Home / Leagues / Malta / Maltese Premier League / 2009-10
‹ ›

2009-10 Maltese Premier League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Birkirkara

45 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Birkirkara

6.09 points above expected

45 points · 38.91 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hamrun Spartans

20.70 points below expected

24 points · 44.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valletta 18 12 4 2 40 45 15 +30 36.93 +3.07
2 Birkirkara 18 12 3 3 39 40 18 +22 33.15 +5.85
3 Qormi 18 11 2 5 35 37 22 +15 32.30 +2.70
4 Sliema Wanderers 18 9 2 7 29 29 21 +8 26.40 +2.60
5 Hibernians 18 7 6 5 27 31 28 +3 32.12 -5.12
6 Tarxien Rainbows 18 7 5 6 26 30 29 +1 25.20 +0.80
7 Floriana 18 6 5 7 23 23 35 -12 19.52 +3.48
8 Hamrun Spartans 18 6 3 9 21 24 31 -7 19.49 +1.51
9 Msida St. Joseph 18 3 2 13 11 12 34 -22 15.38 -4.38
10 Dingli Swallows 18 1 0 17 3 13 51 -38 15.68 -12.68
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Birkirkara 28 20 4 4 45 64 32 +32 38.91 +6.09
2 Valletta 28 20 4 4 44 71 25 +46 40.10 +3.90
3 Qormi 28 15 2 11 30 53 36 +17 29.80 +0.20
4 Sliema Wanderers 28 14 2 12 30 41 37 +4 27.02 +2.98
5 Tarxien Rainbows 28 10 6 12 23 41 50 -9 24.61 -1.61
6 Hibernians 28 8 6 14 17 40 51 -11 25.10 -8.10
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 24 10 6 8 25 35 41 -6 22.56 +2.44
2 Hamrun Spartans 24 10 4 10 24 41 39 +2 23.70 +0.30
3 Msida St. Joseph 24 4 4 16 11 24 51 -27 12.61 -1.61
4 Dingli Swallows 24 2 0 22 5 23 71 -48 6.35 -1.35

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Birkirkara 45 38.91 +6.09
2 Valletta 44 40.10 +3.90
3 Sliema Wanderers 30 27.02 +2.98
4 Qormi 30 29.80 +0.20
5 Tarxien Rainbows 23 24.61 -1.61

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 24 44.70 -20.70
2 Floriana 25 45.56 -20.56
3 Msida St. Joseph 11 23.61 -12.61
4 Hibernians 17 25.10 -8.10
5 Dingli Swallows 5 9.35 -4.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sliema Wanderers 3 Jan 24 – Feb 7 1 in 18
2 Qormi 3 Aug 30 – Oct 4 1 in 11
3 Valletta 5 Apr 10 – May 5 1 in 9
4 Tarxien Rainbows 2 Jan 17 – Jan 24 1 in 9
5 Floriana 3 Mar 14 – Apr 10 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dingli Swallows 17 Oct 25 – Mar 20 1 in 2,300
2 Hibernians 9 Mar 6 – May 4 1 in 98
3 Hamrun Spartans 4 Sep 26 – Oct 17 1 in 13
4 Tarxien Rainbows 3 Feb 27 – Mar 12 1 in 7
5 Qormi 3 Feb 13 – Mar 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tarxien Rainbows 5 Jan 17 – Feb 16 1 in 34
2 Msida St. Joseph 2 Oct 3 – Oct 17 1 in 12
3 Birkirkara 11 Feb 7 – Apr 30 1 in 9
4 Sliema Wanderers 4 Jan 24 – Feb 13 1 in 9
5 Hibernians 5 Dec 19 – Jan 18 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dingli Swallows 17 Oct 25 – Mar 20 1 in 59
2 Tarxien Rainbows 5 Oct 17 – Dec 11 1 in 17
3 Hibernians 9 Mar 6 – May 4 1 in 12
4 Qormi 3 Jan 8 – Jan 24 1 in 10
5 Valletta 2 Oct 23 – Nov 24 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valletta 1426 64 +102 15 10.6 +4.4
Birkirkara 1374 64 +19 12 10.8 +1.2
Qormi 1226 47 +21 6 7.6 -1.6
Sliema Wanderers 1065 44 -11 6 5.8 +0.2
Floriana 991 36 +76 13 9.9 +3.1
Tarxien Rainbows 1034 36 -15 6 4.5 +1.5
Hamrun Spartans 1045 34 +6 10 11.6 -1.6
Hibernians 902 30 -116 0 3.5 -3.5
Msida St. Joseph 714 16 -84 2 4.3 -2.3
Dingli Swallows 670 6 +2 3 2.6 +0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR DS FLO HS HIB MSJ QOR SW TR VAL
Birkirkara —
2-0-0
4.28
1-0-1
4.59
2-0-0
4.15
2-2-0
8.09
2-0-0
4.90
4-0-0
7.40
3-0-1
7.95
3-1-0
8.25
1-1-2
5.27
Dingli Swallows
0-0-2
1.43
 —
1-0-3
3.41
0-0-4
3.47
0-0-2
1.36
1-0-3
4.50
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
2.65
0-0-2
0.52
Floriana
1-0-1
1.12
3-0-1
7.99
 —
2-1-1
4.51
1-1-0
1.44
3-1-0
8.03
0-1-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-2
1.26
Hamrun Spartans
0-0-2
1.55
4-0-0
7.93
1-1-2
6.88
 —
0-1-1
1.52
3-1-0
8.21
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
1.98
1-1-0
2.08
0-0-2
1.15
Hibernians
0-2-2
3.31
2-0-0
4.35
0-1-1
4.26
1-1-0
4.18
 —
2-0-0
4.59
1-1-2
4.92
0-1-3
5.26
1-0-3
6.27
1-0-3
2.96
Msida St. Joseph
0-0-2
0.82
3-0-1
6.89
0-1-3
3.37
0-1-3
3.20
0-0-2
1.12
 —
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
1.75
0-1-1
1.69
0-1-1
0.77
Qormi
0-0-4
4.00
2-0-0
4.94
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
3.65
2-1-1
6.48
2-0-0
4.21
 —
4-0-0
6.01
2-0-2
7.65
0-0-4
3.94
Sliema Wanderers
1-0-3
3.45
2-0-0
4.00
1-1-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.72
3-1-0
6.13
1-0-1
3.95
0-0-4
5.38
 —
3-0-1
6.32
2-0-2
2.44
Tarxien Rainbows
0-1-3
3.16
2-0-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.45
0-1-1
3.62
3-0-1
5.12
1-1-0
4.01
2-0-2
3.75
1-0-3
5.07
 —
0-2-2
2.62
Valletta
2-1-1
6.12
2-0-0
5.21
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.55
3-0-1
8.45
1-1-0
4.94
4-0-0
7.46
2-0-2
8.97
2-2-0
8.78
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +7.8
Allowed 0.85 -9.1
Differential 0.95 +4.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.76%7.20%6.44%5.30%1.52%1.52%22.73%
17.20%6.06%9.09%3.79%1.52%0.38%28.03%
26.44%9.09%6.82%1.52%2.27%1.52%27.65%
35.30%3.79%1.52%0.76%—0.38%11.74%
41.52%1.52%2.27%——0.38%5.68%
5+1.52%0.38%1.52%0.38%0.38%—4.17%
Total22.73%28.03%27.65%11.74%5.68%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.15
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
217.86%17.86%7.14%—3.57%—46.43%
37.14%7.14%—3.57%——17.86%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%—3.57%—10.71%
