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1994-95 Maltese Premier League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Hibernians

43 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sliema Wanderers

6.98 points above expected

39 points · 32.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Georges

8.01 points below expected

2 points · 10.01 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hibernians 18 13 4 1 43 42 10 +32 38.31 +4.69
2 Sliema Wanderers 18 12 3 3 39 55 22 +33 32.02 +6.98
3 Valletta 18 11 4 3 37 45 12 +33 36.25 +0.75
4 Floriana 18 10 5 3 35 33 13 +20 35.44 -0.44
5 Hamrun Spartans 18 10 2 6 32 33 23 +10 35.21 -3.21
6 Birkirkara 18 5 6 7 21 17 24 -7 20.98 +0.02
7 Zurrieq 18 6 2 10 20 18 36 -18 19.38 +0.62
8 Naxxar Lions 18 4 3 11 15 15 37 -22 11.16 +3.84
9 Pieta Hotspurs 18 2 3 13 9 11 40 -29 15.32 -6.32
10 St. Georges 18 0 2 16 2 4 56 -52 10.01 -8.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 39 32.02 +6.98
2 Hibernians 43 38.31 +4.69
3 Naxxar Lions 15 11.16 +3.84
4 Valletta 37 36.25 +0.75
5 Zurrieq 20 19.38 +0.62

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Georges 2 10.01 -8.01
2 Pieta Hotspurs 9 15.32 -6.32
3 Hamrun Spartans 32 35.21 -3.21
4 Floriana 35 35.44 -0.44
5 Birkirkara 21 20.98 +0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernians 7 Oct 9 – Jan 22 1 in 27
2 Sliema Wanderers 5 Apr 9 – May 14 1 in 8
3 Birkirkara 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 8
4 Floriana 4 Oct 30 – Jan 8 1 in 8
5 Hamrun Spartans 4 Sep 25 – Oct 30 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Georges 13 Oct 9 – May 7 1 in 138
2 Pieta Hotspurs 6 Apr 9 – May 21 1 in 10
3 Floriana 2 Oct 2 – Oct 9 1 in 9
4 Hamrun Spartans 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 8
5 Hibernians 1 Feb 19 – Feb 19 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floriana 13 Oct 30 – May 14 1 in 24
2 Sliema Wanderers 6 Nov 27 – Feb 19 1 in 8
3 Birkirkara 3 Feb 19 – Apr 9 1 in 7
4 Hibernians 10 Sep 18 – Jan 22 1 in 7
5 Valletta 8 Jan 8 – Apr 23 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernians 3 Feb 19 – Apr 9 1 in 16
2 Pieta Hotspurs 9 Sep 18 – Jan 15 1 in 15
3 Valletta 2 May 7 – May 14 1 in 13
4 St. Georges 18 Sep 18 – May 21 1 in 11
5 Birkirkara 6 Dec 4 – Apr 2 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hibernians 1590 43 +41 15 11.0 +4.0
Sliema Wanderers 1475 39 +13 12 9.9 +2.1
Valletta 1617 37 +47 10 10.7 -0.7
Floriana 1501 35 -24 10 11.6 -1.6
Hamrun Spartans 1436 32 -20 7 7.8 -0.8
Birkirkara 1222 21 -22 6 5.8 +0.2
Zurrieq 1184 20 +11 6 5.4 +0.6
Naxxar Lions 1092 15 +50 6 2.9 +3.1
Pieta Hotspurs 1051 9 -60 0 3.1 -3.1
St. Georges 916 2 -38 1 2.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB NL PH SW SG VAL ZUR
Birkirkara —
0-0-2
1.06
1-0-1
1.11
0-2-0
0.96
1-1-0
4.19
1-1-0
3.90
0-1-1
1.33
2-0-0
4.43
0-0-2
1.01
0-1-1
3.11
Floriana
2-0-0
4.58
 —
1-1-0
3.00
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
5.13
2-0-0
4.89
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
5.14
0-2-0
2.81
2-0-0
4.73
Hamrun Spartans
1-0-1
4.52
0-1-1
2.60
 —
0-0-2
2.11
2-0-0
5.07
2-0-0
4.85
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
5.13
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
4.45
Hibernians
0-2-0
4.68
1-1-0
3.08
2-0-0
3.50
 —
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
5.03
0-1-1
3.90
2-0-0
5.38
2-0-0
2.82
2-0-0
4.77
Naxxar Lions
0-1-1
1.43
1-1-0
0.56
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
0.52
 —
0-1-1
2.16
0-0-2
0.68
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
0.52
1-0-1
1.53
Pieta Hotspurs
0-1-1
1.71
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-2
0.81
0-0-2
0.65
1-1-0
3.45
 —
0-0-2
1.04
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
0.84
0-0-2
2.17
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
4.30
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
1.71
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
4.60
 —
2-0-0
4.88
0-1-1
2.45
2-0-0
4.45
St. Georges
