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2019-20 Maltese Premier League Season

140 games

Final

Champion

Floriana

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sirens

11.39 points above expected

35 points · 23.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Gzira United

5.93 points below expected

32 points · 37.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 20 12 5 3 41 38 15 +23 37.76 +3.24
2 Valletta 20 11 5 4 38 32 22 +10 41.36 -3.36
3 Hibernians 20 11 4 5 37 34 20 +14 37.41 -0.41
4 Sirens 20 10 5 5 35 30 26 +4 23.61 +11.39
5 Birkirkara 20 9 6 5 33 30 20 +10 33.49 -0.49
6 Gzira United 20 9 5 6 32 35 19 +16 37.93 -5.93
7 Balzan 20 8 4 8 28 33 29 +4 32.27 -4.27
8 Mosta 20 9 1 10 28 29 35 -6 20.14 +7.86
9 Hamrun Spartans 20 6 7 7 25 24 25 -1 29.60 -4.60
10 Sliema Wanderers 20 7 3 10 24 24 22 +2 28.19 -4.19
11 Gudja United 20 6 6 8 24 24 30 -6 19.17 +4.83
12 Santa Lucia 20 6 5 9 23 24 33 -9 17.57 +5.43
13 Senglea Athletic 20 3 7 10 16 21 39 -18 20.08 -4.08
14 Tarxien Rainbows 20 1 1 18 4 18 61 -43 9.50 -5.50

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sirens 35 23.61 +11.39
2 Mosta 28 20.14 +7.86
3 Santa Lucia 23 17.57 +5.43
4 Gudja United 24 19.17 +4.83
5 Floriana 41 37.76 +3.24

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gzira United 32 37.93 -5.93
2 Tarxien Rainbows 4 9.50 -5.50
3 Hamrun Spartans 25 29.60 -4.60
4 Balzan 28 32.27 -4.27
5 Sliema Wanderers 24 28.19 -4.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Birkirkara 4 Feb 8 – Mar 8 1 in 69
2 Santa Lucia 3 Jan 19 – Feb 9 1 in 63
3 Gzira United 5 Sep 29 – Nov 1 1 in 34
4 Mosta 3 Oct 6 – Oct 25 1 in 30
5 Sliema Wanderers 3 Nov 8 – Dec 7 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tarxien Rainbows 12 Aug 24 – Dec 8 1 in 687
2 Sliema Wanderers 4 Oct 5 – Nov 3 1 in 59
3 Gzira United 2 Jan 19 – Feb 1 1 in 46
4 Hibernians 2 Oct 5 – Oct 21 1 in 12
5 Mosta 4 Nov 2 – Dec 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floriana 13 Aug 23 – Dec 15 1 in 85
2 Birkirkara 8 Dec 13 – Mar 8 1 in 51
3 Sirens 5 Oct 27 – Dec 8 1 in 24
4 Gzira United 9 Aug 23 – Nov 1 1 in 20
5 Gudja United 4 Aug 24 – Sep 21 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 9 Oct 27 – Feb 1 1 in 205
2 Senglea Athletic 13 Oct 25 – Mar 7 1 in 92
3 Tarxien Rainbows 15 Aug 24 – Jan 18 1 in 24
4 Santa Lucia 10 Sep 28 – Jan 11 1 in 15
5 Gzira United 4 Aug 23 – Sep 22 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Floriana 1364 41 +3 7 9.1 -2.1
Valletta 1349 38 -35 9 8.9 +0.1
Hibernians 1341 37 -28 7 9.6 -2.6
Sirens 1213 35 +12 7 6.4 +0.6
Birkirkara 1342 33 +72 13 6.7 +6.3
Gzira United 1310 32 -43 4 7.4 -3.4
Mosta 1149 28 +18 9 5.5 +3.5
Balzan 1272 28 -3 7 7.5 -0.5
Hamrun Spartans 1210 25 -17 6 8.0 -2.0
Sliema Wanderers 1253 24 +31 10 8.3 +1.7
Gudja United 1164 24 +37 9 4.7 +4.3
Santa Lucia 1104 23 +23 9 6.5 +2.5
Senglea Athletic 1072 16 -52 1 5.2 -4.2
Tarxien Rainbows 958 4 -19 3 3.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL BIR FLO GU GU HS HIB MOS SL SA SIR SW TR VAL
Balzan —
0-2-0
2.93
0-0-2
2.61
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-0
1.42
0-0-1
1.19
1-0-0
1.55
1-0-0
2.05
0-1-0
1.67
0-0-1
1.80
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
4.34
0-0-2
1.99
Birkirkara
0-2-0
2.59
 —
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-1
1.91
1-0-1
2.40
0-1-0
1.18
2-0-0
2.25
1-1-0
3.56
1-0-0
1.78
0-1-1
3.64
1-0-0
1.54
0-0-1
1.45
1-0-0
2.11
1-1-0
1.78
Floriana
2-0-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.13
 —
1-0-1
4.04
0-2-0
2.80
0-1-0
1.76
0-1-0
1.51
1-0-0
1.90
1-0-0
2.25
1-0-0
1.82
2-0-0
3.68
1-0-0
1.81
2-0-0
4.56
0-1-1
2.35
Gudja United
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-0
0.86
1-0-1
1.52
 —
0-0-1
0.63
0-2-0
1.89
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-1
1.46
0-1-1
2.89
1-0-0
1.25
0-1-0
1.10
1-1-0
1.89
1-0-0
1.69
1-0-1
1.23
Gzira United
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.12
0-2-0
2.71
1-0-0
2.15
 —
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-1
1.55
1-0-0
2.16
0-1-1
4.25
1-0-0
2.07
0-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
3.51
1-0-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.39
Hamrun Spartans
0-1-0
1.34
0-1-0
1.58
0-1-0
1.00
0-2-0
3.64
0-1-1
2.22
 —
1-0-1
2.14
0-0-2
3.71
0-1-0
1.98
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.09
0-0-1
1.78
1-0-1
4.21
0-0-1
0.93
Hibernians
1-0-0
1.57
0-0-2
3.27
0-1-0
1.25
1-1-0
4.18
1-0-0
1.21
1-0-1
3.38
 —
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-0
2.01
1-1-0
4.00
0-0-2
4.04
1-0-0
1.86
2-0-0
4.59
0-1-0
1.19
Mosta
0-0-1
1.21
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-1
0.87
1-0-0
1.29
0-0-1
0.63
2-0-0
1.82
0-0-2
1.50
 —
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.73
0-0-2
2.82
1-0-0
1.35
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-1
0.69
Santa Lucia
0-0-1
0.73
0-0-1
0.98
0-0-1
0.55
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
1.33
0-1-0
0.79
0-0-1
0.77
0-0-2
2.46
 —
1-1-0
2.53
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-1
0.99
2-0-0
3.44
1-1-0
1.11
Senglea Athletic
0-1-0
1.10
1-1-0
1.90
0-0-1
0.95
0-0-1
1.51
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-2
1.95
0-1-1
1.56
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.98
 —
0-2-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.00
0-1-0
1.86
0-0-1
0.73
Sirens
1-0-0
0.97
0-0-1
1.22
0-0-2
1.85
0-1-0
1.66
1-0-0
0.70
0-0-2
2.44
2-0-0
1.51
2-0-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.09
0-2-0
2.85
 —
1-1-0
2.40
1-0-0
2.01
0-1-0
0.73
Sliema Wanderers
0-0-2
2.49
1-0-0
1.30
0-0-1
0.96
0-1-1
3.64
1-1-0
2.02
1-0-0
0.99
0-0-1
0.90
0-0-1
1.40
1-0-0
1.77
1-0-1
3.53
0-1-1
3.12
 —
2-0-0
4.18
0-0-2
1.83
Tarxien Rainbows
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-1
0.67
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-1
1.07
0-0-1
0.48
1-0-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
2.09
0-1-0
0.90
0-0-1
0.77
0-0-2
1.39
 —
0-0-1
0.50
Valletta
2-0-0
3.54
0-1-1
3.76
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
4.35
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-0
