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2023-24 Maltese Premier League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Hamrun Spartans

62 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sliema Wanderers

12.37 points above expected

50 points · 37.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Gudja United

13.56 points below expected

6 points · 19.56 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 26 19 5 2 62 61 16 +45 53.31 +8.69
2 Floriana 26 18 3 5 57 53 19 +34 50.67 +6.33
3 Sliema Wanderers 26 14 8 4 50 34 12 +22 37.63 +12.37
4 Marsaxlokk 26 12 7 7 43 40 23 +17 39.30 +3.70
5 Birkirkara 26 9 9 8 36 28 27 +1 42.26 -6.26
6 Hibernians 26 9 8 9 35 29 28 +1 39.24 -4.24
7 Naxxar Lions 26 9 8 9 35 32 35 -3 31.09 +3.91
8 Balzan 26 8 10 8 34 26 28 -2 33.76 +0.24
9 Gzira United 26 9 6 11 33 38 33 +5 37.28 -4.28
10 Mosta 26 7 10 9 31 19 32 -13 30.52 +0.48
11 Santa Lucia 26 8 6 12 30 25 41 -16 22.43 +7.57
12 Valletta 26 6 9 11 27 26 31 -5 36.66 -9.66
13 Sirens 26 3 7 16 16 17 50 -33 22.11 -6.11
14 Gudja United 26 0 6 20 6 14 67 -53 19.56 -13.56

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2. Phase 2 split the league into a Championship Round and a Relegation Round, each played as its own round-robin.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 50 37.63 +12.37
2 Hamrun Spartans 62 53.31 +8.69
3 Santa Lucia 30 22.43 +7.57
4 Floriana 57 50.67 +6.33
5 Naxxar Lions 35 31.09 +3.91

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gudja United 6 19.56 -13.56
2 Valletta 27 36.66 -9.66
3 Birkirkara 36 42.26 -6.26
4 Sirens 16 22.11 -6.11
5 Gzira United 33 37.28 -4.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 8 Dec 13 – Feb 18 1 in 99
2 Sliema Wanderers 5 Dec 3 – Jan 20 1 in 78
3 Santa Lucia 3 Feb 10 – Feb 25 1 in 51
4 Naxxar Lions 3 Nov 5 – Dec 3 1 in 41
5 Marsaxlokk 3 Apr 12 – Apr 27 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gudja United 16 Dec 16 – May 2 1 in 3,328
2 Gzira United 4 Dec 3 – Jan 6 1 in 148
3 Floriana 3 Apr 20 – May 3 1 in 102
4 Mosta 3 Nov 26 – Dec 9 1 in 32
5 Hibernians 3 Sep 26 – Oct 22 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Naxxar Lions 8 Sep 26 – Dec 10 1 in 108
2 Sliema Wanderers 12 Dec 3 – Mar 10 1 in 91
3 Balzan 7 Feb 18 – Apr 14 1 in 41
4 Marsaxlokk 6 Mar 9 – Apr 27 1 in 22
5 Floriana 11 Sep 17 – Dec 17 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gudja United 26 Sep 17 – May 2 1 in 157
2 Valletta 9 Feb 3 – Apr 14 1 in 24
3 Balzan 8 Jan 21 – Mar 8 1 in 16
4 Mosta 7 Nov 5 – Jan 20 1 in 13
5 Sliema Wanderers 4 Mar 16 – Apr 20 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hamrun Spartans 1612 62 +92 13 10.2 +2.8
Floriana 1431 57 -106 6 9.8 -3.8
Sliema Wanderers 1404 50 +19 9 10.0 -1.0
Marsaxlokk 1401 43 +46 10 7.9 +2.1
Birkirkara 1317 36 -14 6 8.3 -2.3
Naxxar Lions 1275 35 +4 7 8.3 -1.3
Hibernians 1258 35 -46 3 5.8 -2.8
Balzan 1284 34 +24 8 6.8 +1.2
Gzira United 1340 33 +10 5 6.0 -1.0
Mosta 1267 31 +58 8 5.0 +3.0
Santa Lucia 1201 30 -12 5 4.4 +0.6
Valletta 1197 27 -31 7 6.1 +0.9
Sirens 1086 16 +15 7 4.3 +2.7
Gudja United 917 6 -60 0 2.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL BIR FLO GU GU HS HIB MAR MOS NL SL SIR SW VAL
Balzan —
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
3.94
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
1.73
1-1-0
2.18
1-1-0
1.95
1-1-0
3.01
0-1-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.86
2-0-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.88
Birkirkara
1-1-0
3.26
 —
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
4.43
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
1.43
1-1-0
2.88
0-1-1
3.27
1-0-1
3.60
0-0-2
3.70
0-1-1
4.01
1-1-0
4.21
1-1-0
3.41
1-1-0
2.91
Floriana
1-1-0
3.85
2-0-0
2.89
 —
1-1-0
4.76
0-0-2
3.97
0-0-2
2.87
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.84
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-0
4.38
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
4.60
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.11
Gudja United
0-1-1
1.52
0-1-1
1.09
0-1-1
0.83
 —
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.48
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.36
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
1.39
Gzira United
0-1-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
1.48
2-0-0
3.78
 —
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
2.89
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.50
0-0-2
3.99
2-0-0
3.92
0-0-2
2.98
0-2-0
2.84
Hamrun Spartans
2-0-0
3.71
1-0-1
4.03
2-0-0
2.54
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
3.76
 —
1-1-0
4.22
1-0-1
4.01
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.37
2-0-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.58
0-2-0
4.09
1-1-0
4.04
Hibernians
0-1-1
3.24
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.27
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
2.51
0-1-1
1.28
 —
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
3.52
0-1-1
3.62
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
3.96
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.95
Marsaxlokk
0-1-1
3.48
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
1.60
1-1-0
3.72
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
1.45
1-1-0
3.28
 —
0-0-2
3.17
1-1-0
3.23
2-0-0
3.99
1-1-0
3.59
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.76
Mosta
0-1-1
2.40
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.10
1-1-0
3.53
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
1.29
1-1-0
1.91
2-0-0
2.25
 —
1-1-0
2.21
0-1-1
3.35
0-2-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.06
Naxxar Lions
1-1-0
2.30
2-0-0
1.74
0-1-1
1.12
2-0-0
4.00
0-1-1
1.92
0-0-2
1.13
1-1-0
1.81
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
3.21
 —
1-0-1
3.05
0-1-1
3.98
0-1-1
2.11
2-0-0
2.55
Santa Lucia
1-0-1
1.58
1-1-0
1.45
0-0-2
1.42
1-1-0
2.78
2-0-0
1.46
0-0-2
0.86
0-0-2
1.32
0-0-2
1.47
1-1-0
2.08
1-0-1
2.37
 —
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
1.57
Sirens
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
1.27
0-0-2
0.95
2-0-0
3.05
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
0.97
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
1.86
0-2-0
1.98
1-1-0
1.48
0-2-0
2.70
 —
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
1.86
Sliema Wanderers
1-1-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.71
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
2.43
0-2-0
1.37
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
4.05
2-0-0
4.29
 —
1-1-0
2.22
Valletta
1-1-0
2.53
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-2
1.37
2-0-0
4.08
0-2-0
