1991-92 Maltese Premier League Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Valletta

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valletta

8.29 points above expected

33 points · 24.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mqabba

4.69 points below expected

5 points · 9.69 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valletta	18	15	3	0	33	46	8	+38	24.71	+8.29
2	Sliema Wanderers	18	11	3	4	25	37	18	+19	21.05	+3.95
3	Floriana	18	10	5	3	25	26	12	+14	20.99	+4.01
4	Hamrun Spartans	18	10	3	5	23	52	28	+24	24.31	-1.31
5	Rabat Ajax	18	6	7	5	19	32	25	+7	20.74	-1.74
6	Hibernians	18	6	7	5	19	20	23	-3	18.27	+0.73
7	Birkirkara	18	4	8	6	16	20	28	-8	16.91	-0.91
8	Zurrieq	18	2	4	12	8	20	47	-27	12.30	-4.30
9	St. Andrews	18	3	1	14	7	14	45	-31	11.03	-4.03
10	Mqabba	18	1	3	14	5	11	44	-33	9.69	-4.69

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valletta	33	24.71	+8.29
2	Floriana	25	20.99	+4.01
3	Sliema Wanderers	25	21.05	+3.95
4	Hibernians	19	18.27	+0.73
5	Birkirkara	16	16.91	-0.91

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Mqabba	5	9.69	-4.69
2	Zurrieq	8	12.30	-4.30
3	St. Andrews	7	11.03	-4.03
4	Rabat Ajax	19	20.74	-1.74
5	Hamrun Spartans	23	24.31	-1.31

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valletta	9	Mar 15 – May 24	1 in 109
2	Sliema Wanderers	5	Feb 2 – Apr 12	1 in 67
3	Birkirkara	2	Apr 12 – Apr 19	1 in 11
4	Mqabba	1	Sep 28 – Sep 28	1 in 9
5	Rabat Ajax	2	May 17 – May 24	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mqabba	8	Dec 22 – Apr 26	1 in 123
2	Hamrun Spartans	2	Apr 5 – Apr 12	1 in 24
3	St. Andrews	5	Mar 15 – Apr 19	1 in 15
4	Zurrieq	5	Apr 12 – May 17	1 in 6
5	Rabat Ajax	2	Feb 2 – Mar 15	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hibernians	10	Dec 15 – May 10	1 in 165
2	Valletta	18	Sep 28 – Jun 7	1 in 56
3	Birkirkara	5	Oct 5 – Dec 22	1 in 17
4	Zurrieq	3	May 24 – Jun 7	1 in 12
5	Sliema Wanderers	8	Dec 15 – Apr 19	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Birkirkara	6	Apr 26 – Jun 7	1 in 28
2	Mqabba	17	Oct 5 – Jun 7	1 in 21
3	Zurrieq	9	Sep 28 – Mar 29	1 in 19
4	Hibernians	7	Sep 28 – Feb 2	1 in 12
5	Rabat Ajax	5	Feb 2 – Apr 12	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Valletta	1520	33	+78	9	7.9	+1.1
Floriana	1347	25	+124	8	5.1	+2.9
Sliema Wanderers	1295	25	-31	6	6.8	-0.8
Hamrun Spartans	1324	23	+64	7	6.0	+1.0
Rabat Ajax	1208	19	-5	6	6.1	-0.1
Hibernians	1146	19	-105	5	5.8	-0.8
Birkirkara	1102	16	-94	3	5.4	-2.4
Zurrieq	986	8	+66	4	2.7	+1.3
St. Andrews	859	7	-58	1	2.4	-1.4
Mqabba	790	5	-40	1	1.7	-0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BIR	FLO	HS	HIB	MQA	RA	SW	SA	VAL	ZUR
Birkirkara	—	1-1-0 1.64	0-0-2 1.60	0-1-1 2.47	0-2-0 4.05	0-2-0 2.20	0-1-1 1.82	2-0-0 3.34	0-0-2 2.21	1-1-0 4.04
Floriana	0-1-1 3.83	—	2-0-0 2.10	1-1-0 3.13	2-0-0 4.63	0-2-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.56	2-0-0 3.73	0-1-1 1.92	2-0-0 4.25
Hamrun Spartans	2-0-0 3.87	0-0-2 3.36	—	1-0-1 3.87	2-0-0 4.83	1-1-0 3.26	0-1-1 3.78	2-0-0 4.54	0-1-1 2.21	2-0-0 4.33
Hibernians	1-1-0 3.00	0-1-1 2.34	1-0-1 1.60	—	1-1-0 3.78	0-1-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.15	2-0-0 4.00	0-1-1 1.19	1-1-0 3.94
Mqabba	0-2-0 1.44	0-0-2 0.88	0-0-2 0.69	0-1-1 1.69	—	0-0-2 1.06	0-0-2 0.81	0-0-2 3.03	0-0-2 1.10	1-0-1 1.95
Rabat Ajax	0-2-0 3.26	0-2-0 2.56	0-1-1 2.21	1-1-0 3.20	2-0-0 4.42	—	1-0-1 2.41	2-0-0 4.11	0-0-2 2.51	0-1-1 4.53
Sliema Wanderers	1-1-0 3.65	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 1.69	1-1-0 3.32	2-0-0 4.69	1-0-1 3.06	—	2-0-0 4.11	0-0-2 2.04	2-0-0 3.75
St. Andrews	0-0-2 2.13	0-0-2 1.74	0-0-2 0.95	0-0-2 1.47	2-0-0 2.44	0-0-2 1.37	0-0-2 1.37	—	0-0-2 0.67	1-1-0 2.45
Valletta	2-0-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.54	1-1-0 3.26	1-1-0 4.29	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 2.95	2-0-0 3.43	2-0-0 4.86	—	2-0-0 4.71
Zurrieq	0-1-1 1.43	0-0-2 1.23	0-0-2 1.15	0-1-1 1.54	1-0-1 3.52	1-1-0 0.97	0-0-2 1.73	0-1-1 3.02	0-0-2 0.80	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.66	+5.4
Allowed	0.92	-6.3
Differential	0.96	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	7.78%	7.22%	2.22%	0.56%	3.33%	27.78%
1	7.78%	12.22%	2.78%	5.00%	2.22%	2.78%	32.78%
2	7.22%	2.78%	4.44%	1.67%	1.11%	—	17.22%
3	2.22%	5.00%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	—	10.56%
4	0.56%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	0.56%	5.00%
5+	3.33%	2.78%	—	—	0.56%	—	6.67%
Total	27.78%	32.78%	17.22%	10.56%	5.00%	6.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	1.54	+0.00
SD	1.52	1.52	2.30
CV	0.99	0.99	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	55.56%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.56	-0.44
SD	0.68	1.62	1.62
CV	0.61	1.04	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	55.56%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	0.67	+0.78
SD	1.25	0.84	1.56
CV	0.86	1.26	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.89	1.56	+1.33
SD	1.97	1.34	2.35
CV	0.68	0.86	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
1	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	44.44%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.28	-0.17
SD	1.13	1.36	1.69
CV	1.02	1.07	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	55.56%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.61	2.44	-1.83
SD	0.85	1.72	1.98
CV	1.39	0.70	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	22.22%	—	22.22%	—	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	27.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.39	+0.39
SD	1.48	1.20	2.12
CV	0.83	0.86	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	55.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.00	+1.06
SD	1.98	0.91	1.98
CV	0.97	0.91	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	5.56%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	2.50	-1.72
SD	0.88	1.86	2.27
CV	1.13	0.74	—
Max	2	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	55.56%	44.44%	—	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	0.44	+2.11
SD	1.62	0.51	1.71
CV	0.63	1.15	—
Max	6	1	+6
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	44.44%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.78%	38.89%	11.11%	—	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	2.61	-1.50
SD	1.23	1.72	1.95
CV	1.11	0.66	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valletta	1520	33	24.71	+8.29	100.0%	17	20	23	25	27	29	31
Floriana	1347	25	20.99	+4.01	92.0%	12	14	19	21	23	26	28
Hamrun Spartans	1324	23	24.31	-1.31	37.0%	17	18	22	25	26	29	30
Sliema Wanderers	1295	25	21.05	+3.95	93.0%	12	16	19	21	23	26	30
Rabat Ajax	1208	19	20.74	-1.74	32.0%	13	15	19	21	23	26	31
Hibernians	1146	19	18.27	+0.73	66.0%	10	12	16	18	21	24	27
Birkirkara	1102	16	16.91	-0.91	44.0%	8	11	14	17	19	22	24
St. Andrews	934	7	11.03	-4.03	11.0%	3	6	9	11	13	16	21
Zurrieq	911	8	12.30	-4.30	9.0%	3	7	10	12	15	17	20
Mqabba	790	5	9.69	-4.69	7.0%	3	5	7	10	12	14	16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+8.89%