1.83
0-1-0
1.57
1-0-0
2.10
0-1-1
4.49
1-0-0
2.05
0-1-0
2.05
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-0
2.30
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +14.9
Allowed 0.80 -7.5
Differential 0.90 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.43%7.50%6.43%2.14%2.14%1.07%25.71%
17.50%10.00%8.57%5.36%1.79%0.36%33.57%
26.43%8.57%5.71%1.79%0.36%0.71%23.57%
32.14%5.36%1.79%0.71%0.36%—10.36%
42.14%1.79%0.36%0.36%——4.64%
5+1.07%0.36%0.71%———2.14%
Total25.71%33.57%23.57%10.36%4.64%2.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.89
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 140

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%———20.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%——30.00%
25.00%10.00%5.00%—5.00%—25.00%
310.00%5.00%—5.00%——20.00%
4———————
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total30.00%25.00%20.00%20.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.45 +0.20
SD 1.31 1.28 2.04
CV 0.79 0.88 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%————20.00%
110.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%——30.00%
215.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%——35.00%
35.00%——5.00%——10.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+———————
Total40.00%35.00%10.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.10 1.08 1.40
CV 0.73 1.08 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%————20.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%———20.00%
25.00%15.00%10.00%———30.00%
35.00%10.00%————15.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total40.00%45.00%15.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 0.75 +1.15
SD 1.45 0.72 1.66
CV 0.76 0.96 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.00%15.00%———30.00%
15.00%25.00%5.00%——5.00%40.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%———15.00%
3——10.00%———10.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+———————
Total10.00%50.00%35.00%——5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.50 -0.30
SD 1.15 1.24 1.72
CV 0.96 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%10.00%15.00%———40.00%
1—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
25.00%—5.00%———10.00%
35.00%25.00%————30.00%
4———————
5+5.00%5.00%————10.00%
Total30.00%45.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.95 +0.80
SD 1.83 0.76 2.12
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%——35.00%
15.00%15.00%10.00%———30.00%
2—10.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
3—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%35.00%30.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.25 -0.05
SD 1.20 0.97 1.54
CV 1.00 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
15.00%15.00%15.00%———35.00%
215.00%20.00%5.00%———40.00%
3—5.00%————5.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.70 1.00 +0.70
SD 1.08 0.73 1.53
CV 0.64 0.73 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.00%—5.00%5.00%15.00%
120.00%5.00%15.00%15.00%——55.00%
25.00%10.00%————15.00%
3————5.00%—5.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+——5.00%———5.00%
Total30.00%15.00%25.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.75 -0.30
SD 1.28 1.55 2.23
CV 0.88 0.89 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%—40.00%
1—10.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
2—15.00%5.00%———20.00%
3—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
4———————
5+——5.00%———5.00%
Total10.00%35.00%40.00%10.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.65 -0.45
SD 1.36 0.99 1.73
CV 1.13 0.60 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%15.00%———5.00%25.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%—45.00%
25.00%5.00%15.00%——5.00%30.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total15.00%35.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.95 -0.90
SD 0.76 1.57 1.68
CV 0.72 0.81 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—5.00%5.00%5.00%—25.00%
110.00%10.00%5.00%—5.00%—30.00%
215.00%5.00%5.00%———25.00%
35.00%5.00%————10.00%
4——5.00%5.00%——10.00%
5+———————
Total40.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.30 +0.20
SD 1.28 1.38 1.94
CV 0.85 1.06 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%20.00%5.00%———30.00%
15.00%10.00%20.00%5.00%——40.00%
210.00%10.00%————20.00%
3———————
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%45.00%25.00%5.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.10 +0.10
SD 1.20 0.85 1.65
CV 1.00 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%—15.00%15.00%5.00%40.00%
1——15.00%15.00%5.00%—35.00%
2——5.00%10.00%—5.00%20.00%
3——5.00%———5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—5.00%25.00%40.00%20.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 3.05 -2.15
SD 0.91 1.05 1.53
CV 1.01 0.34 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—5.00%———10.00%
125.00%10.00%—5.00%5.00%—45.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
3—15.00%————15.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.10 +0.50
SD 1.05 1.21 1.64
CV 0.65 1.10 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Floriana 1364 41 46.08 -5.08 28.0% 34 36 41 46 50 57 62
Valletta 1349 38 49.68 -11.68 7.0% 34 38 46 49 54 59 67
Birkirkara 1342 33 41.81 -8.81 10.0% 24 30 37 42 46 52 55
Hibernians 1341 37 45.73 -8.73 11.0% 26 35 41 46 50 56 62
Gzira United 1310 32 46.25 -14.25 1.0% 29 37 43 47 50 54 58
Balzan 1272 28 40.59 -12.59 0.0% 29 30 35 40 45 51 57
Sliema Wanderers 1253 24 36.51 -12.51 1.0% 23 28 32 36 41 46 50
Sirens 1213 35 31.93 +3.07 76.0% 15 21 28 32 35 41 50
Hamrun Spartans 1210 25 37.92 -12.92 4.0% 18 26 33 39 43 48 52
Gudja United 1164 24 27.49 -3.49 28.0% 9 17 24 27 32 37 42
Mosta 1149 28 28.46 -0.46 49.0% 11 18 24 29 32 41 44
Santa Lucia 1104 23 25.89 -2.89 36.0% 9 16 22 26 30 36 44
Senglea Athletic 1072 16 28.40 -12.40 2.0% 16 18 23 29 32 37 48
Tarxien Rainbows 958 4 17.82 -13.82 0.0% 6 9 14 18 21 28 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-5.71%
No Edge
35.71%22.86%41.43%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -19.88 Elo pts.
