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2008-09 Maltese Premier League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Hibernians

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hibernians

2.65 points above expected

42 points · 39.35 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Msida St. Joseph

24.15 points below expected

16 points · 40.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hibernians 18 13 2 3 41 49 19 +30 29.75 +11.25
2 Valletta 18 11 7 0 40 31 11 +20 33.14 +6.86
3 Birkirkara 18 9 5 4 32 31 28 +3 30.26 +1.74
4 Sliema Wanderers 18 7 5 6 26 24 24 0 27.60 -1.60
5 Floriana 18 6 4 8 22 18 21 -3 23.75 -1.75
6 Marsaxlokk 18 6 4 8 22 28 33 -5 25.54 -3.54
7 Msida St. Joseph 18 6 3 9 21 20 28 -8 20.99 +0.01
8 Hamrun Spartans 18 5 2 11 17 24 37 -13 16.67 +0.33
9 Qormi 18 3 6 9 15 16 26 -10 24.88 -9.88
10 Tarxien Rainbows 18 4 2 12 14 22 36 -14 16.34 -2.34
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hibernians 28 19 5 4 42 73 25 +48 39.35 +2.65
2 Valletta 28 17 9 2 40 50 18 +32 39.44 +0.56
3 Birkirkara 28 12 7 9 27 43 45 -2 29.40 -2.40
4 Marsaxlokk 28 10 6 12 25 46 52 -6 22.80 +2.20
5 Sliema Wanderers 28 10 8 10 25 33 41 -8 24.48 +0.52
6 Floriana 28 7 6 15 16 25 44 -19 19.70 -3.70
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Qormi 24 7 6 11 20 30 31 -1 17.22 +2.78
2 Tarxien Rainbows 24 6 5 13 16 32 44 -12 15.21 +0.79
3 Msida St. Joseph 24 7 5 12 16 25 40 -15 19.15 -3.15
4 Hamrun Spartans 24 7 3 14 16 31 48 -17 16.54 -0.54

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hibernians 42 39.35 +2.65
2 Marsaxlokk 25 22.80 +2.20
3 Valletta 40 39.44 +0.56
4 Sliema Wanderers 25 24.48 +0.52
5 Birkirkara 27 29.40 -2.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Msida St. Joseph 16 40.15 -24.15
2 Hamrun Spartans 16 33.54 -17.54
3 Tarxien Rainbows 16 29.21 -13.21
4 Qormi 20 32.22 -12.22
5 Floriana 16 19.70 -3.70

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tarxien Rainbows 3 Mar 1 – Apr 4 1 in 30
2 Hamrun Spartans 2 Dec 13 – Jan 3 1 in 29
3 Hibernians 6 Feb 22 – Apr 13 1 in 22
4 Valletta 5 Apr 11 – May 9 1 in 18
5 Marsaxlokk 3 Feb 15 – Feb 28 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Msida St. Joseph 6 Jan 31 – Apr 5 1 in 214
2 Qormi 5 Nov 23 – Dec 14 1 in 99
3 Marsaxlokk 3 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 56
4 Tarxien Rainbows 6 Nov 29 – Jan 18 1 in 30
5 Birkirkara 3 Apr 5 – Apr 19 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valletta 19 Aug 25 – Mar 14 1 in 132
2 Marsaxlokk 5 Apr 18 – May 16 1 in 31
3 Birkirkara 7 Dec 7 – Feb 16 1 in 12
4 Sliema Wanderers 6 Aug 25 – Oct 4 1 in 10
5 Msida St. Joseph 4 Dec 14 – Jan 18 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floriana 15 Jan 4 – May 16 1 in 115
2 Qormi 8 Sep 20 – Dec 14 1 in 48
3 Marsaxlokk 6 Sep 19 – Nov 23 1 in 32
4 Msida St. Joseph 7 Jan 31 – Apr 11 1 in 17
5 Valletta 3 Sep 15 – Sep 26 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hibernians 1120 62 +20 9 10.2 -1.2
Valletta 1103 60 +18 10 9.9 +0.1
Birkirkara 905 43 -26 5 6.5 -1.5
Sliema Wanderers 876 38 -5 5 5.6 -0.6
Marsaxlokk 897 36 +21 8 6.0 +2.0
Qormi 900 27 +78 12 8.4 +3.6
Floriana 754 27 -28 3 3.5 -0.5
Msida St. Joseph 748 26 -21 5 5.2 -0.2
Hamrun Spartans 755 24 -58 4 6.2 -2.2
Tarxien Rainbows 812 23 +0 6 7.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BIR FLO HS HIB MAR MSJ QOR SW TR VAL
Birkirkara —
3-0-1
7.19
2-0-0
4.19
0-0-4
4.24
0-2-2
6.86
1-1-0
3.65
1-1-0
3.29
2-1-1
6.36
2-0-0
3.91
1-2-1
3.89
Floriana
1-0-3
3.87
 —
1-1-0
3.46
1-1-2
2.88
2-0-2
4.33
0-0-2
3.24
0-1-1
2.70
1-2-1
4.38
1-0-1
3.45
0-1-3
2.57
Hamrun Spartans
0-0-2
1.38
0-1-1
2.07
 —
0-0-2
1.55
1-0-1
1.78
2-0-2
4.93
3-0-1
3.73
1-0-1
1.54
0-2-2
5.59
0-0-2
1.15
Hibernians
4-0-0
6.83
2-1-1
8.26
2-0-0
4.00
 —
3-1-0
7.35
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.17
2-1-1
7.41
2-0-0
4.39
0-2-2
5.40
Marsaxlokk
2-2-0
4.20
2-0-2
6.74
1-0-1
3.76
0-1-3
3.74
 —
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
2.87
1-1-2
5.69
1-0-1
3.67
1-0-3
3.56
Msida St. Joseph
0-1-1
1.89
2-0-0
2.28
2-0-2
6.11
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
2.24
 —
1-1-2
4.54
0-0-2
2.28
2-2-0
5.19
0-0-2
1.57
Qormi
0-1-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-3
7.35
0-0-2
2.36
0-1-1
2.65
2-1-1
6.51
 —
0-1-1
2.32
3-0-1
6.57
0-1-1
1.55
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-2
4.68
1-2-1
6.66
1-0-1
4.02
1-1-2
3.69
2-1-1
5.35
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.20
 —
1-0-1
3.86
0-2-2
3.77
Tarxien Rainbows
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.07
2-2-0
5.45
0-0-2
1.20
1-0-1
1.87
0-2-2
5.86
1-0-3
4.48
1-0-1
1.69
 —
0-1-1
1.10
Valletta
1-2-1
7.18
3-1-0
8.60
2-0-0
4.45
2-2-0
5.64
3-0-1
7.53
2-0-0
3.99
1-1-0
4.01
2-2-0
7.31
1-1-0
4.50
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +6.0
Allowed 0.52 -6.6
Differential 0.91 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%6.44%6.06%4.17%1.14%1.52%27.65%
16.44%9.85%6.44%4.17%2.65%0.76%30.30%
26.06%6.44%4.55%3.03%1.14%0.76%21.97%
34.17%4.17%3.03%—0.38%—11.74%
41.14%2.65%1.14%0.38%——5.30%
5+1.52%0.76%0.76%———3.03%
Total27.65%30.30%21.97%11.74%5.30%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 2.05
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%—3.57%3.57%21.43%
110.71%10.71%3.57%—3.57%—28.57%
27.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%——28.57%
