05	46.89	@ Zurrieq	2	928	71.06%	Zebbug Rangers	0	783	10.16%	18.78%
25	1990-01-07	45.71	@ Valletta	1	1471	61.20%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1459	19.93%	18.87%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1990-03-25	59.8	@ Tarxien Rainbows	2	494	13.07%	Zurrieq	2	905	68.20%	18.73%
2	1990-03-24	58.5	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1451	66.62%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1375	14.54%	18.83%
3	1990-02-24	57.7	@ Hibernians	0	1413	46.60%	Valletta	0	1526	34.51%	18.89%
4	1989-11-26	54.5	@ Naxxar Lions	1	961	11.89%	Valletta	1	1390	69.40%	18.71%
5	1990-03-03	54.5	@ Naxxar Lions	1	938	9.83%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1403	71.50%	18.67%
6	1989-09-03	54.4	@ Zurrieq	1	1116	47.94%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1219	33.17%	18.89%
7	1989-09-09	54.3	@ Naxxar Lions	1	1027	69.61%	Zebbug Rangers	1	906	11.59%	18.80%
8	1989-11-04	54.3	@ Naxxar Lions	1	978	25.66%	Floriana	1	1249	55.50%	18.84%
9	1990-03-18	54.3	@ Naxxar Lions	1	963	67.18%	Zurrieq	1	879	13.99%	18.83%
10	1990-04-01	54.0	@ Hamrun Spartans	2	1426	46.32%	Valletta	1	1541	34.79%	18.89%
11	1990-04-08 *	51.6	@ Hibernians	1	1460	35.56%	Hamrun Spartans	0	1495	45.55%	18.89%
12	1989-09-30	50.1	@ Hamrun Spartans	0	1226	73.47%	Hibernians	0	1030	7.79%	18.74%
13	1989-11-25	50.0	@ Hibernians	0	1035	65.33%	Zurrieq	0	975	15.83%	18.84%
14	1989-12-08	50.0	@ Zurrieq	0	1002	61.21%	Naxxar Lions	0	989	19.93%	18.87%
15	1989-09-30	49.9	@ Tarxien Rainbows	0	823	37.96%	Naxxar Lions	0	998	43.16%	18.88%
16	1990-01-28	47.6	Hamrun Spartans	3	1220	34.04%	@ Naxxar Lions	1	1110	47.07%	18.89%
17	1990-02-24	46.9	Zurrieq	2	835	40.61%	@ Zebbug Rangers	1	678	40.51%	18.88%
18	1990-03-17	46.1	Hamrun Spartans	2	1381	46.00%	@ Floriana	1	1186	35.13%	18.88%
19	1990-02-17	45.8	@ Hibernians	1	1329	40.36%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1487	40.76%	18.88%
20	1989-12-16	44.4	@ Hibernians	3	1075	65.69%	Naxxar Lions	2	1011	15.47%	18.84%
21	1990-01-20	43.9	Floriana	1	1118	33.52%	@ Zurrieq	0	1012	47.59%	18.89%
22	1990-04-01	43.8	Sliema Wanderers	3	1400	49.14%	@ Floriana	1	1181	31.99%	18.87%
23	1990-01-07	43.0	@ Valletta	1	1471	61.20%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1459	19.93%	18.87%
24	1989-10-28	42.1	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1189	73.37%	Naxxar Lions	2	996	7.89%	18.74%
25	1989-12-10	41.2	@ Sliema Wanderers	2	1393	66.48%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1319	14.68%	18.83%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1990-03-11	25.2	@ Sliema Wanderers	5	1373	82.48%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	501	0.18%	17.35%
2	1990-03-18	25.4	Valletta	5	1537	82.12%	@ Tarxien Rainbows	0	499	0.41%	17.47%
3	1990-03-04	25.7	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1379	82.09%	Zebbug Rangers	0	600	0.30%	17.62%
4	1989-11-25	25.9	@ Hamrun Spartans	10	1245	80.38%	Zebbug Rangers	0	736	1.36%	18.26%
5	1990-03-25	26.1	@ Hibernians	5	1444	80.35%	Naxxar Lions	0	938	1.39%	18.27%
6	1989-10-01	26.4	@ Valletta	5	1330	78.95%	Zebbug Rangers	0	935	2.58%	18.47%
7	1989-10-29	26.6	@ Valletta	4	1360	79.17%	Zurrieq	0	950	2.39%	18.45%
8	1989-12-10	26.7	@ Floriana	3	1210	80.91%	Zebbug Rangers	0	638	0.96%	18.13%
9	1989-12-05	26.8	@ Hibernians	7	1008	77.06%	Zebbug Rangers	0	706	4.33%	18.61%
10	1989-11-19	27.0	@ Sliema Wanderers	4	1342	78.13%	Naxxar Lions	0	992	3.33%	18.54%
11	1990-01-21	27.4	@ Naxxar Lions	3	1091	78.78%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	706	2.74%	18.49%
12	1989-10-01	27.9	@ Sliema Wanderers	5	1236	73.81%	Zurrieq	0	1032	7.46%	18.73%
13	1990-03-24	28.0	Floriana	4	1116	74.14%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	594	7.27%	18.59%
14	1989-11-04	28.3	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1206	75.78%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	949	5.55%	18.67%
15	1990-01-27	28.5	Sliema Wanderers	4	1413	73.06%	@ Zurrieq	0	916	8.31%	18.63%
16	1990-03-11	28.5	@ Valletta	2	1532	80.85%	Naxxar Lions	0	968	1.00%	18.15%
17	1990-03-03	28.8	Floriana	2	1169	78.03%	@ Tarxien Rainbows	0	518	3.59%	18.39%
18	1989-11-19	29.0	@ Floriana	2	1235	77.60%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	910	3.83%	18.58%
19	1990-01-21	29.3	Valletta	1	1517	81.92%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	516	0.50%	17.58%
20	1989-12-23	29.7	Sliema Wanderers	1	1456	80.61%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	632	1.36%	18.03%
21	1989-12-30	30.2	@ Hamrun Spartans	2	1252	73.92%	Zurrieq	0	1046	7.36%	18.73%
22	1989-11-05	30.9	@ Zurrieq	2	928	71.06%	Zebbug Rangers	0	783	10.16%	18.78%
23	1989-09-03	31.4	@ Hibernians	1	1071	74.91%	Tarxien Rainbows	0	839	6.40%	18.70%
24	1989-09-17	31.8	@ Floriana	2	1192	68.57%	Hibernians	0	1087	12.62%	18.82%
25	1990-01-07	32.0	Naxxar Lions	3	978	63.50%	@ Zebbug Rangers	0	628	17.71%	18.79%