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.13 goals
Neutral
-2-0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Floriana, 3rd of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.15/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.38 * Some Luck: 4.38 to 6.57 * Lucky: 6.57 to 8.77 * Wild Swing: 8.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.58 * Close: 1.58 to 2.37 * Off: 2.37 to 3.16 * Way Off: 3.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.24 points
Some Luck
05.4814
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.71
Close
01.974
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
97.58%
Sirens
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
2.17%
Tarxien Rainbows
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 121.07
1.63
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
74%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Even
50%93%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.00
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.38
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Floriana18.00%19.00%14.00%13.00%13.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%1.00%—————
Valletta35.00%26.00%12.00%8.00%10.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Hibernians19.00%20.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%1.00%—2.00%———
Sirens1.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%8.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%17.00%14.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%
Birkirkara5.00%10.00%12.00%17.00%13.00%13.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%——
Gzira United15.00%16.00%24.00%17.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%———1.00%———
Balzan5.00%4.00%11.00%12.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%6.00%7.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%——
Mosta——1.00%—1.00%4.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%19.00%15.00%24.00%12.00%6.00%
Hamrun Spartans2.00%3.00%7.00%11.00%15.00%11.00%14.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%
Sliema Wanderers—1.00%4.00%10.00%8.00%19.00%7.00%21.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%—2.00%—
Gudja United————1.00%1.00%4.00%5.00%11.00%15.00%17.00%26.00%12.00%8.00%
Santa Lucia—————1.00%4.00%3.00%10.00%8.00%13.00%25.00%24.00%12.00%
Senglea Athletic——1.00%1.00%—2.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%18.00%11.00%20.00%5.00%
Tarxien Rainbows———————1.00%—1.00%6.00%4.00%25.00%63.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Balzan 100% —
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Gzira United 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 98.00% 2.00%
Hamrun Spartans 97.00% 3.00%
Sirens 92.00% 8.00%
Mosta 82.00% 18.00%
Gudja United 80.00% 20.00%
Senglea Athletic 75.00% 25.00%
Santa Lucia 64.00% 36.00%
Tarxien Rainbows 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-08-23 Floriana L 0-141.9 1259 1252 38.90% 24.23% 36.87%-0.08 -10.9 0
2019-08-23 @ Birkirkara W 1-041.9 1252 1259 36.87% 24.23% 38.90%+0.08 +10.9 3
2019-08-23 Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.3 1294 1257 43.13% 24.15% 32.72%+0.11 -0.7 1
2019-08-23 @ Gzira United D 0-049.3 1257 1294 32.72% 24.15% 43.13%-0.11 +0.7 1
2019-08-23 Santa Lucia L 2-359.7 1354 1132 64.14% 21.36% 14.49%+1.24 -15.0 0
2019-08-23 @ Valletta W 3-259.7 1132 1354 14.49% 21.36% 64.14%-1.24 +15.0 3
2019-08-23 Senglea Athletic D 1-153.3 1132 1170 32.61% 24.15% 43.24%-0.36 +0.6 1
2019-08-23 @ Sirens D 1-153.3 1170 1132 43.24% 24.15% 32.61%+0.36 -0.6 1
2019-08-24 Hibernians D 1-154.1 1132 1322 16.79% 22.09% 61.12%-1.29 +2.8 1
2019-08-24 @ Gudja United D 1-154.1 1322 1132 61.12% 22.09% 16.79%+1.29 -2.8 1
2019-08-24 Mosta L 0-435.1 1132 1142 36.44% 24.23% 39.33%-0.18 -37.1 0
2019-08-24 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 4-035.1 1142 1132 39.33% 24.23% 36.44%+0.18 +37.1 3
2019-08-24 Sliema Wanderers W 2-146.5 1273 1251 41.03% 24.21% 34.76%+0.01 +9.4 3
2019-08-24 @ Balzan L 1-246.5 1251 1273 34.76% 24.21% 41.03%-0.01 -9.4 0
2019-08-28 Birkirkara W 1-044.5 1169 1248 27.50% 23.85% 48.65%-0.61 +13.1 4
2019-08-28 @ Senglea Athletic L 0-144.5 1248 1169 48.65% 23.85% 27.50%+0.61 -13.1 0
2019-08-28 Tarxien Rainbows W 4-133.4 1319 1095 64.29% 21.33% 14.39%+1.25 +10.7 4
2019-08-28 @ Hibernians L 1-433.4 1095 1319 14.39% 21.33% 64.29%-1.25 -10.7 0
2019-08-29 Balzan W 1-042.6 1263 1283 35.09% 24.21% 40.69%-0.24 +11.3 6
2019-08-29 @ Floriana L 0-142.6 1283 1263 40.69% 24.21% 35.09%+0.24 -11.3 3
2019-08-29 Valletta L 1-340.7 1242 1339 25.41% 23.65% 50.95%-0.72 -12.7 0
2019-08-29 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-140.7 1339 1242 50.95% 23.65% 25.41%+0.72 +12.7 3
2019-08-30 Gudja United D 2-259.7 1258 1134 54.05% 23.30% 22.65%+0.64 -1.4 2
2019-08-30 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-259.7 1134 1258 22.65% 23.30% 54.05%-0.64 +1.4 2
2019-08-30 Gzira United D 0-049.3 1147 1294 20.37% 22.92% 56.71%-1.03 +2.5 4
2019-08-30 @ Santa Lucia D 0-049.3 1294 1147 56.71% 22.92% 20.37%+1.03 -2.5 2
2019-08-30 Sirens L 3-457.0 1179 1132 44.48% 24.10% 31.43%+0.17 -10.6 3
2019-08-30 @ Mosta W 4-357.0 1132 1179 31.43% 24.10% 44.48%-0.17 +10.6 4
2019-09-13 Hamrun Spartans L 2-346.0 1084 1256 18.21% 22.46% 59.33%-1.18 -5.2 0
2019-09-13 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-246.0 1256 1084 59.33% 22.46% 18.21%+1.18 +5.2 5
2019-09-14 Balzan D 3-363.8 1235 1271 32.85% 24.15% 42.99%-0.35 +0.3 1
2019-09-14 @ Birkirkara D 3-363.8 1271 1235 42.99% 24.15% 32.85%+0.35 -0.4 4
2019-09-14 Hibernians W 2-153.5 1143 1329 17.04% 22.16% 60.80%-1.27 +15.0 7
2019-09-14 @ Sirens L 1-253.5 1329 1143 60.80% 22.16% 17.04%+1.27 -15.0 4
