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1995-96 Maltese Premier League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Sliema Wanderers

46 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sliema Wanderers

7.95 points above expected

46 points · 38.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zurrieq

9.85 points below expected

4 points · 13.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 18 15 1 2 46 55 16 +39 38.05 +7.95
2 Valletta 18 13 3 2 42 49 11 +38 40.42 +1.58
3 Floriana 18 11 4 3 37 32 12 +20 34.16 +2.84
4 Hibernians 18 9 6 3 33 35 18 +17 35.76 -2.76
5 Hamrun Spartans 18 8 5 5 29 29 20 +9 31.47 -2.47
6 Birkirkara 18 6 3 9 21 23 26 -3 20.68 +0.32
7 Naxxar Lions 18 6 3 9 21 22 33 -11 16.97 +4.03
8 Rabat Ajax 18 4 2 12 14 27 50 -23 15.71 -1.71
9 St. Patrick 18 3 0 15 9 15 52 -37 8.83 +0.17
10 Zurrieq 18 1 1 16 4 13 62 -49 13.85 -9.85

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 46 38.05 +7.95
2 Naxxar Lions 21 16.97 +4.03
3 Floriana 37 34.16 +2.84
4 Valletta 42 40.42 +1.58
5 Birkirkara 21 20.68 +0.32

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zurrieq 4 13.85 -9.85
2 Hibernians 33 35.76 -2.76
3 Hamrun Spartans 29 31.47 -2.47
4 Rabat Ajax 14 15.71 -1.71
5 St. Patrick 9 8.83 +0.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sliema Wanderers 7 Apr 7 – May 26 1 in 24
2 Valletta 7 Sep 24 – Nov 19 1 in 13
3 St. Patrick 1 Sep 24 – Sep 24 1 in 8
4 Birkirkara 2 Oct 29 – Nov 19 1 in 7
5 Floriana 3 Mar 10 – Apr 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 2 Oct 22 – Oct 29 1 in 86
2 St. Patrick 13 Oct 29 – May 26 1 in 61
3 Zurrieq 8 Mar 10 – May 26 1 in 13
4 Rabat Ajax 5 Dec 17 – Apr 21 1 in 9
5 Valletta 1 Feb 18 – Feb 18 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 9 Nov 19 – May 5 1 in 86
2 Floriana 11 Dec 3 – May 26 1 in 29
3 Naxxar Lions 3 Nov 19 – Dec 17 1 in 17
4 Birkirkara 3 Oct 22 – Nov 19 1 in 12
5 Hibernians 8 Nov 19 – Apr 28 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valletta 3 Dec 3 – Feb 18 1 in 41
2 Hamrun Spartans 4 Oct 22 – Dec 3 1 in 24
3 Zurrieq 9 Sep 24 – Dec 17 1 in 20
4 Hibernians 2 Oct 22 – Oct 29 1 in 7
5 St. Patrick 13 Oct 29 – May 26 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sliema Wanderers 1548 46 +88 15 11.3 +3.7
Valletta 1553 42 +84 13 11.2 +1.8
Floriana 1463 37 +73 11 9.3 +1.7
Hibernians 1357 33 -67 7 8.6 -1.6
Hamrun Spartans 1285 29 -45 9 9.1 -0.1
Naxxar Lions 1099 21 +5 6 4.9 +1.1
Birkirkara 1155 21 -9 4 6.0 -2.0
Rabat Ajax 1025 14 +20 7 6.5 +0.5
St. Patrick 786 9 -58 0 1.8 -1.8
Zurrieq 813 4 -91 0 2.4 -2.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB NL RA SW SP VAL ZUR
Birkirkara —
0-1-1
1.26
1-0-1
1.52
0-1-1
1.05
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
3.79
0-0-2
0.82
2-0-0
4.64
0-0-2
0.93
2-0-0
3.58
Floriana
1-1-0
4.42
 —
1-1-0
3.45
0-1-1
2.87
2-0-0
4.79
2-0-0
4.78
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
5.25
0-1-1
1.99
2-0-0
4.97
Hamrun Spartans
1-0-1
4.15
0-1-1
2.22
 —
0-2-0
1.98
1-1-0
4.34
2-0-0
4.67
0-1-1
1.56
1-0-1
5.11
1-0-1
1.46
2-0-0
4.95
Hibernians
1-1-0
4.63
1-1-0
2.80
0-2-0
3.69
 —
1-1-0
4.78
2-0-0
4.89
0-0-2
2.71
2-0-0
5.23
0-1-1
1.97
2-0-0
5.18
Naxxar Lions
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
0.90
0-1-1
1.34
0-1-1
0.91
 —
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-2
0.80
1-0-1
4.24
0-1-1
0.62
2-0-0
3.71
Rabat Ajax
1-1-0
1.88
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
0.80
0-0-2
2.94
 —
0-0-2
0.95
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
0.61
1-1-0
3.32
Sliema Wanderers
2-0-0
4.87
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
4.12
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-0
4.89
2-0-0
4.73
 —
2-0-0
5.34
1-0-1
2.21
2-0-0
5.02
St. Patrick
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
0.47
1-0-1
0.59
0-0-2
0.49
1-0-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.90