3—10.71%7.14%———17.86%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.61 -0.07
SD 1.14 1.42 1.92
CV 0.74 0.89 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%——42.86%
17.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%7.14%—35.71%
2—7.14%———3.57%10.71%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.57 -0.68
SD 0.99 1.37 1.70
CV 1.11 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%12.50%—8.33%—37.50%
14.17%8.33%—4.17%4.17%4.17%25.00%
2—4.17%—8.33%4.17%—16.67%
38.33%—4.17%———12.50%
4—4.17%—4.17%——8.33%
5+———————
Total16.67%29.17%16.67%16.67%16.67%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.00 -0.71
SD 1.33 1.50 2.10
CV 1.03 0.75 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—3.57%———10.71%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
214.29%—3.57%3.57%——21.43%
33.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
43.57%14.29%————17.86%
5+7.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
Total42.86%28.57%25.00%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.89 +1.71
SD 1.83 0.92 2.03
CV 0.70 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
1—10.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%—32.14%
2—17.86%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
3—7.14%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total3.57%42.86%28.57%14.29%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.86 -0.21
SD 1.25 1.08 1.62
CV 0.76 0.58 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%12.50%8.33%—4.17%33.33%
112.50%8.33%16.67%——4.17%41.67%
28.33%—8.33%———16.67%
3——4.17%———4.17%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total25.00%16.67%41.67%8.33%—8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.67 -0.62
SD 1.04 1.40 1.95
CV 1.00 0.84 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
14.17%16.67%12.50%8.33%4.17%—45.83%
28.33%4.17%—4.17%——16.67%
38.33%—————8.33%
4———————
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total33.33%29.17%16.67%16.67%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.29 -0.04
SD 1.19 1.23 1.97
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%7.14%—10.71%—7.14%42.86%
13.57%10.71%—3.57%——17.86%
23.57%10.71%—3.57%3.57%—21.43%
310.71%—3.57%———14.29%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+———————
Total35.71%28.57%7.14%17.86%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.46 -0.29
SD 1.25 1.57 2.16
CV 1.06 1.08 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%8.33%8.33%——33.33%
14.17%8.33%4.17%12.50%——29.17%
2—4.17%8.33%—4.17%4.17%20.83%
34.17%4.17%————8.33%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+—4.17%————4.17%
Total16.67%33.33%20.83%20.83%4.17%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.83 -0.50
SD 1.37 1.58 2.21
CV 1.03 0.86 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
110.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
217.86%10.71%7.14%———35.71%
33.57%7.14%————10.71%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total53.57%32.14%10.71%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 0.64 +1.14
SD 1.26 0.83 1.51
CV 0.70 1.29 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hibernians 1120 42 29.75 +12.25 98.0% 15 20 26 30 33 39 43
Valletta 1103 40 33.14 +6.86 94.0% 21 25 29 33 36 41 47
Birkirkara 905 27 30.26 -3.26 63.0% 16 20 26 30 35 39 45
Qormi 900 20 24.88 -4.88 8.0% 7 12 21 26 29 34 40
Marsaxlokk 897 25 25.54 -0.54 29.0% 12 16 22 26 29 34 38
Sliema Wanderers 876 25 27.60 -2.60 50.0% 13 18 24 26 32 36 43
Tarxien Rainbows 812 16 16.34 -0.34 43.0% 5 8 12 16 20 25 29
Hamrun Spartans 755 16 16.67 -0.67 60.0% 8 10 13 16 20 25 29
Floriana 754 16 23.75 -7.75 46.0% 12 15 20 23 28 33 35
Msida St. Joseph 748 16 20.99 -4.99 52.0% 10 11 17 21 25 29 38

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.03%
No Edge
37.12%22.73%40.15%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -10.53 Elo pts.
165 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.14 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
12%
Hibernians, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.08/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.36 * Some Luck: 4.36 to 6.54 * Lucky: 6.54 to 8.72 * Wild Swing: 8.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 * Close: 1.34 to 2 * Off: 2 to 2.67 * Way Off: 2.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.46 points
Some Luck
05.4514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.674
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Hibernians
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Qormi
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 103.79
1.44
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Even
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Some Drama
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.97
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.78
Strong Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.17
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.113
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678910
Hibernians12.00%19.00%25.00%17.00%9.00%9.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%—
Valletta47.00%16.00%13.00%13.00%7.00%3.00%—1.00%——
Birkirkara24.00%20.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%9.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%—
Marsaxlokk3.00%15.00%7.00%10.00%21.00%17.00%12.00%7.00%6.00%2.00%