2019-09-14 Mosta W 2-146.4 1182 1169 39.80% 24.23% 35.98%-0.04 +9.7 7
2019-09-14 @ Senglea Athletic L 1-246.4 1169 1182 35.98% 24.23% 39.80%+0.04 -9.7 3
2019-09-14 Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.8 1291 1229 46.52% 23.99% 29.49%+0.26 -1.0 3
2019-09-14 @ Gzira United D 1-153.8 1229 1291 29.49% 23.99% 46.52%-0.26 +1.0 1
2019-09-15 Floriana D 1-154.4 1352 1274 48.46% 23.86% 27.68%+0.35 -1.2 4
2019-09-15 @ Valletta D 1-154.4 1274 1352 27.68% 23.86% 48.46%-0.35 +1.2 7
2019-09-15 Santa Lucia D 1-153.2 1136 1149 35.99% 24.23% 39.78%-0.20 +0.2 3
2019-09-15 @ Gudja United D 1-153.2 1149 1136 39.78% 24.23% 35.99%+0.20 -0.2 5
2019-09-20 Birkirkara D 1-153.5 1159 1235 27.82% 23.87% 48.31%-0.59 +1.2 4
2019-09-20 @ Mosta D 1-153.5 1235 1159 48.31% 23.87% 27.82%+0.59 -1.2 2
2019-09-21 Gudja United D 1-153.5 1230 1136 50.52% 23.69% 25.80%+0.45 -1.5 2
2019-09-21 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.5 1136 1230 25.80% 23.69% 50.52%-0.45 +1.5 4
2019-09-21 Senglea Athletic W 2-142.5 1314 1192 53.95% 23.31% 22.74%+0.63 +6.7 7
2019-09-21 @ Hibernians L 1-242.5 1192 1314 22.74% 23.31% 53.95%-0.63 -6.7 7
2019-09-21 Sirens W 4-031.5 1262 1158 51.72% 23.57% 24.71%+0.52 +27.2 8
2019-09-21 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-431.5 1158 1262 24.71% 23.57% 51.72%-0.52 -27.1 7
2019-09-21 Valletta L 0-235.6 1271 1350 27.44% 23.84% 48.72%-0.61 -15.6 4
2019-09-21 @ Balzan W 2-035.6 1350 1271 48.72% 23.84% 27.44%+0.61 +15.6 7
2019-09-22 Gzira United D 0-049.3 1275 1290 35.75% 24.22% 40.02%-0.21 +0.3 8
2019-09-22 @ Floriana D 0-049.3 1290 1275 40.02% 24.22% 35.75%+0.21 -0.3 4
2019-09-22 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-144.1 1149 1079 47.46% 23.93% 28.61%+0.31 +8.1 8
2019-09-22 @ Santa Lucia L 1-244.1 1079 1149 28.61% 23.93% 47.46%-0.31 -8.1 0
2019-09-27 Sliema Wanderers L 1-241.0 1071 1228 19.47% 22.74% 57.79%-1.09 -5.8 0
2019-09-27 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 2-141.0 1228 1071 57.79% 22.74% 19.47%+1.09 +5.8 5
2019-09-28 Floriana L 0-232.6 1137 1276 21.22% 23.07% 55.71%-0.97 -12.5 4
2019-09-28 @ Gudja United W 2-032.6 1276 1137 55.71% 23.07% 21.22%+0.97 +12.5 11
2019-09-28 Hamrun Spartans L 1-340.0 1185 1289 24.73% 23.57% 51.70%-0.76 -12.4 7
2019-09-28 @ Senglea Athletic W 3-140.0 1289 1185 51.70% 23.57% 24.73%+0.76 +12.4 11
2019-09-28 Santa Lucia W 3-145.0 1131 1157 34.20% 24.19% 41.60%-0.28 +18.8 10
2019-09-28 @ Sirens L 1-345.0 1157 1131 41.60% 24.19% 34.20%+0.28 -18.8 8
2019-09-28 Valletta D 2-260.5 1234 1366 21.83% 23.17% 55.00%-0.93 +1.5 3
2019-09-28 @ Birkirkara D 2-260.5 1366 1234 55.00% 23.17% 21.83%+0.93 -1.5 8
2019-09-29 Balzan W 2-036.9 1290 1255 42.79% 24.16% 33.05%+0.09 +18.2 7
2019-09-29 @ Gzira United L 0-236.9 1255 1290 33.05% 24.16% 42.79%-0.09 -18.2 4
2019-09-29 Hibernians L 1-241.2 1160 1321 19.16% 22.67% 58.17%-1.11 -5.7 4
2019-09-29 @ Mosta W 2-141.2 1321 1160 58.17% 22.67% 19.16%+1.11 +5.7 10
2019-10-03 Gzira United L 1-347.7 1364 1308 45.70% 24.04% 30.26%+0.22 -20.3 8
2019-10-03 @ Valletta W 3-147.7 1308 1364 30.26% 24.04% 45.70%-0.22 +20.3 10
2019-10-05 Birkirkara L 0-145.4 1327 1236 50.19% 23.72% 26.09%+0.44 -13.4 10
2019-10-05 @ Hibernians W 1-045.4 1236 1327 26.09% 23.72% 50.19%-0.44 +13.4 6
2019-10-05 Gudja United W 1-036.9 1237 1125 52.74% 23.46% 23.80%+0.57 +7.4 7
2019-10-05 @ Balzan L 0-136.9 1125 1237 23.80% 23.46% 52.74%-0.57 -7.4 4
2019-10-05 Senglea Athletic D 0-048.7 1138 1173 33.07% 24.16% 42.77%-0.34 +0.6 9
2019-10-05 @ Santa Lucia D 0-048.7 1173 1138 42.77% 24.16% 33.07%+0.34 -0.6 8
2019-10-05 Sirens L 0-144.7 1234 1149 49.38% 23.79% 26.83%+0.40 -13.2 5
2019-10-05 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-044.7 1149 1234 26.83% 23.79% 49.38%-0.40 +13.2 13
2019-10-06 Mosta L 0-243.3 1301 1155 56.64% 22.93% 20.43%+0.78 -28.2 11
2019-10-06 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-043.3 1155 1301 20.43% 22.93% 56.64%-0.78 +28.2 7
2019-10-06 Tarxien Rainbows W 2-139.1 1288 1065 64.20% 21.35% 14.45%+1.25 +4.4 14
2019-10-06 @ Floriana L 1-239.1 1065 1288 14.45% 21.35% 64.20%-1.25 -4.4 0
2019-10-18 Santa Lucia W 1-039.4 1183 1139 44.05% 24.12% 31.84%+0.15 +9.3 10
2019-10-18 @ Mosta L 0-139.4 1139 1183 31.84% 24.12% 44.05%-0.15 -9.3 9
2019-10-18 Sliema Wanderers W 2-039.9 1172 1221 31.22% 24.09% 44.69%-0.42 +23.0 11
2019-10-18 @ Senglea Athletic L 0-239.9 1221 1172 44.69% 24.09% 31.22%+0.42 -23.0 5
2019-10-19 Floriana L 1-436.4 1163 1292 22.02% 23.20% 54.77%-0.92 -15.9 13
2019-10-19 @ Sirens W 4-136.4 1292 1163 54.77% 23.20% 22.02%+0.92 +15.9 17
2019-10-19 Gzira United L 1-341.3 1249 1328 27.45% 23.84% 48.71%-0.61 -13.5 6
2019-10-19 @ Birkirkara W 3-141.3 1328 1249 48.71% 23.84% 27.45%+0.61 +13.5 13
2019-10-20 Balzan L 1-337.1 1061 1244 17.29% 22.22% 60.49%-1.25 -9.0 0
2019-10-20 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-137.1 1244 1061 60.49% 22.22% 17.29%+1.25 +9.0 10
2019-10-20 Valletta L 0-133.5 1118 1344 14.20% 21.26% 64.54%-1.52 -4.6 4
2019-10-20 @ Gudja United W 1-033.5 1344 1118 64.54% 21.26% 14.20%+1.52 +4.6 11
2019-10-21 Hamrun Spartans L 1-249.4 1313 1273 43.57% 24.13% 32.30%+0.13 -11.2 10
2019-10-21 @ Hibernians W 2-149.4 1273 1313 32.30% 24.13% 43.57%-0.13 +11.2 14
2019-10-25 Mosta L 0-141.6 1198 1192 38.72% 24.23% 37.05%-0.09 -10.9 5
2019-10-25 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-041.6 1192 1198 37.05% 24.23% 38.72%+0.09 +10.9 13
2019-10-25 Senglea Athletic W 5-032.1 1308 1195 52.86% 23.44% 23.70%+0.57 +32.3 20
2019-10-25 @ Floriana L 0-532.1 1195 1308 23.70% 23.44% 52.86%-0.57 -32.3 11
2019-10-26 Gudja United W 6-131.1 1342 1113 64.75% 21.20% 14.05%+1.29 +16.5 16
