1993-94 Maltese Premier League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Hibernians

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hibernians

6.65 points above expected

31 points · 24.35 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mqabba

5.90 points below expected

1 points · 6.90 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Hibernians	18	14	3	1	31	48	15	+33	24.35	+6.65
2	Floriana	18	12	4	2	28	29	7	+22	26.20	+1.80
3	Valletta	18	12	3	3	27	42	17	+25	23.92	+3.08
4	Hamrun Spartans	18	8	9	1	25	35	10	+25	25.72	-0.72
5	Sliema Wanderers	18	7	5	6	19	23	14	+9	16.74	+2.26
6	Zurrieq	18	5	4	9	14	18	29	-11	12.13	+1.87
7	St. Andrews	18	5	3	10	13	18	30	-12	16.48	-3.48
8	Birkirkara	18	6	0	12	12	19	36	-17	13.94	-1.94
9	Rabat Ajax	18	2	6	10	10	16	38	-22	13.62	-3.62
10	Mqabba	18	0	1	17	1	3	55	-52	6.90	-5.90

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hibernians	31	24.35	+6.65
2	Valletta	27	23.92	+3.08
3	Sliema Wanderers	19	16.74	+2.26
4	Zurrieq	14	12.13	+1.87
5	Floriana	28	26.20	+1.80

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Mqabba	1	6.90	-5.90
2	Rabat Ajax	10	13.62	-3.62
3	St. Andrews	13	16.48	-3.48
4	Birkirkara	12	13.94	-1.94
5	Hamrun Spartans	25	25.72	-0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hibernians	5	Dec 5 – Mar 20	1 in 26
2	Zurrieq	2	Nov 28 – Dec 5	1 in 22
3	Valletta	6	Jan 16 – Apr 10	1 in 11
4	Floriana	4	Nov 7 – Nov 28	1 in 6
5	Sliema Wanderers	3	May 1 – May 22	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mqabba	13	Nov 28 – May 22	1 in 61
2	St. Andrews	4	Dec 5 – Jan 30	1 in 21
3	Rabat Ajax	3	May 1 – May 22	1 in 8
4	Birkirkara	3	Oct 3 – Nov 14	1 in 4
5	Floriana	1	Dec 5 – Dec 5	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamrun Spartans	15	Sep 26 – Apr 24	1 in 32
2	Hibernians	11	Sep 26 – Mar 20	1 in 17
3	Rabat Ajax	3	Apr 3 – Apr 24	1 in 12
4	Zurrieq	3	Jan 16 – Mar 20	1 in 10
5	St. Andrews	4	Apr 3 – May 1	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamrun Spartans	4	Apr 3 – May 1	1 in 77
2	Rabat Ajax	7	Sep 26 – Dec 5	1 in 23
3	St. Andrews	7	Dec 5 – Apr 3	1 in 13
4	Mqabba	18	Sep 26 – May 22	1 in 6
5	Floriana	2	Jan 30 – Mar 20	1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Hibernians	1579	31	+68	9	6.9	+2.1
Floriana	1538	28	-4	7	7.1	-0.1
Valletta	1528	27	+17	7	6.0	+1.0
Hamrun Spartans	1554	25	-16	6	7.8	-1.8
Sliema Wanderers	1371	19	+53	7	5.5	+1.5
Zurrieq	1135	14	-7	4	3.0	+1.0
St. Andrews	1217	13	+5	5	4.8	+0.2
Birkirkara	1164	12	-36	2	3.3	-1.3
Rabat Ajax	1111	10	-27	3	4.1	-1.1
Mqabba	864	1	-53	0	1.6	-1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BIR	FLO	HS	HIB	MQA	RA	SW	SA	VAL	ZUR
Birkirkara	—	0-0-2 1.02	0-0-2 0.89	0-0-2 1.16	2-0-0 4.14	2-0-0 2.71	0-0-2 2.10	1-0-1 2.14	0-0-2 1.40	1-0-1 3.11
Floriana	2-0-0 4.55	—	0-2-0 2.97	0-0-2 3.28	2-0-0 5.11	2-0-0 4.79	1-1-0 4.24	2-0-0 4.39	1-1-0 3.13	2-0-0 4.81
Hamrun Spartans	2-0-0 4.69	0-2-0 2.58	—	1-1-0 2.83	2-0-0 5.13	0-2-0 4.69	1-1-0 4.32	1-1-0 4.22	0-1-1 3.28	1-1-0 4.69
Hibernians	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 2.27	0-1-1 2.73	—	2-0-0 4.98	1-1-0 4.25	2-0-0 4.16	2-0-0 4.52	2-0-0 3.11	1-1-0 4.73
Mqabba	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 0.51	0-0-2 0.50	0-0-2 0.63	—	0-1-1 1.24	0-0-2 0.99	0-0-2 1.01	0-0-2 0.57	0-0-2 1.71
Rabat Ajax	0-0-2 2.85	0-0-2 0.80	0-2-0 0.89	0-1-1 1.32	1-1-0 4.32	—	0-1-1 2.24	0-1-1 2.23	0-0-2 1.16	1-0-1 2.63
Sliema Wanderers	2-0-0 3.46	0-1-1 1.32	0-1-1 1.25	0-0-2 1.40	2-0-0 4.59	1-1-0 3.31	—	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 1.46	1-1-0 3.96
St. Andrews	1-0-1 3.42	0-0-2 1.18	0-1-1 1.35	0-0-2 1.05	2-0-0 4.56	1-1-0 3.33	1-0-1 2.70	—	0-0-2 1.98	0-1-1 3.77
Valletta	2-0-0 4.16	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.27	0-0-2 2.44	2-0-0 5.05	2-0-0 4.41	1-1-0 4.10	2-0-0 3.57	—	2-0-0 4.68
Zurrieq	1-0-1 2.44	0-0-2 0.77	0-1-1 0.89	0-1-1 0.85	2-0-0 3.85	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 1.60	1-1-0 1.78	0-0-2 0.90	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.90	+6.8
Allowed	0.87	-5.9
Differential	0.98	+3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	7.22%	10.00%	7.22%	1.11%	2.78%	39.44%
1	7.22%	7.78%	2.78%	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	22.22%
2	10.00%	2.78%	2.22%	0.56%	1.11%	1.11%	17.78%
3	7.22%	1.67%	0.56%	—	0.56%	0.56%	10.56%
4	1.11%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	5.00%
5+	2.78%	0.56%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	5.00%
Total	39.44%	22.22%	17.78%	10.56%	5.00%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.62	1.62	2.52
CV	1.16	1.16	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	50.00%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	2.00	-0.94
SD	1.30	2.14	2.82
CV	1.24	1.07	—
Max	4	8	+3
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	83.33%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	0.39	+1.22
SD	1.24	0.98	1.63
CV	0.77	2.52	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	55.56%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	0.56	+1.39
SD	1.92	0.70	2.17
CV	0.99	1.27	—
Max	8	2	+8
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	55.56%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	0.83	+1.83
SD	1.88	1.10	2.04
CV	0.70	1.32	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	88.89%
1	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.17	3.06	-2.89
SD	0.51	2.04	2.00
CV	3.09	0.67	—
Max	2	8	+0
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	44.44%
1	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	2.11	-1.22
SD	1.13	1.60	1.86
CV	1.27	0.76	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	55.56%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	0.78	+0.50
SD	1.67	1.06	2.36
CV	1.31	1.36	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.67	-0.67
SD	1.37	1.57	1.78
CV	1.37	0.94	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	0.94	+1.39
SD	1.97	1.16	2.33
CV	0.84	1.23	—
Max	8	4	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.61	-0.61
SD	1.28	1.38	1.97
CV	1.28	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Hibernians	1579	31	24.35	+6.65	100.0%	17	19	22	25	26	29	31
Hamrun Spartans	1554	25	25.72	-0.72	43.0%	17	21	24	26	28	30	33
Floriana	1538	28	26.20	+1.80	78.0%	18	21	24	26	28	31	34
Valletta	1528	27	23.92	+3.08	89.0%	15	19	22	24	26	30	32
Sliema Wanderers	1371	19	16.74	+2.26	74.0%	10	11	14	16	20	22	25
St. Andrews	1217	13	16.48	-3.48	20.0%	9	11	14	16	19	22	24
Birkirkara	1164	12	13.94	-1.94	36.0%	6	8	12	14	16	19	24
Zurrieq	1135	14	12.13	+1.87	78.0%	6	8	10	12	14	17	19
Rabat Ajax	1111	10	13.62	-3.62	20.0%	5	8	12	14	16	19	21
Mqabba	864	1	6.90	-5.90	3.0%	0	2	5	7	8	11	12