Sliema Wanderers10.00%16.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%16.00%9.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%
Floriana2.00%5.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%18.00%10.00%3.00%
Qormi1.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%11.00%6.00%9.00%7.00%
Tarxien Rainbows———1.00%6.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%17.00%48.00%
Msida St. Joseph1.00%1.00%4.00%6.00%12.00%9.00%20.00%20.00%16.00%11.00%
Hamrun Spartans——1.00%3.00%1.00%3.00%7.00%22.00%35.00%28.00%
Team12345678910
Hibernians50.46%40.39%7.70%1.23%0.19%0.03%————
Valletta46.63%44.76%7.29%1.08%0.22%0.02%————
Birkirkara2.48%10.90%52.39%22.13%9.45%2.65%————
Marsaxlokk0.06%1.18%11.16%25.91%33.92%27.77%————
Sliema Wanderers0.35%2.45%17.79%36.42%27.92%15.07%————
Floriana0.02%0.32%3.67%13.23%28.30%54.46%————
Qormi——————23.46%28.83%26.21%21.50%
Tarxien Rainbows——————11.28%18.41%27.59%42.72%
Msida St. Joseph——————45.57%27.19%17.74%9.50%
Hamrun Spartans——————19.69%25.57%28.46%26.28%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Hibernians 99.00% 1.00%
Marsaxlokk 95.00% 5.00%
Sliema Wanderers 93.00% 7.00%
Qormi 89.00% 11.00%
Floriana 83.00% 17.00%
Msida St. Joseph 70.00% 30.00%
Tarxien Rainbows 40.00% 60.00%
Hamrun Spartans 31.00% 69.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Marsaxlokk 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Msida St. Joseph 72.76% 27.24%
Qormi 52.29% 47.71%
Hamrun Spartans 45.26% 54.74%
Tarxien Rainbows 29.69% 70.31%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-08-23 Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.1 844 795 44.74% 23.96% 31.30%+0.23 -0.9 1
2008-08-23 @ Floriana D 0-049.1 795 844 31.30% 23.96% 44.74%-0.23 +0.9 1
2008-08-24 Msida St. Joseph W 5-138.2 858 846 39.68% 24.10% 36.23%+0.01 +31.5 3
2008-08-24 @ Hibernians L 1-538.2 846 858 36.23% 24.10% 39.68%-0.01 -31.5 0
2008-08-24 Qormi D 1-153.3 953 923 42.28% 24.05% 33.67%+0.12 -0.5 1
2008-08-24 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-153.3 923 953 33.67% 24.05% 42.28%-0.12 +0.5 1
2008-08-25 Birkirkara L 1-337.3 801 954 19.90% 22.74% 57.35%-0.99 -10.5 0
2008-08-25 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-137.3 954 801 57.35% 22.74% 19.90%+0.99 +10.5 3
2008-08-25 Valletta D 1-153.3 926 969 31.99% 23.99% 44.02%-0.33 +0.7 1
2008-08-25 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.3 969 926 44.02% 23.99% 31.99%+0.33 -0.7 1
2008-08-29 Marsaxlokk W 2-037.0 969 953 40.19% 24.09% 35.72%+0.03 +19.7 4
2008-08-29 @ Valletta L 0-237.0 953 969 35.72% 24.09% 40.19%-0.03 -19.7 1
2008-08-30 Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.6 796 927 21.99% 23.10% 54.91%-0.85 -13.2 1
2008-08-30 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-032.6 927 796 54.91% 23.10% 21.99%+0.85 +13.2 4
2008-08-30 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-040.4 814 791 41.33% 24.07% 34.60%+0.08 +10.2 3
2008-08-30 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-140.4 791 814 34.60% 24.07% 41.33%-0.08 -10.2 0
2008-08-31 Floriana L 0-145.9 964 843 53.85% 23.23% 22.92%+0.67 -14.6 3
2008-08-31 @ Birkirkara W 1-045.9 843 964 22.92% 23.23% 53.85%-0.67 +14.6 4
2008-08-31 Hibernians L 1-344.5 923 890 42.71% 24.04% 33.25%+0.14 -19.6 1
2008-08-31 @ Qormi W 3-144.5 890 923 33.25% 24.04% 42.71%-0.14 +19.6 6
2008-09-13 Msida St. Joseph W 2-032.8 950 825 54.29% 23.18% 22.53%+0.69 +13.5 6
2008-09-13 @ Birkirkara L 0-232.8 825 950 22.53% 23.18% 54.29%-0.69 -13.5 3
2008-09-13 Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.2 858 940 27.16% 23.70% 49.14%-0.56 +1.5 5
2008-09-13 @ Floriana D 0-049.2 940 858 49.14% 23.70% 27.16%+0.56 -1.5 5
2008-09-14 Hamrun Spartans W 4-241.4 933 783 57.08% 22.78% 20.13%+0.84 +9.5 4
2008-09-14 @ Marsaxlokk L 2-441.4 783 933 20.13% 22.78% 57.08%-0.84 -9.5 1
2008-09-14 Qormi L 0-330.5 780 904 22.71% 23.20% 54.08%-0.81 -19.8 0
2008-09-14 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-030.5 904 780 54.08% 23.20% 22.71%+0.81 +19.8 4
2008-09-15 Valletta D 1-153.3 909 988 27.52% 23.73% 48.75%-0.54 +1.3 7
2008-09-15 @ Hibernians D 1-153.3 988 909 48.75% 23.73% 27.52%+0.54 -1.3 5
2008-09-19 Marsaxlokk D 0-049.0 939 943 37.35% 24.10% 38.55%-0.09 +0.1 6
2008-09-19 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.0 943 939 38.55% 24.10% 37.35%+0.09 -0.1 5
2008-09-20 Birkirkara L 0-139.7 923 963 32.45% 24.01% 43.54%-0.30 -9.7 4
2008-09-20 @ Qormi W 1-039.7 963 923 43.54% 24.01% 32.45%+0.30 +9.7 9
2008-09-20 Hibernians L 1-435.0 774 910 21.38% 23.00% 55.62%-0.89 -15.8 1
2008-09-20 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-135.0 910 774 55.62% 23.00% 21.38%+0.89 +15.8 10
2008-09-21 Floriana W 4-142.2 811 859 31.37% 23.97% 44.67%-0.35 +28.8 6
2008-09-21 @ Msida St. Joseph L 1-442.2 859 811 44.67% 23.97% 31.37%+0.35 -28.8 5
2008-09-21 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-259.5 987 761 64.54% 21.24% 14.22%+1.31 -2.4 6
2008-09-21 @ Valletta D 2-259.5 761 987 14.22% 21.24% 64.54%-1.31 +2.4 1
2008-09-26 Valletta D 2-258.6 973 985 36.27% 24.10% 39.64%-0.13 +0.2 10
2008-09-26 @ Birkirkara D 2-258.6 985 973 39.64% 24.10% 36.27%+0.13 -0.1 7
2008-09-27 Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.2 763 758 38.71% 24.10% 37.19%-0.03 -0.1 2
2008-09-27 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 1-153.2 758 763 37.19% 24.10% 38.71%+0.03 +0.1 2
2008-09-27 Qormi D 1-153.3 840 914 28.16% 23.78% 48.07%-0.51 +1.2 7
