1992-93 Maltese Premier League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Floriana

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floriana

5.71 points above expected

29 points · 23.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sliema Wanderers

4.40 points below expected

15 points · 19.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Floriana	18	13	3	2	29	34	13	+21	23.29	+5.71
2	Hamrun Spartans	18	11	2	5	24	46	23	+23	21.91	+2.09
3	Valletta	18	10	4	4	24	32	23	+9	23.08	+0.92
4	St. Andrews	18	9	4	5	22	43	30	+13	17.89	+4.11
5	Hibernians	18	9	3	6	21	45	30	+15	19.70	+1.30
6	Sliema Wanderers	18	6	3	9	15	26	31	-5	19.40	-4.40
7	Rabat Ajax	18	6	3	9	15	30	38	-8	17.31	-2.31
8	Birkirkara	18	5	3	10	13	22	37	-15	16.19	-3.19
9	St. Georges	18	3	4	11	10	18	43	-25	9.99	+0.01
10	Mellieha	18	2	3	13	7	14	42	-28	11.24	-4.24

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Floriana	29	23.29	+5.71
2	St. Andrews	22	17.89	+4.11
3	Hamrun Spartans	24	21.91	+2.09
4	Hibernians	21	19.70	+1.30
5	Valletta	24	23.08	+0.92

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sliema Wanderers	15	19.40	-4.40
2	Mellieha	7	11.24	-4.24
3	Birkirkara	13	16.19	-3.19
4	Rabat Ajax	15	17.31	-2.31
5	St. Georges	10	9.99	+0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Floriana	7	Nov 15 – Feb 7	1 in 64
2	Valletta	7	Dec 13 – Mar 21	1 in 26
3	St. Andrews	4	Jan 31 – Mar 21	1 in 18
4	Hamrun Spartans	4	Dec 13 – Jan 31	1 in 10
5	Hibernians	3	Nov 15 – Dec 13	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mellieha	12	Nov 15 – Apr 11	1 in 291
2	Hibernians	2	Apr 18 – Apr 25	1 in 30
3	Birkirkara	4	Apr 4 – Apr 25	1 in 14
4	Sliema Wanderers	2	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 12
5	Hamrun Spartans	2	Sep 13 – Sep 20	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Floriana	11	Sep 13 – Feb 7	1 in 35
2	St. Andrews	5	Sep 20 – Nov 22	1 in 32
3	Birkirkara	4	Feb 7 – Mar 28	1 in 11
4	St. Georges	3	Mar 28 – Apr 11	1 in 10
5	Hibernians	4	Nov 15 – Dec 20	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mellieha	14	Nov 15 – Apr 25	1 in 34
2	Valletta	3	Sep 13 – Oct 11	1 in 8
3	Birkirkara	5	Nov 22 – Jan 31	1 in 7
4	Floriana	2	Oct 11 – Oct 18	1 in 7
5	Hamrun Spartans	3	Mar 21 – Apr 4	1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Floriana	1456	29	+74	9	6.9	+2.1
Hamrun Spartans	1420	24	+67	7	6.1	+0.9
Valletta	1346	24	-24	6	5.8	+0.2
St. Andrews	1266	22	-14	6	5.2	+0.8
Hibernians	1358	21	+102	6	6.0	+0.0
Rabat Ajax	1167	15	+13	4	4.6	-0.6
Sliema Wanderers	1144	15	-39	2	3.7	-1.7
Birkirkara	1080	13	-68	2	4.0	-2.0
St. Georges	908	10	-63	6	3.8	+2.2
Mellieha	957	7	-49	2	3.9	-1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BIR	FLO	HS	HIB	MEL	RA	SW	SA	SG	VAL
Birkirkara	—	0-0-2 1.54	0-0-2 1.55	1-0-1 2.13	2-0-0 3.55	0-2-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.11	1-0-1 2.80	0-1-1 3.83	0-0-2 1.54
Floriana	2-0-0 4.10	—	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 3.44	1-1-0 4.92	2-0-0 3.56	2-0-0 2.92	0-1-1 3.74	2-0-0 4.10	0-1-1 3.06
Hamrun Spartans	2-0-0 4.08	0-0-2 2.51	—	1-1-0 3.38	1-0-1 3.91	2-0-0 3.68	2-0-0 3.32	0-0-2 3.60	2-0-0 4.27	1-1-0 2.60
Hibernians	1-0-1 3.50	0-0-2 2.19	0-1-1 2.25	—	2-0-0 4.63	2-0-0 3.02	0-1-1 2.70	0-1-1 3.43	2-0-0 4.04	2-0-0 2.16
Mellieha	0-0-2 2.08	0-1-1 0.73	1-0-1 1.72	0-0-2 1.00	—	0-0-2 1.96	1-0-1 1.57	0-0-2 2.56	0-1-1 3.24	0-1-1 1.28
Rabat Ajax	0-2-0 3.18	0-0-2 2.07	0-0-2 1.95	0-0-2 2.60	2-0-0 3.67	—	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 3.23	2-0-0 3.68	1-0-1 1.85
Sliema Wanderers	1-0-1 3.51	0-0-2 2.70	0-0-2 2.31	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 4.06	1-0-1 3.16	—	1-0-1 2.42	1-1-0 4.02	0-1-1 1.84
St. Andrews	1-0-1 2.83	1-1-0 1.89	2-0-0 2.03	1-1-0 2.20	2-0-0 3.07	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-1 3.21	—	0-1-1 4.43	0-0-2 2.72
St. Georges	1-1-0 1.80	0-0-2 1.53	0-0-2 1.37	0-0-2 1.59	1-1-0 2.39	0-0-2 1.95	0-1-1 1.61	1-1-0 1.21	—	0-0-2 0.87
Valletta	2-0-0 4.09	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 3.02	0-0-2 3.47	1-1-0 4.35	1-0-1 3.78	1-1-0 3.78	2-0-0 2.91	2-0-0 4.77	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.65	+5.0
Allowed	0.90	-7.1
Differential	0.92	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	7.78%	2.22%	2.78%	1.11%	1.67%	18.89%
1	7.78%	8.89%	9.44%	3.89%	2.78%	1.67%	34.44%
2	2.22%	9.44%	4.44%	1.67%	3.89%	1.67%	23.33%
3	2.78%	3.89%	1.67%	1.11%	—	0.56%	10.00%
4	1.11%	2.78%	3.89%	—	—	—	7.78%
5+	1.67%	1.67%	1.67%	0.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	18.89%	34.44%	23.33%	10.00%	7.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.72	+0.00
SD	1.45	1.45	2.18
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	50.00%
2	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.06	-0.83
SD	0.81	1.47	1.58
CV	0.66	0.72	—
Max	3	5	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	38.89%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	0.72	+1.17
SD	1.37	0.75	1.34
CV	0.72	1.04	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	33.33%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	1.28	+1.28
SD	1.50	1.02	2.27
CV	0.59	0.80	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	38.89%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	1.67	+0.83
SD	1.72	1.19	2.18
CV	0.69	0.71	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	44.44%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	2.33	-1.56
SD	0.81	1.78	1.89
CV	1.04	0.76	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	2.11	-0.44
SD	1.91	1.64	2.73
CV	1.15	0.78	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	61.11%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.72	-0.28
SD	1.04	1.13	1.53
CV	0.72	0.65	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	27.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.39	1.67	+0.72
SD	1.79	1.03	1.90
CV	0.75	0.62	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.39	-1.39
SD	0.91	1.94	2.06
CV	0.91	0.81	—
Max	3	7	+1
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	33.33%	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.28	+0.50
SD	1.17	1.56	2.09
CV	0.66	1.22	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Floriana	1456	29	23.29	+5.71	96.0%	13	17	21	23	26	29	31
Hamrun Spartans	1420	24	21.91	+2.09	75.0%	15	16	20	22	24	27	29
Hibernians	1358	21	19.70	+1.30	74.0%	13	15	17	20	22	25	28
Valletta	1346	24	23.08	+0.92	66.0%	16	17	21	23	25	29	32
St. Andrews	1266	22	17.89	+4.11	92.0%	10	13	16	18	20	23	28
Rabat Ajax	1167	15	17.31	-2.31	30.0%	9	13	15	17	19	24	26
Sliema Wanderers	1144	15	19.40	-4.40	17.0%	10	13	17	19	22	25	28
Birkirkara	1080	13	16.19	-3.19	19.0%	8	10	14	16	18	21	25
Mellieha	957	7	11.24	-4.24	9.0%	5	7	9	11	13	16	21
St. Georges	908	10	9.99	+0.01	61.0%	3	5	8	10	11	16	20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+20.00%