Total32.14%42.86%10.71%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.14 +1.14
SD 1.30 1.18 1.51
CV 0.57 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%8.33%4.17%8.33%33.33%
1——25.00%12.50%12.50%—50.00%
2—4.17%—4.17%4.17%—12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+——4.17%———4.17%
Total—4.17%41.67%25.00%20.83%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 2.96 -2.00
SD 1.08 1.27 1.89
CV 1.13 0.43 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.17%4.17%4.17%12.50%
112.50%25.00%16.67%———54.17%
24.17%8.33%———4.17%16.67%
34.17%—4.17%———8.33%
4——8.33%———8.33%
5+———————
Total20.83%33.33%29.17%4.17%4.17%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.71 -0.25
SD 1.10 1.65 2.15
CV 0.76 0.97 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%8.33%—4.17%4.17%25.00%
18.33%4.17%8.33%———20.83%
24.17%8.33%12.50%4.17%4.17%—33.33%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
4———————
5+4.17%——4.17%——8.33%
Total25.00%25.00%29.17%8.33%8.33%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.62 +0.08
SD 1.55 1.41 2.36
CV 0.90 0.87 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%7.14%——21.43%
110.71%3.57%10.71%7.14%——32.14%
2—10.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
33.57%—————3.57%
4——3.57%——3.57%7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%25.00%35.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.82 -0.39
SD 1.10 1.22 1.45
CV 0.77 0.67 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%8.33%12.50%——37.50%
14.17%8.33%12.50%4.17%4.17%—33.33%
2—8.33%4.17%—4.17%4.17%20.83%
3——4.17%——4.17%8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total8.33%29.17%29.17%16.67%8.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.12 -1.12
SD 0.98 1.39 1.39
CV 0.98 0.66 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%3.57%——25.00%
13.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
27.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%28.57%
314.29%3.57%————17.86%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total32.14%28.57%25.00%10.71%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.29 +0.61
SD 1.55 1.24 2.28
CV 0.82 0.97 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%14.29%3.57%—32.14%
17.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
214.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%28.57%17.86%17.86%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.32 +0.14
SD 1.37 1.22 2.27
CV 0.94 0.92 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%3.57%——25.00%
17.14%7.14%7.14%——3.57%25.00%
27.14%7.14%10.71%—3.57%3.57%32.14%
3—7.14%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%32.14%35.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.79 -0.32
SD 1.14 1.42 1.85
CV 0.78 0.80 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%————10.71%
110.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
47.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
5+7.14%—3.57%———10.71%
Total42.86%28.57%25.00%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.54 0.89 +1.64
SD 1.75 0.92 2.00
CV 0.69 1.03 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valletta 1426 44 36.93 +7.07 74.0% 25 29 33 37 41 45 50
Birkirkara 1374 45 33.15 +11.85 88.0% 20 23 30 33 37 41 45
Qormi 1226 30 32.30 -2.30 70.0% 20 22 29 32 37 40 41
Sliema Wanderers 1065 30 26.40 +3.60 70.0% 13 16 22 26 30 36 40
Hamrun Spartans 1045 24 19.49 +4.51 67.0% 9 13 16 19 23 27 38
Tarxien Rainbows 1034 23 25.20 -2.20 60.0% 13 16 21 25 29 32 39
Floriana 991 25 19.52 +5.48 72.0% 1 11 16 20 24 27 29
Hibernians 902 17 32.12 -15.12 21.0% 18 23 28 33 36 40 46
Msida St. Joseph 714 11 15.38 -4.38 25.0% 3 6 11 15 19 25 30
Dingli Swallows 670 5 15.68 -10.68 0.0% 5 8 14 16 18 23 25

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.79%
Clear Edge
44.70%14.39%40.91%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 13.17 Elo pts.
181 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
Birkirkara, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.16 * Some Luck: 4.16 to 6.24 * Lucky: 6.24 to 8.32 * Wild Swing: 8.32 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.54 * Off: 1.54 to 2.05 * Way Off: 2.05 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.28 points
Some Luck
05.2013
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.283
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
88.00%
Birkirkara
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Dingli Swallows
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 200.07
1.79
Moderate Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
72%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Slight Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.38
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.14
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.076
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678910
Birkirkara20.00%24.00%23.00%17.00%7.00%7.00%—2.00%——
Valletta48.00%26.00%14.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%————
Qormi14.00%26.00%21.00%21.00%9.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%——
Sliema Wanderers5.00%5.00%7.00%15.00%19.00%27.00%12.00%8.00%2.00%—
Tarxien Rainbows3.00%1.00%5.00%10.00%34.00%18.00%14.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%
Hibernians10.00%17.00%28.00%24.00%9.00%9.00%1.00%2.00%——
Floriana———3.00%9.00%15.00%24.00%17.00%22.00%10.00%
Hamrun Spartans—1.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%13.00%27.00%22.00%22.00%7.00%
