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2010-11 Maltese Premier League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valletta

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floriana

7.87 points above expected

34 points · 26.13 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Qormi

24.85 points below expected

18 points · 42.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 18 13 5 0 44 42 11 +31 38.88 +5.12
2 Tarxien Rainbows 18 8 5 5 29 25 22 +3 23.85 +5.15
3 Floriana 18 8 3 7 27 25 20 +5 22.15 +4.85
4 Birkirkara 18 7 6 5 27 25 25 0 32.61 -5.61
5 Marsaxlokk 18 5 9 4 24 25 25 0 20.45 +3.55
6 Hamrun Spartans 18 7 2 9 23 31 36 -5 22.37 +0.63
7 Sliema Wanderers 18 5 7 6 22 22 26 -4 22.77 -0.77
8 Qormi 18 5 6 7 21 22 26 -4 26.13 -5.13
9 Hibernians 18 3 6 9 15 23 33 -10 17.71 -2.71
10 Vittoriosa Stars 18 2 5 11 11 20 36 -16 18.02 -7.02
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 28 18 10 0 42 59 17 +42 44.79 -2.79
2 Floriana 28 14 5 9 34 46 32 +14 26.13 +7.87
3 Birkirkara 28 11 9 8 29 42 40 +2 28.36 +0.64
4 Marsaxlokk 28 9 11 8 26 45 43 +2 22.13 +3.87
5 Tarxien Rainbows 28 10 7 11 23 41 45 -4 28.08 -5.08
6 Hamrun Spartans 28 7 6 15 16 44 66 -22 21.50 -5.50
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 24 10 7 7 26 37 31 +6 20.94 +5.06
2 Qormi 24 7 7 10 18 37 43 -6 21.85 -3.85
3 Hibernians 24 6 6 12 17 34 46 -12 13.89 +3.11
4 Vittoriosa Stars 24 3 6 15 10 26 48 -22 11.96 -1.96

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floriana 34 26.13 +7.87
2 Marsaxlokk 26 22.13 +3.87
3 Birkirkara 29 28.36 +0.64
4 Valletta 42 44.79 -2.79
5 Tarxien Rainbows 23 28.08 -5.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Qormi 18 42.85 -24.85
2 Sliema Wanderers 26 42.94 -16.94
3 Vittoriosa Stars 10 22.96 -12.96
4 Hibernians 17 28.89 -11.89
5 Hamrun Spartans 16 21.50 -5.50

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernians 3 Feb 20 – Mar 11 1 in 83
2 Floriana 4 Dec 19 – Jan 23 1 in 38
3 Tarxien Rainbows 3 Oct 31 – Nov 20 1 in 24
4 Valletta 6 Dec 1 – Jan 16 1 in 14
5 Sliema Wanderers 4 Mar 12 – Apr 16 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 4 Jan 7 – Jan 28 1 in 74
2 Floriana 4 Jan 30 – Feb 19 1 in 64
3 Tarxien Rainbows 3 Feb 19 – Mar 4 1 in 22
4 Sliema Wanderers 3 Oct 31 – Nov 20 1 in 19
5 Vittoriosa Stars 4 Sep 12 – Oct 18 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Marsaxlokk 9 Jan 8 – Mar 4 1 in 377
2 Hamrun Spartans 4 Feb 5 – Feb 27 1 in 42
3 Tarxien Rainbows 8 Oct 31 – Jan 9 1 in 27
4 Valletta 28 Sep 12 – May 7 1 in 26
5 Floriana 6 Apr 3 – May 6 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valletta 3 Apr 25 – May 7 1 in 29
2 Sliema Wanderers 8 Oct 25 – Dec 17 1 in 24
3 Hibernians 12 Sep 17 – Jan 8 1 in 21
4 Birkirkara 4 Oct 15 – Nov 4 1 in 16
5 Qormi 6 Dec 5 – Jan 23 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valletta 1520 64 +0 9 11.5 -2.5
Floriana 1319 47 +61 11 7.2 +3.8
Birkirkara 1262 42 +11 8 7.4 +0.6
Marsaxlokk 1188 38 -26 4 6.0 -2.0
Sliema Wanderers 1287 37 +28 12 9.7 +2.3
Tarxien Rainbows 1168 37 -11 5 5.2 -0.2
Qormi 1186 28 -3 7 8.2 -1.2
Hamrun Spartans 1054 27 -35 2 3.7 -1.7
Hibernians 1069 24 -9 6 5.2 +0.8
Vittoriosa Stars 1036 15 -17 4 4.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB MAR QOR SW TR VAL VS
Birkirkara —
1-0-3
7.21
1-3-0
7.48
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-2
7.44
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
3.88
2-2-0
6.42
0-2-2
3.11
1-1-0
4.03
Floriana
3-0-1
3.69
 —
4-0-0
5.97
0-1-1
3.19
1-1-2
6.11
2-0-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-2
5.72
0-2-2
2.18
1-1-0
3.34
Hamrun Spartans
0-3-1
3.41
0-0-4
4.87
 —
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-4
4.82
2-0-0
2.17
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-2
5.04
0-2-2
1.74
2-0-0
3.14
Hibernians
0-0-2
1.29
1-1-0
2.22
1-0-1
2.04
 —
0-2-0
2.60
1-1-2
3.72
1-1-2
3.61
1-0-1
1.73
0-1-1
0.93
1-0-3
5.89
Marsaxlokk
2-0-2
3.46
2-1-1
4.71
4-0-0
6.01
0-2-0
2.81
 —
0-1-1
2.13
0-2-0
2.31
1-1-2
5.39
0-2-2
1.98
0-2-0
3.15
Qormi
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
3.25
2-1-1
7.14
1-1-0
3.29
 —
0-2-2
5.74
1-1-0
2.88
0-0-2
1.45
2-2-0
7.22
Sliema Wanderers
0-1-1
1.57
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.36
2-1-1
7.27
0-2-0
3.10
2-2-0
5.08
 —
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-2
1.06
4-0-0
7.36
Tarxien Rainbows
0-2-2
4.41
2-0-2
5.11
2-1-1
5.78
1-0-1
3.71
2-1-1
5.44
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.77
 —
0-1-3
2.05
2-0-0
3.26
Valletta
2-2-0
7.83
2-2-0
8.89
2-2-0
9.45
1-1-0
4.65
2-2-0
9.14
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
4.48
3-1-0
9.06
 —
2-0-0
4.48
Vittoriosa Stars
0-1-1
1.44
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
2.27
3-0-1
4.93
0-2-0
2.26
0-2-2
3.65
0-0-4
3.54
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
1.06
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +9.4
Allowed 0.67 -6.0
Differential 0.92 +4.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%6.82%6.44%1.89%1.89%0.38%25.76%
16.82%10.61%3.79%4.17%2.65%1.14%29.17%
26.44%3.79%8.33%1.89%1.89%1.14%23.48%
31.89%4.17%1.89%0.76%1.52%0.38%10.61%
41.89%2.65%1.89%1.52%——7.95%
5+0.38%1.14%1.14%0.38%——3.03%
Total25.76%29.17%23.48%10.61%7.95%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.90
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
17.14%14.29%—3.57%3.57%3.57%32.14%
210.71%3.57%10.71%——3.57%28.57%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%17.86%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.43 +0.07