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-3.33%

No Edge

37.78%21.11%41.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -11.59 Elo pts.

154 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.01 goals

Neutral

-2-0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.5

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

18%

Hibernians, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.51 * Some Luck: 2.51 to 3.77 * Lucky: 3.77 to 5.02 * Wild Swing: 5.02 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.83 * Close: 0.83 to 1.24 * Off: 1.24 to 1.66 * Way Off: 1.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.60 points

Some Luck

03.148

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.042.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

100.00%

Hibernians

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.00%

Mqabba

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.

Gini Index

0.28

Lopsided

00.20.270.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 243.63

2.55

Wide Separation

0.951.6522.253

Interquartile Edge

91%

Wide Edge

50%72.5%79%84%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

98%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

43%

Few

0%44%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.46

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.54

Lopsided

00.420.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.47

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.78

Strong Carryover

00.570.741

Upset Rate

Expected

12%

Chalky

0%18%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

Solid Favorites

0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.63

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.91

Very Underconfident

01.002.18764

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.089

Well Within Noise

00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Hibernians	18.00%	25.00%	28.00%	22.00%	6.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Floriana	35.00%	30.00%	18.00%	13.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Valletta	13.00%	17.00%	25.00%	34.00%	9.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Hamrun Spartans	34.00%	26.00%	25.00%	13.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Sliema Wanderers	—	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	33.00%	20.00%	19.00%	11.00%	6.00%	—
Zurrieq	—	—	—	—	3.00%	14.00%	19.00%	26.00%	33.00%	5.00%
St. Andrews	—	—	2.00%	9.00%	24.00%	25.00%	20.00%	12.00%	7.00%	1.00%
Birkirkara	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	8.00%	22.00%	17.00%	27.00%	17.00%	7.00%
Rabat Ajax	—	—	—	—	11.00%	17.00%	24.00%	23.00%	18.00%	7.00%
Mqabba	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	19.00%	80.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Floriana	100%	—
Hamrun Spartans	100%	—
Hibernians	100%	—
Valletta	100%	—
Sliema Wanderers	94.00%	6.00%
St. Andrews	92.00%	8.00%
Birkirkara	76.00%	24.00%
Rabat Ajax	75.00%	25.00%
Zurrieq	62.00%	38.00%
Mqabba	1.00%	99.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1993-09-26	Mqabba	W 2-0	34.8	1228	1055	59.63%	22.03%	18.34%	+1.05	+19.9	2
1993-09-26	@ Birkirkara	L 0-2	34.8	1055	1228	18.34%	22.03%	59.63%	-1.05	-19.9	0
1993-09-26	Sliema Wanderers	W 3-0	34.7	1471	1274	61.84%	21.92%	16.24%	+1.21	+26.0	2
1993-09-26	@ Floriana	L 0-3	34.7	1274	1471	16.24%	21.92%	61.84%	-1.21	-26.0	0
1993-09-26	Zurrieq	W 4-1	34.9	1453	1130	70.28%	21.17%	8.55%	+2.02	+12.2	2
1993-09-26	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 1-4	34.9	1130	1453	8.55%	21.17%	70.28%	-2.02	-12.2	0