Msida St. Joseph——1.00%1.00%4.00%1.00%10.00%15.00%25.00%43.00%
Dingli Swallows—————2.00%11.00%24.00%24.00%39.00%
Team12345678910
Birkirkara38.20%38.30%13.21%6.29%3.01%0.99%————
Valletta52.34%30.40%10.39%4.26%1.89%0.72%————
Qormi4.86%13.79%28.15%23.75%18.52%10.93%————
Sliema Wanderers2.32%8.34%20.40%24.56%23.38%21.00%————
Tarxien Rainbows0.97%4.12%13.21%19.81%27.00%34.89%————
Hibernians1.31%5.05%14.64%21.33%26.20%31.47%————
Floriana——————42.73%50.89%6.09%0.29%
Hamrun Spartans——————55.61%39.97%4.27%0.15%
Msida St. Joseph——————1.60%8.48%73.91%16.01%
Dingli Swallows——————0.06%0.66%15.73%83.55%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Qormi 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Tarxien Rainbows 99.00% 1.00%
Sliema Wanderers 97.00% 3.00%
Hamrun Spartans 84.00% 16.00%
Floriana 77.00% 23.00%
Msida St. Joseph 31.00% 69.00%
Dingli Swallows 12.00% 88.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Qormi 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Tarxien Rainbows 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 95.58% 4.42%
Floriana 93.62% 6.38%
Msida St. Joseph 10.08% 89.92%
Dingli Swallows 0.72% 99.28%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-08-21 Valletta L 1-339.7 1041 1136 31.27% 15.22% 53.50%-0.45 -32.9 0
2009-08-21 @ Birkirkara W 3-139.7 1136 1041 53.50% 15.22% 31.27%+0.45 +32.9 3
2009-08-22 Tarxien Rainbows L 1-445.2 1116 1010 58.12% 15.18% 26.70%+0.66 -80.4 0
2009-08-22 @ Dingli Swallows W 4-145.2 1010 1116 26.70% 15.18% 58.12%-0.66 +80.4 3
2009-08-23 Qormi D 1-155.3 976 1048 34.08% 15.24% 50.67%-0.33 +2.3 1
2009-08-23 @ Floriana D 1-155.3 1048 976 50.67% 15.24% 34.08%+0.33 -2.3 1
2009-08-29 Floriana W 6-028.2 1168 978 66.78% 15.00% 18.21%+1.13 +64.7 6
2009-08-29 @ Valletta L 0-628.2 978 1168 18.21% 15.00% 66.78%-1.13 -64.7 1
2009-08-30 Birkirkara L 0-240.8 1090 1008 55.24% 15.21% 29.55%+0.53 -62.5 3
2009-08-30 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-040.8 1008 1090 29.55% 15.21% 55.24%-0.53 +62.5 3
2009-08-30 Sliema Wanderers W 1-038.8 1046 1028 46.84% 15.26% 37.90%+0.17 +23.8 4
2009-08-30 @ Qormi L 0-138.8 1028 1046 37.90% 15.26% 46.84%-0.17 -23.8 0
2009-09-25 Valletta L 0-132.5 1004 1233 17.18% 14.97% 67.85%-1.20 -11.7 0
2009-09-25 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-032.5 1233 1004 67.85% 14.97% 17.18%+1.20 +11.7 9
2009-09-26 Hamrun Spartans W 2-141.3 1071 979 56.34% 15.20% 28.47%+0.58 +17.5 6
2009-09-26 @ Birkirkara L 1-241.3 979 1071 28.47% 15.20% 56.34%-0.58 -17.5 0
2009-09-26 Qormi L 0-331.3 971 1070 30.74% 15.22% 54.04%-0.48 -54.3 0
2009-09-26 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-031.3 1070 971 54.04% 15.22% 30.74%+0.48 +54.3 7
2009-09-27 Dingli Swallows W 2-140.8 1143 1036 58.28% 15.17% 26.55%+0.67 +16.4 3
2009-09-27 @ Hibernians L 1-240.8 1036 1143 26.55% 15.17% 58.28%-0.67 -16.4 0
2009-09-27 Tarxien Rainbows D 1-155.4 913 1028 28.82% 15.20% 55.98%-0.56 +3.8 2
2009-09-27 @ Floriana D 1-155.4 1028 913 55.98% 15.20% 28.82%+0.56 -3.8 4
2009-09-30 Hamrun Spartans W 4-240.0 1160 962 67.42% 14.98% 17.60%+1.17 +17.5 6
2009-09-30 @ Hibernians L 2-440.0 962 1160 17.60% 14.98% 67.42%-1.17 -17.5 0
2009-09-30 Msida St. Joseph W 2-033.4 992 917 54.41% 15.22% 30.37%+0.49 +37.0 3
2009-09-30 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-233.4 917 992 30.37% 15.22% 54.41%-0.49 -37.0 0
2009-10-02 Birkirkara L 1-340.7 1019 1088 34.64% 15.25% 50.11%-0.31 -35.9 0
2009-10-02 @ Dingli Swallows W 3-140.7 1088 1019 50.11% 15.25% 34.64%+0.31 +35.9 9
2009-10-03 Msida St. Joseph D 0-051.5 1245 880 78.07% 14.38% 7.55%+2.10 -12.0 10
2009-10-03 @ Valletta D 0-051.5 880 1245 7.55% 14.38% 78.07%-2.10 +12.0 1
2009-10-03 Sliema Wanderers W 3-142.7 1024 1029 43.49% 15.27% 41.25%+0.04 +41.7 7
2009-10-03 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-342.7 1029 1024 41.25% 15.27% 43.49%-0.04 -41.7 3
2009-10-04 Floriana L 0-141.8 944 917 48.09% 15.26% 36.65%+0.23 -29.2 0
2009-10-04 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-041.8 917 944 36.65% 15.26% 48.09%-0.23 +29.2 5
2009-10-04 Hibernians W 3-144.8 1124 1177 36.76% 15.26% 47.99%-0.22 +47.6 10
2009-10-04 @ Qormi L 1-344.8 1177 1124 47.99% 15.26% 36.76%+0.22 -47.6 6
2009-10-17 Hamrun Spartans W 5-031.2 987 915 54.00% 15.22% 30.78%+0.47 +87.5 6
2009-10-17 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-531.2 915 987 30.78% 15.22% 54.00%-0.47 -87.5 0
2009-10-17 Tarxien Rainbows D 1-155.4 892 1066 22.25% 15.10% 62.65%-0.89 +5.8 2
2009-10-17 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-155.4 1066 892 62.65% 15.10% 22.25%+0.89 -5.8 8
2009-10-18 Birkirkara D 2-261.4 1130 1124 45.06% 15.27% 39.67%+0.10 -0.6 7
2009-10-18 @ Hibernians D 2-261.4 1124 1130 39.67% 15.27% 45.06%-0.10 +0.5 10
2009-10-18 Dingli Swallows L 1-244.5 946 983 38.94% 15.26% 45.79%-0.13 -23.0 5
2009-10-18 @ Floriana W 2-144.5 983 946 45.79% 15.26% 38.94%+0.13 +23.0 3
2009-10-19 Valletta L 0-235.2 1172 1233 35.67% 15.25% 49.08%-0.27 -42.5 10
2009-10-19 @ Qormi W 2-035.2 1233 1172 49.08% 15.25% 35.67%+0.27 +42.6 13
2009-10-23 Hibernians L 0-146.3 1275 1129 62.52% 15.10% 22.38%+0.88 -37.4 13
2009-10-23 @ Valletta W 1-046.3 1129 1275 22.38% 15.10% 62.52%-0.88 +37.4 10
2009-10-24 Floriana L 0-147.7 1124 923 67.72% 14.97% 17.31%+1.19 -40.5 10
2009-10-24 @ Birkirkara W 1-047.7 923 1124 17.31% 14.97% 67.72%-1.19 +40.5 8
2009-10-24 Msida St. Joseph W 1-042.5 828 898 34.49% 15.25% 50.26%-0.31 +30.4 3
