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1990-91 Maltese Premier League Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Hamrun Spartans

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Birkirkara

2.40 points above expected

13 points · 10.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hibernians

3.27 points below expected

17 points · 20.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 16 10 4 2 24 31 18 +13 21.62 +2.38
2 Valletta 16 8 3 5 19 28 17 +11 19.34 -0.34
3 Floriana 16 6 6 4 18 15 11 +4 18.57 -0.57
4 Hibernians 16 5 7 4 17 18 15 +3 20.27 -3.27
5 Sliema Wanderers 16 4 7 5 15 24 20 +4 17.73 -2.73
6 Rabat Ajax 16 4 6 6 14 18 19 -1 12.51 +1.49
7 Zurrieq 16 4 6 6 14 12 19 -7 12.29 +1.71
8 Birkirkara 16 3 7 6 13 13 22 -9 10.60 +2.40
9 Naxxar Lions 16 3 4 9 10 11 29 -18 11.07 -1.07

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Birkirkara 13 10.60 +2.40
2 Hamrun Spartans 24 21.62 +2.38
3 Zurrieq 14 12.29 +1.71
4 Rabat Ajax 14 12.51 +1.49
5 Valletta 19 19.34 -0.34

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hibernians 17 20.27 -3.27
2 Sliema Wanderers 15 17.73 -2.73
3 Naxxar Lions 10 11.07 -1.07
4 Floriana 18 18.57 -0.57
5 Valletta 19 19.34 -0.34

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rabat Ajax 4 Feb 2 – Mar 31 1 in 437
2 Zurrieq 2 Feb 24 – Mar 3 1 in 188
3 Hamrun Spartans 7 Sep 15 – Dec 29 1 in 17
4 Birkirkara 3 Mar 3 – Mar 31 1 in 12
5 Valletta 5 Sep 23 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernians 1 Sep 1 – Sep 1 1 in 39
2 Naxxar Lions 4 Jan 19 – Mar 2 1 in 7
3 Valletta 2 Dec 8 – Dec 30 1 in 6
4 Sliema Wanderers 2 Sep 29 – Oct 9 1 in 6
5 Hamrun Spartans 1 Mar 2 – Mar 2 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Birkirkara 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 9
2 Rabat Ajax 4 Oct 6 – Nov 18 1 in 9
3 Hamrun Spartans 12 Sep 1 – Feb 3 1 in 7
4 Floriana 6 Dec 8 – Mar 2 1 in 6
5 Naxxar Lions 3 Sep 9 – Sep 29 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernians 5 Feb 2 – Apr 6 1 in 24
2 Sliema Wanderers 7 Sep 9 – Dec 8 1 in 19
3 Rabat Ajax 11 Sep 1 – Jan 20 1 in 13
4 Zurrieq 11 Sep 9 – Feb 2 1 in 10
5 Birkirkara 13 Sep 1 – Feb 24 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hamrun Spartans 1293 24 -111 5 6.5 -1.5
Valletta 1029 19 -179 5 5.7 -0.7
Floriana 1124 18 +36 6 5.4 +0.6
Hibernians 1119 17 -99 4 5.9 -1.9
Sliema Wanderers 987 15 -283 3 4.8 -1.8
Rabat Ajax 1252 14 +342 8 5.2 +2.8
Zurrieq 1219 14 +233 6 4.5 +1.5
Birkirkara 1106 13 +173 7 4.4 +2.6
Naxxar Lions 955 10 -75 1 2.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB NL RA SW VAL ZUR
Birkirkara —
0-1-1
0.81
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
0.69
0-1-1
0.81
0-2-0
2.56
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-2
0.68
1-1-0
2.14
Floriana
1-1-0
4.49
 —
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
4.31
0-1-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.27
2-0-0
3.45
0-1-1
2.86
Hamrun Spartans
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.37
 —
2-0-0
2.70
2-0-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.54
1-1-0
4.55
0-2-0
2.95
1-1-0
3.99
Hibernians
1-1-0
4.66
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.61
 —
1-1-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.64
0-2-0
2.76
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
3.15
Naxxar Lions
1-1-0
4.50
0-1-1
0.97
0-0-2
0.69
0-1-1
0.84
 —
0-1-1
1.23
1-0-1
1.70
0-0-2
0.86
1-0-1
2.59
Rabat Ajax
0-2-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.28
0-0-2
0.79
0-0-2
0.71
1-1-0
4.04
 —
1-1-0
2.24
0-0-2