1993-09-26	Hibernians	D 1-1	56.1	1287	1411	23.08%	22.20%	54.71%	-0.88	+3.4	1
1993-09-26	@ Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	56.1	1411	1287	54.71%	22.20%	23.08%	+0.88	-3.4	1
1993-09-26	St. Andrews	W 4-2	50.1	1401	1351	45.79%	22.36%	31.85%	+0.25	+24.4	2
1993-09-26	@ Valletta	L 2-4	50.1	1351	1401	31.85%	22.36%	45.79%	-0.25	-24.4	0
1993-10-03	Valletta	L 1-4	38.7	1248	1426	17.85%	22.01%	60.14%	-1.23	-23.8	2
1993-10-03	@ Birkirkara	W 4-1	38.7	1426	1248	60.14%	22.01%	17.85%	+1.23	+23.8	4
1993-10-03	Hamrun Spartans	D 0-0	58.7	1497	1465	43.35%	22.37%	34.28%	+0.13	-1.0	3
1993-10-03	@ Floriana	D 0-0	58.7	1465	1497	34.28%	22.37%	43.35%	-0.13	+1.0	3
1993-10-03	Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	38.7	1408	1248	58.45%	22.08%	19.47%	+0.97	+11.1	3
1993-10-03	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	38.7	1248	1408	19.47%	22.08%	58.45%	-0.97	-11.1	0
1993-10-03	Rabat Ajax	W 5-3	51.0	1326	1291	43.80%	22.37%	33.82%	+0.16	+24.2	2
1993-10-03	@ St. Andrews	L 3-5	51.0	1291	1326	33.82%	22.37%	43.80%	-0.16	-24.2	1
1993-10-03	Mqabba	W 1-0	39.9	1118	1035	49.90%	22.30%	27.79%	+0.46	+15.0	2
1993-10-03	@ Zurrieq	L 0-1	39.9	1035	1118	27.79%	22.30%	49.90%	-0.46	-15.0	0
1993-11-07	Birkirkara	W 1-0	36.8	1496	1224	67.38%	21.51%	11.11%	+1.70	+6.7	5
1993-11-07	@ Floriana	L 0-1	36.8	1224	1496	11.11%	21.51%	67.38%	-1.70	-6.7	2
1993-11-07	Mqabba	W 2-0	30.8	1419	1020	73.70%	20.56%	5.73%	+2.52	+6.7	5
1993-11-07	@ Hibernians	L 0-2	30.8	1020	1419	5.73%	20.56%	73.70%	-2.52	-6.7	0
1993-11-07	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-2	42.7	1267	1237	43.03%	22.38%	34.59%	+0.12	-40.0	1
1993-11-07	@ Rabat Ajax	W 2-0	42.7	1237	1267	34.59%	22.38%	43.03%	-0.12	+40.0	2
1993-11-07	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-3	38.6	1351	1466	24.02%	22.23%	53.75%	-0.83	-36.4	2
1993-11-07	@ St. Andrews	W 3-0	38.6	1466	1351	53.75%	22.23%	24.02%	+0.83	+36.4	5
1993-11-07	Valletta	L 0-2	32.5	1133	1449	8.83%	21.21%	69.96%	-2.14	-10.2	2
1993-11-07	@ Zurrieq	W 2-0	32.5	1449	1133	69.96%	21.21%	8.83%	+2.14	+10.2	6
1993-11-14	Hibernians	L 0-2	35.1	1217	1426	15.35%	21.87%	62.78%	-1.43	-17.0	2
1993-11-14	@ Birkirkara	W 2-0	35.1	1426	1217	62.78%	21.87%	15.35%	+1.43	+17.0	7
1993-11-14	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	56.8	1502	1227	67.58%	21.49%	10.93%	+1.72	-6.7	6
1993-11-14	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	56.8	1227	1502	10.93%	21.49%	67.58%	-1.72	+6.6	2
1993-11-14	St. Andrews	L 0-1	34.3	1014	1314	9.59%	21.32%	69.08%	-2.03	-5.9	0
1993-11-14	@ Mqabba	W 1-0	34.3	1314	1014	69.08%	21.32%	9.59%	+2.03	+5.9	4
1993-11-14	Sliema Wanderers	D 0-0	52.7	1460	1277	60.59%	21.99%	17.42%	+1.12	-5.4	7
1993-11-14	@ Valletta	D 0-0	52.7	1277	1460	17.42%	21.99%	60.59%	-1.12	+5.4	3
1993-11-14	Floriana	L 0-2	31.9	1123	1503	6.32%	20.72%	72.96%	-2.55	-7.4	2
1993-11-14	@ Zurrieq	W 2-0	31.9	1503	1123	72.96%	20.72%	6.32%	+2.55	+7.4	7
1993-11-21	Valletta	W 3-0	45.4	1510	1454	46.52%	22.35%	31.13%	+0.29	+44.9	9
1993-11-21	@ Floriana	L 0-3	45.4	1454	1510	31.13%	22.35%	46.52%	-0.29	-44.9	7
1993-11-21	Zurrieq	W 3-0	30.2	1443	1115	70.53%	21.13%	8.34%	+2.06	+14.1	9
1993-11-21	@ Hibernians	L 0-3	30.2	1115	1443	8.34%	21.13%	70.53%	-2.06	-14.1	2
1993-11-21	Mqabba	D 0-0	50.4	1233	1008	64.12%	21.78%	14.10%	+1.39	-6.4	3
1993-11-21	@ Rabat Ajax	D 0-0	50.4	1008	1233	14.10%	21.78%	64.12%	-1.39	+6.4	1
1993-11-21	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-3	34.9	1282	1496	14.99%	21.84%	63.17%	-1.46	-24.2	3
1993-11-21	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 3-0	34.9	1496	1282	63.17%	21.84%	14.99%	+1.46	+24.2	8