2008-09-27 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-153.3 914 840 48.07% 23.78% 28.16%+0.51 -1.2 5
2008-09-28 Marsaxlokk W 3-147.3 830 943 23.85% 23.36% 52.80%-0.74 +23.5 8
2008-09-28 @ Floriana L 1-347.3 943 830 52.80% 23.36% 23.85%+0.74 -23.5 5
2008-09-28 Sliema Wanderers L 2-350.9 926 939 36.18% 24.10% 39.72%-0.14 -9.4 10
2008-09-28 @ Hibernians W 3-250.9 939 926 39.72% 24.10% 36.18%+0.14 +9.4 9
2008-10-03 Birkirkara L 0-133.7 758 973 14.97% 21.50% 63.53%-1.36 -4.9 2
2008-10-03 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-033.7 973 758 63.53% 21.50% 14.97%+1.36 +4.9 13
2008-10-04 Hibernians L 2-351.6 919 917 38.29% 24.10% 37.60%-0.05 -9.9 5
2008-10-04 @ Marsaxlokk W 3-251.6 917 919 37.60% 24.10% 38.29%+0.05 +9.9 13
2008-10-04 Tarxien Rainbows W 4-240.3 948 763 60.68% 22.14% 17.19%+1.06 +8.2 12
2008-10-04 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-440.3 763 948 17.19% 22.14% 60.68%-1.06 -8.2 2
2008-10-05 Floriana D 0-049.1 913 854 46.08% 23.90% 30.02%+0.29 -1.1 6
2008-10-05 @ Qormi D 0-049.1 854 913 30.02% 23.90% 46.08%-0.29 +1.1 9
2008-10-05 Msida St. Joseph W 2-141.0 985 841 56.36% 22.90% 20.75%+0.80 +6.3 10
2008-10-05 @ Valletta L 1-241.0 841 985 20.75% 22.90% 56.36%-0.80 -6.3 7
2008-10-18 Hamrun Spartans W 3-248.1 835 753 49.08% 23.70% 27.22%+0.43 +7.5 10
2008-10-18 @ Msida St. Joseph L 2-348.1 753 835 27.22% 23.70% 49.08%-0.43 -7.5 2
2008-10-18 Hibernians W 2-149.3 855 927 28.42% 23.80% 47.78%-0.50 +12.4 12
2008-10-18 @ Floriana L 1-249.3 927 855 47.78% 23.80% 28.42%+0.50 -12.4 13
2008-10-19 Marsaxlokk W 3-148.5 755 909 19.74% 22.71% 57.55%-1.00 +25.4 5
2008-10-19 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-348.5 909 755 57.55% 22.71% 19.74%+1.00 -25.4 5
2008-10-19 Sliema Wanderers W 4-246.2 978 956 41.04% 24.08% 34.89%+0.07 +15.0 16
2008-10-19 @ Birkirkara L 2-446.2 956 978 34.89% 24.08% 41.04%-0.07 -15.0 12
2008-11-16 Birkirkara D 1-153.4 884 993 24.19% 23.40% 52.41%-0.72 +1.7 6
2008-11-16 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-153.4 993 884 52.41% 23.40% 24.19%+0.72 -1.7 17
2008-11-16 Msida St. Joseph W 2-142.5 941 842 51.21% 23.52% 25.27%+0.53 +7.5 15
2008-11-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-242.5 842 941 25.27% 23.52% 51.21%-0.53 -7.5 10
2008-11-22 Floriana W 2-141.6 991 867 54.11% 23.20% 22.69%+0.68 +6.8 13
2008-11-22 @ Valletta L 1-241.6 867 991 22.69% 23.20% 54.11%-0.68 -6.8 12
2008-11-23 Marsaxlokk D 1-153.3 835 886 31.01% 23.95% 45.04%-0.37 +0.8 11
2008-11-23 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-153.3 886 835 45.04% 23.95% 31.01%+0.37 -0.8 7
2008-11-23 Qormi W 3-257.2 745 912 18.73% 22.50% 58.76%-1.07 +14.1 5
2008-11-23 @ Hamrun Spartans L 2-357.2 912 745 58.76% 22.50% 18.73%+1.07 -14.1 6
2008-11-29 Hamrun Spartans W 4-026.5 998 760 65.56% 20.96% 13.48%+1.38 +15.9 16
2008-11-29 @ Valletta L 0-426.5 760 998 13.48% 20.96% 65.56%-1.38 -15.9 5
2008-11-29 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-139.8 861 780 48.90% 23.72% 27.38%+0.42 +13.8 15
2008-11-29 @ Floriana L 1-339.8 780 861 27.38% 23.72% 48.90%-0.42 -13.8 5
2008-11-30 Hibernians L 0-234.5 836 914 27.60% 23.73% 48.66%-0.54 -16.0 11
2008-11-30 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-034.5 914 836 48.66% 23.73% 27.60%+0.54 +16.1 16
2008-11-30 Sliema Wanderers L 1-244.3 897 949 30.94% 23.95% 45.11%-0.37 -8.8 6
2008-11-30 @ Qormi W 2-144.3 949 897 45.11% 23.95% 30.94%+0.37 +8.8 18
2008-12-03 Hibernians L 0-638.7 991 930 46.39% 23.88% 29.73%+0.30 -67.3 17
2008-12-03 @ Birkirkara W 6-038.7 930 991 29.73% 23.88% 46.39%-0.30 +67.3 19
2008-12-06 Floriana L 0-136.3 744 874 21.97% 23.10% 54.93%-0.85 -7.0 5
2008-12-06 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-036.3 874 744 54.93% 23.10% 21.97%+0.85 +7.0 18
2008-12-06 Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.1 1014 958 45.72% 23.92% 30.36%+0.27 -1.0 17
2008-12-06 @ Valletta D 0-049.1 958 1014 30.36% 23.92% 45.72%-0.27 +1.0 19
2008-12-07 Marsaxlokk L 1-343.2 889 885 38.48% 24.10% 37.42%-0.04 -18.1 6
2008-12-07 @ Qormi W 3-143.2 885 889 37.42% 24.10% 38.48%+0.04 +18.1 10
2008-12-07 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-035.4 924 766 57.88% 22.66% 19.47%+0.89 +6.3 20
2008-12-07 @ Birkirkara L 0-135.4 766 924 19.47% 22.66% 57.88%-0.89 -6.3 5
2008-12-10 Valletta L 0-232.2 870 1013 20.89% 22.92% 56.19%-0.92 -12.6 6
2008-12-10 @ Qormi W 2-032.2 1013 870 56.19% 22.92% 20.89%+0.92 +12.6 20
2008-12-11 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-029.4 998 760 65.51% 20.98% 13.51%+1.37 +8.4 22
2008-12-11 @ Hibernians L 0-229.4 760 998 13.51% 20.98% 65.51%-1.37 -8.4 5
2008-12-13 Birkirkara L 1-244.4 881 930 31.27% 23.96% 44.77%-0.36 -8.9 18
2008-12-13 @ Floriana W 2-144.4 930 881 44.77% 23.96% 31.27%+0.36 +8.9 23
2008-12-13 Hamrun Spartans L 0-342.3 959 737 64.14% 21.34% 14.52%+1.28 -46.9 19
2008-12-13 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-042.3 737 959 14.52% 21.34% 64.14%-1.28 +46.9 8
2008-12-14 Msida St. Joseph L 0-234.9 752 820 28.87% 23.83% 47.30%-0.47 -16.6 5
2008-12-14 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-034.9 820 752 47.30% 23.83% 28.87%+0.47 +16.6 14
2008-12-14 Qormi W 3-029.6 1006 858 56.86% 22.82% 20.32%+0.83 +17.9 25
2008-12-14 @ Hibernians L 0-329.6 858 1006 20.32% 22.82% 56.86%-0.83 -17.9 6
2008-12-20 Birkirkara D 2-258.8 836 939 24.85% 23.47% 51.68%-0.69 +1.2 15