Strong Edge

51.11%17.78%31.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge

177 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

070.44500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.16 goals

Neutral

-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.0

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

35%

Floriana, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Comfortable

00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.67 * Some Luck: 2.67 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.35 * Wild Swing: 5.35 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.7 * Off: 1.7 to 2.27 * Way Off: 2.27 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.31 points

Some Luck

03.348

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

Pinpoint

01.423

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

96.00%

Floriana

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

9.00%

Mellieha

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Even

00.20.270.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 190.40

1.83

Moderate Separation

0.951.6522.253

Interquartile Edge

82%

Clear Edge

50%72.5%79%84%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

56%

Some Drama

0%51%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Frequent

0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Slight Separation

00.420.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.95

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.73

Some Carryover

00.570.741

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Very Upset-Prone

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.97

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.21

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.116

Well Within Noise

00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Floriana	35.00%	24.00%	19.00%	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Hamrun Spartans	21.00%	19.00%	22.00%	13.00%	10.00%	7.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—	—
Valletta	28.00%	27.00%	15.00%	12.00%	11.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—
St. Andrews	4.00%	4.00%	10.00%	14.00%	14.00%	18.00%	15.00%	15.00%	6.00%	—
Hibernians	3.00%	12.00%	13.00%	29.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Sliema Wanderers	6.00%	8.00%	19.00%	11.00%	17.00%	13.00%	12.00%	11.00%	3.00%	—
Rabat Ajax	3.00%	4.00%	—	7.00%	15.00%	20.00%	27.00%	23.00%	—	1.00%
Birkirkara	—	2.00%	2.00%	6.00%	13.00%	17.00%	18.00%	24.00%	13.00%	5.00%
St. Georges	—	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	2.00%	9.00%	29.00%	58.00%
Mellieha	—	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	5.00%	10.00%	47.00%	36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Hamrun Spartans	100%	—
Valletta	100%	—
Floriana	99.00%	1.00%
Hibernians	99.00%	1.00%
Rabat Ajax	99.00%	1.00%
Sliema Wanderers	97.00%	3.00%
St. Andrews	94.00%	6.00%
Birkirkara	82.00%	18.00%
Mellieha	17.00%	83.00%
St. Georges	13.00%	87.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1992-09-13	St. Andrews	W 3-2	43.7	1172	1097	62.47%	18.69%	18.85%	+0.83	+8.4	2
1992-09-13	@ Birkirkara	L 2-3	43.7	1097	1172	18.85%	18.69%	62.47%	-0.83	-8.4	0
1992-09-13	Hamrun Spartans	W 2-1	46.0	1159	1277	38.85%	18.84%	42.31%	-0.27	+17.7	2
1992-09-13	@ Mellieha	L 1-2	46.0	1277	1159	42.31%	18.84%	38.85%	+0.27	-17.7	0
1992-09-13	Valletta	W 4-2	48.9	1223	1358	36.45%	18.82%	44.73%	-0.36	+28.7	2
1992-09-13	@ Rabat Ajax	L 2-4	48.9	1358	1223	44.73%	18.82%	36.45%	+0.36	-28.7	0
1992-09-13	Hibernians	W 1-0	34.7	1262	1194	61.75%	18.70%	19.55%	+0.78	+9.8	2
1992-09-13	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	34.7	1194	1262	19.55%	18.70%	61.75%	-0.78	-9.8	0
1992-09-13	Floriana	L 0-1	36.6	1074	1286	26.65%	18.70%	54.65%	-0.80	-12.8	0