Strong Edge

42.22%24.44%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.

162 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.07 goals

Neutral

-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.0

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

45%

Valletta, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.44/gm

Runaway

00.130.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.53 * Some Luck: 2.53 to 3.79 * Lucky: 3.79 to 5.05 * Wild Swing: 5.05 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.96 * Close: 0.96 to 1.43 * Off: 1.43 to 1.91 * Way Off: 1.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.04 points

Lucky

03.168

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.40

Pinpoint

01.192.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

100.00%

Valletta

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

7.00%

Mqabba

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Top-Heavy

00.20.270.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 229.34

2.47

Wide Separation

0.951.6522.253

Interquartile Edge

85%

Wide Edge

50%72.5%79%84%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

50%

Few

0%49%100%

Blowouts

Expected

22%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.49

Notable Separation

00.420.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.80

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.12

Weak Carryover

00.570.741

Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

As Expected

0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.64

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.08

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.137

Well Within Noise

00.1650.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

St. Andrews 2

Zurrieq 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valletta	45.00%	27.00%	13.00%	11.00%	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Sliema Wanderers	6.00%	19.00%	18.00%	23.00%	14.00%	13.00%	6.00%	—	1.00%	—
Floriana	7.00%	13.00%	18.00%	22.00%	23.00%	9.00%	5.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
Hamrun Spartans	34.00%	29.00%	20.00%	6.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Rabat Ajax	5.00%	8.00%	21.00%	16.00%	23.00%	16.00%	8.00%	3.00%	—	—
Hibernians	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	13.00%	17.00%	29.00%	22.00%	7.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Birkirkara	2.00%	1.00%	4.00%	8.00%	12.00%	21.00%	32.00%	14.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Zurrieq	—	—	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	35.00%	35.00%	12.00%
St. Andrews	—	—	—	1.00%	—	3.00%	9.00%	26.00%	29.00%	32.00%
Mqabba	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	14.00%	29.00%	52.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Hamrun Spartans	100%	—
Rabat Ajax	100%	—
Valletta	100%	—
Sliema Wanderers	99.00%	1.00%
Floriana	98.00%	2.00%
Hibernians	98.00%	2.00%
Birkirkara	94.00%	6.00%
Zurrieq	53.00%	47.00%
St. Andrews	39.00%	61.00%
Mqabba	19.00%	81.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1991-09-28	Valletta	L 1-3	48.1	1163	1112	47.19%	26.74%	26.07%	+0.50	-59.1	0
1991-09-28	@ Birkirkara	W 3-1	48.1	1112	1163	26.07%	26.74%	47.19%	-0.50	+59.1	2
1991-09-28	St. Andrews	W 2-0	36.9	1176	1125	47.23%	26.74%	26.02%	+0.51	+43.2	2
1991-09-28	@ Floriana	L 0-2	36.9	1125	1176	26.02%	26.74%	47.23%	-0.51	-43.2	0
1991-09-28	Zurrieq	W 3-0	45.6	954	1239	10.83%	25.87%	63.30%	-1.57	+131.6	2
1991-09-28	@ Mqabba	L 0-3	45.6	1239	954	63.30%	25.87%	10.83%	+1.57	-131.6	0
1991-09-28	Hibernians	W 1-0	38.3	1265	1172	51.99%	26.64%	21.37%	+0.76	+19.6	2
1991-09-28	@ Rabat Ajax	L 0-1	38.3	1172	1265	21.37%	26.64%	51.99%	-0.76	-19.6	0