0.68
1-1-0
2.51
Sliema Wanderers
0-1-1
1.95
0-1-1
3.02
0-1-1
0.77
0-2-0
2.54
1-0-1
3.60
0-1-1
3.05
 —
2-0-0
4.12
1-1-0
4.65
Valletta
2-0-0
4.69
0-0-2
1.83
0-2-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.72
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.68
0-0-2
1.15
 —
1-0-1
4.63
Zurrieq
0-1-1
3.14
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
1.33
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.77
0-1-1
0.70
1-0-1
0.71
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.66 +4.6
Allowed 0.42 -5.3
Differential 0.84 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.06%8.33%5.56%2.08%0.69%1.39%36.11%
18.33%12.50%5.56%4.86%——31.25%
25.56%5.56%4.17%2.08%0.69%0.69%18.75%
32.08%4.86%2.08%—0.69%—9.72%
40.69%—0.69%0.69%——2.08%
5+1.39%—0.69%———2.08%
Total36.11%31.25%18.75%9.72%2.08%2.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.18 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.72
CV 1.06 1.06 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
031.25%——6.25%——37.50%
1—12.50%6.25%25.00%——43.75%
2—18.75%————18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%31.25%6.25%31.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.38 -0.56
SD 0.75 1.26 1.26
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%6.25%————31.25%
125.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%——56.25%
2—6.25%————6.25%
3———————
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total56.25%25.00%12.50%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 0.69 +0.25
SD 1.00 0.95 1.34
CV 1.06 1.38 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%————18.75%
16.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
3—25.00%12.50%———37.50%
4———6.25%——6.25%
5+———————
Total25.00%43.75%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.12 +0.81
SD 1.29 0.89 1.05
CV 0.67 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%————18.75%
112.50%25.00%12.50%6.25%——56.25%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%37.50%18.75%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.94 +0.19
SD 0.81 0.93 1.22
CV 0.72 0.99 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%12.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%62.50%
1—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
212.50%————6.25%18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%25.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 1.81 -1.12
SD 1.01 1.91 2.25
CV 1.48 1.05 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%18.75%6.25%———43.75%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
3———————
4———————
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total31.25%37.50%18.75%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.19 -0.06
SD 1.36 1.17 1.34
CV 1.21 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%12.50%———31.25%
16.25%18.75%6.25%———31.25%
2——12.50%———12.50%
36.25%—6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total31.25%25.00%37.50%—6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.25 +0.25
SD 1.63 1.13 1.95
CV 1.09 0.90 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
26.25%6.25%—6.25%——18.75%
36.25%12.50%————18.75%
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total31.25%43.75%12.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.06 +0.69
SD 1.73 1.00 2.18
CV 0.99 0.94 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%6.25%12.50%——6.25%50.00%
112.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
212.50%—6.25%6.25%——25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%12.50%25.00%6.25%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.19 -0.44