SD 1.17 1.45 1.98
CV 0.78 1.02 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
17.14%10.71%—7.14%——25.00%
210.71%7.14%————17.86%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+—10.71%————10.71%
Total32.14%42.86%7.14%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.14 +0.50
SD 1.73 1.15 2.22
CV 1.05 1.00 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%——3.57%17.86%
1—14.29%7.14%10.71%3.57%—35.71%
23.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%—21.43%
3—7.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%21.43%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+———————
Total3.57%25.00%32.14%21.43%10.71%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 2.36 -0.79
SD 1.14 1.37 1.73
CV 0.72 0.58 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%12.50%—4.17%—33.33%
14.17%4.17%8.33%4.17%——20.83%
2—4.17%12.50%4.17%—4.17%25.00%
3—8.33%——4.17%—12.50%
4——4.17%4.17%——8.33%
5+———————
Total12.50%25.00%37.50%12.50%8.33%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.92 -0.50
SD 1.32 1.28 1.56
CV 0.93 0.67 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
17.14%14.29%——3.57%—25.00%
23.57%3.57%14.29%—7.14%—28.57%
3——3.57%———3.57%
43.57%—3.57%———7.14%
5+——3.57%3.57%——7.14%
Total25.00%25.00%32.14%7.14%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.54 +0.07
SD 1.59 1.26 1.74
CV 0.99 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%4.17%—8.33%—33.33%
18.33%4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%—25.00%
2—4.17%12.50%———16.67%
3————8.33%—8.33%
4—8.33%4.17%———12.50%
5+——4.17%———4.17%
Total20.83%25.00%29.17%4.17%20.83%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.79 -0.25
SD 1.56 1.41 1.94
CV 1.01 0.79 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%——4.17%—29.17%
18.33%8.33%4.17%—8.33%—29.17%
24.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%——16.67%
3—4.17%4.17%———8.33%
48.33%4.17%—4.17%——16.67%
5+———————
Total37.50%29.17%12.50%8.33%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.29 +0.25
SD 1.44 1.40 1.98
CV 0.94 1.08 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
17.14%7.14%7.14%10.71%—3.57%35.71%
27.14%3.57%3.57%——3.57%17.86%
3—7.14%—3.57%——10.71%
4—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%21.43%17.86%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.61 -0.14
SD 1.29 1.42 1.82
CV 0.88 0.89 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
114.29%17.86%————32.14%
217.86%—10.71%———28.57%
37.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+3.57%—3.57%———7.14%
Total57.14%25.00%17.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.61 +1.50
SD 1.37 0.79 1.48
CV 0.65 1.29 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%16.67%8.33%4.17%——33.33%
14.17%8.33%8.33%—4.17%4.17%29.17%
24.17%4.17%12.50%8.33%4.17%—33.33%
3————4.17%—4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%29.17%29.17%12.50%12.50%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 2.00 -0.92
SD 0.93 1.47 1.47
CV 0.86 0.74 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1520 42 38.88 +3.12 83.0% 27 31 35 38 43 47 52
Floriana 1319 34 22.15 +11.85 86.0% 8 13 18 23 25 32 40
Sliema Wanderers 1287 26 22.77 +3.23 45.0% 10 14 19 23 26 32 36
Birkirkara 1262 29 32.61 -3.61 11.0% 20 24 29 33 36 40 46
Marsaxlokk 1188 26 20.45 +5.55 77.0% 10 12 17 19 24 31 35
Qormi 1186 18 26.13 -8.13 22.0% 12 17 22 26 30 36 39
Tarxien Rainbows 1168 23 23.85 -0.85 88.0% 12 17 20 24 27 31 34
Hibernians 1069 17 17.71 -0.71 26.0% 8 10 15 18 20 26 29
Hamrun Spartans 1054 16 22.37 -6.37 61.0% 11 15 18 22 26 31 36
Vittoriosa Stars 1036 10 18.02 -8.02 11.0% 6 10 15 18 21 26 37

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-6.82%
No Edge
32.58%28.03%39.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -23.73 Elo pts.
242 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.04 goals
Neutral
-2-0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Valletta, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.16 * Some Luck: 4.16 to 6.23 * Lucky: 6.23 to 8.31 * Wild Swing: 8.31 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.63 * Way Off: 2.63 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.52 points
Some Luck
05.2013
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Off
01.654
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
88.00%
Tarxien Rainbows
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
Birkirkara
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 125.66
1.43
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.33
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.73
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.086
Well Within Noise
00.1490.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678910
Valletta78.00%17.00%5.00%———————
Floriana1.00%5.00%10.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%12.00%
Birkirkara15.00%46.00%23.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%——
Marsaxlokk—5.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%14.00%19.00%17.00%13.00%
Tarxien Rainbows—8.00%13.00%16.00%20.00%16.00%5.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%
Hamrun Spartans—4.00%8.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%19.00%9.00%13.00%7.00%
Sliema Wanderers3.00%2.00%11.00%21.00%14.00%12.00%8.00%15.00%9.00%5.00%
Qormi3.00%12.00%19.00%13.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%
Hibernians——2.00%4.00%4.00%9.00%13.00%17.00%19.00%32.00%