1991-09-28	Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	52.2	1089	1282	17.42%	26.40%	56.18%	-1.00	+6.7	1
1991-09-28	@ Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	52.2	1282	1089	56.18%	26.40%	17.42%	+1.00	-6.7	1
1991-10-05	St. Andrews	W 2-1	45.2	1104	1082	43.60%	26.79%	29.62%	+0.33	+23.8	2
1991-10-05	@ Birkirkara	L 1-2	45.2	1082	1104	29.62%	26.79%	43.60%	-0.33	-23.8	0
1991-10-05	Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	44.2	1219	1275	32.81%	26.79%	40.40%	-0.15	+31.8	4
1991-10-05	@ Floriana	L 0-1	44.2	1275	1219	40.40%	26.79%	32.81%	+0.15	-31.9	1
1991-10-05	Mqabba	D 1-1	52.0	1153	1086	49.13%	26.71%	24.17%	+0.60	-4.1	1
1991-10-05	@ Hibernians	D 1-1	52.0	1086	1153	24.17%	26.71%	49.13%	-0.60	+4.1	3
1991-10-05	Zurrieq	W 1-0	41.9	1096	1107	39.15%	26.81%	34.04%	+0.12	+28.0	3
1991-10-05	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	41.9	1107	1096	34.04%	26.81%	39.15%	-0.12	-28.0	0
1991-10-05	Rabat Ajax	W 2-0	43.6	1172	1285	25.54%	26.69%	47.77%	-0.51	+69.0	4
1991-10-05	@ Valletta	L 0-2	43.6	1285	1172	47.77%	26.69%	25.54%	+0.51	-69.0	2
1991-11-10	Birkirkara	D 0-0	48.4	1251	1128	55.09%	26.53%	18.38%	+0.95	-7.0	5
1991-11-10	@ Floriana	D 0-0	48.4	1128	1251	18.38%	26.53%	55.09%	-0.95	+7.0	3
1991-11-10	Zurrieq	W 5-1	34.2	1243	1079	58.71%	26.35%	14.94%	+1.21	+43.6	3
1991-11-10	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-5	34.2	1079	1243	14.94%	26.35%	58.71%	-1.21	-43.6	0
1991-11-10	St. Andrews	W 2-0	33.5	1216	1058	58.17%	26.38%	15.45%	+1.16	+28.4	4
1991-11-10	@ Rabat Ajax	L 0-2	33.5	1058	1216	15.45%	26.38%	58.17%	-1.16	-28.4	0
1991-11-10	Hibernians	W 1-0	42.6	1124	1149	37.22%	26.81%	35.97%	+0.04	+29.2	5
1991-11-10	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	42.6	1149	1124	35.97%	26.81%	37.22%	-0.04	-29.2	1
1991-11-10	Mqabba	W 4-1	36.3	1241	1090	57.56%	26.42%	16.02%	+1.12	+35.8	6
1991-11-10	@ Valletta	L 1-4	36.3	1090	1241	16.02%	26.42%	57.56%	-1.12	-35.8	3
1991-11-24	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	52.2	1135	1244	25.97%	26.70%	47.33%	-0.48	+3.5	4
1991-11-24	@ Birkirkara	D 1-1	52.2	1244	1135	47.33%	26.70%	25.97%	+0.48	-3.5	5
1991-11-24	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-1	37.7	1119	1287	19.73%	26.51%	53.76%	-0.84	-18.4	1
1991-11-24	@ Hibernians	W 1-0	37.7	1287	1119	53.76%	26.51%	19.73%	+0.84	+18.4	5
1991-11-24	Mqabba	W 1-0	42.5	1030	1054	37.23%	26.81%	35.96%	+0.04	+29.2	2
1991-11-24	@ St. Andrews	L 0-1	42.5	1054	1030	35.96%	26.81%	37.23%	-0.04	-29.2	3
1991-11-24	Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	42.0	1276	1153	55.08%	26.53%	18.39%	+0.95	+16.4	8
1991-11-24	@ Valletta	L 1-2	42.0	1153	1276	18.39%	26.53%	55.08%	-0.95	-16.4	5
1991-11-24	Floriana	L 0-2	33.7	1035	1244	16.05%	26.32%	57.62%	-1.10	-29.3	0
1991-11-24	@ Zurrieq	W 2-0	33.7	1244	1035	57.62%	26.32%	16.05%	+1.10	+29.3	7
1991-12-15	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	52.5	1273	1241	44.96%	26.77%	28.27%	+0.39	-2.7	8
1991-12-15	@ Floriana	D 1-1	52.5	1241	1273	28.27%	26.77%	44.96%	-0.39	+2.7	6
1991-12-15	Valletta	D 1-1	52.9	1305	1293	42.34%	26.80%	30.87%	+0.27	-1.8	6
1991-12-15	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	52.9	1293	1305	30.87%	26.80%	42.34%	-0.27	+1.8	9
1991-12-15	Birkirkara	D 1-1	52.0	1025	1138	25.54%	26.69%	47.77%	-0.51	+3.6	4
1991-12-15	@ Mqabba	D 1-1	52.0	1138	1025	47.77%	26.69%	25.54%	+0.51	-3.6	5
1991-12-15	St. Andrews	W 7-1	35.1	1137	1059	50.40%	26.68%	22.92%	+0.67	+89.6	7
1991-12-15	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-7	35.1	1059	1137	22.92%	26.68%	50.40%	-0.67	-89.6	2
1991-12-15	Hibernians	D 2-2	56.9	1006	1101	27.71%	26.73%	45.55%	-0.40	+2.1	1