1993-11-21	Birkirkara	L 0-1	48.4	1320	1200	54.30%	22.21%	23.49%	+0.71	-26.0	4
1993-11-21	@ St. Andrews	W 1-0	48.4	1200	1320	23.49%	22.21%	54.30%	-0.71	+26.0	4
1993-11-28	Zurrieq	L 0-2	45.9	1226	1101	54.83%	22.20%	22.97%	+0.74	-49.5	4
1993-11-28	@ Birkirkara	W 2-0	45.9	1101	1226	22.97%	22.20%	54.83%	-0.74	+49.5	4
1993-11-28	Hibernians	D 0-0	59.3	1520	1457	47.43%	22.34%	30.23%	+0.33	-2.0	9
1993-11-28	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 0-0	59.3	1457	1520	30.23%	22.34%	47.43%	-0.33	+2.0	10
1993-11-28	Floriana	L 0-1	32.2	1014	1555	2.69%	19.18%	78.13%	-3.60	-1.7	1
1993-11-28	@ Mqabba	W 1-0	32.2	1555	1014	78.13%	19.18%	2.69%	+3.60	+1.7	11
1993-11-28	St. Andrews	L 0-1	42.4	1258	1294	33.74%	22.37%	43.89%	-0.31	-17.5	3
1993-11-28	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 1-0	42.4	1294	1258	43.89%	22.37%	33.74%	+0.31	+17.5	6
1993-11-28	Rabat Ajax	W 2-0	35.7	1409	1227	60.54%	21.99%	17.47%	+1.11	+19.1	9
1993-11-28	@ Valletta	L 0-2	35.7	1227	1409	17.47%	21.99%	60.54%	-1.11	-19.1	3
1993-12-05	Rabat Ajax	W 3-0	40.5	1177	1208	34.41%	22.38%	43.22%	-0.28	+58.3	6
1993-12-05	@ Birkirkara	L 0-3	40.5	1208	1177	43.22%	22.38%	34.41%	+0.28	-58.3	3
1993-12-05	Hibernians	L 1-3	60.2	1557	1459	51.76%	22.27%	25.97%	+0.56	-40.6	11
1993-12-05	@ Floriana	W 3-1	60.2	1459	1557	25.97%	22.27%	51.76%	-0.56	+40.6	12
1993-12-05	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-4	30.2	1012	1240	13.94%	21.77%	64.30%	-1.56	-29.6	1
1993-12-05	@ Mqabba	W 4-0	30.2	1240	1012	64.30%	21.77%	13.94%	+1.56	+29.6	5
1993-12-05	Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	62.2	1428	1518	26.98%	22.29%	50.73%	-0.66	+2.5	10
1993-12-05	@ Valletta	D 1-1	62.2	1518	1428	50.73%	22.29%	26.98%	+0.66	-2.5	10
1993-12-05	St. Andrews	W 1-0	49.4	1151	1312	19.38%	22.08%	58.55%	-1.12	+28.0	6
1993-12-05	@ Zurrieq	L 0-1	49.4	1312	1151	58.55%	22.08%	19.38%	+1.12	-28.0	6
1994-01-09	Mqabba	W 2-0	29.7	1515	983	77.91%	19.27%	2.82%	+3.39	+3.3	12
1994-01-09	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-2	29.7	983	1515	2.82%	19.27%	77.91%	-3.39	-3.3	1
1994-01-09	Valletta	W 1-0	47.9	1500	1431	48.15%	22.33%	29.52%	+0.37	+15.7	14
1994-01-09	@ Hibernians	L 0-1	47.9	1431	1500	29.52%	22.33%	48.15%	-0.37	-15.7	10
1994-01-09	Zurrieq	W 1-0	44.6	1150	1179	34.73%	22.38%	42.89%	-0.26	+21.2	5
1994-01-09	@ Rabat Ajax	L 0-1	44.6	1179	1150	42.89%	22.38%	34.73%	+0.26	-21.2	6
1994-01-09	Birkirkara	W 2-0	40.0	1270	1235	43.76%	22.37%	33.87%	+0.15	+33.1	7
1994-01-09	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-2	40.0	1235	1270	33.87%	22.37%	43.76%	-0.15	-33.1	6
1994-01-09	Floriana	L 0-1	39.1	1284	1516	13.62%	21.74%	64.64%	-1.59	-8.1	6
1994-01-09	@ St. Andrews	W 1-0	39.1	1516	1284	64.64%	21.74%	13.62%	+1.59	+8.1	13
1994-01-16	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-1	36.1	1202	1519	8.82%	21.21%	69.97%	-2.14	-5.4	6
1994-01-16	@ Birkirkara	W 1-0	36.1	1519	1202	69.97%	21.21%	8.82%	+2.14	+5.4	14
1994-01-16	Rabat Ajax	W 3-0	31.0	1524	1171	71.79%	20.94%	7.27%	+2.23	+12.4	15
1994-01-16	@ Floriana	L 0-3	31.0	1171	1524	7.27%	20.94%	71.79%	-2.23	-12.4	5
1994-01-16	Hibernians	L 2-5	41.8	1276	1515	13.13%	21.70%	65.16%	-1.63	-15.7	6
1994-01-16	@ St. Andrews	W 5-2	41.8	1515	1276	65.16%	21.70%	13.13%	+1.63	+15.7	16
1994-01-16	Mqabba	W 2-0	30.3	1415	980	75.06%	20.23%	4.71%	+2.76	+5.5	12
1994-01-16	@ Valletta	L 0-2	30.3	980	1415	4.71%	20.23%	75.06%	-2.76	-5.5	1
1994-01-16	Sliema Wanderers	D 0-0	50.6	1157	1303	20.85%	22.13%	57.02%	-1.02	+4.5	7
1994-01-16	@ Zurrieq	D 0-0	50.6	1303	1157	57.02%	22.13%	20.85%	+1.02	-4.5	8