2019-10-26 @ Gzira United L 1-631.1 1113 1342 14.05% 21.20% 64.75%-1.29 -16.5 4
2019-10-26 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-134.3 1349 1052 70.29% 19.42% 10.29%+1.70 +5.3 14
2019-10-26 @ Valletta L 1-334.3 1052 1349 10.29% 19.42% 70.29%-1.70 -5.3 0
2019-10-27 Birkirkara D 0-049.2 1284 1236 44.68% 24.09% 31.23%+0.18 -0.9 15
2019-10-27 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.2 1236 1284 31.23% 24.09% 44.68%-0.18 +0.9 7
2019-10-27 Sirens L 2-452.1 1253 1147 52.07% 23.53% 24.39%+0.53 -20.3 10
2019-10-27 @ Balzan W 4-252.1 1147 1253 24.39% 23.53% 52.07%-0.53 +20.3 16
2019-10-28 Hibernians L 0-231.6 1129 1302 18.16% 22.44% 59.40%-1.18 -10.9 9
2019-10-28 @ Santa Lucia W 2-031.6 1302 1129 59.40% 22.44% 18.16%+1.18 +10.9 13
2019-11-01 Gzira United L 0-526.3 1046 1358 9.60% 18.99% 71.41%-2.04 -13.4 0
2019-11-01 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 5-026.3 1358 1046 71.41% 18.99% 9.60%+2.04 +13.4 19
2019-11-01 Santa Lucia D 1-153.9 1283 1118 58.58% 22.60% 18.82%+0.89 -2.4 16
2019-11-01 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.9 1118 1283 18.82% 22.60% 58.58%-0.89 +2.4 10
2019-11-02 Balzan D 2-259.5 1163 1233 28.53% 23.93% 47.55%-0.55 +0.8 12
2019-11-02 @ Senglea Athletic D 2-259.5 1233 1163 47.55% 23.93% 28.53%+0.55 -0.8 11
2019-11-02 Floriana L 1-339.1 1203 1341 21.26% 23.08% 55.66%-0.97 -10.9 13
2019-11-02 @ Mosta W 3-139.1 1341 1203 55.66% 23.08% 21.26%+0.97 +10.9 23
2019-11-03 Sliema Wanderers W 1-036.7 1313 1187 54.34% 23.26% 22.40%+0.65 +7.0 16
2019-11-03 @ Hibernians L 0-136.7 1187 1313 22.40% 23.26% 54.34%-0.65 -7.0 5
2019-11-03 Valletta D 0-049.8 1167 1354 17.02% 22.15% 60.83%-1.27 +3.0 17
2019-11-03 @ Sirens D 0-049.8 1354 1167 60.83% 22.15% 17.02%+1.27 -3.0 15
2019-11-04 Gudja United L 2-357.4 1236 1096 55.91% 23.04% 21.05%+0.74 -13.2 7
2019-11-04 @ Birkirkara W 3-257.4 1096 1236 21.05% 23.04% 55.91%-0.74 +13.2 7
2019-11-08 Hamrun Spartans W 2-041.9 1180 1281 25.02% 23.61% 51.37%-0.74 +25.9 8
2019-11-08 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-241.9 1281 1180 51.37% 23.61% 25.02%+0.74 -25.8 16
2019-11-08 Mosta W 5-034.7 1232 1192 43.54% 24.13% 32.32%+0.13 +41.7 14
2019-11-08 @ Balzan L 0-534.7 1192 1232 32.32% 24.13% 43.54%-0.13 -41.7 13
2019-11-08 Senglea Athletic W 1-034.8 1351 1164 60.87% 22.14% 16.99%+1.03 +5.4 18
2019-11-08 @ Valletta L 0-134.8 1164 1351 16.99% 22.14% 60.87%-1.03 -5.4 12
2019-11-09 Birkirkara L 0-233.8 1121 1223 24.87% 23.59% 51.54%-0.75 -14.4 10
2019-11-09 @ Santa Lucia W 2-033.8 1223 1121 51.54% 23.59% 24.87%+0.75 +14.4 10
2019-11-09 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-249.1 1110 1033 48.35% 23.87% 27.78%+0.35 +7.5 10
2019-11-09 @ Gudja United L 2-349.1 1033 1110 27.78% 23.87% 48.35%-0.35 -7.5 0
2019-11-10 Hibernians D 2-260.8 1352 1320 42.34% 24.17% 33.49%+0.07 -0.4 24
2019-11-10 @ Floriana D 2-260.8 1320 1352 33.49% 24.17% 42.34%-0.07 +0.4 17
2019-11-10 Sirens L 0-148.4 1372 1170 62.26% 21.83% 15.91%+1.12 -16.3 19
2019-11-10 @ Gzira United W 1-048.4 1170 1372 15.91% 21.83% 62.26%-1.12 +16.3 20
2019-11-22 Floriana D 0-049.8 1255 1351 25.54% 23.66% 50.80%-0.71 +1.7 17
2019-11-22 @ Hamrun Spartans D 0-049.8 1351 1255 50.80% 23.66% 25.54%+0.71 -1.7 25
2019-11-23 Gudja United D 1-153.3 1186 1117 47.40% 23.94% 28.66%+0.30 -1.1 21
2019-11-23 @ Sirens D 1-153.3 1117 1186 28.66% 23.94% 47.40%-0.30 +1.1 11
2019-11-23 Sliema Wanderers L 0-431.6 1107 1206 25.18% 23.62% 51.20%-0.73 -27.6 10
2019-11-23 @ Santa Lucia W 4-031.6 1206 1107 51.20% 23.62% 25.18%+0.73 +27.6 11
2019-11-24 Balzan W 2-145.8 1320 1274 44.36% 24.10% 31.54%+0.16 +8.8 20
2019-11-24 @ Hibernians L 1-245.8 1274 1320 31.54% 24.10% 44.36%-0.16 -8.7 14
2019-11-24 Valletta L 0-428.5 1150 1356 15.60% 21.74% 62.67%-1.39 -17.9 13
2019-11-24 @ Mosta W 4-028.5 1356 1150 62.67% 21.74% 15.60%+1.39 +17.9 21
2019-11-25 Gzira United L 1-337.1 1158 1356 16.23% 21.93% 61.84%-1.34 -8.5 12
2019-11-25 @ Senglea Athletic W 3-137.1 1356 1158 61.84% 21.93% 16.23%+1.34 +8.5 22
2019-11-25 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-028.2 1238 1026 63.21% 21.60% 15.19%+1.18 +13.3 13
2019-11-25 @ Birkirkara L 0-328.2 1026 1238 15.19% 21.60% 63.21%-1.18 -13.3 0
2019-12-06 Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.7 1265 1257 39.12% 24.23% 36.65%-0.07 -0.1 15
2019-12-06 @ Balzan D 1-153.7 1257 1265 36.65% 24.23% 39.12%+0.07 +0.1 18
2019-12-07 Birkirkara W 2-148.0 1234 1251 35.42% 24.22% 40.36%-0.23 +10.6 14
2019-12-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-248.0 1251 1234 40.36% 24.22% 35.42%+0.23 -10.6 13
2019-12-07 Mosta W 3-136.1 1364 1132 64.98% 21.14% 13.88%+1.30 +7.3 25
2019-12-07 @ Gzira United L 1-336.1 1132 1364 13.88% 21.14% 64.98%-1.30 -7.3 13
2019-12-07 Santa Lucia W 2-138.0 1349 1079 68.25% 20.14% 11.61%+1.54 +3.5 28
2019-12-07 @ Floriana L 1-238.0 1079 1349 11.61% 20.14% 68.25%-1.54 -3.5 10
2019-12-07 Senglea Athletic W 4-142.5 1118 1150 33.49% 24.17% 42.33%-0.32 +26.9 14
2019-12-07 @ Gudja United L 1-442.5 1150 1118 42.33% 24.17% 33.49%+0.32 -26.9 12
2019-12-08 Hibernians D 1-155.1 1374 1329 44.22% 24.11% 31.67%+0.16 -0.7 22
2019-12-08 @ Valletta D 1-155.1 1329 1374 31.67% 24.11% 44.22%-0.16 +0.7 21
2019-12-08 Sirens L 0-329.3 1012 1185 18.13% 22.44% 59.43%-1.19 -15.8 0
2019-12-08 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-029.3 1185 1012 59.43% 22.44% 18.13%+1.19 +15.8 24
2019-12-13 Balzan L 0-328.9 1075 1265 16.81% 22.10% 61.10%-1.29 -14.7 10
2019-12-13 @ Santa Lucia W 3-028.9 1265 1075 61.10% 22.10% 16.81%+1.29 +14.7 18
2019-12-13 Gzira United W 2-041.4 1330 1371 32.16% 24.13% 43.72%-0.38 +22.6 24
2019-12-13 @ Hibernians L 0-241.4 1371 1330 43.72% 24.13% 32.16%+0.38 -22.6 25