1991-12-15	@ Zurrieq	D 2-2	56.9	1101	1006	45.55%	26.73%	27.71%	+0.40	-2.1	2
1991-12-22	Hibernians	D 0-0	48.4	1270	1099	59.30%	26.32%	14.39%	+1.25	-8.9	9
1991-12-22	@ Floriana	D 0-0	48.4	1099	1270	14.39%	26.32%	59.30%	-1.25	+8.9	3
1991-12-22	St. Andrews	W 4-0	27.2	1303	969	68.76%	25.16%	6.08%	+2.26	+23.3	8
1991-12-22	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-4	27.2	969	1303	6.08%	25.16%	68.76%	-2.26	-23.3	2
1991-12-22	Mqabba	W 3-0	30.1	1243	1029	62.44%	26.07%	11.49%	+1.52	+32.0	8
1991-12-22	@ Rabat Ajax	L 0-3	30.1	1029	1243	11.49%	26.07%	62.44%	-1.52	-32.0	4
1991-12-22	Birkirkara	D 0-0	48.3	1226	1134	51.92%	26.64%	21.44%	+0.76	-5.7	8
1991-12-22	@ Sliema Wanderers	D 0-0	48.3	1134	1226	21.44%	26.64%	51.92%	-0.76	+5.7	6
1991-12-22	Zurrieq	W 2-0	31.0	1295	1008	66.59%	25.56%	7.84%	+1.96	+15.6	11
1991-12-22	@ Valletta	L 0-2	31.0	1008	1295	7.84%	25.56%	66.59%	-1.96	-15.6	1
1992-02-02	Mqabba	W 3-0	29.2	1262	997	65.47%	25.73%	8.80%	+1.83	+25.2	11
1992-02-02	@ Floriana	L 0-3	29.2	997	1262	8.80%	25.73%	65.47%	-1.83	-25.2	4
1992-02-02	Birkirkara	W 5-1	33.9	1327	1140	60.45%	26.24%	13.31%	+1.34	+39.6	10
1992-02-02	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-5	33.9	1140	1327	13.31%	26.24%	60.45%	-1.34	-39.6	6
1992-02-02	Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	46.4	1221	1275	33.01%	26.79%	40.20%	-0.15	+51.8	10
1992-02-02	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-3	46.4	1275	1221	40.20%	26.79%	33.01%	+0.15	-51.8	8
1992-02-02	Zurrieq	W 2-0	40.7	946	993	34.10%	26.80%	39.10%	-0.10	+58.6	4
1992-02-02	@ St. Andrews	L 0-2	40.7	993	946	39.10%	26.80%	34.10%	+0.10	-58.6	1
1992-02-02	Hibernians	D 0-0	48.6	1310	1108	61.61%	26.15%	12.25%	+1.44	-9.9	12
1992-02-02	@ Valletta	D 0-0	48.6	1108	1310	12.25%	26.15%	61.61%	-1.44	+9.9	4
1992-03-15	Zurrieq	W 1-0	36.0	1101	934	58.91%	26.34%	14.75%	+1.22	+14.5	8
1992-03-15	@ Birkirkara	L 0-1	36.0	934	1101	14.75%	26.34%	58.91%	-1.22	-14.5	1
1992-03-15	Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	39.6	1366	1223	56.89%	26.45%	16.66%	+1.07	+26.2	12
1992-03-15	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-3	39.6	1223	1366	16.66%	26.45%	56.89%	-1.07	-26.2	8
1992-03-15	St. Andrews	W 3-2	46.7	1118	1005	54.11%	26.57%	19.32%	+0.89	+16.2	6
1992-03-15	@ Hibernians	L 2-3	46.7	1005	1118	19.32%	26.57%	54.11%	-0.89	-16.2	4
1992-03-15	Mqabba	W 1-0	33.5	1273	971	67.30%	25.45%	7.25%	+2.05	+7.7	12
1992-03-15	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	33.5	971	1273	7.25%	25.45%	67.30%	-2.05	-7.7	4
1992-03-15	Floriana	W 2-0	39.0	1300	1287	42.49%	26.80%	30.71%	+0.27	+49.0	14
1992-03-15	@ Valletta	L 0-2	39.0	1287	1300	30.71%	26.80%	42.49%	-0.27	-49.0	11
1992-03-29	Mqabba	W 4-2	38.3	1392	964	72.10%	24.23%	3.67%	+2.84	+5.8	14
1992-03-29	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 2-4	38.3	964	1392	3.67%	24.23%	72.10%	-2.84	-5.8	4
1992-03-29	Birkirkara	W 2-1	45.3	1134	1115	43.19%	26.79%	30.01%	+0.31	+24.1	8
1992-03-29	@ Hibernians	L 1-2	45.3	1115	1134	30.01%	26.79%	43.19%	-0.31	-24.1	8
1992-03-29	Floriana	W 1-0	40.3	1280	1238	46.21%	26.76%	27.03%	+0.45	+23.6	14
1992-03-29	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	40.3	1238	1280	27.03%	26.76%	46.21%	-0.45	-23.6	11
1992-03-29	St. Andrews	W 1-0	32.8	1349	988	69.82%	24.92%	5.27%	+2.42	+5.7	16
1992-03-29	@ Valletta	L 0-1	32.8	988	1349	5.27%	24.92%	69.82%	-2.42	-5.7	4
1992-03-29	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	52.2	920	1197	11.22%	25.91%	62.87%	-1.52	+9.4	2
1992-03-29	@ Zurrieq	D 1-1	52.2	1197	920	62.87%	25.91%	11.22%	+1.52	-9.4	9
1992-04-05	Sliema Wanderers	L 3-4	61.6	1398	1304	52.18%	26.63%	21.19%	+0.77	-34.6	14
1992-04-05	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 4-3	61.6	1304	1398	21.19%	26.63%	52.18%	-0.77	+34.6	16