2008-12-20 @ Msida St. Joseph D 2-258.8 939 836 51.68% 23.47% 24.85%+0.69 -1.2 24
2008-12-20 Valletta L 0-136.6 903 1025 22.82% 23.22% 53.96%-0.80 -7.2 10
2008-12-20 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-036.6 1025 903 53.96% 23.22% 22.82%+0.80 +7.2 23
2008-12-21 Floriana L 0-336.9 912 872 43.45% 24.01% 32.53%+0.17 -33.4 19
2008-12-21 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-036.9 872 912 32.53% 24.01% 43.45%-0.17 +33.4 21
2008-12-21 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-037.2 840 735 51.93% 23.45% 24.62%+0.57 +7.7 9
2008-12-21 @ Qormi L 0-137.2 735 840 24.62% 23.45% 51.93%-0.57 -7.7 5
2009-01-03 Marsaxlokk W 4-358.6 784 896 23.86% 23.36% 52.79%-0.74 +12.5 11
2009-01-03 @ Hamrun Spartans L 3-458.6 896 784 52.79% 23.36% 23.86%+0.74 -12.5 10
2009-01-04 Msida St. Joseph L 0-144.1 906 837 47.36% 23.82% 28.82%+0.35 -13.1 21
2009-01-04 @ Floriana W 1-044.1 837 906 28.82% 23.82% 47.36%-0.35 +13.1 18
2009-01-04 Qormi D 1-153.4 938 848 50.14% 23.62% 26.25%+0.48 -1.4 25
2009-01-04 @ Birkirkara D 1-153.4 848 938 26.25% 23.62% 50.14%-0.48 +1.4 10
2009-01-07 Hibernians W 2-037.3 1032 1024 39.17% 24.10% 36.73%-0.01 +20.1 26
2009-01-07 @ Valletta L 0-237.3 1024 1032 36.73% 24.10% 39.17%+0.01 -20.1 25
2009-01-11 Hamrun Spartans W 1-033.9 1004 796 62.83% 21.66% 15.50%+1.19 +5.1 28
2009-01-11 @ Hibernians L 0-133.9 796 1004 15.50% 21.66% 62.83%-1.19 -5.1 11
2009-01-11 Sliema Wanderers L 1-246.7 883 878 38.64% 24.10% 37.25%-0.03 -10.5 10
2009-01-11 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-146.7 878 883 37.25% 24.10% 38.64%+0.03 +10.5 22
2009-01-17 Floriana W 2-147.3 873 893 35.11% 24.08% 40.81%-0.19 +10.9 13
2009-01-17 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-247.3 893 873 40.81% 24.08% 35.11%+0.19 -10.9 21
2009-01-17 Hibernians L 0-136.7 889 1009 23.04% 23.25% 53.71%-0.79 -7.3 22
2009-01-17 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-036.7 1009 889 53.71% 23.25% 23.04%+0.79 +7.3 31
2009-01-18 Msida St. Joseph L 0-141.3 849 851 37.74% 24.11% 38.16%-0.07 -10.9 10
2009-01-18 @ Qormi W 1-041.3 851 849 38.16% 24.11% 37.74%+0.07 +10.9 21
2009-01-18 Valletta L 1-332.8 727 1053 9.01% 18.67% 72.32%-2.03 -4.8 5
2009-01-18 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-132.8 1053 727 72.32% 18.67% 9.01%+2.03 +4.8 29
2009-01-25 Qormi L 0-239.5 882 838 44.07% 23.99% 31.94%+0.20 -23.2 21
2009-01-25 @ Floriana W 2-039.5 838 882 31.94% 23.99% 44.07%-0.20 +23.2 13
2009-01-25 Tarxien Rainbows L 0-437.5 791 722 47.37% 23.82% 28.80%+0.35 -46.8 11
2009-01-25 @ Hamrun Spartans W 4-037.5 722 791 28.80% 23.82% 47.37%-0.35 +46.8 8
2009-01-26 Birkirkara D 1-153.5 1057 936 53.80% 23.24% 22.96%+0.67 -1.9 30
2009-01-26 @ Valletta D 1-153.5 936 1057 22.96% 23.24% 53.80%-0.67 +1.9 26
2009-01-26 Marsaxlokk W 4-135.1 1016 884 55.14% 23.07% 21.80%+0.74 +16.1 34
2009-01-26 @ Hibernians L 1-435.1 884 1016 21.80% 23.07% 55.14%-0.74 -16.1 13
2009-01-31 Hamrun Spartans W 3-244.4 938 744 61.56% 21.95% 16.49%+1.11 +4.8 29
2009-01-31 @ Birkirkara L 2-344.4 744 938 16.49% 21.95% 61.56%-1.11 -4.8 11
2009-01-31 Valletta L 0-230.6 861 1055 16.50% 21.96% 61.54%-1.24 -10.2 21
2009-01-31 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-030.6 1055 861 61.54% 21.96% 16.50%+1.24 +10.2 33
2009-02-01 Floriana D 1-153.8 1032 859 59.53% 22.36% 18.11%+0.99 -2.6 35
2009-02-01 @ Hibernians D 1-153.8 859 1032 18.11% 22.36% 59.53%-0.99 +2.6 22
2009-02-01 Sliema Wanderers W 1-045.6 769 881 23.85% 23.36% 52.79%-0.74 +14.4 11
2009-02-01 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 0-145.6 881 769 52.79% 23.36% 23.85%+0.74 -14.4 22
2009-02-15 Msida St. Joseph W 1-045.6 739 851 23.88% 23.36% 52.76%-0.74 +14.4 14
2009-02-15 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-145.6 851 739 52.76% 23.36% 23.88%+0.74 -14.4 21
2009-02-15 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-143.1 868 784 49.34% 23.68% 26.98%+0.44 +7.9 16
2009-02-15 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-243.1 784 868 26.98% 23.68% 49.34%-0.44 -7.9 11
2009-02-16 Birkirkara L 2-348.4 867 943 27.89% 23.76% 48.35%-0.52 -7.7 22
2009-02-16 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-248.4 943 867 48.35% 23.76% 27.89%+0.52 +7.7 32
2009-02-16 Qormi D 0-049.8 1066 861 62.51% 21.74% 15.75%+1.17 -3.3 34
2009-02-16 @ Valletta D 0-049.8 861 1066 15.75% 21.74% 62.51%-1.17 +3.3 14
2009-02-20 Hamrun Spartans L 1-444.5 865 754 52.65% 23.37% 23.97%+0.61 -33.1 14
2009-02-20 @ Qormi W 4-144.5 754 865 23.97% 23.37% 52.65%-0.61 +33.1 17
2009-02-20 Valletta L 0-134.1 861 1062 15.98% 21.81% 62.21%-1.28 -5.2 22
2009-02-20 @ Floriana W 1-034.1 1062 861 62.21% 21.81% 15.98%+1.28 +5.2 37
2009-02-22 Hibernians L 2-730.8 776 1030 12.54% 20.58% 66.89%-1.60 -12.6 11
2009-02-22 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 7-230.8 1030 776 66.89% 20.58% 12.54%+1.60 +12.6 38
2009-02-22 Sliema Wanderers L 0-334.3 837 859 34.78% 24.07% 41.15%-0.20 -28.0 21
2009-02-22 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-034.3 859 837 41.15% 24.07% 34.78%+0.20 +28.1 25
2009-02-23 Marsaxlokk L 2-354.5 951 875 48.27% 23.76% 27.97%+0.39 -11.9 32
2009-02-23 @ Birkirkara W 3-254.5 875 951 27.97% 23.76% 48.27%-0.39 +11.9 19
2009-02-28 Birkirkara W 3-247.3 1042 939 51.72% 23.47% 24.81%+0.56 +7.0 41
2009-02-28 @ Hibernians L 2-347.3 939 1042 24.81% 23.47% 51.72%-0.56 -7.0 32