1992-09-13	@ St. Georges	W 1-0	36.6	1286	1074	54.65%	18.70%	26.65%	+0.80	+12.8	2
1992-09-20	Floriana	L 1-2	48.6	1259	1299	49.63%	18.85%	31.53%	+0.17	-20.3	0
1992-09-20	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 2-1	48.6	1299	1259	31.53%	18.85%	49.63%	-0.17	+20.3	4
1992-09-20	St. Georges	W 4-2	39.2	1185	1061	66.51%	18.56%	14.93%	+1.10	+11.2	2
1992-09-20	@ Hibernians	L 2-4	39.2	1061	1185	14.93%	18.56%	66.51%	-1.10	-11.2	0
1992-09-20	Birkirkara	W 2-1	38.5	1272	1181	63.89%	18.65%	17.46%	+0.92	+8.3	4
1992-09-20	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	38.5	1181	1272	17.46%	18.65%	63.89%	-0.92	-8.3	2
1992-09-20	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	53.9	1088	1252	32.57%	18.79%	48.65%	-0.53	+1.5	1
1992-09-20	@ St. Andrews	D 1-1	53.9	1252	1088	48.65%	18.79%	32.57%	+0.53	-1.5	3
1992-09-20	Mellieha	D 1-1	54.4	1330	1177	68.67%	18.47%	12.86%	+1.26	-5.9	1
1992-09-20	@ Valletta	D 1-1	54.4	1177	1330	12.86%	18.47%	68.67%	-1.26	+5.9	3
1992-10-11	Valletta	D 0-0	51.5	1319	1324	53.98%	18.82%	27.20%	+0.37	-3.0	5
1992-10-11	@ Floriana	D 0-0	51.5	1324	1319	27.20%	18.82%	53.98%	-0.37	+3.0	2
1992-10-11	Birkirkara	W 4-2	42.1	1196	1172	57.20%	18.78%	24.02%	+0.53	+17.1	4
1992-10-11	@ Hibernians	L 2-4	42.1	1172	1196	24.02%	18.78%	57.20%	-0.53	-17.1	2
1992-10-11	St. Andrews	L 1-6	44.7	1183	1090	64.00%	18.65%	17.35%	+0.92	-100.4	3
1992-10-11	@ Mellieha	W 6-1	44.7	1090	1183	17.35%	18.65%	64.00%	-0.92	+100.4	3
1992-10-11	Rabat Ajax	W 1-0	36.1	1280	1250	57.91%	18.78%	23.32%	+0.57	+11.4	6
1992-10-11	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	36.1	1250	1280	23.32%	18.78%	57.91%	-0.57	-11.4	3
1992-10-11	Hamrun Spartans	L 1-4	36.7	1050	1239	29.43%	18.75%	51.82%	-0.67	-32.1	0
1992-10-11	@ St. Georges	W 4-1	36.7	1239	1050	51.82%	18.75%	29.43%	+0.67	+32.1	2
1992-10-18	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	54.0	1155	1239	43.68%	18.85%	37.46%	-0.08	-0.6	3
1992-10-18	@ Birkirkara	D 1-1	54.0	1239	1155	37.46%	18.85%	43.68%	+0.08	+0.6	4
1992-10-18	St. Andrews	D 2-2	59.4	1316	1190	66.71%	18.56%	14.73%	+1.11	-4.1	6
1992-10-18	@ Floriana	D 2-2	59.4	1190	1316	14.73%	18.56%	66.71%	-1.11	+4.1	4
1992-10-18	Hibernians	W 4-1	34.4	1271	1213	60.77%	18.73%	20.51%	+0.73	+23.5	4
1992-10-18	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-4	34.4	1213	1271	20.51%	18.73%	60.77%	-0.73	-23.5	4
1992-10-18	Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	49.5	1082	1292	26.90%	18.70%	54.40%	-0.79	+22.1	5
1992-10-18	@ Mellieha	L 1-2	49.5	1292	1082	54.40%	18.70%	26.90%	+0.79	-22.1	6
1992-10-18	St. Georges	W 3-0	24.4	1327	1018	76.53%	17.78%	5.69%	+2.14	+8.4	4
1992-10-18	@ Valletta	L 0-3	24.4	1018	1327	5.69%	17.78%	76.53%	-2.14	-8.4	0
1992-11-15	Mellieha	W 1-0	34.9	1155	1104	60.04%	18.74%	21.22%	+0.68	+10.5	5
1992-11-15	@ Birkirkara	L 0-1	34.9	1104	1155	21.22%	18.74%	60.04%	-0.68	-10.5	5
1992-11-15	Valletta	W 2-1	43.7	1294	1335	49.49%	18.85%	31.66%	+0.17	+13.9	6
1992-11-15	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-2	43.7	1335	1294	31.66%	18.85%	49.49%	-0.17	-13.9	4
1992-11-15	Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	40.5	1189	1240	48.25%	18.85%	32.90%	+0.11	+24.9	6
1992-11-15	@ Hibernians	L 1-3	40.5	1240	1189	32.90%	18.85%	48.25%	-0.11	-24.9	4
1992-11-15	Floriana	L 2-4	50.3	1270	1312	49.31%	18.85%	31.85%	+0.16	-31.3	6
1992-11-15	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 4-2	50.3	1312	1270	31.85%	18.85%	49.31%	-0.16	+31.3	8
1992-11-15	St. Georges	D 0-0	50.4	1194	1010	70.69%	18.36%	10.95%	+1.44	-7.2	5
1992-11-15	@ St. Andrews	D 0-0	50.4	1010	1194	10.95%	18.36%	70.69%	-1.44	+7.1	1
1992-11-22	Floriana	L 0-1	38.2	1165	1343	30.75%	18.76%	50.49%	-0.61	-14.4	5
1992-11-22	@ Birkirkara	W 1-0	38.2	1343	1165	50.49%	18.76%	30.75%	+0.61	+14.4	10
1992-11-22	Valletta	W 4-2	47.5	1214	1321	40.43%	18.84%	40.73%	-0.20	+26.6	8