0-0-2
0.40
 —
0-0-2
0.42
1-0-1
1.71
Valletta
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
3.68
1-0-1
4.22
1-1-0
3.70
1-1-0
5.08
2-0-0
5.09
1-0-1
3.46
2-0-0
5.30
 —
2-0-0
5.28
Zurrieq
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
1.96
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-2
0.68
1-0-1
3.97
0-0-2
0.44
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +9.7
Allowed 0.89 -7.2
Differential 0.99 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%5.56%5.56%4.44%2.22%2.78%23.89%
15.56%10.00%8.89%2.78%3.33%2.22%32.78%
25.56%8.89%2.22%2.22%1.67%0.56%21.11%
34.44%2.78%2.22%———9.44%
42.22%3.33%1.67%———7.22%
5+2.78%2.22%0.56%———5.56%
Total23.89%32.78%21.11%9.44%7.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.67 +0.00
SD 1.62 1.62 2.63
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.44 -0.17
SD 1.53 1.34 2.28
CV 1.19 0.93 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 0.67 +1.11
SD 1.40 0.77 1.68
CV 0.79 1.15 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%22.22%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.29 0.90 1.65
CV 0.80 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%27.78%————33.33%
211.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.00 +0.94
SD 1.66 1.08 2.24
CV 0.85 1.08 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
25.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.83 -0.61
SD 1.00 1.62 2.12
CV 0.82 0.88 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
1——11.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%38.89%
211.11%—11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%5.56%33.33%16.67%22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.78 -1.28
SD 1.15 1.73 2.37
CV 0.77 0.62 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 0.89 +2.17
SD 2.21 0.68 2.09
CV 0.72 0.76 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%50.00%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—16.67%33.33%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.89 -2.06
SD 0.99 1.71 2.21
CV 1.18 0.59 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total50.00%38.89%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 0.61 +2.11
SD 2.14 0.70 2.49
CV 0.78 1.14 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%16.67%50.00%
1——11.11%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%33.33%11.11%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 3.44 -2.72
SD 0.83 1.92 2.22
CV 1.14 0.56 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1553 42 40.42 +1.58 69.0% 27 33 37 40 43 47 49
Sliema Wanderers 1548 46 38.05 +7.95 97.0% 25 30 35 38 42 46 50
Floriana 1463 37 34.16 +2.84 77.0% 22 25 30 35 37 42 46
Hibernians 1357 33 35.76 -2.76 30.0% 20 28 33 36 39 44 48
Hamrun Spartans 1285 29 31.47 -2.47 33.0% 22 24 28 31 35 39 42
Birkirkara 1155 21 20.68 +0.32 57.0% 5 14 17 20 25 28 32
Naxxar Lions 1099 21 16.97 +4.03 84.0% 5 9 13 18 20 24 26
Rabat Ajax 1025 14 15.71 -1.71 42.0% 6 9 13 16 19 22 25
Zurrieq 813 4 13.85 -9.85 0.0% 6 7 11 14 16 21 23
St. Patrick 786 9 8.83 +0.17 55.0% 1 3 5 9 12 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.22%
Slight Edge
41.11%15.56%43.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -7.72 Elo pts.
165 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2-0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
28%
Sliema Wanderers, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.63 * Some Luck: 3.63 to 5.44 * Lucky: 5.44 to 7.26 * Wild Swing: 7.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.71 * Close: 0.71 to 1.07 * Off: 1.07 to 1.42 * Way Off: 1.42 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.51 points
Some Luck
04.5411
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
00.892
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Sliema Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Zurrieq
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 280.91