2.57
0-1-1
1.43
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
3.35
0-0-2
2.86
0-1-1
3.88
2-0-0
3.57
0-1-1
3.21
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +10.1
Allowed 0.84 -9.6
Differential 0.96 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.44%8.24%7.97%4.95%3.02%0.55%35.16%
18.24%14.84%5.49%1.37%1.10%1.10%32.14%
27.97%5.49%2.75%1.37%0.55%0.27%18.41%
34.95%1.37%1.37%———7.69%
43.02%1.10%0.55%———4.67%
5+0.55%1.10%0.27%———1.92%
Total35.16%32.14%18.41%7.69%4.67%1.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.21 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 2.01
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%15.38%—7.69%——38.46%
111.54%15.38%3.85%——3.85%34.62%
211.54%—7.69%———19.23%
33.85%—————3.85%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total42.31%34.62%11.54%7.69%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.08 -0.08
SD 1.06 1.52 1.92
CV 1.06 1.41 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%—23.08%———34.62%
111.54%15.38%7.69%———34.62%
27.69%3.85%7.69%———19.23%
37.69%—3.85%———11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%19.23%42.31%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.04 +0.04
SD 1.02 0.92 1.51
CV 0.94 0.88 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.54%———3.85%15.38%
13.85%7.69%—3.85%——15.38%
226.92%3.85%3.85%———34.62%
319.23%—3.85%———23.08%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total57.69%26.92%7.69%3.85%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 0.73 +1.31
SD 1.31 1.19 2.11
CV 0.64 1.62 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%15.38%7.69%3.85%57.69%
1—11.54%11.54%——7.69%30.77%
2——3.85%—3.85%3.85%11.54%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.69%19.23%30.77%15.38%11.54%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.54 2.58 -2.04
SD 0.71 1.68 1.68
CV 1.31 0.65 —
Max 2 6 +0
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
111.54%19.23%11.54%———42.31%
2—3.85%—7.69%3.85%—15.38%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total26.92%42.31%15.38%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.27 +0.19
SD 1.42 1.19 1.98
CV 0.97 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%——3.85%——7.69%
115.38%15.38%3.85%———34.62%
27.69%11.54%————19.23%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
415.38%7.69%————23.08%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total50.00%42.31%3.85%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.35 0.62 +1.73
SD 1.72 0.75 2.03
CV 0.73 1.22 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%19.23%———42.31%
13.85%11.54%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
27.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
33.85%—7.69%———11.54%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total34.62%26.92%34.62%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.08 +0.04
SD 1.21 0.93 1.61
CV 1.09 0.87 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%11.54%————23.08%
17.69%15.38%7.69%———30.77%
211.54%7.69%—7.69%——26.92%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total38.46%42.31%11.54%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.88 +0.65
SD 1.30 0.91 1.47
CV 0.85 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.08%3.85%7.69%11.54%7.69%—53.85%
17.69%15.38%3.85%———26.92%
27.69%3.85%————11.54%
3—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%26.92%15.38%11.54%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.23 -0.50
SD 0.96 1.31 1.77
CV 1.32 1.06 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%—34.62%
1—15.38%3.85%—7.69%3.85%30.77%
211.54%11.54%————23.08%
3———————
47.69%—3.85%———11.54%
5+———————
Total34.62%34.62%11.54%3.85%11.54%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.35 -0.12
SD 1.27 1.50 2.16
CV 1.04 1.11 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%—38.46%
111.54%11.54%—7.69%3.85%—34.62%
23.85%11.54%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
3———————
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total26.92%30.77%11.54%19.23%11.54%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.58 -0.62
SD 1.00 1.39 1.94
CV 1.04 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%19.23%7.69%—50.00%
1—15.38%11.54%3.85%3.85%—34.62%
23.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%30.77%23.08%23.08%11.54%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.65 1.92 -1.27
SD 0.75 1.23 1.64
CV 1.14 0.64 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.23%7.69%7.69%———34.62%
123.08%11.54%————34.62%
27.69%3.85%————11.54%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total61.54%30.77%7.69%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 0.46 +0.85
SD 1.49 0.65 1.71
CV 1.14 1.40 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%15.38%—3.85%—38.46%
17.69%26.92%7.69%———42.31%
23.85%—3.85%———7.69%
37.69%—————7.69%
4———————
5+——3.85%———3.85%
Total23.08%42.31%30.77%—3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.19 -0.19
SD 1.20 0.94 1.67
CV 1.20 0.79 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hamrun Spartans 1612 62 53.31 +8.69 92.0% 43 44 49 53 57 64 67
Floriana 1431 57 50.67 +6.33 88.0% 38 41 47 50 55 59 63
Sliema Wanderers 1404 50 37.63 +12.37 100.0% 21 27 34 38 42 46 49
Marsaxlokk 1401 43 39.30 +3.70 74.0% 27 31 35 38 44 49 59
Gzira United 1340 33 37.28 -4.28 23.0% 24 27 34 37 41 46 51
Birkirkara 1317 36 42.26 -6.26 14.0% 27 32 38 43 46 51 60
Balzan 1284 34 33.76 +0.24 53.0% 20 23 29 34 37 44 47
Naxxar Lions 1275 35 31.09 +3.91 78.0% 16 22 28 30 35 40 44
Mosta 1267 31 30.52 +0.48 61.0% 19 21 26 30 35 40 50
Hibernians 1258 35 39.24 -4.24 28.0% 25 29 35 39 44 48 52
Santa Lucia 1201 30 22.43 +7.57 92.0% 9 14 18 22 26 34 39
Valletta 1197 27 36.66 -9.66 6.0% 24 27 32 37 40 46 53
Sirens 1086 16 22.11 -6.11 15.0% 7 13 18 22 26 32 39
Gudja United 917 6 19.56 -13.56 0.0% 8 11 16 19 23 28 35

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.14%
No Edge
32.42%28.02%39.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -24.86 Elo pts.
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.25 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Hamrun Spartans, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.61 * Some Luck: 4.61 to 6.91 * Lucky: 6.91 to 9.21 * Wild Swing: 9.21 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.30 points
Lucky
05.7614
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.29
Pinpoint
01.684
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
100.00%
Sliema Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
0.00%
Gudja United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Even