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
0.56
0-0-2
0.57
0-0-2
0.37
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
1.79
0-0-2
0.78
 —
0-1-1
0.43
0-0-2
1.46
Valletta
2-0-0
4.63
0-2-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
4.81
1-1-0
3.16
1-1-0
5.31
 —
2-0-0
4.68
Zurrieq
1-1-0
2.49
0-0-2
0.92
0-1-1
1.19
0-0-2
0.89
1-0-1
4.08
2-0-0
3.43
0-0-2
1.19
2-0-0
4.16
0-0-2
0.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +7.8
Allowed 0.89 -8.9
Differential 0.97 +4.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%6.11%5.00%4.44%2.22%5.56%35.56%
16.11%4.44%5.00%7.78%1.11%1.67%26.11%
25.00%5.00%2.22%0.56%—1.11%13.89%
34.44%7.78%0.56%———12.78%
42.22%1.11%————3.33%
5+5.56%1.67%1.11%———8.33%
Total35.56%26.11%13.89%12.78%3.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.67 1.67 2.73
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%——5.56%5.56%38.89%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.33 -0.39
SD 1.00 1.64 2.12
CV 1.06 1.23 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
111.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total55.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.72 +1.11
SD 1.47 0.96 1.91
CV 0.80 1.33 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%—11.11%——5.56%22.22%
2—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
316.67%11.11%————27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.28 +0.56
SD 1.38 1.71 2.41
CV 0.75 1.34 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total61.11%27.78%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.56 +1.78
SD 1.94 0.86 2.26
CV 0.83 1.54 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%11.11%11.11%44.44%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%—22.22%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.06 -1.22
SD 0.92 1.70 2.29
CV 1.11 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%16.67%—5.56%55.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%——33.33%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%33.33%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.61 2.22 -1.61
SD 0.85 1.63 1.82
CV 1.39 0.73 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————5.56%16.67%
1———11.11%——11.11%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+16.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.22 +1.83
SD 2.15 1.40 2.98
CV 0.71 1.14 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%16.67%77.78%
1———11.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%5.56%22.22%27.78%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.22 3.11 -2.89
SD 0.43 1.97 1.91
CV 1.93 0.63 —
Max 1 7 +0
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+16.67%11.11%————27.78%
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.67 +1.83
SD 2.18 0.77 2.31
CV 0.87 1.15 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—11.11%44.44%
15.56%——11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.00 -1.00
SD 1.14 1.97 2.57
CV 1.14 0.99 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1617 37 36.25 +0.75 50.0% 22 26 33 37 40 43 48
Hibernians 1590 43 38.31 +4.69 84.0% 24 30 35 39 42 46 48
Floriana 1501 35 35.44 -0.44 48.0% 22 27 32 36 39 44 47
Sliema Wanderers 1475 39 32.02 +6.98 89.0% 19 22 28 31 36 42 47
Hamrun Spartans 1436 32 35.21 -3.21 30.0% 16 27 32 36 38 45 50
Birkirkara 1222 21 20.98 +0.02 52.0% 9 13 17 21 24 29 33
Zurrieq 1184 20 19.38 +0.62 63.0% 9 12 16 19 22 27 35
Naxxar Lions 1092 15 11.16 +3.84 83.0% 1 4 8 11 14 18 23
Pieta Hotspurs 1051 9 15.32 -6.32 9.0% 7 9 13 15 17 23 34
St. Georges 916 2 10.01 -8.01 1.0% 2 4 7 10 12 16 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.78%
No Edge
36.67%18.89%44.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -27.08 Elo pts.
157 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.32 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Hibernians, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.9 * Some Luck: 3.9 to 5.85 * Lucky: 5.85 to 7.8 * Wild Swing: 7.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.82 * Close: 0.82 to 1.23 * Off: 1.23 to 1.64 * Way Off: 1.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.48 points