2019-12-13 Sirens W 2-036.4 1240 1201 43.40% 24.14% 32.46%+0.12 +17.9 16
2019-12-13 @ Birkirkara L 0-236.4 1201 1240 32.46% 24.14% 43.40%-0.12 -17.9 24
2019-12-15 Floriana L 1-243.5 1244 1353 24.15% 23.50% 52.34%-0.79 -7.0 14
2019-12-15 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-143.5 1353 1244 52.34% 23.50% 24.15%+0.79 +7.0 31
2019-12-15 Valletta L 0-137.7 1257 1374 23.32% 23.39% 53.28%-0.84 -7.2 18
2019-12-15 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-037.7 1374 1257 53.28% 23.39% 23.32%+0.84 +7.2 25
2019-12-16 Tarxien Rainbows D 2-259.5 1123 996 54.38% 23.25% 22.36%+0.65 -1.4 13
2019-12-16 @ Senglea Athletic D 2-259.5 996 1123 22.36% 23.25% 54.38%-0.65 +1.4 1
2020-01-08 Gudja United W 1-042.1 1125 1145 35.06% 24.21% 40.73%-0.25 +11.3 16
2020-01-08 @ Mosta L 0-142.1 1145 1125 40.73% 24.21% 35.06%+0.25 -11.3 14
2020-01-11 Balzan L 1-245.6 1237 1280 31.99% 24.12% 43.89%-0.39 -8.8 14
2020-01-11 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-145.6 1280 1237 43.89% 24.12% 31.99%+0.39 +8.8 21
2020-01-11 Sirens D 2-259.4 1121 1183 29.57% 24.00% 46.43%-0.50 +0.7 14
2020-01-11 @ Senglea Athletic D 2-259.4 1183 1121 46.43% 24.00% 29.57%+0.50 -0.7 25
2020-01-11 Tarxien Rainbows W 5-238.5 1136 998 55.77% 23.06% 21.17%+0.73 +13.3 19
2020-01-11 @ Mosta L 2-538.5 998 1136 21.17% 23.06% 55.77%-0.73 -13.3 1
2020-01-11 Valletta D 2-261.1 1061 1381 9.24% 18.76% 72.00%-2.09 +3.0 11
2020-01-11 @ Santa Lucia D 2-261.1 1381 1061 72.00% 18.76% 9.24%+2.09 -3.0 26
2020-01-12 Birkirkara L 0-146.1 1360 1258 51.49% 23.59% 24.91%+0.50 -13.7 31
2020-01-12 @ Floriana W 1-046.1 1258 1360 24.91% 23.59% 51.49%-0.50 +13.7 19
2020-01-12 Gudja United W 2-030.4 1352 1134 63.81% 21.45% 14.74%+1.22 +8.9 27
2020-01-12 @ Hibernians L 0-230.4 1134 1352 14.74% 21.45% 63.81%-1.22 -8.9 14
2020-01-13 Gzira United L 0-332.7 1250 1349 25.20% 23.62% 51.18%-0.73 -21.1 18
2020-01-13 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-032.7 1349 1250 51.18% 23.62% 25.20%+0.73 +21.1 28
2020-01-18 Floriana L 1-342.6 1289 1346 30.10% 24.03% 45.87%-0.48 -14.6 21
2020-01-18 @ Balzan W 3-142.6 1346 1289 45.87% 24.03% 30.10%+0.48 +14.6 34
2020-01-18 Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.5 1125 1228 24.73% 23.57% 51.70%-0.76 +1.6 15
2020-01-18 @ Gudja United D 1-153.5 1228 1125 51.70% 23.57% 24.73%+0.76 -1.6 19
2020-01-18 Hibernians L 0-424.2 985 1361 7.11% 17.09% 75.80%-2.44 -7.9 1
2020-01-18 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 4-024.2 1361 985 75.80% 17.09% 7.11%+2.44 +7.9 30
2020-01-18 Senglea Athletic D 1-153.8 1272 1122 57.00% 22.87% 20.13%+0.80 -2.2 20
2020-01-18 @ Birkirkara D 1-153.8 1122 1272 20.13% 22.87% 57.00%-0.80 +2.2 15
2020-01-19 Mosta W 2-036.5 1182 1150 42.50% 24.17% 33.33%+0.08 +18.3 28
2020-01-19 @ Sirens L 0-236.5 1150 1182 33.33% 24.17% 42.50%-0.08 -18.3 19
2020-01-19 Santa Lucia L 1-255.6 1370 1064 70.99% 19.15% 9.86%+1.76 -17.2 28
2020-01-19 @ Gzira United W 2-155.6 1064 1370 9.86% 19.15% 70.99%-1.76 +17.2 14
2020-01-20 Sliema Wanderers W 2-142.1 1378 1228 56.98% 22.87% 20.15%+0.80 +6.0 29
2020-01-20 @ Valletta L 1-242.1 1228 1378 20.15% 22.87% 56.98%-0.80 -6.0 14
2020-02-01 Gudja United W 2-148.8 1081 1127 31.62% 24.11% 44.27%-0.40 +11.4 17
2020-02-01 @ Santa Lucia L 1-248.8 1127 1081 44.27% 24.11% 31.62%+0.40 -11.4 15
2020-02-01 Gzira United W 2-043.3 1222 1353 21.95% 23.19% 54.85%-0.92 +27.4 17
2020-02-01 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-243.3 1353 1222 54.85% 23.19% 21.95%+0.92 -27.4 28
2020-02-01 Senglea Athletic W 1-040.9 1132 1124 38.91% 24.23% 36.86%-0.08 +10.5 22
2020-02-01 @ Mosta L 0-140.9 1124 1132 36.86% 24.23% 38.91%+0.08 -10.5 15
2020-02-01 Tarxien Rainbows L 2-359.8 1227 977 66.57% 20.67% 12.75%+1.42 -15.5 19
2020-02-01 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-259.8 977 1227 12.75% 20.67% 66.57%-1.42 +15.5 4
2020-02-02 Sirens L 0-244.3 1369 1201 58.96% 22.53% 18.52%+0.91 -29.2 30
2020-02-02 @ Hibernians W 2-044.3 1201 1369 18.52% 22.53% 58.96%-0.91 +29.2 31
2020-02-02 Valletta L 0-142.7 1361 1384 34.64% 24.20% 41.15%-0.26 -10.0 34
2020-02-02 @ Floriana W 1-042.7 1384 1361 41.15% 24.20% 34.64%+0.26 +10.0 32
2020-02-03 Birkirkara D 0-049.2 1274 1270 38.52% 24.24% 37.24%-0.09 -0.1 22
2020-02-03 @ Balzan D 0-049.2 1270 1274 37.24% 24.24% 38.52%+0.09 +0.1 21
2020-02-08 Balzan W 3-140.6 1394 1274 53.63% 23.35% 23.02%+0.61 +11.7 35
2020-02-08 @ Valletta L 1-340.6 1274 1394 23.02% 23.35% 53.63%-0.61 -11.7 22
2020-02-08 Floriana D 2-260.8 1325 1351 34.30% 24.20% 41.51%-0.28 +0.3 29
2020-02-08 @ Gzira United D 2-260.8 1351 1325 41.51% 24.20% 34.30%+0.28 -0.3 35
2020-02-08 Mosta W 2-142.1 1270 1142 54.55% 23.23% 22.22%+0.66 +6.5 24
2020-02-08 @ Birkirkara L 1-242.1 1142 1270 22.22% 23.23% 54.55%-0.66 -6.5 22
2020-02-08 Sliema Wanderers W 1-046.2 1115 1250 21.57% 23.13% 55.31%-0.95 +14.6 18
2020-02-08 @ Gudja United L 0-146.2 1250 1115 55.31% 23.13% 21.57%+0.95 -14.6 17
2020-02-09 Hibernians D 1-154.4 1114 1340 14.24% 21.27% 64.49%-1.51 +3.2 16
2020-02-09 @ Senglea Athletic D 1-154.4 1340 1114 64.49% 21.27% 14.24%+1.51 -3.2 31
2020-02-09 Santa Lucia L 1-339.8 992 1092 25.10% 23.61% 51.29%-0.74 -12.6 4
2020-02-09 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 3-139.8 1092 992 51.29% 23.61% 25.10%+0.74 +12.6 20
2020-02-10 Hamrun Spartans L 1-248.0 1230 1211 40.53% 24.22% 35.25%-0.01 -10.6 31
2020-02-10 @ Sirens W 2-148.0 1211 1230 35.25% 24.22% 40.53%+0.01 +10.6 22
2020-02-15 Gudja United L 1-254.2 1351 1130 64.02% 21.40% 14.59%+1.24 -15.8 35
2020-02-15 @ Floriana W 2-154.2 1130 1351 14.59% 21.40% 64.02%-1.24 +15.7 21
2020-02-15 Mosta W 3-136.9 1337 1135 62.21% 21.84% 15.94%+1.12 +8.3 34
2020-02-15 @ Hibernians L 1-336.9 1135 1337 15.94% 21.84% 62.21%-1.12 -8.3 22