SD 0.86 1.64 1.90
CV 1.14 1.38 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hamrun Spartans 1293 24 21.62 +2.38 89.0% 17 18 20 21 24 25 28
Rabat Ajax 1252 14 12.51 +1.49 84.0% 8 9 11 13 14 16 17
Zurrieq 1219 14 12.29 +1.71 84.0% 6 9 11 12 13 16 18
Floriana 1124 18 18.57 -0.57 43.0% 12 15 17 19 20 22 24
Hibernians 1119 17 20.27 -3.27 9.0% 15 16 19 21 22 24 25
Birkirkara 1106 13 10.60 +2.40 89.0% 5 6 9 11 12 14 17
Valletta 1029 19 19.34 -0.34 56.0% 13 15 18 19 21 24 25
Sliema Wanderers 987 15 17.73 -2.73 17.0% 12 14 16 18 19 21 23
Naxxar Lions 955 10 11.07 -1.07 38.0% 6 8 10 11 12 15 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+56.94%
Strong Edge
61.11%34.72%4.17%
Elo Value
Home Edge
401 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
0224.691500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.03 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.56+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Hamrun Spartans, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.83 * Some Luck: 1.83 to 2.74 * Lucky: 2.74 to 3.65 * Wild Swing: 3.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.83 * Close: 0.83 to 1.24 * Off: 1.24 to 1.66 * Way Off: 1.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.01 points
Some Luck
02.286
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Pinpoint
01.042.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
89.00%
Hamrun Spartans
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
9.00%
Hibernians
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 117.69
1.26
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
75%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
10%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.83
Lopsided
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.77
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Some Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
6%
Chalky
0%6%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
4%
Solid Favorites
0%5%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
<0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.30
Overconfident
01.002.69577
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1170.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Hamrun Spartans53.00%23.00%14.00%9.00%1.00%————
Valletta15.00%20.00%27.00%19.00%17.00%2.00%———
Floriana4.00%20.00%19.00%32.00%18.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Hibernians22.00%30.00%25.00%13.00%10.00%————
Sliema Wanderers6.00%7.00%15.00%25.00%38.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%—
Rabat Ajax————8.00%42.00%22.00%16.00%12.00%
Zurrieq———2.00%4.00%24.00%33.00%26.00%11.00%
Birkirkara—————15.00%18.00%20.00%47.00%
Naxxar Lions————4.00%7.00%24.00%35.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Zurrieq 89.00% 11.00%
Rabat Ajax 88.00% 12.00%
Naxxar Lions 70.00% 30.00%
Birkirkara 53.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1990-09-01 Rabat Ajax D 1-149.6 864 921 57.76% 36.35% 5.89%+0.42 -24.4 1
1990-09-01 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.6 921 864 5.89% 36.35% 57.76%-0.42 +24.4 1
1990-09-01 Hamrun Spartans L 1-258.3 1365 1282 62.13% 35.29% 2.58%+0.77 -118.7 0
1990-09-01 @ Hibernians W 2-158.3 1282 1365 2.58% 35.29% 62.13%-0.77 +118.7 2
1990-09-02 Valletta W 3-245.6 1346 1323 60.56% 35.81% 3.63%+0.62 +12.4 2
1990-09-02 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-345.6 1323 1346 3.63% 35.81% 60.56%-0.62 -12.4 0
1990-09-02 Floriana W 1-036.0 945 1064 54.81% 36.62% 8.57%+0.26 +27.9 2