1992-11-22	@ Hibernians	L 2-4	47.5	1321	1214	40.73%	18.84%	40.43%	+0.20	-26.5	4
1992-11-22	Mellieha	W 2-1	37.6	1215	1094	66.33%	18.57%	15.10%	+1.08	+7.3	6
1992-11-22	@ Rabat Ajax	L 1-2	37.6	1094	1215	15.10%	18.57%	66.33%	-1.08	-7.3	5
1992-11-22	St. Georges	W 5-2	33.9	1239	1017	72.78%	18.20%	9.02%	+1.65	+9.6	8
1992-11-22	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 2-5	33.9	1017	1239	9.02%	18.20%	72.78%	-1.65	-9.6	1
1992-11-22	Hamrun Spartans	W 4-1	41.1	1187	1308	38.36%	18.83%	42.80%	-0.29	+43.7	7
1992-11-22	@ St. Andrews	L 1-4	41.1	1308	1187	42.80%	18.83%	38.36%	+0.29	-43.7	6
1992-12-13	St. Georges	D 1-1	53.9	1151	1007	68.00%	18.50%	13.49%	+1.21	-5.8	6
1992-12-13	@ Birkirkara	D 1-1	53.9	1007	1151	13.49%	18.50%	68.00%	-1.21	+5.8	2
1992-12-13	Mellieha	W 1-0	32.4	1241	1086	68.77%	18.46%	12.76%	+1.27	+6.6	10
1992-12-13	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	32.4	1086	1241	12.76%	18.46%	68.77%	-1.27	-6.6	5
1992-12-13	Floriana	L 1-3	42.0	1222	1358	36.36%	18.82%	44.82%	-0.37	-27.1	6
1992-12-13	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	42.0	1358	1222	44.82%	18.82%	36.36%	+0.37	+27.0	12
1992-12-13	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-2	41.5	1248	1264	52.57%	18.83%	28.60%	+0.31	-42.8	8
1992-12-13	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 2-0	41.5	1264	1248	28.60%	18.83%	52.57%	-0.31	+42.8	8
1992-12-13	St. Andrews	W 1-0	35.0	1294	1231	61.35%	18.71%	19.94%	+0.76	+9.9	6
1992-12-13	@ Valletta	L 0-1	35.0	1231	1294	19.94%	18.71%	61.35%	-0.76	-9.9	7
1992-12-20	Mellieha	W 3-0	24.6	1385	1080	76.40%	17.80%	5.80%	+2.12	+8.5	14
1992-12-20	@ Floriana	L 0-3	24.6	1080	1385	5.80%	17.80%	76.40%	-2.12	-8.5	5
1992-12-20	Birkirkara	W 3-2	41.9	1307	1145	69.29%	18.44%	12.27%	+1.32	+5.7	10
1992-12-20	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 2-3	41.9	1145	1307	12.27%	18.44%	69.29%	-1.32	-5.7	6
1992-12-20	St. Georges	W 1-0	31.8	1195	1013	70.54%	18.37%	11.09%	+1.43	+5.8	8
1992-12-20	@ Rabat Ajax	L 0-1	31.8	1013	1195	11.09%	18.37%	70.54%	-1.43	-5.8	2
1992-12-20	Hibernians	D 3-3	63.6	1221	1248	51.28%	18.84%	29.89%	+0.25	-1.3	8
1992-12-20	@ St. Andrews	D 3-3	63.6	1248	1221	29.89%	18.84%	51.28%	-0.25	+1.3	11
1992-12-20	Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	38.5	1304	1205	64.54%	18.63%	16.83%	+0.96	+8.0	8
1992-12-20	@ Valletta	L 1-2	38.5	1205	1304	16.83%	18.63%	64.54%	-0.96	-8.0	8
1993-01-17	Hibernians	W 1-0	33.7	1393	1249	68.07%	18.50%	13.43%	+1.21	+7.0	16
1993-01-17	@ Floriana	L 0-1	33.7	1249	1393	13.43%	18.50%	68.07%	-1.21	-6.9	11
1993-01-17	Rabat Ajax	W 4-0	27.0	1313	1201	65.63%	18.60%	15.78%	+1.03	+28.8	12
1993-01-17	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-4	27.0	1201	1313	15.78%	18.60%	65.63%	-1.03	-28.8	8
1993-01-17	St. Andrews	W 2-1	42.0	1197	1219	51.85%	18.84%	29.32%	+0.27	+13.1	10
1993-01-17	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 1-2	42.0	1219	1197	29.32%	18.84%	51.85%	-0.27	-13.1	8
1993-01-17	Mellieha	W 1-0	39.0	1007	1071	46.40%	18.85%	34.74%	+0.04	+16.0	4
1993-01-17	@ St. Georges	L 0-1	39.0	1071	1007	34.74%	18.85%	46.40%	-0.04	-16.0	5
1993-01-17	Birkirkara	W 4-1	31.5	1312	1139	70.00%	18.40%	11.60%	+1.38	+14.0	10
1993-01-17	@ Valletta	L 1-4	31.5	1139	1312	11.60%	18.40%	70.00%	-1.38	-14.0	6
1993-01-31	Mellieha	W 6-0	24.6	1342	1055	75.70%	17.89%	6.40%	+2.02	+18.0	14
1993-01-31	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-6	24.6	1055	1342	6.40%	17.89%	75.70%	-2.02	-18.0	5
1993-01-31	Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	54.1	1242	1210	58.07%	18.77%	23.16%	+0.58	-3.5	12
1993-01-31	@ Hibernians	D 1-1	54.1	1210	1242	23.16%	18.77%	58.07%	-0.58	+3.5	11
1993-01-31	Birkirkara	W 2-0	30.9	1206	1125	62.97%	18.68%	18.36%	+0.86	+17.4	10
1993-01-31	@ St. Andrews	L 0-2	30.9	1125	1206	18.36%	18.68%	62.97%	-0.86	-17.4	6