Vittoriosa Stars—1.00%1.00%5.00%3.00%12.00%17.00%10.00%25.00%26.00%
Team12345678910
Valletta98.31%1.56%0.12%0.01%——————
Floriana0.23%20.35%24.86%26.14%18.14%10.28%————
Birkirkara0.77%34.08%28.39%20.27%11.31%5.18%————
Marsaxlokk0.03%4.96%10.71%18.13%30.92%35.25%————
Tarxien Rainbows0.66%35.49%27.87%19.62%11.43%4.93%————
Hamrun Spartans—3.56%8.05%15.83%28.20%44.36%————
Sliema Wanderers——————45.92%43.76%8.92%1.40%
Qormi——————51.02%41.51%6.38%1.09%
Hibernians——————2.30%9.92%54.78%33.00%
Vittoriosa Stars——————0.76%4.81%29.92%64.51%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Qormi 96.00% 4.00%
Tarxien Rainbows 94.00% 6.00%
Sliema Wanderers 93.00% 7.00%
Floriana 84.00% 16.00%
Hamrun Spartans 81.00% 19.00%
Marsaxlokk 74.00% 26.00%
Vittoriosa Stars 40.00% 60.00%
Hibernians 38.00% 62.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Marsaxlokk 100% —
Tarxien Rainbows 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Qormi 92.53% 7.47%
Sliema Wanderers 89.68% 10.32%
Hibernians 12.22% 87.78%
Vittoriosa Stars 5.57% 94.43%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-09-11 Hamrun Spartans L 1-346.7 1280 1182 48.20% 28.82% 22.97%+0.31 -26.8 0
2010-09-11 @ Qormi W 3-146.7 1182 1280 22.97% 28.82% 48.20%-0.31 +26.8 3
2010-09-11 Hibernians L 1-344.2 1142 1107 40.02% 29.61% 30.37%+0.05 -23.1 0
2010-09-11 @ Floriana W 3-144.2 1107 1142 30.37% 29.61% 40.02%-0.05 +23.1 3
2010-09-12 Marsaxlokk D 0-047.7 1172 1100 44.98% 29.23% 25.79%+0.20 -1.5 1
2010-09-12 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 0-047.7 1100 1172 25.79% 29.23% 44.98%-0.20 +1.5 1
2010-09-12 Vittoriosa Stars W 3-027.6 1397 1159 62.94% 24.84% 12.22%+0.89 +14.3 3
2010-09-12 @ Valletta L 0-327.6 1159 1397 12.22% 24.84% 62.94%-0.89 -14.3 0
2010-09-13 Birkirkara L 1-434.2 1190 1359 16.65% 27.13% 56.22%-0.80 -16.3 0
2010-09-13 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-134.2 1359 1190 56.22% 27.13% 16.65%+0.80 +16.3 3
2010-09-17 Valletta D 2-259.1 1130 1411 10.12% 23.20% 66.68%-1.26 +3.3 4
2010-09-17 @ Hibernians D 2-259.1 1411 1130 66.68% 23.20% 10.12%+1.26 -3.3 4
2010-09-18 Floriana L 0-245.3 1375 1119 64.59% 24.15% 11.27%+0.96 -39.5 3
2010-09-18 @ Birkirkara W 2-045.3 1119 1375 11.27% 24.15% 64.59%-0.96 +39.5 3
2010-09-18 Qormi L 2-442.5 1145 1253 21.91% 28.62% 49.47%-0.55 -13.1 0
2010-09-18 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 4-242.5 1253 1145 49.47% 28.62% 21.91%+0.55 +13.1 3
2010-09-19 Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.7 1102 1174 25.74% 29.23% 45.04%-0.40 +1.5 2
2010-09-19 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-047.7 1174 1102 45.04% 29.23% 25.74%+0.40 -1.5 1
2010-09-19 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-141.3 1209 1170 40.52% 29.59% 29.89%+0.06 +18.7 6
2010-09-19 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-341.3 1170 1209 29.89% 29.59% 40.52%-0.06 -18.7 1
2010-09-24 Birkirkara L 1-239.7 1133 1336 14.32% 26.08% 59.60%-0.94 -5.8 4
2010-09-24 @ Hibernians W 2-139.7 1336 1133 59.60% 26.08% 14.32%+0.94 +5.8 6
2010-09-25 Qormi W 1-038.0 1408 1266 53.37% 27.85% 18.78%+0.49 +7.9 7
2010-09-25 @ Valletta L 0-138.0 1266 1408 18.78% 27.85% 53.37%-0.49 -7.9 3
2010-09-25 Vittoriosa Stars W 1-041.1 1152 1132 38.00% 29.69% 32.31%-0.01 +12.1 4
2010-09-25 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 0-141.1 1132 1152 32.31% 29.69% 38.00%+0.01 -12.1 0
2010-09-26 Hamrun Spartans W 3-145.1 1172 1227 27.79% 29.44% 42.78%-0.33 +24.3 4
2010-09-26 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-345.1 1227 1172 42.78% 29.44% 27.79%+0.33 -24.3 6
2010-09-26 Marsaxlokk L 0-144.1 1158 1103 42.76% 29.44% 27.80%+0.13 -14.9 3
2010-09-26 @ Floriana W 1-044.1 1103 1158 27.80% 29.44% 42.76%-0.13 +14.9 5
2010-10-15 Valletta D 2-259.5 1342 1416 25.50% 29.20% 45.30%-0.41 +1.1 7
2010-10-15 @ Birkirkara D 2-259.5 1416 1342 45.30% 29.20% 25.50%+0.41 -1.0 8
2010-10-17 Floriana L 1-249.2 1203 1143 43.43% 29.38% 27.19%+0.15 -14.2 6
2010-10-17 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-149.2 1143 1203 27.19% 29.38% 43.43%-0.15 +14.2 6
2010-10-17 Hibernians D 2-256.6 1118 1128 33.77% 29.72% 36.51%-0.14 +0.1 6
2010-10-17 @ Marsaxlokk D 2-256.6 1128 1118 36.51% 29.72% 33.77%+0.14 -0.1 5
2010-10-18 Sliema Wanderers L 0-138.8 1119 1197 25.18% 29.16% 45.66%-0.42 -10.0 0
2010-10-18 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 1-038.8 1197 1119 45.66% 29.16% 25.18%+0.42 +10.0 7
2010-10-18 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-143.1 1258 1164 47.79% 28.88% 23.33%+0.29 +8.9 6
2010-10-18 @ Qormi L 1-243.1 1164 1258 23.33% 28.88% 47.79%-0.29 -8.9 4
2010-10-23 Tarxien Rainbows W 5-234.6 1415 1155 64.87% 24.02% 11.11%+0.98 +9.4 11
2010-10-23 @ Valletta L 2-534.6 1155 1415 11.11% 24.02% 64.87%-0.98 -9.4 4
2010-10-23 Vittoriosa Stars D 0-047.6 1157 1109 41.83% 29.51% 28.67%+0.10 -1.0 7
2010-10-23 @ Floriana D 0-047.6 1109 1157 28.67% 29.51% 41.83%-0.10 +1.0 1
2010-10-24 Hamrun Spartans L 3-451.8 1127 1189 27.01% 29.36% 43.63%-0.35 -9.3 5
2010-10-24 @ Hibernians W 4-351.8 1189 1127 43.63% 29.36% 27.01%+0.35 +9.3 9
2010-10-24 Marsaxlokk L 2-549.8 1343 1118 61.69% 25.33% 12.98%+0.83 -40.4 7
2010-10-24 @ Birkirkara W 5-249.8 1118 1343 12.98% 25.33% 61.69%-0.83 +40.4 9
2010-10-25 Qormi D 0-047.9 1207 1267 27.15% 29.38% 43.47%-0.35 +1.3 8
2010-10-25 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.9 1267 1207 43.47% 29.38% 27.15%+0.35 -1.3 7
2010-10-29 Birkirkara D 1-152.3 1198 1302 22.32% 28.70% 48.98%-0.53 +1.9 10