1990-09-02 @ Zurrieq L 0-136.0 1064 945 8.57% 36.62% 54.81%-0.26 -27.9 0
1990-09-08 Valletta D 0-047.2 1400 1310 62.28% 35.23% 2.48%+0.78 -33.6 3
1990-09-08 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-047.2 1310 1400 2.48% 35.23% 62.28%-0.78 +33.6 1
1990-09-08 Rabat Ajax W 2-029.3 1246 945 66.49% 32.70% 0.81%+1.31 +5.8 2
1990-09-08 @ Hibernians L 0-229.3 945 1246 0.81% 32.70% 66.49%-1.31 -5.8 1
1990-09-09 Birkirkara D 0-045.3 974 839 63.28% 34.78% 1.94%+0.90 -34.8 1
1990-09-09 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-045.3 839 974 1.94% 34.78% 63.28%-0.90 +34.8 2
1990-09-09 Zurrieq D 1-151.2 1359 973 68.03% 31.44% 0.53%+1.52 -34.2 3
1990-09-09 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.2 973 1359 0.53% 31.44% 68.03%-1.52 +34.1 3
1990-09-15 Naxxar Lions D 0-045.2 1037 939 62.45% 35.16% 2.39%+0.80 -33.8 1
1990-09-15 @ Floriana D 0-045.2 939 1037 2.39% 35.16% 62.45%-0.80 +33.9 2
1990-09-15 Zurrieq W 3-242.1 1367 1007 67.56% 31.84% 0.60%+1.46 +2.0 5
1990-09-15 @ Hamrun Spartans L 2-342.1 1007 1367 0.60% 31.84% 67.56%-1.46 -2.0 3
1990-09-15 Birkirkara D 0-046.3 1252 874 67.90% 31.55% 0.55%+1.50 -38.1 3
1990-09-15 @ Hibernians D 0-046.3 874 1252 0.55% 31.55% 67.90%-1.50 +38.1 3
1990-09-23 Rabat Ajax W 1-032.0 1344 940 68.37% 31.14% 0.48%+1.57 +1.7 3
1990-09-23 @ Valletta L 0-132.0 940 1344 0.48% 31.14% 68.37%-1.57 -1.7 1
1990-09-29 Birkirkara W 2-139.1 1003 912 62.29% 35.23% 2.48%+0.79 +9.2 3
1990-09-29 @ Floriana L 1-239.1 912 1003 2.48% 35.23% 62.29%-0.79 -9.2 3
1990-09-29 Sliema Wanderers W 2-039.7 973 1325 32.11% 36.63% 31.26%-0.32 +127.2 4
1990-09-29 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-239.7 1325 973 31.26% 36.63% 32.11%+0.32 -127.2 3
1990-10-06 Naxxar Lions W 3-135.1 1369 1100 65.89% 33.15% 0.96%+1.23 +6.0 7
1990-10-06 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-335.1 1100 1369 0.96% 33.15% 65.89%-1.23 -6.0 4
1990-10-06 Rabat Ajax D 2-255.1 1006 938 61.73% 35.44% 2.82%+0.73 -21.9 4
1990-10-06 @ Zurrieq D 2-255.1 938 1006 2.82% 35.44% 61.73%-0.73 +21.9 2
1990-10-09 Sliema Wanderers W 1-037.3 1012 1197 50.42% 36.80% 12.78%+0.10 +37.3 5
1990-10-09 @ Floriana L 0-137.3 1197 1012 12.78% 36.80% 50.42%-0.10 -37.3 3
1990-10-09 Hibernians W 2-139.5 1345 1214 63.21% 34.82% 1.98%+0.89 +7.4 5
1990-10-09 @ Valletta L 1-239.5 1214 1345 1.98% 34.82% 63.21%-0.89 -7.4 3
1990-10-13 Zurrieq D 0-045.7 1207 984 65.04% 33.75% 1.21%+1.12 -36.5 4
1990-10-13 @ Hibernians D 0-045.7 984 1207 1.21% 33.75% 65.04%-1.12 +36.5 5
1990-10-13 Birkirkara W 3-133.8 1353 903 69.21% 30.40% 0.38%+1.68 +2.2 7
1990-10-13 @ Valletta L 1-333.8 903 1353 0.38% 30.40% 69.21%-1.68 -2.1 3
1990-10-14 Floriana W 3-134.6 1375 1049 66.94% 32.35% 0.72%+1.37 +4.3 9
1990-10-14 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-334.6 1049 1375 0.72% 32.35% 66.94%-1.37 -4.3 5
1990-10-14 Naxxar Lions D 0-044.8 960 1094 53.92% 36.68% 9.40%+0.23 -22.0 3
1990-10-14 @ Rabat Ajax D 0-044.8 1094 960 9.40% 36.68% 53.92%-0.23 +22.0 5
1990-11-04 Sliema Wanderers D 1-149.5 901 1160 43.64% 36.83% 19.53%-0.09 -9.4 4
1990-11-04 @ Birkirkara D 1-149.5 1160 901 19.53% 36.83% 43.64%+0.09 +9.4 4
1990-11-04 Zurrieq W 2-029.3 1355 1020 67.11% 32.21% 0.68%+1.39 +4.8 9
1990-11-04 @ Valletta L 0-229.3 1020 1355 0.68% 32.21% 67.11%-1.39 -4.8 5
1990-11-10 Rabat Ajax D 1-150.0 1045 938 62.67% 35.07% 2.26%+0.83 -30.5 6
1990-11-10 @ Floriana D 1-150.0 938 1045 2.26% 35.07% 62.67%-0.83 +30.5 4
1990-11-10 Sliema Wanderers W 4-345.8 1379 1169 64.78% 33.92% 1.30%+1.08 +4.5 11
1990-11-10 @ Hamrun Spartans L 3-445.8 1169 1379 1.30% 33.92% 64.78%-1.08 -4.5 4