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 164.36
2.23
Strong Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
73%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Slight Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.73
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.13
Weak Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.07
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.82
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.130
Well Within Noise
00.1310.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Hamrun Spartans62.00%23.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%—————————
Floriana31.00%47.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%———————
Sliema Wanderers1.00%2.00%7.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%14.00%9.00%6.00%9.00%4.00%3.00%——
Marsaxlokk1.00%9.00%6.00%17.00%15.00%11.00%17.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%—1.00%——
Birkirkara5.00%7.00%29.00%19.00%8.00%11.00%8.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%—1.00%——
Hibernians—7.00%15.00%11.00%12.00%17.00%6.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%——
Naxxar Lions——2.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%7.00%12.00%15.00%21.00%22.00%7.00%2.00%2.00%
Balzan—1.00%5.00%5.00%6.00%9.00%16.00%6.00%14.00%18.00%9.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%
Gzira United—1.00%7.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%—
Mosta—1.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%5.00%7.00%15.00%10.00%31.00%11.00%6.00%—
Santa Lucia——1.00%———3.00%—4.00%8.00%9.00%26.00%25.00%24.00%
Valletta—2.00%4.00%7.00%15.00%13.00%14.00%17.00%13.00%5.00%6.00%4.00%——
Sirens————1.00%——2.00%3.00%5.00%8.00%26.00%29.00%26.00%
Gudja United———————1.00%1.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%32.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Direct relegation
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Birkirkara 99.00% 1.00%
Marsaxlokk 99.00% 1.00%
Hibernians 96.00% 4.00%
Sliema Wanderers 93.00% 7.00%
Gzira United 92.00% 8.00%
Valletta 90.00% 10.00%
Balzan 80.00% 20.00%
Naxxar Lions 67.00% 33.00%
Mosta 52.00% 48.00%
Santa Lucia 16.00% 84.00%
Sirens 11.00% 89.00%
Gudja United 5.00% 95.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-09-15 Naxxar Lions W 5-140.4 1226 1190 40.15% 29.63% 30.22%+0.06 +42.9 3
2023-09-15 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-540.4 1190 1226 30.22% 29.63% 40.15%-0.06 -42.8 0
2023-09-16 Balzan W 1-040.8 1406 1304 48.72% 28.92% 22.36%+0.47 +11.4 3
2023-09-16 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-140.8 1304 1406 22.36% 28.92% 48.72%-0.47 -11.4 0
2023-09-16 Hibernians L 0-442.0 1363 1307 42.90% 29.48% 27.62%+0.19 -66.5 0
2023-09-16 @ Gzira United W 4-042.0 1307 1363 27.62% 29.48% 42.90%-0.19 +66.5 3
2023-09-17 Floriana L 0-434.4 1191 1296 22.16% 28.89% 48.95%-0.78 -40.5 0
2023-09-17 @ Santa Lucia W 4-034.4 1296 1191 48.95% 28.89% 22.16%+0.78 +40.5 3
2023-09-17 Gudja United D 0-047.9 1320 1220 48.29% 28.97% 22.74%+0.44 -2.6 1
2023-09-17 @ Mosta D 0-047.9 1220 1320 22.74% 28.97% 48.29%-0.44 +2.6 1
2023-09-17 Sirens W 2-038.5 1331 1264 44.32% 29.38% 26.30%+0.25 +24.4 3
2023-09-17 @ Valletta L 0-238.5 1264 1331 26.30% 29.38% 44.32%-0.25 -24.4 0
2023-09-17 Sliema Wanderers W 1-036.4 1387 1183 59.31% 26.71% 13.98%+1.07 +7.6 3
2023-09-17 @ Birkirkara L 0-136.4 1183 1387 13.98% 26.71% 59.31%-1.07 -7.6 0
2023-09-22 Mosta D 1-153.0 1240 1317 25.13% 29.27% 45.60%-0.61 +1.8 1
2023-09-22 @ Sirens D 1-153.0 1317 1240 45.60% 29.27% 25.13%+0.61 -1.8 2
2023-09-23 Birkirkara W 2-045.0 1337 1395 27.40% 29.47% 43.13%-0.50 +35.2 6
2023-09-23 @ Floriana L 0-245.0 1395 1337 43.13% 29.47% 27.40%+0.50 -35.2 3
2023-09-23 Gzira United W 1-043.9 1292 1297 34.48% 29.73% 35.80%-0.18 +16.2 3
2023-09-23 @ Balzan L 0-143.9 1297 1292 35.80% 29.73% 34.48%+0.18 -16.2 0
2023-09-23 Hamrun Spartans L 0-429.9 1147 1418 10.31% 24.68% 65.00%-1.77 -20.0 0
2023-09-23 @ Naxxar Lions W 4-029.9 1418 1147 65.00% 24.68% 10.31%+1.77 +20.0 6
2023-09-23 Santa Lucia W 3-246.6 1374 1151 61.00% 26.18% 12.82%+1.18 +6.2 6
2023-09-23 @ Hibernians L 2-346.6 1151 1374 12.82% 26.18% 61.00%-1.18 -6.2 0
2023-09-24 Marsaxlokk D 1-152.7 1223 1269 28.93% 29.56% 41.51%-0.42 +1.1 2
2023-09-24 @ Gudja United D 1-152.7 1269 1223 41.51% 29.56% 28.93%+0.42 -1.1 4
2023-09-24 Valletta W 1-049.3 1176 1356 15.61% 27.34% 57.06%-1.23 +23.6 3
2023-09-24 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-149.3 1356 1176 57.06% 27.34% 15.61%+1.23 -23.6 3
2023-09-26 Balzan L 0-137.1 1145 1308 16.85% 27.73% 55.42%-1.13 -9.0 0
2023-09-26 @ Santa Lucia W 1-037.1 1308 1145 55.42% 27.73% 16.85%+1.13 +9.0 6
2023-09-26 Hibernians W 2-043.3 1372 1380 34.01% 29.72% 36.27%-0.20 +30.9 9
2023-09-26 @ Floriana L 0-243.3 1380 1372 36.27% 29.72% 34.01%+0.20 -30.9 6
2023-09-26 Naxxar Lions D 1-153.0 1281 1127 54.33% 27.97% 17.70%+0.77 -3.4 1
2023-09-26 @ Gzira United D 1-153.0 1127 1281 17.70% 27.97% 54.33%-0.77 +3.4 1
2023-09-27 Gudja United W 3-032.6 1438 1224 60.20% 26.44% 13.37%+1.13 +19.8 9
2023-09-27 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-332.6 1224 1438 13.37% 26.44% 60.20%-1.13 -19.8 2
2023-09-27 Sirens W 3-145.6 1268 1242 38.82% 29.67% 31.50%+0.01 +24.2 7
2023-09-27 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-345.6 1242 1268 31.50% 29.67% 38.82%-0.01 -24.2 1
2023-09-27 Sliema Wanderers L 0-343.4 1315 1199 50.25% 28.70% 21.05%+0.54 -58.0 2
2023-09-27 @ Mosta W 3-043.4 1199 1315 21.05% 28.70% 50.25%-0.54 +58.0 6
2023-09-27 Valletta D 1-154.0 1360 1332 39.00% 29.67% 31.34%+0.01 -0.7 4
2023-09-27 @ Birkirkara D 1-154.0 1332 1360 31.34% 29.67% 39.00%-0.01 +0.6 4
2023-09-30 Birkirkara L 0-144.4 1349 1359 33.73% 29.72% 36.55%-0.21 -15.6 6
2023-09-30 @ Hibernians W 1-044.4 1359 1349 36.55% 29.72% 33.73%+0.21 +15.6 7
2023-09-30 Mosta D 1-153.2 1333 1257 45.39% 29.29% 25.32%+0.30 -1.8 5
2023-09-30 @ Valletta D 1-153.2 1257 1333 25.32% 29.29% 45.39%-0.30 +1.8 3
2023-10-01 Floriana L 0-337.4 1317 1403 24.22% 29.17% 46.61%-0.66 -33.3 6
2023-10-01 @ Balzan W 3-037.4 1403 1317 46.61% 29.17% 24.22%+0.66 +33.3 12
2023-10-01 Gzira United L 1-637.9 1204 1277 25.63% 29.32% 45.05%-0.58 -46.4 2
2023-10-01 @ Gudja United W 6-137.9 1277 1204 45.05% 29.32% 25.63%+0.58 +46.4 4
2023-10-01 Hamrun Spartans L 0-431.5 1217 1458 11.83% 25.65% 62.52%-1.59 -23.0 1
2023-10-01 @ Sirens W 4-031.5 1458 1217 62.52% 25.65% 11.83%+1.59 +23.0 12
2023-10-01 Marsaxlokk L 0-142.0 1257 1292 30.37% 29.63% 40.00%-0.36 -14.4 6
2023-10-01 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-042.0 1292 1257 40.00% 29.63% 30.37%+0.36 +14.4 10