2.40
Wide Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
91%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.462
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Strong Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.64
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.1490.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Sliema Wanderers28.00%30.00%22.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%————
Valletta47.00%31.00%14.00%7.00%1.00%—————
Floriana10.00%12.00%28.00%25.00%24.00%1.00%————
Hibernians14.00%20.00%22.00%26.00%17.00%—1.00%———
Hamrun Spartans1.00%7.00%14.00%28.00%44.00%6.00%————
Birkirkara———2.00%4.00%51.00%26.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%
Naxxar Lions————2.00%24.00%27.00%25.00%17.00%5.00%
Rabat Ajax—————12.00%28.00%28.00%24.00%8.00%
St. Patrick——————3.00%9.00%19.00%69.00%
Zurrieq————1.00%5.00%15.00%28.00%34.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Birkirkara 93.00% 7.00%
Naxxar Lions 78.00% 22.00%
Rabat Ajax 68.00% 32.00%
Zurrieq 49.00% 51.00%
St. Patrick 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-09-24 Birkirkara W 1-034.4 1354 1148 66.20% 16.15% 17.66%+1.20 +11.8 3
1995-09-24 @ Floriana L 0-134.4 1148 1354 17.66% 16.15% 66.20%-1.20 -11.8 0
1995-09-24 Hibernians D 1-155.2 1058 1407 8.57% 15.51% 75.93%-2.17 +9.9 1
1995-09-24 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-155.2 1407 1058 75.93% 15.51% 8.57%+2.17 -9.9 1
1995-09-24 Sliema Wanderers L 1-532.5 1077 1324 14.45% 15.99% 69.55%-1.55 -29.2 0
1995-09-24 @ Rabat Ajax W 5-132.5 1324 1077 69.55% 15.99% 14.45%+1.55 +29.2 3
1995-09-24 Hamrun Spartans W 1-038.1 1445 1298 60.53% 16.32% 23.15%+0.85 +15.1 3
1995-09-24 @ Valletta L 0-138.1 1298 1445 23.15% 16.32% 60.53%-0.85 -15.1 0
1995-09-24 St. Patrick L 1-254.5 1121 852 71.17% 15.90% 12.93%+1.59 -39.2 0
1995-09-24 @ Zurrieq W 2-154.5 852 1121 12.93% 15.90% 71.17%-1.59 +39.2 3
1995-10-01 Zurrieq W 2-036.8 1136 1082 49.34% 16.47% 34.19%+0.28 +40.1 3
1995-10-01 @ Birkirkara L 0-236.8 1082 1136 34.19% 16.47% 49.34%-0.28 -40.1 0
1995-10-01 Naxxar Lions W 3-029.9 1283 1067 67.06% 16.11% 16.83%+1.26 +31.0 3
1995-10-01 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-329.9 1067 1283 16.83% 16.11% 67.06%-1.26 -30.9 1
1995-10-01 Rabat Ajax W 4-132.4 1397 1048 75.91% 15.51% 8.58%+2.08 +13.7 4
1995-10-01 @ Hibernians L 1-432.4 1048 1397 8.58% 15.51% 75.91%-2.08 -13.7 0
1995-10-01 Floriana W 1-043.9 1353 1365 39.97% 16.50% 43.53%-0.12 +26.1 6
1995-10-01 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-143.9 1365 1353 43.53% 16.50% 39.97%+0.12 -26.1 3
1995-10-01 Valletta L 1-331.9 891 1460 2.65% 14.03% 83.31%-3.51 -3.0 3
1995-10-01 @ St. Patrick W 3-131.9 1460 891 83.31% 14.03% 2.65%+3.51 +3.0 6
1995-10-08 Hamrun Spartans D 0-053.1 1411 1314 54.78% 16.42% 28.80%+0.54 -4.0 5
1995-10-08 @ Hibernians D 0-053.1 1314 1411 28.80% 16.42% 54.78%-0.54 +3.9 4
1995-10-08 St. Patrick L 2-356.6 1037 888 60.66% 16.31% 23.02%+0.85 -31.6 1
1995-10-08 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-256.6 888 1037 23.02% 16.31% 60.66%-0.85 +31.6 6
1995-10-08 Floriana L 1-236.5 1034 1339 10.77% 15.73% 73.50%-1.90 -7.0 0
1995-10-08 @ Rabat Ajax W 2-136.5 1339 1034 73.50% 15.73% 10.77%+1.90 +7.0 6
1995-10-08 Birkirkara W 4-028.4 1463 1176 72.36% 15.82% 11.82%+1.70 +29.0 9
1995-10-08 @ Valletta L 0-428.4 1176 1463 11.82% 15.82% 72.36%-1.70 -29.0 3
1995-10-08 Sliema Wanderers L 1-728.7 1042 1379 9.13% 15.57% 75.30%-2.10 -27.3 0
1995-10-08 @ Zurrieq W 7-128.7 1379 1042 75.30% 15.57% 9.13%+2.10 +27.3 9
1995-10-15 Naxxar Lions L 1-251.3 1147 1005 60.04% 16.33% 23.64%+0.82 -33.0 3
1995-10-15 @ Birkirkara W 2-151.3 1005 1147 23.64% 16.33% 60.04%-0.82 +33.0 4
1995-10-15 Zurrieq W 5-026.2 1346 1014 75.01% 15.60% 9.39%+1.97 +28.6 9
1995-10-15 @ Floriana L 0-526.2 1014 1346 9.39% 15.60% 75.01%-1.97 -28.6 0