1990-11-11 Naxxar Lions W 1-034.1 1170 1116 61.39% 35.56% 3.05%+0.69 +11.8 6
1990-11-11 @ Hibernians L 0-134.1 1116 1170 3.05% 35.56% 61.39%-0.69 -11.8 5
1990-11-11 Birkirkara D 0-045.3 1015 891 63.04% 34.90% 2.06%+0.87 -34.6 6
1990-11-11 @ Zurrieq D 0-045.3 891 1015 2.06% 34.90% 63.04%-0.87 +34.6 5
1990-11-17 Floriana W 2-138.6 1182 1014 63.96% 34.42% 1.62%+0.98 +6.0 8
1990-11-17 @ Hibernians L 1-238.6 1014 1182 1.62% 34.42% 63.96%-0.98 -6.0 6
1990-11-17 Naxxar Lions W 6-028.9 1360 1104 65.65% 33.33% 1.02%+1.20 +20.7 11
1990-11-17 @ Valletta L 0-628.9 1104 1360 1.02% 33.33% 65.65%-1.20 -20.7 5
1990-11-18 Birkirkara W 3-133.8 1383 926 69.35% 30.28% 0.37%+1.70 +2.1 13
1990-11-18 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-333.8 926 1383 0.37% 30.28% 69.35%-1.70 -2.0 5
1990-11-18 Sliema Wanderers D 0-044.7 968 1165 49.54% 36.81% 13.65%+0.07 -16.7 5
1990-11-18 @ Rabat Ajax D 0-044.7 1165 968 13.65% 36.81% 49.54%-0.07 +16.7 5
1990-12-01 Rabat Ajax W 1-031.9 1386 952 68.92% 30.66% 0.42%+1.64 +1.4 15
1990-12-01 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-131.9 952 1386 0.42% 30.66% 68.92%-1.64 -1.4 5
1990-12-01 Zurrieq W 2-030.5 1084 981 62.58% 35.11% 2.31%+0.82 +17.2 7
1990-12-01 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-230.5 981 1084 2.31% 35.11% 62.58%-0.82 -17.2 6
1990-12-08 Valletta W 1-043.8 1008 1380 29.23% 36.55% 34.22%-0.37 +71.5 8
1990-12-08 @ Floriana L 0-143.8 1380 1008 34.22% 36.55% 29.23%+0.37 -71.5 11
1990-12-08 Hibernians D 1-149.9 1182 1188 59.63% 36.03% 4.34%+0.54 -26.8 6
1990-12-08 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-149.9 1188 1182 4.34% 36.03% 59.63%-0.54 +26.8 9
1990-12-29 Hibernians W 3-136.2 1387 1215 64.05% 34.37% 1.59%+0.99 +10.2 17
1990-12-29 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-336.2 1215 1387 1.59% 34.37% 64.05%-0.99 -10.2 9
1990-12-29 Birkirkara D 0-045.0 950 924 60.63% 35.79% 3.58%+0.63 -31.4 6
1990-12-29 @ Rabat Ajax D 0-045.0 924 950 3.58% 35.79% 60.63%-0.63 +31.4 6
1990-12-30 Zurrieq D 0-045.3 1080 964 62.88% 34.97% 2.15%+0.85 -34.4 9
1990-12-30 @ Floriana D 0-045.3 964 1080 2.15% 34.97% 62.88%-0.85 +34.4 7
1990-12-30 Valletta W 3-032.0 1155 1309 52.68% 36.73% 10.59%+0.18 +89.4 8
1990-12-30 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-332.0 1309 1155 10.59% 36.73% 52.68%-0.18 -89.4 11
1991-01-06 Rabat Ajax W 1-032.6 1205 919 66.21% 32.91% 0.88%+1.27 +3.3 11
1991-01-06 @ Hibernians L 0-132.6 919 1205 0.88% 32.91% 66.21%-1.27 -3.3 6
1991-01-06 Birkirkara W 3-135.4 1101 955 63.51% 34.66% 1.83%+0.92 +11.8 9
1991-01-06 @ Naxxar Lions L 1-335.4 955 1101 1.83% 34.66% 63.51%-0.92 -11.8 6
1991-01-12 Zurrieq W 6-028.7 1244 998 65.48% 33.45% 1.07%+1.17 +21.8 10
1991-01-12 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-628.7 998 1244 1.07% 33.45% 65.48%-1.17 -21.8 7
1991-01-12 Hamrun Spartans D 1-150.5 1220 1397 51.02% 36.78% 12.20%+0.12 -16.5 12
1991-01-12 @ Valletta D 1-150.5 1397 1220 12.20% 36.78% 51.02%-0.12 +16.5 18
1991-01-19 Naxxar Lions W 4-029.9 1045 1113 57.35% 36.40% 6.25%+0.39 +78.2 11
1991-01-19 @ Floriana L 0-429.9 1113 1045 6.25% 36.40% 57.35%-0.39 -78.2 9
1991-01-19 Hamrun Spartans D 0-045.1 976 1414 21.16% 36.22% 42.62%-0.53 +9.2 8
1991-01-19 @ Zurrieq D 0-045.1 1414 976 42.62% 36.22% 21.16%+0.53 -9.2 19
1991-01-20 Birkirkara W 3-027.7 1208 944 65.82% 33.21% 0.98%+1.22 +10.3 13
1991-01-20 @ Hibernians L 0-327.7 944 1208 0.98% 33.21% 65.82%-1.22 -10.3 6
1991-01-20 Rabat Ajax W 4-238.0 1203 916 66.24% 32.89% 0.87%+1.28 +4.8 14
1991-01-20 @ Valletta L 2-438.0 916 1203 0.87% 32.89% 66.24%-1.28 -4.8 6