1993-01-31	Floriana	L 0-1	32.2	1023	1400	12.14%	18.14%	69.72%	-1.73	-6.3	4
1993-01-31	@ St. Georges	W 1-0	32.2	1400	1023	69.72%	18.14%	12.14%	+1.73	+6.3	18
1993-01-31	Rabat Ajax	W 2-0	29.4	1326	1172	68.77%	18.46%	12.76%	+1.27	+12.5	12
1993-01-31	@ Valletta	L 0-2	29.4	1172	1326	12.76%	18.46%	68.77%	-1.27	-12.5	8
1993-02-07	Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	45.3	1108	1214	40.54%	18.84%	40.62%	-0.20	+17.1	8
1993-02-07	@ Birkirkara	L 1-2	45.3	1214	1108	40.62%	18.84%	40.54%	+0.20	-17.1	11
1993-02-07	Hamrun Spartans	W 1-0	37.9	1406	1360	59.66%	18.75%	21.60%	+0.66	+10.6	20
1993-02-07	@ Floriana	L 0-1	37.9	1360	1406	21.60%	18.75%	59.66%	-0.66	-10.7	14
1993-02-07	Valletta	L 0-1	33.9	1037	1339	17.64%	18.44%	63.92%	-1.31	-8.9	5
1993-02-07	@ Mellieha	W 1-0	33.9	1339	1037	63.92%	18.44%	17.64%	+1.31	+8.9	14
1993-02-07	St. Andrews	L 3-5	51.3	1160	1224	46.36%	18.85%	34.78%	+0.03	-28.0	8
1993-02-07	@ Rabat Ajax	W 5-3	51.3	1224	1160	34.78%	18.85%	46.36%	-0.03	+28.0	12
1993-02-07	Hibernians	L 1-5	33.9	1017	1238	25.55%	18.68%	55.77%	-0.85	-36.7	4
1993-02-07	@ St. Georges	W 5-1	33.9	1238	1017	55.77%	18.68%	25.55%	+0.85	+36.7	14
1993-03-07	Hibernians	W 2-1	47.3	1125	1275	34.40%	18.80%	46.80%	-0.45	+19.2	10
1993-03-07	@ Birkirkara	L 1-2	47.3	1275	1125	46.80%	18.80%	34.40%	+0.45	-19.3	14
1993-03-07	St. Georges	W 3-1	31.3	1349	980	78.46%	17.42%	4.11%	+2.48	+3.6	16
1993-03-07	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-3	31.3	980	1349	4.11%	17.42%	78.46%	-2.48	-3.6	4
1993-03-07	Sliema Wanderers	W 3-1	40.9	1132	1197	46.24%	18.85%	34.91%	+0.03	+26.2	10
1993-03-07	@ Rabat Ajax	L 1-3	40.9	1197	1132	34.91%	18.85%	46.24%	-0.03	-26.2	11
1993-03-07	Mellieha	W 5-2	33.9	1252	1028	72.86%	18.20%	8.94%	+1.66	+9.5	14
1993-03-07	@ St. Andrews	L 2-5	33.9	1028	1252	8.94%	18.20%	72.86%	-1.66	-9.5	5
1993-03-07	Floriana	W 1-0	42.1	1348	1417	45.69%	18.85%	35.46%	+0.01	+16.2	16
1993-03-07	@ Valletta	L 0-1	42.1	1417	1348	35.46%	18.85%	45.69%	-0.01	-16.2	20
1993-03-21	Hamrun Spartans	D 2-2	59.8	1256	1353	41.83%	18.85%	39.33%	-0.15	-0.2	15
1993-03-21	@ Hibernians	D 2-2	59.8	1353	1256	39.33%	18.85%	41.83%	+0.15	+0.2	17
1993-03-21	Birkirkara	D 0-0	50.3	1158	1144	56.07%	18.80%	25.13%	+0.47	-3.5	11
1993-03-21	@ Rabat Ajax	D 0-0	50.3	1144	1158	25.13%	18.80%	56.07%	-0.47	+3.5	11
1993-03-21	Mellieha	W 2-0	29.1	1171	1019	68.58%	18.47%	12.95%	+1.26	+12.7	13
1993-03-21	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-2	29.1	1019	1171	12.95%	18.47%	68.58%	-1.26	-12.7	5
1993-03-21	Floriana	W 2-1	48.1	1261	1401	35.81%	18.82%	45.37%	-0.39	+18.8	16
1993-03-21	@ St. Andrews	L 1-2	48.1	1401	1261	45.37%	18.82%	35.81%	+0.39	-18.8	20
1993-03-21	Valletta	L 1-2	36.4	977	1364	11.51%	18.09%	70.40%	-1.79	-5.6	4
1993-03-21	@ St. Georges	W 2-1	36.4	1364	977	70.40%	18.09%	11.51%	+1.79	+5.6	18
1993-03-28	Birkirkara	L 1-2	43.7	1006	1148	35.56%	18.81%	45.62%	-0.40	-15.3	5
1993-03-28	@ Mellieha	W 2-1	43.7	1148	1006	45.62%	18.81%	35.56%	+0.40	+15.3	13
1993-03-28	Hibernians	L 2-5	43.9	1154	1256	41.19%	18.85%	39.96%	-0.17	-36.7	11
1993-03-28	@ Rabat Ajax	W 5-2	43.9	1256	1154	39.96%	18.85%	41.19%	+0.17	+36.7	17
1993-03-28	Floriana	L 1-3	39.5	1183	1382	28.18%	18.73%	53.09%	-0.73	-21.8	13
1993-03-28	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 3-1	39.5	1382	1183	53.09%	18.73%	28.18%	+0.73	+21.9	22
1993-03-28	St. Andrews	W 3-2	57.3	971	1280	17.02%	18.42%	64.57%	-1.35	+24.8	6
1993-03-28	@ St. Georges	L 2-3	57.3	1280	971	64.57%	18.42%	17.02%	+1.35	-24.8	16
1993-03-28	Hamrun Spartans	D 2-2	61.0	1370	1353	56.46%	18.79%	24.75%	+0.49	-2.4	19
1993-03-28	@ Valletta	D 2-2	61.0	1353	1370	24.75%	18.79%	56.46%	-0.49	+2.4	18
1993-04-04	Birkirkara	W 5-1	29.2	1404	1163	73.73%	18.12%	8.15%	+1.76	+12.9	24
1993-04-04	@ Floriana	L 1-5	29.2	1163	1404	8.15%	18.12%	73.73%	-1.76	-12.9	13