2009-10-24 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-142.5 898 828 50.26% 15.25% 34.49%+0.31 -30.4 2
2009-10-25 Qormi L 1-243.2 1060 1129 34.54% 15.25% 50.21%-0.31 -20.7 8
2009-10-25 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-143.2 1129 1060 50.21% 15.25% 34.54%+0.31 +20.7 13
2009-10-25 Sliema Wanderers L 0-234.7 1006 1075 34.65% 15.25% 50.10%-0.31 -41.5 3
2009-10-25 @ Dingli Swallows W 2-034.7 1075 1006 50.10% 15.25% 34.65%+0.31 +41.5 9
2009-11-04 Dingli Swallows W 3-038.6 858 965 29.77% 15.21% 55.02%-0.52 +90.4 6
2009-11-04 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-338.6 965 858 55.02% 15.21% 29.77%+0.52 -90.4 3
2009-11-04 Hibernians L 0-130.9 867 1166 12.16% 14.75% 73.09%-1.58 -8.5 2
2009-11-04 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-030.9 1166 867 73.09% 14.75% 12.16%+1.58 +8.5 13
2009-11-21 Dingli Swallows W 2-145.6 859 874 42.01% 15.27% 42.72%-0.01 +24.8 5
2009-11-21 @ Msida St. Joseph L 1-245.6 874 859 42.72% 15.27% 42.01%+0.01 -24.8 3
2009-11-21 Floriana L 2-359.0 1175 964 68.55% 14.95% 16.50%+1.24 -36.7 13
2009-11-21 @ Hibernians W 3-259.0 964 1175 16.50% 14.95% 68.55%-1.24 +36.7 11
2009-11-22 Hamrun Spartans W 2-029.4 1150 949 67.72% 14.97% 17.30%+1.19 +22.2 16
2009-11-22 @ Qormi L 0-229.4 949 1150 17.30% 14.97% 67.72%-1.19 -22.2 6
2009-11-23 Birkirkara L 0-336.8 1116 1084 48.78% 15.25% 35.97%+0.25 -81.0 9
2009-11-23 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-036.8 1084 1116 35.97% 15.25% 48.78%-0.25 +81.0 13
2009-11-24 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-261.5 1238 1039 67.51% 14.98% 17.51%+1.17 -5.5 14
2009-11-24 @ Valletta D 2-261.5 1039 1238 17.51% 14.98% 67.51%-1.17 +5.5 9
2009-11-27 Qormi L 1-430.9 850 1172 10.80% 14.67% 74.54%-1.71 -17.4 3
2009-11-27 @ Dingli Swallows W 4-130.9 1172 850 74.54% 14.67% 10.80%+1.71 +17.4 19
2009-11-28 Hibernians L 1-242.2 1045 1138 31.40% 15.23% 53.38%-0.45 -19.0 9
2009-11-28 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-142.2 1138 1045 53.38% 15.23% 31.40%+0.45 +19.0 16
2009-11-28 Valletta L 2-341.9 926 1233 11.74% 14.73% 73.54%-1.62 -7.3 6
2009-11-28 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-241.9 1233 926 73.54% 14.73% 11.74%+1.62 +7.3 17
2009-11-29 Msida St. Joseph W 4-131.1 1165 884 73.63% 14.72% 11.65%+1.63 +18.7 16
2009-11-29 @ Birkirkara L 1-431.1 884 1165 11.65% 14.72% 73.63%-1.63 -18.7 5
2009-11-29 Sliema Wanderers D 1-155.3 1000 1036 39.24% 15.26% 45.49%-0.12 +0.9 12
2009-11-29 @ Floriana D 1-155.3 1036 1000 45.49% 15.26% 39.24%+0.12 -0.8 10
2009-12-11 Hamrun Spartans L 0-144.8 1026 919 58.15% 15.18% 26.67%+0.66 -34.8 9
2009-12-11 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 1-044.8 919 1026 26.67% 15.18% 58.15%-0.66 +34.8 9
2009-12-12 Birkirkara L 2-544.6 1190 1184 45.08% 15.27% 39.65%+0.11 -55.2 19
2009-12-12 @ Qormi W 5-244.6 1184 1190 39.65% 15.27% 45.08%-0.11 +55.2 19
2009-12-12 Sliema Wanderers L 0-145.4 1157 1035 59.98% 15.15% 24.87%+0.75 -35.9 16
2009-12-12 @ Hibernians W 1-045.4 1035 1157 24.87% 15.15% 59.98%-0.75 +35.9 13
2009-12-13 Dingli Swallows W 4-129.3 1240 832 79.80% 14.18% 6.02%+2.33 +9.8 20
2009-12-13 @ Valletta L 1-429.3 832 1240 6.02% 14.18% 79.80%-2.33 -9.8 3
2009-12-13 Floriana L 1-240.6 865 1001 26.27% 15.17% 58.56%-0.68 -16.2 5
2009-12-13 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-140.6 1001 865 58.56% 15.17% 26.27%+0.68 +16.3 15
2009-12-18 Floriana W 6-235.7 1134 1018 59.34% 15.16% 25.50%+0.72 +42.5 22
2009-12-18 @ Qormi L 2-635.7 1018 1134 25.50% 15.16% 59.34%-0.72 -42.5 15
2009-12-19 Birkirkara D 1-155.8 1250 1239 45.78% 15.26% 38.95%+0.13 -0.9 21
2009-12-19 @ Valletta D 1-155.8 1239 1250 38.95% 15.26% 45.78%-0.13 +0.9 20
2009-12-19 Hibernians D 2-261.4 954 1121 22.89% 15.11% 61.99%-0.86 +4.2 10
2009-12-19 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-261.4 1121 954 61.99% 15.11% 22.89%+0.86 -4.2 17
2009-12-20 Dingli Swallows W 2-138.8 991 822 64.72% 15.06% 20.22%+1.01 +12.8 12
2009-12-20 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-238.8 822 991 20.22% 15.06% 64.72%-1.01 -12.8 3
2009-12-22 Sliema Wanderers W 1-047.5 849 1071 17.79% 14.99% 67.22%-1.16 +40.2 8
2009-12-22 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-147.5 1071 849 67.22% 14.99% 17.79%+1.16 -40.2 13
2009-12-26 Qormi L 1-240.4 1030 1177 25.14% 15.15% 59.71%-0.74 -15.6 13
2009-12-26 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-140.4 1177 1030 59.71% 15.15% 25.14%+0.74 +15.6 25
2009-12-26 Valletta L 0-425.6 975 1249 13.82% 14.84% 71.35%-1.44 -34.1 15
2009-12-26 @ Floriana W 4-025.6 1249 975 71.35% 14.84% 13.82%+1.44 +34.1 24
2009-12-27 Msida St. Joseph W 3-026.6 1117 889 69.93% 14.90% 15.18%+1.34 +28.5 20
2009-12-27 @ Hibernians L 0-326.6 889 1117 15.18% 14.90% 69.93%-1.34 -28.5 8
2009-12-27 Tarxien Rainbows W 5-130.4 1240 1004 70.52% 14.87% 14.60%+1.38 +30.0 23
2009-12-27 @ Birkirkara L 1-530.4 1004 1240 14.60% 14.87% 70.52%-1.38 -30.0 12
2009-12-28 Hamrun Spartans L 1-337.7 809 958 24.92% 15.15% 59.93%-0.75 -26.9 3
2009-12-28 @ Dingli Swallows W 3-137.7 958 809 59.93% 15.15% 24.92%+0.75 +26.9 13
2010-01-02 Hibernians L 1-235.2 783 1146 8.76% 14.50% 76.74%-1.94 -5.8 3
2010-01-02 @ Dingli Swallows W 2-135.2 1146 783 76.74% 14.50% 8.76%+1.94 +5.8 23
2010-01-02 Msida St. Joseph W 3-024.6 1192 860 76.51% 14.52% 8.97%+1.91 +17.2 28
2010-01-02 @ Qormi L 0-324.6 860 1192 8.97% 14.52% 76.51%-1.91 -17.2 8
2010-01-03 Birkirkara L 0-228.1 985 1270 13.07% 14.80% 72.13%-1.51 -17.1 13