1991-01-26 Naxxar Lions W 1-032.9 1266 1035 65.20% 33.64% 1.16%+1.14 +4.5 12
1991-01-26 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-132.9 1035 1266 1.16% 33.64% 65.20%-1.14 -4.5 9
1991-01-30 Birkirkara D 0-045.5 1124 933 64.41% 34.15% 1.44%+1.03 -36.0 12
1991-01-30 @ Floriana D 0-045.5 933 1124 1.44% 34.15% 64.41%-1.03 +36.0 7
1991-02-02 Valletta D 1-150.0 1218 1208 60.16% 35.91% 3.93%+0.59 -27.5 14
1991-02-02 @ Hibernians D 1-150.0 1208 1218 3.93% 35.91% 60.16%-0.59 +27.5 15
1991-02-02 Zurrieq W 1-035.3 911 985 57.03% 36.43% 6.54%+0.37 +22.7 8
1991-02-02 @ Rabat Ajax L 0-135.3 985 911 6.54% 36.43% 57.03%-0.37 -22.6 8
1991-02-03 Naxxar Lions W 2-029.1 1404 1030 67.83% 31.61% 0.56%+1.49 +3.8 21
1991-02-03 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-229.1 1030 1404 0.56% 31.61% 67.83%-1.49 -3.8 9
1991-02-03 Floriana D 0-045.6 1271 1088 64.26% 34.24% 1.50%+1.02 -35.9 13
1991-02-03 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-045.6 1088 1271 1.50% 34.24% 64.26%-1.02 +35.9 13
1991-02-24 Birkirkara W 3-134.8 1235 969 65.85% 33.18% 0.97%+1.22 +6.1 17
1991-02-24 @ Valletta L 1-334.8 969 1235 0.97% 33.18% 65.85%-1.22 -6.1 7
1991-02-24 Hibernians W 1-038.4 963 1191 46.77% 36.84% 16.39%-0.01 +44.3 10
1991-02-24 @ Zurrieq L 0-138.4 1191 963 16.39% 36.84% 46.77%+0.01 -44.3 14
1991-03-02 Hamrun Spartans W 1-040.7 1124 1408 40.78% 36.80% 22.42%-0.15 +54.5 15
1991-03-02 @ Floriana L 0-140.7 1408 1124 22.42% 36.80% 40.78%+0.15 -54.5 21
1991-03-02 Naxxar Lions W 5-237.4 933 1026 56.18% 36.52% 7.30%+0.33 +49.4 10
1991-03-02 @ Rabat Ajax L 2-537.4 1026 933 7.30% 36.52% 56.18%-0.33 -49.4 9
1991-03-03 Sliema Wanderers W 2-145.1 963 1235 42.29% 36.82% 20.89%-0.12 +49.1 9
1991-03-03 @ Birkirkara L 1-245.1 1235 963 20.89% 36.82% 42.29%+0.12 -49.1 13
1991-03-03 Zurrieq L 0-248.9 1241 1007 65.26% 33.60% 1.14%+1.14 -248.2 17
1991-03-03 @ Valletta W 2-048.9 1007 1241 1.14% 33.60% 65.26%-1.14 +248.2 12
1991-03-23 Sliema Wanderers D 2-256.0 1354 1186 63.97% 34.41% 1.62%+0.98 -23.7 22
1991-03-23 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-256.0 1186 1354 1.62% 34.41% 63.97%-0.98 +23.7 14
1991-03-23 Naxxar Lions D 1-150.2 1146 977 64.00% 34.39% 1.61%+0.98 -31.9 15
1991-03-23 @ Hibernians D 1-150.2 977 1146 1.61% 34.39% 64.00%-0.98 +31.8 10
1991-03-24 Zurrieq W 2-144.2 1012 1255 45.32% 36.84% 17.84%-0.05 +44.2 11
1991-03-24 @ Birkirkara L 1-244.2 1255 1012 17.84% 36.84% 45.32%+0.05 -44.2 12
1991-03-24 Floriana W 2-142.9 983 1178 49.64% 36.81% 13.55%+0.07 +36.7 12
1991-03-24 @ Rabat Ajax L 1-242.9 1178 983 13.55% 36.81% 49.64%-0.07 -36.6 15
1991-03-30 Hibernians D 1-149.8 1141 1115 60.65% 35.78% 3.57%+0.63 -28.1 16
1991-03-30 @ Floriana D 1-149.8 1115 1141 3.57% 35.78% 60.65%-0.63 +28.1 16
1991-03-30 Naxxar Lions W 3-029.6 993 1009 59.33% 36.09% 4.58%+0.52 +46.3 19
1991-03-30 @ Valletta L 0-329.6 1009 993 4.58% 36.09% 59.33%-0.52 -46.3 10
1991-03-31 Hamrun Spartans W 2-145.3 1057 1330 42.07% 36.82% 21.11%-0.12 +49.5 13
1991-03-31 @ Birkirkara L 1-245.3 1330 1057 21.11% 36.82% 42.07%+0.12 -49.5 22
1991-03-31 Rabat Ajax L 0-248.8 1209 1019 64.40% 34.16% 1.44%+1.03 -245.8 14
1991-03-31 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-048.8 1019 1209 1.44% 34.16% 64.40%-1.03 +245.8 14
1991-04-06 Valletta W 1-033.9 1113 1040 61.89% 35.39% 2.73%+0.74 +10.7 18
1991-04-06 @ Floriana L 0-133.9 1040 1113 2.73% 35.39% 61.89%-0.74 -10.7 19
1991-04-06 Sliema Wanderers D 2-255.5 1143 963 64.19% 34.28% 1.53%+1.01 -23.9 17
1991-04-06 @ Hibernians D 2-255.5 963 1143 1.53% 34.28% 64.19%-1.01 +23.9 15
1991-04-07 Rabat Ajax W 3-244.8 1281 1265 60.31% 35.87% 3.82%+0.60 +13.0 24