1995-10-15 Rabat Ajax W 3-028.2 1318 1027 72.60% 15.80% 11.59%+1.72 +21.8 7
1995-10-15 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-328.2 1027 1318 11.59% 15.80% 72.60%-1.72 -21.8 0
1995-10-15 Valletta L 1-248.8 1406 1492 30.15% 16.44% 53.42%-0.57 -18.0 9
1995-10-15 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-148.8 1492 1406 53.42% 16.44% 30.15%+0.57 +18.0 12
1995-10-15 Hibernians L 0-424.6 920 1407 4.13% 14.64% 81.23%-3.01 -10.3 6
1995-10-15 @ St. Patrick W 4-024.6 1407 920 81.23% 14.64% 4.13%+3.01 +10.3 8
1995-10-22 St. Patrick L 1-256.8 1340 909 79.37% 15.03% 5.60%+2.57 -43.8 7
1995-10-22 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-156.8 909 1340 5.60% 15.03% 79.37%-2.57 +43.8 9
1995-10-22 Birkirkara D 1-155.4 1417 1114 73.35% 15.75% 10.91%+1.79 -9.1 9
1995-10-22 @ Hibernians D 1-155.4 1114 1417 10.91% 15.75% 73.35%-1.79 +9.1 4
1995-10-22 Sliema Wanderers L 1-235.9 1038 1388 8.52% 15.50% 75.98%-2.18 -5.6 4
1995-10-22 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-135.9 1388 1038 75.98% 15.50% 8.52%+2.18 +5.6 12
1995-10-22 Zurrieq D 2-259.8 1005 986 44.53% 16.50% 38.97%+0.07 -0.5 1
1995-10-22 @ Rabat Ajax D 2-259.8 986 1005 38.97% 16.50% 44.53%-0.07 +0.5 1
1995-10-22 Floriana W 2-146.6 1510 1375 59.25% 16.34% 24.41%+0.78 +14.9 15
1995-10-22 @ Valletta L 1-246.6 1375 1510 24.41% 16.34% 59.25%-0.78 -14.9 9
1995-10-29 Hamrun Spartans W 2-152.5 1124 1296 20.65% 16.25% 63.10%-1.09 +34.6 7
1995-10-29 @ Birkirkara L 1-252.5 1296 1124 63.10% 16.25% 20.65%+1.09 -34.6 7
1995-10-29 Naxxar Lions W 3-134.5 1360 1032 74.79% 15.62% 9.59%+1.94 +10.8 12
1995-10-29 @ Floriana L 1-334.5 1032 1360 9.59% 15.62% 74.79%-1.94 -10.8 4
1995-10-29 Hibernians W 4-252.9 1394 1408 39.74% 16.50% 43.76%-0.13 +38.3 15
1995-10-29 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-452.9 1408 1394 43.76% 16.50% 39.74%+0.13 -38.3 9
1995-10-29 Rabat Ajax L 1-440.2 953 1005 34.57% 16.48% 48.95%-0.36 -49.6 9
1995-10-29 @ St. Patrick W 4-140.2 1005 953 48.95% 16.48% 34.57%+0.36 +49.6 4
1995-10-29 Valletta L 1-430.6 986 1525 3.13% 14.26% 82.61%-3.32 -5.0 1
1995-10-29 @ Zurrieq W 4-130.6 1525 986 82.61% 14.26% 3.13%+3.32 +5.0 18
1995-11-19 Sliema Wanderers D 1-156.5 1261 1432 20.76% 16.25% 62.99%-1.09 +5.9 8
1995-11-19 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-156.5 1432 1261 62.99% 16.25% 20.76%+1.09 -5.9 16
1995-11-19 Floriana W 2-148.4 1370 1371 41.59% 16.50% 41.91%-0.05 +23.8 12
1995-11-19 @ Hibernians L 1-248.4 1371 1370 41.91% 16.50% 41.59%+0.05 -23.8 12
1995-11-19 Zurrieq W 2-144.2 1022 981 47.39% 16.49% 36.12%+0.20 +21.0 7
1995-11-19 @ Naxxar Lions L 1-244.2 981 1022 36.12% 16.49% 47.39%-0.20 -21.0 1
1995-11-19 Valletta L 1-333.3 1054 1530 4.39% 14.72% 80.89%-2.94 -5.0 4
1995-11-19 @ Rabat Ajax W 3-133.3 1530 1054 80.89% 14.72% 4.39%+2.94 +5.0 21
1995-11-19 Birkirkara L 0-132.7 904 1158 13.90% 15.96% 70.14%-1.59 -9.5 9
1995-11-19 @ St. Patrick W 1-032.7 1158 904 70.14% 15.96% 13.90%+1.59 +9.5 10
1995-12-03 Rabat Ajax L 0-243.8 1168 1049 57.32% 16.38% 26.30%+0.67 -63.0 10
1995-12-03 @ Birkirkara W 2-043.8 1049 1168 26.30% 16.38% 57.32%-0.67 +63.0 7
1995-12-03 Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.6 1347 1267 52.66% 16.44% 30.89%+0.44 -2.9 13
1995-12-03 @ Floriana D 1-155.6 1267 1347 30.89% 16.44% 52.66%-0.44 +2.9 9
1995-12-03 St. Patrick W 3-025.2 1426 894 82.44% 14.31% 3.24%+3.19 +6.2 19
1995-12-03 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-325.2 894 1426 3.24% 14.31% 82.44%-3.19 -6.2 9
1995-12-03 Naxxar Lions D 1-155.9 1535 1043 81.39% 14.60% 4.01%+2.95 -11.6 22
1995-12-03 @ Valletta D 1-155.9 1043 1535 4.01% 14.60% 81.39%-2.95 +11.6 8
1995-12-03 Hibernians L 0-227.9 960 1394 5.51% 15.01% 79.48%-2.68 -7.2 1
1995-12-03 @ Zurrieq W 2-027.9 1394 960 79.48% 15.01% 5.51%+2.68 +7.2 15
1995-12-17 Sliema Wanderers L 1-433.1 1105 1432 9.59% 15.62% 74.79%-2.04 -15.3 10
1995-12-17 @ Birkirkara W 4-133.1 1432 1105 74.79% 15.62% 9.59%+2.04 +15.3 22