2010-01-03 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-028.1 1270 985 72.13% 14.80% 13.07%+1.51 +17.1 26
2010-01-03 Sliema Wanderers L 1-352.1 1283 1015 72.78% 14.77% 12.45%+1.56 -71.3 24
2010-01-03 @ Valletta W 3-152.1 1015 1283 12.45% 14.77% 72.78%-1.56 +71.3 16
2010-01-04 Floriana W 2-143.6 974 941 48.80% 15.25% 35.94%+0.25 +21.4 15
2010-01-04 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-243.6 941 974 35.94% 15.25% 48.80%-0.25 -21.4 15
2010-01-08 Qormi D 2-261.5 1152 1210 36.06% 15.25% 48.69%-0.25 +1.3 24
2010-01-08 @ Hibernians D 2-261.5 1210 1152 48.69% 15.25% 36.06%+0.25 -1.3 29
2010-01-09 Dingli Swallows W 2-024.8 1287 777 82.90% 13.63% 3.47%+2.90 +4.6 29
2010-01-09 @ Birkirkara L 0-224.8 777 1287 3.47% 13.63% 82.90%-2.90 -4.6 3
2010-01-09 Valletta L 0-129.7 843 1212 8.51% 14.48% 77.01%-1.97 -6.0 8
2010-01-09 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-029.7 1212 843 77.01% 14.48% 8.51%+1.97 +6.0 27
2010-01-10 Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.3 919 968 37.40% 15.26% 47.34%-0.19 +1.4 16
2010-01-10 @ Floriana D 1-155.3 968 919 47.34% 15.26% 37.40%+0.19 -1.4 14
2010-01-10 Tarxien Rainbows W 4-243.3 1086 995 56.32% 15.20% 28.49%+0.58 +27.1 19
2010-01-10 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-443.3 995 1086 28.49% 15.20% 56.32%-0.58 -27.1 15
2010-01-15 Sliema Wanderers W 3-040.0 966 1113 25.13% 15.15% 59.72%-0.74 +97.8 17
2010-01-15 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-340.0 1113 966 59.72% 15.15% 25.13%+0.74 -97.8 19
2010-01-16 Qormi W 1-039.4 1218 1208 45.54% 15.26% 39.19%+0.12 +24.5 30
2010-01-16 @ Valletta L 0-139.4 1208 1218 39.19% 15.26% 45.54%-0.12 -24.5 29
2010-01-17 Floriana L 0-231.7 772 921 24.91% 15.15% 59.94%-0.75 -31.0 3
2010-01-17 @ Dingli Swallows W 2-031.7 921 772 59.94% 15.15% 24.91%+0.75 +31.0 19
2010-01-17 Msida St. Joseph W 3-137.4 968 837 60.89% 15.13% 23.98%+0.80 +26.0 18
2010-01-17 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-337.4 837 968 23.98% 15.13% 60.89%-0.80 -25.9 8
2010-01-18 Hibernians D 2-261.7 1291 1153 61.71% 15.12% 23.17%+0.84 -4.1 30
2010-01-18 @ Birkirkara D 2-261.7 1153 1291 23.17% 15.12% 61.71%-0.84 +4.1 25
2010-01-22 Hamrun Spartans L 0-228.7 811 1064 15.29% 14.90% 69.81%-1.33 -19.8 8
2010-01-22 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-028.7 1064 811 69.81% 14.90% 15.29%+1.33 +19.8 20
2010-01-23 Valletta L 2-444.8 1157 1242 32.50% 15.23% 52.27%-0.40 -30.4 25
2010-01-23 @ Hibernians W 4-244.8 1242 1157 52.27% 15.23% 32.50%+0.40 +30.4 33
2010-01-24 Dingli Swallows W 3-133.7 1015 741 73.16% 14.75% 12.09%+1.59 +13.7 22
2010-01-24 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-333.7 741 1015 12.09% 14.75% 73.16%-1.59 -13.7 3
2010-01-24 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-244.2 1184 994 66.74% 15.00% 18.26%+1.13 -75.3 29
2010-01-24 @ Qormi W 2-044.2 994 1184 18.26% 15.00% 66.74%-1.13 +75.2 21
2010-01-25 Birkirkara L 1-235.7 952 1287 10.11% 14.62% 75.28%-1.79 -6.7 19
2010-01-25 @ Floriana W 2-135.7 1287 952 75.28% 14.62% 10.11%+1.79 +6.7 33
2010-01-30 Hibernians D 1-155.4 945 1127 21.50% 15.09% 63.42%-0.93 +6.1 20
2010-01-30 @ Floriana D 1-155.4 1127 945 63.42% 15.09% 21.50%+0.93 -6.1 26
2010-01-30 Sliema Wanderers L 0-149.2 1294 1029 72.57% 14.78% 12.65%+1.54 -43.5 33
2010-01-30 @ Birkirkara W 1-049.2 1029 1294 12.65% 14.78% 72.57%-1.54 +43.5 25
2010-01-31 Msida St. Joseph L 1-243.4 727 791 35.30% 15.25% 49.45%-0.28 -21.1 3
2010-01-31 @ Dingli Swallows W 2-143.4 791 727 49.45% 15.25% 35.30%+0.28 +21.1 11
2010-01-31 Valletta D 2-261.6 1069 1272 19.42% 15.04% 65.54%-1.05 +5.0 22
2010-01-31 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 2-261.6 1272 1069 65.54% 15.04% 19.42%+1.05 -5.0 34
2010-02-01 Qormi L 1-245.1 1084 1109 40.73% 15.27% 44.01%-0.06 -23.8 20
2010-02-01 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-145.1 1109 1084 44.01% 15.27% 40.73%+0.06 +23.8 32
2010-02-05 Dingli Swallows W 4-022.8 1133 706 80.46% 14.08% 5.46%+2.43 +13.8 35
2010-02-05 @ Qormi L 0-422.8 706 1133 5.46% 14.08% 80.46%-2.43 -13.8 3
2010-02-06 Hamrun Spartans W 4-026.6 1267 1060 68.22% 14.96% 16.83%+1.22 +41.1 37
2010-02-06 @ Valletta L 0-426.6 1060 1267 16.83% 14.96% 68.22%-1.22 -41.1 20
2010-02-06 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-142.7 1121 1074 50.65% 15.24% 34.11%+0.33 -30.6 26
2010-02-06 @ Hibernians W 1-042.7 1074 1121 34.11% 15.24% 50.65%-0.33 +30.6 25
2010-02-07 Birkirkara L 1-234.2 812 1250 5.90% 14.16% 79.95%-2.35 -3.9 11
2010-02-07 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-134.2 1250 812 79.95% 14.16% 5.90%+2.35 +3.9 36
2010-02-07 Floriana W 3-029.6 1072 951 59.83% 15.15% 25.02%+0.74 +45.2 28
2010-02-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-329.6 951 1072 25.02% 15.15% 59.83%-0.74 -45.2 20
2010-02-13 Hibernians D 2-261.4 1118 1090 48.13% 15.26% 36.61%+0.23 -1.2 29
2010-02-13 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-261.4 1090 1118 36.61% 15.26% 48.13%-0.23 +1.2 27
2010-02-13 Qormi W 2-032.4 1254 1146 58.32% 15.17% 26.50%+0.67 +32.8 39
2010-02-13 @ Birkirkara L 0-232.4 1146 1254 26.50% 15.17% 58.32%-0.67 -32.8 35
2010-02-15 Valletta L 0-622.8 693 1309 2.25% 13.14% 84.61%-3.34 -8.3 3
2010-02-15 @ Dingli Swallows W 6-022.8 1309 693 84.61% 13.14% 2.25%+3.34 +8.3 40
2010-02-16 Msida St. Joseph W 4-243.1 906 808 57.10% 15.19% 27.71%+0.61 +26.4 23
2010-02-16 @ Floriana L 2-443.1 808 906 27.71% 15.19% 57.10%-0.61 -26.4 11