1992-04-05	Rabat Ajax	D 0-0	48.2	1158	1188	36.47%	26.81%	36.72%	+0.01	+0.0	9
1992-04-05	@ Hibernians	D 0-0	48.2	1188	1158	36.72%	26.81%	36.47%	-0.01	-0.0	10
1992-04-05	Floriana	L 0-3	31.0	983	1214	14.27%	26.20%	59.53%	-1.24	-38.5	4
1992-04-05	@ St. Andrews	W 3-0	31.0	1214	983	59.53%	26.20%	14.27%	+1.24	+38.5	13
1992-04-05	Birkirkara	W 3-1	36.5	1355	1091	65.42%	25.74%	8.85%	+1.82	+15.1	18
1992-04-05	@ Valletta	L 1-3	36.5	1091	1355	8.85%	25.74%	65.42%	-1.82	-15.1	8
1992-04-05	Mqabba	W 2-1	47.2	929	958	36.58%	26.81%	36.61%	+0.01	+27.9	4
1992-04-05	@ Zurrieq	L 1-2	47.2	958	929	36.61%	26.81%	36.58%	-0.01	-27.9	4
1992-04-12	Floriana	L 0-1	48.8	1364	1253	53.88%	26.58%	19.55%	+0.88	-40.9	14
1992-04-12	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	48.8	1253	1364	19.55%	26.58%	53.88%	-0.88	+40.8	15
1992-04-12	Hibernians	L 0-1	35.9	930	1158	14.53%	26.22%	59.25%	-1.22	-14.3	4
1992-04-12	@ Mqabba	W 1-0	35.9	1158	930	59.25%	26.22%	14.53%	+1.22	+14.3	11
1992-04-12	Valletta	L 1-3	40.0	1188	1370	18.33%	26.45%	55.22%	-0.93	-28.3	10
1992-04-12	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	40.0	1370	1188	55.22%	26.45%	18.33%	+0.93	+28.3	20
1992-04-12	Birkirkara	L 0-2	35.9	944	1076	23.41%	26.64%	49.95%	-0.62	-39.7	4
1992-04-12	@ St. Andrews	W 2-0	35.9	1076	944	49.95%	26.64%	23.41%	+0.62	+39.7	10
1992-04-12	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-5	31.3	957	1338	6.46%	25.08%	68.45%	-2.17	-20.5	4
1992-04-12	@ Zurrieq	W 5-1	31.3	1338	957	68.45%	25.08%	6.46%	+2.17	+20.5	18
1992-04-19	Floriana	W 2-0	45.5	1116	1294	18.72%	26.47%	54.81%	-0.91	+78.3	12
1992-04-19	@ Birkirkara	L 0-2	45.5	1294	1116	54.81%	26.47%	18.72%	+0.91	-78.2	15
1992-04-19	Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	52.6	1172	1359	17.93%	26.43%	55.64%	-0.96	+6.5	12
1992-04-19	@ Hibernians	D 1-1	52.6	1359	1172	55.64%	26.43%	17.93%	+0.96	-6.5	19
1992-04-19	Valletta	L 0-5	26.0	916	1398	3.78%	24.06%	72.16%	-2.79	-17.9	4
1992-04-19	@ Mqabba	W 5-0	26.0	1398	916	72.16%	24.06%	3.78%	+2.79	+17.9	22
1992-04-19	Rabat Ajax	L 0-5	29.2	904	1160	12.63%	26.06%	61.31%	-1.38	-55.8	4
1992-04-19	@ St. Andrews	W 5-0	29.2	1160	904	61.31%	26.06%	12.63%	+1.38	+55.8	12
1992-04-19	Hamrun Spartans	L 4-6	42.5	936	1323	6.30%	25.04%	68.66%	-2.20	-8.9	4
1992-04-19	@ Zurrieq	W 6-4	42.5	1323	936	68.66%	25.04%	6.30%	+2.20	+8.9	16
1992-04-26	Zurrieq	W 3-2	42.9	1215	927	66.66%	25.55%	7.78%	+1.97	+7.3	17
1992-04-26	@ Floriana	L 2-3	42.9	927	1215	7.78%	25.55%	66.66%	-1.97	-7.4	4
1992-04-26	Hibernians	L 1-3	51.6	1332	1179	57.76%	26.41%	15.83%	+1.14	-71.4	16
1992-04-26	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 3-1	51.6	1179	1332	15.83%	26.41%	57.76%	-1.14	+71.5	14
1992-04-26	St. Andrews	L 0-2	43.1	898	849	47.05%	26.75%	26.21%	+0.50	-68.1	4
1992-04-26	@ Mqabba	W 2-0	43.1	849	898	26.21%	26.75%	47.05%	-0.50	+68.1	6
1992-04-26	Birkirkara	D 1-1	52.2	1215	1194	43.53%	26.79%	29.69%	+0.32	-2.2	13
1992-04-26	@ Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	52.2	1194	1215	29.69%	26.79%	43.53%	-0.32	+2.2	13
1992-04-26	Valletta	L 0-1	44.2	1352	1416	31.76%	26.78%	41.46%	-0.20	-26.6	19
1992-04-26	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	44.2	1416	1352	41.46%	26.78%	31.76%	+0.20	+26.6	24
1992-05-10	Mqabba	D 0-0	48.7	1196	830	70.02%	24.86%	5.12%	+2.45	-13.9	14
1992-05-10	@ Birkirkara	D 0-0	48.7	830	1196	5.12%	24.86%	70.02%	-2.45	+13.9	5
1992-05-10	Zurrieq	W 2-0	30.4	1250	920	68.60%	25.20%	6.21%	+2.23	+12.5	16
1992-05-10	@ Hibernians	L 0-2	30.4	920	1250	6.21%	25.20%	68.60%	-2.23	-12.5	4
1992-05-10	Floriana	D 2-2	57.1	1213	1223	39.35%	26.81%	33.84%	+0.13	-0.6	14
1992-05-10	@ Rabat Ajax	D 2-2	57.1	1223	1213	33.84%	26.81%	39.35%	-0.13	+0.6	18