Some Luck
04.8712
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.022.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
Sliema Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
St. Georges
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 246.19
2.40
Wide Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Few
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.58
Lopsided
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.99
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Near-Lock
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
7%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.57
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.081
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Hibernians37.00%23.00%18.00%17.00%3.00%2.00%————
Sliema Wanderers9.00%9.00%13.00%20.00%42.00%7.00%————
Valletta27.00%25.00%19.00%17.00%12.00%—————
Floriana14.00%21.00%23.00%23.00%15.00%3.00%1.00%———
Hamrun Spartans13.00%21.00%25.00%22.00%16.00%2.00%—1.00%——
Birkirkara———1.00%9.00%46.00%28.00%11.00%4.00%1.00%
Zurrieq—1.00%1.00%—3.00%31.00%38.00%19.00%6.00%1.00%
Naxxar Lions—————2.00%7.00%17.00%38.00%36.00%
Pieta Hotspurs——1.00%——6.00%22.00%40.00%23.00%8.00%
St. Georges—————1.00%4.00%12.00%29.00%54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Birkirkara 95.00% 5.00%
Zurrieq 93.00% 7.00%
Pieta Hotspurs 69.00% 31.00%
Naxxar Lions 26.00% 74.00%
St. Georges 17.00% 83.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1994-09-18 Birkirkara L 1-258.3 1502 1227 69.91% 18.19% 11.90%+1.58 -22.9 0
1994-09-18 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-158.3 1227 1502 11.90% 18.19% 69.91%-1.58 +22.9 3
1994-09-18 Zurrieq W 3-138.5 1521 1208 72.43% 17.69% 9.88%+1.82 +6.8 3
1994-09-18 @ Hibernians L 1-338.5 1208 1521 9.88% 17.69% 72.43%-1.82 -6.8 0
1994-09-18 Naxxar Lions D 1-154.7 1174 1047 56.50% 19.62% 23.88%+0.64 -2.7 1
1994-09-18 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 1-154.7 1047 1174 23.88% 19.62% 56.50%-0.64 +2.6 1
1994-09-18 St. Georges W 6-131.2 1366 1065 71.71% 17.85% 10.45%+1.75 +16.1 3
1994-09-18 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-631.2 1065 1366 10.45% 17.85% 71.71%-1.75 -16.1 0
1994-09-18 Floriana D 2-268.6 1484 1490 39.11% 20.04% 40.85%-0.21 +0.1 1
1994-09-18 @ Valletta D 2-268.6 1490 1484 40.85% 20.04% 39.11%+0.21 -0.1 1
1994-09-25 Zurrieq L 1-249.9 1250 1201 46.80% 19.98% 33.22%+0.14 -15.8 3
1994-09-25 @ Birkirkara W 2-149.9 1201 1250 33.22% 19.98% 46.80%-0.14 +15.8 3
1994-09-25 St. Georges W 4-026.8 1490 1049 79.10% 15.72% 5.19%+2.64 +7.7 4
1994-09-25 @ Floriana L 0-426.8 1049 1490 5.19% 15.72% 79.10%-2.64 -7.7 0
1994-09-25 Naxxar Lions W 3-028.1 1479 1050 78.61% 15.90% 5.49%+2.56 +6.2 3
1994-09-25 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-328.1 1050 1479 5.49% 15.90% 78.61%-2.56 -6.2 1
1994-09-25 Hibernians D 2-266.5 1382 1528 21.97% 19.49% 58.53%-1.10 +2.2 4
1994-09-25 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-266.5 1528 1382 58.53% 19.49% 21.97%+1.10 -2.2 4
1994-09-25 Pieta Hotspurs W 2-032.5 1484 1171 72.42% 17.69% 9.89%+1.82 +7.9 4
1994-09-25 @ Valletta L 0-232.5 1171 1484 9.89% 17.69% 72.42%-1.82 -7.8 1
1994-10-02 Birkirkara D 1-157.9 1526 1235 71.02% 17.98% 11.00%+1.68 -5.2 5
1994-10-02 @ Hibernians D 1-157.9 1235 1526 11.00% 17.98% 71.02%-1.68 +5.2 4
1994-10-02 Zurrieq L 0-136.4 1043 1217 19.30% 19.27% 61.43%-1.28 -7.9 1
1994-10-02 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-036.4 1217 1043 61.43% 19.27% 19.30%+1.28 +7.9 6
1994-10-02 Floriana W 2-157.7 1384 1497 25.42% 19.71% 54.87%-0.89 +18.2 7
1994-10-02 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-257.7 1497 1384 54.87% 19.71% 25.42%+0.89 -18.2 4
1994-10-02 Pieta Hotspurs D 0-050.7 1041 1163 24.37% 19.65% 55.98%-0.95 +2.9 1
1994-10-02 @ St. Georges D 0-050.7 1163 1041 55.98% 19.65% 24.37%+0.95 -2.9 2