2010-10-29 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.3 1302 1198 48.98% 28.70% 22.32%+0.53 -1.9 8
2010-10-30 Floriana L 0-146.1 1266 1156 49.62% 28.60% 21.78%+0.35 -16.8 7
2010-10-30 @ Qormi W 1-046.1 1156 1266 21.78% 28.60% 49.62%-0.35 +16.8 10
2010-10-31 Hibernians W 2-038.1 1110 1118 34.03% 29.72% 36.25%-0.13 +24.8 4
2010-10-31 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 0-238.1 1118 1110 36.25% 29.72% 34.03%+0.13 -24.8 5
2010-10-31 Sliema Wanderers W 2-149.3 1146 1208 26.89% 29.35% 43.76%-0.36 +14.3 7
2010-10-31 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-249.3 1208 1146 43.76% 29.35% 26.89%+0.36 -14.3 8
2010-11-01 Valletta L 0-229.4 1158 1424 10.83% 23.80% 65.37%-1.20 -8.6 9
2010-11-01 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-029.4 1424 1158 65.37% 23.80% 10.83%+1.20 +8.6 14
2010-11-04 Vittoriosa Stars D 1-152.6 1300 1135 55.84% 27.23% 16.93%+0.58 -2.9 9
2010-11-04 @ Birkirkara D 1-152.6 1135 1300 16.93% 27.23% 55.84%-0.58 +2.9 5
2010-11-05 Sliema Wanderers W 4-027.6 1433 1194 63.04% 24.80% 12.16%+0.89 +18.5 17
2010-11-05 @ Valletta L 0-427.6 1194 1433 12.16% 24.80% 63.04%-0.89 -18.5 8
2010-11-06 Hamrun Spartans W 2-148.8 1150 1200 28.38% 29.48% 42.14%-0.31 +13.9 12
2010-11-06 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-248.8 1200 1150 42.14% 29.48% 28.38%+0.31 -13.9 10
2010-11-06 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-238.4 1173 1160 37.04% 29.71% 33.25%-0.04 -25.2 10
2010-11-06 @ Floriana W 2-038.4 1160 1173 33.25% 29.71% 37.04%+0.04 +25.2 10
2010-11-08 Qormi D 0-048.3 1093 1249 17.67% 27.50% 54.83%-0.74 +3.1 6
2010-11-08 @ Hibernians D 0-048.3 1249 1093 54.83% 27.50% 17.67%+0.74 -3.1 8
2010-11-20 Floriana L 0-143.1 1175 1148 39.00% 29.66% 31.35%+0.01 -13.9 8
2010-11-20 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-043.1 1148 1175 31.35% 29.66% 39.00%-0.01 +13.9 13
2010-11-20 Hibernians W 2-034.2 1185 1097 47.07% 28.98% 23.94%+0.27 +18.2 13
2010-11-20 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 0-234.2 1097 1185 23.94% 28.98% 47.07%-0.27 -18.2 6
2010-11-21 Birkirkara L 0-236.1 1246 1297 28.22% 29.47% 42.31%-0.31 -20.7 8
2010-11-21 @ Qormi W 2-036.1 1297 1246 42.31% 29.47% 28.22%+0.31 +20.7 12
2010-11-21 Marsaxlokk D 1-151.6 1138 1164 31.58% 29.66% 38.76%-0.20 +0.5 6
2010-11-21 @ Vittoriosa Stars D 1-151.6 1164 1138 38.76% 29.66% 31.58%+0.20 -0.5 13
2010-11-26 Vittoriosa Stars W 2-035.8 1186 1139 41.78% 29.51% 28.71%+0.10 +21.0 13
2010-11-26 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-235.8 1139 1186 28.71% 29.51% 41.78%-0.10 -21.0 6
2010-11-27 Floriana D 0-050.6 1452 1162 67.37% 22.87% 9.76%+1.10 -5.1 18
2010-11-27 @ Valletta D 0-050.6 1162 1452 9.76% 22.87% 67.37%-1.10 +5.1 14
2010-11-27 Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.7 1078 1161 24.54% 29.07% 46.39%-0.44 +1.7 7
2010-11-27 @ Hibernians D 0-047.7 1161 1078 46.39% 29.07% 24.54%+0.44 -1.7 9
2010-11-28 Qormi L 0-139.5 1163 1225 26.96% 29.36% 43.68%-0.35 -10.6 13
2010-11-28 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-039.5 1225 1163 43.68% 29.36% 26.96%+0.35 +10.6 11
2010-11-28 Tarxien Rainbows D 0-048.4 1318 1203 50.26% 28.48% 21.25%+0.38 -2.4 13
2010-11-28 @ Birkirkara D 0-048.4 1203 1318 21.25% 28.48% 50.26%-0.38 +2.4 14
2010-12-01 Valletta L 0-230.7 1207 1447 12.16% 24.80% 63.04%-1.09 -9.8 13
2010-12-01 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-030.7 1447 1207 63.04% 24.80% 12.16%+1.09 +9.8 21
2010-12-04 Floriana D 1-151.8 1080 1167 24.12% 29.01% 46.87%-0.46 +1.6 8
2010-12-04 @ Hibernians D 1-151.8 1167 1080 46.87% 29.01% 24.12%+0.46 -1.6 15
2010-12-04 Tarxien Rainbows L 2-444.5 1153 1206 28.05% 29.46% 42.49%-0.32 -16.0 13
2010-12-04 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-244.5 1206 1153 42.49% 29.46% 28.05%+0.32 +16.0 17
2010-12-05 Qormi W 2-148.5 1197 1236 29.89% 29.59% 40.52%-0.26 +13.5 16
2010-12-05 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-248.5 1236 1197 40.52% 29.59% 29.89%+0.26 -13.5 11
2010-12-05 Sliema Wanderers D 2-257.6 1316 1160 54.89% 27.48% 17.63%+0.55 -2.1 14
2010-12-05 @ Birkirkara D 2-257.6 1160 1316 17.63% 27.48% 54.89%-0.55 +2.1 10
2010-12-06 Valletta L 2-341.3 1118 1456 7.91% 20.89% 71.20%-1.50 -2.9 6
2010-12-06 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 3-241.3 1456 1118 71.20% 20.89% 7.91%+1.50 +2.9 24
2010-12-10 Hamrun Spartans W 3-142.5 1222 1211 36.66% 29.72% 33.63%-0.05 +20.4 20
2010-12-10 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-342.5 1211 1222 33.63% 29.72% 36.66%+0.05 -20.4 16
2010-12-12 Marsaxlokk D 1-151.6 1162 1137 38.68% 29.67% 31.65%+0.01 -0.5 11
2010-12-12 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.6 1137 1162 31.65% 29.67% 38.68%-0.01 +0.5 14
2010-12-12 Vittoriosa Stars D 2-257.0 1222 1115 49.39% 28.63% 21.98%+0.35 -1.5 12
2010-12-12 @ Qormi D 2-257.0 1115 1222 21.98% 28.63% 49.39%-0.35 +1.5 7
2010-12-13 Birkirkara L 0-136.6 1165 1314 18.26% 27.69% 54.05%-0.71 -7.7 15
2010-12-13 @ Floriana W 1-036.6 1314 1165 54.05% 27.69% 18.26%+0.71 +7.7 17
2010-12-13 Hibernians W 2-026.6 1459 1082 74.04% 19.28% 6.68%+1.46 +5.0 27
2010-12-13 @ Valletta L 0-226.6 1082 1459 6.68% 19.28% 74.04%-1.46 -5.0 8
2010-12-17 Sliema Wanderers W 3-250.2 1191 1161 39.29% 29.64% 31.07%+0.02 +10.5 19
2010-12-17 @ Hamrun Spartans L 2-350.2 1161 1191 31.07% 29.64% 39.29%-0.02 -10.5 11
2010-12-18 Hibernians W 3-134.4 1321 1077 63.51% 24.60% 11.88%+0.91 +8.3 20
2010-12-18 @ Birkirkara L 1-334.4 1077 1321 11.88% 24.60% 63.51%-0.91 -8.3 8