2023-10-01 Santa Lucia W 4-038.4 1131 1136 34.44% 29.73% 35.83%-0.18 +58.1 4
2023-10-01 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-438.4 1136 1131 35.83% 29.73% 34.44%+0.18 -58.1 0
2023-10-21 Gudja United D 0-047.3 1078 1158 24.79% 29.23% 45.98%-0.63 +2.1 1
2023-10-21 @ Santa Lucia D 0-047.3 1158 1078 45.98% 29.23% 24.79%+0.63 -2.1 3
2023-10-21 Mosta L 0-245.7 1374 1259 50.19% 28.71% 21.10%+0.54 -39.9 7
2023-10-21 @ Birkirkara W 2-045.7 1259 1374 21.10% 28.71% 50.19%-0.54 +39.9 6
2023-10-21 Naxxar Lions D 1-154.6 1436 1189 63.10% 25.43% 11.46%+1.33 -5.1 13
2023-10-21 @ Floriana D 1-154.6 1189 1436 11.46% 25.43% 63.10%-1.33 +5.1 5
2023-10-21 Sliema Wanderers D 1-155.6 1481 1243 62.31% 25.72% 11.97%+1.27 -4.9 13
2023-10-21 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-155.6 1243 1481 11.97% 25.72% 62.31%-1.27 +4.9 7
2023-10-22 Balzan L 0-243.4 1333 1284 41.98% 29.54% 28.48%+0.15 -34.4 6
2023-10-22 @ Hibernians W 2-043.4 1284 1333 28.48% 29.54% 41.98%-0.15 +34.4 9
2023-10-22 Sirens W 1-038.4 1324 1194 51.74% 28.47% 19.80%+0.62 +10.3 7
2023-10-22 @ Gzira United L 0-138.4 1194 1324 19.80% 28.47% 51.74%-0.62 -10.3 1
2023-10-22 Valletta L 0-143.0 1306 1331 31.68% 29.68% 38.64%-0.30 -14.9 10
2023-10-22 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-043.0 1331 1306 38.64% 29.68% 31.68%+0.30 +14.9 8
2023-10-28 Hamrun Spartans L 1-248.1 1346 1476 19.74% 28.45% 51.81%-0.93 -9.7 8
2023-10-28 @ Valletta W 2-148.1 1476 1346 51.81% 28.45% 19.74%+0.93 +9.7 16
2023-10-28 Hibernians D 0-047.8 1194 1299 22.14% 28.89% 48.97%-0.78 +2.7 6
2023-10-28 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-047.8 1299 1194 48.97% 28.89% 22.14%+0.78 -2.7 7
2023-10-28 Marsaxlokk W 3-254.4 1299 1291 36.20% 29.72% 34.07%-0.10 +14.0 9
2023-10-28 @ Mosta L 2-354.4 1291 1299 34.07% 29.72% 36.20%+0.10 -14.0 10
2023-10-29 Birkirkara L 0-339.4 1319 1335 32.88% 29.71% 37.41%-0.24 -41.8 9
2023-10-29 @ Balzan W 3-039.4 1335 1319 37.41% 29.71% 32.88%+0.24 +41.8 10
2023-10-29 Floriana D 1-154.6 1156 1431 10.09% 24.53% 65.38%-1.80 +5.5 4
2023-10-29 @ Gudja United D 1-154.6 1431 1156 65.38% 24.53% 10.09%+1.80 -5.5 14
2023-10-29 Gzira United W 1-047.0 1248 1334 24.14% 29.16% 46.70%-0.66 +19.9 10
2023-10-29 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-147.0 1334 1248 46.70% 29.16% 24.14%+0.66 -19.9 7
2023-10-29 Santa Lucia D 0-047.4 1184 1080 48.91% 28.89% 22.19%+0.48 -2.7 2
2023-10-29 @ Sirens D 0-047.4 1080 1184 22.19% 28.89% 48.91%-0.48 +2.7 2
2023-11-04 Marsaxlokk L 0-245.4 1376 1277 48.26% 28.98% 22.76%+0.44 -38.6 10
2023-11-04 @ Birkirkara W 2-045.4 1277 1376 22.76% 28.98% 48.26%-0.44 +38.6 13
2023-11-04 Valletta D 1-153.6 1314 1336 32.02% 29.69% 38.29%-0.28 +0.5 8
2023-11-04 @ Gzira United D 1-153.6 1336 1314 38.29% 29.69% 32.02%+0.28 -0.5 9
2023-11-05 Gudja United W 1-038.0 1296 1161 52.38% 28.35% 19.26%+0.66 +10.1 10
2023-11-05 @ Hibernians L 0-138.0 1161 1296 19.26% 28.35% 52.38%-0.66 -10.1 4
2023-11-05 Mosta D 1-156.5 1485 1313 56.30% 27.52% 16.18%+0.88 -3.8 17
2023-11-05 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-156.5 1313 1485 16.18% 27.52% 56.30%-0.88 +3.8 10
2023-11-05 Naxxar Lions L 1-252.4 1277 1197 45.95% 29.23% 24.81%+0.33 -18.5 9
2023-11-05 @ Balzan W 2-152.4 1197 1277 24.81% 29.23% 45.95%-0.33 +18.5 9
2023-11-05 Sirens W 3-031.3 1426 1181 62.85% 25.53% 11.62%+1.31 +17.3 17
2023-11-05 @ Floriana L 0-331.3 1181 1426 11.62% 25.53% 62.85%-1.31 -17.3 2
2023-11-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-136.3 1082 1268 15.24% 27.21% 57.55%-1.26 -8.2 2
2023-11-05 @ Santa Lucia W 1-036.3 1268 1082 57.55% 27.21% 15.24%+1.26 +8.2 13
2023-11-25 Balzan D 2-258.7 1151 1258 21.92% 28.85% 49.22%-0.79 +1.8 5
2023-11-25 @ Gudja United D 2-258.7 1258 1151 49.22% 28.85% 21.92%+0.79 -1.8 10
2023-11-25 Floriana L 0-236.3 1276 1443 16.60% 27.66% 55.75%-1.15 -16.7 13
2023-11-25 @ Sliema Wanderers W 2-036.3 1443 1276 55.75% 27.66% 16.60%+1.15 +16.7 20
2023-11-25 Hamrun Spartans L 0-140.3 1316 1482 16.70% 27.69% 55.61%-1.14 -8.9 13
2023-11-25 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-040.3 1482 1316 55.61% 27.69% 16.70%+1.14 +8.9 20
2023-11-25 Hibernians L 1-243.9 1164 1306 18.63% 28.21% 53.16%-1.00 -9.2 2
2023-11-25 @ Sirens W 2-143.9 1306 1164 53.16% 28.21% 18.63%+1.00 +9.2 13
2023-11-26 Birkirkara W 2-045.4 1215 1338 20.40% 28.59% 51.01%-0.88 +40.4 12
2023-11-26 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-245.4 1338 1215 51.01% 28.59% 20.40%+0.88 -40.4 10
2023-11-26 Gzira United L 0-339.9 1317 1315 35.45% 29.73% 34.82%-0.14 -44.1 10
2023-11-26 @ Mosta W 3-039.9 1315 1317 34.82% 29.73% 35.45%+0.14 +44.1 11
2023-11-26 Santa Lucia D 1-153.9 1336 1074 64.28% 24.98% 10.74%+1.42 -5.3 10
2023-11-26 @ Valletta D 1-153.9 1074 1336 10.74% 24.98% 64.28%-1.42 +5.3 3
2023-12-02 Hamrun Spartans W 3-048.2 1297 1491 14.70% 27.00% 58.30%-1.30 +66.0 13
2023-12-02 @ Birkirkara L 0-348.2 1491 1297 58.30% 27.00% 14.70%+1.30 -66.0 20
2023-12-02 Mosta W 1-049.1 1080 1273 14.70% 27.00% 58.30%-1.30 +24.1 6
2023-12-02 @ Santa Lucia L 0-149.1 1273 1080 58.30% 27.00% 14.70%+1.30 -24.1 10
2023-12-02 Sirens W 3-034.9 1256 1155 48.56% 28.94% 22.50%+0.46 +31.4 13
2023-12-02 @ Balzan L 0-334.9 1155 1256 22.50% 28.94% 48.56%-0.46 -31.4 2
2023-12-03 Gudja United W 2-145.1 1256 1153 48.70% 28.92% 22.38%+0.47 +10.8 15
2023-12-03 @ Naxxar Lions L 1-245.1 1153 1256 22.38% 28.92% 48.70%-0.47 -10.8 5
2023-12-03 Marsaxlokk L 2-453.4 1359 1307 42.28% 29.52% 28.19%+0.16 -26.8 11
2023-12-03 @ Gzira United W 4-253.4 1307 1359 28.19% 29.52% 42.28%-0.16 +26.8 16
2023-12-03 Sliema Wanderers L 0-145.9 1316 1259 42.92% 29.48% 27.60%+0.19 -18.6 13
2023-12-03 @ Hibernians W 1-045.9 1259 1316 27.60% 29.48% 42.92%-0.19 +18.6 16
2023-12-03 Valletta W 1-041.3 1460 1330 51.74% 28.47% 19.79%+0.62 +10.3 23
2023-12-03 @ Floriana L 0-141.3 1330 1460 19.79% 28.47% 51.74%-0.62 -10.3 10
2023-12-09 Balzan W 1-044.0 1278 1288 33.71% 29.72% 36.57%-0.21 +16.5 19
2023-12-09 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-144.0 1288 1278 36.57% 29.72% 33.71%+0.21 -16.5 13
2023-12-09 Floriana L 0-333.1 1249 1470 12.90% 26.21% 60.89%-1.47 -19.2 10
2023-12-09 @ Mosta W 3-033.1 1470 1249 60.89% 26.21% 12.90%+1.47 +19.2 26
2023-12-09 Hibernians L 0-242.3 1320 1297 38.42% 29.69% 31.90%-0.01 -32.2 10
2023-12-09 @ Valletta W 2-042.3 1297 1320 31.90% 29.69% 38.42%+0.01 +32.2 16
2023-12-10 Naxxar Lions D 1-152.9 1124 1266 18.57% 28.19% 53.24%-1.00 +3.2 3
2023-12-10 @ Sirens D 1-152.9 1266 1124 53.24% 28.19% 18.57%+1.00 -3.2 16
2023-12-10 Santa Lucia W 3-031.0 1334 1104 61.67% 25.95% 12.38%+1.23 +18.4 19