2010-02-16 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-261.4 1019 1105 32.44% 15.23% 52.33%-0.40 +2.1 21
2010-02-16 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-261.4 1105 1019 52.33% 15.23% 32.44%+0.40 -2.1 26

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-02-26 Qormi W 1-040.6 1091 1114 41.03% 15.27% 43.70%-0.05 +26.9 3
2010-02-26 @ Hibernians L 0-140.6 1114 1091 43.70% 15.27% 41.03%+0.05 -26.8 0
2010-02-26 Sliema Wanderers W 2-139.0 1287 1116 64.94% 15.05% 20.01%+1.02 +12.7 3
2010-02-26 @ Birkirkara L 1-239.0 1116 1287 20.01% 15.05% 64.94%-1.02 -12.7 0
2010-02-27 Dingli Swallows W 3-246.7 782 684 57.12% 15.19% 27.69%+0.61 +16.2 3
2010-02-27 @ Msida St. Joseph L 2-346.7 684 782 27.69% 15.19% 57.12%-0.61 -16.2 0
2010-02-27 Valletta L 2-633.8 1103 1317 18.46% 15.01% 66.53%-1.11 -31.7 0
2010-02-27 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 6-233.8 1317 1103 66.53% 15.01% 18.46%+1.11 +31.7 3
2010-03-06 Birkirkara L 0-229.9 1087 1300 18.55% 15.01% 66.44%-1.11 -23.7 0
2010-03-06 @ Qormi W 2-029.9 1300 1087 66.44% 15.01% 18.55%+1.11 +23.7 6
2010-03-06 Hibernians W 2-137.5 1348 1118 70.09% 14.89% 15.02%+1.35 +9.7 6
2010-03-06 @ Valletta L 1-237.5 1118 1348 15.02% 14.89% 70.09%-1.35 -9.7 3
2010-03-07 Floriana W 2-141.4 1021 932 56.05% 15.20% 28.75%+0.56 +17.6 3
2010-03-07 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-241.4 932 1021 28.75% 15.20% 56.05%-0.56 -17.6 0
2010-03-07 Sliema Wanderers L 0-236.2 1071 1104 39.57% 15.27% 45.16%-0.11 -46.5 0
2010-03-07 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-036.2 1104 1071 45.16% 15.27% 39.57%+0.11 +46.5 3
2010-03-12 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-034.8 1063 1024 49.60% 15.25% 35.15%+0.29 +42.0 3
2010-03-12 @ Qormi L 0-234.8 1024 1063 35.15% 15.25% 49.60%-0.29 -42.0 0
2010-03-13 Hibernians W 2-137.8 1324 1108 68.89% 14.93% 16.18%+1.27 +10.4 9
2010-03-13 @ Birkirkara L 1-237.8 1108 1324 16.18% 14.93% 68.89%-1.27 -10.4 3
2010-03-13 Valletta W 2-153.0 1150 1358 19.02% 15.03% 65.96%-1.08 +37.2 6
2010-03-13 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-253.0 1358 1150 65.96% 15.03% 19.02%+1.08 -37.2 6
2010-03-14 Hamrun Spartans L 0-625.1 668 1039 8.42% 14.47% 77.11%-1.98 -31.0 0
2010-03-14 @ Dingli Swallows W 6-025.1 1039 668 77.11% 14.47% 8.42%+1.98 +31.0 6
2010-03-14 Msida St. Joseph W 2-140.4 915 798 59.31% 15.16% 25.53%+0.72 +15.8 3
2010-03-14 @ Floriana L 1-240.4 798 915 25.53% 15.16% 59.31%-0.72 -15.9 3
2010-03-19 Qormi W 3-027.1 1321 1105 68.94% 14.93% 16.13%+1.27 +30.2 9
2010-03-19 @ Valletta L 0-327.1 1105 1321 16.13% 14.93% 68.94%-1.27 -30.2 3
2010-03-19 Sliema Wanderers L 1-242.4 1098 1188 31.90% 15.23% 52.87%-0.42 -19.3 3
2010-03-19 @ Hibernians W 2-142.4 1188 1098 52.87% 15.23% 31.90%+0.42 +19.3 9
2010-03-20 Birkirkara D 3-366.2 982 1334 9.30% 14.55% 76.15%-1.87 +6.3 1
2010-03-20 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 3-366.2 1334 982 76.15% 14.55% 9.30%+1.87 -6.3 10
2010-03-20 Floriana L 0-325.7 637 931 12.51% 14.77% 72.72%-1.55 -23.8 0
2010-03-20 @ Dingli Swallows W 3-025.7 931 637 72.72% 14.77% 12.51%+1.55 +23.8 6
2010-03-27 Hamrun Spartans L 3-540.5 782 1070 12.90% 14.79% 72.31%-1.52 -12.3 3
2010-03-27 @ Msida St. Joseph W 5-340.5 1070 782 72.31% 14.79% 12.90%+1.52 +12.3 9
2010-03-27 Qormi L 0-439.9 1207 1075 61.00% 15.13% 23.86%+0.80 -130.5 9
2010-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-039.9 1075 1207 23.86% 15.13% 61.00%-0.80 +130.5 6
2010-03-28 Hibernians W 2-040.1 989 1078 31.90% 15.23% 52.87%-0.42 +60.0 4
2010-03-28 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 0-240.1 1078 989 52.87% 15.23% 31.90%+0.42 -60.0 3
2010-03-28 Valletta W 1-042.2 1328 1351 40.89% 15.27% 43.85%-0.06 +26.9 13
2010-03-28 @ Birkirkara L 0-142.2 1351 1328 43.85% 15.27% 40.89%+0.06 -26.9 9
2010-04-09 Birkirkara L 0-326.3 1076 1355 13.51% 14.82% 71.67%-1.47 -25.6 9
2010-04-09 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-026.3 1355 1076 71.67% 14.82% 13.51%+1.47 +25.6 16
2010-04-10 Hamrun Spartans W 1-044.7 954 1082 27.26% 15.18% 57.56%-0.63 +34.5 9
2010-04-10 @ Floriana L 0-144.7 1082 954 57.56% 15.18% 27.26%+0.63 -34.5 9
2010-04-10 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-025.7 1324 1049 73.26% 14.74% 12.00%+1.60 +22.8 12
2010-04-10 @ Valletta L 0-325.7 1049 1324 12.00% 14.74% 73.26%-1.60 -22.8 4
2010-04-11 Hibernians W 3-027.7 1205 1018 66.45% 15.01% 18.54%+1.11 +34.4 9
2010-04-11 @ Qormi L 0-327.7 1018 1205 18.54% 15.01% 66.45%-1.11 -34.4 3
2010-04-11 Msida St. Joseph W 5-249.1 613 770 24.04% 15.14% 60.83%-0.79 +72.7 3
2010-04-11 @ Dingli Swallows L 2-549.1 770 613 60.83% 15.14% 24.04%+0.79 -72.8 3
2010-04-15 Qormi W 3-138.2 1380 1240 61.91% 15.12% 22.98%+0.85 +25.0 19
2010-04-15 @ Birkirkara L 1-338.2 1240 1380 22.98% 15.12% 61.91%-0.85 -25.0 9
2010-04-15 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-035.4 1051 1026 47.73% 15.26% 37.01%+0.21 +43.9 12
2010-04-15 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-235.4 1026 1051 37.01% 15.26% 47.73%-0.21 -43.9 4
2010-04-16 Dingli Swallows W 2-134.8 1048 686 77.92% 14.39% 7.69%+2.08 +5.1 12
2010-04-16 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-234.8 686 1048 7.69% 14.39% 77.92%-2.08 -5.1 3
2010-04-16 Floriana D 1-155.5 697 989 12.63% 14.78% 72.59%-1.54 +9.0 4
2010-04-16 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-155.5 989 697 72.59% 14.78% 12.63%+1.54 -9.0 10
2010-04-16 Valletta L 1-332.8 984 1347 8.76% 14.50% 76.74%-1.94 -10.1 3