2010-12-18 Valletta L 0-428.0 1221 1464 11.95% 24.65% 63.40%-1.10 -18.2 12
2010-12-18 @ Qormi W 4-028.0 1464 1221 63.40% 24.65% 11.95%+1.10 +18.2 30
2010-12-19 Floriana L 0-334.4 1137 1158 32.27% 29.69% 38.04%-0.18 -33.2 14
2010-12-19 @ Marsaxlokk W 3-034.4 1158 1137 38.04% 29.69% 32.27%+0.18 +33.2 18
2010-12-19 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-137.1 1116 1242 20.25% 28.25% 51.50%-0.62 -8.4 7
2010-12-19 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 1-037.1 1242 1116 51.50% 28.25% 20.25%+0.62 +8.4 23
2011-01-07 Hamrun Spartans W 3-143.4 1191 1201 33.67% 29.72% 36.62%-0.14 +21.6 21
2011-01-07 @ Floriana L 1-343.4 1201 1191 36.62% 29.72% 33.67%+0.14 -21.6 19
2011-01-08 Birkirkara W 3-140.8 1482 1330 54.53% 27.57% 17.90%+0.53 +12.3 33
2011-01-08 @ Valletta L 1-340.8 1330 1482 17.90% 27.57% 54.53%-0.53 -12.3 20
2011-01-08 Marsaxlokk D 2-256.6 1068 1104 30.25% 29.61% 40.14%-0.25 +0.5 9
2011-01-08 @ Hibernians D 2-256.6 1104 1068 40.14% 29.61% 30.25%+0.25 -0.5 15
2011-01-09 Qormi D 1-151.9 1250 1203 41.79% 29.51% 28.70%+0.10 -0.9 24
2011-01-09 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 1-151.9 1203 1250 28.70% 29.51% 41.79%-0.10 +0.9 13
2011-01-09 Vittoriosa Stars W 4-352.5 1151 1108 41.12% 29.55% 29.32%+0.08 +9.8 14
2011-01-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 3-452.5 1108 1151 29.32% 29.55% 41.12%-0.08 -9.9 7
2011-01-14 Hibernians L 2-450.7 1179 1069 49.75% 28.57% 21.68%+0.36 -24.6 19
2011-01-14 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-250.7 1069 1179 21.68% 28.57% 49.75%-0.36 +24.6 12
2011-01-15 Birkirkara W 2-044.4 1104 1317 13.62% 25.70% 60.68%-0.98 +37.5 18
2011-01-15 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-244.4 1317 1104 60.68% 25.70% 13.62%+0.98 -37.5 20
2011-01-15 Sliema Wanderers D 0-047.7 1204 1161 41.16% 29.55% 29.29%+0.08 -0.9 14
2011-01-15 @ Qormi D 0-047.7 1161 1204 29.29% 29.55% 41.16%-0.08 +0.9 15
2011-01-16 Floriana L 1-634.0 1098 1212 21.31% 28.50% 50.20%-0.57 -32.1 7
2011-01-16 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 6-134.0 1212 1098 50.20% 28.50% 21.31%+0.57 +32.0 24
2011-01-16 Valletta L 0-231.7 1249 1495 11.85% 24.58% 63.57%-1.11 -9.5 24
2011-01-16 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-031.7 1495 1249 63.57% 24.58% 11.85%+1.11 +9.5 36
2011-01-22 Hamrun Spartans W 2-033.1 1280 1155 51.42% 28.27% 20.32%+0.42 +15.9 23
2011-01-22 @ Birkirkara L 0-233.1 1155 1280 20.32% 28.27% 51.42%-0.42 -15.9 19
2011-01-22 Marsaxlokk D 0-051.7 1504 1141 73.01% 19.88% 7.11%+1.40 -5.8 37
2011-01-22 @ Valletta D 0-051.7 1141 1504 7.11% 19.88% 73.01%-1.40 +5.8 19
2011-01-23 Qormi W 4-352.8 1244 1203 41.00% 29.56% 29.44%+0.07 +9.9 27
2011-01-23 @ Floriana L 3-452.8 1203 1244 29.44% 29.56% 41.00%-0.07 -9.9 14
2011-01-23 Vittoriosa Stars L 1-247.8 1094 1066 39.03% 29.65% 31.31%+0.02 -13.1 12
2011-01-23 @ Hibernians W 2-147.8 1066 1094 31.31% 29.65% 39.03%-0.02 +13.1 10
2011-01-24 Tarxien Rainbows D 1-151.9 1161 1240 25.05% 29.14% 45.81%-0.42 +1.5 16
2011-01-24 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-151.9 1240 1161 45.81% 29.14% 25.05%+0.42 -1.5 25
2011-01-28 Marsaxlokk L 2-351.1 1139 1147 34.02% 29.72% 36.26%-0.13 -11.2 19
2011-01-28 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-251.1 1147 1139 36.26% 29.72% 34.02%+0.13 +11.2 22
2011-01-29 Hibernians W 1-037.5 1193 1080 49.96% 28.54% 21.50%+0.37 +8.8 17
2011-01-29 @ Qormi L 0-137.5 1080 1193 21.50% 28.54% 49.96%-0.37 -8.8 12
2011-01-29 Valletta L 1-430.6 1163 1498 8.01% 21.02% 70.97%-1.49 -7.5 16
2011-01-29 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-130.6 1498 1163 70.97% 21.02% 8.01%+1.49 +7.5 40
2011-01-30 Birkirkara L 0-134.3 1079 1296 13.45% 25.61% 60.94%-0.99 -5.7 10
2011-01-30 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 1-034.3 1296 1079 60.94% 25.61% 13.45%+0.99 +5.7 26
2011-01-30 Floriana W 3-143.8 1238 1254 32.89% 29.70% 37.40%-0.16 +22.0 28
2011-01-30 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-343.8 1254 1238 37.40% 29.70% 32.89%+0.16 -22.0 27
2011-02-04 Vittoriosa Stars D 2-256.8 1158 1073 46.61% 29.04% 24.35%+0.25 -1.2 23
2011-02-04 @ Marsaxlokk D 2-256.8 1073 1158 24.35% 29.04% 46.61%-0.25 +1.2 11
2011-02-05 Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.9 1506 1128 74.08% 19.26% 6.66%+1.47 -5.3 41
2011-02-05 @ Valletta D 1-155.9 1128 1506 6.66% 19.26% 74.08%-1.47 +5.3 20
2011-02-05 Qormi L 1-444.1 1301 1202 48.46% 28.78% 22.76%+0.31 -38.0 26
2011-02-05 @ Birkirkara W 4-144.1 1202 1301 22.76% 28.78% 48.46%-0.31 +38.0 20
2011-02-06 Sliema Wanderers L 0-145.0 1232 1155 45.62% 29.16% 25.21%+0.22 -15.7 27
2011-02-06 @ Floriana W 1-045.0 1155 1232 25.21% 29.16% 45.62%-0.22 +15.7 19
2011-02-06 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-148.8 1072 1260 15.22% 26.52% 58.26%-0.88 +31.4 15
2011-02-06 @ Hibernians L 1-348.8 1260 1072 58.26% 26.52% 15.22%+0.88 -31.4 28
2011-02-12 Birkirkara D 0-047.9 1229 1263 30.41% 29.61% 39.98%-0.24 +0.7 29
2011-02-12 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 0-047.9 1263 1229 39.98% 29.61% 30.41%+0.24 -0.7 27
2011-02-12 Valletta L 0-230.3 1217 1501 10.01% 23.10% 66.89%-1.27 -7.9 27
2011-02-12 @ Floriana W 2-030.3 1501 1217 66.89% 23.10% 10.01%+1.27 +7.9 44
2011-02-13 Hamrun Spartans L 2-348.9 1075 1133 27.37% 29.40% 43.23%-0.34 -9.6 11
2011-02-13 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 3-248.9 1133 1075 43.23% 29.40% 27.37%+0.34 +9.6 23