2023-12-10 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-331.0 1104 1334 12.38% 25.95% 61.67%-1.23 -18.4 6
2023-12-13 Birkirkara D 1-153.7 1142 1363 12.91% 26.22% 60.87%-1.47 +4.7 6
2023-12-13 @ Gudja United D 1-153.7 1363 1142 60.87% 26.22% 12.91%+1.47 -4.7 14
2023-12-13 Gzira United W 2-148.0 1425 1332 47.51% 29.07% 23.42%+0.41 +11.2 23
2023-12-13 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-248.0 1332 1425 23.42% 29.07% 47.51%-0.41 -11.2 11
2023-12-16 Gzira United W 3-253.9 1359 1321 40.47% 29.61% 29.91%+0.08 +12.8 17
2023-12-16 @ Birkirkara L 2-353.9 1321 1359 29.91% 29.61% 40.47%-0.08 -12.8 11
2023-12-16 Sirens L 1-249.8 1147 1127 38.00% 29.70% 32.30%-0.03 -16.0 6
2023-12-16 @ Gudja United W 2-149.8 1127 1147 32.30% 29.70% 38.00%+0.03 +16.0 6
2023-12-16 Valletta D 0-047.8 1271 1288 32.79% 29.71% 37.50%-0.25 +0.4 14
2023-12-16 @ Balzan D 0-047.8 1288 1271 37.50% 29.71% 32.79%+0.25 -0.4 11
2023-12-17 Hamrun Spartans L 1-336.1 1085 1436 7.20% 21.89% 70.91%-2.25 -6.1 6
2023-12-17 @ Santa Lucia W 3-136.1 1436 1085 70.91% 21.89% 7.20%+2.25 +6.1 26
2023-12-17 Marsaxlokk W 3-253.3 1489 1352 52.58% 28.32% 19.11%+0.67 +9.0 29
2023-12-17 @ Floriana L 2-353.3 1352 1489 19.11% 28.32% 52.58%-0.67 -9.0 19
2023-12-17 Mosta D 0-048.0 1329 1229 48.37% 28.96% 22.66%+0.45 -2.6 17
2023-12-17 @ Hibernians D 0-048.0 1229 1329 22.66% 28.96% 48.37%-0.45 +2.6 11
2023-12-17 Sliema Wanderers L 1-443.0 1263 1294 30.83% 29.65% 39.51%-0.33 -33.7 16
2023-12-17 @ Naxxar Lions W 4-143.0 1294 1263 39.51% 29.65% 30.83%+0.33 +33.7 22
2024-01-06 Floriana W 1-052.9 1442 1498 27.62% 29.48% 42.90%-0.49 +18.6 29
2024-01-06 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-152.9 1498 1442 42.90% 29.48% 27.62%+0.49 -18.6 29
2024-01-06 Santa Lucia L 1-255.9 1308 1079 61.54% 25.99% 12.46%+1.22 -23.8 11
2024-01-06 @ Gzira United W 2-155.9 1079 1308 12.46% 25.99% 61.54%-1.22 +23.8 9
2024-01-07 Balzan L 0-239.1 1232 1272 29.68% 29.60% 40.71%-0.39 -26.8 11
2024-01-07 @ Mosta W 2-039.1 1272 1232 40.71% 29.60% 29.68%+0.39 +26.8 17
2024-01-07 Birkirkara L 1-241.5 1143 1372 12.47% 26.00% 61.54%-1.52 -6.4 6
2024-01-07 @ Sirens W 2-141.5 1372 1143 61.54% 26.00% 12.47%+1.52 +6.4 20
2024-01-07 Gudja United W 2-033.6 1328 1131 58.67% 26.90% 14.43%+1.03 +14.7 25
2024-01-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-233.6 1131 1328 14.43% 26.90% 58.67%-1.03 -14.7 6
2024-01-07 Hibernians D 1-153.8 1343 1327 37.53% 29.71% 32.77%-0.05 -0.4 20
2024-01-07 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-153.8 1327 1343 32.77% 29.71% 37.53%+0.05 +0.4 18
2024-01-07 Naxxar Lions L 1-251.7 1288 1230 43.13% 29.47% 27.40%+0.20 -17.6 11
2024-01-07 @ Valletta W 2-151.7 1230 1288 27.40% 29.47% 43.13%-0.20 +17.6 19
2024-01-20 Hamrun Spartans L 1-247.2 1327 1460 19.40% 28.38% 52.21%-0.95 -9.6 18
2024-01-20 @ Hibernians W 2-147.2 1460 1327 52.21% 28.38% 19.40%+0.95 +9.6 32
2024-01-20 Mosta D 0-047.4 1247 1205 41.00% 29.59% 29.41%+0.10 -1.1 20
2024-01-20 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-047.4 1205 1247 29.41% 29.59% 41.00%-0.10 +1.1 12
2024-01-20 Sliema Wanderers L 0-135.9 1136 1343 13.83% 26.64% 59.53%-1.38 -7.5 6
2024-01-20 @ Sirens W 1-035.9 1343 1136 59.53% 26.64% 13.83%+1.38 +7.5 28
2024-01-20 Valletta L 0-333.1 1116 1270 17.66% 27.96% 54.38%-1.07 -25.6 6
2024-01-20 @ Gudja United W 3-033.1 1270 1116 54.38% 27.96% 17.66%+1.07 +25.6 14
2024-01-21 Gzira United L 0-151.9 1479 1284 58.51% 26.94% 14.55%+1.02 -24.2 29
2024-01-21 @ Floriana W 1-051.9 1284 1479 14.55% 26.94% 58.51%-1.02 +24.2 14
2024-01-21 Marsaxlokk D 0-048.4 1299 1343 29.09% 29.57% 41.34%-0.41 +1.2 18
2024-01-21 @ Balzan D 0-048.4 1343 1299 41.34% 29.57% 29.09%+0.41 -1.2 21
2024-01-21 Santa Lucia L 1-256.8 1378 1103 65.37% 24.53% 10.10%+1.50 -25.1 20
2024-01-21 @ Birkirkara W 2-156.8 1103 1378 10.10% 24.53% 65.37%-1.50 +25.0 12
2024-01-27 Hamrun Spartans L 1-736.7 1300 1470 16.34% 27.58% 56.08%-1.17 -37.8 18
2024-01-27 @ Balzan W 7-136.7 1470 1300 56.08% 27.58% 16.34%+1.17 +37.8 35
2024-01-27 Santa Lucia W 2-030.9 1455 1128 69.29% 22.72% 7.99%+1.81 +8.0 32
2024-01-27 @ Floriana L 0-230.9 1128 1455 7.99% 22.72% 69.29%-1.81 -8.0 12
2024-01-28 Birkirkara D 0-049.0 1350 1353 34.75% 29.73% 35.52%-0.16 +0.1 29
2024-01-28 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.0 1353 1350 35.52% 29.73% 34.75%+0.16 -0.1 21
2024-01-28 Gzira United W 3-254.6 1317 1308 36.45% 29.72% 33.83%-0.09 +13.9 21
2024-01-28 @ Hibernians L 2-354.6 1308 1317 33.83% 29.72% 36.45%+0.09 -14.0 14
2024-01-28 Marsaxlokk D 0-048.2 1246 1342 23.09% 29.02% 47.89%-0.72 +2.5 21
2024-01-28 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-048.2 1342 1246 47.89% 29.02% 23.09%+0.72 -2.5 22
2024-01-28 Mosta L 0-138.4 1091 1206 21.07% 28.71% 50.22%-0.84 -10.9 6
2024-01-28 @ Gudja United W 1-038.4 1206 1091 50.22% 28.71% 21.07%+0.84 +10.9 15
2024-01-28 Valletta L 0-332.7 1129 1296 16.62% 27.66% 55.72%-1.15 -24.3 6
2024-01-28 @ Sirens W 3-032.7 1296 1129 55.72% 27.66% 16.62%+1.15 +24.3 17
2024-02-03 Floriana L 1-248.6 1353 1463 21.58% 28.80% 49.62%-0.81 -10.5 21
2024-02-03 @ Birkirkara W 2-148.6 1463 1353 49.62% 28.80% 21.58%+0.81 +10.5 35
2024-02-03 Gudja United W 2-140.5 1339 1080 64.13% 25.04% 10.83%+1.40 +5.5 25
2024-02-03 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-240.5 1080 1339 10.83% 25.04% 64.13%-1.40 -5.5 6
2024-02-03 Sirens D 0-047.5 1217 1105 49.87% 28.76% 21.37%+0.52 -2.9 16
2024-02-03 @ Mosta D 0-047.5 1105 1217 21.37% 28.76% 49.87%-0.52 +2.9 7
2024-02-03 Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.8 1320 1350 30.92% 29.66% 39.42%-0.33 +0.7 18
2024-02-03 @ Valletta D 1-153.8 1350 1320 39.42% 29.66% 30.92%+0.33 -0.7 30
2024-02-04 Balzan D 1-152.9 1294 1262 39.69% 29.65% 30.66%+0.04 -0.8 15
2024-02-04 @ Gzira United D 1-152.9 1262 1294 30.66% 29.65% 39.69%-0.04 +0.8 19
2024-02-04 Hibernians L 0-233.1 1120 1331 13.50% 26.50% 60.00%-1.41 -13.8 12
2024-02-04 @ Santa Lucia W 2-033.1 1331 1120 60.00% 26.50% 13.50%+1.41 +13.8 24
2024-02-04 Naxxar Lions W 4-137.7 1508 1248 64.10% 25.05% 10.85%+1.40 +13.6 38
2024-02-04 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-437.7 1248 1508 10.85% 25.05% 64.10%-1.40 -13.6 21
2024-02-09 Birkirkara L 0-143.4 1321 1342 32.09% 29.69% 38.22%-0.28 -15.0 18
2024-02-09 @ Valletta W 1-043.4 1342 1321 38.22% 29.69% 32.09%+0.28 +15.0 24
2024-02-10 Floriana L 0-239.4 1345 1474 19.85% 28.48% 51.67%-0.92 -19.5 24
2024-02-10 @ Hibernians W 2-039.4 1474 1345 51.67% 28.48% 19.85%+0.92 +19.5 38
2024-02-10 Gzira United L 0-141.0 1235 1294 27.32% 29.46% 43.22%-0.50 -13.3 21
2024-02-10 @ Naxxar Lions W 1-041.0 1294 1235 43.22% 29.46% 27.32%+0.50 +13.3 18
2024-02-10 Mosta D 0-048.2 1349 1214 52.41% 28.35% 19.24%+0.66 -3.4 31