1992-05-10	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	37.4	917	1326	5.59%	24.83%	69.59%	-2.33	-5.6	6
1992-05-10	@ St. Andrews	W 2-1	37.4	1326	917	69.59%	24.83%	5.59%	+2.33	+5.6	21
1992-05-10	Hamrun Spartans	W 3-1	39.7	1443	1260	60.16%	26.26%	13.58%	+1.32	+22.0	26
1992-05-10	@ Valletta	L 1-3	39.7	1260	1443	13.58%	26.26%	60.16%	-1.32	-22.1	16
1992-05-17	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-4	38.4	1182	1331	21.55%	26.58%	51.87%	-0.73	-45.5	14
1992-05-17	@ Birkirkara	W 4-1	38.4	1331	1182	51.87%	26.58%	21.55%	+0.73	+45.6	23
1992-05-17	Floriana	L 1-4	45.7	1263	1223	45.85%	26.76%	27.39%	+0.44	-81.6	16
1992-05-17	@ Hibernians	W 4-1	45.7	1223	1263	27.39%	26.76%	45.85%	-0.44	+81.6	20
1992-05-17	Rabat Ajax	L 1-5	31.3	844	1212	6.92%	25.20%	67.88%	-2.09	-21.8	5
1992-05-17	@ Mqabba	W 5-1	31.3	1212	844	67.88%	25.20%	6.92%	+2.09	+21.8	16
1992-05-17	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-5	27.8	911	1238	8.65%	25.55%	65.81%	-1.83	-39.8	6
1992-05-17	@ St. Andrews	W 5-0	27.8	1238	911	65.81%	25.55%	8.65%	+1.83	+39.8	18
1992-05-17	Valletta	L 0-6	25.8	908	1465	2.54%	23.19%	74.27%	-3.25	-14.1	4
1992-05-17	@ Zurrieq	W 6-0	25.8	1465	908	74.27%	23.19%	2.54%	+3.25	+14.1	28
1992-05-24	Hamrun Spartans	L 2-4	44.8	1137	1278	22.38%	26.61%	51.01%	-0.68	-29.7	14
1992-05-24	@ Birkirkara	W 4-2	44.8	1278	1137	51.01%	26.61%	22.38%	+0.68	+29.7	20
1992-05-24	Valletta	L 0-5	29.8	1181	1479	10.10%	25.77%	64.13%	-1.65	-45.8	16
1992-05-24	@ Hibernians	W 5-0	29.8	1479	1181	64.13%	25.77%	10.10%	+1.65	+45.8	30
1992-05-24	Floriana	L 0-2	29.3	822	1305	3.77%	24.06%	72.17%	-2.79	-7.6	5
1992-05-24	@ Mqabba	W 2-0	29.3	1305	822	72.17%	24.06%	3.77%	+2.79	+7.6	22
1992-05-24	Sliema Wanderers	W 3-1	50.2	1234	1377	22.23%	26.60%	51.16%	-0.69	+63.5	18
1992-05-24	@ Rabat Ajax	L 1-3	50.2	1377	1234	51.16%	26.60%	22.23%	+0.69	-63.5	23
1992-05-24	St. Andrews	D 2-2	56.9	893	871	43.60%	26.79%	29.61%	+0.33	-1.7	5
1992-05-24	@ Zurrieq	D 2-2	56.9	871	893	29.61%	26.79%	43.60%	-0.33	+1.7	7
1992-05-31	Valletta	D 1-1	56.6	1312	1525	15.75%	26.30%	57.94%	-1.12	+7.4	23
1992-05-31	@ Floriana	D 1-1	56.6	1525	1312	57.94%	26.30%	15.75%	+1.12	-7.4	31
1992-05-31	Sliema Wanderers	L 1-4	31.7	814	1313	3.46%	23.88%	72.66%	-2.89	-8.6	5
1992-05-31	@ Mqabba	W 4-1	31.7	1313	814	72.66%	23.88%	3.46%	+2.89	+8.5	25
1992-05-31	Hamrun Spartans	D 3-3	61.8	1298	1308	39.32%	26.81%	33.87%	+0.13	-0.5	19
1992-05-31	@ Rabat Ajax	D 3-3	61.8	1308	1298	33.87%	26.81%	39.32%	-0.13	+0.5	21
1992-05-31	Hibernians	L 2-3	44.4	873	1135	12.16%	26.01%	61.83%	-1.43	-10.9	7
1992-05-31	@ St. Andrews	W 3-2	44.4	1135	873	61.83%	26.01%	12.16%	+1.43	+10.9	18
1992-05-31	Birkirkara	D 2-2	57.0	892	1107	15.51%	26.29%	58.20%	-1.14	+5.6	6
1992-05-31	@ Zurrieq	D 2-2	57.0	1107	892	58.20%	26.29%	15.51%	+1.14	-5.6	15
1992-06-07	Hibernians	D 1-1	52.0	1101	1146	34.33%	26.80%	38.87%	-0.09	+0.7	16
1992-06-07	@ Birkirkara	D 1-1	52.0	1146	1101	38.87%	26.80%	34.33%	+0.09	-0.7	19
1992-06-07	Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	42.8	1320	1322	40.37%	26.81%	32.82%	+0.18	+27.3	25
1992-06-07	@ Floriana	L 0-1	42.8	1322	1320	32.82%	26.81%	40.37%	-0.18	-27.3	25
1992-06-07	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-5	25.8	806	1308	3.40%	23.84%	72.76%	-2.91	-16.0	5
1992-06-07	@ Mqabba	W 5-0	25.8	1308	806	72.76%	23.84%	3.40%	+2.91	+16.0	23
1992-06-07	Zurrieq	L 1-3	54.6	1297	897	71.20%	24.53%	4.27%	+2.66	-89.0	19
1992-06-07	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	54.6	897	1297	4.27%	24.53%	71.20%	-2.66	+89.0	8
1992-06-07	Valletta	L 0-2	28.1	862	1517	1.52%	21.93%	76.55%	-3.86	-3.0	7
1992-06-07	@ St. Andrews	W 2-0	28.1	1517	862	76.55%	21.93%	1.52%	+3.86	+3.0	33