2011-02-13 Hibernians W 4-032.1 1171 1103 44.48% 29.28% 26.24%+0.18 +37.1 22
2011-02-13 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-432.1 1103 1171 26.24% 29.28% 44.48%-0.18 -37.1 15
2011-02-13 Marsaxlokk D 2-257.0 1240 1157 46.35% 29.07% 24.58%+0.24 -1.2 21
2011-02-13 @ Qormi D 2-257.0 1157 1240 24.58% 29.07% 46.35%-0.24 +1.2 24

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-02-19 Birkirkara L 1-341.7 1230 1263 30.60% 29.62% 39.78%-0.23 -19.0 0
2011-02-19 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-141.7 1263 1230 39.78% 29.62% 30.60%+0.23 +19.0 3
2011-02-19 Floriana W 4-037.0 1158 1209 28.32% 29.48% 42.20%-0.31 +52.7 3
2011-02-19 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-437.0 1209 1158 42.20% 29.48% 28.32%+0.31 -52.7 0
2011-02-20 Valletta D 1-155.9 1143 1509 7.03% 19.76% 73.21%-1.61 +5.2 1
2011-02-20 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.9 1509 1143 73.21% 19.76% 7.03%+1.61 -5.2 1
2011-02-20 Vittoriosa Stars W 2-146.6 1066 1065 35.27% 29.73% 35.00%-0.09 +12.1 3
2011-02-20 @ Hibernians L 1-246.6 1065 1066 35.00% 29.73% 35.27%+0.09 -12.1 0
2011-02-21 Sliema Wanderers L 0-436.3 1238 1208 39.41% 29.64% 30.95%+0.03 -50.0 0
2011-02-21 @ Qormi W 4-036.3 1208 1238 30.95% 29.64% 39.41%-0.03 +50.0 3
2011-02-26 Qormi L 1-434.7 1053 1188 19.35% 28.01% 52.64%-0.66 -18.7 0
2011-02-26 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 4-134.7 1188 1053 52.64% 28.01% 19.35%+0.66 +18.7 3
2011-02-26 Tarxien Rainbows W 5-141.0 1156 1211 27.84% 29.44% 42.72%-0.32 +44.3 3
2011-02-26 @ Floriana L 1-541.0 1211 1156 42.72% 29.44% 27.84%+0.32 -44.3 0
2011-02-27 Birkirkara D 1-152.3 1148 1282 19.50% 28.06% 52.44%-0.65 +2.4 2
2011-02-27 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-152.3 1282 1148 52.44% 28.06% 19.50%+0.65 -2.4 4
2011-02-27 Marsaxlokk D 1-155.7 1503 1211 67.60% 22.76% 9.65%+1.11 -4.6 2
2011-02-27 @ Valletta D 1-155.7 1211 1503 9.65% 22.76% 67.60%-1.11 +4.6 4
2011-03-04 Hibernians L 0-147.8 1258 1078 57.40% 26.79% 15.81%+0.65 -19.0 3
2011-03-04 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-047.8 1078 1258 15.81% 26.79% 57.40%-0.65 +19.0 6
2011-03-04 Marsaxlokk L 0-140.0 1166 1215 28.54% 29.50% 41.97%-0.30 -11.1 0
2011-03-04 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 1-040.0 1215 1166 41.97% 29.50% 28.54%+0.30 +11.1 7
2011-03-05 Hamrun Spartans W 2-035.7 1200 1150 42.12% 29.48% 28.39%+0.11 +20.8 6
2011-03-05 @ Floriana L 0-235.7 1150 1200 28.39% 29.48% 42.12%-0.11 -20.8 2
2011-03-05 Valletta L 0-137.2 1279 1499 13.27% 25.50% 61.23%-1.01 -5.7 4
2011-03-05 @ Birkirkara W 1-037.2 1499 1279 61.23% 25.50% 13.27%+1.01 +5.7 5
2011-03-11 Qormi W 4-358.3 1097 1207 21.72% 28.58% 49.70%-0.55 +14.7 9
2011-03-11 @ Hibernians L 3-458.3 1207 1097 49.70% 28.58% 21.72%+0.55 -14.7 3
2011-03-12 Birkirkara L 1-438.4 1226 1274 28.77% 29.51% 41.72%-0.29 -25.7 7
2011-03-12 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-138.4 1274 1226 41.72% 29.51% 28.77%+0.29 +25.7 7
2011-03-12 Sliema Wanderers L 1-239.3 1034 1239 14.15% 26.00% 59.85%-0.95 -5.7 0
2011-03-12 @ Vittoriosa Stars W 2-139.3 1239 1034 59.85% 26.00% 14.15%+0.95 +5.7 6
2011-03-13 Floriana W 3-028.0 1504 1221 66.83% 23.13% 10.04%+1.07 +11.5 8
2011-03-13 @ Valletta L 0-328.0 1221 1504 10.04% 23.13% 66.83%-1.07 -11.5 6
2011-03-13 Tarxien Rainbows L 1-438.9 1129 1155 31.54% 29.66% 38.79%-0.20 -27.5 2
2011-03-13 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-138.9 1155 1129 38.79% 29.66% 31.54%+0.20 +27.5 3
2011-04-01 Hibernians W 1-045.1 1028 1112 24.52% 29.07% 46.41%-0.44 +15.9 3
2011-04-01 @ Vittoriosa Stars L 0-145.1 1112 1028 46.41% 29.07% 24.52%+0.44 -15.9 9
2011-04-02 Marsaxlokk L 2-442.7 1102 1201 22.86% 28.80% 48.33%-0.51 -13.6 2
2011-04-02 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-242.7 1201 1102 48.33% 28.80% 22.86%+0.51 +13.6 10
2011-04-02 Qormi W 4-138.0 1245 1192 42.44% 29.46% 28.10%+0.12 +25.2 9
2011-04-02 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-438.0 1192 1245 28.10% 29.46% 42.44%-0.12 -25.3 3
2011-04-03 Floriana L 1-542.5 1299 1210 47.21% 28.96% 23.83%+0.27 -48.0 7
2011-04-03 @ Birkirkara W 5-142.5 1210 1299 23.83% 28.96% 47.21%-0.27 +48.0 9
2011-04-03 Valletta L 0-133.0 1183 1516 8.09% 21.11% 70.79%-1.48 -3.3 3
2011-04-03 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 1-033.0 1516 1183 70.79% 21.11% 8.09%+1.48 +3.3 11
2011-04-08 Hamrun Spartans W 5-023.8 1519 1088 77.61% 17.10% 5.29%+1.68 +8.8 14
2011-04-08 @ Valletta L 0-523.8 1088 1519 5.29% 17.10% 77.61%-1.68 -8.8 2
2011-04-09 Marsaxlokk D 1-151.9 1258 1214 41.21% 29.55% 29.24%+0.08 -0.8 10
2011-04-09 @ Floriana D 1-151.9 1214 1258 29.24% 29.55% 41.21%-0.08 +0.8 11
2011-04-09 Vittoriosa Stars D 2-257.0 1167 1044 51.18% 28.31% 20.50%+0.41 -1.7 4
2011-04-09 @ Qormi D 2-257.0 1044 1167 20.50% 28.31% 51.18%-0.41 +1.7 4
2011-04-10 Sliema Wanderers L 2-345.0 1096 1270 16.23% 26.96% 56.80%-0.82 -6.2 9
2011-04-10 @ Hibernians W 3-245.0 1270 1096 56.80% 26.96% 16.23%+0.82 +6.2 12
2011-04-10 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-032.5 1251 1179 44.95% 29.23% 25.81%+0.20 +28.1 10
2011-04-10 @ Birkirkara L 0-332.5 1179 1251 25.81% 29.23% 44.95%-0.20 -28.1 3
2011-04-16 Floriana L 1-242.7 1151 1257 22.18% 28.67% 49.14%-0.53 -8.6 3
2011-04-16 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-142.7 1257 1151 49.14% 28.67% 22.18%+0.53 +8.6 13
2011-04-16 Vittoriosa Stars W 2-029.7 1276 1046 62.22% 25.12% 12.65%+0.85 +10.2 15