2024-02-10 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-048.2 1214 1349 19.24% 28.35% 52.41%-0.66 +3.4 17
2024-02-10 Santa Lucia L 0-148.3 1263 1106 54.68% 27.90% 17.42%+0.79 -22.8 19
2024-02-10 @ Balzan W 1-048.3 1106 1263 17.42% 27.90% 54.68%-0.79 +22.8 15
2024-02-11 Hamrun Spartans L 0-426.5 1074 1521 4.67% 18.33% 77.00%-2.82 -8.1 6
2024-02-11 @ Gudja United W 4-026.5 1521 1074 77.00% 18.33% 4.67%+2.82 +8.1 41
2024-02-11 Marsaxlokk D 1-153.7 1107 1345 11.99% 25.73% 62.28%-1.57 +4.9 8
2024-02-11 @ Sirens D 1-153.7 1345 1107 62.28% 25.73% 11.99%+1.57 -4.9 26
2024-02-17 Hibernians D 1-153.9 1357 1326 39.60% 29.65% 30.75%+0.04 -0.8 25
2024-02-17 @ Birkirkara D 1-153.9 1326 1357 30.75% 29.65% 39.60%-0.04 +0.8 25
2024-02-17 Naxxar Lions W 1-046.5 1129 1222 23.43% 29.07% 47.50%-0.70 +20.2 18
2024-02-17 @ Santa Lucia L 0-146.5 1222 1129 47.50% 29.07% 23.43%+0.70 -20.2 21
2024-02-17 Sliema Wanderers L 1-250.4 1340 1346 34.26% 29.72% 36.01%-0.19 -14.8 26
2024-02-17 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-150.4 1346 1340 36.01% 29.72% 34.26%+0.19 +14.8 34
2024-02-17 Valletta W 1-046.8 1218 1306 23.95% 29.13% 46.92%-0.67 +20.0 20
2024-02-17 @ Mosta L 0-146.8 1306 1218 46.92% 29.13% 23.95%+0.67 -20.0 18
2024-02-18 Balzan D 2-261.9 1493 1240 63.61% 25.24% 11.15%+1.37 -3.8 39
2024-02-18 @ Floriana D 2-261.9 1240 1493 11.15% 25.24% 63.61%-1.37 +3.8 20
2024-02-18 Gudja United W 3-030.6 1307 1066 62.57% 25.63% 11.80%+1.29 +17.5 21
2024-02-18 @ Gzira United L 0-330.6 1066 1307 11.80% 25.63% 62.57%-1.29 -17.5 6
2024-02-18 Sirens W 2-029.5 1529 1112 75.22% 19.43% 5.35%+2.35 +5.0 44
2024-02-18 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-229.5 1112 1529 5.35% 19.43% 75.22%-2.35 -5.0 8
2024-02-24 Birkirkara L 0-236.6 1238 1357 20.76% 28.65% 50.59%-0.86 -20.2 20
2024-02-24 @ Mosta W 2-036.6 1357 1238 50.59% 28.65% 20.76%+0.86 +20.2 28
2024-02-24 Hibernians D 0-048.0 1244 1326 24.52% 29.20% 46.28%-0.64 +2.2 21
2024-02-24 @ Balzan D 0-048.0 1326 1244 46.28% 29.20% 24.52%+0.64 -2.2 26
2024-02-25 Floriana L 0-331.1 1201 1489 9.53% 24.10% 66.37%-1.87 -14.0 21
2024-02-25 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-031.1 1489 1201 66.37% 24.10% 9.53%+1.87 +14.0 42
2024-02-25 Gzira United L 0-430.8 1107 1324 13.16% 26.34% 60.51%-1.45 -25.5 8
2024-02-25 @ Sirens W 4-030.8 1324 1107 60.51% 26.34% 13.16%+1.45 +25.5 24
2024-02-25 Hamrun Spartans D 0-054.0 1361 1534 16.10% 27.50% 56.41%-1.19 +4.3 35
2024-02-25 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-054.0 1534 1361 56.41% 27.50% 16.10%+1.19 -4.3 45
2024-02-25 Marsaxlokk L 0-239.6 1286 1325 29.72% 29.61% 40.68%-0.39 -26.8 18
2024-02-25 @ Valletta W 2-039.6 1325 1286 40.68% 29.61% 29.72%+0.39 +26.8 29
2024-02-25 Santa Lucia L 0-434.2 1049 1149 22.59% 28.95% 48.46%-0.75 -41.2 6
2024-02-25 @ Gudja United W 4-034.2 1149 1049 48.46% 28.95% 22.59%+0.75 +41.1 21
2024-03-02 Balzan D 1-153.7 1377 1246 51.94% 28.43% 19.63%+0.63 -3.0 29
2024-03-02 @ Birkirkara D 1-153.7 1246 1377 19.63% 28.43% 51.94%-0.63 +3.0 22
2024-03-02 Naxxar Lions L 0-245.6 1324 1187 52.60% 28.31% 19.09%+0.67 -41.5 26
2024-03-02 @ Hibernians W 2-045.6 1187 1324 19.09% 28.31% 52.60%-0.67 +41.5 24
2024-03-02 Sirens D 1-152.5 1190 1082 49.39% 28.83% 21.78%+0.50 -2.5 22
2024-03-02 @ Santa Lucia D 1-152.5 1082 1190 21.78% 28.83% 49.39%-0.50 +2.5 9
2024-03-02 Valletta D 1-157.1 1530 1259 65.08% 24.65% 10.27%+1.48 -5.4 46
2024-03-02 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-157.1 1259 1530 10.27% 24.65% 65.08%-1.48 +5.4 19
2024-03-03 Gudja United W 5-128.8 1503 1007 79.71% 16.55% 3.74%+2.82 +5.2 45
2024-03-03 @ Floriana L 1-528.8 1007 1503 3.74% 16.55% 79.71%-2.82 -5.2 6
2024-03-03 Mosta L 1-254.4 1352 1217 52.33% 28.36% 19.31%+0.66 -20.7 29
2024-03-03 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-154.4 1217 1352 19.31% 28.36% 52.33%-0.66 +20.7 23
2024-03-03 Sliema Wanderers L 0-241.7 1350 1365 32.99% 29.71% 37.30%-0.24 -28.9 24
2024-03-03 @ Gzira United W 2-041.7 1365 1350 37.30% 29.71% 32.99%+0.24 +28.9 38
2024-03-08 Balzan D 1-152.6 1229 1249 32.32% 29.70% 37.98%-0.27 +0.5 25
2024-03-08 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-152.6 1249 1229 37.98% 29.70% 32.32%+0.27 -0.5 23
2024-03-09 Birkirkara D 0-049.1 1331 1374 29.32% 29.59% 41.09%-0.40 +1.1 30
2024-03-09 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-049.1 1374 1331 41.09% 29.59% 29.32%+0.40 -1.1 30
2024-03-09 Floriana L 0-327.4 1084 1509 5.18% 19.17% 75.65%-2.69 -7.0 9
2024-03-09 @ Sirens W 3-027.4 1509 1084 75.65% 19.17% 5.18%+2.69 +7.0 48
2024-03-10 Gzira United D 1-153.1 1264 1321 27.53% 29.48% 42.99%-0.49 +1.3 20
2024-03-10 @ Valletta D 1-153.1 1321 1264 42.99% 29.48% 27.53%+0.49 -1.3 25
2024-03-10 Hamrun Spartans L 0-431.7 1238 1525 9.58% 24.14% 66.28%-1.86 -18.5 23
2024-03-10 @ Mosta W 4-031.7 1525 1238 66.28% 24.14% 9.58%+1.86 +18.5 49
2024-03-10 Hibernians L 0-329.5 1002 1283 9.85% 24.35% 65.80%-1.83 -14.6 6
2024-03-10 @ Gudja United W 3-029.5 1283 1002 65.80% 24.35% 9.85%+1.83 +14.5 29
2024-03-10 Santa Lucia W 3-139.8 1394 1188 59.53% 26.64% 13.83%+1.09 +12.2 41
2024-03-10 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-339.8 1188 1394 13.83% 26.64% 59.53%-1.09 -12.2 22
2024-03-14 Naxxar Lions L 0-246.2 1373 1229 53.29% 28.18% 18.52%+0.71 -42.0 30
2024-03-14 @ Birkirkara W 2-046.2 1229 1373 18.52% 28.18% 53.29%-0.71 +42.0 28
2024-03-16 Marsaxlokk L 1-261.0 1543 1332 59.95% 26.51% 13.54%+1.11 -23.3 49
2024-03-16 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-161.0 1332 1543 13.54% 26.51% 59.95%-1.11 +23.3 33
2024-03-16 Sirens W 2-141.4 1297 1077 60.76% 26.25% 12.98%+1.17 +6.6 32
2024-03-16 @ Hibernians L 1-241.4 1077 1297 12.98% 26.25% 60.76%-1.17 -6.6 9
2024-03-16 Sliema Wanderers W 2-043.1 1516 1406 49.49% 28.81% 21.69%+0.51 +21.0 51
2024-03-16 @ Floriana L 0-243.1 1406 1516 21.69% 28.81% 49.49%-0.51 -21.0 41
2024-03-16 Valletta W 2-044.0 1176 1266 23.71% 29.11% 47.18%-0.69 +37.8 25
2024-03-16 @ Santa Lucia L 0-244.0 1266 1176 47.18% 29.11% 23.71%+0.69 -37.8 20
2024-03-17 Gudja United W 2-031.6 1248 988 64.23% 25.00% 10.77%+1.41 +11.0 26
2024-03-17 @ Balzan L 0-231.6 988 1248 10.77% 25.00% 64.23%-1.41 -11.0 6
2024-03-17 Mosta W 2-145.5 1320 1220 48.40% 28.96% 22.64%+0.45 +10.9 28
2024-03-17 @ Gzira United L 1-245.5 1220 1320 22.64% 28.96% 48.40%-0.45 -10.9 23
2024-04-06 Balzan L 1-436.9 1071 1259 15.00% 27.12% 57.89%-1.28 -18.7 9
2024-04-06 @ Sirens W 4-136.9 1259 1071 57.89% 27.12% 15.00%+1.28 +18.7 29
2024-04-06 Floriana L 0-233.4 1228 1537 8.67% 23.38% 67.95%-2.00 -8.7 20
2024-04-06 @ Valletta W 2-033.4 1537 1228 67.95% 23.38% 8.67%+2.00 +8.7 54