1994-10-02 Hamrun Spartans L 0-152.2 1492 1486 40.85% 20.04% 39.11%-0.13 -14.9 4
1994-10-02 @ Valletta W 1-052.2 1486 1492 39.11% 20.04% 40.85%+0.13 +14.9 6
1994-10-09 Naxxar Lions D 1-154.9 1240 1035 64.28% 18.99% 16.74%+1.13 -4.0 5
1994-10-09 @ Birkirkara D 1-154.9 1035 1240 16.74% 18.99% 64.28%-1.13 +4.0 2
1994-10-09 Hibernians L 1-255.8 1479 1520 34.24% 19.99% 45.77%-0.43 -12.2 4
1994-10-09 @ Floriana W 2-155.8 1520 1479 45.77% 19.99% 34.24%+0.43 +12.2 8
1994-10-09 St. Georges W 3-027.8 1500 1044 79.75% 15.45% 4.79%+2.74 +5.4 9
1994-10-09 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-327.8 1044 1500 4.79% 15.45% 79.75%-2.74 -5.4 1
1994-10-09 Sliema Wanderers L 0-629.8 1161 1403 13.97% 18.59% 67.44%-1.71 -30.6 2
1994-10-09 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 6-029.8 1403 1161 67.44% 18.59% 13.97%+1.71 +30.6 10
1994-10-09 Valletta L 0-530.9 1225 1477 13.33% 18.47% 68.19%-1.78 -24.6 6
1994-10-09 @ Zurrieq W 5-030.9 1477 1225 68.19% 18.47% 13.33%+1.78 +24.6 7
1994-10-30 Pieta Hotspurs W 3-029.9 1467 1130 73.89% 17.35% 8.76%+1.97 +10.1 7
1994-10-30 @ Floriana L 0-329.9 1130 1467 8.76% 17.35% 73.89%-1.97 -10.1 2
1994-10-30 Sliema Wanderers W 3-150.7 1506 1433 49.95% 19.90% 30.15%+0.29 +19.0 12
1994-10-30 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-350.7 1433 1506 30.15% 19.90% 49.95%-0.29 -19.0 10
1994-10-30 Naxxar Lions W 3-134.3 1533 1039 81.19% 14.83% 3.98%+2.97 +2.7 11
1994-10-30 @ Hibernians L 1-334.3 1039 1533 3.98% 14.83% 81.19%-2.97 -2.7 2
1994-10-30 Birkirkara W 3-139.6 1501 1236 69.24% 18.31% 12.46%+1.52 +8.5 10
1994-10-30 @ Valletta L 1-339.6 1236 1501 12.46% 18.31% 69.24%-1.52 -8.5 5
1994-10-30 St. Georges W 3-139.9 1200 1038 60.25% 19.37% 20.39%+0.86 +13.5 9
1994-10-30 @ Zurrieq L 1-339.9 1038 1200 20.39% 19.37% 60.25%-0.86 -13.5 1
1994-11-27 St. Georges W 2-033.7 1227 1025 64.10% 19.01% 16.89%+1.12 +13.2 8
1994-11-27 @ Birkirkara L 0-233.7 1025 1227 16.89% 19.01% 64.10%-1.12 -13.2 1
1994-11-27 Hamrun Spartans W 2-159.6 1477 1525 33.35% 19.98% 46.67%-0.48 +15.7 10
1994-11-27 @ Floriana L 1-259.6 1525 1477 46.67% 19.98% 33.35%+0.48 -15.7 12
1994-11-27 Pieta Hotspurs W 3-029.1 1535 1120 77.95% 16.14% 5.91%+2.47 +6.7 14
1994-11-27 @ Hibernians L 0-329.1 1120 1535 5.91% 16.14% 77.95%-2.47 -6.7 2
1994-11-27 Zurrieq W 4-137.9 1414 1214 63.90% 19.03% 17.07%+1.10 +16.3 13
1994-11-27 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-437.9 1214 1414 17.07% 19.03% 63.90%-1.10 -16.3 9
1994-11-27 Naxxar Lions W 3-240.8 1510 1037 80.42% 15.18% 4.41%+2.84 +1.6 13
1994-11-27 @ Valletta L 2-340.8 1037 1510 4.41% 15.18% 80.42%-2.84 -1.6 2
1994-12-04 Zurrieq W 1-035.2 1493 1198 71.29% 17.93% 10.78%+1.71 +4.5 13
1994-12-04 @ Floriana L 0-135.2 1198 1493 10.78% 17.93% 71.29%-1.71 -4.5 9
1994-12-04 Pieta Hotspurs W 2-137.5 1509 1113 77.04% 16.45% 6.51%+2.35 +2.6 15
1994-12-04 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-237.5 1113 1509 6.51% 16.45% 77.04%-2.35 -2.6 2
1994-12-04 Valletta W 1-053.5 1542 1511 44.29% 20.01% 35.70%+0.02 +13.4 17
1994-12-04 @ Hibernians L 0-153.5 1511 1542 35.70% 20.01% 44.29%-0.02 -13.4 13
1994-12-04 St. Georges W 2-039.8 1035 1012 43.31% 20.02% 36.67%-0.02 +25.8 5
1994-12-04 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-239.8 1012 1035 36.67% 20.02% 43.31%+0.02 -25.8 1
1994-12-04 Birkirkara D 0-052.4 1430 1240 62.98% 19.12% 17.90%+1.04 -4.2 14
1994-12-04 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-052.4 1240 1430 17.90% 19.12% 62.98%-1.04 +4.2 9
1995-01-08 Birkirkara W 2-141.6 1497 1245 68.28% 18.46% 13.26%+1.44 +5.2 16
1995-01-08 @ Floriana L 1-241.6 1245 1497 13.26% 18.46% 68.28%-1.44 -5.2 9
1995-01-08 Hamrun Spartans W 1-053.4 1555 1512 46.09% 19.99% 33.92%+0.11 +12.8 20
1995-01-08 @ Hibernians L 0-153.4 1512 1555 33.92% 19.99% 46.09%-0.11 -12.8 15
1995-01-08 Naxxar Lions W 4-027.7 1426 1061 75.47% 16.93% 7.60%+2.15 +11.4 17
1995-01-08 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-427.7 1061 1426 7.60% 16.93% 75.47%-2.15 -11.4 5