2009-02-28 Msida St. Joseph W 2-143.3 887 809 48.65% 23.74% 27.62%+0.41 +8.0 22
2009-02-28 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-243.3 809 887 27.62% 23.74% 48.65%-0.41 -8.0 21
2009-03-01 Floriana W 3-038.9 763 856 25.96% 23.59% 50.45%-0.62 +37.8 14
2009-03-01 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 0-338.9 856 763 50.45% 23.59% 25.96%+0.62 -37.8 22
2009-03-01 Qormi D 1-153.3 887 832 45.70% 23.92% 30.38%+0.27 -0.9 26
2009-03-01 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.3 832 887 30.38% 23.92% 45.70%-0.27 +0.9 15
2009-03-02 Valletta L 1-333.7 787 1068 11.08% 19.89% 69.04%-1.76 -5.9 17
2009-03-02 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-133.7 1068 787 69.04% 19.89% 11.08%+1.76 +5.9 40

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-03-14 Hibernians L 1-434.4 895 1049 19.81% 22.72% 57.47%-0.99 -14.8 0
2009-03-14 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-134.4 1049 895 57.47% 22.72% 19.81%+0.99 +14.8 3
2009-03-14 Sliema Wanderers W 5-028.5 1073 887 60.85% 22.10% 17.05%+1.07 +24.5 3
2009-03-14 @ Valletta L 0-528.5 887 1073 17.05% 22.10% 60.85%-1.07 -24.6 0
2009-03-15 Birkirkara L 0-233.2 818 932 23.68% 23.33% 52.99%-0.75 -14.1 0
2009-03-15 @ Floriana W 2-033.2 932 818 52.99% 23.33% 23.68%+0.75 +14.1 3
2009-03-15 Tarxien Rainbows L 1-247.8 833 801 42.41% 24.04% 33.54%+0.13 -11.3 0
2009-03-15 @ Qormi W 2-147.8 801 833 33.54% 24.04% 42.41%-0.13 +11.3 3
2009-03-21 Birkirkara L 1-348.5 1098 946 57.26% 22.76% 19.98%+0.85 -25.2 3
2009-03-21 @ Valletta W 3-148.5 946 1098 19.98% 22.76% 57.26%-0.85 +25.2 6
2009-03-21 Floriana W 4-131.4 1064 804 67.38% 20.43% 12.19%+1.51 +9.3 6
2009-03-21 @ Hibernians L 1-431.4 804 1064 12.19% 20.43% 67.38%-1.51 -9.3 0
2009-03-22 Msida St. Joseph W 3-036.1 781 801 35.13% 24.08% 40.78%-0.18 +31.7 3
2009-03-22 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-336.1 801 781 40.78% 24.08% 35.13%+0.18 -31.7 0
2009-03-22 Sliema Wanderers L 0-336.1 881 862 40.59% 24.08% 35.33%+0.05 -31.6 0
2009-03-22 @ Marsaxlokk W 3-036.1 862 881 35.33% 24.08% 40.59%-0.05 +31.6 3
2009-04-04 Floriana D 0-050.3 1073 795 68.82% 19.96% 11.22%+1.62 -4.2 4
2009-04-04 @ Valletta D 0-050.3 795 1073 11.22% 19.96% 68.82%-1.62 +4.2 1
2009-04-04 Hamrun Spartans W 5-138.8 812 813 37.89% 24.11% 38.00%-0.07 +32.7 6
2009-04-04 @ Tarxien Rainbows L 1-538.8 813 812 38.00% 24.11% 37.89%+0.07 -32.7 3
2009-04-05 Marsaxlokk L 1-251.0 971 849 53.98% 23.22% 22.80%+0.68 -13.8 6
2009-04-05 @ Birkirkara W 2-151.0 849 971 22.80% 23.22% 53.98%-0.68 +13.8 3
2009-04-05 Qormi L 0-533.1 769 821 30.84% 23.94% 45.22%-0.38 -41.1 0
2009-04-05 @ Msida St. Joseph W 5-033.1 821 769 45.22% 23.94% 30.84%+0.38 +41.1 3
2009-04-06 Hibernians L 0-528.7 894 1073 17.62% 22.25% 60.13%-1.15 -25.3 3
2009-04-06 @ Sliema Wanderers W 5-028.7 1073 894 60.13% 22.25% 17.62%+1.15 +25.3 9
2009-04-11 Msida St. Joseph D 0-049.3 845 728 53.34% 23.29% 23.37%+0.64 -2.0 7
2009-04-11 @ Tarxien Rainbows D 0-049.3 728 845 23.37% 23.29% 53.34%-0.64 +2.1 1
2009-04-11 Valletta L 0-134.0 863 1069 15.64% 21.70% 62.66%-1.31 -5.1 3
2009-04-11 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-034.0 1069 863 62.66% 21.70% 15.64%+1.31 +5.1 7
2009-04-12 Hamrun Spartans L 1-249.7 862 780 49.16% 23.70% 27.15%+0.43 -12.7 3
2009-04-12 @ Qormi W 2-149.7 780 862 27.15% 23.70% 49.16%-0.43 +12.7 6
2009-04-12 Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.3 799 868 28.72% 23.82% 47.47%-0.48 +1.1 2
2009-04-12 @ Floriana D 1-153.3 868 799 47.47% 23.82% 28.72%+0.48 -1.1 4
2009-04-13 Birkirkara W 2-032.2 1099 958 56.08% 22.94% 20.99%+0.79 +12.7 12
2009-04-13 @ Hibernians L 0-232.2 958 1099 20.99% 22.94% 56.08%-0.79 -12.7 6
2009-04-18 Floriana W 5-240.8 858 800 45.93% 23.91% 30.16%+0.28 +18.3 6
2009-04-18 @ Marsaxlokk L 2-540.8 800 858 30.16% 23.91% 45.93%-0.28 -18.3 2
2009-04-18 Qormi L 0-335.0 843 850 36.98% 24.10% 38.92%-0.10 -29.4 7
2009-04-18 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-035.0 850 843 38.92% 24.10% 36.98%+0.10 +29.4 6
2009-04-19 Birkirkara W 1-044.5 867 945 27.70% 23.74% 48.55%-0.53 +13.4 7
2009-04-19 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-144.5 945 867 48.55% 23.74% 27.70%+0.53 -13.4 6
2009-04-19 Hamrun Spartans W 2-040.2 730 793 29.54% 23.87% 46.59%-0.44 +24.3 4
2009-04-19 @ Msida St. Joseph L 0-240.2 793 730 46.59% 23.87% 29.54%+0.44 -24.3 6
2009-04-20 Hibernians W 2-148.1 1074 1111 32.75% 24.02% 43.23%-0.29 +11.4 10
2009-04-20 @ Valletta L 1-248.1 1111 1074 43.23% 24.02% 32.75%+0.29 -11.4 12
2009-04-25 Floriana W 3-137.4 931 782 57.02% 22.79% 20.18%+0.84 +10.6 9
2009-04-25 @ Birkirkara L 1-337.4 782 931 20.18% 22.79% 57.02%-0.84 -10.6 2
2009-04-25 Tarxien Rainbows D 1-153.3 768 813 31.75% 23.98% 44.27%-0.34 +0.7 7
2009-04-25 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.3 813 768 44.27% 23.98% 31.75%+0.34 -0.7 8
2009-04-26 Marsaxlokk D 2-259.5 1100 876 64.31% 21.30% 14.39%+1.29 -2.4 13
2009-04-26 @ Hibernians D 2-259.5 876 1100 14.39% 21.30% 64.31%-1.29 +2.4 7
2009-04-26 Msida St. Joseph W 2-141.6 879 754 54.24% 23.19% 22.57%+0.69 +6.8 9
2009-04-26 @ Qormi L 1-241.6 754 879 22.57% 23.19% 54.24%-0.69 -6.8 4
2009-04-27 Valletta L 0-327.9 880 1085 15.72% 21.73% 62.55%-1.30 -14.1 7
2009-04-27 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-027.9 1085 880 62.55% 21.73% 15.72%+1.30 +14.1 13
2009-05-02 Floriana W 2-027.3 1097 771 72.38% 18.64% 8.98%+1.91 +5.5 16