1995-12-17 Zurrieq W 3-241.3 1270 953 74.18% 15.68% 10.14%+1.88 +6.3 12
1995-12-17 @ Hamrun Spartans L 2-341.3 953 1270 10.14% 15.68% 74.18%-1.88 -6.3 1
1995-12-17 Valletta D 1-161.8 1401 1524 25.78% 16.37% 57.84%-0.79 +4.4 16
1995-12-17 @ Hibernians D 1-161.8 1524 1401 57.84% 16.37% 25.78%+0.79 -4.4 23
1995-12-17 Naxxar Lions L 0-241.5 1112 1054 49.86% 16.47% 33.67%+0.31 -55.4 7
1995-12-17 @ Rabat Ajax W 2-041.5 1054 1112 33.67% 16.47% 49.86%-0.31 +55.4 11
1995-12-17 Floriana L 2-339.5 888 1344 4.88% 14.86% 80.26%-2.82 -3.0 9
1995-12-17 @ St. Patrick W 3-239.5 1344 888 80.26% 14.86% 4.88%+2.82 +3.0 16
1996-02-18 Floriana D 0-051.3 1089 1347 13.68% 15.95% 70.38%-1.61 +9.2 11
1996-02-18 @ Birkirkara D 0-051.3 1347 1089 70.38% 15.95% 13.68%+1.61 -9.2 17
1996-02-18 Valletta W 2-157.5 1276 1519 14.72% 16.01% 69.27%-1.52 +38.1 15
1996-02-18 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-257.5 1519 1276 69.27% 16.01% 14.72%+1.52 -38.1 23
1996-02-18 Naxxar Lions W 1-032.4 1405 1109 72.92% 15.78% 11.30%+1.75 +7.8 19
1996-02-18 @ Hibernians L 0-132.4 1109 1405 11.30% 15.78% 72.92%-1.75 -7.8 11
1996-02-18 Rabat Ajax W 7-230.6 1448 1057 77.82% 15.27% 6.91%+2.33 +14.7 25
1996-02-18 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-730.6 1057 1448 6.91% 15.27% 77.82%-2.33 -14.7 7
1996-02-18 Zurrieq L 1-243.3 885 947 33.21% 16.47% 50.32%-0.42 -19.6 9
1996-02-18 @ St. Patrick W 2-143.3 947 885 50.32% 16.47% 33.21%+0.42 +19.6 4
1996-03-10 Sliema Wanderers W 1-049.7 1338 1462 25.60% 16.37% 58.03%-0.80 +33.8 20
1996-03-10 @ Floriana L 0-149.7 1462 1338 58.03% 16.37% 25.60%+0.80 -33.8 25
1996-03-10 Hamrun Spartans D 1-154.9 1102 1314 17.06% 16.12% 66.82%-1.34 +7.1 12
1996-03-10 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-154.9 1314 1102 66.82% 16.12% 17.06%+1.34 -7.1 16
1996-03-10 Hibernians L 1-432.1 1042 1413 7.67% 15.39% 76.94%-2.30 -12.3 7
1996-03-10 @ Rabat Ajax W 4-132.1 1413 1042 76.94% 15.39% 7.67%+2.30 +12.3 22
1996-03-10 St. Patrick W 8-024.2 1481 865 84.28% 13.66% 2.06%+3.69 +9.7 26
1996-03-10 @ Valletta L 0-824.2 865 1481 2.06% 13.66% 84.28%-3.69 -9.7 9
1996-03-10 Birkirkara L 1-535.5 966 1099 24.76% 16.35% 58.89%-0.85 -47.8 4
1996-03-10 @ Zurrieq W 5-135.5 1099 966 58.89% 16.35% 24.76%+0.85 +47.8 14
1996-04-07 Valletta L 0-132.3 1146 1491 8.79% 15.53% 75.68%-2.14 -6.1 14
1996-04-07 @ Birkirkara W 1-032.3 1491 1146 75.68% 15.53% 8.79%+2.14 +6.1 29
1996-04-07 Rabat Ajax W 2-136.0 1372 1030 75.53% 15.55% 8.92%+2.03 +5.8 23
1996-04-07 @ Floriana L 1-236.0 1030 1372 8.92% 15.55% 75.53%-2.03 -5.8 7
1996-04-07 Hibernians D 1-157.0 1307 1425 26.33% 16.38% 57.29%-0.76 +4.2 17
1996-04-07 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-157.0 1425 1307 57.29% 16.38% 26.33%+0.76 -4.2 23
1996-04-07 Zurrieq W 1-029.3 1429 919 81.87% 14.48% 3.65%+3.05 +2.5 28
1996-04-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-129.3 919 1429 3.65% 14.48% 81.87%-3.05 -2.5 4
1996-04-07 Naxxar Lions L 1-237.4 856 1109 14.00% 15.97% 70.03%-1.58 -9.0 9
1996-04-07 @ St. Patrick W 2-137.4 1109 856 70.03% 15.97% 14.00%+1.58 +9.0 15
1996-04-21 St. Patrick W 2-026.6 1421 847 83.43% 13.99% 2.58%+3.44 +3.4 26
1996-04-21 @ Hibernians L 0-226.6 847 1421 2.58% 13.99% 83.43%-3.44 -3.4 9
1996-04-21 Birkirkara L 0-140.4 1118 1140 38.56% 16.49% 44.95%-0.18 -23.5 15
1996-04-21 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-040.4 1140 1118 44.95% 16.49% 38.56%+0.18 +23.5 17
1996-04-21 Hamrun Spartans L 1-433.3 1024 1312 11.79% 15.82% 72.39%-1.79 -18.7 7
1996-04-21 @ Rabat Ajax W 4-133.3 1312 1024 72.39% 15.82% 11.79%+1.79 +18.7 20
1996-04-21 Sliema Wanderers L 1-256.0 1497 1431 50.84% 16.46% 32.70%+0.35 -28.2 29
1996-04-21 @ Valletta W 2-156.0 1431 1497 32.70% 16.46% 50.84%-0.35 +28.2 31
1996-04-21 Floriana L 0-424.8 916 1378 4.74% 14.82% 80.44%-2.85 -11.8 4
1996-04-21 @ Zurrieq W 4-024.8 1378 916 80.44% 14.82% 4.74%+2.85 +11.8 26