2024-04-06 Gzira United D 1-153.9 1356 1331 38.68% 29.68% 31.64%+0.00 -0.6 34
2024-04-06 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-153.9 1331 1356 31.64% 29.68% 38.68%+0.00 +0.6 29
2024-04-06 Naxxar Lions L 2-440.3 977 1271 9.24% 23.87% 66.89%-1.91 -7.2 6
2024-04-06 @ Gudja United W 4-240.3 1271 977 66.89% 23.87% 9.24%+1.91 +7.2 31
2024-04-07 Birkirkara W 2-038.4 1520 1331 57.93% 27.10% 14.96%+0.98 +15.2 52
2024-04-07 @ Hamrun Spartans L 0-238.4 1331 1520 14.96% 27.10% 57.93%-0.98 -15.2 30
2024-04-07 Hibernians D 0-049.0 1385 1304 46.11% 29.22% 24.67%+0.34 -2.1 42
2024-04-07 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-049.0 1304 1385 24.67% 29.22% 46.11%-0.34 +2.1 33
2024-04-07 Santa Lucia D 1-152.5 1209 1213 34.47% 29.73% 35.80%-0.18 +0.1 24
2024-04-07 @ Mosta D 1-152.5 1213 1209 35.80% 29.73% 34.47%+0.18 -0.1 26
2024-04-12 Marsaxlokk L 0-334.0 1213 1355 18.66% 28.22% 53.12%-1.00 -26.9 26
2024-04-12 @ Santa Lucia W 3-034.0 1355 1213 53.12% 28.22% 18.66%+1.00 +26.9 37
2024-04-13 Hamrun Spartans L 0-141.0 1331 1535 13.98% 26.71% 59.31%-1.37 -7.6 29
2024-04-13 @ Gzira United W 1-041.0 1535 1331 59.31% 26.71% 13.98%+1.37 +7.6 55
2024-04-13 Mosta W 4-030.4 1545 1209 69.94% 22.40% 7.67%+1.86 +14.4 57
2024-04-13 @ Floriana L 0-430.4 1209 1545 7.67% 22.40% 69.94%-1.86 -14.4 24
2024-04-14 Gudja United W 2-029.7 1316 969 70.61% 22.05% 7.34%+1.92 +7.2 33
2024-04-14 @ Birkirkara L 0-229.7 969 1316 7.34% 22.05% 70.61%-1.92 -7.2 6
2024-04-14 Sirens L 1-255.8 1279 1052 61.35% 26.06% 12.59%+1.21 -23.8 31
2024-04-14 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-155.8 1052 1279 12.59% 26.06% 61.35%-1.21 +23.8 12
2024-04-14 Sliema Wanderers D 1-153.9 1278 1383 22.13% 28.88% 48.99%-0.78 +2.4 30
2024-04-14 @ Balzan D 1-153.9 1383 1278 48.99% 28.88% 22.13%+0.78 -2.4 43
2024-04-14 Valletta D 2-258.9 1306 1219 46.83% 29.14% 24.03%+0.37 -1.5 34
2024-04-14 @ Hibernians D 2-258.9 1219 1306 24.03% 29.14% 46.83%-0.37 +1.5 21
2024-04-20 Birkirkara D 0-048.4 1324 1323 35.26% 29.73% 35.01%-0.14 -0.0 30
2024-04-20 @ Gzira United D 0-048.4 1323 1324 35.01% 29.73% 35.26%+0.14 +0.0 34
2024-04-20 Floriana W 1-056.5 1382 1560 15.78% 27.39% 56.83%-1.21 +23.6 40
2024-04-20 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-156.5 1560 1382 56.83% 27.39% 15.78%+1.21 -23.6 57
2024-04-20 Naxxar Lions D 0-048.6 1381 1255 51.38% 28.53% 20.09%+0.60 -3.2 44
2024-04-20 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-048.6 1255 1381 20.09% 28.53% 51.38%-0.60 +3.2 32
2024-04-20 Santa Lucia W 4-135.1 1543 1186 71.31% 21.68% 7.02%+1.98 +8.4 58
2024-04-20 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-435.1 1186 1543 7.02% 21.68% 71.31%-1.98 -8.4 26
2024-04-21 Balzan W 1-045.7 1220 1281 27.15% 29.45% 43.40%-0.51 +18.8 24
2024-04-21 @ Valletta L 0-145.7 1281 1220 43.40% 29.45% 27.15%+0.51 -18.8 30
2024-04-21 Gudja United W 2-035.8 1076 962 49.99% 28.74% 21.27%+0.53 +20.7 15
2024-04-21 @ Sirens L 0-235.8 962 1076 21.27% 28.74% 49.99%-0.53 -20.7 6
2024-04-21 Hibernians W 3-150.8 1194 1305 21.62% 28.80% 49.58%-0.81 +34.2 27
2024-04-21 @ Mosta L 1-350.8 1305 1194 49.58% 28.80% 21.62%+0.81 -34.2 34
2024-04-27 Hamrun Spartans L 0-550.8 1536 1551 33.02% 29.71% 37.27%-0.24 -67.6 57
2024-04-27 @ Floriana W 5-050.8 1551 1536 37.27% 29.71% 33.02%+0.24 +67.6 61
2024-04-27 Marsaxlokk L 0-236.7 1270 1406 19.25% 28.35% 52.40%-0.96 -19.0 34
2024-04-27 @ Hibernians W 2-036.7 1406 1270 52.40% 28.35% 19.25%+0.96 +19.0 43
2024-04-27 Sliema Wanderers L 0-626.4 941 1378 4.91% 18.73% 76.35%-2.76 -12.6 6
2024-04-27 @ Gudja United W 6-026.4 1378 941 76.35% 18.73% 4.91%+2.76 +12.6 47
2024-04-28 Gzira United W 2-154.4 1178 1324 18.33% 28.13% 53.54%-1.02 +21.1 29
2024-04-28 @ Santa Lucia L 1-254.4 1324 1178 53.54% 28.13% 18.33%+1.02 -21.1 30
2024-04-28 Mosta D 0-047.5 1262 1229 39.80% 29.64% 30.56%+0.05 -0.9 31
2024-04-28 @ Balzan D 0-047.5 1229 1262 30.56% 29.64% 39.80%-0.05 +0.9 28
2024-04-28 Sirens D 2-259.5 1323 1096 61.33% 26.07% 12.61%+1.21 -3.5 35
2024-04-28 @ Birkirkara D 2-259.5 1096 1323 12.61% 26.07% 61.33%-1.21 +3.5 16
2024-04-28 Valletta W 4-037.8 1258 1239 37.81% 29.70% 32.49%-0.04 +54.2 35
2024-04-28 @ Naxxar Lions L 0-437.8 1239 1258 32.49% 29.70% 37.81%+0.04 -54.2 24
2024-05-02 Gudja United W 5-237.2 1185 929 63.85% 25.15% 11.00%+1.38 +11.9 27
2024-05-02 @ Valletta L 2-537.2 929 1185 11.00% 25.15% 63.85%-1.38 -11.9 6
2024-05-02 Sirens W 3-029.7 1390 1100 66.54% 24.02% 9.43%+1.59 +13.9 50
2024-05-02 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-329.7 1100 1390 9.43% 24.02% 66.54%-1.59 -13.9 16
2024-05-03 Balzan L 0-150.1 1425 1261 55.41% 27.74% 16.86%+0.83 -23.0 43
2024-05-03 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-050.1 1261 1425 16.86% 27.74% 55.41%-0.83 +23.0 34
2024-05-03 Birkirkara D 2-259.0 1199 1319 20.63% 28.63% 50.74%-0.87 +2.0 30
2024-05-03 @ Santa Lucia D 2-259.0 1319 1199 50.74% 28.63% 20.63%+0.87 -2.0 36
2024-05-03 Floriana W 3-154.8 1303 1469 16.66% 27.68% 55.66%-1.14 +37.8 33
2024-05-03 @ Gzira United L 1-354.8 1469 1303 55.66% 27.68% 16.66%+1.14 -37.8 57
2024-05-03 Naxxar Lions W 2-044.1 1229 1312 24.51% 29.20% 46.29%-0.64 +37.3 31
2024-05-03 @ Mosta L 0-244.1 1312 1229 46.29% 29.20% 24.51%+0.64 -37.2 35
2024-05-04 Hibernians D 1-160.2 1619 1251 72.05% 21.27% 6.68%+2.05 -6.5 62
2024-05-04 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-160.2 1251 1619 6.68% 21.27% 72.05%-2.05 +6.5 35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-01-21 10.10% Santa Lucia 1103 2 @ Birkirkara 1378 1
2 2024-01-06 12.46% Santa Lucia 1079 2 @ Gzira United 1308 1
3 2024-04-14 12.59% Sirens 1052 2 @ Naxxar Lions 1279 1
4 2024-03-16 13.54% Marsaxlokk 1332 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1543 1
5 2024-01-21 14.55% Gzira United 1284 1 @ Floriana 1479 0
6 2023-12-02 14.70% @ Birkirkara 1297 3 Hamrun Spartans 1491 0
7 2023-12-02 14.70% @ Santa Lucia 1080 1 Mosta 1273 0
8 2023-09-24 15.61% @ Sliema Wanderers 1176 1 Valletta 1356 0
9 2024-04-20 15.78% @ Marsaxlokk 1382 1 Floriana 1560 0
10 2024-05-03 16.66% @ Gzira United 1303 3 Floriana 1469 1
11 2024-05-03 16.86% Balzan 1261 1 @ Marsaxlokk 1425 0
12 2024-02-10 17.42% Santa Lucia 1106 1 @ Balzan 1263 0
13 2024-04-28 18.33% @ Santa Lucia 1178 2 Gzira United 1324 1
14 2024-03-14 18.52% Naxxar Lions 1229 2 @ Birkirkara 1373 0
15 2024-03-02 19.09% Naxxar Lions 1187 2 @ Hibernians 1324 0
16 2024-03-03 19.31% Mosta 1217 2 @ Marsaxlokk 1352 1
17 2023-11-26 20.40% @ Naxxar Lions 1215 2 Birkirkara 1338 0
18 2023-09-27 21.05% Sliema Wanderers 1199 3 @ Mosta 1315 0
19 2023-10-21 21.10% Mosta 1259 2 @ Birkirkara 1374 0