1995-01-08 St. Georges W 3-026.9 1498 986 81.89% 14.50% 3.61%+3.09 +4.0 16
1995-01-08 @ Valletta L 0-326.9 986 1498 3.61% 14.50% 81.89%-3.09 -4.0 1
1995-01-08 Pieta Hotspurs W 2-037.6 1193 1111 51.19% 19.86% 28.94%+0.35 +21.2 12
1995-01-08 @ Zurrieq L 0-237.6 1111 1193 28.94% 19.86% 51.19%-0.35 -21.2 2
1995-01-15 Pieta Hotspurs D 0-050.8 1239 1089 58.99% 19.46% 21.55%+0.78 -3.4 10
1995-01-15 @ Birkirkara D 0-050.8 1089 1239 21.55% 19.46% 58.99%-0.78 +3.4 3
1995-01-15 Naxxar Lions D 1-156.5 1502 1050 79.60% 15.52% 4.88%+2.71 -6.5 17
1995-01-15 @ Floriana D 1-156.5 1050 1502 4.88% 15.52% 79.60%-2.71 +6.5 6
1995-01-15 Zurrieq D 0-053.2 1499 1214 70.58% 18.07% 11.35%+1.64 -5.7 16
1995-01-15 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-053.2 1214 1499 11.35% 18.07% 70.58%-1.64 +5.7 13
1995-01-15 St. Georges W 7-024.8 1568 982 84.33% 13.20% 2.47%+3.56 +5.9 23
1995-01-15 @ Hibernians L 0-724.8 982 1568 2.47% 13.20% 84.33%-3.56 -5.9 1
1995-01-15 Sliema Wanderers D 0-058.4 1502 1438 48.87% 19.93% 31.20%+0.24 -1.5 17
1995-01-15 @ Valletta D 0-058.4 1438 1502 31.20% 19.93% 48.87%-0.24 +1.5 18
1995-01-22 Hamrun Spartans L 1-241.3 1236 1493 12.97% 18.41% 68.62%-1.81 -5.1 10
1995-01-22 @ Birkirkara W 2-141.3 1493 1236 68.62% 18.41% 12.97%+1.81 +5.1 19
1995-01-22 Pieta Hotspurs L 1-344.4 1056 1093 34.84% 20.00% 45.16%-0.41 -21.4 6
1995-01-22 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-144.4 1093 1056 45.16% 20.00% 34.84%+0.41 +21.4 6
1995-01-22 Sliema Wanderers L 0-229.1 976 1439 4.64% 15.35% 80.02%-3.12 -3.6 1
1995-01-22 @ St. Georges W 2-029.1 1439 976 80.02% 15.35% 4.64%+3.12 +3.6 21
1995-01-22 Hibernians L 0-530.5 1220 1574 8.04% 17.10% 74.86%-2.43 -14.9 13
1995-01-22 @ Zurrieq W 5-030.5 1574 1220 74.86% 17.10% 8.04%+2.43 +14.9 26
1995-02-19 Sliema Wanderers L 1-362.5 1589 1443 58.60% 19.49% 21.91%+0.76 -33.5 26
1995-02-19 @ Hibernians W 3-162.5 1443 1589 21.91% 19.49% 58.60%-0.76 +33.5 24
1995-02-19 Hamrun Spartans L 0-426.5 1035 1498 4.62% 15.34% 80.04%-3.13 -6.8 6
1995-02-19 @ Naxxar Lions W 4-026.5 1498 1035 80.04% 15.34% 4.62%+3.13 +6.8 22
1995-02-19 Valletta L 1-336.0 1114 1500 6.84% 16.60% 76.56%-2.63 -4.7 6
1995-02-19 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-136.0 1500 1114 76.56% 16.60% 6.84%+2.63 +4.7 20
1995-02-19 Floriana L 0-525.1 972 1496 3.40% 14.30% 82.29%-3.51 -6.1 1
1995-02-19 @ St. Georges W 5-025.1 1496 972 82.29% 14.30% 3.40%+3.51 +6.0 20
1995-02-19 Birkirkara D 0-050.8 1205 1231 36.37% 20.02% 43.61%-0.34 +0.6 14
1995-02-19 @ Zurrieq D 0-050.8 1231 1205 43.61% 20.02% 36.37%+0.34 -0.6 11
1995-03-25 Valletta D 0-060.8 1502 1505 39.53% 20.04% 40.43%-0.19 +0.1 21
1995-03-25 @ Floriana D 0-060.8 1505 1502 40.43% 20.04% 39.53%+0.19 -0.1 21
1995-04-02 Hibernians D 0-054.6 1230 1555 9.28% 17.51% 73.21%-2.24 +6.2 12
1995-04-02 @ Birkirkara D 0-054.6 1555 1230 73.21% 17.51% 9.28%+2.24 -6.2 27
1995-04-02 Sliema Wanderers W 3-154.0 1502 1476 43.66% 20.02% 36.32%-0.01 +22.2 24
1995-04-02 @ Floriana L 1-354.0 1476 1502 36.32% 20.02% 43.66%+0.01 -22.2 24
1995-04-02 Valletta L 1-650.9 1505 1505 39.98% 20.04% 39.98%-0.17 -53.5 22
1995-04-02 @ Hamrun Spartans W 6-150.9 1505 1505 39.98% 20.04% 39.98%+0.17 +53.6 24
1995-04-02 St. Georges W 1-037.3 1110 966 58.27% 19.51% 22.22%+0.74 +8.9 9
1995-04-02 @ Pieta Hotspurs L 0-137.3 966 1110 22.22% 19.51% 58.27%-0.74 -8.9 1
1995-04-02 Naxxar Lions L 0-149.2 1206 1028 61.83% 19.23% 18.94%+0.96 -21.6 14
1995-04-02 @ Zurrieq W 1-049.2 1028 1206 18.94% 19.23% 61.83%-0.96 +21.6 9
1995-04-09 Floriana D 0-063.2 1549 1524 43.53% 20.02% 36.45%-0.01 -0.6 28
1995-04-09 @ Hibernians D 0-063.2 1524 1549 36.45% 20.02% 43.53%+0.01 +0.6 25
1995-04-09 Birkirkara L 0-136.1 1049 1236 18.16% 19.15% 62.68%-1.36 -7.5 9
1995-04-09 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-036.1 1236 1049 62.68% 19.15% 18.16%+1.36 +7.5 15
1995-04-09 Pieta Hotspurs W 5-237.6 1454 1119 73.81% 17.37% 8.82%+1.96 +7.4 27
1995-04-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-537.6 1119 1454 8.82% 17.37% 73.81%-1.96 -7.4 9