1996-04-28 Hibernians L 1-336.5 1164 1424 13.48% 15.94% 70.58%-1.63 -15.0 17
1996-04-28 @ Birkirkara W 3-136.5 1424 1164 70.58% 15.94% 13.48%+1.63 +15.0 29
1996-04-28 Valletta D 0-056.0 1389 1469 30.97% 16.45% 52.59%-0.53 +3.3 27
1996-04-28 @ Floriana D 0-056.0 1469 1389 52.59% 16.45% 30.97%+0.53 -3.3 30
1996-04-28 Naxxar Lions W 7-128.7 1459 1094 76.68% 15.42% 7.90%+2.17 +23.7 34
1996-04-28 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-728.7 1094 1459 7.90% 15.42% 76.68%-2.17 -23.7 15
1996-04-28 Hamrun Spartans L 0-227.3 843 1330 4.14% 14.64% 81.22%-3.01 -5.4 9
1996-04-28 @ St. Patrick W 2-027.3 1330 843 81.22% 14.64% 4.14%+3.01 +5.4 23
1996-04-28 Rabat Ajax L 0-235.0 904 1006 28.27% 16.41% 55.32%-0.66 -34.0 4
1996-04-28 @ Zurrieq W 2-035.0 1006 904 55.32% 16.41% 28.27%+0.66 +34.0 10
1996-05-05 Birkirkara W 1-034.8 1336 1149 64.51% 16.21% 19.29%+1.09 +12.8 26
1996-05-05 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-134.8 1149 1336 19.29% 16.21% 64.51%-1.09 -12.8 17
1996-05-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-244.4 1439 1483 35.64% 16.48% 47.87%-0.31 -41.5 29
1996-05-05 @ Hibernians W 2-044.4 1483 1439 47.87% 16.48% 35.64%+0.31 +41.6 37
1996-05-05 Floriana L 0-229.6 1071 1393 9.87% 15.65% 74.48%-2.01 -12.8 15
1996-05-05 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-029.6 1393 1071 74.48% 15.65% 9.87%+2.01 +12.8 30
1996-05-05 St. Patrick W 4-241.4 1040 838 65.86% 16.16% 17.98%+1.18 +17.5 13
1996-05-05 @ Rabat Ajax L 2-441.4 838 1040 17.98% 16.16% 65.86%-1.18 -17.6 9
1996-05-05 Zurrieq W 7-024.0 1466 870 83.87% 13.83% 2.30%+3.57 +9.6 33
1996-05-05 @ Valletta L 0-724.0 870 1466 2.30% 13.83% 83.87%-3.57 -9.6 4
1996-05-12 St. Patrick W 5-026.3 1136 820 74.11% 15.68% 10.21%+1.87 +31.1 20
1996-05-12 @ Birkirkara L 0-526.3 820 1136 10.21% 15.68% 74.11%-1.87 -31.0 9
1996-05-12 Hibernians D 1-158.3 1406 1398 42.85% 16.50% 40.65%+0.00 -0.3 31
1996-05-12 @ Floriana D 1-158.3 1398 1406 40.65% 16.50% 42.85%+0.00 +0.3 30
1996-05-12 Hamrun Spartans W 2-144.9 1525 1348 63.48% 16.24% 20.28%+1.02 +12.6 40
1996-05-12 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.9 1348 1525 20.28% 16.24% 63.48%-1.02 -12.7 26
1996-05-12 Rabat Ajax W 4-025.7 1475 1057 78.92% 15.10% 5.98%+2.49 +14.9 36
1996-05-12 @ Valletta L 0-425.7 1057 1475 5.98% 15.10% 78.92%-2.49 -14.9 13
1996-05-12 Naxxar Lions L 0-330.2 861 1058 18.38% 16.17% 65.44%-1.24 -33.6 4
1996-05-12 @ Zurrieq W 3-030.2 1058 861 65.44% 16.17% 18.38%+1.24 +33.6 18
1996-05-19 Floriana L 0-336.9 1336 1405 32.23% 16.46% 51.31%-0.47 -55.3 26
1996-05-19 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-036.9 1405 1336 51.31% 16.46% 32.23%+0.47 +55.4 34
1996-05-19 Zurrieq W 6-023.8 1398 827 83.36% 14.02% 2.63%+3.42 +9.5 33
1996-05-19 @ Hibernians L 0-623.8 827 1398 2.63% 14.02% 83.36%-3.42 -9.5 4
1996-05-19 Valletta L 0-327.2 1091 1490 6.62% 15.22% 78.16%-2.47 -12.6 18
1996-05-19 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-027.2 1490 1091 78.16% 15.22% 6.62%+2.47 +12.6 39
1996-05-19 Birkirkara D 2-259.8 1042 1167 25.56% 16.37% 58.07%-0.81 +3.3 14
1996-05-19 @ Rabat Ajax D 2-259.8 1167 1042 58.07% 16.37% 25.56%+0.81 -3.3 21
1996-05-19 Sliema Wanderers L 0-324.0 789 1537 1.00% 12.54% 86.46%-4.59 -1.8 9
1996-05-19 @ St. Patrick W 3-024.0 1537 789 86.46% 12.54% 1.00%+4.59 +1.8 43
1996-05-26 St. Patrick W 2-026.1 1461 788 85.31% 13.19% 1.51%+4.04 +1.9 37
1996-05-26 @ Floriana L 0-226.1 788 1461 1.51% 13.19% 85.31%-4.04 -1.9 9
1996-05-26 Rabat Ajax W 3-249.6 1079 1046 46.42% 16.49% 37.09%+0.15 +20.4 21
1996-05-26 @ Naxxar Lions L 2-349.6 1046 1079 37.09% 16.49% 46.42%-0.15 -20.4 14
1996-05-26 Birkirkara W 3-135.6 1539 1164 77.15% 15.36% 7.49%+2.23 +8.5 46
1996-05-26 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-335.6 1164 1539 7.49% 15.36% 77.15%-2.23 -8.5 21
1996-05-26 Hibernians W 3-040.2 1503 1408 54.54% 16.42% 29.03%+0.53 +50.6 42