1991-04-07 @ Hamrun Spartans L 2-344.8 1265 1281 3.82% 35.87% 60.31%-0.60 -13.0 14
1991-04-07 Naxxar Lions W 2-029.6 1211 962 65.52% 33.42% 1.06%+1.18 +7.7 14
1991-04-07 @ Zurrieq L 0-229.6 962 1211 1.06% 33.42% 65.52%-1.18 -7.7 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-03-03 1.14% Zurrieq 1007 2 @ Valletta 1241 0
2 1991-03-31 1.44% Rabat Ajax 1019 2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1209 0
3 1990-09-01 2.58% Hamrun Spartans 1282 2 @ Hibernians 1365 1
4 1990-12-08 29.23% @ Floriana 1008 1 Valletta 1380 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-03-03 248.16 Zurrieq 2 1007 1.14% @ Valletta 0 1241 65.26% 33.60%
2 1991-03-31 245.81 Rabat Ajax 2 1019 1.44% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1209 64.40% 34.16%
3 1990-09-29 127.18 @ Naxxar Lions 2 973 32.11% Sliema Wanderers 0 1325 31.26% 36.63%
4 1990-09-01 118.73 Hamrun Spartans 2 1282 2.58% @ Hibernians 1 1365 62.13% 35.29%
5 1990-12-30 89.37 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1155 52.68% Valletta 0 1309 10.59% 36.73%
6 1991-01-19 78.24 @ Floriana 4 1045 57.35% Naxxar Lions 0 1113 6.25% 36.40%
7 1990-12-08 71.49 @ Floriana 1 1008 29.23% Valletta 0 1380 34.22% 36.55%
8 1991-03-02 54.55 @ Floriana 1 1124 40.78% Hamrun Spartans 0 1408 22.42% 36.80%
9 1991-03-31 49.45 @ Birkirkara 2 1057 42.07% Hamrun Spartans 1 1330 21.11% 36.82%
10 1991-03-02 49.39 @ Rabat Ajax 5 933 56.18% Naxxar Lions 2 1026 7.30% 36.52%
11 1991-03-03 49.12 @ Birkirkara 2 963 42.29% Sliema Wanderers 1 1235 20.89% 36.82%
12 1991-03-30 46.34 @ Valletta 3 993 59.33% Naxxar Lions 0 1009 4.58% 36.09%
13 1991-02-24 44.31 @ Zurrieq 1 963 46.77% Hibernians 0 1191 16.39% 36.84%
14 1991-03-24 44.23 @ Birkirkara 2 1012 45.32% Zurrieq 1 1255 17.84% 36.84%
15 1990-09-15 38.13 @ Hibernians 0 1252 67.90% Birkirkara 0 874 0.55% 31.55%
16 1990-10-09 37.32 @ Floriana 1 1012 50.42% Sliema Wanderers 0 1197 12.78% 36.80%
17 1991-03-24 36.66 @ Rabat Ajax 2 983 49.64% Floriana 1 1178 13.55% 36.81%
18 1990-10-13 36.54 @ Hibernians 0 1207 65.04% Zurrieq 0 984 1.21% 33.75%
19 1991-01-30 36.01 Birkirkara 0 933 1.44% @ Floriana 0 1124 64.41% 34.15%
20 1991-02-03 35.86 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1271 64.26% Floriana 0 1088 1.50% 34.24%
21 1990-09-09 34.84 Birkirkara 0 839 1.94% @ Naxxar Lions 0 974 63.28% 34.78%
22 1990-11-11 34.57 @ Zurrieq 0 1015 63.04% Birkirkara 0 891 2.06% 34.90%
23 1990-12-30 34.37 Zurrieq 0 964 2.15% @ Floriana 0 1080 62.88% 34.97%
24 1990-09-09 34.15 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1359 68.03% Zurrieq 1 973 0.53% 31.44%
25 1990-09-15 33.85 Naxxar Lions 0 939 2.39% @ Floriana 0 1037 62.45% 35.16%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-09-01 58.3 Hamrun Spartans 2 1282 2.58% @ Hibernians 1 1365 62.13% 35.29%
2 1991-03-23 56.0 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1354 63.97% Sliema Wanderers 2 1186 1.62% 34.41%
3 1991-04-06 55.5 @ Hibernians 2 1143 64.19% Sliema Wanderers 2 963 1.53% 34.28%
4 1990-10-06 55.1 @ Zurrieq 2 1006 61.73% Rabat Ajax 2 938 2.82% 35.44%
5 1990-09-09 51.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1359 68.03% Zurrieq 1 973 0.53% 31.44%
6 1991-01-12 50.5 @ Valletta 1 1220 51.02% Hamrun Spartans 1 1397 12.20% 36.78%
7 1991-03-23 50.2 @ Hibernians 1 1146 64.00% Naxxar Lions 1 977 1.61% 34.39%
8 1990-11-10 50.0 @ Floriana 1 1045 62.67% Rabat Ajax 1 938 2.26% 35.07%
9 1991-02-02 50.0 @ Hibernians 1 1218 60.16% Valletta 1 1208 3.93% 35.91%
10 1990-12-08 49.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1182 59.63% Hibernians 1 1188 4.34% 36.03%