1995-04-09 Hamrun Spartans L 1-431.8 957 1452 3.96% 14.82% 81.23%-3.32 -3.7 1
1995-04-09 @ St. Georges W 4-131.8 1452 957 81.23% 14.82% 3.96%+3.32 +3.7 25
1995-04-09 Zurrieq W 6-132.2 1559 1184 75.96% 16.79% 7.26%+2.21 +11.1 27
1995-04-09 @ Valletta L 1-632.2 1184 1559 7.26% 16.79% 75.96%-2.21 -11.1 14
1995-04-16 Valletta L 0-136.8 1244 1570 9.25% 17.50% 73.25%-2.25 -3.9 15
1995-04-16 @ Birkirkara W 1-036.8 1570 1244 73.25% 17.50% 9.25%+2.25 +3.9 30
1995-04-16 Hibernians L 0-131.2 1042 1549 3.71% 14.60% 81.69%-3.40 -1.5 9
1995-04-16 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-031.2 1549 1042 81.69% 14.60% 3.71%+3.40 +1.5 31
1995-04-16 Floriana L 0-132.6 1111 1525 5.95% 16.16% 77.88%-2.81 -2.5 9
1995-04-16 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 1-032.6 1525 1111 77.88% 16.16% 5.95%+2.81 +2.5 28
1995-04-16 Hamrun Spartans W 5-253.6 1461 1455 40.87% 20.04% 39.10%-0.13 +28.8 30
1995-04-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-553.6 1455 1461 39.10% 20.04% 40.87%+0.13 -28.8 25
1995-04-16 Zurrieq L 1-338.2 954 1173 15.58% 18.83% 65.59%-1.57 -10.6 1
1995-04-16 @ St. Georges W 3-138.2 1173 954 65.59% 18.83% 15.58%+1.57 +10.6 17
1995-04-23 Floriana D 0-058.9 1426 1527 26.78% 19.77% 53.45%-0.82 +2.4 26
1995-04-23 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-058.9 1527 1426 53.45% 19.77% 26.78%+0.82 -2.4 29
1995-04-23 Valletta L 0-525.7 1040 1574 3.24% 14.13% 82.63%-3.57 -5.7 9
1995-04-23 @ Naxxar Lions W 5-025.7 1574 1040 82.63% 14.13% 3.24%+3.57 +5.7 33
1995-04-23 Hibernians L 0-230.5 1109 1550 5.17% 15.71% 79.12%-2.98 -4.0 9
1995-04-23 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 2-030.5 1550 1109 79.12% 15.71% 5.17%+2.98 +4.0 34
1995-04-23 Birkirkara L 0-329.7 943 1240 10.69% 17.91% 71.40%-2.06 -12.3 1
1995-04-23 @ St. Georges W 3-029.7 1240 943 71.40% 17.91% 10.69%+2.06 +12.3 18
1995-04-23 Sliema Wanderers L 1-337.9 1184 1490 10.18% 17.77% 72.05%-2.13 -7.0 17
1995-04-23 @ Zurrieq W 3-137.9 1490 1184 72.05% 17.77% 10.18%+2.13 +7.0 33
1995-05-07 Sliema Wanderers L 0-631.7 1252 1497 13.76% 18.55% 67.69%-1.73 -30.1 18
1995-05-07 @ Birkirkara W 6-031.7 1497 1252 67.69% 18.55% 13.76%+1.73 +30.1 36
1995-05-07 Hamrun Spartans L 1-336.5 1105 1429 9.33% 17.53% 73.14%-2.24 -6.4 9
1995-05-07 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-136.5 1429 1105 73.14% 17.53% 9.33%+2.24 +6.4 29
1995-05-07 Naxxar Lions L 0-236.7 931 1035 26.44% 19.76% 53.81%-0.83 -19.6 1
1995-05-07 @ St. Georges W 2-036.7 1035 931 53.81% 19.76% 26.44%+0.83 +19.6 12
1995-05-07 Hibernians L 1-263.2 1579 1554 43.56% 20.02% 36.42%-0.01 -14.8 33
1995-05-07 @ Valletta W 2-163.2 1554 1579 36.42% 20.02% 43.56%+0.01 +14.8 37
1995-05-07 Floriana L 0-232.4 1177 1525 8.27% 17.18% 74.55%-2.39 -6.6 17
1995-05-07 @ Zurrieq W 2-032.4 1525 1177 74.55% 17.18% 8.27%+2.39 +6.6 32
1995-05-14 Floriana L 0-431.0 1222 1532 10.04% 17.74% 72.23%-2.14 -15.1 18
1995-05-14 @ Birkirkara W 4-031.0 1532 1222 72.23% 17.74% 10.04%+2.14 +15.1 35
1995-05-14 Hibernians L 0-245.8 1435 1569 23.18% 19.58% 57.24%-1.02 -17.5 29
1995-05-14 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-045.8 1569 1435 57.24% 19.58% 23.18%+1.02 +17.5 40
1995-05-14 Sliema Wanderers L 0-526.1 1054 1527 4.41% 15.18% 80.42%-3.19 -8.0 12
1995-05-14 @ Naxxar Lions W 5-026.1 1527 1054 80.42% 15.18% 4.41%+3.19 +8.0 39
1995-05-14 Zurrieq L 0-336.2 1098 1170 30.26% 19.90% 49.84%-0.63 -32.0 9
1995-05-14 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-036.2 1170 1098 49.84% 19.90% 30.26%+0.63 +32.0 20
1995-05-14 Valletta D 0-053.3 911 1565 1.74% 12.03% 86.23%-4.33 +8.1 2
1995-05-14 @ St. Georges D 0-053.3 1565 911 86.23% 12.03% 1.74%+4.33 -8.1 34
1995-05-21 Floriana W 3-157.6 1046 1547 3.84% 14.71% 81.46%-3.36 +45.4 15
1995-05-21 @ Naxxar Lions L 1-357.6 1547 1046 81.46% 14.71% 3.84%+3.36 -45.4 35
1995-05-21 Birkirkara L 1-340.6 1066 1207 22.46% 19.53% 58.01%-1.07 -14.7 9
1995-05-21 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-140.6 1207 1066 58.01% 19.53% 22.46%+1.07 +14.8 21