2011-04-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-229.7 1046 1276 12.65% 25.12% 62.22%-0.85 -10.2 4
2011-04-17 Hamrun Spartans D 2-257.8 1279 1080 59.33% 26.17% 14.50%+0.73 -2.6 11
2011-04-17 @ Birkirkara D 2-257.8 1080 1279 14.50% 26.17% 59.33%-0.73 +2.6 3
2011-04-17 Valletta L 0-134.2 1215 1528 8.83% 21.94% 69.23%-1.39 -3.6 11
2011-04-17 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-034.2 1528 1215 69.23% 21.94% 8.83%+1.39 +3.7 17
2011-04-18 Hibernians W 5-239.7 1165 1090 45.49% 29.18% 25.34%+0.22 +20.2 7
2011-04-18 @ Qormi L 2-539.7 1090 1165 25.34% 29.18% 45.49%-0.22 -20.2 9
2011-04-23 Floriana L 0-231.0 1082 1265 15.60% 26.69% 57.70%-0.86 -12.5 3
2011-04-23 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-031.0 1265 1082 57.70% 26.69% 15.60%+0.86 +12.5 16
2011-04-23 Tarxien Rainbows L 2-449.4 1211 1143 44.55% 29.28% 26.17%+0.19 -22.5 11
2011-04-23 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-249.4 1143 1211 26.17% 29.28% 44.55%-0.19 +22.5 6
2011-04-25 Birkirkara D 1-157.0 1532 1277 64.43% 24.22% 11.36%+0.96 -4.2 18
2011-04-25 @ Valletta D 1-157.0 1277 1532 11.36% 24.22% 64.43%-0.96 +4.2 12
2011-04-29 Hamrun Spartans D 3-360.7 1165 1070 47.96% 28.86% 23.18%+0.30 -1.1 7
2011-04-29 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 3-360.7 1070 1165 23.18% 28.86% 47.96%-0.30 +1.1 4
2011-04-30 Marsaxlokk W 2-034.3 1281 1189 47.49% 28.92% 23.59%+0.28 +18.0 15
2011-04-30 @ Birkirkara L 0-234.3 1189 1281 23.59% 28.92% 47.49%-0.28 -18.0 11
2011-04-30 Valletta D 1-156.9 1278 1528 11.63% 24.42% 63.95%-1.13 +4.1 17
2011-04-30 @ Floriana D 1-156.9 1528 1278 63.95% 24.42% 11.63%+1.13 -4.1 19
2011-05-06 Birkirkara W 3-036.7 1282 1299 32.77% 29.70% 37.53%-0.17 +36.9 20
2011-05-06 @ Floriana L 0-336.7 1299 1282 37.53% 29.70% 32.77%+0.17 -36.9 15
2011-05-06 Hamrun Spartans W 6-340.1 1171 1071 48.52% 28.77% 22.71%+0.32 +17.1 14
2011-05-06 @ Marsaxlokk L 3-640.1 1071 1171 22.71% 28.77% 48.52%-0.32 -17.1 4
2011-05-07 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-261.2 1523 1164 72.73% 20.04% 7.23%+1.39 -3.8 20
2011-05-07 @ Valletta D 2-261.2 1164 1523 7.23% 20.04% 72.73%-1.39 +3.8 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-09-18 11.27% Floriana 1119 2 @ Birkirkara 1375 0
2 2010-10-24 12.98% Marsaxlokk 1118 5 @ Birkirkara 1343 2
3 2011-01-15 13.62% @ Marsaxlokk 1104 2 Birkirkara 1317 0
4 2011-02-06 15.22% @ Hibernians 1072 3 Tarxien Rainbows 1260 1
5 2011-03-04 15.81% Hibernians 1078 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1258 0
6 2011-01-14 21.68% Hibernians 1069 4 @ Hamrun Spartans 1179 2
7 2011-03-11 21.72% @ Hibernians 1097 4 Qormi 1207 3
8 2010-10-30 21.78% Floriana 1156 1 @ Qormi 1266 0
9 2011-02-05 22.76% Qormi 1202 4 @ Birkirkara 1301 1
10 2010-09-11 22.97% Hamrun Spartans 1182 3 @ Qormi 1280 1
11 2011-04-03 23.83% Floriana 1210 5 @ Birkirkara 1299 1
12 2011-04-01 24.52% @ Vittoriosa Stars 1028 1 Hibernians 1112 0
13 2011-02-06 25.21% Sliema Wanderers 1155 1 @ Floriana 1232 0
14 2011-04-23 26.17% Tarxien Rainbows 1143 4 @ Marsaxlokk 1211 2
15 2010-10-31 26.89% @ Tarxien Rainbows 1146 2 Sliema Wanderers 1208 1
16 2010-10-17 27.19% Floriana 1143 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1203 1
17 2010-09-26 27.79% @ Sliema Wanderers 1172 3 Hamrun Spartans 1227 1
18 2010-09-26 27.80% Marsaxlokk 1103 1 @ Floriana 1158 0
19 2011-02-26 27.84% @ Floriana 1156 5 Tarxien Rainbows 1211 1
20 2011-02-19 28.32% @ Marsaxlokk 1158 4 Floriana 1209 0
21 2010-11-06 28.38% @ Marsaxlokk 1150 2 Hamrun Spartans 1200 1
22 2010-12-05 29.89% @ Hamrun Spartans 1197 2 Qormi 1236 1
23 2010-09-11 30.37% Hibernians 1107 3 @ Floriana 1142 1
24 2011-02-21 30.95% Sliema Wanderers 1208 4 @ Qormi 1238 0
25 2011-01-23 31.31% Vittoriosa Stars 1066 2 @ Hibernians 1094 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-02-19 52.70 @ Marsaxlokk 4 1158 28.32% Floriana 0 1209 42.20% 29.48%
2 2011-02-21 50.03 Sliema Wanderers 4 1208 30.95% @ Qormi 0 1238 39.41% 29.64%
3 2011-04-03 48.04 Floriana 5 1210 23.83% @ Birkirkara 1 1299 47.21% 28.96%
4 2011-02-26 44.34 @ Floriana 5 1156 27.84% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1211 42.72% 29.44%
5 2010-10-24 40.38 Marsaxlokk 5 1118 12.98% @ Birkirkara 2 1343 61.69% 25.33%
6 2010-09-18 39.51 Floriana 2 1119 11.27% @ Birkirkara 0 1375 64.59% 24.15%
7 2011-02-05 38.02 Qormi 4 1202 22.76% @ Birkirkara 1 1301 48.46% 28.78%
8 2011-01-15 37.55 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1104 13.62% Birkirkara 0 1317 60.68% 25.70%
9 2011-02-13 37.13 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1171 44.48% Hibernians 0 1103 26.24% 29.28%
10 2011-05-06 36.94 @ Floriana 3 1282 32.77% Birkirkara 0 1299 37.53% 29.70%
11 2010-12-19 33.17 Floriana 3 1158 38.04% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1137 32.27% 29.69%
12 2011-01-16 32.06 Floriana 6 1212 50.20% @ Vittoriosa Stars 1 1098 21.31% 28.50%
13 2011-02-06 31.42 @ Hibernians 3 1072 15.22% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1260 58.26% 26.52%
14 2011-04-10 28.06 @ Birkirkara 3 1251 44.95% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1179 25.81% 29.23%
15 2011-03-13 27.51 Tarxien Rainbows 4 1155 38.79% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1129 31.54% 29.66%
16 2010-09-11 26.77 Hamrun Spartans 3 1182 22.97% @ Qormi 1 1280 48.20% 28.82%
17 2011-03-12 25.71 Birkirkara 4 1274 41.72% @ Marsaxlokk 1 1226 28.77% 29.51%
18 2011-04-02 25.26 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1245 42.44% Qormi 1 1192 28.10% 29.46%