20 2024-04-21 21.62% @ Mosta 1194 3 Hibernians 1305 1
21 2023-11-04 22.76% Marsaxlokk 1277 2 @ Birkirkara 1376 0
22 2024-02-17 23.43% @ Santa Lucia 1129 1 Naxxar Lions 1222 0
23 2024-03-16 23.71% @ Santa Lucia 1176 2 Valletta 1266 0
24 2024-02-17 23.95% @ Mosta 1218 1 Valletta 1306 0
25 2023-10-29 24.14% @ Sliema Wanderers 1248 1 Gzira United 1334 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-27 67.58 Hamrun Spartans 5 1551 37.27% @ Floriana 0 1536 33.02% 29.71%
2 2023-09-16 66.48 Hibernians 4 1307 27.62% @ Gzira United 0 1363 42.90% 29.48%
3 2023-12-02 66.00 @ Birkirkara 3 1297 14.70% Hamrun Spartans 0 1491 58.30% 27.00%
4 2023-10-01 58.10 @ Naxxar Lions 4 1131 34.44% Santa Lucia 0 1136 35.83% 29.73%
5 2023-09-27 57.97 Sliema Wanderers 3 1199 21.05% @ Mosta 0 1315 50.25% 28.70%
6 2024-04-28 54.19 @ Naxxar Lions 4 1258 37.81% Valletta 0 1239 32.49% 29.70%
7 2023-10-01 46.39 Gzira United 6 1277 45.05% @ Gudja United 1 1204 25.63% 29.32%
8 2023-11-26 44.14 Gzira United 3 1315 34.82% @ Mosta 0 1317 35.45% 29.73%
9 2023-09-15 42.86 @ Marsaxlokk 5 1226 40.15% Naxxar Lions 1 1190 30.22% 29.63%
10 2024-03-14 42.00 Naxxar Lions 2 1229 18.52% @ Birkirkara 0 1373 53.29% 28.18%
11 2023-10-29 41.84 Birkirkara 3 1335 37.41% @ Balzan 0 1319 32.88% 29.71%
12 2024-03-02 41.52 Naxxar Lions 2 1187 19.09% @ Hibernians 0 1324 52.60% 28.31%
13 2024-02-25 41.16 Santa Lucia 4 1149 48.46% @ Gudja United 0 1049 22.59% 28.95%
14 2023-09-17 40.52 Floriana 4 1296 48.95% @ Santa Lucia 0 1191 22.16% 28.89%
15 2023-11-26 40.43 @ Naxxar Lions 2 1215 20.40% Birkirkara 0 1338 51.01% 28.59%
16 2023-10-21 39.87 Mosta 2 1259 21.10% @ Birkirkara 0 1374 50.19% 28.71%
17 2023-11-04 38.57 Marsaxlokk 2 1277 22.76% @ Birkirkara 0 1376 48.26% 28.98%
18 2024-03-16 37.84 @ Santa Lucia 2 1176 23.71% Valletta 0 1266 47.18% 29.11%
19 2024-05-03 37.78 @ Gzira United 3 1303 16.66% Floriana 1 1469 55.66% 27.68%
20 2024-01-27 37.75 Hamrun Spartans 7 1470 56.08% @ Balzan 1 1300 16.34% 27.58%
21 2024-05-03 37.26 @ Mosta 2 1229 24.51% Naxxar Lions 0 1312 46.29% 29.20%
22 2023-09-23 35.19 @ Floriana 2 1337 27.40% Birkirkara 0 1395 43.13% 29.47%
23 2023-10-22 34.44 Balzan 2 1284 28.48% @ Hibernians 0 1333 41.98% 29.54%
24 2024-04-21 34.17 @ Mosta 3 1194 21.62% Hibernians 1 1305 49.58% 28.80%
25 2023-12-17 33.69 Sliema Wanderers 4 1294 39.51% @ Naxxar Lions 1 1263 30.83% 29.65%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-02-18 61.9 @ Floriana 2 1493 63.61% Balzan 2 1240 11.15% 25.24%
2 2024-03-16 61.0 Marsaxlokk 2 1332 13.54% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1543 59.95% 26.51%
3 2024-05-04 60.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1619 72.05% Hibernians 1 1251 6.68% 21.27%
4 2024-04-28 59.5 @ Birkirkara 2 1323 61.33% Sirens 2 1096 12.61% 26.07%
5 2024-05-03 59.0 @ Santa Lucia 2 1199 20.63% Birkirkara 2 1319 50.74% 28.63%
6 2024-04-14 58.9 @ Hibernians 2 1306 46.83% Valletta 2 1219 24.03% 29.14%
7 2023-11-25 58.7 @ Gudja United 2 1151 21.92% Balzan 2 1258 49.22% 28.85%
8 2024-03-02 57.1 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1530 65.08% Valletta 1 1259 10.27% 24.65%
9 2024-01-21 56.8 Santa Lucia 2 1103 10.10% @ Birkirkara 1 1378 65.37% 24.53%
10 2023-11-05 56.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1485 56.30% Mosta 1 1313 16.18% 27.52%
11 2024-04-20 56.5 @ Marsaxlokk 1 1382 15.78% Floriana 0 1560 56.83% 27.39%
12 2024-01-06 55.9 Santa Lucia 2 1079 12.46% @ Gzira United 1 1308 61.54% 25.99%
13 2024-04-14 55.8 Sirens 2 1052 12.59% @ Naxxar Lions 1 1279 61.35% 26.06%
14 2023-10-21 55.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1481 62.31% Sliema Wanderers 1 1243 11.97% 25.72%
15 2024-05-03 54.8 @ Gzira United 3 1303 16.66% Floriana 1 1469 55.66% 27.68%
16 2023-10-21 54.6 @ Floriana 1 1436 63.10% Naxxar Lions 1 1189 11.46% 25.43%
17 2023-10-29 54.6 @ Gudja United 1 1156 10.09% Floriana 1 1431 65.38% 24.53%
18 2024-01-28 54.6 @ Hibernians 3 1317 36.45% Gzira United 2 1308 33.83% 29.72%
19 2023-10-28 54.4 @ Mosta 3 1299 36.20% Marsaxlokk 2 1291 34.07% 29.72%
20 2024-03-03 54.4 Mosta 2 1217 19.31% @ Marsaxlokk 1 1352 52.33% 28.36%
21 2024-04-28 54.4 @ Santa Lucia 2 1178 18.33% Gzira United 1 1324 53.54% 28.13%
22 2023-09-27 54.0 @ Birkirkara 1 1360 39.00% Valletta 1 1332 31.34% 29.67%
23 2024-02-25 54.0 @ Sliema Wanderers 0 1361 16.10% Hamrun Spartans 0 1534 56.41% 27.50%
24 2023-11-26 53.9 @ Valletta 1 1336 64.28% Santa Lucia 1 1074 10.74% 24.98%
25 2023-12-16 53.9 @ Birkirkara 3 1359 40.47% Gzira United 2 1321 29.91% 29.61%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-27 26.4 Sliema Wanderers 6 1378 76.35% @ Gudja United 0 941 4.91% 18.73%
2 2024-02-11 26.5 Hamrun Spartans 4 1521 77.00% @ Gudja United 0 1074 4.67% 18.33%
3 2024-03-09 27.4 Floriana 3 1509 75.65% @ Sirens 0 1084 5.18% 19.17%
4 2024-03-03 28.8 @ Floriana 5 1503 79.71% Gudja United 1 1007 3.74% 16.55%
5 2024-02-18 29.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1529 75.22% Sirens 0 1112 5.35% 19.43%
6 2024-03-10 29.5 Hibernians 3 1283 65.80% @ Gudja United 0 1002 9.85% 24.35%
7 2024-04-14 29.7 @ Birkirkara 2 1316 70.61% Gudja United 0 969 7.34% 22.05%
8 2024-05-02 29.7 @ Sliema Wanderers 3 1390 66.54% Sirens 0 1100 9.43% 24.02%
9 2023-09-23 29.9 Hamrun Spartans 4 1418 65.00% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1147 10.31% 24.68%
10 2024-04-13 30.4 @ Floriana 4 1545 69.94% Mosta 0 1209 7.67% 22.40%
11 2024-02-18 30.6 @ Gzira United 3 1307 62.57% Gudja United 0 1066 11.80% 25.63%
12 2024-02-25 30.8 Gzira United 4 1324 60.51% @ Sirens 0 1107 13.16% 26.34%
13 2024-01-27 30.9 @ Floriana 2 1455 69.29% Santa Lucia 0 1128 7.99% 22.72%
14 2023-12-10 31.0 @ Marsaxlokk 3 1334 61.67% Santa Lucia 0 1104 12.38% 25.95%
15 2024-02-25 31.1 Floriana 3 1489 66.37% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1201 9.53% 24.10%
16 2023-11-05 31.3 @ Floriana 3 1426 62.85% Sirens 0 1181 11.62% 25.53%
17 2023-10-01 31.5 Hamrun Spartans 4 1458 62.52% @ Sirens 0 1217 11.83% 25.65%
18 2024-03-17 31.6 @ Balzan 2 1248 64.23% Gudja United 0 988 10.77% 25.00%
19 2024-03-10 31.7 Hamrun Spartans 4 1525 66.28% @ Mosta 0 1238 9.58% 24.14%
20 2023-09-27 32.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1438 60.20% Gudja United 0 1224 13.37% 26.44%
21 2024-01-28 32.7 Valletta 3 1296 55.72% @ Sirens 0 1129 16.62% 27.66%
22 2023-12-09 33.1 Floriana 3 1470 60.89% @ Mosta 0 1249 12.90% 26.21%
23 2024-01-20 33.1 Valletta 3 1270 54.38% @ Gudja United 0 1116 17.66% 27.96%
24 2024-02-04 33.1 Hibernians 2 1331 60.00% @ Santa Lucia 0 1120 13.50% 26.50%
25 2024-04-06 33.4 Floriana 2 1537 67.95% @ Valletta 0 1228 8.67% 23.38%