2010-04-16 @ Hibernians W 3-132.8 1347 984 76.74% 14.50% 8.76%+1.94 +10.1 15
2010-04-23 Sliema Wanderers W 2-028.3 1357 1095 72.40% 14.79% 12.81%+1.53 +16.8 18
2010-04-23 @ Valletta L 0-228.3 1095 1357 12.81% 14.79% 72.40%-1.53 -16.8 12
2010-04-24 Dingli Swallows W 4-237.8 980 681 74.70% 14.65% 10.65%+1.73 +10.9 13
2010-04-24 @ Floriana L 2-437.8 681 980 10.65% 14.65% 74.70%-1.73 -10.9 3
2010-04-24 Qormi W 3-258.9 982 1215 16.88% 14.96% 68.16%-1.22 +36.5 7
2010-04-24 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 2-358.9 1215 982 68.16% 14.96% 16.88%+1.22 -36.5 9
2010-04-25 Birkirkara L 4-544.5 974 1405 6.12% 14.19% 79.69%-2.32 -3.7 3
2010-04-25 @ Hibernians W 5-444.5 1405 974 79.69% 14.19% 6.12%+2.32 +3.7 22
2010-04-25 Msida St. Joseph D 2-261.6 1053 706 77.22% 14.46% 8.32%+1.99 -7.8 13
2010-04-25 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-261.6 706 1053 8.32% 14.46% 77.22%-1.99 +7.8 5
2010-04-29 Valletta L 1-239.4 1178 1374 20.14% 15.05% 64.81%-1.01 -12.8 9
2010-04-29 @ Qormi W 2-139.4 1374 1178 64.81% 15.05% 20.14%+1.01 +12.8 21
2010-04-30 Hibernians W 3-030.1 1078 970 58.28% 15.17% 26.55%+0.67 +47.7 15
2010-04-30 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-330.1 970 1078 26.55% 15.17% 58.28%-0.67 -47.7 3
2010-04-30 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-029.4 1409 1018 79.14% 14.26% 6.60%+2.24 +4.7 25
2010-04-30 @ Birkirkara L 0-129.4 1018 1409 6.60% 14.26% 79.14%-2.24 -4.7 7
2010-05-04 Sliema Wanderers W 3-032.7 1166 1126 49.78% 15.25% 34.97%+0.29 +60.8 12
2010-05-04 @ Qormi L 0-332.7 1126 1166 34.97% 15.25% 49.78%-0.29 -60.7 15
2010-05-04 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-136.9 923 1014 31.72% 15.23% 53.05%-0.43 -20.4 3
2010-05-04 @ Hibernians W 1-036.9 1014 923 53.05% 15.23% 31.72%+0.43 +20.4 10
2010-05-05 Birkirkara W 4-251.7 1387 1414 40.41% 15.27% 44.32%-0.08 +39.7 24
2010-05-05 @ Valletta L 2-451.7 1414 1387 44.32% 15.27% 40.41%+0.08 -39.7 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-01-03 12.45% Sliema Wanderers 1015 3 @ Valletta 1283 1
2 2010-01-30 12.65% Sliema Wanderers 1029 1 @ Birkirkara 1294 0
3 2009-11-21 16.50% Floriana 964 3 @ Hibernians 1175 2
4 2010-04-24 16.88% @ Tarxien Rainbows 982 3 Qormi 1215 2
5 2009-10-24 17.31% Floriana 923 1 @ Birkirkara 1124 0
6 2009-12-22 17.79% @ Msida St. Joseph 849 1 Sliema Wanderers 1071 0
7 2010-01-24 18.26% Tarxien Rainbows 994 2 @ Qormi 1184 0
8 2010-03-13 19.02% @ Sliema Wanderers 1150 2 Valletta 1358 1
9 2009-10-23 22.38% Hibernians 1129 1 @ Valletta 1275 0
10 2010-03-27 23.86% Qormi 1075 4 @ Sliema Wanderers 1207 0
11 2010-04-11 24.04% @ Dingli Swallows 613 5 Msida St. Joseph 770 2
12 2009-12-12 24.87% Sliema Wanderers 1035 1 @ Hibernians 1157 0
13 2010-01-15 25.13% @ Hamrun Spartans 966 3 Sliema Wanderers 1113 0
14 2009-12-11 26.67% Hamrun Spartans 919 1 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1026 0
15 2009-08-22 26.70% Tarxien Rainbows 1010 4 @ Dingli Swallows 1116 1
16 2010-04-10 27.26% @ Floriana 954 1 Hamrun Spartans 1082 0
17 2009-08-30 29.55% Birkirkara 1008 2 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1090 0
18 2009-11-04 29.77% @ Hamrun Spartans 858 3 Dingli Swallows 965 0
19 2010-03-28 31.90% @ Tarxien Rainbows 989 2 Hibernians 1078 0
20 2010-02-06 34.11% Tarxien Rainbows 1074 1 @ Hibernians 1121 0
21 2009-10-24 34.49% @ Hamrun Spartans 828 1 Msida St. Joseph 898 0
22 2009-11-23 35.97% Birkirkara 1084 3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1116 0
23 2009-10-04 36.65% Floriana 917 1 @ Hamrun Spartans 944 0
24 2009-10-04 36.76% @ Qormi 1124 3 Hibernians 1177 1
25 2009-12-12 39.65% Birkirkara 1184 5 @ Qormi 1190 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-27 130.51 Qormi 4 1075 23.86% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1207 61.00% 15.13%
2 2010-01-15 97.84 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 966 25.13% Sliema Wanderers 0 1113 59.72% 15.15%
3 2009-11-04 90.44 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 858 29.77% Dingli Swallows 0 965 55.02% 15.21%
4 2009-10-17 87.51 @ Sliema Wanderers 5 987 54.00% Hamrun Spartans 0 915 30.78% 15.22%
5 2009-11-23 80.97 Birkirkara 3 1084 35.97% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1116 48.78% 15.25%
6 2009-08-22 80.36 Tarxien Rainbows 4 1010 26.70% @ Dingli Swallows 1 1116 58.12% 15.18%
7 2010-01-24 75.26 Tarxien Rainbows 2 994 18.26% @ Qormi 0 1184 66.74% 15.00%
8 2010-04-11 72.75 @ Dingli Swallows 5 613 24.04% Msida St. Joseph 2 770 60.83% 15.14%
9 2010-01-03 71.29 Sliema Wanderers 3 1015 12.45% @ Valletta 1 1283 72.78% 14.77%
10 2009-08-29 64.72 @ Valletta 6 1168 66.78% Floriana 0 978 18.21% 15.00%
11 2009-08-30 62.51 Birkirkara 2 1008 29.55% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1090 55.24% 15.21%
12 2010-05-04 60.75 @ Qormi 3 1166 49.78% Sliema Wanderers 0 1126 34.97% 15.25%
13 2010-03-28 60.00 @ Tarxien Rainbows 2 989 31.90% Hibernians 0 1078 52.87% 15.23%
14 2009-12-12 55.16 Birkirkara 5 1184 39.65% @ Qormi 2 1190 45.08% 15.27%
15 2009-09-26 54.28 Qormi 3 1070 54.04% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 971 30.74% 15.22%
16 2010-04-30 47.67 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1078 58.28% Hibernians 0 970 26.55% 15.17%
17 2009-10-04 47.58 @ Qormi 3 1124 36.76% Hibernians 1 1177 47.99% 15.26%
18 2010-03-07 46.52 Sliema Wanderers 2 1104 45.16% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1071 39.57% 15.27%