1994-01-30	Rabat Ajax	W 6-0	28.8	1531	1158	72.63%	20.78%	6.58%	+2.35	+21.4	18
1994-01-30	@ Hibernians	L 0-6	28.8	1158	1531	6.58%	20.78%	72.63%	-2.35	-21.4	5
1994-01-30	Birkirkara	L 0-3	31.6	974	1196	14.34%	21.80%	63.86%	-1.52	-23.3	1
1994-01-30	@ Mqabba	W 3-0	31.6	1196	974	63.86%	21.80%	14.34%	+1.52	+23.3	8
1994-01-30	Floriana	D 0-0	54.9	1299	1537	13.25%	21.71%	65.04%	-1.62	+6.7	9
1994-01-30	@ Sliema Wanderers	D 0-0	54.9	1537	1299	65.04%	21.71%	13.25%	+1.62	-6.7	16
1994-01-30	Valletta	L 0-2	36.7	1260	1421	19.39%	22.08%	58.53%	-1.12	-20.9	6
1994-01-30	@ St. Andrews	W 2-0	36.7	1421	1260	58.53%	22.08%	19.39%	+1.12	+20.9	14
1994-01-30	Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	56.4	1162	1524	6.96%	20.87%	72.18%	-2.43	+7.9	8
1994-01-30	@ Zurrieq	D 1-1	56.4	1524	1162	72.18%	20.87%	6.96%	+2.43	-7.9	15
1994-03-20	Floriana	D 0-0	61.9	1516	1530	36.83%	22.39%	40.78%	-0.17	+0.5	16
1994-03-20	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 0-0	61.9	1530	1516	40.78%	22.39%	36.83%	+0.17	-0.5	17
1994-03-20	Zurrieq	L 1-5	34.1	951	1170	14.58%	21.82%	63.60%	-1.50	-25.7	1
1994-03-20	@ Mqabba	W 5-1	34.1	1170	951	63.60%	21.82%	14.58%	+1.50	+25.7	10
1994-03-20	St. Andrews	D 0-0	50.4	1137	1239	25.50%	22.26%	52.24%	-0.74	+3.2	6
1994-03-20	@ Rabat Ajax	D 0-0	50.4	1239	1137	52.24%	22.26%	25.50%	+0.74	-3.2	7
1994-03-20	Hibernians	L 0-2	38.0	1305	1552	12.65%	21.66%	65.68%	-1.68	-14.3	9
1994-03-20	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 2-0	38.0	1552	1305	65.68%	21.66%	12.65%	+1.68	+14.3	20
1994-03-20	Birkirkara	W 8-0	31.6	1442	1220	63.85%	21.80%	14.35%	+1.37	+58.5	16
1994-03-20	@ Valletta	L 0-8	31.6	1220	1442	14.35%	21.80%	63.85%	-1.37	-58.5	8
1994-03-27	Mqabba	W 2-0	29.1	1530	925	79.60%	18.48%	1.92%	+3.86	+2.2	19
1994-03-27	@ Floriana	L 0-2	29.1	925	1530	1.92%	18.48%	79.60%	-3.86	-2.2	1
1994-03-27	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-3	54.1	1567	1517	45.75%	22.36%	31.89%	+0.25	-61.1	20
1994-03-27	@ Hibernians	W 3-0	54.1	1517	1567	31.89%	22.36%	45.75%	-0.25	+61.1	18
1994-03-27	Valletta	L 1-3	37.1	1140	1500	7.03%	20.88%	72.09%	-2.42	-7.1	6
1994-03-27	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-1	37.1	1500	1140	72.09%	20.88%	7.03%	+2.42	+7.1	18
1994-03-27	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-2	39.3	1236	1291	31.21%	22.35%	46.44%	-0.44	-31.0	7
1994-03-27	@ St. Andrews	W 2-0	39.3	1291	1236	46.44%	22.35%	31.21%	+0.44	+31.0	11
1994-03-27	Birkirkara	L 1-4	45.1	1195	1161	43.64%	22.37%	33.99%	+0.15	-49.5	10
1994-03-27	@ Zurrieq	W 4-1	45.1	1161	1195	33.99%	22.37%	43.64%	-0.15	+49.5	10
1994-04-03	Floriana	L 0-2	34.1	1211	1532	8.62%	21.18%	70.20%	-2.17	-10.0	10
1994-04-03	@ Birkirkara	W 2-0	34.1	1532	1211	70.20%	21.18%	8.62%	+2.17	+10.0	21
1994-04-03	St. Andrews	D 1-1	58.0	1578	1205	72.65%	20.78%	6.57%	+2.35	-8.0	19
1994-04-03	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	58.0	1205	1578	6.57%	20.78%	72.65%	-2.35	+8.0	8
1994-04-03	Hibernians	L 0-5	25.4	923	1506	2.15%	18.72%	79.12%	-3.87	-5.8	1
1994-04-03	@ Mqabba	W 5-0	25.4	1506	923	79.12%	18.72%	2.15%	+3.87	+5.8	22
1994-04-03	Rabat Ajax	D 1-1	54.7	1322	1133	61.12%	21.96%	16.92%	+1.15	-5.0	12
1994-04-03	@ Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	54.7	1133	1322	16.92%	21.96%	61.12%	-1.15	+5.0	7
1994-04-03	Zurrieq	W 3-2	43.7	1507	1146	72.15%	20.87%	6.98%	+2.28	+3.9	20
1994-04-03	@ Valletta	L 2-3	43.7	1146	1507	6.98%	20.87%	72.15%	-2.28	-3.9	10
1994-04-10	Zurrieq	W 2-0	32.2	1542	1142	73.74%	20.56%	5.70%	+2.53	+6.7	23
1994-04-10	@ Floriana	L 0-2	32.2	1142	1542	5.70%	20.56%	73.74%	-2.53	-6.7	10
1994-04-10	Birkirkara	W 6-2	36.3	1511	1201	69.64%	21.25%	9.10%	+1.95	+14.1	24