1993-04-04	St. Andrews	L 1-2	53.4	1355	1255	64.62%	18.63%	16.75%	+0.96	-26.2	18
1993-04-04	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 2-1	53.4	1255	1355	16.75%	18.63%	64.62%	-0.96	+26.2	18
1993-04-04	Rabat Ajax	L 2-4	46.0	991	1118	37.61%	18.83%	43.56%	-0.32	-24.9	5
1993-04-04	@ Mellieha	W 4-2	46.0	1118	991	43.56%	18.83%	37.61%	+0.32	+24.9	13
1993-04-04	Sliema Wanderers	D 2-2	58.9	996	1161	32.33%	18.78%	48.88%	-0.54	+1.2	7
1993-04-04	@ St. Georges	D 2-2	58.9	1161	996	48.88%	18.78%	32.33%	+0.54	-1.2	14
1993-04-04	Hibernians	L 0-5	42.2	1367	1292	62.41%	18.69%	18.90%	+0.82	-118.1	19
1993-04-04	@ Valletta	W 5-0	42.2	1292	1367	18.90%	18.69%	62.41%	-0.82	+118.1	19
1993-04-11	Sliema Wanderers	W 3-1	34.2	1329	1160	69.72%	18.41%	11.86%	+1.35	+10.1	20
1993-04-11	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-3	34.2	1160	1329	11.86%	18.41%	69.72%	-1.35	-10.1	14
1993-04-11	Hibernians	L 0-3	25.3	966	1410	8.58%	17.80%	73.62%	-2.11	-12.4	5
1993-04-11	@ Mellieha	W 3-0	25.3	1410	966	73.62%	17.80%	8.58%	+2.11	+12.4	21
1993-04-11	Floriana	L 0-3	29.5	1142	1417	20.07%	18.53%	61.40%	-1.15	-27.2	13
1993-04-11	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-0	29.5	1417	1142	61.40%	18.53%	20.07%	+1.15	+27.2	26
1993-04-11	Valletta	L 0-3	40.8	1281	1249	58.14%	18.77%	23.09%	+0.58	-68.4	18
1993-04-11	@ St. Andrews	W 3-0	40.8	1249	1281	23.09%	18.77%	58.14%	-0.58	+68.4	21
1993-04-11	Birkirkara	W 2-1	47.2	997	1150	33.98%	18.80%	47.22%	-0.47	+19.4	9
1993-04-11	@ St. Georges	L 1-2	47.2	1150	997	47.22%	18.80%	33.98%	+0.47	-19.4	13
1993-04-18	Hamrun Spartans	L 1-3	38.8	1131	1339	27.04%	18.71%	54.25%	-0.78	-21.1	13
1993-04-18	@ Birkirkara	W 3-1	38.8	1339	1131	54.25%	18.71%	27.04%	+0.78	+21.1	22
1993-04-18	St. Andrews	L 2-4	57.4	1423	1213	72.14%	18.25%	9.60%	+1.58	-45.5	21
1993-04-18	@ Hibernians	W 4-2	57.4	1213	1423	9.60%	18.25%	72.14%	-1.58	+45.5	20
1993-04-18	Floriana	D 1-1	54.4	954	1444	6.73%	17.54%	75.73%	-2.37	+7.5	6
1993-04-18	@ Mellieha	D 1-1	54.4	1444	954	75.73%	17.54%	6.73%	+2.37	-7.5	27
1993-04-18	Valletta	D 1-1	54.1	1150	1318	32.10%	18.78%	49.12%	-0.55	+1.6	15
1993-04-18	@ Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	54.1	1318	1150	49.12%	18.78%	32.10%	+0.55	-1.6	22
1993-04-18	Rabat Ajax	L 0-7	36.1	1016	1115	41.56%	18.85%	39.59%	-0.16	-112.1	9
1993-04-18	@ St. Georges	W 7-0	36.1	1115	1016	39.59%	18.85%	41.56%	+0.16	+112.0	15
1993-04-25	Valletta	L 1-4	36.3	1110	1316	27.29%	18.71%	53.99%	-0.77	-30.1	13
1993-04-25	@ Birkirkara	W 4-1	36.3	1316	1110	53.99%	18.71%	27.29%	+0.77	+30.1	24
1993-04-25	Floriana	L 1-2	51.1	1377	1437	47.03%	18.85%	34.12%	+0.06	-19.4	21
1993-04-25	@ Hibernians	W 2-1	51.1	1437	1377	34.12%	18.85%	47.03%	-0.06	+19.3	29
1993-04-25	St. Georges	D 1-1	53.8	961	904	60.68%	18.73%	20.59%	+0.72	-4.1	7
1993-04-25	@ Mellieha	D 1-1	53.8	904	961	20.59%	18.73%	60.68%	-0.72	+4.1	10
1993-04-25	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-4	33.7	1227	1360	36.71%	18.82%	44.46%	-0.35	-59.8	15
1993-04-25	@ Rabat Ajax	W 4-0	33.7	1360	1227	44.46%	18.82%	36.71%	+0.35	+59.7	24
1993-04-25	Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	38.0	1259	1152	65.19%	18.61%	16.20%	+1.00	+7.8	22
1993-04-25	@ St. Andrews	L 1-2	38.0	1152	1259	16.20%	18.61%	65.19%	-1.00	-7.8	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1993-04-18	9.60%	St. Andrews	1213	4	@ Hibernians	1423	2
2	1993-04-04	16.75%	St. Andrews	1255	2	@ Hamrun Spartans	1355	1
3	1993-03-28	17.02%	@ St. Georges	971	3	St. Andrews	1280	2
4	1992-10-11	17.35%	St. Andrews	1090	6	@ Mellieha	1183	1
5	1993-04-04	18.90%	Hibernians	1292	5	@ Valletta	1367	0
6	1993-04-11	23.09%	Valletta	1249	3	@ St. Andrews	1281	0
7	1992-10-18	26.90%	@ Mellieha	1082	2	Sliema Wanderers	1292	1
8	1992-12-13	28.60%	Hamrun Spartans	1264	2	@ Sliema Wanderers	1248	0
9	1992-09-20	31.53%	Floriana	1299	2	@ Hamrun Spartans	1259	1