19 2010-02-07 45.21 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1072 59.83% Floriana 0 951 25.02% 15.15%
20 2010-04-15 43.93 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1051 47.73% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1026 37.01% 15.26%
21 2010-01-30 43.52 Sliema Wanderers 1 1029 12.65% @ Birkirkara 0 1294 72.57% 14.78%
22 2009-10-19 42.55 Valletta 2 1233 49.08% @ Qormi 0 1172 35.67% 15.25%
23 2009-12-18 42.48 @ Qormi 6 1134 59.34% Floriana 2 1018 25.50% 15.16%
24 2010-03-12 42.02 @ Qormi 2 1063 49.60% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1024 35.15% 15.25%
25 2009-10-03 41.74 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 1024 43.49% Sliema Wanderers 1 1029 41.25% 15.27%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-20 66.2 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 982 9.30% Birkirkara 3 1334 76.15% 14.55%
2 2010-01-18 61.7 @ Birkirkara 2 1291 61.71% Hibernians 2 1153 23.17% 15.12%
3 2010-01-31 61.6 @ Tarxien Rainbows 2 1069 19.42% Valletta 2 1272 65.54% 15.04%
4 2010-04-25 61.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1053 77.22% Msida St. Joseph 2 706 8.32% 14.46%
5 2009-11-24 61.5 @ Valletta 2 1238 67.51% Tarxien Rainbows 2 1039 17.51% 14.98%
6 2010-01-08 61.5 @ Hibernians 2 1152 36.06% Qormi 2 1210 48.69% 15.25%
7 2009-10-18 61.4 @ Hibernians 2 1130 45.06% Birkirkara 2 1124 39.67% 15.27%
8 2009-12-19 61.4 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 954 22.89% Hibernians 2 1121 61.99% 15.11%
9 2010-02-13 61.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1118 48.13% Hibernians 2 1090 36.61% 15.26%
10 2010-02-16 61.4 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1019 32.44% Tarxien Rainbows 2 1105 52.33% 15.23%
11 2009-11-21 59.0 Floriana 3 964 16.50% @ Hibernians 2 1175 68.55% 14.95%
12 2010-04-24 58.9 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 982 16.88% Qormi 2 1215 68.16% 14.96%
13 2009-12-19 55.8 @ Valletta 1 1250 45.78% Birkirkara 1 1239 38.95% 15.26%
14 2010-04-16 55.5 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 697 12.63% Floriana 1 989 72.59% 14.78%
15 2009-09-27 55.4 @ Floriana 1 913 28.82% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1028 55.98% 15.20%
16 2009-10-17 55.4 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 892 22.25% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1066 62.65% 15.10%
17 2010-01-30 55.4 @ Floriana 1 945 21.50% Hibernians 1 1127 63.42% 15.09%
18 2009-08-23 55.3 @ Floriana 1 976 34.08% Qormi 1 1048 50.67% 15.24%
19 2009-11-29 55.3 @ Floriana 1 1000 39.24% Sliema Wanderers 1 1036 45.49% 15.26%
20 2010-01-10 55.3 @ Floriana 1 919 37.40% Hamrun Spartans 1 968 47.34% 15.26%
21 2010-03-13 53.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1150 19.02% Valletta 1 1358 65.96% 15.03%
22 2010-01-03 52.1 Sliema Wanderers 3 1015 12.45% @ Valletta 1 1283 72.78% 14.77%
23 2010-05-05 51.7 @ Valletta 4 1387 40.41% Birkirkara 2 1414 44.32% 15.27%
24 2009-10-03 51.5 @ Valletta 0 1245 78.07% Msida St. Joseph 0 880 7.55% 14.38%
25 2010-01-30 49.2 Sliema Wanderers 1 1029 12.65% @ Birkirkara 0 1294 72.57% 14.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-02-05 22.8 @ Qormi 4 1133 80.46% Dingli Swallows 0 706 5.46% 14.08%
2 2010-02-15 22.8 Valletta 6 1309 84.61% @ Dingli Swallows 0 693 2.25% 13.14%
3 2010-01-02 24.6 @ Qormi 3 1192 76.51% Msida St. Joseph 0 860 8.97% 14.52%
4 2010-01-09 24.8 @ Birkirkara 2 1287 82.90% Dingli Swallows 0 777 3.47% 13.63%
5 2010-03-14 25.1 Hamrun Spartans 6 1039 77.11% @ Dingli Swallows 0 668 8.42% 14.47%
6 2009-12-26 25.6 Valletta 4 1249 71.35% @ Floriana 0 975 13.82% 14.84%
7 2010-03-20 25.7 Floriana 3 931 72.72% @ Dingli Swallows 0 637 12.51% 14.77%
8 2010-04-10 25.7 @ Valletta 3 1324 73.26% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1049 12.00% 14.74%
9 2010-04-09 26.3 Birkirkara 3 1355 71.67% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1076 13.51% 14.82%
10 2009-12-27 26.6 @ Hibernians 3 1117 69.93% Msida St. Joseph 0 889 15.18% 14.90%
11 2010-02-06 26.6 @ Valletta 4 1267 68.22% Hamrun Spartans 0 1060 16.83% 14.96%
12 2010-03-19 27.1 @ Valletta 3 1321 68.94% Qormi 0 1105 16.13% 14.93%
13 2010-04-11 27.7 @ Qormi 3 1205 66.45% Hibernians 0 1018 18.54% 15.01%
14 2010-01-03 28.1 Birkirkara 2 1270 72.13% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 985 13.07% 14.80%
15 2009-08-29 28.2 @ Valletta 6 1168 66.78% Floriana 0 978 18.21% 15.00%
16 2010-04-23 28.3 @ Valletta 2 1357 72.40% Sliema Wanderers 0 1095 12.81% 14.79%
17 2010-01-22 28.7 Hamrun Spartans 2 1064 69.81% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 811 15.29% 14.90%
18 2009-12-13 29.3 @ Valletta 4 1240 79.80% Dingli Swallows 1 832 6.02% 14.18%
19 2009-11-22 29.4 @ Qormi 2 1150 67.72% Hamrun Spartans 0 949 17.30% 14.97%
20 2010-04-30 29.4 @ Birkirkara 1 1409 79.14% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1018 6.60% 14.26%
21 2010-02-07 29.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1072 59.83% Floriana 0 951 25.02% 15.15%
22 2010-01-09 29.7 Valletta 1 1212 77.01% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 843 8.51% 14.48%
23 2010-03-06 29.9 Birkirkara 2 1300 66.44% @ Qormi 0 1087 18.55% 15.01%
24 2010-04-30 30.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1078 58.28% Hibernians 0 970 26.55% 15.17%
25 2009-12-27 30.4 @ Birkirkara 5 1240 70.52% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1004 14.60% 14.87%