1995-05-21 Valletta L 0-549.9 1535 1556 36.99% 20.03% 42.99%-0.31 -60.8 39
1995-05-21 @ Sliema Wanderers W 5-049.9 1556 1535 42.99% 20.03% 36.99%+0.31 +60.7 37
1995-05-21 Hibernians L 0-623.8 919 1587 1.62% 11.79% 86.59%-4.42 -3.2 2
1995-05-21 @ St. Georges W 6-023.8 1587 919 86.59% 11.79% 1.62%+4.42 +3.2 43
1995-05-21 Hamrun Spartans L 0-332.6 1202 1418 15.85% 18.87% 65.28%-1.55 -18.0 20
1995-05-21 @ Zurrieq W 3-032.6 1418 1202 65.28% 18.87% 15.85%+1.55 +18.0 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-05-21 3.84% @ Naxxar Lions 1046 3 Floriana 1547 1
2 1994-09-18 11.90% Birkirkara 1227 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1502 1
3 1995-04-02 18.94% Naxxar Lions 1028 1 @ Zurrieq 1206 0
4 1995-02-19 21.91% Sliema Wanderers 1443 3 @ Hibernians 1589 1
5 1994-10-02 25.42% @ Sliema Wanderers 1384 2 Floriana 1497 1
6 1994-09-25 33.22% Zurrieq 1201 2 @ Birkirkara 1250 1
7 1994-11-27 33.35% @ Floriana 1477 2 Hamrun Spartans 1525 1
8 1995-05-07 36.42% Hibernians 1554 2 @ Valletta 1579 1
9 1994-10-02 39.11% Hamrun Spartans 1486 1 @ Valletta 1492 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-21 60.75 Valletta 5 1556 42.99% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1535 36.99% 20.03%
2 1995-04-02 53.55 Valletta 6 1505 39.98% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1505 39.98% 20.04%
3 1995-05-21 45.35 @ Naxxar Lions 3 1046 3.84% Floriana 1 1547 81.46% 14.71%
4 1995-02-19 33.47 Sliema Wanderers 3 1443 21.91% @ Hibernians 1 1589 58.60% 19.49%
5 1995-05-14 31.97 Zurrieq 3 1170 49.84% @ Pieta Hotspurs 0 1098 30.26% 19.90%
6 1994-10-09 30.56 Sliema Wanderers 6 1403 67.44% @ Pieta Hotspurs 0 1161 13.97% 18.59%
7 1995-05-07 30.13 Sliema Wanderers 6 1497 67.69% @ Birkirkara 0 1252 13.76% 18.55%
8 1995-04-16 28.82 @ Sliema Wanderers 5 1461 40.87% Hamrun Spartans 2 1455 39.10% 20.04%
9 1994-12-04 25.80 @ Naxxar Lions 2 1035 43.31% St. Georges 0 1012 36.67% 20.02%
10 1994-10-09 24.61 Valletta 5 1477 68.19% @ Zurrieq 0 1225 13.33% 18.47%
11 1994-09-18 22.94 Birkirkara 2 1227 11.90% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1502 69.91% 18.19%
12 1995-04-02 22.17 @ Floriana 3 1502 43.66% Sliema Wanderers 1 1476 36.32% 20.02%
13 1995-04-02 21.59 Naxxar Lions 1 1028 18.94% @ Zurrieq 0 1206 61.83% 19.23%
14 1995-01-22 21.43 Pieta Hotspurs 3 1093 45.16% @ Naxxar Lions 1 1056 34.84% 20.00%
15 1995-01-08 21.20 @ Zurrieq 2 1193 51.19% Pieta Hotspurs 0 1111 28.94% 19.86%
16 1995-05-07 19.63 Naxxar Lions 2 1035 53.81% @ St. Georges 0 931 26.44% 19.76%
17 1994-10-30 19.00 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1506 49.95% Sliema Wanderers 1 1433 30.15% 19.90%
18 1994-10-02 18.17 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1384 25.42% Floriana 1 1497 54.87% 19.71%
19 1995-05-21 18.01 Hamrun Spartans 3 1418 65.28% @ Zurrieq 0 1202 15.85% 18.87%
20 1995-05-14 17.51 Hibernians 2 1569 57.24% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1435 23.18% 19.58%
21 1994-11-27 16.27 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1414 63.90% Zurrieq 1 1214 17.07% 19.03%
22 1994-09-18 16.06 @ Sliema Wanderers 6 1366 71.71% St. Georges 1 1065 10.45% 17.85%
23 1994-09-25 15.76 Zurrieq 2 1201 33.22% @ Birkirkara 1 1250 46.80% 19.98%
24 1994-11-27 15.72 @ Floriana 2 1477 33.35% Hamrun Spartans 1 1525 46.67% 19.98%
25 1995-05-14 15.13 Floriana 4 1532 72.23% @ Birkirkara 0 1222 10.04% 17.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-09-18 68.6 @ Valletta 2 1484 39.11% Floriana 2 1490 40.85% 20.04%
2 1994-09-25 66.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1382 21.97% Hibernians 2 1528 58.53% 19.49%
3 1995-04-09 63.2 @ Hibernians 0 1549 43.53% Floriana 0 1524 36.45% 20.02%
4 1995-05-07 63.2 Hibernians 2 1554 36.42% @ Valletta 1 1579 43.56% 20.02%
5 1995-02-19 62.5 Sliema Wanderers 3 1443 21.91% @ Hibernians 1 1589 58.60% 19.49%
6 1995-03-25 60.8 @ Floriana 0 1502 39.53% Valletta 0 1505 40.43% 20.04%