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
1992-06-14	Zurrieq	W 2-0	44.7	859	986	20.82%	26.59%	52.60%	-0.79	+75.3	1-0
1992-06-14	@ St. Andrews	L 0-2	44.7	986	859	52.60%	26.59%	20.82%	+0.79	-75.3	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1992-06-07	4.27%	Zurrieq	897	3	@ Rabat Ajax	1297	1
2	1991-09-28	10.83%	@ Mqabba	954	3	Zurrieq	1239	0
3	1992-04-26	15.83%	Hibernians	1179	3	@ Hamrun Spartans	1332	1
4	1992-04-19	18.72%	@ Birkirkara	1116	2	Floriana	1294	0
5	1992-04-12	19.55%	Floriana	1253	1	@ Hamrun Spartans	1364	0
6	1992-06-14 *	20.82%	@ St. Andrews	859	2	Zurrieq	986	0
7	1992-04-05	21.19%	Sliema Wanderers	1304	4	@ Hamrun Spartans	1398	3
8	1992-05-24	22.23%	@ Rabat Ajax	1234	3	Sliema Wanderers	1377	1
9	1991-10-05	25.54%	@ Valletta	1172	2	Rabat Ajax	1285	0
10	1991-09-28	26.07%	Valletta	1112	3	@ Birkirkara	1163	1
11	1992-04-26	26.21%	St. Andrews	849	2	@ Mqabba	898	0
12	1992-05-17	27.39%	Floriana	1223	4	@ Hibernians	1263	1
13	1991-10-05	32.81%	@ Floriana	1219	1	Hamrun Spartans	1275	0
14	1992-02-02	33.01%	@ Sliema Wanderers	1221	3	Rabat Ajax	1275	1
15	1992-02-02	34.10%	@ St. Andrews	946	2	Zurrieq	993	0
16	1992-04-05	36.58%	@ Zurrieq	929	2	Mqabba	958	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1991-09-28	131.63	@ Mqabba	3	954	10.83%	Zurrieq	0	1239	63.30%	25.87%
2	1991-12-15	89.59	@ Sliema Wanderers	7	1137	50.40%	St. Andrews	1	1059	22.92%	26.68%
3	1992-06-07	89.00	Zurrieq	3	897	4.27%	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1297	71.20%	24.53%
4	1992-05-17	81.56	Floriana	4	1223	27.39%	@ Hibernians	1	1263	45.85%	26.76%
5	1992-04-19	78.26	@ Birkirkara	2	1116	18.72%	Floriana	0	1294	54.81%	26.47%
6	1992-06-14 *	75.27	@ St. Andrews	2	859	20.82%	Zurrieq	0	986	52.60%	26.59%
7	1992-04-26	71.45	Hibernians	3	1179	15.83%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1332	57.76%	26.41%
8	1991-10-05	68.97	@ Valletta	2	1172	25.54%	Rabat Ajax	0	1285	47.77%	26.69%
9	1992-04-26	68.09	St. Andrews	2	849	26.21%	@ Mqabba	0	898	47.05%	26.75%
10	1992-05-24	63.52	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1234	22.23%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1377	51.16%	26.60%
11	1991-09-28	59.12	Valletta	3	1112	26.07%	@ Birkirkara	1	1163	47.19%	26.74%
12	1992-02-02	58.57	@ St. Andrews	2	946	34.10%	Zurrieq	0	993	39.10%	26.80%
13	1992-04-19	55.78	Rabat Ajax	5	1160	61.31%	@ St. Andrews	0	904	12.63%	26.06%
14	1992-02-02	51.81	@ Sliema Wanderers	3	1221	33.01%	Rabat Ajax	1	1275	40.20%	26.79%
15	1992-03-15	48.96	@ Valletta	2	1300	42.49%	Floriana	0	1287	30.71%	26.80%
16	1992-05-24	45.77	Valletta	5	1479	64.13%	@ Hibernians	0	1181	10.10%	25.77%
17	1992-05-17	45.55	Sliema Wanderers	4	1331	51.87%	@ Birkirkara	1	1182	21.55%	26.58%
18	1991-11-10	43.63	@ Hamrun Spartans	5	1243	58.71%	Zurrieq	1	1079	14.94%	26.35%
19	1991-09-28	43.15	@ Floriana	2	1176	47.23%	St. Andrews	0	1125	26.02%	26.74%
20	1992-04-12	40.86	Floriana	1	1253	19.55%	@ Hamrun Spartans	0	1364	53.88%	26.58%
21	1992-05-17	39.76	Hamrun Spartans	5	1238	65.81%	@ St. Andrews	0	911	8.65%	25.55%
22	1992-04-12	39.72	Birkirkara	2	1076	49.95%	@ St. Andrews	0	944	23.41%	26.64%
23	1992-02-02	39.56	@ Hamrun Spartans	5	1327	60.45%	Birkirkara	1	1140	13.31%	26.24%
24	1992-04-05	38.47	Floriana	3	1214	59.53%	@ St. Andrews	0	983	14.27%	26.20%
25	1991-11-10	35.84	@ Valletta	4	1241	57.56%	Mqabba	1	1090	16.02%	26.42%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1992-05-31	61.8	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1298	39.32%	Hamrun Spartans	3	1308	33.87%	26.81%
2	1992-04-05	61.6	Sliema Wanderers	4	1304	21.19%	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1398	52.18%	26.63%
3	1992-05-10	57.1	@ Rabat Ajax	2	1213	39.35%	Floriana	2	1223	33.84%	26.81%
4	1992-05-31	57.0	@ Zurrieq	2	892	15.51%	Birkirkara	2	1107	58.20%	26.29%
5	1991-12-15	56.9	@ Zurrieq	2	1006	27.71%	Hibernians	2	1101	45.55%	26.73%