1994-04-10	@ Hibernians	L 2-6	36.3	1201	1511	9.10%	21.25%	69.64%	-1.95	-14.1	10
1994-04-10	Hamrun Spartans	D 2-2	61.7	1138	1570	4.81%	20.27%	74.92%	-2.88	+6.3	8
1994-04-10	@ Rabat Ajax	D 2-2	61.7	1570	1138	74.92%	20.27%	4.81%	+2.88	-6.4	20
1994-04-10	Valletta	L 1-2	45.4	1317	1511	16.50%	21.94%	61.57%	-1.34	-9.1	12
1994-04-10	@ Sliema Wanderers	W 2-1	45.4	1511	1317	61.57%	21.94%	16.50%	+1.34	+9.1	22
1994-04-10	Mqabba	W 3-0	30.1	1213	917	68.80%	21.36%	9.85%	+1.85	+16.5	10
1994-04-10	@ St. Andrews	L 0-3	30.1	917	1213	9.85%	21.36%	68.80%	-1.85	-16.5	1
1994-04-24	St. Andrews	L 1-2	46.3	1186	1229	32.85%	22.37%	44.78%	-0.35	-16.2	10
1994-04-24	@ Birkirkara	W 2-1	46.3	1229	1186	44.78%	22.37%	32.85%	+0.35	+16.1	12
1994-04-24	Sliema Wanderers	D 1-1	59.9	1563	1308	66.26%	21.61%	12.12%	+1.59	-6.3	21
1994-04-24	@ Hamrun Spartans	D 1-1	59.9	1308	1563	12.12%	21.61%	66.26%	-1.59	+6.3	13
1994-04-24	Rabat Ajax	L 2-4	41.5	901	1144	12.86%	21.68%	65.46%	-1.66	-11.2	1
1994-04-24	@ Mqabba	W 4-2	41.5	1144	901	65.46%	21.68%	12.86%	+1.66	+11.2	10
1994-04-24	Floriana	D 0-0	62.7	1520	1548	34.85%	22.38%	42.78%	-0.26	+0.9	23
1994-04-24	@ Valletta	D 0-0	62.7	1548	1520	42.78%	22.38%	34.85%	+0.26	-0.9	24
1994-04-24	Hibernians	D 2-2	61.0	1135	1526	6.00%	20.64%	73.37%	-2.61	+6.1	11
1994-04-24	@ Zurrieq	D 2-2	61.0	1526	1135	73.37%	20.64%	6.00%	+2.61	-6.1	25
1994-05-01	Valletta	L 1-2	62.3	1557	1521	43.83%	22.37%	33.79%	+0.16	-20.3	21
1994-05-01	@ Hamrun Spartans	W 2-1	62.3	1521	1557	33.79%	22.37%	43.83%	-0.16	+20.3	25
1994-05-01	Floriana	W 3-1	59.4	1519	1548	34.85%	22.38%	42.77%	-0.26	+34.4	27
1994-05-01	@ Hibernians	L 1-3	59.4	1548	1519	42.77%	22.38%	34.85%	+0.26	-34.5	24
1994-05-01	Birkirkara	L 1-2	47.4	1156	1170	36.73%	22.38%	40.89%	-0.17	-17.6	10
1994-05-01	@ Rabat Ajax	W 2-1	47.4	1170	1156	40.89%	22.38%	36.73%	+0.17	+17.6	12
1994-05-01	Mqabba	W 6-0	26.5	1314	889	74.68%	20.33%	4.99%	+2.69	+16.3	15
1994-05-01	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-6	26.5	889	1314	4.99%	20.33%	74.68%	-2.69	-16.3	1
1994-05-01	Zurrieq	D 0-0	50.4	1245	1141	52.47%	22.26%	25.28%	+0.60	-3.3	13
1994-05-01	@ St. Andrews	D 0-0	50.4	1141	1245	25.28%	22.26%	52.47%	-0.60	+3.3	12
1994-05-15	Sliema Wanderers	L 0-1	38.4	1188	1331	21.15%	22.14%	56.71%	-1.00	-11.9	12
1994-05-15	@ Birkirkara	W 1-0	38.4	1331	1188	56.71%	22.14%	21.15%	+1.00	+11.9	17
1994-05-15	St. Andrews	W 4-1	37.7	1513	1242	67.29%	21.52%	11.19%	+1.69	+15.7	26
1994-05-15	@ Floriana	L 1-4	37.7	1242	1513	11.19%	21.52%	67.29%	-1.69	-15.7	13
1994-05-15	Hamrun Spartans	L 0-8	25.3	873	1537	1.40%	17.79%	80.81%	-4.39	-5.8	1
1994-05-15	@ Mqabba	W 8-0	25.3	1537	873	80.81%	17.79%	1.40%	+4.39	+5.8	23
1994-05-15	Hibernians	L 3-4	68.0	1542	1554	37.04%	22.39%	40.57%	-0.16	-16.4	25
1994-05-15	@ Valletta	W 4-3	68.0	1554	1542	40.57%	22.39%	37.04%	+0.16	+16.4	29
1994-05-15	Rabat Ajax	W 2-1	47.7	1145	1138	39.76%	22.39%	37.85%	-0.03	+18.0	14
1994-05-15	@ Zurrieq	L 1-2	47.7	1138	1145	37.85%	22.39%	39.76%	+0.03	-18.0	10
1994-05-22	Birkirkara	W 3-0	31.1	1542	1176	72.37%	20.83%	6.79%	+2.31	+11.6	25
1994-05-22	@ Hamrun Spartans	L 0-3	31.1	1176	1542	6.79%	20.83%	72.37%	-2.31	-11.6	12
1994-05-22	St. Andrews	W 2-0	34.8	1570	1226	71.33%	21.01%	7.66%	+2.16	+8.9	31
1994-05-22	@ Hibernians	L 0-2	34.8	1226	1570	7.66%	21.01%	71.33%	-2.16	-8.9	13
1994-05-22	Valletta	L 0-4	25.4	867	1525	1.44%	17.86%	80.70%	-4.36	-3.1	1
1994-05-22	@ Mqabba	W 4-0	25.4	1525	867	80.70%	17.86%	1.44%	+4.36	+3.1	27
1994-05-22	Floriana	L 0-3	29.8	1120	1529	5.43%	20.48%	74.09%	-2.74	-9.3	10
1994-05-22	@ Rabat Ajax	W 3-0	29.8	1529	1120	74.09%	20.48%	5.43%	+2.74	+9.3	28