7 1994-11-27 59.6 @ Floriana 2 1477 33.35% Hamrun Spartans 1 1525 46.67% 19.98%
8 1995-04-23 58.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1426 26.78% Floriana 0 1527 53.45% 19.77%
9 1995-01-15 58.4 @ Valletta 0 1502 48.87% Sliema Wanderers 0 1438 31.20% 19.93%
10 1994-09-18 58.3 Birkirkara 2 1227 11.90% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1502 69.91% 18.19%
11 1994-10-02 57.9 @ Hibernians 1 1526 71.02% Birkirkara 1 1235 11.00% 17.98%
12 1994-10-02 57.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1384 25.42% Floriana 1 1497 54.87% 19.71%
13 1995-05-21 57.6 @ Naxxar Lions 3 1046 3.84% Floriana 1 1547 81.46% 14.71%
14 1995-01-15 56.5 @ Floriana 1 1502 79.60% Naxxar Lions 1 1050 4.88% 15.52%
15 1994-10-09 55.8 Hibernians 2 1520 45.77% @ Floriana 1 1479 34.24% 19.99%
16 1994-10-09 54.9 @ Birkirkara 1 1240 64.28% Naxxar Lions 1 1035 16.74% 18.99%
17 1994-09-18 54.7 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1174 56.50% Naxxar Lions 1 1047 23.88% 19.62%
18 1995-04-02 54.6 @ Birkirkara 0 1230 9.28% Hibernians 0 1555 73.21% 17.51%
19 1995-04-02 54.0 @ Floriana 3 1502 43.66% Sliema Wanderers 1 1476 36.32% 20.02%
20 1995-04-16 53.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 5 1461 40.87% Hamrun Spartans 2 1455 39.10% 20.04%
21 1994-12-04 53.5 @ Hibernians 1 1542 44.29% Valletta 0 1511 35.70% 20.01%
22 1995-01-08 53.4 @ Hibernians 1 1555 46.09% Hamrun Spartans 0 1512 33.92% 19.99%
23 1995-05-14 53.3 @ St. Georges 0 911 1.74% Valletta 0 1565 86.23% 12.03%
24 1995-01-15 53.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1499 70.58% Zurrieq 0 1214 11.35% 18.07%
25 1994-12-04 52.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1430 62.98% Birkirkara 0 1240 17.90% 19.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-21 23.8 Hibernians 6 1587 86.59% @ St. Georges 0 919 1.62% 11.79%
2 1995-01-15 24.8 @ Hibernians 7 1568 84.33% St. Georges 0 982 2.47% 13.20%
3 1995-02-19 25.1 Floriana 5 1496 82.29% @ St. Georges 0 972 3.40% 14.30%
4 1995-04-23 25.7 Valletta 5 1574 82.63% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1040 3.24% 14.13%
5 1995-05-14 26.1 Sliema Wanderers 5 1527 80.42% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1054 4.41% 15.18%
6 1995-02-19 26.5 Hamrun Spartans 4 1498 80.04% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1035 4.62% 15.34%
7 1994-09-25 26.8 @ Floriana 4 1490 79.10% St. Georges 0 1049 5.19% 15.72%
8 1995-01-08 26.9 @ Valletta 3 1498 81.89% St. Georges 0 986 3.61% 14.50%
9 1995-01-08 27.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1426 75.47% Naxxar Lions 0 1061 7.60% 16.93%
10 1994-10-09 27.8 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1500 79.75% St. Georges 0 1044 4.79% 15.45%
11 1994-09-25 28.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1479 78.61% Naxxar Lions 0 1050 5.49% 15.90%
12 1994-11-27 29.1 @ Hibernians 3 1535 77.95% Pieta Hotspurs 0 1120 5.91% 16.14%
13 1995-01-22 29.1 Sliema Wanderers 2 1439 80.02% @ St. Georges 0 976 4.64% 15.35%
14 1995-04-23 29.7 Birkirkara 3 1240 71.40% @ St. Georges 0 943 10.69% 17.91%
15 1994-10-09 29.8 Sliema Wanderers 6 1403 67.44% @ Pieta Hotspurs 0 1161 13.97% 18.59%
16 1994-10-30 29.9 @ Floriana 3 1467 73.89% Pieta Hotspurs 0 1130 8.76% 17.35%
17 1995-01-22 30.5 Hibernians 5 1574 74.86% @ Zurrieq 0 1220 8.04% 17.10%
18 1995-04-23 30.5 Hibernians 2 1550 79.12% @ Pieta Hotspurs 0 1109 5.17% 15.71%
19 1994-10-09 30.9 Valletta 5 1477 68.19% @ Zurrieq 0 1225 13.33% 18.47%
20 1995-05-14 31.0 Floriana 4 1532 72.23% @ Birkirkara 0 1222 10.04% 17.74%
21 1994-09-18 31.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 6 1366 71.71% St. Georges 1 1065 10.45% 17.85%
22 1995-04-16 31.2 Hibernians 1 1549 81.69% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1042 3.71% 14.60%
23 1995-05-07 31.7 Sliema Wanderers 6 1497 67.69% @ Birkirkara 0 1252 13.76% 18.55%
24 1995-04-09 31.8 Hamrun Spartans 4 1452 81.23% @ St. Georges 1 957 3.96% 14.82%
25 1995-04-09 32.2 @ Valletta 6 1559 75.96% Zurrieq 1 1184 7.26% 16.79%