6	1992-05-24	56.9	@ Zurrieq	2	893	43.60%	St. Andrews	2	871	29.61%	26.79%
7	1992-05-31	56.6	@ Floriana	1	1312	15.75%	Valletta	1	1525	57.94%	26.30%
8	1992-06-07	54.6	Zurrieq	3	897	4.27%	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1297	71.20%	24.53%
9	1991-12-15	52.9	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1305	42.34%	Valletta	1	1293	30.87%	26.80%
10	1992-04-19	52.6	@ Hibernians	1	1172	17.93%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1359	55.64%	26.43%
11	1991-12-15	52.5	@ Floriana	1	1273	44.96%	Rabat Ajax	1	1241	28.27%	26.77%
12	1991-09-28	52.2	@ Sliema Wanderers	1	1089	17.42%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1282	56.18%	26.40%
13	1991-11-24	52.2	@ Birkirkara	1	1135	25.97%	Rabat Ajax	1	1244	47.33%	26.70%
14	1992-03-29	52.2	@ Zurrieq	1	920	11.22%	Rabat Ajax	1	1197	62.87%	25.91%
15	1992-04-26	52.2	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1215	43.53%	Birkirkara	1	1194	29.69%	26.79%
16	1991-10-05	52.0	@ Hibernians	1	1153	49.13%	Mqabba	1	1086	24.17%	26.71%
17	1991-12-15	52.0	@ Mqabba	1	1025	25.54%	Birkirkara	1	1138	47.77%	26.69%
18	1992-06-07	52.0	@ Birkirkara	1	1101	34.33%	Hibernians	1	1146	38.87%	26.80%
19	1992-04-26	51.6	Hibernians	3	1179	15.83%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1332	57.76%	26.41%
20	1992-05-24	50.2	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1234	22.23%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1377	51.16%	26.60%
21	1992-04-12	48.8	Floriana	1	1253	19.55%	@ Hamrun Spartans	0	1364	53.88%	26.58%
22	1992-05-10	48.7	@ Birkirkara	0	1196	70.02%	Mqabba	0	830	5.12%	24.86%
23	1992-02-02	48.6	@ Valletta	0	1310	61.61%	Hibernians	0	1108	12.25%	26.15%
24	1991-11-10	48.4	@ Floriana	0	1251	55.09%	Birkirkara	0	1128	18.38%	26.53%
25	1991-12-22	48.4	@ Floriana	0	1270	59.30%	Hibernians	0	1099	14.39%	26.32%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1992-05-17	25.8	Valletta	6	1465	74.27%	@ Zurrieq	0	908	2.54%	23.19%
2	1992-06-07	25.8	Hamrun Spartans	5	1308	72.76%	@ Mqabba	0	806	3.40%	23.84%
3	1992-04-19	26.0	Valletta	5	1398	72.16%	@ Mqabba	0	916	3.78%	24.06%
4	1991-12-22	27.2	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1303	68.76%	St. Andrews	0	969	6.08%	25.16%
5	1992-05-17	27.8	Hamrun Spartans	5	1238	65.81%	@ St. Andrews	0	911	8.65%	25.55%
6	1992-06-07	28.1	Valletta	2	1517	76.55%	@ St. Andrews	0	862	1.52%	21.93%
7	1992-02-02	29.2	@ Floriana	3	1262	65.47%	Mqabba	0	997	8.80%	25.73%
8	1992-04-19	29.2	Rabat Ajax	5	1160	61.31%	@ St. Andrews	0	904	12.63%	26.06%
9	1992-05-24	29.3	Floriana	2	1305	72.17%	@ Mqabba	0	822	3.77%	24.06%
10	1992-05-24	29.8	Valletta	5	1479	64.13%	@ Hibernians	0	1181	10.10%	25.77%
11	1991-12-22	30.1	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1243	62.44%	Mqabba	0	1029	11.49%	26.07%
12	1992-05-10	30.4	@ Hibernians	2	1250	68.60%	Zurrieq	0	920	6.21%	25.20%
13	1991-12-22	31.0	@ Valletta	2	1295	66.59%	Zurrieq	0	1008	7.84%	25.56%
14	1992-04-05	31.0	Floriana	3	1214	59.53%	@ St. Andrews	0	983	14.27%	26.20%
15	1992-04-12	31.3	Sliema Wanderers	5	1338	68.45%	@ Zurrieq	1	957	6.46%	25.08%
16	1992-05-17	31.3	Rabat Ajax	5	1212	67.88%	@ Mqabba	1	844	6.92%	25.20%
17	1992-05-31	31.7	Sliema Wanderers	4	1313	72.66%	@ Mqabba	1	814	3.46%	23.88%
18	1992-03-29	32.8	@ Valletta	1	1349	69.82%	St. Andrews	0	988	5.27%	24.92%
19	1991-11-10	33.5	@ Rabat Ajax	2	1216	58.17%	St. Andrews	0	1058	15.45%	26.38%
20	1992-03-15	33.5	@ Sliema Wanderers	1	1273	67.30%	Mqabba	0	971	7.25%	25.45%
21	1991-11-24	33.7	Floriana	2	1244	57.62%	@ Zurrieq	0	1035	16.05%	26.32%
22	1992-02-02	33.9	@ Hamrun Spartans	5	1327	60.45%	Birkirkara	1	1140	13.31%	26.24%
23	1991-11-10	34.2	@ Hamrun Spartans	5	1243	58.71%	Zurrieq	1	1079	14.94%	26.35%
24	1991-12-15	35.1	@ Sliema Wanderers	7	1137	50.40%	St. Andrews	1	1059	22.92%	26.68%
25	1992-04-12	35.9	Hibernians	1	1158	59.25%	@ Mqabba	0	930	14.53%	26.22%