11 1991-03-30 49.8 @ Floriana 1 1141 60.65% Hibernians 1 1115 3.57% 35.78%
12 1990-09-01 49.6 @ Birkirkara 1 864 57.76% Rabat Ajax 1 921 5.89% 36.35%
13 1990-11-04 49.5 @ Birkirkara 1 901 43.64% Sliema Wanderers 1 1160 19.53% 36.83%
14 1991-03-03 48.9 Zurrieq 2 1007 1.14% @ Valletta 0 1241 65.26% 33.60%
15 1991-03-31 48.8 Rabat Ajax 2 1019 1.44% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1209 64.40% 34.16%
16 1990-09-08 47.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1400 62.28% Valletta 0 1310 2.48% 35.23%
17 1990-09-15 46.3 @ Hibernians 0 1252 67.90% Birkirkara 0 874 0.55% 31.55%
18 1990-11-10 45.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1379 64.78% Sliema Wanderers 3 1169 1.30% 33.92%
19 1990-10-13 45.7 @ Hibernians 0 1207 65.04% Zurrieq 0 984 1.21% 33.75%
20 1990-09-02 45.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1346 60.56% Valletta 2 1323 3.63% 35.81%
21 1991-02-03 45.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1271 64.26% Floriana 0 1088 1.50% 34.24%
22 1991-01-30 45.5 @ Floriana 0 1124 64.41% Birkirkara 0 933 1.44% 34.15%
23 1990-09-09 45.3 @ Naxxar Lions 0 974 63.28% Birkirkara 0 839 1.94% 34.78%
24 1990-11-11 45.3 @ Zurrieq 0 1015 63.04% Birkirkara 0 891 2.06% 34.90%
25 1990-12-30 45.3 @ Floriana 0 1080 62.88% Zurrieq 0 964 2.15% 34.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-01-20 27.7 @ Hibernians 3 1208 65.82% Birkirkara 0 944 0.98% 33.21%
2 1991-01-12 28.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 6 1244 65.48% Zurrieq 0 998 1.07% 33.45%
3 1990-11-17 28.9 @ Valletta 6 1360 65.65% Naxxar Lions 0 1104 1.02% 33.33%
4 1991-02-03 29.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1404 67.83% Naxxar Lions 0 1030 0.56% 31.61%
5 1990-09-08 29.3 @ Hibernians 2 1246 66.49% Rabat Ajax 0 945 0.81% 32.70%
6 1990-11-04 29.3 @ Valletta 2 1355 67.11% Zurrieq 0 1020 0.68% 32.21%
7 1991-03-30 29.6 @ Valletta 3 993 59.33% Naxxar Lions 0 1009 4.58% 36.09%
8 1991-04-07 29.6 @ Zurrieq 2 1211 65.52% Naxxar Lions 0 962 1.06% 33.42%
9 1991-01-19 29.9 @ Floriana 4 1045 57.35% Naxxar Lions 0 1113 6.25% 36.40%
10 1990-12-01 30.5 @ Naxxar Lions 2 1084 62.58% Zurrieq 0 981 2.31% 35.11%
11 1990-12-01 31.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1386 68.92% Rabat Ajax 0 952 0.42% 30.66%
12 1990-09-23 32.0 @ Valletta 1 1344 68.37% Rabat Ajax 0 940 0.48% 31.14%
13 1990-12-30 32.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1155 52.68% Valletta 0 1309 10.59% 36.73%
14 1991-01-06 32.6 @ Hibernians 1 1205 66.21% Rabat Ajax 0 919 0.88% 32.91%
15 1991-01-26 32.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1266 65.20% Naxxar Lions 0 1035 1.16% 33.64%
16 1990-10-13 33.8 @ Valletta 3 1353 69.21% Birkirkara 1 903 0.38% 30.40%
17 1990-11-18 33.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1383 69.35% Birkirkara 1 926 0.37% 30.28%
18 1991-04-06 33.9 @ Floriana 1 1113 61.89% Valletta 0 1040 2.73% 35.39%
19 1990-11-11 34.1 @ Hibernians 1 1170 61.39% Naxxar Lions 0 1116 3.05% 35.56%
20 1990-10-14 34.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1375 66.94% Floriana 1 1049 0.72% 32.35%
21 1991-02-24 34.8 @ Valletta 3 1235 65.85% Birkirkara 1 969 0.97% 33.18%
22 1990-10-06 35.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1369 65.89% Naxxar Lions 1 1100 0.96% 33.15%
23 1991-02-02 35.3 @ Rabat Ajax 1 911 57.03% Zurrieq 0 985 6.54% 36.43%
24 1991-01-06 35.4 @ Naxxar Lions 3 1101 63.51% Birkirkara 1 955 1.83% 34.66%
25 1990-09-02 36.0 @ Zurrieq 1 945 54.81% Floriana 0 1064 8.57% 36.62%