2009-05-02 @ Hibernians L 0-227.3 771 1097 8.98% 18.64% 72.38%-1.91 -5.5 2
2009-05-03 Marsaxlokk L 1-342.6 866 878 36.24% 24.10% 39.66%-0.14 -17.3 7
2009-05-03 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-142.6 878 866 39.66% 24.10% 36.24%+0.14 +17.3 10
2009-05-03 Qormi L 0-233.1 769 886 23.38% 23.30% 53.33%-0.77 -14.0 7
2009-05-03 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-033.1 886 769 53.33% 23.30% 23.38%+0.77 +14.0 12
2009-05-03 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-258.7 748 813 29.23% 23.85% 46.93%-0.46 +0.8 5
2009-05-03 @ Msida St. Joseph D 2-258.7 813 748 46.93% 23.85% 29.23%+0.46 -0.8 9
2009-05-04 Birkirkara W 4-134.3 1099 942 57.82% 22.67% 19.51%+0.89 +14.6 16
2009-05-04 @ Valletta L 1-434.3 942 1099 19.51% 22.67% 57.82%-0.89 -14.6 9
2009-05-09 Birkirkara D 2-258.7 896 928 33.50% 24.04% 42.46%-0.26 +0.4 11
2009-05-09 @ Marsaxlokk D 2-258.7 928 896 42.46% 24.04% 33.50%+0.26 -0.4 10
2009-05-09 Valletta L 0-226.9 766 1114 8.11% 18.02% 73.87%-2.17 -4.9 2
2009-05-09 @ Floriana W 2-026.9 1114 766 73.87% 18.02% 8.11%+2.17 +4.9 19
2009-05-11 Sliema Wanderers D 0-050.1 1103 849 66.88% 20.58% 12.54%+1.47 -3.9 17
2009-05-11 @ Hibernians D 0-050.1 849 1103 12.54% 20.58% 66.88%-1.47 +3.9 8
2009-05-16 Floriana W 3-031.6 853 761 50.38% 23.60% 26.02%+0.49 +22.2 11
2009-05-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-331.6 761 853 26.02% 23.60% 50.38%-0.49 -22.2 2
2009-05-16 Marsaxlokk L 1-253.5 1119 896 64.21% 21.33% 14.47%+1.28 -16.2 19
2009-05-16 @ Valletta W 2-153.5 896 1119 14.47% 21.33% 64.21%-1.28 +16.2 14
2009-05-18 Hibernians L 0-428.3 927 1099 18.26% 22.40% 59.34%-1.10 -21.2 10
2009-05-18 @ Birkirkara W 4-028.3 1099 927 59.34% 22.40% 18.26%+1.10 +21.2 20
2009-05-23 Marsaxlokk W 2-152.4 739 912 18.11% 22.36% 59.52%-1.11 +15.1 5
2009-05-23 @ Floriana L 1-252.4 912 739 59.52% 22.36% 18.11%+1.11 -15.1 14
2009-05-23 Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.1 906 875 42.28% 24.05% 33.67%+0.12 -0.5 11
2009-05-23 @ Birkirkara D 0-049.1 875 906 33.67% 24.05% 42.28%-0.12 +0.6 12
2009-05-24 Valletta D 0-049.1 1120 1103 40.46% 24.09% 35.45%+0.04 -0.3 21
2009-05-24 @ Hibernians D 0-049.1 1103 1120 35.45% 24.09% 40.46%-0.04 +0.3 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-05-16 14.47% Marsaxlokk 896 2 @ Valletta 1119 1
2 2008-12-13 14.52% Hamrun Spartans 737 3 @ Sliema Wanderers 959 0
3 2009-05-23 18.11% @ Floriana 739 2 Marsaxlokk 912 1
4 2008-11-23 18.73% @ Hamrun Spartans 745 3 Qormi 912 2
5 2008-10-19 19.74% @ Tarxien Rainbows 755 3 Marsaxlokk 909 1
6 2009-03-21 19.98% Birkirkara 946 3 @ Valletta 1098 1
7 2009-04-05 22.80% Marsaxlokk 849 2 @ Birkirkara 971 1
8 2008-08-31 22.92% Floriana 843 1 @ Birkirkara 964 0
9 2008-09-28 23.85% @ Floriana 830 3 Marsaxlokk 943 1
10 2009-02-01 23.85% @ Tarxien Rainbows 769 1 Sliema Wanderers 881 0
11 2009-01-03 23.86% @ Hamrun Spartans 784 4 Marsaxlokk 896 3
12 2009-02-15 23.88% @ Hamrun Spartans 739 1 Msida St. Joseph 851 0
13 2009-02-20 23.97% Hamrun Spartans 754 4 @ Qormi 865 1
14 2009-03-01 25.96% @ Tarxien Rainbows 763 3 Floriana 856 0
15 2009-04-12 27.15% Hamrun Spartans 780 2 @ Qormi 862 1
16 2009-04-19 27.70% @ Sliema Wanderers 867 1 Birkirkara 945 0
17 2009-02-23 27.97% Marsaxlokk 875 3 @ Birkirkara 951 2
18 2008-10-18 28.42% @ Floriana 855 2 Hibernians 927 1
19 2009-01-25 28.80% Tarxien Rainbows 722 4 @ Hamrun Spartans 791 0
20 2009-01-04 28.82% Msida St. Joseph 837 1 @ Floriana 906 0
21 2009-04-19 29.54% @ Msida St. Joseph 730 2 Hamrun Spartans 793 0
22 2008-12-03 29.73% Hibernians 930 6 @ Birkirkara 991 0
23 2008-09-21 31.37% @ Msida St. Joseph 811 4 Floriana 859 1
24 2009-01-25 31.94% Qormi 838 2 @ Floriana 882 0
25 2008-12-21 32.53% Floriana 872 3 @ Sliema Wanderers 912 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-12-03 67.31 Hibernians 6 930 29.73% @ Birkirkara 0 991 46.39% 23.88%
2 2008-12-13 46.90 Hamrun Spartans 3 737 14.52% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 959 64.14% 21.34%
3 2009-01-25 46.80 Tarxien Rainbows 4 722 28.80% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 791 47.37% 23.82%
4 2009-04-05 41.09 Qormi 5 821 45.22% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 769 30.84% 23.94%
5 2009-03-01 37.82 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 763 25.96% Floriana 0 856 50.45% 23.59%
6 2008-12-21 33.35 Floriana 3 872 32.53% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 912 43.45% 24.01%
7 2009-02-20 33.11 Hamrun Spartans 4 754 23.97% @ Qormi 1 865 52.65% 23.37%
8 2009-04-04 32.68 @ Tarxien Rainbows 5 812 37.89% Hamrun Spartans 1 813 38.00% 24.11%
9 2009-03-22 31.70 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 781 35.13% Msida St. Joseph 0 801 40.78% 24.08%
10 2009-03-22 31.59 Sliema Wanderers 3 862 35.33% @ Marsaxlokk 0 881 40.59% 24.08%
11 2008-08-24 31.51 @ Hibernians 5 858 39.68% Msida St. Joseph 1 846 36.23% 24.10%
12 2009-04-18 29.40 Qormi 3 850 38.92% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 843 36.98% 24.10%
13 2008-09-21 28.76 @ Msida St. Joseph 4 811 31.37% Floriana 1 859 44.67% 23.97%
14 2009-02-22 28.05 Sliema Wanderers 3 859 41.15% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 837 34.78% 24.07%
15 2008-10-19 25.35 @ Tarxien Rainbows 3 755 19.74% Marsaxlokk 1 909 57.55% 22.71%
16 2009-04-06 25.34 Hibernians 5 1073 60.13% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 894 17.62% 22.25%