1994-05-22	Zurrieq	W 3-0	33.1	1343	1163	60.30%	22.00%	17.70%	+1.09	+28.0	19
1994-05-22	@ Sliema Wanderers	L 0-3	33.1	1163	1343	17.70%	22.00%	60.30%	-1.09	-28.0	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1993-12-05	19.38%	@ Zurrieq	1151	1	St. Andrews	1312	0
2	1993-11-28	22.97%	Zurrieq	1101	2	@ Birkirkara	1226	0
3	1993-11-21	23.49%	Birkirkara	1200	1	@ St. Andrews	1320	0
4	1993-12-05	25.97%	Hibernians	1459	3	@ Floriana	1557	1
5	1994-03-27	31.89%	Hamrun Spartans	1517	3	@ Hibernians	1567	0
6	1994-05-01	33.79%	Valletta	1521	2	@ Hamrun Spartans	1557	1
7	1994-03-27	33.99%	Birkirkara	1161	4	@ Zurrieq	1195	1
8	1993-12-05	34.41%	@ Birkirkara	1177	3	Rabat Ajax	1208	0
9	1993-11-07	34.59%	Sliema Wanderers	1237	2	@ Rabat Ajax	1267	0
10	1994-01-09	34.73%	@ Rabat Ajax	1150	1	Zurrieq	1179	0
11	1994-05-01	34.85%	@ Hibernians	1519	3	Floriana	1548	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1994-03-27	61.13	Hamrun Spartans	3	1517	31.89%	@ Hibernians	0	1567	45.75%	22.36%
2	1994-03-20	58.55	@ Valletta	8	1442	63.85%	Birkirkara	0	1220	14.35%	21.80%
3	1993-12-05	58.27	@ Birkirkara	3	1177	34.41%	Rabat Ajax	0	1208	43.22%	22.38%
4	1994-03-27	49.54	Birkirkara	4	1161	33.99%	@ Zurrieq	1	1195	43.64%	22.37%
5	1993-11-28	49.51	Zurrieq	2	1101	22.97%	@ Birkirkara	0	1226	54.83%	22.20%
6	1993-11-21	44.93	@ Floriana	3	1510	46.52%	Valletta	0	1454	31.13%	22.35%
7	1993-12-05	40.64	Hibernians	3	1459	25.97%	@ Floriana	1	1557	51.76%	22.27%
8	1993-11-07	39.98	Sliema Wanderers	2	1237	34.59%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1267	43.03%	22.38%
9	1993-11-07	36.36	Hamrun Spartans	3	1466	53.75%	@ St. Andrews	0	1351	24.02%	22.23%
10	1994-05-01	34.45	@ Hibernians	3	1519	34.85%	Floriana	1	1548	42.77%	22.38%
11	1994-01-09	33.09	@ Sliema Wanderers	2	1270	43.76%	Birkirkara	0	1235	33.87%	22.37%
12	1994-03-27	31.00	Sliema Wanderers	2	1291	46.44%	@ St. Andrews	0	1236	31.21%	22.35%
13	1993-12-05	29.63	Sliema Wanderers	4	1240	64.30%	@ Mqabba	0	1012	13.94%	21.77%
14	1994-05-22	28.03	@ Sliema Wanderers	3	1343	60.30%	Zurrieq	0	1163	17.70%	22.00%
15	1993-12-05	27.98	@ Zurrieq	1	1151	19.38%	St. Andrews	0	1312	58.55%	22.08%
16	1993-11-21	26.02	Birkirkara	1	1200	23.49%	@ St. Andrews	0	1320	54.30%	22.21%
17	1993-09-26	25.99	@ Floriana	3	1471	61.84%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1274	16.24%	21.92%
18	1994-03-20	25.72	Zurrieq	5	1170	63.60%	@ Mqabba	1	951	14.58%	21.82%
19	1993-09-26	24.41	@ Valletta	4	1401	45.79%	St. Andrews	2	1351	31.85%	22.36%
20	1993-11-21	24.21	Hamrun Spartans	3	1496	63.17%	@ Sliema Wanderers	0	1282	14.99%	21.84%
21	1993-10-03	24.19	@ St. Andrews	5	1326	43.80%	Rabat Ajax	3	1291	33.82%	22.37%
22	1993-10-03	23.80	Valletta	4	1426	60.14%	@ Birkirkara	1	1248	17.85%	22.01%
23	1994-01-30	23.27	Birkirkara	3	1196	63.86%	@ Mqabba	0	974	14.34%	21.80%
24	1994-01-30	21.44	@ Hibernians	6	1531	72.63%	Rabat Ajax	0	1158	6.58%	20.78%
25	1994-01-09	21.15	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1150	34.73%	Zurrieq	0	1179	42.89%	22.38%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1994-05-15	68.0	Hibernians	4	1554	40.57%	@ Valletta	3	1542	37.04%	22.39%
2	1994-04-24	62.7	@ Valletta	0	1520	34.85%	Floriana	0	1548	42.78%	22.38%
3	1994-05-01	62.3	Valletta	2	1521	33.79%	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1557	43.83%	22.37%
4	1993-12-05	62.2	@ Valletta	1	1428	26.98%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1518	50.73%	22.29%
5	1994-03-20	61.9	@ Hamrun Spartans	0	1516	36.83%	Floriana	0	1530	40.78%	22.39%
6	1994-04-10	61.7	@ Rabat Ajax	2	1138	4.81%	Hamrun Spartans	2	1570	74.92%	20.27%