1996-05-26 @ Valletta L 0-340.2 1408 1503 29.03% 16.42% 54.54%-0.53 -50.6 33
1996-05-26 Hamrun Spartans L 2-437.0 818 1280 4.71% 14.81% 80.49%-2.86 -4.8 4
1996-05-26 @ Zurrieq W 4-237.0 1280 818 80.49% 14.81% 4.71%+2.86 +4.8 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-10-22 5.60% St. Patrick 909 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1340 1
2 1995-09-24 12.93% St. Patrick 852 2 @ Zurrieq 1121 1
3 1996-02-18 14.72% @ Hamrun Spartans 1276 2 Valletta 1519 1
4 1995-10-29 20.65% @ Birkirkara 1124 2 Hamrun Spartans 1296 1
5 1995-10-08 23.02% St. Patrick 888 3 @ Naxxar Lions 1037 2
6 1995-10-15 23.64% Naxxar Lions 1005 2 @ Birkirkara 1147 1
7 1996-03-10 25.60% @ Floriana 1338 1 Sliema Wanderers 1462 0
8 1995-12-03 26.30% Rabat Ajax 1049 2 @ Birkirkara 1168 0
9 1996-04-21 32.70% Sliema Wanderers 1431 2 @ Valletta 1497 1
10 1995-12-17 33.67% Naxxar Lions 1054 2 @ Rabat Ajax 1112 0
11 1995-10-29 39.74% @ Sliema Wanderers 1394 4 Hibernians 1408 2
12 1995-10-01 39.97% @ Sliema Wanderers 1353 1 Floriana 1365 0
13 1995-11-19 41.59% @ Hibernians 1370 2 Floriana 1371 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-12-03 63.05 Rabat Ajax 2 1049 26.30% @ Birkirkara 0 1168 57.32% 16.38%
2 1995-12-17 55.39 Naxxar Lions 2 1054 33.67% @ Rabat Ajax 0 1112 49.86% 16.47%
3 1996-05-19 55.35 Floriana 3 1405 51.31% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1336 32.23% 16.46%
4 1996-05-26 50.56 @ Valletta 3 1503 54.54% Hibernians 0 1408 29.03% 16.42%
5 1995-10-29 49.58 Rabat Ajax 4 1005 48.95% @ St. Patrick 1 953 34.57% 16.48%
6 1996-03-10 47.84 Birkirkara 5 1099 58.89% @ Zurrieq 1 966 24.76% 16.35%
7 1995-10-22 43.80 St. Patrick 2 909 5.60% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1340 79.37% 15.03%
8 1996-05-05 41.56 Sliema Wanderers 2 1483 47.87% @ Hibernians 0 1439 35.64% 16.48%
9 1995-10-01 40.10 @ Birkirkara 2 1136 49.34% Zurrieq 0 1082 34.19% 16.47%
10 1995-09-24 39.16 St. Patrick 2 852 12.93% @ Zurrieq 1 1121 71.17% 15.90%
11 1995-10-29 38.27 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1394 39.74% Hibernians 2 1408 43.76% 16.50%
12 1996-02-18 38.08 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1276 14.72% Valletta 1 1519 69.27% 16.01%
13 1995-10-29 34.63 @ Birkirkara 2 1124 20.65% Hamrun Spartans 1 1296 63.10% 16.25%
14 1996-04-28 34.02 Rabat Ajax 2 1006 55.32% @ Zurrieq 0 904 28.27% 16.41%
15 1996-03-10 33.84 @ Floriana 1 1338 25.60% Sliema Wanderers 0 1462 58.03% 16.37%
16 1996-05-12 33.57 Naxxar Lions 3 1058 65.44% @ Zurrieq 0 861 18.38% 16.17%
17 1995-10-15 32.97 Naxxar Lions 2 1005 23.64% @ Birkirkara 1 1147 60.04% 16.33%
18 1995-10-08 31.60 St. Patrick 3 888 23.02% @ Naxxar Lions 2 1037 60.66% 16.31%
19 1996-05-12 31.06 @ Birkirkara 5 1136 74.11% St. Patrick 0 820 10.21% 15.68%
20 1995-10-01 30.95 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1283 67.06% Naxxar Lions 0 1067 16.83% 16.11%
21 1995-09-24 29.23 Sliema Wanderers 5 1324 69.55% @ Rabat Ajax 1 1077 14.45% 15.99%
22 1995-10-08 29.00 @ Valletta 4 1463 72.36% Birkirkara 0 1176 11.82% 15.82%
23 1995-10-15 28.64 @ Floriana 5 1346 75.01% Zurrieq 0 1014 9.39% 15.60%
24 1996-04-21 28.19 Sliema Wanderers 2 1431 32.70% @ Valletta 1 1497 50.84% 16.46%
25 1995-10-08 27.30 Sliema Wanderers 7 1379 75.30% @ Zurrieq 1 1042 9.13% 15.57%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-12-17 61.8 @ Hibernians 1 1401 25.78% Valletta 1 1524 57.84% 16.37%
2 1995-10-22 59.8 @ Rabat Ajax 2 1005 44.53% Zurrieq 2 986 38.97% 16.50%
3 1996-05-19 59.8 @ Rabat Ajax 2 1042 25.56% Birkirkara 2 1167 58.07% 16.37%
4 1996-05-12 58.3 @ Floriana 1 1406 42.85% Hibernians 1 1398 40.65% 16.50%
5 1996-02-18 57.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1276 14.72% Valletta 1 1519 69.27% 16.01%
6 1996-04-07 57.0 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1307 26.33% Hibernians 1 1425 57.29% 16.38%