10	1992-11-15	31.85%	Floriana	1312	4	@ Sliema Wanderers	1270	2
11	1993-04-11	33.98%	@ St. Georges	997	2	Birkirkara	1150	1
12	1993-04-25	34.12%	Floriana	1437	2	@ Hibernians	1377	1
13	1993-03-07	34.40%	@ Birkirkara	1125	2	Hibernians	1275	1
14	1993-02-07	34.78%	St. Andrews	1224	5	@ Rabat Ajax	1160	3
15	1993-03-21	35.81%	@ St. Andrews	1261	2	Floriana	1401	1
16	1992-09-13	36.45%	@ Rabat Ajax	1223	4	Valletta	1358	2
17	1992-11-22	38.36%	@ St. Andrews	1187	4	Hamrun Spartans	1308	1
18	1992-09-13	38.85%	@ Mellieha	1159	2	Hamrun Spartans	1277	1
19	1993-04-18	39.59%	Rabat Ajax	1115	7	@ St. Georges	1016	0
20	1993-03-28	39.96%	Hibernians	1256	5	@ Rabat Ajax	1154	2
21	1992-11-22	40.43%	@ Hibernians	1214	4	Valletta	1321	2
22	1993-02-07	40.54%	@ Birkirkara	1108	2	Sliema Wanderers	1214	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1993-04-04	118.12	Hibernians	5	1292	18.90%	@ Valletta	0	1367	62.41%	18.69%
2	1993-04-18	112.05	Rabat Ajax	7	1115	39.59%	@ St. Georges	0	1016	41.56%	18.85%
3	1992-10-11	100.36	St. Andrews	6	1090	17.35%	@ Mellieha	1	1183	64.00%	18.65%
4	1993-04-11	68.37	Valletta	3	1249	23.09%	@ St. Andrews	0	1281	58.14%	18.77%
5	1993-04-25	59.75	Hamrun Spartans	4	1360	44.46%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1227	36.71%	18.82%
6	1993-04-18	45.53	St. Andrews	4	1213	9.60%	@ Hibernians	2	1423	72.14%	18.25%
7	1992-11-22	43.74	@ St. Andrews	4	1187	38.36%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1308	42.80%	18.83%
8	1992-12-13	42.78	Hamrun Spartans	2	1264	28.60%	@ Sliema Wanderers	0	1248	52.57%	18.83%
9	1993-03-28	36.70	Hibernians	5	1256	39.96%	@ Rabat Ajax	2	1154	41.19%	18.85%
10	1993-02-07	36.67	Hibernians	5	1238	55.77%	@ St. Georges	1	1017	25.55%	18.68%
11	1992-10-11	32.06	Hamrun Spartans	4	1239	51.82%	@ St. Georges	1	1050	29.43%	18.75%
12	1992-11-15	31.26	Floriana	4	1312	31.85%	@ Sliema Wanderers	2	1270	49.31%	18.85%
13	1993-04-25	30.07	Valletta	4	1316	53.99%	@ Birkirkara	1	1110	27.29%	18.71%
14	1993-01-17	28.80	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1313	65.63%	Rabat Ajax	0	1201	15.78%	18.60%
15	1992-09-13	28.70	@ Rabat Ajax	4	1223	36.45%	Valletta	2	1358	44.73%	18.82%
16	1993-02-07	27.98	St. Andrews	5	1224	34.78%	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1160	46.36%	18.85%
17	1993-04-11	27.25	Floriana	3	1417	61.40%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1142	20.07%	18.53%
18	1992-12-13	27.06	Floriana	3	1358	44.82%	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1222	36.36%	18.82%
19	1992-11-22	26.55	@ Hibernians	4	1214	40.43%	Valletta	2	1321	40.73%	18.84%
20	1993-03-07	26.17	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1132	46.24%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1197	34.91%	18.85%
21	1993-04-04	26.17	St. Andrews	2	1255	16.75%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1355	64.62%	18.63%
22	1992-11-15	24.92	@ Hibernians	3	1189	48.25%	Rabat Ajax	1	1240	32.90%	18.85%
23	1993-04-04	24.88	Rabat Ajax	4	1118	43.56%	@ Mellieha	2	991	37.61%	18.83%
24	1993-03-28	24.75	@ St. Georges	3	971	17.02%	St. Andrews	2	1280	64.57%	18.42%
25	1992-10-18	23.50	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1271	60.77%	Hibernians	1	1213	20.51%	18.73%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1992-12-20	63.6	@ St. Andrews	3	1221	51.28%	Hibernians	3	1248	29.89%	18.84%
2	1993-03-28	61.0	@ Valletta	2	1370	56.46%	Hamrun Spartans	2	1353	24.75%	18.79%
3	1993-03-21	59.8	@ Hibernians	2	1256	41.83%	Hamrun Spartans	2	1353	39.33%	18.85%
4	1992-10-18	59.4	@ Floriana	2	1316	66.71%	St. Andrews	2	1190	14.73%	18.56%
5	1993-04-04	58.9	@ St. Georges	2	996	32.33%	Sliema Wanderers	2	1161	48.88%	18.78%
6	1993-04-18	57.4	St. Andrews	4	1213	9.60%	@ Hibernians	2	1423	72.14%	18.25%
7	1993-03-28	57.3	@ St. Georges	3	971	17.02%	St. Andrews	2	1280	64.57%	18.42%