7	1994-04-24	61.0	@ Zurrieq	2	1135	6.00%	Hibernians	2	1526	73.37%	20.64%
8	1993-12-05	60.2	Hibernians	3	1459	25.97%	@ Floriana	1	1557	51.76%	22.27%
9	1994-04-24	59.9	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1563	66.26%	Sliema Wanderers	1	1308	12.12%	21.61%
10	1994-05-01	59.4	@ Hibernians	3	1519	34.85%	Floriana	1	1548	42.77%	22.38%
11	1993-11-28	59.3	@ Hamrun Spartans	0	1520	47.43%	Hibernians	0	1457	30.23%	22.34%
12	1993-10-03	58.7	@ Floriana	0	1497	43.35%	Hamrun Spartans	0	1465	34.28%	22.37%
13	1994-04-03	58.0	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1578	72.65%	St. Andrews	1	1205	6.57%	20.78%
14	1993-11-14	56.8	@ Hamrun Spartans	1	1502	67.58%	Rabat Ajax	1	1227	10.93%	21.49%
15	1994-01-30	56.4	@ Zurrieq	1	1162	6.96%	Hamrun Spartans	1	1524	72.18%	20.87%
16	1993-09-26	56.1	@ Rabat Ajax	1	1287	23.08%	Hibernians	1	1411	54.71%	22.20%
17	1994-01-30	54.9	@ Sliema Wanderers	0	1299	13.25%	Floriana	0	1537	65.04%	21.71%
18	1994-04-03	54.7	@ Sliema Wanderers	1	1322	61.12%	Rabat Ajax	1	1133	16.92%	21.96%
19	1994-03-27	54.1	Hamrun Spartans	3	1517	31.89%	@ Hibernians	0	1567	45.75%	22.36%
20	1993-11-14	52.7	@ Valletta	0	1460	60.59%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1277	17.42%	21.99%
21	1993-10-03	51.0	@ St. Andrews	5	1326	43.80%	Rabat Ajax	3	1291	33.82%	22.37%
22	1994-01-16	50.6	@ Zurrieq	0	1157	20.85%	Sliema Wanderers	0	1303	57.02%	22.13%
23	1993-11-21	50.4	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1233	64.12%	Mqabba	0	1008	14.10%	21.78%
24	1994-03-20	50.4	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1137	25.50%	St. Andrews	0	1239	52.24%	22.26%
25	1994-05-01	50.4	@ St. Andrews	0	1245	52.47%	Zurrieq	0	1141	25.28%	22.26%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1994-05-15	25.3	Hamrun Spartans	8	1537	80.81%	@ Mqabba	0	873	1.40%	17.79%
2	1994-04-03	25.4	Hibernians	5	1506	79.12%	@ Mqabba	0	923	2.15%	18.72%
3	1994-05-22	25.4	Valletta	4	1525	80.70%	@ Mqabba	0	867	1.44%	17.86%
4	1994-05-01	26.5	@ Sliema Wanderers	6	1314	74.68%	Mqabba	0	889	4.99%	20.33%
5	1994-01-30	28.8	@ Hibernians	6	1531	72.63%	Rabat Ajax	0	1158	6.58%	20.78%
6	1994-03-27	29.1	@ Floriana	2	1530	79.60%	Mqabba	0	925	1.92%	18.48%
7	1994-01-09	29.7	@ Hamrun Spartans	2	1515	77.91%	Mqabba	0	983	2.82%	19.27%
8	1994-05-22	29.8	Floriana	3	1529	74.09%	@ Rabat Ajax	0	1120	5.43%	20.48%
9	1994-04-10	30.1	@ St. Andrews	3	1213	68.80%	Mqabba	0	917	9.85%	21.36%
10	1993-11-21	30.2	@ Hibernians	3	1443	70.53%	Zurrieq	0	1115	8.34%	21.13%
11	1993-12-05	30.2	Sliema Wanderers	4	1240	64.30%	@ Mqabba	0	1012	13.94%	21.77%
12	1994-01-16	30.3	@ Valletta	2	1415	75.06%	Mqabba	0	980	4.71%	20.23%
13	1993-11-07	30.8	@ Hibernians	2	1419	73.70%	Mqabba	0	1020	5.73%	20.56%
14	1994-01-16	31.0	@ Floriana	3	1524	71.79%	Rabat Ajax	0	1171	7.27%	20.94%
15	1994-05-22	31.1	@ Hamrun Spartans	3	1542	72.37%	Birkirkara	0	1176	6.79%	20.83%
16	1994-01-30	31.6	Birkirkara	3	1196	63.86%	@ Mqabba	0	974	14.34%	21.80%
17	1994-03-20	31.6	@ Valletta	8	1442	63.85%	Birkirkara	0	1220	14.35%	21.80%
18	1993-11-14	31.9	Floriana	2	1503	72.96%	@ Zurrieq	0	1123	6.32%	20.72%
19	1993-11-28	32.2	Floriana	1	1555	78.13%	@ Mqabba	0	1014	2.69%	19.18%
20	1994-04-10	32.2	@ Floriana	2	1542	73.74%	Zurrieq	0	1142	5.70%	20.56%
21	1993-11-07	32.5	Valletta	2	1449	69.96%	@ Zurrieq	0	1133	8.83%	21.21%
22	1994-05-22	33.1	@ Sliema Wanderers	3	1343	60.30%	Zurrieq	0	1163	17.70%	22.00%
23	1994-03-20	34.1	Zurrieq	5	1170	63.60%	@ Mqabba	1	951	14.58%	21.82%
24	1994-04-03	34.1	Floriana	2	1532	70.20%	@ Birkirkara	0	1211	8.62%	21.18%
25	1993-11-14	34.3	St. Andrews	1	1314	69.08%	@ Mqabba	0	1014	9.59%	21.32%