7 1995-10-22 56.8 St. Patrick 2 909 5.60% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1340 79.37% 15.03%
8 1995-10-08 56.6 St. Patrick 3 888 23.02% @ Naxxar Lions 2 1037 60.66% 16.31%
9 1995-11-19 56.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1261 20.76% Sliema Wanderers 1 1432 62.99% 16.25%
10 1996-04-21 56.0 Sliema Wanderers 2 1431 32.70% @ Valletta 1 1497 50.84% 16.46%
11 1996-04-28 56.0 @ Floriana 0 1389 30.97% Valletta 0 1469 52.59% 16.45%
12 1995-12-03 55.9 @ Valletta 1 1535 81.39% Naxxar Lions 1 1043 4.01% 14.60%
13 1995-12-03 55.6 @ Floriana 1 1347 52.66% Hamrun Spartans 1 1267 30.89% 16.44%
14 1995-10-22 55.4 @ Hibernians 1 1417 73.35% Birkirkara 1 1114 10.91% 15.75%
15 1995-09-24 55.2 @ Naxxar Lions 1 1058 8.57% Hibernians 1 1407 75.93% 15.51%
16 1996-03-10 54.9 @ Naxxar Lions 1 1102 17.06% Hamrun Spartans 1 1314 66.82% 16.12%
17 1995-09-24 54.5 St. Patrick 2 852 12.93% @ Zurrieq 1 1121 71.17% 15.90%
18 1995-10-08 53.1 @ Hibernians 0 1411 54.78% Hamrun Spartans 0 1314 28.80% 16.42%
19 1995-10-29 52.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1394 39.74% Hibernians 2 1408 43.76% 16.50%
20 1995-10-29 52.5 @ Birkirkara 2 1124 20.65% Hamrun Spartans 1 1296 63.10% 16.25%
21 1995-10-15 51.3 Naxxar Lions 2 1005 23.64% @ Birkirkara 1 1147 60.04% 16.33%
22 1996-02-18 51.3 @ Birkirkara 0 1089 13.68% Floriana 0 1347 70.38% 15.95%
23 1996-03-10 49.7 @ Floriana 1 1338 25.60% Sliema Wanderers 0 1462 58.03% 16.37%
24 1996-05-26 49.6 @ Naxxar Lions 3 1079 46.42% Rabat Ajax 2 1046 37.09% 16.49%
25 1995-10-15 48.8 Valletta 2 1492 53.42% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1406 30.15% 16.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-05-19 23.8 @ Hibernians 6 1398 83.36% Zurrieq 0 827 2.63% 14.02%
2 1996-05-05 24.0 @ Valletta 7 1466 83.87% Zurrieq 0 870 2.30% 13.83%
3 1996-05-19 24.0 Sliema Wanderers 3 1537 86.46% @ St. Patrick 0 789 1.00% 12.54%
4 1996-03-10 24.2 @ Valletta 8 1481 84.28% St. Patrick 0 865 2.06% 13.66%
5 1995-10-15 24.6 Hibernians 4 1407 81.23% @ St. Patrick 0 920 4.13% 14.64%
6 1996-04-21 24.8 Floriana 4 1378 80.44% @ Zurrieq 0 916 4.74% 14.82%
7 1995-12-03 25.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1426 82.44% St. Patrick 0 894 3.24% 14.31%
8 1996-05-12 25.7 @ Valletta 4 1475 78.92% Rabat Ajax 0 1057 5.98% 15.10%
9 1996-05-26 26.1 @ Floriana 2 1461 85.31% St. Patrick 0 788 1.51% 13.19%
10 1995-10-15 26.2 @ Floriana 5 1346 75.01% Zurrieq 0 1014 9.39% 15.60%
11 1996-05-12 26.3 @ Birkirkara 5 1136 74.11% St. Patrick 0 820 10.21% 15.68%
12 1996-04-21 26.6 @ Hibernians 2 1421 83.43% St. Patrick 0 847 2.58% 13.99%
13 1996-05-19 27.2 Valletta 3 1490 78.16% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1091 6.62% 15.22%
14 1996-04-28 27.3 Hamrun Spartans 2 1330 81.22% @ St. Patrick 0 843 4.14% 14.64%
15 1995-12-03 27.9 Hibernians 2 1394 79.48% @ Zurrieq 0 960 5.51% 15.01%
16 1995-10-15 28.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1318 72.60% Rabat Ajax 0 1027 11.59% 15.80%
17 1995-10-08 28.4 @ Valletta 4 1463 72.36% Birkirkara 0 1176 11.82% 15.82%
18 1995-10-08 28.7 Sliema Wanderers 7 1379 75.30% @ Zurrieq 1 1042 9.13% 15.57%
19 1996-04-28 28.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 7 1459 76.68% Naxxar Lions 1 1094 7.90% 15.42%
20 1996-04-07 29.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1429 81.87% Zurrieq 0 919 3.65% 14.48%
21 1996-05-05 29.6 Floriana 2 1393 74.48% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1071 9.87% 15.65%
22 1995-10-01 29.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1283 67.06% Naxxar Lions 0 1067 16.83% 16.11%
23 1996-05-12 30.2 Naxxar Lions 3 1058 65.44% @ Zurrieq 0 861 18.38% 16.17%
24 1995-10-29 30.6 Valletta 4 1525 82.61% @ Zurrieq 1 986 3.13% 14.26%
25 1996-02-18 30.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 7 1448 77.82% Rabat Ajax 2 1057 6.91% 15.27%