19 2010-11-06 25.19 Tarxien Rainbows 2 1160 33.25% @ Floriana 0 1173 37.04% 29.71%
20 2010-10-31 24.80 @ Vittoriosa Stars 2 1110 34.03% Hibernians 0 1118 36.25% 29.72%
21 2011-01-14 24.57 Hibernians 4 1069 21.68% @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1179 49.75% 28.57%
22 2010-09-26 24.31 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1172 27.79% Hamrun Spartans 1 1227 42.78% 29.44%
23 2010-09-11 23.10 Hibernians 3 1107 30.37% @ Floriana 1 1142 40.02% 29.61%
24 2011-04-23 22.46 Tarxien Rainbows 4 1143 26.17% @ Marsaxlokk 2 1211 44.55% 29.28%
25 2011-01-30 21.97 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 1238 32.89% Floriana 1 1254 37.40% 29.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-05-07 61.2 @ Valletta 2 1523 72.73% Tarxien Rainbows 2 1164 7.23% 20.04%
2 2011-04-29 60.7 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 1165 47.96% Hamrun Spartans 3 1070 23.18% 28.86%
3 2010-10-15 59.5 @ Birkirkara 2 1342 25.50% Valletta 2 1416 45.30% 29.20%
4 2010-09-17 59.1 @ Hibernians 2 1130 10.12% Valletta 2 1411 66.68% 23.20%
5 2011-03-11 58.3 @ Hibernians 4 1097 21.72% Qormi 3 1207 49.70% 28.58%
6 2011-04-17 57.8 @ Birkirkara 2 1279 59.33% Hamrun Spartans 2 1080 14.50% 26.17%
7 2010-12-05 57.6 @ Birkirkara 2 1316 54.89% Sliema Wanderers 2 1160 17.63% 27.48%
8 2010-12-12 57.0 @ Qormi 2 1222 49.39% Vittoriosa Stars 2 1115 21.98% 28.63%
9 2011-02-13 57.0 @ Qormi 2 1240 46.35% Marsaxlokk 2 1157 24.58% 29.07%
10 2011-04-09 57.0 @ Qormi 2 1167 51.18% Vittoriosa Stars 2 1044 20.50% 28.31%
11 2011-04-25 57.0 @ Valletta 1 1532 64.43% Birkirkara 1 1277 11.36% 24.22%
12 2011-04-30 56.9 @ Floriana 1 1278 11.63% Valletta 1 1528 63.95% 24.42%
13 2011-02-04 56.8 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1158 46.61% Vittoriosa Stars 2 1073 24.35% 29.04%
14 2010-10-17 56.6 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1118 33.77% Hibernians 2 1128 36.51% 29.72%
15 2011-01-08 56.6 @ Hibernians 2 1068 30.25% Marsaxlokk 2 1104 40.14% 29.61%
16 2011-02-05 55.9 @ Valletta 1 1506 74.08% Hamrun Spartans 1 1128 6.66% 19.26%
17 2011-02-20 55.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1143 7.03% Valletta 1 1509 73.21% 19.76%
18 2011-02-27 55.7 @ Valletta 1 1503 67.60% Marsaxlokk 1 1211 9.65% 22.76%
19 2011-01-23 52.8 @ Floriana 4 1244 41.00% Qormi 3 1203 29.44% 29.56%
20 2010-11-04 52.6 @ Birkirkara 1 1300 55.84% Vittoriosa Stars 1 1135 16.93% 27.23%
21 2011-01-09 52.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1151 41.12% Vittoriosa Stars 3 1108 29.32% 29.55%
22 2010-10-29 52.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1198 22.32% Birkirkara 1 1302 48.98% 28.70%
23 2011-02-27 52.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1148 19.50% Birkirkara 1 1282 52.44% 28.06%
24 2011-01-09 51.9 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1 1250 41.79% Qormi 1 1203 28.70% 29.51%
25 2011-01-24 51.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1161 25.05% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1240 45.81% 29.14%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-04-08 23.8 @ Valletta 5 1519 77.61% Hamrun Spartans 0 1088 5.29% 17.10%
2 2010-12-13 26.6 @ Valletta 2 1459 74.04% Hibernians 0 1082 6.68% 19.28%
3 2010-09-12 27.6 @ Valletta 3 1397 62.94% Vittoriosa Stars 0 1159 12.22% 24.84%
4 2010-11-05 27.6 @ Valletta 4 1433 63.04% Sliema Wanderers 0 1194 12.16% 24.80%
5 2010-12-18 28.0 Valletta 4 1464 63.40% @ Qormi 0 1221 11.95% 24.65%
6 2011-03-13 28.0 @ Valletta 3 1504 66.83% Floriana 0 1221 10.04% 23.13%
7 2010-11-01 29.4 Valletta 2 1424 65.37% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1158 10.83% 23.80%
8 2011-04-16 29.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1276 62.22% Vittoriosa Stars 0 1046 12.65% 25.12%
9 2011-02-12 30.3 Valletta 2 1501 66.89% @ Floriana 0 1217 10.01% 23.10%
10 2011-01-29 30.6 Valletta 4 1498 70.97% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1163 8.01% 21.02%
11 2010-12-01 30.7 Valletta 2 1447 63.04% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1207 12.16% 24.80%
12 2011-04-23 31.0 Floriana 2 1265 57.70% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1082 15.60% 26.69%
13 2011-01-16 31.7 Valletta 2 1495 63.57% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1249 11.85% 24.58%
14 2011-02-13 32.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1171 44.48% Hibernians 0 1103 26.24% 29.28%
15 2011-04-10 32.5 @ Birkirkara 3 1251 44.95% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1179 25.81% 29.23%
16 2011-04-03 33.0 Valletta 1 1516 70.79% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1183 8.09% 21.11%
17 2011-01-22 33.1 @ Birkirkara 2 1280 51.42% Hamrun Spartans 0 1155 20.32% 28.27%
18 2011-01-16 34.0 Floriana 6 1212 50.20% @ Vittoriosa Stars 1 1098 21.31% 28.50%
19 2010-09-13 34.2 Birkirkara 4 1359 56.22% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1190 16.65% 27.13%
20 2010-11-20 34.2 @ Tarxien Rainbows 2 1185 47.07% Hibernians 0 1097 23.94% 28.98%
21 2011-04-17 34.2 Valletta 1 1528 69.23% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1215 8.83% 21.94%
22 2011-01-30 34.3 Birkirkara 1 1296 60.94% @ Vittoriosa Stars 0 1079 13.45% 25.61%
23 2011-04-30 34.3 @ Birkirkara 2 1281 47.49% Marsaxlokk 0 1189 23.59% 28.92%
24 2010-12-18 34.4 @ Birkirkara 3 1321 63.51% Hibernians 1 1077 11.88% 24.60%
25 2010-12-19 34.4 Floriana 3 1158 38.04% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1137 32.27% 29.69%