8	1992-09-20	54.4	@ Valletta	1	1330	68.67%	Mellieha	1	1177	12.86%	18.47%
9	1993-04-18	54.4	@ Mellieha	1	954	6.73%	Floriana	1	1444	75.73%	17.54%
10	1993-01-31	54.1	@ Hibernians	1	1242	58.07%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1210	23.16%	18.77%
11	1993-04-18	54.1	@ Sliema Wanderers	1	1150	32.10%	Valletta	1	1318	49.12%	18.78%
12	1992-10-18	54.0	@ Birkirkara	1	1155	43.68%	Rabat Ajax	1	1239	37.46%	18.85%
13	1992-09-20	53.9	@ St. Andrews	1	1088	32.57%	Rabat Ajax	1	1252	48.65%	18.79%
14	1992-12-13	53.9	@ Birkirkara	1	1151	68.00%	St. Georges	1	1007	13.49%	18.50%
15	1993-04-25	53.8	@ Mellieha	1	961	60.68%	St. Georges	1	904	20.59%	18.73%
16	1993-04-04	53.4	St. Andrews	2	1255	16.75%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1355	64.62%	18.63%
17	1992-10-11	51.5	@ Floriana	0	1319	53.98%	Valletta	0	1324	27.20%	18.82%
18	1993-02-07	51.3	St. Andrews	5	1224	34.78%	@ Rabat Ajax	3	1160	46.36%	18.85%
19	1993-04-25	51.1	Floriana	2	1437	34.12%	@ Hibernians	1	1377	47.03%	18.85%
20	1992-11-15	50.4	@ St. Andrews	0	1194	70.69%	St. Georges	0	1010	10.95%	18.36%
21	1992-11-15	50.3	Floriana	4	1312	31.85%	@ Sliema Wanderers	2	1270	49.31%	18.85%
22	1993-03-21	50.3	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1158	56.07%	Birkirkara	0	1144	25.13%	18.80%
23	1992-10-18	49.5	@ Mellieha	2	1082	26.90%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1292	54.40%	18.70%
24	1992-09-13	48.9	@ Rabat Ajax	4	1223	36.45%	Valletta	2	1358	44.73%	18.82%
25	1992-09-20	48.6	Floriana	2	1299	31.53%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1259	49.63%	18.85%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1992-10-18	24.4	@ Valletta	3	1327	76.53%	St. Georges	0	1018	5.69%	17.78%
2	1992-12-20	24.6	@ Floriana	3	1385	76.40%	Mellieha	0	1080	5.80%	17.80%
3	1993-01-31	24.6	@ Hamrun Spartans	6	1342	75.70%	Mellieha	0	1055	6.40%	17.89%
4	1993-04-11	25.3	Hibernians	3	1410	73.62%	@ Mellieha	0	966	8.58%	17.80%
5	1993-01-17	27.0	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1313	65.63%	Rabat Ajax	0	1201	15.78%	18.60%
6	1993-03-21	29.1	@ Sliema Wanderers	2	1171	68.58%	Mellieha	0	1019	12.95%	18.47%
7	1993-04-04	29.2	@ Floriana	5	1404	73.73%	Birkirkara	1	1163	8.15%	18.12%
8	1993-01-31	29.4	@ Valletta	2	1326	68.77%	Rabat Ajax	0	1172	12.76%	18.46%
9	1993-04-11	29.5	Floriana	3	1417	61.40%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1142	20.07%	18.53%
10	1993-01-31	30.9	@ St. Andrews	2	1206	62.97%	Birkirkara	0	1125	18.36%	18.68%
11	1993-03-07	31.3	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1349	78.46%	St. Georges	1	980	4.11%	17.42%
12	1993-01-17	31.5	@ Valletta	4	1312	70.00%	Birkirkara	1	1139	11.60%	18.40%
13	1992-12-20	31.8	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1195	70.54%	St. Georges	0	1013	11.09%	18.37%
14	1993-01-31	32.2	Floriana	1	1400	69.72%	@ St. Georges	0	1023	12.14%	18.14%
15	1992-12-13	32.4	@ Hibernians	1	1241	68.77%	Mellieha	0	1086	12.76%	18.46%
16	1993-01-17	33.7	@ Floriana	1	1393	68.07%	Hibernians	0	1249	13.43%	18.50%
17	1993-04-25	33.7	Hamrun Spartans	4	1360	44.46%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1227	36.71%	18.82%
18	1992-11-22	33.9	@ Sliema Wanderers	5	1239	72.78%	St. Georges	2	1017	9.02%	18.20%
19	1993-02-07	33.9	Valletta	1	1339	63.92%	@ Mellieha	0	1037	17.64%	18.44%
20	1993-02-07	33.9	Hibernians	5	1238	55.77%	@ St. Georges	1	1017	25.55%	18.68%
21	1993-03-07	33.9	@ St. Andrews	5	1252	72.86%	Mellieha	2	1028	8.94%	18.20%
22	1993-04-11	34.2	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1329	69.72%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1160	11.86%	18.41%
23	1992-10-18	34.4	@ Hamrun Spartans	4	1271	60.77%	Hibernians	1	1213	20.51%	18.73%
24	1992-09-13	34.7	@ Sliema Wanderers	1	1262	61.75%	Hibernians	0	1194	19.55%	18.70%
25	1992-11-15	34.9	@ Birkirkara	1	1155	60.04%	Mellieha	0	1104	21.22%	18.74%