2020-02-15 Sirens L 0-233.3 1105 1219 23.57% 23.43% 53.01%-0.83 -13.7 20
2020-02-15 @ Santa Lucia W 2-033.3 1219 1105 53.01% 23.43% 23.57%+0.83 +13.8 34
2020-02-15 Tarxien Rainbows W 1-032.5 1235 980 67.01% 20.54% 12.45%+1.45 +4.0 20
2020-02-15 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-132.5 980 1235 12.45% 20.54% 67.01%-1.45 -4.0 4
2020-02-16 Birkirkara L 1-447.5 1406 1276 54.71% 23.21% 22.08%+0.67 -33.5 35
2020-02-16 @ Valletta W 4-147.5 1276 1406 22.08% 23.21% 54.71%-0.67 +33.5 27
2020-02-16 Gzira United L 1-342.0 1262 1326 29.39% 23.99% 46.62%-0.51 -14.3 22
2020-02-16 @ Balzan W 3-142.0 1326 1262 46.62% 23.99% 29.39%+0.51 +14.3 32
2020-02-17 Senglea Athletic W 1-037.1 1222 1117 51.87% 23.55% 24.57%+0.52 +7.6 25
2020-02-17 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-137.1 1117 1222 24.57% 23.55% 51.87%-0.52 -7.6 16
2020-02-21 Floriana L 0-424.5 976 1335 7.72% 17.61% 74.67%-2.33 -8.6 4
2020-02-21 @ Tarxien Rainbows W 4-024.5 1335 976 74.67% 17.61% 7.72%+2.33 +8.6 38
2020-02-21 Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.0 1233 1239 37.04% 24.23% 38.73%-0.16 +0.1 35
2020-02-21 @ Sirens D 0-049.0 1239 1233 38.73% 24.23% 37.04%+0.16 -0.1 21
2020-02-21 Valletta L 0-141.9 1340 1372 33.41% 24.17% 42.42%-0.32 -9.7 32
2020-02-21 @ Gzira United W 1-041.9 1372 1340 42.42% 24.17% 33.41%+0.32 +9.7 38
2020-02-22 Balzan L 0-233.8 1146 1248 24.84% 23.58% 51.58%-0.75 -14.4 21
2020-02-22 @ Gudja United W 2-033.8 1248 1146 51.58% 23.58% 24.84%+0.75 +14.4 25
2020-02-22 Hamrun Spartans W 2-150.9 1127 1230 24.84% 23.58% 51.57%-0.75 +13.0 25
2020-02-22 @ Mosta L 1-250.9 1230 1127 51.57% 23.58% 24.84%+0.75 -13.0 25
2020-02-22 Hibernians W 2-149.7 1310 1345 32.98% 24.16% 42.86%-0.34 +11.1 30
2020-02-22 @ Birkirkara L 1-249.7 1345 1310 42.86% 24.16% 32.98%+0.34 -11.1 34
2020-02-22 Santa Lucia L 2-544.6 1109 1091 40.50% 24.22% 35.29%-0.01 -22.5 16
2020-02-22 @ Senglea Athletic W 5-244.6 1091 1109 35.29% 24.22% 40.50%+0.01 +22.5 23
2020-03-06 Sirens W 3-032.1 1343 1233 52.50% 23.48% 24.01%+0.56 +20.3 41
2020-03-06 @ Floriana L 0-332.1 1233 1343 24.01% 23.48% 52.50%-0.56 -20.3 35
2020-03-07 Gudja United L 0-245.8 1382 1131 66.61% 20.66% 12.72%+1.42 -32.6 38
2020-03-07 @ Valletta W 2-045.8 1131 1382 12.72% 20.66% 66.61%-1.42 +32.6 24
2020-03-07 Hibernians L 1-242.9 1217 1334 23.27% 23.39% 53.35%-0.84 -6.8 25
2020-03-07 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-142.9 1334 1217 53.35% 23.39% 23.27%+0.84 +6.8 37
2020-03-07 Mosta L 1-245.8 1114 1140 34.18% 24.19% 41.63%-0.28 -9.3 23
2020-03-07 @ Santa Lucia W 2-145.8 1140 1114 41.63% 24.19% 34.18%+0.28 +9.3 28
2020-03-07 Senglea Athletic W 4-135.4 1239 1087 57.22% 22.83% 19.95%+0.81 +14.5 24
2020-03-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-435.4 1087 1239 19.95% 22.83% 57.22%-0.81 -14.5 16
2020-03-08 Birkirkara L 0-239.5 1330 1321 39.22% 24.23% 36.55%-0.06 -20.7 32
2020-03-08 @ Gzira United W 2-039.5 1321 1330 36.55% 24.23% 39.22%+0.06 +20.7 33
2020-03-08 Tarxien Rainbows W 3-026.1 1262 967 70.18% 19.46% 10.36%+1.69 +9.0 28
2020-03-08 @ Balzan L 0-326.1 967 1262 10.36% 19.46% 70.18%-1.69 -9.0 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-01-19 9.86% Santa Lucia 1064 2 @ Gzira United 1370 1
2 2020-03-07 12.72% Gudja United 1131 2 @ Valletta 1382 0
3 2020-02-01 12.75% Tarxien Rainbows 977 3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1227 2
4 2019-08-23 14.49% Santa Lucia 1132 3 @ Valletta 1354 2
5 2020-02-15 14.59% Gudja United 1130 2 @ Floriana 1351 1
6 2019-11-10 15.91% Sirens 1170 1 @ Gzira United 1372 0
7 2019-09-14 17.04% @ Sirens 1143 2 Hibernians 1329 1
8 2020-02-02 18.52% Sirens 1201 2 @ Hibernians 1369 0
9 2019-10-06 20.43% Mosta 1155 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1301 0
10 2019-11-04 21.05% Gudja United 1096 3 @ Birkirkara 1236 2
11 2020-02-08 21.57% @ Gudja United 1115 1 Sliema Wanderers 1250 0
12 2020-02-01 21.95% @ Sliema Wanderers 1222 2 Gzira United 1353 0
13 2020-02-16 22.08% Birkirkara 1276 4 @ Valletta 1406 1
14 2019-10-27 24.39% Sirens 1147 4 @ Balzan 1253 2
15 2020-02-22 24.84% @ Mosta 1127 2 Hamrun Spartans 1230 1
16 2020-01-12 24.91% Birkirkara 1258 1 @ Floriana 1360 0
17 2019-11-08 25.02% @ Sliema Wanderers 1180 2 Hamrun Spartans 1281 0
18 2019-10-05 26.09% Birkirkara 1236 1 @ Hibernians 1327 0
19 2019-10-05 26.83% Sirens 1149 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1234 0
20 2019-08-28 27.50% @ Senglea Athletic 1169 1 Birkirkara 1248 0
21 2019-10-03 30.26% Gzira United 1308 3 @ Valletta 1364 1
22 2019-10-18 31.22% @ Senglea Athletic 1172 2 Sliema Wanderers 1221 0
23 2019-08-30 31.43% Sirens 1132 4 @ Mosta 1179 3
24 2020-02-01 31.62% @ Santa Lucia 1081 2 Gudja United 1127 1
25 2019-12-13 32.16% @ Hibernians 1330 2 Gzira United 1371 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-11-08 41.71 @ Balzan 5 1232 43.54% Mosta 0 1192 32.32% 24.13%
2 2019-08-24 37.14 Mosta 4 1142 39.33% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1132 36.44% 24.23%
3 2020-02-16 33.47 Birkirkara 4 1276 22.08% @ Valletta 1 1406 54.71% 23.21%
4 2020-03-07 32.61 Gudja United 2 1131 12.72% @ Valletta 0 1382 66.61% 20.66%
5 2019-10-25 32.31 @ Floriana 5 1308 52.86% Senglea Athletic 0 1195 23.70% 23.44%
6 2020-02-02 29.23 Sirens 2 1201 18.52% @ Hibernians 0 1369 58.96% 22.53%
7 2019-10-06 28.19 Mosta 2 1155 20.43% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1301 56.64% 22.93%
8 2019-11-23 27.60 Sliema Wanderers 4 1206 51.20% @ Santa Lucia 0 1107 25.18% 23.62%
9 2020-02-01 27.40 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1222 21.95% Gzira United 0 1353 54.85% 23.19%