17 2009-03-21 25.23 Birkirkara 3 946 19.98% @ Valletta 1 1098 57.26% 22.76%
18 2009-03-14 24.56 @ Valletta 5 1073 60.85% Sliema Wanderers 0 887 17.05% 22.10%
19 2009-04-19 24.32 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 730 29.54% Hamrun Spartans 0 793 46.59% 23.87%
20 2008-09-28 23.47 @ Floriana 3 830 23.85% Marsaxlokk 1 943 52.80% 23.36%
21 2009-01-25 23.23 Qormi 2 838 31.94% @ Floriana 0 882 44.07% 23.99%
22 2009-05-16 22.20 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 853 50.38% Floriana 0 761 26.02% 23.60%
23 2009-05-18 21.25 Hibernians 4 1099 59.34% @ Birkirkara 0 927 18.26% 22.40%
24 2009-01-07 20.14 @ Valletta 2 1032 39.17% Hibernians 0 1024 36.73% 24.10%
25 2008-09-14 19.78 Qormi 3 904 54.08% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 780 22.71% 23.20%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-09-21 59.5 @ Valletta 2 987 64.54% Tarxien Rainbows 2 761 14.22% 21.24%
2 2009-04-26 59.5 @ Hibernians 2 1100 64.31% Marsaxlokk 2 876 14.39% 21.30%
3 2008-12-20 58.8 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 836 24.85% Birkirkara 2 939 51.68% 23.47%
4 2009-05-03 58.7 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 748 29.23% Tarxien Rainbows 2 813 46.93% 23.85%
5 2009-05-09 58.7 @ Marsaxlokk 2 896 33.50% Birkirkara 2 928 42.46% 24.04%
6 2008-09-26 58.6 @ Birkirkara 2 973 36.27% Valletta 2 985 39.64% 24.10%
7 2009-01-03 58.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 784 23.86% Marsaxlokk 3 896 52.79% 23.36%
8 2008-11-23 57.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 745 18.73% Qormi 2 912 58.76% 22.50%
9 2009-02-23 54.5 Marsaxlokk 3 875 27.97% @ Birkirkara 2 951 48.27% 23.76%
10 2009-02-01 53.8 @ Hibernians 1 1032 59.53% Floriana 1 859 18.11% 22.36%
11 2009-01-26 53.5 @ Valletta 1 1057 53.80% Birkirkara 1 936 22.96% 23.24%
12 2009-05-16 53.5 Marsaxlokk 2 896 14.47% @ Valletta 1 1119 64.21% 21.33%
13 2008-11-16 53.4 @ Marsaxlokk 1 884 24.19% Birkirkara 1 993 52.41% 23.40%
14 2009-01-04 53.4 @ Birkirkara 1 938 50.14% Qormi 1 848 26.25% 23.62%
15 2008-08-24 53.3 @ Marsaxlokk 1 953 42.28% Qormi 1 923 33.67% 24.05%
16 2008-08-25 53.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 926 31.99% Valletta 1 969 44.02% 23.99%
17 2008-09-15 53.3 @ Hibernians 1 909 27.52% Valletta 1 988 48.75% 23.73%
18 2008-09-27 53.3 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 840 28.16% Qormi 1 914 48.07% 23.78%
19 2008-11-23 53.3 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 835 31.01% Marsaxlokk 1 886 45.04% 23.95%
20 2009-03-01 53.3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 887 45.70% Qormi 1 832 30.38% 23.92%
21 2009-04-12 53.3 @ Floriana 1 799 28.72% Sliema Wanderers 1 868 47.47% 23.82%
22 2009-04-25 53.3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 768 31.75% Tarxien Rainbows 1 813 44.27% 23.98%
23 2008-09-27 53.2 @ Tarxien Rainbows 1 763 38.71% Hamrun Spartans 1 758 37.19% 24.10%
24 2009-05-23 52.4 @ Floriana 2 739 18.11% Marsaxlokk 1 912 59.52% 22.36%
25 2008-10-04 51.6 Hibernians 3 917 37.60% @ Marsaxlokk 2 919 38.29% 24.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-11-29 26.5 @ Valletta 4 998 65.56% Hamrun Spartans 0 760 13.48% 20.96%
2 2009-05-09 26.9 Valletta 2 1114 73.87% @ Floriana 0 766 8.11% 18.02%
3 2009-05-02 27.3 @ Hibernians 2 1097 72.38% Floriana 0 771 8.98% 18.64%
4 2009-04-27 27.9 Valletta 3 1085 62.55% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 880 15.72% 21.73%
5 2009-05-18 28.3 Hibernians 4 1099 59.34% @ Birkirkara 0 927 18.26% 22.40%
6 2009-03-14 28.5 @ Valletta 5 1073 60.85% Sliema Wanderers 0 887 17.05% 22.10%
7 2009-04-06 28.7 Hibernians 5 1073 60.13% @ Sliema Wanderers 0 894 17.62% 22.25%
8 2008-12-11 29.4 @ Hibernians 2 998 65.51% Tarxien Rainbows 0 760 13.51% 20.98%
9 2008-12-14 29.6 @ Hibernians 3 1006 56.86% Qormi 0 858 20.32% 22.82%
10 2008-09-14 30.5 Qormi 3 904 54.08% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 780 22.71% 23.20%
11 2009-01-31 30.6 Valletta 2 1055 61.54% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 861 16.50% 21.96%
12 2009-02-22 30.8 Hibernians 7 1030 66.89% @ Tarxien Rainbows 2 776 12.54% 20.58%
13 2009-03-21 31.4 @ Hibernians 4 1064 67.38% Floriana 1 804 12.19% 20.43%
14 2009-05-16 31.6 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 853 50.38% Floriana 0 761 26.02% 23.60%
15 2008-12-10 32.2 Valletta 2 1013 56.19% @ Qormi 0 870 20.89% 22.92%
16 2009-04-13 32.2 @ Hibernians 2 1099 56.08% Birkirkara 0 958 20.99% 22.94%
17 2008-08-30 32.6 Sliema Wanderers 2 927 54.91% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 796 21.99% 23.10%
18 2008-09-13 32.8 @ Birkirkara 2 950 54.29% Msida St. Joseph 0 825 22.53% 23.18%
19 2009-01-18 32.8 Valletta 3 1053 72.32% @ Tarxien Rainbows 1 727 9.01% 18.67%
20 2009-04-05 33.1 Qormi 5 821 45.22% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 769 30.84% 23.94%
21 2009-05-03 33.1 Qormi 2 886 53.33% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 769 23.38% 23.30%
22 2009-03-15 33.2 Birkirkara 2 932 52.99% @ Floriana 0 818 23.68% 23.33%
23 2008-10-03 33.7 Birkirkara 1 973 63.53% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 758 14.97% 21.50%
24 2009-03-02 33.7 Valletta 3 1068 69.04% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 787 11.08% 19.89%
25 2009-01-11 33.9 @ Hibernians 1 1004 62.83% Hamrun Spartans 0 796 15.50% 21.66%