10 2019-09-21 27.16 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1262 51.72% Sirens 0 1158 24.71% 23.57%
11 2019-12-07 26.93 @ Gudja United 4 1118 33.49% Senglea Athletic 1 1150 42.33% 24.17%
12 2019-11-08 25.85 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1180 25.02% Hamrun Spartans 0 1281 51.37% 23.61%
13 2019-10-18 22.97 @ Senglea Athletic 2 1172 31.22% Sliema Wanderers 0 1221 44.69% 24.09%
14 2019-12-13 22.56 @ Hibernians 2 1330 32.16% Gzira United 0 1371 43.72% 24.13%
15 2020-02-22 22.51 Santa Lucia 5 1091 35.29% @ Senglea Athletic 2 1109 40.50% 24.22%
16 2020-01-13 21.14 Gzira United 3 1349 51.18% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1250 25.20% 23.62%
17 2020-03-08 20.71 Birkirkara 2 1321 36.55% @ Gzira United 0 1330 39.22% 24.23%
18 2020-03-06 20.30 @ Floriana 3 1343 52.50% Sirens 0 1233 24.01% 23.48%
19 2019-10-03 20.26 Gzira United 3 1308 30.26% @ Valletta 1 1364 45.70% 24.04%
20 2019-10-27 20.26 Sirens 4 1147 24.39% @ Balzan 2 1253 52.07% 23.53%
21 2019-09-28 18.78 @ Sirens 3 1131 34.20% Santa Lucia 1 1157 41.60% 24.19%
22 2020-01-19 18.27 @ Sirens 2 1182 42.50% Mosta 0 1150 33.33% 24.17%
23 2019-09-29 18.15 @ Gzira United 2 1290 42.79% Balzan 0 1255 33.05% 24.16%
24 2019-12-13 17.90 @ Birkirkara 2 1240 43.40% Sirens 0 1201 32.46% 24.14%
25 2019-11-24 17.89 Valletta 4 1356 62.67% @ Mosta 0 1150 15.60% 21.74%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-14 63.8 @ Birkirkara 3 1235 32.85% Balzan 3 1271 42.99% 24.15%
2 2020-01-11 61.1 @ Santa Lucia 2 1061 9.24% Valletta 2 1381 72.00% 18.76%
3 2019-11-10 60.8 @ Floriana 2 1352 42.34% Hibernians 2 1320 33.49% 24.17%
4 2020-02-08 60.8 @ Gzira United 2 1325 34.30% Floriana 2 1351 41.51% 24.20%
5 2019-09-28 60.5 @ Birkirkara 2 1234 21.83% Valletta 2 1366 55.00% 23.17%
6 2020-02-01 59.8 Tarxien Rainbows 3 977 12.75% @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1227 66.57% 20.67%
7 2019-08-23 59.7 Santa Lucia 3 1132 14.49% @ Valletta 2 1354 64.14% 21.36%
8 2019-08-30 59.7 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1258 54.05% Gudja United 2 1134 22.65% 23.30%
9 2019-11-02 59.5 @ Senglea Athletic 2 1163 28.53% Balzan 2 1233 47.55% 23.93%
10 2019-12-16 59.5 @ Senglea Athletic 2 1123 54.38% Tarxien Rainbows 2 996 22.36% 23.25%
11 2020-01-11 59.4 @ Senglea Athletic 2 1121 29.57% Sirens 2 1183 46.43% 24.00%
12 2019-11-04 57.4 Gudja United 3 1096 21.05% @ Birkirkara 2 1236 55.91% 23.04%
13 2019-08-30 57.0 Sirens 4 1132 31.43% @ Mosta 3 1179 44.48% 24.10%
14 2020-01-19 55.6 Santa Lucia 2 1064 9.86% @ Gzira United 1 1370 70.99% 19.15%
15 2019-12-08 55.1 @ Valletta 1 1374 44.22% Hibernians 1 1329 31.67% 24.11%
16 2019-09-15 54.4 @ Valletta 1 1352 48.46% Floriana 1 1274 27.68% 23.86%
17 2020-02-09 54.4 @ Senglea Athletic 1 1114 14.24% Hibernians 1 1340 64.49% 21.27%
18 2020-02-15 54.2 Gudja United 2 1130 14.59% @ Floriana 1 1351 64.02% 21.40%
19 2019-08-24 54.1 @ Gudja United 1 1132 16.79% Hibernians 1 1322 61.12% 22.09%
20 2019-11-01 53.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1283 58.58% Santa Lucia 1 1118 18.82% 22.60%
21 2019-09-14 53.8 @ Gzira United 1 1291 46.52% Sliema Wanderers 1 1229 29.49% 23.99%
22 2020-01-18 53.8 @ Birkirkara 1 1272 57.00% Senglea Athletic 1 1122 20.13% 22.87%
23 2019-12-06 53.7 @ Balzan 1 1265 39.12% Hamrun Spartans 1 1257 36.65% 24.23%
24 2019-09-14 53.5 @ Sirens 2 1143 17.04% Hibernians 1 1329 60.80% 22.16%
25 2019-09-20 53.5 @ Mosta 1 1159 27.82% Birkirkara 1 1235 48.31% 23.87%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-01-18 24.2 Hibernians 4 1361 75.80% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 985 7.11% 17.09%
2 2020-02-21 24.5 Floriana 4 1335 74.67% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 976 7.72% 17.61%
3 2020-03-08 26.1 @ Balzan 3 1262 70.18% Tarxien Rainbows 0 967 10.36% 19.46%
4 2019-11-01 26.3 Gzira United 5 1358 71.41% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1046 9.60% 18.99%
5 2019-11-25 28.2 @ Birkirkara 3 1238 63.21% Tarxien Rainbows 0 1026 15.19% 21.60%
6 2019-11-24 28.5 Valletta 4 1356 62.67% @ Mosta 0 1150 15.60% 21.74%
7 2019-12-13 28.9 Balzan 3 1265 61.10% @ Santa Lucia 0 1075 16.81% 22.10%
8 2019-12-08 29.3 Sirens 3 1185 59.43% @ Tarxien Rainbows 0 1012 18.13% 22.44%
9 2020-01-12 30.4 @ Hibernians 2 1352 63.81% Gudja United 0 1134 14.74% 21.45%
10 2019-10-26 31.1 @ Gzira United 6 1342 64.75% Gudja United 1 1113 14.05% 21.20%
11 2019-09-21 31.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 4 1262 51.72% Sirens 0 1158 24.71% 23.57%
12 2019-10-28 31.6 Hibernians 2 1302 59.40% @ Santa Lucia 0 1129 18.16% 22.44%
13 2019-11-23 31.6 Sliema Wanderers 4 1206 51.20% @ Santa Lucia 0 1107 25.18% 23.62%
14 2019-10-25 32.1 @ Floriana 5 1308 52.86% Senglea Athletic 0 1195 23.70% 23.44%
15 2020-03-06 32.1 @ Floriana 3 1343 52.50% Sirens 0 1233 24.01% 23.48%
16 2020-02-15 32.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1235 67.01% Tarxien Rainbows 0 980 12.45% 20.54%
17 2019-09-28 32.6 Floriana 2 1276 55.71% @ Gudja United 0 1137 21.22% 23.07%
18 2020-01-13 32.7 Gzira United 3 1349 51.18% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1250 25.20% 23.62%
19 2020-02-15 33.3 Sirens 2 1219 53.01% @ Santa Lucia 0 1105 23.57% 23.43%
20 2019-08-28 33.4 @ Hibernians 4 1319 64.29% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1095 14.39% 21.33%
21 2019-10-20 33.5 Valletta 1 1344 64.54% @ Gudja United 0 1118 14.20% 21.26%
22 2019-11-09 33.8 Birkirkara 2 1223 51.54% @ Santa Lucia 0 1121 24.87% 23.59%
23 2020-02-22 33.8 Balzan 2 1248 51.58% @ Gudja United 0 1146 24.84% 23.58%
24 2019-10-26 34.3 @ Valletta 3 1349 70.29% Tarxien Rainbows 1 1052 10.29% 19.42%
25 2019-11-08 34.7 @ Balzan 5 1232 43.54% Mosta 0 1192 32.32% 24.13%